Large Normal 241: Random Pictures and Other Stuff | Endgame

[GuiltyLion]

anyway that's my input that's the only thing i can muster i need to hangout with my girlfriend she misses me and she doesn't think im scum

:/ I thought you'd be more free to play today

[GuiltyLion]

I mean by all means hang out with your girlfriend right now, but when can we expect you to actually catch up and actually play

[GuiltyLion]

i think if hem is scum and claiming to try to out the vig then he claims the vp shot

I mean, if you're a vig and someone else claims your shot, you don't have to claim, you can just shoot them.

lol Enchant did this to me once and we were both town

[GuiltyLion]

I think we should lim obscure instead of leash HEM

we can leash HEM to someone else, but obscure feels like a good flip esp if HEM is actually town

VOTE: obscure[/vote

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: obscure

[GuiltyLion]

yah I would also prefer a marci vig instead of a gamma vig, I feel this game wasn't really unlike my impression of gamma's towngame

Smart is also a fine vig shot and 4813 feels a little survivalist in how he immediately encourages a Gamma shot

[GuiltyLion]

his associates w baltar are bad

I have almost certainly forgotten parts of D2 where different people talked about this but I still kinda think Relly's associatives with Baltar aren't that bad. they're not clearing, but I think on the whole it seems more likely Relly didn't know VPB was scum given the breezy half baked townread morphing into an unceremonious "could go either way" vote, just felt like he wasn't trying to enact an agenda or a planned trajectory

[GuiltyLion]

huh actually gong back I could see how one might see marci's D1-D2 gamma progression as an inno

but I completely didn't clock it at the time

and it makes me wonder if it's fair to think marci/gamma is T-T and scum!Smart was more prone to picking up on that because he's looking for results/crumbs in townie's reads

[GuiltyLion]

If Gamma flips scum marci is town which is cool.

wait how does this make sense if you think marci might have an inno

[GuiltyLion]

well obviously if Gamma flips scum then marci didn't have an inno, so what's the problem?

why would that make her town, though. I'd be more suspicious if I thought someone was softing a clear on scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I guess I just initially thought you were saying you didn't think their interaction was S-S, which I was on board with

then you said you thought she might have mechcleared him

but that means the "if gamma scum marci town" thought exists completely outside of also thinking she may have cleared him, because clearing him is not possible in that world

I can see how this all might makes sense but it confused me because it feels like you're speaking about two separate worlds at the same time

[GuiltyLion]

i will always kill the person with the second highest number of votes at the end of the day

this is not wise, especially if we flip scum.

seems consensus is a marci vig currently, but tbh I'd even prefer if you followed your own best judgment and justified it in thread later than following an arbitrary rule like this

[GuiltyLion]

did you shoot VPB

[GuiltyLion]

ok I just want to lim/vig in obscure/smart and will reluctantly accept gamma if people want that instead

we can hunt for deepwolves tomorrow based on flips

I feel marci's claim & play makes a lot of sense and also affirms HEM's claim as probably town

[GuiltyLion]

anyways i no longer tr something smart i thought he was the other vig LMAO

specifically this was crumbed:

lions who do i scumread

who should i iso

zzz

I don't get why you have Smart as town

you've been scum with him before, do you see any differences in his play here from HDP

i dont remember sorry
i think smsrts easier to read as game goes on though!!

for why i said smarts town
im mostly just bsing most of my posts and saying things i think of asi think of them. a post smart made i liked.

[GuiltyLion]

@Datisi how would scum!HEM know that there exists a vig with a modifier, specifically

like if Mafia has a doc I could see inferring vig, but if he claimed modifier just to try to survive and explain not shooting last night, he got insanely lucky that apparently we have a modifier on the town vig

[GuiltyLion]

I'm on the obscure / Smart / ?? fireisred? Dann? train myself currently

[GuiltyLion]

xofelf and DV are possible scum slots in this game too I guess

[GuiltyLion]

I hard disagree with the notion that scum are more likely to be off wagon and white knighting him than the ones killing him. And like, Dann can be scum, sure. SS. maybe. Marci, maybe although lately, I've been thinking that she might just be noise and not scum but could still maybe be scum.

ConManMick (11): Ydrasse, Aristeia, Irrelephant11, Ausuka, Datisi, scamper, Gamma Emerald, humaneatingmonkey, DeasVail, VP Baltar, ConManMick

humaneatingmonkey (9): scamper, GuiltyLion, fireisredsir, Ydrasse, Thestatusquo, Gamma Emerald, Datisi, DeasVail, Enchant

I'm just assuming that's what a potential HEM lim wagon might look like.

You guys really going to sit there and tell me that there's one scum on between both ml wagons?

Scamper, Gamma, TSQ slot, Dats, YD, and Deas (if he were to go back) would all look horrible and at the very least I wouldn't trust the same core group that pulled off a shitty con wagon to find scum d2 or 3.

this was a good post btw that I want to harken back to and why I think there's potential scum in fireisred/DV

I just don't think I could properly suss it out right now while the POE is so wide

I've been avoiding commenting directly on the Datisi clear but yes I also saw that and it locked scamper town for me when it happened

I also kinda thought Ydra was softing vig lol so we'll see where she goes

[GuiltyLion]

i'm never scum without scamper

well there's also the world where scamper's a gunsmith and you're a traitor

but yeah a bunch of better vig shots to be made first

[GuiltyLion]

I'm confused by GuiltyLion saying the PoE is wide because to me it doesn't seem that wide.

I just mean too wide for me to properly discern if someone like fireisred or Dann is just town or playing a good scumgame

once I can see how a few more limbaity/scummy slots flip and how deepwolf candidates interacted with them, I'll feel more confident about getting the right read there

[GuiltyLion]

why did ppl think ydrasseis vig..? it seems unlikely

early D2 she basically said don't run me up because I'll claim and it'll be a waste of time

I didn't know we'd have two subsequent vig claims after that, I agree she's not a vig now assuming you're not just straight up lying, but I'm still expecting her to be some useful/confirmable role that will come out eventually

[GuiltyLion]

also her reaction to HEM claim felt like a frustrated town vig seeing a fakeclaim

[GuiltyLion]

I gut prefer obscure over DV but I'm not sure I can currently articulate why in a way that's satisfying - even to myself.

there's been small moments of pressure or re-evaluation from DV that give townvibes. I get that if he's scum the purpose of those posts would be to get townread, and I also have a nagging feeling that we mind melded more in Shakespeare, but this game is a lot faster / more bloated so part of me thinks it may be that.

idk I'll try to re-ISO each when I have some time today and see if I can feel decidedly one way or the other. kind of want a VC too to see where the wagons are at

[GuiltyLion]

lmao

[GuiltyLion]

but apparently people want to kill me because i'm busy >.>

how do you know why people want to kill you if you're not caught up?

[GuiltyLion]

because whenever i'm able to participate people find me as town, then i come back and i'm being voted.

but isn't this just an assumption on your part? Like how are you sure that I didn't write up some super persuasive convincing analysis of why you are scum in the pages you haven't read?

it feels like the main reason to make such a claim is to discourage people from voting you

that may come from town who doesn't like being voted, but this claim about why people are voting you strikes me as disingenuous

[GuiltyLion]

i think we have to kill you rather than risk outing another PR

I don't think this logic makes sense when we have a vig shot tonight

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not trying to position myself as a mech person, I'm just thinking if we flip obscure and he's a VT, vig might shoot in DV/S_S in which case we'd lose them if they're a confirmable PR in that world too

[GuiltyLion]

like that time when Datisi shot an IC

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

I also sort of had a gut town reaction to those obscure posts

idk I get that he just claimed but I do want to actually reread the ISOs again and avoid making a bad decision out of inertia

[GuiltyLion]

It had almost no success getting traction on gamma because of a ubiquitous claim that her tone and emotion were coming from town, and I find it really weird that as far as I can say nothing really seems to have changed that much but here's a wagon out of nowhere.

my main thing with Gamma is I thought she felt genuinely uninformed of marci's alignment. When I pushed on marci at the very start of the game, Gamma kinda pushed back at me in a defensive way, I think this was out of considering her a friend and not wanting her to get bullied immediately out of playing at gamestart. Then Gamma slowly became more and more suspicious of marci throughout D1/D2, it didn't feel like a calculated trajectory to me and I feel scum!Gamma would have been more likely to stick to an approach of buddying marci rather than picking a fight with her and claiming to feel "betrayed"

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: obscure

I'm still not feeling great about this and still need to re-ISO DV, I am taking a train to Portland shortly and will try to do a bit of reading during that, but looking at wagon comp I still like this option much better than DV. MT wagon seems ok but I haven't found the courage to re-evaluate my Gamma townread yet

[GuiltyLion]

Was there something specific to look at? He's still in that space for me of townie but every now and then making a clangy post. but I'd feel stupid if we limmed him and he flips town over the more classically scummy and more immediately appealing options. I don't think he's necessarily endgame for me atm.

Also 5211 is kinda exactly how I'm feeling, thats a perceptive post if hes scum, and I feel I'd need to see more of fire's interactions with flipped town/scum to feel confident about voting there

[GuiltyLion]

Anyway train is now taking off so gonna do some ISOs

[GuiltyLion]

I'm re-ISOing obscure trying to build the best town case for him that I can but nothing is striking me as unfakeable or clearing

I think if he is scum he's skilled at pressing the right buttons to defuse pressure. issues I have with him are: his main real presented scumread & case on DV is fairly thin, there's some instances peppered throughout his ISO of motivated reasoning, and I also still have to ding the slot for a complete lack of substantial/clearing interactions with Baltar

[GuiltyLion]

my two main novel thoughts I had rereading obscure:

VOTE: Gamma Emerald this is a scum slot I think

HEMs early stuff I thought town and also VP but a few things struck me as off from both and I would like to look back properly at both.
I don't particularly think FB is town but I can wait for him to kick into gear for now and he's done enough that I am not auto scumreading so I don't want to vote there right now.
I am interested in seeing more of Xof's iso dives to see what kind of content is there
I will look at some stuff in the morning. I'm trying to just chuck down rough notes so I don't have to start fresh so I appreciate this is a bit halfhazard.

