Open 812 Guardians of the Fortress - Game Over

[Something_Smart]

Phyrste.

[Something_Smart]

I can provide my thoughts on the setup if people want, though I was thinking it might be better to let some other people weigh in first, because I suspect that people will probably be taking my opinions pretty seriously

Also I'm ngl I was a bit excited to play with absinthe because she was someone I remember being around way back in the day (though I don't think I ever played any games with her).

[Something_Smart]

Having a UTR decide who goes where should increase our odds of winning (of forcing someone to scumclaim by not following the plan) right?

Yes, I believe so.

[Something_Smart]

Seeing as they are probably not so stupid as to do that, perhaps we should try quickly putting all the good people into two locations and then the bad people will be stuck going to the last location?

Using the the locations as a one-shot scumteam guess is... a thing we could do, but probably not the most efficient use of it given that the odds of actually getting it right are so low.

[Something_Smart]

You misunderstand me

I don't think so? You're saying that we can try to force all three scum to be at the same location. We can try, but we'll almost certainly fail.

[Something_Smart]

After some careful thought I think using Gate is the best null/trashpile, mostly because if we're wrong on a base assumption we can clear a wrong read or confirm an unknown

Sending hard-to-read people to the Gate is probably a good idea, yeah.

[Something_Smart]

Who are the hard-to-reads at this table?

I haven't played with most of the people here. Of the ones I have played with, Infinity is probably the one I have the most trouble reading.

[Something_Smart]

okay the anime avis are starting to get to me ngl

[Something_Smart]

I'm not changing my avi for you this time, S_S.

lmao

your old one on this account was so nice tho :3

[Something_Smart]

I didn't realize we all got to vote on all the minigames.

I don't think we do. At least, that wasn't the intent.

[Something_Smart]

Yes LMAO.

What do you make of that?

oh no now I have an alt guess for you that I'm not happy about

[Something_Smart]

How would one say that with said undertones?

[Something_Smart]

In 24? or what post are you referring to

[Something_Smart]

I think it would have more meaningless mech attached if he wanted to make it look wordy for towncred.

Why would saying meaningless things get him towncred?

[Something_Smart]

But scum are not comfortable stating facts about the setup without adding fluff?

[Something_Smart]

My point is that your townread on Dunnstral is nonsense and he would say the same thing regardless of alignment, but that's not why I was pressing you... I wanted to understand your thought process to see if I thought it was genuine.

[Something_Smart]

Also (@Ana), that sounds like a response from someone who's played with me before (and is in all likelihood not too fond of my playstyle). Is that intuition accurate?

You're definitely missing the point if you think that all that questioning is just so I could state a conclusion at the end. If that's all I wanted to do, I could do it without the back-and-forth.

[Something_Smart]

I liked the way he stated it because didn't have any performative nonsense added to it - I wouldn't say it's a townread.

Does it take meta into account?

[Something_Smart]

Any exchange that goes over ten posts is likely to be ignored and mostly a waste of time.

I disagree. I, for one, do not ignore them, and I (relatively) often get reads from them.

[Something_Smart]

I am curious still about S_S's guess on me and why it bothered him, because he didn't say anything about it more and while I appreciate him not outting it for fear it's correct

It was probably a rude thing to say regardless of whether it was right. Sorry.

I'm thinking it wasn't right though because if it was then you'd probably know why I said it.

[Something_Smart]

Though, I do want to ask to clarify @S_S: was it a game thing or a more personal/player thing that you were thinking?

Not sure exactly what you mean by this, but the last time I played with the player I thought you were we had a pretty unpleasant conflict.

[Something_Smart]

SS feels like he's going through the motions a bit - I don't think he really believes where he is driving to.

this seems to be under the misapprehension that I'm going somewhere

I'm just enjoying the drive

[Something_Smart]

I would've liked more of a follow-up from S_S regarding if he thought you were genuine or not

Bear in mind that it is extremely to our advantage to hide our reads as much as possible.

[Something_Smart]

You think so?

To an extent. Scum will have either 6 or 15 options for who to swap; either way, which swap is optimal will depend almost entirely on how people are being read. The less they know about that, the more likely they are to make a suboptimal swap-- and the swap matters a huge deal.

How do you feel about what Ana did just now?

Probably moderately +scum because giving up control is pretty much always +town here, but not very much so. (Incidentally: this means Lukewarm's reaction is towny.)

[Something_Smart]

there's no incentive for scum!Ana to go to keep and promise to vote through Briar/Absinthe because that's a point for the town.

Only if you actually follow through with it...

[Something_Smart]

Also, Keep is the easiest for town to win, so it's the ideal target for a bold gambit like that.

[Something_Smart]

Ugh, I don't want to think about the swap. >_> I've been handwaving it as an Event to deal with later and I don't wanna think about the consequences /now./

I mean yes, and in a sense you're right that we shouldn't be talking about it much because we don't want to give scum ideas. But... it is an important part of the setup, so you can't just ignore it.

[Something_Smart]

I've already committed to voting for whichever of Briar/Absinthe remain in the group.

I have no reason to change on this.

What if you change your mind?

[Something_Smart]

I will not

Seems like you aren't playing to win then?

[Something_Smart]

He's literally casting doubt on my motivations when it is provable that I will be voting for Briar/Absinthe.

It's not provable

now

If you get swapped out, which is likely if you/briar/absinthe are all town and also if you are scum, it will never be provable.

[Something_Smart]

But until that actually happens - he has no ground to say I am scum-gambitting.

