Mini Normal 2071 (Game Over!)

[u r a person 2]

thanks for the analysis bob. so who do you think is scum?

[u r a person 2]

So, if I'm reading you correctly, the result of your analysis is that you think Ausuka is scum?

I'm not trying to be dismissive, it's just a little tough for me to locate your conclusions

[u r a person 2]

Can I get updated thoughts from Egix on Bob and HRG

and updated thoughts from HRG on Bob and Egix?

[u r a person 2]

Can I get updated thoughts from Egix on Bob and HRG

and updated thoughts from HRG on Bob and Egix?

Also thoughts from Ausuka on HRG, Bob, and Egix, please

[u r a person 2]

Can I get updated thoughts from Egix on Bob and HRG

Aorn if I had to vote either Bob or Gamble, I would vote Gamble.

Will that do for now?

not really but that in itself is an answer

[u r a person 2]

and updated thoughts from HRG on Bob and Egix?

Hi HRG you did not respond to this and that made me sad. Please rectify

[u r a person 2]

Why doesn't egix look like scum here? @HRG

[u r a person 2]

hey skitter,

Do you remember how I played D2 as scum last game when I was flailing trying to find direction?

See anything similar here?

Does it matter that scum wouldn't be solo at this point in the game like I was?

[u r a person 2]

hey skitter,

Do you remember how I played D2 as scum last game when I was flailing trying to find direction?

See anything similar here?

Does it matter that scum wouldn't be solo at this point in the game like I was?

? not sure what you're referring to here
(i mean, i do remember u day2 last game i think but i'm not sure who you're talking about really)

I did a lot of... exploratory analysis, and I'm referring to Bob.

[u r a person 2]

hey, you quoted a great example of what I'm talking about

[u r a person 2]

yeah, i mean i was flailing for sure

but I'm not sure it HAS to come from flailing scum

it's more like, "okay, i need to show that I'm scum hunting but i want to keep my options open, so I'm just going to flood the thread with analysis over the course of days while saying im not done and putting off giving conclusions"

[u r a person 2]

My new scum pool is {Bob, HRG, Egix, Excilon} and i think of those I wanna lynch bob or hrg

thoughts, skitter?

[u r a person 2]

i think ausuka is town

I def don't want to lynch outside those 4 players today

and your excilon case got me to rethink. you're right about iioa, and there were also a couple turns of phrase somewhere in the walls of text that pinged me

skim through hrg again for me? and don't forget the predecessor. I think that's our best shot today tbh

VOTE: hrg

[u r a person 2]

help me see it?

[u r a person 2]

like, im flailing a lil bit here

no one looks overtly scummy, but reading the iso again i can see what you mean about his push on you being genuine

how solid are you feeling in your reads right now skitter?

[u r a person 2]

uh not that great really
i don't really have scumreads rn

that's why i'm pushing on my nullreads

although my read on exilon has worsened during this last exchange with him .... i'm kinda weirded out that he called my post gaslighting?

yeah that was weird but i don't know from which alignment weird

if you had said you loved your reads i'd have just sheeped you

like, im not super confident in anything i've been pushing regardless of the confidence I may have expressed

[u r a person 2]

Why doesn't egix look like scum here? @HRG

Because Egix isn't posting like scum him.
I'm sure that scum Egix votes Sash here as scum even if buddies together.

let's say i sheep skitter on you
and i sheep you on egix

give me some options for today's lynch

[u r a person 2]

i do. I was saying, let's say that I sheep skitter's town read on you

[u r a person 2]

To reiterate, I post a summary + analysis;
You say it's information instead of analysis, which is a content-argument;
I apply that logic to show it's not, disproving your claim, which should force you to reconsider it instead of dismissing it;
You change into an emotion-argument to keep dismissing it.

that post was pretty iioa, tho

[u r a person 2]

ooooh it is ausuka scum, huh

VOTE: ausuka

I dunno how i missed the over-explaining

but this would also make a shit ton of sense for how I'm interpreting this gamestate rn

[u r a person 2]

I’m really behind and there’s way too much for me to sort rn
So someone talk to me

you posted like 80 posts ago. cant be that far behind

[u r a person 2]

Yeah that's what I meant.

I'm not going to do a meta dive to see if it's really the same, I'm just not.

But if you're not scum, help me out here because this game state feels like we're no where close to landing on a scum lynch

and i think that gives you scum equity all on its own

[u r a person 2]

i did read that, you're right that does look similar

[u r a person 2]

I meant that I'm not going to do a metadive to confirm. like 2 posts does not a meta read make

[u r a person 2]

What I find interesting is the wagons are spread out which could mean a number of things. It's quite a contrast to yesterday where their was like 2-3 wagons where everyone was.

I think this gamestate is illustrative of two things

1) Some town slot(s) are holding strong, vocal town reads on scum
2) scum is sitting back because town can't get on the same page

I've been trying to nudge us out of this, but there is a lot of inertia in this game

Does that feel right to anyone?

[u r a person 2]

@Teacher I haven't updated my wiki in a while, so I'm not sure if you're aware of this game. I think you'll go back to finding obvious town reads on me after glancing through it.

I actually don't expect you to need it this game, but my personality read on you is that you'll appreciate having it

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=79139

I'm basically all of the draco lucky posts

[u r a person 2]

yikes wrong game

[u r a person 2]

VOTE: bob

this is where my heart truly is.

maybe a new perspective from the IC-slot will kick this game into gear

[u r a person 2]

I'm pretty sure scum is on the leading wagon. OR scum is on the other wagons. OR scum is not voting. Or scum isn't voting. Or there is no scum! Wait, no, that last one doesn't work at all

Anything interesting I should know? I somehow didn't even know I was IC before taking the slot lol

This is basically an ideal situation to come into as a replacement IC.

