White Flag - TM2020

[Dannflor]

I mean we have 24 hours, time to start is now

[Dannflor]

I've been projecting a lot more confident about FF than I actually am

that VC is not what I was expecting tbh

[Dannflor]

yeah basically that ^

I think there's almost always 1 scum between NSG and FF and I've felt that way since NSG came in and voted FF.

I don't want to lynch NSG for what are mostly NAI things.

I still think FF is scummy. And I don't think people should be swayed by AtE that comes from a place that is NAI. FF would be frustrated here as either alignment I can guarantee that.

[Dannflor]

Also I respect Dunn's reads and still think he's town

but I think it's telling that he can't really town case FF

it's a gut read and I think it's likely he is *just wrong* here

[Dannflor]

Why didn't Dong vote Former there

Not a logical reason yes but i didnt check the vc or the deadline, i just wanted to get in whatevee i had in mind and go to bed

Not defending myself but i dont want anyone to get the wrong ideas either.

you can vote him now

[Dannflor]

I have four town players in this slot who all individually scum read FF

[Dannflor]

not cheeky

[Dannflor]

I think I'm wrong somewhere in my town reads though and it's probably in the [hop, kittymo, cephrir] grouping

[Dannflor]

Formerfish - 5

(BBMolla, northsidegal, Dannflor, Espeonage, Dongempire)

northsidegal - 5

(Kittymo, Cephrir, Dunnstral, Formerfish, gobbledygook)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro, CheekyTeeky)

for reference

Cheeky, Auro, I think you should vote FF

[Dannflor]

yup yup that's a good read

[Dannflor]

I need to sleep and am going to be extremely busy tomorrow

but just kill FF

[Dannflor]

I think Espe and a little Dong have been townier recently

[Dannflor]

I could switch to BBmolla.

[Dannflor]

I think I like Dong and Espe for town a liiittle bit more than previously

same

[Dannflor]

if no one thinks he's scum... we probably should not lynch him

[Dannflor]

VOTE: BB

[Dannflor]

fuck it

VOTE: NSG

yolo

[Dannflor]

I don't think that's very indicative. I feel bad for lynching people all the time even if I think they're scum.

[Dannflor]

BB do you still scum read FF

[Dannflor]

northsidegal - 5

(Kittymo, Dunnstral, gobbledygook, BBMolla, Dannflor)

BBmolla - 4

(CheekyTeeky, Cephrir, Formerfish, Dongempire)

Formerfish - 2

(northsidegal, Espeonage)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 1

(Auro)

I think that's accurate.

We have ~8 hours left.

[Dannflor]

the AtE works

[Dannflor]

both have had relatively genuine stream of consciousness posts recently

FF I guess I just struggle to reconcile a survivalist scum attitude with the way he's been playing around his wagon

I still think voting in [nsg, FF] is the correct play

so go nsg

[Dannflor]

nsg at L-1

[Dannflor]

No ones townreading me afaik

I have you as

~light town~

[Dannflor]

someone hammer I'm going to work

[Dannflor]

I think BB might be town regardless

[Dannflor]

Examine Hopkirk very closely tomorrow please.

*especially* if this reds

[Dannflor]

I think this game state is just a product of frantic/indecisive town

notice that the flash did not stick

[Dannflor]

Of course you would say that, you were one of the starting votes on it

that’s cuz I’m town turkey

[Dannflor]

cheeky, Dunn, ceph still core town

[Dannflor]

Kitty too

[Dannflor]

second guessing at the eleventh hour is what I do worst/best

[Dannflor]

no I think the suspense killed nsg

[Dannflor]

Regardless of flips BBmolla town I think

[Dannflor]

well shit

Someone hanmer

[Dannflor]

Oh god Dunn you fucking gave me a heart attack

[Dannflor]

Like I said, examine Hopkirk closely tomorrow. Especially if this reds his progression was really fishy (no pun intended).

[Dannflor]

I'm definitely going to be the Night Kill, was fun playing with y'all!

[Dannflor]

FF is probably town.

VOTE: formerfish

i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum.

The way nsg pops in here, puts down the vote, and then ducks out doesn't strike me as likely to be SvS. Especially the wording of this post, "i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum," she's careful to not even express a scum read on FF. It would be a very strange bus if it was one.

[Dannflor]

What's with this?

I was talking to Tom about the FF/NSG dichotomy when I was freaking out and having some doubts and he had kinda paranoia'd KittyMo. Later I reaffirmed my town reads and especially with Hopkirk's progression, I figured he was the town read I was wrong on, if I was wrong on one.

NSG can easily flip scum but that's still 40%ish at best. FF has scum equity with Gobble/Dunn but feels town taken on his own.

Hop 'hoppop' hop

Particularly I didn't like this post that claimed NSG could easily flip scum when Hopkirk did his best to stay on a vanity wagon EoD.

[Dannflor]

I was just looking back now at how some of the end of day stuff went down. My initial response to Dann's trajectory (just the one I happened to look at first) is... town???? Avoiding nsg consistently only to flip there in th 11th hour seems like a strange bus.

I'm a little embarrassed by my indecisiveness yesterday. However, from a completely non-neutral perspective, I *feel* like it's fairly obvious I didn't know NSG's alignment.

[Dannflor]

FF is probably town.

VOTE: formerfish

i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum.

The way nsg pops in here, puts down the vote, and then ducks out doesn't strike me as likely to be SvS. Especially the wording of this post, "i think this is the only current wagon likely to hit scum," she's careful to not even express a scum read on FF. It would be a very strange bus if it was one.

I thought of this, but on the other hand, throwing down some distancing with a post that was fairly likely to get her lynched may not be bad play.

I mean yes, but I feel like the distancing would have been stronger? She didn't even express a scum read on him. NSG feels like she's preparing for FF to flip town with the phrasing of that post.

[Dannflor]

My kill pool is:

[Esp, Dong, Hopkirk]

Probably in that order.

Esp for defending NSG not because he thought she could be town, but because she was a lurker, as seen in posts #663 and #1287.

Dongempire's defense is different, but still very bad if you look at

how many times he individually calls out NSG as scum

, but then never votes her until he's forced to. In post #758, he says the NSG lynch is "fine" and he's "not too thrilled with any of the other wagons." In post #1206, Dong soft defends NSG. In post #1293, Dongempire says his preferred gamestate is lynching FF first and NSG tomorrow, without introducing any reasons why. Obviously, this was also my position for a while, but I think I made it pretty clear why I thought so. In post #1295, Dong puts NSG into his team solve. In post #1396, he says he's convinced on NSG. Duunstral calls Dong out on his excuse for not hanging nsg, and Dongempire claims he doesn't scum read NSG over FF in post #1403. He

never

votes NSG despite repeatedly claiming he was "pretty sure" on her, until he absolutely is forced to in #1460. It looks like he was preparing for her red flip.

With Hopkirk, I especially didn't like this post:

NSG can easily flip scum but that's still 40%ish at best. FF has scum equity with Gobble/Dunn but feels town taken on his own.

Hop 'hoppop' hop

This comes after Hopkirk has been sitting on the NSG wagon for most of the day, yet also after Hopkirk has shifted to first Dunn and then Gobble once the NSG wagon picked up steam. Not being caught up is fine, but this is still a weird progression regardless and the gobble vote is especially bad when he wasn't even a wagon and Hopkirk had *multiple* opportunities to move his vote to one of the wagons.

Still feel like Esp probably? dies first due to the hard defense, but I'm open to discussion on these.

No one else really seems aligned. I still hard town read Dunn. Cephrir didn't really seem like he knew NSG's alignment yesterday. I still hard town read Cheeky. I'm still pretty confident on Auro. BBmolla and FF are probbaly town.

That leaves the above three.

[Dannflor]

Are they Cheeky votes because he was one of the main proponents of FF?

I can't say I really understand them. I also think Cheeky believing NSG had a good chance of flipping town and being upset about that EoD yesterday read pretty genuine.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Espeonage

[Dannflor]

I was just looking back now at how some of the end of day stuff went down. My initial response to Dann's trajectory (just the one I happened to look at first) is... town???? Avoiding nsg consistently only to flip there in th 11th hour seems like a strange bus.

