Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Ircher]

VOTE: Lovebird
I’ll catch up Saturday.

[Ircher]

Night 3 Vigilante/Vengeful: people keep crumbing this, stop crumbing. vig/venge someone based on community consensus. i doubt town picked vengeful but if anyone claims vengeful, policy lynch them (this is optimal play)

1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO: vig someone who's either dead weight or is likely to be lynched tomorrow. luckily we have a list of "most likely to be PR" to "least likely to be PR" so just try to hit vanillas imo. doubt anyone ever picks PGO in this setup

Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector: we hypoclaim cop targets tomorrow, remember to actually act like you have an inno

Universal Backup OR Role Cop: role cop is surprisingly not terrible. rolecop people at the top of the list. look for scum picking vengeful, redirector, etc.

Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor: i sincerely hope no one picked fruit vendor. neighborize talkative hard-to-sorts who won't get NK'd. i used to be a great neighbour but now i just get NK'd so don't neighborize me thanks

Yeah, stop with all the setup speccing please.

[Ircher]

Konnichiwa minnasan! o((*^▽^*))o

VOTE: Almost50

I PERESONALLY believe that the Beefster wagon is SILLY on principle - scum would be FOOLISH to immediately claim that they picked a slot with a ROLEBLOCKING role in it considering how IMPROTANT that is to scum ( ⚆ _ ⚆ )

We shouldn't be POLICY lynching people UNTIL we have good reason to scumread them and as far as I am COGNIZANT we only possess reason to believe that Beefster is ALIGNED WITH the TOWN ヾ(｡･ω･)ｼ

You are aware of bold and italics, yes? Also, remind me, what does cognizant mean? Regardless, I believe in the WIFOM factor and thus am ambivalent about the claim. Policy lynching is okay in some circumstances tbh, but I don’t think this is one of them.

On a side note, minor scumread on MathDino right now—too much setup analysis and appeal to WIFOM as well as suggesting a policy lynch for no real reason other than disagreeing with when someone decides to claim. Not all antitown behaviors are worthy of policy lynches.

[Ircher]

In my history with Beefster I have seen

- town Beefster take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and generally correctly conclude that he's coming from the right angle
- scum Beefster not take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and suggest he's scum for them

Actual read progression/flip flopping in Earthbound is the only transgression I can think of

So my firsr impeession of Beef is lolscum, what makes you townread him?

I do strongly consider meta, but are you really confident enough with your meta read to call Beef “lockscum”?

[Ircher]

wow.... i possess NO repsonse to play like that （￣へ￣）

still I am one WHOM believes in REFORMATION! just because he's a BAD townplayer doesn't mean we have to burn a MISLYNCH on him, we can simply ENCOURAGE him to play better and have confidence o(*≧□≦)o

(as town ftr)

I am cognizant of the implication ^_^

I strongly agree with this post.

[Ircher]

anyway, every game, someone asks "what if scum WIFOM'd the draft???"
and every game, it turns out that no, scum actually does want power roles, they did not WIFOM the draft and pick the same numbers
the only person in this game i think would do that is A50

This just hit me like a brick

Also assume Saske is town by draft because scum would never let someone pick such a high number?

I townread Saske for their reads, not the draft. I feel that picking a high number helps ensure you don’t conflict with someone else, so I wouldn’t rule out Saske scum.

[Ircher]

interestingly, FMPOV, while everyone would've had a 3/13 (or 23.1%) chance of being scum

due to the draft ruling out a bunch of scumteams, each of the singletons (this includes janitor FMPOV) actually has a 26.2% chance of being scum

the probability of someone in a duplet being scum is 21.9%

the probability of one of the triplets being scum is only 18.5%

scum is straight up more likely to be in the top half than the bottom half in this setup, and i'm guessing i can prove it using past results

so the risk early on is lynching potential PRs

VOTE: MathDino

[Ircher]

SIMYK is an alt yeah
so is the janitor

janitor the problem is that you seem more focused right now on tearing down information than building it
the point of early game is to go from low information to high information

i literally provided calculations proving that in this setup, there are people who are more likely to be scum
we have information, both from the draft and from 5 pages of content
but instead of commenting on it you've just questioned reasoning that i made in my first post
which i did specifically to produce more information.

How do you know SIMYK is an alt when they keep denying it?

[Ircher]

guys it doesn't make any sense for beefster to be lying

he'd just get fucked in massclaim

i doubt scum-him gets jailkeeper and thinks "oh boy lemme just pretend to be a VT instead of using my claim as a get out of jail free card later"

beefster is almost certainly vanilla

wouldn't mind if he ate vig tbh

Edit: you're in luck because lovebird is town

1. How is Lovebird town?
2. Didn’t you want to PL Beefster earlier?

[Ircher]

What's objectively bad about my posts ?

I don't think a mafia player should follow a set plan or scum/townhunt in a certain way... Maybe I play differently than you but if something bothers me, why wouldn't I question it?

I'm an alt yes

I mean, it hasn’t really seemed like you contributed anything really to this point (though the same could be said for me.)

[Ircher]

@Janitor: quit the bs

your posts have not been useful and do not demonstrate a town mindset

i have obviously evolved my reads since my literal first post, you're harping on me trying to create information out of what i had available to me at the time

RVS is great and all but it's stupid when you have information available already

also your slot ALWAYS had higher scum equity to me. i picked 2 because i thought scum would pick it.

you picked 2. and i'm townreading iconeum and TW more than you, soooooooOOOOOO...

Yeah, we had a bunch of info... That basically amounts to WIFOM, yet you seem very intent on focusing on said useless information.

[Ircher]

Anyone feel like spoonfeeding me why any of the setup spec p1 makes sense?

Because most people get the setup spec wrong and I enjoy correcting them with facts and statistics :3

Seriously though, it can be helpful. Last game I was able to predict (and prevent) a mafia night kill and fairly confidently figure out one of the mafias through setup spec and analysis of past games. Sadly, I woke up dead that night since the mafia knew my role and had a vig. Town lost that game (mostly due to toxicity)

Ok, except I don’t see Math’s setup speccing here really helping anyone. It just makes it easier for scum to play around.

[Ircher]

Of mutant is scum here, consider me overly impressed. I have never seen him look townier!

What???? 95% of his posts deal with setup spec which is NAI at best.

[Ircher]

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and cars to argue back with facts.

Point me to the multiple reads he made. I didn’t see them.

[Ircher]

also why no interest in the 4s and 5s?

That would be because you're not reading what I'm typing, perhaps?

fuck off, man

you know as well as i do that scum is not literally {1, 2, 3}

why is iconeum MORE likely to be scum than TW? why lynch in increasing order?

and since we know scum is not {1, 2, 3}, that confirms someone as scum outside that group. going by your logic, that would heavily implicate a 4 or 5.

your theory at its most basic makes sense -- there's scum in the low numbers. obviously.

but you don't seem to be acting in a way that's actually in line with you having thought through your draft-based setup spec.

Your argument is an argument of WIFOM: there is nothing preventing scum from doing 1-2-3 by ththey can. And I don’t necessarily consider that bad either.

[Ircher]

that they're a great motivation to stop people from

- making shit votes with 0 reasoning

- self-voting in lylo?

Just leave please.

[Ircher]

have you been shot by a vigilante in this setup after getting cop cleared, jailkept, neighborized, and roleblocked?

no?

towns are stupid, i don't trust them

i will setup spec all i damn well please

I’ve never played this setup before; in fact, this like my 2nd game in the open queue (and the 1st one I replaced out of).
Pedit: I need time to fully sort genuine scumreads. I comment on things that I 1) feel confident about and 2) stick out to me. Most of the scum hunting that has taken place doesn’t really stick out. On the other hand, the setup spec does.

[Ircher]

In my history with Beefster I have seen

- town Beefster take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and generally correctly conclude that he's coming from the right angle
- scum Beefster not take the time to process Math's INTENSE LOGIC EXPLOSIONS and suggest he's scum for them

Actual read progression/flip flopping in Earthbound is the only transgression I can think of

So my

firsr impeession

of Beef is

lolscum

, what makes you townread him?

I do strongly consider meta, but are you really confident enough with your meta read to call Beef “lockscum”?

careful with wording there (fml i can't spell)
1. first impression sod1
2. lolscum is a first impression read, 'lockscum' is something I pretty much only use mechanically

Sorry, I genuinely read it as lockscum; now I see it is lockscum and that makes more sense.

[Ircher]

i don't even know what to say to players like you

on page fucking 1 and 2, in which half the players hadn't posted yet, yes i'm going to focus on the information i have available to me

my reads are clearly independent of my setup spec, which only INFORMS my reads

you don't know the meaning of WIFOM. scum does not send in draft numbers in this setup to fake town out, they send it to rob town of PRs and get good PRs when possible

so talk to me in specifics instead of trashing everything i have to say

do you think 2 scum would pick the same number to fake out town? if so, who in this setup would do so? i already discussed this possibility
do you think scum would pick all high numbers, essentially guaranteeing town gets the cop?
do you think scum would pick {1, 2, 3}?

1) Same number —- No. That accomplished nothing; risk much greater than reward
2) All high numbers — Possible but they do risk getting locked out of certain roles
3) 123 — Absolutely! Explain why not—There may be a duplicate, but given your feelings on the matter, I feel that risk is justified.

It’s not simply a matter of nullifying everything you said. It’s just hard to figure where your reads are and why because there is so much setup spec intermixed.

Pedit: Math - Lean Scum; too much setup spec, hard to follow reads
Mutant - Neutral Scum; again, a lot of setup spec and not much in reads.
Taly - Lean Town - Liked the post they made
Almost50 - Null town - Nothing really notable to say here
Beefster - Null Scum - Hard to say; I know Almost50 townread here and math wants to PL; I remember most of Beefs posts being pretty lackluster
SIMYK - Likely Town - I like your posts in general and participation so far
Janitor - Neutral scum - Bunch of non-reads but hard to say that they have a high chance of being scum
Iconeum - Null Scum - Can’t remember anything significant from them other than a general scum vibe

[Ircher]

guys it doesn't make any sense for beefster to be lying

he'd just get fucked in massclaim

i doubt scum-him gets jailkeeper and thinks "oh boy lemme just pretend to be a VT instead of using my claim as a get out of jail free card later"

beefster is almost certainly vanilla

wouldn't mind if he ate vig tbh

Edit: you're in luck because lovebird is town

1. How is Lovebird town?
2. Didn’t you want to PL Beefster earlier?

1. i don't think your question is in good faith so i'm not answering that

2. how is that inconsistent with what i'm saying here

"beefster isn't lying" doesn't mean "beefster is town"
it just means beefster is probably actually vanilla and didn't get his tracker/jailkeeper pick

1) What makes you think 1) isn’t in good faith?
2) Fair enough I guess

[Ircher]

then that's your fault, not mine

because i've been doing loads of genuine scumhunting, and there's always those 2 or 3 players that laser focus on my setup spec for whatever reason

my entire thing on this site is breaking setups, i've broken 3 opens before

put your money where your mouth is -- if you want people to talk more about reads and less about setup, do it yourself

1) I highly doubt this setup is breakable primarily due to swing
2) You’ve done genuine scum hunting, but it is hard to follow when I going through linearly; furthermore, a lot of it is obscured by your setup speccing
3) That is true; real issue is I honestly don’t have much in terms of reads right now.
Pedit: I think part of the issue is understanding how I catch up. I’m not spending 2 minutes scrutinizing each post; I read through and if I find something I feel is worth commenting on, I do so. Again, the interspersing of setup spec and reads makes it hard to follow; also, my memory is decent but I don’t always pay attn well; quotes help in that respect.

[Ircher]

Oh shit Fast-ass game.

Multiple things I picked up through half-skim/half-reading. ((I'm going to reread later, though))

1)

I've seen everyone here before

{Almost50, Brassherald, Ausuka}

the most.

{Lalendra, Ircher, Mathdino, Lovebird, the worst, Iconeum}

to a lower degree.
I've seen the rest of the playerlist once or twice:

{mutant, Beefster, Simyk, The Janitor}

2)

Math

, can you explain to me your analysis of the draft in depth? It's NAI for someone to try and get a PR because it helps the alignment of the person it's under. I mostly play games where I'm more likely to get a PR than not. This is a preference, not an AI thing, unless I'm misinterpreting your post.

Honestly, I pre-planned the number I was going to send to the Mod BEFORE the full playerlist even signed up.

-

I didn't think to send a number higher than 10 because I had no clue what other people would do.

-

I figured since

{1, 2, 3}

were more likely to be repeated, and

{8, 9, 10}

were a bit too high, I went with the lowest in

{

4

, 5, 6, 7}

I'm actively working to be NKed due to loud AF gamesolving, so that's how that went...

3)

204 I don't see this coming from scum, pretty bold, and I see

the worst

is asking questions and making assessments.

Early townlean

4)

21

Lovebird

, you stated that the people on page 1 are town, can you provide some reasoning, and has that changed for you?

5)

Can people explain their reads to me on

Beefster

? Honestly, I like 16 of him, I don't see much benefit in discussing setup extremely early, I think that's likely to cause WIFOM later and this post tells me he's aware of too much information being spewed would end up hurting the town later.

6)

i have 5 reads already

- Talk to me about them, it hasn't been a full 24 hours yet so the quick 9 pages are fuzzy to me.

7)

138 I'm not fond of this post, you quoted

the worst

several times and then didn't really elaborate on your thoughts or engage with questions, I don't see your thought process.

VOTE: Iconeum

I may be unresponsive for the most, if not the rest of the day; I don't know yet. In either case, if I'm unavailable now, I'll be more active later. If I remain active, then I'll be keeping a medium standard.

I'm not in a good frame of mind for Mafia. X_X

Also, some of you already know this, but detailing your thoughts with questions and organizing them when you're posing them to me is the best way for me to get my thoughts out there and for worthwhile engagement.

#1: I like the formatting
2) I like the questions and angle being taken here
3) I like the fairly clear presentation of reads
4) A lot of thought was put into this post
5) It just registers a town vibe for me.

[Ircher]

how do you read me (besides adorable)?

You’ve apparently posted much more than I remembered originally. A very quick glance at the iso (as I had a Null read 2 minutes ago) says you are lean town because of what you’ve posted about.
Pedit: I mean, scum do gain from being hard to follow because then they can be more width-washy about their reads. But in a way, you are right; I need to re-evaluate my read on you but it’s late right now, so I don’t have time atm.
UNVOTE: for now.

Pedit2: I mean tbh, it probably does play some role.

[Ircher]

I do it because of the medium I play on; did I ever tell you all my posts so far were made on a phone? Anyway, I think I’m going to sleep soon.

[Ircher]

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and cars to argue back with facts.

Point me to the multiple reads he made. I didn’t see them.

Where does he mention me making multiple reads?

If anything, he's complimenting my lack of focus on reads.

It was suggested by the wording but was not explicitly stated. Regardless if MathBlade hates this catch-up style, I’m still doing it because it is what I am used to doing.

[Ircher]

That’s super irrelevant; when did you think I thought MathDino was MathBlade?

[Ircher]

That’s super irrelevant; when did you think I thought MathDino was MathBlade?

When you called him MathBlade?

Ah, that might have been a stupid auto-correct issue.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: My Reevaluation of the First 200 Posts

First round draft results:
Iconeum 1
the worst 3
Lalendra 5
Ircher 11
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413
Mathdino 2
The Janitor 2
Beefster 4
Taly 4
Almost50 8
mutantdevle 8
Ausuka 6
Lovebird 6
brassherald 6

1. 11 by Mathdino:

Okay, this is setup-spec obviously, and no real reads are given here. (Null)

2. 14 by Mathdino: States that "Lovebird is town" and already has a "townbloc" of {MathDino, Lovebird, Saske). -

Okay, Lovebird has made one post so far: voting math and asking why they picked two. Please explain how that makes them town? Also, Saske has not even posted yet, yet somehow, Saske finds their way into Math's townbloc list? How? I guess this all goes back to the draft and the setup spec, but I'm still uncomfortable with the way this reads. (Oh, just noticed--Math said that Saske was town based on the draft, though I'm not convinced that is true based on Saske's position in the draft.) (Null leaning scum)

3. 16 by Beefster: Claims VT and says they picked Tracker in draft; also votes Math for role fishing -

As I've already stated, I'm not a huge fan of the heavy emphasis Math has placed on setup spec early in the game, yet despite that bias, I don't agree with Beefster here that Math is actively role fishing. Bad vote imo, and if you were serious about the claim, I don't know what to say... (

Neutral leaning scum

).

4. 17 by Mathdino: Says vote on Beefster is now policy -

Fair enough. (Null)

5. 21 by Lovebird: "Everyone so far is town" -

Elaborate please? (Null)

6. 23 by The Worst: Says Dino was lurking, votes Beefster, and asks (presumably Beefster) if they got their role pm -

Where does the lurking part come from? Before I get accused of asking that not in good faith, I am serious--no one mentioned lurking, so I don't understand what you are implying here. Not sure what to make of the end of the post tbqh. (Null leaning scum)

7. 33 by Mathdino: "less fluff more analysis" -

More analysis of what? Of the setup? It seems to me that you have already done that for the most part. (Null)

8. 36 through 39 by SIMYK and Mathdino:

Is it just me (probably is), or does this feel a bit on the staged side. (Null)

9. 48 by The Worst: Meta read on Beefster -

Fair enough. (Null leaning town)

10. 50 by The Worst: "Scum rb overrated" -

Try telling that to the normal review group; it was shown in the past that at least for normal games, scum roleblocker games generally had a lower winrate than games without them. That may not be relevant at all to this game though. (Null)

11. 53 by SIMYK: Some concise info on why she thinks Beefster is town -

I find this to be a fair point, but at the same time, what does town!Beefster gain from doing such? Not much... Perhaps NAI at best, but I wouldn't townread Beefster for his 16. (Null leaning town)

12. 70 by SIMYK:

Okay, so SIMYK started the whole Beefster and jailkeeper discussion... (Null)

13. 74 by Almost50: More about Beefster and some questions about why SIMYK is pursuing the town!Beefster read so aggressively:

I agree that the perceived strength of the townread is a bit strong in light of what I've seen so far. That said, I don't consider the read really as odd, and as I stated earlier, I believe strongly in meta, but I will not die by it. In other words, I think it would be better if the thread stops pursuing as many setup/meta-related reads and give a bit more in terms of reads based on the content so far, which I honestly have not seen much of. (Null)

14. 75 by Almost50: Suggests that those who didn't get their picks claim their draft choices -

As others have noted, this is a really bad idea. I include this here however not for that reason alone but rather because I townread the post as I don't think scum would be as inclined to make such a suggestion.

(Neutral leaning town)

15. 82 by Mathdino: Some things about how he setup specs and about Pick Your Power X/Y as well -

This is being nitpickey, but I don't think my earlier assessment of what you've done all game was all that far off tbh. So far, the only thing besides discussing the setup that I have seen you do is advocate a policy lynch (of all things) on Beefster, although the reasoning behind said PL push weren't too bad. Granted also that everyone else doesn't seem to be doing much in terms of generating reads either. (Null leaning scum)

16. 85 by The Worst: "are scum not chosen randomly?" -

I just want to know, exactly what were you thinking when you asked that question. I see you obviously retracted it very quickly, but again, where did the idea that scum were not chosen randomly originate from? Or was it really, truly just a thing you randomly came up with on the spur of the moment? (Null)

17. 92 by Mathdino: Fake advertisement for Pick Your Power X/Y where mod chooses the mafia -

I'm biased against Mathdino, and it shows. But still, people have to understand where I am coming from. You can joke around and all, that's fine. But I get the feeling you are avoiding scumhunting because you can. Like, you were very wordy the first page or 2, but then you kinda vanished only to pop in to post things that are not very helpful in advancing the game state. Is it truly as unfair of me as has been suggested to see you as doing much more setup speccing than scumhunting? (Null)

18. 102 by Mathdino: Another setup spec post, this time about probability of being scum based on draft -

My point exactly... (Null)

19. 105 by Janitor: Complains about 5 pages overnight and unsure of SIMYK being town this early -

I seriously don't like this post, on a gut level. On a logical level, I kinda actually agree with it if I understand the context that Janitor made this post in correctly.

(Neutral Leaning Scum)

20. 111 by Janitor:

Okay, if you were aware of SIMYK's contribution level when you made 105, why did you imply that SIMYK was not really town? Asking why the draft makes SIMYK town is fine, but it really did feel like shade throwing back then, and this post kinda reinforces that sentiment.

(Neutral leaning scum)

21. 115 by SIMYK: "Do you think Mathdino townreading me for what seems like SHAKY reasoning to you is SCUMMY? Or just MISGUIDED?" -

Really like this line of reasoning.

(Neutral leaning town)

22. 118 by Mathdino: "I have 5 reads already" -

I'm not sure I saw 5 reads, especially not 5 substantial reads. You wanted to PL Beefster for his claim though I would suspect you scumread him to some degree there. I feel like you have a pretty confident scumread currently on Janitor. You had a townread on Lovebird.... but I don't think that one counts. I guess you have more substantial townread on SIMYK than your early draft-related read... And that is all that I can think of so far, and that was not 5 reads I just named. That said, I like the points you bring up against Janitor in the rest of your post.

