In post 452, havingfitz wrote:@ IAI...my oversight. Correct...D1 town has 25% chance of hitting scum (3 out of 12). Still not as good as 50% with any PR claim counter claim combos we would surely get. Not sure whet you mean by "the math works out to 3 outta 7" though. Can you explain?
Assuming town never lies about it's role (in a setup like this I expect this to not be a problem), one of three things happen:
1) Vanilla town get's rung up and claims vanilla. We know he is either 1 of 4 vanilla town, or 1 of 3 scum hoping a vanilla claim gets him out of being lynched. 3 in 7 chance of hitting scum.
2) Vanilla power role get's rung up. He claims. No CC, and we don't lynch town. Lather, rinse, repeat. If scum CC, we got a 50/50 chance of hitting scum. (100% chance the following day if wrong)
3) Scum gets rung up. Claims Vanilla, same odds as #1 (3 outta 7)
4) Scum gets rung up, claims power role. Town CC, same odds as #2 (50/50, and 100% chance the following day if wrong)
Worst odds here are 3 outta 7, not 3 outta 12.