There's no real consensus as scum and the game is not progressing

If you were to come in here with a strong opinion of scum I think there's a strong chance you could basically decide the lynch.

And we could use the help.

[u r a person 2]

This is true. I am hoping to be able to properly focus on the game on Monday, in the mean time I'm mostly hoping to see who people will suggest we lynch to someone with a completely fresh perspective that has not (and will not, until Monday) read the game

bob

[u r a person 2]

Why? Is bob your uncle?

I felt his recent set of analysis felt like he was doing it for the sake of being seen as doing it rather than him actually trying to scum hunt.

[u r a person 2]

were you though?

[u r a person 2]

How am i not scum hunting ?

I've explained this a few times.

If you're town and you were scumhunting, then who do you think is scum?

[u r a person 2]

Like, it seems to me that you started your 'analysis' with a scum read on ausuka, and then you gave a bunch of iioa, and then were content to sit on your ausuka vote.

I don't see any indication that you've used any of your work to inform your scum reads

[u r a person 2]

in a nutshell, town!you would have come across as more humbled and less prickly

[u r a person 2]

that was uh, not meant for this game

[u r a person 2]

Bob -> Egix -> Sash -> Gamr

[u r a person 2]

I agree. He was clearly talking about a spontaneous wagon on me, or at least, that's how I understood it at the time

[u r a person 2]

could you quote stuff that's pinging you as you read?

don't even need commentary. just might be useful to take a look at what a fresh pair of eyes didn't like, you know, give me a prod to see specific posts in a different light

[u r a person 2]

okay well i didn't expect you to immediately come back with a bunch of my own posts, but yeah, just like that =)

[u r a person 2]

Skitter, are you honestly arguing to Lynch sash because they will be a distraction? Even though you think they will flip town?

Are you part of Giants management? Because if so I have a bone to pick with you about Odell Beckham jr

[u r a person 2]

Yeah and mine on you?? What an awful reason to lunch someone?

[u r a person 2]

Skitter is an excellent player, and I know from recent experience that she is capable of breaking the conventional wisdom regarding her scum range.

That said, if she is scum. this game, she is putting in a tremendous amount of effort. Most of what you noted as pinging you is either a personality tell from skitter, or, in the past, town tells for skitter.

Inferno's recent post about gamr's recent post was pretty spot on. I think I said earlier, if he's scum he's playing very well. I could compromise there today, but I would prefer Bob or Egix for sure

[u r a person 2]

I feel like early game scumreads on this slot were above average to come from town

What does this line mean?

[u r a person 2]

I don't think 1157 not striking me as a townie case on exilon is a personality trait

I agreed with her that his analysis was heavy on the iioa, so i don't think that's wrong. What makes it not a townie case? I think that entire post and case is well within both of skitters ranges (town and scum)

[u r a person 2]

Can you point to an example where skitter scumreads someone for an excess of iioa as town?

No, I can't. I was saying that I agreed with her assessment of Exilon's analysis. The personality trait (with all due respect, skitter) is primarily the hint of stubborn-ness that she is exhibiting.

The town tells are the penchant for real time interactions, the conviction with which she holds her reads, and the, I don't know how to describe it, the willingness to continue the debate over those reads.

Like I said tho, she is more capable of breaking that mold than I was told to expect a couple months ago. There is zero chance that I'm voting here day 1, though. That would be kinda nuts.

[u r a person 2]

that I'm voting here day 1

who wants to play "is this a townslip?"

does scum forget that we're on day 2? lol

No, I make that error as any alignment. There are plenty of excellent reasons to town read me this game, but that is not one.

[u r a person 2]

Of note is the "real time" analysis he did where he kept posting before finishing his whole thought process which I thought couldn't possibly come from scum (especially new scum), but I'm very open to different interpretations of this.

Like I was discussing with skitter earlier, the open ended analysis done over time (and with little-to-no strongly held conclusions at the end) was precisely how I played my second scum game.

Obviously, my meta isn't his meta, but I don't think it's town-indicative

[u r a person 2]

me:
"oh, so humble and honest-
nvm"

#humblebrag

no, you hit it with the honest part (but yeah, I don't think I've ever been mistook for humble~)

[u r a person 2]

While being 100% completely right. I'm just that good.

For your sig, after the game


While being 100% completely right. I'm just that good. -Garmr (Wasn't Right)

[u r a person 2]

So to put this back into its context, saying it is NAI is precisely what he's doing here. He's not discrediting you. The post you quoted is a reply to me where I said that it was town-indicative, and he said "no, scum also do that".

You're right about what I said - that scum does it, too - but let me be clear.

I think the motivations for this kind of play

-analysis without conclusion
-drawn out over time
-without wanting to discuss it before it's "finished"


all comes from scum more often than town. I AM saying I believe it to be scum-indicative.

[u r a person 2]

urap remind me of your ausuka read?

i wavered at one point, but I'm pretty sure aus is town

[u r a person 2]

@skitter prob egix, bob both good choices.

gamr or exilon not bad choices

im not getting on ausuka because I don't understand why he gets bussed over just pushing you

and I'm not town reading egix or bob, so I really don't want to vote there

[u r a person 2]

alternatively, sell me on one or both of town!bob or town!egix

that would make it at least a bit more palatable for me

[u r a person 2]

ausuka is a she. can you say the bit about ausuka agian, not following what you're trying to say exactly

sorry ausuka I didn't mean to misgender you.

I was saying that I think one or two of bob/egix are scum independent of a read on ausuka. So scum!ausuka requires me to believe there is at least one scum on them right now, which I don't really have a reason to believe, or that they are both town

[u r a person 2]

I'm not sure I understand, Garmr. Are you claiming a green check on bob?

[u r a person 2]

might as well full claim, doncha think?

