Overkill 1: Serenity/Firefly (GAME OVER)

[Jingle]

Thor not even in the top ten of superheroes.

Also congrats to the both of ye and your SOs.

[Jingle]

Thor not even in the top ten of superheroes.

Also congrats to the both of ye and your SOs.

he's in my top 3. /end friendship.

Not even the best God themed superhero.

Marvel's Ares, way cooler.

[Jingle]

if your going God Theme, SHAZAM! has been a particular favorite of mine.

(Shameless DC over Marvel fan here)

Flashpoint Shazam > Regular Shazam > Thor

Marvel is usually better than DC character wise though.

Also also Congrats Thor and Cheeky!! =D

Lol just to clarify I wish I was marrying Thor he's the best superhero and all but alas I'm marrying a lovely mere mortal. Thanks!

My phrasing sometimes is just shit XD

Congrats to both of you and your respective mere mortals!
Also, Thor is probably the third best Avenger. Well...that's tough to say. He had by far the best individual movies in the series but Cap is simply the best and I have a soft spot for Hulk. They did bring in the Guardians tho and like, they are pretty awesome! But do they count as avengers?? Hmm... I need to think about this.
Oh Shit and then there's Dr. Strange and his amazingness! He almost Rivals Cap for first spot!
GDI!

To the best of my knowledge, none of the GotG have ever joined the Avengers. Worked with a few times, but never joined.
Also, pretty sure that Dr. Strange only ever joined the Defenders, and his function there was as a glorified taxi most of the time.

But yeah, Caps in the Illuminati and all of the Illuminati is better than Thor. Assuming of course we ignore the recent "Cap's really a Nazi!" storyline, cause that was pretty awful.

And... we should probably save this discussion for the post game or GD or something.

[Jingle]

I'm not sure what HoB is short for but otherwise I agree with this post of Jingle's

HoB is short for Hands of Blue. They're confirmed to be a 2 man scum team with a traitor via the traitors flip.

Flavorwise, the traitor was a member of the Alliance and the Hands of Blue are the wetwork team of Blue Sun, which means the Alliance and Blue Sun are working together this game and any additional scumteams are flavored around other factions. Like the Reavers or Niska's crew.

[Jingle]

*cough*Superman isn't a character*cough*

[Jingle]

Assuming one of those town'clears' is right, that means we have at least 3 scum in the remaining 10 players. Based on the strength of my reads at the moment, I feel very confident in our ability to lynch scum out of those ten players. If any more 3rd parties would like to come forward and claim, it increases those odds further.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Comics/Superman isn't a Character

Superman in the movies sucks. Clark Kent is literally the Model Paragon in Fiction that inspired basically everyone in-universe to be a better person when his character isnt butchered to become Hitler.

Don't diss the Supes.

Superman isn't a character, he's a set piece. He is goodness personified, a moral paragon, and always right. There is no growth, change, or meaningful development. He doesn't learn anything, he doesn't advance as a person, and all of his "challenges" are caused by Deus Ex Machina or continuity issues.

When he's portrayed as broken (Flashpoint), less than perfect (Kingdom Come), or villainous (arguably)(Red Son) he becomes a character, but otherwise the interest is always in the characters interactions with Superman rather than Superman himself, because Superman is always going to be good. Yes, Smallville is a good example of an exception, but that doesn't disprove the trend.

Within DC, compare that to a good character, Shazam. He's also a paragon of good, but he struggles to be the best he can be. He demonstrates flaws, grows, and develops throughout the books.

Compare that to the Marvel "Supermen": Adam Warlock, just as Deus Ex Machina-y as Superman, just as boring. Sentry- Literally his own worst enemy. His overwhelming power is tempered not through inexperience, but through a struggle with mental illness and substance abuse that humanizes him in a compelling way.

Batman- Iconic tortured hero/billionaire playboy. Struggles with unresolved emotional issues wrt his family and his inability to protect those closest to him. Direct comparison: Iron Man. Arguably Batman is the better character because of the Damian arcs, but I'd argue it's pretty close based on the merit of storylines like Civil War and Fear Itself that explore the motivations and struggles of Iron Man's character.

I agree that wagon consolidation is definitely where we need to be right now.

[Jingle]

Oh, btw, Elsa. You actually can't have that in your sig yet. I'm totally down with you sigging it, but you have to wait for the game to be over.

[Jingle]

I'm being very upfront about the why there. And be assured, I'll be more than happy to declare intent should I support whatever wagon gets gas.

I just don't believe in letting scum narrow down my mason buddy when leaving them hidden is crazy high town EV.

[Jingle]

Jingle, you and Gamma are Masons, correct? You two are probably my highest town reads at the moment, I need to check my sanity though.

No comment.

[Jingle]

Wtf is a chaotic neutral

DnD (and I assume other RPG) alignment. It works out hilariously though in this game with all the Neutral claims

Chaotic Neutral is a mental disorder, not an alignment.

It means one is neither working for their own good, nor the good of all. Their only hardline stance is an opposition to every form of authority of all kinds.

Also tails, how well do you claim to know me? I'm assuming alt, but level of expertise and era of said expertise would be helpful.

[Jingle]

Oh, also.

This needs to die. If this doesn't die, then you're all bad and you should feel bad.

VOTE: Tails

-Cerb

Elaboration would be nice.

[Jingle]

Maybe get up your partner's ass for inviting people to figure it out. I at least made sure everyone was on the same page,because if I can figure it out on my own, imagine what multiple players can piece together.

We've actually been watching people for that very reason.

CT had almost certainly figured it out, I'd be surprised if RR hadn't. Chara had not.

If Gamma died or didn't die, it gave us a chance to read those people. And leaving it to WIFOM so that scum had to second guess whether they were right or not was definitely the right call.

[Jingle]

Not cleared, just additional evidence.

If Gamma got shot overnight, for example, CT and RR would have been good possibilities for the scum who shot him. If Chara had suddenly reversed their read and dropped all suspicion of Gamma, it could have indicated one of their sscumbuddies pointing out the signs. Little things like that.

[Jingle]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

[Jingle]

Also, Chara is in my townreads list right under Cheeky, but I could maybe lynch there based on the power of PoE.

I fully expect there to be 1-2 scum in Toog, Tails, Chick, Flicker. I'd rather let those slots be handled by the likelihood of crosskilling or townflavors being made impossible if possible.

[Jingle]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

This is not a compelling argument for not lynching the slot.

-Cerb

The argument that I'd prefer scum kill him to town killing him, or the argument that his alignment becomes a known quantity given a Simon flip?

Because I'm totes down to leave him alive

tonight

on the basis that he might be Simon. Which incidentally, was the basis for leaving the slot alive

tonight

when I posted my (Don't lynch these mechanically) list.

If you have an argument that doesn't largely rely on 'It's a PoE lurker slot' I'd be glad to hear it. Til then I think "There is at least one scum team to whom that slot looks like a very appetizing kill because it has a high expected value to be a protective role" is a good reason not to lynch that slot

today

.

[Jingle]

VOTE: McMenno

[Jingle]

Plus they could totally be The Operative or Jubal Early and thus a SK type role, so removing them lowers the KPN of the game.

This, actually, is a point in favor of why they would be shot.

From scum who is not aligned with them's position, they're either probably a town protective, or another scumteam. Obviously, they'd prefer to shoot the town protective, but if they take out a member of an unaligned faction then it's not bad news for them because that's one less potential incoming bullet. The more unaligned scum teams there are (which, if you're right and the role is unaligned scum, that number is likely to be very high) the better the option of shooting other unaligned scum becomes.

Besides, that fails to address the issue that I don't think it's MORE likely for NR/Tails to be scum than say Menno or NDS. Just similarly likely. And it is MORE likely to be shot.

Also, KPN on town, at least for tonight, can be presumed to be 2.

[Jingle]

I literally just realized the value of crumbing HoB as HoB. I feel dumb.

VOTE: Tails

[Jingle]

I literally just realized the value of crumbing HoB as HoB. I feel dumb.

Care to explain it to me, then?

They had a traitor that didn't know their identity. If we assume that they were told their traitor wasn't told their identity, then signalling to them that NR was HoB would mean that the traitor could actually protect them.

[Jingle]

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum, and the flip acts as a check on Chick.

how long were you sitting on that one in your PT? :>

When did I first tell the game that the slot was almost certainly scum? Before that, obviously.

