Open 748: Jungle Republic - Over!

[Almost50]

Umm.. erm..

@Auro: Why don't you just check the replacements thread. DT has flaked on at least 3 different games already. In other words, he's flaked the site.

In other news, I BLOODY HATE THE HYDRA (and to a lesser degree Bambi) for the mess they made this thread turn into. By the time I was on page 5 I was considering making a new account called Almost100 because of you two. (or rather, you FIVE).

Anyways, I decided to forget about that and start fresh from this point on. I swear if that shitposting goes on though I will park my vote on one of these two slots until either I or they die, and if

they

die before me I will park my vote on the other one two, so BEHAVE!

[Almost50]

People tell me I shouldn't townread bambi. Give me your opinion.

Bambi (aka Elsa Jay) is a far too complex player you should not underestimate. I have no read on them yet, and I probably wouldn't before we've had some flips. Suffice it to say almost anything they say or do is NAI. (and I'm glad it's an open setup or they would have fake claimed something already)

[Almost50]

@Clem: Want to claim?

[Almost50]

@Jay: Who's applejack?

P-edit: I certainly underestimated your ability to F* with my thoughts even in an OPEN setup. Well, at least I won't be defending you should you be the lynch target on D2.

[Almost50]

Hmm.. so why would you vote with your WW read? If you think the hydra rolled WW & Clem isn't on your team then there's a greater chance he might've been the Seer faking VT to evade the NK. Even if not, you would ne like 90% he's flipping Town anyway, so why hammer him?

[Almost50]

You're all being funny, albeit for different reasons.

I guess it's time for Super A50 to intervene with his atomic brain and undoubted wisdom to enlighten you all, Here goes..

WARNING: Not recommended for the faint hearted. Proceed with caution.

So we are @ 5-3-2 now. We either mislynch (4-3-2 => guarantees town can't regain the majority tomorrow either), lynch Mafia (5-2-2 => 28.6% chance of town regaining majority tomorrow), or lynch a Wolf (5-3-1 => 37.5% chance of town regaining majority tomorrow). There's also a 4th option which is to NL, keeping it at 37.5% chance of town regaining majority tomorrow.

So, obviously what's best is if we lynch a WW, followed by NO LYNCH, followed by lynching a Mafioso, and the worst thing is -naturally- to mislynch a townie.

Now, if we lynch randomly, the chance of a mislynch is 50%, and the chance of lynching a Mafia is 30% while it is 20% lynching a wolf.

So, 20% of having a 37.5% chance, or 30% of having a 28.6%, as opposed to NO LYNCH guaranteeing we do have a 37.5% chance.

Now I know most of you failed your high school maths ( ) so I'm gonna shut up and play along with whatever you guys decide, but let it be on record that I stated that a NO LYNCH is our BEST choice (unless the Seer already has a guilty, but I'd rather they don't claim EVEN if they do. Just crumb it in a readlist in case they get shot tonight).

I'll post a full readlist IF, and ONLY IF you huys agree to this. Otherwise, it won't provide enough cover for the Seer anyway. Everyone must post a full readlist (precisely about your WW reads, because that's what the Seer can check and might have a result on). IF they flip overnight their bottom read is the likely guilty. Otherwise their top read is their clear from last night.

P.S. If you don't understand, just ignore me, or have someone else try to explain it to you. THANK YOU

[Almost50]

a50 what happens if we lynch a literal scumclaim

See above. The problem is deciding whether it's a legit claim or a troll. As I mentioned before, I don't believe/disbelieve anything Jay says.

[Almost50]

The read list will NOT contain my "Mafia only" reads, nor will it refer to "Mafia OR WW" as such. It will be WW/Not WW, just as the Seer gets their results.

[Almost50]

@A50: Your math is correct; however, you're also assuming wolves would NK randomly. This won't happen since we already have a Mafia claim (Jay) which is a definite non-NK, which skews the numbers; also I'm the probable NK anyway because I'm virtually unlynchable at this point. Do you still think No Lynch is bad?

