Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

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Post Post #1118 (isolation #0) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:14 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Hey all, I'm Chris. I'm experienced off site, only my third game here however so still getting to grips with some of the terms and whatnot. I have health issues which mean sometimes I miss work and have to do a lot of overtime to catch up at other points, so my activity will vary day-to-day but once in a game I rarely think I'd need to V/LA or replace out. This is all NAI, but just a get-to-know and hi-there hello! o/


I've skimmed the thread and plan on reading through more completely late today (probably skipping work due to illness today). I see Smith got lynched d1, then no nk. Then it seems it's wagons on Ali/Grey for today. Anyone got bullet points for me to look at the important stuff in detail, if not I'll just read through the thread in order and then ISO Grey/Ali to see what I can see on the wagons. Just came out of a game with Ali so hoping that might help read him quickly this game.
In post 1115, Alisae wrote:Chris I'm town sheep me.
Hey Ali! :D I'll consider it after I get caught up - if I think you're not scum. :P
Who are your top reads right now? Why did your wagon form?
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #1) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:40 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 230, mastina wrote:I would like to note that mhsmith is doing something which I also noted from oldwino. The two of them, above all other players, are guilty of this cardinal sin. I'm not going to pull up a quote from either player to give an indication of what this is. But you might be able to guess--namely, by which posts of theirs I am
not
responding to.

Anyone care to guess what they have in common?
Ok read to pg38 or so, got a few interesting read but my oh my this game was a crapfest. Smith was a really bad lynch d1, nobody listened to his side, and to top it all off RC pushed it through over a scum read because we needed a lynch but without even building a case on their scumslot. Town threw my last game hard, d1/d2 was terrible and made it easy to manipulate - not allowing it to happen in this one.

Ali is a bad place to vote imo - I'd like to see that wagon fold. Not too sure on ThinkBig (Greyslot iirc) but probably also bad place. Reasons incoming - up to people if you want lots of posts or a wall, if you want reads with little feedback or if you want my notes (though d1 notes are a mishmash of "wtf are they doing" and "well that's just silly" from far more slots than can be scum).

Going to read the final 20ish pages, and want to do 2 ISO in particular. Give me a few hours and I'll give my case on my CaughtScum and probable buddy.

PEDIT: Still throwing up so never mind, give me 45 mins instead because I no longer have to cook or eat dinner.
Also don't think it's on anyone but...
UNVOTE: ALL
At least until I get the ISOs done and see if I missed anything important.
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Post Post #1141 (isolation #2) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:51 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Okay nothing changed from my readthrough of the final pages, everyone basically stopped scumhunting with 9 days to go... REAL BAD FOR TOWN! So if y'all are town, don't wait for the flip, but look at other players and try to see if they feel town or scummy - if it's neither then pressure them with a vote, we do not want the day to end this early.
In post 1122, Alisae wrote:
In post 1118, ChrisOrmie wrote:Hey Ali! I'll consider it after I get caught up - if I think you're not scum.
Who are your top reads right now? Why did your wagon form?
Grey is scum, mastina is scum by PoE.
As for my wagon forming tbh idunno? Scum need a counterwagon I guess.
Also RC put me in a tough position and I can tell he wanted to replace out because this game is intolerable.
Deathtunnels left and right man.
Also really bad for Town, they are distracting and tough to read. Learned this in my first game here the hard way. Re-evaluate everything, stop holding onto confBias, or the scum that d1 won your trust will slip through when they start doing bad stuff later - or the town that you hated in RVS will get lynched despite being amazingly good d2.
In post 1045, Alisae wrote:
In post 1034, mastina wrote:-words about pre-flip associations-
Remind me again how I'm supposed to find assoications without flips?
One of a few real good posts. Pre-flip associations are really bad it's total WIFOM, and not a great way to find scum - post flips are great. In nearly every game I've read on here (in the 200-300 range) it's a widely accepted fact. I find it odd that Mastina (especially as IC) would try and paint Ali as scummy for not doing it. Speaking of Mastina...

@Dogwatch: I can see you're heavily sheeping on Mastina. Do you have reasons (please share), and if blind sheeping then why?

Spoiler: Terrible notes, but d1/early d2 wasn't easy to follow
Not many people seemed to want to scumhunt which is a bad sign. RC looked good early and then fizzled way out, Smith was doing a great job as psuedo-IC and with the wagon on him he went full obvTown, and Mastina did some good IC posting. Her other posts were difficult to understand as she held back a lot of information - could be playstyle (or IC trying to force people to think/interact) but really don't like this behaviour - almost as hard to gel with as RC at times! :lol: Smith vs Grey seemed TvT and it was going that way until Mastina decided to join the debate when it had seemingly resolved itself. Also, early unease on Mastina's slot as the IC and early posts come off very different to her posts during her push on Smith. I read a different tone, some flawed logic, and a disconnect in her thought process when compared to the earlier posts. It could be playstyle related, or early gambits, but the feel was off and she's never claimed a gambit.

Icy lurks hard but throws out an uncountered BP claim, so my unease with this slot is playstyle related. In fact I'd thought they had replaced out until 483-4. NewbTown does seem to lurk with power roles quite often (I know I sure as hell have in the past!), but a few posts were good enough to get a town-lean anyway when they joined discussions. Read list is blind and I found it strange as I didn't see RC as null (town-lean for me), and why they put Smith top when the rest of town disliked the slot was confusing.

I liked Dark and Pieg's entrances, both asking the questions I would have if I'd replaced in at that point. NAI more than likely, but I could see their thought process which allowed me to read them a bit better. Dark however did confuse me with his debate on playstyle with Smith. I agree with Smith's points, and in fact think he's one of the best on the site from a teaching standpoint. Seriously - go read his wiki, past games, etc... you'll learn a heck of a lot. It screamed TvT, just a difference of opinion, but for a while I doubted the claim because of this exchange. Really had to force myself to re-read it again to feel comfortable though. Can see why Dark got wagonned - 565-572 isn't great, and interested if 596 was a gambit or real. Dark seems to have a different playstyle than I like, but it's been effective so happy not to let it bug me.

495 is lovely imo. Great tone, can read the logic, easy to follow thought process. This is what I like to see. Really hate that Smith went out the game early, because I'd love to see a ton more of these in here. The Smith wagon is infuriating as he's throwing good content out there, yet every page or two there is another vote creeping on. Seems to build over time, and nobody builds other wagons despite RC (I think others too) having a stronger d1 scumread. Scum probably either pushed the wagon, or took advantage of it, but a huge asset to town was lost d1 because people didn't want to pursue anything else. 641-2 are so good... shame that people didn't feel the town vibes Smith was throwing down here.

638 is a real puzzling readlist imo. Worrying as it comes from an un-counterclaimed power role. At this point in my read I had it almost reversed, and had honestly forgotten DogWatch was in here... far too many lurkers and replacements in this game. :facepalm: Had to go and ISO to see where these reads came from and it was tough to tell. Had to re-evaluate my own reads afterwards due to this slot being confTown, but came to the conclusion we were just reading the game in different ways.

796-7 are huge towntells. No reasons to vote on Smith except if people are just sheeping on the wagon or are they being led by scum?

833 @Grey explain "softing" please. Not really sure what this was in reference to.

837-8 / 840 - RC takes a dive here in my lists. Read a lot of his games and it's not entirely AI from what I can see, but the fact he has a scumread he didn't build a case on and didn't want to vote is poor play. Willing to lynch Smith just to have a lynch d1 can be acceptable if you have no reads, deadline approaching, and have to sheep a townread... but that's not the case - it's badplay. Seeing how RC replaced out, I read it as more he got frustrated (can't blame him) and bored with the game (can blame him) but this really hurt town (really blame him). Sadly, I think it came from TownRC based off his earlier tone. Glad at least Ali is the replacement as I just completed a game with him and should be able to read them a bit easier than RC! :lol: Also, twilight RC vs Smith is misguided TvT and it looks like they realised it a little too late.