[u r a person 2]

Ok well let's not lynch Garmr or bob today. Garmr's play has kinda bothered me but not so much that I can be sure it wasn't from being a PR.

Am I failing as IC if I say I want today's lynch to be between skitter, ausuka, and egix? Statistically even if my reads are awful there should be one scum in there right?

I guess I'm still just feeling pretty low confidence on my reads overall and I don't want to push the town in a bad direction just because I haven't processed all the evidence well enough yet

VOTE: egix
@skitter cool cuz i'd pref it

[u r a person 2]

I see no reason not to believe the claim. If he doesn't hit scum with inferno tomorrow, we can direct his next attempt

[u r a person 2]

And on the last point. It was going to be all in one big post but mafiascum is always cutting out for me. So I made several smaller ones rather tahn one bog one to avoid getting to the end of only to lose it all. When the webpage fails when i press sumbit. Forgoten how many times i lost what i was going to type in deifferent locations. Usualy with me replacing what migth ahve been 400-800 words with a single sentance.

You did it over multiple days, though, so I'm not sure how it makes sense that you just wanted to finish your one big post?

[u r a person 2]

Ah, so it's not that skitter has more scum equity per se, but rather that you would gain more info from her interactions with other players? I see.

It seems I don't understand "scum equity". I thought my reasoning was about scum equity. Can someone teach me in a few lines?

scum equity basically boils down to the chance that a slot has to flip scum.

So if you think that player a has a 60% chance of flipping scum and player b has a 40% chance of flipping scum, then player a has a higher scum equity.

Even a player you highly town read has a small amount of scum equity

[u r a person 2]

3 confirmed town were at the end of the sash wagon. the counter wagon was confirmed town.

oh yeah, nm on that bit a sec ago bob. I mean, it didn't make sense but I forgot you were basically conf!town

[u r a person 2]

skitter, why did your read on me go from scum to town again?

I can't remember

[u r a person 2]

@skitter okay how about this

where did you go wrong in scum reading me to begin with?

[u r a person 2]

I'd really appreciate a thought out answer here, if you can swing it

[u r a person 2]

I guess I don't really know. Thanks, skitter

[u r a person 2]

I said the line in red because I thought it made the case stronger. I was basically saying "I think this is scum for x, and don't misconstrue this as an activity read because it's scummy regardless of their inactivity."

[u r a person 2]

scum equity basically boils down to the chance that a slot has to flip scum.

Ok thanks, this is so not what I thought it was. I thought it meant "value of a flip"and not "% of scum"

np. It's a term that originates from poker (pot equity), where it actually has a meaning closer to what you're talking about.

In poker, it's (% chance to win the hand)*(money in the pot) so in that realm it really does mean value rather than % chance of success

but in mafia it has a simpler meaning

[u r a person 2]

I don't like that definition =(

policy lynching RC is anti-fun ;P

[u r a person 2]

lolol - at least the valley is narrow~

[u r a person 2]

I think we lynch Ausuka here actually for trying to argue the proc off of me. I don’t see a reason to do it as Town and a LOT of reason to do it as scum.

I could see it being a town gambit to stop a double kill if you're town

This on it's own is a bad reason. Still not sure why Ausuka is the counter wagon over egix

[u r a person 2]

This game seems slow for three competing wagons with 24 hours left

Sashaddin we're not lynching Garmr today. How do you feel about Ausuka and Egix?

Yeah, egix. Lynch that.

[u r a person 2]

Is town dumb this game because it's easy to see that sash is scum.

I'd appreciate you not making comments like this in the future. Thanks, mate! =)

[u r a person 2]

Exactly, you were in no danger of getting lynched but then sabotaged your options for investigation in the night. And now you're okay dying as a strong town investigative. Your play this game does not reconcile with your claimed role and given your propensity for lulzy nonsense claims as scum that seems like a fairly simple explanation for what's going on.

if garmr is scum, what is bob's alignment?

[u r a person 2]

actually forget that question. There's scum in the three main wagons. Hop on egix with me

[u r a person 2]

urap you seem relatively confident in your ausuka read but I don't really see a lot of specifics. what posts did you reevaluate in 1238 and why do you feel so much stronger on egix today than ausuka?

Sorry, just to clarify, are you asking me which posts I reconsidered to get to the scum read in 1238, or are you asking me what I reconsidered to get to where I am now?

[u r a person 2]

so the switch to scum read it was 67, 162, and 292. by then (or somewhere around there, i don't actually remember) it clicked and I just stopped reading

I haven't 100% switched back to a town read, but ausuka did show examples of a town game with a similar level of over explanation, which undercuts that read. I'd lynch there at deadline, but why not egix?

[u r a person 2]

That said, if she is scum. this game, she is putting in a tremendous amount of effort. Most of what you noted as pinging you is either a personality tell from skitter, or, in the past, town tells for skitter.

You didn't react to that at all when it was basically said here?

I listed skitter as my top scumread and activity was definitely a part of why there aren't any wagons on her now

I'm not sure I think urap is scummy for that argument I just think it's a weak reason to tr skitter, I know he said there was other stuff but eh

effort in this post did not mean activity. It meant that she was making posts that were hard for scum!skitter to make.

[u r a person 2]

I’m going to take this hammer to end the day. No one else hammer.

then how will i be able to bus sash?? =(

[u r a person 2]

[u r a person 2]

sorry urap but your time is up. we lynch you d3.

ok sounds good

[u r a person 2]

If you're going to hammer, Inferno, you should probably do it.

[u r a person 2]

It's too late for that mate. 6 hours on the clock. If not you, I'll do it

[u r a person 2]

It's too late for that mate. 6 hours on the clock. If not you, I'll do it

No it’s not
Between you, me, and DP, we can do it

yeah, but I'd rather the lynch be on egix...

I am not sure I'd rather it be ausuka over sash.

