Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[LicketyQuickety]

Alright, what do you think of my votes now? Did you read my response to your description of how I vote?
Besides that most of this seems fairly cut-and-dry. I will state that I recall Ran was feeling burnt out in The Thing Mafia because of having been scum in several consecutive games, so he was disengaged there. My tell on Ran is different, it is that Ran seemed to push someone poorly based on another's reasoning in The Thing Mafia.

I would have to review the votes you made this game to really be able to tell if I was seeing something that isn't there or not. The original thought process I had was something like "I see Gamma has a very unique way of voting that is also very consistent. I wonder if he does his votes the same way as Scum?" Then I looked into it, and I found "Yes, Gamma must be very visceral about how he votes as Scum, but maybe there is still a gap there." Then the rest is history.

In response to 2234 I think this is a classic case of you trying to mimic an old Town meta as Scum. I've noticed I do this myself. It seems we are always kind of a step behind in our Scum meta as far as what our current Town meta goes. Since I have seen it happen for me, I can only assume it happens for others as well.

I didn't read The Thing Mafia because I didn't want to read a hydra game. So my tell comes from a different game than that.

[LicketyQuickety]

I want to know why KMD thought the wagon was bad early game.

Yeah, I hate to admit it because of what I said earlier about the wagon, but actually after reading that part of the game over, I think if Marquis flips Scum, that wagon is going to be very telling. I think it makes a few people look very good.

I have to say why I hate to admit it more though. I realize that my line of thinking is so contrary to what the norm is that it's borderline detrimental to Town. I have always been like this in Mafia and it's more annoying than you are probably thinking. I realize that by being so unconventional in what I am looking at compared to others that it's almost impossible for me to actually get a good grasp of what is going on in the game. Players like Llama, tho they don't back up what they are saying very well, have a much better understanding of what is going on in the game at the time. It pains me to admit that I am probably just slow in understanding things. It's really rather embarrassing.

So would you object to a Marquis wagon if it came down to it?

Who am I voting right now

[LicketyQuickety]

LOL someone said they were townreading Marquis and I thought it was you
turns out it was nsg's partner (kmdnumbers I thihnk0

yeah, It was them, and I, like you, wanted to know how the hell they see Marq as Town here. Like, KMD's reads list was God awful. It was so bad I don't think it comes from a Scum mindset.

[LicketyQuickety]

My read on North is a bit subtle. I think his teammates are influencing him more than they should and that North should depend on their own reasoning. I say this because I think North is a pretty good player and is logical. I think North would be doing BETTER in this game without their teammates actually. I think North probably has more on the ball than most of their teammates. That said, I think Mathdino is a smart guy. I think his read on me that I am Scum comes from what he expects from me based on sitechat where I come across as less off the wall than I do in a Mafia game. I think North's team overall struggles from being overly logical and not enough intuition.

[LicketyQuickety]

I also feel like my justification for my Dan read isn't as strong as some of my other reads. I think what dan has said has come across as intelligent and it's easy to read that as Town. I don't like that he has been very inactive and I can see a world where he is just coasting. I would say if I am wrong in two of my Town reads, it's Dan and Dunn.

[LicketyQuickety]

Votecount 3.1

Marquis(2)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, LicketyQuickety

northsidegal(1)

~ Ranmaru

LicketyQuickety(1)

~ Gamma Emerald

Cogito Ergo Sum(1)

~ Lycanfire


Not Voting (6): Davsto, Marquis, ActionDan, northsidegal, Thestatusquo, Dunnstral

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

[LicketyQuickety]

Gamma, are you still feeling I am Scum?

[LicketyQuickety]

yeah, I looked at them and I already know what your narrative is going to be because its the same one you used to attack me earlier.

It hasn't gotten any better.

Explain 751, 842, 845, 863, 1627, and 1787.

Here are the posts you want me to "explain" and I will also quote the post where I literally did explain them and apparently you're just ignoring that fact.

751: Do you think llamarble was being surface level here? I think picking down through to what might happen if eddie is town and hammers is far deeper analysis than scum players usually fake. Do you disagree? If so, why? Provide me examples of that kind of analysis being faked by scum. Because I haven't seen it and I've been playing 10+ years.


Heres 842:

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

What is your strong SR on me based on? I expect some pretty strong evidence considering this is D1.

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you. This is more well poisoning.

Oh look I responded, telling you to read the entire game. Because honestly I still don't understand how you could not understand how I was scum reading you. Here are some of the posts that I was trying to direct you to look back on that apparently you're too fucking lazy to do so.

I consider what people say about their play, but I don't let people tell me why they're doing the things they do because people lie. You know damn well I know you're quick and I believe I've told you that I've read your wiki, but I also recall you have something of a poor memory, so I forgive you for not remembering that.

The problem with your actions is that the things you're doing also have significant scum motivations. Regardless of if you think you're doing them for other reasons, I'm not in your head, and I can't just trust you.

And I also am starting to be pretty sure you're scum because you're poking and drawing almost no reasonable conclusions. You start long discussions with me about nonsense about how reck is using different tools to find reads, and then disengage as soon as I try to explain. That's the biggest problem here. You're poking, but you don't seem to care about the responses to your pokes. At least not from the people you're poking. You seem to be singularly interested in the responses of other players, which makes me think you're more interested in finding where you can find an easy lynch, and not concerned about finding the correct lynch. This squares quite nicely with your vote on marquis also, which you have not fully explained after naked voting. It's nice to be on the highest vote getter who happens to not be posting much.

Actually, literally all the votes on marquis right now are atrocious.

Yeah, If you are going to accuse someone of something, you really shouldn't be doing it yourself. I am talking about you accusing me of just dropping things. You have done this a lot this game in my interactions with you. If you have a viable response to why you have done this, than so do I. And it's looking more and more like Marquis is Scum, so I'd like to know what you defense of him is based on here.

1) I didn't say you're going for the easiest lynch. I said you were going for an easy lynch, which I think "the second easiest lynch" would qualify as.

2) I don't agree with people just because they town read me. That's playing town 101. Please give me more credit than that, I've only been playing this game for 10+ years.

3) you seem to think that this read is coming out of nowhere out of one thing. That's not the case, and it doesn't come from lycan. Lycan's post just made me circle around to something thats been bugging me about your play for basically this whole game, which is what I laid out in my last post. You're poking everywhere, but you don't care about the persons response to the poking. You keep trying to figure out how the rest of the town is responding to the poking. That's the basis of me thinking that your motivation is not to find scum but to find where you can rally town support.

4) I am voting another scum read. I'm allowed to have multiple. Would happily switch to your wagon. I have been pretty transparent about how I feel about people. The reason I asked the question is that you haven't been. I have no way of knowing who you find scummy other than your vote, because you keep poking at cracks and moving on when a wagon doesn't form.

1) Semantics. If you really think you "caught" me for that then your experience does you no justice which leads me to

2) Appeal to authority

3) You talk about my flipping like it's a sure thing. Why?

4) Yeah, who you are Scum reading are Town, so you haven't impressed me with your reads, honestly.

Like that vibe becomes even stronger with the conclusion.

It's another reason I think you're likely to be scum.

You keep trying to subtly discredit scum reads on you. And I just mean like, argue and dispute arguments, because theres obviously town motivation to do that. What I mean is you keep trying to weasel around people scum reading you. One example of it is trying to cast all the people scum reading you as not understanding how you play, and saying they were doing so because they didn't like you playing mechanically, when in fact doing so was not the reason I had stated I was scum reading you, nor do I think its a fair characterization of the reason others were.

Similarly, in this post you seem to be suggesting that llama has not done the work, and subtly implying that his reads on you aren't to be trusted. At no point has llama said or even implied he hasn't read your iso, so you throwing it out there like that reads to me as an attempt to discredit his arguments instead of trying to interact with them.

It's disingenuous. You're not making good faith arguments.

I laid out in GREAT FUCKING DETAIL why I thought you were scum. I did it multiple times. The fact that you couldn't fucking remember is not a fucking scum tell for me.

With regards to me fighting the Scum reads on me: You fucking have meta on me of doing this very thing as Town. Why are you just sweeping that under the rug? Like that was a huge part of the game where havo and others were saying (I think Chill, your teammate was saying the same) that I was only accusing Havo of being Scum because they suspected me first. Like it seems you have drawn zero conclusions about that in the way I approach getting SR.

Llama gave zero details about most everything they have said. Why should I just take it on good faith that Llama has done that work? It seems you are acting in a way that you know Llama is Town already and not questioning that at all. Why?

845

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you

. This is more well poisoning.

You admitted yourself you know I have a bad memory. What the hell, man?

Oh my fucking god look I responded literally TWO POSTS AFTER.

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you

. This is more well poisoning.

You admitted yourself you know I have a bad memory. What the hell, man?

This isn't some passing remark, this is the fundamental and huge part of this game. I simply do not understand how you could possibly have a position on me and how I've played this game without some understanding of why I am scum reading you. Nor do I believe that bad memory means "don't remember a huge thing that happened like 3 days ago"

So basically, you are saying you don't think I have as bad of a memory as I actually do. How would that make me Scum? It would assume I couldn't/wouldn't have the ability to defend myself. I think it should be clear that I am not short of arguments, so where does this come from?

I'm not relitigating the argument. I'm just saying the claim you're making in 850, that llamarble was interpreting my words without context and that I had done nothing to explain them and that I had never confirmed he was correct is DEMONSTRABLY false.

You've basically just said that your hard defence of Llama is completely baseless because otherwise you would see that my interpretation of what you said is correct and Llama's is incorrect. Reason for this is the point I bring up (which is a valid one) is that under what condition do I always vote for you in that situation. This is a situation that has not been answered and so it is NEW. We haven't talked about this yet and if we have, I don't remember getting an answer. So what I am seeing here is although MY interpretation of what you said is true and Llama's is false, you still SR me and TR Llama. How do you account for this disparity?

I didn't respond to this because its bullshit. your entire premise is false. Llamarble was correct and you were wrong. Full stop. Furthermore, clearly you should know I would have this opinion because again we already had a full page long argument about this. You are wrong. The fact that you literally have no idea what colloquial language is is again not a reason I am scum.

So you didn't respond to it because it's bullshit? That's a fucking weak argument mate. If it was bull shit it should be easy as cake to disprove what I said, but you give nothing there. Under what justification do you feel you don't have to answer to this accusation against you? You still never answered even at this stage of the game.

Are you honestly accusing me of having the dastardly scum plan of hoping that people don't realize that 3 does not equal exactly 7?!?!

Is that legitimately what you think is happening right now?

Did I say that is what is happening now?

So I'm scum because I didn't feel like having a fight with you about whether someone saying "in the middle" to mean "not at the very beginning" is valid? Thats fucking bizarre dude. I think you are mistaking me being frustrated with the fact that you don't make ANY fucking sense for a scum tell.

Frankly I hate talking to you because I never understand what you're saying and it seems like at times you're purposefully misunderstanding the things I'm saying. What is the point of pointing out that 3 does not literally equal 7 if you're not trying to suggest I'm misreping? What is the actual fucking point you're making because honestly I'm still not fucking sure, so I have no idea what you even would want me to engage with you on here.

Well, it's not really a Scum tell that you said 3 days is midway through the day, but it is a Scum tell that you just completely drop the point when I say something that you can't explain from me as being a Town perspective. Like, even if you were to say something like "that's stupid" it would give me something from you that you acknowledged my point in the first place. Instead you don't say anything which means you either feel like I don't deserve a response or you know there is an undercurrent of Scum motivation for missrepping how much time is left in the day. Like I can come up with something like "shea said 3 days was midway through the day because he is trying to put it in people's heads to not utilize the full day to get as much out of Day Phase as possible." If I can come up with an explanation why it could be Scummy to say something, I would expect an answer for why you said what you said in the first place. So why DID you say it was midway through the day when it had only been 3 days?

@Ranmaru, Re: my reads changing with little progression. I have talked about this before on this site, see here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=72320

a lot of the problem is that its not like you really reevaluate, its like you shift from full town reading them to voting them with no warning and no indication that you were ever even remotely thinking of them as someone you might before.

Latest example being davsto.

Yeah, I do the opposite as well and change from Scum to Town reads this is just a part of my play, deal.

do you try to emulate this as scum?

I thought you didn't agree with self-meta. Why are you asking this question?

To answer, I think I have don't it in the past, but more often than not I try and have my reads "make sense" to Town members so it doesn't look like I am laking progression on people. It depends on the game. As Town, I just care more about constantly looking at things from different angles, so that is why my reads change like this. Ultimately, I would say switching reads like this is a tool I utilize, but it's not one I am constantly thinking about. Also, my perspective in doing this as Scum has more of an agenda, which is that I am usually in danger of getting lynched so I try and make it as hard to tie myself to my teammates as possible. And yes, I am actually pretty damn good at doing this considering I rarely see end game as Scum, but I still have a decent record as Scum. Really tho, much of my game as Scum is about confusing Town if I die. That is why I pull things like cross distancing with my teammates. I also try and make believable pushes on my teammates and it usually doesn't get them Lynched because I am actually horrible at pushing lynches because no one ever believes the reads I have. That's why it confuses Town so bad when I push my buddies - because they don't know what I was doing because my pushes make sense coming from me (at least on my teammates).

Literally already answered this. I was trying to catch you in a lie. I didn't. You weren't lying.

This is an incorrect answer. What you should have done is reference back to where you said you don't mind people giving self meta if asked, but that you don't like it when people use it as a defense. Why not include this in your answer? There is literally no reason not to unless you know what you are doing has ill intent.

[LicketyQuickety]

Preface: I know I'm ignoring questions I'm phoneposting

LQ you said you hated the Marquis wagon based on wagonomics yesterday. Can you explain your feelings on that for me?

Also, I feel like Dunnstral made a big vote off Marquis D1 onto Tchill. You townread Dunnstral, and TRed him yesterday simultanously as well. How do you reconcile both these game reads?

I don't remember saying that about the Marquis wagon yesterday. I think you

might

be talking about what I mentioned in regards to CES.

If you can clarify what you are talking about, I'd be happy to answer.

[LicketyQuickety]

Well, I think I picked a good day to clean my closet because pretty much NOTHING has happened in this thread today.

Lycan, I see your post. I feel like... IDK what you are doing there.. why are you what looks like shading me when you had me as strong Town not too long ago? How did that read change?

[LicketyQuickety]

Also somebody said this methodical lurking and excuses comes from scum, I agree with that in regards to tchill (and not myself)

and by tchill I mean marquis

It almost sounds like you are taunting Town as Scum saying "You can't lynch me"

[LicketyQuickety]

Unvote; Vote: Shea

Damn, that had potential.

[LicketyQuickety]

Marquis still needs rope.

[LicketyQuickety]

OK, actually reading now.

[LicketyQuickety]

Well, I think I picked a good day to clean my closet because pretty much NOTHING has happened in this thread today.

Lycan, I see your post. I feel like... IDK what you are doing there.. why are you what looks like shading me when you had me as strong Town not too long ago? How did that read change?

Your unwavering TR of Dunnstral, mixed with random shadeposts on him, wagonomics post v Marquis, while supporting Marquis' lynch, while doing nothing to reconcile your reads. I don't feel like any of this is real. The Postie kill is just extra-skirt asked me if I'm the kill, and I told him Shea was because I'm a fuckwit that is letting other people influence me. The Postie kill has some kind of function (you did it, somebody wants me to think you did it.) I don't actually give a shit about why Postie died, or if you killed her. I'm here to smash this game and pull my team ahead from any tie break scenarios, so you get to deal with angry Lycan for the rest of the day.

Bus CES.

Eddie, case closed.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'd prefer to bag CES first because that should hang the third out neatly and solve the game.

You're putting the cart before the horse here.

[LicketyQuickety]

CES: Why didn't you explain your mindset to NSG about your vote on Eddie, instead of simply saying you feel she's trying to scapegoat you for the two mislynches? Are you re-reading yet?

I don't think engaging nsg's team's reads directly is particularly helpful, especially when they're expressed vaguely. I'd rather hear what nsg thinks herself.

I have started re-reading (and re-thinking), yes. It's annoying how Marquis hasn't been lynched despite how criminally obvious he is in the early going.

With the Postienightkill, I'm also currently thinking that one potential purpose of it would be to make nsg look more town and thereby more clout to steer the lynch away from Marquis. Obviously, that does explicitly require Marquisscum but there are definitely scum teams for which that would make sense as a tactic (e.g. Marquis-nsg-Dunnstral). I think it's probably still more likely that it points to a relatively confident scum team (e.g. GE-AD-TSQ, but let's not actually entertain the possibility of Marquis being town if we can avoid it). I should do some calculations as a sanity check but it shouldn't matter too much Today either way - Marquis is the way forward.

This post doesn't feel right.

You talk about two tinfoil theories here without talking about what you think is most likely.

