Micro 794: Miss List II (Game Over)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Greetings to those players I am familiar with - implosion, creature and Not Mafia. I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.

NotMafia

- want to take a stab at selling me that you will be more active than in our past games and thus not an optimal Day 1 lynch given the setup?

I’ll have some general thoughts about the setup tonight when I have a computer.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’ll only be phone posting til evening when I have computer access so don’t expect walls til then.

Do you typically wall post within the first page or two of the game?

Yes, always.

Well more accurately I make reasonable posts that are more than 1 line and are called walls in the current game environment.

And do you have an issue with not voting in my first post? Ok have one then ...

VOTE: Cult

[MagnaofIllusion]

So Math - in 20 why did you not mention Implosion at all in your reads? I mean you were happy calling two players who have yet to post scum but not commenting at all on a player with posts (slight as they are)?

@Everyone Else

– If NotMafia ever flips scum Math should be turbo-lynched. Because this whole narrative he’s been desperately trying craft reeks of a hamfisted crafted bus attempt from Math who thinks (probably rightly) that NotMafia is a weak partner that needs excised immediately. It tracks given how he’s willing to give Chickadee a pass as “lynchbait” when NotMafia is the dictionary definition of that trait. Leading a Day 1 lynch of a partner for Town cred is very viable motivation in this set-up. Remember – scum cannot win by lynching even down to LYLO. Look at the scum win condition –

You win when a lynched Town member vengekills the Town player on the Miss List.

Even in three player LYLO a mislynch on Town doesn’t win the scum team the game … they have to dodge the last bullet in our gun.

Now given this is a pre-flip associative I don’t particularly want to put much stock in it until the point we get confirmation on one of them. But something to keep in mind.

--

No votes, you two?

So Cult was this a purely empty? Because you’ve done nothing to follow up with either response (other than generically calling me scummy). Did you have any actual intent behind the question? I get that it is early game but still I’d figure you would have something to say.

mislynching not_mafia is much less risky than mislynching magna i think

Risky in what sense?

You didn’t ask me but I’m going to answer anyway and give you the dual answer –

1. If Math is scum then he knows my lynch Day 1 means I absolutely put a bullet in the head of who I feel is the strongest scum player on the list. And if he is an alt as I somewhat suspect he knows from past Vengeful games I can do just that.
2. Day 1 is frankly the easiest day for Town to Vengekill. Just on random dice there is a 80% chance (4 in 5) they down scum. I frankly feel it would be sort of a waste for me to take the easiest shot ever. But that’s just me.

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Because magna is scummier and if what you're reading as an associative works if NM flips scum why wouldn't it work if magna flips scum?

I’d love to hear exactly what you think is scummy in my posts before this one. Please indulge an old man.

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I have good feelings about cult and math so far.

Can you elaborate on this? Given Math’s narrative is all over the place I really would like to know what gives you good feelings. I have some ideas what it might be but would like to hear firsthand.

--

Why are we talking like it's page 200 when it's page 2?

Are you going to contribute meaningfully this game or not? There is no reason not to be playing Mafia on Page 2.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So Math - in 20 why did you not mention Implosion at all in your reads?

He did mention me, he just called me "you" instead of "implosion".

Good point. Misread on my part. But since you are here why are you voting NotMafia and how do you feel about his saying you were "sucking up" to him?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm very curious Cult how you are Townreading Buj .. his ISO is so dark Null the only way it could be more Null is if he failed to post like Heath.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I liked his questions – what he was saying made sense where math's motivations seemed ulterior. They're snap reads – from my perspective the people I'm playing with are evenly divided between Town/Scum. I don't need to wait for the few scum to reveal themselves like in a normal game, judgments can be made pretty fast. I'm actually kind of loving this setup so far because of that.

Hmmm ... see I think most of his questions were very surface level (given Math's 'associative read' was pure junk why focus solely on that?) and didn't provide much in the way of actually probing anything.

Do you have experience with Math that lead you to your conclusion his motivations were 'ulterior'?

[MagnaofIllusion]

What this is is me being good with a Heath/Creature scumteam idea

So you think scum go the complete lurker route for half their team of 4 when Town only outweighs them by a single player at the start of Day 1?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'd hardly call what he said "surface level" but I'm not going to spend a huge amount of time hard defending him. Why not focus on something that's pure junk? Isn't a bad push scum-indicative?

You could say that I have experience with Math, but I don't think you need it to agree with me. Does the whole NM diatribe seem entirely genuine to you?

The issue I have from it is that I'm not seeing Buj go down a line of thought that says “Your associative is junk” as much as “Sure your associative may work but let’s lynch MoI first instead”. Granted I am a little biased myself but that was what I read from it.

And I think it goes without saying I didn’t find the “NotMafia” scum angle forced which is why I said early it looked like a bad bus attempt.

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you realise this game started 8 hours ago

i am not suggesting heath is scum for lurking lol

or even that he is lurking, he probably just hasn't seen the daystart or his role PM

although creature very well could be scumlurking

Sure I understand that. I also understand that you chose to basically sheep along with a player that you earlier inferred was a boat anchor for their team on Heath (with no posts who you say likely hasn’t even read his role PM) over Creature (who has only two posts but you just acknowledged is far more likely to be scum of the two).

See why that look strange as heck?

