PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf (Game Over)

[mastina]

Hi I am

(not)

a mason.

[mastina]

I propose that after Xenoblade mafia, Flavor leaf swiftly picked Spiffeh to be on his team to redeem himself
VOTE: Spiffeh

If we're doing team speculation:
FL knows that I am straight-laced and will never fakeclaim and will always realclaim and won't go along with his gambits. That doesn't mean he wouldn't recruit me (tho I can tell you he didn't), but it does mean that if he did, he'd have to deliberately incorporate my lack of cooperation into the scumteam, in finding a plan that relies on my truthful claim setting up a lying scum to create a solution where town can't find the solve.

I imagine that I am not the only player this applies to.
So if he recruited a player like me who can't spin an elaborate web of lies, he would by necessity need to recruit only one of said players and mostly recruit players that're more likely to be able to spin his signature web of lies.

Double the Trouble (Alisae and NorwegianboyEE) <--Would be an excellent web of liars.
Nextflix and Chill (notscience and Brian Skies) <--Would be an incredibly bad pair of liars.
Spiffeh <--Plausible as both, actually.
Creature <--Would be an incredibly bad liar.
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary) <--Has proven to be an incredibly good liar.
Ydrasse <--I don't know who this is so have no gauge; if FL similarly doesn't have a gauge, would be risky to recruit as a liar.
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet) <--I think they count as bad liars, but not sure.
pichu <--I don't know who this is so have no gauge; if FL similarly doesn't have a gauge, would be risky to recruit as a liar.
Not Known 15 <--Probably a good liar?
Toogeloo <--Might be both? Not sure, would need to double-check.
MURDERCAT <--I don't remember, need to check.
Battle Mage <--Probably a good liar.
Bell <--FL has a much better gauge on Bell than I do, so I don't know.
Dr Easy Bake <--FL's defacto liar, the person best suited to following his plan.
Dunnstral <--Good liar.
Ircher <--I actually don't know, but I imagine FL does.

So there's probably a maximum of one scum in:
{Netflix and Chill, Creature, Solstice}, possibly more in the list of names I'm not sure on.
0-1 scum in there.

And the majority of the scum I'd expect to be in {Double the Trouble, Polar Bear Express, Not Know 15, Battle Mage, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake}.
There's going to be 2-3 scum in there probably.

With the wildcards being {Spiffeh, Ydrasse, pichu, Toogaloo, MURDERCAT, Bell, Ircher}.
Containing 0-2 scum in here, probably 0-1 if I had to guess.

VOTE: Polar Bear Express.
I'm pretty sure that FL would absolutely love to get his hands on Noraa as an agent of his. Of the slots in the game, the only one who'd be more FL-friendly is DEB but everyone knows about the FL-DEB relationship and FL knows everyone knows about the FL-DEB relationship and that's a literal WIFOM situation that we could add layers to for days on if FL picked DEB or not, so I'm going not with the most obvious candidate (DEB) but the second most likely candidate.

[mastina]

I think it makes more sense for him to pick Noraa for that reason, Dunn.

Oh you beat me to that point.

Welcome to my immediate pocket as I am instantly townbinning you for that train of thought.

[mastina]

But I'm really tired now

(Creature is looking like, if there's scum in my 'bad liars' pool, an awful lot like the one scum there.)

[mastina]

And the majority of the scum I'd expect to be in {Double the Trouble, Polar Bear Express, Not Know 15, Battle Mage, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake}.
There's going to be 2-3 scum in there probably.

Are we really doing this already

I don't see why not!

Let's go one stage further, even:

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill

Solstice

Ydrasse
pichu

Bell
Ircher
Toogaloo
MURDERCAT

NotKnown15

Double The Trouble
Spiffeh
Dunnstral

Dr Easy Bake

Battle Mage

Creature

Polar Bear Express

Thereabouts!

[mastina]

And the majority of the scum I'd expect to be in {Double the Trouble, Polar Bear Express, Not Know 15, Battle Mage, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake}.
There's going to be 2-3 scum in there probably.

Are we really doing this already

I don't see why not!

Let's go one stage further, even:

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill

Solstice

Ydrasse
pichu

Bell
Ircher
Toogaloo
MURDERCAT

NotKnown15

Double The Trouble
Spiffeh
Dunnstral

Dr Easy Bake

Battle Mage

Creature

Polar Bear Express

Flavor Leaf

Thereabouts!

Realize I forgot to include FL while including Pooky, whoops!

Butyeah, this is conftown leantown nulltown various shades of null nullscum with a heavy emphasis on null, nullscum, de-facto-scum, scumlean, scumread, strong scum, and confscum.

[mastina]

Why tf would I lie about being tired?

I'm not calling you a liar that's lying about being tired, I'm profiling you as a generically bad-liar, and in this game I'd expect FL to recruit a maximum of one bad liar and if he did so, you'd be my best guess among the bad-liars pool for being the player picked to be scum.

Hi mastina!

I realize I'm not greeting all of the players saying hi to me, I should be doing that more, so I apologize, I'm mostly in trying-to-keep-the-noise-down mode because I'm anticipating that we're gonna have a 20-40 pages per real life day game where 75% of the posts are noise/fluff, butyeah, consider this my generic hi-to-everyone, now let's catch the scum mode.

@Mastina - Do you think I wouldn't be aware of you analyzing my drafts if I wasn't going to pick you?

Aware of it? Probably, yes, you'd have had to have done absolutely zero research on me otherwise.

Just because you're aware of it though doesn't mean you're not confident you can outplay me tho. And I don't mean in draft. I don't think you gave so much as a single fuck as to players like me, that would be town, speculating as to who would be picked as scum; I don't think you made so much as a single attempt to subvert those guesses by drafting someone unexpected--I think you picked exactly who you wanted to (aside from those that were stolen away from you by Titus who you'd love to have drafted if not for her stealing them away from you), and are going to rely on outplaying us rather than pulling unexpected draft picks.

You are not Pine, after all; you have an entirely different scum approach and philosophy than him. Pine I'd expect to make unexpected picks in moderation; you I'd expect to not make them or if making them minimizing them, and then just rely on outplaying the town to win in spite of the obvious picks, or rather to win because of the obvious picks and capitalizing on that strategy.

[mastina]

Mastina are these you reads? How do you reconcile creature being an unlikely pick with your SR there? Or do you not value your own draft analysis?

I didn't say bad-liars wouldn't be picked--I said that if FL picked one, he picked ONLY one.

In short, one flipping scum basically clears the rest to me.

You may note that I'm not voting Creature, either.
I think that if FL picked a bad-liar to be scum, it's looking like Creature.
But I am not voting Creature--I'm voting the Noraa hydra who already looks like scum.

[mastina]

Mastina effort usually means one thing imo. Lesson learnt from a certain game.
- Norwee

I am morally obligated to point out that, for the first time in two years, I did have a scumgame where I efforted.

And since it ended before I signed up for this one, it is one that FL could on scouting have seen.

But yes, in general, efforting does mean I'm more likely to be town. It's just sadly not a 100% lock-towntell now.

Mastina and Dunnstral were the first bans the first draft.

I'm not entirely sure about Dunnstral (depends on Titus's view on Dunn), but I can actually believe this--Titus is well aware that in the last two years, I've had incredibly lackluster scum performances (and she'd presumably be unaware of the one scumgame I just finished where I didn't have a lackluster performance), and have had incredibly strong town performances, in particular, having performed remarkably well in games of this sort before, where I was pretty damn town and did pretty well at catching scum. I legit had the thought that Titus probably did pick me as town somewhere in the draft. Not necessarily first two, but somewhere.

[mastina]

Noraa hydra who already looks like scum.

Based on 1 content less post?

Yup!

[mastina]

Notty won't let me let Mastina pocket us.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Eh, notty'll come around eventually.

[mastina]

Mastina would you be down for that? That seems like something you would enjoy

It is, but I'd rather not bog the thread down with fluff at this point in time.

Maybe if the game has stalled, the game is at a manageable pages per day level, and we can afford the fluff, but it's my belief that the earliest pages of the game are the most important, not only for scumhunting, but also for setting the tone for the rest of the game.

Being friendly, a little lighthearted, and yet mostly still business with scumhunting feels like the best example to set to me.

VOTE: Double the trouble

I might see where you're coming from on this, but I'm not sure of it.

I think Mastina and probably Dunn are town.

My concern about Dunn is that I actually do really really like everything he's doing/saying right now...when in our last game together where he was town, he was none of those things.

Basically, recency bias of a sorts: Dunn in our last game didn't give townvibes, didn't seem to be on a town wavelength, didn't seem to be town, in spite of him being town; this game Dunn is giving off townvibes, does seem to be on a town wavelength, and does seem to be town.

But at this stage I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, that just as that game was atypical of my scumplay, it is atypical of Dunn's townplay and that this is a more typical Dunn towngame.

[mastina]

Fair warning: I am always more V/LA over weekends than normal. Tomorrow I will have a family obligation, and later today I'll have non-mafiascum things to attend to, and once those things start, won't be available in this game.

So I might not be able to get caught up, but I'll make as much headway as I can before I need to leave.

I think Flavor prolly picked all the good scum players for his team.

By and large, I don't exactly disagree. I think FL is fully capable of picking one good-town player to deny them the chance to be town, but by and large I expect there to be three good scum.

The list of good scum isn't quite the same as the list of good liars, but you'll note there's quite some overlap:
Double the Trouble (Alisae and NorwegianboyEE)
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
?Ydrasse?
?MURDERCAT?
Battle Mage
Dr Easy Bake

This is the list of players I'd expect FL to think are good at scum, and like I said: I imagine it contains ~3 scum.

So from a pick-spec point of view, I quite like my Polar Bear Express vote.

[mastina]

I think instead of trying to play “guess the reigning DC’s draft” we could just, ya kno, scumhunt? And not play the game on his terms, giving him that much more control over it?

Fair, so let me put it another way;
Noraa's content has felt like scumposting to me through and through the entire time.

Even without the pick-spec, I'd be voting that hydra here.

[mastina]

I don't like what Noraa is doing in the thread right now, but it doesn't really look like the game they just played. I like mastina, Netflix and Chill, and I think Bell right now

For the record, I do like those townreads, and yes I do see the same on Noraa but lacking a recent game with Noraa I am not inclined to think Noraa town for it.

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral

Bell
Solstice

Ydrasse
pichu

Ircher
Toogaloo

MURDERCAT
NotKnown15

Double The Trouble
Spiffeh

Dr Easy Bake

Battle Mage

Creature

Polar Bear Express

This is loosely where I am right now (although I still have 20+ pages to read), in that I desperately need more townreads here because I'm not really confident in the scumreads I have.

[mastina]

VOTE: Ircher

I think I see what you do and I think I agree.

Also, I'm a bit surprised you skipped RVS and went straight to speculating things about the draft.

No need for an rvs in a game where there's nonrandom role assignments. Since you can make a non-random vote from the onset, the rvs is unnecessary for a game of this type.

Murder/Ircher/Double
Maybe me just solved half the game. that'd be cool. me wanna be a cabd too!

Okay maybe Noraa is town here since I can actually see the logic behind this solve and to some extent, agree with it.

VOTE: Ircher.

[mastina]

But how does being tired strengthen your read on Creature?

Because by gut I got an overwhelming feeling of, "this is scum Creature" when looking at thiat post.

Huh? What looks scummy about Polar Bear Express at this point in time?

Literally every post until the callout of an Ircher/MURDERCAT/Double solve, which is a post that I can see as plausibly town. I'm not

sure

it's town, because it's possible to be scum making a solve out of plausibly-scummy town players, but since I can see the logic behind the suspicions, it's the first thing to give me any doubt on the scumread.

I'm not sure where Polar Bear Express belongs in my reads right now, but I felt like I should move my vote off of them given my doubt of the slot's scumness.

No me has to take out ircher cuz ircher being towny.
Mastina/Double/Murder

me read Dunn's posts. They keep shading me.
Dunn/Mastina/Double/Murder

For instance, these posts look terrible since they're explicitly OMGUS+reverse-OMGUS (townreading a player townreading your slot + scumreading players scumreading your slot), and it no longer flows as well.
I could see the plausible callout of Ircher/MURDERCAT/Double.
The transition I cannot see.

[mastina]

i'm confident i can show you my towny heart pooky
it may not be now
since i did just open this thread and have read nothing

but you WILL see my towny brilliance shine through
even if that comes in unconventional forms

yes

(For the record I realize these two didn't really produce much content in their posting but I still liked their interactions and felt that both slots were more likely to be town after.)

[mastina]

pretty sure mastina asked too yeah. we got him there

Nah, I have a distaste for being scum and a distaste for FL's style of scum gameplay so I most definitely would not ask to be his lackey.

[mastina]

Yo where my man Battle Mage at, he knows his shit.

Probably in the scum PT.

[mastina]

Good morning to you all. I'm not going to overspeculate, but I'm going to at least assume scum didn't go crazy with their role picks. I'm VT which means I'm just along for the ride this game. Flave's got his team he wants, Pooky his team of Masons he wants, other peeps got some juicy powerz probably, and then me... stuck in the middle twiddlin' my thumbs.

While I hate the immediate roleclaim, can empathize. (I claimed not-mason in my first post mostly as a joke on my typical opener, but also because I figured that Pooky would never pick me as a mason and that claiming not-mason wouldn't actually narrow down the mason pool because me not being one was obvious.)

I do immediately get good :townpings: from Toog, here!

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral
Toogaloo

Bell
Ydrasse
pichu

Solstice


Double The Trouble
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express

MURDERCAT
NotKnown15

Dr Easy Bake

Battle Mage

Creature
Ircher


This is, loosely, where I am at--I feel like I've got a reasonably good townbloc going, which is good because I don't feel at all confident in the scumreads.

This is locktown strong town weak town possible scum nullscum defacto scum scumread stronger scumread, approximately.

[mastina]

~Morning

(For the record, I'm not being impressed with Morning Tweet's posts here.)

[mastina]

I kinda like Toogelo.
Sure it

kinda

sounds like posturing the way they argue about being in the middle. But i think it might be genuine.

For the record, Norwee: you're doing a very good job of making me actually have a positive read on an Ali hydra.

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral
Toogaloo

Bell
Ydrasse
pichu

Double The Trouble



Spiffeh

Solstice
Polar Bear Express

MURDERCAT
NotKnown15

Dr Easy Bake

Battle Mage

Creature
Ircher

I think this is more accurate to my thoughts.
Conftown; strong town; town; possible scum; ambivalent but nullscum overall; scumlean; de facto scum; scumread; stronger scumreads.

[mastina]

you're a lot more formal and Structured here though
i worry

i worry that it's easier for you to post like this as scum and benefits you a lot more as scum
since the loose free flowing form of posts you have as town are much harder to fake if you're scum

Okay pichu I hate to break ya off of Ydrasse but you move to the locktown tier for this as it's dead on the money for expressing my concerns about Morning Tweet.

[mastina]

Team FL go go go!

I believe it.

VOTE: Battle Mage.

For the record, if I had to go for a coherent team comp I'd guess something like BM-Spiffeh (deny town + strong scum + willingness to gambit) with one comfort pick (Polar Bear Express, Dr Easy Bake, maybe-Ircher, maybe-MURDERCAT), and then one more wildcard pick that he's not so confident on but which he thinks helps the team (Solstice, maybe-MURDERCAT, NotKnown15, Creature, maybe-Ircher).

But in terms of reads I admit that expectation isn't quite lining up with the strength of reads since Spiffeh's the closest to a townread and both Ircher/Creature being scum would mean a lot of players I see scum stuff in are not actually scum.

(Basically, read strength isn't equal to team likelihood, the two are different metrics to use that are guessing different things.)

[mastina]

nuh uh
i don't buy that for a second
VOTE: battle mage
nope

Welcome to the townbloc, Ali. <3

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu

Bell
Ydrasse
Double The Trouble



Spiffeh

Solstice
Polar Bear Express

MURDERCAT
NotKnown15

Dr Easy Bake

Creature
Ircher
Battle Mage

[mastina]

Oh my

Can't feel any more energy to play mafia

For the record if Creature were town here I'd expect him to tell DEB to vote someone here--that this is his posting instead does make me think he's scum.

Also, mistygirl's posts don't make me actually townread the slot since she's not solidly townposting, but she at least makes me feel better about the hydra overall.

[mastina]

I thought you have played with Noraa before?

Have I?

I've reviewed Normal games that had Noraa as a player and I try to read those (tho I end up often skimming-at-best, skipping like 7/10 pages in the game at minimum), but I'm pretty sure that's the extent of my Noraa knowledge.

Yo where my man Battle Mage at, he knows his shit.

Probably in the scum PT.

Do you scumread BM?
- Norwee

See my current vote.
(Yes.)

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu

Double The Trouble
Bell
Ydrasse


Solstice


Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express

NotKnown15
MURDERCAT

Dr Easy Bake

Ircher

Creature
Battle Mage

I feel like this is a more accurate representation of my reads.

Locktown; strong town; ambivalent-null; possible scum; scumlean; defacto scum; scumread; stronger scumreads.

[mastina]

Mastina your read on us is still weak

Is not, you're locktown. That's the opposite of a weak read.

[mastina]

Welcome to the townbloc, Ali. <3

Crist I never know if ur pocketting me or you're reading me correctly

Well you can mostly blame Norwee for that since Norway here is transparently town, but also your reaction to Battle Mage is spot-on and I don't see you ever doing that as scum, so.

[mastina]

(post where he goes after Solstice)

For the record, Spiffeh.

I feel like you attacking Solstice is very...well. Weak.

Your reasons seem pretty weak and superficial, on a playerslot that's probably one of the easiest to finger as scum, since both halves of the hydra are players that tend to be lower-hanging fruit. (Mistygirl in particular.)

While I feel that there are reasonable reasons to finger that slot as suspicious, the ones you're going after seem entirely forced and fake, as if you're struggling to come up with a genuinely good scumread on any slot so picked an easier slot to go after.

Not a behavior that inherently makes you scum, but definitely a behavior that doesn't inspire trust in your townness.

[mastina]

im slightly interested in why you think I never do that as scum though. It feels perfectly reasonable for me to react that way to battle mage if I'm scum me thinks

Because I don't think scum will have that much of a natural, instinctive, visceral reaction to Battle Mage, and think that pushing BM is a good idea. It doesn't seem to work as a strategy if BM is town and while it's plausible as a strat if BM is scum and this is distancing, it doesn't seem particularly probable.

[mastina]

Morning Tweet isn't LHF. Wut /:

I'd say that Morning Tweet posting in the style chosen for this game is, since the chosen style is not one which makes you hard to eliminate. Quite the opposite. Morning Tweet's chosen posting style this game is very very easy to have the town eliminate them for it.

[mastina]

Anyone wanna talk to me about something I have a lot of slots that I feel no type of way about and would like that to change

Sure.

Talk to me about Battle Mage.

[mastina]

Why are you scum reading him?

Because while I believe that he is genuinely V/LA on weekends, I do not believe that his V/LA on weekends status means that he doesn't post here yesterday and today posts only four posts that were all Beetlegeusy in nature (which he himself admits he normally doesn't do); I feel it far more likely that he's mostly been contributing in the scum PT, realized he had been called out, and decided to pop in.

I feel like the nature of his posts is indicative of him being scum, in part because in spite of being V/LA there's no solving in it.

The Battle Mage I know would solve even when being V/LA and the lack of it is a huge fucking red flag.

[mastina]

@spiffeh- mastinas lock townread on us is based off is claiming our informed. She’s played with at the very least me and should be able to provide more reasoning than that.

I mean it started from your very first post, sure, yeah.

When did I ever say it was just from that one post?

I thought it pretty damn apparent that the reason I'm townreading your slot is that literally every post is oozing a radiant town aura through and through, that your hydra has made a lot of good points, good posts, good reasons, and overall just is self-evidently very clearly and obviously town from start to finish. The everything you've done is town. You might be good enough scum players for some of the lesser-town posts to be within your scum meta but the greater-town posts, along with the overwhelming presence of said lesser-town posts, is enough where yes, you are in fact my strongest townread.

I don't think it's out of character for town!mastina to make over-confident reads based on things that don't make the most logical sense. Do you disagree?

I think all your suspicions are a little uninspiring so far tbh except maybe Double the Trouble but it's ok it's early I'll give you a chance to collect yourself and keep moving forward

Which is in contrast with this sort of posting from Spiffeh, that I do not. I realize the objectively 'town' merits to the post; I do not think it in any way shape or form actually indicates Spiffeh is town; this is a null-at-best post from him.

[mastina]

Netflix and Chill (notscience and Brian Skies) - Town
Spiffeh - Need more data
Creature - Need more data
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary) - Probably town
Ydrasse - Probably town
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet) - Town but my read is garbage though Spiffy isn't really doing a good job at convincing me yet.
pichu - town
Not Known 15 - Need more data
Toogeloo - gun to head town?
MURDERCAT - lean scum but need more data
Battle Mage - probably scum
Bell - town
Dr Easy Bake - I'll kill it
Dunnstral - Now that I think about it this slot also confuses me
mastina - Tabling for later
Ircher - Pichu v Ydrasse being theatre is a non-sensical take that I feel like could come from town but I don't have anything I feel good about.

I agree with literally every single one of these aside from having something of an opinion on the 'need more data' Creature where I think there's enough data to have a read, and maybe-Polar Bear Express (maybe, I do see more and more reason for them to be town).

I assign slightly different strengths to it; Toogeloo is a much stronger town, Dunnstral while I did have some confusion is strongly town.

But this is basically where I am as well, by and large.

[mastina]

mastina
did you see that pm about alt disclosure rules?

I'm not sure if I'm allowed to answer your questions given the mod interference (even tho it'd be pretty damn harmless), but this is me acknowledging your posts, saying I would like to answer them, have an answer for them, just am not sure I'm permitted to give the mod's interjection.

[mastina]

Scummy and nobody is vouching for them

*raises hand*
Well, actually......

(I am in fact strongly townreading them.)

it's harder to read/engage with because Ydrasse, Pichu, Double the Trouble, Polar Bear Express, and Pooky are all posting low quality content

I agree, especially Ydrasse, pichu and Polar Bear Express.

This is an INCREDIBLY bad take from Creature and I am inclined to think that such a horrendously bad series of posts from Creature is strongly indicative of him being scum.

I don't think Pichu's content is low quality.

Agreed; 1102 is quite a good example of good content from pichu.

Ok I don't like Ydrasse's posting

This is a very bad take from Spiffeh and it makes me more and more fond of my scumteam theory.

Which, to remind people:
Is Battle Mage, Spiffeh, Creature, and one more, yet-to-be-certain name. Current candidates for fourth are, in my opinion: {Not Known 15, MURDERCAT, Dr Easy Bake, Ircher}. (In no particular order.)

I actually am quite liking this solve because BM is looking like scum, I haven't liked Spiffeh's pushes or reasons, Creature looks like he's pretty damn scum, so from there it's just POE to find the fourth.

[mastina]

Also it's almost guaranteed there will have at least one scum topposting so we may as well push those artificially raising their postcount.

Spoiler: You mean artificially raising their postcount like this?

Oh this started

But I'm really tired now

also my hydra partner insists on using the black skin. He doesn't understand how much better sepia is.