I'm down to go back to Marquis if pressure on Marquis starts to slip, But I want to try this out.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

[LicketyQuickety]

Spoiler:

Reads:
Llamarble somewhat misguided town, his scumread on Postie is p silly, but I feel like he's right on the money with Marqius, could also be right about Dunnstral's vote on Marquis being a bus
VOTE: Marquis

llamarble is quite the confident player. Already isssued a warning about being NK'd if he's sorted. Not a fan of players talking about they'll get NK'd this early in the game.

Marquis just seems a bit awkward but nothing super scummy from him imo.

If i had to guess 1 scum on the marquis wagon rn it's Postie. 110 percent gut read.

Could you try to back that up?

Reads:
Llamarble somewhat misguided town, his scumread on Postie is p silly, but I feel like he's right on the money with Marqius, could also be right about Dunnstral's vote on Marquis being a bus
VOTE: Marquis

what would indicate to you that he could be right about dunnstral bussing marquis? do you have a read on dunnstral from his one post / did something about it look like bussing to you? i'm not convinced you actually have anything here.

The fact that the only post so far was a naked vote on an existing wagon
thinking on it tho maybe I should just
VOTE: Dunnstral
Since tbh regardless of Marquis' alignment Dunnstral's vote was weird

Pretty confident on Eddie Fenix and lq being town

Can you talk more in-depth on LQ, I'm kinda on-the-fence there

Is sauce an axlegreaser alt?

Can't be, Alts are going to be represented as Mains.

yeah I know, consider that post more of an exasperated sigh than anything else.

I would like to add that at any point I will contribute to a sauce policy lynch without hesitation

idk I feel like Saue is one of

those people

, the ones who're annoying but fairly good at being towny to anyone who can actually read them

Not associative.
Right now I am thinking Marquis + Shea + Lycan
Re: Marquis:
Overall he's been here but not engaged enough
I don't like his laugh in post 30 immediately after he gets voted
I don't like his use of the team mafia format (mentions teammate but only theater comes of it, asking about others' teammates and who will read is information I think scum would especially seek)
Post 36 is the most interesting contribution he has, but it's treated as an aside ("for the record") and not pursued further. Well, actually it is. 42 part A and 48 part B are fine.

I'm curious about him asking me to unvote postie and about the null because want it to be null. Elaboration on those would be cool.

What is your (or your teams) read on chill?

Not my question but so far I'm kinda townreading him, could change on later pages though

I thought you were Scum here: viewtopic.php?f=84&t=64506

Otherwise, was that your first Scum game?

That was my first scum game, yes.

F... first?

VOTE: wgeurts

Haven't seen you play in a while. Hi!

Put it this way:
If you believe Llamarble hasn't found anything and is fishing for reactions, it makes sense to help him out by voting me or pretending you know what it is or even just staying quiet and letting things play out.
If you believe Llamarable really believes they've found something obvscummy, the logical thing to do is to ask what it is, in case it actually is something that makes sense.
You did neither or these things and instead instantly assumed he couldn't have found anything and attacked him for it. In what world does that make sense? In one where you know he can't have a good reason, because you know I'm town.

VOTE: wgeurts

While I ask about clarification from RC on northsidegal things.

p-edit: Nice timing.

What does "full-breakdowny" mean? And yeah, I've been called "accomodating" or similar things as town before. Interestingly, I don't think anyone has ever called me that as scum. Can probably dig you up some meta to show it's NAI.
Re-read Marquis' posts. I'm willing to roll with that.

VOTE: Marquis

Also

Would also like to know whose teammates are reading this game and whose are likely to give input d1

Also bumping this

I missed this. Definitly RC and idk about the rest of my team. Why does it matter?

Let's us know early she's voting weurgts but moves it to marquis shortly after voting weurgts a second time.

The post about the 2 reactions you "should" have pinged me.

If what Postie is saying about themselves as Scum is True, why the fuck does their team put Postie in a Scum role?

honestly I prolly won't read into team alignment picks because they could pull a switcheroo

@gamma – most of your reads seem to come from other players – do you have any reads of your own?

I don't really think that's true? My Marquis read was made by myself, but I just stated I felt Llamar was right. I also have my own reads on Llamar and Dunnstral

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

I can see how they got their reads, that's why lol

stopped at top of page 9, will do more later today

Fixing a broken quote
VOTE: Dunnstral

@lycanfire 606: I was engaging ef,not defending him. shade noted though.

VOTE: LQ
At this point I believe LQ is trying to make the people on his wagon look bad by challenging their opinions.

VOTE: LQ
At this point I'm honestly wanting this flip more, he's scummy, his scumminess matches past reconds of scumplay, and honestly at first blush srceenplay doesn't seem half bad

he wasn't, but honestly I still just wanna vote there since srceen's kinda feeling like a slimeball here
VOTE: Srceenplay

VOTE: EddieFenix

Obv. Also don't think it's a coincidence that the only other person expressing serious interest in this lynch was nightkilled. Me dead + Llamarble alive would've probably been more dangerous for Eddie than the other way round.

It's absolute Bull Shit to say Llama was killed because they were looking at Eddie. Like seriously...

Agreed. He was obvtown, simple as that.

Stop the presses, Mastina hath deep dove my earhole (more or less CAPS LOCKED in my PT lol)

Ran and Marquis are 100%, dead to rights, scum. No need to question it.

UNVOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum
VOTE: Marquis

Seeing as I townread Ran yeah I'm questioning this a little. Marquis vote is good though.
VOTE: Marquis

Trying to draw away from Postie.

What do you mean by this?

Fair enough. Later on, yes. LQ, I want a full reads list from you too.

LQ you are focusing a lot on Postie right now. I want a reads list.

Kinda obvious you're trying to draw heat away from someone.

It sure is convienient for you that your townread on me magically reversed itself to exactly line up with the kind of argument you needed to appeal to LQ

Hmmm.... Shade.... I don't need it. It's quite cold where I am atm. The sun would be nice.

However, I also bring word from Mastina. From Town to OMGLYNCHITWITHFIRE

Town:

ActionDan
Dunnstral
Davsto
northsidegal
Thestatusquo
Lycanfire

Town/Null
LicketyQuickety
Cogito Ergo Sum

Null
Gamma Emerald

Scum/Null
Postie

OMGLYNCHITWITHFIRE
Marquis
Ranmaru

We lynch the last 2 with fire, we win as town cause those are the 2 that are obv scum to her.

Can mastina explain why? And has mastina played with Ranmaru? I know both are older players but I'm not sure, and I don't care to do that type of meta dive when not alt-hunting
Also wasn't I in your townpile before, what happened?

Vote: LQ

Why not continue voting Marquis?

[LQ > Eddie > Marquis > | AD > Dunn | NSG > CES > Davsto | Lycan > Postie > Gamma > TSQ > Ranmaru]

Forgot to add Postie. I think we have this game in the bag. Seeing LQ and Eddie make desperate plays seems like we have cornered them.

I am pretty on board with what you're sayin about Eddie but I'm not going to condemn him just yet, as I see it mastina is just going insane in his team PT and her trusts her
And honestly while I don't like how Lycan has been reading me maybe I've been tunneled on him a bit based on that.

@Shea,

I worded that poorly. What would be a better way of saying it is that the reasons that Gamma is voting for these people don't really seem to "strike home" for me. They just more or less look like it would otherwise be a naked vote and what Gamma said was just kinda tact on.

[LicketyQuickety]

Ironically enough, I feel Gamma just did a Town tell by keeping his vote on me when he isn't SRing me.

I feel really good about the wagons right now.

[LicketyQuickety]

Shea, I just want Marquis over dunn. I want you to look at Davsto hard. get back to me on that. Action Dan too.

I just reread the game, what do you want me to say about them?

High level:

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

I think I could actually see either of them as scum from the reread.

That's just a personality trait, I don't think that means they are Scum necessarily.

[LicketyQuickety]

Is that based on meta, Quick?

Nope. I totally get what shea is saying. It makes more sense as a personality trait than that they are necessarily Scummy. I'm somewhat of a psychology buff, who reads complicated shit regarding psychology in my free time.

[LicketyQuickety]

I like that vote, Gamma.

Agreed.

[LicketyQuickety]

If you like the vote why aren't you following me on it?

Because one wagong is good, but two wagons is better. I'd like some semblance of a competing wagon this day so that people can look at the votes and actually see something with VCA.

[LicketyQuickety]

I mean part of the different nature of wagons can be attributed to the mountainous setup. In non-mountainous setups you push and then you maybe get a claim and then you evaluate and then people react to the claim which starts new wagons. You don't really have that here. Have you ever played mountainous before?

I also still think that you're not quite correct about the fact that there haven't been competing wagons on which to draw conclusions. A large part of why I think you're town has to do with how the wagons d1 and 2 shook out.

Well poisoning.

Damn that felt good.

[LicketyQuickety]

It's basically what I just said. A lot of the action in mafia is dictated by roles. They shape wagons and pushes (sometimes overtly, i.e. with guilties and sometimes not with neighborhoods and masons and what not.) when you remove that from the game you get a lot of people who are expecting the subtle ways that roles effect the way the game plays out.

One of those subtle ways is that often the purpose of wagoning is to get more game information. A claim, or a fake claim to evaluate and to read other peoples evaluations of those same things. In mountainous those things just don't exist, we're literally just voting for who is scum in our minds, so our behavior is slightly different. It definitely effects what happens at the end of wagons.

Try to think through what would happen if claiming were against the rules, or, better yet, if every single time you pushed someone to claim they claimed VT. Think about how that would change how wagons typically play out.

LIES!!!

You fucking snake!

@Ranmaru,

I can't explain why this makes shea Scum, but keep pressing this point and you will eventually catch him. I can't do it because Shea knows how do deal with me too well and I would mess it up.

[LicketyQuickety]

Literally the only thing I can think of that might be called a "lie" is that I simplified some of the reasons that people vote (like, for instance, reaction tests and the like as well as to see how people deal with pressure or I mean, there's a bunch of other ones) because they weren't relevant to the thing I was discussing, and they obviously exist in both worlds.

But I am completely baffled by how LQ could possibly think me discussing OOG theory because I was asked to is in some way AI.

It's because you say that Wagonomics won't work in this game because it's mountainous which is a load of liquidy diarrhea. You're trying to save your ass by saying VCA doesn't mean anything in this game because it's mountainous. NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH!!. VCA is one of the most powerful tools at your disposal in a mountainous game. Shea is feeding you horse shit!

[LicketyQuickety]

Dan, what happened to that full reads list?

Dan is Town, leave him alone.

[LicketyQuickety]

It's because you say that Wagonomics won't work in this game because it's mountainous which is a load of liquidy diarrhea.

Please point to where I say that.

In fact I said the literal opposite. I said I'm not into VCA in general but that I think it clears you.

This is what I'm talking about. You're accusing me of saying something when in fact I'm literally saying the exact opposite.

I said that wagons develop differently, not that you can't read them.

You're tying to explain away why your votes are so fucking awful! You talk about games that aren't mountainous for literally NO OTHER REASON than to say that VCA isn't good in this mountainous game. Otherwise what you are saying is completely 100% irrelevant.

[LicketyQuickety]

Ranmaru, reading and critically thinking about Davsto alone took 2 hours. I work slow.

That said.

If there's a specific person you want me to analyze, tell me instead. My general view of everybody is mostly the same Day-in, Day-out.

---

I might have a higher impact if people actually listened to me and considered my reads and why I have them. As far as I can tell, I think Lycan is basically the only one who really looks at them, and his response to it is to basically discredit everything I say. That's my experience so far this game. (It was a pleasant surprise to see Mastina actually care, of all people)

But that's not on me. And I'm not the type to scream "LISTEN TO ME". So that's just how it is.

---

This game and Valentine's are pretty different, and I had presence, I posted huge walls and got townread from it. In any case saying "I want to increase my meta reliance"... doesn't that strike you as fucked up. I mean why would anyone willfully want to do that when there is content which will always be a much better indicator of alignment. I mean just look at the meta arguments levied at Eddie. that didn't turn out well did it?

Not true. I am looking at your reads as well. Like I know you are Town. Your previous post is just 100%Town. I know you are good because of how you analyze the game. I think people are either paranoid that you are Scum or Scum said that to discredit you, but I really think you are Town.

I'd even consider voting Dunn because of what you have said and because of your stance on Dunn. I also think shea is Scum 100%. Look, I don't say this often.. I have only done this twice, matina told me about this one time when I was asking for advice via PM, but this is one of those times where I have to use it...

Shea is Scum, just trust me on this. Really, if you see me as Town, then believe what I am telling you as if I was as close to sure as I can get in this game saying that shea is Scum. You just have to trust me on this tho. Like I said, I have only done this one other time. the time I did this before, I called out a very competent player who was a 3rd party role. It's true that the other wagon would have lynched Mafia in when I said that, but That was more like me trying it out to see if it worked. We ended up lynching the 3p and we won the game after that. I can link the game if you want.

[LicketyQuickety]

I LITERALLY DID VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IN THE FUCKING POST THAT YOU'RE CLAIMING SAYS VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS BAD.

LITERALLY.

FUCKING LITERALLY.

IN THE SAME POST.

YOU ARE LITERALLY FUCKING CLAIMING THAT I AM SAYING "VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS NOT CORRECT SO I AM GOING TO NOW DO SOME VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS.

Yeah, you did it to get a Town read on me, someone who is such a wild card it doesn't even matter if I am a TR or not.

Where are you doing this to find Scum, Shea?

[LicketyQuickety]

I LITERALLY DID VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IN THE FUCKING POST THAT YOU'RE CLAIMING SAYS VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS BAD.

LITERALLY.

FUCKING LITERALLY.

IN THE SAME POST.

YOU ARE LITERALLY FUCKING CLAIMING THAT I AM SAYING "VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS NOT CORRECT SO I AM GOING TO NOW DO SOME VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS.

Yeah, you did it to get a Town read on me, someone who is such a wild card it doesn't even matter if I am a TR or not.

Where are you doing this to find Scum, Shea?

fuck you.

You're pissed because you know I'm right!

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: TSQ

[LicketyQuickety]

You know what.

Fuck you

VOTE: LQ

I don't give a fuck if you're town I'm not playing with you anymore.

Scum tell.

[LicketyQuickety]

I don't see dan as scum this game. I don't think dan would take this game if he got a scum pm, I don't think he would play the way he's been playing as scum and I don't think his team would be as uninvested as he's described (which I believe). Moreover, I was townreading him by play day one and the only thing that changed that was the erroneous belief that he prefers scum. With that cleared up I really don't see it.

Talk to me about this, ran. Also talk to me about marquis scum, because I'm reasonably confident that he's the scumteam's scapegoat of choice today.

North, listen, you have to read me Town and you have to vote shea. Trust me on this.

[LicketyQuickety]

Look, when I talk about trusting your gut in my wiki, this is exactly what I am talking about. I can't make a believable cas on shea, so you guys are just going to have to trust me.

[LicketyQuickety]

I do townread you. For right now, i'm not voting tsq because i think that's a distraction from more important points and is more likely to create 5 pages of walls that nobody wants to read than anything else. For now, i'm going with llamarble's approach - if tsq is scum, we have to lynch his partners.

Dan, did you mention that you think it's marquis/dunnstral? Despite my marquis read i think that makes sense, but talk to me about who the third is there.

Marquis is Scum. Dunn is prolly Scum too.

I'm trying to bring down the giant first because there's likely to be the most resistance there so making associations there would make the game a cakewalk.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm going to step away from this game for 24 hours.

If I still feel like this after 24 hours I'm going to replace out.

I have literally never enjoyed playing with a single person less than I have enjoyed playing with you in this game.

I believe you are telling the truth here, but you're still a Scumfuck.

[LicketyQuickety]

LQ, you tell me not to bother Action Dan as you feel he is town. Why not tell that to Gamma?

I said it once, it's not like he didn't see it.

[LicketyQuickety]

Unvote; Vote: LQ

We got another one.

I have noticed that as soon as I make a read you don't like you vote me.

[LicketyQuickety]

Unvote; Vote: LQ

We got another one.

I have noticed that as soon as I make a read you don't like you vote me.

Is that scum tho
Ran/TSQ/LQ: step off each other. LQ and TSQ you need to just avoid talking to each other

What other motivation is there for voting me when he doesn't like my reads and unvoting me when he does like my reads?

[LicketyQuickety]

Hey I'm sorry I had some homework to do today which took ages but I'm here and I'll do a detailed catchup (I have been skimming) and, if I have time, I'll do the Marquis ISO that someone (Ran?) asked of me

Just before I start catching up though, I'm just gonna ask LQ if he can answer this questions since I don't think he did at the time

Lq where are your conclusions about these Shea posts from considering that you had him as your second strongest town read towards the end of yesterday (i.e. after all of those tsq posts were made)

The pattern with shea has been this:

I think shea is Scum.
I push him.
He dismisses me completely.
People keep TRing him which makes me give up the read.

