Mini 1836: Space Mafia (Game Over)

[Toto]

vote: toto

such a mischevious little

puppy

My avatar is a cat.

VOTE: A Simple Plan

For being too lazy to come up with a complicated plan.

[Toto]

Are we out of RVS already?

[Toto]

I guess it did not matter that much. Except now it kind of does since It seems I'm at L-2. I was asking since I did not want to keep my vote on a non-serious target if we were being serious.

UNVOTE:

[Toto]

What makes you think I think that? I did not say that.

[Toto]

@TwoFace: My bad. This is my first non-newbie game and my second game in total.

@Grapes: serious = non-random

[Toto]

@Grapes: I imagine most people base their non-random votes on their reads and their own role. Basically, I think it depends on what information they have, or think they have, and what they are trying to achieve.

For example, you seem to have non-randomly voted me after I asked if RVS was over.

Maybe you did that because town!you read that as a suspicious question from newbscum, and wanted to pressure me to get more hypothetical damming evidence.

Also, if, hypothetically, you were scum, you could have read that as a lost newbtown, easy lynch bait, and pressure me to get me myslynched.

There could have been other reasons, that I'm not aware of yet, of why you did it.

I don't have a strong opinion on which is more likely at this point. That's why I'm reading you as null, same as pretty much everyone else so far, and not non-randomly voting yet.

I hope that answers your question.

[Toto]

Did you get coached...? This doesn't really match up with your previous posts

I find this flattering But I didn't get coached.

If you want to double check how newb/stupid I can be, you can check how I got mislynched in D1 in my first game. That's the only evidence I can offer.

We can also keep going and make me getting mislynched on D1 a personal goal.

[Toto]

If somebody coached him to do that then they suck. I'm going to wait for a VC before I vote but yeesh this game has a weird start. Maria and toto have both pinged me out. Dunn's thing about zach was stupid. I like getting early townreads but you guys are making it impossible.

I thought the same. But then I optimistically took it as a compliment.

[Toto]

@Toto I asked if you had any questions for me. Did you ignore me or do you not have any?

I believe ignoring you, or not having any questions, are not the only two options here. Again, I find the way you ask questions a bit misleading.

I did not ignore you, since had not read your post.
I also didn't think of anything to ask you yet, or at least how to ask it.

But since you are asking me this now. What do you think I should be asking you?

[Toto]

@toto. Outside this site how many games have you played? Where else have you played? If this is your first site, why did you decide to play here.

I played a live game with friends about two weeks ago for the first time, then I looked on Google and found epicmafia, played one game there which seemed too confusing (too many weird roles), and then found this site and like very much it so far!

[Toto]

@Dunn, why do you think Grapes is town?

@Grapes. Not sure why I would ask that, I mean, I explained why I think you are voting me before but I'm not sure how that question would help me get more clarity than that. It's not like you are going to tell me you are scum if you are, and not sure I should believe you more because you say you are town.

If you feel you need to answer it though, by all means, go ahead.

Adding this section after I tried to post:

@itlepip: Of course,

TwoFace is being TwoFaced. He seems to like me for some reason. Maybe I rolled heads, or something. His persona seems to be inline with his behaviors. He does seem to ask probing questions to Grapes. I'm not sure what that means, but since he is defending me I feel emotionally inclined to townread him a little bit.

Dunn seems to agree with Grapes and somewhat defensive of her. Not sure why she is reading her town so fast, therefore my question above.

Grapes seems to be attacking me, and I don't like the way she is doing that. I understand the intent of townsfolk asking trick questions to make scum slip but I actually think it's a bad strategy for town at this stage. Scum will eventually slip (logically) because they have no choice. But it is too early in the game for that to work, and I think the strategy is more likely to get us a mislynch at this stage of the game. That is something scum would benefit from so I guess I should read her a bit scummy. I'm not sure how much of my emotions are influencing this decision since she kind of started the attack.

So I guess I'll go with this for now: VOTE: Grapes

For the rest, I don't have anything useful so far.

What do you think?

[Toto]

First off I don't think you should let twoface off the hook for 'playing to a persona' or whatever.

Yeah, I can see how he could use his persona to his advantage if he were scum. I'm not sure if that helps us at this stage.

The grapes read is weird for similar reasons to why what Maria said is weird. Scum really don't have to slip, and honestly in most games they aren't going to.

I can see how that could be true, see my explanation below to what I was trying to say, though.

Second why is it too early to get scum to slip, why do you think Grapes couldn't actually be scumreading you, and why is it more likely to lead to a ML than whatever you think we should do right now?

My thinking was the following:

trickier questions + less information => more false reads
more false reads => more mislynches
more mislynches => good for scum

Also, I did not say it's impossible Grapes is just trying to scumread me. In fact, I did brought it up as a possible explanation for her voting me. You didn't read that?

All I'm saying here is that her behavior is better for scum at this point so we need to get this sorted out.

[Toto]

Dunn seems to agree with Grapes and somewhat defensive of her. Not sure why she is reading her town so fast, therefore my question above.

Please point out where I am defensive of Grapes and "agree with them"

You seem to agree I'm scum. I can not find any reference to a post where you say 'I agree with you Grapes' if that's what you mean.

On the defending, I apologize because I thought I remembered something about this, but it must have been the interaction about grapes in space.

Also, can you answer my question, why do you think Grapes is town?

[Toto]

Wait what am I reading

Alos I did it to make toto not feel pressuered by your vote so he could read normally and not feel rushed some people don't feel that way with votes but I don't know who that is.

I'm not sure what that means, but since he is defending me I feel emotionally inclined to townread him a little bit.

Scum will eventually slip (logically) because they have no choice. But it is too early in the game for that to work, and I think the strategy is more likely to get us a mislynch at this stage of the game. That is something scum would benefit from so I guess I should read her a bit scummy.

I don't follow.

They're all dumb things to have said

Maria is trying to make sure toto doesn't feel pressured
Toto is emotionally inclined to townread someone who defended them
Toto thinks scum "eventually slip (logically)" in every game

Thanks for the honesty. I appreciate the feeeback. I understand that is dumb to town read
Someone based on emotions. This is why I pointed it out.

I still think the statement about how scum needs to make logical fallacies later in the game as we get more information has some footing. But take it with a grain of salt these are just my thoughts so far after only playing one full day.

[Toto]

(Im writing from my phone)

@mod: I will probably be without coverage over the weekend.

[Toto]

Dunn seems to agree with Grapes and somewhat defensive of her. Not sure why she is reading her town so fast, therefore my question above.

Please point out where I am defensive of Grapes and "agree with them"

You seem to agree I'm scum. I can not find any reference to a post where you say 'I agree with you Grapes' if that's what you mean.

On the defending, I apologize because I thought I remembered something about this, but it must have been the interaction about grapes in space.

Also, can you answer my question, why do you think Grapes is town?

I think you're scummy. You'll note that you haven't even been taking up my primary attention

Your only basis for seeing a connection between me and grapes is that we both think you're scummy on page 7

I'm townreading Grapes because I've played with them where they were mafia before and I think they're town so far into this

Yeah. I should have said it was not a strong signal. Ill try to include how confident I am about these things in the future.

It just seemed odd you were townreading them so fast. I mean. They must have done something townlike to make her go from neutral to town in your view, right? Or in other words, does lack of mafia tells in 7 pages means town or neutral?

[Toto]

I still think the statement about how scum needs to make logical fallacies later in the game as we get more information has some footing.

Have you ever played as scum before?

I've only played one other game and I'm not supposed to talk about it.

[Toto]

It just seemed odd you were townreading them so fast. I mean. They must have done something townlike to make her go from neutral to town in your view, right? Or in other words, does lack of mafia tells in 7 pages means town or neutral?