I'm a little embarrassed by my indecisiveness yesterday. However, from a completely non-neutral perspective, I *feel* like it's fairly obvious I didn't know NSG's alignment.

My team and I do not agree with this

Is this something you want to talk about orrrrrr

[Dannflor]

^^^ Cheeky wagon is very bad

[Dannflor]

gobble here is the full progression if you need a refresher

Spoiler: dann is dumb

yeah alright

VOTE: nsg

dongempire is not exciting me much anymore anyway

snip

tl;dr: town core of [Auro, Cheeky, KittyMo, Dunnstral]

want to lynch in [FF, Esp, NSG]

could probably compromise on one of my mixed reads, BBmolla especially but ehhh I mostly wanna give those slots more time because I think they CAN become readable

VOTE: FF

This is what I want to kill most.

actually fuck it I'm gonna be around till the deadline I think VOTE: NSG

VOTE: Gobble

VOTE: FF

god im so indecisive right now

UNVOTE:

I’m gonna take a few hours break from the game and come back and make my decision. I think I need to take a step back and mull these last pages over

VOTE: NSG

VOTE: FF

I need to sleep. Be back in 8 hours.

VOTE: BB

fuck it

VOTE: NSG

yolo

it's uh, not good play. In retrospect I should've pushed NSG a lot harder, but my biggest weakness in this game (and probably in real life!) is indecisiveness and overthinking. I don't think all of my swaps were necessary from a scum perspective and I think if I was scum I would've played it better / committed to the bus harder.

Do you have other reasons for thinking I'm scum or is it purely in my wagon movements yesterday? Is Menalque scum reading me?

[Dannflor]

I could kill Dong instead

there's just a few of his posts that feel... too cute to be scum

but that's a bad reason not to kill someone

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

Dong can you go into your bottom reads? Specifically FF, Espeonage, and Cheeky. Can you rank them or explain where you stand on each of them?

[Dannflor]

Former was suspicious for me because he was trying to deflect into nsg. That was my big reason for not wanting to flip onto nsg and you seemed to agree with this until it wasnt cool

Esp and cheeky i can explain when i wake up because its longer but i sispect them more than ff

Formerfish I suspected for a lot of reasons. To clarify, you are still scum reading FF?

[Dannflor]

btw Ank thinks Cheeky is hilariously obv town and the wagon on her is terrible

I'm inclined to agree

[Dannflor]

He has played with both town me in Normal 2081 and scum me in AvP. I was wondering which game he thought my play here was more like. Obviously I have an opinion but I'm biased.

I guess I can't really hold it against him if he thinks I'm scum though considering Cephrir has also played with me as both alignments and thinks I could be scum.

Mostly I was just wondering if there was something about my play Menalque in particular was scum reading since he has experience with me. If it's just the wagon movements then whatever

Why exactly is Cheeky your first vote today?

[Dannflor]

what

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Espeonage

actually more comfortable on this lol

Dong is scummy but... He keeps making posts that I just, can't wrap my head around coming from scum

[Dannflor]

Espe seems like the obvious choice, I'm interested to know why Dunn is unsure. Too scummy to be scum?

I'm not fully sold that they are scum instead of playing badly right now

This is how I feel about Dong tbh

[Dannflor]

Why did you vote me over her then

this could be said for me and cheeky and everyone else who hopped last second

[Dannflor]

I stand by my logic for not voting NSG. I think it was still sound in the grand scheme of things. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 and it is easy to look back and go Espe defended NSG the hardest, must be scum.

I present an interesting observation. Dann agreed with most of what I was saying in the latter half of Day 1, and now is spearheading my wagon for reasons previously he agreed with, or at least saw the logic in. That smells really bad from my PoV. I think Ceph is on the right track here. Unfortunately, this means that the FF/Dunn team I was dreaming of isn't likely to be a thing. Not impossible, but also unlikely.

Vote: Dann

The 180 read based on a flip when I approached the competing wagons from a purely information and logic standpoint feels telling to me.

I uh, never 180'd my read on you. I started feeling a little better about you when I was most sure that FF was scum, but I've been scum reading you since D1 and that hasn't changed.

I didn't agree with your reasons for not killing NSG. I think your reasons and the way you presented them were scummy, LAMIST, and not something I agreed with. I also made this clear D1. My reasons for initially not wanting NSG dead did not have to do with the fact that she was a lurker but the possibility she was town and what she could possible provide D2.

I feel like I made this distinction very clear in #958 and you're trying to paint this as if I did a 180 in places I did not. Did I 180 wanting to kill NSG over FF? Yes, several times. Never did I change my mind on scum reading you and never did I agree with your reasoning on NSG.

[Dannflor]

We hammered like 40 minutes before deadline Hopkirk.

Can you please explain why you voted Dunn and then Gobble instead of staying on the NSG wagon that you claimed to have agreed with?

[Dannflor]

I understand you hadn't caught up, but I don't understand what motivated the change in votes if you hadn't.

[Dannflor]

I haven't even remotely caught up and won't until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

VOTE: Dunn

Imagine if it's just Dunn/Gobble/Fish.

(Currently at work and bathroom posting as i realized the submit button only disappears if I quote stuff or add formatting).

Hop 'hopping' Hops

VOTE: gobble

Hop 'hophop' hop

What sparked this progression Hopkirk?

Why did you vote Dunn and Gobble when you did without catching up?

[Dannflor]

I'm not calling you scum necessarily

just help me understand the why

[Dannflor]

Yeah, I mean you could say the same thing about people scum reading me for wagon hopping the other night. But it has to be considered and looked into anyway.

I think you're a lot townier than either Dong or Esp. But I do think your progression is *possible* to come from scum who was behind and was hoping NSG escaped lynching.

Where are your reads about at now? Still Dunn and Gobble as suspects?

[Dannflor]

also I think Espeonage's misrepresentation of my stances is scummy and a desperate attempt to take advantage of the paranoia around me.

I made it clear multiple times that I thought Espeonage's stances on NSG were scummy regardless of NSG's alignment. Either this is an intentional misrep or Espeonage hasn't been reading my posts very closely and thinks this is the best looking push for him.

[Dannflor]

Ok I think I can make my breakdown clear.

NSG flips town. We get absolutely nothing from it.
NSG flips scum. Great.
FF flips scum, great but also we have a bunch of shit to go on from that because they were actually engaged in discourse.
FF flips town, we can actually examine what this means for gamestate based on that fucking discourse.

Both situation are better for flipping FF.

yeah basically that ^

I think there's almost always 1 scum between NSG and FF and I've felt that way since NSG came in and voted FF.

I don't want to lynch NSG for what are mostly NAI things.

I still think FF is scummy. And I don't think people should be swayed by AtE that comes from a place that is NAI. FF would be frustrated here as either alignment I can guarantee that.

Uhhh, no misrep from me found. :/

I forgot about this. I was thinking of your logic early D1 and how I found straight up saying "lynching lurkers bad" in response to the attacks on NSG as not very productive and LAMIST.

Okay yeah, I did agree with you there. And it's possible I am conf-biasing with my reading of your case on me. To rephrase, my problem with your play is exactly your exact logic in the post you quoted, but how you initially framed it and defended NSG early D1 when the first wagon built on her.

If I flip town, what do your reads look like? Aside from me who are your top suspects?

[Dannflor]

play is exactly your exact logic in the post you quoted

is not exactly*

[Dannflor]

huh

[Dannflor]

I am against Lynching NSG on principle of lurkers being terrible day 1 lynches.

Ok cool, if there actually any reason why NSG has higher scum equity than other people?

These were the two posts I initially disliked/disagreed-with for full transparency. Because the reasons for her wagon were down to her scum meta being pretty blatantly lurking out. It wasn't until later that internet connection excuses came into the mix and I had reason to doubt the reasons for scum!NSG were more NAI than I thought.

It felt like you were just ignoring a plausible case on NSG under the guise of "it's never good to lynch lurkers D1." And I did agree with that later when my read of NSG had shifted closer to null due to her coming back.

[Dannflor]

663 is the tl;dr of 1287. Like they say the exact same thing. One just provides the background thinking. idk how you can agree with one and disagree with the other. Unless you were doing to argue that FF was lurking.

