In post 5806, teacher wrote: In post 5800, RadiantCowbells wrote:That’s a quick and dirty, but I can come up with a scum narrative fairly well. Part of it is how tomorrow plays in any world: if there is a green flip he is likely the lynch, and so I’m wondering if it’s better to have his flip now to make tomorrow have a better chance of cohesion and solving fegardless of the color he does flip.
This is going to sound mean, but if you can't recognize me as town I have 0 confidence in this town to solve the remainder of the game.
If you're lynching me you're lynching up my lynchpool and winning.
That’s another reason I am conflicted (and have been saying so). I agree with your lynchpool. Gun to my head, I’d say you’re +rand town. But that’s not the ultimate question. The question is what is the most likely winning path. Because - and I think you agree - green today makes you a hell of a lot more likely tomorrow. Assuming town!you, is it better to tak you today and get the cohesion and perhaps a better chance at a red tomorrow, or is it better to chance it today when I think the thread is still going to be less cohesive/good of an environment (and there is a substantial chance of red).
Like this post and I'm gonna piggyback off it a bit before I keep reading on.
RC is very townreadable when he's being pushed as the primary lynch option. In the sense that his Poe is reasonable, his reads line up similarly with mine and the townblocks (minus himself) and the possible world's are reasonable/make sense. But that's really the only time I find myself agreeing with him and that's not a red flag but it's a slow down indication at least.
But trying to find scum motive outside of RC is tough as well especially in the context of both wagons on him today. Scum have the cover of the day 1 1v1 and the fact RC wasn't the nk target as the only claimed tpr. You can make the case for medic dodging but that's not the point I'm making.
Both wagons have been pushed by myself and math (conf town). And saudade recently. But neither wagon has gone anywhere. At the very least scum could try to pin a mislynch on me if RC is town. Unless scum are stuck in the trap of townreading both myself and RC so they can't make that pivot without catching flak for it. That's specifically Ari and Skitter.
But Ari went the opposite way day 2 going from scumreading me to townreading me I think after the initial wagon on RC. And the pairing of Ari/Skitter had all of day 1 to set up a trajectory that allowed Town!RC to be mislynchable day 2. Because they would know day 1 was a TvT pissing contest but neither took that route.
If RC is town scum are buddying him for what? Regardless of his flip the slots townreading him are in the Poe. Nearly everyone's Poe. With like the exception of shos I think... Maybe Bella idk Bella's reads.
Maybe I'm way off but I think both Ari and Skitter are highly competent scum players and the wagon Dynamics would have been different with them both as scum with RC!town.
I can't wrap my head around scum A.) Not wanting to play around a mislynchable RC and 2.) Not wanting to deal with him via nightkill simultaneously. He's just not a townplayer you ignore entirely.