I don't like how cagey this feels and I don't like the excuses for:

• *Not expanding on the VP and HEM reads
  *Posting in order to use the thread as a notepad

At this rate I'll say there's probably a scum in Gamma, xo, Conman

to comment on this,

I saw conman was also a substitute. I feel like I'm doing the same thing? i agree that it's actually helpful when you're coming into the game so late because everything is kind of inflated. so i'm a townie and i sympathize with it, at least, not sure how much of an alignment tell.

i considered just keeping notes on a document first, but if something happens and i die, i want to be able to have my thoughts out there, and humanmonkey mentioned on the last page it's better to just spew all my thoughts.

I could see this post as a bit white knighty of Conman and a little LAMIST. namely the logic of "I think he's townie, cause he's doing this thing I'm also doing" I can imagine as insidiously trying to plant the idea that obscure is town.

deasvail

weird post about me (skitter), but i can ignore this since i'm not going to hold onto a first post into the game. hmm, starts by just outing a bunch of townreads, which feel sort of easy as a lot of them are sort of founded around "i agree with X's reads" rather than establishing their own (948, 949, etc)

i don't like 950 that much either because it sort of feels like they've making up a narrative "as scum, i'd expect them to do X" when that's really not like a logical assumption - mafia can act in a lot of different ways.

3242 some of the re-evaluation on the VP flip feels kind of decent.

i'm struggling a little with 3333. i feel like it's not hard for mafia to find suspects, but it may be more challenging for mafia to actually sound convincing/believable when they push on these suspects, and it sort of feels like deas doesn't really have any strong pushes (so basically what people were saying about me, even though i don't think it's contextually true about me), and that they are struggling in this regard.. which, they do acknowledge this, but i don't necessarily see that as a plus point. their read on me feels a bit.. eh, flat/waffly, like they are just sort of shrugging it off as a slightly lesser townread than before due to what people are saying but not putting a ton of thought into it. also i'm willing to look at frog again, but gut says it's not a good place to push based on my feelings yesterday.

all in all, i still think they deas has a good chance to be scum.

so rereading this post, I don't see why obscure actually thinks DV is more likely scum than anyone else. There's an implicit argument that having a lot of townreads is scummy, but it's not presented directly and it doesn't really hold up - lots of players in the game have the "too many townreads" mindset at the moment, why single out DV over all the rest? And further it applies to obscure as well, which he himself acknowledges here, but then obscure throws this out without attempting to explain the difference between DV's play and obscure's own. just an assertion that they are different.

I also specifically don't like the bit on 950 - there's a lack of depth to obscure's treatment of it.

1) just because it's not a "logical assumption", why is it scummy for DV to think fire is more likely to fake paranoia as scum?

2) the point of how "mafia can act in a lot of different ways" is true, but also kinda meaningless? like in my mind you could use that as a general retort to a lot of arguments or reasons why people might scumread somebody. the whole game is trying to make informed guesses around how scum is likely to behave. so the way obscure is just wholesale dismissing DV's read feels really uncharitable - I'd at minimum want to understand whether obscure has any thoughts on if fireisred would be more likely to fake paranoia as scum, to understand if obscure tried to empathize or engage with DV's read at all. But instead we don't see that, we just have obscure calling it a bad read by DV.

[GuiltyLion]

there was also the Baltar question towards skitter about why she was asking me about my scamper vote and ignoring his own. but I feel that's super easy to fake as scum. I think I remember Nero thought it was dis-associative though?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think this is the Right Wagon but I'm willing to be outvoted at this point and would be happy to be wrong

I like and agree with Datisi's observation that if MT is scum there's at least one buddy bussing here, especially once vig claims came out I think there's incentive for scum to try to be positioned well on a red flip.

[GuiltyLion]

If I had my druthers I'd vig obscure or S_S if tweet flips town

[GuiltyLion]

I leaned towards the messiness of the read on me more likely coming from town. Obscure seems like a thoughtful player and my inclination was that as scum he would be more careful to avoid the inconsistencies in his suspicion of me.

I don’t consider this to be clearing as such, but it does make me hesitant to scumread obscure.

I felt this initially, in context of real time it felt like a townie read and if I'm wrong on obscure this would be the thing I should have held onto

That said, when rereading obscure in ISO, his play feels scummier. I agree obscure demonstrates capacity for thought and game awareness which makes me suspicious that you're the only real scumread he's pushed and that his underlying reasons for voting you don't seem truly convincing

He's not been leveraging his vote with purpose at all and that's becoming a problem as the game goes on. Same with Smart, which is why I think either is a good shot

[GuiltyLion]

mm I don't think N2 is the best time for spicy vig shots

[GuiltyLion]

GL did you just say I was scum for not leveraging my vote?

to be faiiiiiiiiiir I said it'd make you a good vig shot, but yes, I find not voting scummy. Why should I ever townread somebody who is not using the primary tool at their disposal to hunt scum?

also did we not talk about this earlier?

what vote from me would make you townread me the most/scumread me the least?

what I'm looking for mainly is some type of commitment to a wagon that you think has a chance of happening

whether that's obscure, TSQ, or somebody else specifically is less material to whether I understand who you think is the best flip for the game and why, and whether you're taking action to make that happen

I know you indicated a townread on Shea, so for me it's like - would you vote obscure? Why or why not? If not, why are you seemingly ok with him being at risk of lim and not pushing any alternatives that you think are better?

in a realistic sense voting obscure and then obscure flipping red would go a decent way towards weakening my scumread. I just won't have any reason to townread you until I can start to believe that you are trying to eliminate mafia

[GuiltyLion]

like, from a cynical lens I could make the argument that you purposefully withheld your vote and did nothing while several wagons built and then lost momentum, thus depriving us of any tangible information on how you felt about any of those players and wagons

it's anti-town play through and through

[GuiltyLion]

That's a terrible claim and like wildly unfortunate if it's somehow true lol. But it's just so convenient a scum claim that I have to consider it scum. I'm on the yeet the tweet train now

[GuiltyLion]

Maybe this is unfair to think but I do kinda think Gamma is the type to soft a role like that, and I don't recall anything of the sort

[GuiltyLion]

I've had a lovely weekend get together in Portland with a bunch of old friends

now buckling up to watch Lamar and the Ravens get revenge on Miami this fine Sunday morning

scumflip to cap things off would be pretty sweet

[GuiltyLion]

Also scum should have shot the even night vigilante?? Lol

I did a cursory review of Gamma associatives with skitter/obscure and thought it looked not great. Dann also had a distancing vibe imo

I'm out on errands rn but will spend some time playing and writing it up tonight

[GuiltyLion]

Oh wait I got that backwards lol nvm

Thought marci made last night's shot for some reason

[GuiltyLion]

Anyway yeah will be back when I'm not hastily phone posting at cvs

[GuiltyLion]

Also scum should have shot the even night vigilante?? Lol

no, this is mechanically better if they don't have a block, as it lets vigis get only 1 shot off, not 2

would it be dumb to think this is townie for gl? very likely yes

Yeah I wrote that post without thinking in my excitement for thread unlock, I thought marci made the shot last night mixed up which vig was which

I am the scum deepwolf mastermind this game, don't tr me for this

[GuiltyLion]

here's my gamma->skit/obscure thoughts

Spoiler: early gamma reads

Towny: Ausuka, Relly, Marci, Ari

Scummy: HEM, skitter, scamper

gamma opens with a scumread on skitter but doesn't vote it or explain it, despite other people calling skitter town early game IIRC
we could also consider a rule of three here since HEM/scamper both very likely town

Spoiler: weird gamma/obscure interaction

Gamma calling me and HEM scummy in 487 feels weird to me. i acknowledge i'm probably biased, but i'm pretty sure i would've read skitter's posts as townie anyway, and HEM is one of the most townie people by far. scamper is also among my top towns for something i noted before, so their whole group of scumreads feels bad, and like, i'm not seeing their perspective at all, which could mean they're mafia.

This feels like a hokey attempt to cloak an OMGUS read

This interaction is awkward both ways. obscure SRs Gamma for bad reads but again in that slightly LAMISTy way of "I TR the other two players

and I'm town

, so Gamma is scummy"

and Gamma replies back calling it OMGUS but still isn't voting or pushing the slot at all, it's actually her first interaction with obscure

Spoiler: Gamma's Next Move

I also see Frog and obscure being pally, kinda makes me think I’m onto something
VOTE: Frogsterking
I’ll go here first because I think there’s better traction here

And then immediately votes Frog instead? The "traction" comment was odd as well because this was the VC at the time:

Gamma Emerald (4): Irrelephant11, fireisredsir, Frogsterking, Nero Cain
GuiltyLion (3): skitter30, DeasVail, Dannflor
Dannflor (2): humaneatingmonkey, GuiltyLion
Irrelephant11 (2): Datisi, Aristeia
Firebringer (1): VP Baltar
VP Baltar (1): Ausuka
obscure (1): Firebringer
ConManMick (1): scamper
Aristeia (1): ConManMick
Frogsterking (1): Gamma Emerald
Not voting (3): marcistar, xofelf, Ydrasse
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-09 23:15:00). With 20 alive, 11 is needed to lim and 10 to no lim.

for due diligence I'll need to check what the context/thread vibe was in terms of people's reads but it's hard for me to buy that there was really any traction on Frog at all at this point.

Spoiler: Anther bad obscure/gamma interaction

Gamma calling me and HEM scummy in 487 feels weird to me. i acknowledge i'm probably biased, but i'm pretty sure i would've read skitter's posts as townie anyway, and HEM is one of the most townie people by far. scamper is also among my top towns for something i noted before, so their whole group of scumreads feels bad, and like, i'm not seeing their perspective at all, which could mean they're mafia.

This feels like a hokey attempt to cloak an OMGUS read

just googled.

OMGUS stands for "Oh My God, You Suck (for voting for me)!". it is sometimes used as a shorthand to indicate that you are voting for someone primarily because they voted for you. It is a behavior often associated with inexperienced players.

but i think my reasoning was more complex than that. i acknowledged that the personal bias may have played a part, but it was also just drastically seeing things differently as a whole. even if i'm wrong on my townreads on HEM/scamper, i would sort of expect townies not to see so much so completely differently. what was your early reasonings?

I gave reasoning for both previously

This just feels like a really lifeless reply - like if Gamma thinks obscure is a viable miiselim, and obscure is town on the right track, why go with a blunt dismissal instead of trying harder to discredit obscure or make him look bad?