Like, how am I going to make a case when he just keeps dismissing what my accusations are against him? I can't make a full case out of that can I?

[LicketyQuickety]

I think Davsto is just bad Town instead of bad Scum, honestly.

[LicketyQuickety]

"What do I do when all my points keep getting proven wrong? Idk halp."

There are plenty of things that were never resolved you liar.

[LicketyQuickety]

Spoiler: shea not responding to the accusations against him

I LITERALLY DID VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IN THE FUCKING POST THAT YOU'RE CLAIMING SAYS VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS BAD.

LITERALLY.

FUCKING LITERALLY.

IN THE SAME POST.

YOU ARE LITERALLY FUCKING CLAIMING THAT I AM SAYING "VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS IS NOT CORRECT SO I AM GOING TO NOW DO SOME VOTE COUNT ANALYSIS.

Yeah, you did it to get a Town read on me, someone who is such a wild card it doesn't even matter if I am a TR or not.

Where are you doing this to find Scum, Shea?

fuck you.

It's because you say that Wagonomics won't work in this game because it's mountainous which is a load of liquidy diarrhea.

Please point to where I say that.

In fact I said the literal opposite. I said I'm not into VCA in general but that I think it clears you.

This is what I'm talking about. You're accusing me of saying something when in fact I'm literally saying the exact opposite.

I said that wagons develop differently, not that you can't read them.

You're tying to explain away why your votes are so fucking awful! You talk about games that aren't mountainous for literally NO OTHER REASON than to say that VCA isn't good in this mountainous game. Otherwise what you are saying is completely 100% irrelevant.

Is that based on meta, Quick?

Nope. I totally get what shea is saying. It makes more sense as a personality trait than that they are necessarily Scummy. I'm somewhat of a psychology buff, who reads complicated shit regarding psychology in my free time.

Shea, I just want Marquis over dunn. I want you to look at Davsto hard. get back to me on that. Action Dan too.

I just reread the game, what do you want me to say about them?

High level:

Action dan and davsto are very similar players to me in how they've played. Every time they post I think they're town, but neither of them are actually doing much to advance the game and they don't seem to care about who is voted and why. Like, they say they care, and they have opinions, but they are both doing very little to actually achieve the goals.

I think I could actually see either of them as scum from the reread.

That's just a personality trait, I don't think that means they are Scum necessarily.

I'm not lynching ces over dunn nsg and marquis.

From my reread I didn't particularly like dunn at all. He and marquis are basically the same player in this game but one keeps getting tons of pressure and the other is getting none. Plus reck is screaming at me that dunn is scum in the discord.

Another thing that continually keeps coming up is LQ as a counter wagon to the town wagons. It's happened both days. I'm not huge on VCA but that does suggest to me that LQ is more likely to be town because there's not a lot of scum incentive to try to shift the wagon off of a town player that way, which means likely the early votes on his wagons were town as well.

VOTE: dunnestral

I want this before marquis and nsg. But I'd happily vote any of the three of them today.

@lycan

What do you think of my meta analysis on ces?

@LQ

is that a response to what cheet said?

Spoiler:

Reads:
Llamarble somewhat misguided town, his scumread on Postie is p silly, but I feel like he's right on the money with Marqius, could also be right about Dunnstral's vote on Marquis being a bus
VOTE: Marquis

llamarble is quite the confident player. Already isssued a warning about being NK'd if he's sorted. Not a fan of players talking about they'll get NK'd this early in the game.

Marquis just seems a bit awkward but nothing super scummy from him imo.

If i had to guess 1 scum on the marquis wagon rn it's Postie. 110 percent gut read.

Could you try to back that up?

Reads:
Llamarble somewhat misguided town, his scumread on Postie is p silly, but I feel like he's right on the money with Marqius, could also be right about Dunnstral's vote on Marquis being a bus
VOTE: Marquis

what would indicate to you that he could be right about dunnstral bussing marquis? do you have a read on dunnstral from his one post / did something about it look like bussing to you? i'm not convinced you actually have anything here.

The fact that the only post so far was a naked vote on an existing wagon
thinking on it tho maybe I should just
VOTE: Dunnstral
Since tbh regardless of Marquis' alignment Dunnstral's vote was weird

Pretty confident on Eddie Fenix and lq being town

Can you talk more in-depth on LQ, I'm kinda on-the-fence there

Is sauce an axlegreaser alt?

Can't be, Alts are going to be represented as Mains.

yeah I know, consider that post more of an exasperated sigh than anything else.

I would like to add that at any point I will contribute to a sauce policy lynch without hesitation

idk I feel like Saue is one of

those people

, the ones who're annoying but fairly good at being towny to anyone who can actually read them

Not associative.
Right now I am thinking Marquis + Shea + Lycan
Re: Marquis:
Overall he's been here but not engaged enough
I don't like his laugh in post 30 immediately after he gets voted
I don't like his use of the team mafia format (mentions teammate but only theater comes of it, asking about others' teammates and who will read is information I think scum would especially seek)
Post 36 is the most interesting contribution he has, but it's treated as an aside ("for the record") and not pursued further. Well, actually it is. 42 part A and 48 part B are fine.

I'm curious about him asking me to unvote postie and about the null because want it to be null. Elaboration on those would be cool.

What is your (or your teams) read on chill?

Not my question but so far I'm kinda townreading him, could change on later pages though

I thought you were Scum here: viewtopic.php?f=84&t=64506

Otherwise, was that your first Scum game?

That was my first scum game, yes.

F... first?

VOTE: wgeurts

Haven't seen you play in a while. Hi!

Put it this way:
If you believe Llamarble hasn't found anything and is fishing for reactions, it makes sense to help him out by voting me or pretending you know what it is or even just staying quiet and letting things play out.
If you believe Llamarable really believes they've found something obvscummy, the logical thing to do is to ask what it is, in case it actually is something that makes sense.
You did neither or these things and instead instantly assumed he couldn't have found anything and attacked him for it. In what world does that make sense? In one where you know he can't have a good reason, because you know I'm town.

VOTE: wgeurts

While I ask about clarification from RC on northsidegal things.

p-edit: Nice timing.

What does "full-breakdowny" mean? And yeah, I've been called "accomodating" or similar things as town before. Interestingly, I don't think anyone has ever called me that as scum. Can probably dig you up some meta to show it's NAI.
Re-read Marquis' posts. I'm willing to roll with that.

VOTE: Marquis

Also

Would also like to know whose teammates are reading this game and whose are likely to give input d1

Also bumping this

I missed this. Definitly RC and idk about the rest of my team. Why does it matter?

Let's us know early she's voting weurgts but moves it to marquis shortly after voting weurgts a second time.

The post about the 2 reactions you "should" have pinged me.

If what Postie is saying about themselves as Scum is True, why the fuck does their team put Postie in a Scum role?

honestly I prolly won't read into team alignment picks because they could pull a switcheroo

@gamma – most of your reads seem to come from other players – do you have any reads of your own?

I don't really think that's true? My Marquis read was made by myself, but I just stated I felt Llamar was right. I also have my own reads on Llamar and Dunnstral

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

I can see how they got their reads, that's why lol

stopped at top of page 9, will do more later today

Fixing a broken quote
VOTE: Dunnstral

@lycanfire 606: I was engaging ef,not defending him. shade noted though.

VOTE: LQ
At this point I believe LQ is trying to make the people on his wagon look bad by challenging their opinions.

VOTE: LQ
At this point I'm honestly wanting this flip more, he's scummy, his scumminess matches past reconds of scumplay, and honestly at first blush srceenplay doesn't seem half bad

he wasn't, but honestly I still just wanna vote there since srceen's kinda feeling like a slimeball here
VOTE: Srceenplay

VOTE: EddieFenix

Obv. Also don't think it's a coincidence that the only other person expressing serious interest in this lynch was nightkilled. Me dead + Llamarble alive would've probably been more dangerous for Eddie than the other way round.

It's absolute Bull Shit to say Llama was killed because they were looking at Eddie. Like seriously...

Agreed. He was obvtown, simple as that.

Stop the presses, Mastina hath deep dove my earhole (more or less CAPS LOCKED in my PT lol)

Ran and Marquis are 100%, dead to rights, scum. No need to question it.

UNVOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum
VOTE: Marquis

Seeing as I townread Ran yeah I'm questioning this a little. Marquis vote is good though.
VOTE: Marquis

Trying to draw away from Postie.

What do you mean by this?

Fair enough. Later on, yes. LQ, I want a full reads list from you too.

LQ you are focusing a lot on Postie right now. I want a reads list.

Kinda obvious you're trying to draw heat away from someone.

It sure is convienient for you that your townread on me magically reversed itself to exactly line up with the kind of argument you needed to appeal to LQ

Hmmm.... Shade.... I don't need it. It's quite cold where I am atm. The sun would be nice.

However, I also bring word from Mastina. From Town to OMGLYNCHITWITHFIRE

Town:

ActionDan
Dunnstral
Davsto
northsidegal
Thestatusquo
Lycanfire

Town/Null
LicketyQuickety
Cogito Ergo Sum

Null
Gamma Emerald

Scum/Null
Postie

OMGLYNCHITWITHFIRE
Marquis
Ranmaru

We lynch the last 2 with fire, we win as town cause those are the 2 that are obv scum to her.

Can mastina explain why? And has mastina played with Ranmaru? I know both are older players but I'm not sure, and I don't care to do that type of meta dive when not alt-hunting
Also wasn't I in your townpile before, what happened?

Vote: LQ

Why not continue voting Marquis?

[LQ > Eddie > Marquis > | AD > Dunn | NSG > CES > Davsto | Lycan > Postie > Gamma > TSQ > Ranmaru]

Forgot to add Postie. I think we have this game in the bag. Seeing LQ and Eddie make desperate plays seems like we have cornered them.

I am pretty on board with what you're sayin about Eddie but I'm not going to condemn him just yet, as I see it mastina is just going insane in his team PT and her trusts her
And honestly while I don't like how Lycan has been reading me maybe I've been tunneled on him a bit based on that.

@Shea,

I worded that poorly. What would be a better way of saying it is that the reasons that Gamma is voting for these people don't really seem to "strike home" for me. They just more or less look like it would otherwise be a naked vote and what Gamma said was just kinda tact on.

yeah, I looked at them and I already know what your narrative is going to be because its the same one you used to attack me earlier.

It hasn't gotten any better.

Explain 751, 842, 845, 863, 1627, and 1787.

Here are the posts you want me to "explain" and I will also quote the post where I literally did explain them and apparently you're just ignoring that fact.

751: Do you think llamarble was being surface level here? I think picking down through to what might happen if eddie is town and hammers is far deeper analysis than scum players usually fake. Do you disagree? If so, why? Provide me examples of that kind of analysis being faked by scum. Because I haven't seen it and I've been playing 10+ years.


Heres 842:

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

What is your strong SR on me based on? I expect some pretty strong evidence considering this is D1.

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you. This is more well poisoning.

Oh look I responded, telling you to read the entire game. Because honestly I still don't understand how you could not understand how I was scum reading you. Here are some of the posts that I was trying to direct you to look back on that apparently you're too fucking lazy to do so.

I consider what people say about their play, but I don't let people tell me why they're doing the things they do because people lie. You know damn well I know you're quick and I believe I've told you that I've read your wiki, but I also recall you have something of a poor memory, so I forgive you for not remembering that.

The problem with your actions is that the things you're doing also have significant scum motivations. Regardless of if you think you're doing them for other reasons, I'm not in your head, and I can't just trust you.

And I also am starting to be pretty sure you're scum because you're poking and drawing almost no reasonable conclusions. You start long discussions with me about nonsense about how reck is using different tools to find reads, and then disengage as soon as I try to explain. That's the biggest problem here. You're poking, but you don't seem to care about the responses to your pokes. At least not from the people you're poking. You seem to be singularly interested in the responses of other players, which makes me think you're more interested in finding where you can find an easy lynch, and not concerned about finding the correct lynch. This squares quite nicely with your vote on marquis also, which you have not fully explained after naked voting. It's nice to be on the highest vote getter who happens to not be posting much.

Actually, literally all the votes on marquis right now are atrocious.

Yeah, If you are going to accuse someone of something, you really shouldn't be doing it yourself. I am talking about you accusing me of just dropping things. You have done this a lot this game in my interactions with you. If you have a viable response to why you have done this, than so do I. And it's looking more and more like Marquis is Scum, so I'd like to know what you defense of him is based on here.

1) I didn't say you're going for the easiest lynch. I said you were going for an easy lynch, which I think "the second easiest lynch" would qualify as.

2) I don't agree with people just because they town read me. That's playing town 101. Please give me more credit than that, I've only been playing this game for 10+ years.

3) you seem to think that this read is coming out of nowhere out of one thing. That's not the case, and it doesn't come from lycan. Lycan's post just made me circle around to something thats been bugging me about your play for basically this whole game, which is what I laid out in my last post. You're poking everywhere, but you don't care about the persons response to the poking. You keep trying to figure out how the rest of the town is responding to the poking. That's the basis of me thinking that your motivation is not to find scum but to find where you can rally town support.

4) I am voting another scum read. I'm allowed to have multiple. Would happily switch to your wagon. I have been pretty transparent about how I feel about people. The reason I asked the question is that you haven't been. I have no way of knowing who you find scummy other than your vote, because you keep poking at cracks and moving on when a wagon doesn't form.

1) Semantics. If you really think you "caught" me for that then your experience does you no justice which leads me to

2) Appeal to authority

3) You talk about my flipping like it's a sure thing. Why?

4) Yeah, who you are Scum reading are Town, so you haven't impressed me with your reads, honestly.

Like that vibe becomes even stronger with the conclusion.

It's another reason I think you're likely to be scum.

You keep trying to subtly discredit scum reads on you. And I just mean like, argue and dispute arguments, because theres obviously town motivation to do that. What I mean is you keep trying to weasel around people scum reading you. One example of it is trying to cast all the people scum reading you as not understanding how you play, and saying they were doing so because they didn't like you playing mechanically, when in fact doing so was not the reason I had stated I was scum reading you, nor do I think its a fair characterization of the reason others were.

Similarly, in this post you seem to be suggesting that llama has not done the work, and subtly implying that his reads on you aren't to be trusted. At no point has llama said or even implied he hasn't read your iso, so you throwing it out there like that reads to me as an attempt to discredit his arguments instead of trying to interact with them.

It's disingenuous. You're not making good faith arguments.

I laid out in GREAT FUCKING DETAIL why I thought you were scum. I did it multiple times. The fact that you couldn't fucking remember is not a fucking scum tell for me.

With regards to me fighting the Scum reads on me: You fucking have meta on me of doing this very thing as Town. Why are you just sweeping that under the rug? Like that was a huge part of the game where havo and others were saying (I think Chill, your teammate was saying the same) that I was only accusing Havo of being Scum because they suspected me first. Like it seems you have drawn zero conclusions about that in the way I approach getting SR.

Llama gave zero details about most everything they have said. Why should I just take it on good faith that Llama has done that work? It seems you are acting in a way that you know Llama is Town already and not questioning that at all. Why?

845

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you

. This is more well poisoning.

You admitted yourself you know I have a bad memory. What the hell, man?

Oh my fucking god look I responded literally TWO POSTS AFTER.

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you

. This is more well poisoning.

You admitted yourself you know I have a bad memory. What the hell, man?

This isn't some passing remark, this is the fundamental and huge part of this game. I simply do not understand how you could possibly have a position on me and how I've played this game without some understanding of why I am scum reading you. Nor do I believe that bad memory means "don't remember a huge thing that happened like 3 days ago"

So basically, you are saying you don't think I have as bad of a memory as I actually do. How would that make me Scum? It would assume I couldn't/wouldn't have the ability to defend myself. I think it should be clear that I am not short of arguments, so where does this come from?

I'm not relitigating the argument. I'm just saying the claim you're making in 850, that llamarble was interpreting my words without context and that I had done nothing to explain them and that I had never confirmed he was correct is DEMONSTRABLY false.

You've basically just said that your hard defence of Llama is completely baseless because otherwise you would see that my interpretation of what you said is correct and Llama's is incorrect. Reason for this is the point I bring up (which is a valid one) is that under what condition do I always vote for you in that situation. This is a situation that has not been answered and so it is NEW. We haven't talked about this yet and if we have, I don't remember getting an answer. So what I am seeing here is although MY interpretation of what you said is true and Llama's is false, you still SR me and TR Llama. How do you account for this disparity?

I didn't respond to this because its bullshit. your entire premise is false. Llamarble was correct and you were wrong. Full stop. Furthermore, clearly you should know I would have this opinion because again we already had a full page long argument about this. You are wrong. The fact that you literally have no idea what colloquial language is is again not a reason I am scum.

So you didn't respond to it because it's bullshit? That's a fucking weak argument mate. If it was bull shit it should be easy as cake to disprove what I said, but you give nothing there. Under what justification do you feel you don't have to answer to this accusation against you? You still never answered even at this stage of the game.

