Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.

I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.

I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

Do you not see how suspicious this looks?

[Frogsterking]

#1

I'm sure 'why did you take so long to out?' is a fairly common reaction and doesn't imply what you think it does.

#2

Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.

#1

"why did you take so long to out?" is a great example of a common response from a player who is NOT being guiltied, "I'm not mafia! I'm the xyz! vote: frogsterking" is an example of a common response from a player being wrongly guiltied.

The only times I've ever seen a guiltied player only response be "why did it take you so long to out?" was when they were guilty. And it's far from a common response. I'm not denying that it could happen, and I'm sure at some point it will happen, it just seems very unlikely to be the case in most examples.

#2

You said you're a player that just automatically votes anyone who fake claims and did not offer any rationale for this. I offered you reasons to the contrary and suggested that your position is dogmatic.

You then referenced the thousands of games on EM to show that you have some experience with reaction tests and that you've seen a lot of them and determined them to be worthless, defeating the point of fake claiming in the first place, defending your position of automatically voting fake claimers.

I said that I also have lots of experience with fake claims and reaction tests and determined them to have utility in some situations, such as this one.

Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests, you just wanted to help me understand your original perspective, which is that you automatically vote anyone who fake claims without any kind of rationale, and added that it's impossible to change your mind, a position I described as dogmatic offered some reasoning and counterexamples for.

Is this accurate?

Frogster as someone who seems incredibly prone to confirmation bias, I think maybe you should be extra careful with reaction tests. Either you are a Mafia God who basically solved the game Day 1, or you saw exactly what you wanted to see from that test. I still think you're more likely to be Town than Mafia, but I feel like you're verging on being a liability.

Lunar my initial read on Bugs both days was that they are town, and both days I was dissuaded from that belief because Luca made better points and I townread them very strongly, I was unsure of Bugs because I had two townreads contradicting each other after Galreon said Bugs was town, at the point of time I did the reaction test I was just as predisposed to view Trendall, Momrangal, and Bugs as scum, but Bugs reaction was decidedly worse because it doesn't make that much sense. If they already know that they're town then they can assume I'm scum, so the answer to their question of "why did it take you so long to out?" is that I'm scum and it seemed like a good time to make a push on them. It's a totally pointless question and completely unlikely Bugs would be town and not vote me, or say it's untrue, or really do anything to stop it.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.

I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.

I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

Do you not see how suspicious this looks?

It's only TMI if bugs is Town. And I don't know if bugs is Town. But you would have to know bugs is Town to say that it's TMI.

I didn't react to the guilties because neither one was surprising. They didn't really change anything. Prior to the guilties my four picks for Mafia were Mom, bugs, Trendall, and Gamma. After the guilties it was the same four. Now maybe add you in because you're acting strange as hell and I don't see this kind of ridiculous logic and tunneling coming from someone who really wants to solve the game.

It's probably Town and you're just confused or emotional or something, but if you're Town at this point I think your play is awful and you should take a step back and rethink.

Okay Lunar I'm open to you being town but these first and last sentences are wrong and I want to see if you are able to think on your feet here.

Why do you think I did the reaction test, why do you think I determined that Bugs was more likely to be scum, and from there that you're more likely to be scum than either Gamma or Trendall?

[Frogsterking]

#1

I can't TMI bugs' alignment for 2 reasons:
1) It's unclear whether bugs is Town or not.
2) I don't know bugs' alignment.
You therefore can't say I'm TMI'ing bugs being Town without knowing bugs' alignment yourself.

#2

The last bit is my subjective evaluation of your play. It can't be wrong, as there is no right answer per se.

#1

This is hilarious and I will get back to this in a moment.

#2

Yes.. now the same way you're asking me to take a step back and re evaluate my position on the game, which I'm doing by asking you this very question, I want to see if you're willing/capable of imagining what might have been going through my mind when I made that play, and why I drew the conclusions I did. It's called cognitive empathy. You can just describe it the same way you described the whole TMI thing:

1) boom
2) boom
3) bing

[Frogsterking]

Shoot I guess you left to take a shower or something. I was trying to see if I could get you to keep town slipping further. I think this might have been a town slip:

Frogster that case on me is garbage. I didn't try to pocket Trendall or leave open the option of pushing Trendall. I scumread Trendall the whole time, which is a pretty bad way to pocket someone. I was just trying to be nice after someone else decided to be a bit rude. Just yesterday you acknowledged that you went too far and that I was fair in my criticism of you, but today you come and try to spin it as me discrediting you. What happened there? And then part of your case is that I ignored the guilties. I was already voting there, so why is it a bad thing that I kept trying to solve the game outside the guilties? Especially when one of them turned out to be fake.

I agree that I made a huge mistake, and I don't think your immediate follow up where you were directly addressing Trendall was an attempt to pocket, I think those things were genuine in contrast to what you said immediately after. I was trying to just quote the relevant parts to my case but they kind of blur together and I messed it up a little bit.

I think between you and Trendall at this point you are less likely to be town than Trendall. I don't think you can get credit for ignoring a fake guilty you had no reason to believe is fake at the time, that sounds more like TMI, and the way you continued pushing your case looks more to me like you were not really surprised that Momrangal is scum, even though you hadn't suspected her before, and she is pushing one of your same targets, Gamma, and it doesn't look like that gave you much pause either.

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

Do you not see how suspicious this looks?

It's only TMI if bugs is Town. And I don't know if bugs is Town. But you would have to know bugs is Town to say that it's TMI. I didn't react to the guilties because neither one was surprising. They didn't really change anything. Prior to the guilties my four picks for Mafia were Mom, bugs, Trendall, and Gamma. After the guilties it was the same four. Now maybe add you in because you're acting strange as hell and I don't see this kind of ridiculous logic and tunneling coming from someone who really wants to solve the game. It's probably Town and you're just confused or emotional or something, but if you're Town at this point I think your play is awful and you should take a step back and rethink.

I think it was a town slip because you couldn't understand why I called your response to the guilties TMI..

The point I was making was that you were TMI because you already knew Bugs and Mom were SCUM because YOU were scum, so you had no REACTION to the guilties and assumed they were TRUE, and continued fighting to stay alive the exact SAME way you had before, because you were last one to be confirmed, which you already expected as a possibility.

I wasn't saying that you were fighting to stay alive the exact SAME way because you had TMI and knew Bugs is TOWN and you were just IGNORING the fact that you knew I was fake claiming. In that scenario it would less sense for you to continue on the way you did.

The fact you seemed to genuinely not understand this point at all and argue against it with me in real time makes me believe that you just TOWN slipped and are town.

[Frogsterking]

Thank you Gamma. I think the point about the reaction is more solid along with Luca's case, where there are reasons to believe Bugs is scum anyway, and the fact they were already on the ropes made them more likely to give up when I outted the guilty.

Do you agree with the point I just made about Lunar town slipping as well Gamma?

[Frogsterking]

Reads list:

Town:

Town Block, Luca, LunarMartian

Null:

Trendall, OutWorldER

Scum:

Momrangal, Bugspray

[Frogsterking]

I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.

Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.

Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests

This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.

[Frogsterking]

@Trendall

I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.

Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.

Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests

This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.

I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.

Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.

Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests

This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.

I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all.

Also the point of that er...wasn't to show off that I've played lots of games, I couldn't care less, that was just necessary in order for me to explain why my perspective is as it is and therefore why I could never come around to your argument here no matter what you say.

Now you're doubling back and saying that you don't have that much experience with reaction tests

This doesn't remotely resemble anything I've said. Sorry, this is a waste of my time.

[Frogsterking]

Trendall have you or have you not seen thousands of reaction tests before, and how many times did an innocent player respond to a guilty with "why did it take you so long to out?"

We have both claimed to play thousands of games on a website where reaction testing is common, and I've seen guilty players respond that way a handful of times, and never an inno, and yet you're claiming it happens all the time?

And then when I press further you say I'm wasting your time and you never said this stuff? I just quoted you saying it.

Are you covering for Bugs here to avoid autoloss because you can't stop all of the investigations tonight?

[Frogsterking]

I believe that the traffic analyst can see whether or not someone is in a hood.

I have a new theory by the way, I think Lunar Martian might be a traitor and Momrangel's Informed ability was that she was aware of their identity. I found some comments between Momrangel and Bugs that looked like they were trying to indicate to Lunar their alignment.

[Frogsterking]

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them

besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),

I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.

With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.

Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hard

honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much

I’m working on my notes rn

btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?

You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.

If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.

http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/

This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I see you replaced into the Trendall slot. I was null reading that slot along with OutWorldER at the conclusion of D2. That changes things a little. I most definitely would like to hear some of your notes or scum case on Luca now.

[Frogsterking]

You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.

[Frogsterking]

I thought about the hood thing and I thought it could be a mix-up on the tradition. I dont that necessarily invalidates the idea.

If traitor is usually informed of their scum team though then my theory probably doesn't hold up. Is that always the case?

I might post what I found anyway in case a discussion needs sparking.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: ejjinami

This is a great silent vote and I was tempted to do the same.

[Frogsterking]

Ejji said some wack shit in the hood

Ejji said some wack shit outside the hood too. Would you rather collaborate with Ejji to see where it's going or spill the beans on what they said? I don't mind either way because I'll be following up later.

VOTE: Bugs

This is an easy vote for me because if my theory about Lunar is true then the game will end after a Bugs execution. If the game does not end then I will know my theory is incorrect. Later, I will post the interactions I found which lead me to believe Mom and Bugs were trying to signal to Lunar their alignment.

you know, maybe flip bugs first before scum-reading anyone based on interactions with them

besides them possibly wanting to defend(?) a traitor (if one exists),

I don’t think it should be possible to identify any tells in the game thread
Most of the action should happen in the scum chat which I doubt you have access to

and fun fact, I’m 90% confident that lunar is town xD
Idk how to read anyone as a traitor cuz I have close to no experience with that role but in general, their posts, way of progressing the game + emotions close to the lynch felt really darn sincere

This is exactly why I'm voting Bugs, and this is exactly what I found. By default traitor and scum do not know each other, and Momrangel's Informed made me think that she knew the identity of a traitor (provided one exists) but the traitor did not know the identity of their scum mates. I combed through D1 looking for moments where Momrangel could be signaling to her traitor and I think I found something. I found even more tells that looked like a scum!Bugs also trying to signal to Lunar. Of course there's a chance it's all in my imagination, that's why I'm curious to get other's input. I really don't have any other leads because I'm townreading most slots so if my new theory is incorrect then the scum are playing very well and/or I got pocketed and/or completely overlooked something.

With this idea it explains why Lunar seems so sincere at some moments, because they're actually unsure of their partners so they are not playing with TMI.

Imagine you queued up for this game and then found out you were the traitor, a role you were completely unfamiliar with, then look at Lunar's D1 again.

By hood I mean capable of making communication outside the ingame thread*

I'd like to hear your theory because I'm townreading Luca pretty hard.

I know... and you were scum-reading my slot pretty darn hard

honestly, I was expecting you to just vote me and ignore my scum-read just because your previous read lmao...... but oh well
I might have demonized you a bit too much

I’m working on my notes rn

btw, do you want me to fill the OCEAN test as well?

You replaced into NPOMs slot? I haven't sr NPOM since 3/4 into D1. I guess it was unclear since I lumped him in with the Town Block in my reads list.

If you don't mind then it would be nice, along with the other questions.

http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/

This is the best free version I've found so far. There's a "short" version and a long version, whichever you want to put the time into, they're both pretty long.

eh, maybe I should wait a bit to have you read my stuff without being biased but nope... I replaced Trendall
the slot you hated and the one who hated(?) you

I admit that my town-read on lunar doesn’t include the possibility of a traitor. Pretty much all of it is based on his solving looking really damn genuine + him choosing not to focus on getting town-read despite being perfectly able to do that... but as traitor half of that will have to be thrown away
(I’m working on making that one readable rn)

but regardless of all of that, he’s definitely not someone I’d want to lynch anytime soon. This theory can only be correct if bug is scum and that can only happen IF I’m wrong on luca

and boy oh boy, Luca was acting as the textbook wallposter scum since the beginning of D1... Normal on the outside, seemingly cares a lot, writes long “objectively townie” reads but is completely dead emotionally and apathetic when it really comes to lynch people near EoD.
If I’m wrong, sorry.. but JEEEZ, there were SO many scummy coincidences

Can you elaborate? The word you used to describe my tone earlier, "agitated", is extremely accurate, and you're making me agitated now.

[Frogsterking]

I'm writing up my original theory now, from before I knew traitors were informed of their scum team. Maybe someone else will find it useful for something.

I think I got mixed up with another completed Normal I just read through on the site which contained a traitor. What happened in that game was that it was the SCUM TEAM that were unsure of the traitor, not the other way around. I'm not sure yet what this is doing to my theory but again it probably doesn't hold up but maybe it will be helpful for something. In this case I'm expecting Momrangal may have been "Informed" of the identity of the PR in the hood which would explain the N1 kill hitting the bodyguard who was not the intended target.

Ejji if I'm hearing you right then in your world the scum team is most likely Luca + OutWorldER.

[Frogsterking]

Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

No

[Frogsterking]

Alright here was my overnight theory:

The list also scores high in neurotics which means

town will see red hearings where they don't exist and scum will be hyper aware of the game state, and what they are putting out.

I do think that frogster decided to do this thing before he drew his role, but the way he's moving forward with the play is pushing the game in a good direction

In a similar vein, NPOM also pushes the game in a positive direction and the only real concern I have there is his desire to be apart of a townbloc prematurely.

I'm also town reading Grendel for his stance on townblocking this early

I think Lunar Martian noticed something was off about NoPowerOverMe's post because they're super-conscious of being partners because it's new. Similar to my opinion of NoPowerOverMe's evasiveness and lack of clarity I find Lunar's description here about what he was thinking to be evasive in a way that also has a lot of potential to be AI.

You really think they, as they as scum would do this? It makes no sense to soft bus a partner this early on when they could be called on it, and forced to get into a harder stance against their partner. I think that's indicative of t/t or if they are scum, they are early on looking for ways to push what seems to be an easy target early on because of how disagreeable NPOM Is

I'm also moee than certain that NPOMS disagreeableness is NAI

I interpreted this as "@town don't look for red herrings they're in your imagination @traitor read my messages I'm aware of what I'm writing."

I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.

VOTE: Trendall

This bugs me

The first thing that struck me. There's 0 follow up to this comment.

At first I thought it might be a message to Lunar, who in this theory is the traitor, to join the push on Bugs today. I looked to see if there was an out-of-context vote on Bugs later and there was:

I don't mind voting bugspray but I don't think it's the best elimination. They could be maf tho.

Grendel you're right in that I'd prefer not to compromise, but I will. The quoted post makes me particularly fine with voting for bugspray. Still prefer ER or Trendall though.

VOTE: bugspray

That should be 5 votes, or E-2.

Weird. Then I gave it a second thought and started wondering if it was a different message to Lunar, intended to be read as

THIS (your post, or you), BUGS, AND ME.

Then I keep going and see Lunar scum casing Trendall on D2, as though Lunar had given the message a second thought as well and come to a similar conclusion.

VOTE: Lunar,

Weird vote,

______________

I'm NOT going to get into any of the associative tells between Bugs and Lunar that don't directly apply to my theory. The whole voting and unvoting thing and suddenly FoSing each other is worth looking into separately IMO.

im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that)

and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

I thought this was Bug's first attempt to soft to Lunar they're on the same team, following up Mom's soft.

Frog that's a pretty strange leading question. What are you trying to get out of it?