Spoiler: D2 gamma reads

The dogpiling jokes aside I will give something_smart a chance to get involved in the game I suppose.

VOTE: Gamma

Gamma who are the scum and why

Marci
One of you/obscure
humaneatingmonkey
And maybe someone else

Still sticking with the obscure scumread surrounded by likely two townslots, still not really pushing or voting obscure

and then TSQ calls Gamma out for not pushing either of HEM/obscure at all really, and Gamma's response is to SR and vote TSQ

so despite claiming to scumread skit/obscure slot for the entirety of two days, Gamma at no point cases it, votes it, or does anything to move it along, instead choosing to park a vote on TSQ

Something_Smart (6): GuiltyLion, Frogsterking, scamper, fireisredsir, Ydrasse, humaneatingmonkey
obscure (3): Dannflor, Thestatusquo, Ausuka
Thestatusquo (2): Gamma Emerald, Datisi
DeasVail (1): obscure
marcistar (1): DeasVail
Dannflor (1): Nero Cain
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, marcistar, Enchant
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00)
Mod notes: this was right near my school

Something_Smart (5): GuiltyLion, Frogsterking, fireisredsir, Ydrasse, humaneatingmonkey
obscure (3): Dannflor, Thestatusquo, Ausuka
Thestatusquo (2): Gamma Emerald, Datisi
DeasVail (1): obscure
marcistar (1): DeasVail
Dannflor (1): Nero Cain
Nero Cain (1): Enchant
humaneatingmonkey (1): scamper
Not voting (2): Something_Smart, marcistar
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00)

[GuiltyLion]

that said, I'm also still fine with a S_S wagon and flip instead lul

[GuiltyLion]

im not, like, saying its *impossible* tweet got bussed by someone but i wouldnt just assume it by default

yesterday at the time I thought there may be a busser cause a) vig game and b) the wagon on MT felt like it kinda sprung up with confidence fairly quickly, but then when I reread a bit last night I realized Tweet was pretty scummy and I just hadn't really been paying attention to that thread of the game, and the only slots I'd really consider for bussing are Dann/fireisred

and Dann's opening today felt kinda townie

I had a TSQ/Gamma paranoia for a moment but independently TSQ feels pretty townie to me and I think there was one Gamma post I thought felt really unpartnered, let me see if I can find it again

[GuiltyLion]

shea, is there a reason why you're pushing primarily gamma for that, when i feel like multiple people this game could fit that description to a similar degree?

Because gamma is the biggest example to my mind and also the one I think I might get some traction on.

Who are the others in your mind?

No one is interacting with what I'm saying or taking me seriously so if the way I have to get my reads actually considered is to be elimmed then thats what I'll do.

I doubt anyone is going to consider your reads very heavily if you get elimmed, especially if you go out doing this.

The exception maybe is if you start yelling "AFTER I DIE KILL X". But if you want to do that, at least try to push through X today and force a 1v1.

Tomorrow look at Gamma with any degree of seriousness.

I also am low key worried about ydrasse, something_smart, guiltylion, dannflor

Don't feel like getting into a 1v1 because I don't feel strongly enough about any read to do that.

this feel incongruous to anyone else?

I think it was this

it feels neither meant to anti-associate gamma with TSQ nor meant to pick a theatrical fight with them

instead it feels like scum discrediting town to me

[GuiltyLion]

@Frog - meh, I don't think they're especially hard to fake or demonstrably town-indicative? I'm not great at reading S_S, I chronically scumread him except perhaps HDP where I mistakenly townread him when he was scum, I feel regardless of his alignment he tends to float around and take shots at bad reasoning without doing much proactively himself. I suspect he takes care to play the game similarly as either alignment, most of my central reasons for not liking his slot are FB's play.

but yeah I don't really see any of those posts as especially hard to imagine coming from scum. 5103 is just him describing his mafia philosophy. 5118 is a hedgey read on DV that ultimately says DV's read "doesn't make a lot of sense", but it's hard to parse whether S_S thinks that's actually AI. 5204 is just shading DV, I don't even think I really follow Smart's thought process, like DV basically took a very unsurvivalist stance by turning down an obscure wagon/vote - sure, we maybe shouldn't TR that since it could be scum!DV taking a risk, but again, does Smart actually scumread DV or is he just telling you not to TR him? Does Smart

actually want DV limmed??

That's the question he should be answering that he isn't.

all that said, I feel obscure is scummier than S_S if I had to choose between the two. I mainly just have issues with FB and no real reason to think S_S is town.

[GuiltyLion]

Well, I have to imagine that if I were on a scumteam with someone who repped into a slot being wagoned, they would probably look to me for claim advice, and I would probably provide it. Or at least I would say "lol don't claim that, it will be really obvious you are scum" and she is probably the type of person to listen.

this isn't a bad point

[GuiltyLion]

I just skimmed up and I feel Mena's reaction is townie

especially the "wait my slot claimed lol" post

I need to work for a bit but I think I also need to reset on this game a lil bit

mindlessly rolling into a Smart wagon is probably not

bad

but I should probably look harder in the Dann/fireisred/DV group

[GuiltyLion]

well be the change you wish to see in the world? what could I do to help you read me better?

dude I've been telling you for games if not years

vote
participate in wagons
make it clear what your reads are

[GuiltyLion]

i am literally rereading the game (and in the process getting reminded of irrel's play) but i am not making a final judgement until i get there and also all my posts have a point, even if it doesn't seem like it

oh speaking of this, your 5758 reminded me of another thing I saw as a disassociative between Relly-now-TSQ & Gamma

the vote with "I'll explain later" (aka the "2 points isn't 2 points" method) reaallyyy doesn't vibe to me like an agendapost

[GuiltyLion]

that was a joke referring to LeBron famously saying '2 points ain't 2 points [...] I can explain it to you later'

[GuiltyLion]

but yeah basically I didn't think Relly would drop a somewhat random vote on his partner with no explanation while promising explanation later, just doesn't strike me as how someone with a scum mindset would play that

[GuiltyLion]

GUILTY LION

what is your read on me right now this second

town

I was rereading your ISO a lil bit this morning and I don't like the way you kinda hold Gamma at a scumread at arm's distance

but the rest of your reads align really closely with mine overall so, don't wanna go there today

[GuiltyLion]

Trying to save Gamma?

ftr if I was trying to save Gamma, I wouldn't take my foot off the gas on obscure at a critical juncture

[GuiltyLion]

I actually do think people should have me in the POE if they're playing the game safely, the fact that I haven't drawn a lot of direct attention is a little weird, I don't think my associatives with either scum are all that townie from a neutral eye and there are a few slots that are just blatant town in light of both scumflips

@Nero I think if there is a gunsmith, with multiple vigs, it could be 4 scum + traitor. or some other form of cop-or-vig-immune scum

[GuiltyLion]

Is this what you're seeing D2, Nero?

possibly. I actually really hate his explanation in 5350.

Not impossible that it's just a bad read but its still

If it helps, my last two games I remember playing with gamma, she was obvscum in the first (Situation Room) to the point where she got yeeted D1, and then in Eurybia's Curse she was town who I waffled on townreading but ultimately eventually scumread her so aggressively that she replaced out in direct response. so I think I was hesitant to SR her here because I mistakenly SR her last game and the scumgame prior to that she was obvious, felt like I should have something better on her if she was scum

[GuiltyLion]

there are a few slots that are just blatant town in light of both scumflips

what slots do you consider these to be

Nero, Ausuka, then I guess it's not "in light of flips" but I have you+scamper as unassailable town

[GuiltyLion]

actually one other thought on mech / # of scum

would it be weird / non-normal to have a mafia vigilante

because that CSF shot was really quite bad and if CSF doesn't die soon that would be worth a look imo

[GuiltyLion]

like you scum read me pretty strongly at one point

I don't really remember this? I was pushing you pretty hard but I don't think I was ever very confident in the read

idk I haven't felt especially great about any of my reads this game. I have you as like, probably town, but not bet the game on town and not worth looking at today. that's gonna drive me to not "sort" you directly much unless you say something that is completely bonkers / alarming

[GuiltyLion]

and damn, i was hoping you had someone other than nero/ausuka/me/scamper as obvtown

I'd like mayyyybe throw TSQ in that tier as well, but if it was exactly you five at 5p they'd be the first to go

I'm a little at how they moved me from "extremely confident" I'm town in 5783 to "could be convinced" I'm scum, but that's probably just me being reactive

[GuiltyLion]

ausuka hasn't really bolstered my town read in a while but her day one was still pretty towny

I remember she pushed baltar

was there another reason she's spewed town in light of flips

I think the Ausuka/VPB D1 interactions are almost never scum-scum

and I think she felt uninformed about Gamma

[GuiltyLion]

@gl, i was hoping you'd have some sorta thoughts on 5950?

I don't like that he made the post itself at all, like it seems like the kind of thing I wouldn't expect him to do or expect to be useful because it's WIFOMy self-meta, but I actually kinda like a few of the points he made? Specifically that scum!him wouldn't ask a question like 2981, I think that's a decent point that if he were scum he'd know if HEM claimed already. overall it feels like he's putting forth the idea of "scum!me wouldn't play for towncred like I have", which on one hand I'd be a fool to just completely take at face value but on the other hand feels kinda genuine in that scum!him probably is more worried about how that comes across, that fits with my experience of him

[GuiltyLion]

Nero, Ausuka,

Why isn't TSQ here?

I'm also not the biggest fan of Ausuka. She pushed VP and Dats and has felt like she's just floating in the wind.

idk, as much as TSQ protests I can't turn off the small part of my brain that says they were

extremely

confident that Gamma was scum in a way that didn't really match my own reads and perception

could be town hitting on a right read, I'm certainly not going to lead off with paranoia / bussing narrative, but that paranoia does exist for me. I think the best argument for town!TSQ is that it would be suboptimal overall to bus another teammate so early in the game, but yeah, I would not bet the game on TSQ town over you or Ausuka if it got to an endgame question

I'd obviously have to review Ausuka again at some point if it did come down to that, but yeah I've just sensed nothing off from her whatsoever at any point

[GuiltyLion]

and I think she felt uninformed about Gamma

I mean, you also said that Gamma wasn't informed.

ok... is your point here that I should actually be re-evaluating Ausuka? or are you just trying to make me feel pressure over the reads I'm giving because I was wrong about a different one.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think I was extremely confident that gamma was scum? I was I think the same level of confident I usually am when pushing my scum reads.