Did I say No Lynch was bad???
I said the only think better than No Lynch is a the lynch of a WW

[Almost50]

A50, how can you differentiate between WW and Mafia reads in general? That confuses me so much.

If you can't then you just fake being able to.

It was a way of having the Seer crumb his check target and result without outing. If we ALL went for it, nobody but the Seer themselves knew what was going on. Not even the WWs would, because if someone places a not-WW at the bottom it could still be the Seer having checked the top of the list and cleared then from being WW.

[Almost50]

Why would WW claim Mafia, virtually asking to be lynched? The only potential benefit is to delay a lynch on themselves, but I don't see how that balances the cost of dying anyway.

Take it from me: Do NOT try to decipher Jay's play. I am not saying he's a WW. I am not saying He's not. But

IF HE IS A WW

then claiming Mafia gives him a free-from-check N1 most of the time. That's 1 chance of trying to shoot the Seer before they get any results, and a 50% less chance for the Seer to get a guilty.

[Almost50]

Why would Mafia claim Mafia? Why would town claim mafia? To see why he did so, you just need to look at what has happened about that today. Everyone is just assuming that he was mafia claiming Mafia, which almost gives him a free pass due to the nature of this setup. Wouldn't work anywhere in another setup of course.

I'll answer this -again- because I know Hay a bit too well.

I said why he would do that as a WW above. Now why do it as Mafia? Simple. One less check for the Seer (he even said it himself) and probably even baiting the NK, thus indirectly

protecting

the Seer (who cannot guilty the Mafia anyway, but can get a guilty on their WW rivals).

[Almost50]

VOTE: No Lynch

@Auro: I obviously do. My real strength in this game is on the mechanical and statistical department. I'm a mediocre player when it comes to developing reads based on tone and gut, and when I try to catch "slips and contradictions" I often read too much into things too. I am also better at meta reads with some than most others.

[Almost50]

I could be a town who's pretending to be a Wolf pretending to be Mafia, of that helps anything. Or just Mafia. Or Werewolf being a Mafia.

That's a bit of a stretch. You know well that would be throwing off the town, as people will try to develop associations between your slot and other slots. It also means the WWs are saving you for a late-into-the-game mislynch which is guaranteed not to be opposed by the Mafia either, and I don't think the town would mind because

they simply don't know

.

[Almost50]

@A50, my primary argument against a no-lynch is that the NK is not going to be random, but I'll craft a more detailed rebuttal later.

Your argument fails because it assumes WWs are shooting Bambi, which IS to our benefit anyway.
Now even if you assume they're not shooting Bambi, the chances of us regaining majority are 28.6% still..

guaranteed

! It's still better than a 50% chance of "guaranteed

NO MAJORITY

"

But feel free to vote Bambi if you think it better to lynch Mafia (you are opposed to the idea that he would claim Mafia as either Town or WW, right?)

[Almost50]

WWs are still very much in a bad position IMHO. They know that any 1 on 1 vs Mafia with no Town alive = Mafia win. They know a day start with 1-1-1 is also an instant Mafia win. Perhaps you didn't read the setup well, so you missed that?

[Almost50]

@Auro: Funny that you'd say GL was shot for his reads and then decide you want to lynch mcqueen when GL's last post was:

wolves I say take a shot in {brassherald/foster/bambi} if they're not on your team and you're trying to thin down Mafia

[Almost50]

A;sp. funny that you've claimed Mafia

at least four times now

and nobody commented on it. The last was when you said ynching wolves is a 1/3 chance when (from a town PoV) it should be 2/9 (excluding your own slot). From a Mafia PoV though it is 2/7 indeed (close enough) and if you have identified the Seer

it is indeed

2/6 = 1/3

[Almost50]

Your push on WWs in particular is also a Mafia claim.

[Almost50]

And your logic is flawed because you know the Mafia have an advantage if numbers are equal, so you really don't care if you hit town here.

[Almost50]

@A50: No, I was going by 2/6 on the presumption that Bambi Jay wouldn't allow a lynch on Mafia.