[MagnaofIllusion]

EBWOP and bolded

And I think it goes without saying I

did

find the “NotMafia” scum angle forced which is why I said early it looked like a bad bus attempt.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I feel like we're disagreeing in wording but agreeing in principle here. Bad bus attempts are also forced, no?

No we are agreeing - my EBWOP should make that clear when you get to it.

Going to bed and will mull over what I think is the best place for my vote while I dream ...

UNVOTE: Cult

[MagnaofIllusion]

Chicka I very much disagree his narrative was consistent. Read page 1 again with critical eye -

13 - NotMafia and I are partners.
15 - NotMafia being lynched means I should sacrifice.
20 - We are partners again.

Granted there is to be expected some early game hyperbole but that is two diametrically opposed stances in 8 posts. Keep in mind the only way I could sacrifice is if I am Town. So 15 shows he clearly either doesn’t think I was really scum and had an agenda or that he was not logically thinking in his stances.

Why do you think he is so willing to defend you so strongly in the early game?

[MagnaofIllusion]

BuJ - my issues with NotMafia is not lurking but proficiency aka not being a content-less waste of a slot with empty posting. Why did you assume it had to do with lurking?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So I’ve been mulling it over and I think the pool I want to explore is Math / Creature / NotMafia.

The more I process the awkwardness of Math’s push to link NotMafia to me as buddies followed by his now Townreading NM and wanting to wagon a player with no posts over players he finds more suspect the more I think he needs a vote.

Creature pretty much is playing the “look how casual I am about being useless Town read me” card.

Not Mafia for a couple of reasons I’m not going to expound upon right yet.

VOTE: Math is where it starts for me.

Need more content from Chick, Implosion and a Buj to really start sorting them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If you think looking for Cognitive Dissonance in posting is not a good way to find scum I can’t help you Math.

And tip - if you want people to care about your breaking strategy you created maybe link to it in the future instead of believing most players follow you like MS is Instagram or Snapchat or whatever social media platform you favor.

I’m still curious why you think the best place for your vote is a slot with no posts which may well get replaced. Because you aren’t getting any readable content from an empty slot with that “pressure”.

Also I can safely assume you will volunteer to sacrifice tonight if scum is lynched?

[MagnaofIllusion]

why would i sacrifice myself just because you don't like how i play

Not sure why you are trying to shape that as my point – if I was going to target someone as auto-sacrifice for playstyle it would clearly be NotMafia. My point is you said the scummiest player should sacrifice. Currently you are highest on my radar thus testing your resolve on your plan.

not only do the cogdiss tells not apply here, they literally stopped being useful in 2008; i dare you to show evidence that they're better than random at finding scum in 2017/18

I think you put way too much stock that the “game has changed” if you are posting fluff like this.

like i feel like it's pretty obvious that when i request a player to sacrifice themselves under a hypothetical scenario, i'm reading them as scum in that scenario

i'm not asking you to sacrifice just because i'm being a dick, i, at the time, thought you and N_M were scum together

i am actually incredulous that you from your POV on the game think i'm a better sacrifice than Not_Mafia and Creature, both of whom you've shit on for being useless

Are you angling for some sort of Town read for hypocrisy here? Because there is delightful levels of irony in you thinking that my question was any different than your directive in saying “Hey … I think you are the scummiest player so be prepared to make the sacrifice tonight”.

You seem a bit too worked up over a single vote and some questioning here Math. Are you prone to over-emotive outbursts?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hot take.

VOTE: Chickadee

Why don't you elaborate a bit.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Is MoI a Thor alt?

Lol. The number of games Thor and I have played together says "Nope".

[MagnaofIllusion]

Quick phone post that either Math or Chickadee can answer - has Math ever played as Town against Scum Chickadee?

[MagnaofIllusion]

it's a lot easier for me to do a quick search for people's towngames and scumgames (using a search for mafia PTs) than it is to find all the games they've ever replaced into

i don't like the "oh I'm happy to get a town PM!" entrance

even though that's literally what i do every time i replace into games (because I purposefully replace into towngames)

so given that it rubs me the wrong way, yet it's also a towntell for myself, the only solution is to do a meta-check on him

First I agree that Panther’s entrance was awkward as heck. But from there I have a question.

Why not do a term search in the replacement thread for his username in reverse Page order to draw the data as opposed to asking him?

i'm just conflicted about the "I'M HAPPY TO ROLL TOWN" behaviour, and i do think it's a tell for a lot of people, but whether it's a towntell or scumtell varies from player to player

This is some sort meta joke, right? I mean after all your lecturing on what constitutes valid scum-hunting earlier for you to float this really blows my mind. Enough so that you get a pic ..



--

Cult is likely town, and has vote parked chickadee for a while, yet no one has jumped on despite her not really looking especially town. I'm not entirely sure how this plays into this setup with likelihood of scum bussing or not, but I also now quite dislike that she ignored my vote which I think was the kind of vote town will usually be really irritated by.

Here’s my problem with this line of thinking – this set-up basically takes a huge amount of the sting out of Town being mislynched right out of the equation with the Vengekill on a limited set of players most of which are Scum. Town has little reason to be over-irritated by naked voting for this reason – even if they get lynched they get a free shot that is very likely to hit scum this early.

