Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]
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Mathdino Survivor
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/confirm-
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Mathdino Survivor
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VOTE: Jaydragon
Can't wait for a wagon on them-
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Mathdino Survivor
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This entire wagon is scum.
VOTE: Jaydragon-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Mathdino Survivor
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Idk about you
But being awesome enough to get shot by mafia N1 is my personal wincon-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I actually got vigged after being cop cleared once. Sad days.
Fitz, sell me on Kopscum?-
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Mathdino Survivor
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VOTE: Kop
sounds like a POLICY LYYYYNNNNCH-
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Mathdino Survivor
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@Jay: What? You didn't even vote what are you talking about
It's a personal meme that I like policy lynches. Threatening to lynch someone if they don't participate works for me.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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ok guys it's page 4 you can stop now
reads in a bit-
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Mathdino Survivor
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A50: looks town
Creature: nullscum, posting style feels a bit forced
fitz: first serious vote, doesn't really try to take credit for ending RVS, seems town
Impede: i have no idea what he's talking about in regards to Una but probably town just towning around
Jay: seems to be actively playing to his own meta. i don't think his behavior is super alignment indicative in general, and he's kind of a fluffy fluffer. i'm good with lynching him as a player until he learns not to be scummy. but then again he's probably town doing that weird "forced meta" thing
Kop: POLICY LYNCH. idk him giving advice to jay seems really forced, the way he's doing it. like he's speaking as a player and not as a townie?
Red: vague townish vibes
Una: i can't read any of this shit but i hope he contributes soon
everyone else: get in here so i can scumread you pls-
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Mathdino Survivor
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the point of this game is to do things in public that are readable
that's literally why i post reads lists; if i were confirmed town i wouldn't do that
when you put on an act all the time, that hurts our ability to read you and prevents you from truly becoming good town-
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Mathdino Survivor
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you're acting really fucking weird in a way that doesn't imply you have anything resembling a plan-
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Mathdino Survivor
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ugh you're really making me workIn post 90, Kop wrote:Can you elaborate on some of these, because this is striking me as forced reads. Your accusing me of looking forced, this is more forced shit rather than actual reads.
How does Almost50 look town, what does town look like? He's made one RVS vote, and one filler post. How does that make him look town?
Creature, if you believe he is nullscum, why aren't you voting him since he's virtually your only scum read?
Impede, how is he towning around?
Jay, so your happy to lynch someone just to learn them to stop acting scummy, rather than actually lynching someone who you scum read? Do you scum read Jay or not?
Myself, your talking about policy lynching someone on page 4, and no reason because Fitz has painted myself as a policy lynch because of previous games.
Overall, reading these reads, I don't think they are actually genuine reads right now, and is just trying to look active.
VOTE: Mathdino
i get this shit every D1
A50: Town off gut. His random vote seems pretty natural and not the kind of hostile thing scum would go for early on.
Creature: Because I'm already voting/scumreading you? I don't need to answer to you where my vote is . I also like wagons better than singular votes.
Impede: I answered this one pay attention
Jay: I don't believe at this point that anything Jay does is alignment indicative, because he purposefully puts on an act/facade as both alignments. This masks his scumplay while giving him plausible deniability because he acts equally weird as town. Given that he plays like a survivor and apparently doesn't wanna be good enough to get shot by scum, I would call him a LyLo liability and would be fine with a lynch on him at any point (I'm a Lynch All Survivors kinda guy) until he cuts the act and gives us something readable.
You: I'm not gonna answer this one. How does that make you feel?
Yes, I force reads at the beginning of every D1. Builds a foundation on which I can develop future reads, gets my momentum going. And I guess it generates discussion or some shit; everyone's discussing it. I'm not so inconfident as to believe that I can't read early posts, but I'm also not so arrogant as to think that those reads won't change. And when they do change, I'll say so, so you guys can see the path of my thought process through the day. That's the point.
The only games where I don't do reads lists and shit is when I'm confirmed town. No point in giving you guys a record of my thoughts when you already know for sure I'm town.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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My vote stands on Mr. "Votes A Guy For Making A Reads List".
@Almost50:Where the fuck do you think I got my town lean on you?