Bugs is defending Lunar here in response to a question I lobbed at Lunar, indicating Lunar is already on Bugs radar.

sounds good VOTE: lunar martian
that's l-1

..Then Bugs votes Lunar. I thought it could be a late bus attempt as Luca pointed out or a "well if the traitor is just going to vote me better they go than I".

calling my previous mention of lunar in 462 a strong tr is real reachy. a lot of the time i just have difficulty reading slots and pretend they don't exist and up until recently for me that was lunar

A LOT of defensiveness around this point. That makes me suspect the point is incorrect in concept but hits close enough to home to motivate Bugs to be defensive about it compared to other accusations. Bugs has clearly been aware of the presence of Lunar in this game for some time now (since at least 462 and defending them in 547 which I quoted above) so I believe Bugs is covering something up in this post.

Bugs also seems to be reacting heavily to this traitor point currently (D3) as well.

If needed I can claim, but I prefer not to obviously. I'm not really willing to claim when half the people voting me haven't stated any reasons though. There's time, why don't the people voting me try to talk to me a little?

hey lunar what's your role?

I read this as Bugs trying to get the traitor to stop voting them by reminding them they're on the same team, or in my original theory to reread a little bit and check for the softs.

lunar martian are you spiteful?

I read this the same as above.

[Frogsterking]

The fact that Bugs is neither outting what Ejji said in the hood nor voting someone else is incongruent, unless Ejji's wack-shit was a plan that involves Bugs pushing her in-thread.

It suggests to me that Bugs is neither collaborating with Ejji nor I but instead collaborating with some unknown third party I'm unaware of.

[Frogsterking]

Now that I know traitors are informed of the scum team, Lunar's townslip on D2 holds IMO.

[Frogsterking]

eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

1442 is a pocket attempt on Lunar fypov then?

I guess I'm not understanding your world right now. You think that ejji is trying to bus Luca to win the endgame?

[Frogsterking]

You know how they say seeing cthulu makes you insane? That's basically what happened to me in the hood last night

LMAO THIS IS MAKING MY DAY RIGHT NOW!

eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

...........
you know
I didn’t think it was possible to make me doubt my scum-read on luca that easily
dude, you’re literally being 2-dimensional

My “PLAN” was literally just asking gamma to claim first

oh noooooooo, that’s soooo scummy

I have no idea what you're talking about

@Gamma

@Galron

Can we get some clarity here? Can you both confirm Bugspray is initiating the most futile counter claim I've ever seen so we can execute them?

eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

...........
you know
I didn’t think it was possible to make me doubt my scum-read on luca that easily
dude, you’re literally being 2-dimensional

My “PLAN” was literally just asking gamma to claim first

oh noooooooo, that’s soooo scummy

LOL, THINK

and maybe actually READ my posts because if you think about it, besides getting the benefit of knowing gamma’s role, I’d get NOTHING out of this as scum

I’d get nothing + I’d have to risk claiming a stupid role while obviously not having role-checked you before
sorry for getting annoyed but just.... lol?

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

eji's shit was so incomprehensibly wack and i abrely understand it myself but i don't think town ever says it

1442 is a pocket attempt on Lunar fypov then?

I guess I'm not understanding your world right now. You think that ejji is trying to bus Luca to win the endgame?

I’m pretty sure bug was talking about my posts in the hood

I’m not sure if they even read my wall lmao

Your avatar or the shit you talked about my PoE is not even remotely helping your case right now.

Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

is this a request or a statement of your thinking?

It's more a warning that there's pretty likely to be one, so be careful claiming stuff in there.

Please don't talk in the hood unless there's like PR-related information you want to conceal or some kind of play you need to make that requires not informing the thread. Otherwise please discuss stuff here because the game's going to get really confusing if you two are forming reads on each other via posts we can't observe.

Good points here.

[Frogsterking]

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma. Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

If the neighborhood is all-town, then what we're witnessing is a TvT that we can't resolve because we can't even understand the situation.

Strongly disagree. That totally negates this potentially really useful tool for sharing information privately and using another avenue to coordinate or sort people. Is joqiza Mafia indicating that the hood is all-Town? Maybe.

You're free to disagree, but my philosophy is simply that you should share your thoughts in thread. I can't evaluate a progression that I can't see. And immediately suggesting I have TMI seems reactive.

I hope they're fighting in the hood right now lmao

[Frogsterking]

Maybe I'm just jaded, but I don't really have good experiences with hoods. I've seen them used by mafia to pocket towns, and when they're pure I've seen them devolve into TvT fights that make the game unpleasant and difficult to solve because no one's really sure what's going on. I haven't read the game closely enough to have an opinion as to what the composition of the hood is rn, but I can tell immediately I don't like this situation where people are accusing one another of stuff I can't see and I'm asked to pick one side or another.

Without revealing any sensitive PR or mech information, @ejjnami, can you explain what bugspray is talking about in 1450?

If the neighborhood is all-town, then what we're witnessing is a TvT that we can't resolve because we can't even understand the situation.

I think Bugs is just trying to dig their way out of PoE because if Ejji were really wack IMO Gamma would have acknowledged it already. I mean I'm sure Ejji is really wack based on what I've seen so far but I think if they were really wack in the scummy way Bugs is portraying we will be hearing about it from Galreon and/or Gamma. No matter which way it falls we will hear from at least two town perspectives if not three and I think this is probably the worst counter claim I've ever seen.

Your avatar or the shit you talked about my PoE is not even remotely helping your case right now.

I’d appreciate it if you didn’t attack me directly.

If my avatar triggers you, please tell me that privately and I’ll change it.
If you disagree with my reads, please comment on those I elaborated on.

If I ever insulted you, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean it. I will try to be nicer in the future
Please do the same. Let’s not make this game toxic

Lmao my implication was that you have one of the weirdest avatars I've ever seen and you barreled in here a few hours ago saying my reads were shit and are already second-guessing yourself. You seem like a lunatic and I think you know this and are using your persona to troll others for sorting. I think Bugs is correctly assessing that the majority of the players will perceive you this way and can sense their time is almost up so they've got a hail Mary push started against you now.

[Frogsterking]

I don’t feel like there’s a serious counterclaim anywhere but I can’t be certain of that with the role/setup knowledge I have

They're not even counter claiming roles they're counter claiming STORIES. That are easily checkable by both you and Galreon.

[Frogsterking]

Your avatar or the shit you talked about my PoE is not even remotely helping your case right now.

I’d appreciate it if you didn’t attack me directly.

If my avatar triggers you, please tell me that privately and I’ll change it.
If you disagree with my reads, please comment on those I elaborated on.

If I ever insulted you, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean it. I will try to be nicer in the future
Please do the same. Let’s not make this game toxic

By the way if I was wrong and you aren't creating this persona intentionally/semi-trolling I'm sorry I called you a lunatic and said your avatar is weird, in this context I'm definitely referring to your gameplay here and not trying to attack you directly.

[Frogsterking]

Your avatar or the shit you talked about my PoE is not even remotely helping your case right now.

I’d appreciate it if you didn’t attack me directly.

If my avatar triggers you, please tell me that privately and I’ll change it.
If you disagree with my reads, please comment on those I elaborated on.

If I ever insulted you, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean it. I will try to be nicer in the future
Please do the same. Let’s not make this game toxic

By the way if I was wrong and you aren't creating this persona intentionally/semi-trolling I'm sorry I called you a lunatic and said your avatar is weird, in this context I'm definitely referring to your gameplay here and not trying to attack you directly.

I really think the whole situation is funny and not in a way that you or anyone else is the butt of a joke.

[Frogsterking]

Did you take this one? http://www.personal.psu.edu/~j5j/IPIP/

[Frogsterking]

To be honest you guys I'm not really sure about the last one.

[Frogsterking]

Happy birthday Gamma!

[Frogsterking]

To be honest you guys I'm not really sure about the last one.

?
what last one? you mean my post about bugs/luca?

P.edit:
OK, it’s WAY too late.... vote me if I continue posting or sth
gn

p.p.Edit:
Happy bday!!! xD

I'm not sure who the third is outside of Mom/Bugs/x now that I'm fairly convinced your slot and Lunar are town.

[Frogsterking]

To be honest you guys I'm not really sure about the last one.

?
what last one? you mean my post about bugs/luca?

P.edit:
OK, it’s WAY too late.... vote me if I continue posting or sth
gn

p.p.Edit:
Happy bday!!! xD

I'm not sure who the third is outside of Mom/Bugs/x now that I'm fairly convinced your slot and Lunar are town.

And when I say I'm not sure I mean I REALLY, am not sure. The way Bugs is playing makes me think it might not be someone with a reasonable chance to win. I mean who could be bussing Bugs right now? OutWorldER?

I feel like a player with the ability to glide along like this and drop town tell bombs when needed would not be cooperating with Bugs on this line of play. I don't see how this is furthering the win condition for the scum team. I don't understand what they're doing.

[Frogsterking]

Ejji are you actually scum? Is this some theater crap?

[Frogsterking]

Nice work.

So I guess your whole ‘Luca, Trendall, Momrangal’ thing was just a cover for the fact you wanted associative info from Momrangal, Grendel?

I haven’t done any analysis yet so maybe I’ve missed something, but I think Galron could still be scum?

It seems to me that Galron has gone out of his way to defend Bugs/deflect attention away from them on a few occasions.

You skipped providing any notes on both Galron and Luca.

I’ll skip my read on galron completely because I don’t think it’s necessary

and I’m still working on the rest. I have a list of notes I made during the night but they’re not anything people could read
They’re mainly made out of my brain shortcuts and 1-word/1-sentence comments

I’ll eventually post all of them but it’ll take some time

I guess Mom/Bugs/Galron is the most logical solve. There is prob a for real traitor and it's Bugs or else the game is over. Galreon is going to pop in here soon to vouch for Bug's story unless he thinks he can buss without getting into auto loss.

This solve means that Bug's plan was actually ok here, the timing just didn't work out because Bug's needed Galreon to back their side of Ejji up strong from the get go to get the wagon going without making it super obvious they were 2gether. Bugs is more willing to lie down and die here because Bugs really needed Galreon here to work some magic and Galreon didn't show up and it was a long shot anyway.

Mom jumping on the Gamma execution makes sense as that would enable them to night kill Trendall and get the hood with the traitor to themselves.

Setup seems really townsided.

I'm going to reread D1 with this in mind to see if anything stands out.

@Gamma

2 questions, Is there anything in the hood that makes it look like Galreon and Bugs are scum and communicating with each other, and is it normally the traitor that starts out in the hood or gets added to it?

@Ejji

Can you see anything in the hood that might look like Galreon and Bugs are scum and communicating with each other?

[Frogsterking]

I think the timing of the mod's votecount is a sign I finally posted the correct solve. I think the mod wants the game to be over.

[Frogsterking]

I think Galreon just got kind of skipped over all game because everyone assumed they were a PR.

[Frogsterking]

Eh that seems simplistic
Btw I just looked over a Trendall scumgame and it looks a bit like this but I feel like his ratio of long:short posts trended towards the longer side in his scumgame compared to here
I’m not sure if that means nothing, a lot, or something in between, but I think reviewing his survey answers and how he responded when I asked him about this stuff earlier might figure that out

I think it could mean something, that study from Standford I posted earlier found that scum were more likely to replace out, if I remember correctly they used second-person pronouns like "you" less, and the most interesting to me was they had a slightly lower post count but had slightly longer sentences. I think Trendall might be town here but I think the fact that you focused in on the long:short ratio is a sign there's something to that as a tell.

Those results were also just all the things averaged together. I think there can be different patterns of behavioral changes to look for. I think Luca posts slightly more as scum instead of decreasing. I suspect if he were scum he would have said more today.

[Frogsterking]

Heres my single allowed "bah" post lol.

I had fun, but i am sad i died. This was a cool roster. I hope to catch most of ya'll in future games. GLHF

Aaayyyy

[Frogsterking]

I thought about the game in my sleep last night and the win condition from the scum team makes more sense to me now.

Bugs has given away very little associative info, apart from when they turned on Lunar, which struck me as fake bussing.

This seemed a weird interaction, though:

Trendall can you make posts that are easier to parse? I'm getting the vibe of someone who is heading for the chopping block from you and the amount of pressure on your slot is like really low

Because I didn’t get this sense at all at the time of this post. Perhaps scum who is overly aware of their partner’s scummy behavior?

I think Bugs has adapted to their meta and expected to be killed at some point, so their strategy was setting up other easy execution slots with horrible associative tells, not necessarily survival. So the play from Bugs D2 - D3 makes sense here as their main goal was simply to set up LM and Trendall for a mis-execution so Galreon can win in the end game.

I’m probably gonna take most of today off from playing here

Happy birthday!

[Frogsterking]

okay think for a little bit town has so much power and then they get an informed and assuming I'm also scum a backup neigbor? That's not a lot compared to what town seems to have

I think ur backup neighbor traitor and Galron is scum pr and town has three prs, two investigatives one of which is unreliable, and one bodyguard.

[Frogsterking]

Reji should prob just out their report

[Frogsterking]

If Galron isn't the third then I don't know

[Frogsterking]

@Frog I've seen you talking about mafia traitor on these last few pages a lot. Are you deducing that there's a traitor just from setup spec or is there some other justification for that theory that I missed? I wouldn't really expect there to be a mafia traitor in any typical setup, since scum day-chat and associatives are such a big part of the game.

It could just be rumor mill and I'm sending myself on a goose chase. I think the speculation about a traitor started as soon as Bugs outed their role and increased once there were two backup neighbors sent to the hood.

[Frogsterking]

I thought 716 was also bizarre and it was part of what prompted me to make the Lunar-is-traitor case. In 1354 it looks like Momrangel is unsure of Grendel's role and is possibly fishing and/or taking a stab in the dark as to the nature of his guilty. This means that she was informed of something else which I thought could be the identity of a traitor (but I now think is the identity of a PR besides Grendel.) I think this means that the scum feel the 2nd PR is more pocketed than Grendel was, which puts Bugs in a bad light (and possibly the Trendall slot if the 2nd pr is Galron.)

I felt like Momrangel outed a visit to OutWorldER because there was less of a chance OutWorldER would be the target of a watcher.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not really having any problems with your process joqiza, in fact I think it might be helpful because it seems there is at least one scum that worked their way out of the PoE. For some reason I got more out of the disorganized notes rather than the organized ones but I liked that you had both.

1) It seems to me that you're really focused on sorting between Luca and Bugs in light of the Momrangel flip, is there any chance you can look at the rest of the slots right now before and after the Momrangel flip? That might even help you sort between Luca and Bugs.

2) I'm curious about your opinion on the D1 wagon, do you think it was an on-wagon or off-wagon day? I'm going to go back over my notes on VCA. I don't consider myself as efficacious with VCA but I've seen it used to solve games and I want to be able to do the same.

[Frogsterking]

To add even more fuel to the bugspray fire I found this section of D1 interesting, Momrangal is clearly trying to create a counterwagon for Bugspray, and Trendall "playfully" joins in with her idea, which could have just been an excuse to get his vote off of Bugspray.

Votecount 1.11

bugspray(4)

~ Trendall(27), Gamma Emerald(60), NoPowerOverMe(76), Luca Blight(39)

NoPowerOverMe(3)

~ Amélie(51), OutWorldER(13), bugspray(34)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ AGamblingPig(5), Frogsterking(30), Galron(22)

Trendall(2)

~ Grendel(41), Momrangal(28)

OutWorldER(1)

~ Lunar Martian(9)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 10 out of 19035

shout out to Datisi for having a working imgur

I could see any of bugs/LM/OWER being scum atm

Come do OWER with me then?

I'm still with him and trendall being my top two

This NPOM wagon is awful.

I agree with this, but I'm curious to why you think trendall isn't getting lynched. There are multiple people who have expressed that slot being likely scum and next to OWER.