I don't townread people unless I think they're town
I don't try to lynch people unless I think they're mafia
If They're neutral I'd still try to switch the vote to someone I scumread

I don't consider my reads to have formed too fast

Ok,

I'll try to ask this in a different way then,

I'm not asking you lynch anyone, or change your read or vote. I honestly want to understand what is it that made you read Grapes as town. We have different point of views on them and maybe I'm missing something, and I'd like to adjust my reads based on that.

You said you have seen them play as >>mafia<< before, and they are behaving as >>town<< so far.

I'm sorry if you find me too picky here. But this statement doesn't make too much sense to me.

My interpretation is that you said: "I've seen grapes play as mafia before [and I don't see their scumtells so far], therefore I'm reading them as town".

But is that the right conclusion? Why not just neutral? what makes them different from your other neutral reads?

[Toto]

Dunnstral - I feel that they might be green. reds would been much less likely to step in on the color thing :3
Yeah there my Green pick of the week, Solid content. taking the time to explain things all good from them. can't see a Red!Motivation

I find this rather confusing. Specially since Dunn still doesn't answer my questions.

Why would Scum be less likely to step on the color thing? Seems to me like the small kind of thing they would pick up to get a mislynch.
Where is Dunn being nice and patient? SOLID content? WTF?

I don't have good feelings about this.

[Toto]

Dunnstral - I feel that they might be green. reds would been much less likely to step in on the color thing :3
Yeah there my Green pick of the week, Solid content. taking the time to explain things all good from them. can't see a Red!Motivation

I find this rather confusing. Specially since Dunn still doesn't answer my questions.

Why would Scum be less likely to step on the color thing? Seems to me like the small kind of thing they would pick up to get a mislynch.
Where is Dunn being nice and patient? SOLID content? WTF?

I don't have good feelings about this.

Im not sure what this question thing your talking about is, and I can't see scum! wanting to prevent the miss lynch on myself partially as its one of those things scum can easily wash their hands of after and he is vocal which is good.

(re-reading)

[Toto]

What question are you talking about

286

[Toto]

What is your issue with Dunn's content outside of him not answering your question?

It is mostly calling things dumb and giving out read lists without explaining why. I'm not saying is particularly AI but I would not call it "solid".

[Toto]

What question are you talking about

286

Yeah I don't find missing question TOO scummy unless asked again as in; you point out you didn't answer this question and type it out again. I find your posts sorta tricky to read, sorry.

Dunn just answered it. They were at the end of the post.

[Toto]

Dunnstral - I feel that they might be green. reds would been much less likely to step in on the color thing :3

Ok, I think I got this now. You meant that even though he was the one that noticed the color thing did not use it and also dismissed it? Where did they step in?

(I also find your post very hard to read BTW)

[Toto]

@Dunn + Naomi
Thanks for your answers and clarifications.

@Maria: Can you elaborate on your town read on Naomi?

[Toto]

Ok, I think I got a townish read on a few people now:

Dunn: the early town read on grapes feels authentic to me now. I'm not sure I would have been able to come up with that explanation as scum.
Grapes: Mainly because of the above.
X: He is been consistently town-like.

Mixed feelings:

Naomi: the red-blue thing is a bit messy. I can see the mistake happen both ways. I can even see it happen on purpose as scum, or even as town. Also the fact that my main town read (X) is voting her is not helping. She is defending Dunn, which is good. Dunn is defending her which is good. I don't think they are in the same team if one of them is scum.

Massive: the main case against him is to have picked up a small thing and made it bigger than it is. I could see me falling for the same thing as town.

2-face. Seems to be selling my own newbiness too hard (sorry, buddy).

The rest are neutral for me.

X, why are you voting Naomi?

For now I don't have a strong scum read on anyone. I'm going to unvote, and see how this develops.

UNVOTE: Grapes

[Toto]

Btw I'm not sure you're reading my posts closely or not but I actually haven't attempted to figure out if your play strikes me as a true newbie or not. I think you just misunderstood the discussion nos and I had about the usefulness of my questions to you.

Ok, I will re-read that later.

[Toto]

Hello,

I'm having a hard time following the conversation here. I will try to catch up today or tomorrow and post my thoughts. So far I agree with itlepip and others on Zach's filler posts. Seems like a scummy thing to cloud the conversation, but I don't know if he always just behaves like this.

[Toto]

VOTE: dunn

That early town read on grapes keeps nagging at me too. still feels like knowledge gap.

[Toto]

Yeah. I changed my mind.

[Toto]

To be honest I havent catched up. But my only two reads
Are these: grapes is probably town because either you truly townread her or you KNOW she is town. The second is that I think the latter is more likely after all. Plus I like her thinking on the color thing and I trust her now.

did I miss anything important?

[Toto]

The other option on the read thing is that you are scumpartners in which case my vote still makes sense

[Toto]

I'm closest to lynch because there's 2 scum on me

Would that be me or 2-face? You already established Zach is scum and Grapes is town after a few pages of content.

[Toto]

You (I established that too)

You're dumb

[Toto]

You (I established that too)

You're dumb

I agree with your other 3 though

[Toto]

Other 3 what

Reads: town!grapes town/not-scum!2face and probably-scum!zach

[Toto]

So why are you voting me, the counter wagon to Zach?

Because Zach is all over the place. So I don't have as strong as a read, it's mostly a gut feeling. With you is more of a logical deduction.

emotions vs logic. I'm trying to reconcile the two.

In any case, you seem to be convinced of each other scumminess, and you seem to know each other. I'd wager at least one of you is right.

[Toto]

I'd like to hear why Dunn is town from itlepip too.

[Toto]

Nevermind, I think he has been consistent about his Dunn read. I'll let him explain, though.

If we are not going to lynch Zach or Dunn I suggest lynching Naomi. It is not because I think she is particularly scum. I find her posts too long and run out of energy to read them mid way so I still have mixed-feelings about her.

My main problem with Naomi is the following: she is the reason the town is divided. There seems to be a group that thinks Naomi is scum because of the red-blue thing. There is another group that thinks that those that think so must be scum. I say let's flip her and work it backwards from there, at least we can put the discussion at rest and move on and try to get some consensus.

[Toto]

the quoted post from toto is towny imho. it's not often you're going to see scum say "I suggest we lynch X and I don't really think she's that scummy"

I disagree, Pantherino. all he's doing is attempting to absolve himself of responsibility by claiming that he doesn't even SR her.

The objective is to lynch scum here. Ergo if you don't think someone's scum, why are you lynching them? Naomi hasn't been disruptive at all to warrant a lynch. It's not her or my fault that people want to act so wacky about it.

I just don't have a strong scum read on them. I don't have a town read either. The results of the mix-up are not good for town. You could conjecture from there it has a slight scum-lean.

For instance. I think there is a decent chance that the slip was intentional. If it was intentional then I can see Scum using this to create chaos (please bear with me if this doesn't make sense since I don't have as much experience on the consequences of these type of actions, but in this instance it seems to have succeeded)

Under this theory my top scum read (dunn) was another 'catalyst' in the process, which seems to line up with the hypothesis that they (as part of the scum team) planned this in advance.

Alternatively it could have been intentionally done as to catalyzer to find scum, some sort of Slayer Gambit, but I think she would have declared it as such if that was the case already. So I don't think this is likely.

So, lastly, it could be either a scum-mistake or a town-mistake. The type (blue vs green) of mistake does inflate the probability that this was a scum-mistake. I'm not sure if that's enough to compensate the lower chance of Naomi starting a scum to begin with, but it definitely should balance it.

Based on the above the chances of Naomi being scum are higher than average, and if I had not other stronger reads I would definitely lynch her.

[Toto]

there is a reference to a 'slip' here
haven't gotten there in my reading, but if someone accused naomi of calling towns 'blue' being a slip...I'm going to be very interested to read their thought on that and what everyone else chimed in with
or there's something else that I haven't read...but I'm inferring from your blabber

You might want to check Massive. There was a discussion between him, Naomi and Dunn. There was a wagon on naomi, a wagon on massive, and much much more side shows!