And I'm not. I'm just saying it's possible.

To be clear-- I was not aware that you'd committed to definitely voting whoever of Briar/absinthe remains at the Keep. If you clearly stated it somewhere, it was too far back and I didn't recall it? My +scum comment was about you jumping on the Keep, only.

I don't think a gambit is incredibly likely, but I also think that you're playing badly if town by committing yourself to not changing those reads.

[Something_Smart]

I was not aware that you'd committed to definitely voting whoever of Briar/absinthe remains at the Keep

(when I made the +scum comment. obviously I was in the ensuing discussion)

[Something_Smart]

Are you saying the gambit is that Ana says all this and gets swapped out, rather than the gambit being her presence and theoretical vote when we're actually voting?

The latter, or she says all this and then acts hesitant when D2 actually comes. There would be no point in voting as a gambit, since at the Keep anyone who gets voted will just self-hammer. (or not self-hammer and enjoy their conftown status)

[Something_Smart]

*The former

I can't english

[Something_Smart]

only if my reads are wrong

I think it's pretty silly to have a value judgement on play that is only determined after the game is over. We want to know now what's good and what isn't; so I think that it is bad play to commit yourself to a read like that, even if the read turns out to be right in the end.

[Something_Smart]

I guess my issue with it being the latter is that... isn't it just a scumclaim if she's hesitant? I don't understand the like... worry regarding Ana since we can hold her to her word knowing how many times she's said it.

The weird thing here is that I am simultaneously trying to argue that (a) Ana as town OUGHT to be hesitant and (b) Ana as scum would be hesitant.

I think the upshot is that she's probably town, for how much she has pushed back on (a).

[Something_Smart]

Oh yeah, for the record-- another part of Ana's gambit could be hoping (or knowing, if absinthe is her partner) that absinthe doesn't end up picking Keep.

Also unlikely, but worth mentioning.

[Something_Smart]

I think you are stuck in a weird place where you can't decide whether you want to shade me as bold genius scum gambitter or bad town tunnel reader and it makes you sound funny

you are stuck in a weird place where you assume that I have to be pushing something rather than just trying to solve this puzzle like the rest of us

[Something_Smart]

Rest assured, if I were scum and had to make that decision, it would not be a hard one.

[Something_Smart]

My place doesn't feel weird to me, though. It's my default state.

[Something_Smart]

I do trust Ana's faith in her absinthe read, for what that's worth.

Do you know Ana's main?

[Something_Smart]

I figured it out, yes.

Mm.

I'll take your word for it. I also townread absinthe for the same reason Ana does.

[Something_Smart]

Do you really think you were getting more out of ana than you already got?

I hadn't gotten anything yet, so I should hope so?

[Something_Smart]

I'm ok with going to the Keep.

Putting 3 towny players in the Keep seems like a massive waste

[Something_Smart]

Well she had outlined her basic thought process already

The thing about my questions is that they don't go sideways, they go down. So in other words, it's not like I'm asking the person to explain 3-4 things, where each thing provides a new insight into what they think; I'm asking them to explain 3-4 things, each of which is directly necessary to understand the previous answer. If they stop answering before I'm done, I have nothing.

Dunnstral is town for that post, BECAUSE he doesn't have undertones of saying it for towncred, BECAUSE he didn't make it wordier with meaningless mechanical stuff, which is scummy BECAUSE it's something scum are comfortable doing, but it's not something town are equally comfortable doing BECAUSE... oops, segfault. The whole chain of reasoning is impossible to follow without that answer.

Now, that's not to say that there's nothing readable in that exchange-- but I was looking for the underlying belief about how scum play different from town that was supporting the read, and I didn't get it. Maybe there wasn't one, which would be scum indicative for sure.

[Something_Smart]

Are people comfortable with Briar as the main vote, and Ana as the back up?

We definitely should not be saying which of the two we'd rather elect.

[Something_Smart]

@s_s Why would ana make up a reason for a read she can't justify as scum?

Because she wouldn't expect to be interrogated this deeply.

I mean, scum have two kinds of reads: tactical and genuine. Town have only genuine reads. Tactical reads are top-down instead of bottom-up (the read comes first, then the justification), so they may not be justifiable in the same way that genuine reads are.

[Something_Smart]

I'm confused.

About what?

[Something_Smart]

My thought is that putting 3 town (very likely town) into the keep forces the Mafia to use one of their swaps there.

That's true of any location. If we really could identify 3 town, wouldn't it be best to put them at the Wall to force scum to swap in a scum to get voted off?

[Something_Smart]

I'm scumreading S_S mostly for cold meta reasons.

What reasons?

[Something_Smart]

For some scum players virtually every read is tactical.

Also partner reads are highly likely to be tactical if they aren't bussing

Like maybe it's not optimal to do that, but for some people it probably is. I'm not saying I would have been able to catch scum-Ana, but like... I think it would have provided valuable data to see where it bottomed out. (Usually these kinds of things bottom out in "gut" which would have been a perfectly acceptable answer at any stage.)

[Something_Smart]

And on the off-chance it didn't bottom out in gut-- well, maybe she'd have convinced me to share the read. That's also worthwhile.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, so why put 3 strong townreads there if we only need two...?

[Something_Smart]

because we can win the game if we get a 3-3

But we won't.

[Something_Smart]

Like, you're discouraging that combination in the Keep because you think it's 3 town, while earlier you were positing potential me/anastasia as scum.