Are you honestly accusing me of having the dastardly scum plan of hoping that people don't realize that 3 does not equal exactly 7?!?!

Is that legitimately what you think is happening right now?

Did I say that is what is happening now?

So I'm scum because I didn't feel like having a fight with you about whether someone saying "in the middle" to mean "not at the very beginning" is valid? Thats fucking bizarre dude. I think you are mistaking me being frustrated with the fact that you don't make ANY fucking sense for a scum tell.

Frankly I hate talking to you because I never understand what you're saying and it seems like at times you're purposefully misunderstanding the things I'm saying. What is the point of pointing out that 3 does not literally equal 7 if you're not trying to suggest I'm misreping? What is the actual fucking point you're making because honestly I'm still not fucking sure, so I have no idea what you even would want me to engage with you on here.

Well, it's not really a Scum tell that you said 3 days is midway through the day, but it is a Scum tell that you just completely drop the point when I say something that you can't explain from me as being a Town perspective. Like, even if you were to say something like "that's stupid" it would give me something from you that you acknowledged my point in the first place. Instead you don't say anything which means you either feel like I don't deserve a response or you know there is an undercurrent of Scum motivation for missrepping how much time is left in the day. Like I can come up with something like "shea said 3 days was midway through the day because he is trying to put it in people's heads to not utilize the full day to get as much out of Day Phase as possible." If I can come up with an explanation why it could be Scummy to say something, I would expect an answer for why you said what you said in the first place. So why DID you say it was midway through the day when it had only been 3 days?

@Ranmaru, Re: my reads changing with little progression. I have talked about this before on this site, see here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=72320

a lot of the problem is that its not like you really reevaluate, its like you shift from full town reading them to voting them with no warning and no indication that you were ever even remotely thinking of them as someone you might before.

Latest example being davsto.

Yeah, I do the opposite as well and change from Scum to Town reads this is just a part of my play, deal.

do you try to emulate this as scum?

I thought you didn't agree with self-meta. Why are you asking this question?

To answer, I think I have don't it in the past, but more often than not I try and have my reads "make sense" to Town members so it doesn't look like I am laking progression on people. It depends on the game. As Town, I just care more about constantly looking at things from different angles, so that is why my reads change like this. Ultimately, I would say switching reads like this is a tool I utilize, but it's not one I am constantly thinking about. Also, my perspective in doing this as Scum has more of an agenda, which is that I am usually in danger of getting lynched so I try and make it as hard to tie myself to my teammates as possible. And yes, I am actually pretty damn good at doing this considering I rarely see end game as Scum, but I still have a decent record as Scum. Really tho, much of my game as Scum is about confusing Town if I die. That is why I pull things like cross distancing with my teammates. I also try and make believable pushes on my teammates and it usually doesn't get them Lynched because I am actually horrible at pushing lynches because no one ever believes the reads I have. That's why it confuses Town so bad when I push my buddies - because they don't know what I was doing because my pushes make sense coming from me (at least on my teammates).

Literally already answered this. I was trying to catch you in a lie. I didn't. You weren't lying.

This is an incorrect answer. What you should have done is reference back to where you said you don't mind people giving self meta if asked, but that you don't like it when people use it as a defense. Why not include this in your answer? There is literally no reason not to unless you know what you are doing has ill intent.

It's almost as though context matters to the meaning of words, or something.

You are impressing me with how stupid you are.

TSQ basically stated that he had no doubt that I was Scum. The ONLY other explanation that TSQ can have is that he was saying he misunderstood my motive as Town and thought I would have voted a high BW as Town there and I am not buying that.

I never got an answer here btw.

These are just the ones that jump out to me, I am sure there are more.

[LicketyQuickety]

Like do you want me to PBPA him or something? I think he's town. I don't see the point in that, and I've tried my damndest to respond to him and nothing I do seems good enough to him so frankly I'm just willing to let him call me scum repeatedly for no reason at this point and not engage.

This is s Scum mindset, not a Town mindset.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Davsto,

I shouldn't say you are playing like bad Town. What I mean is that you are kinda playing a bit too straight forward for my tastes. As you have probably guessed by now, I don't like to say anything that is obvious and I don't like to repeat myself. This is both a strength and a weakness for me since I often come to conclusions that don't make any sense to other people or they just don't think what I am saying is valid. Again, this has been something I have dealt with my whole life.

As far as you just noticing I am making some decent points, all my points are like that. They just seldomly actually reach an audience that can identify what I am saying. This is why it usually takes people a few games to be able to tell whether I am Town or not. My Scum game is pretty obvious, once you know my meta, honestly.

[LicketyQuickety]

Votecount 3.6

Marquis(4)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Ranmaru

Dunnstral(2)

~ ActionDan, Thestatusquo

Cogito Ergo Sum(2)

~ Lycanfire, Davsto

Thestatusquo(1)

~ LicketyQuickety


Not Voting (2): Marquis, northsidegal

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

[LicketyQuickety]

This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)

Probably one of the towniest posts in this entire game, honestly.

What role would you give shea? Doesn't have to be one of those three.

[LicketyQuickety]

This game feels dead, let's shake it up a bit
I'm instating a little minigame: Let's call it Cop, Masonize, Vig. Here's how it works. You give one unique person for each of the slots Cop, Neighborize, and Vig. Cop is for someone you're unsure about (null to scumreads). Masonize is for those you trust (townreads you think are competent). Vig is for people you just want out of the game. Explain if you like.
I'll start.
Cop Davsto (has consistently been behind so I'm concerned he could be somewhat active lurking)
Masonize Ranmaru (town leader duh)
Vig Marquis (Their flip really should happen)

Probably one of the towniest posts in this entire game, honestly.

What role would you give shea? Doesn't have to be one of those three.

As in use on him or give to him?

Use on him. I suppose it would be better with the constraints of the three roles you picked.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm going to give a more creative answer for Gamma's inquiry about what roles we would use on people.

I would Cop Marquis. Reason for this is that it's the third day in a row we only really legit have one slot in danger of lynch. North could be right about Marquis being the designated mislynch for today.
I would Mason Davsto. Reason for this is that I am getting more and more confident in my TR I have on him with every one of his posts. I feel if I was a mason with him, because we have such differing perspectives, that this would lead to the best potential to solve the game for me. He would keep me grounded in a way and keep me from thinking too unrealistically.
I would Vig Shea. Reason for this is it would tell a shit ton about a ton of players in the game. It would also set my mind at ease in that I could feel more comfortable knowing how shea flips. If he ends up being Town, I can trust his reads more, if he is Scum I could see who was resistant to SRing him.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick what do you think of Marquis's vote on me and his reads right now?

I can see both Town and Scum motive for Marquis vote on you and reads. Like I talked about with CES in that I liked how he was saying things that were a bit contrary to the norm, I see the same thing for Marquis here. I have to ask myself what Scum motive Marquis has for voting you. I am drawing a blank other than that it's a fake out. This is especially true if Marquis has just resigned to be the lynch for the day like they said they were thinking. Like I said, on surface value, It's Town motivated. That said, given where Marquis power lies in this game regarding that they really don't have many people tied to him (other than shea IMHO), they could very well be looking at it from the angle of "Well, I getting lynched here, what can I do to make the biggest impact for my team?" This applies if Marquis is Town or Scum. If Marquis is Town, then they can at least feel good about getting their reads out there before they eat rope. If they are Scum, then they can view it as a freebie if by some miracle they don't get lynched this phase, which would make Marquis try and confuse Town on who is Scum with their reads and try and psych out Town from correctly guessing who is Scum based on Marquis reads.

Long story short, the TL;DR is that I think it's more Town motivated for Marquis giving the reads they have, but I can very easily see Marquis as Scum trying to play a game with Town knowing he is getting lynched this phase.

[LicketyQuickety]

Thank you. How are you reading Marquis overall at the moment?

Null, sadly.

[LicketyQuickety]

from what i can tell most people's marquis scumreads are just from him not doing anything, but i don't think that reality and the idea of him being scum go together realistically. like, the reads that he's given today are completely wild and seem utterly inconsistent with any scum agenda: quick and davsto scumread in 2358 to dunn/ran scumreads in 2517 and a ran vote just don't make sense to me if marquis is scum. it's utterly inconsistent with any realistic scum agenda i could think of and heavily indicates to me town that can't get into the game rather than scum. combine that with 1487 and you see why i'm confident that marquis is the lynchbait.

ran, i really think you need to get off of this wagon. vote cogito ergo sum with me?

This is more or less what I was trying to say about Marquis in my recent post about him.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, why do you town read Dan? I'm just trying to see what you see there.

Reason for the TR on Dan is because I don't think he either could or would be making the points he is making as Scum. I am realizing now how much of my game in TRing people is based on plausible deniablility. I just don't think it's realistic to think that Dan has made the point he has as Scum. I would expect him to at least consider me as a Scum read if he were Scum as one example of this. Like there was a point in time (hopefully we are past this now) where I was a serious contender as a Scum read to quite a few people. If Dan was Scum, it would be a perfectly realistic to assume he would do something to show I am Scum in one way shape or form. The other alternative is that he knew that eventually people would come around on TRing me, and that seems like kinda a hard order to fill, don't you think? I don't see an agenda in his posts at all. He's making new points while solidifying his old ones. This is just not something you expect Scum to do really. Like there are a lot of ways to play as Scum where you don't even have to focus on generating a TR on you with your posting style. In short, there is little motivation for Dan to point out the things he is point out as Scum. The only way I can see him as Scum is if he is intentionally trying to look Town and I just do not buy that line.

[LicketyQuickety]

Votes are looking a lot better at this point.

I may attempt to do some VCA next game day. No guarantees that I will have solid conclusions because it will be one of the first times I attempt to do a VCA of this scale.

[LicketyQuickety]

I want to see how shea responds to what he said he was going to get to like 2 days ago. After that, if people are still reluctant to vote Shea, I am going to ISO both Marquis and CES and see what's there. Not looking forward to this because I really don't like ISOing.

[LicketyQuickety]

I can't justify voting someone besides shea right now. Those ISO's will have to wait.

[LicketyQuickety]

Why do you say that LicketyQuickety ^?

I'll get that read list going shortly when I'm up to it

Because Shea said he would address my case against him. Instead he decides to forgo that to vote the highest BW.

[LicketyQuickety]

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are town
Ranmaru next tier
Cogito ergo Sum and TSQ, davsto, lycanfire are all null
northsidegal, actiondan lean scum
Marquis is scum

I need you to elaborate on the reasoning behind these reads.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, what's your read on CES right now?

Very Null atm. I think people know I had him as slight TR earlier in the game. Now with the Marquis wagon being the biggest wagon and CES who is pushing Marquis as the second biggest wagon, I think it's very likely one of these are Scum, but not both. Marquis is edging out on ECS so that

can

be interpreted as meaning that Scum would rather lynch Marquis than ECS. This would push me towards ECS being Scum over Marquis, but it's not a very strong read admittedly. The other thing to consider is that shea has voted Marquis. Given he's been on and pushed the two other Town mislynches, I don't think shea's vote says anything about his alignment if regardless of how Marquis flips. If Marquis is Town and ECS is Scum, however, then shea is going to have a lot to answer to. I mention shea because he is/was the pivotal vote in regards to what wagon is more likely to get lynched. Clearly he prefers a Marquis lynch over a ECS lynch. I think it would be beneficial if a few people tried to look at Shea's progression on ECS and especially look at how strong his read was there. I am apprehensive to say we should auto lynch the counter wagon of today on D4 if the flip we get today is Town because I think something better could

potentially

come up based on this days flip and the NK. Given that I think it is very likely either ECS or Marquis gets lynched today, this means that I will likely end up on a vanity wagon (shea) for the day and I am fine with that. Otherwise, I am leaning voting ECS atm, just because I typically like to go contrary to what is actually happening itt because, like I said, i think this is what produces content.

[LicketyQuickety]

Nothing is set in stone yet. ECS has a chance to improve his standing IMO. If he does, I will probably end up voting for Marquis. Marquis is likely to not really do anything else for the rest of the Day so that would be the independent variable here.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Quick – what's your read on dunnstral? Would you ever be willing to vote there today?

While waiting for Dunn's reasons for their reads which I asked of them, I am going to say I personally read Dunn as Town. I have Creature who is more wary of Dunn, and Dan, who I have a strong TR on, says Dunn is Scum. If Dan ends up on one of the major wagons, I am likely going to take this to mean that Dunn is most likely Town. I've detailed why I read Dunn as Town earlier in the game but CBA to fish for it atm. You could probably ISO me and do a search for "Dunn" to get some of my thoughts on them.

What is your read of Dunn? Where are you in your read on me currently? I think I remember your team saying I am Scum here. What makes you personally think I am playing similarly to the Newbie Baseball game where I was Scum?

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, will you vote CES now?

I think the correct EV play this Day is to lynch Marquis after thinking about it. Marquis cannot make it to LyLo by pretty much any means necessary. Plus there is, im my eye's, a 50/50 chance of Marquis flipping Scum anyways.

But like I said, I will prolly end the day on this shea vanity wagon. I am pretty widely TR at this point and I think I am playing fairly well at this point, so I am thinking Scum might try and knock me off. Better for me to vote who my strongest SR is at this point I think. I might jump on a wagon if things get wonky, but I don't see that happening.

[LicketyQuickety]

Vote with your town read instead of voting by yourself. Work with me.

You've already switched once, how do I know you're not going to do it again? See my problem here?

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm not going to switch again. Join me.

I have to think about this some more. I am going to try and make a more objective decision by looking at the hard data.

[LicketyQuickety]

Votecount 3.6

Marquis(4)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum, Dunnstral, Gamma Emerald, Thestatusquo

Cogito Ergo Sum(4)

~ Lycanfire, Davsto, northsidegal, Ranmaru

Thestatusquo(1)

~ LicketyQuickety

Ranmaru(1)

~ Marquis

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'll be waiting.

I probably cannot commit to anything until I see what Dan does. I might just sheep him, IDK yet.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Marquis

Dan has the hammer. He's the deciding vote.

[LicketyQuickety]

Can you tell me why you decide to vote Marquis? Why not join me on CES?

I considered the wagons.. Going solely based off that, the CES is probably the place I should be. That said, Marquis has been dead null for a lot of people all game long (if we take the average of everyone's red on him). On top of this, Marquis has been arguably the lurkiest player in the game (arguably just ahead of Dun). When I say lurking, I am talking about the quality of the posts as well as the frequency of the posts. I think Dunn needs to be pushed D4, regardless of how Marquis (who presumably will get lynched) flips. Both Marquis and Dunn are dead weight, and I don't want them anywhere near LyLo. That said, I am thinking there is a very good chance at least one of Dunn or Marquis is Scum here, so I don't think if we lynch those two that we end up on D5 with a LyLo situation.

[LicketyQuickety]

(Three scum since CES is also on it, but I mean two scum joined it recently)

LOL.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm not lynching ces over dunn nsg and marquis.

From my reread I didn't particularly like dunn at all. He and marquis are basically the same player in this game but one keeps getting tons of pressure and the other is getting none. Plus reck is screaming at me that dunn is scum in the discord.

Another thing that continually keeps coming up is LQ as a counter wagon to the town wagons. It's happened both days. I'm not huge on VCA but that does suggest to me that LQ is more likely to be town because there's not a lot of scum incentive to try to shift the wagon off of a town player that way, which means likely the early votes on his wagons were town as well.

VOTE: dunnestral

I want this before marquis and nsg. But I'd happily vote any of the three of them today.

@lycan

What do you think of my meta analysis on ces?

@LQ

is that a response to what cheet said?

Shea, why did you ask Lycan what he thought of your Meta analysis on CES given you are lynching Dunn, NSG, and Marquis over CES? Makes no sense why you would care about this point at this point in the game.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick

– I have something mathdino wanted me to share. He strongly agrees that shea is scum, and there's no way that he's ever scum

with

marquis (his most recent sheep of ran onto the marquis wagon should confirm that, i think). From VCA and from interactions, if shea is scum then cogito ergo sum is his most likely partner.

The people lynching marquis are also the people who

you

scumread – why join in on that wagon?

I disagree that shea can't be Scum with Marquis.. Context is important. If they are both Scum, then Shea is in a world of hurt if Marquis gets lynched and flips Scum and shea isn't on the wagon. I have yet to look at shea's read(S) on CES, but that's on the order. Depending on what I see there, I may have more to say.

Long story short, Marquis should NEVER make it to LyLo.

I don't think bussing makes sense in the first place here. Like, you're saying that if marquis got lynched and tsq wasn't on the wagon then he'd look bad, but marquis wouldn't be getting lynched here in the first place if he were scum – it was scum who started the wagon (and i think your reads match mine on this point such that you should agree). If cogito ergo sum were town scum would've almost certainly taken that opportunity, the same espeically so for dunnstral. Scum wouldn't need to be the trailing bus vote on a scum!marquis wagon because a scum!marquis wagon most likely wouldn't be going through in the first place. None of the pushes there have been forceful or convincing enough for them to

need

to sheep on it or look bad.