I called it out at the time:

TSQ I get semi frequent pings of townie righteousness but I don't think it's really out of a capable scum range and I do think there are enough ?? points in both Relly's Reads and Shea's Reads that make them worthy of some suspicion. Namely I don't really vibe with Shea's confidence in their Gamma push. However the fact that I'm getting mixed signals makes me afraid of this lim as it feels like if it's a miselim it's the easiest one for scum to get.

I think it was mainly the assertion that Gamma wasn't interested in the D1 elimination and that this didn't match your meta experience, the idea that Gamma "doesn't play like this as town" based on D1 of this game. I thought she did seem somewhat invested EOD1, certainly invested in at least engaging with marci, and I thought she gave a fairly plausible explanation in defense. But your perspective was posts like this:

And can someone for the love of god please talk to me about gamma and the meta.

ig this doesn't include me but what are you specifically talking about w this?

You don't play like this as town. You do not frequently show no interest in the elimination day one. Every experience I have with you does not match that description of your play and you're acting like its some obvious thing I should know because of a team game I was not even a part of ignoring the two examples of contrary play in order to do so and then claiming that the change happened like recently so how is it even relevant?

or this:

And can someone for the love of god please talk to me about gamma and the meta.

ig this doesn't include me but what are you specifically talking about w this?

You don't play like this as town. You do not frequently show no interest in the elimination day one. Every experience I have with you does not match that description of your play and you're acting like its some obvious thing I should know because of a team game I was not even a part of ignoring the two examples of contrary play in order to do so and then claiming that the change happened like recently so how is it even relevant?

I literally sold my vote to the highest bidder in TM2021 D1
TM2018 was back when I had tons of effort to play with, and Among Us the mech aspect drew me into things
Like, you're trying to claim I'm scum for not playing like a game from 4 years ago when I feel like I have had meta shifts happen multiple times over
And like, you said meta is trash earlier, and have been derisive of meta pretty evenly this game, so what the fuck is it about your case that makes it exist above that decree?
VOTE: TSQ / Shea
I feel like there's too much out of place in how you're treating me here. I wanted to rustle marci's feathers a bit more but that'll have to wait.

this is a giant misrepresentation of my point. My claim isn't that you are scum because you arent playing like games from 4 years ago, my claim is that you're scum because you don't care who is eliminated. The meta point is simply because you told me that this is normal for you and I sincerely do not believe that it is.

at the time it also felt weird you were singling Gamma out specifically, which you explained with this:

Like most of the others I can think of are either replace outs with weird participation patters or people who are otherwise difficult for me to understand in general (marci being the biggest example here) but I feel like even in those cases gammas absolute lack of interest in being part of determining the flip day 1 stands out as the most egregious case but I'm interested in hearing who else you think fits that description.

[GuiltyLion]

Has anyone looked at fireisred/gamma interactions yet?

I am going to do that at some point today (realistically probably late tonight) but I'm thinking about a fire vote myself due to lack of appealing options elsewhere currently and it feels like fire's wim has kinda gone down as the game has gone on

fire what are your overall opinions on the GammaTweet lim, like do you think that was all town and scum got caught off guard or do you think there's any scum who were angling to look good off it

[GuiltyLion]

I'll explain the vote later
and I don't fault you for not remembering anything I've done, I've not really tried to do much because it's not my MO in large games to actually do a lot early

ok so gamma says this

and basically eira has done nothing at this point and is getting replaced so there was no reason to delay explanation so this just seemed extremely fake to me. i did not believe that there was genuinely a reason that gamma could have that would not need to be explained right away (see 1447)

relly then did this:

VOTE: Gamma will explain when I have more time

which i thought was clearly referencing the "will explain later" from gamma that made no sense and so i was like "ok yes, nice, let's do this" and voted gamma

and then relly's explanation later in 1882 just felt kinda flat and wasn't at all what i thought it was so that was kinda weird btw

later gamma's explanation seemed kinda bad but idk i started to doubt myself eventually bc i felt like i scumread gamma for similar things in frenemies

oooo this is a good catch

the danger of doing ISOs and not a full context read... I did not pick up that Relly's vote may have been a jab at Gamma

[GuiltyLion]

actually yeah that whole sequence is probably very +town for Dann

[GuiltyLion]

@Nero - when I had just ISO'd Irrelephant and ctrl+F'd gamma, I thought it was unlikely that he would drop a vote on a teammate and say "will explain later" as I virtually never see scum do that and it doesn't suit any tangible agenda

given the fuller context that

Gamma

had actually already done similar, if Relly was just trying to meme on her with the vote, it creates a possible explanation of scum being cheeky with their vote on a buddy. even regardless of Relly's alignment it explains where the motivation for that phrasing comes from, which makes it a bad reason to TR that interaction

[GuiltyLion]

ok after this i went and reread shea's iso for how he handled gamma and while i do think that the constant insistence on making sure everyone knows exactly how much he's always wanted gamma elimmed and everyone told him no is weird, i don't think it's an especially likely path to take as scum so he's probably town

when I was rereading this earlier I also noticed shea was fairly vote-hoppy despite claiming to scumread Gamma throughout, they vote Smart with their first vote, then Gamma quickly after, then themselves in a fit of AtE (but saying to still look at Gamma after they die - could be WIFOM), then DV, then Fire, then obscure...

so I dunno, I don't think it's as hard of a bus as TSQ implies

[GuiltyLion]

i think that's true but id rather treat him as town for now ig, maybe im just lazy

yeah, I mean I think trying to talk yourself into that kind of narrative when there's still compelling off wagon suspects is bad play by the probabilities, I mainly just kinda want to push back on full TSQ townclearing cause I think if we get down to the point in the game where most slots have died off and they're still coasting on "can't be scum with Gamma" you have to look more critically at whether that's really true or not

it's one of those things that's town like 70% of the time but shouldn't be the be all end all if other stuff isn't adding up

[GuiltyLion]

6111 is about 6106, not 6107

my thinking in 6107 is that bad empty Eiralox vote and Datisi's point in 6100 makes me think Gamma/Eiralox is not S-S

[GuiltyLion]

like if Gamma is actually the original one dropping a random unprompted "will explain later" vote on Eiralox, that makes me think Gamma/Eiralox is not S-S

if Relly then memes that phrasing in direct response for his Gamma vote, it doesn't mean anything, cause I could see that as cheeky scum!Relly voting Gamma using her original vote as a joke reference

[GuiltyLion]

I've cooled on the idea of a fireisred vote

I liked Menalque's entry and I liked that Shea had the same reaction in 5921, like that post basically exactly aligned with my feelings

so if Shea is town then I feel like my intuition + another townie having the same response is good reason to not vote Menalque
if Shea is scum then I find that more likely to be a white-knighty read
either universe makes me not want to vote Mena

I don't know if scum!Frogster does a whole dog and pony show about digging into whether scum!GL unvotes obscure the way he did

I don't really have any votes that call to me other than Smart, but I don't have anything damning on Smart, just the fact that his playstyle is hard to townread and I didn't vibe with FB and that I've been stuck with that slot in my POE the whole game

so uh, yeah

[GuiltyLion]

scum vote each other all the time and I don't think Relly saying that he'll "explain later" is something that scum could never do.

I do feel like scum do vote town with explanations like "will explain later" but we know Gamma was scum (and Rellys reason was weak) is it not possible that Relly was just attempting to make Gamma look like town should he flip?

no, my point was that it WOULD HAVE BEEN if Gamma hadn't said the same thing like 10 posts prior

[GuiltyLion]

oops, quote bug, was responding more to 6137

but yeah I think - had Gamma not said the exact same thing earlier - scum voting each other would have more of an agenda to it, especially since Relly had been voicing a scumread/desire to vote Gamma throughout but hadn't explained it in any capacity up to that point.

[GuiltyLion]

Frog what do you think about the idea that Menalque appeared to genuinely not know that his slot had already claimed VT

do you think that Menalque did know this and was bluffing/lying
or do you think he got lucky with the exact same fakeclaim

cause if he's scum it has to be one or the other and neither feels correct to me, especially since other players have expressed similar doubts that he was aware of obscure's VT claim

[GuiltyLion]

town: {Nero, Ausuka, Datisi, Scamper, CSF}
eh, maybe there's a scum in here, but probably not: {Ydrasse, DV, Dann, Frog}
don't want to lim today but wouldn't be totally surprised: {fireisred, Mena}
would lim: {Smart, TSQ}

I think the more I look at other slots the more TSQ scum actually makes sense? I dunno I'm hesitant to push it unless the appointed town leaders wanna go there cause if it's wrong it feels more likely to be damaging to town win than a Smart flip, but my current worldview doesn't have a lot of room for scum and fire/Mena have both made townie feeling posts today imo

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Something_Smart

[GuiltyLion]

do you think that Menalque did know this and was bluffing/lying

what is difficult to imagine about this

i don't think it's very unlikely that either (1) scum!mena did a quick iso of the slot he replaced in, (2) scum!mena got told in the scum pt that his slot claimed vt

and lying about it is very easy to do

and considering i know you're aware of scum!mena's caliber, i am Skeptical that you somehow think this is town-indicative for him?

eh for me it was just the timing of the way he acted like he forgot/didn't know the slot claimed, I'm not saying making the correct VT claim in and of itself is town-indicative, rather the execution of how he carried out that whole sequence of real time interaction with scamper

if he's scum it was very smooth, like I guess I just disagree with you that making the sequence of posts 5803, 5807, 5809, 5813, 5817, 5818, 5842, 5851 in real time over the span of 15-20 minutes is "very easy" to do

I haven't been scum in a year+ so maybe I'm overestimating the difficulty but idk I'd be anxious making all those posts and I don't sense any anxiety in them

[GuiltyLion]

idk i lowkey feel like
he knew the thing was a gambit
like he seems *too* calm for a townie that just potentially got a guilty fakeclaimed on them

yeah I mean like, if he doesn't come back here and keep up appearances it's gonna quickly decay as a reason not to lim him, and if you think it's scummy then I will take that into account and not put much stock into it.

maybe I don't give him enough credit, I just think if it were me I wouldn't have thought to also pretend I wasn't aware my slot had claimed post hoc in that way

[GuiltyLion]

@Datisi there's also the element of a few other people saying similar things (TSQ, Smart, I believe fire said they thought it was a good reaction though still fakeable), so in my mind either multiple townies were wrong (possible but less likely) or scum were defending him. especially since Mena already said Smart was townie, I could imagine scum!Smart not wanting to piss off a potential ally. I'm not sure I wholly believe Smart believes he can accurately read Mena just based on his play so far

[GuiltyLion]

ok fine - how well do you think you can read mena

I would say, better than I can read most people. I recall one game, cursed though it was, where I was pretty much the only person to (correctly) call out Mena as scum. Of course I was not in a position to convince anyone, but when am I ever?