~D

...I totally brought it up first :/ guess you need to be RR to be taken seriously.

I remember discounting it as a scum crumb because why would scum crumb scum? I can't remember when, so I might well have read your point and then dismissed it because I didn't factor in the importance of the traitor.

[Jingle]

also your complaint is way funnier if you type out their name.

[Jingle]

In case both GE and I die tonight, Thor has high equity to be the other HoB.

[Jingle]

I'm sure I'm still scum somehow though.

Toog is scum because he's posted a happy prime number of times.

[Jingle]

1st of all, she's a reader.
2nd of all, pretty much the opposite. River has less of an idea whats going on with River than anyone else.

[Jingle]

Wait when TF was McMenno a Wagon and why? XD

A combination of PoE and a possible TMI slip by Sky.

I find the TMI slip to be unlikely to be AI, because my slot (Both me and tw), Toog, Chick, and Flicker all had similar posts.

[Jingle]

And also Porkens, tbf.

[Jingle]

Oh, hey. Long time no see. Nice to see you're still around!

I know you've seen me be super setup oriented before, but tbf the only game I can think of where you were there in the olden days for a front row seat to me being superspeccy I was scum (and in a hydra).

I could link you a bunch of games as both alignments if you want, but basically me not being setup speccy is slightly town indicative (Not worth a solid read) but me being setup speccy is fully null.

[Jingle]

I'm mostly retired too, tbh. I siteflaked for a year and a half and I've been trying not to sign up for games unless asked or I notice they're having serious problems with replacements.

Counterargument: Probable multiball.

[Jingle]

Dammit tails, you made me all nostalgic and now I'm rereading games from years ago.

[Jingle]

Now I want to steal Thor's hammer...

We did finally break the magical Jingle and Thor are opposite alignments tell at some point though. I think we have two whole completed games where we're both town!

[Jingle]

I've been referencing it for like two pages, so...

[Jingle]

2 teams + vig is likely.
1 team + 3 unaligned scum is possible.

Traditional SK is impossible.

[Jingle]

Additionally, it's possible for multiple vigs.

[Jingle]

3- There are multiple killing mechanics in this game. To mitigate swing; this public mechanic will apply: A maximum of TWO players of the same faction can die in the same cycle (D1/N1, D2/N2, etc). In the case where more than 2 players are set to die in the same cycle the one(s) that go though are determined through a pre-set process that shall be revealed post-game.

4- The game ends when either all threats to town have been eliminated or all town members have been eliminated.

^ Relevant to that.

[Jingle]

Traditional SK wins when they are the last person standing. The game ends when all town are dead or all threats to town are dead. This highly suggests that any and all scumteams can in fact win together.

Unaligned scum being possible, but less likely than two teams is based on the fact that a team of less than three people doesn't benefit from rule 3 at all. It's possible that that rule is solely for the benefit of town and HoB, but that seems like a needless handicap for unaligned scum when they already mechanically have a harder time winning than groupscum.

Numbers wise, 2 teams makes the most sense, because 9 town + 2 Neutral + 3 + 3 is 17. We have two reasonable neutral claims, a confirmed team of three via the traitor flip, and a flavor based on a group of exactly nine people.

[Jingle]

Is the argument here that Chick is not lying but she incorrectly interpeetted the clues regarding Tails slot?

Plus the number 2 thing?

Yeah, pretty much.

[Jingle]

I believe Chick's roleclaim without reservation.

If she's scum, it's more likely that she's unaligned with Tails, because making them both probable nightkill targets is a super risky move in a game called overkill. Particularly one in which multiball is nearly assured. If Tails is not HoB, Chick has high HoB equity, especially if Toog or Tails flip River.

[Jingle]

Her result on Porkens is strange and possibly faked. It's possibly explained by her being river (Porken's character could have been thinking about his team), but any other player's thief results being that just doesn't make sense. Not to the level I would advocate lynching her, because scum will have to kill the pseudocop role eventually.

Also, not really. Nico is exactly the slot I would have flavor copped as scum. Hardcore lurking can frequently mean PR, and PRs are presumably linked to flavor. Additionally, it totally makes sense as a target town would choose, so there's a chance she gets a bunch of towncred for outing a guilty on scum if she catches a member of the opposite scumteam.

Hmm. A thought occurs. It is possible that the teams themselves have the results, not the individual players. In which case, Tails could be any member of serenity.

[Jingle]

My official claim is Modified Day Flavor Cop. Once each day I can submit the name of someone and the mod will give me clues as to their flavor. Nothing is straight forward. It's all up to be deciphered. Hints could be something the character is associated with, or an event in the series where I interact with them, literally anything.

Nope. This is pretty obliquely player specific.

[Jingle]

I'm pretty sure everyone but Flicker can hammer. It'd be weird if we had multiple priests.

[Jingle]

3rd party is awesome tho. Oh, we can still be friends Mala, no worry about that. Just let it be known you are also the one I'm using as a Get out of Lynch free card for a day when they start wanting to kill off the Neuts.

You and Mala should play this game the way Cerb and I played in Protomen. We were a 3rd party faction with a partner who could win with the town (which you can do, and mala can

maybe

do if we power through scum quickly enough). We realized immediately that we could win with the town only if we won fast, and we nailed it.

Sometimes 3rd party really can play for town's win con. We certainly did with every intent (and success) right from the start of that game.

So ... do the same and we won't ever have to rope you to avoid you choosing the easy win if the game goes to a kingmaker or M/LYLO situation.

~D

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum,

and

the flip acts as a check on Chick

.

Huh?

If Tails flips Jayne, we can go: "Wait, wtf? How would videos of Simon and River lead to Jayne?"

[Jingle]

In case both GE and I die tonight, Thor has high equity to be the other HoB.

?

Operating under the assumption that Tails is HoB, Thor pushed TPFKAP over Nico pretty hard, when the summation of both cases was "They're lurking". It's why I initially was interested in him.

Preflip associatives and all that, but if the current RR theory is correct, it's worth noting. And we might both die.

If Tails flips town, we can't both die, because only one town will be able to be killed tonight.

[Jingle]

Sorry, I kinda gave up on explaining my tinfoils in the mason thread for now, because I don't see a reason to hide them at the moment.

[Jingle]

I still drink the kool aid there, just forgot him in my lynchables list. I think I’ve been conflating him and toog to an extent, tbh.

[Jingle]

Definitely less sure than I made myself out to be D1 though.

[Jingle]

Is that how you win Chinese checkers? If so, I think I’ve been playing it wrong.

[Jingle]

God I hope this game never ends.

[Jingle]

But do you have any video of the geese juggling?

[Jingle]

Only vote tags count. VCs are automated

[Jingle]

I’ll respond when the waters calm from finding out who you are. I don’t want to lynch you atm, but that’s fully NAI

[Jingle]

Nah, it’s a “I know I’m inclined to keep you around because of our mutual history, so I’m waiting to see if that mellows” read.

[Jingle]

If 3 of them are sk-light it’s possible.

I’m actually fairly certain we’re out of 3ps tho and was hoping to bait scum into claiming 3p with a lot of my posts today.

[Jingle]

I specifically didn’t read your overuse of prevarication as scum. I noted it as potentially scummy and through due diligence and a meta dive determined it to be null. I do suggest that being less waffley might help you be more convincing, but that’s not really important now.

Also, reaver groupscum is a possibility in my mind because they A. Don’t kill other reavers and B. Kill indiscriminately, leaving the possibility of cross killing open. Flavor has to take a backseat to the core of the game at some point.

Niskas crew makes more sense, tbh, as a groupscum angle, but they’re less iconic than either the alliance or the reavers. There’s also the crew mal fights when he’s running out of air in the flashback episode, but that’s fairly obscure.

There’s a bunch of potential 3p’s but none really strike me as fitting the mold particularly well.

[Jingle]

Neither rr nor ct have claimed.

Flickers claim isn’t protective, but rather negative utility. We probably have two protective roles (one town, one not) and a LR. Which seems reasonable.

[Jingle]

Pretty sure I’d already done it when I brought up the but thing. It was an out of game piece of advice because you were talking about your inability to convince people iirc.

The but thing raised flags, but was never actually part of my case against you because it turned out you do that as both alignments.

[Jingle]

Traditional SK wins when they are the last person standing. The game ends when all town are dead or all threats to town are dead. This highly suggests that any and all scumteams can in fact win together.