I mean positing something as

possible

does not mean that I think it is

likely

. That whole sequence was me explaining why Ana could conceivably be gambiting; 482 was one afterthought unlikely scenario that had another unlikely scenario enclosed within wherein you/Ana were partnered, and all that's assuming Ana is scum at all.

I definitely have a tendency to not give attention to scenarios in proportion to how likely they are. I'm not sure if this is a weakness, but it seems to have definitely caused confusion here.

[Something_Smart]

It's easier for you to talk about things that are unlikely because it doesn't matter.

Okay, yes? And I'm lazy. What's your point?

[Something_Smart]

I scumread unwnd for his play and I scumread infinity/SS on their interaction and play independently.

And you think we'd throw the game?

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure if anyone strongly townreads me

I do. And I thought I wasn't the first one?

[Something_Smart]

I think if either one of you try to escape to the Gate it would be a scum claim

Well yes, but we would also have to do it.

If Infinity and I both went to the Wall right now, by definition the game would not be over.

[Something_Smart]

That is the gambit you mentioned earlier no?

It is, but if that were the only reason I townread you, it would not be a townread at all. That would be like saying I townread you conditional on you being revealed town and the Gate.

[Something_Smart]

The more I think about it, the more this post bugs me.

Because it's mechanically wrong, or because it's infeasible this game? (Or some other reason that didn't even occur to me?)

[Something_Smart]

I'd hope to convince the rest of the town that my reads are correct and get Dunn/Catboi and Luke to go into the gate and then you will end up at the wall with Unwnd/Infinity by default.

Yeah, makes sense. I'm mostly just giving you a hard time, but I'm also trying to illustrate why it's so hard to get a 3-0-0. You'd need every single townie to be on board with it.

[Something_Smart]

I think he knows more than he's pretending to know.

About what

[Something_Smart]

Well the harm is just if it ends up negatively affecting our assignments.

If you just want to speculate about it, I guess that's fine, but it feels like it would mostly just increase your confirmation bias.

[Something_Smart]

I think you know the answers to the questions you ask so you're asking more for the purpose of being engaged than genuine curiosity/sorting.

Definitely some of my questions are rhetorical, if that's what you mean.

Can you give some examples of these and demonstrate why you think I already knew the answer?

[Something_Smart]

Because it's infeasible, and yet is apparently the best you've got for nixing Anastasia's choices about the Keep.

I responded in the abstract because your post was in the abstract. If you had said "we should try to have 3 town players at one location, and two people I townread have already signed up for the Keep", I wouldn't have objected. I (mis?)took it as a claim that the Keep in particular is the best place to try to put 3 town.

Do you have a preference for how to fill the 3 minigames?

Nope. I defer to the more influential people, whose reads matter much more than mine.

[Something_Smart]

Well what's wrong with putting SS-Infinity-Unwnd at the Wall in the world where you are town?

Seems like it would be best to put universal scumreads at the Gate because one of them will hopefully get to be confirmed town.

[Something_Smart]

If you're self aware that you're doing this, why even ask me to come up with some examples?

So I can refute them?

There's no sense in digging through my ISO to guess what you're referring to and what your argument is when I can ask about those things.

[Something_Smart]

If it helps your meta ffery, s_s felt similar to this when he was scum in PyP

I played so badly in that game and I feel like my posting here is leaps and bounds better.

Just my $0.02. Of course I'm not expecting anyone else to reach the level of familiarity I have with my own game.

[Something_Smart]

My whole point was that you should not let your desire to put your team guess together seriously influence who goes where.

But, Infinity has a point that two scum at the Gate is undesirable. But I kinda think putting two towny people at the Wall is also a good idea?

It's difficult. I think the bottom line is that we want the Gate to have all the scummiest players after the swap (I THINK? I may try to math this out honestly because it's a costly thing to get wrong), and we want the Keep to have exactly one towny player after the swap. It's not totally clear what the best way to achieve that is, or even if there is a good way.

[Something_Smart]

I read through my ISO and cringed several times before I was like 50 posts in

[Something_Smart]

so my question to you is what is optimal then?

I kind of answered that here:

I think the bottom line is that we want the Gate to have all the scummiest players after the swap (I THINK? I may try to math this out honestly because it's a costly thing to get wrong), and we want the Keep to have exactly one towny player after the swap. It's not totally clear what the best way to achieve that is, or even if there is a good way.

I'm not vehemently opposed to Infinity's idea, but I feel like I would prefer this: 2 townreads + 1 nullread at the Keep, any remaining strong townreads at the Wall, then fill out the Wall with the scummiest players and put the rest at the Gate.

The reasoning being: you need exactly 2 known townies to guarantee victory at the Keep. The third is superfluous, and we might as well put a hard-to-read player there instead. Putting a known townie at the Gate meanwhile makes it trivial for the scum to give us no information with the IC reveal. (At least make them work, if they want to do that.) So, we put other townreads at the Wall. Then, we don't want to stuff the Gate with scummy people because that gives scum more control over who gets IC'd, so we put the other scummy people at the Wall (which we would be happy to turn into a 50/50 since it's the hardest minigame) and the rest at the Gate.

[Something_Smart]

I mean if Ana is the other consensus townread at the Keep then we can just tell the two people who end up there to vote for her and presumably at least one of them will.

[Something_Smart]

i would think town ss would jump at the chance to untunnel me

you clearly don't know me at all, then

[Something_Smart]

I'm not the kind of person who will do an impulsive suboptimal thing just to prove a point.