@Red:Because people apparently can't read between the lines, when I say "he speaks like a player and not a townie" that literally means I lowkey think Kop is scum.
Getting town vibes from Assemble. Red is probably surface-level-scumhunting town (lol at "scum would not start a discussion").
I'm torn on Hawk. I love his post 96 and I think it's objectively #goodposting but I can't bring myself to townread it.
@Hawk:ey bby hit me up with one of ur dopeass scumgames pretty pls
I was going to townread Impede but his last post makes me feel iffy.
Might do a questions list later on if I feel like it, might not.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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well you're clearly aware of it so that nulls the fuck out of my read
thanks dude-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I've done meta on you, and I'm going off that meta, not off anything else (don't talk about or reference ongoing games, the circumstances may be different). I understand that your playstyle works for you; my perspective is I like to be able to read players and I'm generally okay lynching players I find unreadable. In your case I think that unreadability is purposeful.In post 111, JaydragonKing wrote:After stumbling my first game, I learned I like the way I play now, and it will eventually adapt, but that's for future me to deal with. What I don't get is the fact your already pushing me out as a liability, Dino. If you want to discredit me in the game, do it when I actually have something really tangible to push against.
Your also even more pushy then before, too. Thinking about what kop said, with you trying so early and yard to get out reads, I'm inclined to believe his statement until further evidence is given.
That said, this is a misrep. I made a list of all players that had posted during RVS and came up with a read on them. Yours was the following:
It was only after Kop questioned me about it that I expanded and posted what you're now responding to. My intent was not to push you as a lynch or make lynching you a massive topic of discussion because I think that's, right now, a distraction from actual scumhunting.Jay: seems to be actively playing to his own meta. i don't think his behavior is super alignment indicative in general, and he's kind of a fluffy fluffer. i'm good with lynching him as a player until he learns not to be scummy. but then again he's probably town doing that weird "forced meta" thing
If you believe him on me being scum, why aren't you voting me?-
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Mathdino Survivor
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You realise that it benefits scum more than town to withhold your vote all day?-
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Mathdino Survivor
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VOTE: JaydragonKing
You don't seem to understand that you're intentionally being anti-town. Or you do understand and don't really care. This game is not about personal benefit, it's a team game.
Because people will inevitably ask me, no, I don't have a read on this guy, when I earlier said that he's "probably town doing that forced meta thing" I meant he literally has a 75% chance of being town. But whatever.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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this game is low energy as shit
Kop is seeming townier to me at this point.
Is momo usually scummy in this particular way? He's unironically arguing that people who double vote in RVS are anti-town for generating fake chaos. Also "All those of you who double and triple voted need to get your shit together and start playing towards the town wincon" seems like he already knows that he's chewing out townies. What's his scumgame like?
A50 is either town or is rhetorically masturbating to his own playstyle. Which would be pretty ballsy scum, but I'm not planning on spending too much time deconstructing a generally helpful player on D1. We'll revisit that read if we're both alive later on.
I guess I'll ISO people and do a questions thing-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Do you have any lynch ideas then? I agree with (idk who said this) someone that lynching Jay is a good option but shouldn't be the only topic of discussion. I don't really have any ideas for discussion though.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Long deadlines benefit scum. I'll support extension only if there are replacements or we seriously need input from certain players.
I don't like RedFlavor's last post. Seems opportunistic.
VOTE: RedFlavor
As good a place as any to start a non-policy wagon.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I mean that lowkey implies some shit like HEY GUYS I'M A COP WITH AN INNOCENT ON REDFLAVOR. Or masons or something.
Luckily I can't claim either. This is a good wagon, sheep meeeee-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved-
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a quick lolcase
to be clear my previous read on red was based off tonereading which is horseshit compared to motivation reading
This is almost definitely affected by my confbias of now scumreading Red butIn post 17, RedFlavor wrote:
I don't remember that game but it is probably howl or magic girlsIn post 16, Almost50 wrote:VOTE: RedFlavor
They fled the last game and left us wandering in the darkness. It's payback time.
VOTE: almost50
this is weird, it's like he's going through the motions of throwing out a random vote. No fake-RVS reason given, just a vote.