If you wanted to guarantee a "no mislynch" you should've gone for precisely Bambi, which IS the correct lynch, except it anti-town AF. If he's Mafia we are helping the Wolves, and if he's a Wolf we are helping the Mafia.

Like lynching Mafia today gives the Wolves leeway to hunt for the Seer, while No Lynch (or a mislynch) practically forces them to shoot Mafia tonight.

If the lynch is on WW though (which is good for Town) the remaining Wold is

forced

to hunt for the Seer, because if the catch him the WW are eliminated. This in turn helps Mafia greatly and puts them in pole position.

No Lynch is ideal BOTH for Town AND WWs, but it is bad for Mafia here. Depending on the NK we can decide whether we want to lynch Bambi tomorrow.

[Almost50]

And if Bambi "won't allow a lynch on Mafia" today, what makes you think he will allow it with less "not Mafia" players around? His sportsmanship?

Also, iff you're confident he can/will do that then we should be using that to hunt for MAFIA, so the WWs can shoot them for us (and themselves) and we have a chance against the two of them

[Almost50]

I don't want just a "no mislynch", Almost50 - I want a wolf lynch specifically

I want that too, but the risk/gain ratio is too high for me to take. If we KNEW someone to be a WW we would have lynched them. But we don't, so we can't risk it

at this game status

.

It would be alright to take that risk if we had lynched Mafia yesterday. It would have been OK if WWs shot Mafia yesterday. And it would have been acceptable if the game had started with 13 players instead of 12.

[Almost50]

I feel like I need A50 to clarify a bit more

I can't clarify unless you tell me exactly what you need me to clarify

[Almost50]

I feel like I need A50 to clarify a bit more

I can't clarify unless you tell me exactly what you need me to clarify

Where did Auro make claims of being Mafia?

That I did clarify, I gave 3 reasons why he's Mafia. But because you are a good friend I'll reiterate:

1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.

2- His manipulation of the game status and pushing for a lynch at all costs. A mislynch is beneficial to both scum, but he is excluding a lynch on Mafia too, so a mislynch or a WW lynch. >>> MAFIA

3- I forgot what the third was, but go back to the very post where I said that and read it and my subsequent post. Either that or ISO Auro since the start of D2 and see for yourself.

There's ONLY ONE other possibility, which is Bambi+Auro IS the WW team, but I don't see that as probable, because Bambi is a much better player than to do this and expose the whole team. I thus believe him to be Mafia indeed, and Auro is certainly on his team.

[Almost50]

so I'm gonna shut up and play along with whatever you guys decide

Also not able to reconcile this with the attitude you portray in your recent posts, with McQueen at L-1.

The "you" was directed @TOWN, not claimed scum.

[Almost50]

A 1/3 chance of hitting a Wolf, versus a ~2/3 chance of a guaranteed no-wolf-hit and Villa kill.

See? THIS is a misleading statement. WHO says it will be a VILLA kill all the time? It's a 5:3 at random, and assuming WWs don't want to hit Mafia at this point is stupid.

Let's do the math..

If we mislynch we are 4-3-2, and WWs don't want the kill is on Villa = 3-3-2. By this point the town has lost already, and I suspect the Mafia become too powerful to overcome by TOWN & WWs COMBINED (unless WWs open wolf and the whole Town is willing to give them the win)

If we No Lynch, and the kill hits "Villa" it is 4-3-2 tomorrow, and by sheer numbers we are likely to lynch "not-town". Not to mention it becomes "odd numbers by day" a game, which is ALSO

statistically proven

pro-town in games with single NKs.

[Almost50]

Odd numbers require "relatively" less votes to lynch. As -say- aa needs 6 to lynch, yet 10 ALSO needs 6 to lynch.

In THIS GAME, we are talking about that extra vote being TOWN, so I don't want to risk a MISLYNCH. Ot also had to do with the TOWN controlling the MAJORITY of votes. RIGHT NOW, if we ALL TRUTHFULLY CLAIMED, the TOWN cannot lynch without the help of either scum side. We just CAN'T because we do not control the MAJORITY.