NK goes on BP which is interesting. Not what I'd expect tbh, but doesn't offer a lot of analysis. Only other possibility I see is if scum didn't take any actions. I can't think of a reason for this (outside of WIFOM bs) so ruling it out.

894 from Ali isn't my favourite. Leads to 899 and 900 which is another interesting exchange though. Still fairly NAI on the whole unless we have a good read on either (not strong on either slot atm outside of PoE, personally), and similar to RC feels like a frustration replace from a game that has been anything but engaging. @Ali do you really buy scumGrey replacing out with little pressure - and also pursuing the engage with RC? Seems unlikely from my pov, but you do claim to know (and read) them very well. Why does it make sense to you?

910 is where I really like Dark for the first time. Sheeped Mastina d1, town was flipped, tracked the main wagon pusher. Not my style of posting, but at least can understand the process at this point. Dislike that no town asked the claimed tracker for a result though, feel that should have been the priority at dawn.

916 is Wino's first contribution of note imo. Good post, open thought, but not sure on reasoning. Still get a small town vibe from here. 918-9 also feels good. Ali does love a gambit, and although I disagree with Wino's theory, I like the reasoning and it follows a good path. I especially like the fact they don't back off when Ali reveals it was shitposting, feels like a true read.


Spoiler: Then comes the fun part... MEGA IMPORTANT!!!
936 - First read feels good, something nagging at me but put it down to confBias as I'm suspecting Mastina at this point. Try and move on but a post or two later and I can't ignore the need to re-read. So, IF we take Mastina's word for it (HUGE IF, especially as I am reading her as scum), and IF we accept her read on Grey too... well that makes the game unloseable - if we lynch Ali and he flips town. So two assumptions, plus a hopeful mislynch, puts us in a game winning scenario. WHY IS THIS GIVEN ANY CREDENCE AT ALL?!?!?!?! FFS this is a terrible post, with terrible logic, based on terrible assumptions that require HUGE leaps of faith. Not only that but I've not gone into the fact that it only works out if you also assume that Ali flipping town somehow means that DogWatch would also be confirmed as town... that's a bigger leap of faith and nonsensical bs than the rest put together.

The very worst bit of this is that people are seeminly sheeping Mastina on this, when it could be (and does look and feel, to me) like Scum trying to get two mislynches off (Ali and possibly one other seeing as the theory would still be 'proven' at that stage), before possibly getting lynched herself. So we go from 6-2 to 3-2 if we follow the plan (ML, NK, ML)... then a NK gives Scum a perfect victory. STOP SHEEPING MASTINA. STOP GOING FOR AN INSANE PLAN. STOP BEING ANTI-TOWN.

Mastina was scummy before this, but seriously... why is nobody questioning this at all?! This is terrible logic, terrible play, and can easily hand scum the win. If anyone wants to question me on this then lets do it - but explain why I'm not right in thinking we need to assume 3 unknown slots need to be confTown without flipping for this to work. Either that or explain why I'm wrong that if Mastina is scum, how two mislynches do not hand her victory before the entire plan plays out. Get rid of confBias, re-read Mastina's ISO, look at her d1 interactions with Smith and show me where you read him as scummy and Mastina is town.


PEDIT: Ok took way longer to do post tags, it's why I hate the catchup required when replacing in. Expected to have this up way earlier but today wasn't a good one irl, sorry for the delay.
Spoiler: Response to Mastina
mastina wrote:
In post 1128, ChrisOrmie wrote:Ok read to pg38 or so, got a few interesting read but my oh my this game was a crapfest. Smith was a really bad lynch d1, nobody listened to his side, and to top it all off RC pushed it through over a scum read because we needed a lynch but without even building a case on their scumslot. Town threw my last game hard, d1/d2 was terrible and made it easy to manipulate - not allowing it to happen in this one.
For what it's worth, and this is actually one of the reasons I was scumreading oldwino, I consider it a scumtell to complain about the game prior to your replace-in. Rather reliably, town tend to not bother with this because they know it happened and know there's no use mentioning it. Instead, they will make jokes, instead they will laugh it off, and when they do pull attention towards the bad play, it will be to highlight which plays were scum, and explain which plays (while bad) were town.

Scum, on the other hand, will continuously try to make people feel shitty for their mistakes. Scum will try to take the "moral high ground" by always claiming they are superior to the rest of the players, simply because clearly, they would not have made that mistake, and they vow that they will keep the town from making the mistake.

Mentioning prior games, which oldwino did religiously, is a variant of this. (Thus the early scumread on him.) By constantly referencing a prior game, you are using it as a crutch. You are trying to frame a narrative: "This event happened in this game, therefore this is true of our current game", whereas in reality, every single game is different and frankly should be treated appropriately so, with them MOSTLY self-contained. (There's room for player meta, and there's room for moderator meta, but by and large, every game is different.)

Aside from that, there's more with this post I take issue with, though:
Ali is a bad place to vote imo - I'd like to see that wagon fold. Not too sure on ThinkBig (Greyslot iirc) but probably also bad place.
This is basically calling the scumteam two of mastina/oldwino/DogWatch, thanks to Icy and Darklyn being conftown. Alisae's stance that the Grey slot is scum and ignoring associatives is pretty bad...but whichever of the three scumteams Chris has in mind is arguably even worse.
I cite past games, take the moral high ground, AND complain about a catchup being crazy when replacing in, as both alignments - sometimes just for WIFOM or gambits. I mention most of it here due to my case on you and how scary it seems you are leading town when your plan is either mistakenly flawed, or coming from scum. I need people to read what I wrote otherwise this game has a real chance for scum to win real quick. Too many people sheeping you for some reason, for me not to point out that this game can be a perfect scum win easier and quicker than a town win if we follow your scenario - actually with only 1 assumption too (that you are scum) rather than the three you'd need us to take.

My scumteams atm are actually Mastina and one of DogWatch or Grey/TBslot. I want way more feedback on TB from Ali/Icy/Dark before I decide how likely that partnership is. D1 was a cluster, and d2 could be worse if people don't question you and your plan a lot closer imo. If you are town, you go revisit your plan, take out the assumptions and see how easily it falls apart if you have even just 1 of your reads wrong.


Spoiler: Another bad post in the pedit:
mastina wrote:
In post 1083, Icy wrote:It seems to me that the town learns so much more from a Alisae flip than a Lemon flip.
This is also true though, since the slot hasn't produced actual content basically all game. The closest was pieg, and even there, not really much. pieg asked lots of questions, but didn't really do much with them. (The closest we get is casting shade on oldwino, which reduces the chance of the newbie-scumteam. Also, looks like pieg knew oldwino was town.)
Pieg only knows Wino is town if Pieg is scum. Why does scumPieg point out something Wino shouldn't do (and I fully agree with the advice - d1 policy lynching on activity levels should be heavily frowned on). I don't see the benefit when nobody else was pointing it out, and nobody was paying any real attention to the game for them to gain towncred. Apply Occam's Razor and we get someone trying to explain what is good and bad play in a newbie game. NAI, and should be encouraged, not painted as scummy behaviour imo.


Spoiler: Also:
mastina wrote:
In post 1045, Alisae wrote:Remind me again how I'm supposed to find assoications without flips?
By using common fucking sense.

It's called basic scumhunting.

It's called basic partner interactions.

It's called looking at interactions between players and figuring out which are possible scum and which are not.
You really saying that pre-flip associations have any worth? Post-flip is basic scumhunting, but pre-flip is just speculation and fluff. This is bad advice, and the second time you've said this.


Spoiler: Finally:
Alisae wrote:Yeah I believe scum!Grey would get into a fight with RC
What makes you believe that? Is this purely from meta, or something else? Anyone picking a fight with RC needs to rethink their strategy imo. :lol:
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Post Post #1142 (isolation #3) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:53 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Sorry for the above post, tried to break it up as best I can without making 20 or so individual posts. People hate that, people hate walls... I write verbose.