(Neutral leaning town)

23. 120 by Janitor: "As I said I'm more null" -

Umm.... I don't think I actually got the impression you thought SIMYK is null; far from scumread means (at least to me) a townread (even if a weak one). (Null leaning scum)

24. 123 by Mathdino:

This is also a good post. Now you are starting to present some good reads... (Null leaning town)

25. 131 by SIMYK:

On a totally off-topic side-note, I have to look at your name every time to make sure I spell the abbreviation correctly; it would be much easier just to type the first word of your name. Okay, back to something more relevant, I agree with what you state here. (Null)

26. 133 by Mathdino: "You're in luck because lovebird is town" -

Yeah, being 100% serious here, please elaborate on this. If this is based on the draft, please explain why this continues to be such a strong townread for you. If it is not based on the draft, again, please explain why Lovebird is town. (Null)

27. 136 by Janitor: "I don't find Mathdino's actions scummy" -

What I don't understand is why you are being a bit on the fence with things. Do you not possess other, more strong reads? (Null leaning scum)

28. 138 by Iconeum:

"I don't like this, I don't like this..." Okay, I probably (almost certainly) did basically the same thing, but just find it a bit strange for this post to be simply "I don't like these posts" without any particular reasons why. (Null)

29. 158 by SIMYK: "HOWEVER with that vote you arent realy convincing me of that" -

What was wrong with the vote? (Null)

30. 163 by SIMYK: "But what I mean is asking about MATH-SENSEI'S methodology. You EXPLICITYLY said you were NOT townreading and NOT scumreading it, and only found it WEIRD. Have you made any progress in DECIDING what seems more likely to you?" -

Basically sums up where I am at currently with Janitor. (Null leaning town)

31. 165 by Iconeum: Suggests that Math's scumread might have to do with Iconeum being a PR -

Obviously, I cannot say for MathDino... but, I don't think that is the case. Your post definitely wasn't spectacular, and I'll leave it at that. (Null leaning scum)

32. 168 by Iconeum: Saske is strongest townread, scumreading A50 til big post, and Beef's opening was town -

Um... Not sure I follow with that third read... What about it read as town? (Null)

33. 178 by Iconeum: Case on The Janitor -

Yep, I basically agree with this case. (Null leaning town)

34. 196 by Janitor:

Yet another useless post.... (Null leaning scum)

​​

Spoiler: Reads to Post 25

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(-10%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here.

The Worst

(-15%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there?

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 75

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+10%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(-10%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here.

The Worst

(-25%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there? Still really hard to get a read here--he's definitely in the thread, but I cannot really point at him having contributed that much tbh.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+31%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt.

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 125

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+10%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(-5%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far.

The Worst

(-25%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there? Still really hard to get a read here--he's definitely in the thread, but I cannot really point at him having contributed that much tbh.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+40%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt. 115 really strikes me as town tbqh.

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-60%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111).

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Janitor

[yessiree]

Whoops, also forgot my reads to post 200:
​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+5%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads...

Ausuka

(+2%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Mathdino

(0%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+55%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt. 115 really strikes me as town tbqh. Now the posts are beginning to make me really lean toward town.

Iconeum

(+35%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

The Worst

(-32%) - I really don't like how 23 reads... Maybe I'm just reading in a bit too much there? Still really hard to get a read here--he's definitely in the thread, but I cannot really point at him having contributed that much tbh. Yeah, definitely not comfortable with this slot at the moment...

Beefster

(-40%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). It is also early game, so as of right now, this is my strongest read.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-70%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Fixed tags.

[Ircher]

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

Why the plural? I'm only not reading one of them because it's blatantly too long. I started reading it and saw that he was simply quoting every other post and describing it as null. What do I gain from reading that? I CTRL+F ed my own name to see if there was anything I need to address and there wasn't. There's nothing in that post (as far as I'm aware) that addresses my stance.

Honestly, when I look at a post like that I just think about Irchers own view:

I mean, scum do gain from being hard to follow because then they can be more width-washy about their reads.

That is because that only covered the first 200 posts of thread which you really didn't post in.

tl;dr of ircher's reads list: i am going to summarise why 80% of the posts in this game are null and then give a reads list in which 80% of the players are null

I don't think this is a fair representation of my readlist. Yes, I have a good number of players in the null and neutral areas, but unlike most people's reads, I am more conservative about giving super confident reads. Also, if you actually took the time to read the 2nd spoiler about how to read the reads list, you would understand that my neutral reads != my null reads, and that my neutral reads actually do lean toward one side or the other rather than being completely in the middle.

Done. All that stands out is the poor use of the colour yellow.

The readslist looks fine on MafBlack though I admit I am not quite sure how it looks on other themes. Still, you could just quote it and look at it without the color, but again, I understand that takes additional effort that I myself probably wouldn't do tbh.

Ircher are you NORMALLY this self-conscious about HOW people perceive your pushes? It is exacerbatingly excruciatingly exceptionally DIFFICULT for me to see how you are INTERACTING with Mathdino in any other way ┐|￣_￣✿|┌

I would say yes, I'm pretty self-conscious in general both about the way people perceive me and also about my reads and the amount of bias I may have.

holy balls did he actually say that

lynch this please, this slot is either dangerously bad or scum

Yes, I did state that. And, honestly, I'm not sure what the issue with it is?

Honestly I EMPATHIZE with how Math is reacting to Ircher and don't think it's scummy in an IDENTICAL manner A50-hannin/me INTERACTIONS are ._.

Neither of them townread each other and Ircher's reasons are RIDICULOUS at best （￣へ￣）

Did you even read the final reads list? You would've noted that 0% => Null => Completely mixed. That doesn't exactly qualify as a scumread, and you don't need exceptional reasons really to not townread a person.

[Ircher]

I wanna say town A50 can self-vote, but I don't have any specific games to reference; more of a possible vague connection.
Pedit: Well, A50 linked a game.....

[Ircher]

I don't think this is a fair representation of my readlist. Yes, I have a good number of players in the null and neutral areas, but unlike most people's reads, I am more conservative about giving super confident reads. Also, if you actually took the time to read the 2nd spoiler about how to read the reads list, you would understand that my neutral reads != my null reads, and that my neutral reads actually do lean toward one side or the other rather than being completely in the middle.

that's a matter of semantics, and is irrelevant to actions that affect the game

a reads list isn't some hyper complicated way of viewing each individual's probabilities of being scum

it should be either an action bringing the game further to a solution

or a preamble to other actions (like wagoning or defending) that move the game along

your reads list was just as useless. you don't seem to really care about solving or moving the game.

But at this point, you are as biased against me as I am against you. I always do my reads that way (when I'm not doing them in a hurry). It is somewhat complicated, maybe more so than necessary. But that aside, you cannot say that I don't seem to care about solving or moving the game along. Just because I present a different perspective (which, for all I know, may actually be really bad, but that's beyond the point) and/or don't have killer reads does not at all mean I don't care about advancing or moving the game along. And no, I disagree of your interpretation of a readslist; a reads list is just that, presenting your reads. It definitely doesn't need to be a preamble to some other action (though it can be), and it doesn't necessarily have to bring the game closer to a solution (though it would be better if it did). It is a way of articulating one's current perspective of the game.

Did you even read the final reads list? You would've noted that 0% => Null => Completely mixed. That doesn't exactly qualify as a scumread, and you don't need exceptional reasons really to not townread a person.

That's NOT what I'm talking about (;¬_ლ)

If you have a PLAYER at 0% in your READLIST then it IS LOGICAL that you interact with them the way you are with Math-sensei ┐(￣ヘ￣)┌

Also OKAY... I will make sure that Ausuka-chan backs you up and then REREAD your posts with that in mind (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

Do you mean before I made that post? Before then, I was mostly scumreading Math fyi but then I decided to reevaluate by reading again from the beginning.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: And the remainder of my reevaluation of the game to present (post 519)

1. 202 by Iconeum: Says that Janitor commented on things that were NAI (and thus do not stand out to him) -

For the record, I disagree with the idea that things that are not alignment-indicative do not stand out; actually, the things that stand out the most are generally NOT alignment indicative despite what people think. That said, I agree with the general reasoning provided here. (Null)

2. 214 by Iconeum: Responding to Janitor, says that it's okay not to have reads yet -

You know, I get the feeling that is not true. But regardless, the point being brought up is pretty valid. (Null)

3. 218 by Taly:

So let me go over why I like this post again. First of all, the nice formatting is always nice, but that really is not alignment indicative. So what else is there? Clear questions, presents some reads and clearly explains them, and in general, the post really registers as having a townvibe. Perhaps I overrate the post, but I still think it is more likely a town post than a scum post. (

Neutral leaning town

)

4. 220 by Beefster: A thing about Math's setup spec, a townread on the worst, and postulates a Janitor/SIMYK scum team and votes Janitor -

Okay, I get the townread on the worst, and I can see the scumread on Janitor (though it would be nice if you were more explicit). So, first and foremost, why do you think SIMYK/Janitor may be a scumteam? I would presume that you do scumread SIMYK to some degree, and it is that part that I would like for you to explain. The other thing is your first line of the post--I'm honestly not sure what to make of that? As in, what should I be interpreting that as meaning? (Null leaning scum)[/b]

5. 227 to 235 and 237 to 244 by mutantdevle:

Aside from your two "I need to catch up posts", your first several posts deal almost exclusively with the setup and the draft and without anything to do with some kind of read one way or another. I don't necessarily consider that a good thing, and tbqh, it is actually a good way to look like town as scum. I'll have to see though if this trend continues, or if this is just part of your catch-up which you seem to be doing sequentially like I normally do. (

Leaning Scum

)

6. 249 by mutantdevle: We are presented with some reads, specifically a scumread (due to a vote) on Janitor and townreads on Math, SIMYK, and Icon -

Okay, now we have some reads, and tbf, it probably is hard to just point at one or two things to explain your townreads and scumreads. Still, I think these reads are very easy reads to make at this point in the game. (Null)

7. 255 by SIMYK: Case on Almost50 -

I don't think the points made are bad, but at the same time, I don't think all of them are necessarily indicative of alignment. No, I'm not elaborating here. (Null)

8. 261 by Almost50: Overly impressed by mutant's towniness -

Say what? I definitely didn't get that impression from mutant; what am I missing? (Null)

9. 263 by Almost50: Mutant is actually presenting info -

I also disagree with this assessment. The info Mutant gave were some very terse reads (most having no explanation) and a bunch of posts about the setup. The latter really isn't that alignment indicative, especially not indicative of town imo. (Null)

10. 270 by Lovebird: Quotes a post from Iconeum (129 where Ico votes A50 for being salty) and simply states "scummy" -

Wasn't that an RVS vote (even if well beyond the real RVS stage)? Anyway, if this is a serious read, how is it scummy? (Null leaning scum)

11. 273 by Lovebird: Some kind of case on Ausuka -

Hi, I'm going to need you to do more than simply quote and say something is scummy/not scummy. Though I assume this is how you typically play... (Null)

12. 277 by Lovebird: Responds to Taly and says that her initial statement that the people so far were town was because they were towny (when asked to elaborate) -

That does not answer the question... (Null leaning scum)

Okay, and that is everything up to when I started posting pretty much, so there you have it!

Some other things:
1) Ausuka is more likely to be town for actually considering to reevaluate their read on me; I just don't see scum letting such an opportunity pass them by.

2) Almost50 is more likely town tbqh after the stunt they just pulled

3) Mathdino and I are never going to see eye-to-eye this game, and I honestly don't think it is worth my time trying to get some read on them.

4) The Worst fluffs a good bit (not necessarily in a bad/scummy way) but does make the occassional good observation or two

5) I mainly consider meta in terms of reading players; I don't care as much about setup meta

6) I think someone townread Janitor for 406? I don't agree with that; some of it addresses setup spec, some of it is just joking around, and a very small portion has some relation to reads. I don't necessarily scumread the post, but I wouldn't immediately jump from a scumread to a townread based on the post alone either.

7) In response to 415: what is wrong with focusing on other people's reads? In particular, I cannot read you based on nothing, and in my opinion, your reads and the reasons behind them are the best route.

8) Taly brings up a really good point in 416. I'm not repeating it--read it yourself.

9) In regards to Ausuka's ability to read me--she does a very good job in the game we've played together, though I'm not sure how much she factored in the game state with her initial read; some games (like this one) are really hard to get good reads in

10) 432 is purely antitown

11) 434 and 435 by The Worst are pretty good

12) An additional comment to 483:

Semantics matter

13) I don't think I understand SIMYK in 503 (the top part)... It seems opposite of what I was expecting them to say...

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 250

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+5%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads...

Ausuka

(+2%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here.

Lalendra

(+1%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet.

Mathdino

(0%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here.

Lovebird

(-5%) - Two posts so far. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+55%) - Not so sure here as I was when I gave reads earlier. Main thing to note is the strength of the townread on Beefster; seems a bit on the strong side. Still, I am in favor of her thinking pattern in general so I will give her the benefit of the doubt. 115 really strikes me as town tbqh. Now the posts are beginning to make me really lean toward town.

Taly

(+45%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218.

Iconeum

(+35%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

The Worst

(+32%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor.

Mutantdevle

(-38%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment.

Beefster

(-55%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-70%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 300

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+60%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Almost50

(+10%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads...

Ausuka

(+2%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here.

Lalendra

(+1%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet.

Mathdino

(0%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here. Okay, to be quite honest, it will probably be impossible for me to get a good read here, so I think I'm just gonna leave it at that.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Taly

(+45%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218.

Iconeum

(+35%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

The Worst

(+32%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor.

Lovebird

(-31%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-38%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment.

Beefster

(-55%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-70%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

​

Spoiler: Reads to post 519

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+60%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Lalendra

(+1%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet.

Brassherald

(0%) - No comment as of now (i.e.: no read)

Mathdino

(0%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here. Okay, to be quite honest, it will probably be impossible for me to get a good read here, so I think I'm just gonna leave it at that. (i.e.: mixed, inreconcilable read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Taly

(+55%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416

The Worst

(+50%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Iconeum

(+44%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

Almost50

(+40%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads... I townread the self-voting shenanigans even if that isn't necessarily alignment indicative in general...

Ausuka

(+31%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here. I'd also like to note that the fact they are willing to reconsider whether I am scum is probably town-motivated; I don't really see scum missing the golden opportunity that is wagoning me.

Lovebird

(-31%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-38%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment.

Beefster

(-55%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-70%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

Ircher do you comprehend what I mean when I say that someone is talking TO someone but not WITH someone? ( ´･ш･)

Yes and no.

[Ircher]

Ircher do you comprehend what I mean when I say that someone is talking TO someone but not WITH someone? ( ´･ш･)

Yes and no.

Can you ELABORATE what confuses you then? I think understanding what I mean will help you understand my point from earlier Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑)

The problem is primarily one of context; you stated one thing yet what you stated next seem to be opposite of what I was expecting. I don't know if this helps you any more...

[Ircher]

Ah, that makes more sense now; thank you.

[Ircher]

Mathdino, I would appreciate it if you meta-dived me, or at least glanced at my wiki page.

[Ircher]

No, I simply wanted you to be aware of my game history. The meta dive was just suggested in case you considered actually making comparisons to this!me and past!me yourself. (But in a way, yes, my wiki page is accurate statistics' wise, so maybe it should be something you should consider.)

[Ircher]

5. 227 to 235 and 237 to 244 by mutantdevle: Aside from your two "I need to catch up posts", your first several posts deal almost exclusively with the setup and the draft and without anything to do with some kind of read one way or another. I don't necessarily consider that a good thing, and tbqh, it is actually a good way to look like town as scum. I'll have to see though if this trend continues, or if this is just part of your catch-up which you seem to be doing sequentially like I normally do. (Leaning Scum)

If you're going to consider setup spec as scummy

Then you may as well lock scum me now.


The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

Setup spec is not intrinsicly scummy;

however

, doing it exclusively IS for multiple reasons

including

being able to easily “look town” as scum (scum can do a very good job, more so generally than townies with setup spec) and while a few things we’ve done with setup spec increases our chances of winning (I’m primarily referring to MathDino’s argument that scum would not choose the same draft number), the majority of it at this stage are simply conjectures that we really cannot act on at this stage of the game; I.e.: the emphasis should be more on reads and scumhunting and less on breaking the setup and finding associative.

[Ircher]

VC 1.8

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

The Janitor (3) - Iconeum, Beefster, Ircher
Ircher (3) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Mathdino, mutantdevle,
Lalendra (3) - Ausuka, the worst, Taly
Ausuka (2) - Lovebird, brassherald
Iconeum (1) - Almost50

Not voting - Lalendra, The Janitor

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-05-15 21:01:53)

I'm sorry, but I do not think this kind of game state is really helping anyone... We should reduce the number of wagons so we can get some info BEFORE the end of the day.

[Ircher]

280:
The Janitor (5) - Mathdino, Almost50, Iconeum, Beefster, mutantdevle

No real counterwagons; there is I guess Almost50 with 2 votes (SYMIK andd Brass) that was at three votes at the 228 votecount.

481:
The Janitor (4) - Almost50, Iconeum, Beefster, Ircher
Ircher (3) - SYMIK, Mathdino, mutantdevle

Also want to note that The Worst and Ausuka were on my wagon at some point between 218 and 418.

Janitor's wagon has been around for quite some time, and never really dissolved.

582:
The Janitor (3) - Iconeum, Beefster, Ircher
Ircher (3) - SYMIK, Mathdino, mutantdevle,
Lalendra (3) - Ausuka, the worst, Taly
Ausuka (2) - Lovebird, brassherald

Iconeum (1) - Almost50/davesaz

Not voting - Lalendra, The Janitor

So basically, there are no clear scumreads at this point and the game is basically at a standstill.

We have The Janitor wagon which has basically been here the entire game, and I don't think anyone has even once tried to derail the wagon directly. That kinda makes me uncomfortable about the wagon. I'm fine with Iconeum on the wagon but not so sure about Beefster.

Next, we have my wagon. I'm pretty sure Mathdino and mutant are not going to be moving off it anytime soon and while they do scumread me, I'm not sure how much is based off a general scum vibe from me and how much is because they did not like my entrance (not my first post but the subsequent ones) and do not like my personality/playstyle.

Then, we have the Lalendra wagon. At least two players that I more or less townread are on it... But I'm not sure if it will get anywhere. Like, I agree that Lalendra hasn't done much, but what is this wagon accomplishing?

Okay, now I find the Ausuka wagon a bit weird. Like, both Lovebird and brassherald haven't been in the game thread that much, and they seem quite comfortable on a wagon that hasn't and probably isn't going to go anywhere. Lovebird has been on it since 280, when a lot of people were on The Janitor's wagon. Brassherald joined by 418 (which is admittedly a wide gap, but I do think that is around the time Brass started posting). They haven't moved off it since, and I don't think they have done a huge job of articulating exactly why they are on it to begin with.

It is also puzzling why Almost50 switched from voting themselves earlier to voteparking (perhaps the wrong word to use--too strong--but I'm using anyway) on Iconeum. I'm pretty sure around 60%-70% of the thread has expressed a strong disapproval of lynching Iconeum in general on D1, so I'm quite confident that I can say that this wagon is going nowhere. I'll have to go back, find, and reread the post where A50 switches vote though to see why they joined.

Finally, we have Lalendra and The Janitor not voting. Did lalendra ever express any kind of weekend V/LA (I mean, I would ask the same of brassherald, but they are at least voting) because there lack of presence is quite noticable. I feel they ought to have some kind of opinion by this point in the game. I know The Janitor has reads, and they have been working at catch up... But again, why are you not voting at the present time? I feel like I ought to give The Janitor the benefit of the doubt though--maybe they have been spending so much time catching up that they have not been able to spend some time to really consolidate their reads.

[Ircher]

I am almost certain Mathdino expressed discomfort (primarily for setup-related reasons, but that's beyond the point), and I'm pretty sure that someone else did as well, but maybe I am wrong in that respect.

[Ircher]

Activity Overview as of 6:36 PM EDT on May 6:

the worst May 03, 08:27pm May 06, 06:23pm 0 days 0 hours 110
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis May 03, 10:10pm May 05, 11:28pm 0 days 19 hours 95
Mathdino May 03, 08:28pm May 06, 06:56am 0 days 11 hours 92
Almost50 May 03, 08:40pm May 06, 01:36pm 0 days 4 hours 73
mutantdevle May 04, 12:51pm May 06, 04:49pm 0 days 1 hour 61
Ircher May 04, 07:15am May 06, 06:35pm 0 days 0 hours 42
The Janitor May 04, 01:29am May 06, 05:49pm 0 days 0 hours 28
Lovebird May 03, 08:26pm May 06, 02:53pm 0 days 3 hours 24
Iconeum May 04, 01:54am May 04, 01:37pm 2 days 4 hours 20
yessiree Apr 30, 10:26am May 06, 06:14pm 0 days 0 hours 20
brassherald May 03, 08:42pm May 05, 09:11am 1 day 9 hours 13
Ausuka May 04, 02:34am May 06, 02:53pm 0 days 3 hours 12
Taly May 04, 08:35am May 06, 10:15am 0 days 8 hours 9
davesaz May 06, 03:13pm May 06, 06:21pm 0 days 0 hours 6
Lalendra May 04, 12:09pm May 04, 04:58pm 2 days 1 hour 6
Beefster May 03, 08:37pm May 06, 03:24pm 0 days 3 hours 3

Well, this is certainly interesting. First off, (and this really isn't that relevant to the game), my post count is a bit lower than I expected (in comparison to the people with the most posts). Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that The Janitor has the next most posts after me. Yeah, I'm really starting to think that lynching the Janitor is something scum wants to happen--no real counterwagons, not a whole lot of opposition, and honestly, not too hard to make a decent case against the Janitor.

So what other stuff does this overview tell us? Well, Beefster, despite having the least number of posts in the thread, seems to have quite a prominent profile. It is really strange, but I think that has to do with his opening post--it was quite notable.

Next, with the second least number of posts are Lalendra and davesaz (who just replaced in, so again, not very surprising). I definitely want more from Lalendra.

Taly has only 9 posts, but most of those posts were longer, so I see no real issue there.
Ausuka has 12 posts, and it would probably help if they had a few more, but they have expressed some notable views, so their activity is fine.

Moving on, we have brassherald with 13 posts. That makes sense--they made a lot of posts in sequence I think at one point and then kinda vanished. Like Lalendra, I really want more from them, and not just more posts--more content as well.

Iconeum has 20 posts, and I think they were V/LA so that's fine. They were fairly active in the early game.

Lovebird has 24 posts, and almost none of them really help me in determining their alignment. That is however primarily a playstyle issue; they do not seem to like to give many explanations for their reads, and it is acceptable I guess (as long as others can read them) even if it is not something I prefer.

Everyone else is pretty much fine as far as activity and content goes.

Yeah, I think I'm really starting to prefer the Lalendra wagon over The Janitor right now...
VOTE: Lalendra

[Ircher]

Any other thoughts right now, brassherald? Specifically, some reads?

[Ircher]

Code: Select all

A VOICE BOOMS FROM ABOVE.

IT SAYS:

"THOU SHALT NOT LYNCH
THAT WHICH CAN BE REPLACED"

Just because something can be replaced doesn't mean one should do nothing before then. And Lalendra is no where close to being lynched atm.

[Ircher]

1.

Lalendra flaking out is not correlated with her alignment guys

Likely true, but The Janitor has had a wagon forever and never had a counterwagon to it, making me a bit suspicious. Obviously, I am not voting myself. And tbqh, Lalendra isn't a bad vote considering the game state.