[Toto]

Don't we need a claim soon? or is it already too late?

[Toto]

Can someone explain why Naomi finds suspicious the 3vs4 thing but not the red-blue thing? I don't think any of them are

strong

scum tells / slips but maybe I'm missing something.

I actually find Naomi's behavior and latest attack to TwoFace because of the 3vs4 thing somewhat hypocritical.

VOTE: Naomi

[Toto]

I visited Grapes

So I guess it's Grapes or Dunn at this point. Or both.
I don't know why Grapes wouldn't play along if Dunn had indeed visited them. Regardless of Grapes alignment.

Dunn could be scum trying to get their partner more credence once they get themselves lynched.
Dunn could also be WIFOMing to get us to doubt Grapes because of the above.
It is hard to discard for me any of the two options.

One thing seems almost sure based on the above: Dunn is scum.

VOTE: Dunn

[Toto]

I'm happy to have a friendly chat for now. I also want to hear what Grapes and Dunn have to say of all this.

Sacrifice doesn't make sense unless scum knows/hopes we don't have town vigilante. Otherwise Grapes is getting shot tonight anyway.

Our town night killer could be a one-shot but I don't see why they would waste a shot so early, unless maybe it is a JoAT. But then a JoAT would have protected itlepip instead. A known FN is pretty useless anyway.

A scum!grapes sacrifice only makes sense in a world where they expect us to have a one-shot killer. Even then, it seems wasteful.

The sacrifice also makes sense if mafia is the one with the extra killing role. However killing MariaR AND itlepip doesn't make too much sense for mafia since they have been at each other's throats for a while. Maybe this is just Mafia playing wifom with us.

Backtracking, most likely scenario from my PoV is that we have a town killer and Dunn is scum.

However, one thing that bothers me with the above to me is Dunn early interactions today. It seems like a lot of unusual (for the slot) effort for someone who is expecting to get insta-lynched. I'd appreciate thoughts on this.

[Toto]

Roleblock makes some sense. I did not think of that.

[Toto]

Toto is scum for sure in a scenario where Grapes is town. The way hey came in and said that on of us h ad to be scum looked really bad and looked like setting up two mislynches in a row or the vig shot

I was not the only one who didn't think about the roleblock. Without that the only logical conclusion is that you or Grapes is scum. Also not sure why'd you pick on me and not one of the most experienced players that should be more aware of a potential roleblock.

[Toto]

Also not sure why'd you pick on me and not one of the most experienced players that should be more aware of a potential roleblock.

Because you were setting grapes up as well

Who do you think is scum?

If you forget about roleblock and assume one of you must be scum then it is logical that if we lycnhed you and you are not scum then we should ask vig to shoot grapes. Although in hindsight mafia could have a doctor so maybe even this was not smart to say.

To your question. So far I thought you are scum your pr claim and explanation are quite convenient. Ill answer with a question: what are the odds mafia has a roleblocker? This is a honest question btw.

[Toto]

I didn't think of the effects a roleblocker would have or its existence. Im not familiar with all the roles yet. Also I did not 'assume' a doctor I just highlighted it as a possibility now thinking about all other roles I could have missed.

You are changing the meaning of my posts with your rephrased trick questions. Keep digging your hole.

[Toto]

Zach/Panther

[Toto]

Well you asked me IF you are town. That means I need a 180 change. I mostly suspect panther actually. I didn't like all the wagons in the end. We should have lynched you after you claimed. Your role is pretty useless as you can see now. The other wagons did no good and he was the one encouraging back up wagons. Maybe I just dont see the point yet.

As of Zach. If you are town Ill start believing you more in your reads. I would say I don't like his posts but I think its mostly aesthetics.

[Toto]

I think Dunn targeting Grapes for the visit makes sense. In a world where Dunn didn't fake claimed.

I would have targeted MariaR if I was scum and fake-claimed FN. There is a good chance the wagon would have gained some momentum again today and that's when you drop the visit thing. Why change my mind when she wakes up dead?

UNVOTE: Dunn

[Toto]

Dunn, is it possible that you and Zach are both town and you mis-read him?

@Grapes: why is gerry scum only if Dunn is town?

[Toto]

Well you asked me IF you are town. That means I need a 180 change.

I mostly suspect panther actually.

I didn't like all the wagons in the end. We should have lynched you after you claimed. Your role is pretty useless as you can see now. The other wagons did no good and he was the one encouraging back up wagons. Maybe I just dont see the point yet.

As of Zach. If you are town Ill start believing you more in your reads. I would say I don't like his posts but I think its mostly aesthetics.

I need to hear why this is. If it's because I encouraged having something other than a runaway lead wagon on Dunn who I wanted to lynch badly, then I'm going to have to ask why that's suspect worthy and also suggest you not scumread proper play.

I don't like the fact that we get many people to claim and I read somewhere that was bad for town but I guess this is currently the 'correct' way to play so I should not suspect you for that.

To be transparent I was thinking before You+Dunn could be partners, and how you would have a backup wagon once Dunn fake claimed, but given we are assuming Dunn is town then this doesn't make sense. So I guess that's why I had an unconscious finger of suspicion on you.

[Toto]

RE: Zach's post 1799. Looks more like confused town than scum pretending to be confused town if you ask me. I don't know Zach well enough to decide.

As in, mafia would know what decisions were made, and he seems confused about it. But maybe he is just pretending.

[Toto]

If you're scum, or better yet a scum RB. Would scum block and kill the same person is what I'm wondering.

Would this kill a BP? The way itlepip claimed is consistent with a BP.

But then again, kill the PR block the FN seems simpler. Occan's razor.

[Toto]

by BP you mean bulletproof? no i don't believe it would, but doesn't matter because he wasn't bulletproof

It would matter because scum didn't know that for sure. But if that is not possible then this is a moot discussion.

yes I realize it would be simpler, but I still think it's a possibility but only if dunn is scum

Yes if Dunn if scum then this makes sense. But I don't see the point of this discussion either.

[Toto]

Either I was roleblocked or grapes is lying.

Maybe he's telling the truth AND you were roleblocked.

I don't think you are contradicting each other...

[Toto]

17. The Mafia have unrestricted daytalk in this game.

Is there any way we can use this? I expect mafia to be more... coordinated?

[Toto]

17. The Mafia have unrestricted daytalk in this game.

Is there any way we can use this? I expect mafia to be more... coordinated?

What are you getting at here exactly?

Who seems uncoordinated?

I meant more coordinated than usual. I'm just wondering if there any techniques to scumhunt daytalkers.

[Toto]

him immediately putting us into a false dichotomy after I CC'd you doesn't look all that good. I was townreading him most of Day 1.

Seriously, you say this after voting Dunn, no questions asked? How is that any better?

[Toto]

Well it's different for me.

I had the kid lock scum all day 1. And *I* didn't get something that he said he sent to me.

Nobody else really has the same perspective to go at dunn here.

pedit: @toto

It's the same. I was voting him all of day 1 too. We both made the same mistake of not thinking about a potential roleblock and jumped too fast to conclusions.

Why are you not more sympathetic to my line of thought?

VOTE: Grapes

[Toto]

Toto could you go back and answer my question last page please and thanks.

Why am I not more sympathetic to your line of thought? Hmm.

Maybe because, in my world. I'm me. I'm town. I'm the motherfucking that didn't get a PM from the mod.

You're a third party observer ready to fall off both sides of the fence.

That's the difference.

Which question I haven't answered?

I'm the guy that sees that you vote Dunn after he said he visited you. My only (uninformed) conclusion is that one of you is lying so one of you must be scum. Why is that so different? and why is that hard to see? three people posted similar thoughts after me.