Anyway, right now I think there needs to be more of these:-
VOTE: Mastina
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Post Post #1143 (isolation #4) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:56 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1138, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1137, mastina wrote:
In post 1113, ThinkBig wrote:Welcome Christ
Can I just comment on how appropriate this comment is with your Amish avatar?
It is actually Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the Rebbe of the Chabad movement. And I meant Chris, not Christ. I hate auto wreck.

Anyway I am still reading the game and should have content to produce tomorrow.
I'm guessing auto correct didn't want to take the blame and so changed this one as well? :lol:
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Post Post #1146 (isolation #5) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:00 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1144, Icy wrote:Welcome to the game Chris.

What do you think of Greys pre-night game. He posted that he didn't want to vote a veteran, but voted Smith without hesitation.

What about RC's post claim of Grey being scum?

Any thoughts on why Dark is still alive?
Grey was real good in parts, but also seemed to ask stupid questions. Tonally felt like they were trying to provoke content and engage people, especially to come out of RVS. The thing I really disliked was his read on the whole tracker counterclaim theory, that didn't seem a gambit at all. It's a slot I have a town-lean on, but Ali/RC is a slot I have a fairly big townread on and they are certain they found scum. Need more info on the slot to read it properly.

RC's claim on GreyScum was interesting, not sure where it came from. RC does like to throw things out there and see how it lands, so wasn't that surprised. Might be based off the 'softing' that Grey mentioned, not sure if TB can explain that or not, but I took it and the counterclaim theory to mean they might be softclaiming Tracker which would explain RC's stance. It's why I wanted Grey to explain that, but he replaced out.

Scum can open the game up and decide who they want on any given day if you remove the BP ability. Leaving the tracker on the board is a terrible move though, I'd expect that role to be taken out of the game as it's the best way Town can find Scum. Possible WIFOM with experienced scum trying to look like newbScum, or if Mastina is scum then her sporadic absences may mean a newbie partner might have done it without her.

Thoughts on my Mastina case please, and her terrible lynch theory. Would appreciate reasons why I'm wrong, or a vote on her too.
In post 1145, Darklyn wrote:ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz
Getting an opinion on a slot from someone who claims they know them exceptionally well is not sheeping. Neither is voting someone different to them. Care to explain why you think this is?

You also you ignored my case on Mastina and the terrible lynch plan. Why? Do you now see why Mastina going nowhere last night is NAI, and doesn't make her any likelier to be town?

Come vote Mastina with me and put some pressure on a slot that is scumming up the thread.
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Post Post #1149 (isolation #6) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:05 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
No kill is bad for scum, and mod said BP wouldn't know if they'd been targeted or even if their 1-shotBP was gone. Pretty sure scum went after Icy last night.
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Post Post #1190 (isolation #7) » Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:12 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1141, ChrisOrmie wrote:
In post 936, mastina wrote:
In post 904, Darklyn wrote:@Alisae, I think the scum is in the newbie slots anyway
I have
mostly
reached this conclusion, but not all the way.

You are confirmed town for your claim.
Icy is confirmed town for Icy's claim.
I know that I am town.
I am very heavily townreading the Grey slot.
We also know that mhsmith was town.

The only possible non-newbie scum is the RadiantCowbells slot.
The only possible newbie scum are oldwino, lemonator, and DogWatch.
If you suppose the townslip from DogWatch is genuine (it's not impossible for DogWatch to fake, but incredibly unlikely unless RadiantCowbells in the pregame gave that instruction/advice to DogWatch since I don't see an all-newbie scumteam thinking of the slip and I would be
incredibly
impressed by DogWatch generating it on her own), then that leaves three slots for potential scum:
Alisae (SE), oldwino, and lemonator.

I feel we should lynch within there today. I think an Alisae townflip would firmly clear DogWatch, leaving the only possible scumteam as oldwino/lemonator. An Alisae scum flip is a little harder to determine, but...well. Lynching scum would be lynching scum, so obviously that would be something we'd want.

In fact, if you are willing to:
-Trust that I am town, and:
-Trust that Grey is town, then...
...I think this game is an auto-win with an Alisae lynch.

Alisae lynched, flips town:
  1. DogWatch is confirmed as town.
  2. Alisae is cleared via death.
  3. Darklyn is town via claim.
  4. Icy is town via claim.
  5. POE indicates oldwino and lemonator are the scumteam.
Alisae lynched, flips scum:
  1. DogWatch, oldwino, and lemonator are possible scum.
  2. We have one mislynch.
  3. We have three scumspects.
  4. We can mislynch one time, and because there are only two possible scum after a mislynch, we win.
In fact, I think the above still works with an oldwino/lemonator lynch, so long as Alisae is lynched tomorrow, because if oldwino/lemonator are both town, Alisae/DogWatch are scum (thus, lynch Alisae tomorrow); if one of them is scum, then the other scum is either the other of them or is Alisae (thus, lynch Alisae tomorrow).

We want to avoid:
-Mislynching Grey,
-Mislynching the PRs,
-or ideally mislynching myself. (I probably need to step up my game and convince you I am town because the game is on a lockdown town win if I'm not mislynched.)
-Mislynching BOTH of oldwino/lemonator, leaving us endgamed by an Alisae/DogWatch scumteam.
-Mislynching one of oldwino/lemonator, then mislynching DogWatch, to be endgamed by an Alisae/other of the pair scumteam.
-Mislynching BOTH of Alisae/DogWatch, to be endgamed by an oldwino/lemonator scumteam.

So either today, or tomorrow, Alisae should be lynched. I did promise mhsmith I would review his notes if nothing else, and I have the outcome of the night to take into consideration, but for the time being:
VOTE: Alisae.

I really do think my effort today is best spent on convincing you NOT to lynch me and convincing you NOT to lynch Grey, because if I accomplish that, then you should be able to follow the above and understand where I am coming from in this.
First read feels good, something nagging at me but put it down to confBias as I'm suspecting Mastina at this point. Try and move on but a post or two later and I can't ignore the need to re-read. So, IF we take Mastina's word for it (HUGE IF, especially as I am reading her as scum), and IF we accept her read on Grey too... well that makes the game unloseable - if we lynch Ali and he flips town. So two assumptions, plus a hopeful mislynch, puts us in a game winning scenario. WHY IS THIS GIVEN ANY CREDENCE AT ALL?!?!?!?! FFS this is a terrible post, with terrible logic, based on terrible assumptions that require HUGE leaps of faith. Not only that but I've not gone into the fact that it only works out if you also assume that Ali flipping town somehow means that DogWatch would also be confirmed as town... that's a bigger leap of faith and nonsensical bs than the rest put together.

The very worst bit of this is that people are seeminly sheeping Mastina on this, when it could be (and does look and feel, to me) like Scum trying to get two mislynches off (Ali and possibly one other seeing as the theory would still be 'proven' at that stage), before possibly getting lynched herself. So we go from 6-2 to 3-2 if we follow the plan (ML, NK, ML)... then a NK gives Scum a perfect victory. STOP SHEEPING MASTINA. STOP GOING FOR AN INSANE PLAN. STOP BEING ANTI-TOWN.

Mastina was scummy before this, but seriously... why is nobody questioning this at all?! This is terrible logic, terrible play, and can easily hand scum the win. If anyone wants to question me on this then lets do it - but explain why I'm not right in thinking we need to assume 3 unknown slots need to be confTown without flipping for this to work. Either that or explain why I'm wrong that if Mastina is scum, how two mislynches do not hand her victory before the entire plan plays out. Get rid of confBias, re-read Mastina's ISO, look at her d1 interactions with Smith and show me where you read him as scummy and Mastina is town.
People are ignoring this and it's far too important not to. EXPLAIN WHY I'M WRONG, OR VOTE MASTINA. This game is infuriating.

TL;DR with bolded emphasis to show assumptions.
In post 936, mastina wrote:
I am
very heavily townreading the Grey slot.