There are also multiple slots expressing concern over OWER, but instead the consensus seems to be nerfing the loudest voice in the game. I'm not joining the NPOM wagon, and I could drop a vote on either but I would much rather drop scum over town.

Gamma, Frog, Grendel, amelie all expressed concerns over Trendall. Should they all move their vote there, he'll be at L-2

Gamma, NPOM, bug, Grendel, Luca I recall all had things to say about OWER. All votes being moved there puts him at L-1

So...?

Ok, I was just making sure that the claim was bs like I thought it was.

The only people that have an issue with it are those outside the block.

Who are the five people in it?

Me
Galron
Grendal
Frog
Gamma

Frog is still pushing you as scum here, but I do agree. The pushes against you are not only crappy as fuck but they are targeted at the largest voice within the block and someone who, if left alive could win us the game

UNVOTE:
VOTE: OutWorldER

Come do OWER with me then?

I'm happy to do that lol

VOTE: OWER

well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this

Does this look like traditional scum theater to anyone or no? I believe both Momrangal and Trendall enjoy theater or have some kind of performance art background.

Trendall sits on this OutWorldER wagon and doesn't contribute anything for the rest of D1.

Their replace-out could have been done in spite to improve the standing of the slot in response to my game solve on D2.

[Frogsterking]

I’m back. I was busy wasting my time

Spoiler:

xD

@Ejji

Can you see anything in the hood that might look like Galreon and Bugs are scum and communicating with each other?

Just based on the interactions in the chat, I’m decently confident that Galeron should be town :/
more so than any of bugs/luca
but eh.
I don’t think so? Galeron talked to my slot several times more than to bugs

and there are some posts that imply that Amelia might have targeted Galeron before death. (and she died as a bodyguard)
if everyone thought gal was a PR, there’s a decent chance that they could have gotten attacked :/

is traitor guaranteed to be in the setup or sth? trying to find scum based on interactions with a role that might not even exist doesn’t seem like the most effective strategy

——

anyway, I started looking through bug’s ISO in other games in my free time but haven’t gotten much out of it yet. @luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?

——

Reji should prob just out their report

I still have a lab report to finish today but I know. I’ll start working on it asap. Same with verifying bug’s meta.... (this might be actually more accurate than whatever read I could have)

If Galron is town then you're my FoS provided Bugs flips scum.

[Frogsterking]

Actually, maybe the last scum has to be outside of the neighborhood, because otherwise it makes little sense to eliminate Grendel instead of the target of the original night kill, which I'm guessing Momrangal was informed of their role.

Grendel's ability won't work on anyone outside of the neighborhood so if the whole scum team was left inside, it makes more sense to kill the other pr. The only situation I see this not being the case is if the last one was Trendall and they eliminated Grendel just out of fear of his FoS.

[Frogsterking]

what's the case on Galron? I haven't exactly understood that yet.

I think Bugspray/Trendall slot is most likely at this point, Bugs shitpush on eiji today feels like bad distancing while eiji tries to save their last scumbuddy/doomed slot.

I think was just intimidated off the read because a few players are town reading the Trendall slot now.

I don't understand why they would kill Grendel instead of the pr in the hood unless it's because they had the pr in the hood pocketed.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Luca Blight

I might have joined at a very wrong time. VLA for 1 days
my yesterday’s report wasn’t that easy to write as I thought it would
aaand I have a test tomorrow I forgot about
there’s no need to give me an official VLA status because it’ll be over way too quickly but I’ll jsut have to take care of that first. I’ll be completely free after that
jsut cut me a bit more slack

@luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?

I really don't feel like talking any more about my meta read on Bugs. I feel as though there is enough reason to believe they are scum from their play in this game alone. If you're wondering about the validity of my claim that I have had success reading them as both alignments, the fact Bugs themselves hasn't questioned or refuted this should be evidence enough that I'm not making it up.

You’re acting as if you don’t want me to look it up.
I’m well aware that you’re good with words, don’t beat around the bush.
I asked for links to the games you were talking about, not a read extension. As I said before, I already started looking though bug’s meta but didn’t see a difference as big as you were talking about. That’s EXACTLY why I asked.

From what I’ve seen till now, their town and scum meta are rather close. They were more creative and way more open in games as both alignments. The only reliable(???) difference I noticed till now is that they tend to react with “jeez”, “wtf” type of stuff to scum-reads and anything that starts them as scum a bit more.
But there is a chance that I’m just looking through the wrong games

Saying that “he’s so scummy so you don’t need links” honestly seems like bullshit. If you don’t give me links I’ll just look for them myself.
that’s all I have to say


I haven’t read the entire thread btw. Just found this post because I was interested in it
I’ll catch up tomorrow,
sorry for that again

Galron and I have been on the same page about a whole lot of stuff and Galron has made a number of posts I feel Mafia never makes. I can go dig up some posts if you really want, joqiza.

Luca's recent posting has me increasingly convinced that Luca is Mafia.

The Luca + OutWorldER/Gamma theory makes more sense regarding the night kill because Grendel can guilty them all with his investigative role, whereas for a Bugs + Ejji team the night kill is a little questionable because they're safe from Grendel's investigation if I'm understanding the traffic analyst correctly. Since the Mafia Informed flip, the N1 kill, and Mom's role fishing of Grendel imply scum were not informed of Grendel's role from the start, it's not out of line to speculate that Grendel's ability was more threatening to the scum team than whatever they knew already, which would imply there is at least one scum out of the neighborhood, throwing dirt on the Bugs/Trendall theory.

Something else to point out regarding night kill analysis is that even if this interpretation of events is wrong and Amelie was directly targeted N1, that also points more so toward Luca and especially Gamma. Momrangel's play kind of resembles open wolfing, she was just throwing dirt at as many slots as possible pretty much, the kind of slot that's often a good bus target for the scum team later, so maybe Amelie's townread on her was not viewed as critical as Amelie's potential to be a liability. It's also possible Momrangel's Informed ability was simply the knowledge that Amelie was a bodyguard, so she was directly targeted for that reason as well to clear the path for the night kills later.

[Frogsterking]

Fuck, the unvote in 1571 was a Freudian slip, UNVOTE: Bugspray.

[Frogsterking]

We don't have to commit to executing Bugspray today, there are multiple townie slots that are reconsidering this choice. I think we really need to hear from Galron's perspective.

[Frogsterking]

Okay guys I have a new solve I think this one is finally right! I was typing up evidence I found during VCA and then an idea popped into my head, and now I'm finding even more evidence and it's actually here in the game and not in my imagination! (at least some of it.) The idea is partly based on a game that made me really mad yesterday I played on EM where I called the scum team 2/2 a few minutes into D1, and then they talked me into believing they were town and the town tunneled each other and we lost.

[Frogsterking]

Their replace-out could have been done in spite to improve the standing of the slot in response to my game solve on D2.

If you legitimately think this btw you should prob report Trendall, that's breaking the rules iirc

Thank you for mentioning this to me, I didn't know it was against the rules and I was seriously considering it as a possibility.

I have a new solve now which I think makes a lot more sense than any of my previous ones, I'm writing up the case for it now.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar you're so done now.

[Frogsterking]

Interesting that you sound more like your D1 persona now that you've gotten Luca to townread you.

I wasn't joking when I said you were done. This isn't a tunnel I'm making for you, this is a coffin.

[Frogsterking]

This case is huge and piggy backs off things that both Gamma and Luca have said, which I tried to include in their entirety. The timeline is jumping around a bit so I'm trying to keep the individual posts within each section in chronological order and label the sections by day and reason for inclusion.

The solve dun dun dun..

Spoiler:

Mom/Bugs/Lunar

D2: Mom returns from V/la with Bugs at l-1 and votes Gamma instead

Votecount 2.6

bugspray(5)

~ OutWorldER(9), Luca Blight(55), Frogsterking(64), Gamma Emerald(27), Trendall(46)

Trendall(2)

~ Lunar Martian(45), NoPowerOverMe(16)

Momrangal(1)

~ Grendel(17)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Momrangal(10)


Not Voting (2): bugspray(13), Galron(8)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-13 20:42:20)

FLAVOR

frame 20 out of 19035

Momrangel chooses to go on Gamma here upon return from V/La instead of hammering Bugs. This is self-explanatory and you can check for yourself, I'm just posting the vote count as evidence here.

D2: Momrangel uses my theory as a jumping-off point to implicate Gamma as scum but Lunar as town, which makes no sense given the theory was based off of an associative scum tell.

My theory which brought up the possibility of a mutual chainsaw between Gamma and Lunar:

Spoiler:

I'm going to try and show what might be a mutual chainsaw defense here (straight from the wiki).

@Grendel@Momrangal@NPOM

I am most curious to hear your perspectives on this theory, and

@Galron

I'm curious if this is what you were inferring behind the Trendall and Bugs town reads or if you have a completely different theory altogether.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?

Gamma defending LM here (and himself in proxy) by attacking my logic.

Lunar Martian seems like town to me.

Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.

I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really.

You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.

And there are fewer players (9 instead of 13 makes a huge difference), there are different players, it's an open setup, the roles are more basic, it took place at a different time in their life.....

who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Lol I won't waste my time then. Let's all get this then because there was a fair amount of support for eliminating Lunar yesterday, so we can just like, get it done now.

VOTE: Lunar Martian

It's just odd, since Trendall seemed very confident

I did two posts about you I think. One said

"Lunar Martian seems like town to me"

and the other said

"I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really"

. If you want to interpret that as somebody who is 'very confident' then there's not a lot I can do about that.

You reckon I 'went out of my way' by typing those two sentences?

Like wow I had a town read on somebody

These are all the relevant posts.

@Trendall

Do you stand by your earlier evaluation of the Gamma slot back from this point in D1:

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Okay. Would you like to say why?

Not particularly. Post #312 is the main reason but also just general vibes.

idk what's wrong with post 312 but w/e

Sry I'm trying to do like three things at once so haven't bothered to format this properly but check these two links for like, what I'm talking about here -

viewtopic.php?p=12230155#p12230155

viewtopic.php?p=12298023#p12298023

That's me in other games identifying some mafia people

Yeah sounds fair

The above quotes are Lunar Martian attacking Trendall, the only player to scum case Gamma, followed by Trendall's scum case. Lunar is perhaps attempting to use my own FoS on Trendall to hide behind both myself and Luca's reads on Trendall and Bugspray respectively.

I also had just came across Frogs case against Gamma, it needs over night marination but I can see sense in that stance.



In regards to trendall vs OWER, It would be a weird bussing position to take when I had clear suspicions on both slots.

At that point in time, the only reason I can think of for trendall scum jumping on after me is he either knew OWER to be scum with him and maybe clearing him on that bus

Or

To set up mislynches.

OWER wasnt getting off and there were other easier mislynches to be had. It's just overall weird

VOTE: gamma

I think here may be where I want to venture into

VOTE: gamma

I think here may be where I want to venture into the most .

I'm still wrapping my mind around the double chain saw, but I do think that, if Gamma is scum, then Bugs and Lunar are assuredly town. The more I think about it, the more I'm bothered by the fact that he was and is so non-chalant about there being two backup neighbors and dismissing the fact that one of them could be scum

The point of the double chain saw tell is that both players are scum. It's an associative tell. Momrangel is taking the tell I presented which implicates both Lunar and Gamma, but chooses to go in the direction against Gamma, and pretends that it somehow makes sense she is pushing Lunar as town.

Not only is she passing an easy opportunity to hammer Bugs here, she's

actively resisting

an easy opportunity to push Lunar, and distorting the information here in a way that is beneficial to Lunar. The information here is being distorted to the extent that the argument I was originally presenting no longer makes sense within the context of an associative scum tell between Lunar and Gamma. Still she is pushing it here in a serious way, before Grendel has outed his guilty.

D1: Momrangel puts some effort into creating a counter-wagon for Bugs..instead of putting effort into fueling the existing one on Lunar.

Votecount 1.11

bugspray(4)

~ Trendall(27), Gamma Emerald(60), NoPowerOverMe(76), Luca Blight(39)

NoPowerOverMe(3)

~ Amélie(51), OutWorldER(13), bugspray(34)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ AGamblingPig(5), Frogsterking(30), Galron(22)

Trendall(2)

~ Grendel(41), Momrangal(28)

OutWorldER(1)

~ Lunar Martian(9)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 10 out of 19035

shout out to Datisi for having a working imgur

I could see any of bugs/LM/OWER being scum atm

Come do OWER with me then?

I'm still with him and trendall being my top two

We have 6 days? Why are we compromising?

This NPOM wagon is awful.

Gamma, Frog, Grendel, amelie all expressed concerns over Trendall. Should they all move their vote there, he'll be at L-2

Gamma, NPOM, bug, Grendel, Luca I recall all had things to say about OWER. All votes being moved there puts him at L-1

So...?

VOTE: OWER

well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this

I agree with this, but I'm curious to why you think trendall isn't getting lynched. There are multiple people who have expressed that slot being likely scum and next to OWER.

There are also multiple slots expressing concern over OWER, but instead the consensus seems to be nerfing the loudest voice in the game. I'm not joining the NPOM wagon, and I could drop a vote on either but I would much rather drop scum over town.

Momrangel's motivation here in these chain posts to create a counter wagon to Bugs is pretty clear. I think everyone on the Bugs wagon can agree with this, right?

So answer me this:

@All

If Mom's motivation here is to create a counter wagon to Bugs, why the %&#* is she making a new one and not pushing the already-existing Lunar wagon which already has town on it?

D1: Luca's original case on Lunar

Spoiler: bugs on Lunar

im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that) and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

sounds good VOTE: lunar martian
that's l-1

That vote came out of nowhere, possibly a late bus attempt.

Lunar should claim in their next post.

have you seen lunar's iso?

calling my previous mention of lunar in 462 a strong tr is real reachy. a lot of the time i just have difficulty reading slots and pretend they don't exist and up until recently for me that was lunar

If needed I can claim, but I prefer not to obviously. I'm not really willing to claim when half the people voting me haven't stated any reasons though. There's time, why don't the people voting me try to talk to me a little?

hey lunar what's your role?

lunar martian are you spiteful?

Hey lunar nopom gave intent can you claim now or should he just hammer?

Bugs never mentioned Lunar at all until page 19, where they say pushing Lunar isn't controversial. This is pretty odd given Bugs was the leading wagon at this point, while Lunar was joint second wagon, so you'd think Town!Bugs would have some curiosity at least over this slot. Lunar had made some light defences of Bugs by this point: 399, 436, 460 which is a bit of a stronger defence.

Bugs then seems to offer another light defence of Lunar in 547, before cashing in at 555 after Gamma put Lunar to L-2. Bugs then goes really into it in their subsequent posts, egging on the wagon and seeming to taunt Lunar, which is really contrary to their previous stance where they were holding their cards close to their chest with regards to Lunar.

Lunar then comes back in and complains about people not talking to them etc, but doesn't address Bugs' vote or interact with them, and instead maintains the same stance they had previously - that there's no reason to SR Bugs. Lunar calls the people voting them and Bugs 'opportunistic', but doesn't address the fact that Bugs is voting Lunar themselves. During my interaction with Lunar I ask them to comment on my points against Bugs; Lunar says it's only based on meta which isn't enough for them. When I point out most of my points against Bugs are not meta related, Lunar moves the goalposts by saying 'I SR you so I don't care about your points'.

This is some really weird interaction, and to me most makes sense from a S/S perspective. Bugs held off voting Lunar as long as possible until it seemed Lunar was a goner (or at least one of Lunar/Bugs was) and then they went full bus mode. Lunar entered the thread full of complaints but very unwilling to give their reads and opinions, which had to be dragged out of them. Posts like 586 and 594 seem like Lunar just wants to keep associative information to a minimum by maintaining the same stances they had earlier. This is a common strategy that scum who are about to die use, so there's limited information for D2. Normally town here are much more open about their thoughts, normally willing to shout them from the rooftops, so I don't think this was Town behavior from Lunar here.