[Something_Smart]

There's just a small part of me that doesn't trust her despite everything because as a player I feel this is the sort of thing she would do as scum so holding her accountable to her willingness to vote someone who's not herself makes me more comfortable with her.

Sure. But in that case, she would be the nullread at the Keep, so we'd need another townread there.

[Something_Smart]

we dont really lose much this way

I've spent, like, my last three posts disputing this and you're just glossing over them

[Something_Smart]

What is your actual read on Ana?

Town

And I did say this before.

[Something_Smart]

Right.

What I actually said was, to the best of my memory, hiding reads

as much as possible

is beneficial to us. Obviously you need to talk about reads to some extent or you can never play the game, but we can e.g. bucket people into town/null/scum without going into detail on how confident those reads are.

The reason is-- and I did say this before-- scum will have either 6 or 15 legal swap actions. Combining that with the Gate reveal, they will have either 12 or 30 different options for what to do at night. They're obviously going to choose the one that they think gives them the best chance to win, and I would assume that they would have a plan for which minigames they wanted to win and how. All of that stuff is predicated on correctly predicting how people are going to act; so, the more unpredictable the townies can be going into D2, the more likely it is that scum will miss a potentially winning swap and execute a losing one instead.

[Something_Smart]

Don't you think that giving scum a blueprint of our plans is a bit unwise?

Well the alternative is not having a plan, so no.

The only concrete plans we've been talking about are ones involving the Keep; these may have been mistakes to bring up, but it's too late to do anything about it at this point.

[Something_Smart]

Well actually, I guess it depends what you meant. If you meant like saying exactly who we would be voting out in different scenarios, then yeah that's unwise. But if you're just talking about general things like "we want 2 townreads at the Keep" and "we don't want any obvtown at the Gate" I think they're definitely an overall plus.

[Something_Smart]

why was it so important to you to continue to argue with her despite claiming a townread?

well if she's an influential player and likely town, then it matters more that she not be wrong, no?

[Something_Smart]

The thing where you said it's better to put all our scum reads at the Gate instead is just irrelevant since unwnd is already at the wall so my team guess if accepted would have to be in the Wall not the gate.

I changed my mind on that. I want to have all consensus townreads except for two at the Wall, and the remaining Wall players to be consensus scumreads. If that's me, then I am perfectly fine to go there; I already said that I will defer to the louder people on where everyone should go.

[Something_Smart]

I guess what I'm saying is I was trying to reaction test you/infinity to see if either of you would actually be willing to go to the wall just to prove me wrong but neither of you volunteered to do that so now I feel more convinced I am actually right.

Volunteered as in actually signed up? Or just said "I'd be willing to go to the Wall"?

[Something_Smart]

yea if your initial reaction to me declaring that I wanted you/infinity at the wall with unwnd was

something along the lines of "sure i'll go to the wall just to prove you wrong"

I would've thought my guess is likely wrong.

Yeah, that's totally fair.

[Something_Smart]

I'd like to take a shot on infinity-ss-unwnd as the scum team because I am a naive dreamer.

or, get this: you don't, and then the scum probably rule it out via swaps. and if they don't, then we've seriously narrowed the amount of possible swaps available to them.

[Something_Smart]

If me, Infinity, and unwnd don't all end up at different locations post-swap, then we are 100% ruled out as a team. So if scum don't ensure that we do all end up at different locations, you got your wish at eliminating that team, without having to strongarm the locations. And if scum do ensure that we all end up at different locations, it means they couldn't use their swap to do whatever else they wanted to do.

[Something_Smart]

ok but why wouldn't the scum want to put you three in different locations?

In case they want to set up a win that relies on fooling someone who has different reads from you?

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure who else they would be trying to trick as nobody else has expressed a solve?

Well ultimately they need to trick whoever has the voting power. So if they're trying to win Gate, you can say all you want from Keep, but it's the IC who makes the final call.

[Something_Smart]

If I were scum and Briar/Ana were both town, I'd already be in the Keep

You would scumclaim and force the optimal move onto town?

[Something_Smart]

Am I misunderstanding what constitutes a swap?

Doubtful? The swap exchanges the locations of two players, such that there's exactly one scum at each location afterward. Are you having trouble following my post?

[Something_Smart]

No, I'm saying if we

aren't

grouped together on D1.

[Something_Smart]

727 was a follow-up of 722.

[Something_Smart]

ok but like if Briar and Ana are both town don't we want scum to take the last slot?

[Something_Smart]

Did you forget about the swap mechanic?

No but if we have two consensus town in the Keep then we don't care at all about the third slot. And if someone did scumclaim into it then there'd be no point in swapping one of them out since it's a guaranteed town win anyway.

[Something_Smart]

I want to get the day 1 clean win tho

It's literally not possible lol

Scum will not go along with it

[Something_Smart]

however the scum team I proposed SS-Infinity are both not as bold as Dunnstral so I can see them choosing to not sacrifice themselves at the Keep in a daring ploy.

It's also a bad play, so there's that.

[Something_Smart]

Yes I'm horribly confbiased - but that's kind of why I want the ss-infy-unwnd team to snap me out of it if I'm wrong <3

I feel like this is coming from scum!Anastasia who knows that the solve is wrong and wants to set up an unwinnable Wall

Look I can make stupid theories too

[Something_Smart]

I feel like this is coming from a scum!SS who has already considered the move that Dunnstral is proposing and decided it's not a good play to make.