If you suppose
the townslip from DogWatch is genuine

I think
an Alisae townflip would firmly clear DogWatch

In fact,
if you are willing
to:
-
Trust that
I am town, and:
-
Trust that
Grey is town, then...
...I think this game is an auto-win with an Alisae lynch.
Now can we stop auto-lynching Ali based on a stupid plan that relies on far too many assumptions and her own reads (which we'd all have to share, and I certainly don't)?
If Mastina is scum then not only does she get 1 mislynch in Ali, but a second one as her plan is for Ali to flip town (actually hoping for mislynches). 2 Misylynches plus a NK = Scum Win.
Plan is literally designed for scum to win quicker than town, and only 1 assumption (Mastina is scum) rather than the load that she requires ("I think", "If you suppose"...)!
This is a Scumclaim.
UNVOTE ALISAE, VOTE MASTINA.
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Post Post #1221 (isolation #8) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:17 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1209, DogWatch wrote:actually considering quitting mafia period, all it does is add stress to my life. It's not fun anymore.

and most of this community is completely toxic anyway... seriously some of the worst human beings ive ever interacted with
Please stick around! When I first found Mafia it was a quickfire, lighthearted thing that was fun. Then I moved to longer paced forum stuff and I hated it - the people, the attitude, etc. I found this place 3 years ago, played one game that I loved, but it was stressful and I walked away. I came back because there are some awesome people here and I've learned to let the game be the game, and not take the stress into rl.

Not saying it's easy, but it is worth it. Hopefully nobody takes too much offense from me in the game, and none outside it. If so send me a pm, hopefully we can work it out with no hard feelings!
oldwino wrote:And I do wonder why all of these experienced players want to play newbie games. Often, it sounds like they are here to show off and play against each other, not help us learn the game. YES, a helpful IC and couple of SE's can and should be helpful, but a few of them really overdo it - dominate the game vs. help it move along. Others, I find helpful but I'm not naming names. Enough, back to trying to figure out what's going on here re: scum and town.
I'm experienced but new to the site in terms of games played (this is my third), and it's a great way to find my feet after a long absence. However I do agree that there is a large number of experienced players in these newbie games, and it would seem offputting to quite a few new players.
Alisae wrote:Matrix6 is fun to play. Also scouting for new talent is nice
Need to be more Matrix6 games outside the newbie area imo. That would help the newbies stop getting overwhelmed by a "newbie" game with 5-6 players with 30+ game playe on this site. I'm actually hoping to mod a bunch of games (hence my playing games to qualify for it), so I'll add M6 to my list of games to throw out there.
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Post Post #1255 (isolation #9) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:33 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Breaking this up into spoilers so each point is kept to itself without filling the thread with walls and/or pages of smallposts.

Spoiler: Associations vs Interactions - or why does Mastina love contradicting herself?
In post 1222, mastina wrote:Suffice to say: fuck yes I advocate for pre-flip interactions.
Especially since I use the word, very deliberately, interactions.
Associatives I do use, but I use them with caution; Interactions I use consistently and constantly as my strongest scumhunting tool. The two are not synonymous, though I admit I often use the terms interchangeably when engaged in dialogs with others since they will use one term and I'll engage them using the term they have laid out even if the term they use is for me the other of the two. (It's a bad habit I need to break, because I should be consistent if I want to preach them being different.)
Let me get this straight: You are for pre-flip interactions being analysed. Associatives, you agree, are not synonymous with interactions. You engage others using the term they have laid out. You also agree that associatives/associations are something you use with caution.

If you think this way, but post another - that's a scumtell in my book, and something you seem to be accusing me of. I wonder if you contradict this anywhere?
In post 1034, mastina wrote:
In post 1009, Alisae wrote:I'm not looking for buddies atm or
associatives
. That'll be easier to do when we have a scumflip.
Uh-huh.

This is a very convenient excuse to overlook how few scumteams with Grey included on them are actually plausible.
So Ali mentions ASSOCIATIVES, not interactions. Then you go after him for not looking for pre-flip ASSOCIATIVES. You do not mention interactions here at all. Just possible scumteams. ScumTEAMS are found via post-flip ASSOCIATIONS. Individual scum are found with interactions. So you really don't act like you mean interactions at all.
In post 1131, mastina wrote:
In post 1045, Alisae wrote:
In post 1034, mastina wrote:-words about pre-flip
associations
-
Remind me again how I'm supposed to find
assoications
without flips?
By using common fucking sense.

It's called
basic scumhunting.


It's called basic
partner interactions
.

It's called looking at interactions between players and figuring out which are possible scum and which are not.
Ali again uses ASSOCIATIONS without flips, but you go after him again for it and call it "basic scumhunting". No Mastina, pre-flip associations are NOT "basic scumhunting" - I think you're in the minority with that thinking. At least you use INTERACTIONS for the first time, but it's "partner interactions" - so basically about finding the scumteams (not individual scum) pre-flip. Again a contradiction of your own definitions of the terms.
mastina wrote:
ChrisOrmie is painting the picture that it is bad to do pre-flip interactions analysis
, and that me advocating it is bad-teaching-at-best, scum-lying-at-worst.
Contradiction:
mhsmith, like me, was doing
and advocating
pre-flip interactions analysis.
mastina wrote:So there's DAMN FUCKING GOOD REASON I say that you absolutely are REQUIRED to do
interaction
analysis with unflipped players. You literally are left with no choice. And advocating against doing so is something which is either a scumclaim or frankly SHOULD be a scumclaim for just how ridiculously anti-town it is to throw out probabilities.

You'll note, for instance, that mhsmith, the guy who we mislynched on D1, was doing
interactions
with unflipped players. The player CHRISORNIE IS INSISTING WAS SO TOWN AND SO MUCH OF AN IC THAT MHSMITH WAS APPARENTLY MY EQUAL/SUPERIOR. Was doing
interactions
with unflipped players. Yet
ChrisOrnie is taking the stance here that they are bad.


What do you have to say to
that
?
What indeed can I saw to that? You have me cornered! Well, except for the fact that your point seems to be that I am attacking something I'm blatantly not. I'm scummy for arguing 'x', except I said 'y'. Misrepresentation 101. Not only me, but Ali too.

In which post did either of us say reading
interactions
are bad (pre or post flip)? Sorry, but I only ever said "pre-flip associations". In fact Ali only said "associations". You're the one trying to force us to argue "interactions" are bad. Neither Ali, nor I, are attacking what you are so viciously defending - whilst pointing out to the players how scummy I am for it. Interactions are pretty much the only thing you CAN judge pre-flip, and a lot of day 1's are defined either by pressure wagons, or gambits so that the players have interactions to judge - heck even RVS is designed for that. We never said interactions were bad.


Spoiler: Misrep's and false idols!
Mastina wrote:ChrisOrmie is asking for feedback from living slots on a scumteam.
Contradiction the first:
He does so in spite of insisting it is bad to do pre-flip interactions analysis.
Contradiction the second:
He is not taking into account mhsmith's content and mhsmith's reads/wishes/desires, particularly those near mhsmith's death.
I'd like to point out I never asked anyone else for a scumteam, I actually said what my most likely would be, and then clarified it by saying I wanted the two confTown and the one strongly reading the Grey/TB slot for more input on it. The only reason I even mention "scumteam" is because you tried to say what my "scumteams" were and why they were bad. I responded in kind, somewhat sarcastically using the term, refuting your point. It was more who my scumreads are - "Mastina and one of DogWatch or Grey/TBslot". I agree the meaning isn't 100% clear, my own fault there - probably should have used italics or something to make it stand out. But regardless of my meaning, you are saying I asked for feedback on a scumteam which is just not true. You like putting words and meanings into my mouth, don't you scum?