Maybe your hydra partner likes having an eyesight?

dam imagine being ignored
pedit: CREATURE SEPIA IS THE BEST SKIN OK

Oh yeah my blind friend loves it
(They just didn't realize I changed to mafblack long ago while they were away)

if you think sepia is bad let me introduce you to mafsilver

Both blinding

Creature was my deep wolf because he doesn't lose 1v1's late game.

Only when I'm against two full bulletproof town

Ok you all have until page 10 to interact w/ Flavor Leaf and then after that just ignore him so he can't artificially inflate the post count and make Town apathetic TIA

Why do I have to interact with Flavor Leaf?

(Said after having interacted with FL anyway.)

Open if you're interested in doing mock draftsPlayers down to do mock drafts:
Alisae
MURDERCAT

Basically the plan is we're gonna do mock drafts and after the draft concludes we're gonna talk about why we went with what we did. We might get something out of it, we might not, but regardless its all fun and games and thats mostly why we're doing it.

Okay sure

You could like not quote the giant posts?

spoiler= is your friend

Noraa posting like she is from the r/fluffycommunity is annoying

I hope RVS phase is over

My Innocent Child meta comes and goes.

Sometimes it lasts in love, but sometimes it hurts instead.

My Innocent Child meta comes and goes.

Sometimes it lasts in love, but sometimes it hurts instead.

Adele

Caine

Oh my

Can't feel any more energy to play mafia

Lately been too obsessed with an anime and a song can't get off from playing in my head

He uses DATE Month(shorthand) YEAR, TIME
no am or pm at the end

Isn't day/month/year 0:00-23:59 the correct?

Because if that is indeed the sort of artificially raising your postcount that you think at least one scum will do...as a matter of fact, I happen to agree with you!

[mastina]

Despite having not posted anything of value, or read anything of significance - I am Mastina's top scumread.

Yes, exactly--and you continue to have not posted anything of value.

Instead of posting something of value while on V/LA, you've made literally twelve posts explaining why you aren't making anything of value while V/LA.

You spent the time typing TWELVE POSTS to explain "I don't do content while V/LA".
Twelve posts of explaining why you're not making content.

Instead of one post explaining it and eleven of doing anything resembling scumhunting.
Or one post explaining, a second post clarifying, and ten posts of some rudimentary basic scumhunting.
Or even just one post where you officially and publicly declare to the mod that you're V/LA over the weekend, leaving it at just that.
You've made twelve posts, and all of them are excuses to avoid making content.

a good townie takes a view on these things based on activity across all games.

I did, actually--there was activity from you, content activity,

after

this game has started. I cannot go into more detail than this without violating the Ongoing Games discussion rule, but suffice to say: this game started on Friday; you were posting content elsewhere on Saturday.

You literally were active in at least one other game while doing nothing in this game.

[mastina]

Fair warning: I am sick right now so may not be able to be as lucid as normal or as active as normal.
Still tho, need to do this.

Hey mastina I also think Creature has a good shot at being scum do you town read me yet?

You are not above distancing or even bussing one or two scumbuddies (and, opposite, white knighting town players especially ones which have some pressure but aren't actually likely eliminations) if you think doing so will set you up to eliminate double that in town, so no.

Your efforts prior to 1188 have been focused on pushing slots that're probably town but are very easy to come up with reasons to scumread.

Do I think you're lockscum? Hell no. In terms of play, you're one of the towniest slots in term of content among my poe list. (Admittedly not much of a feat, I confess.) Do I feel that you should be town for your content, though? Also no.

[mastina]

Allow me to sum up the last 10 pages of content

Allow me to sum up the last few murdercat posts

Accurate and is justifiably a reason why MURDERCAT is in the poe.

I genuinely feel that the vast majority of the active players are town, and that the vast majority of the scum will be in the more lurkery slots.

Not necessarily lurking in posting frequency (tho that can also be true), but in the nature of the 'content' they are posting.

MURDERCAT is near the top of the charts for slots active lurking in a scum-indicative way.

[mastina]

ok sure VOTE: Ircher

(While I recognize there is a fair chance that Ircher is scum, if he is not, then this is by far the scummiest Ircher vote on that page.)

[mastina]

we will eliminate someone from this list today:
Double Trouble
Ircher
Battle Mage
Dunnstral

Considering that Double Trouble is painfully obviously town here.
And considering that Dunnstral is giving off very very strong townvibes with a ton of good takes here and I think that his approach is highly town-indicative.

I will never support a wagon on either of them.

So the list of eliminations to me would then be Ircher, Battle Mage.

I'm willing to compromise-vote on Ircher, but only with the specific caveat that you cannot blame me if he flips town, because while there's a reasonable chance for him to be scum, it is far from a guarantee.

I vastly, VASTLY prefer Battle Mage here because he is pretty damn transparently scum this game.

[mastina]

I for one, welcome our Pooky overlord who is letting me ignore almost all of you

Murdercatto really wants to get put in the POE

It would be a welcome addition since MURDERCAT's chances of flipping scum are at least equal to Ircher's--which is to say, infinitesimally higher than Dunn/Double's chances.

norwee hasn't done that thing where he obvtowns yet

Except Norwee has?

I realize that Alisae's posts are, overall, less town than Norwee's posts are (tho there are still strong town indicates from Alisae's half, too!).
But Norwee's posts are plenty town.

norwee is like very very easy to read

I agree with this assessment!

I disagree that Norwee hasn't shown it!

[mastina]

Am I giving Toogeloo and Bell too much credit?

Nope! Both have shown themselves town when around. I realize it can be easy to forget the townness of a slot when they stop posting for a while (and the inverse is also true, to forget the scumness of a slot when they stop posting for a while, thus why lurking is such a strong scum tactic), but if you go and reread their posts outside of iso (as in, look at the posts they are making not in isolation, but rather on the pages they made them to see the content around them), you'll quickly be reminded of why they are town.

I would compromise on Battle Mage, but wouldn't really be happy about it unless it flipped scum.

I mean that goes for literally every player on every slot they're not scumreading.
(It is close to my stance on Ircher tho. I wouldn't be happy if I was forced to compromise there because Battle Mage is just transparently scum here, but I'd be more okay with it if he did flip scum.)

[mastina]

[quote="In post 1420, Ircher"

i turned up
i saw 28 pages
i used search function for "battle mage"

This is 100% buyable. I do something similar from time to time. Furthermore, given Battle Mage's demeanor, this seems 100% inline as something they would do.[/quote]

X

Battle Mage himself admitted it's something he's never done before--and for good reason, because it is very much not in character with his towngame whatsoever.

[mastina]

Eh, I don't agree mainly cuz Creature is coming off as not at all invested in the game's outcome.

And which alignment is Creature more likely to be when he's not invested in the game's outcome?

I realize his townplay has atrophied and his scumplay has improved.

But I would still expect the alignment he cares less as, to be scum.

VOTE: Double the Trouble
I have played with Norwegianboy in the past. This isn't town. This is scum drowning the thread with distracting and spammy posts.

I consider this lazy-at-best, scum-at-worst considering that Norwegian is far from spammy; the spammy posts come from Alisae, who is very much not scum for that trait. (If anything, the opposite.)

[mastina]

i uh
don't like this
hmm
~mist

I think Toogeloo's take is bad, but I very much don't think it's scum-Toog. I think it's a questionable take that happens to be wrong, but which comes from town.

1491 is a much better take (and closer to my own thoughts), and equally as highly likely to come from town.

[mastina]

this man is actually trying to read off of Flavor Leaf's posts

No, he's scum faking pretty damn transparently bad reads with bad takes.

I said this was very obviously Battle Mage's scumgame and I stand by that assertion.

[mastina]

can someone give me a heads up if i get to -1 so i can claim? lol

For the record I have very strong reasons to believe that this approach from Battle Mage is him as scum, too. It is not how he approaches being wagoned as town and it is not how he softs a claim as town.

[mastina]

ok as you can tell I've run out of steam...I'll keep going tomorrow until I catch up

Ah yes.

Your 'content' can be summed up as:
Polar Bear Express is an unlikely FL pick (this is fair); Ali/Norwee would be a top pick (this is a bad take that fuels the paranoia on the slot when it's pretty damn clearly false).

Speculating that the confscum talking indicates I am scum (this is a bad take for pretty obvious reasons); calling mastina-Dunn one town/one scum also off of the confscum (this is also a bad take for the same obvious reasons); Bell town (this is fair, as BM should see Bell's townness); reaffirming Noraa's town (this is fair); calling Ydrasse scum (this is a bad take).

Asking for a heads up if at L-1, proving that you're reading the thread because what good would this notification do for you if you weren't? (this is important enough of something that I'm going to requote that post to point it out since I missed this implication the first time).

Calling Toogeloo town (this is fair).

Elaborating on your stance which proves you are reading the game without commenting on it.

Placing an opportunistic vote on Double the Trouble and indicating you are aware that the ic said that there were four names in contention with Ircher and Double Trouble as two of them.

Taking back the bad-Ydrasse take and calling Ydrasse town (this is fair).

Calling Solstice scum, a take that's questionable (I cannot in good faith call it a bad take because there's at least some merit to the accusation, but it is still a questionable stance to take due to the ease and convenience of it).

Calling pichu town (this is fair).

A fluff post, followed by another fluff post.

And then you declaring you're out of steam.

So to reiterate.
Bad reads on 2-5 slots, where you do take back the bad read on one but leave the bad reads on the others.
Good reads on 4, later 5, slots.

And nothing more.

You've developed reads on a grand total of 9 slots (if I am being generous), in a 17-player game. After having read 730 posts, where every slot had posted at least once in that timeframe. You have reads, half of which are bad, on literally only half the playerlist.

Why are people thinking this is in any way Battle Mage as town?
He's being lazy.
He's making bad, easy takes, and avoiding taking stances on most players.
He's refusing to give the game much in the way of actual content.
And this is him after his V/LA has ended.

[mastina]

can someone give me a heads up if i get to -1 so i can claim? lol

it's best to give warning when you put someone at E-1 so they can claim, in case they are a power role, or just because it's good practice/good for the game.

To reiterate:

Battle Mage claimed yesterday that, while on his V/LA, he was not reading the thread.
Battle Mage is asking that, if he is put to L-1, for it to be announced.
If Battle Mage was not reading the thread,

how would he be able to see the declaration of being at L-1

?

To see that he's at L-1 inherently requires that he is reading the thread enough to know it has happened...something he previously said he wasn't doing. To refresh your memory:

HOW DO YOU FIND THE ONE POST THAT CALLS YOU OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A BUNCH OF PAGE
WHAT
HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN

i turned up
i saw 28 pages
i used search function for "battle mage"
I spent 5 minutes wondering why the fuck somebody had posted Morning Mage quotes.
i responded to a nice msg from Norwee

He claimed he responded to the message not due to reading the thread, but finding it with a search.

HOW DO YOU FIND THE ONE POST THAT CALLS YOU OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A BUNCH OF PAGE
WHAT
HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN

i turned up
i saw 28 pages
i used search function for "battle mage"
I spent 5 minutes wondering why the fuck somebody had posted Morning Mage quotes.
i responded to a nice msg from Norwee

i mean yes but why

i dunno, never done it before tbh. *shrug*

But when asked why he, allegedly, searched for his name inthread, he answers he doesn't know why and that he's never done it before.

So he's claiming he wasn't reading, that he found it through doing something he's never done before and had no reason to do here...but he wants to know if he gets to L-1 which requires...him to be reading the thread.

Which is cemented here:

also better VOTE: double the trouble as I owe Ircher one.

This post is indicative that Battle Mage is aware that Pooky made a pool of 4 players to eliminate within, containing both Ircher and Double the Trouble. It's a case of TMI given his stated narrative.

None of the posts in that range mentioned Pooky's pool of four, and yet somehow Battle Mage knows to vote Double the Trouble, one of the names in that pool of four, over Ircher, another name in the pool of four?

I call bullshit.

Battle Mage has read most of the thread already. Maybe genuinely not all of it, but he knows far, far more than he is pretending he knows.

[mastina]

every1 already voting in the POE-4 pls give me your top SR and top TR in the POE-4 with reasons thanks.

My top scumread is Battle Mage because almost all of his claims are full of shit.

I know for a fact he posted content in other games during the time period he claims to have been V/LA in this game. In spite of no content in this game.

I know for a fact that his claim to have searched for his name is bullshit because this is the search result that'd be generated from it. It is far, far more likely that he was reading during his V/LA and not giving content, but felt the need to give a pop-in, so he invented an excuse to do so, banking on nobody checking his claimed method and hoping nobody would call this behavior out.

I know that he's softing a power role, but I know for a fact that the way he's doing so is his scum meta because town-BM does not soft in that way whereas scum-BM does.

Battle Mage's play here is his scum meta through and through, start to finish.

As for top townread, that I cannot give you as two of my top townreads are in your pool and you asked for me to describe only one--but Dunnstral and Double the Trouble are both equally not-scum to me in both being locktown reads of mine in my townbloc.

[mastina]

I guarantee Titus veto'd me first to ensure this wouldn't be a scum walkover

I pretty much guarantee that if Titus didn't pick me before FL locked you in, she certainly did the moment he did.

[mastina]

How are you quoting posts without catching up? Are you reading and not posting?

Pretty damn self-evidently: yes.

He has been since the get-go, he's just been pretending otherwise.

[mastina]

I don’t do that on D1, I’ll vote here.
VOTE: Ircher

This can die ASAP

Oh yeah I missed this.

Willing to say now that Spiffeh could indeed be town.

[mastina]

@Those on the Ircher/Trouble/BM wagons: What's the best reason you want to elim the person you are voting for?

It's hard to be sure when it comes to BM as there's a multitude of reasons he is by far the best option in the pool of four, but perhaps the strongest overall would be:

Battle Mage is caught in a lie, for having made multiple claims that, with a little research, can be easily proven to be false.

Who would you like to add to the POE-4 if we do a rotation? Who would you like to remove? State a reason(1 submission each)

Add: one of {MURDERCAT, Creature}, probably. (I know you said 1 submission, but I can't choose which of them is better).
Remove: one of {Dunnstral, Double the Trouble} (ditto; I know you said 1 submission but because my townreads are equal on both I can't choose which to remove since I'd prefer them both removed).

Creature's content more recently is better, but overall he looks like he's scum this game in attitude and approach.
MURDERCAT's an active lurker who is contributing almost nothing, something that makes them a suspect.

Dunnstral radiates an aura of towniness and is taking an approach I find hard to be from scum.
Norwegian and Alisae have both, individually, towntold pretty hard, demonstrating townness radiating from them.

[mastina]

Like the biggest thing that both me and norwee agree on is that town!dunn has no agenda. But this dunnstral very clearly has an agenda and is trying to push it. ESPECIALLY when all I'm asking for them is to justify their read and they refuse to engage with me.

I am very strongly of the opinion that you-Dunn is town-town.

[mastina]

I just played a game with Dunnstral where he was town and had an agenda
I think you're being a little tunnelly and OMGUS-y here
(which makes me think you're more likely to be town btw)

I agree with this, and, overall, think it means Spiffeh is probably town here, albeit with a healthy dosage of paranoia.

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu
Double The Trouble

Bell
Ydrasse
Polar Bear Express

Solstice

Spiffeh



NotKnown15
MURDERCAT

Ircher
Dr Easy Bake

Creature

Battle Mage
Flavor Leaf

This is loosely where I am at.

Conftown, strong-town, weak-town, town-with-healthy-paranoia, possible-scum, lean-scum, scumread, confscum. (Yes, confscum; I am that sure Battle Mage is scum here.)

[mastina]

This is an INCREDIBLY bad take from Creature and I am inclined to think that such a horrendously bad series of posts from Creature is strongly indicative of him being scum.

(In reference to 1116.) How so? From my perspective, it's a pretty accurate assessment. They are 1) posting a lot 2) not posting stuff that helps drive the game forward and 3) generally making it difficult for people who are behind to catch up by the sheer volume of posts. Also, Creature didn't really assign an alignment to any of the named slots; he suggested it may be a possible scum strategy, but that's a fair assessment. Finally, you don't seem to take issue with Dunnstral's comment. What makes Creature's comment worse than the comment of Dunnstral's that Creature quoted in his post?

Both of these have much the same answer: different players with different playstyles.
I would expect Dunnstral to make the post he did and it not be a scum indicator for him.
I would expect Creature to be hard-disagreeing with Dunnstral if he were town especially given he himself is among the slots that were guilty of the thing Dunnstral was complaining about.
I said it was an incredibly bad take from

Creature

--not an incredibly bad take in general. An incredibly bad take specific to him, because Creature should be among the players who is fine with the fluff especially as he himself produces it.

Not complaining about it, especially when at least one of the slots he mentioned (pichu) made some incredibly good content that was impossible to make without the fluff, and the take was incredibly unfair towards him as he HAS been pretty damn content-filled in his posts beyond the fluffier Ydrasse engagement (which counts as sorting Ydrasse so is fluff with a purpose).

Basically, Dunnstral complaining? Not remarkable, not scum-indicative.

Creature complaining?

He should, of ALL the players in the game, be the one LEAST likely to have done so as his own style is similar to the one pichu was showing.

[mastina]

Like the biggest thing that both me and norwee agree on is that town!dunn has no agenda. But this dunnstral very clearly has an agenda and is trying to push it. ESPECIALLY when all I'm asking for them is to justify their read and they refuse to engage with me.

I am very strongly of the opinion that you-Dunn is town-town.

let's talk about it, maybe you can ease me up to it

I feel like if you were outside of the two of you, it'd be more obvious as textbook townvtown and that if it were me vs Dunnstral, for instance, with Dunnstral doing to me what he's doing to you and me doing to Dunnstral what he's doing to you, you in particular Ali would be the first to call it TvT and be frustrated at how stubbornness, ego, tunneling, with a side of omgusing, caused a very loud large tvt fight.

Beyond that as a description.

All I can offer you up is that I feel Dunnstral looks town overall. His fight with you is bad, but that can also be said of your fight with him. He's shown himself to still be scumhunting elsewhere and to have solid thoughts and pushes, and with the amount of reasoning I'd expect from him.

[mastina]

Just won my 3rd scum game in a 2 week span, how confident you guys feeling here?

Speaking of which.

Hey, guess who reviewed that game? (That would be me.)

Guess who was reading that game with spectator access and spoilers? (That would be me.)

Guess which game, once it is officially announced as over (I've gotten chastised by listmods for linking to games that I know are over but the mod hasn't officially announced them being over), I can use to prove that Battle Mage this game is a fucking liar?

[mastina]

Solstice

Spiffeh

wha
whats going on here?

I think that Spiffeh's more recent content is in fact town-indicative for him overall. The pushes he's making are mostly good and have reasonable logic to them.

His earlier pushes, including on Solstice, were questionable, but I think he's shown a town mindset overall.

I happen to think his scumread on Solstice is wrong, because I think that, overall, this is probably Mistygirl's towngame and Morning Tweet has also produced some better content.

Both reads I admit are not infallible, but at least on D1 I feel like it's definitely fine to call them both conditionally-town.

[mastina]

mistygirl is what I called mistyx as a nickname.

I wasn't sure if that was a you-specific nickname for her or if she likes being called that in general. Back to calling her Misty then.

mastina how do you feel about Pichu's read on Solstice?

You mean this?

pichu how strong is your solstice townread?

they're unsure/a slight scumlean
so not a townread at all
Morning's posts gave me slight spooks but Misty's were better
they'll probably be more readable with time

If this is what you're referring to: that's pretty much almost exactly my thoughts, except north of null rather than south of null.

Morning's posts are weird, but I can see them as town in spite of my initial reaction being scum.
Misty's posts were much much better and look like the typical town Misty I know.

[mastina]

Town treestump or not, this is still an awful post and awful idea, and I'm going to continue repeating this until you reevaluate. I townread at least half this pool (including me), probably 3/4s even. (Battle Mage is the main question mark due to not contributing over the weekend.)

Yaknow what.

I think I'm going to actually call Ircher town for this.

It might seem odd.

Out of all the things Ircher's posted, this is the thing that makes me think town?

But actually...as a matter of fact: yes.

I do not believe that scum-Ircher takes this approach to the town treestump. I realize that he's in the list so he has reason to say this regardless, but the way he's going about it and the mindset and attitude is something that I don't think scum-Ircher has the gall to do.
Specifically because.

I expect the scum here to, unless absolutely desperate, mostly sheep the ic and try to get on Pooky's good side to manipulate Pooky.
Ircher's post here is doing the opposite and it doesn't look out of desperation. He's actively antagonizing Pooky, something that is likely to earn the ire of our conftown. And that's not something I think he does if scum, especially not with FL at the reigns.

So, yes: I am going out on a limb here and saying Ircher is probably town here now.

Yes, really.

So I happen to actually agree with his assessment here; I think 3/4 of the names in Pooky's list are town, with the only scum being Battle Mage.

[mastina]

PookyTheMagicalBear
Netflix and Chill
Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu
Double The Trouble
Polar Bear Express*
Ydrasse*

Bell

Solstice
Ircher

Spiffeh



NotKnown15
MURDERCAT

Dr Easy Bake

Creature

Battle Mage
Flavor Leaf

*These names would be a tier lower if not for me placing a lot of faith in the players vouching for this being their towngame, and because of those vouches I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and place them this high off of that trust.

Conftown strong town lean town town-with-healthy-paranoia lean scum de facto scum scumread confscum.
I feel like this is a pretty damn good spot to be in on D1. With 4 scum, there's 5 candidates to me and while it's definitely possible someone I am townreading is scum, I feel like in terms of a D1 solve this is pretty damn good.

[mastina]

Battle Mage

(6):

mastina

,

Creature

,

Toogeloo

,

Spiffeh

,

Dunnstral, Double the Trouble

Ircher

(6):

Solstice

,

Netflix and Chill

,

MURDERCAT

,

Bell

,

Polar Bear Express

,

Dr Easy Bake

Double the Trouble

(4):

pichu, Ydrasse

,

Not Known 15

,

Battle Mage

MURDERCAT

(1):

Ircher

So here's the VC colorcoded with my reads:

Red = confscum; orange = scumreads; yellow = lean scum; black = de facto scum;
Green = conftown; blue = strong town; cyan = lean town; white = town with a healthy dose of paranoia.

The Battle Mage wagon, aside from Creature, with some paranoia on Spiffeh, seems largely pure.
The Ircher wagon, aside from MURDERCAT and DEB, is mostly good, but isn't nearly as pure.
The Double the Trouble wagon, while having a def-town front half, is pretty damn scum in the second half.

[mastina]

What do you make of Ircher and BM's respective votes?

I've made my stance on Battle Mage's vote clear enough; it is very very obviously scum-motivated and indicative.

I feel like Ircher's vote runs against the scum general strategy that I am expecting. I'm not sure if I should explain what I am expecting from scum, but if my theory is correct the vc I did is a perfect fit for what I think scum would be doing right now, and Ircher's vote is entirely outside of it in being something that's strongly an indicator that he's not scum enacting FL's plan.

[mastina]

Also since Battle Mage reminded me of his posting, this feels the appropriate time to do this:
The game thread opened at Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:50 pm.
Everyone received the daystart PM on Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:59 pm.
So everyone, at approximately 5 pm pst on Friday December 4th, knew that D1 had began and was open.