If scum really role-blocked Dunn they don't need to send me to explain town the whole situation. They would just wait and be happy for us to kill each other.

[Toto]

I wanna know why you decided to quote the OP and say you expected mafia to be more coordinated. At a time when we were doing a bunch of rambunctious things, I thought you may have been referring to specific reads with that. Go more into why your expectations aren't being met.

I was reading the rules again to check if I could find anything interesting about whether it is likely that we have a roleblocker or not, and stumbled on that. I was brainstorming and looking mostly for advice. I already explained this. Also I wanted to highlight it in case someone missed it. I haven't developed any reads because of it. I need to re-read the game with that knowledge and see if I find something to report.

But now that you understand a roleblocker existing would create a situation where we could both be telling the truth; you're still trying to push that one of us is scum. And my push on dunn comes from a place of already knowing my own alignment. Your voting him after I voted him shadowed that too great an extent. I understand that you may have pushed him a bit yesterday, but it wasn't anywhere near as loud as I did.

I'm pushing you now because I don't believe that you really doubt my reasoning. If you made the same mistake I did, it makes no sense that you doubt my intentions, specially since you say you were town-reading me. I think you are just trying to doubcast me.

[Toto]

I was reading the rules again to check if I could find anything interesting about whether it is likely that we have a roleblocker or not

BTW, since mafia already has the daytalk boost I expect them to have less PR or we more PR.

[Toto]

These two paragraphs sound like they came from two completely different people, with completely different experience levels.

If you are referring to the use of the term doubt-casting I learned that term very recently. I'm not allowed to give you a reference.

[Toto]

@Toto
I doubt your reasoning now because I've broken out of my confbias tunnel on dunn for the time being. My "mistake" was being caught up in wanting to be right on the thing I stood for the most this game. And thinking that dunn was being a cheeky scumfuck. I thought I had him.

Yours was one of opportunity and zero paranoia.

Yeah.. very different.

Backtracking, most likely scenario from my PoV is that we have a town killer and Dunn is scum.

One thing seems almost sure based on the above: Dunn is scum.

VOTE: Dunn

[Toto]

Grapes. I believe its a roleblocker. given both your reactions. but if that wasn't a thing then I'd go with You being Red! its far more likely you lied about not getting his pm than him making that fake claim.

Why is it not equally likely

that we'd want to trade

, naomi?

Your thought process makes no sense.

explain what this means and what you're saying here

I'm saying why does naomi's mind go straight to grapes scum; when I'M the one CCing Dunn's claim to have visited me. Who has less reason to lie there?

How is this a slip booger brain? He's asking me a fucking question.

Your explanation doesn't include the word trading. Where is the trading happening?

[Toto]

I would guess the mafia team is Dunn/Xk/grapes

Grapes just wanted to trade with Dunn who is a mafia PR.

Grapes as scum only makes sense if Dunn is also scum.

If Dunn and Xk are scum then it is very likely that grapes/naomi is also scum.

So Im gonna go ahead and VOTE: Dunn which seems more rational and informative according to the above

[Toto]

Which part would you like me to clarify ?

[Toto]

...What?
So you're saying both me and grapes are scum, and that I'm a mafia pr, and that grapes is trying to get themself lynched to save me?

First of all, where does me being a mafia pr come from? Like, why in your scenario can't I be a goon
Second of all, you kind of just say I'm scum with grapes with literally no evidence
AND what you're saying doesn't match up. Where does grapes try to save me? Did you forget that they tunneled me all day long AND said they didn't receive my message? In addition to their lame push day 1

Please elaborate on how you reached these conclusions.

Grapes is acting scummy. The problem is scum grapes only makes sense if you are also scum. As Xk just pointed out, it doesn't make sense for scum!grapes to trade with town!dunn.

If you are scum, you are in a tricky situation on D2 start as you need to come up with someone to have visited. It is very likely you would end up lynched today. So trade here means you still lose 1 scum, but the other one gets some significant towncred. This makes even more sense if one of you is a mafia PR, because there is a chance you can trade the PR for a goon.

This by itself doesn't look likely but when combined with Grapes' comment to Naomi about you wanting to 'trade' it starts gain some momentum.

You are right about Grapes tunneling you. It does debilitate my case. I'm assuming bussing is a common practice here but I don't have enough examples to decide whether this particular instance could be bussing or grapes!town tunneling someone.

First: YOu need to explain the part where you say I'm scum with Xkfyu
SEcond: Explain the grapes/naomi part and how it's connected to me and Xkyfu

If You and Grapes are scum, then Xk would be in the top of my list of potential 3rd member of the team. He has been involved in the Grapes/Dunn discussion without taking any sides. He is tunneling Gerry and has suggested the Vig should shoot him (unconditionally), which seems like setting up a night-kill. Gerry is acting weird but I can see how, if town, he would be a prime target for scum.

Lastly, if you and Grapes are scum, then he made a comment about how me + naomi + grapes look towny because we were voting you before. It would have been a good opportunity for Scum to insert his partner in a town group. If this is true, since I'm town, that makes grapes/naomi one of his partners. But following the above most likely grapes.

Maybe I'm wrong.

Is Grapes scum?
If Grapes is scum, doesn't that make Dunn scum too?

[Toto]

You're wrong from the very beginning; it's possible for grapes to be scum while I'm town

It's possible for grapes to claim I was roleblocked, too, if I had been lynched. It's not a direct cc so it's not trading 1 for 1

You're wrong about Xk not taking sides - he clearly thinks I'm town

naomi is obvious town so I don't buy into that theory

Wouldn't it be more likely he would just play along and say you visited him if he was mafia and you were town? Mafia could just NK tonight, why go the hard way?

Also, can you explain how your read changed on Grapes?

Why does Naomi being obvious town makes it less likely that scum!xk would try to insert grapes in town group?

[Toto]

I think I get now how town!dunn + scum!grapes could work. UNVOTE: Dunn

Grapes is still my top scum read. I'm also ok with Zach today.

[Toto]

VOTE: Grapes

[Toto]

@Grapes. 1987. Please answer my questions.

@Xkfyu. Why do you find the posts where I bring up the fact that mafia has daytalk in this game scummy? just curious. Or you just want to lynch me for sport?

[Toto]

(I'll admit that you didn't completely ignore it)

This is a serious understatement.

I was looking for something else that would help us decide the matter because it feels we are going in circles, I already explained this here:

I was reading the rules again to check if I could find anything interesting about whether it is likely that we have a roleblocker or not, and stumbled on that. I was brainstorming and looking mostly for advice. I already explained this. Also I wanted to highlight it in case someone missed it. I haven't developed any reads because of it. I need to re-read the game with that knowledge and see if I find something to report.

In fact the very fact Mafia has daytalk should indicate they are less likely (for game balance purposes) to have more PRs, therefore a roleblocker.

How is that not relevant?

[Toto]

his argument about Dunn/grapes are both scum is one I can't see coming from town.

I can see where you are coming, the argument is quite speculative. But I have strong feeling that Grapes is scum, and it didn't fit in my mind how that could work without Dunn being scum too.

[Toto]

In fact the very fact Mafia has daytalk should indicate they are less likely (for game balance purposes) to have more PRs, therefore a roleblocker.

How is that not relevant?

It isn't relevant because that is invalid (or at least incomplete) logic. You can't have any kind of idea as to what PRs Mafia may may not have when the only two roles you have seen are your own, one VT, and one Tracker.

Also, I thought you were inexperienced? How does someone with such little experience feel like they know what a balanced game looks like? Let along know what balance measures were taken based on just 3 town roles.

My thinking was that daytalk is equal to having an encryptor whose role is not affected by death. So its even stronger than that. So thats like having a free extra PR and I imagine it should be balanced out. Im obviously speculating here.