Earlier I called this surface level scumhunting and then assumed that people who do that are just bad town. I haven't seen further evidence of Red being bad town so I consider this terrible reason for calling me town (followed by lowkey throwing shade at a supposed townread) kinda scummy.In post 95, RedFlavor wrote:I don't think that Mathdino is scum because posting reads this early will start a discussion and a scum would not do that. The part where he says "he speaks like a player and not a townie?" is kinda weird tho
btw I also don't know anything about anyone except una, I played my first game with him however it was like 4 months ago and I forgot about that game (on purpose ).
Scum's best tool is divide & conquer. Kop's whole thing was "wow posting a reads list this early, seems forced". I see Red encouraging this on purpose to fan that conflict.In post 100, RedFlavor wrote:kop's questions to mathdino about others and himself seems ok and townie.
And other people are null
BTW, I have 3 finished games here but I played a few games on other sites
Tbh if Kop is scum then Red is probably not scum with him but we have no information so fuck pre-flip associatives.
A dumbass vote after we just had a whole discussion about momo-lynchbait. Opportunistic, voting someone for calling something else anti-town. "He's trying to look town" is the most basic reason possible to call someone scum.In post 156, RedFlavor wrote:It was RVS and double votes were under the VC. You could easily check if they were double votes and I dont know how it is bad for town. For kop, he dont really try hard to look like town like momo did in his post. What I think is momo is trying to look townie here because he is scum.
VOTE: momo
Again fanning the flames. BigFinn will probably get replaced, Lynching All Lurkers isn't really a helpful discussion to have.In post 156, RedFlavor wrote:
Yes he have been really quiet and it started to becoming suspiciousIn post 148, Almost50 wrote:
This is Finn's entire ISO! Assemble also posted once, but -at least- he said something game-related.In post 92, BigFinn wrote:What's up humans?
Let me lead by example
VOTE: BigFinn
Basically I haven't seen a single good thought from RedFlavor so far, but I see a lot of thoughts and baseless reads thrown around.
On reread, this isn't gonna be very convincing because you guys will literally just disagree with me on what's a pro-town discussion to have. But at the very least this tells you where I'm at.
my wagons are awesome, sheep meeeeeeee-
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Mathdino Survivor
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lol people who don't think they can correctly read people off little informationIn post 171, Impede wrote:
I think you're either wrong, or right for the wrong reason.In post 168, Mathdino wrote:Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved
Idk argue with me. Every post Una makes seems like a town kind of self-consciousness. Seems like he's coming at this from a pro-town mindset.
this is hilariously and honestly dangerously wrongIn post 172, Almost50 wrote:as I believe Scum would be less motivated to be active during the holidays (it's a good excuse for low activity).-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I was about to ask if you actually had a point here that relates to an action we should take. I guess I'm still asking that.In post 178, JaydragonKing wrote:Uh, guys? I'm kinda scared when I look at the setup page.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B
It's history at the bottom literally says town has only won with this once,while the Serial Killer and the Mafia have three each under their belt, and a draw between them. That does not bode well for the majority.
But MY point is, I had an idea yesterday that I forgot to mention:
We should all hypoclaim (ideally different) Hider targets, and I will personally lynch anyone who doesn't.
There's a 53% chance there's a Hider in this setup. For those not in the know, Hider hides behind someone. If that person is shot or is scum, Hider dies. If the person is town AND isn't shot, Hider lives.
Hider is a weak-ass role specifically because it's hard as shit to tell who they hid behind. It's also tough to even decide who to hide. If you hide behind a super-townie, you run the risk of your target dying. If you hide behind a scummy/null target, you run the risk of hiding behind scum and dying. It's really only useful if you survive and can confirm someone as town. You can't even out publicly that you're hider and who you're gonna hide behind because then scum will just shoot your target if they're town.
Hypoclaiming (Hypothetical claiming) means saying "If I WERE the hider (which I might be), I would hide behind [player x]". As mafia doesn't know who the hider is, they can't just shoot the hider's target and expect to kill someone. If/when hider actually does die, we'll know who they hid behind.
So I'll start.
If I were hider, I would hide behind havingfitz.