@Titus why are you not voting NPOM? I think I missed that.

Because I was a) holding out for BM and b) was going to quick hammer if you voted him.

VLA until Sunday

weren't you voting me for hammering yesterday? (although it wasn't exactly quick, and was very much facilitated by superbowl)

This is a content post by Battle Mage made in that Normal on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:01 pm. A full 20 hours after the start of our game.

I figure it's obvious to scum that I'm a PR at this point anyway so I'll do my proper claim.

Hey BM why do you think this would be obvious to scum or to anyone? I didn’t see where you crumbed it.

lol! maybe ask Flavor Leaf or Titus since they both picked up on it. i was hinting at it for numerous posts today, after I figured there was a risk we wouldn't elim OWER unless I gave a bit more help.

This is another content post made by Battle Mage. On Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:05 pm.

also, i don't even have the paranoia of OWER-town in a weird setup with 2 town protectives and a roleblocker, given if that was the case scum would just have taken up my offer to elim him, then me.

This is

a third

content post by Battle Mage on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:06 pm.

Titus let me be blunt here. You’re acting an awful lot like a fourth scum and this is ELO. I get both NPOM’s and BM’s claims are suspect as fuck. But the fact you’re literally waiting out in the wings for a quick hammer (your words) instead of voting NPOM when in your world there is no way I could be scum is sus as fuck. You’re not even considering traitor which is normal, and I don’t know if the above is a slip. Give me a reason by play you’re town here. Not mechanics. Play.

how on earth is Titus acting like it's ELO? and how is my claim remotely "suspect"? I really hope, if my solve is right, you're just screwing around, and not actually going to throw the game for town.

This is a fourth content post by Battle Mage, on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:10 pm.

I feel like there is probably not one town player left alive who has played well, and virtually every town player who is dead, had a better showing.

This is (an incredibly accurate on-point) fifth content post by Battle Mage, on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:12 pm.

it seems very simple to me. We have 2 claimed protectives. Me and OWER. Unlikely, given all the other claimed and revealed roles. How the claimed masons don't see it, is beyond me. I figure it goes like this: Ranny sheeps Math
Math stalls but ultimately does whatever Titus and Flavor Leaf tell him
I have no idea why but whatever. Just seems a shitty way to lose when we can easily win this.

This is a seventh content post by Battle Mage, on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:22 pm.

I figure it's obvious to scum that I'm a PR at this point anyway so I'll do my proper claim.

Hey BM why do you think this would be obvious to scum or to anyone? I didn’t see where you crumbed it.

lol! maybe ask Flavor Leaf or Titus since they both picked up on it. i was hinting at it for numerous posts today, after I figured there was a risk we wouldn't elim OWER unless I gave a bit more help.

So you started crumbing it day 3?

it wasn't really crumbing, i was dropping whole fking loaves. i was hoping Titus or FL would be town, take the hint, and we could bury it in content so I wouldnt have to claim.

This is the eighth content post from Battle Mage, on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:23 pm.

it seems to me that you're about to throw away the game regardless of anything I say because you are listening to Titus and FL and not me. You'll forgive me if I don't waste my time going back to dig out quotes which you can easily find yourself (you were here when this all happened and I know you're not stupid). absolutely ridiculous

This is the ninth content post from Battle Mage, on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:27 pm.

But here's the important part, and the REAL bombshell.

can you just look at the claims please, and tell me setup-wise what makes sense - 1 protective and investigative on alternating nights - yes. 2 protectives which overlap awkwardly - no. that's essentially what this boils down to. i only 'crumbed' when i knew it was necessary to risk outting my role to get OWER-elimmed. it doesn't make sense for me to do that as a gambit to save hypothetical partner NPOM when it buys me maximum of 1 mis-elim for 2 consecutive scum elims, or potentially 2 consecutive scum-elims and conftowning somebody else.

If you are masons, think about the permutations here - what makes sense in terms of setup and also the way each player has approached it. It's not like BM doesn't fakeclaim as town often if there's a reason, and it's pretty obvious that the manner I claimed VT (under no pressure, and using the excuse of being neighbourhooded to make it believable) was just to stop me being NKed. My role is alternate night so it kinda relies on me surviving a few night phases to get value from it.

This is the tenth content post from Battle Mage on Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:41 pm.
Notice something?

Yo where my man Battle Mage at, he knows his shit.
Call out to mah boiiiii.
- Norwee

I'm here buddy. 28 pages on the weekend I'm VLA.
shiiiiiiit
I'm town anyway, I guess Pooky wasn't given the opportunity to pick me.
Team FL go go go!

This was Battle Mage's first post in this game, a declaration that he's V/LA on weekends...at Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:32 pm.

Battle Mage made nine content posts in another game before declaring V/LA in this game, then

went back to that game to post more

and still doing nothing.

He made his eleventh content post at Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:44 pm.
His twelfth content post at Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:44 pm.
His thirteenth content post at Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:47 pm.

And then he came back to this thread to post:

HOW DO YOU FIND THE ONE POST THAT CALLS YOU OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A BUNCH OF PAGE
WHAT
HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN

i turned up
i saw 28 pages
i used search function for "battle mage"
I spent 5 minutes wondering why the fuck somebody had posted Morning Mage quotes.
i responded to a nice msg from Norwee

Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:50 pm.

Yo where my man Battle Mage at, he knows his shit.
Call out to mah boiiiii.
- Norwee

I'm here buddy. 28 pages on the weekend I'm VLA.
shiiiiiiit
I'm town anyway, I guess Pooky wasn't given the opportunity to pick me.
Team FL go go go!

Have you been reading?

....no. see VLA.

He claimed V/LA as an excuse to not make content at Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:51 pm.

And why is this important? Because after claiming V/LA as an excuse to not make content in this game...

lol scumslip? dude get real.
also, ftr i am never "coached" as scum - people who try, get bussed to death immediately. consider me checked out for the day, as I think this is a lost cause. Math seems more interested in keeping FL happy than elimming scum or even talking about the possibility of elimming scum, or even talking to me about anything actually useful.

...He made his fourteenth content post of that game, AFTER this, at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:04 pm.
And a fifteenth, at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:07 pm.
And a sixteenth, at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:09 pm.
Here's his seventeenth content post, at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:11 pm.
Here's his eighteenth content post on Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:17 pm.

And then, there is a timegap from him posting again there...which doesn't correlate to him posting here. (Because his last post here that day was at Sat Dec 05, 2020 1:58 pm.)

VOTE: Nopoweroverme
doesn't look like we can do anything else anyway. what a joke. at least there's a statistical chance he can be scum. It's virtually unanimous anyway, and I'm obviously wasting my breath with Mathblade. But I'm sure my solve is right and this probably flips town. Whatever.

He does however return to make his twentieth content post of the day at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:35 pm.
Followed by 21st content at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:36 pm.
And 22nd content post on Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:38 pm.
With other slight gaps following, because his 23rd content post was at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:44 pm;
His 24th content post was at Sat Dec 05, 2020 2:53 pm.

And that was it for him in that game.
He made 24 posts of content in another game, all the while clinging to "I'm V/LA, I can't post content over the weekend" in this game.

That game was him as town, posting up a storm during the time he's V/LA.

So yes.

I have a pretty damn compelling case that Battle Mage's claim of not making content due to being V/LA over the weekend is utter bullshit.

[mastina]

Okay so I made a small formatting error and counting error in that post and I realize in hindsight I could have turned a lot of those quotes into just links so I probably need to restate this:

This game began on Friday, December 4th, at approximately 5 pm.
On Saturday, December 5th, Battle Mage posted ~23 content posts in another game. 8 before he posted here, then 9-12 before he returned here, at which time, he claimed he was V/LA and could not produce content.
After saying he could not produce content, he then made ten posts of content in that other game.

He was town in that other game where he was posting content over the weekend that he was V/LA during.

So what does that say about his lack of content and hiding behind his V/LA as an excuse this game?

[mastina]

(If you want to see this yourself, pages four through five of his game search history is where, as of this second, you can see this interaction happen. I linked to page five, so you can go to page four to see it continue. When BM posts more in games, this link'll be obsolete tho.)

[mastina]

(Also, FL, can I just say: I am lowkey glad that you won TGP's Normal because while I was disappointed in Titus there and how the game ended in spite of most of the town correctly calling the scum...you winning there allowed me to actually make this case because if TGP's game had drawn out to a 3p lylo where every lylo day phase lasted close to the maximum time, it'd be at least 2-8 weeks before I could make this case. But since you did win that game, ending it, I was allowed to make it now rather than waiting the full 2-8 weeks. )

[mastina]

your 'case' appears to be that i posted in some games and not others whilst on VLA.

It's more than that.
It's you making twelve posts in this game where you insist you're not reading the game and are using V/LA as an excuse to not make content during that time...while there is active proof across the site that your statements in this game were a lie, as well as proof in this game that your claim to have not been reading is also a lie.

I.e., that you made multiple posts insisting on V/LA as an excuse to not read and not make content...when there's proof that, given the chance to post 12 times, and given the things you displayed awareness of, that you were reading and could produce content during that time.

I had some time, just not enough time to actively keep up with the majority so I cherry-picked ones where I thought my contribution would be most needed in that window.

And yet, something ongoing-games-friendly from you where you said this, is not what you said. You didn't say "I'm V/LA over the weekend and this game just started so I don't have the time for this game right now", or something to that effect, where you mention that you have limited time on the weekend and that you can't spend that time on this game but it's fine because it just started.

You made multiple posts where you made a blanket "I'm V/LA, therefore, not able to make content"--multiple posts. One post was all you needed to make, but you made multiple posts affirming that V/LA. Multiple posts that take your previous-am-V/LA-on-weekends time. You felt the need to make twelve posts on the weekend emphasizing this V/LA, rather than just one and spending the time of those 11 posts elsewhere.

[mastina]

haha my scum meta is lurking, but i havent been lurking here, I spent the weekend with my daughter and then had work either side, plus more games than I normally have.

Yes and during that V/LA time you felt the need to make 12 contentless posts rather than just one, while displaying knowledge that you shouldn't have if you were genuinely not reading the game. And upon coming back, you produced a bunch of lame posts that, while technically content, were incredibly lackluster, lacking real substance/depth to them. And then with reads on less than half the playerlist, called it a night, on your first day back.

And only when you became the lead wagon did you pick up your activity.

[mastina]

there is definitely a problem with this site meta that posting lots of words, a la Mastina, is considered good, even if the underlying logic is fundamentally flawed

I've said this before and I will say it countless times more.

I will always be verbose, is part of my nature as someone with autism. I will say with 10 words what 2 words would perhaps still convey.

But I am never townread for the amount of words, nor am I sheeped because I make the words.
I am townread because of the content within the words and sheeped because it resonates.

The argument of "people sheep long posts that are bad" frequently comes from scum trying to out-maneuver me, and just as often this is pretty damn evident when they insist that my posts are bad/flawed...and yet when called out on it, either they refuse to explain, or their explanation is flawed, or they misrepresent my stance and rely on people not rereading my posts to realize that they were doing so.

Rare is the day that someone says my logic is fundamentally flawed, and then they accurately point out logical reasons that my logic is actually flawed--and when they actually do so, I will fully acknowledge them by owning up to having made a bad argument and listen to their point because of their genuinely good take.

But since the majority of the people who make the "mastina's logic is bad" argument are scum, they can't do that solid logical reason because of their alignment meaning they rely on flawed logic to 'counter' my logic, don't explain, or make a reasonable argument that relies on misrepping my posts and portraying them in a way that's easier to, so to speak, defeat.

It seems you're opting for a combination of flawed logic with a side of misrepping me as your method of attempting to counter my argument.

I'm sure she has noted that my activity was similar to here in the majority of my games, but it's inconvenient for her 'case'.

You did not make 12 posts declaring yourself V/LA over the weekend in your other games. That is a trait unique to this one.

In fact, TGP's Normal was not the only game you made content in at the time, but obviously TGP's is the only one which I can discuss due to it being the only one that ended. The relevant spot for this is currently on page 13 of this search, to be moved further back for people when you post more and to become unable to be viewed come Saturday.

If you were in six games, it is correct to say you did not post content in all of them.
But you didn't post at all in three of them if so. (I count two instances of you posting in the endgame of completed games, then a total of three games, two being this one and TGP's game.)
You did post here, making this game indeed unique among your ongoing games.

As the only game you were a living player in, that you posted in, but posted zero content during, but still posted a lot.

[mastina]

oh really
i'll look into that BM

I did since I figured I'd be the only player who bothered to check.

Battle Mage has claimed that, at the time, he was an active player in 6 games, including this one and TGP's recently-ended Mini Normal.
This shouldn't be one of them, because it is listed as being in postgame. It cannot be one of the games he didn't post content in as a result.
This also shouldn't be one of them, because it is listed as being in postgame. It cannot be one of the games he didn't post content in as a result.

He didn't post content in this game, but posted 12 times here.

He posted content in TGP's now-completed Normal and one other game.

He didn't post in any other game, not even contentless.
It was a total of five games--two in postgame at the time he posted in them, a third being TGP's, and a fourth being this game.

So why the contentless posting in this game, rather than either not posting at all (what he claims is what he'd do on V/LA), or the content posting of the other two?

Why did he display a trait unique to this game?

[mastina]

my request to Pooky, and the town as a whole I guess, is to actually give me more than 2-3 real life days to do something useful and obvtowny, rather than elim me because I didnt have time to keep up with and post properly in the majority of my games over the weekend. I think that's a little opportunistic and slimey.

By the way.

On this note.

There is a lovely quote I want to give from a fairly obscure game that I feel does a good job of explaining why Battle Mage is scum here.

Subject: Mini 2096: I Don't Remember the Name of This Game

I Also, I was legitimately just really busy IRL which is why my posting/catch ups were limited and I maintain that was a bad reason to scumread my slot.

Nah, that was the individual scumtell I talk about above, and an excellent reason to suspect you. Scum and town tend to play differently when they have little time. Town motivated players will often try to ensure they do as much as they can with their limited time: naked votes, claims, really important questions. People who have time to whine in thread about how unfair it is when they are busy irl are usually scum. They try to use limited access as an excuse to lurk. These players also tend to continue whining postgame and claim that they'd have done the exact same thing as town, but they keep flipping scum!

Contrast: I did a sixty hour work week over six days from about three rl days into this game.

Ever since I had the pleasure of playing with Fonz in that game, I have taken this to heart, and yes, it remains true to this day, and anecdotally I've noticed I follow it myself. (Where as scum when V/LA I use it as an excuse to not be around but as town when V/LA I still try to give

something

.)

This game Battle Mage insists that his twelve posts while V/LA that gave zero content were something he'd do as town--maybe he genuinely believes that he would do that as town.

But twelve posts essentially 'whining' that he's V/LA is something that is far, far more likely to just actually come from scum.

[mastina]

I think softing pr on day 1 is risky play cuz u might attract trackers/watchers/cops/whatever. Methinks its not optimal play for scum!BM here especially cuz if he didn't, his wagon wouldn't have exploded like that(imo)

Softing a PR is also a great way for scum to avoid being eliminated on D1 without being forced to commit to a specific claim, giving them time to tailor a custom-made claim that fits far better into the game. (Something which FL is notably apt at doing.)

By letting it be a soft rather than forcing a hardclaim he's accountable for, you let scum get away with murder. Quite literally.

[mastina]

I think Norwee-Alisae is probably scum. Hard to believe 2 such capable players, 1 of whom has lots of experience with me, would both be scumreading me here.

What was i supposed to townread you off? Your inordinate amount of nothing stances and dodgy behaviour? BoP arguments only really work if meta suggests i’m wrong, but if we go by meta you are clearly acting way off your normal townie behaviour.

- Norwee

I mean what exactly are you expecting me to be seeing from you here?

A town BM that makes weak votes, says they didn’t read the game but not really, and in the end brings up Burden of Proficiency when called out on it?

- Norwee

For the record: these are both solid posts for casing BM as scum and showing why Norwee is town.

[mastina]

The point is that you didn't have enough to read me off full stop. In essence, I wouldn't expect 2 good independent protown players to both settle on a top scumread of a guy who was VLA for the 48 hour life of the game. Doesn't mean you should have townread me either. But the fact you came to such a strong consensus doesn't look legit.

Haha yes, that would sound good for you if it wasn't an blatant misrepresentation of our read.

It is in fact your still avoidance of any real read and engagement on the thread (ignoring your attack on us, as that's easy for scum!you to replicate) that's been increasing my scumread on you for every minute since that V/LA has subsided.

- Norwee

Another good post for why BM is scum and Norwee is town.

[mastina]

And I think it was possible that mastina could have been bussing battle mage, and I was going to take steps to find that out

If it's any consolidation: in the entirety of my time on mafiascum, I think there's a grand total of one time where as scum, on D1, I hard-committed to a hard-bus on my scumbuddy: the original XP Mafia, where the scumbuddy was Kokichi Oma and doing so in a cross-bus was a deliberate (and successful) gambit to perfectly divide the town 50-50 in thinking one of us was scum, but not the other, with half thinking it was us and half thinking it was Kokichi.

That game lacked a D1 elimination though and we were confident that our push wasn't enough to actually eliminate Kokichi, anyway.

I've distanced plenty from scumbuddies on D1, especially if the plan was for me to be eliminated by the town. (Pine vs Camn was probably the best example of this; we knew that I was going to go down on D1 so we tried to set it up so that I would go down first and that there was a chance my scumbuddies wouldn't.)

But I almost never hard-bus, and when I do, there's good reason to have done so.

i know i say this in every mastina game, but the idea someone is "locktown" because they share 1 read with you is...not good.

There's no player in this game who is locktown for sharing one read with me. This does however remind me: it would probably do a lot of good if I typed an indepth post explaining each and every one of my reads (tho I may slack on BM in said list given that around half of my posts are the case for why he's scum this game).

I should probably prioritize catching up before I attempt that though.

Does scum-Ircher take this approach if FlavorLeaf asks them to, and if yes, is it likely that FL asks them to?

A scum-Ircher would take this approach if FL asked him to, but FL wouldn't ask him to, at least not at that point in the game given the scum strategy that I am anticipating. This is far more likely to be an independent thought which comes from town.

page 51. I'm coming round to the idea that I'd like to elim a quieter low-profile slot today. seems to work a treat in large themes lately.

Funny because until recently and maybe even after that (haven't gotten caught up so don't know the nature of all your content), you'd count as a quieter slot that was acting uncharacteristically low-profile.

[mastina]

odd to see Creature popping up again to complain about gamestate when they haven't been doing much themselves.

Funny, that seems to perfectly capture you complaining about the gamestate of you being wagoned when you haven't done much yourself.

[mastina]

Also mastina is very convincing tbh its quite unusual.

I've been quite convincing for the last two years or so!

And yet, people never cease to be surprised that I'm making reasonable and rational points in my cases.

this is my 3rd game with mastina this year. in all 3 games, she decided i was scum at the beginning and did little else other than tunnel me for the duration. In 1 game I was scum, in the other 2 town (incl. this one). I don't consider her read on me to be genuine, it's just what mastina does.

Just for the record.

Battle Mage is using the exact same style of discrediting me that Flavor Leaf uses.

I'd love to call that proof that BM is one of FL's chosen scum, but sadly, I am forced to admit that BM's style of discrediting me is almost assuredly uninfluenced by FL in that if BM were scum trying to discredit me in a different game lacking a scum-FL he'd be no different.

I do find it fascinating tho. That both BM and FL have the exact same style of trying to discredit me when they're scum. Is probably among the reasons FL picked Battle Mage, if I had to guess; FL sees BM as a scum player whose style resonates with his own.

[mastina]

i mean, i've never done it before as town

or scum

, so isn't that the definition of being NAI?

No.

When you claim to have done an action you've never done before as town or scum, there is, very likely, an alignment-indicative reason for having done it for the first time.

In the case of this game, the town reason to have done it is: ???
There's nothing I can think of as justification to have done it as town.

In the case of this game, the scum reason to have done it is, EITHER: you didn't, you lied and invented this as your excuse for the beetlegeus appearance, OR: you read the scum PT, were being kept up to date, and searched for your name to augment the information from the scum PT in making your appearance.

Both are fairly compelling reasons for you to have claimed to have done it, and both fit with your apparent knowledge of things you shouldn't have knowledge of.

I'm not going to re-tread old ground and respond to the Mastina stuff in detail.

AKA, you can't actually argue against them because they're true.

It's all a bit like this - superficial one-dimensional takes which don't show any evidence of balanced objective assessment.

I believe I've done a pretty damn good job in showing this is false, that my takes have plenty of evidence backing their assessment and that there is depth to them.

[mastina]

lol Mastina, I'm very strongly of the opinion that you are literally just throwing a townread to everyone who votes me. madness

Creature voted you and he is very much not a townread of me.

I can also describe the reasons for my townread on every slot in the game I am townreading, and none of the reasons are "I don't think they're scum with BM" or "I think their BM vote makes them town".

Try again to misrep me.

[mastina]

Becoming more and more ok with a BattleMage elim

Not thrilled with his approach to Double Trouble, holding a scum read on them is fine but I feel like his catch up has an ulterior motive of calling Double Trouble scummy at every opportunity for reasons that aren't all that compelling. It's like he went into his catchup with the intention of painting Double Trouble in a scummy light rather than naturally coming to that conclusion as he read.

Funnily enough, he's also projecting, by saying that *I* had the intention of painting *him* in a scummy light rather than naturally coming to that conclusion as I found evidence.

Butyeah,

And it's very CONVENIENT that he chose Double Trouble to do this to because they are apart of the Pooky's PoE and probably the most likely elimination after himself

And in Xenoblade 2 he was effortlessly town and after his latest catchup posts I'm not getting that vibe at all

This is not Battle Mage as town even remotely, and his push on Double the Trouble is TMI from him having known the elimination pool of 4 before he should've had this knowledge.

which ordinarily might be TSTBS but with FL coaching nothing would surprise me.
Ydrasse - I just dont know. Probably town based on meta, but something about the bombastic attitude here feels Flavorsome. And I think Ydrasse might be more excited about trying to one-up Pooky here.

By the way, Battle Mage.
You've repeatedly gone on record as saying, "we shouldn't townread a player for being in their town meta, because FL could be coaching them".

So if you genuinely believe that a player looking to be in their town meta cannot be trusted to be town, and IF you insist that this is your town meta (it's not)--why should we trust that when by your own logic, we shouldn't trust you to be town off of meta?

[mastina]

@Ircher

RE reads list
You have a lot of scum reads and scum leans, no? I count 8 people you seen actively worried about.

I had nine at one point, so I'm not too concerned about that, so long as he hones in and refines it. (Also, on D1, I find that an acceptable scumpool is double the number of scum in the game. This game has 4, so 8 scumreads on D1 is acceptable, although ideal is ~6.)

[mastina]

And you're assuming her reads are all off the mark, just like that game as well

While my reads were far from perfect that game (and nobody that game can claim to have done otherwise themselves as literally nobody had absolutely perfect reads), they were still pretty damn good? I lead the D1 elimination on scum, critically had very vital townreads on key town players that were otherwise being scumread, and identified two of the four remaining scum as well.