2. The Worst posts a case on Lalendra in 635 --> I support this case.

3. 636 by Mathdino: Quotes a post from Lalendra in another game --> Okay, but how does that counter The Worst case which is basically showing that every post Lalendra has made this game not only doesn't take a side, but also have almost zero value to anyone. (Actually, I find this post a bit on the suspicious side esp. when combined with 621; it feels like an active attempt to derail a wagon without compelling reason (at least imo) why.)

4. 646 are reads by Iconeum --> Lots of townreads, probably leaning a bit more on the town side cuz of that but not much else to comment there.

5. 650: Iconeum asks why The Janitor has stopped being the focus of discussion --> Multiple reasons: 1) I think he did step up his game some since his opening. Not much, but a decent degree to shift focus elsewhere some 2) At its height, Janitor's wagon had no counterwagons; that's not a good sign. 3) Another VC related reason--Janitor's wagon has existed practically the entire game

6. In 655, Iconeum believes we are exaggerating the scumminess of some of Lalendra posts --> Probably true, but when they only have six or so posts (I can't remember the number), there is not much to go by, now is there? I think (see The Worst's case in 635) that the fact that none of Lalendra's posts really had any relevance to solving the game in any way is pretty tell-tale sign. Add to that Mathdino's aggressive attempt to derail the wagon (though this is slippery territory), and I think we have a fairly solid case though it could of course benefit from more evidence.

7. 659: According to Iconeum, all of Lalendra's posts were from Friday --> Were they? I thought they posted some Saturday? Well, I don't look at timestamps too much, so that is probably true. Still, by the time Lalendra entered the thread, there was enough content to (imo) give some kind of read or take some kind of stance.

8. Some stuff about Ausuka in 666 --> Quick question: you did factor in Ausuka's meta experience with me (as well as read accuracy with me) when making that re-evaluation, right?

9. 670: More from Iconeum about Ausuka read --> I mean, I did make that big post in that time frame, and Ausuka did clarify later that the unvote was because she needed to reevaluate after that. Also, I think it is a bit less effort and more of a meta-based read. (Note: Just providing an alternate viewpoint here.)

10. 690 by Mutantdevle paints my wagon 'leap' from The Janitor to Lalendra as scummy --> I think this is a poor representation of the actual progression. First of all, to say I didn't scumread Lalendra isn't exactly true (maybe I was 1% confident they were town in a readslist, but such a low % doesn't matter that much here). And yes, I did acknowledge flaws with the Lalendra wagon; however, I also pointed out some major flaws with The Janitor wagon. Nothing in mafia is black-and-white; you must consider everything as an aggregate. Now, if you were paying attn to those two posts, you would understand my reason for my change and my acknowledgement that while it was perhaps not the ideal change, it was the better direction to head in from my perspective.

[Ircher]

pedit: wait I did NOT notice that ircher was voting Lalendra ｢(ﾟﾍﾟ)

That's cuz the mod made a mistake... Is there an issue with that?

[Ircher]

1.

My predecessor is hilariously town lol if I see any votes on him I'm probably fosing them

Page 17. Skimmed a fair bit of this. I think Ausuka and Ircher has a scum probably, definitely not SvS though.

I disagree that your predecessor was hilariously town; in fact, they are the only slot I have like zero read on currently. As far as Ausuka and I having one scum between us... Not sure where you get that from... Would you like to elaborate?

2.

Ircher's sliding a lot as of page 18.

I believe that the majority of the thread believes the opposite. Like seriously, you had apparently zero issue with my starting posts, but then you find my later posts not so good? This honestly makes little sense to me.

Didn't you give way more reads in 1900? I'll need to pull that up I think

No, I did not, as I can see you found out. Also, I stopped playing mafia for like a year (with the exception of the recent marathon weekend); it is possible my meta has changed some. (As far as read confidence goes, it

really

depends on the game.)

3.

Does anybody disagree with this?

(Referring to his reads in 764.) I mean, I disagree with you being town to some degree. I also disagree with Mutant being town. The rest seem fine for the most part.

4.

Why is Lalendra the big wagon?

I don't remember them giving much of any impression.

You gave the reason yourself... Bigger question--what is wrong with the wagon? You townread the majority of the wagon, and I don't remember you specifically townreading Lalendra to a large extent.

5.

(which basically consists of "i don't like wagoning lurkers,

we have scumreads available

, lalendra is basically null")

Oh really?

Then why are you not pushing those scumreads. (I mean, if you are talking about me, you have said you scumread me all, but you aren't really pushing your scumread of me in a way that is leading anywhere.) The Janitor wagon has existed all game, and it has basically gone...

nowhere

. And I don't see you pushing any other scumreads.

6.

[what] is ausuka's alignment

I say more likely town than scum. But I do agree that their alignment isn't really clear at the moment.

7.

The LYNCH today should be between Ircher/Lalendra in my opinion,

Umm.... Why? (Or more as to, elaborate on why I/Lalendra are the two best choices for the lynch.)

8.

Aarrrgggghhhh this wagon is irresistable
Lalendraslot--we have unfinisher business.
VOTE: Ircher

Seriously?

9.

Janitor is probably the safest lynch tbh
Copcheck Ircher, Vig Ausuka/Lovebird?

I don't really disagree with this course of action. I would prefer Lovebird being vigged over Ausuka, but I guess that really doesn't matter as much. (And, while I have my doubts about Janitor being scum, it probably is the best lynch overall.)

Just, if I don't get lynched, I would prefer not to be vigged, okay?

10.

Why would we vig me?

Why not? It is not necessarily (at least imo) that you have acted scummy so much as being hard to read.

11. Lovebird in 832 gives a reads list. --> I'm not so sure about these reads; they definitely are that inline with mine...

12.

pedit: I would NOT vote a null slot if one of my scumreads were wagonning it, especially in THIS setup (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

Fair enough.

[Ircher]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+65%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(-5%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here. Okay, to be quite honest, it will probably be impossible for me to get a good read here, so I think I'm just gonna leave it at that. (i.e.: mixed, inreconcilable read) Setup aside, we get posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game. It is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am quite suspicious. Also, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. 821 is a good course of action tbh.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(-20%) - Honestly feel that this slot is scum; however, this is more gut-based versus fact-based.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Taly

(+55%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416

The Worst

(+50%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Iconeum

(+44%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

Almost50

davesaz

(+40%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads... I townread the self-voting shenanigans even if that isn't necessarily alignment indicative in general...

Ausuka

(+32%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here. I'd also like to note that the fact they are willing to reconsider whether I am scum is probably town-motivated; I don't really see scum missing the golden opportunity that is wagoning me.

Lalendra

(-31%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635.

Lovebird

(-32%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-40%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-50%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post. After noticing only 3 posts though, I am not as confident in this read.

The Janitor

(-56%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good. I don't like the wagon progression on this slot, so that is a plus for The Janitor.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

I still currently prefer Lalendra despite having a greater scumread on The Janitor, primarily because again, they have been wagoned basically the entire game, and the Janitor wagon had no real counter at its peak.

[Ircher]

I mean, you questioned why the wagon was so big...

Pedit: ??? (Although, doesn't the draft already tell you such with a high degree of confidence?)

Pedit2: No comment.

[Ircher]

I still don't understand what you dislike about my later posts... But okay, your explanation for why you were fine with my earlier posts suffices for now.

Pedit: Oh, that wasn't a softclaim. I can just would prefer not being vigged if I survived the lynch. It really isn't a super unreasonable expectation that someone would consider vigging me, after all. (I mean, now, it would be, but when I was reading then, that was not the case.)

@Eddie: Okay

Pedit2: ...........The latter probably, though I'm biased.

[Ircher]

I hardly think that my activity constitutes lurking, fyi. Not even active lurking really.

[Ircher]

Also, just as a general warning to everyone: DON'T. FUCKING. CRUMB. OR. SOFT.

It wasn't a

soft

.

[Ircher]

Yes, I die!

[Ircher]

D1 Taly Full Readslist

Town

Math - Strong Townread

- While I don't fully agree with their approach on setup right now, I think it's largely based on playstyle and I feel like he's put forth a strong voice within the playerlist and he's done the most to expand on his thinking. He's also thought of the other possibilities in a game which tells me he's looking beyond the surface level in order to solve it.

Fair enough.

Ircher - Strong Townread

- I think I've beat this to death so far,

if anyone has questions; then

PLEASE TALK TO ME.

Janitor - Moderate Townread

- Very similar case; don't agree with the suspicion on them and I feel like they're actively working to gamesolve.

I mean, I do agree they are putting forth some effort and are trying to some extent to gamesolve.... But at the same time, I don't think they are actually keen on solving the game... Not sure if you understand what I'm saying here...

Ausuka - Moderate Townread

- I'm pretty familiar with

Ausuka

; her being quick to try and gauge for information through wagons while also going into great depth about her perceptions give this a solid townread on her. This is partially meta, but with in-thread game evidence, I feel like this is town either way.

Okay.

the worst - Moderate Townread

- Slightly questioning this a bit; but I think the worst's mentality of being laid back while engaging is town-motivated. I think he's pushing boundaries in order to improve his vision of the game.

Any particular reason you are questioning this?

Eddie - Slight Townread

- Made self a very prominent presence amongst their little time being among the playerlist. Giving reads and most definitely displaying a forward gamesolve standpoint.

Not sure I would consider this a strong enough reason to townread a person, but okay.

Null/Questioning

Saske - Not Confident, Lean Town

- Probably one of the most volatile reads I have. I don't always see the reasoning behind their thoughts and I feel like they've voted with the flow of the town. However, they have been responsive and they are generating assessments to help further the gamestate. I had a hard time placing this as town or not.

I can see where you are at; however, I kinda consider them more of a town leader versus going with the flow. Furthermore, I feel they are actively trying to gamesolve and are careful not to be too judgement, and they are always open to discussions.

Dave - Not Confident, Lean Town

- I don't like to read replacements like their predecessors. I was iffy on

Almost50

but I felt they were genuine. I also feel the same thing for

Dave

, but they haven't posted enough to sway me strongly.

Interesting...

Mylo - Null

- Similar to my

Dave

read but with a lot less content to judge off of.

Makes sense. Any thoughts on Beefster though? (I'm sure you provided them before...)

Mutant - Not Confident, Lean Scum

- They're borderline voteparking on

Ircher

, someone I strongly feel is town, and while I do like they're content through Page 10, I haven't seen much beyond that that strikes me as towny.

Also an interesting read....

Scum

Lovebird - Slight Scumread

- Literally posts

"this is town" and "this is scum"

without giving reasons and then disappears. Unhelpful, and I question how genuine their reads are.

I think this is how Lovebird plays in general, so I don't think this is alignment-indicative?

Iconeum - Slight Scumread

- Probably the least confident of the scumreads, they're the most forward players out of my scumreads. But I still don't get their insistence on

Janitor

or their read progression.

Not sure if I agree with this read or where it is coming from... Are you sure this isn't just a case of "I disagree with their reads, so I think they are scum?" (It happens from time to time for all of us.)

Lalendra - Slight Scumread

- Mash my

Lovebird and Mylo

read together while looking at how quickly built their wagon was created, and then weakened - and that makes me think this is a worthy potential lynch and scum.

Interesting...

:/ My townreads are stronger than my scumreads currently, which I don't like at all, but I'm working to change that.

Of course, several reads are liable to change soon.

Comments are bolded and in purple.

[Ircher]

Why not? It is not necessarily (at least imo) that you have acted scummy so much as being hard to read.

I'm not hard to read. People done it easily before.

Yeah, but you are hard

for me

to read.

[Ircher]

Just let it slide @Lovebird

[Ircher]

Meta based read on Ausuka? Sorry, I'm too lazy to actually conduct metadives; instead, I construct a working sense of one's meta.

[Ircher]

5) Mutant/Lalendra Comments: What's interesting about my reads there? What is your read on these two?

6) Lovebird Comment: Elaborated on this in 903, let me know if that still doesn't clear things up for you.

5) I have a readslist somewhere... Just ISO me cuz I'm too lazy
6) I still disagree; I think that is a playstyle thing for Lovebird, to give reads without explanations; no one else seems to be having issues with it.

[Ircher]

1. In 923:

So you're thinking this is more meta-based for Lovebird? I haven't seen enough to think otherwise, so I'd like to see some more explanation.

Yes, I do believe so; however, I must admit that this is a conjecture I made rather than something I verified. I'm pretty sure other people have meta experience with Lovebird and can verify if this a playstyle thing or not, though

by the fact that they have not jumped on Lovebird yet for their lack of explanations, my conjecture is likely true.

2. In 929:

It just all begins with an IRCHER lynch.

.................................................................................What did you think about letting a cop check me N1 and lynching Janitor D1? (Although, it is not guaranteed we have a cop, but.........................................................)

3. In 937:

VOTE: Iconeum

I don't think this is a mechanically sound vote? Regardless, Iconeum isn't really pinging me, and I think the same can be said for the majority of the thread as of present.

4. In 956:

39 is a STRONG town interaction with me, and EVEN if you do NOT agree with the reads in 14 it shows that he’s ACTIVELY sorting the game, saying he’s not SCUMHUNTING is disingenuous when he has 2 SCUMHUNTING posts and basically 2 SETUP related posts, the ratio here is VISIBLY about equal

Okay, in terms of 39, I agree after looking at it yet again that it is more likely a town than scum interaction. As far as ratios go:

11 is setup-related. 12 is setup-related. 14 hardly quantifies as scumhunting imo, esp. when the reads are

very likely

to be setup-related rather than based on actions those members have taken so far. (Like, I don't have definitive proof that those are reads based on the draft, but I don't think you can really say that those reads come from scumhunting.) 15 is definitely setup-related. I don't really consider 17 scumhunting

since

Mathdino said it is a policy-related vote versus a "I'm reading you scummy" vote. 24 is a meta read on Beefster trying to support the PL, so again, I don't really consider that scumhunting. 37 counts as scumhunting as does 39. So yes, I guess your assessment of the ratio of setup-related posts to scumhunting posts is fairly equal is pretty accurate;

however

, you also understand that certain kinds of posts stand out more (which this probably doesn't help my case, but...) and setup-related posts tend to do that.

I would BELIEVE that the natural way to read someone is to see LATER, MORE SCUMHUNTING posts as MORE alignment indicative than EARLY posts discussing the setup, NOT viceversa. Keeping him at NULL after seeing GENUINE content from him does NOT sit well with me

This has to do in part with paranoia, and tbqh, for me, first impressions do matter

as they tend to tint my future reading of someone regardless of if that's fair or not. As to the paranoia part: 1) Scum can "look" like they are legitly scumhunting, and while I am not necessarily accusing Mathdino of doing such here, it is important to note that I factor such possibility into my reads 2) I'm not going to go in-depth about that, but I try to factor possible biases into my reads.

I think it's VERY clear that this did NOT happen, town!IRCHER would be AWARE of this personality conflict in the SAME WAY. BUT ircher CONTINUES to talk about MATHDINO as we see later on! （・□・；）

Have you ever tried to completely stop paying attn to someone? It is way more difficult than you think. That said, I won't deny that what you say here is fairly accurate. And yes, to a certain degree, the acknowledgement is to keep people from complaining too much. But it is also an acknowledgement that I will have to trust someone else's read there more than my own, and I feel my read there has been

fairly consistent

somewhat consistent with that notion (considering I don't exactly trust anyone reads-wise enough at the moment; that should probably change).

I CANNOT compute with this post, if you actually READ the post Math-sensei is referring to it is a RESPONSE to Ausuka - Lalendra even SAID in her signature that she's USUALLY lynchbait, and the post Math-sensei linked and the one Ausuka-chan scumread seem very SIMILAR in personality profile. So OBVIOUSLY math-sensei should be HESITANT to push this wagon, whether he's PARTNERED with Lalendra or NOT! (*•̀ᴗ•́*)

Fair enough.

Do I even HAVE to explain why this is a SHITTAKE read （￣へ￣）

Yeah, I kinda did go a bit over the top there when making that post...

5. In 974:

Not explainging things isn't my scum style. Everyone just always townreads big walls and explanations anyways.

(This is one of the biases I factor in...)

6. In 1018:

My main issue with it is (SIMYK you're a fucking wizard for this) it feels like he's coming in and lecturing @ the thread rather than jumping in and engaging with people

(I don't disagree with this sentiment.)

7. In 1024:

why the **** haven't you been screaming at everyone that ircher is town when ircher has been by far the most likely lynch for the majority of the day

i was waiting for you to come into the thread and actually state a read and you did jack

While I'm probably not in a position to judge accurately, are you sure that is a fair assessment? I mean, I have tbh that given what Ausuka said, I'm a bit surprised that she hasn't said more, but I still think that what she has done in general this game has aligned with her beliefs as to my alignment. Also, what about posting times? Perhaps Ausuka hasn't been in a position to post as much? (I haven't been paying attn to that so I cannot say; just something to consider).

8. In 1028:

is half of the original playerlist just gamethrowing or what

I don't think anyone has came close to game-throwing... I mean, I guess we can count A50's self-vote and Beefster's claim, but I hardly take Ausuka's sentiment as game-throwing...

9. In 1029:

If youre town and get vigged and have reads you were highly confident in yes we will look at them

In my experience, this has rarely happened in practice. (That is, people looking at town people's reads after they die.)

10. In 1034:

except I've literally talked about how I don't have as strong a read on Ircher as usual and I haven't really been seeing him as "by far the most likely lynch" at all

I believe that your actions reflect what you state;

however

, 80% confidence still counts as pretty high imo, and I think that is in part what Mathdino is getting at.

11. In 1047:

Meta is a PERFECTLY valid tool to use and I do NOT think Ausuka-chan is in the WRONG for relying on it (ﾉ^ヮ^)ﾉ*:・ﾟ✧

It is VERY effective to use on players whom people MISREAD often, like how CREATURE used to be before his meta was WIDELY KNOWN!

Totally agree with this.

12. In 1073:

Low content
Low frequency
High scumminess
High in drafts

Delicious cocktail of scum PRness

Why are you so not focused on it?

I feel your earlier assessment did a more convincing job tbh.

13. In 1079:

...You literally posted an entire wall (much of which was "fair enough, null") and then two posts later everyone is either null or neutral (not sure I understand the need to separate those) except you (shocking) and one person whose "posts continue to not really be good". That's it?

First of all

, you do realize that the "notes" and the reads go hand-in-hand?
Second of all, did you try reading the second spoiler about how to read the reads list? You would know I separate Neutral and Null and while you may not agree with how I separate them, you should treat my neutral reads as more/less serious reads. (In other words, saying everyone is either null or neutral is a meaningless statement as the neutral reads aren't really a "no read" or even a "very weak read" thing; it just has to do with the level of confidence. Again, you don't have to agree with the system, but please try to acknowledge it.)

14. In 1080:

Are we lynching Lalen yet

^.

15. In 1081:

Ausuka's <post>568</post> is super waffly in terms of a read on Ircher. I've never seen someone flip-flop that much on one person in one post.

I disagree significantly. Out of context, yes. Did you factor in Ausuka's meta experience before making this statement?

[Quotes 833] Weirdly defensive

I guess it may seem like that in a way... I'm not really trying to be super aggressive about it there though, as you should see from the ensuing response to the post.

I still currently prefer Lalendra despite having a greater scumread on The Janitor, primarily because again, they have been wagoned basically the entire game, and the Janitor wagon had no real counter at its peak.

Weird, the only other person in danger of being lynched today, besides me, prefers that I be the one to be lynched. CRAZY

I'm not sure this is even close to an accurate statement; who said they completely eliminated The Janitor from their lynch pool? Regardless, this isn't really weird when I give some reasons for such.

[Ircher]

Since I'm not part of the townbloc, my opinion doesn't matter. Thus, I should just VOTE: Ircher and let the townbloc coordinate a town win.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Lalendra

[Ircher]

That was L-2, and it was an obvious parody of one of Ausuka's earlier posts.

[Ircher]

have you even been reading my posts

i'm getting vigged anyway and once I get vigged nobody will care about my reads so i'm not inclined to spend a lot of time and effort detailing them

[Ircher]

No, that wasn't hammer.

[Ircher]

SIMYK

So is the root of your case based on

Ircher's

stance with

Math

? I read through your case, and I do agree with some of the points you brought up; in regards to his unclear read of

Math

429, and the comment of

"we're never going to see eye-to-eye"

seems like creating a division and not desiring to work with someone disagreeing with him.

And there are some things you brought up that I drew a different conclusion and thought.

((Refer to my questions toward him))

Overall, I don't see a strong link to scum-motivation here. I feel like the uncertainty within his reads could also come from town working to make sense of the game. Furthermore, I'm still a bit worried about the lack of resistance on his wagon, that's a big thing that strikes me as off about a lynch on

Ircher

. There's not a lot of derailment on the suspicion towards him.

Also, is his lynch partially policy because of the townbloc formulated?

Mathdino

, can you refer me to your posts on the townbloc and the conclusions over that? I think I've missed some of those posts. :/

Ircher

1)

851

Oh really? Then why are you not pushing those scumreads. (I mean, if you are talking about me, you have said you scumread me all, but you aren't really pushing your scumread of me in a way that is leading anywhere.) The Janitor wagon has existed all game, and it has basically gone... nowhere. And I don't see you pushing any other scumreads.

I don't buy this that much. You haven't pushed your scumreads much as well. Could you provide your reads beyond the

Lalendra

's posts? Also, what are your thoughts on

Janitor

's wagon?

The major qualm I have about the Janitor wagon is lack of early resistance to it; I didn't like their opening, and while their latter posts have been better to a certain degree, I still have a scumread there. Lovebird I more or less lean scum on tbh, but I feel that I cannot really read them well, so I'm not really aggressively pursuing that read. I also scumread Mutant to a certain degree, but again, I'm not sure how much that has to do with my personal preferences versus their actual scumminess. Then we have the Beefster/Myloninja slot. I could have pushed that one more aggressively, but it wasn't a huge topic for most people plus Beefster had only 3 posts, so I decided not to. As far as hypocrisy goes, that's probably true.

In the same breath, I don't know why you'd resign to your lynch. :/ Some of your actions are inconsistent with your thoughts.

I never did that.... See below...