[u r a person 2]

I'm sorry, there has been a mistake. The last couple votecounts have had the deadline off by 2 hours. There are 8 hours left.

so troll~

[u r a person 2]

I also apologize for being such a distraction this game. I have learned a lot though, so thanks to everyone who took the time to answer my questions.

Every game we get better. Don't beat yourself up. Maybe it will turn out your reads were great? Who knows

[u r a person 2]

You think Garmr is attempting to claim a mechanical inno on a scumbuddy with 0 investigative tprs claimed?

That would be a pretty ambitious play

I was in a game recently where scum claimed a pr on day one like 24 hours in with no pressure on him

[u r a person 2]

I'd say it's Garmr, Bob and one of Ausuka or Skitter. Because scum has to have a girl, right?

Ok what the hell

Hello friends.

are you okay?

[u r a person 2]

This still stinks of mislynch just not sure who it's correct to derail this onto

not sure I'm going to be around much next seven hours and I do not want to risk a no lynch

If we were going to do this, you should have voted egix a day or so ago

[u r a person 2]

VOTE: sash

[u r a person 2]

I was more saying if Garmr is scum bob is more likely to be a pocket than a scumbuddy so listing them as s/s is an interesting read.

sure. my point was that scum does weird shit sometimes.

[u r a person 2]

@garmr Are you a hider, and if so, who did you hide behind last night?

[u r a person 2]

ty garmr

[u r a person 2]

VOTE: egix

I buy ausuka claim

Busy until about noon pst

[u r a person 2]

VT, btw

Setup spec not really my forte

[u r a person 2]

I see no reason not to believe it atm? I don't think ausuka had a reason to soft their result. They weren't dying over inferno really ever

[u r a person 2]

Can you talk me through the balance problems behind the claims as presented?

I'll go look at the rest later when not on mobile

Egix has been scummy independent of claims all game but we can't get a wagon on him. Probably scum regardless

[u r a person 2]

Can you talk me through the balance problems behind the claims as presented?

I'll go look at the rest later when not on mobile

Egix has been scummy independent of claims all game but we can't get a wagon on him. Probably scum regardless

.
when did this opinion of yours sprout?

I don't remember exactly when but it's been a while mate. Go look

[u r a person 2]

If all claims are true and town we can have 4 clears day2 and 5 day 3.

I mean, does this sound reasonable to you?

so 13 player start, by day 3
1 clear immediately (IC)
2 clears from masons
1 clear w/ potential for false guilty from neapolitan on d2
1 Low chance (1/8 or 2/8 if scum spreads their kills over two nights) of a guilty from detective

so yes, 5 by d3 is possible, but it's a dramatically more likely that it would be 4 by d3, and possible that it would be 3 by d3 and a false guilty

that's not feeling outrageous from my perspective, but like I said, it's not my area of expertise

[u r a person 2]

ah, i hadn't done the math, and didn't realize their had to be a fake claim.

I think of the vt's (exilon, egix) egix is almost certainly scum. I don't really read exilon as scum, but it's possible

In order of likeliness, I'd say Egix + Garmr + Bob
then Egix + Exilon + skitter
then Egix + exilon + ausuka

[u r a person 2]

1 scum in {ausuka/gamma} - very much probably ausuka

I mean, there's no way for it to be gamma and not ausuka, right? Did you think this through?

[u r a person 2]

There should be more votes on egix =/

[u r a person 2]

do u believe my claim? do u think i'm scum here?

ah, i hadn't done the math, and didn't realize their had to be a fake claim.

I think of the vt's (exilon, egix) egix is almost certainly scum. I don't really read exilon as scum, but it's possible

In order of likeliness, I'd say Egix + Garmr + Bob
then Egix + Exilon + skitter
then Egix + exilon + ausuka

[u r a person 2]

Why what, skitter? why all of it?

[u r a person 2]

You'll have to wait if you want me to sift through and remind myself why (I'll do it, but not now), but I've been town reading ausuka for most all of this game

Bob has been scummy af, garmr's hider play seems like a great way to get over the hump to day before lylo and he seems like just the kind of guy to look at bob and say 'okay, if we're going to keep you alive we're going to have to get creative' And I've had a low-key paranoia about him forever (I'm not sure I ever mentioned it, so scum read me for that if you'd like)

You, I was quietly second guessing my town read on by the end of d1, and I was starting to actively question it I think end of day yesterday (might have been beginning of this day, but wherever I started pointing questions towards you). And like, you've modded a town game of mine, played scum as a partner of mine, and played as tvt with me. So you being so wrong for so long, switching to a town read on me with no explanation, and now switching back is ??? This is simply not my scum game and of everyone in this thread, you should be the one able to see that.

More to the point, egix is fucking scummy and we should have lynched him yesterday.

put it all together and that's where I'm at. We're pretty heavy into PoE territory here, and obviously scum has slipped under the radar for a couple of days now, so I'm not even sure I can make great cases on any of them.

[u r a person 2]

idk i might just be in conspiracy-theory land
but ic + odd night nea + even night det vs 2 scums feels the most balanced way of spreading around the power to me idk

what about this same idea, but also scum!egix, making it 10:3

because that's my favorite world.

I'll go back through ausuka early tomorrow morning before work

[u r a person 2]

Notice here that the out of the 3 wagons urap2 has the most townies on it the only person to vote Urap2 is skitter. there must atleast be one scum on the sash wagon at this point.

must? lol certainty

[u r a person 2]

This is a lynch notice the amount of confirmed townies on the rui lynch compared to the sash lynch. This shows rui lynch was heavily scum pushed. The only way that there is scum off the wagon is if it is skitter.

hrg is also basically confirmed at this point because ausuka, just sayin

[u r a person 2]

oh i guess must isn't a stretch from your pov, my bad

[u r a person 2]

tbh, a lot of those vote counts become easier to read once im confirmed town

from any perspective but mine im probably a decent lynch. I'll take that one for the team if I can get a guarantee on an egix lynch tomorrow.