Everyone else should go at some point before the day ends.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Bro the whole point is that if we all claim a different hider target, EVERYONE turns into NK-bait. Ideally every single one of us will be someone's hypothetical target. So that way scum doesn't have a better chance of killing a hider by shooting one person over anyone else.In post 181, JaydragonKing wrote:Oh don't you dare Momo. I'm not going to keep saying it so it doesn't get annoying, But I still want to live. Don't bait kill me.
But if I HAVE to play along with Dino... I wouldn't even hide night one and function as a named townie day two.
Also you wouldn't even be a named townie D2. If you claimed hider we'd have literally no way to confirm that. Counterclaiming doesn't work in this setup. Maybe we're all VTs, maybe there's 4 town PRs, who knows. You'd be even less believable if you claimed hider and then said "whoops I don't have any results to share with the class".
If you are a hider, please please hide tonight. More information is better than no information. Acting like a VT is just throwing away your power.
And yeah the game is crawling along. Happy New Year's Day? I'm currently good with a lynch on RedFlavor or Jaydragon, and would like prods on inactives. I'm guessing BigFinn isn't gonna show up at all.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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2 points you're making here.In post 185, JaydragonKing wrote:But being a hider comes with the risk of fucking with town even more if you hide in the wrong place. Scum can shoot a townie who the hider is on and they die, everyone-town and scum alike- could make a case that they he was on a scum instead and died that way. You can't ignore the benefit of having a named townie day 2.
1. It's bad to hide.
This is objectively wrong, and if it were true, hider wouldn't even be a normal role. If EVERYONE says "If I were hider, I'd hide behind [x]" then scum doesn't know who to shoot, and if the hider dies, we'll know the next day who they hid behind so we can decipher the night action.
Also the whole point of claiming who you'll hypothetically hide behind is so no one can make the case that the hider died by hiding behind scum. I'm doing this specifically to nullify scum's ability to make that case.
2. Hider is effectively a named townie on D2.
Claiming hider does not clear someone. There's a high chance we don't have a hider at all, which would make hider a great fakeclaim for mafia. This isn't a benefit at all, it's just added WIFOM. A claimed Hider is absolutely useless if they don't have information to share.-
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It's actually a much weaker cop, since it also dies if scum shoots the hider target.In post 187, JaydragonKing wrote:I really am finding it hard to understand the hider role... But if I just compare it to another role, let's just say it's a semi-weak cop. So your brilliant solution to let him do his investigations with the illusion of scum not being able to figure out he is visiting. Great.
[snip]
Here's the situation I'm trying to avoid: "JaydragonKing has died N1! He was the Hider! [Player X] has died last night! She was a Vanilla Townie!" In this situation, we don't know if you died by hiding behind scum, or by hiding behind Player X.
But if you hypoclaim that you're hiding behind Player Y, then we'll all know that you hid behind Player Y and died while scum shot Player X. THAT is the point of hypoclaiming. It allows us to find scum if/when Hider dies by hiding behind scum, as an additional benefit to Hider being able to already confirm people as town.
Relying on a Tracker that may not exist is a bad idea when Tracker doesn't even know who the Hider is. If there were FOR SURE a Tracker AND a Hider (Hard Boiled Mafia), I would support that idea 100%. That's actually exactly what I tried to implement when I played Hard Boiled.
You're basically right. Hider dies if they hide behind scum or a person who dies that night.In post 188, Hawk wrote:Doesn't the hider die with the person shot??
Example for arguments sake I am a hider and we all claim our hypohider targets while I claim my actual target.
Scenario 1.
Kop is town and is shot.
We both die. Doesn't really help town.
Kop is scum and I die.
Kop is confirmed scum unless someone claims like doc right?
That's what I'm getting from hider right? They're like suicidal cops at night? Or are the protective roles??
Pedit: Are we guranteed tracker with a hider??
Scenario 1 is correct, but could happen even if you didn't hypoclaim, and at least we know you didn't hide behind scum.
Scenario 2 is exactly correct and is the purpose of this plan.
The ideal of course is that Hider gets multiple nights to "investigate" so they can also clear someone as town by hiding behind them. Hypoclaiming allows us to see their hiding history if they happen to die later on before hardclaiming.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Holy shit, Hider should absolutely not claim today, I think this is obvious xD
Why would Hider claim right now when we could all just hypoclaim and mafia has no idea who to shoot?