2)

I haven't seen anybody explain their meta reads on

Lovebird

in depth, so I don't know why people assume they're town without trying to gauge for their reasons. They haven't really scumhunted much at all because their posts revolve around vaguely stating something is either scummy or towny.

With the content in this game thus far, I feel like people overlook this, and I want you to elaborate on your read here before any hammer occurs.

You may be right. I know The Worst has expressed some doubts over the slot. That said, I don't think the majority of people here townread them so much as nullread them and feel that there are better targets to pursue.

That was L-2, and it was an obvious parody of one of Ausuka's earlier posts.

...So the purpose of your self-vote was...?

Reactions.

[/quote]

Pedit: I'm pretty sure it is L-2 cuz of Eddie's vote.

[Ircher]

VOTE: lovebird

ANYWAY so yeah

We are NOT lynching Ahiru-tan, Math-sensei, Taly, Ausuka-chan, Mylo, Janitor, or Icon (because of his draft NOT because of his posts) today (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

VOTE: Lalendra

REGARDLESS of my READ of IRCHER the wagon here is CLEARLY town, I am STILL going to write my points on IRCHER for taly BUT we need to CONSOLIDATE and this also gives Ausuka-chan more time to read Ircher (ﾉ^ヮ^)ﾉ*:・ﾟ✧

Ausuka-chan let's go BACK here!

ok!
VOTE: Lalendra

VOTE: Lovebird

These were Ausuka's last 3 votes.

[Ircher]

oh my bad it's 8 to lynch not 7 to lynch

i'm autohammering if someone L-1s him

Oh, then Taly is right.... It is L-3; I was thinking 7 to lynch as well.

[Ircher]

oh my bad it's 8 to lynch not 7 to lynch

i'm autohammering if someone L-1s him

Can we policy lynch this?

[Ircher]

hey that's L-1

intent to policyhammer this shit to kingdom come

A bit over the top imho. Not necessarily scummy.

to think! i was just about to push janitor instead

I honestly don't believe this.

I'll never understand self-votes.

Wait, I'm typing things up in response to

SIMYK and Ircher

.

And I'd prefer to have

Lalendra

and

the worst

reply to me before the dayphase ends.

I think you took the vote a bit too seriously. Not sure what that says about alignments though.

(Though, besides reactions, the other reason was for fun! Besides, this thread's atmosphere is like way too tense atm.)

[Ircher]

Oh, and Eddie waiting until immediately after to vote, like...? Couldn't you've voted me way earlier? (Like before I self-voted?) What made you suddenly decide to vote me?

[Ircher]

Oh, and Eddie waiting until immediately after to vote, like...? Couldn't you've voted me way earlier? (Like before I self-voted?) What made you suddenly decide to vote me?

Disgusting self vote

Even after I tell you it was a parody of a comment Ausuka made earlier......?

Pedit: ???

[Ircher]

That was L-2, and it was an obvious parody of one of Ausuka's earlier posts.

have you even been reading my posts

i'm getting vigged anyway and once I get vigged nobody will care about my reads so i'm not inclined to spend a lot of time and effort detailing them

You still felt your vote on me was worthwhile even after this? I mean, if you have other reasons, then that's fine, but then that raises the question as to why you waited until the self-vote biz was finished and done to vote me.

[Ircher]

Okay, the Lalendra and Lovebird wagons need to consolidate into one wagon... I don't care if it is Lalendra or Lovebird that much, but I think I prefer the Lalendra wagon better tbh.

[Ircher]

(And it seems SYMIK ninja'd me in that respect.)

[Ircher]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+72%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general. (I mean, I could probably point out some specifics, but is that really necessary?)

The Worst

(+61%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(+22%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here. Okay, to be quite honest, it will probably be impossible for me to get a good read here, so I think I'm just gonna leave it at that. (i.e.: mixed, inreconcilable read) Setup aside, we get posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game. It is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. (After seeing SIMYK's case on me, I may have misinterpreted Mathdino's actions here to a certain degree.) Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am quite suspicious. Also, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. 821 is a good course of action tbh.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(-25%) - Honestly feel that this slot is scum; however, this is more gut-based versus fact-based. Still scum-vibe; don't really like 931 either.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Taly

(+56%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.

Iconeum

(+44%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

Almost50

davesaz

(+40%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads... I townread the self-voting shenanigans even if that isn't necessarily alignment indicative in general...

Ausuka

(+33%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here. I'd also like to note that the fact they are willing to reconsider whether I am scum is probably town-motivated; I don't really see scum missing the golden opportunity that is wagoning me.

Lovebird

(-33%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-38%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-50%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post. After noticing only 3 posts though, I am not as confident in this read.

Lalendra

(-50%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635. I don't like their catchup posts (1081 for instance), and I feel that some of their interpretations are out-of-context or unfair.

The Janitor

(-56%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good. I don't like the wagon progression on this slot, so that is a plus for The Janitor.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

Ircher wrote:
Okay, the Lalendra and Lovebird wagons need to consolidate into one wagon... I don't care if it is Lalendra or Lovebird that much, but I think I prefer the Lalendra wagon better tbh.

Reasons?

To have a viable counterwagon to my wagon; divided we fall, united we stand!

[Ircher]

280:
The Janitor (5) - Mathdino, Almost50, Iconeum, Beefster, mutantdevle

No real counterwagons; there is I guess Almost50 with 2 votes (SYMIK andd Brass) that was at three votes at the 228 votecount.

481:
The Janitor (4) - Almost50, Iconeum, Beefster, Ircher
Ircher (3) - SYMIK, Mathdino, mutantdevle

Also want to note that The Worst and Ausuka were on my wagon at some point between 218 and 418.

Janitor's wagon has been around for quite some time, and never really dissolved.

582:
The Janitor (3) - Iconeum, Beefster, Ircher
Ircher (3) - SYMIK, Mathdino, mutantdevle,
Lalendra (3) - Ausuka, the worst, Taly
Ausuka (2) - Lovebird, brassherald

Iconeum (1) - Almost50/davesaz

Not voting - Lalendra, The Janitor

So basically, there are no clear scumreads at this point and the game is basically at a standstill.

We have The Janitor wagon which has basically been here the entire game, and I don't think anyone has even once tried to derail the wagon directly. That kinda makes me uncomfortable about the wagon. I'm fine with Iconeum on the wagon but not so sure about Beefster.

Next, we have my wagon. I'm pretty sure Mathdino and mutant are not going to be moving off it anytime soon and while they do scumread me, I'm not sure how much is based off a general scum vibe from me and how much is because they did not like my entrance (not my first post but the subsequent ones) and do not like my personality/playstyle.

Then, we have the Lalendra wagon. At least two players that I more or less townread are on it... But I'm not sure if it will get anywhere. Like, I agree that Lalendra hasn't done much, but what is this wagon accomplishing?

Okay, now I find the Ausuka wagon a bit weird. Like, both Lovebird and brassherald haven't been in the game thread that much, and they seem quite comfortable on a wagon that hasn't and probably isn't going to go anywhere. Lovebird has been on it since 280, when a lot of people were on The Janitor's wagon. Brassherald joined by 418 (which is admittedly a wide gap, but I do think that is around the time Brass started posting). They haven't moved off it since, and I don't think they have done a huge job of articulating exactly why they are on it to begin with.

It is also puzzling why Almost50 switched from voting themselves earlier to voteparking (perhaps the wrong word to use--too strong--but I'm using anyway) on Iconeum. I'm pretty sure around 60%-70% of the thread has expressed a strong disapproval of lynching Iconeum in general on D1, so I'm quite confident that I can say that this wagon is going nowhere. I'll have to go back, find, and reread the post where A50 switches vote though to see why they joined.

Finally, we have Lalendra and The Janitor not voting. Did lalendra ever express any kind of weekend V/LA (I mean, I would ask the same of brassherald, but they are at least voting) because there lack of presence is quite noticable. I feel they ought to have some kind of opinion by this point in the game. I know The Janitor has reads, and they have been working at catch up... But again, why are you not voting at the present time? I feel like I ought to give The Janitor the benefit of the doubt though--maybe they have been spending so much time catching up that they have not been able to spend some time to really consolidate their reads.

(For Taly's reference on my stance regarding The Janitor's wagon)

[Ircher]

Yes, but why couldn't you vote before. I'm sure you were on earlier today, well before I self-voted.

[Ircher]

1. In 1144:

I haven't seen you try to combat your wagon that much, do you find validity in the reasons against you? And even so, where's your focus at the moment? There's not a lot of responses from you to the Janitor or the wagon on him from what I'm reading.

As far as my wagon goes, yes, I do find some validity in the reasons presented, esp. SIMYK's case. Furthermore, is there a point to me fighting my wagon? No, I do not believe so. I haven't said much toward Janitor because honestly, there hasn't been much that caught me eye since his first few posts. As to the wagon, it hardly exists atm.

Could you explain your read progression here, and where you're at with Janitor now?

Main thing is that I was not fond of their entrance, which I'm still placing some heavy weight upon; however, I feel that their more recent posts have been better, and I may have misjudged them in the beginning. That said, I still feel more confident in scum!Janitor versus town!Janitor atm, and one of those reasons is reads PoE (i.e.: my reads gives a lynchpool that suggest that Janitor has a good chance of being scum).

Where's your thinking with Ausuka and Lovebird right now? They haven't been present in the past few pages, yet I really like Ausuka going into depth about her thought process and I'm considering the Lovebird wagon at the moment because I feel like they've been lacking behind their insights and they're motives have been unclear despite the many pages of content so far in this game.

I leaning towards town!Ausuka for a few reasons such as their progression of their read on me; however, I am being careful not to be tricked by Ausuka here; I'm not sure I'm super-acquainted with their scum meta. For Lovebird, I lean scum primarily because of activity reasons; modulo that, and they are basically null for me. I will defer (eventually) to someone who I can 1) trust is town and 2) trust that their reads are good for my ultimate read on them.

Janitor's definitely posted more than Lalendra from what I've read; how do you feel about Lalendra's wagon progression and how it's been going up and down in favor?

I'm not sure--I have not looked into it that much.

2. In 1154:

How can you be caught up but not have reads/opinions? This post is the weakes excuse ever to sheep somewhere and appear active.

FOS davesav

(In response to davesaz's 1152.)

I think this is a good point that Iconeum raises.

3. In 1157:

I began pushing Lovebird when the vibes started vibing. It's a much better scumread then Lalendra.

I think the more important issue is consolidating. As of right now, the thread is strongly divided over 4 potential lynches: myself, The Janitor, Lovebird, and Lalendra.

4. In 1164:

I finially caught up and I think I've got some basic townreads here?

I think The Worst, Math and A50/dave are all town, and I town lean Saske and Eddie. They've all made good contributions to the game.

This is all you have?

5. In 1167:

I'll certainly vote Lalen with you!

VOTE: Lalendra

And to Icon, it's mostly A50's contributions that make me town read that slot. Although I do know dave has a tendency to be a bit lynchbaity.

Okay, so the general concensus seems to be that Lalendra is a more worthwhile lynch than Lovebird. In other words, if you are voting Lovebird right now, either a) provide a compelling case as to why Lovebird is the better lynch (and yes, it

must

be a case with references to actual posts) or b) Join the Lalendra train.
(You could also join the Ircher wagon (not recommended) or the Janitor wagon too if you really think Lalendra is town or feel very strongly about Janitor or me being scum, but barring that, joining the Lalendra wagon is prob. the best move for you to make.)

6. In 1179:

Or having a cop check me and lynching you Day 1?v How does this argument make sense?

That post wasn't directed at you, so I'm not sure what your point here is?

7. In 1183:

Neighborizer, because scum neighborizers are laughably good and function as rolecops anyway.

(Any links?)

Also, how do they function as rolecops?

The way I see it is that a scum neighborizer has to put in more work because they have to pay attention to the neighborhood thread as well as the game thread. Still, you have more experience with this setup, so.......

8. In 1185:

2) I also addressed this, but since more has happened, I'll say this: I'm not understanding ducky's tunneling on me, most of the other votes were because of lack of activity (NAI) and tone (my tone is inconsistent af, it depends entirely on my mood and not at all on my alignment). It's horseshit.

I think that might be somewhat an oversimplification, as in there is more to it than just that. But that probably is a semi-reasonable interpretation of the wagon. Thing is, none of us really have too much better in terms of reads and wagons.

I wasn't saying that neutral and null meant the same thing in your readslist, I understand that they don't. I'm saying I don't understand the need to separate them. In that it seems nitpicky. Essentially yes, I understand the system you're using, I just don't agree with it. We're saying the same thing.

I don't believe this when your post reads like this:

...You literally posted an entire wall (much of which was "fair enough, null") and then two posts later everyone is either null or neutral (not sure I understand the need to separate those) except you (shocking) and one person whose "posts continue to not really be good". That's it?

As a reminder, my response to this was:

First of all, you do realize that the "notes" and the reads go hand-in-hand?
Second of all, did you try reading the second spoiler about how to read the reads list? You would know I separate Neutral and Null and while you may not agree with how I separate them, you should treat my neutral reads as more/less serious reads. (In other words, saying everyone is either null or neutral is a meaningless statement as the neutral reads aren't really a "no read" or even a "very weak read" thing; it just has to do with the level of confidence. Again, you don't have to agree with the system, but please try to acknowledge it.)

So, no, I don't think we're stating the same thing there. And yes, there is a good reason to separate them: a null read indicates generally no read or a very conflicted read; a neutral read is a mixed read, but it is not a conflicted read; there is generally a clear leaning toward town or scum in a neutral read, just not a very confident one.

9. In 1192:

Tbh I town lean Ircher atp. I so so badly want to lynch him on principle but unfortunately I'm too competitive for that

So your vote earlier was policy? Okay....................

Okay, the Lalendra and Lovebird wagons need to consolidate into one wagon... I don't care if it is Lalendra or Lovebird that much, but I think I prefer the Lalendra wagon better tbh.

...why?

I'm sure I've explained this at least once and probably multiple times, and I don't really feel bothered to explain this again.

10. In 1195:

How is this a question when the answer is damn obvious?

Perhaps because it wasn't obvious? Like, it may seem obvious

out of context

; however,

in context

, it isn't really that obvious.

11. In 1197:

Why do you feel like your vote NEEDS to be the hammer?

I mean, you'll give him time to claim right?

(He probably wouldn't let me claim if I don't claim before L-1.)

12. In 1201:

I'm working to engage with people more but I feel like I've been told: "your answer is somewhere in these 50 pages. good luck." and I feel unconvinced when I read through the thread, because it's NOT someone talking their read out with me.

I'm not trying to lecture the thread or single ANYONE out; but that's how I feel my interactions have been in this game to some point.

I mean, I've occassionally told you to find stuff yourself because I didn't repeat myself, but it should have been clear that said information was in my ISO, which should significantly decrease the difficulty in finding something I said.

SIMYK obliged, and I think she brought up points that are noteworthy, and so I want Ircher to respond to my prompts toward him.

I'm not sure I follow here? Which prompts have I missed that you addressed to me?

13. In 1206:

And yeah, the self-meta in my sig is something that would help me as scum. But since I never roll scum (which sucks because I love it) it's mostly just there to say "anything you're thinking about me based on my tone, interactions, reads, or anything else is less likely because I'm scum and more likely because you don't like my playstyle."

It is possible that is true... But, I don't think I necessarily see anything about your playstyle that having meta experience with you would help understand. I mean, I get it in a way: your wagon basically began as "You aren't really contributing anything" and "You are lurking" and part of that was due to being V/LA on the weekend. I stuck with my read on you simply because I had nothing better to go by, and the only other real option I was considering voting was The Janitor; however, I have stated multiple times why I did not want to vote The Janitor as well as some about why I liked voting you. Then your contributions yesterday... Maybe it is a bias, as a good portion of your post(s) did focus on me, but I didn't feel like they provided a fair viewpoint of my posts. Obviously, my posts are not the quintessence of town; however, I still felt that your perspective on them was quite flawed. Note that has nothing to do with a tone read. Anyway, I don't have meta with you, so I don't know really how you are in games, but the general vibe is that people don't really scumread you for your playstyle alone; they do so for other reasons as well.

14. In 1210:

she benefits from it more often when she's town lol
i wouldn't call her scumgame especially top tier

okay FIRST OF ALL
you played one game with me as scum and you broke the goddamn setup within HOURS, thereby demotivating and demoralizing the entire scumteam and I had to do everything ALL BY MYSELF
so
this is hurtful

So the message of your post here is that you're better at scum than math thinks?

It wasn't a super serious post.

Okay, maybe I do see a potential issue with your playstyle; your word choice generally suggests an aggressive or highly confident tone. Yet, then you make statements like these which seem to conflict completely with the tone implicit in the majority of your posts. Like here: if it wasn't super serious, why does it have a harsh tone to it? (I mean, it is harder to read tone when the medium is text; however, word choice matters.)

15. In 1219:

worst is janitor or lovebird a better lynch

(Not addressed to me, but...) I personally think at this point that Lalendra is a better lynch compared to Lovebird.

16. In 1231:

Lovebird's CONVICTION on Ausuka-chan feels DISINGENUOUS to me, her CHARACTERIZATION of her vote as skiddish and SHY did NOT make a lot of sense to me o(≧∇≦o)

Something worth noting.

17. In 1235:

that's what I got from her posts

I was under the impression they were caught up as of yesterday... I guess we'll have to verify with Lalendra explicitly, but they definitely aren't super far behind.

18. In 1245:

Can everyone please post their confident reads in either direction? I dont need explanations

Town - SIMYK, The Worst, Taly
Scum - No one really; I guess Lalendra and the Janitor qualify but neither are super confident reads

[Ircher]

Perhaps because it wasn't obvious? Like, it may seem obvious out of context; however, in context, it isn't really that obvious.

How does a lack of context make it any less obvious?

Besides, what context exactly am I missing?


You self-voted. That's scummy. A naked vote soon after that clearly implies it was in light of your own self vote.

1) Self-voting is by far not scummy. Do you scumread A50 for self-voting earlier?
2) His vote came AFTER I clarified that the self-vote was more or less a parody of something Ausuka stated. Thus, the connection isn't as obvious as you make it to be.

[Ircher]

Ircher--take on Ausuka?

Really hard to say. Like, I feel like the stuff they have stated so far has been mostly town-sided, but there really isn't enough to confidently say "Town". There is also the fact that they aren't participating in the thread a whole lot because "they will be vigged anyway, so their reads don't matter.".

[Ircher]

V/LA tommorrow; be back Friday.

[Ircher]

1) Now you are simply applying a double standard. A self vote is useful at times, athough frequenty, it is simply used as an AtE. Mine was clearly not. Also, I believe the burden of proof is on you to show me

multiple instances

where self-voting is scummy. The burden is not on me to give a reason that self-voting is townie--I never said it was; more often than not, it is null. If there is anything self-voting achieves, it generally gets people to question and second-guess their reads.
2) You cannot call something unclear when I immediately clarify it and call it such and reference the post being parodied. This all happened before Eddie Cane voted me. Also, if you understand this idea, you would understand that the primary reason of the self-vote was for fun purposes, and as much as you will probably call that scummy, having fun is honestly null.

[Ircher]

Since I'm not part of the townbloc, my opinion doesn't matter. Thus, I should just VOTE: Ircher and let the townbloc coordinate a town win.

That was L-2, and it was an obvious parody of one of Ausuka's earlier posts.

have you even been reading my posts

i'm getting vigged anyway and once I get vigged nobody will care about my reads so i'm not inclined to spend a lot of time and effort detailing them

What about this reads as unclear?

[Ircher]

2) You cannot call something unclear when I immediately clarify it and call it such and reference the post being parodied. This all happened before Eddie Cane voted me. Also, if you understand this idea, you would understand that the primary reason of the self-vote was for fun purposes, and as much as you will probably call that scummy, having fun is honestly null.

Actually, I retract this.

[Ircher]

But there still lies the issue that they did not immediately change votes, so......... still not the clearest reasons.

[Ircher]

I'm seriously ready for this day to end....

[Ircher]

So, who would like to offer themselves up as tribute?

[Ircher]

Lalendra, do you offer yourself up as tribute?

[Ircher]

Lalendra, do you offer yourself up as tribute?

[Ircher]

But then people cannot read you...

[Ircher]

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell. The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

[Ircher]

15. In 1081:

Ausuka's 568 is super waffly in terms of a read on Ircher. I've never seen someone flip-flop that much on one person in one post.

I disagree significantly. Out of context, yes. Did you factor in Ausuka's meta experience before making this statement?

@Lalendra

: Did you factor this into your Ausuka read?

[Ircher]

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell. The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

While this practice is commonly seen as scum-indicative, no data has been compiled on the actual effectiveness of self-voting as a towntell or a scumtell.

The lack of strong evidence one way or the other has led some players to believe that voting for self-voters is actually just a Policy Lynch for anti-town behavior.

That's the fucking point *******....


You get policy lynched for self-voting. So don't self-vote.

You said it was scummy; I'm showing it is not necessarily scummy; anti-town != scum-motivated.

[Ircher]

15. In 1081:

Ausuka's 568 is super waffly in terms of a read on Ircher. I've never seen someone flip-flop that much on one person in one post.

I disagree significantly. Out of context, yes. Did you factor in Ausuka's meta experience before making this statement?

@Lalendra

: Did you factor this into your Ausuka read?

I think I already mentioned that I don't have any meta with Ausuka. Regardless, I still find it strange. I'm not really sure how someone can write a post and change their mind multiple times within that post with regard to a single slot. It seemed wishy-washy and as though she was leaving room to read you either way post-flip. So the short answer is no, I didn't factor in meta because I don't have any to speak of, and maybe it is a playstyle thing, but it seems very off to me and not towny.

I meant Ausuka's meta experience with me.
As to changing their mind during a post--perhaps it is because their post covers a large portion of posts? So, you might think one thing at first, but as you read further, you might think something else later. (Now, I can't remember specificly if that is the exact case here, but I think it is.)

I mean, it is not necessarily that your read is wrong; I just want to make sure that your read factors in everything that needs to be factored in.

[Ircher]

Okay, but self-voting when at like L-3 or L-4 or L-5 may be blatantly anti-town, but has very low risk.

[Ircher]

What do scum accomplish from a self-voting? A weak AtE argument. How many times do I have to explain this anyway? I've already done it like twice.

[Ircher]

I guess I should just sheep biggest wagon or towniest players then.