I'll look at Lunar's meta to see if it matches up with their play in this game.

I've just glanced through Lunar's one completed game, where they were VT, and their play is far superior to this game, despite it being their first game.

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=85174&user_select[]=35109

They actively scum-hunted and openly shared reasoning and reads. The only similarity I can see is that they were also dismissive of pushes against them. I have limited time but I'll try and dig up some examples and comparisons.

Spoiler: Lunar's meta

Also he's never getting eliminated is he so he doesn't even has to sacrifice himself at all necessarily.

I really dislike this push from trendall on the claimed doctor. The doctor claim will be tested at night, and trendall should know better as an SE.
VOTE: trendall

I see rock's posts as townie. I think it's a bit melodramatic for clidd to get so frustrated and claim, and for rock to say "just kill me"... I don't think either of them was the most voted person at the time they did that.

A doctor cannot target themselves, so that can't self-protect, I just looked this up on the wiki.

And clidd, the doctor would know that. Hence clidd is lying. The question is: why?

VOTE: clidd

Nah clidd's my final vote today.

That said, this attitude is awful and does actually make it hard to kill anyone. Can people get over themselves and try to find scum rather than get themselves killed because they feel bad that they made a mistake?

I will not be voting clidd or trendall today.

I'm pretty confident with a Lunar elimination.

And I'm pretty confident that you aren't all that smart.

I'm pretty confident that the following people are town:
me, trendall, clidd (you aren't half as smart as you think you are), ben dover (you are very overconfident and slip into confirmation bias very easily), Chumbo.
That leaves:
Lavar, Rockhopper, Lone, BM.

Out of those four, I'd pick BM and Lone to be the most likely scum. BM is being far too quiet. Didn't someone say BM normally posts a lot more?

VOTE: BM

My solve right now would be Lone and BM.

OK let me address it. This is a really dumb wagon. The case on me is pathetic, there's nothing for me to even defend. Ben you say my read on you changed a lot, but when you criticized me for that you even admitted that you had been scummy. There's one scum on my wagon and 4 dumb townies. Lone is almost certainly scum here.

What? When was that? I gotta reread.

Lone is not scum. Have you seen his recent posts?

Pedit: :thonk: what is your reason for BM again?

BM isn't posting after repeatedly promising to be active. When BM gets called out he shows up and posts just enough that everyone gives him a pass. Also Lone's "welp" post is super scummy. It's scum trying to look like a townie who feels bad. Just kill me, then tomorrow when the cop has no result and the doctor is dead and you continue to self destruct with terrible reads I'll be laughing in the graveyard. Ben you are way overconfident and it seems like your reads are quite bad. No one is re-evaluating. Look at Lone's justification for voting me (spoiler alert: there's no justification other than straight up naked opportunism because I'm a person that people don't townread and other people are willing to vote me). Even after being repeatedly prodded for reasoning why I'm scum Lone hasn't provided any.

The rest of you have really poor reasoning to think I'm scum, but at least there is some.

If you got voted to E-1 and people couldn't provide any reasoning but assumed that you were scum and were only looking for other scum based on their interactions with you you'd probably also get frustrated. You aren't engaging with me in good faith or making any effort to consider the possibility that you're wrong. If you can't engage in good faith with me, I have no reason to do so with you. It doesn't matter what I say, you've decided that I'm scum. So I'm just gonna say things that make me feel better about dying, which in this case means ridiculing you.

Um, we aren't assuming you are scum. There are reasons behind my accusation, you know. More than "Lunar is indecisive".

I'd get frustrated, but I'd definitely go and start pointing out the flaws behind the accusations, addressing each one, not:

Ben you are way overconfident and it seems like your reads are quite bad. No one is re-evaluating.
The rest of you have really poor reasoning to think I'm scum, but at least there is some.

[
It was the first time you mentioned it. Yesterday or the day before. You said you didn't like my read changing on you, but also admitted that you had made some very questionable posts.

And rather than assume me changing my mind is scummy you should ask me questions to try to uncover my true intentions. This is garbage play from you, tbh.

The only thing you fixed was adding in the possibility of "Scum would choose a read and stick to it".

I can't really engage with you in good faith because you are very sure that Lone is scum and so is BM, and the reasons you provided I just can't agree with. Maybe we can work something together, but the way you are rejecting the possibility that Lone is genuinely newbie town is not helping us get together in good faith.

I am thinking about the possibility where I am wrong, and it's likely there, but this is likely where we are going today and as Trendall said, don't overthink it. I'll reconsider everything D2 if I am wrong.

You aren't really re-evaluating. I'm not asking you to engage me in good faith on my scumreads. I'm asking you to engage in good faith on your scumread of me.

And clidd I think that the scum lie in: Lone, BM, Rock.
Eliminate me, you, Trendall, Chumbo, and ben as possibilities, and that's where you wind up. Lavar could be scum but I think it's somewhat less likely.

Here they show some healthy read progressions; they vote and push both Trendall and Clidd, but end up Townreading them both and refusing to vote for either of them. In this game, what read progressions has Lunar made? They've kept the same kind of reads all along, with a few little alterations here and there. I like how they ask questions with a view to sorting, like they did before their Clidd vote.

Lunar gives decent reasoning without needing to be prodded for it, like in 605.

They tried to keep the town on a healthy path in 864.

When under pressure they spew reads. Compare 1015 and 1156 to their behavior under pressure this game, where they just said 'read my posts' and refused to talk about their reads further. It's night and day.

In both games they've been dismissive of votes against them, saying there's no reasoning for it, but I don't think that line is justified in this game, as was highlighted by Gamma in 591.

@Gamma, Frogster, Grendel,

can you take a look a look at this and tell me what you think?

I think this is the best evaluation I've seen so far.

I want to point out something else from D1:

@bugs

Do you believe it's accurate to say that you and Lunar have a similar approach?

Bugs never addresses this question.

There is also this implied familiarity between Bugs and Lunar which is odd because I believe they've never played before. I go WAY in depth into this in my earlier theory about the traitor in 1439. I feel like Bugs and Lunar have this implied rapport which is coming from their talking in the scum chat.

D2: Lunar pockets Luca by replicating what Luca is looking for in D1

I get the feeling Lunar is Town based on their recent posts. You theorized earlier that Lunar's meta could be different from their previous town game due to this being their first time out of the Newbie queue,

and their recent posts are much more in line from what I'd expect from Town!Lunar.

I'll go back and check though to make sure.

Did you not consider that this is no coincidence? Lunar can see what you posted about them just as well as the rest of us can, and during the night they had time to recoup from the pressure of D1 and figure out what needed to be said to get you to townread them. Your very detailed analysis of how Lunar's meta differed may have given them the insight they needed to correct their scum play, at least in the short term..

Here is something Lunar said that makes me believe this is exactly what happened:

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma.

Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

He's mentioning you twice here in relation to D1, as well as implying that he DIDN'T feel very good about his D1 play.

Maybe it's possible, but I'm pretty confident Lunar is Town now. I'm not sure they could suddenly turn it on like that as scum out of nowhere. It seems genuine.

I think this is the moment where the scum finally slipped through a crack in the PoE they had been placed in since the beginning of the game. I think that you're underestimating Lunar and what drives Lunar. I believe Lunar is midrange in agreeableness and perhaps motivated more so in altruism than the average person, especially for what this website seems to self-select for. I also am getting a bit of a cold read on Lunar that leads me to believe Lunar is unlike many players here in that they are very high in conscientiousness, which among other things means they are more likely to succeed in general, and in particular I believe Lunar is motivated by a sense of the subfacet dutifulness.

Here they are below:

Average Agreeableness:
Your level of Agreeableness is average, indicating some concern with others' Needs, but, generally, unwillingness to sacrifice yourself for others.

Altruism (Sub facet of Agreeableness):
Altruism. Altruistic people find helping other people genuinely rewarding. Consequently, they are generally willing to assist those who are in need. Altruistic people find that doing things for others is a form of self-fulfillment rather than self-sacrifice. Low scorers on this scale do not particularly like helping those in need. Requests for help feel like an imposition rather than an opportunity for self-fulfillment.

High Conscientiousness:
Your score on Conscientiousness is high. This means you set clear goals and pursue them with determination. People regard you as reliable and hard-working.

Dutifulness (Sub facet of Conscientiousness):
Dutifulness. This scale reflects the strength of a person's sense of duty and obligation. Those who score high on this scale have a strong sense of moral obligation. Low scorers find contracts, rules, and regulations overly confining. They are likely to be seen as unreliable or even irresponsible.

What I'm getting at here is that Lunar feels like they're letting the team down by almost being the D1 lynch, and they feel a sense of obligation to perform well in their given role (scum.) They're also capable of working hard enough to meet the demands of whatever task they're motivated to complete, WITHOUT losing concentration in the process. They also are not motivated necessarily to be the centre of attention or be the hero. This is a bit awkward, because in this case, the scum team really needed a hero to break through the town block and take some risks to get town read hard. With this solve, clearly the scum team was not doing well D1, and Lunar took responsibility, and Lunar worked hard to be town READ on D2 but not necessarily become a super star. Lunar's main strategy here was to focus on reversing the reads or heavily discrediting townie wall-of-text posters who were tearing him apart D1, and push

everyone

else.

So again, I think that Lunar was most definitely emulating the town!Lunar play YOU SAID YOU WERE LOOKING FOR THE DAY BEFORE. Take one more look at this comment and tell me that you honestly don't believe scum!Lunar took N1 to carefully read exactly what you said you were looking for in town!Lunar, call you a blubbering obv townie with an ego that's too big on D2, and then emulate exactly what you said you were looking for from D1:

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma.

Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

I know that there are two other scum tells in this post, and I'll get to those later.

I also like their read change on me - it would be so easy for scum to ride a scum read like that instead of reassessing.

Again, I'll stay open to the possibility of Lunar!scum but I'm happy enough with them for now.

Of course you like that they town read because it's your ego that you're obv town. Of course you also like their recent posts emulating their town!Lunar play because it's exactly what you said you were looking for D1.

D2: What the hell is Lunar's read progession? introducing.. Lunar "I FoS both my partners with no explanation while pushing ALL townies except for Luca and Frogsterking whom I discredit" Martian

*@ALL*

Looking over yesterday I'd love some GtH reads on Luca, Momrangul, and Trendel from anybody available to do so

Without re-reading at all: Town, Mafia, Mafia?

Where is the read on Momrangul coming from? It's coming from nowhere. And in case you couldn't guess, it's not going anywhere either.

This game feels like it's simpler than it seems and Mafia are mostly coasting by in low-activity slots. Every time we pressure someone they turn out to be Town, or get protected by a claim. That suggests that the scum are in slots we aren't pressuring, or are protected by claims.

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

Without a major revelation I don't think I want to eliminate outside of those four today.

#1

"I want Luca to stop being logical and start town reading me."

#2

"Same as Luca."

#3

"NoPower seems pretty town read but I also want to push him and see what happens. I'm putting him on my townread list so my scum read list doesn't get too big."

#4

"Gamma seems like he's pretty town read but might be an easier push than Luca or Frogsterking so I'll say he's both town and scum in this post and see what happens later."

My hero solve looks something like: NoPower, bugs, Trendall. Throw in Mom for an extra, and put Gamma in the Town boat.
I think I'd prefer to kill bugs or NoPower today, and I don't know how many other people are willing to go bugs, so VOTE: NoPower

Lunar, what happened to your "town read" on NoPower?? 2 posts ago??

And you prefer to kill Bugs or NoPower and vote NoPower who you're townreading?? Coincidence??

Notice the FoS on Bugs and Mom with no explanation, while pushing or discrediting EVERYONE IN THEIR SCUM

AND

TOWN LIST EXCEPT BUG AND MOM.

Of course immediately after, Lunar cases a different player, still NOT Bugs or Mom.

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more. Trendall has not done a whole lot this game except sheep me, defend me,

discredit Frogster's pseudo-psychoanalysis

, and try not to take firm stands.

Can we just take a moment to appreciate the complete and total irony of this statement.

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more. Trendall has not done a whole lot this game except sheep me, defend me, discredit Frogster's pseudo-psychoanalysis,

and try not to take firm stands.

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

I think I'd prefer to kill bugs or NoPower today, and I don't know how many other people are willing to go bugs, so VOTE: NoPower

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more.

Also this one.

Okay, fine, let's hear the case:

I took a look at Trendall's posts, and here is a (rather long) post with some highlights. After reading this I like my hero solve a lot more. Trendall has not done a whole lot this game except sheep me, defend me, discredit Frogster's pseudo-psychoanalysis, and try not to take firm stands.

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Sheeping me.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Changes his mind for ??? reason, but suggests that Trendall is not Mafia with Gamma.

The NoPowerOverMe wagon sounds like it has been generated or influenced by mafia, yeah.

Discredits the NoPower wagon but doesn't really give any reasoning or alternatives.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: OutWorldER

He hadn't even mentioned ER prior to this, no reasoning given, but I think this vote is sheeping me, as I recall.

Lunar Martian seems like town to me.

Now I start to come under pressure and who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.

This is a pretty cheap statement to make with no reasoning, and suggests possible TMI.

I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really.

Again, defending me.

You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.

And there are fewer players (9 instead of 13 makes a huge difference), there are different players, it's an open setup, the roles are more basic, it took place at a different time in their life.....

Really doubling down on defending me. It kind of feels like an attempt to pocket me.

I don't mind voting bugspray but I don't think it's the best elimination. They could be maf tho.

So what exactly is Trendall's opinion of bugs? Can anyone tell me after reading this post? Feels like being unsure how to approach a wagon on a fellow Mafia.

I love personality tests and all this sort of thing, I just think the way that you in particular are trying to apply them to this game is bad.

Discrediting Frogster features heavily in Trendall's posts.

I don't see how scum!Trendall or scum!bugs are expecting to win the game playing today the way they have, unless they are expecting OutWorldER or some deep scum to carry them.

I'm in favour of eliminating OutWorldER though.

This suggests that ER is town and bugs is Mafia.

For me Grendel really just reminds me of another player I played a game with who I was sorta low-key suspicious of all game and then just eventually turned out to be town.

Another statement that's super cheap to make. It doesn't actually say anything and allows Trendall to come down on either side later.

VOTE: Trendall

Again, sorry that's so long.

...okay Lunar. Nice acting.

gamma was added to the hood at the same time as me and claims to be backup
there is a claimed town investigative role (which one is unclear) that claims to have a green light on npom

Good thing you swapped your vote off of npom between between posts 1032 and 1033. Did Bugs give you the heads up in your scum chat or did you realize that you had immediately before hand townread npom in 1031?

Now I start to come under pressure and who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Why is this a big deal?

It's just odd, since Trendall seemed very confident I was Town but never really explained why other than "there's nothing bad there".

Lunar is clearly pushing Trendall over Mom and Bugs who he also claims to FoS.

I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.

I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone

has to be

scum in it

And yet it seems likely that someone is. You trying to encourage us not to think so makes me question you. A few Gamma posts recently have really made me question my thinking about Gamma.

Are you questioning your scum read, or your town read? Or both? What? Which one is it? Lunar is now pushing both Trendall and Gamma (who he also thinks is town??) and still ignoring Bugs and Mom.

I also want to point out another pattern emerging from Lunar's iso, where Lunar wants to make sure we know there is exactly 1 scum in the hood, except Lunar has TWO players from the hood in their scum list, Bugs and Gamma, and despite this strong belief that there is 1 scum in the hood and Gamma is "probably town", Lunar is again never pushing Bugs and always pushing Gamma.