I had two scum that I misread, and three town that I misread. That's it. I had accurate reads on 15/20 slots that game that I had a need to read. 15/20 correct reads translates into 4/5 translates into 80% read accuracy. Given 5/23 players were scum which is a 21% scum ratio, that's not bad for being informed of the alignment of two slots in the game. (If you included them, it'd be 17/22, a 77% accuracy rate, still decent.)

Where is the idea that my reads were all off the mark that game coming from?

i also hilariously enough am not reading mastina's posts on why you're a liar much cause I think she suffers from some kind of bias as well

The idea that I have bias in my reads is a scum narrative. (It is an argument almost exclusively made by scum. Almost. FL has made it as town and BM is the same sort of player as FL so him making that argument isn't something inherently in of itself scum-indicative from him. Butstill, the argument that I have bias towards specific players is one frequently made in an attempt to discredit my, usually quite valid, reasons for being suspicious of the slot.)

My reads are always based off of the evidence in the current game, supported by the evidence from past games that I am familiar with.

While it is possible that the reads I generate in that method are wrong (and in fact frequently are as my read accuracy is not much higher than random overall), they are not, inherently, biased.

[mastina]

lol i wasnt reading (see: VLA) and thought i might be nearly getting elimmed as I had seen a few votes (presumably when using the search function). i'm not sure what's weird about it - it was just wrong.

Alternatively: the scum picked up and emphasized the multiple slots that stated BM suspicion regardless of their votes and BM took this to mean that he was under more pressure than he was, especially if the slots suspicious of him at the time were particularly strong talking points in the scum PT.

Why would Battle Mage think he was close to being eliminated otherwise? As he himself said--the votes showed that belief to be wrong so if he used the search function, it'd show that, at the time, he was under no real risk.

Far more likely is that he was informed by his scumbuddies that he was under threat, and thought it worse than it was off of listening to them.

All Mastina's other reads are based on a presumption of BM-scum, whereby she townreads those who attack me, and scumreads those who don't.

False, literally none of my reads are on the assumption of Battle Mage being scum. If anything it'd be the opposite; I'm ignoring evidence which may change my read on slots if I were to listen to it in relationship to BM.

BM sounds extremely sincere here.

He labelled the post AtE and for good reason--because it is an appeal to emotions that is his only defense given that he is otherwise pretty clearly scum.

[mastina]

This is a good point though; Battle Mage is a bit too self-focused when he's in no danger of dying. That said, it fits his personality.

Not in my experience.

The Battle Mage as scum I've encountered when threatened reacted pretty much the way he is here.
The Battle Mage as town I've encountered when threatened still had this aura of smug superiority in knowing he was town, knowing he wouldn't be eliminated, and continuing to scumhunt on a large scale.

ok as you can tell I've run out of steam...I'll keep going tomorrow until I catch up

Having read 27 pages, you didn't seem to contribute much.

Yup, and which alignment do you think will contribute less when under this sort of pressure?

[mastina]

A. Why on earth would BM-scum pretend not to be reading the game? Where's the motive?

Take your pick, any of these are options.
1: Allows you to get away with not faking content during a time you're genuinely V/LA--you don't want to put in the effort over the weekend as scum because reading is less effort than writing.
2: In the current meta, scum lurking and letting town eat itself up in TvTs is an incredibly strong scum strategy. FL is not above utilizing it as a, on a grander scale, scum strategy for winning the game, if he thinks he can successfully maintain the TvTs.
3: Allows you to create refined, stronger points when you come in and attack the areas you've had the time to observe are weakspots in the town's stances/arguments, while pretending that these arguments were made blindly.
4: Faking a stream of consciousness catchup when you're actually informed is rather easy to pull off. If you're more aware than you're pretending, then there can be towncred in taking stances that're informed from that extra reading.
5: You can write things out in advance in the scum PT, and then finish them inthread, to let your scumbuddies check the posts and let them give feedback on what you're intending to say.

Among other possible reasons.

Would it be all of these at the same time? Probably not! But this is an incomplete list of possible explanations. Suffice to say: there are some.

B. If I had actually read the game, why would I subsequently spend several hours trawling through and giving my thoughts on everything?

Ties into one of the above options. It takes far less time to read than it does to write. If you read in advance and pretend not to, then the writing takes less time and produces better content for the result. However, it does still take time. Less time than reading-while-responding, but still some time.

But you can't exactly not give thoughts at all and expect to live, can you? So you NEED to post content, even if it's on things that you read in advance.

Plus, your initial 'catchup' where you were sparse in quoting posts and mostly went 'page x, thoughts on page' looks like this exact approach, where you read in advance and didn't feel like putting in the extra effort to quote content from those pages, so you summarized them.

C. If I had read the game, why would I say something about possibly being close to E-1, when I was nowhere near?

This is fair since I did technically say "BM has read the thread or at least most of it" and it is in fact inaccurate to accuse you of having read all of the game. A more accurate stance would be "BM has read at least some of the thread when pretending he hasn't and is showing knowledge indicative that he's read more than he claims he has". Which is to say, you didn't read the whole thread, but read more than you claimed, so you wouldn't know you weren't near L-1.

2. Mastina alleges that BM lied about being on VLA to avoid posting in this game, whilst posting in other games, implying he is scum here and town elsewhere.

False. I allege that you are genuinely V/LA but your 12 non-content posts while on V/LA while making content-posts or no posts in other games, is indicative of being scum in this game who was doing more than he said he was, behind the scenes.

As the rest of your points are in relationship to a claim I never made, they are irrelevant.

Do you think, given we are now 80 pages into the game, there is anything else of merit for you to comment on?

Yes, and I continue to do so.

While the majority of my content is outlining why you are scum, my posts are not exclusively about your scumness; I have addressed reads on other slots. I should give a full indepth readslist with reasons, and it's among the things that I intend to do soon(TM).

You could give some thoughts on other players besides me - reads which don't simply lean on your false premise of me being scum.

I have reads on every player in the game and none of them rely on their read on you. Quite the opposite; reads that might be different if I were to look at their interactions with you (Noraa's bad defense of you, Creature's calling you scum), I am, explicitly,

ignoring

, in favor of my own read on them (Noraa's town anyway, Creature's a scum candidate anyway).

Or you could give some thoughts on the things I've actually posted

I have and continue to do so--

The posts you make show TMI, are weak reasons on weaker slots aside from the TMI Double Trouble push, and largely underwhelming.

[mastina]

Essentially your argument is:
"Battle Mage posted a few times here, but nothing substantial, during his VLA"
The biggest problem is...then what? Why does that make me any more likely to be scum?

I will requote the Fonz quote for why it makes you scum:

There is a lovely quote I want to give from a fairly obscure game that I feel does a good job of explaining why Battle Mage is scum here.

Subject: Mini 2096: I Don't Remember the Name of This Game

I Also, I was legitimately just really busy IRL which is why my posting/catch ups were limited and I maintain that was a bad reason to scumread my slot.

Nah, that was the individual scumtell I talk about above, and an excellent reason to suspect you. Scum and town tend to play differently when they have little time. Town motivated players will often try to ensure they do as much as they can with their limited time: naked votes, claims, really important questions. People who have time to whine in thread about how unfair it is when they are busy irl are usually scum. They try to use limited access as an excuse to lurk. These players also tend to continue whining postgame and claim that they'd have done the exact same thing as town, but they keep flipping scum!

Contrast: I did a sixty hour work week over six days from about three rl days into this game.

Ever since I had the pleasure of playing with Fonz in that game, I have taken this to heart, and yes, it remains true to this day, and anecdotally I've noticed I follow it myself. (Where as scum when V/LA I use it as an excuse to not be around but as town when V/LA I still try to give

something

.)

This game Battle Mage insists that his twelve posts while V/LA that gave zero content were something he'd do as town--maybe he genuinely believes that he would do that as town.

But twelve posts essentially 'whining' that he's V/LA is something that is far, far more likely to just actually come from scum.

Your twelve posts while V/LA lacking content also have zero town motivation.

There was no town motivation behind making twelve contentless posts while V/LA.

There was scum motivation behind those posts while V/LA, that I have already explained extensively.

[mastina]

I mean the reality Mastina, if you cared to consider it, is that I displayed a unique trait in each game, as I posted with different frequencies in each (including in some, as you note, not at all). It isn't as simple as "BM did a unique thing in this game whilst in other games he followed a clear post/don't post pattern" - that is factually untrue. But you're still missing the pivotal question, which is why me doing something different in 1 game, implies I'm town in all of the others and scum here.

That's not what I meant by unique trait and you arguing it is in bad faith.

You said that you've never before searched for your name before, yet you allegedly did so over the weekend while V/LA.

That is a trait unique to this game, in an entirely different way than "didn't post in a game" or "posted content in a game". Having different posting frequency is something that has happened in dozens of your past games. Having searched for your name is something you've never done before.

But even were it what I meant, the unique trait displayed in this game is one that is, inherently, a trait more likely to come from scum.

If you were totally inactive while v/la, that would be a nai trait. Neither alignment is more or less likely to do this; it's inherently null.
If you were active and producing content while v/la, that would be a town trait. (Because town being active and producing content while V/LA is a town trait.)
But by being 'active' so to speak and producing twelve contentless posts while V/LA, that trait is, uniquely, a scum trait. (Because scum being 'active' and not producing content while V/LA is a scum trait.)

[mastina]

[ I was "uncharacteristically low-profile" whilst on VLA and not posting in the majority of my games, as you have admitted yourself.

I was referring to your content on Monday in that post.

Your Monday content was incredibly lackluster, and yes--at the end of Monday, during a time you were no longer V/LA, by the time you stopped posting for that day, you were still a quieter slot that was uncharacteristically low-profile.

[mastina]

I've done probably more than anybody in the 2 days i've actually been here.

You've done a lot of defending yourself, making a TMI push on Double the Trouble that was highly convenient and self-serving as highly survivalistic, and aside from that one push, made lackluster points otherwise. Your reads on most players are weak and largely using bad reasoning and are, by and large, attacking low-hanging fruit that are easy to paint as scum.

[mastina]

another bit of friendly advice: if you are town, your objective should be to FIND OUT WHO IS SCUM, not SET OUT TO FRAME SOMEONE AS SCUM, as per the bold above.

I feel obligated to point out that the bolded was not in fact framing someone as scum and was me pointing out that it is not evidence of him being scum, specifically doing the "find out who is scum" part by pointing out it

wasn't

something indicative of you being scum.

Only Battle Mage can take a statement which was in

defense

of him, and turn it into a comment that was malicious slander.

[mastina]

I was VLA, I had a couple mins

You had a couple of minutes while V/LA and that was enough time over two days to make twelve contentless posts, and you spent those couple of minutes on those contentless posts rather than elsewhere doing something productive or here doing something productive?

You decided that, with a couple minutes to spare, it was important to post contentless posts in here, rather than, decided that, with a couple minutes to spare, you'd do something with that time? And then, rather than leaving it at just one contentless post that was low-effort, decided it was so important that you needed to make twelve over two days?

This narrative does not flow.

but even if you were correct, you failed to make any attempt to argue why it would be alignment indicative for me to have the posting pattern I did here.

Apparently demonstrating that scum have a higher tendency to make excuses to avoid posting content when V/LA than town who will either not post at all or if posting will produce content, doesn't count as giving evidence.

Apparently showing the lack of town motivation while outlining the plethora of scum motivation, doesn't count as giving evidence.

Apparently showing how your narrative of your actions not lining up, and pointing out the inherent contradictions within that narrative, doesn't count as giving evidence.

[mastina]

For the record, making this known:
I read Morning's analysis of my posts.

Morning's analysis, as well as Ircher's analysis, of my posts, are precisely the type of engagement on my content that is a pro-town way to have analyzed the content critically, agreeing/disagreeing with it, putting actual thought into the validity or lack of it behind my points, and engaging me on it.

I do happen to think both are town for it, though I recognize that it's probably less alignment-indicative for Ircher.

It's clear that both are putting real thought into their conclusions. Real thought into conclusions does not, necessarily, mean town, but it is something that is at least promising. And in the case of Morning Tweet's analysis--I DO think it never comes from scum.

I know that effort does not necessarily equal town--but THAT effort with that purpose and that thought into it? Is town.

(I'm probably not explaining my thought as coherently as I should, but am a little bit out of it today headspace wise.)

[mastina]

Fluff post btw; you can skip this post, I just felt like addressing one of my main passions while I'm not playing mafia.

i'm playing the fortune comp and this is my payout after 12 round losses

we should play tft ! addd me

I'd be down to play tft any time but nobody plays on Oceania.
(I'm RBree2 on league.)

i don't play tft anymore but i would play league

I also play League. I wasn't really feeling it much before, so played like once or twice a week, but with the preseason item/rune changes, I was reinvigorated and theorycrafting as well as limit testing is a whole bunch of fun. (I'm somewhat active on the Ashe mains subreddit, too.)

I'm an Ashe onetrick (though I'm trying to also learn Samira as a secondary champ for when she's pick/banned by the enemy team), and I play her in 4/5 positions (tho Mid is, by far, my weakest and top has some bad matchups which I can't ban all of and requires me to not make mistakes). She, as a champion whose kit has a ton of utility, giving her huge innate flexibility, was a HUGE winner in terms of preseason item changes in my opinion, because she can legit run almost any build in the game in select circumstances. There's like 2-3 dps-oriented builds and like 2-3 more supporty-builds and 2-3 poke-oriented builds and while not seeing much use, there's an ease of a more bruisery build. (I realize that, overall, adcs are much much weaker in S11, and that she's not the only big winner of adcs, but I legit think she's strong if played well.)

My personal favorite build right now is an ultra-flexible starts-as-poke-but-transitions-into-dps build of arcane comet + manaflow band + celerity + gathering storm + approach velocity + biscuits, with a tear start. (I personally have also found it useful to buy a level 1 control ward to give my team warning towards enemy invades, but I realize that's greedy and that potx2 is a much safer start.) I buy an early vamp scepter for the sustain, then build Kraken Slayer.

From there, I prefer ravenous hydra (for the omnivamp, cdr to help the poke, waveclear, and high damage) then runaan's hurricane (for the extra waveclear, extra teamfight power, extra crit), then Infinity Edge (due to the raw damage, which at 60/80% crit is buffed from before this patch), and then situational items: {Blade of the Ruined King, Wit's End, Black Cleaver, completed Muramana, Phantom Dancer}.
BoRK for extra lifesteal, max health shred, attack damage, attack speed, and movespeed steal.
Wit's End for attack damage, attack speed, movespeed, magic damage, and magic resistance.
Black Cleaver for extra cdr, attack damage, armor shred, and health shred.
A completed Muramana for extra mana, extra cdr, and reasonably good attack damage.
Phantom Dancer for extra crit, movespeed, and attack speed.

Situational as to how the game is going. Need to shred tanks, need to survive longer, need magic resistance, lack a frontline that'll allow you to autoattack so you're forced to poke with volleys from afar, etc. Works pretty well. You can bully most enemy botlanes out of lane, burning their resources (potions, summoners, etc.) fairly easily especially if your support runs ignite, and then just starve them by punishing them for last-hitting while last-hitting yourself, and just generate gold/xp leads from them backing or better, you killing them. But I realize it's not the highest-dps possible build for her (lethal tempo with full crit outscales/outdamages this build), I just like it because I can make it work in most games of mine. (Granted, I'm iron 2 on Oceania, playing at 200 ping every game, sooooo. What works for me may not work universally.)

[mastina]

VOTE: Solstice

For the record: while I feel like the flashwagon on Solstice was town-motivated by and large, this vote is second only to Battle Mage's Solstice vote in chances of coming from scum.

[mastina]

In aabout seven or eight hours I should be fully free though

For the record: it is eight hours later.

I for one am looking forward to Creature's contributions during a time he should be fully free.

[mastina]

yes im town noraa, i've poured my heart and soul out in this thread.

And yet that heart and soul pouring out has generated very little in terms of solid gamesolving.

[mastina]

Pretty sure this is town!MT.

It is; you'll see it when I make my readslist but Solstice has joined the townbloc. As a top-tier townread.

[mastina]

VOTE: Battle Mage
It's time to end this day.

Hey so like.
Remember the mini normal that just ended where scum quickhammered on D1? (A move Flavor Leaf orchestrated?)

Remember how the town didn't policy-eliminate the quickhammerer and lost because of it?

I'm actually thinking that

regardless

of BM's alignment, that is, even if he flips scum: NK15 should die tomorrow, no exceptions.

[mastina]

@Spiffeh, why creature?

I can't answer for Spiffeh but I can answer for me:
VOTE: Creature

I still feel like this is not town-Creature, although yes I realize I need to take stock of my reads and give minor reevaluation to them--given that the game has four scum in it and I have only three players in my scumreads right now, at least one player I am townreading, by necessity,

must

be scum; I'll try to get more into it later. Plan for today is to read content and explain reads as they were, then hopefully later go into the work of reevaluating and reassessing those reads to try and form that coherent scumteam.

Until such a time though, Creature is a fine "I'd prefer to vote

someone

" vote, due to my prior suspicions there.

[mastina]

For god's sake man, the BM mislynch could've been pretty preventable had I had the time to prevent it.

VOTE: Battle Mage

Then probably enough time to test some wagons:
VOTE: Battle Mage

Suffice to say: trying to take the high ground after being on the miselimination wagon and having shown no hesitation nor any form of doubt prior to the death and yet insisting it was avoidable after is...

...A rather dubious claim, at best.

[mastina]

In general it's pretty clear scum are outlouding town and getting to dictate a bunch of mishits for town to hit while they surf under a constant circlejerk created by them.

This is also pretty transparently not the case--the vast majority of the loud town players are either obviously town or have already flipped town. It's a rats-ass-backwards take: the scum are, pretty obviously, letting the town be at each others' throats, a trait made easier by lurking and letting TvT fights take place.

[mastina]

imagine getting a doctor pm and then lol-hammering b4 the stumps says ok so you end up getting shot in the face at night by the vig and you dont even prevent the obvious nightkill. big lulz

I imagine NK15 will have a defense for his actions in the dead thread and insist it wasn't as egregious as we are presenting it to be in the postgame.

But uh.

It actually IS that egregiously terrible from him and yes. There is in fact: no excuse for it.

The day was not ready to end yet. There were still fairly important things to discuss. Eliminating Battle Mage isn't inherently something I can blame him for. But while I was a proponent for the Battle Mage elimination, I was not ready for the day to end, not even in said BM elimination. Almost nobody was; while the elimination for the day may have been decided as definitively being Battle Mage, there were still things to talk about beyond eliminating him. And given that Flavor Leaf JUST won a scumgame in large part due to encouraging his scumbuddy to lolhammer a town player on D1 (and they did precisely that)...what did NK15

think

was going to happen? He literally did a thing that FL instructed a scumbuddy to do in FL's most recently won scumgame.

That was not okay.

But since I'd rather not spend too much time speaking ill of the dead, best to move on.

[mastina]

I think a general flaw in your way of playing is that you see and express a lot things in black and white with an overwhelming degree of confidence. I feel your reads accuracy as well as your credibility would increase greatly if you took the time to consider the null and alternative hypotheses that do not align with your own alternative hypothesis, and weigh each of them carefully by their likelihood.

Actually I don't see things in black/white and I do consider alternative hypotheses and I do weigh each of them carefully by their likelihood.

People get the impression that I don't play with this mindset, but I literally wrote articles that explain the method I use: I balance the possibility/plausibility/probability of actions and their motivations; I consider which action is the most likely to be the case; when analyzing what a player has done, I assess the risks/rewards of them making this action as both alignments; I even try to differentiate between someone's narrative being complicated by their alignment and someone's actions being complicated by their alignment.

I simplify the image publicly, where I basically take shortcuts. I don't lay out all of the mental math I do which goes into showing the process behind me having reached my conclusions and considered other viewpoints and why I favor the one which I came up with. I put all that work in, but I do it in my head, rather than in the thread, with the thread being basically me outlining the final conclusion I came up with, skipping all of the intermediate steps where I did go through the effort of considering other possible takes, and mentally wrote the process for why they were less likely.

People think that I think in black/white terms because they only see the final product; they don't get to see the mental math where all of the grays come in most of the time. If you read those articles, I do the things in them all the time, constantly, neverendingly. In fact even right now, the cogs are spinning in my head, as I am mentally processing the strength of my reads on other players--but I'm not writing a post about it right now because I've yet to have the time to present the final product, it's still forming in my head because the thoughts there need time to solidify and be processed and form conclusions which aren't muddied grays, which at this second, they are.

(Also a notable contributor to this: I am very much, largely, a passive player. I react to content, because reacting to content helps me think of something concrete to put forward; reacting to things helps me solidify an image of an opinion beyond the grays I normally go through on my own.)

I see very little evidence that you ever stopped and asked yourself, "Could this had come from town!Battle Mage?"

Just because you don't see the evidence doesn't mean I didn't do it. As I said above--I keep it in my head. I don't air it out in-thread unless I feel that it is a well-formed, conclusive, solidified thought that has good merit to it.

In the case of Battle Mage, for instance, Morning Tweet's rather in-depth analysis of my case was something that did make me consider that my point about Battle Mage showing TMI was probably wrong, though I didn't get a chance to express this thought properly inthread because as you may note, I was rudely cut off by the thread lock due to a CERTAIN player deciding to lolhammer before we were ready to end the day.

I didn't unvote because Morning Tweet also made me think that my V/LA point was probably more valid, because, indeed, Battle Mage did in fact, constantly fail to address the point head-on. So I thought that, while one part of the case did not hold, at least one part of it

did

, and still made it fairly likely he was scum. This conclusion was, obviously, wrong, but it was an actual, thought-out, reasoned conclusion I reached after assessing both sides of the coin, town versus scum, and found the scum side stronger.

Is there actually any evidence in support of this? I don't think there is.

There is, actually, albeit admittedly anecdotal in nature. I remember dozens of games where scum players justified their unusual actions as "I've never done this before, just decided to try something new I guess", and surprise surprise, their motive for it was to avoid being caught for having done something unusual for them.

I have far far fewer memories of town having done it. I don't think it's zero examples from town, but it's very few examples from town versus dozens of examples from scum.

Which is to say: doing it is not a 100%-this-action-always-comes-from-scum scumtell.

I genuinely believe that it is, in the 60-75% range (by the metric of, "52.5% is the minimum to qualify as one), a scumtell, in the sense of, it is something scum are more likely to do, but not something which having been done is guaranteed to be scum. (As this game shows.)

An unbiased person would weigh the alternative hypotheses against one's hypothesis and at least attempt to address/acknowledge some of the counterarguments to their case. You have done no such thing towards BM, at least as far as I can tell.

I very much did address the counterarguments Battle Mage was making? And when someone made good points, I acknowledged them--not as much as I was intending to, but see again: day ended prematurely before I had the chance to.

Spoiler: Pages 90.4-96

2261 by mastina: "While the majority of my content is outlining why you are scum, my posts are not exclusively about your scumness" --> This is false. Your last 10 posts have been exactly you outlining your case again and again.

Your statement that my statement was false is in fact false; my statement was true.

The majority of my content was outlining why I believed Battle Mage was scum, including most of my posts around that time.