Only the mod can clarify this and not sure if he can speak to this.

I play lots of video games so I understand what game balance is.

[Toto]

@Dunn All Im saying is that there is a chance that mafia has less PRs than usual which in my uninformed opinion makes rb less likely. It could also be balanced by giving town more PR power. Im actually not familiar enough to draw more conclusions than that. But maybe its worth noting and someone with more knowledge can figure something out.

@twoface: ive been reading on diferent mafia roles since my mistake with the roleblocker thing. Im a new player if thats what you doubt.

[Toto]

Hey, not much has happened. Answering to pseudo-prod.

I'm looking at past games to see if I find some statistics about P(roleblocker | encryptor, tracker, vigilante, friendly neighbour)

[Toto]

There is no encryptor; it's mechanical daytalk

This. If there was encryptor we wouldn't be told scum had daytalk.

I understand this. My point was that encryptor = daytalk for the purposes of game balance. So I'm looking at similar setups.

Regarding solving the game, I'm trying to understand if it is likely that we have a roleblocker or not. If we have a roleblocker then I agree that it is likely that they would have roleblocked Dunn, however, again, I think it's important to understand how likely it is that we are in that scenario.

In term of who I find scummy Grapes is still at the top of the list. They keep pushing my lynch without asking questions, answering my questions or trying to game solve.

[Toto]

It is 100% fact this game doesn't have an encryptor

It is also a 100% fact that mafia has daytalk. Since I'm assuming encryptor = daytalk then I don't see a problem with this. Are you trying to say my assumption is wrong? if so, why?

You haven't even seen my conclusion yet and you are already defending the fact that mafia has roleblockers. Why?

[Toto]

It is 100% fact this game doesn't have an encryptor

It is also a 100% fact that mafia has daytalk. Since I'm assuming encryptor = daytalk then I don't see a problem with this. Are you trying to say my assumption is wrong? if so, why?

You haven't even seen my conclusion yet and you are already defending the fact that mafia has roleblockers. Why?

yes your assumption is wrong. There is no encryptor in this game at all. Daytalk is part of the game setup and not because of some role.

If this game had an encryptor, we would not be told that mafia has daytalk.

you literally said you understood but clearly you don't

Expressing this is turning out more difficult than I thought. I think we are talking past each other.

I understand that the fact that we have mechanical daytalk means that there is literally no one with an assigned encryptor role. I really really understand that.

What I'm saying is that game balance / set up wise it should be roughly equivalent to have an encryptor as it is to have daytalk. Since I can not find many examples of games with mechanical daytalk I'm looking for games with encryptors which seem to be far more common. The mafia 'power' in those games should be similar to the mafia power here.

I'm also not saying it is impossible that mafia can have encryptors and roleblockers at the same time. I'm just trying to understand if it is

likely

. If I come back and tell you statistically there is only 5% chance of that happening how does that affect your read on Dunn? what about 95%?

Do you disagree? Are you saying that the fact that mafia has daytalk is not taken into account for game balance and we should pretend it doesn't exist when trying to guess potential mafia roles?

@Xk: If I'm wasting my time I'm open to suggestions of what to do instead. Plus I don't think I am since I'm learning a lot with the exercise.

[Toto]

Thanks! this is much more helpful. I was already looking at mini normal but will take into account viability of role-blocker too. This is going to be more time consuming than I thought, though. I'll try to have a report in 3 days.

@2face: thanks for the links. I had already found a couple of them. I still think 4 is low sample size, though.

Xk, you mentioned you think is Grapes was town before. Why?

[Toto]

Is Grapes scum?

I don't think so.

This is what I meant.

[Toto]

Thanks, I appreciate (some of) the welcoming atmosphere in this game forum.

[Toto]

If we are going to assume Dunn is town then I'd go for Zach if we are going for someone in that list.

[Toto]

Grapes still doesn't answer my questions about trading. Is anyone else bothered by that?

Gerry is either being obtuse or scum. Im leaning on the latter. Still want to see what he says after reading 2face as he said he would.

[Toto]

@Grapes. 1987. Please answer my questions.

[Toto]

Yes its only one question. Not answering my questions refers to your behavior. This is small detail you are trying to use against me which makes me more convinced you are scum. Now answer the question. What are you talking about then?

[Toto]

I'm talking about the fact that CCing dunn sending me something means that if I'm scum lying about it and he flips town I get lynched for it. Hence "trade".

Like, we've been over this already. Conclusions were jumped to.

I think I finally got what you were trying to say. Why 'is it not equally likely that red!dun wants to trade with green!grapes than vice-versa'?

You are probably green. UNVOTE: Grapes

[Toto]

Grapes still doesn't answer my questions about trading. Is anyone else bothered by that?

Gerry is either being obtuse or scum. Im leaning on the latter. Still want to see what he says after reading 2face as he said he would.

This sounds like you might be setting up to vote me later. Also I'm not reading into twofaced until night time, cause he's tunneling me for shit reasons right now

It does depends on what you answer.

I actually agree with Naomi there is something suspicious about your enraged reaction. Specially the way you talked to Zach who was defending you seemed unnatural.

[Toto]

Spoiler: When did naomi say that?

I actually agree with Naomi there is something suspicious about your enraged reaction.

When did naomi say that?

Im here. Waiting for Gerry to be swinging from some rope

I honestly just hope you get lynched either today or tomorrow. idc if you're town or mafia, you're just being annoying. you out horrible reasons for fosing me, and you tunnel me for no reason.

This reads so fake... as someone who was provoked into voting for someone emotionally last game this literally reads as false..

@Dunn. ^^

I'm actually more concerned about the next post he wrote after that

gerryoat i need you in person to shed some light on this situation

what do you want

Maybe I'm reading too much into this but this sounds like fake aggression towards Zach.

[Toto]

Was Gerry at l-1? I dont think so. If not why claim now?

[Toto]

I'd like to hear from Gerry about the early claim first. Also, we would need a full claim before we lynch anyone. I don't expect a full claim before he is at L-1.

I have a feeling this is going to be a green flip for the record.

[Toto]

If niether Dunn or Gerry are lying then my best guess is that mafia has a jail-keeper. That would make more sense with a vigilante and roleblocker on our side. Then again, I'm not an expert in these matters.

I find it unlikely that neither them is lying. Specially after 3/3 claimed wagons turned out to be PRs. Moreover, Gerry's early claim makes less sense now after his full claim. I don't buy he would have targeted a maybe-PR and deny it from it's only chance to be confirmed next day. How is that a smart move?

On the other hand, the reason I had a slight town read on Gerry is that I did not understand how a Mafia team with daytalk agreed to perform this early of a claim. Seems like a bad move. I still don't see it happening.

So I have contradictory reads here. Anyone wants to chime in?

[Toto]

Guys, this is pretty easy now. I think.

There are at least two scum in {dunn, 2-face, naomi, gerry} assuming town has at most 4 PRs.

If this is true the good thing is that it is either. 2-face+gerry or dunn+naomi.

Let's flip one and figure out who the other is.

[Toto]

What's the logic behind the Dunn/Naomi pair though? Why must it be those two specifically, as opposed to Dunn/Grapes or Grapes/Naomi?

There are at least two scum in {dunn, 2-face, naomi, gerry} assuming town has at most 4 PRs.

Like you said, if you assume 2-face+gerry are town, and assume we have at most 4 PRs, we still have a vig out there. That means Dunn+Naomi must be scum.

I don't know whether it is likely we have >4 PRs I haven't seen that very often.

[Toto]

And itlepip

[Toto]

Naomi's claim seem weird. If scum, maybe they didn't notice two-face had already soft-claimed.

Only reason I doubt 2-face is his recent 180 degree turn on Gerry when he was at L-1 (before gerry full-claimed, I think).