Marquis doesn't have to make it to lylo if we win before that.

You greatly underestimate how much a player like Marquis hurts Town... You may have a TR on Marq, but let's be honest here, there's just not enough to get the majority of players to TR Marqis at pretty much any stage of the game. That makes Marquis a HUGE liability. With CES, he is at least contributing something to the game and giving us something we can actually read whether for later in the game or just basically clear him based on a Scum!Marquis flip.

You are also way too confident that "we could win before we get to LyLo, so it won't matter." This is playing best case scenario, which is NEVER the way you want to approach the game - especially when you don't even have a Scum lynch and it's D3.

Basically, I think there is a Scum in Marq/Dunn and Marq/CES and CES/Dunn. That's kinda where I am atm.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

[LicketyQuickety]

So why are you voting with his preferred scum read?

I have no idea who you are talking about..

[LicketyQuickety]

Because Pre-Flip is bad.. Duh.

[LicketyQuickety]

Normally, you would vote the option scum don't want. Not the option they want. You both [Quick and Creature] are reading Shea as scum, yet you are fine with wagoning a null read for policy, while being

with a scum read

.

Yeah, that's dumb because Scum bus.

[LicketyQuickety]

This is white flag.

That doesn't all the sudden mean Scum don't bus.

[LicketyQuickety]

why would scum be bussing right now?

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

[LicketyQuickety]

Answer the question.

Why would it make a difference?

[LicketyQuickety]

Go ahead and answer both questions. Otherwise it shows that you have something to hide.

LOL. I really don't give a shit what you are thinking about me atm. The only reason you are SRing me right now is because I have a read you don't like.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm taking a break from arguing with you baboons.

Got some other reading to do. BBL.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick is being intentionally obtuse so he can be read as town when he is actually scum. NSG, since Quick doesn't want to answer the question, go ahead and answer it for him to show why he doesn't want to give that up to town.

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

[LicketyQuickety]

Prod dodge am non sober

This is why Marquis needs to be lynched.

[LicketyQuickety]

Also not lynching CES in the face of this
Closest read there is null town because it feels like his slot is treated the same way by scum as mine and I still see his persistence on me as irrational when scum would probably be trying to cast a wider net of focus

Why would Scum try and cast a wider net? He's the first on your wagon.

[LicketyQuickety]

Lq would you vote Ran today.
I think it's still slightly possible and is by far the most likely scum flip

I'm probably not coming off of you without some really solid play by you.

[LicketyQuickety]

Yeah and what happens after I flip town? He probably gets lynched next from a combination of backlash and lot of other slots that have 1 or 2 people townreading them
CES isn't a stupid scum player he'd know if I get lynched he has nothing else of significance or to offer town. I think it's way more likely he's a tunneling townie rather than scum who's had to think about the overall gamestate
Also I wanna sleep so eveyrone stop talking for a bit OK thanks

Well, you've shown CES is more likely to be Town from your POV. I don't see my vote moving because of that.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick

: My read changed due to this: 2380, this: #2410, and this: #2487. This too: #2629. You vote your consistent town read, for pressure. It's another weird vote like your vote on myself in Day 2. The next link is a very forced reaction. The third is you lying about Shea not answering to you, which lines up with you being obtuse as scum to rile him up, you don't care to sort him. The last is you voting Marquis without giving a conclusion or talking to me about it. You just vote him, even though he's null to you and you are voting on policy. Your reads change at the drop of a hat, and your push on me and Shea is obtuse on purpose to get the reaction from others that you are town.

Some things you are saying here I take issue with as a matter of principle, but let me address this case as a whole first. When you say I am consistently voting my TRs, I am not, tho it may look like it if you aren't paying close enough attention. My whole game as Town is about taking alternate perspectives and giving them a voice. I feel this is the primary reason I have a good Town game and has nothing to do with my direct influence on the game. I have talked about this before, even in this thread. Talking an alternate path forces Scum to have to adjust and causes Town to pause and think twice about what they are doing and why they are doing it. Also, where you see me voting my TR's I see a dynamic progression of the angles I am taking. You have to ask yourself what the motive is for me as Scum to take this line of thinking and implement it, and what's more, be cognizant of it and detail exactly what I am doing itt and explaining why I am doing what I am doing. This is a line that doesn't make much sense at all as Scum.. Like I said (ask North about this because North has seen I think my most recent Scum game) I try and make my pushes make sense when I am Scum.. That way I don't have to worry about making the argument I am making with you here and now. What I am doing now, is completely wild and unpredictable. What motive do I really have to play this way as Scum? Also, I get you are able to "find a case" on me. I am not impressed by that, most people if they are somewhat rational can do that if they put their mind to it.

Now I will address the specifics of your case.

Once again, you completely ignore the context of why I was voting for CES in the first place in the first post you linked. I remember what happened there.. Someone (forgot who) was asking me to consider CES as Scum. I think I said not too much before my vote there that I was TRing him. I decided to take that person up on their offer and poke at CES to see what happens. My reasoning was actually not bad for voting CES there, but you don't see the details, just the stance.
Second example where I talk about shea lying: I had already gone through the process of noticing that Shea was trying to use what I thought was a personality trait in an order to subversively implicate two people as Scum because they shared this similar thing. Again, you are ignoring the context of that completely. So there was some progression there, which you refuse to see.
Shea still has yet to actually respond to that post where you say I wrongfully accuse him of, but that's a load of shit since Shea himself admits to not responding to everything I have accused him of. If shea is willing to admit that he hasn't responded to things and I make a case out of him not responding to things, how on earth does that make me Scum? At the very least that should be viewed as NAI and just solid play, not Scummy at all.
Your fourth quoted post just seems like it is there on some random chance that it was a recent vote that I made. You even commented that it was "interesting" at the time. I then go on to explain why I was on that wagon to begin with. Again for like the 2798537 time, you fail to look at the context surrounding why I had the stance I had.

[LicketyQuickety]

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Your first point is really the only decent one. Scum don't really want to bus as a matter of principle. They bus because one of their teammates is not carrying their own weight. If you are in a war and you are in a fox hole and you are with two other comrades and one of them is injured really really badly and is yelling and screaming and drawing all kinds of attention to themselves, it's more coast effective to kill that comrade so that you and the other guy can learn to live another day. That's one interpretation of Scum being on the Scum!Marquis wagon.

I completely disagree that if Marquis is Scum there are other Town lynches that would be equally easy to push as the Marquis wagon. All the other wagons have been tried and failed. We are left with a choice between two lurkers, which I think is very appropriate given it's D3.

It makes no difference if Scum don't get credit for being on the Marquis lynch or not. What you are arguing here is that in the case that Marquis is Scum, that Scum are not going to be on his wagon because they will not get any credit for being there. This is a wrong perspective to have. The cost of defending Marquis here if they are Scum far outweighs the negligible benefit of letting Marquis go and being on the wagon. It's not always about what Scum gain, but what they have to lose as well.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick is being intentionally obtuse so he can be read as town when he is actually scum. NSG, since Quick doesn't want to answer the question, go ahead and answer it for him to show why he doesn't want to give that up to town.

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

I want a response to this when you get to it tomorrow, Ranmaru.

[LicketyQuickety]

CES, what is your read on Dan?

[LicketyQuickety]

Only other person I can see myself voting rn is Dunn.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

First I've heard of this
What are his other thoughts

I don't really know. He's rarely even on Discord.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mathdino wants to hear creature's thoughts on the marquis wagon, quick.

Creature wants a Shea lynch over CES. That's what he has said about the game today.

First I've heard of this
What are his other thoughts

I don't really know. He's rarely even on Discord.

Just checked Discord (I don't check it all the time either).

Creature wants to know what Spiffeh's read on Marquis is.

[LicketyQuickety]

Also, Creature thinks Dunn is Town, so that gives me a lot of pause voting Dunn because I think Creature is good at reading people like Dunn.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Dan,

Would like to know what you think of NSG.

Also, given that the votes end up at 5-5 a piece, where would you vote between CES and Marquis? How have your reads on those players changed from what they were if they have changed?

[LicketyQuickety]

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

They change by my feeling and by your actions, not reads. You stating I am scum reading you for not liking your read is an obvious misrepresentation. Your tone when addressing me here is much different then: #2442 or this: #2666. It makes me wonder why you take on that tone when I'm bringing up a concern. You bring up 'why you do things as town' yet you still have not answered my #1790. Compare the scum motivation and town motivation and explain why you think I don't have town motivation for what I'm doing, and then I'll explain to you the town motivation. I also am wondering why you didn't respond to my #2350. I'm fine with your Shea read. If you presented a serious case like you are doing so in your 2689, I'd look into it. I didn't get your push in those pages when I voted you, it seemed like a distraction rather then a push to wagon Shea. Also another thing to note that is you always omgus me. Why do you always omgus me?

I don't think you understand what I was saying because you in no way answered what I was saying, at all.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, then please, answer my questions, and then explain to me what you were trying to convey in a concise case.

Nope, I'm done answering your pointless questions.

[LicketyQuickety]

LQ what is your read on Ranmaru?

Pending.

[LicketyQuickety]

I think LQ is thinking critically about who to lynch and why, for starters, and other things besides. For example I think something like 2688 encapsulates that, and it's a town post in my eyes.

As for gamma, I will never rely on someone else's read and definitely not on a meta read. If I remember correctly, Shea said gamma unvotes a lot, or something to that effect. And for you, it was something along the lines of gamma being unsure of himself when town and more confident as scum. I don't remember completely. I read both once upon a time. In any case I think that's my problem to solve and just because I physically put gamma "low" doesn't mean he is there in reality. He could be the paragon of towniness if I read him that way; I just have to actually do that. But I really really really really really really really don't like the prospect and the pain that will entail if I steel myself and read all the posts and all the quote pyramids in them.

I think I say it better (on the reason I was debating being on Marquis or not) here in post 2632.

Also, see this post:

Prod dodge am non sober

Notice how when Marquis Proges that they suddenly have a slew of other thoughts on the game that can be somewhat reasoned out that Marquis actually has a pretty good idea of what is going on itt. Why this is important is because it shows that when Marquis earlier says they can't keep up it looks like a complete farce. Someone said it best when they said Marquis shows up, makes a bunch of vaguely Pro-Town posts and then disappears. What about this mentality is Townie?

[LicketyQuickety]

Can someone explain to me why Marquis just goes full ballistic in d1 twilight
like I'm not sure of the scum motivation either tbh
besides that it's been either excuses or small smatterings of activity that I'm not sure if I like or not

Before you get to that point, you have to believe that Marquis earnestly had not idea what was happening in the game, since they voted me after the hammer.

[LicketyQuickety]

And Ranmaru said he wasn't going to change who he was voting. He's completely temperamental! Instead of him getting a better and better idea of who is Scum, he instead changes his reads wildly depending on his whim. In short, he's not the type of player you want to follow/sheep.

[LicketyQuickety]

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are townI still think LQ is town. Everytime there's some heated back and forth (with shea e.g.) the read gets a little fuzzy but then there's generally some (imo) :good posting: a bit later to reaffirm it. If you want I can dig up a couple.

I'd like you to do this in regards to Shea vs me so that Lycan can get his head out of his ass and see me for Town like I am.

[LicketyQuickety]

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are townI still think LQ is town. Everytime there's some heated back and forth (with shea e.g.) the read gets a little fuzzy but then there's generally some (imo) :good posting: a bit later to reaffirm it. If you want I can dig up a couple.

I'd like you to do this in regards to Shea vs me so that Lycan can get his head out of his ass and see me for Town like I am.

EBWOP

[LicketyQuickety]

@Ranmaru,

Does part of the reason that you see the Scum team as Dan/North/me because we are all defending each other?

[LicketyQuickety]

SCUM [Action Dan > NSG > Quick | Marquis > Dunnstral | Davsto > Shea > CES > Lycanfire > Gamma > Ranmaru] TOWN

Unvote; Vote: Action Dan

This is the best chance at lynching scum today. We are throwing all claims that 'So and so would not pick scum' out the window because that is harming our reads. Look at the play of these individuals, look at my reads, and tell me, does it line up with pro-town play at all, then make a conclusion.

How on earth does you conversation you had with Dan just prior to this make you think that Dan is Scum? I ask because otherwise it looks like you are asking questions and not caring about the answers.

[LicketyQuickety]

Your explanation here seems to say that you're just accusing me of tunnelling, so I still have no clue why you actually think I'm scummy. The example you quote was just me making a self-deprecating joke (if I'm wrong on Marquis too, my reads have been shit so that's not exactly a pleasant scenario to consider) but even if you read it straight I really have no clue as to how me suggesting a theory and then shooting it down would be scummy.

It may be a "joke", but it still looks like you writing off a sane conclusion of what could have influenced the nightkill "because Marquis" and going with the weird one instead. Feels like scum!tunneling, it doesn't feel quite... right. You're not considering other possibilities at all, whereas town do generally have some changes in their read.

I literally state in #2334 that I think the "sane conclusion" is more likely. You're reading stuff into it that's just not there - I just gave an example of a scum team for which my thinking was applicable and then made a self-deprecating comment about how the chosen example didn't include Marquis (with a bonus fragrance of pushing Marquis); if I was purely Marquistunneling, I'd just have given an example scum team that included Marquis.

Okay that makes a bit more sense but you can't deny you worded that badly and confusingly.

Also you're acting like it's the entirety of what I think wrong with your play and like this being slightly off disproves my entire scumread on you - it's not, your attitude is just scummy overall.

It's Day 3. Whether the reasons for your vote are "he's too suspicious of Marquis!" or "he's too suspicious of Marquis!+Dude's just scummy" with no supporting evidence seems like much of a muchness; it's just weaksauce.

a) My read is more than you just being "too suspicious of Marquis", it's the way you're behaving that doesn't seem like a townie progression of reads (along with my gut reading you scumminly). I can keep giving things that come off as unnatural about your read, like how Marquis made a bunch of posts about a day ago and you haven't referenced or looked at a single thing beyond a single line in any of them - stuff like that is

not

how town act towards a scumread that is that strong.
b) You say that like you've given plenty of strong evidence for your Marquis vote. I've just skimmed through your ISO - all I can see is you saying he's lurking, has an "awkward tone", and a single-game meta. Get off your high horse here. My reasons for voting you are not exactly a huge amount weaker than those of your Marquis reasons. You've barely given anything on him this entire game day.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that your scumread on me is just too convenient - I'm someone who's voting you who's maybe not the towniest or best at explaining reads, so you've taken that opportunity and jumped upon it, especially odd as pretty much every previous comment about me has seemed to have me on the town side of things - I'm very suspicious of that so suddenly changing over something as minor as this, and that it's related to a vote on you feels like it's not coincidence. You are becoming more and more scummy the more attention I pay to you.

This makes sense to me. On top of this, I really disliked CES' last post. I would have to look at it again to see what exactly I didn't like about it, but I almost think CES is worth a vote be me at this point.

[LicketyQuickety]

Votecount 3.11

Marquis(3)

~ Cogito Ergo Sum(21), Thestatusquo(66), LicketyQuickety(189)

Cogito Ergo Sum(3)

~ Lycanfire(33), Davsto(18), northsidegal(39)

Dunnstral(2)

~ ActionDan(30), Marquis(22)

ActionDan(1)

~ Ranmaru(200)


Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald(81), Dunnstral(10)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

MOD REMINDERS

Thestatusquo needs a prod. The last post was at: 2/23/2018 1:30:00 PM

FLAVOR

This is an automated vote count generated by a tool written by MathBlade. It goes much smoother with exact votes but will try to detect bold votes and misspellings. If you have issues during this beta, please get MathBlade.

Performed 15 calls in 30 seconds. With an average of 2.04713333333333 seconds per call.

[LicketyQuickety]

Actually, I am staying on Marquis because of their switch of vote onto Dunn.

[LicketyQuickety]

Actually I'm reading but not taking much in otherthan
VOTE: dunnstral
Because practicality But Ran flipping around feels like much stronger scum knows I'll still be on the table for later. I don't think Ran will get agreement for lynching but I do independently think Dunn is scum for similar opportunism and fits into the same view point

@Marquis,

Can you point to a specific post where Dunn was being opportunistic and detail why you think so?

[LicketyQuickety]

I don't really see it still but in CES's comments about his read on me he said that he'd have liked to see more about the townread I gave Eddie. I have to ask, did you not agree with it? originally it was because I'd never think Eddie would take a scum PM as long as his team had any town PMs, which is why I thought there was 99.9% chance eddie was town coming into the game. But considering your vote D2, I highly doubt I'd have changed your mind and you were cognizant of it, it seems. So why the need to reiterate it to you? would that have made you unvote Eddie?

I just think it didn't stand out to me initially; it's not like I was scum reading him at the time. There were definitely times in D2 where I wavered and was close to switching back to Marquis.