I've pointed out your contradictions on the pre-flip interaction/association debacle your pushing. Your other issue is that you think I'm not reading Smith like I should if I rate him highly. That seems to come from the fact he's doubted the likelihood of one of those teams (Mastina+Grey):
Mastina wrote:
ChrisOrmie wrote:
Mastina wrote:This is basically calling the scumteam two of mastina/oldwino/DogWatch, thanks to Icy and Darklyn being conftown. Alisae's stance that the Grey slot is scum and ignoring associatives is pretty bad...but whichever of the three scumteams Chris has in mind is arguably even worse.
My scumteams atm are actually Mastina and one of DogWatch or Grey/TBslot.
And why are you ignoring the input of dead flipped town on how likely the partnership is? Specifically, you say how good mhsmith's play was. You say how obvtown his play was. You cite, you reference, how good he is at every step of the way:
so why are you ignoring his actual fucking CONTENT?
I'm not infallible, and neither is Smith - I believe I pointed him out for his explanation's and thought process (ie go read his wiki - full of where he messed up but explains it in detail and betters himself for next time... we need a TON more of this on the site imo), not because he's a godlike mafia being that is never wrong (seriously read his wiki, he's often saying how bad he played or why his reads were wrong :lol:). I liked his play d1 when he was under pressure, and I don't know why RC didn't read the town vibes. I think the best way to find town on day one is to wagon people and see how they react, the tone and attitude usually goes a long way to helping narrow the scumpool down. From the outside the interaction seemed TvT to me (another reason I townread the Ali/RC slot - not just Ali, but RC too, the slot has been towning it up). You seem to be saying here that ignoring Smith's reasons for why you and GreyTBslot cannot be scum together contradicts my respect for him. Here is his read on the situation:
In post 29, mhsmith0 wrote:
In post 28, -Grey- wrote: The only valid argument on this issue is the one our IC presented in
Also grey has apparently spewed me town if he turns out to be scum, unless you think he'd fake derp clear a connection to his buddy (and it would need to be super intentional unless he's the sort who'd totally ignore what his buddy is saying in thread). Also grey/Mastina unlikely scum buddies for the same reason, unless one of them is the sort to suggest a fake derp clear sort of thing there ( I admit to not being familiar enough with her to *know* that she wouldn't do that as a pregame strategy, but again it seems unlikely - I'd also think it totally odd for scum!grey to flagrantly ignore what someone voting on scum!mastina is saying, not so much because I know him in partuclar as because I wouldn't expect it of much of anyone).
So Grey can't be scum with Mastina because they'd have needed to suggest a "fake derp clear" pre-game? Possible - unless you consider that since Smith acts like an IC even when he's not, that Grey just thought that he was and made an honest mistake. Occam's razor suggests to me that it's the most likely scenario, and the only one I can understand the logic of. It's a strange gambit by Grey if he's scum - it's even stranger if he's town. The only benefit seems to come (by Smith's suggestion) if Grey is scum with either Smith or Mastina and are setting up a WIFOM gambit. I don't see the logic or benefit behind drawing attention to a scumpartner like this, early in the game, with such a bold and unlikely plan. So if this is an honest mistake of not realising who was IC for this game, as it seems to be that way, then it's NAI and does not rule out either scumteam as a possibility to me.

Just because I love the way Smith thinks, and his self-analysis, does not mean I always agree with him, nor should I still sheep him when I see flaws in his thinking. ScumGrey does not mean TownMastina or TownSmith at all. TownGrey does not mean ScumMastina or ScumSmith either. It's the definition of NotAlignmentIndicative.


@Mastina: I understand you're scared your wagon grew and dismantled the one you build on Ali so quickly - and you really should be - but please stop contradicting yourself, and stop misrepresenting me. I'm not going to let you get away with that kind of crap. :P

Now that I've dealt with caughtScum, can people actually give me reads on the TB/DogWatch slots? I am fairly certain the other scum in in this pile, and it's time we sorted through it!

@TB - Who is top of your readlist, and who is bottom? Why do you think Alisae is scum, not town who is wrong about you?
@OldWino - What do you think of the DogWatch-slot?
@DogWatch - You seem similar to me (experienced offsite, newbie here), but I'm finding it tough to see your thought process. Can you walk me through your read on your pick of Mastina or Ali (or both slots)?

Spoiler: My current reads
{TOWN}
Icy, Dark (both uncc'd PR)
{TOWNLEAN}
Ali (RC and Ali's tone, scumhunting, RC vs Smith interaction), Wino (scumhunting, good theories, tone, gut feel, good questions and analysis, not around enough)
{NULL}
Dog (good questions, disappears, difficult to read)
{SCUMLEAN}
TB (Grey's "softing"/tracker-claim-advice/meta-debate, tone of slot, TB's reactions to Ali's wagon dismantle)
{SCUM}
Mastina (Bad lynch theory, contradictions, misreps, setting up mislynches, tonal disconnect)
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Post Post #1257 (isolation #10) » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:54 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1256, Alisae wrote:Dog townslipped like 20 times I really don't see how you aren't TRing that slot.
ISO'd them three times. Some good posts, none I can't see big scum motivation for faking. In my experience 'Scumslips' are more often made by town, 'Townslips' are fairly often faked by scum. I treat them as NAI unless there is more to back it up.

When sorting slots I normally go off tone, matching intent to content, and being able to follow someone's thought process. Dog has good tone but not a ton of posts, can't get inside their head to see the thought process, and without that I can't really tell the intent behind the content. I can see what my town motivation for those posts might be, and what my scum motivation might be. Dog is experienced but new here (like me) so I can put myself in her shoes, but without more to go off, I can't judge her intent.

I really need more content from them, something I can follow and see if it feels genuine or is manufactured.
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Post Post #1288 (isolation #11) » Sat Mar 25, 2017 8:37 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

oldwino wrote:I for one trust your leans and votes, although I am not 100% townconf of Chris, but like you said, he's not in any apparent danger now anyway.
I'm usually a paranoid player regardless of alignment. :lol: I always feel like I'm in danger - it kinda helps tbh, makes me more proactive which seems to help my game. Means I get stuck in tunnels sometimes, and am very defensive at others (both feed into each other sadly). Trying to work on that aspect of my game though.
In post 1285, Icy wrote:
In post 1248, mastina wrote:
You assume much. I haven't commented on the tracker thing because there's no need to. Darklyn is both right and wrong. It
does
reduce the chance I am scum. It also does not
eliminate
the chance I am scum. With two scum alive, there's a 50% chance of catching the killer, so there's a 50% chance that a no-track result would indicate a player is town. This result can be used to augment analysis, namely, pairs, and who the likely killer in a given scumteam is:

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-Grey scumteam?
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-oldwino scumteam? (The answer is mastina, eliminating this team.)

Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-RC/Alisae scumteam? (The answer is more likely mastina, eliminating this team.)
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-DogWatch scumteam?
Who is the most likely to submit a kill in a mastina-lemonator scumteam? (The answer is 100% mastina because lemonator was basically everyone's secondary suspect.)


These are simple things that go without saying. The track results reduce the number of viable scumteams I could be on from five to two. As a result, it reduces the odds I am scum significantly...but also does not eliminate them altogether.
2) It fits that she would have taken a shot at me, and let Dark live.
It doesn't fit because you being shot would fucking increase your confidence. I am RENOWNED for my ability to exploit paranoia and doubt. You living without being shot at would make people think your reads were wrong...and that's especially helpful if "people" also includes YOURSELF.

By shooting at you, I give you confidence that your reads are right.
By shooting at Darklyn, I prevent him from gaining a result which would call his reads into doubt.

Now, if you were a VT, your point would be valid. I can and will shoot the players most suspicious of me when I think they will die. I know town players don't do NKA. The problem is, you're a fucking bulletproof. So by failing to nightkill you, when your slot so helpfully claimed, I am announcing to you that you were onto something.

Ergo, I wouldn't kill you. I'd kill Darklyn. He's the superior kill all-around.
This post is all kinds of wrong. The odds of catching the killer was not 50/50. It would be 50/50 only if Dark knew exactly who the sum team was. His odds for CTK was 1 in 7.