That's honestly the main thing that's making me feel this way, so I don't know how accurate it is. But I don't think I've played with scum-Mena many other times (and I can't recall ever confidently and incorrectly scumreading him), so I guess I have an okay read rate historically.

like, in my mind, S_S is the titan of doubting reads, not putting too much weight on things that aren't AI, not being sure of his own play or others

but all of the sudden he's like "yeah I correctly scumread Mena one time so I have an okay read rate historically"?

[GuiltyLion]

...I mean, did I use "historically" wrong? My read rate on him in past games has been better than chance. It's very rare that I'm the only person in a game to confidently scumread someone, so it's pretty noteworthy to me when I do that and am correct.

I'm being unfair and conflating two ideas

I can buy that a) you believe you have a decent read rate historically

I can't buy that b) you think you have enough data in this game to have a firm read on him

but I'm realizing just because you said a) doesn't mean you've actually said b) at any point and the question you were responding to was more directly about a)

so I think I'm wrong on this point

[GuiltyLion]

Datisi I'm proud of u for following my patented "reading MT" method

reads would be hard to give when I've read approx 0 of the game

I do also think this was weird

ok I think I'm talking myself back into Mena
VOTE: Menalque

[GuiltyLion]

damnit Ausuka I literally just convinced myself to switch off S_S

[GuiltyLion]

and I also don't think they are scum together that seems rlly unlikely

What makes you say this? I agree it's unlikely in a general probability sense but I don't think I've picked up anything that feels anti-associative between the two and I've been struggling with feeling like I'd probably want to flip both regardless of how the first one flips. I'm curious if you have something more here

[GuiltyLion]

my tinfoil theory is that menalque is a busy man but also playing a lot less lately and like maybe it's a wolf slot and he's like "okay i can do this" and then he remembers how soulsucking it is to be a wolf lol and then vanishes

it is truly the most soul sucking thing

every game is a dice roll on whether I'll be spending weeks of my precious free time feeling anxious about being manipulative on the internet

[GuiltyLion]

SS can you explain why Nero is scum to you cos I really don't see it

He's trying to chain lim me and Mena and prevent people from reevaluating. Of course town-Nero can do that, but it feels pro-scum.

this is maybe me grasping at straws to try to have a Novel Thought or parse meaning out of new information, but I loosely feel this is maybe a slightly +town post? Because as Nero pointed out, other players have at times suggested they'd go for the chain lim (I said as much directly myself last night) and I kinda feel scum!Smart would be a little more aware of the logical inconsistency in singling out Nero alone

although on the other hand I'm not sure if it would really be a pro-scum move if Mena is wolf? and like at some point wouldn't town!S_S see his flip as at least useful for the gamestate, or does he think being eliminated won't give people more info to find the actual mafia

[GuiltyLion]

if you have thoughts on it I'd definitely like to hear them

It's kinda still not clear to me if you actually think Nero is scum or if your vote was a protest vote on town you feel is playing badly. and if Nero and Mena are town in your mind, do you think scum are more likely to be splitting wagons or pushing for one particular wagon over the other?

forgive me if you've directly touched on this already and I've missed or forgotten it, you can quote old posts if you have them, I've only skimmed the most recent pages and I'm still absorbing caffeine for the day

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm sometimes I feel we just think about this game so differently S_S haha

knowing for a mod-confirmed fact both you and Mena's alignments would help everyone revisit the game and get closer to a correct solve if need be imo. even just knowing Mena is

for sure

a wolf would be a lot of new info

[GuiltyLion]

for the record I do think skitter's push on me was bad

saying scamper diidn't "merit" a vote on like the first 10 pages, and then the way she acted surprised that I was harping on FB jokevoting being scummy

she should be familiar enough with me to know that's just how I play. I also think we constantly lock horns in every game so if scum she may have felt pressured to artificially emulate that to some degree

[GuiltyLion]

i am eagerly awaiting to hear more abt gl's scamper vote on the morrow

What about my scamper vote?

and this is partnery imo

[GuiltyLion]

I don't care about the claiming scum thing I don't think it speaks to me as something AI

Firebringer was scummy because at no point did he ever indicate serious effort or inclination to scumhunt

also I think the part Frogster is calling attention to is the "I don't care about gamma", that seems like a possible signal to the scumteam that he's not a threat (if we're running with this traitor theory)

[GuiltyLion]

even if he flipped scum it wouldn't make me look better. (It would, in fact, make me look worse.)

but like, if he flips scum it would get us closer to winning the game

and we still have several miselims available so limming wolf!Mena into town!Smart would not be game-losing

[GuiltyLion]

Anyway, I’m not sure I like GL’s progression into voting me after thinking I’m likely town and seems like he’s kinda transitioning onto one of the easiest elims as I became more viable due to inactivity

Why do you think scum!me would choose to do that instead of staying on Smart?

[GuiltyLion]

Like this felt a bit jarring, and sure admittedly I haven’t been around but given our history etc I kinda would’ve expected you to ask me (à la Datisi) for further clarification here especially given that you’d expressed a lack of desire to lim me before and were actively pointing out things that were bothering your re:S_S right beforehand

I think you're maybe overestimating the degree to which I was townreading you, before you started playing I posted a big thing on obscure/gamma associatives and was voting your slot most of yesterday. I did like the ease at which you claimed and tried to reeval with that in mind, but then Datisi pointing out that he thought scum!you could fake that combined with you dropping off definitely weakened my confidence in it

I appreciate the explanation though I don't think this is unfair

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - I appreciate the explanation though,**

The lack of comma might change the meaning of that last sentence which is not intended

[GuiltyLion]

Oh, I think fb ~generally~ when scum = having more fun, seems like is enjoying game etc. This is amplified imo if it’s people he likes playing with, and I think there’s enough old hands here who I’m p sure he gets along decently with (like sure there’s no MariaR or RC who I remember him particularly liking) but I would expect him to be an order of magnitude more excited if he were scum in what, to him, would be a good PL

This is wonky to me though. Do you have reason to believe FB doesn't have fun when he's town?

Like I buy that FB generally likes playing scum and can have fun with it, but I don't see why any of this reasoning wouldn't apply to him as town either? So if his lack of enthusiasm isn't scum-indicative, I don't think it's necessarily town-indicative either, unless you have an understanding that FB doesn't like playing town. Which doesn't really vibe with my prior experience with him

[GuiltyLion]

idk I kinda feel like

if

they're both scum, then they're in a position where they're forced to defend each other. bussing at this stage isn't gonna net significant towncred and they wouldn't really have a team left, possibly losing outright if both are flipped.

that's not an argument

for

them being scum together, but I don't see this "townread and refuse to vote each other" play as clearing or T-S if one flips red

[GuiltyLion]

individually i feel like both could be scum and i don't really know how to tell which one is. maybe my heart still doesn't believe that obscure was scum. or that skitter was scum. if i was only reading mena then id prob think he's scum so...idk, maybe the previous two just played it well

heh, I'm kind of the opposite, I have more reasons to townread Mena than the other two. I still think everything I posted about obscure in 5362 and 5627 holds up

I wanted to give Mena an opportunity to redeem the slot but if this is the level of effort/engagement he is going to offer then I don't think I'll ever get to a point of comfortably townreading there even if it is town

same feeling about both feeling scummy and not being sure how to discern between them though - every time Smart comes back to thread and chooses like one tiny particular thing to comment on or react to, it makes me want to yeet him for not proactively offering thoughts on the gamestate at large, especially if he is so concerned about a double town chain lim, he's barely doing anything to convince us not to do it

[GuiltyLion]

wait did I miss something on why we switched from Mena to S_S

I'm fine with either I just don't understand the momentum shift on the last page

[GuiltyLion]

any last words Smart?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still in the Smart/Mena both scum camp

[GuiltyLion]

well I'm curious if you wanna keep talking and posting in twilight

scum don't usually wanna do that

[GuiltyLion]

if people didn't listen to me while I was alive why the hell would they listen after I'm dead

also like, come on

a green flip would give your words a ton of legitimacy that they don't have currently

[GuiltyLion]

this is my jam at the moment, jamie xx never misses

[GuiltyLion]

not gonna lie I'm probably still just gonna be on Mena

I think his reasoning on FB!town felt motivated rather than genuine

[GuiltyLion]

well yeah of course if he flips town I'm not gonna blame you

lion's (pun intended) share of the blame would be on me for townreading scum and having a faulty limpool

smol amount of blame to CSF for a bad vigshot

[GuiltyLion]

ConManMick

(11):

Ydrasse

,

Aristeia

, Irrelephant11, Ausuka, Datisi, scamper,

Gamma Emerald

, humaneatingmonkey, DeasVail,

VP Baltar

,

ConManMick

Morning Tweet

(9): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Dannflor, fireisredsir, Datisi, Ausuka,

Ydrasse

, scamper, Frogsterking

Something_Smart

(8): Ausuka, Cat Scratch Fever, DeasVail, scamper, fireisredsir,

Ydrasse

, Dannflor, Nero Cain

some quick takes:

Ausuka, DV, scamper are on every wagon. That can obviously come from town, it's not a case by itself, but if the game starts going off the rails I'd look in those slots for a deepwolf because imo that can occur from scum who aren't threatened by the gamestate and aren't yet worried about how they look on a flip

I wouldn't be surprised if there's scum on the front half of the MT wagon, I'm probably gonna need to revisit DV & Dann slots today

I'd wager there's probably at least a scum off the CMM wagon as it was probably largely town driven (especially if you accept Datisi/scamper as soft cleared town) and already had two scum hopping on the back half

I think maybe Dann, DV, or Ausuka are highest risk of being blindspot scums for me, and I'm suspicious of them in that order descending

Part of me wants to push through on Menalque since I still want to see that flip, but if CSF agrees to shoot there I'm down to explore elsewhere today. I think CSF being alive combined with the Enchant shot is maybe mildly suspicious but most of all I think it indicates scum were more threatened by the unknown of Ydra's role than the unknown of where CSF might shoot. or possibly they had info on Ydrasse from a rolecop or something

[GuiltyLion]

is anyone strongly TRing Dann, and if so, sell me on it? I need to re-read his ISO but I think my reasons for townreading him are probably not good

[GuiltyLion]

mena/lion would be wildly fortunate in how the day ended yesterday

I haven't gotten my way yet on a desired flip this game, which is a weird feeling it doesn't usually happen to me. although I was okay with Smart so maybe I should half count that if I'm being intellectually honest

also I don't rly think fire is scum

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think scum!fire has incentive to campaign so much for Smart yesterday, also I reread his ISO and it's just generally more town than I thought

[GuiltyLion]

actually ehhhhh I'm probably jumping to conclusions too quickly

[GuiltyLion]

I wouldn't be surprised if there's scum on the front half of the MT wagon, I'm probably gonna need to revisit DV & Dann slots today

Why are you skipping over me?