[Almost50]

Also @A50:
If we follow your plan and NL, and the NK is a VT, you want to lynch Bambi tomorrow? Meaning they get another NK?

Can you see how your plan probably makes it muuuuuch more beneficial for Wolves?

No. If the kill hits a townie I won't be lynching Bambi tomorrow. It is the WEREWOLVES JOB to shoot the Mafia in this case. I'm not siding by either of them.

[Almost50]

If they shoot YOU though, and you flip MAFIA, I might think about helping them lynch Bambi next, because it does benefit the TOWN numbers-wise. (We start the day with a 5-2-2 assuming they shoot Mafia, and then a lynch on Mafia takes us down to 5-1-2, so we are guaranteed to still be a majority next day)

[Almost50]

Let's just do a lynch!
If a VT is lynched WW are forced to shoot Bambi anyway.

This is WRONG, but I'll do it if the TOWN say so.

VOTE: mcqueen

[Almost50]

Note that there are TWO Mafia on the wagon (Bambi + Auro) so mcqueen is either Town or WW

[Almost50]

1- Avoiding Bambi (a claimed Mafia if we choose to believe that). The fact that he is excluding Bambi from being a WW and accepting his claim as Mafia is reason enough to think they're both Mafia.

There's ONLY ONE other possibility, which is Bambi+Auro IS the WW team, but I don't see that as probable, because Bambi is a much better player than to do this and expose the whole team. I thus believe him to be Mafia indeed, and Auro is certainly on his team.

Isn't this you doing the same thing you are saying he's doing?

A50, can I get your response to this, please.

No. I am explicitly advocating a NO LYNCH, GDI. He is PUSHING FOR A LYNCH, yet not wanting to consider Bambi as a WW, thus KNOWS Bambi to be MAFIA

[Almost50]

Don't hammer - we need McQueen to claim first btw.

Yes, we absolutely need mcqueen to claim VT (regardless of his true alignment) so we lynch him, or claim Seer and have the WWs shoot him tonight instead while we lynch another player. Sure. That's NOT a mafia-motivated line of thought at all.

[Almost50]

Don't hammer - we need McQueen to claim first btw.

Claiming is stupid in this setup.
We lynch the target we choose.

^^ THIS is why Vedith is TOWN

[Almost50]

Yeah, claiming Seer is the optimal Scum strat. But I didn't wanna be boring so I wasnt claiming that.

Why would you try to out the Seer when you're MAFIA???

[Almost50]

Pedits: Way too many posts to comment on, but I still believe in no-lynch here.

Town is devided.

UNVOTE:

[Almost50]

Apparently the WWs pool is thinning down for the Seer if they're following closely (and I hope they are). Please do NOT respond to this post.

[Almost50]

A50's plan *greatly* benefits wolves no matter how it goes;
Maf NK - Lynch the other maf, leaves 5-1-2 and another NK leads to 4-1-2 or 5-0-2 which wolves will prolly win.
Villa NK - 4-3-2 which is less EV for Villa than today

Please someone tell me this isn't yet another

explicit Mafia claim

.

If things go the way Auro's describing we'd have 2 Seer results by tomorrow. 2 innos ot 1 inno & 1 guilty. If we're lucky and the Seer isn't dead on N3, we'd have THREE results. Wirst case scenario is 3 innos + the Seer himself. Now how is this even winnable for the WWs regardless of whether it's 5-0-2 or 4-1-2?

[Almost50]

Another way to think of it is we want to get to 4-2-1.

A50 is supposed to be good at this sort of thing. If you can convince me no lynch gives us the best chance at 4-2-1 I'll agree to it.

But from the brief numbers I ran in my head, and assuming nobody throws, lynching mafia is the best bet.

I suppose the easiest way to prove it is .. Assuming No Lynch, the only way to get to 4-2-1 is by lynching a WW tomorrow (WW can't be killed at night), so this is the first probability we calculate.