And yes, natural action resolution dictates that the Tracker does see where the Hider goes. I've played with Tracker/Hider before.But it's more likely than not that we don't have a Tracker/Hider combo, so doing that is useless. Again, if we for sure had a Tracker/Hider, I would agree with you (read my Hard Boiled Mafia game), but we don't have that for sure, so Hider hypoclaiming is our best option.-
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See this. I prefer forcing reads in situations where I don't know what to do, than saying "whelp idk what to do".In post 101, Mathdino wrote:Yes, I force reads at the beginning of every D1. Builds a foundation on which I can develop future reads, gets my momentum going. And I guess it generates discussion or some shit; everyone's discussing it. I'm not so inconfident as to believe that I can't read early posts, but I'm also not so arrogant as to think that those reads won't change. And when they do change, I'll say so, so you guys can see the path of my thought process through the day. That's the point.
The only games where I don't do reads lists and shit is when I'm confirmed town. No point in giving you guys a record of my thoughts when you already know for sure I'm town.
This is correct, and is why I didn't like RedFlavor handing me a townread for that. I don't think in general that making an early reads list is alignment indicative.In post 215, sheepsaysmeep wrote:
good scum try to control the discussionIn post 95, RedFlavor wrote: I don't think that Mathdino is scum because posting reads this early will start a discussion and a scum would not do that.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I don't think I can really answer this. Like my thought process at the time was sitting down and goingIn post 220, sheepsaysmeep wrote:math, which reads are purely unforced?
Me: PolicyWagoning Kop is cool but doesn't really do anything interesting for us
Me: Bunch of people have posted, it's as good a time as any to do a reads list
Me: Nothing super stands out, I'll just ISO everyone and toneread them
*does so*
This is kind of the process of me coming up with reads lists in general. If you see me point out something in the moment being like "THIS SHIT IS TOWN" or "OH SHIT THAT WAS SCUMMY" that would be purely unforced. But forcing myself to come up with thoughts is part of my scumhunting process. And if I'm alive lategame, and there's a ton of material to look through, my process will be wiping myself of any preconceptions (bias is bad) and forcing potentially new reads on the ISOs of the remaining players.
Hope that helps you understand how I think.
Here's another example, as I was about to press submit, I was like "Huh, sheep's given material for me to work with now". So I read through your posts this past page and just decided you were town. Good to know.
sheep's probably town, displays clear pro-town reasoning and flow of thought, without opportunism.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Thanks! The last time I started hydraing with people to spice things up I overgamed myself and started flaking, so hit me up after this game is over or after I'm dead and that'd sound fun.In post 226, Impede wrote:Totally not game-related and definitely not buddying: Math, if you're ever interested in a hydra, I really like your playstyle and feel like I could learn a thing or two if you're up for it after certain game(s) end.
And lol at Jay literally critiquing someone's word choice rather than their alignment.
Jay, gimme reads, let's go.-
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momo @ Jay
Creature @ Hawk
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Assemblerotws @ UnaBombaH
Kop @ Almost50
Almost50 @ Creature
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop
havingfitz --------------
Impede @ momo
Mathdino @ havingfitz
JaydragonKing @ NOONE
I think every target's been taken except RedFlavor and Assemble. fitz and Jay can fight over those 2.
For those wondering what we'll do when someone gets lynched, we can "close the loop" so to speak. I'll explain when we get closer to the actual lynch but the idea is that if, for example, I got lynched, the guy targeting me (Una) would instead target my target (havingfitz).
sheep's probably town but I know nothing about his scum meta so what the fuck do I know.
This game is progressing really slowly.
PEdit: lol that feel when momo's reads are dependent on how people read him-
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How does you posting about the unfortunate nature of previous townies in this setup actually help anyone? I assume you have a finite amount of time to play. If you spend that time doing/saying useless things (like you've been doing), people will suspect you for it.In post 250, JaydragonKing wrote:How does me posting about the unfortunate nature of previous townies in this setup make you want to Lynch me? Did the news unsettle you that much?
My reads haven't shifted so far. I'm getting the standard "top-tier player" read from fitz, which is that he has good thoughts and adds to the discussion, but he would also obviously be doing all that as scum. So we'll wait a bit on locking that read.
Lynchpool is still basically RedFlavor and Jay.