My reads had changed by 1287. I am always in support of lynching lurkers if they have genuine scum equity. Around 1287, I'd talked myself into believing that most of NSG's actions this game were NAI due to IRL circumstances. To me, lynching a scummy FF who would also give information was better than lynching a null NSG for little information. The point of disagreement comes when I was actually scum reading NSG, and there was a plausible case against her.

I don't think NSG had a higher scum equity than any other lurk slot. Like even post flip I would argue there was at no point a plausible case on her. The case was she has a reputation of being good and is lurking so Lynch her. That isn't a plausible case regardless of if it is on scum or not. It doesn't matter the player or the game.

This is quite a bit of a simplification? The case was not that she was good and not doing anything. The case was that she was good as town and has a very specific meta of doing nothing as scum. That in itself raises her scum equity over standard lurk slots.

[Dannflor]

The point of your response was to argue that I didn't have a single logical explanation for voting FF over NSG

I don't think I ever said this? Please quote it if I did.

Look, I understand where you're coming from with lurkers being bad lynches. I don't think I ever said that logic specifically is incorrect. However, I disagreed with the way you used it to defend NSG originally because yes! a scum tell that usually fits her scum meta does raise her scum equity! even if it's wrong sometimes. You not entertaining that point and using the often repeated logic of needing a high information lynch D1 felt disingenuous to me.

I agreed later because I'd felt my reasons for NSG scum had lessened and FF had become a much spicier lynch, but I digress. This feels like a semantics or language issue we're having because I thought I was always very clear it was the way you originally used that defense I took issue with. We were wagoning NSG and you popped in with "lurkers are bad lynches," which is not bad logic in theory, but felt like a LAMISTY attempt to discredit the wagon on her without even considering the valid point raised against her.

I don't think I ever said you never had a reason to vote FF over NSG. That would in fact be very hypocritical. My issue with you has to do with the fact that you did (and are still) dismissing the issues with NSG as nothing, even though they were valid reasons to scum read her. Like your point about meta tells sometimes being different otherwise they would be a trust tell is silly because the logical conclusion to that as a dismissal is that we just shouldn't use meta at all.

You were treating NSG like any other lurker and boiling it down to "lurking lynches bad." Even though the case was deeper than that. There was a reason NSG got wagoned over another lurker like Dong.

[Dannflor]

If I flip town, what do your reads look like? Aside from me who are your top suspects?

[Dannflor]

eddie has commented that your attitude of hating this game/playerlist/life/universe all of D1 makes a lot more sense if you rolled scum with NSG

[Dannflor]

I think Hopkirk is all around much townier than either Dongempire or Espeonage. Like I can *see* it, so I'm not gonna go off at his wagon like I did with Auro, but he's definitely not my first choice today.

[Dannflor]

I might be ascribing town points to Dong's posts because of Dong™ things and not things that are actually town indicative. Because a lot of it feels too wolfy to be wolfy but if Auro says he's just like this then that might be a bad thing to fall back on.

Espeonage, the only thing I really have to say is that it doesn't matter whether or not you believe in meta as a scum hunting tool. The fact of the matter is there was valid reason to believe NSG's scum equity was higher than other lurkers for the other players in the game. And even if you personally don't subscribe to using meta in mafia it didn't seem like you were even recognizing the concerns people had, instead discrediting them as just-another-lurker-lynch.

[Dannflor]

A Message from Eddie Cane!

(paraphrased to the best of my ability while still trying to maintain the intended effect and meaning)

My reads immediately after seeing NSG red, without rereading the game, were:
Dann, Dunn, Kitty
FF, Cheeky, BB
Auro, Gobble
Hop
Dong
Esp

I have read today, and I don't really think it changes anything. I'll expand on this later.

I was the first pusher for killing NSG in our team. I don't blame you guys for having concerns about Dann on a surface level, but I think it's actually ridiculous to really consider this slot as scum. Look at his wall reads post, look at his EoD acitivity, look at him being part of the momentum back to NSG. It's natural. Is it weird to proxy town case my own teammate? It should be pointed out, however, that both flips have been correct reads from him, and lynching that on day 2 in this setup is nonsense. Also #1436 was the post that spurred momentum back on NSG and this is WF no paranoia lolbus crap. The kill pool I gave Dann was originally nsg > ff > esp > Gob > Dong. Later, I became confident FF and NSG were TvS. I thought they were both independently scummy. The logic was if NSG is scum then FF is a survival vote (especially when there's another wagon on the table), and if NSG is town then that strengthens my own read on FF since I respect her reads. I encouraged Dann to vote within those two. Now, I firmly do not believe FF is scum. It's possible I will regret those words, but I do not feel at all like they were SvS (even despite FF not ending the day on NSG).

Ceph is like, the most obvious town of all towns. I forgot to mention him in the above reads list but I can't really ever see him as scum.

I think Dunn's posting is just suicide if he's aligned with NSG. Dunn is independently townie already, and his defense of FF only works if FF is also scum or if he's trying to pocket FF. I don't think FF is scum, and a FF / NSG / Dunn team makes no sense from EoD. Dunn was already town blocked, there's no reason to burn that cred and bus the non!FF partner. If Dunn is aligned with NSG and not FF, then... He's just going for the deep game pocket on FF while bussing his partner in White Flag? When two scum dead means the end of the game? No. The only way that is possible is if the other scum is like Ceph or Cheeky or maybe Hop who is widely town read and even if that's the case, Dunn is still just townie. #1394 isn't a partnery post either.

Cheeky is dead on with his town game. I nailed Cheeky as a deep wolf in a game I subbed into here: viewtopic.php?p=9999919#p9999919 . I think his town game is pretty billboardy. He doesn't enjoy scum as much as town, and tries harder than some players. Not the hardest read as long as you look past the surface level. I am less confident on this read after the flip, but still pretty confident he's town.

My Auro town read is independent of his content. His interactions with FF end of D1 were more townie than not overall. However, there are two main factors going into this read that I should mention. Number one is that Duck has a 80-90% hard confident town read on him. And I'm factoring this in. The second point is that his wagon for a long time was just composed of my scum reads. Generally has much more town than not posts.

BBmolla pressing onto NSG over FF is weird if partners, especially since he could've taken the easy OMGUS on FF. Could be a spew if he thought he was gonna die. And I suppose in the name of BLAH BLAH INFORMATION LYNCHES BLAH BLAH then his alignment could be cool, since if he is town there's almost certainly scum in his flash wagon. But overall, he's slight town and I don't care to kill him. It would also be odd for BBmolla to kill KittyMo over Dunn or Dann or even Ceph when #1480 exists.

Turkey just sat on NSG for a long while. This is a weird slot in general, both as town and scum. So, no strong read. Has some okay interactions I guess.

I thought Hop was super town early on, and I influenced Dann's early read. Hopkirk is a pretty good player in my opinion so I'm open to being wrong. It's true that both his posting around NSG is suspicious and his upset attitude around day start is a bit suspicious. I'm not gonna complain about a free red flip. But I would feel bad being wrong on this read since I think he's played well as either alignment, and that stuff is a feelsbadman thing to get killed over if you're town. But, the associatives are a bad look. Overall a scum lean but not my top kill for today.

The flips are NAGL for Dong. Never been a town read. Awkward posting. Can die.

Esp has absolutely awful associations. Dismissing the NSG wagon was bad. His awful attitude is annoying. I don't really care to case this, but I think I should have some sway for obvious reasons? To me, Esp looks like obvious mafia atm.

It's possible I'm wrong on a town read of course, but I don't think the pool of [Dong, Esp, Hop] doesn't have at least 1 scum. My strength of preference is Esp >>> Dong >> Hop.

Now that I'm writing it out, I don't really remember why I thought FF/NSG was never SvS, but I'm just gonna sheep my past self here. If FF is scum, that'll probably become obvious eventually anyways. Not interested killing there today.

@Cheeky, since Pops is dead does she have anything to add here?

@Hop, I'd like to get some input from Hectic as well. Just general stuff.

[Dannflor]

Dong what happened to your hard Esp scum read

[Dannflor]

It's the hard defense of FF that's the key point there Auro. Momentum was going in FF's direction until Dunn stepped in.

[Dannflor]

Dong what happened to your hard Esp scum read

Lost it

Why?