And while I think Cult is likely Town that doesn’t mean inherently that she’s right about Chickadee. In fact if she is the “Walking Mislynch” both she and Math have indicated I’d have expected scum to have really power bussed her for Town cred. Maybe the scum team is nervous about bussing for some reason (like, perhaps the entire team is generally weak players). It’s too early to tell but I’m this early I’m going with my gut.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Magna, I'm thinking you might be town. Where are you at in terms of reads outside of Mathdino?

Ok first let me start with a general statement – in normal games I spend little time trying to Town-hunt early. So usually I am focused on recognizing 1 or 2 strong Town reads and focus on scum-hunting strongly. But with this game since we are in what I would call “Perma-LYLO” status that needs to change.

So I’m looking for four Town in the rest of the eight of you. I don’t really care for Ranger-lists but I’ll summarize my pools as I feel at this moment.

Town reads – Yourself, Implosion
Neutral reads – Panther, Chickadee, BuJ
Scum reads – Math, NotMafia, Creature

Our back and forth has me feeling pretty comfortable with you as Town given the way you address other players and am seeing things similar to how I am seeing them. Implosion gets upgraded to Town after he stopped playing close to the vest and opened up about his thought process.

I’ve put plenty down on why I feel Math is scummy already. I can rehash as needed.

NotMafia seems far too composed and putting on a similar “Look at me, I’m casual about not doing much to scum-hunt or help people sort me as Town” move that Creature is. The NotMafia I am familiar with is much more hyperactive and tries as Town even if his historic results have been poor. And while relational links are very weak pre-flip what I’m seeing with his interactions with Math also put him here.

Creature is lurking so hard that I am finding it harder to believe he is Town. Town Creature in games I’ve played with in the past (including a Something Smart joint) has been much more active.

So that leaves my three Neutral reads. Panther I’ve only scanned his page 7 content via phone but my first impression was gut Townish. I’ll be reading in more depth later but as of now he’s closest to my Town read block.

Chicka is a mixed bag. I like some of her comments on the Not Mafia defense early but since then she’s been coasting and doing nothing really proactive. I also very much dislike what you pointed about her question to Math – it seemed very superficial and only to pacify my question. If I were Town in her position and knew Math had no experience with scum me I’d be very much wondering if he wasn’t trying to pocket me with the constant defense – he seems almost too sure of her being Town with no real meta basis to ground it in. However I don’t think they are partners so her dropping to scum would mean I’d be moving Math out of the scum pile. Thus Neutral for now.

Buj also has a very soft ISO up until page 7. As with Panther I need to see what 7 and 8 brings.

At least one of my Neutral / Town reads has to be wrong on numbers but this is where I stand at the moment.

Thoughts?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I also feel like we're being really slow to form wagons? Which seems meh. Wagons are good here. The difference between a town lynch and a scum lynch isn't even that high right now and associative tells are possibly valuable.

Thought experiment Implosion - what does this fact tell you about the composition of the scum team in general?

--

Cult you could probably look at most of my games and see that I'm lynchbait. Seriously just take your pick.

Fun fact – I took a quick look at Chickadee’s most recent 5 completed games on site and came up with the following:

Mini Normal 1989 -

Chickadee, who was a Town Doctor, has been killed Night 4.

Mini Theme 1927 -

Spoiler: Alive
Chickadee - Mike Ehrmantraut, Mafia JOAT

– Translation Endgamed Town in Win

Micro 769 -

Chickadee Vanilla Town Lynched D1

Mini Theme 1968 -

Spoiler: Tasty Bread (8/13)
Chickadee EspeciallyTheLies

– Translation Survived with all scum dead

Mini Normal 1957 -

Chickadee, Mafia Even-Night Gunsmith, Lynched Day 2

@Chicka

– I’d like some insight from you as to why you agree with Math’s lynchbait assessment because these 5 games don’t seem to bear that out. Only one had you as Town lynched Day 1 and the only other game that you died by lynch was Day 2 as scum. Now this is just these first 5 completed games I saw in your ISO so if you have something to say to the contray I would love to hear it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

wat

if chickadee-town is objectively scummy to the point that
1. multiple townies have suspected her
2. it's really easy to scumread her as scum

then why would i want to join a chickadee wagon when doing so was literally my scum strategy twice in a row

So is the point here you are more worried about not being perceived as playing to your scum meta?

And in that situation
Do we really trust his ability to shoot scum

You should see N_M play vig sometime.

Putting aside the fact that Day 1 is the best time to lynch a player you don’t trust to generally shoot – please tell me more about NotMafia’s Vig prowess given you don’t trust him to shoot into a 80% scum pool Day 1 if he is Town.

--

I don't really like doing super detailed reads, because at that point you're just telling scum what they're doing right or wrong

Why do you feel this way given the set-up? Scum have very little agency to make kills – it requires them being lynched which is suboptimal since they can only win if a Town is mislynched and misfires. Odds of that happening only get reasonable with 1 or 2 scum left. So you are sacrificing showing your thought processes which allow people to read you more easily for a benefit that is frankly marginal at best.

[MagnaofIllusion]

If we just lynch creature straight up, we don't have a plan in place for who to sacrifice

Lynch Creature - Math sacrifices is my thought given how confident you are he is scum and how hard you are working to have him lynched later.

VOTE: Creature

[MagnaofIllusion]

On an unrelated note, I've been thinking about it, and I think the best play is to always have two people who we think are either the scummiest or who we think are scum together be the ones to sacrifice. If they're both scum, neither will be able to sacrifice and we'll essentially have two guilties, and in the other situations (one town and one scum or two town), I don't think we're any worse off than if just one person was set to sacrifice.