@fitz:Impede-scum is an unpopular choice. Sell me/the rest of the class on it? Would be good to have competing wagons.-
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Yet I provided you with a better strat informed by my experience with Opens, and you outright denied it until the majority forced you to. You actually thought the hider hiding at all is useless.In post 255, JaydragonKing wrote:Me giving the setup history wasn't really useless for those of us who can study the previous uses of this setup for better strats, Dino. People can disagree with what I said, but none of what I've said is truly useless. The fact that you consider stuff like that useless is more telling to me, honestly.
You still haven't given me reads.-
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"it's scummy to change your mind given new evidence"In post 258, JaydragonKing wrote:Again, Instantly changing your mind right after you said something. Very nice, Sheep.
Please demonstrate towards the class your answer and your personal reasoning. This project will be worth 20% of your final grade.
"everyone else has to give reasoning but not me"
"i can be condescending but no one else can"
VOTE: Jay
This is a distraction. We have enough players to spend a lynch on a LyLo liability. Ideally a tight wagon will motivate better play.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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you failedIn post 265, JaydragonKing wrote:I want to actually contribute nicely, but I decided to also be a shithead and post my reads the way I did if for no other reason then to annoy him.
i am genuinely entertained by your reads list and this makes me slightly less likely to policy lynch you
but yeah moving on-
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Please just explain. Game's slow enough that I think you're gonna have to wait a while before you get answers from everyone.In post 267, UnaBombaH wrote:I also want everyone to try again on who they scumread/want to lynch for today.
Both Elsa and Red are on the table as lynch-candidates, but I have reason to believe I already found scum, and his buddies conveniently "missed" the tells.
Turning towards the easy target (Elsa) right now makes me think there's already scum in the wagon..
In case you needed more evidence on Una being town, A50, there you go. Scum doesn't write shit like this.-
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@Almost50: I try not to lynch people that I have a feeling I can get the mod to replace.
I'm not a fan of relying on night actions in a setup like this, where it's possible the town consists of like 2 1-shot power roles.
I think I have a few solidified townreads. Problem is this playerlist is full of high-quality similar-playstyle players with a couple VI-esques. Not an easy to read cohort.
But more wagons helps us with later analysis. We have about a week to produce good content for later days. I'm good with our current path (as long as people start getting in here and being active).
PEdit: Wow Creature just beetlejuiced into the thread. No prod requests then.-
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I don't yet have a strong opinion on A50. My input is just that A50's playstyle/relationship toward me reminds me very strongly of Wisdom's in Open 581, which was buddying (I buddied back) and explicitly saying in the scum PT that he'd pocketed me. Eventually figured it out and lynched him D2.
I'm pretty good at strong-defending my townreads so I think I come across as an attractive player to buddy. Next time I do a reads list I'll go over his ISO and see if that's what's going on.-
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Idea of Una-scum is crazy. He hasn't convinced me on his reads yet but he's definitely convinced me on his alignment.
A point in A50's favour is that he redirected the whole game to suddenly focus on a budding Creature wagon, which seems to consist solely of scummy players. I don't see the scum motivation yet.
I could strong-scumread A50 later but he's not a good D1 lynch.
For D1 lynches I like lynching players that the consensus agrees are too scummy to stay in the game or read properly for the rest of the game. The players that'll continue being on everyone's lynchlists until we do the deed. Not the players that are clearly contributing new/original ideas. Even if they're scum, they're helping us in the meantime by giving us more material to analyse later.
A50 and Hawk are in that boat (fitz too but less so since I'm townreading him); I could scumread them, and I'm having serious trouble reading them now, but that's D1 syndrome. When players like that are scum, I usually catch them D2.
Gimme a different scumread to work with.-
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I'm not comfortable coming up with a set of 3 consistent scumreads while there are still a few players that are unreadably inactive.
I agree with whoever said that this game doesn't really have anyone who *pops*. It's getting me to start thinking in good lynches rather than massive scumreads. Honestly, my only solid scumread is Red. Jay and maybe Creature are just good lynches.-
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If Red is town (as almost all D1 lynches are), my gut says that his townishness will come out later. It's possible his lynch will be unnecessary.