In all honesty though this is silly and you should know it. I considered the merits of that play because Dunn brought it up. It's not like my response was instantaneous.

[Something_Smart]

None of the three of infy - unwnd - ss has reacted in a way that I'd think town!them would react

Roughly how many games of experience do you have with me?

[Something_Smart]

Keep resolves first so that doesn't even make sense.

I mean even if you flip scum in the Keep we would still have to figure out the Wall with three scummy people, when it could have included towny people which would have made it easier (which is what I'm suggesting)

[Something_Smart]

More than five.

But you seriously expected town-me to go "screw strategy, I'm gonna yeet myself into the Wall just to prove Ana wrong!"?

[Something_Smart]

you have to pick somewhere for for some reason. where else and why?

Wherever people agree would be best for me.

Agree being the operative word.

[Something_Smart]

Looks to me like the misunderstanding here is that absinthe said the solve was probably "close" which to me means 2/3 or better. For you to say that it isn't close means that you'd think at least 2 of the people in the solve are town which is predicated on your townread of me. Is that the way you meant it?

[Something_Smart]

I'm still mostly focused on figuring out which minigame I'll be able to do the most good in, and I'm anxious to make that choice and I'm frustrated about waiting to see if I'm welcome in the keep group.

I think you should go to the Wall, for several reasons.

[Something_Smart]

One of them was already explained, which is that it's good to have no more than two townread players at the Keep, seeing as we only need one to end up there post-swap.
The other is that the Wall is the hardest minigame and you're the kind of person who would give us a good shot at winning it

[Something_Smart]

I think Briar's townread of me is conditional on my willingness to vote Briar/Absinthe through

That's not a townread at all then

[Something_Smart]

I didn't think when I chose to come into the Keep with you that you could be so wonderful as you are and it makes me giggle a bit inside my heart.

You can't see how wide my smile is and I'm so glad I'm in here with you.

Get a room

[Something_Smart]

Infinity, remind me why you have unwnd as town?

[Something_Smart]

I felt like his play around ana has been quite towny, it feels like a genuine attempt to try to sort her through what seems like a layer of fog to him.

I just looked back through unwnd's ISO and I really don't see that much that seems to be sorting Ana at all, let along in a genuine way. Can you point to some posts that made you feel this way?

[Something_Smart]

EBWOP

I just looked back through unwnd's ISO and I really don't see that much that seems to be sorting Ana at all, let

alone

in a genuine way.

[Something_Smart]

So I pushed him to explain, and he backed down with "people just are not understanding my point" and even though I came back with "my entire goal right now is understanding your point, please explain" he never did. If a town player really thought we were potentially setting the keep up for an auto-lose situation, then I have to believe they would have pressed more to get the thread to understand the point he was making.

I thought he explained his point pretty well?

[Something_Smart]

With Luke's decision, there's no one else I'm willing to entertain as a Keep choice.

Wh-

Well okay then.

[Something_Smart]

Somehow I managed to avoid a double post by getting a preview on my own post lol

[Something_Smart]

So are we trying to avoid doubling scum up at the Gate? Because that gives them a lot of choices for who the IC is?

If so, then I think I'd like Infinity at the Wall.

[Something_Smart]

You're surprised?

Well I thought you had Ana and Briar both as town?

[Something_Smart]

Actually, there's no reason to be talking anymore, is there.

VOTE: Gate

[Something_Smart]

okay stop posting please

[Something_Smart]

That switch confuses me a little bit

How so?

[Something_Smart]

Dunn can you explain why you went Wall without consulting anyone?

[Something_Smart]

Dunn can you explain why you went Wall without consulting anyone?

[Something_Smart]

unwnd's read on something_smart almost feels like he's trying to tie them together, almost, in the way it's being presented.

well I really liked this read and thought it was right. so that's fun

[Something_Smart]

if Unwnd/Luke are both town then he needs to jump on the wall to prevent an auto-lose

how so

[Something_Smart]

This is untrue, as Infinity would have went to the wall otherwise

That is also untrue, because wouldn't scum want their strongest member at the Wall because they need to win it?

[Something_Smart]

i mean if you're scum and unwnd/luke are T/T then you need to jump on the wall because if a townie jumps on the wall the game is over.

*the townie. any one of the 3 scum would have to go to the wall before the single townie did, and they'd need to do so in a way that doesn't look like a scumclaim... right?

[Something_Smart]

Slightly lamenting the setup because all S_S/Catboi have to do is point the finger at the other now

there's two ways to read this and they both seem wrong to me.
"all we have to do" as in "all we NEED to do" well no, we may need to take a more active role in solving the other minigames in order to win.
"all that is available for us to do" again no, we can (and should) comment on the other minigames. since our group contains the IC it probably makes sense to resolve ours last anyway, unless the flip in our group provides a ton of information for solving another group.

also the setup is PERFECT don't you say anything rude about it

[Something_Smart]

SS are you TMIing catboi town?

No, that statement holds true if there are three scum in Dunn/catboi/S_S/Infinity as you are suggesting, regardless of who those three are.

[Something_Smart]

catboi is already at the keep and you should know catboi is scum from your pov lol

And I do. So?

[Something_Smart]

Ah yes I see where the confusion was. I had forgotten that catboi went Gate before Dunn went Wall. So yes in this case it does only apply if the team is exactly Dunn/catboi/Infinity and then they just have to be afraid that I would jump on the Wall which as Dunn correctly points out I would definitely not do without warning.