I will now have to make another assumption that I have accurate reads on 4 slots (Vedith/roster are Town, and Bambi/Auro are mafia). This leaves a pool of 5 (Egix/BuJ/mcqueen/brass/hydra) for the Seer to check in with a 40% chance of landing a guilty. WAIT! That is ALSO ASSUMING the SEER is in me/Vedith/brass, because if the Seer is in that pool then they have a 50% chance of hitting a WW assuming I have perfect reads on the other 4 slots.

I'll go with the 40% (the lesser of the two). So 60% of getting a clear? That leaves a pool of 4 for us to lynch from tomorrow with a 50% chance of lynching a WW. So, the total chance of lynching a WW tomorrow is 40%+30% = 70%

The chance of WWs shooting Mafia tonight is 3/8 (I will stop at that because if true I don't really need to limit their hit on the following night to Town. I don't mind if we get to a 5-1-1 instead of a 4-2-1. Do you?)

So, 26.25% if we assume they hit a Mafioso on N2, plus (5/8)*(7/10)*(3/7) = 18.75% if we assume they hit Town on N2, provided they hit Mafia on N3.

Total = 45% probability

If the Seer is within Egix/BuJ/mcqueen/brass/hydra this probability goes considerably higher (50% chance of a guilty, and 66.66% of lynching a WW in the case of a clear).

My only problem with all this is that the Seer will have to out on D3 regardless, and I would rather them only out if they have a guilty (or if they have THREE living innos on D4). I haven't actually calculated the probabilities for them to be alive by then though, as I wanted to do that hypo claiming thing and I suppose only Auro went for it.

I'll start: If I was the Seer I have an innocent on Auro.

[Almost50]

what's no lynch at

3 I think. Myself, roster and Vedith?

[Almost50]

VOTE: No Lynch

I actually don't remember if I revoted NL after having switched to mcqueen

[Almost50]

If Monkey Man Almost is alive tommorow, be warned that hanging him will probably be the best option. Call it a gut feeling.

Mate, one of the reasons why I am positive you're not a WW is the fact I am still alive today.

[Almost50]

I guess the wolf team legitimately doesn't know you.

Ir maybe they know me too well, and they wanted to make use of my reads? Let's not forget the WWs do want to identify town from Mafia still, and 3 minds are better that 2, especially if they know how good I am at reading some of the players on this list

[Almost50]

Every single one of them except roster and -maybe- Auro.

[Almost50]

Every single one of them except roster and -maybe- Auro.

I thought what we had was more than just games.

Bambi didn't specify "games" though. He asked whom I've "played" with.

[Almost50]

I played with you in Mini 2040, I got NK'd N1 and you were really puzzled

Yeahm that's why I said "maybe" because I remember the name but can't seem to remember the conditions. Makes sense that you didn't last long in that game for me not to remember the details.

[Almost50]

I'm not sure what to say. Either I'm dumb or the WWs are. I mean, I understand hunting the Seer is a priority for them, but come on. If we lynch a Townie today it's game over for them. I was counting on their cooperation and I even promised to help them lynch Mafia today if they shot Mafia last night.

OK, so 4-3-2 now, right? Lynch a WW and it's 4-3-1 and them WWs need to shoot Mafia or forfeit the game. 3-3-1 isn't gonna work for them. Full stop.

Lynch a Mafia means it's 4-2-2 going into the night, and if the WWs are persistent on being stupid then 3-2-2 tomorrow and it should still be very much game over for them.

Lynch a Townie and it's a Mafia win. 3-3-2 going into the night means you lost, but we also lose.

So, I am no longer going to trust the WWs and I'm going to try and lynch one today. The rest is up to them. They either try to come back in the game or give it to Mafia.

This was my readlist going into the night, btw.

Auro (probably Mafia, by virtue of claiming he's vitually unlynchable)
Egix96 (might be WW)
BuJaber (might be WW)
Bambi Jay (confessed Mafia)
mcqueen (might be Mafia)
Vedith (Town)
Almost50 (That's me, folks)
rosterfoster (Could be anything, but probably Town)
brassherald (Town)
ajfefijsleifjsa (Could be anything, but probably Town)

VOTE: Egix

[Almost50]

Should the seer out themselves and claim results?