Unaligned scum being possible, but less likely than two teams is based on the fact that a team of less than three people doesn't benefit from rule 3 at all. It's possible that that rule is solely for the benefit of town and HoB, but that seems like a needless handicap for unaligned scum when they already mechanically have a harder time winning than groupscum.

Numbers wise, 2 teams makes the most sense, because 9 town + 2 Neutral + 3 + 3 is 17. We have two reasonable neutral claims, a confirmed team of three via the traitor flip, and a flavor based on a group of exactly nine people.

This is something I wish you hadn't said out loud.

Yes, smart scum will have realized this..but if we're looking at multiple unaligned scum, that is, single individuals...one person could miss it.

Instead of scum looking for one another in order to shoot, they'll be looking for one another to know who to *not* shoot.

:-/

-Cerb

If we’re looking at multiple unaligned scum they have a reason to shoot for not town anyway. If they all shoot town, most of their kills fail. If they shoot scum they can wager on fakeclaiming vig and there is less of a chance they die themselves later on. Incoming bullets are still a problem, especially when obvtown starts disappearing. People tunneling you are still a problem if they’re otherScum. If there are exactly two scum groups, as is likely, they might still aim for the other for that reason.

[Jingle]

Oh, also, I have a theory that if a reaver exists they may be similar to Mala in that they have a preset kill limit and they exit the game when said kill limit is reached, having sated their bloodlust. In which case, at least one scum will be actively looking to kill scum to ensure their kill goes through.

[Jingle]

And in inane nonsense news, Toogeloo now actually has posted a happy prime number of times in this game. And I am probably the only member of ms that would care about that.

[Jingle]

UNVOTE:

I need to ponder. You all may carry on.

[Jingle]

I'm actually reasonably sure that the videos mean Tails isn't HoB, having now actually watched them, FWIW.

He could be scum, but HoB is hearing hoofbeats and screaming zebra. There are no zebras in space.

[Jingle]

Also, while I don't disapprove of pressuring Chickadee, we're 150% not lynching there today.

[Jingle]

The HoB don't show up in the movie.

The first video is a trailer for the movie.

[Jingle]

From the Serenity wiki:

"In the Serenity comics, the blue "gloves" are shown to extend to and cover the upper body as well. They were finally killed when Serenity's engine flare incinerated them, and the Alliance passes the assignment to retrieve the Tams to the Operative, explaining why it is he and not them in the movie Serenity who is chasing them."

[Jingle]

Per the OP. I don't think anything from the comics should be considered likely inspiration for events/roles here, but it's possible.

That's entirely missing the point. The point isn't that they died in the comics. The point is that they were never even referenced in the movie.

The first of the two videos is about the movie. Entirely about the movie.

The characters you are saying make the most sense for the clue don't appear in the movie.

Therefore, said characters are unlikely to be referenced through specifically a clue centered around the movie.

I'm not disputing that the angle of "They're focused on Simon and River, therefore videos of Simon and River." makes sense. I'm arguing that including a video of the portion of the flavor for which the character is conspicuously absent is a shitty way to leave a clue about the character.

Your case is built on two pieces of evidence that I believe to be counterindicative. A result from Chick suggesting NOT HoB and a crumb from NR suggesting HoB.

[Jingle]

Scum LR would be insane right? Do we need to talk about Toog ever? I've been treating him like conftown since the claim.

Scum LR is possible. Toog's claimed reasoning for his use of the power is definitely town oriented. He's town pending flips/massclaim balance consideration.

[Jingle]

I disagree with the conclusion that the absence of HoB from the film means the slot can't be HoB.

It appears we've reached an impasse.

I should probably give more time to Drixx's post than I'm willing to give at the moment, so... toodles for now.

[Jingle]

My apathy is strong and I'm prolly not gonna catch up tonight because I love Netflix more than all of you. Sorry.

I'm around and will compromise on pretty much anyone I haven't expressed outright reticence to lynching should we need at deadline, including Tails.

Tails is not my preferred lynch. I'm man enough to admit that part of that is that I thoroughly enjoy playing games with him and that is coloring my perceptions.

[Jingle]

Tails, neither of us have a grudge against Nico, and I very much doubt she actually has a grudge against us. As a matter of fact, she invited our hydra to join her in another game she was in during the first day phase of this game. None of us have any problems with playing with the others.

None of that changes the fact that when faced with an overwhelming amount of *stuff* to deal with, such that she felt it best to suicide out of a game, she chose to stay in this game. Whatever motivation you want to ascribe to that is up to you.

@Gamma: Really Gamma? Mental gymnastics? Please tell me you're capable of saying more than that in an attempt to dissuade me from a position I'm holding.

-Cerb

Admittedly the meta dive was a while ago and focused on something else, but I can't remember NR voluntarily replacing. I do remember her being replaced for p-dodging many times, as both alignments. I could check if absolutely necessary.

[Jingle]

Sorry, Ari, but if you or Tails flips town the more important info from my PoV is who scum shoots and what character you flip as. If tails flips scum I definitely think Thor is suspicious based on how he pushed TPFKAF as an alternative to the NR lurkerwagon. If Chick and Flicker don't die I'd advocate a Flicker rolecop, because that one is the role with the clearest flavor/role relationship. I'd rather EJ not protect me tonight, tbh, because I think there are better options.

I think with the number of softclaims/crumbs I've seen in the thread Massclaim D3 might well be in order.

[Jingle]

I think he softed. But whatevs at this point.

I'm fairly sure I've caught softs from all but like three people at this point and I haven't even been looking for them, so...

More to the point, we can't lynch Menno because he replaced out. We could lynch LightEthos though, and that is a hammer I would throw if the wagon existed.

Also, tactical use of V/LA (Outside of completely transparent tactical use such as there are literally no posts I can make to further my alignment and I'm going to ignore this game now) either is or should be considered cheating. It's also completely impossible to check. I like to think that the people I'm playing a game with for fun can be trusted to not cheat though, so I'll never consider it AI.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Ari

BG claim buys Tails a day imo. At the very least, his role seems likely to just solve itself.

Tails, you should ask A50 if you're allowed to use ridiculous bullshit to crumb your target.

Specifically, number of letters/words/punctuation marks etc in your PM.

Like, there are between 0 and 40 words in my role PM after the word Chickenlicker. If that number is 1, I'll target blah, etc.

[Jingle]

FWIW, I agree that Chick should be the prime protection, but leaving a vague WIFOM open that she might not be is worth it.

And EJ? I'd protect Chick over Tails any day.

[Jingle]

The fuck do we have a vengeful claiming they’re going to shoot a bg for?

The fuck do we have a player targeting the town killing roles outside of scum for?

Both of those are incredibly stupid.

Also, lynching a vengeclaim, especially one that might solve mala is, yknow, optimal.

If ari venges in town, and is town, no town can die tonight. All protective should holster, and vigs become disloyal. Which means that they can pseudoconfirm town. Massclaim tomorrow, lynch rr or ct if they claim vt, vengekill me if you want to confirm gamma town. If we have two town flips, scum will aim to cross kill or shoot 3p.

[Jingle]

I’d prefer one of the contention slots that hasn’t claimed, like ethos or nd. I’m a legitimate option, because my death does confirm gamma and docs the entire crew tonight.

[Jingle]

Check with a50, but there’s a chance you flipping mal confirms mala fakeclaiming, in which case mala.

[Jingle]

Why do we need a massclaim tomorrow? Won’t that just help scum know who to target? And how do we even know all the claims are real anyhow?

We have seven claims and at least two not vt claims. We have two protective claims. Odds are a massclaim gives us a good chance at narrowing down the scum teams and it doesn’t really change much about where scum are shooting.

[Jingle]

I think buj claimed mal would fit his role at some point (oh, hey, another soft claim), but no, we don’t have a confirmed mal.

[Jingle]

Because A 2 and a traitor is not sufficient scum for a 17p game and B we have special mechanics for large numbers of kills of the same faction.

[Jingle]

I would definitely recommend them. Honestly, though this does appear to be a super flavor reliant game

[Jingle]

I have no idea how we're lynching a bg claim over a venge claim.

Literally the entire point of a vengeclaim is to be lynched.
Literally the entire point of a bg claim is that the slot can't live overlong after it claims, so you don't have to worry about lynching it.