This looks like a really weird interaction.. They both seem to be on the defensive of each other. I don't know what this means. I almost think this is T vs S, but I am usually very hesitant to label things as that because they are so hard to spot.

@Lycan, what do you think of this interaction here?

[LicketyQuickety]

The team of [AD, Quick, NSG] Seems competent and confident enough to pick scum

since people state that they each would pick town.

The fuck?

[LicketyQuickety]

Meaning: Since people believe you wouldn't pick scum, picking scum would fool everyone saying 'this person would not pick scum'. Which is why I state we are throwing all the 'this person wouldn't pick this' claim out the window. We are solely looking at in game actions.

Honestly, I think that is one of the dumbest things said itt so far.

[LicketyQuickety]

UNVOTE:

It seems that it's no longer a choice between Marquis and CES, so I am going to try and do some more reading and see where that leads me.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm going to ISO CES.

[LicketyQuickety]

His Marquis obsession is a bit silly

It just seems silly because you're probably barely paying attention to Marquis. Do you even know he's got some weird vote on Ranmaru right now?

he seems to actively discredit any theory that doesn't include Marquis-scum.

Can you give examples of that?

I made it this far in CES' ISO.. I don't think he is Scum.

He's been pushing the same angle that Marquis is Scum the whole game. This is a strategy with diminishing returns as Scum. As Town, however, It makes a lot more sense. It reminds me of a game I played with Thor665 where I was Scum and he caught me on something I thought was a nothing. He was 100% correct on his read on me. I feel like that is what is going on with CES' read on Marquis. I also feel like his read on Eddie was justified. I also take note of what he says about North misrepping him in his stance on Eddie.

VOTE: Marquis

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, please answer Lycanfire's #2369.

You're like one of those people who think they are being productive by doing a lot of busy work, but in reality, you are accomplishing very very little.

[LicketyQuickety]

What I find more suspicious is that you were right that her CES vote didn't really seem to have any backing to it, you ask, and she ignores the question. So: NSG, why did you vote CES in the very beginning?

I'd like to know this as well.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm trying to take off my confbiasing glasses..

I am open to the idea that North is Scum. I think there is some reasonable motivation for North to do what they are doing as Scum. As of now though, North remains a Town lean.

[LicketyQuickety]

Can you elaborate on why she remains a town lean? I'm just curious in seeing your point of view.

She remained a TR because of prior STRONG reasons to TR her.

I started reading her ISO.. I got to her 20th post and that was enough to say, yeah, North is almost certainly Town here.

I made a post about what I thought was influencing North's reads (more than should be). Let me try and find that post.

Here is the post:

My read on North is a bit subtle. I think his teammates are influencing him more than they should and that North should depend on their own reasoning. I say this because I think North is a pretty good player and is logical. I think North would be doing BETTER in this game without their teammates actually. I think North probably has more on the ball than most of their teammates. That said, I think Mathdino is a smart guy. I think his read on me that I am Scum comes from what he expects from me based on sitechat where I come across as less off the wall than I do in a Mafia game. I think North's team overall struggles from being overly logical and not enough intuition.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Northsidegal
There has been an influx of evidence dug up recently that has made me suspect her. I think a vote should be in order at this point.

Do share what this influx of evidence is...

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm fine with this. [Action Dan, NSG, Quick] are my pool of lynches I am ok with today.

Unvote; Vote: NSG

Why is North Scum?

[LicketyQuickety]

@Ranmaru,

I have no fucking idea why you have Davst as solid Town in your "Game Changing Reads." That is a read that needs a lot more fleshing out.

[LicketyQuickety]

Ran, you made the point that people who hate scum would take it for the wifom value. I want you to look at the names of every single player who has flipped scum in this tournament. Not making any further comment there. Just look at them.

This is gambler's fallacy. I'll check your team but it's not fair to attribute the thinking of other teams to yours.
Predicting specific response by Marquis in 3...2...

No, it's NOT Fucking Gambler's Fallacy. WTF?

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Northsidegal
There has been an influx of evidence dug up recently that has made me suspect her. I think a vote should be in order at this point.

Do share what this influx of evidence is...

The lack of questions answered, the deduction that NSG's activity patterns might be from scum, etc. etc.

I think I heard a

might

in there... How does this make you so sure that North is Scum?

[LicketyQuickety]

Gamma is getting more and more interesting. I think that is where I am going next.

[LicketyQuickety]

Dunn has a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Llamarble is essentially a naked vote, nothing to analyze there.
Postie looks more or less like a naked vote as well.
Wgeurts is voting marquise because there is nothing better to vote atm. This looks kinda opportunistic.
GE vote is prolly the Scummiest of all of them, tbh. Weird that they say Llama is wrong about Postie but right about Marquise. How does GE know Llama is Town if they have such a disparity of reads?

Creature thinks Eddie, Dan and North are Town.

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

You're capable of more than this as town and my team mates don't think you've been towny either.

Honesly yeah I agree on this post being weird. I was able to make something of Dunnstral's vote, and I never said I knew Llamar was town.

What did you see in Dunn's vote on Marquis that you thought didn't need any explanation?

[LicketyQuickety]

P 14 is all Town.

[LicketyQuickety]

I also thought 395 was weak sauce and I hate that Shea is TRing Gamma for that.

[LicketyQuickety]

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him.

No better than random is the

literal definition

of a null read.

even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

I feel like you're just trying to find new ways to making it seem like I had a big read change; it's just not true. I detailed exactly the nature of my read change in #1596; do you think I should not have been willing to hammer Screenplay at a time when no better lynch was forthcoming?

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you.

Getting the right people lynched is how you win, so that does tend to be my focus, yes. I tried to engage with Eddie, I've been trying to understand where you're coming from (I'd still like a response to the busywork question), but at the end of the day that sort of stuff is only interesting as far it changes who I want to read. I'm here to win the game, not for brownie points.

especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

I know this is a concept floating for some reason but this is actually the completely opposite of how it works. Eddie (and Postie) flipping town simply makes it more likely that Marquis is scum - there's only 3 scum and quite a few people look townie to various degrees so it's only become more likely that Marquis is scum. If you're looking for someone and there's 2 man-sized bushes, it's 50-50 they're in the first one but if the first bush is empty, then it's very likely Marquis is hiding in the other one.

I'm also currently in a reread but that's admittedly going fairly slowly - figuring out scum #2 doesn't seem quite as important as getting scum #1 lynched.

No conclusion so it means nothing.

[LicketyQuickety]

i've given reasons in the past for why i think you're scum. i also get the feeling from the way you're framing things here that marquis is the scumteam's designated mislynch (this combined with dunnstral's later vote).

I acknowledge that you've mistakenly claimed I had a town read on Tchill before in order to paint my hammer in a scummy light; that was part of it.

don't play word games and pretend like saying that his wagon was no better than random doesn't at the very least imply that you're townreading him. even if we only strictly consider what you said as saying "i wouldn't be willing to lynch there" (and i would presume you wouldn't take random lynches), then the point i'm making is that, to copy a bit of your own notation, your pathway from [not willing to lynch tchill] -> [willing to lynch screenplay] was weak.

i also think that since pretty much the end of day one all you've done is made a decision on who you want lynched and voted them – i don't see any genuine gamesolving or scumhunting from you. especially given eddie flipping, someone you had at 55% scum second only to marquis, i would have expected town you to recalibrated or taken a new look at the game or at your reads. instead, all you've done is just say that the exact same person is obvious scum.

VOTE: Cogito Ergo Sum

To be fair it seemed likely that Screenplay was salvaging a scumslot upon switching in. Otherwise, T-chill would have picked up the slack himself instead of lurking out. That's on T-chill. (Eddie too) It's bad play to lurk out as town.

You say you haven't seen any gamesolving or scumhunting from CES. Technically, he is scumhunting, and he is pushing for Marquis. Gamesolving, he isn't doing as much as I am, but that is his playstyle. This may be your first time playing with him, but he typically plays in a concise manner. I think Llamarble said that usually if he's town, he's pretty accurate. I think I have a good understanding of the game, and I feel Marquis does too. That's why Marquis knows how to pop in and seem town. I don't understand why you have had a null-town read on him all game though. I think you are also being unfair to CES. He asks you to look at Marquis's meta and you say you didn't look into it. #584 So, have you looked into that yet? Right now the person who needs to re-evaluate is you.

@Ran, this post is so solid.. What happened to this?

[LicketyQuickety]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

This is actually a good solid point.

You make a lot of noise, but sometime you really make sense.

IDK why you think I am Scum for "confusing" Town when you are essentially doing the exact same thing with how often you are changing your reads/votes.

[LicketyQuickety]

Okay but my point was you can't make the same analysis for all teams. Gambler's Fallacy just sounded like the right term.

You're making the same generalization like you did about your point with bussing. Are you saying that there's something different to that analysis when it comes to me? If so, please elaborate. If not, this doesn't mean anything.

What bussing generalization?
Also the point is that each team makes their own decisions. I need to see each one's and analyze those.

You need to pick up the slack!!! <- Yes, this is multiple exclamation points, deal.

I think Gamma is dumb or Scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

I want everyone in town (especially those town reading Quick) to look at #2725, and then explain how Quick is progressing the town win condition over the scum win condition.

Oh, please.

you made you answer about why I am Scum, not having hardly anything to do with answering what I was actually saying. Anyone can cherry pick posts like this from my game and say "look, Scum" but you fail to recognise all the posts I pretty much never make as Scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

Gamma is not dumb, he's making good points. (That I in fact would not have thought of) Gamma's town.

Quit putting yourself on a fucking pedestal... I haven't seen you catch any Scum yet.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here, I'll help you out:


If your claim is that he "wolfy jumped in the thread" and made a vote based off of wanting to "push a wagon" you'd think maybe he'd have chosen actually a wagon, instead of just randomly throwing a vote at the wind in a place where no one else was.

More to the point, I find it deeply unsettling that you think this is the most important thing to go off of at this point. We have 10 whole pages bruh.

VOTE: gamma emerald

I thought others voted before him, huh
UNVOTE:

Also I'm not wild about the fact that your first instinct was to attack me instead of trying to figure out what I meant. As town when someone says something to me that on face doesn't make sense my first reaction is generally to try to clarify, not to fos them.

I thought you were trying to br obtuse, now I see you were right I'm no longer FOSing you

Ok but why are you voting dunn? Your vote for him is nonsense and there's a lot of scum motivation to park on the lurker who is literally doing nothing, and then make a big show about it as if you had some hyper special read on him and you didn't understand why others didn't. What do you think about the literal anything else thats happened in this game? Why do you think that dunn is the best vote when there is so much going on? Why were you unaware that it wasn't a wagon vote when you've placed your entire sorting efforts in this game into figuring out what happened in that one random early vote?

Okaaaay you're blowing this way out of proportion and I don't like it. I literally unvoted the second I realized my mistake. And the reason I thought there was a wagon there was I remembered votes on someone Llalmarble suspected, and knew some people were suspecting Marquis, so I thought the votes were on her. I get that there is some scumminess to what I did, but I didn't just votepark, I actually thought I had a point. And I've asked other questions and made other reads, so what I'm seeing here is you boiling down my content to one misguided push. Given that and the fact Something_Smart is telling me not to trust you, I feel comfortable with this.
VOTE: TheStatusQuo

This is one of the weirdest progressions I have ever seen..

IDK why Shea doesn't press Gamma on that mistake Gamma made more than this and instead later ends up TRing Gamma based on his 395 which I personally found severely lacking, and I don't get this rapid turn around from Gamma on Shea...

Someone said Gamma's 180 on Shea is Townie, I completely disagree. It makes me think there is a very real change of there being at least one Scum in Shea/Gamma. This is due to Shea's turnabout read on Gamma based on 395. It just doesn't seem like Gamma deserves to be let off the hook that easily.

People (pretty much everyone) are saying Gamma is Town here. Since I think there is one Scum in Shea/Gamma I'm going back to this:

VOTE: TSQ

[LicketyQuickety]

*chance, not change.

[LicketyQuickety]

Here, is where as town, you'd admit you were wrong, and re-evaluate. Yet you stick to your guns and can't seem to write anything because you know he is right. He defended himself well. You still being confident on CES doesn't make sense alongside that.

This is actually a good solid point.

You make a lot of noise, but sometime you really make sense.

Then how does that affect your read on NSG? Would you vote her?

I am voting back on shea for reasons mentioned.

[LicketyQuickety]

That's nice.

[LicketyQuickety]

You should feel privileged that I gave you an answer of any kind. It doesn't matter how I answer because you are not going to factor my answers to you into your analysis anyways.

[LicketyQuickety]

Happy to VOTE: tchill.

I'm pretty happy with gammas contributions especially 395 since our tiff. I still want him to find a good vote because I get the impression that he doesn't actually think I am one, but he seems way more engaged in trying to find one than he was before.

I don't really have any strong suspicions from current events, but I can at least
UNVOTE:
While I review the game.

Like... WTAF is this shit?

[LicketyQuickety]

The "No Doubt" post.

And I know why people are Scum reading me. I think Lycan hit on this point and so did Postie a bit.

It's because people are interpreting my play as "mechanical" and for some reason they thing this means I am Scum. Instead, I would say I am trying to play in a logical way with a big picture outlook on the game. That means I am not going to get into specifics of relating what Player X did at point A and compare that to what Player Y did at Point B. I have never played that way so if people expect me to play that way, I am sorry to say that they will be disappointed. How I play is looking at posts in isolation and seeing if they are internally logical insofar of what I know to be logical comparing this to what I think is the correct way to play. I sometimes compare a post they made somewhat recently to what they are saying, but I am not going to remember something that someone said on page 5 at this point. I will, however, ISO players occasionally and I will usually do this if someone asks me to.

I don't think your summary up there is even remotely responsive to why I am scum reading you. I don't give a damn if you play mechanically or not. I laid out in detail why I think you're scummy, and its mainly because I don't actually see you doing the thing you say you're doing here. I see you starting conversations and interactions with people and then trying to gauge town reactions to those things and disengaging with the pokes as soon as its clear people aren't going to start voting the person. Like, I have no doubt you would have voted me after our exchange if a couple of other people had.

You have NO DOUBT. Is what you are saying... Do you see why this is a problem? Town ALWAYS has an element of doubt. So either you are Scum, or you are trying to read me making assumptions about my play that you have not idea about. Also, you are basically assuming that I should OMGUS you in that spot. Also, what you describe as me "dropping" a point of interest is perfectly in line with my Town play. I have talked about this before, but I am not good at Town because I actually have any ability to solve the game, but rather that I take perspectives that don't often occur which produces content that would otherwise not be in the game. So what you are assuming here is that I would follow up to make a conclusion about what I had pushed earlier, but that is not really the way I play. I just keep taking different angles on things all game long without really looking at what the results of what I am pressing is later in the game. I even highlighted this basic concept when I said I wasn't someone who was going to look at what Player X does at point A and compare that to what Player Y does at point B.

In short, your Scum read on me is based on an assumption about how I play and how I approach the game, which you do not provide the evidence for that I do operate this way.

Do you think the methods others are using on you are ineffective or disingenuous? These are different claims, and I think one might be true, but also I don't think its the one you're claiming.

I don't see how I could have any way to answer this without knowing the alignments of the people who are coming at it from the angles they are. There is motivation for both to be true, so I can't definitively say that it's one or the other. For one person it could be that they are ineffective in trying to sort me and another person might be disingenuous. Since I think it's pretty much equally possible for both given I am someone who people generally do not understand too well in a setting like this, which would mean people's methods to sort me are not a good litmus test to tell if I am Town or Scum because they are trying to measure the wrong things, it makes things extremely complicated and I generally don't like to go neck deep in details to deduce who is telling the truth and who is not. I prefer to work intuitively and this is in large part why I am so hard for people to understand at times.

I think this game has become too lopsided. Lots of people voting a single lurker for being a lurker (Marquis) with most people on the wagon having little demonstrated reason for being there. Then you have most of the active players who are fighting amongst themselves mostly and a lot of people who have very little content who are getting by with not doing a whole lot of anything. The state of the game isn't a good one for Town currently - especially considering that a lot of people have expressed that they are Scum read me, whom I consider myself to generally be a Town leader when I am Town. I cannot yet tell who or how many Scum players are going to try and actively push my lynch, but there will most certainly be Scum on my lynch if it happens, so look at those on my wagon upon my lynch.

Homie you were literally voting for that lurker ONE PAGE AGO. With NO EXPLANATION YOURSELF. Literal naked vote. Then you jumped on another wagon without demonstrating or explaining any sort of scum read there. WHY are you voting TChill? WHY did you vote marquis? People aren't scum reading you because you're mechanical, they're scum reading you because you don't seem to care who is lynched and because you're not telling us what your reads are and not explaining them. In the absence of information, what the hell else am I supposed to think?