[Toto]

Right, but if he's a scum roleblocker, then surely either itlepip was the Vig kill, or scum killed and roleblocked pip on the same night.

Why would scum roleblock and kill itlepip at the same time? This only makes sense if Dunn is scum too.

I guess it could also be Dunn + Gerry. I don't understand Gerry/Dunn two way bus though.

[Toto]

and you don't see how a town player would reconsider their read when a person who was basically town reading gerry magically does a 180 and asks for a claim?

I understand your point. It does seem a bit odd though. You were 100% convinced that Gerry was scum.

Naomi's move is also weird.

Dunn + Naomi makes sense when combined with the red/blue/green interaction in D1.

[Toto]

I don't think letting mafia know our plan is going to help.

[Toto]

It is pretty ridiculous.

If they were that concerned about him being protected then they would have roleblocked him and just killed someone else.

It makes sense to me only if Dunn is scum. Otherwise seems unlikely.

[Toto]

Unless pip was the vig kill which doesn't seem likely, Gerry is probably town

Why does the vigilante target affects whether Gerry is town? How would it change the info you received?

[Toto]

Would you mind linking post Im on phone and cant seem to find it

[Toto]

If mafia shot maria and vig shot itlepip why does that make gerry more scummy?

[Toto]

If mafia shot maria and vig shot itlepip why does that make gerry more scummy?

Cause that would mean he is scum blocker

Im sorry didnt mafia rb/jk dunn and shot maria in this scenario?

I dont think this is what actually happened though.

Im just worried that you were hinting at another role before with the vig analysis which is why I'm asking.

[Toto]

Naomi. You were reading itlepip as town all of D1. Why didnt you BG him yesterday?

[Toto]

I think we should lynch either Dunn or Gerry. These two have had L-1 wagons on them so their flip would be most informative. I agree with massive Gerry does seem like the odd ball here.

[Toto]

I think we should lynch either Dunn or Gerry. These two have had L-1 wagons on them so their flip would be most informative. I agree with massive Gerry does seem like the odd ball here.

you're being dumb or mafia. which one is it

Great rhetoric. If you are town your attitude is not helpful.

[Toto]

Serious question toto. Have you read what's been going on?

pip was blocked and killed.

Who do you think killed pip? Mafia or vig?

If Mafia that means Gerry being mafia makes little sense

It makes sense if he is mafia with Dunn or Grapes. Or if mafia has another role altering role.

Rbing and killing itlepip makes sense in case itlepip got protection he wouldnt be able to use his role.

Rbing itlepip as town doesn't seem like the right play.

[Toto]

@mod do we really have 17h left?

[Toto]

Ok. It seems you disagree with me but dont want to explain why. Good job.

[Toto]

So you don't even think gerry guessed that you knew he was roleblocked? I dont understand your sudden change on gerry. This is the guy you were convinced he was scum and suddenly you have no reasonable doubts that he is scum when there are farily few reasonable scenarios where he could be and still make that claim. You claim my logic is faulty but it is you that are not making sense.

[Toto]

So you don't even think gerry guessed that you knew he was roleblocked?

So you think the scumteam is grapes and gerry? Because they'd BOTH have to be scum in that case

Well it could be dunn + gerry too, from my point of view.

[Toto]

So you don't even think gerry guessed that you knew he was roleblocked?

So you think the scumteam is grapes and gerry? Because they'd BOTH have to be scum in that case

I'm not sure I see your logic. Actually I don't see mine either anymore. If gerry is scum and itlepip was roleblocked by mafia he doesn't need to guess.

If mafia has no extra RB

gerry

could be

scum with the following partners: {dunn 50%, grapes 10%, 2-face 30%}

Gerry could be partners with someone else if they have another role altering role (jk, bus-driver, etc) (I'm giving this 10%)

This all assumes gerry is scum.

Looking at Gerry's L-1 wagon it has all other 3 claimed PRs. If this was a bus it seems too early. But this is why I'm worried about 2-face's 180 turn. I know 2-face explained this, but I still have some doubts.

Looking at Dunn's wagon from yesterday it has 2face + Naomi but not Gerry.

I think I feel good with this today. My backup option would be Dunn.
VOTE: gerry

[Toto]

Im ok with dunn or gerry but I think gerry is better.
Also has the largest wagon now.

[Toto]

VOTE: dunn

[Toto]

Massive why are you not voting Dunn or Gerry? Do you think they are both town?

[Toto]

The only way dunn can be town is if 2face or grapes are scum with gerry. He does seem to believe that though.

[Toto]

Hey. Since you are both online we can still flip gerry. If he is town we can lynch dunn tomorrow. There has to be one scum in dunn or gerry

VOTE: gerry

[Toto]

I also think he has a decent chance of not being town. And his role is not confirmable. Dunn still is.

[Toto]

Im VT go ahead. I prefer that to nolynch today.

[Toto]

VOTE: dunn has higher chance of being scum than me

[Toto]

VOTE: zach

[Toto]

@mod. We lost 2 days but we also lost momentum because of downtime specially over the weekend. Please consider this.

[Toto]

VOTE: nos

[Toto]

Zach my guess is you are getting shot after we lynch nos today. If you are green you may want to tell us what to do next. Otherwise gg

[Toto]

Zach my guess is you are getting shot after we lynch nos today. If you are green you may want to tell us what to do next. Otherwise gg

toto, I swear if you are town...

Yeah I gave the big secret away...

[Toto]

Zachstralkita (5) - PantherPunt, Xkfyu, grapes, Toto, massive (L-1)
gerryoat (3) - Naomi-Tan, Dunnstral, Nosferatu

sorry zach

this actually doesn't look good for you.

no way scum forces a NL on a townie

I know what it looks like.. it actually makes Nos look worse

zach, where is your vote for Nos?

Oh! Haha! Here it is. This is not suspicious.

VOTE: Nosferatu

Zach my guess is you are getting shot after we lynch nos today. If you are green you may want to tell us what to do next. Otherwise gg

lynch xk

Why Xk?

[Toto]

Dunn jking town!zach makes sort of sense because that was a likely vig target. If that happened it would add more confusion.

[Toto]

Yeah im leaning zach because 2face is alive

[Toto]

They could have jk naomi and shoot 2face

[Toto]

I don't know what that means but I wish you double of it.

[Toto]

I think our last scum is Massive. He could be a scum commuter.
VOTE: Massive

Thats L-1

[Toto]

Please don't hammer until everyone has had their say today. No need to rush today.

[Toto]

Let's lynch massive, then. Xk, why are you not voting?

[Toto]

If it is a commuter massive had more reason to commute than xk. Although both of them were potential vigi targets.

@mod can a mafia commuter kill and commute on the same night?

[Toto]

@mod to be perfectly clear in hypothetical sandbox scenario mafia commuter commutes and targets player1 for a kill. Assuming there is no protection or any other mechanic affecting player1 or the mafia player, would player1 die?

[Toto]

VOTE: zach

[Toto]

Toto explain to me how you derived zachscum from what you just learned from that.

Dunn jk zach why him and not any PR or his buddies?

I thought that no kill meant commuter. And dunn jk zach who could just commute away didnt make sense.

[Toto]

Why does a commuter make it make sense why there wasn't a scumkill?

Why does a scumteam with a jailkeeper need a commuter?

1) I thought it did make sense because I expected the answer to my question to the mod to be "no". Intuitively it made sense because the guy is leaving town so how the hell is he going to kill anyone at night.

2) It makes sense to me with all the other roles we have. We have 5 PRs, mafia probably has two.

[Toto]

If vig had shots left and used them and nobody died I expect a claim. It makes it a 1v1 in that situation and we can secure the win.

So my guess is that he didn't have shots left, didn't fire, or he hasn't reported yet.

[Toto]

Yeah I understand commuter is less likely now given mod clarification.