Votecount 2.5

Trendall(3)

~ Lunar Martian(44), NoPowerOverMe(15), Frogsterking(56)

bugspray(2)

~ OutWorldER(9), Luca Blight(55)

Momrangal(1)

~ Grendel(17)


Not Voting (5): Trendall(34), Momrangal(7), bugspray(9), Gamma Emerald(21), Galron(7)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-13 20:42:20)

FLAVOR

frame 19 out of 19035

This vote count gave me pause because everyone voting was someone I think is Town. But immediately after it two people I don't think are Town place votes. Very interesting.

Lol. Why did you vote for npom then? And what does this even mean?? Looks like a scum filler post.

D1: Amelie is willing to execute Lunar over ORAM

There's a little voice inside my head that's talking me into hammering bugs.

Dont. I think we need to shift off bugspray right now.

Why the urgency? And why does you thinking bugs is Town suddenly mean you don't think I'm Town anymore. You had me as Town before.

Why the urgency? And why does you thinking bugs is Town suddenly mean you don't think I'm Town anymore. You had me as Town before.

The elim is between you two. I don't particularly scum read you but I prefer you over bugspray.

I do not think ORAM is a good elimination today.

This may or may not have been a factor, but when it comes to the hammer she's clearly willing to prioritize a gut town read on ORAM which the scum know is correct over protecting Lunar. She is willing to compromise and work with the town block, who are town reading her. This may throw doubt that despite what she says, she will not be any asset to the scum team, and in fact if Momrangul was informed of her role it might just be worth getting rid of her.

D2: Gamma's read and Lunar's massive gaslighting to get me to stop scum reading them (this one in non-chronological order).

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

A psychologist might call this confirmation bias.

Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.

Okay if I change my vote again it’s going to this, this looks awful

Yeah being nice to people is really awful, how dare I.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.

That doesn’t change that nothing about that tone seemed polite or respectful. I still think you were shading him.

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

Top tier logic over here: someone made a compelling case on someone I think is Mafie. Because the case is so compelling, they must be Town.

I still feel pretty confident for other reasons that Trendall is Mafia

Still thinkin' about that mega suspicious town read I had on you huh?

The straw man graveyard is filling up really fast. Soon we will be all out of straw men and will have to address the real arguments though.

So you think I'm misrepresenting what you're saying, right? Do you think I'm doing it on purpose? What do you think my motives are?

Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.

I feel like every time Gamma posts I become more convinced that he's posting with some agenda rather than because he's trying to solve the game.

Does scum choose to 1v1 you here rather than just kill you? Granted, it's possible Amelie might have taken a bullet for you, but I'm still not sure scum would approach it in this manner.

I'm much more used to passive scum players to be honest. Scum who have an active agenda and plan are pretty few and far between from my experience.

I'll stay open minded though if you want to do that scum case.

Interesting, I'm more used to teams with 1 scum that has an active agenda and tries to plan, at least in some capacity, while the others are either passive or try to follow.

And I'll stay open minded to OutWorldER being the town in Lunar/Bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall or that my PoE is wrong.

Yeah you're way too cocky right now. Please take a second to reset and try to look at things objectively.

The story keeps changing.

Frogster, I thought you were going to rethink and not just tunnel me anymore.

Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.

I don't see how in one possibility one person can be 'obvious' and in another possibility the same person can be town. And 'obvscum possibly' is like...

That's a strange thing to latch onto. Clearly it's two competing and mutually exclusive theories. Why are you trying to discredit Frogster so consistently?

Why are YOU trying to discredit Frogster so consistently?

D2: Lunar clearly jumping onto the Mom bandwagon after all it's already 100% going through and all of their attempts to push anyone besides Bugs or Mom have been exhausted

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

D3: Lunar's vote progression and fence sitting x2: Now suddenly Galron is obv town despite last mention of being suspicious in D2, and starting MORE counter BWs to Bugs this time siding AGAINST Luca.

Assume there's at least one Mafia member in the neighbor chat.

is this a request or a statement of your thinking?

It's more a warning that there's pretty likely to be one, so be careful claiming stuff in there.

welp, at the very least now I’m 100% confident that tehre’s scum among [luca/bug], not 80 like I was before

thank you thank you

it was probably still worth it

I think both remaining Mafia will be found in those two and Gamma. Kinda still think Luca is Town, but I'll feel very good about my Day 1 if Luca is Mafia.

UNVOTE: For now. Vote is there in spirit probably, but there's something odd going on and its too early to end the day anyway.

Galron is kind of obvTown. It's probably Gamma, but otherwise maybe Luca.

For reference, Lunar's last mention of Galron:

Spoiler:

This game feels like it's simpler than it seems and Mafia are mostly coasting by in low-activity slots. Every time we pressure someone they turn out to be Town, or get protected by a claim. That suggests that the scum are in slots we aren't pressuring, or are protected by claims.

I think these people are Town: Luca

#1 (a grudging Townread, I think he's overconfident and should chill out a bit)

, Frogster

#2 (same as Luca)

, NoPower

#3 (or am I confused?)

, OutWorldER, Grendel. Galron I go back and forth on.

That leaves these people: bugs, Mom, Gamma

#4 (and Gamma is probably town)

, and Trendall.

Without a major revelation I don't think I want to eliminate outside of those four today.

Galron and I have been on the same page about a whole lot of stuff and Galron has made a number of posts I feel Mafia never makes. I can go dig up some posts if you really want, joqiza.

Luca's recent posting has me increasingly convinced that Luca is Mafia.

I believe this recent stuff is self-explanatory and demonstrates a clear pattern in their play. Basically Lunar will FoS Bugs every chance he gets while pushing everyone besides Bugs at all costs, and his reads make no sense and have no progression. The only thing Lunar ever posted that had any kind of case or reasoning behind it was the case on Trendall in 1033, which made no sense in light of the npom vote immediately before in 1032, which made no sense in light of Lunar "town reading" the slot in 1031.

Miscellaneous Lunar quotes I marked for some reason (I'm getting tired)

I should maybe clarify that a lot of what is coming across as me being temperamental is mostly me being sarcastic. ORAM is town here.

Lunar feels the need to qualify himself before outing a town read on ORAM.

I think Grendel is right to point out that ER has been inactive since pressure started to build on them. The pressure consequently dissipated, and they have remained inactive except a quick comment after being prodded.

Lunar narrating scum filler again like the comment on D2 about the vote count.

Oof dislike the way this went down. I hope you all prove me wrong about ORAM though.

Sketch.

I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?

Lunar trying to get any lynch forward besides Bugs. Not even mentioning Mom.

Hmm actually I didn't move my vote. VOTE: Mom

This is big IMO, Lunar is clearly jumping on the wagon after it's already going through and trying tirelessly to work the Trendall and Gamma angles, despite "FoSing" Mom since the beginning of the day, of course for an unclaimed reason that's never pushed.

Frogster as someone who seems incredibly prone to confirmation bias, I think maybe you should be extra careful with reaction tests. Either you are a Mafia God who basically solved the game Day 1, or you saw exactly what you wanted to see from that test. I still think you're more likely to be Town than Mafia, but I feel like you're verging on being a liability.

Lunar setting up a possible push on me now along with further discrediting, again, Lunar will push or discredit anyone as long as they're town.

Shower thought: Trendall's arguments with me very much feel like Trendall thinks I have bad intentions in the argument, which suggests that Trendall legitimately thinks I'm Mafia, which means Trendall must be Town. That said, Trendall's latest posts saying "I'm Town" repeatedly make me think Trendall is Mafia. Trendall is probably Town, but I'm going to need to rethink that. Getting other perspectives might be helpful too since I'm a little bit too close to get a good read at this point, since I can't see the bigger picture outside of my fight with Trendall very much.

This is another look at Lunar's acting and also another example of fence-sitting so he can push whichever lynch is most likely to go through.

I think all the Mafia are within Mom, Trendall, bugs, and Gamma. I guess I'll vote either person we have a guilty on today and tomorrow, and then I have a preference for Trendall over Gamma the following day.

Question though: how would a tracker have a guilty? Especially if Amelie wasn't the intended kill? Or was Amelie targeted by Mom?

Guess which one he pushes first?

Your avatar or the shit you talked about my PoE is not even remotely helping your case right now.

I’d appreciate it if you didn’t attack me directly.

If my avatar triggers you, please tell me that privately and I’ll change it.
If you disagree with my reads, please comment on those I elaborated on.

If I ever insulted you, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean it. I will try to be nicer in the future
Please do the same. Let’s not make this game toxic

I will be triggered if you change your avatar.

Either way I think 'lunatic' is a bit harsh, even if you didn't mean it to be.

I believe that this is Lunar's authentic self here and not their acting, motivated by his altruism, which along with their conscientiousness and sense of duty to their team, enables Lunar to "turn on" the town tells when Lunar feels like they're underperforming, as long as they're not caught off guard like they were D1 and hopefully now.

LAST POINT N2: Grendel was probably investigating Lunar

I'd like to visit Trendel.

Bugs was already guilted right?

I will check Lunar then, because they were fairly suspected, maybe they did not send in the night kill yet in case of tracker.

Sounds Good!

-/-//-/-/-

man, if i hadnt gotten cold feet on bugs D1 maybe this could've been a straight up perfect town game! I havent had one of those in a Loooong time.

We know now that Grendel wasn't investigating Trendall because Grendel is a traffic analyst. Scum probably didn't KNOW this, but they may have suspected and feared this possibility after 1) Grendel caught Momrangul off guard with the late guilty and 2) I later revealed that I'm unable to investigate Lunar because I'm not a pr, but I suggested him here as a target and together we set the remaining PoE down to Trendall/Lunar anyway. Lunar CAN show up as guilty to the traffic analyst, unlike the Trendall slot or Gamma can, so it makes sense that scum!Lunar would absolutely kill Grendel here, pretty much regardless of what power the pr in the hood has.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugspray

Your turn, Lunar. Put your "FoS" back at l-1.

[Frogsterking]

Intent to hammer.

..K

Also, I knew confirmation bias was the most powerful force in the universe, but this is on a level I've never seen before. I might have discovered confirmation bias' power source here.

I like how me being right plays into me being Mafia.

Check:

am i getting punk'd lmao?

u accused me of active lurking on like my 2nd or 3rd post lmao?

did prodging become AI while i was away im starting to get lost in the sauce rn

Well at the very least he’s an unhelpful pointless townie
VOTE: Nosferatu

ok now i know somethings up bro you're not telling me you actually read that incoherent ramble and just said "well ya know hes not doing much"

WHAT

I also thought Nosferatu's reaction to my FoS was terrible in addition to his silent BW in the spoilers below:

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

what are you even saying bro
which one of us was drinking last night lmao

wait until sober to post*

VOTE: walter

Overall sordoros appears closer to new-neutral than new-scum from my point of view while Nosferatu straight up deserves a BW.

he didnt even say what he didnt like bro

what the fuck is a silent bandwagon, a naked vote?

he literally quoted a correction you can't even tell what im talking about

this is like performance art

callforjudgement continues their focus on optimal play. I suspect their desire to lecture people over how they ought to play is a NAI personality trait.

I do it to make it possible to distinguish between players who play in an anti-town way out of ignorance and players who play in an anti-town way out of choice. It isn't intended to read me, so much as to read other players.

On that note, VOTE: Nosferatu. I was hoping to sort Nosferatu by seeing where their vote moved after I pointed out that it wasn't doing anything useful, but Nosferatu seems happy to be intentionally hard to read and to make it hard for it to scumhunt other players, even after I explained the consequences of those actions.

I think Frogster's initial case on Nosferatu is weak (but seems to be sincere), but Nosferatu's reaction to it has been pretty telling in its own right.

im so over this bullshit read my town pm and weep

VOTE: nosferatu

if ur on this wagon you suck at this game

it is anti-town wincon to bleed town d1 and you know it cfg, and that bullshit abt consequences of being on whats basically an rvs wagon is ridiculous

those actions.

I think Frogster's initial case on Nosferatu is weak (but seems to be sincere), but Nosferatu's reaction to it has been pretty telling in its own right.

which bit didn't you like?

i dont like unvoting; i dont see a pressing reason to switch off, etc

this I amfine with for example.
note that you are buddying up with frogster and using their logic/wagon to justify your own vote

thats not what buddying means bro im not pocketing him by telling him his case is shit or endearing myself to him in any fucking way

just send me to the fucking spoiler chat

VOTE: Frogsterking

I can't possibly see Frogsterking acting this way if he knows I'm town. Tunnelling may not be all that hard to fake, but this sort of utterly illogical tunnelling, based on a fantasy gamestate that makes no sense and exists only in Frogsterking's mind, is almost impossible to fake; I don't think it's possible to get your mind into that place if you have proof from your role PM that you're wrong. Frogsterking's behaviour is very anti-town (in that it doesn't actually help with finding anyone else as scum, and doesn't help Frogsterking get sensible reads either, and means that Frogsterking will probably end up losing the game by voting for the wrong player near late-game due to having no understanding of the actual gamestate). But it isn't something that I think can come from scum.

As a consequence, I'm seeing Frogsterking as pretty much certain town, and other players should be seeing Frogsterking as "town unless CFJ is scum, and probably still town even then".

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

wrap it up we found scum! someone is smoking in my profile picture!

[Frogsterking]

I'm still waiting on that hammer Lunar. What are you waiting for, a claim?

VOTE: Bugspray
I almost completely agree with the case and my one concern doesn’t really weaken it at all

I’m sorry for being rude but do you have any original reads?

Technically that’s my read to begin with. But besides that I’ve had plenty of original reads I’d say.
Also I was hesitant on voting but decided I wanted to put Lunar to the test. He didn’t do the first thing I expected him to do as scum but that doesn’t mean he’s town to me, I don’t like how he’s pushing me here.

I expected Lunar to hammer only if they're town because I'm expecting a Bugs flip today to be near autoloss for scum. There is a 0% chance Lunar will hammer Bugs because Lunar will be letting their scum team down.

[Frogsterking]

quitting the TvT would be appreciated.
Focusing on bugs/luca instead would be great as well

...or just waiting for me to write my case
a few hours really won’t kill you

I have one million percent certainty the final pair is Bugs/Lunar. Lunar can't hammer because of autoloss.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

[Frogsterking]

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Why don't you case it then?

[Frogsterking]

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Why don't you case it then?

I believe you are fence sitting right now to avoid having to explain your reads on the spot. When evaluating your slot in iso it becomes clear that your reads are very ambivalent and the only thing you've explained is your scum read on the Trendall slot. For anyone that missed, I went over all of this in 1589.

[Frogsterking]

If you actually read 1589 like you claimed then you would know exactly what Gamma is referring to, and fyi the inconsistency of your slot progression I focused mainly on D2, though I also included Luca's case on your slot from D1.

[Frogsterking]

1031, 1032, 1033 are blatant examples of this ambivalent and inconsistent read progression, and weak distancing FoSes on both Bugs and Momrangal while pushing and discrediting everyone else. In 1328 you're late onto the Momrangal bandwagon, only going on after you "forgot" to switch your vote and it was already clear that wagon was going through despite your best efforts. Now again you will be hypothetically late going onto the Bugs bandwagon, but I don't think you will hammer Bugs at all because you know then it will be over for you.

Again, these are all arguments you would have seen before had you actually read 1589, as you implied three times in a row after it was posted, in 1592, 1593, and again in 1594.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Why don't you case it then?

I believe you are fence sitting right now to avoid having to explain your reads on the spot. When evaluating your slot in iso it becomes clear that your reads are very ambivalent and the only thing you've explained is your scum read on the Trendall slot. For anyone that missed, I went over all of this in 1589.