If Jay is town, I don't think it'll ever be obvious. He either gets lynched or goes to LyLo. There's no way he's getting shot.
He's LyLo mislynch bait.-
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Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.
Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.-
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For some reason I had it in my mind that A50 started the "Lynch Creature" idea. Now that I see he only started advocating that after the idea was presented, that definitely blows some of his towncred. So touche on that.
That said, this is half OMGUS. Not the most substantial thing and you only came up with it after we started pressuring you to come up with reads. You can squeeze original ideas out of any player, town or scum, with enough votes.In post 265, JaydragonKing wrote:I agree with most of the reasons of why Red is scum, and Creature is there because not only is his RVS vote still on me after all this time, his only relevant comment recently was answering Math's general question to everyone in one sentence only after Dino shit on me for saying "none", he didn't want the same thing and just said it to say he was there.
So continuing to threaten Jay with a lynch actually has a lot of utility in my mind.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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I understand your point too (still disagree, but I get it). I wasn't really intending to read into people's hider choices. That was a process of optimising nightplay, not dayplay. As it is, since everyone's already picked, I don't see much utility in going back and repicking. And to have people swap their hider picks would just draw the NK to them because it only matters if they're actually the hider.In post 327, Kop wrote:I understand that point on what your trying to make, but from my understanding, it would be useful if they went with there feels, rather than 'oh he's took him, I'll take someone else'. That way I can see what they are feeling and not going with the flow of the game.
I chose mine, without even looking at others, and went with what I feel I would have done if this were the real case.-
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Holy fuck dude I was just about to make a post agreeing with you and then I saw this bullshit:In post 330, Kop wrote:
How do you read Impede right now?In post 323, Mathdino wrote:Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.
Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.
I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.
"I've won as scum in LyLo so I'll be great when the time comes". This is half a threat, and literally just proves to me that he's ok at not getting lynched. Also didn't you replace into that game?In post 331, JaydragonKing wrote:I've legit already made it to LyLo in one complete game already, if you must know, Kop. And that one time I did, I won as scum. I will be a wonderful addition to LyLo.
You should only worry about me when there is NO active suspicion on me. That's when shit seems to be going scums way, regardless of me being scum or not.
Anyway I don't townread Impede enough to oppose his lynch, but I don't scumread him enough to really push or care for the lynch like I do with RedFlavor.
I have enough material for another ISO-based reads list on everyone but Assemble, so expect that.-
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Would that even be a viable strategy? They HAVE to know that I'd just try to lynch both of them regardless of their flips.-
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This is fair, and I kinda realised this upon posting. But there wasn't really a way to phrase my thoughts on A50 in a way that's both honest/not scummy. Wasn't gonna bullshit a read just to answer the question.In post 336, Impede wrote:
Bookmarking this. This is fence-sitty enough on A50 to suggest an associative read if we get a scumflip on either him or Math.In post 318, Mathdino wrote:[snip]
D1 lynch rationale is nice though, but scum could just as easily post this.-
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Good. I'm satisfied. Welcome to the game, Jay.
UNVOTE: Jay
New vote on next reads list.-
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jesus christ guys stop quote-walling
i'm starting to tune out this argument-
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No way we're lynching this unless something big changes:
Unabombah: Good thoughts, a lot of original thoughts, seems genuinely interested in the game. Went after A50 who's almost definitely not getting lynched today. There's no scum motivation in jumping for the highest possible fruit.
Sidenote: If Jay flips scum, I'm seeing a strong association. Una's an independent town read, but Una/Jay would make a lot of sense as a team.
Sidenote: Bookmark this. If I die tonight, it will likely confirm Una's alignment one way or the other. Not saying more, don't ask me.
@Una: Give me better lynch ideas than A50 please. You mentioned you think certain people are his buddies?
havingfitz: Town or really good scum (the possibility of such puts him below Una). Interesting case on Impede, again seems interested in gamesolving. This is WIFOMy but policy lynching is scummy on MS and he opens with a policy lynch. Drawing that attention would be bad as scum. This assumes he plays scum differently from town in a similar way to how I play different.
@fitz: I noticed you left sheep off your reads. Reads?