I was not posting from my own POV when I said that.

[Something_Smart]

Does anyone know if catboi likes to bus/distance?

[Something_Smart]

You two have a valuable piece of information none of the rest of us have.

Well, ish. Catboi and I also have the highest prior chance of being scum (aside from Infinity, of course), so our thoughts should be trusted the least before we've flipped. And after we've flipped, then everyone will have the information that we had.

[Something_Smart]

I think Lukewarm's posts have been solidly town and he'd be my first pick for someone to send to the wall right now

Hm

[Something_Smart]

remember the scum on the Gate can't really bus the scum on the Wall if the Keep is already townsided.

I mean they can if they don't expect to be believed...

Right now I'm leaning unwnd scum at the Wall

[Something_Smart]

How's this for a towntell

If I'm scum then we had six options and this seems like the literal worst one. Not only would we have chosen me over Infinity to try to carry the Gate, but we would have picked the IC to be someone who has demolished scum-me before and whose towngame I respect immensely. I don't know who Briar and Ana are but I highly doubt that I would be more scared of them as scum than I would be of ffery.

[Something_Smart]

This is actually kind of interesting and vaguely Monty Hall-ish.

If we assume that a me/Infinity team has an equal chance of sending either one of us to the Keep (seems plausible), and a catboi/Infinity team always sends Infinity to the Keep (also plausible), then my chances of being scum should have dropped about 33% overnight.

[Something_Smart]

Perhaps.

[Something_Smart]

Also re 1130 I think WIOFM cancels that out in theory because if you ended up deciding between me/catboi you would have to take into account the possibility that you're being set up. Maybe not in practice, but I think I would still certainly prefer to have Briar decide than absinthe.

[Something_Smart]

So Catboi and S_S both think Unwnd at the wall... why?

I did not like 755 as it felt like playing up outrage instead of actually engaging with your (valid) point
I did not at all like unwnd's townread of me. I thought catboi's point that unwnd was trying to tie themself to me was reasonable. I don't think it's any less reasonable now that I know catboi is scum.
Their opening post today is also really weird and feels hollow considering making absinthe IC makes a lot of sense from a lot of perspectives and 1/2/0 in Wall/Gate/Keep was kinda what everyone thought anyway
I thought Lukewarm had several genuine posts that would be surprising to come from new-ish scum
I would also be surprised to see scum-you talk about how you would scumclaim by instant jumping into the 2-town Keep followed by jumping into the 2-town Wall (which your team would REALLY need to win).

[Something_Smart]

I think it makes sense, send people with more WIM to other places to fight.

I'm not exactly Mr. WIM as scum though. My scumgame usually flags eventually as I find it harder and harder to make an effort; maybe I'd be better this game because it's only two days. Not sure. I think I'd also be demoralized by the way the day ended, unless it was planned with Dunnstral.

[Something_Smart]

Why's that?

Because you don't scumread me and aren't ffery

[Something_Smart]

So your post about the bravado was a reaction test? What reactions were you expecting as scum vs town?

pedit: @unwnd

[Something_Smart]

I find when Dunn is town the ends justify the means. When he's scum, he spends a lot of time in this mode of fake thinking. There's a more general vagueness and I feel like he's less battered because he doesn't want to risk the attention. This plays in part of him idling at times. Dunn isn't a hyperposter and keeps to himself, and I don't think he's the scum to make big moves. He waits for people to make mistakes and then capitalizes on them.

Okay so... does that explain 755? Did you know it wasn't really bravado?

[Something_Smart]

It seemed pretty fake honestly yeah

It's... it wasn't fake though. It was a legitimate question. And it wasn't bravado because he was specifically pointing out that he wasn't scumclaiming because scumclaiming would have been a reasonable play as scum.

[Something_Smart]

...No it wouldn't? This is why I shouldn't just assume your abacus always have best intentions you've lost me

From his point of view, I mean.

[Something_Smart]

Even if I said

I am

nya~t

mafia

? :<

Gottem

[Something_Smart]

1159

[Something_Smart]

Absin do you really think I'm just being double-bussed lol

Double?

[Something_Smart]

You and catboi both think I'm scum

Well that's only a single bus

[Something_Smart]

I'm just a bit frustrated with the one of you that is town

Why? Our reads are the least relevant ones in the whole game, and it should make you look more town if it's guaranteed that scum is pushing you, no?

[Something_Smart]

That demolishment was a long time ago. In our more recent games, I haven't been so much a ball of town fire.

you were good in antechamber!

[Something_Smart]

and I mean my opinion of your skill is not going to go down over time unless I've seen you play badly, which I wouldn't really say I have? you were good in Illicit too

pedit: @absinthe

[Something_Smart]

For both of you to think I'm scum it basically becomes 'oh great, I have to appeal to someone who is just trying to get me killed and someone who just misunderstands me' lol

you don't have to appeal to either of us

you have to appeal to our one confirmed town, and our two sorta-confirmed towns, and the two people who can actually decide your fate

[Something_Smart]

Do you feel like your scum game is weaker than Infinity's?

My scumgame is highly inconsistent. I haven't played versus scum-Infinity in a very long time; iirc her game was fine but nothing special, but that was before her hiatus so I have no idea if it looks the same nowadays.

[Something_Smart]

Not true because I literally have to read both of you

Well you don't

have

to but sure, it's a worthy goal. Is it really harder for you to wrap your head around a scumread on you than it would be for a different scumread?