If they have a guilty OR if both their innos are still alive then they probably should.

mcqueen (might be Mafia)

I'll not really fight an Egix lynch since he has > rand scum equity and all his votes seem to be on town (assuming brass is also town)

But I want a McQueen lynch today, the case on him seems stronger.

I said I was trying to lynch a WW, and my bread on mqueen is "might be mafia". Convince me that he could be a WW and I might vote there.

[Almost50]

Question I meant to ask: Why Mafia?
Mafia and town both have incentive to scumhunt, lack of scumhunting should be the biggest wolf indicator - what McQueen was doing.

Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

Everyone does. WWs also want to identify Mafia.

mqueen is more likely Mafia than a WW because of his overall voting/posting behavior. He only voted ONCE and kept his vote on Clemency on D1, and never voted on D2 or even tried to engage. Since we had a good chunk of D2 discussing Bambi (and you) as Mafia I took that to be a sign of not wanting to touch the subject so as not to get dragged into it. His overall play strikes me as "anti-town" but I think it's mire likely to come from Mafia. It also serves to draw the Seer's attention to go that silent, which a WW doesn't want to do but a Mafioso would be happy to be "cleared" under the circumstances.

[Almost50]

Also now your reason for me being Mafia is saying "virtually unlynchable"?

3- I forgot what the third was

[Almost50]

Also walk me through your BuJaber WW read; and also why you're not considering WW!Jay anymore.

Mate, as for Jay.. if I was a Seer and saw him (or anyone else) do this I would have checked him N1. Jay does not do THIS as WW. Period.

As for BuJ, well out of this list he, brass and Jay most familiar with my play. Not shooting me for 2 successive nights = the WWs know I'm not the Seer. Otherwise, I should have been shot on N1.

Now I am calling Jay a Mafioso and TRing brass. Where does this leave us? Unless Vedith was shot because the WWs thought I was Mafia and assumed he would be my partner I don't see why I survived the NK twice.

[Almost50]

As for BuJ, well out of this list he, brass and Jay most familiar with my play. Not shooting me for 2 successive nights =

the WWs know I'm not the Seer.

Otherwise, I should have been shot on N1.

I'm a little confused - if he's very familiar with your play, he's likely to NK you as Wolf - so not doing that implies he's not Wolf, right?

You're applying that logic to clear Jay from being Wolf; while when it comes to BuJ you say Wolves know you're not seer.



Interchange Jay with BuJ in your reasoning and why doesn't that hold?

Notice anything?

[Almost50]

Also I don't get why people think BH is town now

AFAIR all he's done this game is complain about the game not being fun, and tunnel me

Si, who do you think

is

town?

[Almost50]

@A50: Why do/did you think that BuJ might be a werewolf?

I think I have an idea but I want to be sure I understand.

I explained that. Suffice it to say I'm still alive points to it.

[Almost50]

I didn't think about that. Yeah Bambi is probably Mafia then. A50, do you feel it's right for Seer to out in this situation? I feel their survival is pretty likely, so shouldn't be a deterrent.

Auro asked and I said yes if hey have 2 living innos. Someone (brass??) pointed out that it probably is a good idea too. Come to think of it, even if they have one living inno it still removes 2 people out of the WWs pool if we're aiming to lynch a WW (which is what I'm aiming for), so the tl;dr is yes.

[Almost50]

@Hydra: Bambi didn't double down on the Mafia claim
@Bambi: The hydra ended the day voting brass, not no lynch

[Almost50]

In a normal game I would have lynched him and moved on. Unfortunately we can't afford to do that here.

[Almost50]

Hey Monkey Man, a few things things.

1: Why are you voting Egi?

2: Why aren't ya on Applejack (this one I think I know)

3: Alternatively, what are the chances you would move to Jaber instead if you wouldn't lynch Applejack?