I thought I provided a fine conclusion for voting Marquis. I'd say I gave more reason for being there than anyone else even. I did give a naked vote, but I then later gave a pretty detailed explanation why I thought it was a good idea to push Marquis. I'm willing to go back there if Marquis doesn't end up doing anything but right now I want to press Chill because I have found his reasoning lacking for the reads he has.

And I think you are projecting an awful lot here. Lycan explicitly stated that he thought I was playing mechanical and that was the basis for his SR on me. Postie has also said similar things stating that Postie expected more from me insofar as I am not as forceful or chaotic that RC expects me to play. Llama really has yet to state a reason for why I am Scum, so you are just assuming you know the reason that Llama is SRing me. Who does that leave? Marquis? Marquis is not much more than an OMGUS. She still has yet to address what I asked them to do to get involved in the game. Who else does that leave? IDEK who else is Scum reading me, but a lot of people are strongly TRing me as well. So what do you make of those players? Are they all my Teammates trying to cover for my ass? What's your theory for why People are so polarized on me?

What shea is implying here is that I would have voted him if more people would have... Why? Why does he think this? Regardless of me pressing this "no doubt" point, he never really gives an answer for why he thinks I am someone who (under unknown conditions) would have voted him if more people would have. Where does this come from? He's had plenty of chances to talk about why he thinks this, but he never says why he thinks this... It just ends up being completely baseless! Like, as TOWN do I jump on the BW? As SCUM do I jump on the BW? As EITHER ALIGNMENT do I jump on the BW? If it's the case that as either alignment I would vote shea if there was a wagon on him, I am really clueless what this says at all about the game... Like, what does pointing this out actually add to the game? It makes it seem like he already knows I am Town here considering the narrative that he is expecting me to do X when I don't do X.. What function does this serve? What Town motivation is there for saying this? I suppose one could say he is simply saying "Wow, you surprised me with what you did here!" But then that just feeds back into why is he expecting me to do X in the first place? I mean, this is what it sounds like to me "Quick, you totally would have voted me if I had a BW on me because I was Scum in a previous game" I mean that is basically what he is saying, right? If that's the case, why does he just completely dismiss the rest of the conversation unless he "knows" that I would actually be right in being on a BW on him? He is admitting here that in the case that there is a BW on himself that I would be there, but for right or for wrong? He doesn't address this because it just ends up being a "I'm Town, you would be wrong." Which is basically saying "Stop suspecting me!" *hides face* which is an admission of a guilty conscience. This is why Shea needs to die.

[LicketyQuickety]

NSG

: You state that CES isn't trying to sort people but by your refusing to post a reads list soon, and by deleting your post towards him, it shows you don't really have anything to continue your push, nor are you interested in getting an understanding from him. You say you disagree with the push, but you feel that what you have to say is bad. You cannot elaborate on it when I ask, your silence is telling. Plus you still remain confident in CES, which doesn't make sense if you can't even respond to his rebuttal. The original post where you vote CES #2526 is refuted, yet you A) Keep your vote on him and B) have nothing to say when he rightly refutes it.

CES, Shea, Lycanfire, Davsto

: Thoughts on this.

I think this is a good read.

I have a good read as well tho.

[LicketyQuickety]

not posting a readslist has nothing to do with sorting people or continuing a push or "getting an understanding from him".

it's not that i can't elaborate on it, it's that i'm really tired with talking to you. i can respond to what he said, i just haven't. it's not "rightly refuted".

please put a50 on the phone.

Nope, you need to answer what Ran is throwing at you.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: North

[LicketyQuickety]

@Rqanmaru, I think you are getting way too anal about people doing reads lists.. IDK why/how that gives you a clue into how to read people if you are not taking there reads into account to read them, which you have stated is not something you are doing...

Why ask people for a reads list so often if you don't use the reads people have to read them?

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: TSQ

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick: A reads list forces a player to give their feelings on the whole cast. Since scum have to fake reads, it forces them to fake their reads if they are scum. That's why I continue to ask for reads lists. For example, you attacked Davsto early on for seeming to have a weak reads list, when you actually just skimmed it and was more intent on discrediting him over actually reading his content.

The problem with that is that you ARE basing your reads based on someone else's reads, otherwise it's completely pointless! And it's pretty damn easy to fake a reads list, let's be real here.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Ranmaru,

I have no fucking idea why you have Davst as solid Town in your "Game Changing Reads." That is a read that needs a lot more fleshing out.

@Ranmaru,

You have some gall to demand people answer certain things when you don't even answer things that make you look pretty bad.

I'd like a response to this...

You keep hounding people for reads lists.. You would think your own would be pretty solid, but no, the analysis you give for Davsto is completely the opposite of where you have Davsto in your reads :/

[LicketyQuickety]

Dan, my biggest issue with NSG was her catchup where she displayed a fundamental lack of curiosity about the lynch that was on the block who she was null town reading.

When I as town catchup on games, thats the NUMBER ONE thing I'm interested in, especially as we approach deadline. When I'm scum I tend to just look for my name.

What do you think of that? How can you explain that catch up from a town mindset?

Why do you think that North is required to have the same mindset as you?

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Dunn

[LicketyQuickety]

@Dan, could you get to that thing I wanted you to do?

[LicketyQuickety]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

Like I said, me and eddie are different people. Is it impossible to you that dan considers me with defending where eddie wasn't?

Why though? Honestly Eddie would seem more worth defending, he was more active than you.

You do remember that not even eddie was fighting his lynch right?

[LicketyQuickety]

Marquis ignored me again

Hopefully they find time to talk about why they're voting me before deadline.

What a coincidence, you ignored me!

[LicketyQuickety]

So I am just going to lob this out there:

Is anyone besides North actually TRing Marquis?

Like I am trying to think of why lynching anyone else besides the chronic low content lurkers is a good idea at this point in time.

Like what justifies Marquis being alive at this point in the game?

Anyone is free to field this one, I'm not picky.

[LicketyQuickety]

^ applies to Dunn as well.

[LicketyQuickety]

I just think its setting her up for failure. You can't mathematically prove you did or did not get a scum PM. Suggesting you want her to do that is pretty unreasonable.

You are just noticing that Ranmaru is doing this now??? OK...

[LicketyQuickety]

I just think its setting her up for failure. You can't mathematically prove you did or did not get a scum PM. Suggesting you want her to do that is pretty unreasonable.

You are just noticing that Ranmaru is doing this now??? OK...

Most of what hes been saying has been rational. But this is the first time I've noticed him explicitly set someone up for failure like this. If you have other examples I'd love to see them.

Ran has been pulling this stuff all game. Basically, a huge percentage of what he says is voiced through a confirmationbiased language. He latches onto an idea and then fills in the gaps to fit his own misguided narrative. It's pretty fucking obvious given how often his hit list changes.

[LicketyQuickety]

Either he's defending his buddy or acting strange to implicate you. As town it feels weird.

What's with this dichotomy? Why is it impossible that he's defending someone he townreads?

Because why wouldn't he take the same defense day 2? it's oddly timed I feel.

Like I said, me and eddie are different people. Is it impossible to you that dan considers me with defending where eddie wasn't?

Why though? Honestly Eddie would seem more worth defending, he was more active than you.

You do remember that not even eddie was fighting his lynch right?

That's not what happened? I recall him+mastina fighting real hard

[LicketyQuickety]

Pardon?

The whole reason Eddie was lynched is because he tried to lurk out his wagon...

[LicketyQuickety]

I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

Let's hear it

Shea, whatever happened to this?

You dropped a "Dunn is the second Scummiest person in the game" and then you don't pursue it AT ALL D3??? Why not?

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm saying this, shea is such Scum.

Llama had her confirmationbias covered glasses when assessing shea. I have see this before. Two people know each other better than anyone knows them in the game and one is Scum and one is Town. The one that is Town ends up Confbiasing the one who is Scum because they are friends. My guess is that Llama was NKed because it would have been obvious to her eventually that shea is Scum because they know each other so well.

[LicketyQuickety]

I think Dunn is the most scummy player in the game after eddie.

Let's hear it

Shea, whatever happened to this?

You dropped a "Dunn is the second Scummiest person in the game" and then you don't pursue it AT ALL D3??? Why not?

i already answered this. I don't understand how you can be scum reading me if apparently you're not even reading my posts?

Really? Really? You're accusing me of not reading your posts?

Let's be real here for a moment.

I have been looking at some things from earlier in the game.
One of those things happen it catch my eye.
I decided to bring it up so it could be discussed.
The point in question seems pretty damn important IMO.
You then accuse me of not reading your posts like I am suppose to have your whole fucking ISO memorized or some shit.
I mean, really, how obtuse can you get?

[LicketyQuickety]

the reason is that I thought dunn was scum and I was sure there would be lots of stuff that was scummy when I went through his iso and then there just wasn't...

so I was kind of forced to conclude that my read is gut and I'm not going to sit here pushing a gut read when clearly my gut has been horrifically wrong this game.

Yeah, let's talk about your reads this game..

So far, you've done a really good job of casing Town as Scum.. Enough that I wouldn't exactly call it "gut."

What's the story behind your cases that you think are based on gut? Where else have you mentioned gut reads? Hold on, I will check myself.

So it turns out that on page 1 of your ISO the word "gut" appears exactly one time, from a quote wall where you didn't even say it.
On page 2 of your ISO, the word gut appears 7 times in total. Care to guess how many of those times were said recently? You said it Twice in your Whole ISO before I brought up this point to begin with.
So then for you to cry and whine about your "gut" being bad, it just doesn't make any sense to me why you would say something like that. Unless you are trying to cover for the two mislynches you were on, which were not at all "gut" reads, but actually spelled out in "great fucking detail."

[LicketyQuickety]

sure, but I'm just wondering what is the cause of your markedly different tone between how you're engaging with postie and ces considering they're basically doing the same thing?

What happened to this?

[LicketyQuickety]

The reason there isn't a lot to go on for Dunnstral is that there isn't a lot there. He was most active (which is a huge overstatement) D1, with most notably presenting and pushing a T-chill scum meta case.

He's still very likely scum from what he has posted that isn't part of the above.

right which is why I'm still scum reading, but I was expecting to read his posts and go "yeah, this is scum and this is why" but instead I read his posts and I just kind of went "meh."

I'm just reexplaining for captain "hey you ignored me/didn't respond to me/didn't post this thing" when I did do those things over there.

OK. Let's ask a question to Shea:

Do you really think that your answer on why you haven't done pretty much anything with Dunn this entire game is at all satisfying?

[LicketyQuickety]

the reason is that I thought dunn was scum and I was sure there would be lots of stuff that was scummy when I went through his iso and then there just wasn't...

so I was kind of forced to conclude that my read is gut and I'm not going to sit here pushing a gut read when clearly my gut has been horrifically wrong this game.

Yeah, let's talk about your reads this game..

So far, you've done a really good job of casing Town as Scum.. Enough that I wouldn't exactly call it "gut."

What's the story behind your cases that you think are based on gut? Where else have you mentioned gut reads? Hold on, I will check myself.

So it turns out that on page 1 of your ISO the word "gut" appears exactly one time, from a quote wall where you didn't even say it.
On page 2 of your ISO, the word gut appears 7 times in total. Care to guess how many of those times were said recently? You said it Twice in your Whole ISO before I brought up this point to begin with.
So then for you to cry and whine about your "gut" being bad, it just doesn't make any sense to me why you would say something like that. Unless you are trying to cover for the two mislynches you were on, which were not at all "gut" reads, but actually spelled out in "great fucking detail."

I literally could not care less about anything you have to say.

like our interactions have gone like this.

me: says a thing.

you: something related to that thing.

me: reply, explaining how you are mistaken.

you, 10 pages later: YOU NEVER RESPONDED TO THAT THING I SAID.

me: yes I did. here is the direct quote of me doing so.

you: OK COOL SO YOU DID THIS TIME BUT WHAT ABOUT THESE 10 OTHER TIMES YOU'VE ALREADY DEBUNKED.

me: ...

you: PS lets talk about you being scum for some other absolutely bizarre reason.

frankly, fuck off. again.

You have an outstanding balance from 30 pages ago, thank you very much for your cooperation.

[LicketyQuickety]

Like, shea's read on Dunn sticks out like a sore thumb. Everyone else he has reasons for. With Dunn he just says that even thought he SRs hir, its just a gut read so he doesn't want to push it. That just seems really uncharacteristic of Shea. Who agrees?

[LicketyQuickety]

@CES,

I think you are Town..

If you help me lynch Dunn D3, I will help you lynch Marquis D4.

[LicketyQuickety]

@CES,

I think you are Town..

If you help me lynch Dunn D3, I will help you lynch Marquis D4.

This is if Dunn flips Town.

I still think there is at least one Scum in Dunn/Marquis.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Ran I would happily kill either LQ or Tchill. Right now there is a wagon on one of them and not on the other. I have pretty high confidence in my scum reads on both of them, so I don't see why it makes sense for me to switch over to LQ at this time unless the wagon moved over there for some reason independent of me.

But quoting this, because I can.

[LicketyQuickety]

We had like a 5 page back and forth about what my scum read on your was based on. I explained it to you multiple times. We argued about it for pages.

There's literal no way you don't remember why I'm scum reading you. This is more well poisoning.

This 5 page back and forth never really happened. I counted like 2 times that shea quoted me going back to about post 700.

[LicketyQuickety]

BTW, Dunn's votes look horribly opportunistic, and then when the Town lynch is basically ensured, Dunn opportunistically hops off the wagon.

[LicketyQuickety]

Also, I don't think that someones lynch pool remaining mostly static is a scum tell in any way. I think the same people are scum that I thought were scum yesterday. For the same reasons. Not much has changed in that regard imo.

This is still an outstanding question for you Ranmaru and one that I've brought up repeatingly too before.

I'll give my theory (even though it wasn't asked of me)...

So, how I tackle this problem is looking at how people learn a new thing...

First question would be... Do you think people are correct the first time they try something? The answer should be an obvious, resounding NO.
Next question would be... Do you think people are correct the second time they try something? The answer should be no, but they learned what didn't work the first time.
I don't think I need to continue this because my point has been made...

When people learn something new, Like learning who is Scum in a Mafia Game, they tend to not be right with their first suspect... But in learning something about their fist suspect, they come to the realization that they were wrong. Demonstration of this shouldn't have to be said, but I will say anyways that D1 lynches happen way more often on Town than Scum. Now the thing to realize about how people learn is that at the beginning they deviate wildly like Llama did, and they are wrong a lot.. But then after time, they start to hone in more on who is Scum and who is Town...
The ideal way to play a Mafia Game as Town is to start with some assumptions about people, but as the Game progresses, you start to learn more and more about how you were wrong, until you get a mafia flip. Then you can start looking at what you got right and adjust accordingly.

Why do I say all this?

Because it's a way to look at the votes and see who is making a natural progression and who is not. Right off the bat, I can tell you that there is something dead wrong with a lot of people's vote progression in this game. I am going to attempt to analyze the votes on D4 keeping this in mind.

The other part of why I said all this is because it makes a few people look bad because of the reads they have had.. Ranmaru has virtually the exact opposite problem that CES has. Ran has been changing their reads all game and can't seem to settle on who is Scum at all. CES, being the opposite, has had virtually the same read all game long. There are other people as well who have progression that doesn't really make sense as well.

[LicketyQuickety]

UNVOTE: Marquis

I'll take another look - you need to talk to me about why you're voting me right now because it looks like you're just trying to get a wagon going and it irks me, I don't make much sense in that team imo

We're wagoning you, what are you going to do about it?

[LicketyQuickety]

THAT is a CASE!!!

VOTE: CES

I applaud you.

[LicketyQuickety]

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.

Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?

This is what sold it for me.

[LicketyQuickety]

By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.

My I ask precisely where you got this from?

I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question

Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

By my reckoning he's got about 55% chance of being scum.

My I ask precisely where you got this from?

I have a specific process to come up with numbers like these - I make them up. Then, after making up a number for everyone, I add up all the numbers and see if they add up to #ofscum - they probably don't, so I start changing the numbers until they do, making sure to think long and hard about how embarrassed I would be if one of my town reads turned up scum whilst doing so in order to keep my confidence in check. The idea is that the triple constraints of math, embarrassment and not wanting to underestimate my confident scum reads will lead to some semblance of truth. It's a bit involved but I prefer it to making reads list in terms of taking stock because I could actually experience how the existence of null reads like Dunn and ActionDan make me somewhat less confident in Marquis and Eddie.

Spoiler: Answer to the inevitable question

Marquis: 60%
Eddie: 55%
GE: 30%
Postie: 25%
Dunn: 25%
ActionDan: 25%
northsidegal: 20%
LQ: 20%
Davsto: 15%
Lycan: 10%
TSQ: 10%
Ranmaru: 5%

Explain your method.. otherwise it just looks like you are making up numbers.

a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?