[Jingle]

I think he's being an idiot atm. Tbf, I'm suffering a major case of the I-Don't-Give-A-Shits and I don't want to bother trying to make a horse drink.

And yeah, I think the last time we discussed anything in the mason PT was before he claimed, so...

[Jingle]

Jingle that seems logical. In my mind Venge = more likely town vs BG. Venge, like a vig can be positive utility for scum if they shoot town. There's a risk that the BG doesn't die tonight so I'd rather make sure this flips which could help us further decipher the workings of Chick's role. So while logically it makes sense to let the Venge kill and BG die somehow, we could end up killing town (possibly 2) and hoping scum don't have a workaround for the BG leaving scum in greater numbers. Then we would have to lynch the 3ps while scum kill us off each night so...I'd rather no venge shot and possibly a dead scum now.

If the venge is town and shoots town, no town can die overnight. So, instead of the towniest town player being shot, the least town town player gets shot. Chick gets another investigation result off, which we can use to sort the BG. Chick also pretty much can't die while Tails is alive, so it gets us additional investigations.

[Jingle]

Okay, proof we have a PT at least. Incoming.

[Jingle]

Gamma, pass along the message from the PT.

[Jingle]

Functionally, we should be confirmed to have a PT now.

Either we're both town or we're both scum, but we come as a pair.

[Jingle]

I checked our mutual threads.

FWIW, I was also the reviewer from Cheets UPick and the backup mod for Lynch the Wolves. That is the extent of our interaction, with the possible exception of TM because none of those show up in my egosearch.

[Jingle]

I hereby declare that I shall die on the 2nd day of 2nd month in year 2022, so I'd get to be with Ace. <2

This, btw, kind of makes sense as a bg crumb.

[Jingle]

In order for me to be protecting Tails because he's my scumpartner, he can't be HoB because that necessitates a 3 person team with me and Gamma. Which invalidates the "He crumbed scum" tell on him.

That argument is therefore above suspicion. Either I'm right or I genuinely believe that the crumb makes sense.

[Jingle]

That's kind of the point of crumbing. It doesn't make any sense until someone explains it to you.

For example, my mason crumb was that I was randomly determining townreads. My mason (at the time) was randomidget. That's not an easy link to point out unless someone explains it. My not putting Gamma in a reads list later was unfortunate, but it was literally because I couldn't think of a single reason to townread him and putting him anywhere else in the list would leave room for scum to cast doubt on the claim.

Nico's post first says she's going to die early, and then emphasizes 2. Meaning she probably intended to protect the second player slot, theworst. That became me.

I can definitely see how someone would miss that link, but the link does make sense as a bg crumb.

For bonus points, NR's first post references Ace, a character who

Spoiler:

literally dies to save another character's life.

[Jingle]

Anyway, I'm bored again. Any protectives should go elsewhere tonight.

VOTE: Ari

[Jingle]

Also if he gets shot.

[Jingle]

@Ari:

Can you confirm if you get a vengekill whichever way you die (lynching, nighkilling, vigs, etc.)? Sorry if you said already and I missed it.

B/c if Jingle's right, then shouldn't we avoid lynching you so you have at least one more flip to work with?

Traditionally vengeful only works when lynched. I was saying he's a VT if he's shot.

[Jingle]

I'd rather lynch a town vengeful than a town bg.

I also don't think Ari is more likely to be town than Tails.

Win/Win.

[Jingle]

@A50: I...feel like that number of 3 should not have been given to us...

Nope. It's the number above the threshhold. If he'd said 4 it would have meant something.

[Jingle]

You are. 3 non town players can die if they're not all of the same faction.

If there are 15 antitown factions, that remains true. If 4 non town players can die, that remains true. If only 2 non town players of any faction can die, it becomes false.

[Jingle]

Cerb is saying it's a mod slip about the number of possible kills, but it isn't.

[Jingle]

No, I think that bg is a claim that buys you a day at least. Like doctor or cop.

[Jingle]

So you want me to shoot them?

My official stance is as follows. I don't want to flip Tails today. I will vote Tails to prevent a deadline no lynch provided we're still stalemated and I believe deadline might show up before I can get back to the thread.

[Jingle]

No, it means it's possible for 3 nontown players to die, assuming three nontown players exist.

This is a parsing problem.

3 can doesn't imply 4 can't.

[Jingle]

While that is true, Flicker, it doesn't mean they're not threats to each other.

Scum benefits from dropping the number of potential incoming shots just as much as town does. Unless they're literally the scummiest players in the thread, there's a chance they'll be shot. If they're the scummiest players in the thread, we're probably going to win anyway.

Cerbs is using the wrong logic from the prisoner's dilemma.

If both parties are trustworthy, both parties benefit. If either party isn't trustworthy, they benefit more. If both parties aren't trustworthy, both parties benefit.

You never benefit from being trustworthy. You benefit from convincing the other party you're going to be trustworthy.

If I was scum, I'd 100% be trying to convince the other team that holstering their shot is the optimal play. I'd also 100% not be holstering my shot.

[Jingle]

So now I'm thinking 3scum+1traitor + 3p

You know that TPFKAP's PM explicitly says HoB is a 2 man group with a traitor, right?

[Jingle]

While that is true, Flicker, it doesn't mean they're not threats to each other.

Scum benefits from dropping the number of potential incoming shots drop just as much as town does. Unless they're literally the scummiest players in the thread, there's a chance they'll be shot. If they're the scummiest players in the thread, we're probably going to win anyway.

Cerbs is using the wrong logic from the prisoner's dilemma.

If both parties are trustworthy, both parties benefit. If either party isn't trustworthy, they benefit more. If both parties aren't trustworthy, both parties benefit.

You never benefit from being trustworthy. You benefit from convincing the other party you're going to be trustworthy.

If I was scum, I'd 100% be trying to convince the other team that holstering their shot is the optimal play. I'd also 100% not be holstering my shot.

FTFM

[Jingle]

9v3v3v1v1 remains the most likely imo.

9v1v1v1v1v1v3 is theoretically possible, as is 9v3v2v1v1v1.

10v3v2v1v1 also a vague possibility.

[Jingle]

I'd rather you not shoot CT or RR, because both have softclaimed and thus are likely to be solved (or partially solved) in massclaim. Which I believe should happen tomorrow.

[Jingle]

Nope. Cerbs is applying more precision to the statement than is implied by the statement.

"3 kills is possible" does not in any way imply "4 kills is impossible"

Cerbs is right that 3 or more (which A50 clarified was the intended meaning) is more correct, but 3 remains correct.

[Jingle]

No massclaim yet. Didn't expect a double scumflip with none of our 'conf'town dying yesterday.

We near 100% want to hit the last HOB today, because we have the most information there.

I'd like to have us targeted to hopefully shed light on the method A50 is using to convey info to Chick.

Flicker is an objectively bad lynch and an only slightly better check, imo. Lemme grab the playerlist. I have some thinking to do.

[Jingle]

Gamma Emerald - Mason w/Jingle - Confirmed PT, cannot be HoB.
Jingle - Mason w/Gamma
Flicker - priest - Confirmed role D1
Chickadee - Thief
Malakittens - Lyncher
Toogeloo - Lightning Rod

RightKnight - Town Enabler
Elsa Jay - Ascetic 1X Bulletproof Hider
Tails - Bodyguard
BuJaber - softed town ability that fucks with Lyncher
Reasonably Rational - softed town something via role PM convo
CheekyTeeky - softed town something via role PM convo
Chara - softed town something via role PM convo?

TPFKAP - flipped HoB traitor
Aristophanes - flipped Jayne/vengeful town
Light Ethos - Flipped HoB #1
Thor665 - flipped SK


My first instinct is to just lynch tails because his interactions with Menno were terrible. The top six names are reasonably confirmed to not be the final HoB member. I don't see a world with all of this floating around and a scum LR who chooses to use his power on Night 1. A no result on EJ confirms that he's not HoB, but that's kind of a moot point rn anyway with the way things look for Tail's interactions. Presumably we're at 8v1v1v(Some grouping of the remaining 3).

My instincts say we should have Chick investigate town (me/Gamma) to give a baseline town result for the thief ability that we can compare to Tail's result, making that more useful for tomorrow. Assuming Mala is telling the truth, that might bring us down to 1 nontown KPN.