4: Do you think I'm town here?

1: I think he's a WW
2: I don't think they're WW
3: If a wagon springs there, yes
4: No

[Almost50]

The strongest reason for him not being Mafia is the Speedwagon on him last game day - which, as I recall, had Brass, Vedith and Me hopping on it. Why would Maf!Jay bus his partner in that situation? And from your perspective, A50, why would BOTH other mafia bus him, especially with one Mafia outed?

@A50

Mate, if a scum team member is lurking this much they become dead weight and will draw much attention to their partners if they do not hard bus them already. It's as simple as that. The next time you play scum try to be a lurksack and see how your team treats you.

[Almost50]

Funny how the overwhelming support for no lynch is now sitting quietly not knowing what to do.

That is because the whole damn point was relying on WWs being smart and going for the obvious correct play which was to shoot MAFIA. They decided to take a chance and try to shoot the Seer, and it backfired on them AND on us.

[Almost50]

wouldn't you assume he'd more likely be pounced on if he was town, Wolves going for the easy mislynch etc?

Let me try to answer this (I know it wasn't directed at me, but it's relevant to what you were asking me).

But first, let me give you a piece of advice: When you're town (and if you are here) try to think what scum you would do before you speak. Trust me. It helps a lot.

Now, as for WWs going fo a Town lynch.. they're clearly hunting for the Seer, so it could be that they were pushing Mqueen to get a claim, but not for the lynch. If I was a WW I'd very much want to lynch MAFIA today, because I would still be hunting the Seer at night. If we lynch Town today the WWs cannot afford to not shoot Mafia tonight.

So, lynching town is even worse for the WWs than sacrificing one of their own today. They

must

lynch Mafia today.

Mafia -right now- do NOT want the Seer dead, or even outed. The Seer is no threat to them, and helps them catch WWs, so MAFIA will try to lynch WWs as a first priority, but can afford to lynch a townie provided they're not the Seer.

We need to lynch a WW ourselves. This may coincide withe the Mafia objective for the day, but it forces the WWs to hunt for other Mafia too, so we woudl be siding by Mafia by day and rooting for the WWs at night.

[Almost50]

also everyone else must comment on my claim
do not just silently change your vote

What is there to comment on? You did exactly what I said the Seer would have done regarding Bambi. I don't care why you checked brass because that was never discussed and you have your own reads. I agree Bambi is Mafia and brass is likely Town.

[Almost50]

If I were scum, I would just have my werewolf partner tell me who to push and I’d be off the radar.

Trying to decide whether this is a genuine town slip or if it is an attempt to fake one.

[Almost50]

Checking back on this, seer was not on no-lynch either, which would make my theory on roster valid. I believe he’s maf.

If this is true then my reads this game have been shittier than they have ever been before. The only good read I had so far was that on Vedith.

[Almost50]

If I had a ww partner

Why are you persistent on denying "WW" and not "Scum" in general? THis is the second time you refer to your "WW partner".

[Almost50]

Check what? I obviously KNOW NOW that the Seer didn't vote NL, so that wasn't what I was talking about. It was the theory that roster is mafia. If ROSTER IS MAFIA then ,y reads have been shittier than they have ever been before.

And you mentioned your WW partner twice. I didn't say you ALWAYS said WW, but your referencing your WW partner twice in 2 successive posts drew my attention, I couldn't help it.

Also, this setup has both scum factions PTs open at NIGHT ONLY (check the setup page) and THAT is what i was referring to as a possible town slip, but you overlooking it (not even exclaiming what is) makes it look more like an attempt to FAKE a town slip (you didn;t ask because you already knew what I was talking about).

Finally, you withholding on some theory and asking us not to hammer because you want to spell it out first is scummy af. It feels like you're grasping at straws to delay the lynch in hopes something happens that changes the current.

Here, let me help you:

VOTE: scum reading

Now you're

@L-1

. Want to share that theory yet?

[Almost50]

?? Why is the thread still open??
Also this dialogue between scum reading and Auro looks forced. I wouldn't e surprised if it turns out they were both of the same faction.