I really love the two in red, on those teams you would have made the decision on who to shoot, but I don't believe for a minute you would have actually taken the shot. You would have had your partner do that.
Yeah WIFOM is a terrible thing for me, I always get caught up in it when trying to figure out people. It's why I go after the tone of the posts, see if the content matches it, and then figure out the intent last. Usually means a bit of extra reading, but it's the only way I can figure some people out.
Icy wrote:
I understand the way I play the game is different than most, but I trust my reads, and I don't vote all over the place.
I actually like the playstyle. Should make you a good player on this site imo. You and Darklyn are confTown at this point, I'd suggest the both of you try and share as much info with each other as you can. You know you can trust the other slots alignment. You have a townbloc of 2 right now. That probably won't last the night, so today is highly important.

@ThinkBig - Do you have any insight into what Grey's "softing" was about? Why do you think Alisae is misreading your slot - mistake or scum trying to mislynch? Which players do you not have a strong read on, and why?
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Post Post #1292 (isolation #12) » Sun Mar 26, 2017 7:48 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Welcome Blawb!
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Post Post #1311 (isolation #13) » Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:28 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1300, mastina wrote:
In post 1255, ChrisOrmie wrote:You are for pre-flip interactions being analysed. Associatives, you agree, are not synonymous with interactions. You engage others using the term they have laid out. You also agree that associatives/associations are something you use with caution.
This is in fact correct. Though I don't see why you went and proved my point by quoting a bunch of posts which just go to reinforce what I just told you. I mean. I'm reading what you said. And all of it is just going on to demonstrate I'm telling the truth?

You literally quoted evidence which proved my point.
No I posted this to show how what you said and did this game,
literally contradicts
what you say you do. It is far from demonstrating any truth on your part. You've only quoted the bit that makes you look good, and ignore all the stuff that proves you lied about my comments and twisted the argument from it's original context. I NEVER SAID PRE-FLIP INTERACTIONS, I FUCKING SAID PRE-FLIP ASSOCIATIONS. THERE IS A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE!

I'm so fucking done at this point.
In post 1300, mastina wrote:
I'm not infallible, and neither is Smith
This is true enough.
And yet.
You allegedly hold mhsmith to a higher standard--this is evident in your posting--and yet you have utterly failed to so much as use a single piece of his analysis. That's my fucking point.

I wasn't arguing mhsmith is infallible.
I was arguing that mhsmith is someone you have claimed to hold in high esteem (do you deny this?), yet you're not fucking using his input into the game at all. (Which is also pretty damn true.)

The point is you're trying to have your cake and eat it too in terms of mhsmith. You're trying to paint him as being some great town player...but then you're trying to not use anything he gave under the assumption he is not that great of a town player. It's a contradiction in stances.
Just because I love the way Smith thinks, and his self-analysis, does not mean I always agree with him, nor should I still sheep him when I see flaws in his thinking.
The problem isn't that you're not always agreeing/sheeping him.
It's that you're not fucking using him AT ALL.

Not one bit.
You utterly discarded his input to the game.
Except the very same post you quoted here also explains why I have read his points, why I liked his thought process, and why I still disagreed with him. It also showed my thoughts on his play on this site in general, how I love his analysis of his own play more than his play itself, and how everyone on the site should try and do the same. I've explained this, and Mastina has ignored this again because it doesn't fit with the picture she's trying to paint. She only quotes the bits that support her argument and not the context they were put in at all. Seriously... this is not town, town does not do this bs.
In post 1306, mastina wrote:
In post 1266, DogWatch wrote:Eh, just tried going through Chris's recent posts. To be honest, I had a hard time really following all of it but I'm getting a gut feeling that mastina is using lots of weaselly words and reasoning to make herself sound correct, and that seems to be Chris's main point.
You sure you don't have that backwards?

I'm notoriously difficult to follow. (Blame autism, blame verbosity, whatever.) ChrisOrmie's posts used a lot of fancy words in them to bolster his position, yet when you look at what he's saying...he's saying things which aren't really based in fact.
If you want to call me a liar, just come out and fucking say it. But show where, when, and how - like I have done to show your lies. You're contradicting yourself AGAIN, btw, having earlier saying I was trying to position for wriggle room - You've been doing it all game yourself! Everything I have posted is based on facts due to me being a very logical person. I have explained in detail each one of my points, refuted yours, and called you out for your "content" and attempts to get town to follow a flawed plan which could easily be a trap to get scum a quick win. POINT OUT MY LIES, MAKE A CASE, SHOW THE PLAYERS, BUILD A WAGON ON IT... oh wait, you can't because my arguments are firmly rooted on facts, whereas yours are bs.

----
Blawb wrote:Mastina is a top-notch player, and I was slightly intimidated by the walls of text and vast experience she presented to us. Initially, I thought that she was giving us everything we wanted to hear, and feigning game-advancing content by making long posts about anything *but* the game (theory, IRL, her own meta, etc).

I'm now inclined to believe that mastina is town, because I am a firm believer in meta.


The reasoning behind starting the Lynch on mhsmith. Reasoning is totally justified imo, and basically exactly what I look for in people when deciding if they're scum or not.
Interesting, You rate Mastina highly as a player, so why can she not twist her meta? I do it, others do it, some even set up their meta for months just to play their "town game" and win as scum. Heck I know people on this site that have alts just so they can practice it. Good players can do it, do you think a "top-notch player" is incapable of it?

You disliked her earlier game but townread her due to resisting RC's push on her d1, and then starting a lynch on Smith for good logic. How does this compare with d2 play? What about my posts showing her twisting arguments to suit herself, poor logic in the lynch gambit, and refusal to respond to my rebuttals of her claims? I do not see it coming from town at all - certainly not an experienced and "top-notch player". I'd expect far better than what Mastina has shown.

Her 1300 is taking things out of context, quoting what she wants others to see, and refusing to even consider what I've been trying to tell her. Not a town attitude, but also the tone is wrong and the whole thing comes off as massively opportunistic - rather than allowing everyone to understand both sides of the argument and decide. If there is no town-motivation behind a post, it has to be from scum.
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Post Post #1358 (isolation #14) » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:34 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Grey did some things that made me suspicious that he was scum, however there are more than a few posts that are highly town motivated from the slot too. It's either scum gambiting like mad, or town that wasn't paying attention to the game. I've not seen a lot of their games, but Ali was convinced the slot was scum, and TB's play is not improving my opinion one bit. I still see the slot as shady and wouldn't be opposed to seeing their flip, but Mastina is the one I am reluctant to let go of. I feel she's too good a player to give time to.

@oldwino I was townleaning on RC, and Ali's only improved the slot imo. Highly doubt that he's scum. I was worried it was confbias as I usually read RC as town (and just played with town-Ali where he was very similar to this game) but ISOs do nothing to make me suspect the slot.
In post 1325, Blawb wrote:VOTE: DogWatch

I went through DogWatch's ISO, and can say with confidence that he is more concerned looking townie than helping the town.
I get a similar feeling but didn't think it was AI, but do you think this is more indicative of scum than newbie - if so, why?
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Post Post #1387 (isolation #15) » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:45 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Mastina remains my preferred lynch today, but TB is a decent candidate this close to deadline. I've spent most of today reading through the slot's ISO on my phone at work, and I'm willing to back Ali on his read of Grey, my own suspicions, and TB's lack of content. Intent to put TB at L-1.

Before we push through any lynch today though, we'll probably either see Icy or Blawb die tonight so I want to get full reads and thoughts from those slots today please.
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Post Post #1396 (isolation #16) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:38 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1394, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1392, Icy wrote:Town Mastina has sure been quiet while one of her strongest town leads walks the Mafia green mile.
Mastina explicitly stated she wouldn't help OR hinder the TB wagon. If TB is her strongest town read, I wouldn't expect this kind of apathy.
I think she did say she would be back at deadline, not sure if v/la or anything though. She also said she'd hammer TB iirc... I'm trying not to tunnel but everything that's coming out of her lately I just don't like.