Kop: Weird reads that I'm unconvinced on (obviously scumreading my reads list was part of that) but I at least believe now that they're genuine. Questions with clear purpose that moves the game forward and prevent it from stagnating. Pro-town even if scum.
sheep: Just a lot of pro-town behaviour in general. If he becomes a topic of discussion, I need to meta him to find out if he's just a better/more contributing player when he's scum, because I know there are a lot of players like that this year. From seeing a few of his previous town games he's definitely better this game. Could be improvement. For now he's on the bottom of my townlist.
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Null-town and generally bad lynch ideas
momo: I honestly don't think he's contributed much to the game, but he's not not-contributing in a way that's scummy. Most lynchable player in all of ms.net right? Good taste in wagons but that's really beside the point.
@momo:Bro you only give scumreads. Who're your townreads?
Assemble: Needs replacement but slightly reads town.
Hawk: Reads like a good/charismatic player. I'm not gonna be able to read him well until we get some flips to use associations on.
@Hawk:Expand on your fitz read. It's definitely an unpopular opinion.
Almost50: Yeah crucify me. I'm not willing to lynch him D1. I'm not townreading him since he kinda blew all his towncred. But I think I said this before; this is the kind of player I can catch on D2, especially with a couple flips. As promised, I ISO'd him for buddying evidence and reviewed the guy who buddied me previously. I'm not seeing it as much as I thought I was. The best tell for scum trying to buddy is, I think, completely not acknowledging townreads on them while charismatically working with the buddy target. I'm not getting that impression from A50.
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I don't really give a shit if they're lynched:
Impede: I'm almost convinced on him but not yet. I wanna see where this argument goes. Null for now.
Jaydragon: Not super readable, but is at least acting a little pro-town. Constantly holding a lynch over his head seems to have some utility, so here it is. I'm semi-convinced by Kop suggesting that we save Jay for tomorrow tbh.
Creature: Upon ISOing him, throwing out townreads without having a real scumhunty goal in mind is a HUGE red flag for me.
@Creature:You need to give scumreads. Right now, you're not really in the game.
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God I feel bad but this is the only real scumread that's popped out:
RedFlavor: I gave a case on him already. Posts since that case are all posts that I feel have some good scum motivation. Throwing suspicion while taking credit for an unpopular opinion (don't lynch Jay guys, that's ML bait).
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This was a lot weaker than I expected. Obviously at least one of my town-to-null-town reads is wrong. But I'm still kind of in the "who's a good D1 lynch" mindset. Scum isn't popping out to me. I expect D2 will be better.
I need to delve through all the cases going around. Gonna be honest, I haven't really read them too attentively. So that's next on the to-do list.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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ohhhhhhhhhhh so that's what that post meant
thought he meant he was sheeping someone to obtain his town list-
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ah fuckshit i forgot a vote
VOTE: RedFlavor
I'm willing to lynch/hammer anyone below Almost50 if it comes down to the wire.-
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Mathdino Survivor
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Shit, that's actually my kind of logic. You're right, Jay is a high-information lynch.
Buuuuuut I don't like to vote-hop before the results of a vote play out.
So let's see what happens with the wagons. We're not close to a lynch.-
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I'm beginning to think you're being cryptic because you know people will townread you for it (like me). That's really the only benefit of doing this, and I honestly think the drawbacks of slowing the game down outweigh the gains.In post 390, UnaBombaH wrote:I'll offer a deal to all the townies around after I've had a good night sleep..there is a lynch we can pull off today, and not likely later!
Is it momo?-
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So momo just rocketed to the top of my town list.-
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I do have an objective problem with scumhunting in this way. My experience is that town usually fumbles more when questioned.In post 403, momo wrote:Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?-
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That makes no sense for him to say A50. A50 is literally the guy that I'm saying "I'm not willing to lynch him today, but depending on the flip I'll be much more interested in lynching him tomorrow".
What would make him think we can't get a lynch on A50 later on?-
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The hilarious thing is I honest to god thought masons were possible in this setup until Jay said that. I think I even suggested masons as a possibility earlier O_O
I'm unconvinced on this specific issue. Like I'm totally down for the Jay lynch but I don't think "Jay checks the wiki page" is really the keystone of the Jaycase, or some kind of smoking gun. Scumslips don't really look like this.
Edit: fuck you for ninjaing my exact thoughts-
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