As a theory this works fine as long as we can get consensus enough to get the selected two to pull the trigger.

I think this is a dangerous line of thinking to go down. Both Math and Chickadee herself have framed Chickadee as being lynchbait in response to my thinking she's scum, but I think a question that Chickadee has let go unanswered is a pretty important response to that idea:

FYI having done a quick game history dive on Chicka I’m just letting you know I acknowledge this point and am rethinking my earlier “Both can’t be partners” stance.

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Not all mods put the name of the user that filled the slot. Some games have replacement queues. I've filled slots before they go up on replacement requests.

Plus the question implicitly puts him under pressure and forces self-consciousness. Or, rather, it did before I got dogged for asking the question 3 times.

Frankly it puts him under no pressure at all. In his shoes regardless of alignment I’d link you to the “My Topics” link for me and say “Have at it champ”. Which is what I would have done instead of asking him to do it if I were you and really interested in the answer. Takes time and patience but is honest meta-diving.

Some tells are useless altogether. Some tells vary from player to player. I think this COULD be alignment indicative, but I'd need to see how he replaces into games in general. It was a one off question, not the basis of my entire scumhunting.

95-99% of what people consider “tells” are absolutely useless junk unless you are talking about VI level of play. And I don’t think Panther is a VI so, yeah, I find it a particularly useless exercise. I suspect you are going to find this a personal affront to your Mafia credibility but that’s where I stand.

--

[MagnaofIllusion]

Here's an example. If you lynch me, I will shoot Creature if and only if I see {Cult, Chick} and one of Bujaber/implosion.

If Creature dies in the morning, you know that Cult/Chick must contain scum. If one of them is town, you know Bujaber/implosion must contain scum.

If Creature DOESN'T die in the morning, you know that I did NOT see Cult/Chick/Buplosion, meaning that group must contain at least 2 town. This makes it optimal to lynch outside of that group, and force scummy people inside that group to sacrifice.

Hey I’m on board with this plan as long as the lynched player is not the one to determine the list.

I’d say lynch either Math or Chicka at this stage then and suggest the list of four be Creature – Not Mafia – Buj – Math / Chicka (whoever we don’t lynch).

That list clears up two of three of my most likely suspects if Creature doesn’t die.

e's terrible as vig, and doesn't really give a shit as town in my experience. My point is I don't think you really have the ability to read Not_Mafia

To put it delicately as I can regarding my thoughts on your opinion –

Your game would be a lot easier if you actually fucking addressed my points instead of doing the asshole move of "OH I SEE SO EVERY POST YOU MAKE IS SCUM MOTIVATED"

Listen I understand that you think you are the next big thing Math. I’ve seen at least 15 of you before over the years. I address posts as they come through the page-count.

So probably best for you to realize everything isn’t about you and learn to exercise some patience.

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Math

Since this is in line with the plan I'm moving away from the magnet.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Cult / Implosion

- Whenever you get back to the thread I'd love input on going with Math's plan and a lynch group of Chicka / Math with a list of Not Mafia / Creature / BuJ.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And yeah although math already mentioned this.

I want to know *exactly* what line of reasoning led to this. Because the lynched player not being the one to determine the list has problems both with the fact that scum will inevitably bias the list, and with the fact that a lynched player is less likely to actually be willing to follow through on a plan if it's not a list they came up with.

And one of my big worries in this is some townie potentially deciding to go yolo for one reason or another after we construct a plan and just feeding us false information that we treat as sacrosanct.

Frankly because the cares of the lynched player are much less important than getting information useful to those living Town players left alive. The role of the lynched player (assuming Town) is 100% to communicate to the living players whether the list of 4 is all represented on the Miss List or not. That's all. Remember - the living players are those who have to go forward. Getting a consensus (even if some input is from scum ... it is going to have to be) of what list of 4 to send also provides information going forward as to what players wanted what names on the list. Heck you could even have every non-lynch target player name the 4 they want and do a straight point tally. The point is to either lock in that at least 2 of the 3 names on the list are scum (with Creature being dead) or provide "Can't all be scum together" information for endgame.

As to scum being able to skew the input - um ... that's really irrelevant. Either they make a strong push to make sure Creature their boat anchor slot gets killed and damn at least 2/3 of their other members to PoE very early or give Town information that at least 1 of the 3 (and possibly more) are not scum and give good POE data for the end. Reminds me of how I set up the breaking strategy in the first Cyclical Experiment Large that assured scum got PoEd by endgame (not that it went that long, scum basically folded after it got going).

Remember - a dead Townie today gets 4 scum 1 Town as a list regardless of what checklist Town provides to guide Shoot Creature versus Shoot Carefully Elsewhere.

Of course all of this goes out the window if either

A. Creature is Town (which is unlikely)
B. Stupid Town goes all "YOLO I know better than the rest despite having a great strategy to PoE scum to death"

B seems to be the biggest threat as it stands now. Not sure what can be done to mitigate that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's ridiculous. You're just doing the "YOLO I'm better than everyone else" in reverse.

1. The cares of the lynched player are all that matter, because LITERALLY HALF THE REST OF THE GAME IS SCUM FROM THEIR POV. The lynched player and any dead townies are ALL they can trust. What if the player isn't townreading you?