[u r a person 2]

I just read ausuka's iso. I guess she could be scum, but if you take away the overexplaining bit, her entire D1 thought processes seem pretty reasonable to me, and they seem like scum hunting.

I'd really rather not lynch a potential pr on the day before they get another check, either. Why would we not wait? If she is town, scum has to choose between killing her tonight to stop the check, and mislynching her tomorrow after the check.

If she's scum, we get the wifom of her 'check' before lynching tomorrow

Egix, on the other hand, I see no reason to wait on.

[u r a person 2]

and skitter from a setup perspective, I'm not sure how likely I think it is that detective is real over nea in this instance. nea is a stronger investigative, with an earlier check. the idea that the only investigative doesn't get a result til start of d3, most likely gets a worthless result, and then doesn't get another result until d5 seems really really weak. It's barely better than getting just the ic + masons. It's basically a named townie that can't confirm themselves in MOST instances, because you're unlikely to EVER hit the person who made the night kill.

so a pure setup spec argument here just isn't resonating

Let's lynch egix for his scummy play

[u r a person 2]

moral of the story, vote egix with me, even if it means you have to bus.

I'm not voting ausuka today.

[u r a person 2]

I'm not even sure that the premise, that IC + odd nea + even detective vs 3 goons isn't balanced. It actually seems kind of in line with one shot FV (with multitasking to get him mislynched) + 1 shot loyal neighborizor + vig vs a goon and a follower

1 real check, 1 vig which is only somewhat pro town, and a named townie with a role that nearly ensures they get mislynched is pr

relative power doesn't feel that off between the two games

I'm also not convinced that gamr couldn't have started planning this the moment bob made his first post which was so yikes I basically gave it a too scummy to be scum read

[u r a person 2]

mate, you lied about your role yesterday

so get out of here with this "how could anyone doubt me" stuff

[u r a person 2]

you want to show that me that you guys are real? give us paraphrased versions of every post in your pt

[u r a person 2]

actually, i'd check with the mod, but you can probably just copy paste every post so long as you don't grab the timestamps

[u r a person 2]

get with the paraphrasing

[u r a person 2]

or just vote egix

[u r a person 2]

and your response to that post?

[u r a person 2]

ah, i wish you had paraphrased or copy/pasted as I suggested =/

[u r a person 2]

yeah, that's me, the trickster, suggesting you check with a mod before doing anything more than paraphrasing

[u r a person 2]

i really hope so because cleaerly true-claiming

can we lynch egix now?

[u r a person 2]

opposie of fake-claiming

[u r a person 2]

so those walls feel to me like svs~~~~~

[u r a person 2]

like, wtf urap2?

hey man, i get it the noose is closing in

there are only so many slots that can be scum

scum didn't hit any prs in the night, chose not to kill the IC, and it doesn't look like they're gonna get a mislynch off on a pr today

so while it might feel to town like scum is winning, I think they're in a pretty bad spot, and I could see why they might be trying to distance hard enough to see someone get through lylo

[u r a person 2]

in fact, i'd go so far as to say that all associations from now forward that point to svt or tvt should be viewed in this light. We should be expecting scum to try and bus their way to a win

[u r a person 2]

So given that the following people are town, and at this point I do think it's a given
Pikachu
Garmr
Bob

and given that Gamma can only be scum if Ausuka is
and given that at minimum one of skitter and ausuka is town

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon

Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon

Of those 4 teams, Egix, Ausuka, and Exilon are found in 3 of 4
Skitter is found in 1/4

Given Town!Ausuka comes into D4 with a check,
The best lynches are Egix and Exilon

There is no team that does not include at least one of the two, so there is no way that I can think of (I haven't looked at the normal roles list) for town to lose tomorrow by mislynching one and then lynching the other.

Further, if one of them is a mislynch, then it is confirmed that Ausuka AND Gamma are scum.
If neither is a mislynch, then we are at 5p, 4T, 1S and 2 unconfirmed in {Skitter, Ausuka}

Thus, fmpov we're in auto right now without the benefit of further checks. This feels unbalanced, but I have to believe that's because scum chose to never nk the IC, and also never hit a PR.

Now, from our IC, DP's pov

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon
URAP

Possible Teams
Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon
Ausuka + Gamma + Urap

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon
Ausuka + Egix + Urap
Ausuka + Exilon + Urap
Skitter + Egix + Urap
Skitter + Exilon + Urap

Of the 9 possible teams,
Ausuka appears in 6, or 66.7%
Egix appears in 5, or 55.5%
Exilon appears in 5, or 55.5%
Urap appears in 5, or 55.5%
Skitter appears in 3, or 33.3%
Gamma appears in 3, or 33.3%

Gamma only appears in teams with Ausuka, making her a bad lynch today (because why not just ausuka instead? It hits scum on more teams.)
Flipping town on any of {Egix, Exilon, Urap}today ensures that one of {Exilon, Egix} and one of {Skitter, Ausuka} are the remaining scum. If ausuka is town, she can clear one of them tomorrow, confirming the entire scum team from her pov, and confirming one scum to the town player left in {Egix, Exilon, Urap}

Skitter is a bad lynch because of how little it cuts down the possible pool of teams if she flips town.

Ausuka is a bad lynch because ya'll don't get the benefit of her check if she flips town. On the other hand, in every world where ausuka is town, skitter is scum, so this would guarantee that 5p lylo is achieved.

So, fmpov egix and exilon are fine lynches (i prefer egix of the two)
and from ya'll pov it should probably be ausuka.