Zach was at l-1. Vig killed maria n1 who was also at l-1. Dunn was trying to save zach.

[Toto]

Yeah I see that point as a counter argument. How was Dunn the public plan though? I was actually glad and surprised that was what happened

[Toto]

From my point of view vig was going to shoot dunn or zach most likely. Why not jk naomi and kill you or gerry? They really traded off a lot to save zach.

[Toto]

Gerry was not supposed to die. They wanted to blame zach being alive to vig getting rbed maybe.

[Toto]

Nah that doesnt make sense

[Toto]

Gerry was not supposed to die. They wanted to blame zach being alive to vig getting rbed maybe.

Gerry died because he blocked scum

I understand. My point was that mafia didn't know he was a

weak

roleblocker, and didn't count he was going to die. I think it explains why he wasn't killed. If Dunn survived he could say he was role-blocked and gerry (who some of us thought could be a mafia roleblocker) did it.

[Toto]

N2 actions now make more sense to me as an attempt to frame Zach. I'm back to Massive or Xk. I read massive again. He reads scummy to me.

VOTE: massive

By the way, Massive / Zach / Xk. Two of you are town and you are not helping.

[Toto]

Also massive you need to give other reads really really soon.

Nos is probably town

, if only because of his reaction to Twoface from his catchup. I still like Toto; his posting style and whether or not he has experience he isn't claiming is NAI to me and I like his thought process.

Dunn's post about Grapes (392) feels like town as well

. I like xkyfu but it's just a small warm fuzzy.

Zach is null because I can never read this stupid Radiant Cowbells playstyle that seems to be all the rage with the kids these days.

I have no idea why Naomi (a) didn't at least OMGUS back at me when she finally decided to list out her reads or (b) why she picked Nosferatu over Maria or gerryoat who were both just as useless at the time. It could be confbias though because I am 100% convinced she is scum.

Pretty much everyone else is blah. I feel like I should have an opinion about Grapes but honestly I don't.

translation: Nos and Dunn are town. Toto is town because he says Dunn is town. Everyone else is not town.

[Toto]

Toto is town for this post. If scum-Toto wanted to distract the town with discussion of daytalk, he had opportunities Day 1 (around Naomi's giant-letter post, for example) to do so. Bringing it up Day 2 in the middle of a bogged-down town is an actual attempt at trying to find another way to unlock the game.

Would lynch Naomi. Probably Toto too at this point. Want to look at gerry's ISO to see if his claimed target makes sense or if he acknowledged itlepip claiming a PR in the game.

Explain read progression.

[Toto]

15. This game is 3 mafia-aligned players versus 10 town-aligned players.

@Mod, Is SK possible in this set up? (this reads like no to me, just want to be 100% sure).

[Toto]

Xk, Massive, you are going to lose either today or tomorrow. It's up to you how long you want to endure the pain.

[Toto]

I don't like this Lylo discussion

[Toto]

For what is worth Dunn attacked me on Day two as well.

[Toto]

I'm assuming grapes is town because you were pushing Dunn hard last minute yesterday, and most of D1.
I'm believing 2face on his role now. Unless this is some sort of crazy gambit but I don't think it is.
Panther is town because people wanted to kill him.

That leaves Xk Massive and Zach

Zach we already discussed.

That leaves Xk and Massive

I'm leaning town on Xk because he was voting dunn and nos most of D2

That leaves massive. I'm voting massive.

[Toto]

Also massive you need to give other reads really really soon.

Nos is probably town

, if only because of his reaction to Twoface from his catchup. I still like Toto; his posting style and whether or not he has experience he isn't claiming is NAI to me and I like his thought process.

Dunn's post about Grapes (392) feels like town as well

. I like xkyfu but it's just a small warm fuzzy.

Zach is null because I can never read this stupid Radiant Cowbells playstyle that seems to be all the rage with the kids these days.

I have no idea why Naomi (a) didn't at least OMGUS back at me when she finally decided to list out her reads or (b) why she picked Nosferatu over Maria or gerryoat who were both just as useless at the time. It could be confbias though because I am 100% convinced she is scum.

Pretty much everyone else is blah. I feel like I should have an opinion about Grapes but honestly I don't.

translation: Nos and Dunn are town. Toto is town because he says Dunn is town. Everyone else is not town.

@Grapes: This is why I think massive is scum.

[Toto]

1) Massive said he'd be ok with voting gerry but then didn't. He didn't because that would leave Dunn without an excuse for roleblock next day.
2) Massive read me as town but then changed his mind last minute when Dunn was in danger.

Inconsistent reads and actions.

[Toto]

Okay so you jived with what I put down about why I think he's town okay that's good.

Dunn jking town!zach makes sort of sense because that was a likely vig target. If that happened it would add more confusion.

This was D3. I had put forth the same theory you had about town!zach before you brought that up. I just thought that while that is likely the case, there is also a chance that Dunn was just trying to protect scum!zach.

[Toto]

Actually no, this is terrible.

Instead of looking at the facts, I'm just sitting here trying to reason out how Dunn can still be town, simply because I don't want to have been wrong about him this whole time.

This is actually pretty simple.

I'm pretty sure that it must still be the case that there is at least one scum in {Grapes, Gerry, Dunn}.

It's just that now, I really don't think it's Gerry. So, either Dunn or Grapes has to be our lynch today, and I'm sure the Vig is smart enough to shoot properly tonight, based on the flip.

VOTE: Dunnstral

This is why Xk is likely town in my view.

[Toto]

TwoFace, if scum, did not need to throw Nos under the bus.

His alternative explanation of why Gerry died would have been that Gerry RB'ed Dunn.

[Toto]

There was no need to claim now. Grapes.

[Toto]

Did you shoot 2face? Why do you think he is BP?

[Toto]

Grapes you have shots left?

[Toto]

Yes, please. Calm the fuck down. Please.

[Toto]

I missed his claim what did he claim?

When people die, he sees what they visited that night and previous nights
And it's a passive ability

Let vig shoot me and lynch someone else.

Zach was being framed most likely

[Toto]

Actually, I guess what happened was that Dunn was planning to frame someone. Zach getting to L-1 happened later. Was there a change in plans because of that? Why'd Dunn choose Zach to frame? What could have made you think Zach was the vigi at that time?

[Toto]

Dunn/Nos/Naomi(or just terribad town)/xfukyu has to have at least 2 scums. If you guys are all towns i'd literally stop playing forum maf lmao


Nos and Xkfyu aren't even voting you

This would be too obvious?

[Toto]

Intent to hammer

[Toto]

Yeah, I'll wait

[Toto]

I get why he didn't try to block me but why not try and block Naomi?

Maybe because Naomi might have protected Dunn?

[Toto]

It was also Dunn's idea

[Toto]

Naomi needs to be on twofaced

Unless you doubt his claim?

Actually this makes more sense. This explains why they didn't shoot 2face. They didn't block Naomi because they didn't shoot 2face. They wanted that if Dunn was to die they would frame Zach. They wanted to keep Gerry alive in case Dunn lived the could blame Gerry. They didn't expect Gerry was a weak role-blocker and would fuck their plan.

So that explains why they didn't shoot any other PR.

What I don't understand is this. Dunn knew that if he died Nos was fucked too. He clearly stated he understood 2face's role. Why didn't they JK Naomi and shoot 2face? Did they just fuck up?

p-edit. Grapes, fuck off. I'm town. I'll get to your questions.

[Toto]

Actually Dunn flipping scum j/k doesn't condemn nos alone. It could be argued that nos was town being blocked by mafia. What did nos in was being visited by Gerry and dying.

Ok, this is a good point.

So if Dunn died, and there was no weak role blocker you would have said "Dunn JK Nos on N1, and Zach on N2" and we would have been like "WTH! they are both scum!" and proceed to lynch them.