2. Say I get lynched. The fact that me and my top townread are your top scumreads already proves to me that my reads are significantly better than yours this game. I also have more experience with most of this playerlist, and the fact that you're still not lockscum on Creature REALLY shows how little you know of Creature's scumgame.
So why the fuck should I listen to you?

3. A point tally is going to be won by scum. Town never agrees on anything. Scum have an inherent day advantage here.

You're dangerously naive. If I got you lynched and then tried to force you to use my proposed scumteam, would you do it?

1. No, they don’t. They are dead. Of course to their perspective half the game is Mafia – that’s the setup. Derp. The point (that you seem incapable of grasping) is that the living players are the ones who are going to have to take the information provided and use it going forward. If you are in a position to be lynched Day 1 your reads and views probably aren’t going to carry any weight for remaining Town on Day 2. That’s how players on this site operate. And you are a prime example of why. You keep spouting off garbage about how good your reads are and how terrible other players are. I’m guessing if I was lynched today and put my reads list down you’d do your derp best to ignore the information provided because “you are good”. Nevermind that you only think you have good reads since actually have no clue since the only card you have confirmed is your own (or everyones if you are scum but then everything you are posting is from a strategic point of view so that eventuality isn’t important in this discussion). Giving clarity to the remaining Town players after the lynch and death tonight (either by list operation or by who the lynched Mafia chose to nominate and which Town died) is much more important than your need to be “right”. I broke a much more complex Large Game set-up than this by providing strong PoE information to Town each day.

2. I’d love for you to get lynched. I don’t particular give a hoot if you think you are god-Mafia Player Supreeme because your attitude this game is “I’m the best you had best listen to me I’m smarter than you”. Again I’ve seen much better players (like Fate for example) with that attitude than you probably are. So feel free to try to protect your ego by thinking I’m not worth listening to. But don’t pretend you are trying to work with your “Townblock” with the piss poor attitude you are showing here.

3. Again you totally miss the point. It doesn’t matter if scum “win” the point tally or not in who gets chosen of the list of 4. Because regardless that list gives Town strong POE information NO MATTER WHO IS ON IT. Take your ego, set it on the shelf and actually put on your thinking cap. Alive Town players get a strong set of PoE information no matter what the makeup of the list going into Night is. And that information starting Day 2 can be used to get a good choice for lynch and sacrifice and a list of three that provides even more information the next day.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’ll only sacrifice after MOI does

[MagnaofIllusion]

Quick phone post - optimal play is to lynch Town within the me / Implosion / Buj group and have a list with remaining two and scummiest player left outside group.

Since I know I’m Town I volunteer for rope today. For shits and grins force Imp and Buj to agree to sacrifice.

When I get to computer tonight I’ll reread and figure out best info to be gained from third list member.

[MagnaofIllusion]

- I'm having trouble finding out how information can be gleaned from the town lynch honestly. I think we're better off just lynching scum and forcing sacrifices.

- ...if you're town imp and Bujaber can't sacrifice tho?

On point 2 - that's sarcasm ... adjust your detector for better results.

The amount of information that can be gleaned with two confirmed scum (FMPOV) depends on what is most useful to the remaining living Town. At this point only 1 of you / NotMafia / Cult / Panther is scum so the four of you coming to a conclusion is mostly Town driven. Since I will see Impl / Buj and their partner along with their choice there are options.

As an example of a way information can be passed - we can designate two players to potentially clear (for example - Not Mafia and Panther). If I don't see both in the list I shoot Implosion. If I only see one I shoot Buj. If I see neither I take the shot between the two player who aren't Imp and Buj.

That's an example. Obviously since this isn't really Mafia but a logic puzzle at this point most of the day can be used to hash out what is the best course of action. As a reminder there are only three lynches left in the game. Lynching scum today is going to result in a sacrifice that from you proposed point of view is likely not going to help you ascertain who you think is scum (Not Mafia is a solid Town read for you). Thus lynching Town at least can possibly help sort things out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok so you just do you. I’m just going to wait til my turn to be lynched so I can take my vengekill shot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Oh hey ... you guys allowed scum Buj to get scum Implosion to self-hammering range without taking your votes off. Very tech.

So I've PMed SS about sacrificing tonight. Hopefully Cult gets a chance to see the plan before things are locked.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yes please make sure scum is in position to self-hammer before everyone checks in ...

@Panther

- I'd like to float an idea to you as I've read overnight and you are my most confident Town read among the three of you (Math / NotMafia / yourself). Let me know what you think.

My plan / suggestion - lynch me today and I will use my kill choice to perhaps get you information. I'll be seeing three names on the Miss List - Buj, and two others one of which is the last scum. My proposion is I shoot as follows -

If the Miss List is - Buj / Not Mafia / Mathdino I shoot Buj (confirmed scum) right in the head and clear you for LYLO as 100% certified Town. Town can't lose tomorrow as long as NotMafia / Math cross vote, you lynch one and if they aren't scum they shoot the other for the win.

If the Miss List is - Buj / You / Other scum I shoot the other scum leaving you in LYLO with 100% scum lynch for the win.

Thoughts?

--

@Math

- I'm going to head off what I perceive to be your objections before you voice them.