[u r a person 2]

basically what I'm saying is that I guess I'll vote either egix or ausuka, and since I'm sure that ya'll will want ausuka over egix because of the above, I'll vote there

VOTE: ausuka

that's two votes on ausuka

[u r a person 2]

and just to summarize again fmpov

If ausuka is town, the team is exactly
Skitter + Egix + Exilon

If ausuka flips scum, flipping {Egix, Exilon, Gamma} in any order wins the game 100%

[u r a person 2]

I was kind of relying on skitter's setup spec, but is there a world where BOTH skitter and Ausuka are scum?

That would mean IC + Masons vs 3 scum of some variety. Would IC + Masons vs 3 goons be balanced? Seems like it might be?

[u r a person 2]

IC + Masons vs 3 goons would be somewhat similar to 10p mountainous with 3 goons without the drawback of playing days with even numbers, and with the added benefit of having a higher town:scum ratio (meaning harder for scum to derail lynches, and also giving town an extra 2 lynches)

Mountainous ev rates can be found here

It looks to me like adding an innocent child at higher slots (8:3, 9:2, etc) adds little to no expected value to town's winrate

adding 2 masons at lower slot numbers (7p, 5v2) increases town win rates significantly, but given how they are expecting the games to play out and by my own intuition, the value of masons to town ev should decrease as player count increases.

So I think that means it's not balanced at ic + masons vs goons

[u r a person 2]

That doesn't account for the possibility that you are lynched. I know that the pool contains four. Let me find the truth tonight and you can lynch me d4. If we lynch scum Egix today that's auto.

Det, garmr, bob and gamma replacement you four at least should listen, they can't get the lynch without you.

the bottom half of my large wall is from our IC's perspective, and does take into account lynching me.

[u r a person 2]

Mountainous ev rates can be found here

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... EV_Project

[u r a person 2]

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.

[u r a person 2]

And also what happened your belief in Ausuka claim?

garmr/bob became conf!town and I had a minute to sit down and run the numbers

[u r a person 2]

i don't understand how your wall reaches the conclusion I'm a good lynch. Like, it says I'm most likely by raw probability, but I think there are better ways of finding scum than assigning all scumteams equal value, and besides, no town composition loses anything by lynching me d4 instead of d3.

The crux of it is, in a world where i'm NOT conf!town (all town!pov's but mine),

yours is the highest % lynch that makes another slot conf!scum if you flip town.

Ausuka is a bad lynch because ya'll don't get the benefit of her check if she flips town. On the other hand, in every world where ausuka is town, skitter is scum, so this would guarantee that 5p lylo is achieved.

[u r a person 2]

But if you don't lynch me I could confirm the entire team???

(again, from all town!pov's that are not mine)
If we mislynch today, yes you can confirm the entire team, but ONLY TO YOU.

Everyone else still has to decide if you are scum or town

so it's not really confirmed.

It's the same issue as with my pov. The game is auto from my pov, but not to the slots that matter (conf!towns)

[u r a person 2]

5x vt
1x on nea
1x en det
2x masons
1x ic

1x goon
1x rolecop
1x roleblocker

Is that setup (or something else along the lines of stacked scum) balanced?

Pedit: 5p lylo isn't good. In 5p lylo you have exi, urap and egix and have to find the town. Compare this to outright winning the game.
If you lynch me d4 I confscum 3 slots instead of just one. What do we gain by lynching me today instead of d4 again?

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...

It's not possible because I'm town.

It's also not possible to either egix or exilon because (from their point of view) they are town.

but yeah, sure, you can argue that. You're arguing that the team is PRECISELY egix + Exilon + Me, so good luck with that one tomorrow if you succeed today

[u r a person 2]

I agree with your analysis after a first readthrough.
My vote's already in the right place.

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

I agree it is, and I'll vote egix again in a heartbeat if the conf!towns are interested

but I can't imagine they will be. I wouldn't be in their position.

[u r a person 2]

Pedit: if we mislynch today we also lose 5p lylo so...

If you are town and we mislynch you today, the lynch options in 5p are {Egix, Exilon, Urap} and only one of those will be town in that situation (again, all from conf!town pov)

So in that situation it's only a 33% chance to lose, and that's if they can't find a town read on me.

[u r a person 2]

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

fmpov, it's useless to consider, because they either fall into the world where only 1 of {skitter, Ausuka} are scum, and are thus already accounted for in my wall post

OR

They occur in worlds where I am scum, and I am not scum.

[u r a person 2]

However, why are we not considering mafia roleblocker, or other similar actions?

fmpov, it's useless to consider, because they either fall into the world where only 1 of {skitter, Ausuka} are scum, and are thus already accounted for in my wall post

OR

They occur in worlds where I am scum, and I am not scum.

Frankly, this should also be true of town!you's pov, so...

[u r a person 2]

No, I mean, if there's roleblocker we're not getting an Ausuka result
Which is kind of a wrench in town's plans (if I understood correctly), and is "guaranteed" to happen if Ausuka is scum so basically day 4 we'll be having fun trying to decide if we're buying her claim or not, I guess

okay so from my/your!town pov

the game is already auto, and roles be damned. Refer to the top half of my wall post and just switch my name with yours and you should see that pretty easily

But from conf!town positions, the best lynch is ausuka, meaning that a roleblock, etc. on ausuka is irrelelvent because we're lynching her today anyway.
Again, see the bottom half of my wall and just switch my name and yours for analysis from you!town's pov.

[u r a person 2]

@exilon and the world where ausuka AND skitter are both town, roles are also irrelevent to you and me because in that world, we are both scum together, and we both know that isn't the case.

[u r a person 2]

Frankly, scum should probably be arguing that bob + garmr + me is a possibility

because otherwise I think ya'll are fucked since you never killed the IC or hit another pr.

[u r a person 2]

Frankly, scum should probably be arguing that bob + garmr + me is a possibility

because otherwise I think ya'll are fucked since you never killed the IC or hit another pr.

well, you have a 33% chance if ausuka isn't scum, i guess, so not 100% fucked but still pretty darn fucked.