Saying all of my content was exclusively outlining why Battle Mage was a scumread, however, is, just as I said it then: false, because I have content aside from BM. 2738, 2733, 2713, 2684, 2193, sorta-2166, sections of 2118, half of 2098/2096, 1716, 1708, and 1705 are all examples of content that I have in that stage of the game which is not exclusively "Battle Mage is scum and here is why". Saying that most of my content was outlining my Battle Mage scumread? That is accurate and true. Saying

all

of my content was outlining my Battle Mage scumread? That is not.

[mastina]

I think she has been underwhelming this game and is also a potential pick.

This is not a genuine Creature stance,

least

of all on me.

If Creature's vote on me was a passive "meh might as well" vote or a vote to engage with me, I could plausibly, plausibly buy it as town (although it'd be doubtful). But Creature genuinely saying that I'm an actual scum candidate, especially for being 'underwhelming'?

Bullshit.

He literally noted my post count--that's a high fucking post count from me, especially since I have posted almost every single day the thread has been open and posted multiple times each time I came in to post, whereas scumastina tends to go the maximum length possible without getting prodded (and sometimes even then fails, picking up prods) and puts in only the number of posts necessary, nothing more.

And Creature knows this of me.

[mastina]

Feels like she is missing some things I'm familiar seeing from her.

I'm pretty sure the last time Creature said this of me, I was town.

My memory tells me he was scum that game, but I could be wrong on that, but Creature has definitely used this

exact

line on me before--and been, very notably and very obviously, wrong about it before.

[mastina]

While I think Creature’s probably wrong on Mastina, I’m also concerned about him possibly being lhf miselimbait.

Creature literally has as one of his three scummies, Moment of Brilliance for strong townplay.

I believe he's been a nominee for Paragon on multiple years (although I don't think he won any).

Creature is not low-hanging fruit.

Even after Creature's degredation in his townplay and upgrade in his scumplay, he is still an inherently competent town player who displays an aptitude for catching scum. Even after Creature's massive degredation in townplay and his upped scumgame meaning players are more paranoid of him and more willing to vote/eliminate him...

Creature still gets nightkilled as town

quite often, because in spite of him having lost his 'obvtownness', he still poses that threat off of his skills as a scumhunter.

Those skills here are

utterly absent

.

[mastina]

Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu
Double The Trouble
Polar Bear Express*
Ydrasse*

Bell

Solstice
Ircher

Spiffeh



MURDERCAT

Dr Easy Bake

Creature

This was my last readslist post of D1 with the dead players removed, but as the day so RUDELY ended due to SOMEONE hammering before we were ready, I didn't get to post the

actual

final readslist, which would've moved Solstice up to the conftown tier and also been kinder to Spiffeh, producing this:

Solstice
Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu
Double The Trouble
Polar Bear Express*
Ydrasse*

Spiffeh
Bell

Ircher




MURDERCAT

Dr Easy Bake

Creature



This is, obviously, not possible given there's four scum and only three south of null, so yes, I do need to reevaluate. I won't be able to give a full reevaluation, but to go into the names:

Solstice remains a top townread of mine even now. I've really liked Misty's contributions here, with my only worry being how sparse they are more recently. Morning Tweet bled pure town at the end of D1, in a way I don't think scum could, and while Morning Tweet was less active early (so the heads have traded places in which is more active), Morning Tweet's presence here is plenty healthy now. I think that they are going to be my strongest townread here going into D2.

Dunnstral was a top townread of mine because I thought that all of his content radiated an aura of townness. Even if his points weren't something I agreed with, I thought that they came from a town mindset and looked town overall. This is something I probably need to revisit in D2 with too many townreads and not enough scumreads for the setup. My first thought is, this is probably still Dunnstral as town, because overall his play here is a match to what I'd expect from Dunn as town more than scum, but I should also do some meta double-checking on this front. (It'll, unfortunately, be largely secondhand meta where I'd be reading games I didn't play in, so not as reliable, but may still help me on this assessment.)

Toogaloo had an immediate presence and energy radiating town and had lots of takes that I thought came from town. Just about the only reason I'd have had to doubt his townness is that he's someone I'd usually scumread (similar to my original Dunn stance here in having seen Dunn be scumreadable in my last Dunntown game), but Toogaloo himself acknowledged that trait in a way that radiated cheeky towniness to me. This is another read that, given too many townreads, I need to reevaluate.

pichu had a town aura and incredibly town energy, with incredibly high engagement, solid reads, solid reasoning, and solid takes. I feel like nothing pichu has done has an ounce of scum to it, and I don't care who is the main behind the account, I don't think any of the players likely to be in control are

that

good as scum, not even with FL as a coach. So I think that, come D2, this read remains one of my strongest townread.

Double the Trouble has looked good from both heads with both being overwhelmingly town to me. While I lack true familiarity with Norwegian's skills as scum and Ali isn't someone who I'd be able to definitively label as town, overall, I just think that my assessment of them as town is still correct, and I don't think that it's inaccurate. So I think they remain in the townbloc, no reassessment needed, albeit below both pichu and Solstice in strength.

Polar Bear Express and Ydrasse were both trust-reads, up there due to trust in basically every player in the know about them vouching for this being them as town. So far, it seems that, by and large, those in the know insist that this is still Polar Bear Express as town, not as sure on Ydrasse tho. If the people who I feel are in the know still insist that Ydrasse is town, then Ydrasse can stay there just like Polar Bear Express would.

So, tentative starting point for D2 in a loose readslist:

Solstice
pichu
Double the Trouble
Polar Bear Express*
Ydrasse**

Dunnstral, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Bell, Ircher (reevaluation needed, this spot probably has 1-2 scum in it)



MURDERCAT (I don't really townread MURDERCAT and with a lack of townread and with poe, is reasonable scum candidate)

Dr Easy Bake (is de facto scum)

Creature (I really don't think this is town-Creature)

Where the scumreads probably do have 2-3 scum in them, and the reevaluation slots have the other 1-2.

[mastina]

Dunnstral, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Bell, Ircher (reevaluation needed, this spot probably has 1-2 scum in it)

For the record:
I can say that the Bell of this game very much looks identical to the Bell of MBOS10, but I admit lack of familiarity with the nuances of him as a player to be able to tell if he is definitively town here.
Spiffeh I feel has been getting townier over the course of the game, but with at minimum one scum absent from my readslist, that healthy paranoia I have on him needs to be addressed because there's a rather significant risk that he is the scumteam's deepwolf. (Plus, on an unrelated note, going into the wifom-hole, if FL's claim of his first draft being the first four names on the playerlist was in any way remotely close to the truth, if Creature is scum, it lends some credence to the idea that Spiffeh could also be scum, with FL having been unable to draft all four due to the other two being picked as town, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, I feel that going down this rabbit hole is a mistake so I basically am writing this off as possible, but not probable.) Overall I'd still rate him as town, but if we have three scum flipped and can't find the fourth after multiple town deaths, it's worth revisiting on him. He's certainly not a priority-sort today imo so even if it's possible he's scum, I kinda want to townbin him anyway for now, to revisit it down the road if needed.

Ircher I feel is probably town here. I admit lack of familiarity with him, and I realize that I do need to acknowledge he does have several bad takes and that effort does not equal town and that his style of posting does have a lot of information in it with the analysis comparatively lackluster, all things that make it possible he's scum, but I also feel that Ircher was not following an FL script, that Ircher's stances and refusal to play ball with Pooky came from an inherently town point of view and that the indignance behind it did radiate a type of townness I don't think Ircher, even with FL, could fake.

So in terms of the names up here with 1-2 scum in them, I'd rate their townness as:

Ircher > Spiffeh (this and above means "not interested in really sorting today") >>>>>> Bell

>

Dunnstral = Toogaloo (Bell either equal or higher than Toog/Dunn, not quite sure which).

[mastina]

my engagement with this game has been shoddy and mostly based around league (i got plat 1 in tft today so like, diamond soon) but this feels right

Climbing in tft is pretty easy compared to League imo.

TFT is, mostly, luck-based, buuuuuut, there is some inherent skill involved in being able to craft a team comp that can persevere, and if you have a reasonable grasp on the meta, you can reliably manage to pull off higher-tier wins. Not always, but enough to overall make LP gains. Plus, you tend to win more LP from a win than you do lose LP from a loss. (It usually takes either incredible bad play or bad luck to place 8th, and usually takes a fair amount of both. Placing 7th requires a little bad play and/or a little bad luck. Placing 5th or 6th will be the majority of your LP losses, but while 5th place loss is identical to 4th place gain, being able to place 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th to off-balance 5th or 6th means it's pretty easy to climb.)

The main reason I don't climb higher in tft is honestly due to a combination of:
{Lack of motivation, the monotonous nature of playing that many games of tft, the restrictive nature of needing to run something viable and no ability to try out a comp for fun to see how it'll work, desire to do other things, a feeling that I've gotten to a place that's "good enough" already}, among others. (I reached Gold IV within the first week of tft set 4 and...haven't played ranked so much as once since then. At the time I spammed Warlords, Cultists, and Brawlers with a side of Elderwood, due to the ease of execution and flexibility of them. And also, because running a tank-heavy comp with Sunfire Cape was busted as fuck due to sunfire cape just being so strong. Even to this day I think that on a tank, it's an S-tier item since the only counterplay* to sunfire cape is to kill the unit burning you and tanks are resistant to that.)

*Tho shields tend to also work pretty well. That said, sunfire cape works pretty damn well on units with shields, too, so quite often, the main counter to sunfire cape is...a comp that itself uses a sunfire cape unit. I've had many a game where the last surviving units on both sides have a shield, and have shield v shield combat, often enhanced with sunfire and/or bramble vest.

[mastina]

Polar Bear Express*

who r u even trusting here

It feels like everyone who has played with Noraa is insisting that this is Noraa as town, most of them rather strongly so. And that even the other head has some townreads, too.

Who, with Noraa experience,

isn't

townreading Noraa at all?

I imagine there's some, but as far as I can tell, almost everyone is telling me the same thing, that this is Noraa as town. Some to locktown levels, some to town-but-dampened levels, some to town-but-needs-reassessment levels, but almost all saying town.

Am I wrong?

[mastina]

Murder I think has the most experience with noraa and is scumreading them.

I'll be honest, I didn't count MURDERCAT as part of the town because, see also: scumreading MURDERCAT.

How do oyu feel about his case on noraa?

I didn't even open the spoiler on it to so much as skim.

While we're at it, how do you feel about noraa's posting today?

Neutral with a side of town; nothing has struck me as scummy in it, but it's not bleeding town, but does loosely feel town.

[mastina]

Okay read the case.

I believe that Noraa's tone this game is fake and over the top.

This is not something I have any way of judging.

Skim through posts 1-500 in each of those games. Notice how much more exaggerated Noraa is here?

This is not something I trust myself to judge as a secondhand meta thing where I have no true reference point.

Now you might just look at those posts and think it is within Noraa's normal range, but look at page 2 in her iso.
viewtopic.php?p=12398736&user_select%5B ... #p12398736
Nothing in page 2 of the iso is anything like these first posts, suggesting to me that the tone is fake and she is having trouble keeping it up.

I feel like this is an unfair take though I don't have any way of explaining that thought.

Noraa has trouble making up cases as scum. Look at these posts in death curse (links rather than quotes due to length):
8962
9127
9233

Now compare to the case that Noraa has on me in this game:
2513
2523

For full context, the following posts are:
2514
2524

In both cases, there is no actual analysis happening. Noraa is linking a lot of quotes, providing a superficial description of the events, and claiming that I am scum off them without actually providing any reasoning behind her claims just as she did in my last scum game with her.

This one however I can definitely point out as being wrong. I actually did check out the links...but not just to the posts linked. To other posts not linked, surrounding the linked posts. In the links to Death Curse, Noraa's content surrounding the linked posts is defensive and does indeed lack scumhunting.

The Noraa posts surrounding the linked posts in this game

do

contain scumhunting. Not in the posts linked, but in posts on the very same page that were not linked. 2511 is a substantive, content-filled post on the same page as the linked 2513; near as I can tell, nothing resembling it existed in the Death Curse counterpart. 2516 is probably within Noraa's scumrange, but still contains depth that I did not see in the Death Curse link. Similar for 2517. 2521 also has some depth to it.

So for this point, I can say I definitely disagree with MURDERCAT here and in fact, this looks cherry-picked. Something where he deliberately takes the parts most similar between games, while ignoring the surrounding areas that are different.

However, given Gloria's lack of activity you would not expect her to 1. be particularly invested in the game and 2. have strong opinions about me.

These seem like bad assumptions to make. Being V/LA and lacking activity doesn't mean a lack of investment or inability to form a read, especially if your hydra partner is informing you of events in your hydra PT that you read even when you're not reading the thread.

However, there are a number of instances that suggest to me that Gloria is in a scum PT and is aware of certain pushes that need to be made (currently, this refers to attacking me, in an attempt to reduce the influence that I am having on the game as I am correct about Noraa scum).

If Gloria were a solo player, this would be a valid push. (Heck, I made a similar point about Battle Mage.)
If.

The problem is, she isn't.

She is, explicitly, part of a hydra.

A hydra that has a private topic and maybe more to talk in.

First, some evidence that Gloria shouldn't be very aware of the gamestate:

Pichu, Gloria isnt feeling well or something.

She's been talking to me a little bit about the game

but methinks she's either sick or sad.

Talking to Noraa a little bit about the game inherently implies that Gloria has at least some awareness of the gamestate imo.


SO.

For the case.

I can give no judgement on tone, but on the parts of the game that are actually things I can assess: this case feels very wrong, very narrow-minded, very manipulative, very specific, and not accurate at all.

Does that mean it's wrong? I'm not a Noraa guru, heck if I know.

But I can tell you as someone who doesn't know Noraa, that the case on her does look like it's not valid.

[mastina]

I actually did check out the links...but not just to the posts linked. To other posts not linked, surrounding the linked posts. In the links to Death Curse, Noraa's content surrounding the linked posts is defensive and does indeed lack scumhunting.

The Noraa posts surrounding the linked posts in this game

do

contain scumhunting. Not in the posts linked, but in posts on the very same page that were not linked. 2511 is a substantive, content-filled post on the same page as the linked 2513; near as I can tell, nothing resembling it existed in the Death Curse counterpart. 2516 is probably within Noraa's scumrange, but still contains depth that I did not see in the Death Curse link. Similar for 2517. 2521 also has some depth to it.

So for this point, I can say I definitely disagree with MURDERCAT here and in fact, this looks cherry-picked. Something where he deliberately takes the parts most similar between games, while ignoring the surrounding areas that are different.

To go into this in more detail. On the page of Death Curse's 8962, there was defensiveness, more defensiveness, MORE defensiveness, yet MORE defensiveness, and then the empty quoted posts that MURDERCAT linked to. Nothing else.

On the page of Death's Curse's 9127, there was giving up on 'scumhunting', and nothing else.

On the page of Death's Curse's 9233, there was this not-really-content post, a weak observation that I can easily tell is faked just from a glance (the closest content Noraa has in that game to this one), a fluff post, some Bell posts (probably also close to this game vaguely but they feel different), more defensiveness, lack of content, and what amounts to another 'giving up on content' post.

The third link MURDERCAT gave is the closest to this game, but tonality-wise and content-wise, the Death's Curse links feel vastly different from this game.

Because as mentioned: on the page MURDERCAT took posts comparing this game to Death's Curse, there is an immediate presence of content that immediately radiates off different energy from the scum links.

[mastina]

(Btw Ircher, example of thoughts I have that I sort out in my head but don't post:
To Norwee's spring of posts, I had the thought of "Norwee are you going to make me regret townreading your slot?", but then decided to not post it, and almost did nothing at all, letting that thought stir in my head until I could do something with it. But I decided that it'd make a good example of thoughts I have that normally don't make it into the thread because I haven't finished sorting them out, which thanks to being an example, I suppose I am putting forward even though I normally wouldn't.)

[mastina]

pichu's case I read. I don't find it compelling, but I also don't find it wrong in the same way I did MURDERCAT's case on Polar Bears Express.

he's the first to start townreading noraa and with such CONFIDENCE
but i feel town!Bell would have considerably more paranoia after the events of Death Curse (where Noraa deepwolfed with everyone convinced she was town and almost pulled out a phenomenal comeback)

This is at least plausible to me. Not overwhelmingly compellingly probable, but plausible.

there are other town in this game that townread Noraa - they have normal reactions to her getting suspicion
scum!Bell overreacts each time because he's decided to heavy buddy and defend her this game

This is also fairly plausible. It doesn't resonate as overwhelmingly probable, but it is definitely more than just possible.

The size of Ircher's posts versus the content and quality of the conclusions felt super lackluster to me.

just saying i hard disagree here
really liking Ircher now

I wanted to say that I agree Ircher looks probably town and do disagree with Bell's viewpoint, but I can see it as plausibly, maybe even probably, coming from town, although I do recognize the possibility, maybe plausibility, of that viewpoint being scum.

this type of narration of everything that transpired but drawing absolutely

no

strong conclusions either way from it is very scum-indicative
there's no comment on what it means for BM specifically or the people talking about BM
and the take on Solstice is the very definition of fence-sitting

I disagree on that being fencesitty from Bell on Solstice, but the overall take here is probably one of the strongest points (albeit one that I feel I should research in greater detail to verify its validity).

so EVEN IF town!Bell is just supremely confident Noraa is town - which i simply don't believe, i think it's unnatural and the fact he provides no reasoning for it throughout this game but just snaps at people who even dares suggest Noraa is scum is just full of agenda, a whiteknight there is how he's decided to play this game out
but EVEN IF that wasn't the case, Bell should not be jumping to scumreading MURDERCAT just for thinking Noraa is scum
there's no attempt to engage with his case or question into here
just a vote and saying his push alone is scummy because he disagree with the read
that's not a natural way to react, it's how scum reacts when they're trying to whiteknight someone

This is also one of the strongest points in the case. While I feel like the narrative is overly black-and-white in viewpoint (to use the term people try to describe of me), I see what pichu is talking about here in that Bell's reaction to MURDERCAT

is

overly strong, and I can see the at-minimum plausibility if not probability of that, albeit still able to see it possibly, perhaps plausibly, coming from town.

The rest of the case doesn't really resonate with me much at all, but overall?

Conclusion: lukewarm with an emphasis on 'warm'; Bell was among the slots I was townreading that I needed to reassess and judge if they are scum. The case doesn't hard-sell me on Bell being lockscum, but it does a fairly good job at showing the very real plausibility if not probability of Bell being scum by demonstrating the actions that're more likely to come from scum than town, a viewpoint I do find myself overall agreeing with, albeit with the caveat that I do feel the need to research before sheeping it wholly and unconditionally.

In other words:
Would vote.

I like my Creature vote more right now, but if I was seriously asked to genuinely join the Bell wagon, I probably would.

[mastina]

DUN Dun dun dun dun dun Dun dun, DUN Dun dun dun dun Dun dun dun.

GUYS THIS MEANS THAT THE SCUM IS DUNNSTRAL
LETS GO GET HIM BOYZ

If MURDERCAT is in fact town?

Actually quite likely! Creature + Bell + Dunn + DEB would be an incredibly likely combo, with the other one being Creature + Bell + Toog + DEB (or Creature + Bell + Spiffeh + DEB but as mentioned I wanna table Spiffeh-scum thoughts until three scum are dead, ideally).

Although I remain unconvinced that MURDERCAT is town.

[mastina]

Anyone townreads Ircher here?

(I am pretty sure that Creature playing around with the idea of wagoning Ircher here is pretty damn scum...especially if Bell IS scum since trying to get Ircher pressure would remove it from Bell.)

[mastina]

Mastina I believe to be town but *technically* she could be scum in the event Creature is town and she had a really good D1 -- like I don't think she is scum but I have never seen mastina scum, either, so perhaps she didn't exit her scumrange but it'd have to be quite big.

I can help (well, "help") you there:
At my absolute peak scum performance levels, D1 is not out of scumastina's scum range altogether, albeit requiring a perfect storm of me being at highest-level functioning capabilities across multiple areas rather than in one or two more specific areas. ~2015-2017-era scumastina was genuinely one of the best scum players onsite with a huge, huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge flexibility to her scumgame and notably gifted at situational awareness to adapt her scumplay to perfectly fit the needs of the particular game as to maximize her team's chances at winning.

However.

Over the last two years, my scumgame has been utterly atrocious. I've been a total lurksack whose contributions were notably lackluster with the difference between my scumplay and townplay being night and day, with my scumplay being minimal, using every excuse to avoid content, and coasting by with my towngame being more energetic.

However

however, I DID just have a scumgame where I approached near-peak-scumastina-levels. I was still, very visibly, not in my towngame, and there were multiple scum traits of mine present, but I exuded a "town aura" as scum, something which is

very

hard to pull off, yet I have shown the capacity to do as given by that game. Radiating townness as scum is something within my scumrange, which is why I invented the flowchart for how to read me.

The flowchart is, notably, a little dated; it's missing some of my most recent town/scumtells and in the case of being reasonable and rational, this is something that has become almost nai. (I am more reasonable and rational as both alignments and as town can be very convincing with logical deductions and outlining the process behind my conclusions, so just on a skim, you'd think nai, but as scum my arguments still tend to be even more "precise" than their town counterparts, extra-targeted, extra-concise in comparison, extra on-point, whereas my town cases tend to always have weaknesses in them if you look beyond the surface. Which is to say, my scum cases tend to be more "perfect" than my town cases are, in spite of me being logical in both.)

And a key aspect of it is that I'll never show every town trait in a towngame and never show every scum trait in a scumgame and may show some scum traits in a towngame and definitely will show some town traits in a scumgame, but that overall it is incredibly hard, over a sustained period of time, borderlining on nigh-impossible levels, for me to maintain a presence of almost all towntells as scum, whereas they flow more naturally as town.

Basically, while I will suffer burnout as both alignments, it's easier to suffer burnout as scum because being scum at the highest level of effort is more draining than being town at the highest level of effort (even though both are, notably, draining; I am incapable of maintaining the highest level of effort as town indefinitely, which is why I frequently have a mixture of low/high-energy posting days, with low ones being rest time and high ones being active time). The cracks in scumastina form over time with continued observation; the solidification of town-mastina becomes more readily apparent given time.

So that is to say,
tl;dr?
D1's not impossible from scumastina, but is incredibly improbable to be her.

[mastina]

Uh, wouldn't I be happy with the game state here.

Uh, I'm not gunna engage with Pichu's case on me it's the same forest fire shit and I know exactly what I'd say and what he'd say and do in response to every cherry pick, wrong take, pointed out to him etc.

Hey so like.

Remember how there was a summation of "Noraa as scum does not react well to pressure but does as town", more or less?

Yeah, well.

I am beginning to think that applies better to Bell than it does to Noraa.

I remember Bell got some pressure in MBOS10--and reacted completely differently than Bell is reacting here, similarly under pressure.

There, he had a certain energy and smugness to him; here he's radiating defensiveness.

Soyeah.

Definitely am seeing Bell-scum here now!

[mastina]

You didn't push me. I spent upwards of 8 hours telling you to your face what the truth was and it didn't matter. Call it AtE or what not. But the facts are the facts and you saying you weren't voting me in that at the end of day is just massaging your own play to look better in hindsight as a form of ego protection.