[Jingle]

Why? Because 0 kills N1 backed up Toog’s LR claim and Toog not dying makes 0 sense, without town doc. Not bg or jailkeep but straight up doc.

Not necessarily. The fact that Thor's NK target was stopped is more powerful evidence of a town protective since the Ethos flip.

[Jingle]

CT brought that up. Also, ~6 players posted something along the same lines, including me.

[Jingle]

that was @ math, btw.

[Jingle]

We didn’t actually claim any flavor explicitly, pardon? All we’ve done is speculation.

Goddammit, I'm Wash. Stop trying to take away my toys.

[Jingle]

Chara likely spewed town by this, I think?

Doesn't work in multiball .

Chara's probably not the last HoB though.

[Jingle]

No massclaim yet. Didn't expect a double scumflip with none of our 'conf'town dying yesterday.

We near 100% want to hit the last HOB today, because we have the most information there.

I'd like to have us targeted to hopefully shed light on the method A50 is using to convey info to Chick.

Flicker is an objectively bad lynch and an only slightly better check, imo. Lemme grab the playerlist. I have some thinking to do.

What did you expect?

~~Math

To be dead. I left most of my spec for GE overnight just in case.

[Jingle]

Now I want to steal Thor's hammer...

We did finally break the magical Jingle and Thor are opposite alignments tell at some point though. I think we have two whole completed games where we're both town!

I'd forgotten about that - it was a frighteningly long run.

I'm fascinated about how long the McMenno counter is working compared to the Tails wagon. Something is strange there.

Also, GDI, the curse is back.

[Jingle]

You mean... Other than Thor?

[Jingle]

Yeah. Sorry was thinking along groupscum lines.

Far more likely imo that Tails is HoB than remaining groupscum. If he is groupscum, we can burn those associatives when we get to them.

[Jingle]

Buj probably Mal/AW from that.

He's likely to get shot now, though, to remove Mala from the game.

[Jingle]

Yup. Warwick doesn't make sense as either a crewmember or an antagonist. Therefore, if he is Warwick, he's a third party. Because he hasn't already claimed, I'm going to assume any 3p claims to be malicious 3p claims.

[Jingle]

Atherton Wing. Yeah, it's his party that the dress is worn to.

He's kind of a dickbag with a grudge against Mal and Inara, and thus Serenity as a whole.

No real groupscum ties though, so Mal is significantly more likely.

[Jingle]

You've probably been spoiled enough by this game that it won't matter, tbh.

It won't be as good as if you'd seen the show, but you should still enjoy it.

[Jingle]

Hulu has Firefly, btw, iirc.

[Jingle]

I don't know.

That's why I wanted to be investigated. Because we don't have a frame of reference for what a town result looks like. We have a scum result and two question marks.

[Jingle]

So if Cheeky is to be believed, I should vote the crap out of McMenno.

No. They're poo regardless of our alignments. The way you just joined the wagon was poo.

"Oh hey! Let me just move off this McMenno wagon that I've been thinking is scum and join this new hotness. Based on stretching a weird post into something significant in an effort to hide how flimsy the wagon is."

Unless you were on McMenno because of pokemon demons, the jump here is super sketch.

I want BJ to explain this odds thing to me. I understand Chicky and me going back down to similar odds as McMenno. What I don't understand is how that makes me a stronger scum read than the guy he's been sitting on all day. Either his McMenno case is just as flimsy, or he has a BS in math.

Interesting posts, for your perusal.

[Jingle]

Also, in retrospect I believe that EJ's claim doesn't come from HoB, so I don't particularly care about sorting it today. That can of worms can wait til after the scum faction with one remaining member is dealt with.

[Jingle]

Gamma Emerald - Mason w/Jingle - Confirmed PT, cannot be HoB.
Jingle - Mason w/Gamma
Flicker - priest - Confirmed role D1
Chickadee - Thief
Malakittens - Lyncher
Toogeloo - Lightning Rod
Elsa Jay - Ascetic 1X Bulletproof Hider
BuJaber - softed town ability that fucks with Lyncher, possible Mal result from Chick

CheekyTeeky - softed town something via role PM convo (Probably not HoB because Menno Tunnel)
Reasonably Rational - softed town something via role PM convo (Maybe conftown from PM interactions, needs consideration, corroborating evidence. Probs not HoB.)

Chara - softed town something via role PM convo?
RightKnight - Town Enabler
Tails - Bodyguard

TPFKAP - flipped HoB traitor
Aristophanes - flipped Jayne/vengeful town
Light Ethos - Flipped HoB #1
Thor665 - flipped SK

So, reasonably I can only see Tails, ThePerpetualHydra, or maaaaaybe Chara as HoB. I don't particularly want to dig up associations to check to see if ToraNancyDrewBlade makes any sense as a partner. Blade's 'townspewing Chara' argument is good enough for me for now.

VOTE: Tails

Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one.

[Jingle]

You, uh... Might just wanna catch up Chess Kitty. A lot of stuff like that has already been addressed. Particularly, the latter bits of RR's ISO make for interesting reading about Tails.

[Jingle]

Doc on Chick and this game is quickly approaching Solved status.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Tails
And if anyone accuses me of sheeping Jingle will tell you I was first to say Tails was Menno’s partner between us

Is true. My official stance in the mason PT was "God I hope he manages to protect successfully so I don't have to give a shit." But GE brought it up and we agreed it was the likely scenario.

[Jingle]

You're in the pool because we can't confirm enabler without your flip. FWIW, I don't think you should finish claiming yet, because the WIFOM of whether you are or aren't a good kill/enabler/town is great for town regardless of whether you're town if there are multiple killing roles still in the game.

[Jingle]

Also, this won't stop bugging me, so I'm just gonna ask.

Buj, does your username have anything to do with the Dave the Barbarian? My gut says no, but I can't shake the thought.

[Jingle]

Almost nothing is confirmable. This statement pings me hard but Nancy assured me you’re masons with Gamma and not scummates with him. But this pings me something fierce. Jingle’s better than this and last time he tried to pitch optimal strategy he pitched a bad one and was scum and still insisted it was better post game.

1. It objectively wasn't a bad strategy, because following it was a major contributing factor to the town win. Also, the mod of that game and statistics agree with me.
2. There's a lot of confirmable things. For example, Gamma and I have confirmed in thread that either we have access to a PT or we're really good at setting up fake messages to other players with almost no time to coordinate. From that, and the fact that neither of us is awful at the game to fakeclaim masons as town, it can be extrapolated that we're either masons or groupscum together. Flicker is confirmed to be a priest because she hammered a wagon and it didn't lynch the player. HoB2 is confirmed by the Menno flip to be a Jailkeeper who cannot both act and NK on the same night with no further partners. By this, it becomes confirmable that none of Gamma, Flicker, or I can be HoB2.

Also, I literally just finished a game where I pitched an arguably bad optimal strategy as town (It wasn't bad, just boring AF), so...

[Jingle]

@Jingle: Stop being lazy. You're better than this.

I'm sorry, but I'm winning, and winning is boring.

Or did you forget that our entire strategy in Ikaruga was "I'm gonna pick a fight with the two hydras who can actually read me, obvscum it up, and then spend the rest of the game dodging lynches".

[Jingle]

A mason claim wants to be investigated? Isn’t that really antitown?

Alas, no. Because the cop doesn't give results we can rely on. We don't have a clean inno/guilty on Tails. If I could look at what a result for town was, I might be able to figure out whether the result on Tails is an inno or a guilty. Which directly influences the lynch for today. A result on Buj, while nice, doesn't really influence today's lynch all that much.

Also people think me and Gamma are groupscum together for some reason. It's really kind of cute.

[Jingle]

So are you doubting Chickadee's results or are you just trying to get rid of some town to make things more interesting for yourself?

I don't think Chick's result is a clear or a guilty. S'why I wanted to be investigated.

More to the point, I have narrowed down the last HoB to a pool of 5 players (at least in my humble opinion). I was townreading two of them. One of the others told me the last was not a Menno partner and I have no reason to disbelieve the argument because it's either true or the person asserting it has no reason to lie.

Now, I should go through and reread you. I should go through and reread Menno, NDS and company, Chara, CT, and RR as well. But all of the little evidence points to you, I know you're capable of pulling my heartstrings to not want to lynch you, and the people I trust most say it's probably you. So I'm being lazy.

If I thought there wasn't a large chance of you flipping scum here, I wouldn't vote you.