[u r a person 2]

Not shooting thet IC was a serious blunder.

[u r a person 2]

Not shooting thet IC was a serious blunder.

actually this in itself is a great argument for town!skitter, tbh

[u r a person 2]

if scum!gamr had those posts ready to go, he's going to win. Plain and simple.

[u r a person 2]

if scum!gamr had those posts ready to go, he's going to win. Plain and simple.

At least he was wrong about Sash being scum so there'll be at least that

LOL feels like a concession post??

[u r a person 2]

How so, I'm talking about the signature thingy

oh, gotcha ;P

[u r a person 2]

@skitter can you take a look at my thought process for the world where both you and ausuka are scum?

Like, I know you'll agree with me that it wouldn't be balanced, but could you walk through why I'm right for me?

[u r a person 2]

IC + Masons vs 3 goons would be somewhat similar to 10p mountainous with 3 goons without the drawback of playing days with even numbers, and with the added benefit of having a higher town:scum ratio (meaning harder for scum to derail lynches, and also giving town an extra 2 lynches)

Mountainous ev rates can be found here

It looks to me like adding an innocent child at higher slots (8:3, 9:2, etc) adds little to no expected value to town's winrate

adding 2 masons at lower slot numbers (7p, 5v2) increases town win rates significantly, but given how they are expecting the games to play out and by my own intuition, the value of masons to town ev should decrease as player count increases.

So I think that means it's not balanced at ic + masons vs goons

@skitter this post

[u r a person 2]

jeez, bob

ok who do you want?

did you read the wall post? literally best lynch fypov...

[u r a person 2]

lol ok

[u r a person 2]

not like i've given you the answers on a silver platter or anything

w/e ya'll figure it out

egix, ausuka, exilon only acceptable choices today for me

[u r a person 2]

VOTE: exilion
sure. not gonna argue here. strictly better from my pov, anyway

[u r a person 2]

pikachu is IC

Gamr and Bob are technically not clear but are like 99.999% masons

Ausuka is scum who is claiming odd night nea

skitter is town claiming even night detective

I'm town

and egix + one of {gamma, exilon} are final scum

game is auto from pov of town!{me, egix, exilon} but exilon can't seem to figure that out

Ausuka is the best lynch from the conf!town slots, but they can't seem to figure that out

and either of {Exilon, Egix} are ideal from my pov because, as i said, auto

[u r a person 2]

scum blundered by never hitting a pr with nk, and choosing not to kill ic

which is why we're in a great position after a couple mislynches

[u r a person 2]

i'll pull up the post for you that you said you would go through on your own one sec

it's not an opinion, lol

literally, if you are town and believe that the masons are real, it's auto

lose your calm all you want

[u r a person 2]

simply replace your name with mine and nothing changes. it is auto from town!your perspective

So given that the following people are town, and at this point I do think it's a given
Pikachu
Garmr
Bob

and given that Gamma can only be scum if Ausuka is
and given that at minimum one of skitter and ausuka is town

Possible scum are
Ausuka + Gamma
Ausuka OR Skitter
Egix
Exilon

Possibile teams are
Ausuka + Gamma + Egix
Ausuka + Gamma + Exilon

Ausuka + Egix + Exilon
Skitter + Egix + Exilon

Of those 4 teams, Egix, Ausuka, and Exilon are found in 3 of 4
Skitter is found in 1/4

Given Town!Ausuka comes into D4 with a check,
The best lynches are Egix and Exilon

There is no team that does not include at least one of the two, so there is no way that I can think of (I haven't looked at the normal roles list) for town to lose tomorrow by mislynching one and then lynching the other.

Further, if one of them is a mislynch, then it is confirmed that Ausuka AND Gamma are scum.
If neither is a mislynch, then we are at 5p, 4T, 1S and 2 unconfirmed in {Skitter, Ausuka}

Thus, fmpov we're in auto right now without the benefit of further checks. This feels unbalanced, but I have to believe that's because scum chose to never nk the IC, and also never hit a PR.

[u r a person 2]

i don't know what you're talking about, mate

you don't seem to be accepting that the game is auto from your pov which only makes sense if you're scum

Either agree with the analysis, or show me why im wrong but don't threaten to throw a hissy fit lolol

[u r a person 2]

conf town is being stubborn and wrongheaded. he should be voting for ausuka from his pov

but he's voting you

and voting you is a fine vote fmpov because, again, auto

so why would i fight it

again, this should be obvious

this game is boring now because WE'RE IN AUTO and anything to move it along is fine by me

[u r a person 2]

i remember you saying you agreed to it on first pass. i don't remember you going back and doing the analysis and confirming it, and your synopsis to sky didn't say "hey, we're in auto fmpov" so i figured you didn't get it or were simply scum

apologies if i missed a post somewhere

[u r a person 2]

I'll walk through the post step by step tomorrow with pen and paper
As I said right now was a first readthrough

this was the last time you mentioned it, so considering your synopsis to sky, I think it was correct at the time for me to say you couldn't seem to figure it out

sorry you felt insulted, but what was I supposed to think?

why isn't this game as boring for you as for me? is it because your role pm is red? probably amirite

[u r a person 2]

That's what I asked and what I'm currently waiting on an answer for

But basically we're at the point were mechanically there's only a few possible scum in the slots, and that's basically it.

this comment

[u r a person 2]

is what i was referring to

[u r a person 2]

Also, maybe the difference between our attitudes right now is that you're sure of the setup and don't see any plot twist coming about, whereas I have never had any game of mafia in this forum where I wasn't thrown for a loop near the end of the game when I thought the game was solved, so excuse me for still trying to be engaging with players. That shouldn't change anything from your pov at all

we've already massclaimed and the analysis works regardless of the scum roles because it doesn't require a night action by town pr

so like ???????????