I still have you as solidly town overall especially based on interactions with flipped scum and I'm not at the point to do a full reset yet

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think scum!fire has incentive to campaign so much for Smart yesterday, also I reread his ISO and it's just generally more town than I thought

ik i'm prob annoying but what can you do

why do you think scum wouldn't campaign for s_s, and *what* about his iso is so town?

It's probably not great to answer this explicitly but I feel like I have to with you continuing to follow up at this point

I thought fireisred and Ydra looked like masons together based on their early interactions

But then later I saw the Ydra post where she had fire in a vigpool, so nvm that was probably wrong

[GuiltyLion]

is my reasoning still weak when it's been proved to be correct?

You get why this is bad, right?

Have you never seen scum give an implausible townread on a player bc they're informed that slot is town?

I also maintain your reason for townreading S_S was bad, if you want to you should reply to my 6993 and explain why any of your reasoning shouldn't have equally applied to town!FB

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have an answer for you I was literally just trying to hint I thought he was Mason

When I am awake and caffeinated I will try to reorient myself again

[GuiltyLion]

Feels like Dann is making a mountain out of a molehill here, like in your own quoted words there's a "probably" in there so I'm not sure how assessing Ausukas confidence in their reads will really affect your read on them

Also @Ausuka if it helps at all I just think it's weird knowing my own alignment and seeing all three wagons go through without my vote

P-edit: @Dann can you highlight the parts of Ausukas progression on GE you find suspicous?

[GuiltyLion]

I'll let Ausuka respond but I guess I'm not seeing what kind of "feeling" would be townie vs scummy in your mind as it relates to this comment/topic. Like is more certainty in a solved game scummy or no?

[GuiltyLion]

hey everybody, haven't read up at all, work week been kinda intense but I should have some time later this afternoon/evening

I want to sit down and review associatives with Gamma/VPB and re-establish the players I absolutely do not want to lim today, then narrow my thoughts from there

but also spoiler alert I'm probably still gonna ultimately land on Menalque unless I find something really clearing in skit or obscure's ISO, which I didn't manage to do last time I reread it yesterday

[GuiltyLion]

fire I'd like a bit more from you on whether you see my interactions with VPB more in the zone of "this

could

be theater" or if it's more of a "this

isn't

" T-S" type of read

basically like are you specifically seeing it as explicitly likely to be scum-scum or are you just seeing an absence of things that would clear me as town

because I recognize as scum I play for disassociatives and theater is important so I think general paranoia/suspicion there is warranted if you can't rule it out, but it's a different claim if you're gonna say "this looks like theater and here's why" and I'd want an explanation for that if it's that

[GuiltyLion]

definitely on the side of this is explicitly S-S tho!!

alright well uh, it's unfortunate that you landed on the wrong conclusion so looking forward to seeing how you got there

[GuiltyLion]

our goddess says that we are supposed to flip fire today!

oh shoot I forgot about this and actually unironically support it

1986 still a good post imo

p-edit: I also townread Gamma

[GuiltyLion]

I also still maintain that Gamma wasn't really that wildly outside her towngame

I can accept that a town!Shea hit correctly there and I think is likely town that zeroed in on something important that I missed/disregarded, and MT's rep in was scummy by her standards, but I still think in a general sense scum were probably self-conscious of mounting suspicion on Gamma and I would say more likely would have wanted to get ahead of that one and maneuvered to do so

[GuiltyLion]

DeasVail (6): fireisredsir, Ausuka, marcistar, Frogsterking, Enchant, obscure
obscure (5): GuiltyLion, Datisi, Nero Cain, scamper, Dannflor
humaneatingmonkey (2): Ydrasse, Gamma Emerald
Thestatusquo (1): humaneatingmonkey
fireisredsir (1): Thestatusquo
Morning Tweet (1): DeasVail
Not voting (1): Something_Smart
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

Morning Tweet (5): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, Dannflor, fireisredsir
obscure (4): Datisi, Ausuka, Ydrasse, GuiltyLion
DeasVail (3): marcistar, Enchant, obscure
Thestatusquo (1): Cat Scratch Fever
fireisredsir (1): Thestatusquo
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, scamper, Morning Tweet
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

adding a note to self to also reread between these two VCs and see what happened

[GuiltyLion]

Wooooo we're back!!!

I'll have the #content that I promised on Friday at some point today

I'm not really seeing the scum motivation to post 7517, if fire is scum who wants to push me it's so easy to ignore that post or wave it away, if he's genuine about thinking that's town then ether this is a deep deep ploy for towncred emulating how he'd play as town, or he's just town. I've done somewhat similar before as scum when I realized I couldn't in good faith push who I wanted to push but never after faking a 223 page reread and never over something as singular as that as far as I can recall

like I said before I do think the strategy I want to employ here is to re-establish my townreads based on interactions with flipped scum and then go from there, I just haven't taken the time to sit down and do it yet

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not really seeing the scum motivation to post 7517, if fire is scum who wants to push me it's so easy to ignore that post or wave it away, if he's genuine about thinking that's town then ether this is a deep deep ploy for towncred emulating how he'd play as town, or he's just town. I've done somewhat similar before as scum when I realized I couldn't in good faith push who I wanted to push but never after faking a 223 page reread and never over something as singular as that as far as I can recall

GL, this feels kinda surface level as a take. I think scum generally like to give some "room" to be wrong on their pushes if they are pushing town. Especially fire, who seems generally lack strong conviction in his reads this game, I think would definitely qualify any push he was going to make.

Like... Thinking this is a deep deep ploy for towncred doesn't seem like a real thought? It doesn't seem that deep? Especially because he apparently still thinks your scum?

What am I missing here?

does he still think I'm scum? I was kinda assuming that he wasn't going to push me after that

I'd agree with you if he had just noted it as a reason to maybe be unsure, but he calls it a straight up townslip and I don't see how that suits a scum agenda at all unless it's exactly/specifically that he changed his mind and decided pushing me was a losing proposition and wanted to walk it back. But I think that scenario a) requires more assumptions and b) is something he probably wouldn't have only decided after the whole "I'm rereading the game!" narrative, so ergo it's just likely town

[GuiltyLion]

actually though on that note

dann almost there.

fire can you talk about anything you picked up on in your reread that pushed Dann to town for you? he's a slot I intend to fully reset on

[GuiltyLion]

oh yea i def still think GL is scum that post just made me doubt myself but idk

so if you think I'm scum what was the point of 7517

like if you don't earnestly think that's a townslip, then you're just posturing

[GuiltyLion]

short answer on dann is that the way dann played especially around flipped scum just reads like he doesn't have any scum motivation, and on reread i p much just believe the things he's saying come from town

this also a weak reason to TR someone buuuut my reasons for TRing Dann were also pretty weak in hindsight so I'm gonna evaluate this for myself

I recall Dann's interactions with Gamma not at all being clearing though? like he loosely holds Gamma as a scumread but never pushes momentum there IIRC

[GuiltyLion]

GL, can you elaborate on some reasons you are suspicious of me? I have generally liked your read progression on me but looking back im realizing it is largely a vague “towny with a pinch of deepwolf read”

Which isn’t shade exactly my reads have been fairly nebulous too but im wondering if there are specific reasons im a scum candidate for you or if its just the lack of anything clearing in your eyes

I aim to do this tonight when I do a full re-review of VPB/Gamma ISOs again and reread of some of D2/D3 knowing town!Smart

honestly the big top level reason is I really don't feel like I have a good grip on the game, I am definitely townreading scum somewhere even in best case ez game world where Mena is scum, and there's a lot of carry over inertia paranoia on you from Eiralox rep out + your awkward entry + general fear of you being good at wolf

I don't think I have great reads and I want to kinda rebuild a foundation of townreads before really pushing anything today if that makes sense

[GuiltyLion]

DeasVail (6): fireisredsir, Ausuka, marcistar, Frogsterking, Enchant, obscure
obscure (5): GuiltyLion, Datisi, Nero Cain, scamper, Dannflor
humaneatingmonkey (2): Ydrasse, Gamma Emerald
Thestatusquo (1): humaneatingmonkey
fireisredsir (1): Thestatusquo
Morning Tweet (1): DeasVail
Not voting (1): Something_Smart
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

Morning Tweet (5): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, Dannflor, fireisredsir
obscure (4): Datisi, Ausuka, Ydrasse, GuiltyLion
DeasVail (3): marcistar, Enchant, obscure
Thestatusquo (1): Cat Scratch Fever
fireisredsir (1): Thestatusquo
Not voting (3): Something_Smart, scamper, Morning Tweet
Day 1 will end in (expired on 2022-09-18 20:44:00). With 17 alive it takes 9 to eliminate.

adding a note to self to also reread between these two VCs and see what happened

Dann one other Concrete Thing is this

very much speaking off the cuff here because I haven't actually reread this portion of the game as well as context before it, but my general worldview is that it's likely there's a wolf who knew MT was scum and wanted to get some towncred (or at least, avoid scrutiny) off that flip, especially if they sensed it was at risk of happening once MT repped in. We went from no votes on Gamma to 5 votes on MT and I would wager more often than not there's scum in that group of five, especially since the tail end of that wagon was Datisi/Ydra who are virtually-conf town and conf town each

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - made a mistake above, missed & neglected to mention DV was voting MT/Gamma slot, so the more accurate statement is we went from one vote on MT to five, larger point remains the DV wagon just died out of nowhere. especially suspicious that Frog in particular went from voting DV to DV's chosen wagon, I need to review that progression as well, I have no memory of why Frog was on DV in the first place

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion I feel like I don't really have a good sense of who you want to lim.