@Blawb: In her other games you read, was this how she played when a strong townread of her was pushed hard? Does this fit her as one alignment more than another in your opinion?

NOTE: I'll be at work at deadline (at work now, just sneaking a quick read) so not sure how active I can be then. Not v/la, but also busy from Saturday until Tuesday and so just wanted to let y'all know about it in case I'm only able to dip in and out sporadically.
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Post Post #1401 (isolation #17) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:33 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1397, oldwino wrote:
@Mod, VC please.

I am pretty sure if I vote Mastina that puts her at L1. Want to make sure, don't want to accidentally quickhammer.
Yes that's L-1 if you voted.
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Post Post #1406 (isolation #18) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:24 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1404, Blawb wrote:I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.


Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...
TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.
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Post Post #1409 (isolation #19) » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:55 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1408, oldwino wrote:
In post 1406, ChrisOrmie wrote:
In post 1404, Blawb wrote:I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.


Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...
TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.
Chris, if TB is your top scum read, why didn't you join that wagon and take him to L1?
No I was replying to Blawb's "That was the deal" and was just saying for me TB is in the pool with the two they wanted. Mastina is by far my biggest scumread of the game and that's why I've pushed that wagon so hard today, but TB is the second with both DogWatch and yourself a strong read either way but the next lowest on my list.
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Post Post #1437 (isolation #20) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:05 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1426, mastina wrote:
In post 1406, ChrisOrmie wrote:TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.
Like.

I can't describe how obviously this is scum who fucking KNOWS I'm flipping town.

Look at him.
He's literally assuming I am flipping town here.
If he were thinking I were actually scum, then he would need to find my scumbuddy. But here, he is indicating we need to find two scum, we need to find a scumteam, because he fucking knows I'm flipping town.
So many misreps. :lol:

1 - You are scum. That is why I pushed for your wagon.
2 - In response to being asked if someone voting you was a deal that meant it's either Wino or Dog tomorrow, I simply stated that TB is also a target for me. That's the scummiest slot, whereas the other two mentioned are my null-scum and null-town reads. So yes, I'm up for pushing those three d3 and trying to figure out which is the remaining scum.
3 - I never mention scumteam, or finding two scum tomorrow, or anything about you being town.

Stop trying to twist my words, read my posts properly (nobody else is having an issue here), stop the misreps. If I were half as scummy as you claim, you wouldn't have to make anything up to throw shade my way. Enjoy your lynch scum!
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Post Post #1441 (isolation #21) » Fri Mar 31, 2017 4:30 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1440, oldwino wrote:Blawb or Alisae, we need your vote on Mastina. Time is running out.
Only two and a half hours until deadline. I hope somebody is around soon, really doubt a no-lynch favors us.
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #22) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:00 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1454, Alisae wrote:In all seriousness I still SR ThinkBig because of Grey's play.
If you remove Grey from the slot, how does your read change?
In post 1459, Icy wrote:If I were to vote today it would be Alisae.

If we vote No Lynch does the scum team have to kill someone?
They don't have to but I think it'd be easy for them to take out the last confTown and then we go into the next day still in MYLO anyway.
In post 1460, Icy wrote:
In post 1457, oldwino wrote:Below is my post from a few real days ago, before the last lynch. I hypothesized an Alisae lynch (but Mastina's lynch works with the same logic) who flipped town. My scenario parallels TB's post today about maybe a no lynch is better than a mislynch. What do others think? If we can 90% identify scum today, yes lynch scum. But if we are unsure, does a no lynch improve our odds of surviving another day and a better chance of lynching scum on D4? Since I don't trust TB (Grey), maybe this logic sucks but I wondered about it previously, when I was sure Grey/Tb was scum. Now, maybe TB is town since this seems like a town-friendly idea. But hey, I'm naive here.
In a regular game maybe, but in this game the scum team could just take a shot at me and town is in the same boat tomorrow. Aren't they?
Exactly. If we'd taken out 1 scum already then a no-lynch wouldn't be a bad plan imo, but now it doesn't really help.
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Post Post #1474 (isolation #23) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:27 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Love how people are now highly suspicious of me, despite most of you agreeing yesterday on Mastina's play being scummy. Her flip surprised the hell out of me but I won't apologise for lynching someone who misrepped both myself and Ali, and put together a lynchplan that worked better for Scum than Town AND was based off 3 (yes THREE different assumptions that had little evidence to back them up. She was scummy as hell and I really don't understand why, as an IC and highly respected player, she'd play that way in a newbie game. Go back and re-read what she said and my rebuttals before saying my play was scummy. :lol:

@DogWatch - The thing I don't like about your scum pairings is you excluded yourself - now that's fine from your POV, but it's better play to include yourself and then explain why they are ruled out for other reasons than just "I know I'm Town". I also strongly dislike your quick vote on Ali - we have 13 days left and if you are town it only takes one more vote there before scum can quickhammer for the win. If you're gone until the deadline then casting an early vote is okay, otherwise it's bad play.

Right now I'm leaning on either TB or Dog. Really not seeing Ali doing anything scummy, instead mostly good posts from RC and Ali on that slot. Why is this most people's favourite lynch early today?

PEDIT:
Icy wrote:
In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
Yes
Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?

PEDIT2: OMG, if the mod does count that vote then Ali can get hammered right now if you are both town... there are 13 fucking days left, get a vote off and stop throwing!
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Post Post #1477 (isolation #24) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:41 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1476, Icy wrote:
In post 1474, ChrisOrmie wrote:
Icy wrote:
In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
Yes
Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?
For me sense the end of day one it has been Alisae, or Mastina. I agree with you on not understanding Mastinas play as town, but I am now forced to go back and read her posts as genuine town.
Okay I can understand the logic there at least. I'm not scum, but if you are sheeping Mastina since she flipped town then she didn't like my slot much. Not to mention I spent most of yesterday heavily pushing a mislynch - I'd want to lynch me today also on that alone.

You still thinking it's Alisae, then? I think I'm the only one townreading that slot right now, and after yesterdays lynch I have no idea if I'm just reading people wrong. Think I might need to rebuild my list from scratch, not got the time to do all the ISOs tonight but should be back tomorrow or Wednesday with a (hopefully) better read on the game. Blawb might have been the one with the best read on Mastina in retrospect, think I might need to start with their ISO and see what other slots they spoke about.
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Post Post #1479 (isolation #25) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:29 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1478, ThinkBig wrote:@chris, if you think Alisae is town, then who is scum?
The ISOs might change things, but OldWino and DogWatch are the two slots I have had issues sorting so far. I'm worried I might be confBias with Ali due to him being town in our last game and he's played this game similar but it doesn't feel the same. He felt more newbie and worried in that one, whereas here he's far more confident and seems more experienced. I'm still unsure on Grey's play but that might be influenced by my Ali townread, so not really sure on your slot either. I felt you were sheeping Mastina yesterday and if she flipped scum I was sure you'd be the other, but right now I have a feeling that you're town.

I really want to see Smith/Mastina/Blawbslot's reads again as we know they were town and can trust their intent. Also want to see if anyone voted in blocs, and who started which wagon. I think I'm going to spend a long time taking notes and re-reading the thread until I have a better grasp on how we got to MYLO so quickly.

I getting scared it's Ali becuase RC had me fairly sold on the slot and then Ali scumhunted Grey, but I also might have past game confBias mixed in too. It's more likely that Wino or Dog is the final scum, both post some decent things but they are the hardest slots to read their intent. Let me get my ISOs in and I'll give more confident reads in a day or so, right now I have so much WIFOM going through my mind that I can't tell think straight. I also think VCA is going to be key here - not really done it before, but it's worth a try.
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Post Post #1497 (isolation #26) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:38 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1489, Alisae wrote:Hey Chris, why do you TR me?
You may have posted somewhere earlier but I forgot.
RC day 1, your scumhunting of Grey, overall tone, and your similar to the last game where you were town.
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Post Post #1503 (isolation #27) » Wed Apr 05, 2017 4:12 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Not completed my ISO, but Dog feels a lot more town when I looked at their interactions on d2.