[u r a person 2]

and tbh, now that we've confirmed that you're in agreement with the analysis, you should know that...

[u r a person 2]

oh wait! maybe the game isn't normal and there is an unlynchable scum

that would be a twist

seriously what possible twist could there be in this normal game, eh?

[u r a person 2]

no, not good enough. you don't think it's auto because you think there could be a twist. it's a normal game, so every possible scum role is available for you

What possible twist could make it not auto?

[u r a person 2]

if you're right, i need to know for my own analysis, and none of this is opinion or different ways of approaching the game, this is simply a logic puzzle

[u r a person 2]

fair enough. i look forward to it

[u r a person 2]

oh this game is still a thing

can ya'll figure out whether we're doing ausuka or egix or exilon or me today?

thanks in advance ;P

[u r a person 2]

welp

both ausuka and gamma are scum then

[u r a person 2]

unless DP is hiding a modifier

[u r a person 2]

welp

both ausuka and gamma are scum then

unless DP is hiding a modifier

further, this can be taken as confirmed to any town in {egix, me, exilon}

VOTE: ausuka

[u r a person 2]

yeah that's basically kinda where i'm circling back to but why does scum!sky implicate herself in this here? just claim vt and be done with it?

who knows

but there aren't enough players in the game for it to be true unless a town has fucked up and not claimed

[u r a person 2]

yeah basically
unless ausuka is town and scum is claiming vt? so i can see scum!sky doing this to try to semi-clear ausuka maybe? not sure this is in her scumrange tho?

not sure what you're saying here but

if dp doesn't have a modifier
and neither bob or garmr haven't claimed a modifier
and egix, me, exilong have claimed vt with no modifier

than for sky to be telling the truth, you and ausuka must be town

and that's not possible in a world where bob and garmr are both town because there are 3 scum left and I am town

thus, either sky is lying, or bob and garmr are scum

and that's not a hard call to make fmpov

[u r a person 2]

it's entirely possible that scum!sky didn't read fully enough to completely grasp the mechanical implications of this claim

[u r a person 2]

huh, i would have guessed nea would return vanilla on informed vanilla

whatever

[u r a person 2]

MY guess is this

sky didn't fully read and neither of her scum partners are online now

you asked her to claim, and in an attempt to pocket you and keep ausuka alive, she claimed that 2 town had modifiers (which would make both you and ausuka town)

then when we began conversing and the implications of this claim to the, in this world, TWO town in {egix, urap, exilon} she basically goes "whoops" and hard busses with the "non vanilla" bit

[u r a person 2]

or, second guess, it was all a ploy to try and get sky cleared enough to get through lylo by setting up the hard bus

[u r a person 2]

or, second guess, it was all a ploy to try and get sky cleared enough to get through lylo by setting up the hard bus

no, this doesn't make sense. It still requires sky to have not grasped the implications of the claim because there isn't a second claimed town!modifier if ausuka is scum

[u r a person 2]

>implying that if i was scum fake-claiming informed i wouldn't have read first

It's the most charitable read I have because the other options are

some town has failed to full claim their role (which is assuming they are just a BAD player)

or

you are just a bad player

I'd rather accuse you of being lazy than accuse someone of being awful at this game.

[u r a person 2]

no modifier here, obviously

[u r a person 2]

sorry, I'm waiting to hear back if my role would be returned as VT or not before I guilty Ausuka

I'm an informed townie, I know that there are two other town roles in the game with modifiers and one scum role with modifiers. Informed is technically a modifier so idk if i'd return VT or not to ausuka ??

dont see how this is me trying to save ausuka esp when me saving ausuka would hinge on a mechanical question i dont know the answer to

It's irrelevent anyway. If this becomes relevant we can talk it out

but i think we're all in agreement that we confirm everyone's claims wrt modifiers, and then if nothing has changed, we lynch ausuka

[u r a person 2]

Also just going to point out that i pushed ausuka waaaaaaay before it was cool

lolSkitter

skitter is conftown fmpov btw if its not clear

I'd put it somewhere between 97-99%

one might even be tempted to call it 98% ;P

[u r a person 2]

I'd put it somewhere between 97-99%

one might even be tempted to call it 98% ;P

this was an inside joke to myself btw. I sat and changed the % range half a dozen times before landing on one i liked

[u r a person 2]

Also urap did u just win approx 98 towngames over the weekend or?

I hadn't updated my win rate in weeks (months?) and rather than actually check and update it I just made up a ridiculous and obviously fake record as a placeholder

[u r a person 2]

I'm actually ascetic so there's the second modifier. This should make me confirmed town.

did you crumb this anywhere?

[u r a person 2]

I'm actually ascetic so there's the second modifier. This should make me confirmed town.

did you crumb this anywhere?

also, why did you decide to give a false inno on sky's slot?

[u r a person 2]

ok time to lynch

she's in no-spew mode

exchange with skygazer likely scum theater but maybe not

[u r a person 2]

someone slam it down

[u r a person 2]

nah i can only be scum if skygazer is also scum

the only players claiming modifiers are me and skitter who therefore must both be town if skygazer is town therefore if skygazer is town we have to be town too

yeah for sure, you're both scum =)

[u r a person 2]

I havent gotten around to doing the whole math urap2 sorry but doesn't seem like it'll be necessary after this

yeah i mean why would you want to figure out why it's auto from your pov

this is also scum

guess I was wrong on egix

[u r a person 2]

pika, bob, garmr still town

leaving

exilon, sky, egix

VOTE: sky
because her informed revelation is untrue.

[u r a person 2]

Will post tonight. Egix/exilon good lunches

[u r a person 2]

Driving back now. Be in place tomorrow. Literally auto so pick one of them and let's go