You do get points for going after RR instead of RK, though.

[Jingle]

Nah, we could still theoretically be a part of the Niska crew if it's also groupscum. It's actually a slightly more likely play from my part to hard tie myself to a buddy in multiball if there's a third member of the crew I can set up to end game the town.

[Jingle]

Jingle, if you really want to know whether we should trust Chickadee, then you lynch Chickadee or BuJabs for Mara's sake. My utility is to die at night. So if you're that concerned about figuring out the visions today, then that's how you solve the problem. Otherwise, leave it for tomorrow and force Chickadee to investigate known town.

It's not about whether we can trust Chick. It's about what the thread tying the visions together is.

[Jingle]

a member of the Serenity crew.

Just wondering, but does anyone not have this line?

[Jingle]

Okay, who is bg?

[Jingle]

Gamma- Zoe
Jingle- Wash
Ari- Jayne
Flicker- Book
River- Chick
Mal- Buj?
Simon- Presumed Protective
Kaylee-
Inara-

If Elsa's town Inara would make the most sense. If you're town you'd pretty much have to be Simon, which would mean that there's no additional protective for town and last night was wonky. Enabler could be Kaylee, I suppose, but I can't think of what she'd enable unless you're fakeclaiming.

[Jingle]

Enabler for Mal's role could be Inara, I suppose.

[Jingle]

So... Tails, RR, Chara, CT, EJ, Toog fits into Simon, Kaylee, Inara, theoretically.

The fuck is Toog's flavor?

Goddammit, do I want to try and fight getting a massclaim and attempting to solve the puzzle today?

UNVOTE:

Fuck you, Tails.

[Jingle]

Oh, and Niska isn't a good lyncher for Mal, Saffron makes way more sense. Niska lets Zoe choose Mal or Wash.

[Jingle]

Oh, btw. Figured out Chickadee=River awhile ago.

I thought everyone had. It seemed pretty obvious that that's why she's getting visions instead of hard facts.

Unless of course she's scum, in which case she's got me fooled.

[Jingle]

Enabler then rest of town, or rest of town then enabler? Hmmm.

Probably rest of town then enabler. The enabler claim itself should limit the fakeclaim potential immensely.

Buj would go last.

So presumptive order would be Chara, CT, RR, RK, Buj based on my reads.

LR could be a fakeclaim, but that's a ballsy ass fakeclaim. Maybe Mr. Universe if we have 10 town? Does that actually mesh? Clearly I was wrong about the it has to be 3's spec given Thor's flip, so I suppose a 10v3v1v1v2 isn't out of the question. Nor is 10v3v1v1v1v1, I suppose. So probably lynch Toog last out of the claims that don't fit, just in case he's town.

Buj is pretty assuredly not group scum. Buj death probably solves Mala, but won't come until we're sure we can still win at that point.

Mala, would appreciate your weigh in on all of this. Actually, same to everyone. Do we want to try for the flavor solve via 1v1s at this point?

[Jingle]

Oh, because it might be relevant that I'm trustworthy, consider this:

I claimed mason with 0 pressure on me and little pressure on my mason buddy Day 2 in response to what I viewed as a mason soft. I clearly had prepared said claim since literally the page I replaced in. I did so despite this game being likely multiball, meaning I would be likely to draw a bullet if I was fakeclaiming. I did so despite the flavor of the game meaning a mason pair was likely. Why does this sequence of events make any sense from a scum player?

[Jingle]

If she's scum, she's playing a brilliant and dangerous game. Not interested in that, though. That can be figured out later.

Jingle, how much experience do you have with Nancy? This goes for just about anyone, tbh.

I think she was in Team Mafia. I know I've read a couple games she was in, but not for her alignment, so who the hell knows.

Math I'd like to think I can read after spectating quite a few games though. Think Titus but slightly less moonlogicky and slightly more deathtunnelly. Also, may or may not have picked up on one of my genuine scumtells.

[Jingle]

That messes with my spec, though. Multiple Reavers or SKs?

Ridiculous numbers of Shoot or Save Self roles does make sense as far as the nights of no kill roles go.

Funnily enough, EJ's play makes perfect sense from an actual survivor.

And whether Math endorses it is entirely beside the point. If it gets that far he won't really have a choice.

I'm more interested in the almost certainly town opinions, GE's opinion, and mala's opinion. (Yours also really doesn't matter, tbh.)

[Jingle]

Well, I'm going to bed now. I'll be back to decide how much I want to effort tomorrow.

[Jingle]

If Toog is fakeclaiming, then how do you account for no kills on N1? The only way that would make sense is if all possible KP roles had some kind of restriction or if there are multiple protectives from either alignment. I always lean to Occams Razor in these cases.

~N

If toog is LR, he was targeted by a jk. Almost certainly. If he’s fakeclaiming, the simplest conclusion is that Thor commutes and the rest of the scum blocked each other, but that’s incredibly ballsy. The problem is that lightning rod is a hell of a fakeclaim and he set it up in advance.

The other problem of course being that the role doesn’t really work for the flavor.

[Jingle]

To anyone but Thor. Actually Thor shooting the 1shot bp doc makes a ton of sense.

[Jingle]

That is the “normal” implementation, yes.

[Jingle]

I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.

I've changed my mind. Can we just finish this Tails lynch so that way we can deal with whatever *this* is?

-Cerb

No. We’ve opened Pandora’s box and now I’m going to follow it to the inevitable conclusions.

[Jingle]

Okay, I'm gonna go player by player here and it's gonna take up a lot of room, so spoiler tags. If I come up with anything useful, I'll mention it below.

Spoiler:

Mala- Play makes sense from demotivated Lyncher hoping town will throw her a bone. Further, if we have a Mal flip we know to lynch the shit out of that ASAP.

EJ- Play makes sense from a survivor. IF we are far enough ahead (5 town alive) when the game is at it's end that we can justify going for it and EJ/Mala are the only antitown remaining, I suggest we lynch Buj/Other Potential Mal to let Mala off the hook. EJ is inherently untrustworthy at this point, but the Ascetic claim doesn't strike me as likely to come from a non Ascetic JK. Hider is a good explanation for the missing Thor result last night. At best, slot is a distraction, at worst, slot is a danger, but dealing with other dangers comes first. Reevaluate if RK flips red.

Flicker- Flicker has been a flavor clear for a long time. Book is the only character for whom Priest makes sense. If another book flips, I'll reevaluate, but not before.

Chick- 80% chance of River. 10% chance of Inara. 10% chance of scum. If River and Inara both flip, lynch this immediately. Until then, Conftown.

Me/Gamma- Zoe/Wash. The flavor fits too strongly and the only other possibility is River/Simon.

Buj: Probably Mal via Chickadee. If Mal flips, lynch immediately.

Tails- Via flavor result, either HoB, Operative or Simon. Evidence towards HoB: Strange crumb early days. Evidence towards Simon: Claim and Videos. Evidence towards Operative: Videos. Possibly (Probably?) solved by massclaim.

Toog- Inara? Frequently used as a distraction by the crew, becomes less and less untouchable as the game goes on, mirroring the show. Use of power: crazy town. Lynch immediately before the Mala/EJ conclusion if necessary, but LR use on D1 buys a ton of goodwill. Further LR use will likely kill and confirm as town anyway.

Chara: Softed Role
CT: Softed Role
RR: Softed Role
RK: Enabler of high utility town power. Probably solved by massclaim? Strange claim flavorwise. Strange claim anything wise.

That's all 13 players. We're still missing a Kaylee, but Either Tails is Simon or one of Chara/CT/RR/RK is.

Pros to Massclaim:

Scum has to choose their 1v1's now. Potentially we just win the game. Well defined flavor slots.
Potentially prevents mislynching Tails if no one else claims a role that fits Simon. If someone else cc's Tails, we can judge and move on from there.

Cons to Massclaim:

Potential outing of potential Doc- Unlikely.
Potential outing of potential Vig- Untroubling.
Potential to get our most powerful role killed. Possible, assuming I understand the subtext the way I think I do, but honestly worth the shot.

Presumably, we're at 8v1v1v{some subset of 3}. We have the majority of the 8, or at least, I'm confident that we have the majority of the 8. Two slots are likely solved/nearly solved by a massclaim and we presumably have enough mislynches remaining to muscle that through. It's in the best interest of the two 3p claims to support this as well as it both drops the likelihood they'll be killed and means that they might live long enough to be offered the mutual win.