[Dannflor]

Auros not my scumread, i think that defending himself isnt indicative of scumminess but rather misplaced focus.

Espeonage is my highest scumread right now and former would have to come second though its not half as strong as esp.

You never explained why exactly Espeonage was your highest scum read to start with. Why was that? And how does agreeing with his logic cancel that out?

[Dannflor]

If i was scum with her my priority would have been carrying her to d2, not bus her at the smallest opportunity

you didn't vote her at the smallest opportunity Dong

you did the best you could to voice suspicion on her but the only time you ever voted her was to hammer like hours before deadline

[Dannflor]

I think you're both pretty transparently town here and for whatever reason, you guys just can't see it in each other.

You guys clashed over a read (FF) in a pretty hardcore fashion but I think instead of recognizing you just disagreed on a confident read you jumped to the idea that the other person's confidence was scum indicative. I think the fact that a lot of other people in the game and outside the game hard town read you both independently is pretty telling.

[Dannflor]

Pathetic lamist lmfao

VOTE: Cheeky

Stop this esp wagon pls

dude you had Esp as your top scum read D1 by a large margin and never explained why

This is so awful

[esp, dong] feels too easy but like... What.

[Dannflor]

I still think these are bad posts, but with 100 more of these posts i think this is just her playstyle at least in this game and more importantly i dont want anything to distract from me riling up on cheeky.

they're bad posts but you specifically don't want a wagon on Esp?

What exactly makes Cheeky scum here? Why was him pointing out a more logical move for him to make as scum "pathetic LAMIST trash." This push feels so over the top and I can't really understand what your thought process or trajectory is here.

[Dannflor]

A random vote close to deadline doesnt make sense in my opinion.

It wasn't a random vote, it was the hammer. I had specifically asked someone to hammer the post before. Someone was going to do it. NSG was a goner. Why not hammer for the cred? This defense doesn't make sense.

[Dannflor]

No, I'm pretty sure it makes perfect sense.

go ahead and case Cheeky if you must. I think he's pretty town.

but if you are town I'd urge you to vote Espe

[Dannflor]

sorry, idk why I keep messing that up

won't happen again

[Dannflor]

Hey Espe, let's leave aside the lurker lynch argument for a moment because I don't think that's going anywhere.

Should also be noted that I reckon NSG is more likely to be town in my book than most of the other lurkers.

Why did you think NSG was more likely town than other slots here? What was your logic/reasoning behind town reading her? Or at least town reading her more than the other lurker slots?

[Dannflor]

i apologize if this is frustrating, but my team unanimously agrees that it's best for me to spend my time elsewhere. if i don't get nightkilled this game will be my first priority tomorrow.

dann, what exactly do you think my plan is as scum here? you know that i actually CAN play scum, right? i've endgamed as scum before in white flag (i'm CultOfAthena). i have the capability to put words to paper as scum, especially if it were team mafia, and especially with RC on my team. (personally i would say that the reason i say less as scum in general is more due to lack of interest rather than lack of ability, but that's neither here nor there)

this game is just as important to my team as the others, and that's exactly why we're going with this strategy. i would never be doing this if i wasn't confident in my ability to show that i'm town when the time comes.

voting me is a mistake and won't make me play differently. with the time left in the day and my focus on other games if i switched now then i likely wouldn't get an optimal lynch but i would still paint a target on my back.

these posts you town read?

[Dannflor]

I said wow the NSG wagon looks a lot better optically

then you chewed me out for having no commitment

then I decided to commit to FF

then people got cold feet on FF

I joined a flash wagon on BBmolla

BBmolla's reaction was townish and it didn't feel like a good compromise

so I said fuck it let's kill NSG in post #1436

and that led to #1523

That's why there's half a wagon on FF and BBmolla still in that last vote count

[Dannflor]

but like

why don't you just read the EoD

it has a LOT of information I think

[Dannflor]

I probably will. I am just interested in seeing the actions. Like talking about doing something near end day is all well and good, but it's the action that matters in a time like that.

Okay, but why are you asking me—your top scum read—what happened instead of reading/cataloging those actions for yourself?

Let me ask you, how many scum do you think bussed NSG in the last 2 irl days of the day?

Is this supposed to help solve me? The game?

Again, this seems like something where you can go back on your own and form your own opinion. I myself have made my reads very clear.

I'm not trying to be deliberately obtuse here but it looks like you're throwing out lazy questions that look like busy work instead of actually going back and doing the analysis you keep promising.

That said I am also wresting with, if scum is leading the town at the moment which is 'feels' like, then the narrative of yesterday likely would have been different. I'm gonna try and wrap my head around that conundrum and come back with some theories because all the momentum stuff points to scum in the mid charisma tier if that makes sense.

Like this is interesting, I want to know more about what your "mid charisma tier" looks like and who you think would be scum within it. How does the narrative of yesterday look different if scum is leading town?

But you're throwing vague stuff like this out there and asking me questions that look surface-level-solvey instead of just... doing it. I think the fact that you're asking me these questions instead of just reading those 7 pages speaks volumes about your alignment.

Right now, the only reads its clear you have are Cheeky and Dong as town and me as scum. What are the rest of them? If you're somehow town trying to see if it's possible that I'm town, then this is a really weak way to go about that.

[Dannflor]

uhhhh

we're both puzzled by that and eddie doesn't think he ever said pops was garbo

[Dannflor]

I'd also personally appreciate Pops' thoughts on this game as well if she has any

[Dannflor]

I'm very interested in his catch up at the very least

[Dannflor]

If Espe were scum, does he respond to a L-1 wagon with a single super chill post and then take a little time to actually do things?

I don't get the impression that Espeonage is a terrible player. Nor does he strike me as the type of player to freak out when pressured. Do you have other reasons to town read him?

Why are we not lynching hopkirk thoigh I am a bit confused on tgat

Why is Hopkirk your #1 scum read over others?

@Espeonage

, your representation of me in your points seems either deliberately off or conf-biased. I won't argue personally that I should get any town cred for swinging back to NSG end of day, but that was not the first time I'd voted her. I quoted my whole progression earlier today, but I'd gone back and forth between FF and NSG about three times with votes. Personally I think if I'd known NSG was as dead in the water as I now realize in retrospect, you would not have seen me with that indecision, and I would have just hard committed to the bus.

You even recognized this very thing in me in #1283 so I find your take on me now odd to say the least.

@Pops/Cheeky

, I agree on FF. I think I was rather quick to clear him based on the NSG vote, which is why I'm very interested in how his stances change coming into today. While I think NSG's specific phrasing still makes FF slightly lean towards town, I'm not as ready to clear him as I was coming into the day. I agree FF is not as impressive as town as I expect from him, which was part of my argument yesterday when I was wanting to kill him over NSG. There are other explanations for this though such as lack of time or the pressure TM brings.

I understand your paranoia about Cephrir—I think his posts about Espeonage this page were pretty bad—and I even had some tin foil hat theories about Dunnstral in my team discord (which I quickly scrapped!) earlier this day phase. But overall, I don't think searching for "the deep wolf" is going to be productive. I find it hard to believe there isn't one scum between [Espeonage, Dongempire, Hopkirk] with strong money on Espeonage. And one more lynch is all that's necessary to end the game.

I'm going to out this now:

Eddie Cane actually asked for Pop's reads specifically because Pops greatly prefers town to scum and thought the quality of her response/thoughts would be alignment indicative for Cheeky

as of right now Eddie Cane says Cheeky is lock town and this isn't a read that should be revisited until a hypothetical LyLo. I'm in agreement with this.

I think Eddie's read should be respected due to obvious reasons even if you don't respect my own individual town reads on Cheeky/Pops.

Still believe Espeonage has the highest chance of flipping red out of any slot. I would like to kill it quickly but FF and Hopkirk can have time to catch up first.

[Dannflor]

Espeonage, I find it a little weird your top town read in turn scum reads you. Does that give you pause at all in your read?

I'm surprised you haven't tried to engage with her at all on it.

[Dannflor]

Dann, Dunn, Auro, Hop, and FF

I would be very unsurprised if this was 5 town.

[Dannflor]

We don't need both scum, so I think anyone who was not in good town standing on the NSG wagon should just be excluded from the Lynch pool for at least a couple of days. Which I think removes Gobble, BBM, and Dong from the effective Lynch pool.