[Almost50]

I'm not gonna take part in this shitfest of mindgames. I want to see the flip and know whether we lynched WW, Mafia or mislynched town. THEN I can go back and read all this rubbish

in light of the flip

[Almost50]

3-2-2 now, and if we lynch a WW they'll have to choose between shooting the Seer (2-2-1 tomorrow, and

must

lynch Mafia and shoot Mafia next to get to 2-0-1) or shoot Mafia (3-1-1 tomorrow and giving them the option to lynch Mafia and shoot Seer next or lynch Town and then have to shoot Mafia).

If we lynch Mafia we go into the night as 3-1-2 which may tempt the WWs to shoot the Seer first, so not very ideal for the Town, and -of course- mislynching today = town loses everytime (2-2-2 so shoot Seer and make town kingmaker, unless they shoot Mafia again and then try to lynch the last mafioso tomorrow for the win).

All in all we should be lynching a WW today, so don't fuck up.

I think Auro trying to paint me as WW is stupid (the act, not the person) and indicative of Auro being Mafia/WW himself, but his interactions with SR in twilight are now confusing since Sr flipped green. BuJaber also pushing the opposing narrative that I'm Mafia is ridiculous too, because it means I have been signaling to the WWs to shoot my partner. (Really??)

I think I'm going to wait for the Seer to come post

@mod: Could you please give the hydra a nudge? They may not be aware the game thread is reopened, or they may have expected to have been NK'd,

[Almost50]

I'm town though, so...

You keep saying this as if it makes any difference to our reads. If it did, then why is my stating "I'm town" not making any difference to you?

[Almost50]

He's probably the 3rd townie in the triangle (myself + hydra + brass)

[Almost50]

Hmm.. so basically it's Egix+BuJ (feel free to include me as a potential WW from your own PoV).

Now let's see. Lynch a WW = 3-2-1. They shoot Seer = 2-2-1. Must lynch Mafia = 2-1-1 and then WWs must shoot Mafia = 2-0-1 and we lynch the second WW.

OR.. Lynch Mafia = 3-1-2. WWs shoot Seer = 2-1-2. Lynch a WW = 2-1-1 and then WWs must shoot Mafia = 2-0-1 and we lynch the second WW

OR.. Lynch Town = 2-2-2. WWs shoot Seer = 1-2-2 = Town loss and the last townie is a king maker.

OR.. Lynch Town = 2-2-2 WWs shoot Mafia = 2-1-2 and -again- Town lose and decide which side wins.

So, basically let's not lynch TOWN here, and we win.

[Almost50]

VOTE: BuJ

[Almost50]

So? He's "not town". All we need us to avoid lynching TOWN and let the WWs play for their own win con.

[Almost50]

Then YOU are not town. (Please tell me that isn't the case)

[Almost50]

Right now, I'd lynch anyone not brass/hydra

[Almost50]

What's qh?

[Almost50]

That's young people speak for a quick hammer, Monkey Man.

OK. thank you.

[Almost50]

So, this might also be a bus?

You are worrying me more and more with every post you make. You are never that inattentive.
From an outsider's PoV, the WWs are in A50/Egix/BuJ. Everyone else has been cleared by the Seer.
Now I know I'm Town, but let's assume you are town here. It thus follows there's NO DOUBT IN YOUR MIND that either I or Egix bussed BuJ, OR we are BOTH WOLVES who have just lynched Town/Mafia.

They way you put it (might???) shows uncertainty, and it's making me feel like you're MAFIA who is trying to guess while appearing clueless, but the play went down south.

[Almost50]

It could also just be all scum voted for the last town member outside of me and the hydra, and now me and the hydra get to be king makers.

Again.. you KNOW my play. If I was any type of anti-town, would I have risked having my faith in your hands? In Jay's hands? In Auro's (who has been tunneling me)?? If BuJ is anything but a Wolf I will concede because it literally means the WWs are me and Egix, and you don't need no Seer to tell you that anymore. Duh!