Done ~ A50

[Jingle]

Shit I forgot to close the tag.

@A50

: Would you kindly fix my fuckup?

[Jingle]

By *this* Im' referring to EJ's motivations, NOT solving what happened last night. I'm okay with that, but I find what EJ is saying and their continued hints that they're not actually town etc etc to be distasteful, anti-town, and want them gone once I run out of people I'm sure are scum to lynch. ^^

-Cerb

EJ's motivations have very clearly been "Survive to Endgame" the entire time. Like, most obvious motivation ever. Could be scum, could be survivor. The "Oops, I'm town" retraction was very clearly an attempt at WIFOM to keep himself alive. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if the change from Doc to Hider is a fakeclaim to keep himself alive. I'm also not really worried about it, because the way he's gone about it means he's almost certainly not going to endgame us unless we drop the ball massively.

[Jingle]

I've fairly well convinced myself that today is the optimal massclaim day.

Anyone have a particular reason why Chara, CT, RR, RK, Buj doesn't work?

RR has given a decent amount of info to go off of regarding their role. RK has almost fullclaimed. Buj has a probable inno AND has given a decent amount of info about his role.

Locking down the rest of the roles gives us a chance to avoid a potential mislynch. Outing the possible protective is less than worrisome, considering if we can lock the game into 1v1's we probably just win.

[Jingle]

We don't need to massclaim until we're losing. Hint: we're not losing.

No?

You don't massclaim until massclaim helps you win the game.

Assuming you're right, and Chara is scum (which presumably means you support wagoning and getting a claim from Chara) we have at most 3 unclaimed townies. Having them claim to see who they could match up to flavorwise is, y'know, optimal. Because it narrows down the scumpool.

Also Tails is pretty much confirmed not Kaylee via videos.

[Jingle]

Shhhh. That's a secret.

And I just want people to hard commit to the 1v1s.

If we lynch Tails, and he flips Simon, then very clearly no one will claim protective because no one on the ship makes sense as a protective role. If no one claims protective, we can pretty much assume that Tails is Simon and don't have to flip him. If we have a protective claim (or better yet, TWO!) then we know one of the two of them is lying.

Similarly, if RK claims an enabler for something that doesn't exist, we know they probably aren't enabling town, because why would town lie about their role here? That means that flavorwise, Kaylee wouldn't make a lick of sense for the enabler and RK is probably scum. If RK claims to enable Buj's role, and no one else is a possible Mal, then we can reasonably assume RK to be town because how else would they know to fakeclaim that particular enable. If RK claims to enable something that's pretty much useless to us, then we know they're lying about being an enabler for a super important town role and they're probably scum.

Basically, forcing the 1v1's now means that scum doesn't get to pick their fights after seeing what people flip in the nightphase, which can only be helpful if there are remaining unaligned scum like Thor.

[Jingle]

Jingle if you use your head a little bit I think you can figure out the remaining roles and see why RR is wagoning Tails based on the clues.

I think there are a lot of clues to that. Need to talk with my hydra partner before moving our vote (if it isn’t there) {{

A50 a vote count please?

}}

Do we know how many scum and how many town and how many “other” exist?

The reason I ask is I am wondering if Jingle Tails and Gamma are all scum and Elsa and Mala as “Other”.

~~Math

Flavor wise there are probably exactly 9 town players. I could argue three additional possibilities, two of which I've already brought up in the thread, but that's it.

The three additional possibilities, in likelihood of existence order:

Mr. Universe
Bester
The ship itself.

[Jingle]

Personally, I don't think we have a vig. I think Ari was our "vig."

Im starting to agree with this, it would make sense for HoB to kill Thor but where did Thor's shot go? Unless he aimed for Elsa?

Shuttupayouface about what roles are likely to exist. We don't want to talk about that right before a potential massclaim.

[Jingle]

I was very nearly a paramedic, but a friend in Montana told me about how he carries a gun because more than half of his calls are people trying to hold up the ambulance for drugs and my soul broke a little.

I feel your pain.

[Jingle]

To be clear, math, have I dropped my tell this game?

I'm interested.

[Jingle]

Sorry Mala. Hope the rest of your day goes better.

[Jingle]

EJ is a he, btw, but doesn't mind being addressed as a she.

[Jingle]

Enabler doesn’t mean the role exists in the setup or not.

True fax.

However, if your slot is likely to be Kaylee and another slot is likely to be Kaylee and your slot is claimed as an enabler for a role that doesn't exist/isn't town, then the other slot is more likely to be telling the truth mechanics wise. Additionally, Kaylee is the sweet innocent girl who would never do any wrong to anyone on the ship, and she frankly doesn't make sense as enabling scum.

Also, we got to where we are by having a D1 lurker lynch land on scum, a N1 LR prevent all kills, a mechanically optimal lynch hit a vengeful who shot in a dwindling PoE hitting scum, and presumably a scumcrosskill and successful protection. Reads played a very small role in all of that, if we're being perfectly honest.

[Jingle]

Do you want all of the things I've speculated? Cause that's excessive. Or is there a specific thing you want? Like, I can go on about how I speculated we couldn't have an SK. I could talk about how I speculated that HoB would be a 2p team before the traitor flip and assumed a vig would kill me N1 because of it. I could talk about the spec of two 3p teams being most likely based on the rules. I could talk about the rules spec. I could talk about my initial scumteam comp spec. I could talk about my theory of 5KPN. Hell, there's probably more I'm forgetting.

[Jingle]

TPFKAP flip was a traitor with two confirmed partners, neither group informed of the identity of the other.

Ethos was one of the two partners. HoB thus has one remaining member, who is confirmed to be a JK who cannot both act and shoot.

[Jingle]

Were they all a part of the crew at the same time?

Kind of. All of them were crew for the majority of the TV series simultaneously. There were deaths, *spoilers*, and a couple of people had episodes where they left and came back. Also, the flipped vengeful tried to sell out the crew once.

Bester was the previous engineer from before the series started (Kaylee took his job because he was an incompetent tool), and Mr. Universe was THE ally, but never actually a member of the crew. Anyone else who supported the ship was reluctant, unreliable, or downright antagonistic at some point.

During the movie, 2 characters aren't initially part of the crew, but are still explicitly aligned with them.

[Jingle]

Ah. Grabbing relevant posts.

[Jingle]

3- There are multiple killing mechanics in this game. To mitigate swing; this public mechanic will apply: A maximum of TWO players of the same faction can die in the same cycle (D1/N1, D2/N2, etc). In the case where more than 2 players are set to die in the same cycle the one(s) that go though are determined through a pre-set process that shall be revealed post-game.

4- The game ends when either all threats to town have been eliminated or all town members have been eliminated.

Presumably we're at 8v1v1v(Some grouping of the remaining 3).

I could find where I talk about the why, but I believe the most likely scenarios are a group of three antitown including EJ or additional roles like Thor's to make up the remainder. I'm also fairly certain that we've run out of benevolent or possibly benevolent 3p roles.

I explicitly believe the Lyncher claim, because who the fuck fakeclaims lyncher on Town.

I also explicitly believe my presence as someone who will go out of his way to allow 3p players the mutual win has made the balance to this game wonky.

[Jingle]

Flips, collected.

Spoiler:

Hello

TPFKAP

You are Lawrence Dobson, an undercover Union of Allied Planets agent in pursuit of Simon and River Tam. You know that mysterious pair going by “Hands of Blue” are also in pursuit of the Tam siblings on behalf of the Union, but they are not notified of your identity. You are immune to

your own faction's kill

. If both HoB players die you inherit their kill.

You win when the Serenity crew are eliminated or nothing can stop that from happening.

To make it simple: You are a Traitor aligned with the HoB.

Important: To avoid flavour gaming; Town players have NOT been given their flavour.

"Simon Tam, you are ordered by law to stand down."

Spoiler:

Hello

Light Ethos

&

Player Name 2

You are The "Hands of Blue", going by (Hands of Blue 1 & Hands of Blue 2). You are contractors to the Union of Allied Planets and are in pursuit of River and Simon Tam. You kill without mercy using a sonic device that induces massive bleeding from every orifice. You both are Jailkeepers, but the same person can't JK and kill at the same night, and

if you both target each other with the Jailkeep both your actions will fail

. You are also aware that there's an undercover Union of Allied Planets agent working on the same mission, but you don't know who they are (it means

the 3rd member of your team is a Traitor

). You win when the Serenity crew are eliminated (i.e. all town-aligned players are dead) or nothing can stop that from happening.