Can you re-explain this?

How does this make sense? This reads to me like "I only want to lynch townie people" for... what reason exactly?

I can understand a town read on Dong tangentially but why are you clearing Gobble and BBM—even if just for "a couple days."

[Dannflor]

Are you reading his posts today as town?

They're NAI

I just think from D1 he's townier than Espe

[Dannflor]

That doesn't follow.

NSG was likely dying anyway. If you're in "weak standing" you still bus for whatever town cred you can muster. I don't think a "weaker standing" team takes the stance of never bussing. Both Eddie and Tom are currently losing their minds in the chat about this logic and how little sense this makes. It's literally just Espeonage trying to justify killing towny people because they're better lynches for him. Tom is surprised he's not dead yet.

[Dannflor]

Dann v Espy is not tvt. I see Dann flipping red more often than Espy, at least Espy commited to a read, its a bad one, but a read none the less.

eddie cane has a message for you:

You're a good player dude. Please just sit back, take some time, and realize how dumb the idea from your perspective especially that Dann!scum is. If you are town, please get out of your tunnel.

[Dannflor]

Also, despite my indecision between you and FF

I did commit to reads on EVERY SINGLE SLOT

viewtopic.php?p=11512385#p11512385

I stand by most of them!

[Dannflor]

you and FF

you and nsg

[Dannflor]

The duck has offended me.

he said his kill list was:

Esp >>> esp again for good measure > his sanity

after reading your kill pool logic

[Dannflor]

yes

painstakingly paraphrased

[Dannflor]

yes

painstakingly paraphrased

Can you point to a post of your own where you show half as much conviction in anything youre saying?

That post reads like your TM mates realized that youre a sinking ship that needs its ballast adjusted quickly and the best way they figured to do that was to let one of them try to rehab your slot by putting out a reads list. This way they could workshop it in the tm pt and scum pt over night and would look like you finally sacked up and picked sides on people instead of going where the wind blows.

The post feels more fabricated than softener.

My fucking reads list!

Look I'm an indecisive guy in general, lack of conviction is a character flaw, not a scum tell.

But I did commit to reads on every single player.

[Dannflor]

Like did you even read my own personal reads list

[Dannflor]

viewtopic.php?p=11512385#p11512385

[Dannflor]

Thats 1000 posts ago, you still feel the same about everyone?

I've shifted you up and shifted BB molla up and made a few other adjustments but that's not the point.

The point is your attacking me for not taking stances when that's demonstrably not true?

[Dannflor]

End of day. There was scope for FF or BBM to be lynched instead but they ran out of steam which is when the consolidation on NSG happened. I have gone over how votes on NSG here make sense as scum, but there is also the point that there was scope to be stubborn without too much repercussion or just to ignore the thread.

So at this point scum need to make a decision to either bus, or play out for no Lynch or be stubborn and try and force on fish or bbm, a last two hours consolidation on FF was not out of the question.

Using all of this I think that any scum votes on NSG that exist in the final vote count are done with the express notion that they can carry out the game.

This is why I have excluded Gobble, BBM, and Dong from my Lynch pool.

Except once that final swing happened, being stubborn or ignoring the thread likely wasn't going to stop the NSG lynch.

Why *wouldn't* a low standing scum member want to snap up free town cred for being on the NSG wagon? Like you have this idea that scum wouldn't bus no matter what unless they're a deep wolf, and I just don't think that logic holds up at all. NSG dies D2 if she doesn't die D1, bussing is a completely viable play in that situation regardless of status.

[Dannflor]

I think you're both pretty transparently town here and for whatever reason, you guys just can't see it in each other.

You guys clashed over a read (FF) in a pretty hardcore fashion but I think instead of recognizing you just disagreed on a confident read you jumped to the idea that the other person's confidence was scum indicative. I think the fact that a lot of other people in the game and outside the game hard town read you both independently is pretty telling.

What skin do you have in this particular interaction that you feel you have to play referee between Dong and Cheeky?

Dunn and Cheeky*

They're both my strongest town reads??

I guess you could say I have some conviction there

[Dannflor]

Espeonage, you must understand why I am concerned, however.

From my perspective there is very likely to be at least one scum in that grouping you're excluding, probably you. You turning that around to thin out a consensus town pool instead seems to be playing to scum win con.

[Dannflor]

Also At what point did you go from lets consider lynching Hop to very surprised if hop flips scum? I just realised you said these things.

I did not say those things. I said I'd be unsurprised if you had just listed 5 town.

Hop and FF I'm more unsure about but they're conditionally much better than other slots. Granted one of those slots is you.

[Dannflor]

In case you haven't noticed you and Dann have more sway than most this game.

I agree with you on this, but disagree on who is more likely to flip town. I think Dunn has shown a high drive to solve the game and is making headway. Dann is letting his teammates post for him to post his own town cred.

do you actually believe this shit you're saying FF

c'mon man

[Dannflor]

like you are so much better than this from what I've seen out of town!you previously

[Dannflor]

I agree FF is not as impressive as town as I expect from him

You of all people are BoPing me. Fer fucks bro.

I think you're good, FF.

[Dannflor]

What have I been wrong about so far that I need to prove to you how towny I am?

Eddie thinks you are pretty strong town.

I have you close to that as well.

I think you have bad tunnel on me at the moment but I am not scum reading you.

[Dannflor]

Part of that is the NSG flip and part of that comes from rereading your posting yesterday

I am still c a u t i o u s because you haven't been as present/obv town as I remember you being

but as I've said I think there are other reasons that could be the case other than you are scum

[Dannflor]

also this interaction with you (though somewhat frustrating for me) has made me feel more confident in my town read

specifically 1943 feels like a heartfelt reach out

[Dannflor]

I feel more comfortable town reading that then your posts EoD yesterday just because AtE at L-1 is always kind of questionable whereas here you're not in danger and I still get the sense you feel this is important

[Dannflor]

than your posts yesterday*

I'm tired and should stop typing words

[Dannflor]

Thats 1000 posts ago, you still feel the same about everyone?

I've shifted you up and shifted BB molla up and made a few other adjustments but that's not the point.

The point is your attacking me for not taking stances when that's demonstrably not true?

Bro, i forgot about a post from a while ago. You know how much I smoke and I get it youre a little pissy that I didnt remember that and thats valid. If you want me to take Eddies advice, dont poke me more.

Yeah I was frustrated because I felt like you were conf biasing and not looking at my slot objectively

I apologize for being rather whiny last page

[Dannflor]

It does feel like a tunnel if you're misrepresenting me / framing my slot in a way that I don't really think matches up with my play this game

that's specifically what I was frustrated about and why I wanted to engage you because I was town reading you after the nsg flip

[Dannflor]

Like I think at some point you are more worried about your perception to me than anything else.

regarding this

part of both mine and eddie's (and Ank tbh, although she's had no say in this) play style as town is forcing town cohesion, which is why for example we were telling Cheeky and Dunn to stop arguing. I'm relatively confident it's TvT and it just clogs the thread, helping scum win con. If a town read of mine is wrong on me, I'm gonna try to engage with them on it. In particular, eddie wanted to address you specifically because you said I was scummier than Esp, and eddie strongly believes Esp has been open wolfing and is far and away the scummiest slot in the game.

I wanted to address you specifically because I thought your read on me was very off for reasons I've already explained

Also if you swap BB to Hop you have our exact lynch pool. nice.

I would suggest voting Esp but I think that's already been made clear so take your time getting back into the game.

[Dannflor]

hmmm

I have not really considered the bus being orchestrated pre-game

Kind of unsure that it reads like a planned thing?

[Dannflor]

RC’s attitude leading up to the event lead me to believe he would not be try-harding to the extent of micromanaging all his team’s games. I feel like the flips in other games support that.

Regardless, I don’t really believe it’s all that likely I’m wrong on two of my town reads.

[Dannflor]

yeah look at all that town cred I got for HARD BUSSING nsg

Espeonage, you mentioned an FF flip would be really helpful. How do your reads change if he’s green and vice versa? I feel like you’ve done a lot of mechanical analysis but I don’t have a good idea of what your reads are beyond me and Cheeky.