Other than like, you seem to want to flip mena generally speaking.

Not sure if that's because you haven't said much about it or because the game was paused while the site was dead and everything fell out of my head.

no, you're picking up on the very real thing that I myself don't have a good sense of who I want to lim

I came into today fine with defaulting to the Mena wagon but since CSF is alive and we get another shot I don't think we actually have to do that, and I think it'd be good to at least entertain other options

my general sense is that there's prob a scum in fireisred/Dann/DV, with like Frog or Ausuka as total wildcards if I'm way off (mainly based on VCs bc I townread their play), but I haven't taken the time to review and reread and firm up how I feel about them, and I am struggling with the classic "the more they post the more I townread them" problem. I suspect once I reread I'll find some reasons I want to latch onto and hold as reasons to TR select people in this group

but once I actually sit down and reread stuff tonight I'll try to figure out how I feel and then communicate that to you

[GuiltyLion]

also I was kinda hoping fireisred would have posted his grand Mena/GL case by now

I'm interested in seeing and evaluating that because fmpov knowing that it's wrong it just seems like kind of an absurd argument to make, especially given d3, but I also feel scum who knows I'm town would also be aware of that too? and how it would age terribly upon my flip? So I'm still not sure I understand what hypothetical wolf!fire's endgame plan is here unless he's just going day by day and thinks I'm the best available option at the moment

p-edit: oh yah I forgot about that post lol, yeah Ausuka town

[GuiltyLion]

but i do think that even just looking at how he handled flipped scum vs flipped town you can see how the ways in which he used his vote was p opportunistic

what do you define as "opportunistic"?

[GuiltyLion]

also I'm gonna start rereading and figuring out How I Feel now

[GuiltyLion]

irrel/shea and dann both i started to feel more town based on that. irrel d1 was p good knowing where the poe is now and who has flipped what. also looks unaligned with GL cause i think he kinda nailed it in his early callout of what was off about GL's vibes. dann's entrance was actually quite good in terms of pushing in places that probably have scum, same goes to shea, and both i think just lately haven't felt like they're positioning to protect scum or angling to gain cred in any way, they're just doing their thing and i think they're town. i can pull posts to go more in depth if people really are interested in my thoughts there but idk if it's super necessary rn

wait hold up it's super necessary lol

this is just a giant ball of circular reasoning, is it not? You say you think Relly/Dann are probably good because they're pushing on probable scum (Frog/Mena/GL), how is that anything but just assuming your conclusion?

particularly this:

both i think just lately haven't felt like they're positioning to protect scum or angling to gain cred in any way, they're just doing their thing and i think they're town

is like... astonishingly weak analysis coming from you here? based on how I know you to play as town

and to be clear I'm not saying I've put forth a lot of

better

analysis yet, but like, man this is underwhelming reasoning for Dann/Shea town. I happen to agree on Shea town but like I'd like to think I could write up a bunch of better reasons this "just doing their thing"

[GuiltyLion]

I might be with you on Frog though. I'm rereading and re-evaluating but I have a growing sense that if I have a bad townread that's throwing off my gamestate view completely it's probably frog. Especially if I can get there on town!Dann

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno like maybe we're in the world where it's Frog/Mena in which case I don't wanna get in a big fight with you over simply me being offended at being scumread, and I wanna read your case

if you wanted a good faith reply from me, what are things you'd like me to address specifically. cause just skimming it now I'm already disagreeing with things but I don't wanna like, deconstruct everything if it's a waste of time

[GuiltyLion]

actually you know what I don't hate the case on me

it's wrong but I don't hate the major points you're saying overall

[GuiltyLion]

it seems like the main thing you're stuck on is my on again/off again treatment of obscure in terms of when I'm pushing and voting him and how that correlates to things happening in thread

I think some of that was just unfortunate timing and me being hesitant and unsure of a read there, like I didn't want to just fall for a trap of scumreading his absence from thread but I also kept gut holistically scumreading obscure in totality while having moments where the occasional post would give me that "maybe this is town" feeling. I think you're kinda over-estimating how much I actually ever townread obscure, especially once I re-ISO'd in the 5361 and 5362 posts

but yeah I can definitely imagine how if obscure is scum then me calling to wagon him and vig elsewhere looks suspicious, that's fair.

re: why I wanted obscure after HEM claimed, I can't recall entirely what the gamestate was at that point and will need to reread what was going on specifically at that time, but I think I was trying to look at both worlds where obscure was town and where he was scum, and I thought if obscure town HEM looked like an appealing candidate, and then as soon as I had good reason to throw that out it pushed me to default back to my original scumread. I was never in a state of wanting a DV lim or liking that wagon, and I kept waffling/waiting on S_S to do shit, so obscure was the most appealing option to me

I dunno, if I need to die because I fucked up and couldn't decisively nail obscure scum, I can make peace with that. but I would definitely want to actually go through Mena first because if he flips scum it puts us in a stronger position anyways and the better parts of your case are built off of pre-flip with him anyways. I think you miss the mark on your analysis of my engagement with VPB but I'm not sure that's worth fighting over

[GuiltyLion]

- trajectory on obscure is p questionable. kinda feels like after vp flips he realized he was townreading all of his partners (see 2034) and that wasn't sustainable so he needed to find one to suspect

I do take offense to this specifically though

the idea that I would just suddenly realize only on D2 I was TRing all my partners and that it wasn't by design

[GuiltyLion]

lol

[GuiltyLion]

I agree with Dann btw I hated that first fireisred post about townreads but the scumreads posts are very good, even the case on me

[GuiltyLion]

the main points for me here are that i think GL has just mostly been gently helping scum, in the directions he chooses and the places he chooses to push back on someone's read vs choose to accept it.

overall like I think, especially if obscure/Frog is S-S, this is just true

it doesn't make me scum in this particular game but it's a fair statement and I get how he would arrive at it

[GuiltyLion]

anyway I'm going back to rereading the D2 momentum shift to Tweet

the only thing I noticed there so far was that fire was pushing a {ss deas dann shea} pool in 5211 which is very different than the pool he's at now but I kinda feel fi scum with agenda he would actually be more consistent and more rigid in pushing those options and that worldview, especially cause most of them could still be viable scumreads & pushes

I want to trace where the DV scumread evaporated but I think the pivot overall is +town

[GuiltyLion]

yeah

I think rereading this part of the game, Frog's vote on Tweet is the worst

the only other thing I wanted to call out, if we're in late game and I'm dead and gone and we're still trying to find last scum, I want this noted:

But also I think tweet is probably scum

so vote there?

so vote there?

I think I am already

the snap questioning by Nero, I could easily see it being town, but I could also see it being scum trying to bus and score points without need/incentive to properly sort DV. so something for future reference

@fire I don't think you should put a ton of stock of shifting momentum after Gamma replaced out cause, it could have been a planned bus as soon as Tweet saw the red role PM and didn't have the WIM, and I also think with vigs in play scum need enough towncred to not be a vig shot
I still wanna read a lot more but the appealing worldview to me is Mena > Frog >>>> (if game continues) Nero

[GuiltyLion]

I think the Baltar associatives for Nero were good though, I need to reread those but Baltar felt very awkward explaining why he wasn't fighting with Nero and I sorta believe him when he said if they were scum together they'd probably ham up a shitfight

felt very much more like Baltar was playing around Nero

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like either of them but I like the one on GL marginally more

How does this make sense when like the majority and best points of the case on me are predicated on you being scum

[GuiltyLion]

I don't like that Mena post at all really

You have DV/Dann/fireisred as scum in your readslist, fireisred comes in dropping mega cases on you, Frog, and me, and that's the level of your reaction? To say you don't like the cases except you marginally like the one on me? Just feels like you have no urgency in your response when your view should be that scum!fire is basically taking control of the game

[GuiltyLion]

probably because i mentally slotted frog as "way too annoying to be scum, next" and am sticking with it.

If it's a Frog/Mena team he probably has to be annoying to try to stay townread against a formidable townpool

[GuiltyLion]

Also, every trio of 3 friends has a Blossom, Bubbles, and Buttercup. It is a law of the universe. Sometimes you are a different girl depending on the trio, but the dynamic always holds in every 3

[GuiltyLion]

Eh ok, I've been reevaluating on Frog myself and it really does slot a few things into place that weren't making sense for me (POE pool too narrow, finding scum on the Tweet Yeet). I kept wanting fire to be that scum for me but never felt like it made sense really and Frog being scum, especially based on his associatives, makes a lot of sense.

[GuiltyLion]

(assuming my read on Dease was tinfoil.)

Frog can you explain when and why your Deas read shifted, you were scumreading him on/off a lot yesterday

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Menalque

I'm done waiting around for him to do more than he has and I think his latest non-effort felt like a white flag

I want to graduate my townread on Dann from "lazy" to "well justified" but frankly still haven't committed time to do it rigorously yet, but idk the Mena/Frog theory just feels appealing, even if there's a fifth scum the conf pool is large enough that I'm not really worried yet

[GuiltyLion]

yeah that was what stood out to me

he chose to scumread frogster with the most level 0 read you can read frogster's opening post

Pretty sure I scum read frogster for something similar the first time I played with them. I'm so out of the loop right now, but frogster is an acquired taste that can result in strong negative reactions at first, imo.