I either shoot today or shoot tomorrow. So any objections to me taking the game into my hands in scenario 1 are meaningless as I'm going to have to make the decision tomorrow. Thanks to your unilateral choice yesterday we have no idea whether Cult agreed to the sacrifice or not. Great jorb! Had we waited to get Cult to say "Heck yeah I'll sacrifice" or "Hell now WTF are you thinking" we'd have some clarity on whether scum used their sacrifice block yesterday perhaps. Now their is no way to tell if he was on board. So regardless there will be no clarity for others if I am not lynched today.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And if Panther is scum?

It likely doesn't change the fact will end up shooting tomorrow or today. If Buj is lynched and Panther is the last scum he's not going to allow me to die overnight given that I'm in the suspect pool so the only way it is matters is if scum-Panther used his sacrifice block last night which we don't have any clarity on thanks to you and Math turbo-lynching Implosion yesterday.

If I am not lynched and end up dead overnight ... I can't complain I guess. But that's probably not happening.

But I'm more sure he's not scum than you ... so .. there you have it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

i mean except in the case of actual confirmed scum present on D1

lynching scum is always better

if we lynch the town in magna/bujaber, they shoot confirmed scum, and we gain nothing

if they try to plan out anything, scum will just add the right person to the miss list to fuck them over

Glad you didn’t bother to read my post to Panther since it wasn’t really your opinion I was interested in. Thumbs up!

however, if we lynch the scum in magna/bujaber, we gain another day for scum to use up their sacrifice stopper

Top quality Tech thinking. Make sure to ignore the a possible game locking plan (predicated on my Panther read but I’m sure you ignore that because I’m a moron, am I right?). And then float this which is pointless.

Lynch scum today and it doesn’t matter if they are forced to use their block. Because tomorrow is 3 players. Lynch Town – they shoot and whether the sacrifice block has been used is meaningless. Lynch Scum – game over so the sacrifice block having been used or not is also meaningless.



I mean – that’s some great prioritization of managing scum’s sacrifice block … make sure you put emphasis on it today when it is pointless whether it is used tonight if we lynch Buj. But yesterday when exercising the tiniest bit of patience to get Cult on record to agreeing to sacrifice and thus maybe get info depending on who died? Nope … not a concern … just end the day. Therefore we have no chance as today started that it was used or not.

[MagnaofIllusion]

why would scum ever decide to kill cult after we just told her to sacrifice

occam's razor says she checked in and went with the plan

my knowledge of cult as a player suggests she checked completely out of the game after ruining D1 with her tunnel on chickadee and fell on the sword so she wouldn't have to play this setup after everyone was inevitably going to activity tell her (as she gets very annoyed when people try)

And talk about not seeing the forest for the trees ... if this is your conclusion the fact that you were spouting off about making the scum use their sacrifice tonight is hilarious since I just pointed out lynching scum today renders it useless as a tool for Town since they can't use it tomorrow regardless ....

I mean ... I just can't wrap my brain around how you think what you posted there wasn't completely pointless noise if you are Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

i really don't understand how you can be this un-self-aware of how bad your reads have been this entire game tbh

[MagnaofIllusion]

Zzzzz someone hammer so I don't have to read this bickering

I always assumed you didn't bother to read anyway ... I mean today's opening vote for Panther over myself or Buj seemed like strong evidence of that.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My town on end of d1 was you, me, cult, and Not_Mafia
The only townie I didn't catch was Chickadee, who I talked extensively about how mislynchbaity she is

Your town was yourself and implosion xD

It's hilarious that you are pretending that my reads as Town weren't (Cult / Implosion) and of my Neutral reads my top two leaning Town were Panther and Chicka. And of course myself. So the only unknown for my reads Day 1 is Panther with 1 miss on Implosion. Meanwhile you have I known outside of yourself (Cult) and three up in the air (while I do grant you that you were right on me you can't crow about that until Mod confirmed either today or tomorrow when I get lynched and shoot to win the game).

I mean ... I grant you that you could be just scum posturing here for effect. I hope so otherwise you've got some serious issues with ego-fragility if you are Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Popping in to say - hoping Panther arrives before Buj scum gets to self hammer.

That is all.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Also if nobody explains it, I'll go find it

But

I haven't read all of the thread yet so if one of you could recap why bujb is confirmed scum that'd be nice

Chicka shot Creature on a list of Me / Impl / Creature / Buj

She was only supposed to shoot Creature if all four were on the 5 person Miss List. So unless Chicka went rogue (which I have no reason to think she would) at least 3 of the four on the list have to be scum for her to shoot Creature.

Truth be told he's only Conf Scum from my point of view. So you do need to exercise your judgement. But I know for certain he's scum based on the Creature shot and knowing I'm Town so when I get lynched and go to shoot I know he's showing up with two other players on my Miss List.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna, its surprising to me that your read on me is strong enough to bet the game on. Can you tell me what, specifically, got you to me being your most confident town?

I don't want to hurt your ego but it's not because you are SuperTown2018 obv-player. But you are by far the most Town FMPOV given 2 of the three of you / Math / NotMafia have to be Town.

Frankly the best post that sold me from your ISO was your question to NotMafia about Derp-clearing because I know from my own experience that scum (especially weaker players) have in the past gone to the "Oh let me post something that shows I don't know the setup so I can't be Scum" well in Open game. I've caught a couple of players in Jungle Republic set-ups over the years trying that tactic. So that it occured to you that his "Oh, didn't know it was 4 scum" could be a play for a derpclear showed a level of questioning I don't expect to come from Scum.