[Dannflor]

actually lol

If it was the plan from the start to bus nsg

Do I ever do what I did yesterday as scum

[Dannflor]

I don’t think WIFOM is worth the absolute mess of yesterday and sacrificing the hypothetical town cred I would’ve gotten for “following the plan.”

These two theories seem to be in opposition.

The theory is possible, and Pops don’t get mad at me, but I’m of the strong opinion that nsg’s play would not have differed regardless of how strong her team was. It’s obvious she had very limited time for Team Mafia, so regardless of the strength of her scum team and taking into consideration her skill set. I think this was always going to be her game.

[Dannflor]

Since even at her best NSG is still a very polarized player and her using what little time she had in town games would do more for her team than any scum game.

[Dannflor]

The only reason I’m being dismissive here is because I thought it was obvious NSG would be playing the same here regardless of circumstances.

[Dannflor]

Hopkirk, where does your hard town read on Gobble come from?

[Dannflor]

also to clear

you guys know that nsg is a super polarized player right? She doesn't have a magic scum game skill where she can just flip a switch and power carry if she rolled scum with dong and turkey.

"but RC could write posts for her," not only would he not do that but it would be obvious long term

[Dannflor]

and re: paranoia on me

I frankly think it's ridiculous to think that I am scum who pregame planned to bus nsg as fucking sloppily as I did and I'm... setting up Cheeky to be the nightkill? for reasons??

wifom is not a good enough explanation for that

[Dannflor]

I'm not angry exactly, I don't really ever get mad

just frustrated and a little confused

I don't tend to react too well to paranoia (see merchant's daughter and FOTM where the OG deep wolf meme came about) when I feel I should be obvious town, particularly since I think I'm a very readable player overall

[Dannflor]

eddie thinks:

Esp -> Hopkirk always hits scum

I've been leaning towards town reading Dong too so I'm pretty much in agreement

[Dannflor]

His full reads list for transparency:

Dann/Cheeky/Dunn/FF
Auro -> Ceph -> BB -> Gobble
Dong > Hop
Esp

[Dannflor]

duck would move auro higher and ceph lower but otherwises endorses

[Dannflor]

There are easier paths with less resistance that Espeon could be taking here.

What would those be?

I actually think Espeon turning on like... Dong or someone actually makes his lynch easier, and gives Espe less options long term.

[Dannflor]

Alright.

Espeonage, I think you underestimate how confident me + Eddie + duck are confident in our town reads. We have repeatedly given reasoning for all of them. We've combed this game backwards and forwards and checked ourselves on our reads. Ank has even weighed in on a few of the reads which means we're 4/4 in agreement on Dunn!town for example.

We've cased them. The only person in your lynch pool I think has a chance of flipping scum is Hopkirk. And we honestly think killing anyone else in that pool is against win con. I would expect you to be analyzing this game at deeper level than you are. If you want me to compromise with you, or hell even see that there's slight chance you could be town, you have to give a better reason for lynching our most confident reads in the game than this mechanical theory that—as I've already discussed—not an overwhelmingly likely scenario given NSG's range. Her scum game basically caps out at the game she linked when defending herself earlier this game.

I don't see you actually playing mafia beyond this. I even asked you repeatedly for reads beyond myself, Cheeky, Dong, and you've ignored me. The overlap in our lynchpools is one (1), the rest are in our top two tiers of town reads. We obviously don't give your case much credence, so why would we be compromising with our top scum read who is scum reading us for incredulous reasons?

Like, the point of your trajectory right now boils down to: "I want consensus town reads lynched," but you haven't actually explained whether you scum read these slots—beyond myself actually. Talk to me on Auro/Dunn/FF, why aren't you town reading them? What even is your read on them?

You're going after us for not "being as smart as you'd think," but my team literally wants you dead because your posts make no sense coming from a town!Espeonage perspective. And the consensus is that even in the very small percentage you are town, that killing you will improve the chance town wins anyway.

Especially in this case, why would we compromise with you in lynch pool that contains out own slot as well as three 99% town reads?

[Dannflor]

Look I included that I fit all my own criteria except that I know I am town. Flip me then start lynching in my pool.

That's literally what we're doing.

Hopkirk is after you.

[Dannflor]

If those were both to flip town then yes reassessing on our reads would have to be done but I'm pretty certain it's not lasting that long

[Dannflor]

What about the other scum

[Dannflor]

well tom and ank and eddie thinks the words "pure mechanical game solve" is really really funny in a mountainous game much less white flag

so I think your perception of Duck may be off or you're scum

and tom wants to ask you why you had the audacity to roll scum *again*

[Dannflor]

Duck would like to offer a new mechanical game solve

He has a guilty on Espeonage

[Dannflor]

[Dannflor]

we can just

end this day tbh

[Dannflor]

I think the game just ends

[Dannflor]

depends if people want more from Hopkirk

but I think that can happen tomorrow

[Dannflor]

also like uh

Can you commit to a read on Esp?

[Dannflor]

or we could do the pure mechanical game solve of lynching the towniest players

[Dannflor]

if you want to lynch him to test a gob/esp team that’s fine but might as well lynch me first if you all feel more certain about that

I will admit this is a strange post for town to make

[Dannflor]

auro maybe at least put him to L-1 if you're gonna reaction test him

[Dannflor]

Gobble, where are your reads at right now, holistically?

[Dannflor]

Gobble why are you posting elsewhere on site and not here

[Dannflor]

How about you answer the questions directed at you

If you’re town giving up is the worst possible thing you could do

[Dannflor]

What does Eddie think now Dann?

well Dunn had basically the exact same reads I do

and he has the benefit of having less paranoia attached to him

[Dannflor]

but I'm like... town reading Dong now?

[Dannflor]

eh maybe that's a bad read

[Dannflor]

There were just some things he said throughout D2 that I town read tonally and thought would be really weird coming from scum in his position

[Dannflor]

Pathetic lamist lmfao

VOTE: Cheeky

Stop this esp wagon pls

although this feels really over the top especially considering he was scum reading Esp

[Dannflor]

To expand slightly

Because we already discussed scum turbobus strats for white flag in this game I really dont think scum would look to turbobus in this game, at least until maybe late game when theres only 2 of them

1 scum wins the game

What? It literally doesn't

VOTE: Cephrir

You either didnt read your role pm or you're scum. This is such a stupid post to make

like this just seems such an odd angle of attack to take as scum

but now that I'm rereading D2 a lot of it feels like over the top frustration and I don't think I should be town reading that

[Dannflor]

My kill pool is:

[Esp, Dong, Hopkirk]

This is exactly my kill pool right now

I don't want to lynch Dannflor, Formerfish, Cephrir, bbmolla, CheekyTeeky, gobbledygook, or Auro today by the way, for various reasons

Which leaves Hopkirk, Espeonage, and DongEmpire

VOTE: DongEmpire

I feel like nsg wouldn't have happened without gobble though

I don't really think Gobble kills Dunn

[Dannflor]

Maybe that's too WIFOMY but it seems bad to remove someone who might defend you / redirect the wagon when you dying literally means game over

[Dannflor]

Like, I don't think the benefit of "oh scum!gobble would never kill Dunn" outweighs the fact that it makes his lynch that much easier

[Dannflor]

Dann should have been the universal townread NK. Or even Cephrir. Dunn being killed feels deliberate and I think the purpose was to follow his reads.

I'm confused because I thought Dunn was more universally town read then me

at least I assumed the kill would be between us too

I do not understand the "wtf" reactions to his kill but maybe my team just had less paranoia about him than you guys?

[Dannflor]

I wasn't paranoid of Dann

but now... dun dun dun

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Hopkirk

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

Can you guys towncase the turkey?

I think he's just like, a bit townier than Dongempire overall. I don't really care to town case him because I'm not completely opposed to lynching him; I'd put him about equal to Hop or slightly above in my reads list. I just like don't think he's as bad as Dong.

I said there was scum in the [Espeonage, Dong, Hop] triage and I don't think I'm necessarily wrong in that because I was wrong on Espeonage. And Dunn dying with the exact same opinion along with being someone who had (probably?) more credibility than me strengthens that

Gonna try to get my team to reread Hop because I have mixed feelings about him atm.