(Ironically. Bell's posts in this stage of the game actually look almost exactly like Noraa's posts in that one Noraa scumgame everyone is talking about which I can't remember the name of off the top of my head. The one which MURDERCAT linked to. Noraa's posts there when defending herself, look like Bell's posts here when defending himself.)

[mastina]

Would like to hear update from Mastina on recent events but leaning town for now.
- Norwee

Considering I've pointed out reasons for Bell being scum that, to my knowledge, are unique to me and things not presented by others before me, it is now me who could use the advice of others in confirming if I am onto something in regards to Bell's defensiveness when under pressure.

(Which is to say I think it's a solid indicator that he's scum.)

I also have thoughts on others, but they're best saved for after a Bell flip if we are flipping Bell today.

I'm debating whether to vote Bell or not; I only have one vote and to me, both Bell and Creature are equally scum.

But overall, I think I do lean towards doing this:
VOTE: Bell.

[mastina]

K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

This is, at the very least: a plausible claim with a plausible target.

I just happen to not believe Bell's town from it.

In my opinion, the claim is utterly dead null. It does nothing to make Bell more scum, but also does nothing to make Bell more town.

So where does that leave me?

Still voting Bell because I'm scumreading him anyway.

[mastina]

Dunnstral does barely anything and then does the beetlejuicy pop in when Bell claims detective to defend their claim.
- Norwee

I happen to be of the opinion it is indeed overall suspicious, yes.

Dunnstral's stance isn't terrible; he's correct that we don't have the info to tell how likely or unlikely the claim is. But because this more neutral stance with no stated Bell read is, overall, a defense of Bell, when Bell is being wagoned, there is at least the chance Dunn's defense, no matter how accurate it is, is from scum defending their scumbuddy without committing to a harder stance.

[mastina]

hi Creature bad vote

Agreed.

It's optimal to trust Bell's claim for now. We should have at least three other scum around.

Bad take that I happen to think comes from scum.

[mastina]

Also Spiffeh and mastina really looking like scum.

(If you think this is ever a stance a town Creature takes: it's not.)

I feel like if Bell were scum he would come up with a more useful thing to claim to ensure he survives the day? Especially with Flavor Leaf in his corner

I feel like there are claims Bell could make that are more likely to be scum, but I actually don't think that Bell can make a claim that's more likely to be town here than the claim he made. So I don't give towncred to the claim being "too scummy to actually be a scum roleclaim"; I see it as utterly dead null, and given that Bell's play looks like scum...

Why would creature scum ever defend Bell here?

Because,
1: FL doesn't like to bus and would encourage his scumteam to not bus.
2: Creature has nothing to lose by defending Bell and everything to gain. If Bell is eliminated and flips scum, Creature is next on the chopping block even without him defending Bell. Even if he bussed Bell, he'd probably be the D3 elimination. Ergo, Creature has a motive to defend Bell. Defending Bell and failing doesn't change anything because Creature knows he was going down D3 anyway; defending Bell and succeeding does change something, because it saves scum from being eliminated today.
3: I may be mistaken but I seem to recall Creature as scum busses less often anyway and tends to defend scumbuddies.

[mastina]

Ok yeah Toogeloo might be scum

Possible, but Bell's still scum regardless. Toogeloo's a good candidate for scum especially if you think Dunn to be town, but I wouldn't say Toogeloo's pop-in here is lock-scum. Possible scum, definitely; surefire scum, nahhhh.

This wagon comp is bad, I don't like it. Unvote.

Toogeloo is literally the first vote on the wagon that could be scum.

It is otherwise a quite stellar wagon that is, very clearly, self-evidently, towndriven.

[mastina]

[I like Ircher's readslist lots]

As do I!

I feel like {Bell, Creature} as lockscum is a good start, with {DEB} as a highly likely third and then the fourth being within {MURDERCAT, Dunnstral, Toogeloo}. Two from the latter category if you want to sub DEB out. 6 names for 4 scum is a really good POE solve pool.

[mastina]

So the reason I wasn't solving was because solving could get me killed.

I call bullshit on this given this playerlist. Bell, if solving, would never be a nightkill this game for like. At least a minimum of 3 nights.

This game has masons--FL killing Bell is not killing masons.
This game has many powertown players--FL killing Bell is not killing the powertown players.

Given both of that, Bell should've been well aware that he wouldn't be nightkilled, so not solving as an excuse to not be nightkilled is bullshit.

[mastina]

I honestly sound fine in every post

Since the latter half of D1, you actually do!

[mastina]

would you pick mastina? i hear you two don't gel together but you did fine in krazy's upick

Well to give you an idea.
I am an avid proponent of realclaiming because the truth is your greatest ally. If you are, genuinely, telling the truth, then that sincerity will bleed through and make your arguments more genuine and be better overall. Because if you're telling the truth, you cannot be found out by logical holes in your claim because there are none. By taking actions with a plausibly town role that are plausible from town to take, you are not going to be counterclaimed and you are going to look good for having done so.

Flavor Leaf is an avid proponent of lying through your ass and is addicted to a fakeclaiming complex. Whereas a simple claim would likely get the job done, FL loves to produce fakeclaims layered upon fakeclaims. And sometimes even deliberately plans a fakeclaim into a changed fakeclaim. And extends this to his scumbuddies as well. And when those scumbuddies don't go along with this plan, he breaks his no-bussing rule to bus them. (He's done this to jjh, who very much wasn't playing ball with FL, and to me, who also wasn't playing ball with him.)

So he can make it work.

But there is in fact a fundamental clash in fundamental mafia philosophies.

He also tends to make kills I would never make, and vice versa.

This fundamental clash in mafia philosophies and difference in kill philosophies can work out by mutually making it look like neither of us are in our scum MO by having it be half of one and half of the other and our natural clash causing us to naturally bus each other so that we don't look like scumbuddies; this is more or less what happened in Krazy's game.

But overall, I don't work well with FL. We can be strong as a scumteam in spite of that lack of teamwork...or rather, specifically

because

of that lack of teamwork. But there's no synergy, just anti-synergy. That doesn't mean FL wouldn't pick me, he could, but if so he would need to more or less create his entire scum strategy to revolve around the lack of synergy between us. I don't play ball with FL so if he made me scum he'd need to specifically develop the entirety of his scumplan to revolve around me not playing ball with him in his court. Which he could do. He didn't, at least not with me, because I'm town, but to have me as scum does require FL to play in a very specific way centered around that fundamental inherent clash in polar opposite mafia philosophies.

[mastina]

I will say there is one townie who is doing significantly better than the rest, but you won’t know who I think that is until post game.

It's usually me.

[mastina]

i briefly Pine vs ??? (sorry to town treestump i have forgotten) and loved the amount of work mastina poured into wifom alone with her walls

It makes a fine replacement to the rvs in this style of game, and can be of use even after that, especially for anticipating scum strategies. (For instance, I was of the belief that on D1, the scum were probably evenly distributed across all the major wagons that Pooky endorsed, because I believed that FL was probably letting Pooky take the reigns there and wanted the scum to be evenly spread out in not pushing any single option all the way through.)

And it has a place even later on in taking some part in speculations.

But overall, pick-speculation is, inherently, inferior to actual scumhunting because pick speculation relies on trying to guess the mindset of someone you cannot wholly guess their mindset (this is extra true for me in regards to FL; I am one of Pine's longest-time associates so I know his scum thought process intimately, whereas FL my exposure to his thought process is a lot more second/third-hand so I am inherently less accurate on FL-guessing than Pine-guessing), whereas scumhunting allows you to actually read the players in question.

For instance, in camn's revenge the original, pick-speculation would've led to a hard-tunnel, game-long, on Nacho. Reading off of play produced the one and only Scummie I have ever won, which also spawned a long-term friendship with Ginngie, which also led to one of the most OP hydras of all time (The Wood Cutters).

In terms of this game for instance: while I can theory-craft reasons for FL to have picked Creature, I actually don't have any ability to guess why FL would pick Bell...and yet, by play, it's pretty damn readily apparent that FL did, leaving me only with guesses as to the why.

[mastina]

Whodunit dun it

Who Dunn it?

[mastina]

oh you leave spaces between your lines now mastina
2016!you didn't bother

I mean.
I use both.

I've always used both double-linebreaks and single-linebreaks. It's just a matter of what I think flows best. And usually, double line breaks tends to, overall, flow better for most situations.

Also there's a certain matter of paragraph length.

If one paragraph is entirely too long, then I might give it a single linebreak if the thoughts are related but there's a good spot for it.
But if one paragraph is too long, even with a single linebreak, then I'll probably break it up further, in spite of it being the same thought.

[mastina]

Didn’t you townread Dunnstral earlier Mastina? Why the change?
- Norwee

Spoiler: Essentially? This:

I realize I need to take stock of my reads and give minor reevaluation to them--given that the game has four scum in it and I have only three players in my scumreads right now, at least one player I am townreading, by necessity,

must

be scum; I'll try to get more into it later. Plan for today is to read content and explain reads as they were, then hopefully later go into the work of reevaluating and reassessing those reads to try and form that coherent scumteam.

Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu
Double The Trouble
Polar Bear Express*
Ydrasse*

This was my last readslist post of D1 with the dead players removed, but as the day so RUDELY ended due to SOMEONE hammering before we were ready, I didn't get to post the

actual

final readslist, which would've moved Solstice up to the conftown tier and also been kinder to Spiffeh, producing this:

Solstice
Dunnstral
Toogaloo
pichu
Double The Trouble
Polar Bear Express*
Ydrasse*

This is, obviously, not possible given there's four scum and only three south of null, so yes, I do need to reevaluate. I won't be able to give a full reevaluation, but to go into the names:

Dunnstral was a top townread of mine because I thought that all of his content radiated an aura of townness. Even if his points weren't something I agreed with, I thought that they came from a town mindset and looked town overall. This is something I probably need to revisit in D2 with too many townreads and not enough scumreads for the setup. My first thought is, this is probably still Dunnstral as town, because overall his play here is a match to what I'd expect from Dunn as town more than scum, but I should also do some meta double-checking on this front. (It'll, unfortunately, be largely secondhand meta where I'd be reading games I didn't play in, so not as reliable, but may still help me on this assessment.)

So, tentative starting point for D2 in a loose readslist:

Dunnstral, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Bell, Ircher (reevaluation needed, this spot probably has 1-2 scum in it)

Dunnstral, Toogeloo, Spiffeh, Bell, Ircher (reevaluation needed, this spot probably has 1-2 scum in it)

For the record:
I can say that the Bell of this game very much looks identical to the Bell of MBOS10, but I admit lack of familiarity with the nuances of him as a player to be able to tell if he is definitively town here.
Spiffeh I feel has been getting townier over the course of the game, but with at minimum one scum absent from my readslist, that healthy paranoia I have on him needs to be addressed because there's a rather significant risk that he is the scumteam's deepwolf. (Plus, on an unrelated note, going into the wifom-hole, if FL's claim of his first draft being the first four names on the playerlist was in any way remotely close to the truth, if Creature is scum, it lends some credence to the idea that Spiffeh could also be scum, with FL having been unable to draft all four due to the other two being picked as town, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, I feel that going down this rabbit hole is a mistake so I basically am writing this off as possible, but not probable.) Overall I'd still rate him as town, but if we have three scum flipped and can't find the fourth after multiple town deaths, it's worth revisiting on him. He's certainly not a priority-sort today imo so even if it's possible he's scum, I kinda want to townbin him anyway for now, to revisit it down the road if needed.

Ircher I feel is probably town here. I admit lack of familiarity with him, and I realize that I do need to acknowledge he does have several bad takes and that effort does not equal town and that his style of posting does have a lot of information in it with the analysis comparatively lackluster, all things that make it possible he's scum, but I also feel that Ircher was not following an FL script, that Ircher's stances and refusal to play ball with Pooky came from an inherently town point of view and that the indignance behind it did radiate a type of townness I don't think Ircher, even with FL, could fake.

So in terms of the names up here with 1-2 scum in them, I'd rate their townness as:

Ircher > Spiffeh (this and above means "not interested in really sorting today") >>>>>> Bell

>

Dunnstral = Toogaloo (Bell either equal or higher than Toog/Dunn, not quite sure which).

DUN Dun dun dun dun dun Dun dun, DUN Dun dun dun dun Dun dun dun.

GUYS THIS MEANS THAT THE SCUM IS DUNNSTRAL
LETS GO GET HIM BOYZ

If MURDERCAT is in fact town?

Actually quite likely! Creature + Bell + Dunn + DEB would be an incredibly likely combo, with the other one being Creature + Bell + Toog + DEB (or Creature + Bell + Spiffeh + DEB but as mentioned I wanna table Spiffeh-scum thoughts until three scum are dead, ideally).

Although I remain unconvinced that MURDERCAT is town.

Basically, Dunnstral isn't so much a scumread as he is a poe pool possible-scumread. He was a townread, but I do need to, carefully, constantly, neverendingly, reassess and reevaluate this stance on him and keep a close eye on his contributions to see what that content is saying towards his alignment. He's still plausibly town, with a narrative that could be town, but I see the case for him being scum off of his Bell defense. He's not lockscum from it, but I need to keep my eye on him.

is creature just always like this in his games now? i actually can't tell if the negativity and pessimism is faked or if this is just Creature

It's faked.

I've played with Creature even post-degradation from his play.

This is it as scum.

[mastina]

@BELL

you got some serious splaining to do.
I'm mad that you are making me sign a death warrant so early in the game, but no you aren't the detective, I am.
I'll give you the benefit for like two seconds if you can explain why you would fake claim detective.
Otherwise, I'm dropping the vote and hopefully the hammer.

So my thought on this is that it's probably a classic FL scum-scum claim where both players claiming the role are scum and neither is town.

But at least this makes the day easier in that it's guaranteed there's a minimum of one scum in DEB and Bell.

[mastina]

You telling me that I would literally take any action at all on N1 as scum after claiming VT? Watchers and Trackers would keep me from ever taking an action after a post 1 VT claim let alone worrying about someone specifically checking I did the kill. Even more so with the fact that we know that scum can multitask.

Yes, I am aware.

I believe Bell's claim of targeting you is a bit dubious, because it is objectively a poor target.

However, I believe it plausible that Bell could make the suboptimal night action target choice. Plausible--not probable. Plausible = action could feasibly happen without it being a remote freak occurrence. Probable = action is quite likely to happen even if it's not guaranteed. Bell's claimed target of you is plausible...but not probable.

Which is to say I think the claim could plausibly come from town; I don't think it actually does come from town. See also: I am voting Bell. I am still voting Bell. I am actively championing for the elimination of Bell. So that while the action is plausible from town, I don't think it actually did come from town.

[mastina]

If Detective is as weak as the claim sounds, having two in town with the exact same modifiers doesn't seem implausible. You have to literally catch the killer that night, right?

Detective can catch someone who has killed, even if they killed on a different night. If a detective checks the scum who made the N1 nightkill and a different scum makes the N2 nightkill, the detective still gets a guilty.

In a Normal, investigatives resolve after the kill, so a Detective should be able to catch the N1 nightkill, but in a theme game this isn't a guaranteed resolution so is worth asking about if you care that much.

(Since I happen to think both claims are probable scum, I'm not as inclined to be thorough in prodding about the detectives.)

[mastina]

They have to catch the person on the night of or the night after the kill. But yeah, it's pretty weak.
~Morning

Not so.

A detective can get a guilty on N5 of a scum who made the N1 nightkill and never made a kill after that.

[mastina]

Why is Dunstral a PoE at this point.

Because there's four scum in the game and on D1 I didn't have enough scumreads for that number of scum and I needed to reassess my townreads--Dunn included.

Most of the townreads were reassessed and I concluded still town. The townreads on you, Toog, and Dunn? Less so.

[mastina]

guys one of these detective claims is fake
see if you can figure out which one

Hot take: both are.

But if only one were--yes, I'd begrudgingly admit that DEB's is more plausible than Bell's.

[mastina]

guys one of these detective claims is fake
see if you can figure out which one

Hot take: both are.

But if only one were--yes, I'd begrudgingly admit that DEB's is more plausible than Bell's.

(It should be noted: While I am dubious of DEB being town here, I'm not advocating for him to be eliminated after Bell. I still think Creature is the best D3 elimination here. And after that, on D4, if DEB is alive, he has three results and from there we can assess further. Explicitly, I think it should be Bell today-->Creature tomorrow. Literally the only way I'd go for DEB tomorrow is if Bell somehow flipped town, which I don't think he will.)

[mastina]

[If Bell is scum and Easy town, what are the odds he fakeclaims Detective and then there's an actual detective? That just seems like it shouldn't happen.]

Which is why my theory is that both are scum doing a counterclaim gambit, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, I don't think DEB should be eliminated D3, maybe not even D4.

[Ignoring any scumreads and just focusing on the claims, they can both be town without issue]
~Morning

Sure, it's possible that, setup-wise, they're both town. I could see two town detectives, one town detective, or no town detective, all as possible in this setup.

I happen to believe that it's most likely 0 or 1, that yes the counterclaim of detective does mean that at least one of the claims is from scum.

And I also happen to believe that, by play, Bell is pretty clearly scum and DEB's possible scum but of a lesser certainty.

[mastina]

pichu do you think bell's wim/ate/walling is out of his scumrange yet?

From my experience with Bell, it's the opposite, with those things being indicators that he's scum here.

this is weird because im starting to like bell :/

Liking a player does not mean that they are town.

A player who is playing in their scum meta, not playing to their town meta, being hyper-defensive, and who even after being 'free' to scumhunt is producing lackluster scumhunting, no matter how much you may like them, is still far more likely to be scum.

hey guys how's the scum catching going?

Given that we have Bell pretty much caught, and Creature pretty much caught, and a very solid townbloc, with a fairly good POE pool?

Pretty damn well!

[mastina]

[Masons, doctor, vig, informed are already on the table. There are only so many power roles that can remain]
~Morning

Eh, depends. The original Titus WIFOM City setup (which wasn't a treestump game) had like 3 VTs in a 22-player game.
Titus vs Alisae had 4 VTs in a 17-player game.
camn's revenge had 3 VTs in a 13-player game.

All of those games represent a low-VT threshold, and thus, a high-PR threshold.

But on the other hand.
Pine vs Alisae had 14 VTs in a 24-player game.
Turn of camn had 6 VTs in a 17-player game.

Both of those represent a higher-VT threshold, and thus, a lower-PR threshold.

Whether the game is VT heavy or PR heavy isn't something that I feel like we can judge on D2 with the few flips/claims we have so far.

[mastina]

[And everyone's gonna make fun of me for this if Bell flips scum, but i

really

don't see what the rush is/was when Bell seems to have the desire to create content for us. That's good if he's scum or town.]
~Morning

I mean sure, but like...I've been reading Bell's posts of 'content'.

They certainly are remarkably unremarkable in containing just about no useable info.

Almost like he's scum and doesn't want to give too much away.

[mastina]

hard-leashing vig to dunn-spiff-noraa for possible shots

would be good if you tell us who out of those 3 are like baddies.

Pookie I don't mean to offend and I realize that you know the masons and have their feedback, but like.

This vig pool is pretty damn atrociously bad?

Noraa this game, aside from MURDERCAT's very very lackluster crusade that largely runs contrary to the facts, is looking pretty town overall here and is a very very low chance of being scum.

Spiffeh this game, aside from paranoia theories of him being the scumteam's deepscum, is pretty overwhelmingly town. Vigging Spiffeh is explicitly hero-vigging, as in a hero-shot that if it landed on scum, sure, would be devastating to the scum...but do you know what the term hero-vigging implies? That most of the shots hit town that would be borderline nightkill-by-scum material. As in, a shot so atrociously bad it could almost be a scum nightkill, made from paranoia of thinking that the player who is probably town is so good as scum that just in the small chance they're scum you should shoot there.

Literally the only name in there which could be scum is Dunnstral--and Dunnstral being scum requires that 2/3 of {MURDERCAT, Dr Easy Bake, Toogeloo} are town. Which, granted. Isn't impossible. In fact is fully plausible. But the vig pool containing two slots that're almost certainly town and one slot which could be scum...isn't exactly a good vig pool.

[mastina]

I'll be super duper frustrated if I start going back to solving rn and find the thread locked.

Going back to solving implies that you ever started in the first place, something I've yet to see.

[mastina]

Coincidentally went to iso Toogeloo and they said the same thing, seems towny

Problem with this viewpoint, Dunn.

So you have Creature as scum--this is fine.

You are saying Bell is town--not inherently a crime.

You obviously know/'know' yourself to be town/'town'.

You're thinking that Toog's stance is townie.

Okay, then.

Where's the rest of the scum?

Creature being scum isn't enough; there'd be three others, and you're townreading two of the by far most likely scum candidates.

Where's the other three scum if you are town and think Bell is town and think Toog is townie?

[mastina]

I'm giving DEB a pass for now though since their claim is believable as well

Again.

Four scum in the game.

You're townreading literally every one of the most likely candidates aside from Creature.

My POE pool, for instance, is, explicitly, {Creature, Bell | Dr Easy Bake, Toogeloo, you}.

With me townreading, in most cases quite strongly, literally every other player in the game.

Creature is scum, sure.

Where's the other 3? Because you're giving a pass to literally all of Bell/DEB/Toogeloo.

I seriously need a break guys.

A break implies there was ever content in the first place that you were delivering.

I've yet to see evidence of any such content. (Granted, still have ~20 pages to read, butstill, if taking a break, that certainly isn't promising.)

[mastina]

Dunny must be third impostor i think
probably town

Gutwise?

I'm actually inclined to agree with this take specifically.

I realize it is very easy for Dunnstral to be genuinely scum, taking largely scum-favoring viewpoints.

But my gut actually is telling me that Dunnstral is just mostly-wrong-town.

[mastina]

[quote="In post 3840, Solstice"i see no drawbacks to waiting at least 1-2 days to see if you actually start to deliver on solving. And if Bell is trolling us it'll be evident by how he doesn't solve]
~Morning[/quote]I'll be holding this to you btw. You posted that on Monday; it's two days later, Wednesday, now.

If Bell hasn't delivered on the solving in that time, then, chances are...he won't. You could maybe be extra-generous and extend it into tomorrow, Thursday, but like...if he doesn't deliver on the solving by then, chances are, he never will.

hard-leashing vig to dunn-spiff-noraa for possible shots

would be good if you tell us who out of those 3 are like baddies.

this is a horrible idea as I think we're all town!
(Dunn less so)

More or less agreed. Dunn's the only name in the three which I think

could

be scum, but gutwise, I happen to think that he's more likely to be town.

[mastina]

Was the Bell v DEB thing resolved?

The only resolution to that would be a Bell AND DEB elimination so...no.

Might I point out that this is Creature's idea of content in this game?

Where he drops in and does...literally nothing, while pretending he is?

There's a damn good reason why if we weren't eliminating Bell today I'd be voting Creature here and it's specifically because of Creature being pretty transparently scum.

[mastina]

I'm not too sure about Toogeloo actually, but Alisae said they think they have been town so i'm going with their read on that for now until i get a better feel on them myself.
- Norwee

Toogeloo being town isn't impossible--
It'd require Bell as scum; it'd require Creature as scum; it'd require 2 of {DEB, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral} to be scum.

But it is something I am rather skeptical of overall.

Granted.