[Something_Smart]

Yes because you're both going to be cagey with me given that you believe I'm scum

I don't think I will. At least I'll try not to.

[Something_Smart]

I think Dunn believes this to be true

+1

[Something_Smart]

Oh also I was avoiding saying it before Dunn answered my question at the start of the day but then I forgot. I think the Dunn townslip has a decent chance of being legit.

[Something_Smart]

You can tell me if I'm right about this guess in the postgame.

Spoiler: Why Infinity Came Back

The original scum plan was for infinity to pretend to be a tree in order to give as little information as possible.

As the evening wore on, the scumside realized that infinity's continued silence meant that me and briar would both be psuedo-ICs and could stay in the thread for longer, leaving Keep unresolved and weighing down the game state.

Realizing that this would be bad for them, they asked infinity to come back to the game to cast doubt on the Keep again in an attempt to reduce Briar/Me's influence on the game state.

This implies that I'm on the right path and my solve is indeed correct. Unwnd is scum and he needed Infinity to come back to salvage the situation or at least resolve Keep early so that he has the room to operate.

Interesting theory. Here's mine.

Spoiler: Why Infinity Came Back

She was busy last night.

[Something_Smart]

Gate last still feels like common sense to me. If we win the Gate, we likely win the game, and I have very little faith in us winning Wall.

[Something_Smart]

Hm, it's actually to my advantage to guess it, isn't it.

Is it the way I've been talking about mechanics?

[Something_Smart]

I was about to say 'is it possible that we're all town at the wall' but then I realized no lol

Actually all 9 of us are town and the game is a social experiment

[Something_Smart]

No.

Mm. My only other guess would be that I seem too confident in my unwnd scumread but I'm not sure if you know me THAT well.

[Something_Smart]

Welp, I'm out of ideas then. Guess I failed the pop quiz.

[Something_Smart]

I appreciate your effort despite the overwhelming odds against you - it is heroic and dashing <3

Your condescension, however, is neither of those things.

[Something_Smart]

It has to do with your interactions with me.

Hmm. I feel like my interactions with you have been pretty typical? Get an early townread, and then spend the rest of the game flattering you.

[Something_Smart]

I think Infinity probably should make the first vote in the Keep. If she's scum it doesn't matter, and if she's town we may be able to avert disaster.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think I've been condescending

Maybe I misunderstood that post but it read as though you were extremely confident unwnd was scum but wanted to commend them for trying, which feels patronizing. I would have been upset if a post like that had been directed at me.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think you've ever spent any part of a game flattering me. I've always felt like I make the initial reachouts, or we don't interact much at all.

I definitely have flattered you in my head. Maybe I didn't verbalize it as much because you were in a hydra in most of our games and it made it hard for me to tell who was posting, but like... I've always had a high opinion of your play.

As for the reachouts, well I bet that has to do with the game being smaller and open, as you said. Certainly, based on our history and how I generally play around people whose towngames I respect, I don't think I'd be trying to interact with you

more

as scum.

[Something_Smart]

Do you spectate games frequently?

No. I'll sometimes read random parts of games I'm not in, but I rarely follow them from start to finish.

[Something_Smart]

I couldn't have named any of the games before I looked, but I remembered you as someone who was playing during that time. Looking back at your games it was probably from Walking Dead (because I played in a lot of Radja's games and frequently referenced his previous ones for mod meta) and Midsummer Night's Dream (because I had a friend in that game who talked to me about it a lot).

[Something_Smart]

It was itlepip. I know him irl and he's the person who introduced me to the site.

[Something_Smart]

How does that post make any sense from a town POV who is scumreading unwnd?

is it really that hard for you to figure out?

[Something_Smart]

maybe the implication is he expects lukewarm to misvote on you?

I mean not especially. that would hardly be "no faith", after all

[Something_Smart]

Sorry to hear that.

[Something_Smart]

absinthe I still don't understand why you think I pick you as the IC over Briar.

[Something_Smart]

I don't really understand any of it tbh. Catboi didn't really do anything on D1, and right now they're just doing ~generic solving posting~ which is like exactly what scum just try to do naturally, and it seems like it's been established that they're competent enough to emulate it just fine as scum.

But it's like really not that good of an idea for town to do here? Like it's not

bad

but it's really not all that helpful and it seems to be presumably what's pushing the needle for you here?

Whereas I feel like I've taken a lot of angles and approaches to this game and if there's one thing I'm not good at as scum it's being dynamic... like I changed my tune about what was optimal multiple times, I tried to take into account people's changing reads, we juggled a lot of different mechanical plans, and I also stood my ground really hard against Ana when I could have just like... not said anything and let it drop. If the team really is me/Infinity/unwnd then there's no way that I would expect that arguing back against it as hard as I could would be the right way to make it look like that wasn't the team; and if it isn't that, then why am I drawing attention to myself at all?

I just haven't played this game with any agenda, at all. Catboi's D1 had very little content in the conversations that mattered and their D2 is basically entirely geared toward looking town in exactly the way that scum usually try to do (by solving and appearing reasonable). Whereas my D1 was inserting myself into lots of fast-moving discussions, often provoking disagreements, and navigating rapidly shifting sentiments. if you think that's something I can keep up with as scum... well, I can't, not even in my best scumgame ever by a large margin, where I still mostly stayed out of discussions that had mechanical implications.

[Something_Smart]

I don't really understand any of it tbh. Catboi didn't really do anything on D1, and right now they're just doing ~generic solving posting~ which is like exactly what scum just try to do naturally, and it seems like it's been established that they're competent enough to emulate it just fine as scum.