Like you're literally quoting the post where he's explaining his method and telling you that part of it involves making up some numbers and you're responding "EXPLAIN YOUR METHOD! OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE YOU'RE MAKING UP NUMBERS!"

a) he did explain his method. b) he admitted that the method involves coming up with rough guestimates of numbers and then tweaking them with different sources of information.

Sometimes its like you're not even reading the posts you're responding to?

A) He did not explain his method, he literally said he was making up numbers and then arbitralily manipulating them. Seriously? What constitutes a number being what it is? That was more my question. What are these numbers based on?

B) Tell me what the numbers are based on if he explained him method.

a) he said it was a bit arbitrary. The fact that you don't like the method does not mean he didn't explain it.

b) I'll just quote you: "he literally said he was making up numbers and then ... manipulating them"

If you think his method is bad feel free to attack it, but suggesting that he hasn't explained it when literally in your point a you say what he does because he explained it is a bad look.

And I edited out the arbitrarily in your sentence, because while its clear that some amount of the process is guess work, it doesn't look to me like anything he said about it suggests its at random.

key word is "bit." he says the initial numbers are basically guesses.

how is that any different from posting that someone is a "town lean"

how is it different in any way besides the fact that hes trying to quantify his reads differently than you are?

@Shea, what do the numbers actually stand for? That's what he hasn't answered and that is what I think is the most important thing in his whole numbers thing.

How has this never come up in any of the games I've played with you before?

Has this came up before ever?

Can you point me to other times you've talked about this method.

First time I remember using it is actually TM2012 White Flag, which is also the only game I can remember having played with you. I definitely haven't discussed this explicitly before for the same reason it may have been better to avoid having done so here.

@Shea, what do the numbers actually stand for? That's what he hasn't answered and that is what I think is the most important thing in his whole numbers thing.

Chance of being scum, probably, given the context.

Actually

VOTE: Marquis

Why the vote change? I mean, I kind of like it but I don't see quite what prompted it.

Complete Bull Shit! That numbers thing is just to look like you are doing something. I always had a problem with this whole thing here. Just quoting it so people can see I have my own reasons for SRing CES.

[LicketyQuickety]

This is why me and chamber always say cases are scummy. It's just a cavalcade of nonsense and it's very obvious a lot of it is just ripped from its context or hasn't been given much thought. It just creates the impression that there has to be something there because of its size.

I'll give a detailed reply as soon I can, but the fact that she claims that the reasons for my scum read on Marquis haven't changed when my very last post summarizes exactly why I'm currently scum reading Marquis (and it's not like I hadn't talked about those things before).

The fuck are you talking about? North's case is based on and made based on the evidence of what you have actually done. I would say if North made an error, it is not providing enough of their own thoughts on what these things mean.. not like she has to. It's pretty self explanatory why why you have done is Scummy to anyone who knows what Scummy behavior looks like.

[LicketyQuickety]

North's case is based on and made based on the evidence of what you have actually done.

In the sense that movies are based on a true story, maybe. You can read my detailed response for yourself if you want but let me also give you what I consider to be probably the most egregrious example:

She writes:

In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.

She's accusing me of cherry-picking a reads list by 'marble that has been made obsolete by the tchillflip, leaving out incriminating info on me and apparently also misrepresenting the nature of said reads list. That's scummy behaviour she's describing, no doubt about it. Now let's look at the relevant part of #1557:

Me and mathdino both agree that llamarble was killed to break up town cohesion, and that the post we should all be looking at is 875. To that end, he thinks that postie vs tsq is a pointless debate to have as that'll be resolved itself as the game goes on.

Wouldn't #1160 be the obvious post to look at if that was your point of view?

It's literally just me asking nsg why she is looking at #875 rather than #1160. Why did I pick #1160? Simply because it was 'marble's last posted (and therefore most up-to-date) reads list; the =======[] icon at the end also signifies fairly clearly that it's explicitly intended as a last reads list. I don't know why she picked #875 but even if you think it's the more relevant reads list to look at, I still have no clue as to what's supposed to be the scum intent about asking her. As to the point that #1160 was heavily based on Tchillscum, that's contradicted by its first line: "I think we're well set up to win even if the first day or two don't go how we hope."

This happens again and again throughout the case: nsg accuses me of something that does sound self-evidently scummy but then if you click on the link(s) and read the relevant post(s) or if you know the relevant context, the accusation just melts away. This is what happens when someone writes a big case, they don't pay attention to their points, they don't give it much thought, they just make a big impressive-looking list and make the target deal with it. I've had to spend a ridiculous amount of time I still didn't get round to pointing out everything that was misleading and provide the full context to every point (e.g. the example I gave in this post also features in my rebuttal but I didn't go into as much detail).

Apparently, you missed the point where I said Llama was a threat because of their ability to figure out the game

eventually

[regarding shea, but it applies elsewhere as well]. Given this is likely the case and given that she WAS SRing you and put into place precautions in case she dies and you make it far into the game without lynching Scum, I see more reason to believe what North is telling us than what you are. It's a perfectly legitimate POV to say that because of what Llama said about you that she was possibly fear killed because of that.

[LicketyQuickety]

BTW, Dunn's votes look horribly opportunistic, and then when the Town lynch is basically ensured, Dunn opportunistically hops off the wagon.

eck
might follow on this

The CES wagon is the way of the future. If you want to sheep something I am doing, hop on ECS. What I said doesn't pack nearly the punch of what North said about CES.

[LicketyQuickety]

You're distracting from the main point. Why?

[LicketyQuickety]

You're distracting from the main point. Why?

What's the main point?

What the validity of Llama's reads were/are.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, and Gamma, what makes you join this push rather then when I pushed it and asked for you guys to join me?

Noth made a legit case that was well founded and hasn't moved their votes/SRs too many times.

[LicketyQuickety]

Withdrawing intent to hammer

Honestly I'm not so sure on CES here. Like I think if he were scum he'd be lynched cos his buddies would be trying to bus him for some sweet cred
So either he's not scum or he is and scum are on his wagon already

Not sure on that given it's been a damn long road to get him to L-1.

[LicketyQuickety]

I will say shea's vote looks Sus af regardless of how CES flips.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Lycan,

I'll get to your post when I feel like it, but thank you for engaging with me without going red in the face.

[LicketyQuickety]

@North,

I think we push shea/Dunn next game day regardless of flip, correct?

[LicketyQuickety]

I noted you saying Gamma is locktown and didn't think to respond, but I want to mention that Llama did say that is how he won as scum, being locktown due to 'no connections' to scum. Also, yes Shea points Gamma as a possible scum partner to LQ. Yet he then says 'in a vacuum, his play is similar to his scum game over town game but it may be because he's taking Team Mafia seriously overall'. There are only two posts that I can remember at the top of my head that made me wary of Gamma, but I considered trivial. Yes, LQ and Dan were the only ones that wanted him, and CES. I think that would give them room to distance, otherwise if Gamma were in more trouble, I'm not sure how they'd want to play that out.

What is your read on CES?

Why do I ask this silly question? I'll give you three guesses.

[LicketyQuickety]

Sorta Kinda Reads List:

I think Town can still win this game. I think it's not really going to be super hard to win either, granted Town can get their heads out of their ass and start working together.

For Town I have:
Dan: Pretty much everything he writes is gold. What he says makes a lot of sense and he carries a perspective that I don't think Scum could fake. Only concern is that with the gold that he writes with, I would expect more pressure on Marquis from him.
North: North is a read like Dan. I just don't think North could viably fake what they are doing as Scum. I am also going with Postie's read on North here.
Dunn: Now this is probably the hardest read for me to make, but suffice to say I like their tone. I talk about this in 2062. That said, they don't have enough content for me to be super confident in this read, so I wouldn't mind some pressure there.
Davsto: I feel his approach to the game is wolds different than mine is. That said, I can't say I have really seen anything that is outright Scummy from him. I mentioned that his reads were generic, but I don't think this necessarily means that this is Scummy. I think my trouble TRing Davsto in the past has been because we just approach the game so much differently. Also, as I reread parts of the game, I saw his entrance and I thought it was actually pretty good. No, he didn't give any content in his first post, but he was extremely light hearted and I feel he wasn't faking it at all.
Ran: I think most of my suspicion of him is just plain old paranoia. Like on paper this guy is never Scum. He also hasn't neglected this game which is something I noticed when he was Scum. As Scum he just is always saying "I'll get to this later"
Gamma: If Ran is Town, then I am just going to believe that Gamma is Town is well, it's as simple as that.
Lycan: He's had solid content and I feel this is another read that I can get swept away by paranoia. His posts are solid, much like Dan and North.

That leaves:
CES: After thinking about it a lot, I think I can see some Scum motive in what he is pushing.

I saw he voted Marquis at a time when Marquis wagon was on a down trend, then Marquis got voted by me and someone else. I think this could be telling if Marquis flips Scum.

Shea: Yeah, he just gives me the hebejebes. Call it gut but I don't like him at all. The way he has defended Marquis is like highly suspect to me. There is also his horrendous votes and the fact he has never voted Marquis.
Marquis: No Town quality posts at all, isn't here, can't make a Town post to save their life. This is the lynch I want today.

If I am wrong about the bottom three, it's probably CES I am wrong about.

This is more or less what I am thinking at this point in time, but just putting Dunn in the "Scummy" pile. Actually, I think I have seen about enough of Ran to say something just doesn't feel right about them. Hard to place what it is exactly. Sorta seems like they are playing too many angles and it looks fake.

Going to say FoS Ran.

What I wanted to draw attention to was the blue. What I was trying to say was that CES can still potentially be Scum with Marquis given how CES got on the "Marquis is Scum" idea. Sorta like he needs to push something believable and he saw that Marquis was on a down trend. Then when someone else and I hoped on, he stuck with the read because people dropped the wagon again. So I think that CES can be Scum with Marquis thinking he is going to push Marquis all game long, knowing the Marquis wagon will never go through, and if it does, it will clear him. I've made plays like this in the past, which I think Gamma has some knowledge of which was talked about earlier regarding how I push my buddies super hard knowing they are not getting lynched (because I don't know how to push a lynch through is the short version).

[LicketyQuickety]

3205

I guess what I was trying to say is that Dan and CES were feeling each other out like some kind of weird ass DBZ fight, but pre-fight fight, if you catch my meaning? Sorta the whole "I will not show you my true power level yet" type of thing. The one thing that sticks out to me as weird is that Dan never follows up with CES here. I think this is especially weir because of stuff like 520:

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

I am just not seeing a whole lot of conviction on CES in Dan...

I found something that backs up your idea that CES and Dan are Scum buddies tho. Take a look:

CES why do you have 0 interest in lynching Dunnstral?

Is it just because he's voting Marquis?

Is responding to her not a priority to you? I'm confused as to why you bring up observations on Action Dan and NSG but don't follow through. I want to see your reads list, you said you'd give that out on Sunday. If you are short on time, tell me your reads on NSG and Action Dan right now. How's your read on Shea developing?

It's not a priority in the current game state given that I don't want to lynch her right now. But my main issue seems to be that I'm writing posts at too slow a pace to keep up with all the things I want to be keeping up - there's always more context to look at and more things to consider. I'll see how far I'll get into a reads list this morning.

I want to point out that in the other game he was more hyper, more intent on the words 'victory' but hasn't really said that as much here.

The obvious context there is the glorious victory that was TM2012. TM2015, by contrast, was a painful loss. I think I still showcased some of that pro-town zest early Today when the Marquislynch looked plausible but I don't think it should be surprising that I've been less optimistic and more aware of the possibility of this game turning into an embarrassing failure.

The point that Dan brings up for CES asking them why they have no interest in lynching Dunn is completely and 100% dropped. Neither of these players ends up bringing it up again up to current time.

Yeah, I am perfectly happy with this lynch.

I don't think 395 is necessarily Scummy, but I would say it's not exactly the most hard to fake thing I have ever seen.

2896
I would love to look up exactly where Shea starts his TR on me for this reason you bring up here. If he ends up saying I am Town because of that, then that's a good sign, otherwise I think the point holds.

I need some reference points for this next thing because I don't recall all that at all.

Interesting question asking why marquis over CES considering I just made a post saying that it could be either/or/both as Scum.
I think on surface value, Marquis is more of a danger to the game than CES is because Marquis is just a pathetic lurkface and has done fuck all, all game. That said, the best case I have seen so far in this game is the one North made on CES and what's more is that it was done with a lot of conviction.
IDK, they both need to die.

At the moment, the Chill wagon comp is not really factoring into anything other than to say that because the wagon was so heavily favored for Chill dying that he probably should not have been lynched.

[LicketyQuickety]

The point that Dan brings up for CES asking them why they have no interest in lynching Dunn is completely and 100% dropped. Neither of these players ends up bringing it up again up to current time.

I respond to it in #3053.

Fair enough.

[LicketyQuickety]

I hate to say this because it means I was wrong, but I think the shea wagon is a Scum driven wagon.

[LicketyQuickety]

I hate to say this because it means I was wrong, but I think the shea wagon is a Scum driven wagon.

I predicted you'd change your stance once you get the opportunity to join a Shea wagon. Who is scum on a CEStown flip and CESscum flip?

The wagon is way too easy. I brought up point after point before and people invalidated my points on shea. Why all the sudden this quick wagon on shea?

[LicketyQuickety]

To answer your question, I think Dunn is Scum regardless of how CES flips... I will say that on top of their previous votes looking bad, that their current vote on shea also looks really bad.

[LicketyQuickety]

okay so if this shit isn't locked when i wake up i want lq's next post to have answers to my 3205 that he promised

Spoiler: Bro, I already answered you

3205

I guess what I was trying to say is that Dan and CES were feeling each other out like some kind of weird ass DBZ fight, but pre-fight fight, if you catch my meaning? Sorta the whole "I will not show you my true power level yet" type of thing. The one thing that sticks out to me as weird is that Dan never follows up with CES here. I think this is especially weir because of stuff like 520:

I still don't know where CES stands in his reads this game and don't know why he thought Marquis was scummy to begin with earlier before the lurking.

I am just not seeing a whole lot of conviction on CES in Dan...

I found something that backs up your idea that CES and Dan are Scum buddies tho. Take a look:

CES why do you have 0 interest in lynching Dunnstral?

Is it just because he's voting Marquis?

Is responding to her not a priority to you? I'm confused as to why you bring up observations on Action Dan and NSG but don't follow through. I want to see your reads list, you said you'd give that out on Sunday. If you are short on time, tell me your reads on NSG and Action Dan right now. How's your read on Shea developing?

It's not a priority in the current game state given that I don't want to lynch her right now. But my main issue seems to be that I'm writing posts at too slow a pace to keep up with all the things I want to be keeping up - there's always more context to look at and more things to consider. I'll see how far I'll get into a reads list this morning.

I want to point out that in the other game he was more hyper, more intent on the words 'victory' but hasn't really said that as much here.

The obvious context there is the glorious victory that was TM2012. TM2015, by contrast, was a painful loss. I think I still showcased some of that pro-town zest early Today when the Marquislynch looked plausible but I don't think it should be surprising that I've been less optimistic and more aware of the possibility of this game turning into an embarrassing failure.

The point that Dan brings up for CES asking them why they have no interest in lynching Dunn is completely and 100% dropped. Neither of these players ends up bringing it up again up to current time.

Yeah, I am perfectly happy with this lynch.

I don't think 395 is necessarily Scummy, but I would say it's not exactly the most hard to fake thing I have ever seen.

2896
I would love to look up exactly where Shea starts his TR on me for this reason you bring up here. If he ends up saying I am Town because of that, then that's a good sign, otherwise I think the point holds.

I need some reference points for this next thing because I don't recall all that at all.

Interesting question asking why marquis over CES considering I just made a post saying that it could be either/or/both as Scum.
I think on surface value, Marquis is more of a danger to the game than CES is because Marquis is just a pathetic lurkface and has done fuck all, all game. That said, the best case I have seen so far in this game is the one North made on CES and what's more is that it was done with a lot of conviction.
IDK, they both need to die.

At the moment, the Chill wagon comp is not really factoring into anything other than to say that because the wagon was so heavily favored for Chill dying that he probably should not have been lynched.

[LicketyQuickety]

I hate to say this because it means I was wrong, but I think the shea wagon is a Scum driven wagon.

I predicted you'd change your stance once you get the opportunity to join a Shea wagon. Who is scum on a CEStown flip and CESscum flip?

The wagon is way too easy. I brought up point after point before and people invalidated my points on shea. Why all the sudden this quick wagon on shea?

Hint its because I'm town and ces is scum.

Yeah, I think that is actually more likely.

Dunn's vote is the worst one out of the bunch by a mile tho.

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: Dunn
I think we can all agree to this?

If Dunn's wagon starts to compete with CES' and/or CES wagon starts to dip, I will def consider going onto Dunn.

[LicketyQuickety]

Compromising on a lynch in this manner is not a bad idea at all, Ran.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, can you respond to my #3355?

If this is the question of "who is Scum depending on CES flip" I think it's a pointless question.