[Toto]

Dunn: the early town read on grapes feels authentic to me now. I'm not sure I would have been able to come up with that explanation as scum.
Grapes: Mainly because of the above.

This was super early game but; why did dunn calling me town make you unvote me here?

In my mind that meant that either Dunn was scum and was sheeping you or we was town and knew better than me.

[Toto]

In post 861, Toto wrote:
VOTE: dunn

That early town read on grapes keeps nagging at me too. still feels like knowledge gap.

And then here; thought you thought his read on me was authentic?

Like I said then, I changed my mind later. Specially after you attacked him.

[Toto]

But would we really think that?

Probably would have started with Zach who was nearly lynched previous day.

[Toto]

To be honest I havent catched up. But my only two reads
Are these: grapes is probably town because either you truly townread her or you KNOW she is town. The second is that I think the latter is more likely after all. Plus I like her thinking on the color thing and I trust her now.

did I miss anything important?

Yea your read on me STAYED intertwined with your read on dunn. This is weird.

I don't understand what you mean here. We have had our differences. We had some early game.

1) I was scum reading you early.
2) Dunn makes weird early town read on you.
3) Dunn gives an explanation which first time I read sounded fair. I already explained why I think this most likely means you are town.
4) You start questioning his early read too.
5) You push a decent case on Dunn.

So at (5) I trust grapes more and distrust Dunn more. In the case this is actually a bus, my vote is safely on scum either way.

[Toto]

I visited Grapes

So I guess it's Grapes or Dunn at this point. Or both.
I don't know why Grapes wouldn't play along if Dunn had indeed visited them. Regardless of Grapes alignment.

Dunn could be scum trying to get their partner more credence once they get themselves lynched.
Dunn could also be WIFOMing to get us to doubt Grapes because of the above.
It is hard to discard for me any of the two options.

One thing seems almost sure based on the above: Dunn is scum.

VOTE: Dunn

The bolded is cognitive dissonance.

You are mis-interpreting my step by step reasoning here. Remember I was not aware of possible roleblocker at the time.

My reasoning:

1) One of Dunn or grapes must be Lying here.
2) Since grapes is unlikely to not play along regardless of alignment it must mean Dunn is scum.

Where is the "cognitive dissonance"?

[Toto]

VOTE: Dunn

I love being right.

Doesn't happen much but when it does.

HNGGGGG.

^^^^^

Roleblock makes some sense. I did not think of that.

Ah. Of course you didn't.

You didn't either...

[Toto]

Where is the "cognitive dissonance"?

Just the entire post feels for show.

Why say "it's one of grapes or dunn or both" just to go on to say you can't think of any reason for me to cc as scum andthat dunn's scum for sure.

It's pretty much what I said. You tried to discredit my logic, now you find my prose scum indicative?

You are annoying.

[Toto]

I'm defending myself because your throwing a shade on me is not going to help town if Xk is not scum...

I know you love being right. But you are wrong.

If you are reading my defense as scummy then I don't know what you want me to do. I won't respond to your questions then.

[Toto]

why do you think xk is scum?

I think 2Face is town, and I think Dunn tried to frame Zach. You are confirmed so it has to be Xk.

PoE.

[Toto]

Can I answer questions now? Im. On my phone so if you can condense them thatd be great

[Toto]

@Grapes. 1987. Please answer my questions.

Wow he really wanted that question answered.
I think this was where I got really apathetic/busy. LOL

Okay toto question for you ...

Here's 1987:

Grapes. I believe its a roleblocker. given both your reactions. but if that wasn't a thing then I'd go with You being Red! its far more likely you lied about not getting his pm than him making that fake claim.

Why is it not equally likely

that we'd want to trade

, naomi?

Your thought process makes no sense.

explain what this means and what you're saying here

I'm saying why does naomi's mind go straight to grapes scum; when I'M the one CCing Dunn's claim to have visited me. Who has less reason to lie there?

How is this a slip booger brain? He's asking me a fucking question.

Your explanation doesn't include the word trading. Where is the trading happening?

So, what was your thought process before you asked this. Or I guess I should say; what answer

s

were you expecting me to give here.
How did my answer affect your read and why.

I thought this was a scumslip and that you two were scumpartners and wanted to trade: sacrifice one to confirm the other.

I guess I wanted to pressure you into admission of your mistake albeit not very gracefully.

[Toto]

How did my answer affect your read and why.

Your answer helped me understand what you actually meant and that made more sense than my conspiratory theory so I dropped it.

[Toto]

It makes sense if he is mafia with Dunn or Grapes. Or if mafia has another role altering role.

Rbing and killing itlepip makes sense in case itlepip got protection he wouldnt be able to use his role.

Rbing itlepip as town doesn't seem like the right play.

Mmm.

Here is a confirmed town that agrees with me on rb + kill:

Why would scum roleblock and kill itlepip at the same time?

They wouldn't, that's what I'm saying.

It's 100% possible. For fear of a protection on itelpip, they block as well in case he's an investigative role (which voila he was).

Not saying it's what happened but don't sit here saying it's ridiculous

Gerry's play make more sense now because (1) he was voting itlepip end of day 1 and he was WEAK roleblocker. If he died he needed a way to tell us who he targeted so targeting the last person you he was voting makes sense. I don't consider this a bad play anymore given his true role.

He probably did not want to admit that before because that would compromise his N2 play.

[Toto]

Scumhunt a little bit. For me, toto? Let's see some analysis.

I've been town hunting since I think that's more useful at this stage of the game. You should probably do that too. I've already explained my cases. If you want to keep digging into the wrong cause go ahead and beat your head against the wrong tree. I'm done wasting time with you.

[Toto]

I'm not an alt...

Xk, if you are town now would be a good time to speak.

[Toto]

I obviously can not prove I'm not an alt so that means you are just trolling.

[Toto]

Same here, it was fun but stressful. I hope this is GG.

[Toto]

Well Im town.

[Toto]

TwoFace was online after your post so That confirms him

[Toto]

Zach. You havent done shit to gamesolve. You had a scumread on me but somehow I slipped under your radar lately. How do you explain that?

Your reads have not changed in the entire game. You have been balantly sheeping twoface and naomi the whole game.

The only thing I dont understand is why you guys decided to throw the game and not kill 2face and why 2face role is so overpowered

VOTE: zach

[Toto]

I wont have internet access for the next 10hours. Gl

[Toto]

Won't have too much time to post today but just wanted to answer a few things.

Toto when you get back please explain 1. Why you think my role is OP and 2. Why that would upset you if you're town.

I'll answer (2) for now. We can leave the theoretical discussion about (1) for after the game, unless you think it is important to answer it now.

I was only frustrated I could not understand this thing and it was affecting my read on you before by adding a healthy dose of suspicion. I did not have a scum read on you but after the last day ended I went in full paranoia mode. I spent a lot of time thinking about this and could not make sense of it and that's what makes me upset.

[Toto]

Zach. You havent done shit to gamesolve. You had a scumread on me but somehow I slipped under your radar lately. How do you explain that?

Your reads have not changed in the entire game. You have been balantly sheeping twoface and naomi the whole game.

The only thing I dont understand is why you guys decided to throw the game and not kill 2face and why 2face role is so overpowered

VOTE: zach

Tell me more about how you "forgot" Twoface was conf.

Nice trap question.

1) You are lying. I never said TwoFace is confirmed town so how can I be forgetting something I never knew. Even more, how can you claim I forget something I never said I knew?

2) You are asking me this to get me and 2Face in a argument about whether he was conf. town or not before today.

Whether he was confirmed town or not before today is irrelevant now, and it is a theoretical discussion at best at this point. He was very very likely to be town in but not confirmed in my eyes.

Your question 100% scum motivated. You are lying to trap me. Nice try.

[Toto]

You should mind that he doesn't really need to do a whole lot to make me look like buddies with Dunn and nos.