But in comparison to the others? You're the obvious choice. Math has had an agenda to make sure he's the BMOC and in charge the entire game and I certainly would not put it past him to be running a "Attack the most experienced player to keep them off their game" plan from the outset. That coupled with his ease of reading NotMafia as obv-Town (when frankly the only way to read NotMafia is with a bullet or by relation since he's always content lite) have me seriously considering him as the most likely partner to Buj. That and his refusal to look at the plan I want you to look at. Which would be game winning for Town if I'm reading you right as Town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

In the case that you're town, Magna's plan involves lynching town-Magna and:

- If he sees you and one of me/N_M on the Miss List, he shoots not-you
- If he sees me and N_M, he just shoots confscum Bujaber

This is exactly equivalent to just lynching confscum Bujaber and having Magna and whoever we're lynching tomorrow sacrifice.

If you're town, mafia is gonna say "well I'd rather Bujaber get shot" and whichever of me/N_M is scum just puts the other one on the list to force that shot.

Basically, the plan is a case of Fancy Play Syndrome. It adds nothing because scum can just tailor the Miss List to whatever plan we write.

Read this carefully Panther. Because this is handwaving in an attempt to pretend that the game is in the same state tomorrow when it is not.

Because in his plan I'm still going to be around to be able to be painted as scum. He's already said in his mind scum didn't use their sacrifice block. So I'm not going to be able to sacrifice tonight if so the waters can still be muddied. And notice he's not talking about who he thinks should sacrifice tonight because with his solid Town read on NotMafia that means you.

My lynch means either

A. All four players from Chickadee's list are dead and flipped. You have been absolutely cleared as Town (for not appearing on the Miss List) and thus you will not be lynched tomorrow and either scum is lynched or the Town in NotMafia / Math is lynched and shoots the other for the win.

B. I'm lynched, flip Town and don't see both NotMafia and Math on the Miss List and shoot the one who is. Buj is confirmed scum to everyone mechanically (by my flip and 3 of 4 on Chickadee's list having to be scum) and is lynched for the Town win.

We lynch Buj he flips scum their is no combination of players electing to sacrifice that gives any clarity regardless who dies (it will be you, BTW given that I'm shooting tomorrow most likely and you are my strongest Town read). I can elaborate on scenarios as to why you will get killed based on who is left if you'd like.

[MagnaofIllusion]

you're obviously neglect the fact that you're for whatever reason willing to bet the entire game on the idea that panther is town

and that scum-panther wouldn't just put me or not_mafia on the miss list in order to get town shot

i'm floored that you somehow think panther is more likely to be town than both me and not_mafia

Umm ... hypo-Scum Panther would have to put you or NM on the Miss List that's how it works. You act like that is a revelation when it's basic mechanics.

I really don't mind if you dislike me putting the game on the line with my read since I'm pretty sure it locks the game. Your personal egotism isn't my concern.

If Panther is scum with Buj as you said you really don't have any say in the matter do you? So doesn't the fact that you are trying your hardest to appeal to Panther that the plan is faulty show that you don't think he's scum? There's a real disconnect there. Not to mention that scum-Panther probably wouldn't go to the trouble of questioning so much of a plan by me that would win him the game.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Panther

- Notice he avoids following the "No winning path if MoI and Buj" line with the logical conclusion beyond that - there is no reason for that scum-team not have conceded the game already. Thus he's accepting that one of us is Town. And clearly he thinks Buj is the scum between us. That much is clear given he trying to treat me like the Village Idiot of PantsOnHeadington who has terrible play and is a moron. But he said himself if we lynch scum Buj today and I'm alive tomorrow I'm lynched. And hasn't refuted that his quicklynch on Implosion means scum have their sacrifice block likely in hand. So I'm going to live til tomorrow to be lynched and shoot. So why if I'm getting lynched and shooting tomorrow (as he just said) is he worried about me shooting today?

One of NotMafia and Math is scum who doesn't want a lock plan. The other doesn't understand what's going on and just is digging in on the "I'm right MoI is a moron" stance to protect their own ego. I'm leaning Math as the scum of the two.

[MagnaofIllusion]

but also consider that scum-me can literally just lynch you and put not_mafia on the miss list to force you to shoot bujaber

why have i not done that yet?

Because that clears Panther 100% since he isn't on the Miss List and thus dooms you to lose.

Why do you think somehow this is a damning refutation of the plan when it was already accounted for in the plan?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Panther

- The one element Math has correct is that if my read on you as Town is correct Buj isn't going to vote me. So I'd like your thoughts on whether you think NotMafia or Math is the second scum. Because I'd like the two of us to take a crack at getting the last Town on board.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@NotMafia

- Why if you are so dead set on lynching Buj and thinking along the lines that it was the absolute best course regardless of what Panther said (in fact you think Panther's a reliable scum candidate) why did you unvote Buj?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I understand that. You've said over and over that you aren't lynching me. So why bother to get Panther's (who you suspect could be scum) opinion on my breaking plan if you don't think it has merit?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm down to do magnas plan but it seems we won't have the votes

Neither of these two seem like they could be convinced

Yeah let's talk about possible lynches for today since the game seems to have ground into a slow state ...