How about no?

[Ircher]

I mean, Myloninja (and their predecessor) have been keeping a minimal presence in the thread...

[Ircher]

Perhaps so.

Pedit: I don't they did?

[Ircher]

I can't understand that at all Eddie, but maybe we will get somewhere.

Also, I'm just gonna put this out there, but

if Lovebird reaches L-1, I'm hammering because 1) I want the day to end 2) While I don't have much a read there, I don't think I can read them well, and I think the case laid out there is reasonable enough to warrant lynching 3) There really isn't reason to delay.

So in other words,

@Lovebird

: If you are going to claim, you probably want to do so now.

[Ircher]

1. In 1431:

I didn't like that he was so against setup speccing. It didn't make sense, from a town perspective, to try to shut down any attempt at gamesolving. There's nothing inherently wrong with focusing on other people's reads, unless you are doing so to the exclusion of forming your own, which is what it seemed like he was doing.

Tell me this--how am I supposed to generate reads from something that amounts to null material (such as setup spec...)? And I disagree that setup speccing is gamesolving; some of it may be, but lots of it definitely isn't. I focus on other people's reads because that is, in part, how I generate my own reads. Seriously, you are stretching this beyond what it is; okay, I went a bit overboard with derailing setup spec, but aside from that, the rest of this is honestly a bit of a reach.

I understand your point about the draft, however, it's really important to note that scum are not likely to pick duplicate numbers. You really can use the draft numbers to theorize about alignment because yes, while both alignments are trying to get power roles, scum are the only ones able to make a concerted effort not to step on one another's toes.

Fair enough I guess, but this doesn't tell me anything about your alignment.

Re: your walls - your posts tend to be extremely lengthy and I have a hard time motivating myself to read them as a result. However, the one game I played with you before, you played the same way, so I don't think it's AI for you; it's just how you play.

Also another "fair enough I guess, but this doesn't tell me anything about your alignment".

Yes, I definitely see an associative between Ircher and Ausuka.

In what way?

The explanation of his readslist doesn't really change my thinking, because a) I wasn't really basing my read on that to begin with and b) he still didn't have any strong reads, just nulls and leans. Not a problem in and of itself, but waffly, and not really that different from my original interpretation of a

readslist that is largely useless.

And you can stop right there as that is completely wrong. First of all, lean reads are

by far

not useless. Second of all, this clearly indicates you still don't really understand how my readslist works; it works by confidence level. And yes, the confidence levels I assign are somewhat on the arbitrary side; however, that doesn't mean they convey useless information. In particular, the spoiler on my reads lists tries really hard to explain how this works. Here, I'll break it down for you:

Spoiler: Spoilering this because this is kinda long

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage.

That is the number you see in parenthesis beside each player. If you notice, each category also has something like "(60%-75% Confidence)". This means that if the number beside a player is between 60% and 75%, I will place them in that category.

A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player.

The other thing you need to pay attention to with the confidence ratings is whether they are positive or negative. Positive means town, negative means scum, and 0 means no read. Also note that the reads list is generally ordered by confidence level in decreasing order. In other words, the top reads are my most confident town reads, and the bottom of the list are my most confident scum reads (for the most part). There is one exception to this which brings us to the next part:

Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Now, I already clarified the difference between neutral and null, and hopefully, you understand why the difference exists.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another.

This is perhaps the most important aspect of the confidence ratings. They allow me to indicate the relative strengths of my reads. But at the same time, you must understand that they are estimates and despite the technicalities and complexities that the system suggests, I don't have a precise formula for assigning confidence levels other than as specified in the "How to read this readslist" spoiler that I post with every reads list. Sometimes you might note me place a 1% difference in confidence between two reads (esp. scumreads); this is a generally indicator that I scumread them both relatively the same, but I would lynch the one with a 1% higher confidence first jsut because. On the other hand, a 10% or 20% difference in confidence rating suggests that said reads are a fair ways apart.

In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

This explains why I tend to end up with a lot of "neutral" reads. In order for me to put you in the Leaning Scum or the Leaning Town categories, you generally have to be

consistently

scum or consistently town to me; one or two posts generally don't cut it except in certain early game situations where I feel really confident.

2. In 1435:

The Ircher wagon clearly isn't going anywhere and I'm not a fan of Lovebird's recent posting at all. I agree that either they are bad town, or they're obvscum. Slightly torn because it seems like a too-scummy-to-be-scum situation, but this slot is a liability at the very least. Add to that that this is the only wagon that is currently rivaling mine and it's a no-brainer.

VOTE: Lovebird

Feels like a bus to me.

3. In 1440:

Since I am at L-2, does the group want me to claim, or hold off?

Please go ahead and claim.

4. In 1442:

Did you really need to bribe the worst with your vote to get this information from him? I guarantee you would have got this had you just asked. NGL this feels like a clever way to be on Lalendra's wagon whilst being somewhat against it.

I feel like you are reading into this too much.

5. In 1445:

lalendra scumread is partially based on early uselessness; but what is also suspicious to me is the way she jumped onto the Ircher wagon. she seems to be trying to justify a scumread on Ircher to join that game; specifically the bit where she accuses Ircher of being "weirdly defensive" and comments on how Ircher would prefer Lalendra to be lynched- she seems to be suggesting the latter is a scumtell, which is especially ??? to me. The read doesn't look real. Lalendra and Lovebird are voting each other, but I believe this (distancing from each other and making it look like TvS) is probably the best move if they're scumpartners- I would advise against clearing one of being scum if the other flips scum.

For the record, I was thinking along these same lines actually.

[Ircher]

V/LA Tomorrow

This was unexpected btw.

[Ircher]

Not much tbh. Basically, your playstyle is incompatible with the way I tend to read people (based on their reads and their reasons for those reads).

[Ircher]

Not much tbh. Basically, your playstyle is incompatible with the way I tend to read people (based on their reads and their reasons for those reads).

So... you're not going to give Lovebird the proper chance to claim because you don't like their playstyle?

1) This has nothing to do with their playstyle
2) They can claim now

[Ircher]

To clarify, many others in this game scumread Lovebird, some of whom I townread and as previously mentioned, I am definitely not opposed to their Lynch.

[Ircher]

This game state is exactly why we need a lynch.

Also, I know Lalendra is on V/LA (and they'll think I'm jerk a for stating this), but I would rather

not

wait til Monday (with 1-2 days before deadline left) to decide on a lynch.

[Ircher]

actually now that i think about it

why would scum bus their most powerful PR?

this only makes sense if she's scum with you (fucking lol, highkey possible) or iconeum
or if she actually didn't get her pick after all

we need that claim in order to work this out

but you have to admit that the lovebird wagon is the town-driven one while the lalendra wagon is scum-driven

Why can’t they both be town-driven?

[Ircher]

actually now that i think about it

why would scum bus their most powerful PR?

this only makes sense if she's scum with you (fucking lol, highkey possible) or iconeum
or if she actually didn't get her pick after all

we need that claim in order to work this out

but you have to admit that the lovebird wagon is the town-driven one while the lalendra wagon is scum-driven

VC 1.21

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Lovebird (7) [L-1] -

Eddie Cane

,

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

,

Taly

, Lalendra, mutantdevle,

Ausuka

, davesaz

Lalendra (5) -

Ircher, Myloninja13, Lovebird, Iconeum,

the worst

The Janitor (1) -

Mathdino

Not voting

-

The Janitor

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-05-15 20:00:00)

Janitor not using his vote (and likely being scum) heavily implies a double town wagon gamestate.

Ausuka's implosion was different from Ircher's I think.

Nothing is really inconsistent with a {Ircher, Janitor, Ausuka} scumteam.

Actually, I’m pretty sure someone mentioned a reason why Ausuka and I couldn’t be scum together, so I don’t think that’s entirely true.

[Ircher]

Anyway, I think I still prefer a Lovebird/Lalendra Lynch atm; Math’s town case isn’t really convincing at the moment.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Lalendra

I own everyone on this wagon if and when it flips green

Choo Choo motherfuckers

Also quick note, there's confirmed a tracker/jk and a neighborizer/vendor in the top 7

Scum neighborizer is hilariously OP
if anyone claims neighborizer it basically ruins the town potential for the role so I'm OK just lynching there

Only if you are not scum.

[Ircher]

Myloninja:
1. 624 --> Basically returns The Worst's greeting -->

Nothing important here. (Null)

2. 625 --> Unvotes until they catch up -->

Null.

3. 685 --> Another "I'm catching up" post -->

Null.

4. 1164 --> Caught up and gives some reads: The Worst, Math, Dave, Saske, and Eddie are town -->

Easy reads to have imo esp. when you don't explain them; however, having easy reads isn't necessarily scum-indicative... Yet. (Null)

5. 1167 --> Jumps on to the Lalendra wagon -->

Okay, so The Worst asked Mylo to join, so I can't comment much here other than... Why did you (i.e.:

The Worst

) basically give Mylo a free pass to jump on the wagon without explaining themselves? (Null-scum)

6. 1171 --> Lalendra read is mainly because of lack of anything townish. Mentions specifically "snarky attitude" and also states they are sheeping The Worst -->

Meh, I think both town and scum can come up with this reasoning, though I'm not sure which is more likely. (Null)

7. 1173 --> "Cheep cheep. Thanks!" -->

Probably a lol-post; null.

8. 1438 --> Says they haven't been reading and will look over it when they aren't falling asleep -->

This post would have been fine if the catch up actually happened, but it did not, so it basically amounts to a prod dodge. (48 hours between their last post and this post, and 48 hours between this post and their next post.)

9. 1494 --> Declares intent to hammer [Lovebird], but suggests that we wait for Lovebird to claim first. -->

Now you take the opportunity to declare intent to hammer... And what happened to reading the thread? (Null-scum)

10. 1544 --> "I'm up to sheep my vote in any direction aside from my town reads here lol." -->

Certainly you have some scumreads? Or have you still not caught up since Wednesday or so? It is fine to sheep; however, you have to have some reads yourself, which you don't seem to really have at this game. (I mean, you had some townreads, but I think it can be reasonably argued that those reads are basically you sheeping the majority's townreads.) Or at least, give some more details on the reads you already have.

(Neutral-Scum)

11. 1547 --> "I'll go with whatever The Worst/Math end up deciding lol." -->

This post is a huge red flag imo; I honestly don't think Mylo has any scumreads of their own at the moment, and that is not good.

(Neutral-Scum)

12. 1550 --> Says that the word "Strategy" doesn't apply to them -->

Honestly, this post doesn't really mean much. (Null)

13. 1551 --> "Every scum game I've played, I've killed myself lol. I guess that's the closest I can get to a strategy?" -->

Still not useful info. (Null)

14. 1554 --> "I showed you that game, where I killed myself at day 2." -->

Null.

15. 1556 --> Naked votes Janitor -->

........ (Null)

16. 1558 --> Quotes where they said they would sheep and Math's post about lynching Janitor -->

Are you serious that you have no personal reason to scumread Janitor? (Null-scum)

17. 1562 --> Says they would self-vote atm if Mathdino/The Worst started a flashwagon on them -->

What??? (Null)

Conclusion: Here's an attractive slot to lynch for having zero contributions to the game among other things. Note though that I'm not switching wagons unless there is decent support for this lynch because we are cutting it close to deadline.

[Ircher]

1. In 1565:

all scum get better as the game goes on

they realise what makes people scumread them

True to an extent; however, I think you are also discounting the possibility that town!Janitor just had some bad opening posts. Like, I think (?) that the thread has for the most part established Janitor as being on the more lynchbaity-side of things, so I think it is a bit unreasonable to scumread them so much by their starting posts without at least acknowledging this fact to a greater extent than you seem to be doing.

2. In 1567:

The Janitor is not a newbie, lol.

More or less irrelevant; see above paragraph.

3. In 1569:

Is that scum indicative...?

Depends on the player; in The Janitor's case, I don't think so because I'm pretty sure we established that they were lynchbait regardless of alignment...

4. In 1583:

And overall:
SIMYK: 7
Ausuka: 6
Dave: 6
Taly: 6
Lalendra: 6
Math: 5
Worst: 5
Ircher: 5
Lovebird: 5
Mutant: 3
Mylo: 2

Iconeum and Janitor are not in this list for some reason. I would like to note though the lack of opinions on Mutant and Mylo; this indicates to me that they are keeping a relatively low profile. Now, Mutant's 3 are townreads, so.... But the Mylo reads are split 1-1 so this suggests Mylo could be low-profile scum that is simply watching the game state. This idea is also consistent with their ISO.

5. In 1594:

Ultimately were gonna have to accept the fact that 1 or 2 scum is being hard townread by SOMEONE

I mean, you are the primary one hard-townreading Lovebird where everyone else isn't.................

6. In 1605:

Does anyone here have significant experience/meta-knowledge with any of the following:
Lalendra
Lovebird
Almost50/davesaz
Ircher
Janitor (anyone know the main?)
Beefster/Myloninja

You should know the answer to one of those.....

7. In 1609:

- Ircher self-L-1ing because "hey **** you guys I guess there's no chance when you're not in a townbloc"

(How many times do I have to explain this. 1) This is a huge misrepresentation of the situation 2) I've explained this at least once and likely multiple times 3) I really wasn't in huge danger of being lynched, so I don't even see how that comes close to being anti-win condition esp. when the entire thing lasted for less than an hour.)

- Janitor, Ircher, and Taly collectively deciding that any draft-based reasoning is bull, and managed to avoid commenting on actual alignment-indicative things in the first 15 pages by doing little but complain about the 30% of my posts that were setup spec

This is like 50% true; I didn't say

all

draft-based reasoning was useless; I said most of it was and eventually conceded that one thing you stated regarding this wasn't. Furthermore, I stated that most of it was useless

in the current game state with no flips.

- Janitor never voting or displaying any reads

I would have to doublecheck, but I don't this is entirely true?

- Random people deciding that a real great idea right now would be to lynch Iconeum, the only guaranteed PR

Who said that in the past 7 pages?

8. In 1611:

And draft based reasoning DEFINITELY isn't bull, its just something we can't really do anything about until later in the game with flips.

I agree with this.

9. In 1647:

if you think i'm scum on lalendra's townflip then that's your fault for being on a town-lalendra, not mine

i'm entirely open to lynching you (as opposed to icon/janitor) tomorrow if you don't get with the program lol

Yeah, I retract my earlier statement; that was really silly.

10. In 1648:

1. The gamesolvers who will get nightkilled (in descending order of nightkill probability):
the worst, Mathdino, SIMYK, Eddie Cane.

Eh, I would reverse the positions of SIMYK and Mathdino but w/e.

- the worst is in charge of Doing What Mathdino Would Do after I die. Eddie Cane is in charge of reads generation. This also means the worst is in charge of sheeping Eddie Cane when appropriate.

I could accept this.

[Ircher]

go metadive myloninja

he's townier as scum (which isn't saying much because he self-hammered in lylo and NK'd himself once)

he spent an entire mini down to 3p lylo being completely useless and doing literally nothing being on every single person's lynch order
he openly voted any wagon that wasn't him on the basis that it wasn't him
and then self-voted at some point

i don't understand people's willingness to scumcase people without checking their meta

basically if he's scum he's purposefully mimicking my experience with him because he knows my affinity for metadiving him in particular

Fine, we stick to Lovebird/Lalendra today, preferably Lalendra.

[Ircher]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+74%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general. (I mean, I could probably point out some specifics, but is that really necessary?)

The Worst

(+65%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Taly

(+60%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(+20%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Setup aside, we get posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game. It is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. (After seeing SIMYK's case on me, I may have misinterpreted Mathdino's actions here to a certain degree.) Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am quite suspicious. Also, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. 821 is a good course of action tbh. Not sure what to make of the hard defense of Lovebird.

Also, if Lovebird/Lalendra flips scum, I think this is where we should look next.

(If they flip town, I'll have to reconsider.)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Ausuka

(+38%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here. I'd also like to note that the fact they are willing to reconsider whether I am scum is probably town-motivated; I don't really see scum missing the golden opportunity that is wagoning me. 1572 is a good post.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+37%) - Honestly feel that this slot is scum; however, this is more gut-based versus fact-based. Still scum-vibe; don't really like 931 either. Didn't like how he votes me AFTER the self-vote stuff is finished when he could have done so well before the self-vote shenanigans. 1192 is fairly good and clarifies his earlier voting reasons. Eddie's "holistic scumhunting" strikes me as townie for some reason... 1576 is a good post and reinforces Ausuka's 1572. I would be very surprised if scum goes to the trouble of making 1583.

Iconeum

(+34%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me. Some decent posts here and there, but nothing really major. The fact they don't seem to be doing too much suggests this might be scum.

Almost50

davesaz

(+33%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads... I townread the self-voting shenanigans even if that isn't necessarily alignment indicative in general... Though, I agree with Iconeum's 1154 regarding davesaz's 1152.

Lovebird

(-31%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-36%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment. Still am not fond of this slot's contributions...

The Janitor

(-50%) - His first two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111), and a few of his subsequent posts weren't that great either. However, it is possible I am placing too much emphasis on their early game as their more recent posts have been slightly better (though not necessarily townie), and the original formation of the Janitor wagon has no counterwagon at its peak.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-51%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post. After noticing only 3 posts though, I am not as confident in this read. 1164 is imo a fairly easy stance to take, but I will reserve judgement for the time being. Their ISO reads as not reading the game, not wanting to take stances, and as basically trying to coast by. If we don't want to do Lalendra/Lovebird, I think this would be a good lynch as well. Perhaps even more so than Lalendra/Lovebird lynches, though we don't get nearly as much info. The lack of reads here overall (see Eddie's huge post) reinforces the idea that they are trying to slip under the radar. Mathdino though says that their meta suggests they're town, so....

Lalendra

(-52%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635. I don't like their catchup posts (1081 for instance), and I feel that some of their interpretations are out-of-context or unfair. The tone of her posts don't seem to match what she means, not sure if this is common for her.[/i]

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

and your reads lists are pretty consistently near-unreadable because you seem to never delete anything off of it

I do occassionally delete things from them.

[Ircher]

@Math --> Here, I trimmed down the read list some and deleted some of the obselete information and reorganized other information. Perhaps this will be more useful to you?

​

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+74%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general. (I mean, I could probably point out some specifics, but is that really necessary?)

The Worst

(+65%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Taly

(+60%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(+20%) - Some of his early reads were based on the draft numbers, which is okay to an extent. I still think his first 100 posts were or more less though along the lines of my original thoughts on the slot. 118 was a pretty good post. As a side note, SIMYK's case on me makes me think I may have misinterpreted some of Math's actions. In addition to the setup-related posts, we have posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game: it is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am on the suspicious side. Nonetheless, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. Another thing I like here is 821; it sounds like a good course of action tbh. On the other hand, I really don't like their hard defense of Lovebird (as well as Lalendra a bit earlier).

Indeed, for that reason, if Lovebird/Lalendra flips scum, I think this is where we should look next.

(If they flip town, I'll have to reconsider.)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Ausuka

(+38%) - Their posts have been in general decent, but nothing really exceptional in my opinion. One thing that makes me lean towards town is that they were willing to reconsider whether I was town; it could be for the town!cred, but honestly, I think scum!Ausuka would benefit more from not doing anything. I also liked their 1572.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+37%) - At first, I felt that this slot was scum, and that continued to be my sentiment as of 931. His latter posts are better. For instance, 1192 is fairly good, and it clarifies his earlier voting reasons. 1576 is another good post and reinforces Ausuka's 1572 that the Lovebird towncase was not really good. Another thing that makes me lean town here is the holistic scumhunting idea: I would be a bit surprised if scum goes to the trouble of making 1583 (though I wouldn't rule it out).

Almost50

davesaz

(+32%) - I townread him minorly for the suggestion he made in 75. Though, tbqh, I am not sure that this slot has done much better in terms of reads. While I probably should not, I townread Almost50 self-voting themselves. In regards to davesaz, I agree with Iconeum's 1154 regarding davesaz's 1152, but for the most part, davesaz hasn't done much that makes me lean either way. The majority of this read is based on Almost50.

Iconeum

(+31%) - His initial posts are not great, but they aren't necessarily super bad either. While he does have some decent posts here and there, he is not doing much in general, so I'm starting to doubt that this slot is town.

Lovebird

(-31%) - They have very few useful posts. I haven't really expanded much on this read because their method of play is overall incompatible with the way I formulate reads.

Mutantdevle

(-36%) - His first several posts deal pretty much entirely with the setup; see 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. He does eventually present some reads in 249, though I consider the presented reads to be on the easy-side to make. Overall though, I haven't really seen anything to comment on with this slot; they are here, but they have not been contributing much.

The Janitor

(-42%) - His first two posts didn't register well with me (105 and 111), and some of his subsequent posts weren't that great either. That said, his more recent posts seem to me to be better, which leads me to the conclusion that this slot may be scummy!town, if you understand what I mean. That said, I definitely wouldn't mind lynching here; however, I think I need to reevaluate this read as a whole.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-51%) - While I really didn't like any of Beefster's posts, Beefster only had 3 posts, so I feel that I initially emphasized those posts too much. On the other hand, Myloninja isn't doing anything to make me change my opinion of the slot. They seem to not be in-sync with the game, they don't appear to have any major opinions of their own, and they seem to be a bit comfortable actually with the game state. (I don't really even see an effort to gamesolve.) In essense, I feel like they are scum trying to coast by. Nonetheless, Mathdino suggests Myloninja is more likely town by meta, so...........

Lalendra

(-52%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635. I don't like their catchup posts (1081 for instance), and I feel that some of their interpretations are out-of-context or unfair. The tone of her posts don't seem to match what she means, not sure if this is common for her.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

[Ircher]

1. In 1669:

It gets worse later in Math's ISO. I really don't like his continuously growing scumread on myself, but ofcourse I'm a bit biased here.
If anything, he should be unwilling to lynch me even as scum because of

low-scum utility power role.

???

2. In 1685:

and now I come back with an effort post/case which is pretty damn good if i say so myself (better scumcontent then EITHER wagon right now) and I'm being scumread for it.

And how exactly is your case better than either the Lalendra or Lovebird cases? I think that

at best

, the case for dave!scum is about as good as the cases for Lalendra!scum and scum!Lovebird.

[Ircher]

can we L-1 lalendra already

(Also, can they please go ahead and claim now?)

[Ircher]

(Why do we always wait everything out til deadline....?)