What do you mean fence-sitting? I'm taking some pretty firm stances here. Bugs and Gamma. Maybe Luca or Trendall. Everyone else is Town. Pretty confident in that. I even think I was probably wrong about Trendall. Ejji seems pretty Town.

1031, 1032, 1033 are blatant examples of this ambivalent and inconsistent read progression, and weak distancing FoSes on both Bugs and Momrangal while pushing and discrediting everyone else. In 1328 you're late onto the Momrangal bandwagon, only going on after you "forgot" to switch your vote and it was already clear that wagon was going through despite your best efforts. Now again you will be hypothetically late going onto the Bugs bandwagon, but I don't think you will hammer Bugs at all because you know then it will be over for you.

Again, these are all arguments you would have seen before had you actually read 1589, as you implied three times in a row after it was posted, in 1592, 1593, and again in 1594.

Your "firm stance" is FoSing four different slots and casting suspicion on my own, in a scenario when there are only two scum left, and blatantly lying about the nature of the massive case I laid out clearly in 1589 which you pretended to read.

I almost feel a little cruel here going on like this, it seems like you're just caught scum and there is no way out for you.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

I think I've solved the game. I'm just biding my time while people say what they need to. I'll reconsider tomorrow if I'm proven wrong.

Why don't you case it then?

I believe you are fence sitting right now to avoid having to explain your reads on the spot. When evaluating your slot in iso it becomes clear that your reads are very ambivalent and the only thing you've explained is your scum read on the Trendall slot. For anyone that missed, I went over all of this in 1589.

What do you mean fence-sitting? I'm taking some pretty firm stances here. Bugs and Gamma. Maybe Luca or Trendall. Everyone else is Town. Pretty confident in that. I even think I was probably wrong about Trendall. Ejji seems pretty Town.

1031, 1032, 1033 are blatant examples of this ambivalent and inconsistent read progression, and weak distancing FoSes on both Bugs and Momrangal while pushing and discrediting everyone else. In 1328 you're late onto the Momrangal bandwagon, only going on after you "forgot" to switch your vote and it was already clear that wagon was going through despite your best efforts. Now again you will be hypothetically late going onto the Bugs bandwagon, but I don't think you will hammer Bugs at all because you know then it will be over for you.

Again, these are all arguments you would have seen before had you actually read 1589, as you implied three times in a row after it was posted, in 1592, 1593, and again in 1594.

Your "firm stance" is FoSing four different slots and casting suspicion on my own, in a scenario when there are only two scum left, and blatantly lying about the nature of the massive case I laid out clearly in 1589 which you pretended to read.

I almost feel a little cruel here going on like this, it seems like you're just caught scum and there is no way out for you.

Your "probably town" read of Trendall's slot doesn't mean anything, look at your "probably town" read on Gamma in 1030 where you proceed to push him all day over Bugs.

[Frogsterking]

@Ejji I'm open to engaging with your argument and even changing my mind, provided the engagement is organized on a point-by-point basis and you're directly refuting the solve I laid out in 1589.

1010, 1103, and 1108 are examples of what I'm looking for here and that I can be dissuaded from a view point. Luca changed my mind about Bugs on D2, I'm not cognitively inflexible, I've just seen that I'm more likely to lose the game by getting discouraged and underestimating my solve potential than by overestimating it, so you'll need to make it very clear to me why your POV is more likely to be correct before I adopt it.

An example of what I'm

not

looking for is what you wrote in 1600, which fails to acknowledge the points I already raised in 1589; Momrangel put a significant amount of effort D1 into creating a counter wagon to both Lunar and Bugs, Momrangel D2 chose to push Gamma over Lunar even though my recent theory had implicated both, Momrangel D2 passed an easy opportunity to case and hammer Bugs.

The type of back and forth you've engaged in so far has no hope of convergence, because there's nothing in 1600 that gives me any indication you did in fact read 1589. It isn't that I'm not listening to you because I'm unwilling to change my mind or because I believe you have nothing to contribute, I'm not listening to you because you've given me a low level of confidence that you're listening to me, therefore you have a higher chance of being a VI than presenting me with the correct solve. This perception can change instantly by altering your approach, and with that your chances of persuading me increase dramatically.

[Frogsterking]

There certainly is a VI.

1601

[Frogsterking]

Yeah can we get another VCA with a new frame? This flavor needs some spice.

[Frogsterking]

@Joq

Looks like you're going to get the responsibility of hammering! Where do you stand between Bugs and Luca?

I think another one of those OCEAN breakdowns like the one that was done for me, Grendel, and Amelie should probably be done for me and ejjinami
I am starting to get the sense our disagreement on some of our reads is on a fundamental level and I’d like to see where our differences lie

I'm planning on doing this tomorrow.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lunar

The Galron kill is definitely more incriminating on-wagon and outside the neighborhood, as Galron was 100% fully pocketed by the hood dynamic of this game.

I believe there is an optimal order to claiming and Lunar should go first. Beyond that I'm not sure.

I'm going to post more content tonight.

[Frogsterking]

I wanted to make a case on luca and figure out my vote lol
but w/e, that’s the hammer. Let’s just wait then

It's extremely important IMO that you reconstruct this case as it was to the best of your ability. It will be helpful for slots like OutWorldER in sorting you and in the off-chance that Luca bussed Bugs.

[Frogsterking]

Ejj is scum, I think.

N1 Amelie definitely protected Galron, and scum most probably targeted Galron based on her death. I need to do more analysis later.

I'm assuming the connection between your thoughts here is that scum knew to target Galron because Trendall was already in the hood. Another possibility is that Momrangel was informed of the presence of a Neapolitan cop between x amount of players, and scum narrowed it down correctly to Galron. This was an important factor in the game you posted earlier.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lunar

The Galron kill is definitely more incriminating on-wagon and outside the neighborhood, as Galron was 100% fully pocketed by the hood dynamic of this game.

I believe there is an optimal order to claiming and Lunar should go first. Beyond that I'm not sure.

I'm going to post more content tonight.

Did Galron reveal his other results in the hood?

In the event that Galron was blocked N2 that lends more to my idea. If scum have the ability to prevent Galron from receiving more reports he's much more useful to scum!Gamma or scum!Ejji alive rather than dead.

[Frogsterking]

Galron claimed yesterday that he had another result. Hopefully someone in the hood can confirm if this was the case.

I believe Gamma said at some point yesterday that Galron simply hadn't posted his N2 result in the neighborhood thread. I hope Galron shared it with the fellas at some point last night, otherwise I'll be a bit frustrated.

Rn I townread Frog, Luca, and OWER, and they seem to have a decent grip on this game. My top suspect is ejjinami after the Galron flip but will wait to hear everyone out. Still feels like we're working with an incomplete picture.

Overall solid work by town so far. I know I haven't done too much but thought I'd give some encouragement. I've enjoyed the table a lot.

If he didn't post it in the hood I would be frustrated as well as that's pretty much the whole reason it's there.

[Frogsterking]

Galron claimed yesterday that he had another result. Hopefully someone in the hood can confirm if this was the case.

I believe Gamma said at some point yesterday that Galron simply hadn't posted his N2 result in the neighborhood thread. I hope Galron shared it with the fellas at some point last night, otherwise I'll be a bit frustrated.

Rn I townread Frog, Luca, and OWER, and they seem to have a decent grip on this game. My top suspect is ejjinami after the Galron flip but will wait to hear everyone out. Still feels like we're working with an incomplete picture.

Overall solid work by town so far. I know I haven't done too much but thought I'd give some encouragement. I've enjoyed the table a lot.

If he didn't post it in the hood I would be frustrated as well as that's pretty much the whole reason it's there.

And good, I'm glad to hear it. I know the game isn't over yet but my feeling is the last is in Ejji/Lunar and that town has done really well this game.

[Frogsterking]

And if Galron was blocked N2 then presumably he’d have been less trusting of the hood?

Yeah that makes sense.

VOTE: Ejji

[Frogsterking]

Scum!ejj has made it hard for themselves by hard-defending Lunar, though. That would have been a viable miselim.

I guess he could've been trying to pocket. From scum!ejji POV Lunar was prob more likely to switch wagons off of Bugs than any of the other townies.

[Frogsterking]

Bugs mentions that Ejji is an investigative role a million times in Bug's iso.

[Frogsterking]

I guess Ejji should claim with reports, then Lunar. They might be counter claiming each other here now.

[Frogsterking]

I finally reset my password so I can log onto my phone! Should I be interpreting Ejji's absence as scum giving up?

[Frogsterking]

Scum!ejj has made it hard for themselves by hard-defending Lunar, though. That would have been a viable miselim.

Only because of a stupid fucking deathtunnel by someone who can't seem to get over themselves three weeks later. JFC frogster, how is it possible to confirmation bias this consistently after being called out on it? Every bit of evidence gets interpreted as me being Mafia, regardless of what the evidence even is. If something can't be spun as me being Mafia then you ignore it.

FYI in the context of this exchange this is a good thing because it's limiting scum!Ejji's options.

[Frogsterking]

yes, but it doesn't change much

I'm assuming OutWorldER is VT?

Scum!ejj has made it hard for themselves by hard-defending Lunar, though. That would have been a viable miselim.

Only because of a stupid fucking deathtunnel by someone who can't seem to get over themselves three weeks later. JFC frogster, how is it possible to confirmation bias this consistently after being called out on it? Every bit of evidence gets interpreted as me being Mafia, regardless of what the evidence even is. If something can't be spun as me being Mafia then you ignore it.

I'm assuming you're waiting for Ejji to claim?

[Frogsterking]

Ah.

[Frogsterking]

Are you reading Ejji's absence as AI?

[Frogsterking]

if you think I and lunar are a scum-team why aren’t you voting me lmao

and I said NOTHING about me and lunar being TvT. Don’t twist my words, please

I don’t think it’s you and lunar, I definitively think it is bugs and someone else, that someone else being lunar rn
And you didn’t say it now but it’s not impossible for you to try to bring it up later. If I were less charitable I’d suppose you were annoyed I called you on it pre-emptively.

ok, then comment on my last case as well.
Lunar is close to lock town on their own, they tunneled bugs for the majority of the game while mom jumped casually between unrelated wagons

mom wasn’t concerned wiht “2/3 of her scum team” getting lynched,
bugs didn’t seem pressured enough to fake ANY sort of interactions nor vote ANYWHERE, despite “2/3 of the scum team getting lynched”
and that all happened while lunar decided to screw all of them and buss.

how is that a functioning scum team????

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

SIGH

I’m 99,999% certain that’s NAI.
Not explaining reads in detail =/= being scum.
Caring enough to explain everything = possibly not wanting to get scum-read = scummy.

unless a player is literally unable to fake content (which obviously isn’t the case for lunar) it works in the exact opposite way

I mean I guess it's weird to townread Lunar for tunneling on Bugs since Ejji was arguing Bugs was town.

[Frogsterking]

if you think I and lunar are a scum-team why aren’t you voting me lmao

and I said NOTHING about me and lunar being TvT. Don’t twist my words, please

I don’t think it’s you and lunar, I definitively think it is bugs and someone else, that someone else being lunar rn
And you didn’t say it now but it’s not impossible for you to try to bring it up later. If I were less charitable I’d suppose you were annoyed I called you on it pre-emptively.

ok, then comment on my last case as well.
Lunar is close to lock town on their own, they tunneled bugs for the majority of the game while mom jumped casually between unrelated wagons

mom wasn’t concerned wiht “2/3 of her scum team” getting lynched,
bugs didn’t seem pressured enough to fake ANY sort of interactions nor vote ANYWHERE, despite “2/3 of the scum team getting lynched”
and that all happened while lunar decided to screw all of them and buss.

how is that a functioning scum team????

Lunar, if the reason for your brief pro town change in playstyle at the beginning of D2 --where you actually appeared to be trying to scum hunt and explain your reads and interact with other players-- was because you were getting used to Normals, why are you regressing back into your D1 persona now? Are you getting un-used to them?

SIGH

I’m 99,999% certain that’s NAI.
Not explaining reads in detail =/= being scum.
Caring enough to explain everything = possibly not wanting to get scum-read = scummy.

unless a player is literally unable to fake content (which obviously isn’t the case for lunar) it works in the exact opposite way

I mean I guess it's weird to townread Lunar for tunneling on Bugs since Ejji was arguing Bugs was town.

To clarify; it's incongruent fmpov for Ejji to be making this point about Lunar being Townie for tunneling Bugs.

[Frogsterking]

And what made you target Gamma, Ejji?

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: ejji

[Frogsterking]

Traffic Analyst, Neapolitan Cop neighbor, Bodyguard neighbor, Backup Neighbor vs (scum) Role Stopper neighbor, Informed and scum Backup Neighbor I would consider balanced with 6 VTs giving town a whopping 3 mislynches and multiple clears via reports.

Once you have Traffic Analyst, Neapolitan neighbor, Bodyguard neighbor, AND Role Stopper neighbor I feel it's starting to stretch the town power.

I'm also not sure, do scum usually get at least one goon in Normals or not?

I guess in this scenario scum are on a low roll because Grendel's ability was balanced to have multiple false positives in this setup, but he correctly hit a scum n1, so the setup may feel more townsided than it would play out on average.

[Frogsterking]

Does role stop resolve before night kill?

[Frogsterking]

I agree your play makes less sense from a scum!Ejji perspective, especially a scum!rolestopper.

I was working on what Gamma asked D3, and I came up with a theory that you primarily scum hunt via introspection to determine the https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propositional_attitude of others.

[Frogsterking]

Town:

Amelie - BG neighbor
Galron: Neap neighbor
Grendel - Traffic Analyst
Gamma: back-up neighbor
ejj - roleblocker neighbor??

Scum:

Bugs: backup neighbor
Momrangal: informed

Think that's where we're at right now.

I’m decently confident that mom might have known about the power roles in the hood, or at least about grandel’s or amelie’s
Otherwise killing them N1 wouldn’t have made that much sense.
The last mafia role is likely powerful (and likely not a role-blocker cuz they should have targeted galron otherwise???)

TBH I can't imagine anything scum could have that would make the setup balanced. I'll go take a look at the role list though.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar shouldn't be claiming VT here because of his D1 soft.

[Frogsterking]

TBH I can't imagine anything scum could have that would make the setup balanced. I'll go take a look at the role list though.

some sort of joat or role that could disrupt the investigatives would probably work....???????????????????
honestly, no idea

If they have the ability to disrupt investigatives then they've done a terrible job with it.

[Frogsterking]

I agree your play makes less sense from a scum!Ejji perspective, especially a scum!rolestopper.

I was working on what Gamma asked D3, and I came up with a theory that you primarily scum hunt via introspection to determine the https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propositional_attitude of others.

yeah.... that’s what I “””””””specialize””””””” in.

with results you saw before lol

funnily, I would have nailed the scum-team in the last game I was about to replace into xd
that might be one of the reasons why I got overconfident here

Wait seriously I was right about that?

How would you describe your process of introspection?

[Frogsterking]

Personally assuming all the claims are real I don't see anything Normal in the last scum slot that could make the setup balanced IMO.

[Frogsterking]

Ejji do you agree Lunar softed PR D1 and do you think it's AI?

[Frogsterking]

That's what I was considering as well, Luca. There was a lengthy discussion about this in my last game. Apparently it's in bad taste to run a 4 scum Normal in the current meta.

Scum!ejj has made it hard for themselves by hard-defending Lunar, though. That would have been a viable miselim.

Only because of a stupid fucking deathtunnel by someone who can't seem to get over themselves three weeks later. JFC frogster, how is it possible to confirmation bias this consistently after being called out on it? Every bit of evidence gets interpreted as me being Mafia, regardless of what the evidence even is. If something can't be spun as me being Mafia then you ignore it.