I did recently find this post again which is pretty janky and looks partnery with Frog imo, esp if town!Dann

Dann scumreads Frog over something HEM calls "level 0", and VPB jumps in to defend Dann by saying Frog is easily scumread - sneaky tacit defense of Frog, sneaky sneaky

the alternate explanation is this is a bid to pocket both Dann and Frog in one move, but is Frog really a slot that needs to be pocketed D1? why not just not get involved at all if town!HEM and town!Dann are fighting about Dann's scumread on town!Frog

[GuiltyLion]

wait I am probably smooth brain but if you have CC to CSF how is it not always strictly better to just claim here now so we can yeet CSF

then Titus can shoot wherever and we stop trying to solve the game based on bad foundations of CSF town

[GuiltyLion]

I cannot tell

might also explain my lack of scum reads

basically this, like my approach to the game winds up often being really bad whenever scum is erroneously cleared

[GuiltyLion]

I wonder if Titus is vig neighbor with CSF, and Nero and HEM pulled a thing where HEM claimed Nero's vig shot, but now with Masons outed Titus is thinking her neighbor is probably scum

[GuiltyLion]

didn't somebody forget at some point that HEM had claimed a confirmable vig shot

I wonder if I can go find that again

[GuiltyLion]

gah does anyone remember this or am I just making it up? I feel like somebody at some point threw shade at CSF or had her in their scumreads, and then someone else was like "uhhh did you forget her claim" and then it was dropped and I want to find that and reread it in light of potential scum!CSF, but I don't remember who it was or when it happened and have no idea how to trawl through the thread to find it, especially since my memory of it is so vague

does anybody remember the thing I'm talking about

p-edit: oh maybe it was that

[GuiltyLion]

no I don't think it was either of these posts that I'm thinking of, but it's possible I'm just inventing a false memory of something that didn't happen

[GuiltyLion]

AH YES THAT WAS IT!

thank you Dann

anyways, I dunno I don't want overreact and put too much stock into it but I think on the whole scum is more likely to forget a buddy's fakeclaim like that and default to shading the slot (especially given the replace out) vs town who would basically bank HEM as town and then remember why they did that

[GuiltyLion]

didn't the even night shoot enchant tho am i making that up

yeah

odd night marci shot VPB
even night (Titus?) shot Enchant

we all said that was weird and a bad shot and CSF never explained it

I dunno what Nero was doing but my best guess is yeah he wanted to live and make hero shot N2 and shoot CSF N4, and scum prob shot at Ydrasse on N3 thinking she was maybe the vig

the one thing that's wild to me is how did HEM know to claim modified vig if he's scum
scum must be informed in some way or have a doc or BP something

[GuiltyLion]

it would totally explain CSF's play though, on full anti-spew mode knowing she's living on borrowed time

[GuiltyLion]

ydrasse really does look like vig who didn't believe HEM's claim in retrospect ngl

that's what I thought at the time, but then when CSF didn't turn up dead I figured she was legit

[GuiltyLion]

If Titus is vig and slow playing this, I really don't see why that's advantageous to town, I would like to just flip CSF today and let Titus have free reign to shoot wherever she wants

I feel like my whole gamestate view is borked I don't know if Mena is a good wagon if scum!CSF

it might still be but I wanna reread first
UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: csf

[GuiltyLion]

I know this is not great and I'll probably be limmed anyway, but if you have to any questions, i can try to answer them

yeah I got a question, who are your scumbuddies and how many of you are left

[GuiltyLion]

*sweating nervously*

[GuiltyLion]

Idk the analysis that this would make me buddies seems pretty surface level because it seems to forget almost willfully that every time i forgot it was in the context of wanting to Lim them.

I'd want to eliminate my buddy too if they were on borrowed time anyway and doing fuck all

So your claim is that i hard bussed my one buddy. While opposing the Lim of the townie y'all ran up yesterday while forgetting my other buddies claim so i could Lim them too.

Interesting theory my guy.

to me, bussing is less material than the fact that you seemed to forget the claim in 6529. I have a hard time putting myself in the mindstate of a townie who at one point knew HEM/CSF slot claimed vig and then later forgot that fact. It's comparatively much easier for me to imagine scum making that mistake, because they don't actually need to 'sort' CSF, and (assuming CSF flips red) are aware the whole time that the claim was a lie.

[GuiltyLion]

Also I thought Dann's post about me, Dann, GL and fire all feeling forced to suspect each other but not wanting to was cute <3

I'm good with hammer I get to finally be on a winning wagon

[GuiltyLion]

Whoops, accidental quote, was thinking about replying to that and didn't. But yes I thought it was cute too

[GuiltyLion]

I think the biggest downside of early scumflips result is that they give less useful associatives/interactions, especially in 9p setups with a 2p team

like if you imagine a mafia game where it starts as 5 people and only one of them is mafia, that's hard for town to win if the scum player is competent, there's so little actual tangible information

[GuiltyLion]

looking unaligned is the most important thing, bussing and killing your partners is one way to do that (and probably the most straightforward) but it's not the only way

[GuiltyLion]

hey everyone - read up on everything from today so far but haven't done any rereading. My gut says it's Shea but I'd like to dig through VCs again and double check for reasons to look elsewhere, namely re-evaluate Frog in light of CSF/Mena confirmed flips

I should have some time to play today!

[GuiltyLion]

maybe i'm just confbiased but i do still think it's fire here

on this though, I don't see why fireisred pivots back to indicating a TR on me at end of day yesterday if he's scum

like if he's scum and he knows CSF is going to be outed at some point, and he is gunning for me as a miselim needed for late game, why does he start walking that back once CSF is exposed (7795, 8036), it doesn't strike me as playing to agenda at all

[GuiltyLion]

I should have some time to play today!

so this turned out to be a lie

I'm sorry guys, work and other life stuff (my wedding is in less than a month :O ) is kinda kicking my ass this week, and I keep putting off this game because I feel like I shouldn't Do Stuff until I have time to Properly Do Stuff which I haven't really had yet

I'll read up on what's been going on since my last post, I think at one point I skimmed it yesterday afternoon, and give some hot takes, and hopefully hopefully tomorrow I'll actually have a chunk of a couple of hours to do some rereading / digging and thinking

[GuiltyLion]

I'm a VT btw

[GuiltyLion]

In a world where I am town and fire is scum I have been right about my three primary scum reads in gamma, obscure, fireisred.

Please give me just the fucking most tiny modicum of credit.

Shea I don't know if this post is useful at all but honestly I'm more suspicious of people who are super right because a lot of people like to distance/bus and because being Too Right is often evidence of being informed imo

so I understand it's frustrating as town being suspected while being constantly right, but you could reframe it as being So Good People Think You Must Be Informed

town!you has definitely had killer reads this game, my reads have been pretty erratic and bad lol

[GuiltyLion]

I also think Shea would play it a lot cooler in terms of his "good reads" as scum

I know at first with the Gamma flip I was a little leery and thought it was like, scum who was mad about not getting bus credit

but I think after a certain point scum is way more conscious about that and wants to wait for people to give them credit. town has a certain pride in their reads that scum does not have, scum just wanna get town read.

I think most people know that saying oh look how good my reads were over and over doesn't actually get you town read

I vibe with this

[GuiltyLion]

thanks!

I'm almost caught up now. gonna mull over fireisred. I still don't really understand why he would 180 on me the way he did as scum unless he's just really trying to emulate his towngame and also to pocket me. but I could be a fairly viable lim candidate even with CSF/Mena flips so why suddenly work to undo that, it doesn't feel like he has a path to winning that doesn't go through me in some way

[GuiltyLion]

re 8096 i kinda don't expect scum to be so blatantly opportunistic as to shade and target all the miselims they're going to need? assuming there's 1 scum, they are quite a way off and like trying to actively create paths to all those miselims just sounds like it would be too blatant

oh I guess I should have literally read one more post so I could respond to Ausuka directly lol

my thing is like, why

start

shading me and then stop, though. like was that all a calculated trajectory? or was it like an "oh shit I need to pivot on GL so not to piss him off" kind of improvised thing?

I'd buy your point if he hadn't already written a gigantic case on me, one that I felt was actually fairly well thought out on the whole

[GuiltyLion]

i also think the way he kept like going on about how incompetent people are for wanting to give mena time and complaining about the masons doesn't really feel partnered. like, i expect scum to bus their partners a lot, but on average i don't expect them to be outright hostile around the topic of their partner?

also idk if I'm scum and I'm committed to the bus at that point I'd absolutely do this, or something similar. I don't see it as significantly outside the realm of fakeability.

(I need to actually go read the day/posts in question again though)

[GuiltyLion]

how much of that case became void once csf and obscure flipped?

well one slightly weird thing is that a lot of it was predicated on obscure being scum, so I'd kinda expect that to continue to apply with an obscure flip

but there was a specific sub-section on how fire thought I was trying to:
a) push HEM and shade obscure but not push an obscure wagon
b) switch to pushing obscure as soon as HEM claimed vig

if you assume town!vig!HEM, then the idea is that I wanted towncred for pushing obscure while not really putting him in danger directly, but once vig was out then if we wagoned obscure that would give me towncred and shield the other teammates and that would possibly be better for scum as vig might then shoot town or a PR or something

once you know both slots are scum, it'd be a bit weird for me to tell my fake claiming partner not to vig our other partner and just wagon him instead, so that whole pillar of it does kinda cease to apply

[GuiltyLion]

Morning Tweet (8): DeasVail, Nero Cain, Frogsterking, Dannflor, fireisredsir, Datisi, Ausuka, Ydrasse

I still really deeply believe there is likely to be scum on the front of this wagon

and I still think frog's progression from townreading Gamma to scumreading Tweet was stilted and weird

I should go back and reread fire's progression again but I don't remember seeing any issues/concerns with it when I first did that exercise previously

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Frogsterking

H-O-L-Y S-H-I-T

Rolling Mason is such a negative utility because it makes guys play like total brick heads

have fun winning D9 or whatever when you FINALLY kill all the scum

Thank goodness Menalque got fucking shot and Gamma exited so you guys stopped hard defending scum

Frog, have you ever self-voted as town before?

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno my heart is really not in fireisred, I think he's genuine and I think he's right about frog

it feels like a lot of stuff people are clearing Frog on amounts to singular Gamma posts and reasoning that "he wouldn't group his buddies this way" or something similar. And those types of points are far less substantial reason to think he's town than it's being credited. Whereas I feel fireisred has a lot more believable trajectories and doesn't feel like he's enacting an agenda with them. I know I've gotten pushback but it just feels bizarre to me that fireisred would write several posts of a giant ass solve & case on me (7651, 7652, 7653, and 7657) and then just immediately drop it when CSF gets CC'd. if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I don't sense any kind of contingency plan for if CSF dies, I feel like actually fully reversing on his scumread on me when there was an unexpected buddy going down just isn't necessary and is kinda bad play when he's scum, it's ceding ground exactly when he needs ground. the biggest benefit would be if he did it with intent to exactly pocket me like this, but then I don't feel like he's appealing to me to save him now either