[Ircher]

Lalendra:

1. 221 --> Wants to sheep Math cuz "always power town"; also asks about Math's Beefster/Taly reads -->

Not much to say here. (Null)

2. 222 --> Asks "why" in response to Mathdino saying we should policy lynch vengeful -->

Null.

3. 223 --> Likes SIMYK's posts but find them hard to read and thus skims them -->

Okay. (Null)

4. 224 --> Now they are getting used to SIMYK's posts. -->

(Null)

5. 256 --> States "tell me you're not serious" in response to Mutant's 240 about whether the games where the mod chooses the scum actually happened. -->

Again, not alignment-indicative in any way. (Null)

6. 257 --> Complains about SIMYK capitalizing PRESENT everywhere except once -->

Noting that this is the last post Lalendra made that Friday. The next one isn't til Monday because of weekend V/LA. Other than that, nothing to comment regarding Lalendra except perhaps the lack of stating any reads. (Null)

7. 692 --> Apologizes for not declaring weekend V/LA and promises to make a more substantial post later. -->

Lalendra did actually do what she promised here. (Null)

8. 1074 --> Response to Mathdino's request for people not to do chronological catch ups. -->

Null.

9. 1075 --> "DEAD" in response to what brassherald said in 410. -->

Null.

10. 1076 --> Wants to agree with everything Mutant states in 415, but they are waiting to catch up completely first -->

Meh... (Null)

11. In 1079:
A: Quotes Ausuka's 419 and says it reinforces their Ircher scumlean -->

Okay. (Null)

B: "...You literally posted an entire wall (much of which was "fair enough, null") and then two posts later everyone is either null or neutral (not sure I understand the need to separate those) except you (shocking) and one person whose "posts continue to not really be good". That's it?" -->

This is to some extent true, and it is to some extent not true. I think I've explained both before so........... (Null)

C: "That's actually part of the reason I'm having trouble sorting him, usually when we play he is town and I'm convinced he's scum. The fact that he's acting towny gives me more pause than if I was certain he was scum." in response to The Worst's 458 -->

Okay, here is some kind of read on mutant... (Null)

D: "The numbers aren't randomized at all, the art of picking numbers is half of the strategy in this setup for both scum and town. Nevermind, apparently Math already explained that." -->

It wasn't necessary for you to repost this especially when you acknowledge Math already explained this. (Null)

E: "Up to page 23" -->

I kinda expect you to be giving more in useful info by this point, but I'll wait to read the end of your catch up. (Null)

12. In 1081:
A: States in response to Taly's 550 that there is a huge difference between randomized numbers and carefully chosen numbers that appear random because one does not know the underlying logic -->

Was there really a need to comment on this a second time? (Null)

B: "FWIW, when I played with Taly before and they posted walls that irritated me on-sight, they were town." -->

Okay. (Null)

C: "Ausuka's <post>568</post> is super waffly in terms of a read on Ircher. I've never seen someone flip-flop that much on one person in one post." -->

You still never answered about taking into account Ausuka's meta experience with me when you make this kind of read, so............ (Null-scum)

D: "I am still not seeing why people are accusing Math of doing ONLY setup spec. Like, in the first couple of pages, sure. Things have changed a lot since then. And in contrast with Mutant, I actually do think this is town!Math." in response to my 580 -->

Don't extrapolate my post so fast; I am 99% sure that you extrapolated my post from being a response to someone's question to my read at that time on Math. I am 99% sure that I was clarifying an earlier read I had on Math there versus stating my current read on the slot. (Null)

E: "Math's <post>621</post> is pure art. I'm not even going to respond to the wagon on me and all the back-and-forth because it was based on RVS posting and my absence since then, which I already explained." -->

It really would have been nice to actually tell us what 621 says, but oh well... As to the latter part, that's fair. (Null)

F: "Weirdly defensive" in response to my 833 -->

Honestly, it depends on how you read it. That said, it is evident that your bias towards me being scum makes you conclude that it is weirdly defensive first. I won't deny though that one could interpret the post that way; it just isn't the best way imo. (Null)

G: "Weird, the only other person in danger of being lynched today, besides me, prefers that I be the one to be lynched. CRAZY" -->

Okay, but how exactly is that crazy? This is confirmation bias showing... (Null)

13. 1082 --> Failed vote on me. -->

I think this vote is legitimate; however, I don't think it is a reasonable vote, at least not for the reasons that Lalendra has pointed out so far in their ISO. (Null-scum)

14. 1083 --> Correctly votes me -->

No comment; see above comment.

15. 1084 --> Asks the Worst why he "hates" Lalendra -->

.... (Null)

16. In 1185:
A: "1) I already outlined all my reasons in my catch-up posts. 2) I also addressed this, but since more has happened, I'll say this: I'm not understanding ducky's tunneling on me, most of the other votes were because of lack of activity (NAI) and tone (my tone is inconsistent af, it depends entirely on my mood and not at all on my alignment). It's horseshit. 3) I'll post a readslist after this." in response to Taly's three questions in 1085 (Ircher scumread, Lalendra wagon thoughts, and a reads list) -->

I don't remember, though I may be wrong, anyone originally scumreading Lalendra for tone-related reasons. (Null)

B: Clarifies to Mutant's 1086 that what she meant in 1081 was that Math was playing to his town meta whereas Mutant thought Math was not doing that -->

Good clarification. (Null)

C: "I wasn't saying that neutral and null meant the same thing in your readslist, I understand that they don't. I'm saying I don't understand the need to separate them. In that it seems nitpicky. Essentially yes, I understand the system you're using, I just don't agree with it. We're saying the same thing." in response to my 1088 -->

Okay, first of all, you are using this as a reason to scumread me if I am reading correctly. Second, even if you didn't explicitly state such, you consider them on a semantic level to be the same, which is not the case as I explained. Third, this is hardly an acknowledgement or an understanding of the system being used. And no, you are not saying the same thing, not even close. (Null-scum)

D: "You may want to start at least considering an AU in which you believe I'm town and exploring how that would inform your gameplay because if I flip, you're going to need to start somewhere." in response to The Worst's 1151 -->

Typical appeal to emotion. (Null)

17. 1205 --> Complains about Math's assessment of Lalendra in 1190 -->

Okay..... (Null)

18. 1206 --> "And yeah, the self-meta in my sig is something that would help me as scum. But since I never roll scum (which sucks because I love it) it's mostly just there to say 'anything you're thinking about me based on my tone, interactions, reads, or anything else is less likely because I'm scum and more likely because you don't like my playstyle.'" -->

Okay, if due to your playstyle, you cannot be read based on your tone, on your interactions, or on your reads, how are we supposed to read you Like, this is a non-defense.

(Neutral-scum)

19. 1210 --> Says that 1205 wasn't very serious in response to Math's 1207 -->

Besides the discrepancy in tone and interpretation (which I think is important, but I'll give Lalendra a pass on that), how exactly can a post like that be not serious? You seemed pretty serious then. Also, I think the town response here would be "yes" or "yes, but....." rather than an attempt to deemphasize the post. Like, I highly doubt anyone would be more inclined to lynch you if the post was serious especially if you stated it was.

(Scum)

20. 1267 --> Asks how she is playing a nullgame in response to The Worst's 1222 -->

I'm not going to comment on this. (Null)

21. 1269 --> Response to 1254 -->

You seem to understand it better now, so good. (Null)

22. 1271 --> "Because my humor is very sarcastic and when I say something harsh, 98% of the time it's in jest." in response to my 1254 -->

I'm not convinced. Also, is there a particular need to separate 1269 and 1271 considering they reference the same post? (Null-scum)

23. 1274 --> "Nope" in response to 1268 -->

.... (Null)

24. 1275 --> "Nope" in response to 1270 -->

.... (Null)

25. 1276 --> "Still nope" in response to 1273 -->

There really wasn't a need to respond three times to what was basically trolling. (Null)

26. 1289 --> Quotes their Ircher read in response to Davesaz's 1289 -->

Yeah, this case isn't really that great.... It has some merit, but very little. (Null)

27. 1290 --> Reads list -->

1) How does davesaz move your read from null to townlean? 2) How is Myloninja anything but a null read? If I assume your reads list is ordered, I would expect Mylo to at least be at the bottom of the townlean section (Null-scum)

28. 1296 --> "I'm sorry, I just really don't have the energy right now to go through and highlight things. If I say "I agree with everything this person said," then what that person said are my reasons in that post. I don't really know what else you want.I'm not trying to be grumpy I just really don't feel well so maybe I'll just come back to the thread when I'm in a better spot." -->

Okay. (Null)

29. 1297 --> Frustrated because feels lynch isn't justified -->

Okay. (Null)

30. 1306 --> Asks "whose alignments" in response to Eddie's 1299 -->

I can't tell what Eddie was asking based on the snippet provided in Lalendra's post, so...... (Null)

31. 1307 --> Says they have no meta experience with Ausuka in response to 1307 -->

Not at all what I was referring to... (Null-scum)

32. 1308 --> Lols at Mutant and says will respond to Taly's question when not on a phone -->

Null.

33. 1430 --> "I have much less scum experience so I tend to be pretty aggressive and tunnel on people moreso than I do as town." in response to Eddie's 1309 -->

If I'm reading this correctly (and if you wrote this correctly), I'm actually more convinced you are scum due to your tunnel on Ausuka and I and how aggressive your posts have been in general. Just sayin'. (Null-scum)

34. 1431 --> Response to Taly's 1302 -->

I'm not going to bother going through this... (Null)

35. 1432 --> "...You're making reads without remembering why? And just coasting on that instead of taking new information into account?" in response to Lovebird's 1345 -->

Blatant misrepresentation of Lovebird's post; notice that Lovebird DIDN'T cross out Janitor/Myloninja BECAUSE they couldn't remember why they were town. The list is obviously who they think is scum.

(Neutral-scum)

36. 1433 --> "The thing people seem to keep forgetting when harping on my fluffposting is that we were still within hours of the game starting. It exploded over the weekend and I did my best to catch up and contribute meaningful content at that point." in response to 1419 -->

Okay, but what about The Worst's other points? You seem to have a habit of having selective hearing this game tbqh... (Null-scum)

37. 1434 --> Response to The Worst's 1422 -->

Okay. (Null)

38. 1435 --> Switches to Lovebird because Ircher wagon isn't going anywhere and "not a fan of Lovebird's recent posting at all" -->

You only comment once on Lovebird's recent posts, and it wasn't even a fair representation of Lovebird's post. (Null-scum)

39. 1436 --> "Yes, let's cast anti-town votes just to exchange information. Ugh, this town deserves to lose." -->

Question: Are you being serious here?

(Serious question.) (Null)

40. 1440 --> Asks if the group wants them to claim -->

Yes. It would've been better if you didn't wait until your V/LA to ask. (Null)

41. 1458 --> Asks not to be lynched while V/LA -->

When deadline is this close and you are one of the top lynch candidates, it really isn't fair to ask for this. I mean, I understand why, but it isn't fair to everyone else. (Null)

Conclusion:

Absolutely none of this ISO reads as town. On the other hand, quite a few things stand out as scum-motivated imo, and barring that, I still think that this is the best case we have at the moment.

[Ircher]

@LALENDRA: PLEASE CLAIM IMMEDIATELY; THANK YOU!

[Ircher]

Do you have anything to add @Lovebird?

[Ircher]

No.

[Ircher]

Well, Math might think something different....

[Ircher]

Ok ircher can fuck off with the bolded caps, I'm claiming because math requested it and hadn't done so in response to ircher's previous requests for some weird reason...oh that's right, I was V/LA! Ha ha. Silly me.

Sorry my V/LA was inconvenient, it was for something that I do every single year, so...sorry not sorry? Also I have pneumonia and am tired of being called lynchbaity, bad, or a liability, so I'm done defending myself. Not gonna self-vote because it's a pussy move but if I die, Math will ride all your asses into the ground.

Town role cop. Planning on following maths plan if I live to N1.

Okay, I've been quite rude, but at the same time, you have to understand that deadline is right around the corner, and a good portion of the game is stalled waiting on said claim.

[Ircher]

Are you kidding me?
VOTE: No Lynch

We seem quite intent on a No Lynch it seems.

[Ircher]

Lalendra:

1. 221 --> Wants to sheep Math cuz "always power town"; also asks about Math's Beefster/Taly reads -->

Not much to say here. (Null)

2. 222 --> Asks "why" in response to Mathdino saying we should policy lynch vengeful -->

Null.

3. 223 --> Likes SIMYK's posts but find them hard to read and thus skims them -->

Okay. (Null)

4. 224 --> Now they are getting used to SIMYK's posts. -->

(Null)

5. 256 --> States "tell me you're not serious" in response to Mutant's 240 about whether the games where the mod chooses the scum actually happened. -->

Again, not alignment-indicative in any way. (Null)

6. 257 --> Complains about SIMYK capitalizing PRESENT everywhere except once -->

Noting that this is the last post Lalendra made that Friday. The next one isn't til Monday because of weekend V/LA. Other than that, nothing to comment regarding Lalendra except perhaps the lack of stating any reads. (Null)

7. 692 --> Apologizes for not declaring weekend V/LA and promises to make a more substantial post later. -->

Lalendra did actually do what she promised here. (Null)

8. 1074 --> Response to Mathdino's request for people not to do chronological catch ups. -->

Null.

9. 1075 --> "DEAD" in response to what brassherald said in 410. -->

Null.

10. 1076 --> Wants to agree with everything Mutant states in 415, but they are waiting to catch up completely first -->

Meh... (Null)

11. In 1079:
A: Quotes Ausuka's 419 and says it reinforces their Ircher scumlean -->

Okay. (Null)

B: "...You literally posted an entire wall (much of which was "fair enough, null") and then two posts later everyone is either null or neutral (not sure I understand the need to separate those) except you (shocking) and one person whose "posts continue to not really be good". That's it?" -->

This is to some extent true, and it is to some extent not true. I think I've explained both before so........... (Null)

C: "That's actually part of the reason I'm having trouble sorting him, usually when we play he is town and I'm convinced he's scum. The fact that he's acting towny gives me more pause than if I was certain he was scum." in response to The Worst's 458 -->

Okay, here is some kind of read on mutant... (Null)

D: "The numbers aren't randomized at all, the art of picking numbers is half of the strategy in this setup for both scum and town. Nevermind, apparently Math already explained that." -->

It wasn't necessary for you to repost this especially when you acknowledge Math already explained this. (Null)

E: "Up to page 23" -->

I kinda expect you to be giving more in useful info by this point, but I'll wait to read the end of your catch up. (Null)

12. In 1081:
A: States in response to Taly's 550 that there is a huge difference between randomized numbers and carefully chosen numbers that appear random because one does not know the underlying logic -->

Was there really a need to comment on this a second time? (Null)

B: "FWIW, when I played with Taly before and they posted walls that irritated me on-sight, they were town." -->

Okay. (Null)

C: "Ausuka's <post>568</post> is super waffly in terms of a read on Ircher. I've never seen someone flip-flop that much on one person in one post." -->

You still never answered about taking into account Ausuka's meta experience with me when you make this kind of read, so............ (Null-scum)

D: "I am still not seeing why people are accusing Math of doing ONLY setup spec. Like, in the first couple of pages, sure. Things have changed a lot since then. And in contrast with Mutant, I actually do think this is town!Math." in response to my 580 -->

Don't extrapolate my post so fast; I am 99% sure that you extrapolated my post from being a response to someone's question to my read at that time on Math. I am 99% sure that I was clarifying an earlier read I had on Math there versus stating my current read on the slot. (Null)

E: "Math's <post>621</post> is pure art. I'm not even going to respond to the wagon on me and all the back-and-forth because it was based on RVS posting and my absence since then, which I already explained." -->

It really would have been nice to actually tell us what 621 says, but oh well... As to the latter part, that's fair. (Null)

F: "Weirdly defensive" in response to my 833 -->

Honestly, it depends on how you read it. That said, it is evident that your bias towards me being scum makes you conclude that it is weirdly defensive first. I won't deny though that one could interpret the post that way; it just isn't the best way imo. (Null)

G: "Weird, the only other person in danger of being lynched today, besides me, prefers that I be the one to be lynched. CRAZY" -->

Okay, but how exactly is that crazy? This is confirmation bias showing... (Null)

13. 1082 --> Failed vote on me. -->

I think this vote is legitimate; however, I don't think it is a reasonable vote, at least not for the reasons that Lalendra has pointed out so far in their ISO. (Null-scum)

14. 1083 --> Correctly votes me -->

No comment; see above comment.

15. 1084 --> Asks the Worst why he "hates" Lalendra -->

.... (Null)

16. In 1185:
A: "1) I already outlined all my reasons in my catch-up posts. 2) I also addressed this, but since more has happened, I'll say this: I'm not understanding ducky's tunneling on me, most of the other votes were because of lack of activity (NAI) and tone (my tone is inconsistent af, it depends entirely on my mood and not at all on my alignment). It's horseshit. 3) I'll post a readslist after this." in response to Taly's three questions in 1085 (Ircher scumread, Lalendra wagon thoughts, and a reads list) -->

I don't remember, though I may be wrong, anyone originally scumreading Lalendra for tone-related reasons. (Null)

B: Clarifies to Mutant's 1086 that what she meant in 1081 was that Math was playing to his town meta whereas Mutant thought Math was not doing that -->

Good clarification. (Null)

C: "I wasn't saying that neutral and null meant the same thing in your readslist, I understand that they don't. I'm saying I don't understand the need to separate them. In that it seems nitpicky. Essentially yes, I understand the system you're using, I just don't agree with it. We're saying the same thing." in response to my 1088 -->

Okay, first of all, you are using this as a reason to scumread me if I am reading correctly. Second, even if you didn't explicitly state such, you consider them on a semantic level to be the same, which is not the case as I explained. Third, this is hardly an acknowledgement or an understanding of the system being used. And no, you are not saying the same thing, not even close. (Null-scum)

D: "You may want to start at least considering an AU in which you believe I'm town and exploring how that would inform your gameplay because if I flip, you're going to need to start somewhere." in response to The Worst's 1151 -->

Typical appeal to emotion. (Null)

17. 1205 --> Complains about Math's assessment of Lalendra in 1190 -->

Okay..... (Null)

18. 1206 --> "And yeah, the self-meta in my sig is something that would help me as scum. But since I never roll scum (which sucks because I love it) it's mostly just there to say 'anything you're thinking about me based on my tone, interactions, reads, or anything else is less likely because I'm scum and more likely because you don't like my playstyle.'" -->

Okay, if due to your playstyle, you cannot be read based on your tone, on your interactions, or on your reads, how are we supposed to read you Like, this is a non-defense.

(Neutral-scum)

19. 1210 --> Says that 1205 wasn't very serious in response to Math's 1207 -->

Besides the discrepancy in tone and interpretation (which I think is important, but I'll give Lalendra a pass on that), how exactly can a post like that be not serious? You seemed pretty serious then. Also, I think the town response here would be "yes" or "yes, but....." rather than an attempt to deemphasize the post. Like, I highly doubt anyone would be more inclined to lynch you if the post was serious especially if you stated it was.

(Scum)

20. 1267 --> Asks how she is playing a nullgame in response to The Worst's 1222 -->

I'm not going to comment on this. (Null)

21. 1269 --> Response to 1254 -->

You seem to understand it better now, so good. (Null)

22. 1271 --> "Because my humor is very sarcastic and when I say something harsh, 98% of the time it's in jest." in response to my 1254 -->

I'm not convinced. Also, is there a particular need to separate 1269 and 1271 considering they reference the same post? (Null-scum)

23. 1274 --> "Nope" in response to 1268 -->

.... (Null)

24. 1275 --> "Nope" in response to 1270 -->

.... (Null)

25. 1276 --> "Still nope" in response to 1273 -->

There really wasn't a need to respond three times to what was basically trolling. (Null)

26. 1289 --> Quotes their Ircher read in response to Davesaz's 1289 -->

Yeah, this case isn't really that great.... It has some merit, but very little. (Null)

27. 1290 --> Reads list -->

1) How does davesaz move your read from null to townlean? 2) How is Myloninja anything but a null read? If I assume your reads list is ordered, I would expect Mylo to at least be at the bottom of the townlean section (Null-scum)

28. 1296 --> "I'm sorry, I just really don't have the energy right now to go through and highlight things. If I say "I agree with everything this person said," then what that person said are my reasons in that post. I don't really know what else you want.I'm not trying to be grumpy I just really don't feel well so maybe I'll just come back to the thread when I'm in a better spot." -->

Okay. (Null)

29. 1297 --> Frustrated because feels lynch isn't justified -->

Okay. (Null)

30. 1306 --> Asks "whose alignments" in response to Eddie's 1299 -->

I can't tell what Eddie was asking based on the snippet provided in Lalendra's post, so...... (Null)

31. 1307 --> Says they have no meta experience with Ausuka in response to 1307 -->

Not at all what I was referring to... (Null-scum)

32. 1308 --> Lols at Mutant and says will respond to Taly's question when not on a phone -->

Null.

33. 1430 --> "I have much less scum experience so I tend to be pretty aggressive and tunnel on people moreso than I do as town." in response to Eddie's 1309 -->

If I'm reading this correctly (and if you wrote this correctly), I'm actually more convinced you are scum due to your tunnel on Ausuka and I and how aggressive your posts have been in general. Just sayin'. (Null-scum)

34. 1431 --> Response to Taly's 1302 -->

I'm not going to bother going through this... (Null)

35. 1432 --> "...You're making reads without remembering why? And just coasting on that instead of taking new information into account?" in response to Lovebird's 1345 -->

Blatant misrepresentation of Lovebird's post; notice that Lovebird DIDN'T cross out Janitor/Myloninja BECAUSE they couldn't remember why they were town. The list is obviously who they think is scum.

(Neutral-scum)

36. 1433 --> "The thing people seem to keep forgetting when harping on my fluffposting is that we were still within hours of the game starting. It exploded over the weekend and I did my best to catch up and contribute meaningful content at that point." in response to 1419 -->

Okay, but what about The Worst's other points? You seem to have a habit of having selective hearing this game tbqh... (Null-scum)

37. 1434 --> Response to The Worst's 1422 -->

Okay. (Null)

38. 1435 --> Switches to Lovebird because Ircher wagon isn't going anywhere and "not a fan of Lovebird's recent posting at all" -->

You only comment once on Lovebird's recent posts, and it wasn't even a fair representation of Lovebird's post. (Null-scum)

39. 1436 --> "Yes, let's cast anti-town votes just to exchange information. Ugh, this town deserves to lose." -->

Question: Are you being serious here?