Ali's push on Grey worries me, as does how quickly Grey exited the game. I really don't know what to think about that whole interaction, I think one of those two slots has to be scum because it just doesn't seem TvT at all. RC's push on Smith felt genuine, but he is good enough to do that as scum too.

Wino feels town, good tone, good analysis. The buddying of Icy worries me a little, but I don't think that is AI on it's own. I like how they don't feel comfortable with my slot after the Mastina lynch, scum would have pushed me harder but they stick to their own reads and observations.

I think that Ali/Grey interaction was not TvT, so I think we have to lynch one of those two today. Dog's vote is on Ali, and both Icy and Wino seem happy to vote there. It makes me think that both Ali and TB might be our scum after all.

Intent to vote Alisae


@Icy How confident are you on TB being town?
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Post Post #1517 (isolation #28) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 4:52 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1516, DogWatch wrote:Chris's sudden progression from town!Ali to scum!Ali feels ungenuine, like it's a last ditch attempt to distance himself from a scum buddy who he knows is about to be lynched. That might seem too obvious, but what else is he plausibly going to do? Notice how he hints at the turn by asking Icy "you still think it's Alisae?" and soon after saying "I'm getting scared it's Ali." It's like he's planting little seeds to show that he really did have a legitimate progression in his change of opinion. But something about it feels fake to me.

It does look fishy that Chris and Ali have been fairly buddy-buddy ever since Chris replaced in, but have separated the moment I named them as the scum team.

We now have Chris intending to vote Alisae, and Alisae calling Chris out for scum-claiming.

But why doesn't Alisae vote Chris then?
Why stay on ThinkBig? He claims it "doesn't matter" but it does. If you're town, do you want to win this or not? It's just appeal to emotion. He's trying to look like defeated town who no longer cares in the hopes we'll move our attention elsewhere.
Good post, town post. I was trying to get Ali to respond and jump on me, but he seems way too fixated on TB to pay attention. Best thing is that even though I didn't get the conformation that Ali was town, I shifted a townlean into Town thanks to the above response.

Icy reads these two slots opposite to me, so I wanted to see if I could get some responses to see if I could see what Icy was seeing. I don't like blindly sheeping, but when a confTown reads the game differently to me then I force myself to try and view the game from their pov. Ali was way more undecided and nervy in our last game (where he was town), here he doesn't feel the same and his tone is way different. He calls me scum, but no vote, and no appeals to others like I'd expect from a town slot. In fact the only "scumhunting" the slot has done was on Grey, despite Mastina and Icy (both confTown at this stage) reading that slot as town.
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Post Post #1519 (isolation #29) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:39 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

Confbias from the last game. I came into this game liking RC (I normally townread them) and off the back of playing with AliTownPR. First thing I saw was a confident read on Grey and from that point on I didn't really look for any scum-motivation for his posts. Mastina was also pushing the slot and I didn't agree with her analysis, which confirmed Ali as town for me, but now post flip I have had to reread what Mastina had to say and coupled with Icy being confident TB is town, then that changes a lot of how I read Ali in this game.

In between those two posts I ISO'd RC/Mastina/TB/Ali and their interactions with me. That's when the tone changed and I remembered how different he actually was at MYLO compared to here. Overall the feel is similar but when comparing both MYLOs then there is a huge difference, but the stance Ali is taking is way different, he's actually jumping into the spotlight and not shying away. Add in the fact that they claim to now scumread me but no FOS, no vote, no intent... just continuing to try and build a wagon on TB when the rest don't seem to be entertaining that. Tbh I'd be more worried if my reads didn't change after the Mastina flip... I'm obviously playing poorly in this game, so trying to see what Icy is seeing as at least his motivations are pure. I'm prepared to ride his coattails to the win since I've just fucked things up so far. Without me, Ali is the lynch yesterday not Mastina, and we'd probably be in a far better situation right now.
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Post Post #1528 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:04 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

VOTE: Alisae
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Post Post #1531 (isolation #31) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:06 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1529, ThinkBig wrote:Good game.

@Alisae, next time you say that Grey is scum, I will be the first to say "Baaa baaa"
Yeah fun game!
Sorry Ali, I had to make you look like my partner today because of Mastina. :D
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Post Post #1559 (isolation #32) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:43 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1539, ThinkBig wrote:@MOD: I am ok with releasing the scum chat.
@Grey, hope I made you proud with your slot.
@Alisae, thanks for being usual lynch bait!
@Chris, thanks for being an awesome buddy.
Thanks TB, made it easy that final day to be scummy and still get us through for the win. I was sure someone would have slowed down the wagon seeing as it was MYLO, but it jsut kept building for us. :D

I think this is my worse scum game of the 2 I've replaced into now, that one I could play mostly town but here I did have to manufacture a few extra things. Made it interesting, but even with no NK n1, just glad to get it over the line. No RC, no Smith, and I managed to get Mastina out too... I had to do that just in case I was tracked that night which is why Blawb had to be the kill. Nervous times there. oldwino and DogWatch were tough to play against, they gave me nothing to twist.
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Post Post #1564 (isolation #33) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 8:59 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1562, DogWatch wrote:
In post 1559, ChrisOrmie wrote:I was sure someone would have slowed down the wagon seeing as it was MYLO, but it jsut kept building for us. :D.
I was seriously considering switching my vote to you but then TB came along just at the right time.
Yeah I think I'd pushed it a bit much at that point, was expecting a big push on me there. Was trying a something new out and it just doesn't mesh with my playstyle well.
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Post Post #1573 (isolation #34) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:20 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1569, mhsmith0 wrote:That hope spot where thinkbig was wagoned briefly d2 before it returned to mastina made it more painful but I figured town was going down. I think RC replacing out made it like 80% scum win odds even given the RC/scum/scum POE.

Mastina hard scum reading Chris and then doing her best to wagon elsewhere while blaming me (as if I'd EVER advocated bullshit like information lynching) just slayed me. It's just really difficult to win as town when you have people aggressively game-throwing like that.
Really didn't understand her logic with all that. I just took the opportunity there to play like town and call her on it. I think that's the turning point of the game, if I get lynched on that day I think town has a shot - especially with no kill n1.
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Post Post #1609 (isolation #35) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:04 am

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1604, RadiantCowbells wrote:Mafia is more about how you do things than what you do.
^ This. So much this.

Tone is often a more useful indicator than content. People's gut works mostly because of the subconcious noticing things that your conscious mind hasn't picked up on yet. It's my favourite scumhunting/mislynching tool. :D
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Post Post #1661 (isolation #36) » Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:10 pm

Post by ChrisOrmie »

In post 1650, PenguinPower wrote:I'm actually quite pleased at how post-game has gone. Good discussion and comments. Was worried for a bit. I think oldwino and Dogwatch (you aren't leaving) have a bright future here.

Thanks to everyone for playing a good game (ChrisOrmie...you are now conf!scum in all future games you replace into until proven otherwise), and I hope you had a good experience.
In post 1652, Alisae wrote:PP that's unfair to Chris -_-
Haha, the main issue is that I typically play my town game as both alignments. I get why I'm scumread a lot though, I have the knack of finding the flaws in people's thinking and tunneling on them for reactions. First game it nearly derailed the game but we got a town win, these last two I've enjoyed being scum after replacing in and getting perfect wins too. A year or so ago I hated being scum, too much pressure, but these days it's a fun challenge to switch alignments a bit.

Tbh, win or lose, I'm trying to just enjoy the experiences and having fun playing with new people along the way. :D Glad I could have met y'all and played in this game!
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