[Dannflor]

Dann same question

Probably:

Dong > gobble > either Hop or BBmolla; I am undecided and waiting for team input

Hop has gone up in towniness for me but I want to double check I'm not town reading things I shouldn't be

I'm pretty confident in [FF, Cheeky, Auro, Cephrir] being all town

[Dannflor]

Ankamius wanted me to post this stuff:

Two wagons from D1 have flipped opposite alignments, so revisiting Day One keeping this information in mind is likely to result in very obvious town or scum. In addition, the read people have on NSG is less alignment indicative than why exactly they have that read. She had so little content that there isn't much to justify any one read, so those are the reads I find very hard to fake. I'd go over that than any other day in the game. I haven't analyzed myself but that is where I'd start.

Also, if somebody wants to color VCs for me then I can give more concrete leads. (I, Dannflor, will do this in a few hours after I've rested, but figure I'd post that part here in case anyone was bored in the meantime)

[Dannflor]

I haven't had time to reread the game in a while so I kind of want to have the chance to do that before we leave this day phase

As tempting as it is to just chain a couple lynches and hope for the best

[Dannflor]

Alisa wants me to lynch consensus reads

fwiw eddie also thinks this game is pretty much a wrap and he's not worried about it because of the quality of the playerlist that he thinks is town

buuuuuut I'm very scared of getting over confident at this point

something something 70% winrate

[Dannflor]

omg Auro ur just arguing semantics all game long so anti-town

[Dannflor]

that was a joke btw

I have tomorrow off and I'll give this game a lot of attention

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, what would my flip tell you about the game?

[Dannflor]

I'm not ignoring the possibility of BB/gobbles but you're gonna really have to talk to me about FF/Cephrir if you think either of them is a good lynch.

[Dannflor]

Like worst case scenario is that Hop, Dong and you are all town and we've ignored BB/gobbles/FF/Cephrir.

I'm not really sure how my flip helps in this situation.

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

I think Hopkirk is actually my strongest town read and that's been backed up by my team.

Hey Dann when did you start scumreading Hop?

Examine Hopkirk very closely tomorrow please.

*especially* if this reds

[Dannflor]

Dong, I would like to see your Cheeky case still

[Dannflor]

Can you talk about why? Did Eddie start scumreading him too at this point?

The town read had become stale and I felt Hopkirk's trajectory regarding NSG was very bad. None of his content since that time has really inspired a town read in me.

I'm mostly disgusted with RC/North and irritated with the mod for enabling it despite prod rules. The lynch I absolutely agreed with as I fairly clearly said. I don't remember if I used the words I want to policy lynch this.

Eddie Cane's hot take is that Hopkirk tried to get NSG replaced, and failed. He mentioned this in viewtopic.php?p=11523485#p11523485

Also from EC:

I don't mean this in a "you're scum/I want to kill you today" way, Cheeky, but a lot of your takes are whack to me. You keep saying the night kills have been weird when Kitty and Dunn were the most obvious town people in the game. Dunn gave, exactly, the same scum circle as me, and even pointed that out. The only difference here is that there was less overall paranoia around him than around Dann.

[Dannflor]

Hopkirk tried to get NSG replaced

partner!NSG*

if that wasn't clear

[Dannflor]

Do you think Dann is easy to lynch?

I think after NSG's flip I was many degrees easier to lynch than Dunnstral.

[Dannflor]

Cheeky, what's your read on FF?

[Dannflor]

pretty sure Dong and Gobble have both expressed suspicions about me

FF was scum reading me up until like half way through last day phase

[Dannflor]

I still would want Dong or gobble over Hopkirk for the record

Still Dong at this point but I haven't gotten to my promised reread yet

[Dannflor]

fwiw

I town read Cephrir's disinterest because I imagine a lot of teams with a D1 scum lynch in White Flag have considered this game a wrap

That really doesn't fix the problem of this game being boring to play but I get where it's coming from

[Dannflor]

Does scum!FF kill Dunnstral over Cheeky, or even me?

[Dannflor]

Hopkirk, you’re not one of my top scum picks but that’s such a weird thought process regardless.

A: why do I need a Hop lynch to win? I think if I really wanted to I could drive a lynch on anyone except maybe Cheeky and Cephrir.

B: why would voting you be a scum claim? Why would Eddie have or even needed to have coached that? Why is the that the one distinguishing factor in my alignment?

[Dannflor]

I want to know who FF wants to kill

[Dannflor]

Eddie has a message for you Cheeky:

Do you believe Dann and our team would be taking a leadership role as either alignment? If so, what is this garbage push even backed by? If not, then let me entertain your Auro/Dann world for a bit. You believe they openly create strong associations and then openly bus their third partner Day 1? Remember the small little fact that Dann was the momentum swing to kill NSG?

And now, a message for you from me:

Hi, Cheeky. Can you elaborate on what exactly you're scum reading me for? Or if you even are? I'm unclear as to where exactly the suspicion comes from. You don't like me pushing [Dong, Hopkirk]. Lately, I've been considering [Dong, Gobble] as the best two lynches. Do you have strong reasons to believe these slots are town that I should be seeing?

I am town. I honestly feel that I am quite obviously town. I'm a bit more empathetic than Eddie when it comes to general *paranoia* solves. We all fall into them, I sure do and almost have this game. So I'm not quite as confused or upset as I think EC is, but I'm still a little frustrated and disappointed. This stuff has caused me to recheck my town read on you a few times, my pretty much lock town read on you after Pops posted her wall. My team was throwing around an FF/Cheeky team but... I don't really subscribe to that theory. I can't really see you as scum. But I think you are good enough player you should be able to read me correctly.

You say "unless you're like close to certain " I'm town that I should be flipped. Okay. That's fine. Only I feel I've exceeded the point this game where you can as certain as it's possible to get in a mafia game. I think it's possible for you to get there now. So, tell me why you're scum reading me. Engage with me in real time. Engage with Eddie more. What do you need to see from me?

I talk a lot about how my scum game is overrated. And it is, but I also like to think I'm a smart player. At the very least, you have to admit I have a team of very smart people behind me. So even if my surface level scum game is not that great in my opinion, I think I would avoid doing some of the REALLY AVOIDABLE WEIRD AF stuff that I've done this game from a scum perspective.

FOR EXAMPLE, if I am partners with NSG why the fuck does this happen:

Spoiler: absolute indecisive fuckery I am embarrassed ever happened

yeah alright

VOTE: nsg

dongempire is not exciting me much anymore anyway

H

tl;dr: town core of [Auro, Cheeky, KittyMo, Dunnstral]

want to lynch in [FF, Esp, NSG]

could probably compromise on one of my mixed reads, BBmolla especially but ehhh I mostly wanna give those slots more time because I think they CAN become readable

VOTE: FF

This is what I want to kill most.

actually fuck it I'm gonna be around till the deadline I think VOTE: NSG

VOTE: Gobble

VOTE: FF

god im so indecisive right now

UNVOTE:

I’m gonna take a few hours break from the game and come back and make my decision. I think I need to take a step back and mull these last pages over

VOTE: NSG

VOTE: FF

I need to sleep. Be back in 8 hours.

VOTE: BB

fuck it

VOTE: NSG

yolo

Like do you look at that and actually think I had the information of what anyone's alignment was? Really?

"I faked it to look too wolfy to be an actual wolf"

"I did it because there was always a chance NSG wouldn't die"

"I wanted to mess up VCs"

but like none of those actually explain what happened. I went back on NSG several times while there was a good chance she wouldn't have died. Like, can you really look at my EoD 1 posting and tell me you think I knew what anyone was going to flip? Really? And that I did all that AFTER hard associating with Auro my hypothetical scum bud? There are so many better gameplans for me to stick with as scum there. I could hard bus NSG. I could hard go in on FF. Even if I wouldn't have been good enough to, MY TEAM CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE.

In other ways too, I'm just town by meta. I'll keep the self meta case short because *vomit* but like.... I don't top post as scum. I'm never this level of engaged as scum. I don't think I'm capable of writing as quality a wall that I wrote in my reads list here as scum (you can check AvP for comparisons, my walls are much lower quality). I don't really think Eddie cares as much about this game and goes the effort to write as many posts/wall as he has.