(Serious question.) (Null)

40. 1440 --> Asks if the group wants them to claim -->

Yes. It would've been better if you didn't wait until your V/LA to ask. (Null)

41. 1458 --> Asks not to be lynched while V/LA -->

When deadline is this close and you are one of the top lynch candidates, it really isn't fair to ask for this. I mean, I understand why, but it isn't fair to everyone else. (Null)

Conclusion:

Absolutely none of this ISO reads as town. On the other hand, quite a few things stand out as scum-motivated imo, and barring that, I still think that this is the best case we have at the moment.

[Ircher]

Try 18, 19, and 35 for starters.

[Ircher]

Fine.
VOTE: Ausuka

[Ircher]

Beats a No Lynch.

[Ircher]

@Eddie --> Thoughts on Ausuka?

[Ircher]

Mathdino

mutantdevle

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Ausuka

the worst

davesaz replaced Almost50

Eddie Cane replaced brassherald

Lalendra*

Myloninja13* replaced Beefster*

The Janitor

Lovebird**

Iconeum*
Taly

Ircher

* denotes a pro

[Ircher]

And no, that's not a list of who I think is scum.

[Ircher]

Question: What if scum have a roleblocker?

[Ircher]

@Lalendra --> Ausuka Y/N?

[Ircher]

I think Janitor or me would be the best choices. Both of us had major wagons today at some point.

[Ircher]

I think Janitor or me would be the best choices. Both of us had major wagons today at some point.

Plus, why would we cop check Eddie/Math other than paranoia? I think that can be resolved later...

[Ircher]

Hammer time
VOTE: Lovebird

[Ircher]

You or SIMYK most likely.

[Ircher]

Right now, not really.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Mutant

[Ircher]

Fyi, I'm not against a Janitor lynch. I just think that Mutant has been more or less useless all game despite having nearly as many posts as me.

[Ircher]

Your post reminds me of this (though I was actually scum that game...)

can it really just be as simple as MMM and ircher

[Ircher]

You answered "why a Mutant vote" right in your post. Look right below where you asked the question.

Pedit: This is @Taly

Also, I still think lynching confirmed scum

may

generally be the better move? But I don't disagree with a Janitor lynch simply due to the info it gives and the fact that the case is there to some extent or another.

[Ircher]

So Mutant is confirmed scum solely based off not really being present or providing an opinion? What do you think about Lalendra, then?

You misinterpret me; I don't want to vote The Janitor atm because that would be a L-1 vote (and I want Iconeum to claim results). I also don't want to vote Lalendra atm because if they are conf!scum, that really isn't gonna accomplish anything unless a lynch happens, which right now is unlikely. Finally, regarding Mutant, yes, I think he has a good chance of scum because he has been in this thread and posted about as many times as me yet I feel like next to none of his posts have been substantial in any way; maybe 8% of his posts are substantial in some way and the rest is 100% useless stuff.

[Ircher]

V/LA May 25 to June 1

I should be able to post occassionally, but it will be hard to keep up with the thread during that time period.

Pedit: I don't think that necessarily is true.

[Ircher]

And I'm not saying for Taly specificly, I mean in general.

[Ircher]

do you not have anything to my meta read of mutant?

Point me to it?

[Ircher]

Ok, I'll give Mutant the benefit of the doubt for today at least.

I am not going to vote Janitor to L-1 until Icon posts his votes at least so UNVOTE: for now.

[Ircher]

*posts his results, not votes

[Ircher]

I know the worst, and you know the worst, and there is a 0% chance that the worst would ever jailkeep you after explicitly agreeing to my plan. He jailed Eddie Cane, dude. If not Eddie, then mutantdevle.

We're massclaiming. First step is everyone claiming VT vs PR. This can go in any order. Then we have to determine some optimal order for everyone claiming what roles they went for (VTs will still need to claim this down the line).

Not VT.

[Ircher]

So, should I full-claim now or no?

[Ircher]

I agree with your point about Lalendra... But let's wait for SIMYK to get here first....

[Ircher]

Okay, so that's interesting....

[Ircher]

Lalendra is also confirmed role cop, though that was basically a given.

[Ircher]

Iconeum 1 - Cop

the worst 3 - Jailkeeper

Lalendra 5 - Role Cop
Ircher 11 - Neighborizer
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis 413 - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop
Mathdino 2 - 1-Shot Vigilante
The Janitor 2 - VT, ?

Beefster/Myloninja 4 - VT, Tracker

Taly 4 - VT, Neighborizer
Almost50/Davesaz 8 - VT, Neighborizer
mutantdevle 8 - VT, ?
Ausuka 6 - VT, Neighborizer

Lovebird 6 - VT, Tracker

brassherald/Eddie Cane 6 - VT, Tracker

[Ircher]

So, we lynch Janitor under the assumption that they fakeclaimed VT and then we lynch Icon IF Janitor flips town?

Pedit: I mean, everyone loves Neighborizer! Not sure about tracker though....

[Ircher]

I really think Janitor should've full-claimed before SIMYK claimed. Now if Janitor claims what they picked, it won't matter because they know the entire setup basically.

[Ircher]

And that's true.

Okay, I got to be honest:

If the scum team is Lalendra/Janitor, I really don't see a good candidate for the third scum.
Same for Lalendra/Iconeum.

I guess this is more of me saying that the third scum is likely deep!wolfing rather than someone who is currently scumread by a good proportion of the players.

[Ircher]

SIMYK, why do you think the vig is likely to be Mafia?

My INITIAL assumption was that town would stick to the plan Math-sensei had provided and shot Ausuka-chan for being the COUNTERWAGON to a town lynch, EVEN if that read was town the INFORMATION gained would be highly useful

HOWEVER I do must believe that Math-sensei would be the one whom would contradict his plans and for GOOD reason as well! So I no longer HOLD this belief (•̀o•́)ง

And that's true.

Okay, I got to be honest:

If the scum team is Lalendra/Janitor, I really don't see a good candidate for the third scum.
Same for Lalendra/Iconeum.

I guess this is more of me saying that the third scum is likely deep!wolfing rather than someone who is currently scumread by a good proportion of the players.

Whom have you considered thus far? My pick thus far would be DAVESAZ as the third and I do not realy see him as deep wolfing (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

Oh yeah, I forgot davesaz.

But I was actually expecting you to be the Doctor/Roleblocker, so that was kinda a surprise. Anyway, I probably should reread the thread, but if I were to conjecture a third, I feel like you would have a good chance. I mean, you are basically universally townread (so was The Worst tbqh) and are in a position of the draft that could point to you being scum. This is again, more or less a conjecture that I'm not pursuing for quite awhile, just a thought I had.

I feel at this point that Mathdino basically is likely town because I don't think scum would risk defecting from plans when said deviation is liable to get them lynch; furthermore, I feel that if Mathdino is scum, they will be lynched eventually.

I've also considered Eddie being scum, but honestly, this consideration has no basis in fact and is more me just thinking randomly.

[Ircher]

Night Actions:
Iconeum copped ??? --> No result
I neighborized Taly --> Successful
Mathdino vigged Myloninja --> Successful
The Worst jailed ??? --> ???
Mafia killed The Worst --> Successful

[Ircher]

skitter30?

timestamps and turn of phrase match up

it's not necessarily just style, it's who was online when

people should really be giving more thoughts on iconeum literally claiming roleblocked

I mean, didn't we basically agree that there is like a 0.00000001% chance The Worst jailed Iconeum? Iconeum should probably claim who they targeted though before day end.

Pedit: Currently, it is primarily a conjecture, more so a possibility rather than a probability at this point.

[Ircher]

Okay, I narrowed down the people that The Worst could have targeted down to 5. 4 if you exclude Iconeum.

[Ircher]

Sorry, it was actually 6/5 and it was basically based on what we know right now, not based on what was discussed N1:
The Worst's Jail Targets:

Iconeum

Lalendra

It's possible, but I don't think it is likely. Since we have basically determined that Lalendra is indeed a role cop, it makes no sense for Lalendra to claim a result D2 if they were jailed.

Ircher

I know that my action succeeded, so I could not have been jailed.
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Mathdino

Mathdino claimed to have shot Myloninja, and there has been no counterclaims, so I think we can pretty much be certain that Math was not jailed.
The Janitor

Myloninja

A kill succeeded on them, and there were two kills. Thus, Myloninja could not have been jailed.
Taly
Davesaz
Mutant

Ausuka

Very unlikely that The Worst jailed Ausuka considering that Ausuka was supposed to be vigged, so that would interfere with the town's plan for the night.
Eddie Cane

I think the cop should check in Ausuka/Lalendra/the worst.

my dude, the worst followed my plan and jailed in {Eddie, mutant, Taly}
he repeatedly said that he read my entire night plan and would follow through if i died last night

If Iconeum tried to cop Ausuka, I'd be surprised; cops shouldn't cop vig targets. I also don't think Iconeum would cop The Worst. That leaves Lalendra as the most likely cop target, but that still doesn't seem quite right as Lalendra was to be circumstantially cleared by the lynch (going into the night), right?

[Ircher]

Oh wait, Iconeum would have gotten a result on Lalendra based on the above. So yeah, something doesn't add up because none of Iconeum's suggestions for cop checks would've produced a No Result, and no one claimed roleblocker or commuter.

[Ircher]

Yeah, so I think we basically just get Iconeum to claim their target then string up Janitor and go from there.

[Ircher]

Okay, so then it is definitely the case of either Iconeum lying or a scum roleblocker.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Janitor

L-1

Someone can hammer when mutant claims their draft pick.

[Ircher]

Yeah, let's not rush through things

[Ircher]

An individual Mafia member cannot nightkill and use a power on the same night.

This might be useful to know for future reference.

[Ircher]

Oh yeah, Lalendra supposedly role-copped Iconeum.

[Ircher]

In the off chance that Lalendra isn't scum, who should we have her role-cop?

[Ircher]

Also, @Lalendra --> Did you ever get a response from the mod?

[Ircher]

I’ll hammer in the afternoon unless someone still wants to discuss.

[Ircher]

WHAT is there to NOT understand?

I'm just confused about Lalendra's flip. But not much point dwelling on that.

What I would say about it though is that, since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.

Iconeum is definitely in the Lynch pool.

[Ircher]

This is one of several upcoming posts which is just documentation to myself rather than making any strong statements:

Based on draft number alone the scum are as follows:

Taly > Icon > Janitor >

Saske > Ausuka / Eddie >

Davesaz / mutantdevle > Ircher

.

Please completely ignore this ^^ post. I used the wrong stats.

This is the correct version:

Ircher* > SIMYK > mutant / davesaz >

Icon > Ausuka / Eddie >

The Janitor > Taly

* = very limited data.

This is based on how frequently each number has been picked in each of this setup's past games.

I love how this is the total opposite of your earlier post.

[Ircher]

1. In 2234:

Based on role claims alone the scum are as follows:

Eddie > SIMYK > {All the neighbourizer claims} > Icon > Taly.

Are you sure this is correct? Also, Taly claimed VT/Neighborizer, so.....???

2. In 2237:

Starting to think there's scum in {SIMYK, Taly}.

Not sure about Taly, but I'm starting to have my doubts about SIMYK. I still haven't gotten around to ISOing them though.

3. In 2243:

that it is DAVESAZ, so if there is a roleblocker it is BETWEEN myself and janitor!

It is ALSO possible that ICONEUM is LYING, which will be REVEALED if that is the case after Janitor or I am LYNCHED.

My thoughts over the night was that the simplest explanation actually is that Iconeum is lying, and there is no roleblocker. That said, I really think today's lynch pool is one of {SIMYK, Janitor, Iconeum} (in no particular order) because I highly doubt scum gambited with fakeclaiming with the lower draft numbers.

4. In 2244:

Forgive me if I don't seem too interested in forming reads this day phase because I'm going to attempt to solve this game mechanically rather than through reading into too much of what people post.

Didn't we already try that? It hasn't helped us much so far, that's for sure.

[Ircher]

Davesaz, are you going to contribute something useful now?

[Ircher]

VOTE: Iconeum

[Ircher]

You realize that if I’m RBer, then Taly and Ausuka are my partners, right? My role is self-confirming.

Your partner is definitely The Janitor and probably one of {Mutant, Davesaz, SIMYK}

[Ircher]

But mainly, your posting is lackluster, and I want you to start actually playing the game and giving actual reads.

[Ircher]

that kill is horse shit, i was going to probably try and lynch dino today for all of his bullshit

ah well

thanks scum!

Meh, Math was close to conftown at that point.

So am I actually.

[Ircher]

Fine, we Lynch Janitor but we use our time wisely.

Eddie, do you care to be neighborized tonight?

[Ircher]

Let’s use as much of D3 as we have.

[Ircher]

I've looked at the votecounts. I noticed that The Janitor apparently never voted D1, not even once. Anyone else find it strange?

[Ircher]

Eddie - for the purposes of numbers

Taly - was town anyways, but scum!Taly never lets Dino be a kill so this slot is basically conf town.

Mutant - still pretty solidly town too

Ircher - not scum with Ausuka, and Ausuka townreads on meta, and has that generally awkward townie vibe. Town.

1 more town and the game is over bar a random vig/vengeful faking vt scum, cool coooool.

if we had ausuka in here the game's p much done

what do you think ircher / taly / mutant?

Leaning towards town on Ausuka at the moment.

[Ircher]

Mutantdevle ISO:

1. In 231:

Unlike Math, I would like to be neighbourised

So far, I've been neighborizing my townreads (who I didn't think were going to be killed), but I think I am going to neighborize either you or Eddie next. Any particular reason you want to be neighborized?

2. In 240:

Did these 2 games actually happen? If so, I'd appreciate being linked to them.

Remind me, why was this even a question at the time?

3. In 372:

It's unlikely that these games happened but still plausible so I still asked because if they do exist then I don't want to miss out on the data from them.

Regardless if this is truly your thought process, I still think that your post (and this thought process) has zero relevance to the game at hand, but meh.......

4. In 373:

then top that with night kills,

Okay, I feel like the N2 kill was more or less obvious, so what are your thoughts on the N1 kill on The Worst? Do you think they got lucky in killing a PR, or do you think they found some PR crumb on The Worst?

5. In 387:

This is probably a good thing.

(In response to my 346): Elaborate.

6. In 415:

Add that to how Ircher seems intent on shutting down any form of setup spec and seems to focus too much on other people's reads (in my opinion) and judge them based on that.

I'm just going to ask you something: how can you read a person based on what they say about the setup (aside from glaring inconsistencies and misleading information)? If anything, scum have an advantage (3 to 1) in terms of knowing setup information, and even without that advantage, practically anyone who knows enough about the setup could post information about the setup, regardless of alignment. That is why I read people by their reads, and it is why I focus on people having reads and explaining the thought process behind those reads.

7. In 432:

Cool, so I'm not going to read Ircher's huge post. If there's anything significant someone's just going to quote it anyway.
I'll CTRL+F for associations once we get some flips though.

Anti-town post, but not necessarily scum-motivated.

8. In 468:

I need substance to mutantcase, it's too early for that, + it's midnight for me and I'm going to bed. So maybe later, and later doesn't mean IRL tomorrow. Like it's quite early in the game, this read could drastically change by the end of next week. There's no point in casing something like this when it's heavily subject to change.

I would love if you really explained even one of your reads on the currently alive people (that doesn't boil down to basically being 100% setup speculation, which while that is fine in some cases, it doesn't help me discern your alignment.)

9. In 563:

The longer I live the more setup spec I'm going to do and, with enough information, I could very well 'solve' the game rather than read it provided I can convince others of my point of view.

How do I determine your alignment then? How can I trust your setup spec if I cannot trust your alignment? You have to scumhunt and make your reads known for me to really be able to read you.

10. In 564:

My meta and the ability to judge people on things other than their reads.

Name some of those other ways to judge people besides their reads and their meta.

Be specific.

11. In 794:

If it's worth anything, I have a gut scum on ausuka that I'm heavily ignoring because there is literally nothing to it.

Maybe you already answered this (today, May 23) and I already forgot, but what exactly is your read on Ausuka again?

12. In 980:

I can't both be vote parking AND pushing an old wagon.

Unless I'm mistaken, you are still voting me at this time... I can't remember any other wagon you pushed, so I'm not sure what you are stating here...

13. In 1068:

There's only ever been 1 game where town has had both the 1 shot vig and the N3 vig...

This is such a crappy thing to rely on.

Yeah, this is kinda a concern actually. What are the chances that scum have the N3 vig and fakeclaimed? In that case, we are in Mylo right now. But if no one has the N3 vig/vengeful slot (cuz Vengeful isn't gonna claim due to autolynch), no lynching would be the wrong move... Any thoughts since you seem to be the remaining expert on the setup?

14. In 1211:

Town:
SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis
Town lean:
Iconeum

(Note: portions of this readslist were excluded). Please explain these two reads if they are still relevant.

15. In 2209:

since scum did not get the role cop, I revoke my suspicion of Icon.

I don't see how that makes a difference? It seemed pretty reasonable to assume that Lalendra wasn't lying about their role, and I still think the simplest explanation is Iconeum is scum.

16. In 2238:

We are in perpetual MYLO

Not strictly true, but if we are lynching today, we need to lynch someone that we think have a 90% chance of flipping scum. We are either in MyLo today or 1 mislynch away from LyLo. I would assume the latter except the fact that scum may gambit with fakeclaiming...

17. In 2287:

Btw Ircher, mechanically, you are town. Not sure if that gives you any faith in solving in such a way.

I'm just saying we need to factor in reads as well...

Other Notes:
1. With the exception of 240, the first 17 or so posts of the ISO deal almost exclusively with setup spec. That is a bit excessive in my opinion.

Conclusions: To be quite honest, I really think I am leaning towards town here despite the "methodology-related" stuff that I seriously disagree with. Basically, I don't think I want to lynch this slot today.

Addendum @Mutant: What do you think the chances are that a scum vengeful fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a scum N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT? What do you think the chances are that a town N3 Vig fakeclaimed VT AND would kill if our lynch today flips town? Do you think it is more likely that we are currently in MyLo (with a N3 vig that fakeclaimed or a vengeful that fakeclaimed) or 1 mislynch away from LyLo? Do you think it is better for us to No Lynch on the off-chance that we are in MyLo or to lynch under the hopes that our target is scum, or at least, we aren't in MyLo?

[Ircher]

Almost50/Davesaz ISO:

1. In 74:

But let's

assume (for the sake of argument

) that Beefster is town here. So? Why is a wagon on him bad? Wagons are good for getting reads, right?

(I wonder why the "Assume for the sake of argument" is underlined...)

2. In 139:

FTR, Mathdino should have been tied with The Janitor, but I decided he is likely town because of my role (he is above me in the draft, and I think I know what he would pick/have his team pick if he was scum), and that's all I am willing to say for now.

I am curious as to what this guess of what scum!Math would've picked would've been. (Like, I could see a way that it could really help us atm, but oh well...)

3. In 263:

When was the last time he actually posted anything other than bad reads and confusion?? Here he is actually providing some information and [cares] to argue back with facts.

(Yeah, Mutant provided IoA, so I still don't see how this is indicative of Mutant's alignment.)

4. In 490, Almost50:
1. "Let's ruin this game because I'm playing with a bunch of nutters." -->

??? This seems unprompted.

2. "I went for Neighborizer. I don't think Scum!Dino would go for that over most any other combination (Vengeful is a powerful tool for scum. RB and/or JK, or maybe RB+Tracker/Role Cop.. etc)." -->

Can anyone interpret what Almost50 is saying about Mathdino's alignment based on the draft and his pick? Because I cannot understand their point here.

3. "And I was just trying the bloody infamous A50 gambit, so that is why I'm being iiretated by being overly SR, and especially so by the MATHDINO" -->

Your typical AtE, but it seems believable?

5. In 492:

VOTE: A50

Meh, not sure what to make of this self-vote. Original inclination was town, but I am not sure that applies any longer.

6. In 508:

Now which of the players before me on the draft would take that as town? (because I'm assuming Scum!You wouldn't, so if you are scum then it must've fell in the hands of the town still).

I think this makes a little more sense.

7. In 556:

My bright moment: Iconeum+the worst+Lalendra for the scum team.

VOTE: Iconeum

(Or not... Iconeum perhaps but the rest has flipped town by this point...)

8. In 594:

Good, it wasn't a gambit.

Ummm..... I'm lazy, but context???

9. In 694:

I disliked it, but it was enough to accurately read the alignment I'd be replacing into.

I kinda buy this as Davesaz saying he read Almost50 as town, and he was correct in that. (Or the exact opposite, but I don't think (?) that Davesaz would make this comment if they're expectations didn't meet reality.)

10. In 1281:

@Eddie -- the reads question? That's easy enough to find but I don't mind restating.
Town reads on Ircher and Taly.
Weak town lean on Beefster.
Wanna look closely at people on Ircher wagon.
The Janitor possible scum.
Long name with lots of complicated ascii art and random words in CAPS looks town.

So, in other words, with the exception of SIMYK (i.e.: long name), your reads haven't changed at all since 596? That seems strange...

11. In 1489:

I don't like the stall at all.
Iso'd Lovebird, can't find any evidence of town there.
VOTE: Lovebird
That's L-1

I don't like this post...

12. In 2131:

Hammer intent.
Do we even need mutant's info?

I don't like this post either....

13. In 2275:

Janitor is most likely rb.

You are presuming that there is a roleblocker, which we still don't know for sure....

Other Notes:
1. Compare Civilization Almost50 (Town) and White Flag Almost50 (Scum). Which do you think Almost50 resembles more closely this game? I am leaning towards the former.
2. I know Davesaz was sick earlier in the game, but are they always this brief? Do they always seem to be in a perpetual state of catching up?

Conclusions: Almost50 read primarily as town to me. Davesaz read primarily as scum to me with the notable exception of 694 which felt like it came from town. Overall, I think I am going to go with more likely town than scum here with the caveat that I'm not at all confident in this read.

[Ircher]

Ausuka ISO:

1. In 433:

UNVOTE:

Mutant, you're voting Ircher. Why won't you read his posts?