I really don't see why MURDERCAT is getting townread. There is precisely one reason I can think of for MURDERCAT to be town, and unless that one reason is the reason others are townreading him, I legit don't get why people think he is town.

DEB I think is scum with Bell, even if that is a stance I realize is a bit of a hard sell to make.

So with Bell as scum and Creature as scum, if my gut-townread on Dunn is right, there is in fact the chance Toogeloo is town, if both DEB and MURDERCAT are scum.

But that's literally the only way I see Toogeloo as town.

[mastina]

I still don't really get what the fascination with creature is though.

It's called scumhunting; Creature is scum so it's my job to hunt him and pressure him even when voting elsewhere due to hunting elsewhere because there's four scum rather than just one.

You should try it some time*.

(*I am aware MURDERCAT is consistently casing Polar Bear Express as scum. Aside from me disagreeing with the core points of his case, there's also the fact that MURDERCAT doesn't seem to be doing anything aside from the Polar Bear Express case, and my burn here is relating to that lack of diversity in reads and stances backed by reasons. By which, I mean, as far as I can tell, MURDERCAT doesn't have anything resembling a four-man guess for a scumteam. He's pressuring primarily one slot, for reasons that I feel are wrong. Rather than applying pressure in multiple areas with multiple reads.)

[mastina]

I feel like this would be a good point for me to give a better readslist since I realize the last one I gave was a tentative one.

Solstice
pichu
Double the Trouble
MURDERCAT (IF my one and only reason for townreading the slot is correct)
Ircher

Polar Bear Express
Ydrasse

Spiffeh




Dunnstral


Toogeloo

MURDERCAT (IF my one and only reason for townreading the slot is incorrect)

Dr Easy Bake



Bell

Creature


To explain, this is locktown, locktown-but-largely-trusting-in-others, townread, in-poe-but-lean-town, in-poe-but-not-townreading, in-poe-and-scumreading, de facto scum, scumread, strong scumread.

I wasn't sure whether Ircher belonged in locktown or not but I'm trusting my initial gut instinct to put him up there.
I almost put Bell in the same tier as Creature, because both are pretty strong scumreads, but on principle I felt the need to emphasize how strong the Creature scumread is.

[mastina]

Noraa
1 of Bell/DEB
mastina??
Toog??
Dunn??
Something like that probably for me right now

Okay I guess I stand at least partially corrected in regards to my burn on MURDERCAT.

These reads are somewhat dubious, and he doesn't provide reasons for them, but I suppose it's more than one read.

I find it funny that I'm the one getting shit for avoiding acknowledging Bell (which is patently untrue I might add!)

When Creature, the scummiest slot in the game, has been completely absent ever since the heat got off of him

Also Creature is, explicitly, avoiding taking a stance on Bell/DEB.

[mastina]

She's remained active but allowed her reads to ebb and flow with the current game state.

Do explain because I've made my stances pretty damn abundantly clear with zero waffling on them aside from my reads in the poe that aren't harder scumreads. (Which, obviously, are reads that, no fucking shit I'm going to have them ebb and flow off of the current gamestate, because explicitly, they are reads that I waver on and am unsure on so literally any development in the game can sway them to one side or the other. Those being, mostly, you and Dunnstral.)

One mislynch on Day 1 that she headlines, and her town reads are becoming scum reads because she can read the room and see what people want.

Most of my townreads are very much still my townreads.

There are a grand total of three reads of mine that were townreads D1 that on D2 are not: you, Dunnstral, and Bell.

This of course being necessary because there's four scum in the game and I had three scumreads--meaning that I was, inherently, by fundamental nature of the setup, definitively wrong on at least one townread, and unless all three of my scumreads were accurate, probably two. And if 2/3 of my scumreads were wrong, then there could in fact be three wrong townreads that I had on D1.

I reevaluated my reads because I had a very damn good reason to do so, and

most

of my townreads remain as townreads, with only three of them being reevaluated as something other than a townread...

...And even then? Even then, one of those reads is Dunnstral, who I still have an overall right now gut-townread on, where while he's in the POE pool of six where 4/6 of them are scum, he's the towniest of the six that I happen to think is least-likely to be scum.

She is actively lurking and letting the Bell/DEB thing happen.

So...which of my posts are 'actively lurking'? Which of my posts are 'letting' the Bell/DEB thing happen? Because I've made my stance there clear enough.

I feel both players are likely to be scum, with the whole detective-detective thing being scum theater.
I feel that, while both claims could theoretically be town in the setup, that at least one of them is going to be scum, and personally feel the most likely scenario is that both are scum (although I have acknowledged that is a tough sell to make).
I have stated that, by play, I feel like both slots are scum.
I have also said that, push come to shove, if I were forced to trust one claim over another, that Bell's far more likely scum than DEB.
But I've also said that I think both are scum.

I've given reasons for believing Bell to be scum.
I've continued giving reasons for Creature to be scum.
I've explained my reasons for my reads on the players I am townreading pretty extensively as well as going into detail on the reads in the poe pool pretty extensively.
Pretty much the only read I haven't explained is the DEB read, which...well, because it's DEB...there's not much to work with there in terms of explaining because it's DEB.

If that's your definition of 'active lurking', I'd love to see what your definition of being a proactive gamesolver is.

I think Creature should absolutely be the vig shot, maybe Toogeloo should be under consideration too?

Agreed.

A much better vig pool would be {Creature, Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral}, honestly.

With the IC getting to trim it down to three.
(I personally think Dunnstral's more likely to be town than scum overall, but I do understand that, yes, he is still in the poe pool so he wouldn't be a horrible shot. Not the best shot, but not the worst shot, either.)

So you have the burden of convincing me that
1. Noraa is town

The burden of proof is on the accuser (because it's innocent until proven guilty, not vice-versa)--and you've made your accusations with your proof...that multiple players have addressed and at least some have countered. In my case, I went into the details for why I felt your case on Polar Bear Express is wrong.

You conveniently never actually went and addressed this.

You made your case and I explained why I felt it was flawed.
You've not made a second case or an explanation for why your first case wasn't flawed.

This is Noraa's catchup from PAGE 115
How are people town reading this

I don't see anything scum in that catchup. It's not as strong of a catchup as is humanly possible, giving less stances than it could and not addressing literally everything. But this is Noraa we're talking about, a slot whose fundamental playstyle is, innately, one where the strongest catchup humanly possible is innately impossible to achieve. In terms of Noraa making a catchup post, in fact, this is basically almost peak-performance, in being one of the best possible catchup posts for Noraa humanly possible. In that sense, it looks town.

And the burden of proof for showing and demonstrating why it isn't lies on you.

[mastina]

I thought I saw high volume posting from her this Day but maybe not I still have to catch up on the last 20 pages

I would indeed encourage you to check up on Toogeloo's statements.

My iso is pretty damn dense, so I realize it's not necessarily easy to locate, but this was my first post of D2.

So this is my iso from D2 so far.

Judge for yourself if that's 'active lurking' which is 'letting things happen'.

(Hint; my iso for this day phase is almost as long as my iso for last day phase, in less time, and with less players, and with less pages.
Suffice to say: Toog's claim is utter bullshit. )

[mastina]

Thinking it's Toog and mastina

pichu potential powerwolf

I don't understand the townreads on Dunn?

Seriously--why are people townreading this?

Especially people who have played with Creature before, who have familiarity with him.

Why are you townreading this?

Because this level of emptiness and with these sorts of takes is not Creature's town meta.

Do you want me to actually link you town-Creature games and scum-Creature games for comparison? (Admittedly the most recent ones would be largely secondhand meta where I wouldn't be able to really give indepth laser-point-accuracy takes, but just in general, this is so obviously not Creature as town that I am overwhelmingly confident I've no need to be so laser-point-accurate, that just pointing in the general direction will be enough for the hammer to blow the point in.)

[mastina]

Idk I thought the claims were switched or something

Like, for everyone scumreading players for being noncommittal on DEB/Bell.
That aren't scumreading Creature.

Creature's posts are literally as noncommittal as it gets.

He is adamantly refusing to take a stance on DEB/Bell at all.

[mastina]

even under the assumption that one of them is town and the other is scum that means we have 3 other scum to find
~mist

Alternatively, both are scum and there's only 2 other scum to find.

With one being Creature.

And the last being one of {Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral}, with Dunnstral being the least-likely due to him being the most likely to be town.

But if there is 3 other scum to find due to only one of DEB/Bell being scum (I will never cease to be an advocate of it being both, but I'll play ball with entertaining the idea of DEB being town counterclaiming even if I personally feel both are scum), then I'd say it's both Toogeloo and MURDERCAT.

[mastina]

What reads do you have if Creature is town?

IF Creature were town (he's not), then I'd lockscum

both

Bell and DEB and then look heavily into Toogeloo and MURDERCAT in particular, with a possible side of Dunnstral.

The same goes for IF Bell's town (he's not); I'd lockscum Creature and DEB while looking heavily into Toogeloo and MURDERCAT (albeit less Dunnstral in this one).

I genuinely feel like there is a POE pool of six that, very likely, contains all four scum, with a very high chance:

{Dunnstral, Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dr Easy Bake, Bell, Creature}.

Individually, Dunnstral looks the towniest of them.

Individually, Creature looks the scummiest of them.
Individually, Bell looks the second-scummiest of them.
Individually, DEB is DEB and someone that FL could always count on as scum due to DEB and FL being intimately familiar with one another so DEB as town represents a threat to FL whereas DEB as scum is his greatest asset and off of DEB's contributions so far it looks a lot more like he's FL's asset than he is a threat to FL so I think there's a high chance he's scum.

Individually, MURDERCAT's reads and stances the whole game have looked like scum to me and there's literally only one scenario that would make me think otherwise. He's a lower-priority sort for me, however, specifically because given more time, that one scenario will either become debunked or confirmed. If it is debunked, then he's a high priority for being eliminated as an incredibly likely scum candidate; if it is confirmed, then he is someone we'll never eliminate due to him being town. I personally feel that the one scenario for him being town isn't the most likely, but time will tell there.

Individually, Toogeloo's highly null. He's not someone I'm scumreading, but overall, his stances and takes are no longer resonating with me as being town. He's not a high-priority sort because there's four names that I feel are more likely scum than him, with one of them being a low-priority sort, but if MURDERCAT's one scenario of being town is true, then Toogeloo is very highly likely to be scum.

Individually, I do loosely feel like Dunnstral is town, weakly so here, but that is the read that this day phase has been most in flux, and if too many of the names above are town, then by necessity he would need to be scum. But I do genuinely feel that the only way he is scum is if literally two of the above names flip town--which makes him a lower-priority sort, as we should flip names above him before considering eliminating him.

One name flipping town from the above doesn't change this solve.
Two names flipping town from the above still doesn't change the solve.
It'd literally take three of the above names being definitively town for me to consider a different solve right now because I am that confident that these six names contain the solve, pretty conclusively so.

[mastina]

i think his posting this phase has been significantly better than d1 that's for sure.

You're gonna need to explain to me what Creature posts those are that're better because today is, by and large, the same as yesterday if not

worse

.

ah Murder is scum

Not guaranteed, but with a reasonably high probability? Yes.

[mastina]

do you see anything that is shown in the setup twice cuz I sure as hell don't!

Oh they exist, I literally reviewed a double-doc game, but they're notably rare. I've seen them before. Double doctors beyond the one I reviewed; double trackers happened at least once; double millers has definitely happened; double neighborhoods (as in, two separate neighborhoods of two where all four were town); etc. They exist, they're just rare.

I've normally not been really quoting Ircher posts with points unless I felt a need to argue with them, but I feel particularly compelled to make a positive reaffirmation here, in that:

This feels very townie. Not sure if it will matter though.

I disagree. Bell's actions post-claim do not seem to be in accordance with what Bell wrote. As they say, "actions speak louder than words." If Bell puts those words in action, maybe I will reconsider.

I agree with this wholeheartedly.
Bell has not put those words into action thusfar.

Oksy, here is the actual CC post from DEB. The fact that DEB is giving the benefit of the doubt here is very +town equity for their slot. Scum!DEB benefits very little from such a move (as he's a goner regardless.)

I do have to disagree with this, though. If you assume that Bell is scum and look at DEB giving the benefit of the doubt, it increases the odds that DEB is scum with the whole thing being scum theater where both claims come from scum. I'd therefore say that DEB giving the benefit of the doubt is, overall, null, where you can see the action as town or scum in equal amounts.

It's probably town-equity if Bell is town since town willing to consider the original claim as town is more likely than scum counterclaiming a doomed slot only to then give benefit of the doubt, but if Bell is scum I give no such town equity to DEB.

So my thought on this is that it's probably a classic FL scum-scum claim where both players claiming the role are scum and neither is town.

I think the one hole is that the other has to explain why they are still alive. That doesn't sound like an easy task to me.

I don't see why not.

If only one scum makes the nightkill the entire game, there's only one guilty and a bunch of innocents/false innocents.

A detective not getting a guilty poses no threat to the scum.

And if both detective claims are scum, then they have no reason to claim a guilty, so they can claim innocent results the entire game.

Plus, a detective's innocent isn't a game-long clear, so stacking innocents does no good. If the detective got innocents on eight players before the detective died, those eight innocents don't become conftown. No detective innocent is actually an innocent, not unless all four scum have made a kill (something that we, the town, have no way of knowing).

And you were keeping your reads close earlier as if you had something special, then came out with the most generic copy pasted reads possible

A reasonably good point.

Can u post a reads list Bell?

What do you think I'm doing rn?

Actions speak louder than words.

Yes, actions speak louder than words.
You're saying you're making a readslist; you're not showing a readslist.

[mastina]

I'm going to bed now.

Going to bed sure doesn't seem like making a readslist to me!

like I don't think bell would even care that much about living if he was a red role pm.

I do.

This is a game where, if Bell is scum, he was hand-picked by Flavor Leaf.

That, inherently, means that Bell would have not one but two reasons to not give up.
1: Unless Bell raged at the FL and said "RECRUITING ME WAS A MISTAKE!!!", unless Bell did that specific thing upon drawing scum, Bell has no reason to give up. To the contrary, being picked by FL would be an honor to him and it'd give him incentive to live up to what FL sees in him--meaning that instead of rolling over to die, he'd have some fight.

2: FL is remarkably adept at AtE. It's one of his greatest skills. He is, very easily, capable of coaching Bell into this sort of a reaction, and can even build a plan around it.

and I don't think changing jobs can change someone's enthusiasm for playing a certain alignment.

Like Bell haaaates playing scum.

I don't see Bell as enthusiastic here at all.
I believe he does hate scum;
I believe his shown play this game indicates he hates his role this game, which is scum.

Bell's produced AtE.
Bell's AtE is not enthusiastic; Bell's AtE does not display a love for having drawn town. It shows survivalism. Survivalism isn't enthusiasm at being town. Survivalism is something which, from literally any player on FL's team, is to be expected.

[mastina]

I'm done AtEing, I'm just out of stamina. I'm lying of course. But there's a limit even for town me.

Was being done with AtE a lie?
Was being out of stamina a lie?
Was saying there's a limit for your town self a lie?

Because, well.

You're still making excuses for not scumhunting.

Still not making a promised readslist.

Still spending time defending yourself instead of scumhunting.

He won't even let me solve because his head is stuck so far up his ass that he can't even read a full paragraph all the way through before linking it.

This is yet another excuse to not solve and instead spend time doing nothing.

[mastina]

he cant ate this hard when he's scum right?

Your soulmason pichu says he can.

Do you trust your soulmason's assessment?

[mastina]

Noraa, when you're town. Can you even focus when people are calling you scum all the time.
How many of us actually can.

*raises hand*
I can, and do.

When I am pressured by people calling me scum, I'll scumhunt less, that's true enough.

I don't stop scumhunting altogether.

I don't go from scumhunting into exclusively defending myself without any reads or reasons for them.
I continue to give reads and reasons, albeit less than I would be if I wasn't giving attention to my defense.

The reads don't stop; they slow down.

So yes.

I am, inherently.

Skeptical of claims that reads stop altogether when you're being pressured.
Reads reduced? I can believe.
Reads absent altogether? A much tougher sell.

This is by the way after I've been totally drained and exhausted the last 3 or 4 days. I basically realized I had no gas left in my tank when I realized I forgot my phone when I went to the first aid place and called my grandma by accident on the owners' phone instead of my Dad lol. I hadn't eaten breakfast. then spent 4 hours going there. and who knows how long I was stressing over this game.

For someone being so out of gas you sure seem to be spending a lot of time posting here and using that time to defend yourself rather than either not posting to recover or using those presumed fumes to scumhunt.

[mastina]

@Alisae - who's your favorite League character?

Ashe is my bae in personality, abilities, playstyle, and everything.

There's a damn good reason I'm a onetrick of her, and that's just because her everything resonates with me.

That said, the other champions I play I also quite like. (Kindred, Samira, Caitlyn, and Miss Fortune. MF's one of the poster women for League used in cinema animations, games, etc. and for good reason; her kit is fairly simple and intuitive. Caitlyn's cool and levelheaded but a bit quirky, with a kit that's a bit harder to master particularly her net/trap mechanics but you can still play her well just with her autoattacks thanks to range dominance. Kindred I admit I love their lore as Spirit Blossoms mostly in spite of me not owning that skin, and their mechanics aren't exactly easy to master, but their toolkit is one useful for someone like me. Samira I honestly don't really know the indepth lore/personality/character of but she's a badass and her toolkit resonates with me almost as much as Ashe's does. Objectively I feel like Senna's kit is similar enough to Ashe's where I should enjoy her, but for whatever reason, she doesn't resonate with me whereas Samira does.)

[mastina]

I looked through the mininormal list btw.
The closest I found was Mason, mason, town back up mason.

[It's almost like that's how mason works. is the joke flying over my head? dammit]

Oh that reminds me, pretty sure I did design a Normal that had two, separate, two-man masonries at some point. Obviously wouldn't be the case here tho.

[mastina]

I made a case for elimming scum that no one seems to care about.

Because people read the case you made on Polar Bear Express, found it flawed, explained why they found it flawed, and then you pretended like they hadn't done so?

[mastina]

What do you think I'm doing rn?

Honest answer: I think you're randomly quoting posts to look busy.

[Is there a point you're trying to make with that quote tower, Bell?]

This precisely. Bell complained about my posts being IIoA, but what Bell is doing now seems to fall under that category as well.

Do you think I'm just randomly quoting walls of brief mentions of NK15 in this huge game.

To an extent, yes, that's precisely what it seems you are doing.

This, so, so much this.

[mastina]

I still don't really understand what the plan would be for scum though when DEB continues to not die. But maybe he is being intentionally not at all useful so as to be able to make the argument he isn't dead for that reason (which would likely be made through other scum players)?

Pretty much, yeah.

I'm willing to give you a significant amount of leeway here even though you're basically poaching from my theory of it being scum-scum.

(That is to say. If DEB and Bell are indeed scum-scum as I believe. I don't think you're scum, here. And the reevaluation from you does seem genuine and sincere. So even if only one is scum, there's a reasonably decent chance you're town; both as scum guarantees you as town to me.)

[mastina]

I think they are scum together. FL sensed Bell was going down and tried to get some town cred for DEB out of it.
When DEB doesn't die, you have another scum say "why kill DEB he's useless, detective isn't that strong."
Mechwise, that is the simplest explanation to me.

It is also what I've been saying since the moment DEB counterclaimed.

Butyeah, I think there's a pretty damn good chance you're town now.

I still believe you're wrong about Polar Bear Express being scum, but I think you're probably town now.

[mastina]

Yup, I woke up at 3:40PM today. This is fine.

I mean this is me every day of quarantine pretty much nonstop. 3:40ish pm every day.

Especially right now due to lingering sickness. I can hope it's gone now but I don't know it is.

[mastina]

wow mastina I didn't realize the only thing I had to do to get you to town read me was to stop trying

I mean.
"Stop trying to look town and just be town".
Is advice that actually goes a long way for improving townplay when town.

You stopped trying to look town and just

are

town now, so.

Didn't BM do like the same thing.

Yes--and I scumread him for it for good reason. It was an erroneous scumread, but that doesn't mean the reasoning is innately inherently fundamentally flawed. No scumtell is 100% accurate; most scumtells that are actual tells are in the range of ~60-70%. Where town will still be guilty of it 30-40% of the time, and with personality traits can be guilty of it more often, but scum will still be the ones guilty of it the majority of the time, 60-70% of the time, potentially higher by their personality.

When scum are pressured, they tend to get defensive, overly so, and use this pressure on them as an excuse/justification for having not produced content.
When town are pressured, they can get defensive, sometimes even overly so, and under this pressure there is going to be reduced content, and sometimes even no content--but more common is that they still are giving reads and reasons because they are trying to leave an influence in the game even if they are mislynched. To leave a legacy that players can use when they are flipped as town.

It's a fundamental psychology thing that I believe is innately inherent to the alignments. As scum under pressure, you've incentive to not fake scumhunting (because faking scumhunting can give the town more info after you flip) and have incentive to defend yourself (to prevent yourself from flipping). As town under pressure, you've incentive to scumhunt (to leave a legacy if you're unsuccessful in defending yourself) as well as incentive to defend yourself (to prevent yourself from flipping).

So, defending oneself is not inherently alignment-indicative.
Defending oneself with no scumhunting IS; it's a scumtell. Not lockscum, because town can do it (Battle Mage in this game is proof of that), but it is still something more likely to come from scum than come from town.

And you're doing what Battle Mage did...only upped to eleven, even more defensive and with less contributions than what he gave. Your promises are even more empty than his were.

[mastina]

like Creature is definitely LHF town-town - literally everybody wants him dead.

Creature is not low-hanging fruit.

Creature in fact is notably almost never called low-hanging fruit in his towngames...but very frequently is called low-hanging fruit in his scumgames.

And not everyone wants him dead; he has a fair number of defenders and resistance. The pushers of him also, by and large, aren't committing to pushing him and aren't really pushing him hard.

Most of the townbloc is calling him scum, sure.

But that's because the townbloc has, more or less, narrowed in on an almost complete, coherent solve.

I can buy that Creature is being soft-bussed, heck, if Toogaloo is scum which he probably is then that'd be proof of it right then and there, but Creature's not town because of being a player everyone wants dead.

Can you please explain Creature to me? I don’t understand why he is caught?

Have you played with Creature before?

Creature as town, even in his degraded state, usually has fairly solid takes, fairly solid logic, reasonable grasp on the gamestate and a good amount of reasonable reads. He still fluff posts a fair amount and may complain some, but largely is still going to be business in being able to give a bunch.

Creature, as scum, in his current state, doesn't give solid takes, avoids giving much in the way of logic, pretends to (or maybe genuinely does) have a poor grasp on the gamestate, is lackluster in the reads department, complains a lot more, and gives virtually nothing.

The former is nothing like his play in this game; the latter fits his play this game to a T.

He is literally the definition of scum that is openwolfing right now. He's not even pretending to be in his town meta.

[mastina]

So I read Double the Trouble's opening post--MURDERCAT being a mason I figured out yesterday because Pooky put Polar Bear Express into the vig pool, something that felt like it had to come from MURDERCAT and combined that with Pooky never putting MURDERCAT in either the D1 pool or the D2 pool. So not surprised at that. Am a little surprised at Creature, but I suppose that's one of the best players to be a mason since it, inherently, requires a fundamental reevaluation.