I wouldn't call my relationship to your slot a death tunnel because I detailed my read with in-thread examples and re-evaluated your slot multiple times (at your request.)

What made you FoS the Gamma slot over the Trendall slot?

[Frogsterking]

I never wanted to elim Frogster or NPOM? I've read them as Town from the start. And again, the argument was with Lunar, not Bugs.

You clearly haven't read my posts very well.

oof......
lemme look through your posts xd

sorry if that’s the case

FYI this is why you scored in the bottom percentile of "cautiousness" (a category you've been mislabeling which is actually called conscientious, cautiousness is just a sub facet of conscientious.) It's your lack of attention to detail. If it makes you feel any better I also score in the bottom percentile.

Maybe I will write that personality comparison after all, I was starting to doubt myself but I think I was on the right track.

[Frogsterking]

Just throwing this out there - is it

possible

there could be four scum, one perhaps being a traitor?

That could explain the apparent amount of Town power.

I feel like the NRG tries to shy away from such setups? Also I feel like the town isn’t actually OP rn
At least 2 mafia have legitimate excuses for the Neapolitan and the backup neighbor can slip by the TA

Who is the second mafia with a legitimate excuse for the Neapolitan?

[Frogsterking]

I agree your play makes less sense from a scum!Ejji perspective, especially a scum!rolestopper.

I was working on what Gamma asked D3, and I came up with a theory that you primarily scum hunt via introspection to determine the https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propositional_attitude of others.

yeah.... that’s what I “””””””specialize””””””” in.

with results you saw before lol

funnily, I would have nailed the scum-team in the last game I was about to replace into xd
that might be one of the reasons why I got overconfident here

Wait seriously I was right about that?

How would you describe your process of introspection?

most of the time I just read other players’ posts without getting into the details
skilled scum can always fake a good read or reaction to a scum-read so I usually assume that reading into long wall-posts (and posts a player clearly put much effort into), is just a waste of time
Posts that look as if they were posted spontaneously or show emotions in an unobvious way seem to be more AI

idk if I’m doing it correctly but usually I just try to figure out what a person focuses on (what’s their mood / state of mind / motivation) and look for posts that a scum-player (who is currently focused on the stuff I found) wouldn’t focus on... then I just assume that it’s AI and try to determine how confident I am in them not doing it coincidentally

because of that, I usually get more town than scum-reads xD

funnily, besides him wanting to lynch people I town-read at the beginning of D1 (frog, npom, lunar) the main reason I was scum-reading luca for were because he only showed “readable” emotions in posts I thought he was likely to work on for a long time... he wrote the read on bugs (with lots of confidence and care), voted and just went “emotionally silent” later on.
People didn’t seem to agree with him later on yet he didn’t show any emotions related to anger because of that.
the only emotions I noticed were when he interacted with bugs again and voiced his anger for bugs being unwilling to cooperate...
if I remember it right, it was written in a way that pretty much meant: “you’re not cooperating so I don’t have a choice” = “lol, it’s not my fault that you’re getting mis-lynched”
there were no emotions when he hammered someone else either... just like: “everyone is town-reading me so I don’t care. I can push bugs tomorrow.”

when I replaced in I was dead certain that he is scum who just got town-read and lazy because of it xD
but oh well...

I think you're doing it correctly but it could be supplemented with other methods more, and your lack of organization and attention to detail is undermining your success. I suspect another dynamic is happening as well where you doubt your ability to do something because you didn't get the results you were expecting, but your ability to do the thing is fine, you weren't getting the results because of lack of planning, organization, and attention to detail. In this case your scum hunting ability wasn't a problem, it was your ability to execute it.

[Frogsterking]

I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.

VOTE: Trendall

This bugs me

Is this some sort of hint?

Is Lunar scum traitor, along with a Bugs, Momrangal, ejj scum team?

Just something that caught my eye.

I analyzed a similar idea in depth in 1439.

Something that was pointed out to me after was that on MS traitors are typically informed of their scum team.

[Frogsterking]

Ah, I see.

I know, I got so excited when I saw that.

It makes the comment from Momrangel even more bizarre, there's no follow up at all and I don't think it's a comment that she normally makes. I'm wondering now if it was subconscious and she was indeed thinking of her team mate, Bugs, when she wrote it.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lunar

scum!Lunar could play for Gamma and Ejji mis elim's and a three-way end game between Luca, OutWorldER, and Lunar. I don't think that's likely to succeed from their point of view, but not unreasonable at all to continue playing for and probably their best option.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should mass claim. In the meantime, VOTE: Gamma

Scum!ejj has made it hard for themselves by hard-defending Lunar, though. That would have been a viable miselim.

Only because of a stupid fucking deathtunnel by someone who can't seem to get over themselves three weeks later. JFC frogster, how is it possible to confirmation bias this consistently after being called out on it? Every bit of evidence gets interpreted as me being Mafia, regardless of what the evidence even is. If something can't be spun as me being Mafia then you ignore it.

VOTE: Gamma

At first I read this as anger, but the context along with the unnecessary second vote still with no Gamma case could be a sign of panic. Definitely Lunar is experiencing some distress here and wants to emphasize the attention on Gamma; which is incongruent with Lunar's own attention which is directed toward myself, which is incongruent in the first place with a game state with two scum consecutively executed, three living clears, and a pr claim.

This also reminds me of Lunar's town read on Galron yesterday which came out of nowhere, which Luca reasoned could be evidence of an inno report on Galron. After Lunar claims VT however we'll know this isn't the case which makes Lunar's claim that Galron is "obv town" more evidence that Lunar is faking that read because Lunar is already planning for Galron to be the night kill.

[Frogsterking]

But she must have been bussing/distancing on some level, as she pushed/voted all of Lunar/Outworld/Trendall D1.

Lunar is the only one she voted who was close to getting eiminated, however.

I don't remember this occuring when I was analyzing the D1 wagons. Can you link to the posts you're referring to?

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.15

Trendall(3)

~ Grendel(76), Lunar Martian(56), NoPowerOverMe(128)

Lunar Martian(3)

~ Galron(29), bugspray(48), Frogsterking(74)

bugspray(3)

~ Luca Blight(96), OutWorldER(18), Gamma Emerald(118)

OutWorldER(2)

~ Trendall(36), Momrangal(39)

NoPowerOverMe(1)

~ Amélie(67)

Not Voting (1): ORAM(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2021-01-01 11:27:58)

FLAVOR

frame 14 out of 19035

VOTE: Trendall

I prefer OWER over Trendall especially if Lunar is scum here. The fact that he doesn't mind OWER and Trendall but votes Trendalls smaller wagon over OWERS larger wagon at the time (by a vote or two) feels like he's trying to push a CW to a possible partner only to leave himself open to bus him towards the end to reduce the association between the two of them.

VOTE: Lunar,

Grendel, how do you feel about Lunar stating he doesn't mind offing OWER and Trendall yet choosing the smaller wagon betwen the two?

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

OWER/Trendall/NPOM was always his scum team, until more started going up against OWER more.


More notably, I found this on a quick iso to double check

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

This came after his vote, and after Frog acknowledged that I may have something here. There were multiple wagons at the time, and it feels like newbscum sticking to some scumreads to look like they are generating them early on and sticking to their reads and falling back on just one of them when others start looking more into it.

Also at this time, Trendall was popular. If two scum are in the POE pool d1 it makes sense as a survivalistic move to try and move over to a townie that's under scrutiny to save them

Here's the context where Momrangel jumps on the Lunar wagon.

I'm not sure about scum vs scum wagon dynamics, I guess on principle they try to create a counter wagon and then when that fails they have to choose one for a bus?

[Frogsterking]

At the end of D1 Momrangal was pushing the Lunar elim a far bit, certainly over Bugs. This is giving me pause, given the last scum would presumably be a decent PR.

Perhaps the scum team was prioritizing Bugs ability to enter the hood and find the remaining PRs, and/or perhaps Momrangal has played with Bugs before and was prioritizing their ability to work together over whatever role Lunar has. Bugs made a comment about Momrangal not allowing the scum chat to become toxic which makes me suspect they're won or played together as scum before.

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Momrangal could easily have pushed Trendall there instead, if Trendall was Town and Lunar scum.

Yeah. I'll give it some time.

UNVOTE: Lunar

[Frogsterking]

TBH I do not see scum!Ejji stalling in this way with his claim, which is exactly what it is.

Ejji can make a play where he makes this claim and no-kills to incriminate OutWorldER, but that type of play may be against the rules here (I don't know how "stalemate" is handled here), and even if he can convince town to execute instead of NLing for mylo, he will be executed the next day after OutWorldER's flip.

I don't see a win condition to motivate scum!ejji to continue playing but I do see one for scum!Lunar.

[Frogsterking]

Although if ejj is the last scum then I guess they can't win anyway.

TBH I do not see scum!Ejji stalling in this way with his claim, which is exactly what it is.

Ejji can make a play where he makes this claim and no-kills to incriminate OutWorldER, but that type of play may be against the rules here (I don't know how "stalemate" is handled here), and even if he can convince town to execute instead of NLing for mylo, he will be executed the next day after OutWorldER's flip.

I don't see a win condition to motivate scum!ejji to continue playing but I do see one for scum!Lunar.

Yup.

[Frogsterking]

Although if ejj is the last scum then I guess they can't win anyway.

TBH I do not see scum!Ejji stalling in this way with his claim, which is exactly what it is.

Ejji can make a play where he makes this claim and no-kills to incriminate OutWorldER, but that type of play may be against the rules here (I don't know how "stalemate" is handled here), and even if he can convince town to execute instead of NLing for

mylo*

, he will be executed the next day after OutWorldER's flip.

I don't see a win condition to motivate scum!ejji to continue playing but I do see one for scum!Lunar.

Yup.

Because it wouldn't be a real

mylo*

, just suboptimal to execute, town has a million mislynches in this setup.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar's Gamma double vote was weird anyway, so we'll see.

How high would you estimate the potential of OutWorldER being misread in this game?

[Frogsterking]

I thought he was definitely Town, but now I'm not so sure as I can see reasons to believe all of {Lunar, Outworld, ejj} are Town, and Momrangal has distanced from all of them.

How has Lunar's meta differed from the other game(s) you've played with them? Any way that might be AI?

[Frogsterking]

I've been trying to avoid reading off of meta this game but I might crack and take a look at Lunar and OutWorldER.

[Frogsterking]

Luca read EoD1 and beginning of D2 OwER as town telling and Grendel read the aggression of Momrangal's push on OwER from D1 as essentially clearing him.

I feel like OwER didn't try to get any town points from either of his partners executions.

I believe there is more but that's what I can remember off the top of my head.

[Frogsterking]

I haven't tried to meta OwER at all yet. Gamma mentioned they have a tendency to be lim baity.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Personally I feel OER or Bell are the more likely scums there, not BM

why
tbh Titus' reads seem sensible

BM is playing to town meta

I think this is legitimately wrong

What distinguishes the two?

@SirCakez this is to you as well.

In a sentence, town BM is more chaotic. I don't sense the same sort of chaotic town!BM vibe I normally get.

I want to define this better. I kinda see chaos and order as states of being, chaos characterized by a presence of activity, order being characterized by lack of activity. Because in the scenario of the universe, it is in chaos and through the granual heat death of the universe, slowly coming to order. Once everything is still, it could be considered orderly, no?
So, to place BM's play in this framework, as town he is quite active, and his activity set the game into chaos, because he causes things to move. In my one scumgame with him, he had a decent level of activity, but he didn't really do much besides kick up some already displaced dust with DoubtingThomas. And here, he was not a driving force at all for like, the first several days of the game, and his posting was essentially beating the same bush repeatedly regarding wanting people to accompany him to electrical, and we KNOW scum had a room block mechanism and ended up gating that spot, so I feel like it's possible that was a telegraphed attack.

why is murdercatto not tryharding this game?

highly susp

I just had a game where mcat turned on the jets a little later
so like, I think him doing it again is sensible given how that other game worked out

Okay, with a little more experience, here's my take on MCat meta broken down by game.
Mini 2170: active but got miselimmed D1, had a correct SR on Pooky that I didn't see because of an issue I have with reading into wagon direction. Probably could have drove Pooky's lim later on.
Student Council: Was active but not really solvy d1, but I got a gut townvibe from him D1 that led me to pushing him to be in the Council. On D2 he kicked it into gear and drove the game, helping rustle things so town ended up winning.
Micro 977 (VG Metal Covers): got pocketed by Infinity, but iirc pegged JL as scum after being yanked out of the pocket with Infinity's D1 scum flip.

So my sense is his reads get better as the game goes on. There's also haunted village as a game we played but idk his progression there, I just recall he got soulread by infinity

Lol Gamma you're flipping scum in this OutWorldER game aren't you?

[Frogsterking]

Nope

RIP

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Personally I feel OER or Bell are the more likely scums there, not BM

why
tbh Titus' reads seem sensible

BM is playing to town meta

I think this is legitimately wrong

What distinguishes the two?

@SirCakez this is to you as well.

In a sentence, town BM is more chaotic. I don't sense the same sort of chaotic town!BM vibe I normally get.

I want to define this better. I kinda see chaos and order as states of being, chaos characterized by a presence of activity, order being characterized by lack of activity. Because in the scenario of the universe, it is in chaos and through the granual heat death of the universe, slowly coming to order. Once everything is still, it could be considered orderly, no?
So, to place BM's play in this framework, as town he is quite active, and his activity set the game into chaos, because he causes things to move. In my one scumgame with him, he had a decent level of activity, but he didn't really do much besides kick up some already displaced dust with DoubtingThomas. And here, he was not a driving force at all for like, the first several days of the game, and his posting was essentially beating the same bush repeatedly regarding wanting people to accompany him to electrical, and we KNOW scum had a room block mechanism and ended up gating that spot, so I feel like it's possible that was a telegraphed attack.

why is murdercatto not tryharding this game?

highly susp

I just had a game where mcat turned on the jets a little later
so like, I think him doing it again is sensible given how that other game worked out

Okay, with a little more experience, here's my take on MCat meta broken down by game.
Mini 2170: active but got miselimmed D1, had a correct SR on Pooky that I didn't see because of an issue I have with reading into wagon direction. Probably could have drove Pooky's lim later on.
Student Council: Was active but not really solvy d1, but I got a gut townvibe from him D1 that led me to pushing him to be in the Council. On D2 he kicked it into gear and drove the game, helping rustle things so town ended up winning.
Micro 977 (VG Metal Covers): got pocketed by Infinity, but iirc pegged JL as scum after being yanked out of the pocket with Infinity's D1 scum flip.

So my sense is his reads get better as the game goes on. There's also haunted village as a game we played but idk his progression there, I just recall he got soulread by infinity

Lol Gamma you're flipping scum in this OutWorldER game aren't you?

Nope

RIP

That's a super interesting take; equating activity with chaos vs death of all things with order, in my mind I'm trying to rationalize it with OCEAN. One of the few downsides of conscientiousness is that it can come off as "stuffy", individuals very high in conscientiousness come off as reliable, but not necessarily fun to be around.

One of many upsides of being high in conscientiousness is considered the ability to consistently output a high amount of work. Maybe it's just based on socio-cultural values and perception though, and individuals who are very low in conscientiousness are consistently putting in work of a chaotic nature which is less valued by an industrialized society.

[Frogsterking]

I'm a Vanilla Town. Gamma claims next.


Frogster there is so much stuff that spews me as Town, I literally cannot comprehend how you have not figured it out yet.

Lunar, if Gamma is scum, then Ejji is town, and Ejji being town means Gamma could not have completed a night kill.

[Frogsterking]

I'm a Vanilla Town. Gamma claims next.


Frogster there is so much stuff that spews me as Town, I literally cannot comprehend how you have not figured it out yet.