Honestly, I like this. While it may not be good for her reads accuracy on me (no longer 100%!), I just think that scum!Ausuka would be more likely to at least stay on the wagon and judge later versus get off the wagon and reevaluate.

2. In 568:
1. "I unvoted there because the post was massive and I felt like I needed to evaluate it before pushing further w/ pushing him. Ircher's posts aren't that bad but, like, he just doesn't give out the same obvtown feeling he usually does when he's town, you know?" -->

Fair enough and seems town-motivated... Or at least not scum-motivated.

2. "But I don't think I want to lynch Ircher yet because I think I can sort him with 99% accuracy later, and the way he's working through the thread and making notes is pretty towny." -->

Okay...

3. "although if I'm right, and you're scum here, that makes a lot of sense, because you already know what Ircher's alignment, and you're only worried about perception of you, which is why you CTRL+F'd the post to search for your name, and nothing else." -->

Interesting perspective; I kinda agree with it.

4. "I UNVOTED ircher because I NO LONGER feel that his posts make him CAUGHT SCUM so I would prefer some more TIME to EVALUATE him ^_^" -->

This is still consistent with what Ausuka has previously stated.

5. "yeah, maybe Ircher is just scum here." -->

This seems a bit inconsistent, but given that this post covers several posts, it isn't a glaring inconsistency.

6. "yeah... I still think beefster is scum here. maybe beef/ircher/lalendra? does that work as a team?" -->

Out of curiosity, was this just a conjecture based on individual reads, or are you factoring associatives in as well? (Ofc, at least I know that this team is all town...)

7. "Ircher's 520 makes me think he might actually be town here; I like the readslist. but I just feel like something important is missing here with his play which makes him locktown in most of the towngames we play together." -->

I gotta be honest, I'm not totally sure what makes you towntell me, but I guess that's a good thing for you!

3. In 645:

meh, I don't really see the need to stop wagoning people to get more information. Like, we get info no matter what happens, and I doubt it will lead to a stall.

Something feels off about this post...

4. In 1021:

that said you're probably going to lynch him anyway so do whatever

I am not nearly as good at reading Ausuka as they are at reading me, but unless I am mistaken, I believe I remember you generally being more proactive in terms of defending your townread of me in other games? Is it because you find me much harder to read this game that is keeping you somewhat silent?

5. In 1027:

i'm getting vigged anyway and once I get vigged nobody will care about my reads so i'm not inclined to spend a lot of time and effort detailing them

Quoted this for the lolz more than anything.

6. In 1852:

Extra-Special Townbloc of Happy Friends

Ausuka

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKimesis, Taly
Candidates For Promotion

the worst, Mathdino

,

Ircher

, davesaz, Eddie Cane
Watchlist For Meaniness
The Janitor, Iconeum
Wanted for Bullying and General Sad Crimes
mutantdevle,

Myloninja13, Lalendra

(?)

I don't think these reads are that bad actually. (Note: I color-coded them based on the flips with myself in blue and Ausuka in orange.) (What I really mean is that I think that the unflipped people in the lower 2 tiers have a high likelihood of scum.)

7. In 1916:

I'm pretty willing to lynch Jan but I think it's strictly suboptimal to keep Lal “close to conftown“ endra alive with a potential tracker or watcher in the game.

I really don't understand this... What does Lalendra being a role cop have to do with Tracker/Watcher? (

Also, The Worst flipped as Jailkeeper which is part of the Tracker slot, so ???

Oh wait, this is still D1... Your "I'm alive" post made me think this was D2...

Nevermind, this post was made D2...)

8. In 2036:

I don't think there's a significant difference between ircher's play as a PR and a VT. To be fair I've only seen him as a Universal Backup but I'm pretty sure he'd play that the same way as any other PR.

Just noting that while I do tend to be just as noticable as a PR as a VT, I do play some roles more carefully. Neither neighborizer nor Universal Backup qualify in that respect.

9. In 2158:

there is no off-chance that Lalendra isn't scum and we shouldn't be engaging with the possibility that she is. There has been no mention of any sort of mod error, for starters (because there wasn't one.)

Just going to note that the mod decided that they weren't gonna comment on their earlier comment for the time being (probably a good thing on the moderation side, but still.... It DID impact the game in a MAJOR way...)

Other Notes:
1. Day 1 Voting Pattern:
Ausuka Voted: Beefster (157) -->

Ircher

(419) --> (Null) (433) -->

Lalendra (571) --> Lovebird (589) --> Lalendra (718) --> Lovebird (1016) --> Lalendra (1198) --> Lovebird (1445) --> Lalendra (1692) --> Lovebird (1815)

Like seriously though, it is like you are bipolar; one post you are voting Lovebird, the next Lalendra, and so forth... I don't necessarily think it is scummy, but it is certainly weird...

Conclusions: Uh.... Not really sure what to say... I guess overall, I am reading this ISO as more town than scum, but still feels like it is **really** missing something.

(Note that I already got some responses from Ausuka in our neighborhood PT.)

[Ircher]

Iconeum ISO:

1. In 164:
"1) wanted to deny scum a free first pick" -->

Okay, but you ended up with first pick, so..........

"2) would not be unhappy being VT" -->

Do you seriously think that a bunch of people are going to be picking 1 as their draft number? Like, I can see MAYBE 1 scum doing it and MAYBE 1 OTHER townie (i.e.: someone besides you) choosing it, but I think the chances of such are extremely low... Perhaps Mutant with his setup knowledge can determine the frequency at which the number one is picked in the draft....

"3) if i got the pick, i put scum in a bad situation because I either end up as lynchbait or am completely wrong in my reads so they want to leave me alive to endgame. having the first pick at least makes them considering killing me early just because of the (potentially strong) power." -->

This is pretty much an obvious PR soft, but considering they had first pick anyway, it was a given they are a PR. Now, why isn't the town cop dead yet? Scum knows there is no doctor (by either having or not having the roleblocker) and the jailkeeper is dead... Like, if you are still alive in LyLo regardless if we lynch the roleblocker, you should get autolynched.

2. In 202:

I'm not sure u are scum for it. It's a very good place to start though.

Compare this with Iconeum's writing in 198: "Only scum would have the motivation to play like that". See the discrepancy?

3. In 666:

Funny you mention Ausuka, because I just reread that ISO and it's much worse then i thought it was. The Ircher scumread, then voting and instantly unvoting was weird. Then the read turned so quikly into a semi-townread, followed by flip-flopping votes on Lalendra and Lovebird. Upgrading to a scumlean on Ausuka

Something doesn't feel right about this post...

4. In 1071:

why are you so focused on lalendra's low content posting?

Why not? (Man, I wish Lalendra was scum.... We would be much better off for associative tells if that had been the flip...)

5. In 1418:

High in drafts / lolreason.

As you will see after this game, town will choose high as well (cough).

(I added the underlining.) Wait, is this a scum claim? (I guess he could be referring to himself but I digress...)

6. In 1685:

and now I come back with an effort post/case which is pretty damn good if i say so myself (better scumcontent then EITHER wagon right now) and I'm being scumread for it.

LAMIST!

7. In 2113:

I checked math and got no result

Explain what went into this decision...

8. In 2186:

This one's for the duckling.

VOTE: lalendra

This hammer was really bad.

Also, Janitor was *clearly* the better lynch to make.

Other Notes:
1. Large initial focus on The Janitor and his posts.
2. Midway through Day 1 when it became evident that The Janitor was not going to be lynched, Iconeum switched gears and started heavily pursuing Lovebird.

Conclusion: Not really sure about this slot. I still think the setup points moreso to this slot being scum, but from a reads standpoint, I would say I am about neutral on this slot.

[Ircher]

-----------------------------------------------
The Janitor:

1. In 114:

I asked you a question about something that bothers me. Seems like part of a game to me honestly.

@SIMYK
The game is barely underway so I'm not really having a read on anyone. Sure scum could interact a lot but I'd imagine they're more comfortable in the shadows than here. But that again is also wifom-y which is why I'm slow in forming reads.

This post bothers me, but I cannot figure out why at the moment...

2. 161 -->

The Janitor's continued focus on one or two negligent things really bothers me. I am 100% certain there is more stuff The Janitor could be commenting on...

3. In 200:

I just let my thoughts flow on matters that stand out to me. How does that make me scum immediately? What you could do is weigh in on the matter itself. And I'm pretty busy replying to stuff I can form opinions about right now

This post feels too artificial to me; in some ways, it is consistent with The Janitor's previous posts, but in other ways, it just feels like it is trying to give that town aura too much.

4. In 406:
1. "Hmm 218 seems good to me, although I haven't played with you before Taly, not on this account. Good points made." -->

Anyone could make this kind of statement.

2. "Why me then? Any opinions on what I posted? You didn't mention them, did you find my posts bad like the other people on my wagon?" -->

I think people are more worried about what you are not posting versus what you are posting.

3. "Don't think setup spec is that bad in itself but yes I do think it's mostly a bunch of wifom. But Math does it more I guess... still no big fan." -->

Another thing pretty much anyone can say; aka, useless information.

Like, my problem with this post in general can basically be summed as being an IoA post (Information over Analysis).

5. In 603:
1. "idk but isn't this more a case of "suck it up"? Why would town just plainly want to ignore someone who *can be* town? Sure he's scummy but nothing's confirmed yet I'd think." -->

Another stance that pretty much anyone can take more or less.

2. "On one hand it's very well possible scum!Irch is fighting an uphill battle wanting to look townie but on the other hand it might just as well be town!Ircher trying to prove himself." -->

Are you going to take a stance on anything?

3. "Well then is this really a weak argument when it's actually possible" -->

Balancing Possibilities Versus Probabilities (I hope I got that right...)

6. In 605:

Taly and Aukuka seem town. A50 scumlean. Math somewhat of a scumlean. Duckie seems town too. Yessiree scumlean. SIMYK townlean.

How can you scumread the mod? (I know this has been brought up before, I'm just reiterating this for emphasis.) Like, if it weren't for that, I would be semi-okay with this post; however, that makes it look like you just chose random people to townread and scumread.

7. In 1009:

Why would the unofficial town leader argue for a policy vig? Who knows some of his reads may be right.

I don't think I even understand what you are stating here?

8. In 1179:

It ain't impossible... But certain things don't sit well with me. This calls for an ISO read/skim sometime soon.

Weren't you townreading me earlier...? (Or were you fence-sitting again?)

9. In 1189:

I mean that mislynchable self thing is a wet dream for scum to have in a signature. Obviously Lalendra isn't scum because of it but scum would love to fall back on that.

And what purpose is this post supposed to serve?

10. In 1310:

My reads are duck, Taly, SIMYK, mutant town and lalendra and lovebird I find scummy. Have concerns with Dino that I voiced. Ircher is also wacky but lovebird and LAL are less active atm. Ausuka light suspicion

I haven't seen you say much about Lovebird or Lalendra....

11. In 1614:

Neutral Mathdino (Ausuka), Ico, Ircher**
Scumlean (Ausuka), dave*, Lalendra, Mylo, Bird

Possible Ausuka/Janitor associatives here? Like, how can Ausuka be in two places at once? Either you scumread them or you don't scumread them; I don't see what could have you so split... Especially when you don't say much about them...

12. In 2043:

Interesting. I'm a VT.

What exactly was "interesting" about the roles remaining? This post doesn't feel authentic tbqh.

13. 2189 -->

I feel the post has strong associatives with SIMYK. Let's start with the bottom: he lists everyone EXCEPT SIMYK (and Eddie) who very well could also be a roleblocker in the lynch pool if Iconeum flips town. Note that Janitor __also__ keeps SIMYK out of the possible scum roleblockers a little above as well--this isn't just a glaring oversight on Janitor's part because a little above, Janitor is basically saying he townreads SIMYK. And his townread thing really reads as if SIMYK is his scum partner.

Conclusion: Too much IoA and IIoA. He occassionally gives reads, but they don't seem like reads he feels strongly in. His last post suggests possible ties with SIMYK. Perhaps most importantly, I am leaning more towards scum after reading his ISO than I was beforehand.

[Ircher]

Okay, this last thing is too important for a page bottom.

[Ircher]

So I am going to bump the thread.

[Ircher]

Key:

Mod-confirmed town

Mod-confirmed mafia

Myself

VC 1.4
The Janitor (5) -

Mathdino

, Almost50 (Davesaz), Iconeum,

Beefster (Myloninja)

, mutantdevle
Almost50 (2) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Brassherald (Eddie)
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird, the worst

Beefster

(1) - Ausuka

Lovebird

(1) -

Ircher

Iconeum (1) - Taly

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor

Only two town people have flipped on the Janitor's wagon. Of the remaining three, I find all of them suspect.

VC 1.8
The Janitor (3) - Iconeum,

Beefster (Myloninja)

,

Ircher

Ircher

(3) - SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Mathdino

, mutantdevle

Lalendra

(3) - Ausuka,

the worst

, Taly
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird

, brassherald (Eddie)
Iconeum (1) - Almost50 (Davesaz)

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor

It would be quite interesting if there is one scum on each of the three major wagons here...

VC 1.12

Lalendra

(5) -

the worst

, Taly,

Ircher

, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Ausuka

Ircher

(2) -

Mathdino

, mutantdevle
Ausuka (2) -

Lovebird

, Eddie Cane
The Janitor (1) - Iconeum
Iconeum (1) - davesaz

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor,

Myloninja13

Is it interesting that of 3 not voting, Janitor is the only one left right now? Not sure what to make of this though; it would've been nice to have a scumflip by now....

VC 1.14

Ircher

(3) - , mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

the worst

Lalendra

(2) - Taly,

Ircher

Lovebird

(2) - Iconeum, Ausuka
Iconeum (1) - davesaz
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

The Janitor (1) - Eddie Cane

Not voting -

Lalendra

, The Janitor,

Myloninja13, Mathdino

What the heck is this? Now we have 3 town not voting...

VC 1.15

Ircher

(5) - mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

, Eddie Cane,

the worst

Lalendra

(2) - Taly,

Ircher

Lovebird

(2) - Iconeum, Ausuka
Iconeum (1) - davesaz
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting - The Janitor,

Myloninja13, Mathdino

I'm starting to notice something... But I'm gonna wait before sharing...

VC 1.16

Lalendra

(5) - Taly,

Ircher

,

the worst, Myloninja13

, Ausuka

Ircher

(3) - mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

The Janitor (3) -

Mathdino

, Eddie Cane, davesaz

Lovebird

(1) - Iconeum
Taly (1) -

Lovebird

Not voting - The Janitor

I would like to think that the wagon composition on Lalendra in this VC is all-town. I could at least say (knowing my own alignment) that it seems to be a town-driven wagon.

VC 1.20

Lovebird

(6) [L-2] - Eddie Cane, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Taly,

Lalendra

, mutantdevle, Ausuka

Lalendra

(5) -

Ircher

,

Myloninja13, Lovebird

, Iconeum,

the worst

The Janitor (2) -

Mathdino

, davesaz

Not voting - The Janitor

Anyone notice anything of worth here? (Serious question--I am not sure what to make of it except for one glaring issue that I will get to....)

VC 1.24
Ausuka (5) -

Ircher

,

Lovebird, Mathdino

, Eddie Cane,

Myloninja13

Lovebird

(4) - Taly,

Lalendra

, mutantdevle, davesaz

Lalendra

(2) -

the worst

, Ausuka
davesaz (1) - Iconeum

Not voting - The Janitor, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

I am pretty sure the Ausuka wagon here is all-town. I can't say the same for Lovebird.

VC 1.25
Ausuka (6) [L-2] -

Ircher

,

Lovebird, Mathdino, Myloninja13, Lalendra

, mutantdevle

Lovebird

(6) [L-2] - Taly, davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Ausuka, Eddie Cane,

the worst

davesaz (1) - Iconeum

Not voting - The Janitor

Look at Iconeum all by himself! If there is scum on the Ausuka wagon, it is quite obviously mutant. What are the chances that the majority of scum are on the Lovebird wagon? What are the chances that the majority of scum are off the two main wagons? (This is a question to everyone; I want serious answers.)

VC 1.26 (LYNCH)

Lovebird

(8) [Lynch] - Taly, davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis, Ausuka, Eddie Cane,

the worst

, Iconeum,

Ircher

Ausuka (5) -

Lovebird, Mathdino, Myloninja13, Lalendra

, mutantdevle

Not voting - The Janitor

Good, everyone is voting one of the two main wagons..... Oh wait,

The Janitor isn't voting anyone

. And on closer inspection,

The Janitor never voted, NOT EVEN ONCE, on Day 1

(or if he did, he didn't stay on anyone long enough for the mod to record it!)

. So what does that suggest? Scum without an opinion? Town without an opinion? Which one is more likely?

VC 2.1
The Janitor (4) -

Mathdino

, Ausuka, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

Lalendra

(2) - Eddie Cane, The Janitor

Not voting - Taly, davesaz, Iconeum,

Ircher

, mutantdevle

Nothing really interesting here... The Janitor is finally voting someone.

VC 2.6
The Janitor (5) [L-1] -

Mathdino

, Ausuka, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis,

Lalendra

,

Ircher

Lalendra

(3) - Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly

Not voting - davesaz, Iconeum, mutantdevle

Just sayin', the Janitor wagon appears mainly if not all town. Lalendra? Not so much...

VC 2.7
The Janitor (4) [L-2] -

Mathdino

, Ausuka,

Lalendra

,

Ircher

Lalendra

(3) - Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly

Not voting - davesaz, Iconeum, mutantdevle, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

VC 2.9 (LYNCH)

Lalendra

(6) [Lynch] - Eddie Cane, The Janitor, Taly, Ausuka, mutantdevle, Iconeum
The Janitor (3) -

Mathdino, Lalendra

,

Ircher

Not voting - davesaz, SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

Just saying, The Janitor wagon was the leading wagon all day right up until the hammer where in like no time, Lalendra suddenly became the lynch instead. While my D1 hammer may have been bad, Iconeum's D2 hammer could be considered flat out scum-motivated. There definitely wasn't need for that, esp. since Iconeum didn't bother to make their intentions known. Also, not a single flipped town player is on Lalendra whereas all 3 (if you include me, which you should!) of the players on The Janitor are town.

[Ircher]

Living people that I haven't ISO'd (yet): Myself (obviously), Brassherald/Eddie Cane, Taly, and SIMYK.

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%)

Confirmed Neighborizer

- Role PM; Also, as long as I continue to successfully neighborize people, I can prove that I am not scum.

Dead:

1. Lovebird - Vanilla Townie
2. The Worst - Town Jailkeeper
3. Myloninja13 - Vanilla Townie
4. Lalendra - Town Rolecop
5. Mathdino - Town 1-Shot Vigilante

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Taly

(+60%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416. I don't necessarily agree with some of their reads, but I still feel good about this slot being town.
Pedit: Lol!

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(+55%) - At first, I felt that this slot was scum, and that continued to be my sentiment as of 931. His latter posts are better. For instance, 1192 is fairly good, and it clarifies his earlier voting reasons. 1576 is another good post and reinforces Ausuka's 1572 that the Lovebird towncase was not really good. Another thing that makes me lean town here is the holistic scumhunting idea: I would be a bit surprised if scum goes to the trouble of making 1583 (though I wouldn't rule it out).

Ausuka

(+44%) - In general, her posts have been more town than they have been scum, but I feel like something is really off about this slot tbqh.

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+40%) - There is like a 99% chance that there is at least 1 scum in {SIMYK, Janitor, and Iconeum}. (I'm getting really paranoid about this slot though... Actually, I'm getting extremely paranoid about this slot...)

Mutantdevle

(+36%) - Despite our differences in philosophies, something really says to me that Mutant is more likely town here, so I'll go with that for now.

Almost50

davesaz

(+32%) - Man, sometimes I really hate reading slots that get replaced. Let me summarize my read here: Almost50 read mostly as town whereas Davesaz read mostly as scum with the notable exception of 694. Despite that, I think I value the Almost50 read moreso, and thus I lean towards town here, albeit with a low level of confidence.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Iconeum

(-74%)

Confirmed Cop

- His posting has been lackluster at best. Furthermore, given how the claims are, it is practically guaranteed that at least one of {SIMYK, Iconeum, Janitor} are scum. I mean, Mutant, Davesaz, Ausuka, or Eddie could be lying, but given their draft potentials, it is highly unlikely. Why do I think Iconeum is the most likely? Because Occam's Razor actually suggests that there is no roleblocker; thus, Iconeum is lying about his result. Also, copping Mathdino was a horrible night action.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

The Janitor

(-79%) - His posting has not been very good, and PoE suggests he is scum. Also, I need to put more effort in and not just townread people for longish posts;

none

of Janitor's posts have come close to being good on second inspection. His last post (2189) points to ties with SIMYK. Janitor sticks out like a sore thumb when one looks at the D1 VCs; apparently, he *NEVER* voted anyone D1.

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

Role Claims, Draft Numbers, and Draft Order:
1: Iconeum (1) - Cop (Confirmed)

2: the worst (3) - Jailkeeper (Confirmed)

3: Lalendra (5) - Role Cop (Confirmed)

4: Ircher (11) - Neighborizer (Confirmed)

5: SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis (413) - VT, Universal Backup/Rolecop

6: Mathdino (2) - 1-Shot Vigilante (Confirmed)

7: The Janitor (2) - VT, Neighborizer

8: Beefster/Myloninja (4) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

9: Taly (4) - VT, Neighborizer
10: Almost50/Davesaz (8) - VT, Neighborizer

Claim is consistent with play.

11: mutantdevle (8) - VT, Neighborizer
12: Ausuka (6) - VT, Neighborizer

13: Lovebird (6) - VT, Tracker (Confirmed)

14: brassherald/Eddie Cane (6) - VT, Tracker

Night 1 Actions:
Iconeum copped Mathdino --> Failed, No result
I neighborized Taly --> Successful
Mathdino vigged Myloninja --> Successful
The Worst jailed ??? --> ???
Mafia killed The Worst --> Successful
Lalendra role-copped Iconeum --> Successful, "Cop"

Night 2 Actions:
I neighborized Ausuka --> Successful
Mafia killed Mathdino --> Successful
Iconeum copped SIMYK --> Failed, No result

[Ircher]

Just noting that despite my reads list, if I were a 3-shot vigilante that could shoot all three shots at once, I would shoot Janitor, Iconeum and SIMYK as I feel like that is the most likely scum team at the moment.