But it's like really not that good of an idea for town to do here? Like it's not

bad

but it's really not all that helpful and it seems to be presumably what's pushing the needle for you here?

Whereas I feel like I've taken a lot of angles and approaches to this game and if there's one thing I'm not good at as scum it's being dynamic... like I changed my tune about what was optimal multiple times, I tried to take into account people's changing reads, we juggled a lot of different mechanical plans, and I also stood my ground really hard against Ana when I could have just like... not said anything and let it drop. If the team really is me/Infinity/unwnd then there's no way that I would expect that arguing back against it as hard as I could would be the right way to make it look like that wasn't the team; and if it isn't that, then why am I drawing attention to myself at all?

I just haven't played this game with any agenda, at all. Catboi's D1 had very little content in the conversations that mattered and their D2 is basically entirely geared toward looking town in exactly the way that scum usually try to do (by solving and appearing reasonable). Whereas my D1 was inserting myself into lots of fast-moving discussions, often provoking disagreements, and navigating rapidly shifting sentiments. if you think that's something I can keep up with as scum... well, I can't, not even in my best scumgame ever by a large margin, where I still mostly stayed out of discussions that had mechanical implications.

[Something_Smart]

I can't tell if this is the site, or my computer/wifi, or PEBKAC. I don't even think I double clicked the submit button this time!

[Something_Smart]

Man, imagine how nice it would have been if we'd put Ana/Briar/absinthe at the Wall instead of at the Keep.

[Something_Smart]

uh if you didn't argue against it and I force that team through don't you just lose if that's the team

yeah but like you wouldn't be able to "force it through", one of us would always be able to just go somewhere else and ruin it. Plus... if you really did nail the team like that, I think we would probably feel justified in pulling a gambit such as agreeing to do it and hoping that WIFOM's you out of it. That's totally something I would do. And it seems like it probably would have worked!

[Something_Smart]

you mean imagine a world where unwnd didn't lock wall immediately?

I mean yeah, given how people are viewing the Keep I'm not convinced that it would have happened anyway. But yes this is why insta locking is bad.

[Something_Smart]

I am also horribly confbiased in my unwnd-infinity-ss solve :< sorry

Your waifu is shit

[Something_Smart]

Well this makes Gate super super easy now! Because why would I ever 1v1 catboi when I can 1v1 Infinity instead?

[Something_Smart]

Not really.

Do you not think that Infinity and I were scummier by consensus than catboi was?

[Something_Smart]

Ooh how about this. If I were scum with Briar I would have told her not to self hammer immediately, and instead try to influence the other games more... especially mine, since she'd been my most vocal supporter.

[Something_Smart]

I get why you're upset S_S but I'd appreciate if you gave me something more concrete

I don't understand any part of this post

[Something_Smart]

None of us were going to vote before she flipped

I mean is this true? Maybe it's true. But at the very least giving town less time to react to the flip is probably a good thing.

[Something_Smart]

I took your recent posts as bellyaching

They're not. I'm trying to convince absinthe I'm town. And they seem pretty concrete to me? Is there anything in particular you want to hear from me?

[Something_Smart]

What insight? On your group?

I could read back and see or someone competent could do it instead.

[Something_Smart]

I would have voted Anastasia in a heartbeat and had clearly broadcast my intentions to do so.

No you didn't?? Your last post mentioning them had them both as town.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see scum motivation in Anastasia's play and although briar's play didn't make a ton of sense to me I feel as though she's threadspewed from the townreads on her

Like, somebody tell me how this clearly broadcasts an intention to vote Ana over Briar.

[Something_Smart]

Also why do I spend so much time arguing that I would have swapped Briar instead of absinthe when I know that argument's about to be useless

[Something_Smart]

SS is majorly failing the vibe check right now - the emotional tenor of his posts is completely off.

The emotional tenor of my posts is EXACTLY where it ought to be as town right now, what are you even talking about?? I'm pissed that absinthe continues to not see this and now it's probably going to cost us the game and I have to keep flinging stuff at you because every separate argument I've made (which is a lot more than YOU have made) has come to nothing.

[Something_Smart]

I had been defending Ana earlier when several people were against her while my read on briar developed much more slowly, this isn't hard to see at all

It doesn't at all mean that one is stronger than the other. Also you made like one post defending Ana, this is not a slam dunk, not remotely, and I think you would see that if you weren't trying to be manipulative. (I mean maybe not, I don't know you. Maybe you just see what you want to see anyway, but hopefully someone who knows you can shed light on that.)

[Something_Smart]

This is so forced

How so?

[Something_Smart]

I feel like you've spent more time trying to prove that you're town than making a case on catboi. It's not a binary, but more effort has gone to the former on day 2 than the latter. Can you refocus a little?

I'm so so so bad at cases.

I can make a case on catboi if you want. But it's going to suck. So if you say that I'm scum because my case on catboi sucks, after I gave you this warning, I will scream irl.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not gonna explain it to you

But surely you want to explain it to absinthe, no?

[Something_Smart]

Turns out we would have lost the wall lol

Yes, but that's much less bad than losing the Keep!

[Something_Smart]

...for that very reason, Lmao. Are you kidding me?

I don't understand this, I did something that I knew would be useless, because it would be useless?

[Something_Smart]

Can we all collectively blame Ana for the loss at the keep?

No? Infinity was the one who misvoted, not Ana