1. Lynch me for the Plan - Likely not going to happen if my read on you is accurate since Buj will not go along with a plan that dooms his team.

2. Lynch Buj - obviously this is the easiest of possible lynches as both NM and Math are onboard. The downside is tomorrow in all likelyhood I'm left alive with both NotMafia and Math and then I have to shoot between them / watch whichever is Town likely self-lynch to lose the game thanks to their strong cross reads of HardTown on each other. The only way I can see giving in at this stage is if both NotMafia and Math agree to sacrifice (with me, of course) and you specifically don't sacrifice. That would be the only way I am certain you don't get taken out overnight with the Mafia pretty much assumed to have their Sacrifice Block.

3. Lynch Math - I think we both feel he's the best bet for scum between NM and himself but I don't think we have the votes with this either as I don't think NotMafia will go along and clearly if Math's scum he's been positioned as the survivor slot with Buj being the sacrifical lamb so Buj will not join that lynch either.

4. Lynch NotMafia - Another case of not having the votes. He more likely Town than Math but I think he's groomed to be the useful Town liability for scum in LYLO.

5. Lynch you - I'm not ever voting there so it would require all of Buj / Math / NotMafia (aka both scum and one bad Town slot) to push. And as I type this I think we could draw up a plan that helps win LYLO if they tried so probably not a likely outcome.

So where is your head at Panther? Frankly I think you are the one of the two of us with the most to lose (aka most likely to be shot overnight) if we don't lynch me since I'll be carried to LYLO on the strength of Chicka's list.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Glad everyone agreed to a quick night.

I’m ready to shoot so a vote will be appreciated.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Math I’m going to make this phone response a direct and to the point as I can.

What is the point of all that ranting? You act like we are playing a regular Mafia game. We aren’t. Mislynching me doesn’t lock you a win if you are scum. You have no leverage in that regards. As I said I’m prepared to shoot. Have been for days. So threatening me with a Burden Of Prof lynch is empty. If you think you look obvTown by being a “better than you” avatar since page 1 you really need to take your own advice on self reflection.

FMPOV you have spent this entire game shitting all over me in an attempt to be TownKing which I’ve seen far too often from scum over the years. You may think you are a special snowflake but it’s all old hat to me.

I said yesterday I was willing to bet the game on my reads. And now if Panther agrees with me nothing you can do to stop it. Rant all you like but don’t expect me to fold.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’m calling your bluff. Nice try.

VOTE: Mathdino

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’d say shoot me but I’m calling grandstanding. Which I do tip my hat to you on ... that takes diligence when you know you’ve lost.

Glad this is over. If Panther played a great game hats off to him. I’ll make sure to avoid seeing you down the line Math. For someone who just knocked Radient you are just like him and not worth having to see in games.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First would like to say thanks to Something Smart for another solid game Modded. You are too good a Mod to be stuck with such a Meh set-up SS!

Also thanks to my partners for helping me as much as possible once Chicka made things grim.

Generally agree that this game isn’t straightforward Mafia and feels like a very specialized variant. I’m not sure what can be done to make it more fun while keeping the Perpetual LYLO mechanic. Probably one of the most easily broken set-ups if you get an obvious player in a scum role.

@Chicka

- I don’t know if you read the Scum PT but kudos for nailing the scum-team and really making this an uphill battle. I would only suggest work at being a little more open and verbose with your thoughts early on. You instincts this game were spot on and without you who knows how different the game would have turned out. My Town MVP vote goes to you.

@Creature

– either take a break from Mafia or be willing to actually put in effort if you draw scum. The fact that you are so easy to identify these days is a detriment to your own team every time you draw scum and really not fair to the other players who get saddled with you as a scum teammate.

--

also the fact that panther was caving to your plan on D3 read very badly on him

couldn't understand how town would've been okay with that one

No, it shouldn’t have. It should have signaled to you that your reads might be off. Because given some time and effort to look at things from a Town Panther perspective and my plan (which of course would never have come to fruition as I couldn’t shoot) is entirely reasonable with little risk. Even if his read on me is wrong there was little risk in lynching me. I couldn’t shoot if I was scum and Buj was a dead man walking the next day. And if I was Town then he knew the last scum was between you and NotMafia.

You failed to be able to put yourself in someone else’s perspective and it cost you.

Other that all I will say is my departing words before the lynch were 100% truthful Math – I’ll do my best to steer clear of games you play in (not that I think we will have much cross-over in interests so that should be an easy mission to accomplish). Good luck in your future games.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Competing against louder players is something I've been struggling with for a while now. It's easy to get discouraged when you're seen in most games as lynch bait, or the weak player.

Don't let the bully you or drown you out. Actively push-back whenever someone calls you lynch-bait (even if it is to your theoretical benefit). Reject the label and do your best to make your thoughts clearly heard. Don't let people define what you think of yourself as a Mafia player. It is certainly good to look for advice post-game but don't let people inherently dismiss you Day 1.

I know these are all tough things to do but the more you strive towards them the better off you will be as a Mafia player.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks Magna, truly.

I look forward to playing with you again.

Same here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Panther - i was pretty sure that I was viewed as “too dumb” by Math for him to trust me to take a shot. And I figured NM would follow Math’s lead. And of course Buj wasn’t voting me.

Also I felt confident that I crafted the proposal to infuriate Math so he would push against it as further insurance.