Putting out a tentative:
VOTE: Toogeloo, would also vote DEB here.

The only way my readslist from yesterday isn't obsolete is if the scumteam happens to exactly be {Toogeloo, Dr Easy Bake, Dunnstral}; in all other scenarios, once more do need to reevaluate things.

That having been said, while I read that daystart post, I want to finish addressing things from yesterday I didn't get the chance to talk about. (I was on page 174.)
So will be going back to there and addressing some unfinished business stuff.

[mastina]

you know too many people in this game feel towny now
i think like 2 scum are playing very well probably

This is true enough; there are enough reasons to townread most players in the game, and if townreading all of them, you come up short in names to have for scum. So some scum, no matter what, are playing well enough to be townread.

When it comes to a D3 reassessment with Creature as a total read reversal and MURDERCAT going from possible-mason-that-looks-town to conftown, I do want to theorycraft there for trying to assess things in detail in terms of getting a coherent D3 readslist, buuuuuuut, I'm not sure the masons want me to before my place in the massclaim since that's the spot they want me to have my readslist in (and doing a theorycraft of revisiting/revising things does indeed mean that I'd be more or less making a readslist before my turn in the massclaim).

Mentally, I feel, similar to D1-->D2, that most of my townreads are still valid; I feel like most of those reads should stay the same. Mentally, there's only a small list of the townreads I feel I need to revisit and reevaluate, but again, not sure I'm allowed to outline my mental thoughts inthread yet.

Basically, though, without naming names: I still feel most of the more active town players are town. Maybe not all of them, but I still feel like most of the scum were in the more lurkery slots. But yes, there's at least a fair chance of at least one scum being in the more active slots.

[mastina]

I really don't see why MURDERCAT is getting townread. There is precisely one reason I can think of for MURDERCAT to be town, and unless that one reason is the reason others are townreading him, I legit don't get why people think he is town.

I don't believe that you are having this thought process but not having it lead to it's natural conclusion in regards to the overall game state.

I, unlike Bell, was not mason-hunting. It took a lot for me to think it was so much as

possible

for you to be a mason. You not being included by Pooky D1 in spite of multiple slots' insisting on it wasn't enough, but you being the only slot advocating for Polar Bear Express being scum and PBE ending up in Pooky's vig pool when you didn't despite the insistence of others that you'd be a good candidate, is what made me think it was possible--but I wasn't sure of it. It was something that I saw as possible, but not probable.

And it was something that, to my knowledge, was a possibility I, and only I, thought of at the time. I didn't think anyone else was townreading you by thinking you were a mason, so I was confused as to why people were townreading you. If they weren't townreading you on the possibility (possibility, not guarantee) of you being a mason, then what

were

they townreading you for?

I remained unconvinced you were a mason, and I thought that if you weren't a mason, if the convenient chain of coincidences was just coincidences, that there was a significant chance you were scum. I wasn't seeing reasons for you to be town and had good reasons to suspect you, with the one and only reason to townread you, at the time, being that the string of coincidences was possibly answered by you being a mason. A reason unique to me, as far as I knew, and thus something that I was wondering about; I wanted to know why people were townreading you because as far as I could tell, they weren't treating you like a mason so they had to have seen something in you that looked town.

Later into the day, in the final phases of the day, I saw reasons for you to be town regardless. As in, it didn't matter if you were a mason or if you weren't a mason, I was townreading you regardless and no longer cared. I, unfortunately, didn't get a chance to flesh this out and express it properly and thoroughly since Bell self-hammered before I had the chance to. (It seems to be a recurring theme of the days that the day ends while I am in the middle of a catchup and trying to gather my thoughts and explain them in a gathered coherent fashion.) You can see the evidence of this viewpoint I feel clearly enough as I did get to express the townread on you for you having the same organic thought process I did in regards to Bell-DEB being scum-scum, but I admit that to some extent there is an element of needing to take my word for it.

Pooky has more info than us so why are you not following his lead?

Having more information does not guarantee accuracy in scumreads. It means that the poe is better by knowing more town than the rest of the town, but having a smaller poe doesn't innately guarantee that the poe is actually on-point.

I am not going to blindly follow an IC that I feel is on the wrong path, especially since that's the strategy that I felt that FL was employing, of letting the scum just blindly sheep the IC's stances without a need to strongly disagree with them (thus part of the reason I townread Ircher and to a lesser extent, Spiffeh). I am also not going to outright refuse to follow the IC though, either, because I acknowledge the IC's extra information

does

give them the edge.

The best strategy is to take a middle ground: be willing to follow the IC, but offer constructive criticism, give feedback, try to explain where I think the IC is wrong, and offer alternatives from my own reads/reasons. The IC doesn't need to take any of my advice especially if he knows it to be wrong, but I feel that providing that advice/feedback is the correct play.

You are not being subtle

Oh I'm remarkably unsubtle, but that's my whole brand; I relish in cheeky fuckery where I refuge in audacity with a blatant lack of subtlety...and then rely on people not believing me/not paying attention to me.

I've literally claimed mason in like my last five mason-role games only to be utterly disbelieved each time with it written off as a joke because surely the utter lack of subtlety means it's faked, right?

Except, no, it's not, it's exactly what it seems like.

I was never going to outright call you a mason (especially since I wasn't sure), but I didn't feel like hiding my thought of the possibility was productive, so. It was what it was.

[mastina]

Did you read my post to you?

I was catching up chronologically, so no. I didn't get a chance to read it until just now. (Well, I could've read it during the night, but I didn't feel like typing up thoughts with the cumbersome PM function, especially not when there was a very real chance of me being the nightkill. I thought that I'd probably live and that it'd be unlikely for me to be nightkill, but there was at least the

chance

that, particularly if my Bell-and-DEB-are-both-scum theory is correct, that I'd be nightkilled specifically to prevent me from expanding upon it on D3. By my mental math, there was like a 25% chance of me being the nightkill and if it was me then putting in that effort would've been a waste, so I decided to wait. Also, I thought that daystart for D3 was on either Saturday or Sunday, actually. I was checking today to see how much time was left on deadline to see which of those days it was, and was confused to see that day had started already. Whoops!)

Ah well.

[mastina]

spirit blossom is SO fucking gorgeous, every skin that came out then owns. spirit blossom ahri is one of my favorite splashes in the whole game

Eh, some skins from there didn't really resonate with me, but overall, do agree, the skin line there is amazing.

I quite liked the Kindred and Vayne stories in particular. (I liked the flirting with Vayne which caused her to go all Tsundere.)

But I do agree on Ahri being awesome; she was my third S+ after Kindred and Vayne. (I'm a free to play player so I don't shell out the money for an extra two S+s. I'd be tempted if I could get all of them to S+s with paying, but increasing from 3 to half? Not worth. Especially since 3 was precisely the amount I wanted to get.)

[mastina]

I think the way he talked to Dunn was very much not partnered, and think Ircher also looks pretty good off of interactions
~mist

This is not a take I agree with but again, not sure I should elaborate on why yet.

Let's do mass claim and reads from everyone first please

Reads are somewhat slightly stilted by being in my head right now by and large because me posting my reads is literally how I flesh them out and expand on them and refine on them. (I can kinda sorta refine them in my head, but it's hard, messy, unreliable, and raw, remaining unrefined. I won't be able to give a true proper D3 readslist until after having made the initial one, airing it out, properly thinking about it, etc. Which again, not sure I'm allowed to do right now, I may be skirting the line of what the masons want already off of what I've done thusfar.)

[mastina]

mastina if u read the post you would have known that I don't want people voting right now

Okay so I missed the part about not voting since when I said I read it, I more meant "I skimmed it, decided to log in after getting the gist of the important parts, and decided to log in, do the catchup, so that I could engage in more real time".

[mastina]

I was trying to signal to you that you were right I was a mason and you should apply the same logic to creature

Oh.

Mastina is indeed town as they were crumbing that they suspected MC to be mason, yet MC didn't die tonight. Which seems an unlikely decision if Mastina was in the scum team.
- Norwee

Devil's advocate: I wouldn't necessarily encourage a mason-shot, and even if I did, I could be overriden by FL.

My reads haven't changed to much after yesterday. Noraa and mastina are my top two scum reads.

Ircher, ydrasse, and Dunn are all varying degrees of null.
I liked Spiffeh day 1, it didn't really drop on day 2. Murder and Double Trouble were town reads through Day 1 and 2, and I'm glad they are Mason's. I've added Solstice to my heavy town lean.

DEBs read is currently the most fenced.

I'll reclaim VT ahead of the people complaining that I get to go last just so we get it out of the way and they can't complain anymore.

Toogeloo claimed and gave reads out of order, must be lockscum.

Yes.

vt

That makes it my turn.

VT.

As far as reads go, lemme just post this quickly so that the reads are in a separate post that's easier to read and find, but basic cliffnotes:
I cannot in good faith betray the trust of pichu and thus feel obligated to sheep pichu on Ydrasse/PBE being town, and overall I still feel Solstice is town, so the pool I am looking at is {Spiffeh, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake, Toogeloo} but I wanna extrapolate on that in a separate post dedicated to the reads, lemme post that and then give me like...half an hour or so to write it up.

[mastina]

Alive Players:

[/color]
Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
Ydrasse
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet)
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral
Ircher

With the masons alive, this is the players left to sort.

There's three scum left, so it is appropriate to reevaluate townreads, but...

I really really really want to sheep pichu in his faith in Ydrasse and Polar Bear Express. As I seem to recall, those two slots were among his top townreads and I really really want to trust him on them. So I really want to have faith that pichu was correct, and write them off as town.

Ircher I have felt has been pretty town the entire game long. His handling of everything, as well as his stances, have felt like they came from town. He's been reasonable, rational, and overall felt like he was coming from a town mindset and not playing to FL's gameplan. While I realize that there could be deepscum, I just don't think it's him.

Solstice actually looks far better overall to me today in my opinion. I've really loved Morning Tweet's contributions and feel that MT's assessment of the claims yesterday was highly highly town. Misty's lowered presence is a bit concerning, but she's looked town while around and overall the slot has been acting in a way that I don't think scum act in this game.

Which leaves:
Spiffeh
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral

4 names for 3 scum.

I think there's no world in which Toogeloo is town--he is pretty much lockscum here.

Dunnstral could be town or scum here, but his status is pretty much dependent on the other two, which bring to mind the following questions:

Do the scum have a deepscum player who was fairly active?

If the answer to this is yes, then Spiffeh is scum, because he's the only player among the four to meet that criteria. He's been active and reasonably town, but very easily could be scum. But there's quite possibly the chance of 'no'--in which case, all of the scum were in the lurkers and Spiffeh is town. If Spiffeh is town, then Dunnstral is scum and DEB is scum, but if he's scum, then one of them is town.

I personally would feel guilty eliminating Spiffeh today regardless of his alignment. If he's scum I kinda want to pay him the respect of leaving him until there's three scum dead. And if he is town, I feel I owe that to him to help give him the time to prove that he is town by helping the town eliminate scum. But this is one of the main questions I need to figure out an answer for; if Spiffeh is the scum's deepscum, or if the scum didn't have any deepscum.

Did the scum plan a double-detective claim?

If the answer to this is yes, then Dr Easy Bake is scum. But there is at least the chance that this is a 'no'--in which case, if he is town, then Spiffeh and Dunnstral are both scum. I can see the case either way here, but since DEB is claiming he has a spicy result, he might be town here.

It should be noted; for Dunnstral to be town, it requires the scum to have an active deepscum (Spiffeh)

and

for scum to have planned a double-detective claim (DEB).

At daystart, I was thinking Toogeloo-DEB-Dunn with a chance of Spiffeh, but while my thoughts are still not fully formed yet, I can't really properly form full thoughts right now (I took a nap while I was waiting to wake up in the hopes that it would kickstart my brain but my brain is still in 'waking up' mode right now so I'm not fully firing on all cylinders), but right now I actually lean towards Spiffeh-Dunnstral-Toogeloo.

I do feel the need to reiterate; no matter what, I think Toogeloo is scum here. I don't think that the scumteam is ever Spiffeh-Dunnstral-DEB here.
Which is why I feel like my vote there is the best overall.

I also think that, while Dunnstral has done a fair amount to look town, there is a certain level of resonance in him being scum--I can explain my scumread on Toogeloo quite well, but on Dunnstral while the thoughts don't form as easily it just resonates on a gut level as being overall something that I see.

Similarly, DEB being town is something I've no evidence for, just gut. I am still concerned about the possibility that he's scum with the whole stunt being a double-fakeclaim, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, if we do eliminate two scum, then DEB will produce innocents--if he is a real detective, FL will literally be forced to kill him or else risk generating hard-clears. If he isn't a real detective, that'll become more obvious with time. So he shouldn't be the elimination yet, maybe ever.

Spiffeh is someone who I can't really sort as town or scum conclusively right now, but if my assumptions on who are town is correct, then he'd by necessity be the third scum.

So overall, right now my preferred elimination order would be: Toogeloo > Dunnstral > Spiffeh > Dr Easy Bake.

[mastina]

Yes.

vt

That makes it my turn.

VT.

As far as reads go, lemme just post this quickly so that the reads are in a separate post that's easier to read and find, but basic cliffnotes:
I cannot in good faith betray the trust of pichu and thus feel obligated to sheep pichu on Ydrasse/PBE being town, and overall I still feel Solstice is town, so the pool I am looking at is {Spiffeh, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake, Toogeloo} but I wanna extrapolate on that in a separate post dedicated to the reads, lemme post that and then give me like...half an hour or so to write it up.

Alive Players:

Spiffeh
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary)
Ydrasse
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet)
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral
Ircher

With the masons alive, this is the players left to sort.

There's three scum left, so it is appropriate to reevaluate townreads, but...

I really really really want to sheep pichu in his faith in Ydrasse and Polar Bear Express. As I seem to recall, those two slots were among his top townreads and I really really want to trust him on them. So I really want to have faith that pichu was correct, and write them off as town.

Ircher I have felt has been pretty town the entire game long. His handling of everything, as well as his stances, have felt like they came from town. He's been reasonable, rational, and overall felt like he was coming from a town mindset and not playing to FL's gameplan. While I realize that there could be deepscum, I just don't think it's him.

Solstice actually looks far better overall to me today in my opinion. I've really loved Morning Tweet's contributions and feel that MT's assessment of the claims yesterday was highly highly town. Misty's lowered presence is a bit concerning, but she's looked town while around and overall the slot has been acting in a way that I don't think scum act in this game.

Which leaves:
Spiffeh
Toogeloo
Dr Easy Bake
Dunnstral

4 names for 3 scum.

I think there's no world in which Toogeloo is town--he is pretty much lockscum here.

Dunnstral could be town or scum here, but his status is pretty much dependent on the other two, which bring to mind the following questions:

Do the scum have a deepscum player who was fairly active?

If the answer to this is yes, then Spiffeh is scum, because he's the only player among the four to meet that criteria. He's been active and reasonably town, but very easily could be scum. But there's quite possibly the chance of 'no'--in which case, all of the scum were in the lurkers and Spiffeh is town. If Spiffeh is town, then Dunnstral is scum and DEB is scum, but if he's scum, then one of them is town.

I personally would feel guilty eliminating Spiffeh today regardless of his alignment. If he's scum I kinda want to pay him the respect of leaving him until there's three scum dead. And if he is town, I feel I owe that to him to help give him the time to prove that he is town by helping the town eliminate scum. But this is one of the main questions I need to figure out an answer for; if Spiffeh is the scum's deepscum, or if the scum didn't have any deepscum.

Did the scum plan a double-detective claim?

If the answer to this is yes, then Dr Easy Bake is scum. But there is at least the chance that this is a 'no'--in which case, if he is town, then Spiffeh and Dunnstral are both scum. I can see the case either way here, but since DEB is claiming he has a spicy result, he might be town here.

It should be noted; for Dunnstral to be town, it requires the scum to have an active deepscum (Spiffeh)

and

for scum to have planned a double-detective claim (DEB).

At daystart, I was thinking Toogeloo-DEB-Dunn with a chance of Spiffeh, but while my thoughts are still not fully formed yet, I can't really properly form full thoughts right now (I took a nap while I was waiting to wake up in the hopes that it would kickstart my brain but my brain is still in 'waking up' mode right now so I'm not fully firing on all cylinders), but right now I actually lean towards Spiffeh-Dunnstral-Toogeloo.

I do feel the need to reiterate; no matter what, I think Toogeloo is scum here. I don't think that the scumteam is ever Spiffeh-Dunnstral-DEB here.
Which is why I feel like my vote there is the best overall.

I also think that, while Dunnstral has done a fair amount to look town, there is a certain level of resonance in him being scum--I can explain my scumread on Toogeloo quite well, but on Dunnstral while the thoughts don't form as easily it just resonates on a gut level as being overall something that I see.

Similarly, DEB being town is something I've no evidence for, just gut. I am still concerned about the possibility that he's scum with the whole stunt being a double-fakeclaim, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, if we do eliminate two scum, then DEB will produce innocents--if he is a real detective, FL will literally be forced to kill him or else risk generating hard-clears. If he isn't a real detective, that'll become more obvious with time. So he shouldn't be the elimination yet, maybe ever.

Spiffeh is someone who I can't really sort as town or scum conclusively right now, but if my assumptions on who are town is correct, then he'd by necessity be the third scum.

So overall, right now my preferred elimination order would be: Toogeloo > Dunnstral > Spiffeh > Dr Easy Bake.

Forgot a technical readslist:

Double the Trouble
MURDERCAT
Creature

Polar Bear Express
Ydrasse

Ircher
Solstice



DEB

Spiffeh

Dunnstral

Toogeloo

[mastina]

It's delusional for you to think I didn't plan for a bus this game, though. I bus every game I'm scum with Mastina in it.

Okay, but like:

Spiffeh

(1): Dunnstral

This is the only possible earliest-stage bus.

Dunnstral

(2): pichu, Ydrasse

Ircher

(2): Netflix and Chill, Spiffeh

This is the next possible bus point, Ydrasse bussing Dunnstral or Spiffeh bussing Ircher. (Or Dunn on PBE, missed that.)

Polar Bear Express

(3): mastina, Dunnstral, Creature

Dunnstral

(1): Ydrasse

Solstice

(1): Spiffeh

This is the next one, with Dunn still on PBE, or Ydrasse still on Dunn, or Spiffeh on Solstice.

So far, the only one of these that looks like it would be a serious bus would be if Dunnstral bussed PBE, which I don't think he was. Otherwise, these wagons don't do much.

Polar Bear Express

(2): Creature, Toogeloo

Dr Easy Bake

(2): Dunnstral, Bell

Solstice

(1): Spiffeh

Ydrasse

(1): Ircher

This is the next possible bus point. Dunn hopped off of PBE but Toogeloo hopped on--replacing the Dunn-bussing possibility with the Toog-bussing possibility. However, more likely than either is that one scum went on when the other went off and that the wagon is on town.
DEB could very well be a bus here, with Dunn and Bell both there tho, that I'll acknowledge.

Ircher

(6): Solstice, Netflix and Chill, MURDERCAT, Bell, Polar Bear Express, Toogeloo

Solstice

(1): Spiffeh

Ydrasse

(1): Ircher

This is the next possible bus point, with Ircher as scum, with one scum confirmed on the wagon (Bell) and any number of possible others--Solstice/PBE/Toogeloo. But overall, it looks more likely that Ircher is town here.

Ircher

(6): Solstice, Netflix and Chill, MURDERCAT, Bell, Polar Bear Express, Dr Easy Bake

This is the next possible point of bussing, if Ircher is scum, replacing Toogeloo with DEB.

Solstice

(6): Dunnstral, pichu, Double the Trouble, Not Known 15, Netflix and Chill, Spiffeh

Ircher

(3): Bell, Dr Easy Bake, Solstice

This is the next possible point of scum bussing, if at least one of Dunn/Spiffeh is scum and Solstice is also scum. But this looks more like scum taking advantage of a flashwagon on town.

Polar Bear Express

(2): MURDERCAT, Toogeloo

Bell

(2): Ircher, Double the Trouble

Spiffeh

(1): Bell

This is the first possible point of bussing, and at this stage, sure, probably is some! But if given the choice between "Toogeloo bussed PBE", "Ircher bussed Bell", and "Bell bussed Spiffeh", the last by far looks more likely than the other two.

Bell

(5): Ircher, Double the Trouble, pichu, Solstice, Ydrasse

By this point, Ydrasse and Solstice are possible scum bussing, but the wagon still felt pure at this point.

Bell

(6): Ircher, pichu, Solstice, Ydrasse, mastina, Toogeloo

Gee, I wonder who the scum bussing Bell here would be???

Bell

(7): Ircher, pichu, Ydrasse, mastina, Polar Bear Express, Dr Easy Bake, Double the Trouble

And here it is possible DEB is scum bussing, I admit that. Due to the whole double-detective claim, and all that. (PBE is possible, but less likely.)

Bell

(8): Ircher, pichu, Ydrasse, mastina, Dr Easy Bake, Solstice, Polar Bear Express, Bell

Dr Easy Bake

(1): Dunnstral, MURDERCAT

Well, hey, scum bussed scum for sure as Bell voted Bell.
Otherwise, only scum bussing possible is Dunn bussing DEB (possible I admit), or PBE/Solstice/Ydrasse/Ircher bussing Bell (doubtful), or DEB bussing Bell (possible I admit).

So overall: bussing? Not something which looks particularly likely here overall, by and large.

[mastina]

However, we are 3 scum, 3 masons, 6 townies, so you're actually in a worse spot than friends and enemies on numbers alone, Night 1 and 2 you lost a doctor and a cop, and now you outed the masons.

Not counting remaining town PRs there may have

There's this, too.

There's three masons, a vig, and if DEB's claim is legitimate, a detective.
That's 4-5 players the scum cannot eliminate during the day but need to eliminate during the night.

4-5 players, out of 11.

With 4-5 players out of 11 uneliminatable during the day, that's 6-7 players as the elimination pool...with three scum in it. Basically, a minimum of 50% shot at eliminating scum today.

Nightkill one, and tomorrow it's 3-4 uneliminatable out of 8-9 (depending on if the vig gets a shot off). Still a 50% shot at eliminating scum.
Nightkill another, and on D5 it's 2-3 uneliminatable out of 5-7 (depending on if the vig gets a shot off). Still pretty good odds.
Nightkill another, and on D6 it's 1-2 uneliminatable out of 2-5 (depending on if the vig gets a shot off). If 2 conftown are alive out of two players, that's obviously a town win. If there's two conftown alive out of three town players, still a town win. If it's two conftown alive out of 4-5 players, still pretty damn good odds.
If 5 were alive and there's another nightkill, that's 0-1 uneliminatable come 3p lylo.

But overall I'd say the masons are right to be smug in their chances of victory.

[mastina]

would she kill him and then cry over the coffin like a grieving widow? I don't think so ~.~

To be fair, FL would be the one deciding, not her, buuuuuuuuuuuut, I agree with you in trusting pichu on Ydrasse being town.

[mastina]

Nobody has claimed it so they're either a named townie, lying, or scum has the role

Possible, but also possible: it's a red herring to make us paranoid of a scum supersaint.