Important: To avoid flavour gaming; Town players have NOT been given their flavour.

TWO BY TWO, HANDS OF BLUE.

Here is your Hands of Blue/Union of Allied Planets PT.

Spoiler: Redacted Version

Hello

Aristophanes

You are [full flavour will be revealed upon your flip or at the end of the game], a member of the Serenity crew. You are

Vengeful

. If you are lynched, you may kill any other player as you die. If you are hammered PM me with the name of your target. If you are getting close to a lynch and wish to send in a PM before twilight, you may do so. If the lynch doesn’t go through, the target will not be binding on future days.

You win when all threats to Serenity and its crew have been eliminated.

Spoiler: Full Flavoured Version

Hello

Aristophanes

You are

Jayne Cobb, Serenity’s hired muscle. You have a twitchy trigger finger and a mean temper.

You are

Vengeful

. If you are lynched, you may kill any other player as you die. If you are hammered PM me with the name of your target. If you are getting close to a lynch and wish to send in a PM before twilight, you may do so. If the lynch doesn’t go through, the target will not be binding on future days.

You win when all threats to Serenity and its crew have been eliminated.

"Time for some thrilling heroics."

Spoiler:

Hello

Thor665

You are a Reaver. Each night you may target one other player and torment them to the point where they die of fear. You have a 2-shot Commuter ability though so you may use that if you don't want to kill on any given night.

You win when

all other players are dead

or nothing can prevent that from happening.

Important: There is a chance the game may end before you can accomplish your mission, so choose your victims wisely.

Even more important: To avoid flavour gaming; Town players have NOT been given their flavour.

“I ain’t going over there with them bodies. No rutting way. Not if Reavers messed with ‘em.”

[Jingle]

Uhhh. The answer to how there's an SK with Rule #4.

[Jingle]

No, if all town die the game is over.

If all town die and there are still HoB, Thor is not the last man standing, therefore he loses. That was A50 not being a dick and warning him.

[Jingle]

Yeah, that role is hard AF. Kinda wish I'd had it.

[Jingle]

I understand your position. However, being as you are one of the unclaimed players, you have a severe bias to be taken into account. Which is why I'm specifically looking for Flicker/Chick/Gamma/Toog's opinions.

[Jingle]

That would kind of require Gamma to be posting in the mason PT. I'm pretty sure the last post in there was before daystart.

Also, none of the players I listed as caring about their opinions are unclaimed.

[Jingle]

Nvm, I posted yesterday. We have one post in the mason PT since day start.

I should go back to talking about inane nonsense in there so A50 can join in.

Also, for the record, A50 has refused all attempts to get him to flip me as Queen Latifah.

[Jingle]

Update: We are now discussing classic rock in the mason PT.

Also, I'm not gonna fight hard for the massclaim if we don't want it here, because I think we're probably close to autowin without it.

I reserve the right to rub it in your faces in the post game if it was breaking though. (Obviously not if my choosing not to fight for it loses the game, but definitely in the case that it's completely irrelevant.)

[Jingle]

Chick was softing masons with NR.

[Jingle]

The fourth tier is null/null-scum. In particular, I took Chickadee claiming Nico as River to be a soft mason claim, but whether they're paired scum or town (if they're even paired at all or Chick is just trying to take Nico down with her?) isn't something I feel like I can say either way.

@flicker you’re wrong about me soft claiming btw. Not a mason claim.



@nico, wanna claim masons? It’ll be fun.

If you fakeclaim masons I both can and will lynch you for it.

I jumped the gun on 2278, and once I had there was no real point in backing down.

Don't worry, GE yelled at me for it already.

[Jingle]

Eh. TBH, I'm waiting to see if Tails has anything relevant to say.

GE definitely gets the final say here though, because I trust his reads more than my own.

[Jingle]

Feeling sick as hell today. Prolly not gonna contribute. Sorry.

[Jingle]

Stop not killing me dammit.

[Jingle]

So... Massclaim?

[Jingle]

Chara->CT->You->RK->Buj was the proposed order.

Buj has a potential Mal result from Chick, RK is partially claimed. Everyone else is fullclaimed.

I can be reasoned with on Chara CT RR order though, if someone has a compelling argument as to why.

[Jingle]

Chick fullclaimed I'm pretty sure, me and GE fullclaimed. Toogs claimed LR, and something about being nonconsecutive, which he should probably clarify right now because the utility of it is probably gone anyway. Buj soft claimed and has an investigative result already. RK claimed Enabler of {strong town role}. Flicker is not only claimed but her role is confirmed.

I'm not really worried about making Buj claim early because he's already locked into a single town possibility, he's softed what his role does, and I intend to lynch him before the endgame anyway.

RK I want to go last because I think they're likely to be a PoE lynch today, and I'm interested to see who they choose to tie themselves to.

Also, EJ has fullclaimed conflicting roles, so...

That leaves Buj, Toogs, RK, Chara, CT, RR.

Of those names, 3 haven't claimed at all. 2 have partial claims, meaning their options for fakeclaiming are particularly limited and I don't want them to be early in the claim order. And one both has already been investigated and softed hard.

I think having the 3 with no claims go first is the best play, to limit fakeclaim options. Again, I don't particularly care about the order of those players, but I proposed Chara->CT->RR yesterday based on readstrength.

[Jingle]

EJ, what'd you do last night? Also, are you gonna change your town hider role? Are there any flavor clues in your role PM you'd like to share?

[Jingle]

Mala in fact shouldn't claim more before massclaim, because she has literally no reason to lie at this point. If she can help find scum she will do so because doing so means she wins. If not, she's really not a threat.

[Jingle]

actually, i want Elsa Jay to go first.

I find this sensible

Agreed, I just also think the information is useless.

[Jingle]

He did. He claims non weak. FTR, I still think he's a survivor. It explains all of his plays in a neat little bow.

[Jingle]

Why would non claimers going last be more likely to catch fake claims?

[Jingle]

Mala in fact shouldn't claim more before massclaim, because she has literally no reason to lie at this point. If she can help find scum she will do so because doing so means she wins. If not, she's really not a threat.

If Malakitty is truthful about being a lyncher, they can't coexist with town's wincon, so we'd literally have to discern who Malcolm Reynolds is and lynch them so Malakitty can win, or lynch Malakitty.

Buj is either scum or Mal, assuming Chick hasn't been pulling videos out of thin air for an elaborate fakeclaim. Which would be so incredibly ballsy that I'm not even considering that.

[Jingle]

Yesterday.

She got a result of Mal and Kaylee at Atherton Wing's party and Mal stabbing Atherton Wing.

[Jingle]

Copping bujaber have me a picture of Kaylee and Mal. Kaylee was in the pretty pink dress she wanted so much and they were at the ball.

I also got a quote:
"You have to finish it, lad. You have to finish it. For a man to lay beaten... and yet breathing? It makes him a coward."

[Jingle]

Hello Aristophanes

You are [full flavour will be revealed upon your flip or at the end of the game], a member of the Serenity crew. You are Vengeful. If you are lynched, you may kill any other player as you die. If you are hammered PM me with the name of your target. If you are getting close to a lynch and wish to send in a PM before twilight, you may do so. If the lynch doesn’t go through, the target will not be binding on future days.

You win when all threats to Serenity and its crew have been eliminated.

Ours is a six word appositive, so doubt they’re all the same at this point.

BTW, I should be 100% conftown based on this, I think.

[Jingle]

If the argument of "Don't mass claim when town is winning this much" was valid yesterday, it's at least that valid today.

It was not valid yesterday, for the record.

It is in fact never valid. Massclaim is most effective when town is already in the lead, because it relies on having more true information. The fewer scum players involved in the massclaim, the more likely the conclusions aren't tampered with.

We have a large clear pool. We have a small PoE pool. The clear pool is already near overwhelming. If we can add to that pool, we win.

[Jingle]

Why would non claimers going last be more likely to catch fake claims?

@CT

[Jingle]

Flavorwise who would Mal's lyncher be? Kaylee? Who's Kaylee?

Presumably Saffron. Lyncher is explicitly not town, and there's no way Kaylee wouldn't be town as the ship's mechanic.