Lunar, if Gamma is scum, then Ejji is town, and Ejji being town means Gamma could not have completed a night kill.

Seriously VOTE: Lunar

[Frogsterking]

I'm glad that you're paying attention now. In this game state being Townie is not enough to be obv Townie, there is a scum left who has faked town tells to stay alive.

UNVOTE: Lunar

I'm in the process of meta diving OutWorldER's games.

[Frogsterking]

I'm 10 pages into OutWorldER's only completed scum game and I can feel myself becoming extremely suspicious.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Battle Mage is here too he knows.

but real talk at worst I hammered a VT who was playing anti-town and at best we caught scum.

Nope please do not minimize your quickhammer. The bad thing about them is that they mess up the normal flow of games/wagons and cut off our discussion time, which is especially important in this type of game where there wasn't much content to go off of

I fucking love it. Lock towning Outer, lol

Non lmh - Probably scum, would vig as useless if not scum. This is where I would push if I were queen.
benhalkum - hopefully scum
Battle Mage - Lean town
OutWorldER - Lean town, was prob town before the hammer. I can see it coming from town.
hessian - VLA can't read.
wiyvern - Holiday can't read
NoPowerOverMe - Lean town, the fight with Ben could be S v S distancing though.
Rannygazoo - I think I have said enough here. Lean scum.
superbowl9 - I want to say town but everytime I do, my gut cringes.
Titus - Please don't shoot me.
Flavor Leaf - Gambiter. Plays an aloof style. Wait and see.
Alchemist21 - Solid town
Andresvmb - Gtmh town. Holiday lack of posting though.

Yikes you guys take a look at this character. I don't know how the rest of this game goes but I know OutWorldER rolled scum because I can see the scum PT.

[Frogsterking]

Okay I've seen enough

VOTE: OutWorldER

[Frogsterking]

I think OutWorldER is not thinking far enough ahead to realize they're within the PoE which is why they seem so calm.

I think the setup is balanced around Ejji being a potential negative utility as a role stopper because they can block the traffic cop on accident, and the traffic cop is unreliable as well because of the hood.

I think Momrangel may have used OutWorldER's role in her claim (OutWorldER is scum motion sensor.)

Luca and Ejji have town told a lot more than OutWorldER.

If OutWorldER is a miselim and doesn't like that then he can try posting more than the moderators IMO.

OutWorldER's main strategy in his only scum game was lurking out the game, and everything he's said and done in this game was well within his scum range. WELL within his scum range.

I haven't looked at all of his town games yet, but the big theme game I read he was obv towning.

[Frogsterking]

I don't think there's anything wrong with executing OutWorldER, Ejji can rolestop Lunar tonight if it's wrong.

[Frogsterking]

I'm likely dead tonight so the three people not voting can sheep my read and if it's wrong you can blame me and you get another chance tomorrow with more info.

[Frogsterking]

@mod

I think there was a miscount, Ejji is voting OwER not Joquiza.

VOTE: ower

not set. Just placing this where I think it’ll hit

ty -GB

[Frogsterking]

i'm scum despite the fact that mom pushed me super hard D1 and I've been on Bugs since D1?

like, hello???

This is exactly how I expected you to respond now that I cheated and read your scum meta.

[Frogsterking]

i'm scum despite the fact that mom pushed me super hard D1 and I've been on Bugs since D1?

like, hello???

OutWorldER's main strategy in his only scum game was lurking out the game, and everything he's said and done in this game was well within his scum range. WELL within his scum range..

like, I don't recall bussing my partner since D1 in my only scum game???

If OutWorldER is a miselim and doesn't like that then he can try posting more than the moderators IMO.

why are you such a prick?

I like how you're invisible for 95% of the game with 0 contribution, and less than 5 minutes after I FoS you, you pop in with four rhetorical questions, two with triple question marks no less.

You did the same thing D1 once Amelie mentioned you:

I'm interested in what you make of the pig and outworldER slots, Amelie. I know there is not as much to go on; but can you extract any information on their alignment?

AGamblingPig seems to really like narrating events is what I gather from that.
OutWorldER confuses me.

The answer to your question is no I really don't have any idea how to read these two players.

What do you find confusing about me?

Strange timing but I'll reply in a bit. On the phone right now.

You're clearly keeping an eye out in the thread and are hyper-conscious of being mentioned. What is it that you've been thinking that you're unwilling to share without being mentioned?

then fucking counter the point.

in what world does scum!me push my partner super hard since D1?

There is no point to counter, just a typical response of an overly emotionally-reactive lurker. Ah, so this is what you expected to carry you through 3-way? Sorry, even Lunar has town told mo

[Frogsterking]

OutWorldER are you really expecting:

1) the moderate distancing from your team to carry you through the three way all alone?

2) your chosen line of questioning to discourage me from my FoS on you?

Look at what I did to the Lunar slot this game. Lunar has posted three times as much as you and town told more than you. What makes you think you're any more entitled to be town read than them?

Ejji has posted far more and town told more as well in less than half the time.

I just spent hours reading two of your town games and your only completed scum game, and I know how you won that game, I saw that you lurked it out while the village mishammered each other. Do you really expect the same thing to happen here?

I think that you're still here and you're hiding because you're getting scared now, which you should be.

[Frogsterking]

@All

Please hammer this one this guy is scum and he knows I know. This is not OutWorldER's town game.

@Jo

@Gamma

@Luca

You guys aren't voting anyone and he is e-2, I'm prob dying tonight, if I'm wrong you get another chance tomorrow with more info.

[Frogsterking]

"0 contribution" "There is no point to counter" what a fucking joke. instead of addressing any of the reasons I could not possibly be scum here you instead throw a vague dismissal of everything and push me with garbage meta that doesn't remotely match this game?

you read Among Us mafia so you should be aware that I'm also a person very conscientious of the game-state and that my first scum game was with FL who also taught me to be conscientious of the game-state? so explain why the fuck I'd be taking every action possible in this game that puts my hypothetical team in horrible situations? the answer is that i'm town.

Your ignoring sensible associative reasons to essentially push a policy elim against me.

also lol at "moderate distancing" I literally called Bugs the fuck out on D1? And constantly pushed for their elim on D2? Your downplaying my actions to improve your narrative.

The fact is, I should not be in this PoE. It literally just comes down to Eiji or Lunar and I've made clear I think Eiji is the more likely scum.

*D2 and D3

Mhm here come the big posts with the instantaneous reaction time now that the game is over for you.

You're describing this case like you've been rehearsing it in your mind, probably what you were doing while reading through the TvT conflicts instead of posting.

You've been following the game state so you know how well attacking my reasoning worked out for Lunar, what makes you think it will work for you?

[Frogsterking]

alright yeah just keep ignoring/dismissing me and continue to engage in bad faith

fun and not-aggravating in the slightest.

I scum read this post based on tone, sarcasm and frustration are easy to fake, and Lunar sounds a lot more genuine than you.

[Frogsterking]

also lol at "moderate distancing" I literally called Bugs the fuck out on D1? And constantly pushed for their elim on D2? Your downplaying my actions to improve your narrative.

The fact is, I should not be in this PoE. It literally just comes down to Eiji or Lunar and I've made clear I think Eiji is the more likely scum.

Why the panic then? Town still gets enough miselims for them both.

[Frogsterking]

because I know my PM is green

and I think it's the duty of a town player to defend confirmed greens even in situations like this where there is (most likely) not a lot of negative for miselim at this point.

because why waste a lim when we can get scum now?

What is your plan once both Ejji and Lunar flip town?

[Frogsterking]

because I know my PM is green

and I think it's the duty of a town player to defend confirmed greens even in situations like this where there is (most likely) not a lot of negative for miselim at this point.

because why waste a lim when we can get scum now?

What is your plan once both Ejji and Lunar flip town?

Forcing Jo to choose between you and Luca in the three way, where you both had "bussed" Bugs and Mom, but more tin foil had built up over Luca?

Hmm that sounds fair enough actually. Sorry I screwed your plan over..

[Frogsterking]

Actually this scenario does remind me a bit of Lunar's scum game where they bussed their partner despite the fact that doing so would inevitably lead to their loss.

That's my current theory on the game state. I think OutWorldER's plan was fine before they knew about the rolestopper, because he can lurk to a three way with you and Jo, Jo gets the hammer and TRs you both, but your name has been on the wagon already by two confirmed townies, and there is more tinfoil built up about you bussing Bugs than OutWorldER. All he had to do to reach that point was lurk it out today and tomorrow.

Because the last PR is a rolestopper OutWorldER must be able to push the Ejji lunch through today which makes his life more complicated (and probably why he's still voting Ejji despite being hyper-aware of the game state.)

I think if this is all accurate then rolestopper might have been a bit too much for town, role blocker probably would have been more fair.

[Frogsterking]

Oh damn. I was thinking role blocker resolved after night kills and role stopper resolved before.

I guess it could not technically be over in case the last scum is a strongman or role stopper and can self target and multitask with the night kill.

I think OutWorldER is the last one though.

[Frogsterking]

Luca would you ever consider playing the way you did here as scum!Luca?

Like in the maf pt D1 just go "fuck it guys I'm pushing Bugs this game get ready.."

And PEdit: Yes he most definitely could as far as mechanics go I think it works and would be balanced setup wise, based on dayplay I think it's unlikely.

[Frogsterking]

I think if Ejji gets killed that Joq and Lunar are more likely to execute Gamma than you.

Joq was on record last saying he townread myself, Luca and OutWorldER.

[Frogsterking]

Interesting. I'm tempted to unvote, Gamma's meta and the likelihood of a Strongman or rolestopper can be evaluated. I think there are a few days left?

[Frogsterking]

There's still a whole week left, so no need to rush.

UNVOTE: OutWorldER

For the record I think OutWorldER's reaction was bad, my scum read on them definitely strengthened based on reading their scum game, some of their town games, and their reaction to my push tonight.

I think Lunar and Ejji were town telling today, more so Ejji.

[Frogsterking]

I think Gamma also town told today, along with Lunar, Ejji town told a lot though today I think.

OutWorldER continuing to lurk until mentioned and push Ejji is not a good look IMO.

[Frogsterking]

Luca would you ever consider playing the way you did here as scum!Luca?

Like in the maf pt D1 just go "fuck it guys I'm pushing Bugs this game get ready.."

And PEdit: Yes he most definitely could as far as mechanics go I think it works and would be balanced setup wise, based on dayplay I think it's unlikely.

I'd probably distance but not actively bus.

I believe this.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar if you're a third party that wins the game by voting players who have no chance of being scum FYPOV, then keep going because you're doing a great job.

[Frogsterking]

Sounds pretty honest.

[Frogsterking]

Sounds pretty honest.

Sounds.

also lol at "moderate distancing" I literally called Bugs the fuck out on D1? And constantly pushed for their elim on D2? Your downplaying my actions to improve your narrative.

The fact is, I should not be in this PoE. It literally just comes down to Eiji or Lunar and I've made clear I think Eiji is the more likely scum.

So how would you have approached the game differently as scum!OutWorldER?

[Frogsterking]

I see four ways to move the game forward fmpov; 1) finish doing meta on OutWorldER because I'm working with a really small sample size, 2) look at the relative strength of the last like 40 completed normals, 3) double check the VCA because it appears that both Luca and OutWorldER believe the votes from D1 are invalidating Lunar as a probable scum buddy, and 4) use OCEAN to compare between Gamma and Ejji to see mainly if Ejji's perception of the game state from yesterday to today is believable or not. I'm going to do whichever one I feel like when I wake up in a few hours.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking

I'll double vote you today, I've been fairly distracted and haven't had time to review.

One thing I will say is that a pure town hood with a neapolitan, a roleblocker, and a bodyguard seems kind of cracked to me. I really would not put that in a setup myself, I don't really see a third scum role that could balance that well unless it's like a strongman that can get fake cleared, but that would be pretty annoying in the same way tracker/ninja in same setup would be. Also if the hood is pure that means two mafs outside the hood, aka an extra chance for the T.A. to get a red check. Neapolitan already strong af. Idk this setup is seeming weird to me.

ejj's claim can potentially establish a CC here by roleblocking the night kill so I think we lynch outside, I wouldn't immediately rule out that it's some kinda gambit (in one of my recently completed scumgames, our last maf just claimed like vengeful basically which put him in eventual autoloss, he did it cuz we were getting dumpstered so he just wanted to see how long he could last.) So like lynch ejj eventually but given we should have at least 3 shots here we can lynch outside first.

I don't think maf NKing hurts us at all, I think in that case we just lynch whoever ejj roleblocked and like keep going if they flip town, with the understanding that ejj has to find scum before lylo/mylo or else he eats rope.

Lmk if I'm thinking about it right, seems to me we're in a very strong position mechanically.

Ejji's most recent claim that he'll night block one of Luca/OutWorldER is concerning to me. That sounds like a way out for scum in his spot. If he blocks Luca and there's no kill I'd be more inclined to believe Ejji is wifoming.

Ejji's OCEAN also is 100% geared toward seeing how long they can last in this situation (unless he gets bored.) Low neuroticism, super low agreeableness and conscientiousness is a perfect temperament for this kind of action.

I'm inclined to agree with Gamma that Lunar looks like they're flailing now.

At the same time, OutWorldER's play is imitating his scum game. Going through his meta made me very suspicious.

I think a town win from this position isn't improbable, but sorting through the last three spots is tricky FMPOV.

[Frogsterking]

@ower, to make this clear, you fully understand that my role is self resolving and that if I’m town, getting me lynched today is pretty much the only way to make scum win?
and IF I’m scum, I basically committed suicide a while ago as there are more than enough mis-lynches left to lynch me anyway...

yet you chose to just ignore all of that and keep pushing me for interactions?

....good tone or not, this is just a scum-claim lol

At least you have a chance at flipping scum from his point of view, Lunar is literally STILL voting conftown.

[Frogsterking]

@ower, to make this clear, you fully understand that my role is self resolving and that if I’m town, getting me lynched today is pretty much the only way to make scum win?
and IF I’m scum, I basically committed suicide a while ago as there are more than enough mis-lynches left to lynch me anyway...

yet you chose to just ignore all of that and keep pushing me for interactions?

....good tone or not, this is just a scum-claim lol

At least you have a chance at flipping scum from his point of view, Lunar is literally STILL voting conftown.

Not true.

In order for joquiza to be scum, Galron needed to be lying about his report. Your slot is increasingly flailing FMPOV, I don't think your alleged interpretation of this game state is believable.

Random thought but I wonder if Momrangal was Mafia Informed of a Neapolitan. That might explain why she claimed PR in response to Grendel.

Did Galron claim his exact role before D2 or just say he had a green check? @hood

Before D2, I believe Galron was an unclaimed investigative, and he outed his full role maybe N3? So your theory makes sense.

It could be a bit of a stretch, but going off of your same theory, maybe Bugs was covering for Lunar D1 by saying that Lunar had softed TPR.

[Frogsterking]

@mod

Lunar is voting OWER not joquiza:

VOTE: OWER

[Frogsterking]

@ower, to make this clear, you fully understand that my role is self resolving and that if I’m town, getting me lynched today is pretty much the only way to make scum win?
and IF I’m scum, I basically committed suicide a while ago as there are more than enough mis-lynches left to lynch me anyway...

yet you chose to just ignore all of that and keep pushing me for interactions?

....good tone or not, this is just a scum-claim lol

At least you have a chance at flipping scum from his point of view, Lunar is literally STILL voting conftown.

Not true.

Okay I see now.

[Frogsterking]

I'm here, something really disruptive happened irl, thank you for hammering to try and keep me in the game, I can play D5 if this isn't the end. With Ejji going on Lunar I think this is the best play and hopefully is correct.

[Frogsterking]

bah