I'm just town Cheeky. I understand paranoia, but snap yourself out of it if that's all it is. What are your valid concerns about me?

I think you're worried the game is not as easy as it looks. Honestly? I'm telling you that it is. Cephrir isn't scum. He's probably my most confident town read. You are not scum. Auro is not scum—I've gone over this read a lot because it would be awful if I was wrong—and he's just town. I'm not scum. FF is probably town. BBmolla I think is town more often than not. Hopkirk could easily be town. I don't really know that Dong/Gobble is the exact team (I don't think Gobble coming into the day hard pushing Dong discounts that as a team at all), but I'm fairly confident that one of these at least is scum. Maybe one of them is partners with BB or FF or Hopkirk, idk. But I still feel very confident in my town reads after everything. I think it really is just that easy!

Spoiler: flash wagon

Sorry BB.

VOTE: BBmolla

VOTE: BB

fine

VOTE: bb

If you guys won't go NSG and I can't interest anyone in a Dong lynch I can vote BB.

VOTE: Bb

Sure, tomorrow we can have a better discussion.

VOTE: BB
L1 i think

btw here's the flash wagon onto BB

I don't think it's all that likely this was all town. If you can come around to seeing that I'm town, and you town read Ceph/FF, then that's extra points for Dong!scum. That's assuming BB is town, of course, which might not necessarily be true. I'm open to debate on that slot. But that's something I keep coming back to as a reason for Dong over Gobble slightly. And then I feel if BB is scum it's probably with Gobble so he'd be my second choice anyway as my lower read.

I dunno. Talk to me. This game is very solvable today but us mislynching today followed by me getting mislynched probably loses the game. So let's hash this out

[Dannflor]

I felt FF's response to mine/EC's reach out last day phase was just-town™

[Dannflor]

but like that read could be a lot stronger if he was playing rnow

[Dannflor]

Hopkirk is my strongest town read out of the [dong, gob, Hopkirk] trichotomy simply due to the fact I think his early to mid D1 is super towny and a lot of his scumminess CAN be attributed to not having time for the thread since then

[Dannflor]

Spoiler: D1 complete

Vote Count

wguerts - 4

(

Kittymo

,

Dannflor

,

northsidegal

, Auro)

KittyMo

- 2

(wgeurts, Hopkirk)

Dannflor

- 1

(Formerfish)

Formerfish - 1

(Dongempire)

Hopkirk - 1

(gobbledygook)

Auro - 1

(Cephrir)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Not Voting - 2

(

Espeonage

, Joan of Arc)

Activity Check - Start of Day

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

With 13 Alive, it takes 7 to Lynch

Vote Count

KittyMo

- 2

(wgeurts, Hopkirk)

Formerfish - 2

(Dongempire,

Dannflor

)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dannflor

- 1

(Formerfish)

Hopkirk - 1

(gobbledygook)

Auro - 1

(Cephrir)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Cephrir - 1

(Auro)

Dunnstral

- 1

(

Kittymo

)

Not Voting - 2

(

Espeonage

, Joan of Arc)

Activity Check - Prodding Espeonage, northsidegal

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

With 13 Alive, it takes 7 to Lynch

Vote Count

Cephrir - 2

(Auro, Dongempire)

Auro - 2

(Cephrir, Hopkirk)

KittyMo

- 1

(wgeurts)

Formerfish - 1

(

Dannflor

)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dannflor

- 1

(Formerfish)

Hopkirk - 1

(gobbledygook)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Dunnstral

- 1

(

Kittymo

)

Not Voting - 2

(

Espeonage

, Joan of Arc)

Activity Check - Prodding Joan of Arc

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

With 13 Alive, it takes 7 to Lynch

[/area][/quote]

Vote Count

Cephrir - 3

(Auro, Dongempire,

Dannflor

)

Auro - 3

(Cephrir, Hopkirk,

Espeonage

)

gobbledygook - 2

(

Dunnstral

, Joan of Arc)

KittyMo

- 1

(wgeurts)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dannflor

- 1

(Formerfish)

Hopkirk - 1

(gobbledygook)

Dunnstral

- 1

(

Kittymo

)

Not Voting - 0

( )

Activity Check - Prodding Dongempire and wguerts

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

Vote Count

Auro - 4

(Cephrir, Hopkirk,

Espeonage

, Formerfish)

Formerfish - 3

(

Dunnstral

, Auro,

Dannflor

Cephrir - 1

(Dongempire)

gobbledygook - 1

(Joan of Arc)

KittyMo

- 1

(wgeurts)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dunnstral

- 1

(

Kittymo

)

Dongempire - 1

(gobbledygook)

Not Voting - 0

( )

Activity Check - Prodding Joan of Arc and wguerts

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

Vote Count

Auro - 4

(Cephrir, Hopkirk,

Espeonage

, Formerfish)

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook,

Dannflor

)

Formerfish - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Cephrir - 1

(Dongempire)

gobbledygook - 1

(Joan of Arc)

KittyMo

- 1

(wgeurts)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dunnstral

- 1

(Kittymo)

Not Voting - 1

(Auro)

Activity Check - Replacing Joan of Arc

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

Vote Count

Auro - 4

(Cephrir, Hopkirk,

Espeonage

, Formerfish)

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook,

Dannflor

)

Cephrir - 1

(Dongempire)

gobbledygook - 1

(Joan of Arc)

KittyMo

- 1

(CheekyTeeky)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dunnstral

- 1

(

Kittymo

)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro,

Dunnstral

)

Activity Check - Replacing Joan of Arc, prodding goobledygook

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-16 22:59:30)

Vote Count

northsidegal

- 3

(Cephrir,

Dannflor

, Hopkirk)

Auro - 2

(

Espeonage

, Formerfish)

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook, BBMolla)

Cephrir - 1

(Dongempire)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

Dunnstral

- 1

(

Kittymo

)

Formerfish - 1

(CheekyTeeky)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro,

Dunnstral

)

Activity Check - All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

northsidegal

- 3

(Cephrir, Hopkirk,

Kittymo

)

Auro - 2

(

Espeonage

, Formerfish)

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook, BBMolla)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

BBMolla - 1

(CheekyTeeky)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Espeonage

- 1

(

Dannflor

)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro, Dongempire)

Activity Check - All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

northsidegal

- 3

(Cephrir, Hopkirk,

Kittymo

)

Auro - 2

(

Espeonage

, Formerfish)

Dongempire - 2

(gobbledygook, BBMolla)

wguerts - 1

(

northsidegal

)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Espeonage

- 1

(

Dannflor

)

Formerfish - 1

(CheekyTeeky)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro, Dongempire)

Activity Check - Prodding northsidegal

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

Formerfish - 5

(CheekyTeeky, BBMolla, gobbledygook,

northsidegal

,

Dannflor

)

northsidegal

- 2

(

Kittymo

, Cephrir)

Dunnstral

- 2

(

Espeonage

, Hopkirk)

Auro - 1

(Formerfish)

gobbledygook - 1

(

Dunnstral

)

Not Voting - 2

(Auro, Dongempire)

Activity Check - Penguin posting votecounts

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

northsidegal

- 5

(

Kittymo

, Cephrir,

Dunnstral

, Formerfish, gobbledygook)

Formerfish - 4

(BBMolla,

northsidegal

,

Dannflor

,

Espeonage

)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 3

(Auro, CheekyTeeky, Dongempire)

Activity Check - All Good!

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

Vote Count

northsidegal

- 7

(

Kittymo

,

Dunnstral

, gobbledygook, BBMolla,

Dannflor

, Cephrir, Dongempire)

Formerfish - 2

(

northsidegal

,

Espeonage

)

BBMolla - 2

(CheekyTeeky, Formerfish)

gobbledygook - 1

(Hopkirk)

Not Voting - 1

(Auro)

Activity Check - Lynch at #1460

Deadline: (expired on 2020-01-17 22:59:30)

this is for ankamius

you can snark cephrir

[Dannflor]

guys Cephrir just sat on nsg for most of D1

his play is not scum

can we collectively agree to just lock him town

[Dannflor]

Lack of presence is more a townread for him IMO, he's too chill to be scum.

Is this referring to Hopkirk?

[Dannflor]

that sounds like a lot

take care of yourself <3