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[Frogsterking]

Who am I missing? Who are the clowns who decided to run up obvtown!frog?

[Frogsterking]

I dunno my heart is really not in fireisred, I think he's genuine and I think he's right about frog

it feels like a lot of stuff people are clearing Frog on amounts to singular Gamma posts and reasoning that "he wouldn't group his buddies this way" or something similar. And those types of points are far less substantial reason to think he's town than it's being credited. Whereas I feel fireisred has a lot more believable trajectories and doesn't feel like he's enacting an agenda with them. I know I've gotten pushback but it just feels bizarre to me that fireisred would write several posts of a giant ass solve & case on me (7651, 7652, 7653, and 7657) and then just immediately drop it when CSF gets CC'd. if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I don't sense any kind of contingency plan for if CSF dies, I feel like actually fully reversing on his scumread on me when there was an unexpected buddy going down just isn't necessary and is kinda bad play when he's scum, it's ceding ground exactly when he needs ground. the biggest benefit would be if he did it with intent to exactly pocket me like this, but then I don't feel like he's appealing to me to save him now either

Uhhh.


Oh shit.

This one wins.

You win Guilty Lion. You have the most insane wacked out frog case. How did you do it? Holy shit.

This isn't even all of it is it, GL?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Frogsterking

this one

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Frogsterking

this one

That's just a naked vote

[Frogsterking]

Eh ok, I've been reevaluating on Frog myself and it really does slot a few things into place that weren't making sense for me (POE pool too narrow, finding scum on the Tweet Yeet). I kept wanting fire to be that scum for me but never felt like it made sense really and Frog being scum, especially based on his associatives, makes a lot of sense.

(assuming my read on Dease was tinfoil.)

Frog can you explain when and why your Deas read shifted, you were scumreading him on/off a lot yesterday

yeah

I think rereading this part of the game, Frog's vote on Tweet is the worst

the only other thing I wanted to call out, if we're in late game and I'm dead and gone and we're still trying to find last scum, I want this noted:

But also I think tweet is probably scum

so vote there?

so vote there?

I think I am already

the snap questioning by Nero, I could easily see it being town, but I could also see it being scum trying to bus and score points without need/incentive to properly sort DV. so something for future reference

@fire I don't think you should put a ton of stock of shifting momentum after Gamma replaced out cause, it could have been a planned bus as soon as Tweet saw the red role PM and didn't have the WIM, and I also think with vigs in play scum need enough towncred to not be a vig shot
I still wanna read a lot more but the appealing worldview to me is Mena > Frog >>>> (if game continues) Nero

VOTE: Frogsterking

H-O-L-Y S-H-I-T

Rolling Mason is such a negative utility because it makes guys play like total brick heads

have fun winning D9 or whatever when you FINALLY kill all the scum

Thank goodness Menalque got fucking shot and Gamma exited so you guys stopped hard defending scum

Frog, have you ever self-voted as town before?

I dunno my heart is really not in fireisred, I think he's genuine and I think he's right about frog

it feels like a lot of stuff people are clearing Frog on amounts to singular Gamma posts and reasoning that "he wouldn't group his buddies this way" or something similar. And those types of points are far less substantial reason to think he's town than it's being credited. Whereas I feel fireisred has a lot more believable trajectories and doesn't feel like he's enacting an agenda with them. I know I've gotten pushback but it just feels bizarre to me that fireisred would write several posts of a giant ass solve & case on me (7651, 7652, 7653, and 7657) and then just immediately drop it when CSF gets CC'd. if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I don't sense any kind of contingency plan for if CSF dies, I feel like actually fully reversing on his scumread on me when there was an unexpected buddy going down just isn't necessary and is kinda bad play when he's scum, it's ceding ground exactly when he needs ground. the biggest benefit would be if he did it with intent to exactly pocket me like this, but then I don't feel like he's appealing to me to save him now either

VOTE: Frogsterking

H-O-L-Y S-H-I-T

Rolling Mason is such a negative utility because it makes guys play like total brick heads

have fun winning D9 or whatever when you FINALLY kill all the scum

Thank goodness Menalque got fucking shot and Gamma exited so you guys stopped hard defending scum

Frog, have you ever self-voted as town before?

@Frog - This was a serious question, can you link me a time you've self-voted as town?

The responses to me in 8082 and 8083 actually give me the impression of real thought behind his read on me and I think that if scum-Frogster had successfully fabricated that sort of thought process, then he would have just come out with it straight away instead of the initial 8078

I think this is maybe the best point in Frog's defense, but I don't put a ton of stock into it because ultimately Frog is giving reasons for a townread in 8082 and 8083 and it's not always difficult to fake real-sounding thought processes for fictional townreads as scum, cause you know everybody's town

actually @Frog nvm I just went back and checked and I had forgotten you self-voted in KTANE. Which was maybe a slightly different situation since you knew you had just done an extremely anti-town play, but I guess does give a basic precedent to being willing to sac yourself under fire.

still, I'm having a hard time understanding why you had the reaction you did. Why did Datisi suspecting you cause you a reactive response like that?

Directly communicating with CSF in-thread about whether to just let Morning Tweet die or go for my elim instead just feels way too.... blatantly like a scum PT conversation for it to be carried out in thread like that? Especially since if it was CSF + Frog as scum with Tweet there, there was very little evidence actual townies wanting my death over Tweet's at that point.

Also I just went back and reread this part of the game

the thing that makes it scummy in my mind is like - I don't have a strong recollection of Frog pushing Gamma when Gamma was around. I'll go back and do some homework after this post, but IIRC Frog wasn't pushing Gamma at all until Tweet came in. Now, suddenly, he's writing up a case on Gamma? If he was aware of these points before why was he not addressing them before when he wasn't voting Gamma? I kinda feel like it may have been an effort to make sure he has a nice justification for his Tweet scumread+vote left over there in ISO for if anyone goes looking later

The problem with Gamma is that they're in a similar category as HEM, they're Towned by IIRC scamper and also by Ari posthumously.

could this not be scum grabbing for towncred for his buddies using the voice of Real Townies? If Frog is town it's unlucky that he had a position of "well I scumread their play but conf town thinks they were town" on not one but two mafias

D2 tilt wagon?

what is a tilt wagon?

HEM

what is a tilt wagon?

When the towncore goes on tilt and throws away the D2 kill.

Frog blatantly defending HEM here

I know sometimes town is Loud and Wrong about townreads on scum, but this super confident townread really only sprung up in response to HEM being wagoned. Initially Frog was suggesting he'd be ok with the wagon (before it actually happened)

I think HEM is fair game today because none of the 5 slots I'm sheeping for proxy Town reads (ydrasse, scamper, Ausuka, Dats, Nero) town read HEM unless Nero does.

VOTE: Frogsterking

HOLY SHIT. THIS IS THE TOP TIER CRAZIEST SHITTIEST FROG!SCUM CASE. THIS IS PURE ABSTRACT ART.

[Dannflor]

oh so maybe that is a case made by scum?

[Frogsterking]

wow I think that's the towniest post frogster has made all game

wow I think that's the towniest post frogster has made all game

why

I was being mildly hyperbolic but I was feeling town vibes from both Shea and Frogster that page for engaging with each other and continuing to try to find more real time reasons for reads

I feel as scum in a game of this size it's very easy to just pick stuff out from the game that looks bad or good to form reads on people, but both slots were showing interest in like real time sorting which I think is a little more pro town this late in the game. and I think it is especially impressive/surprising from frogster who seemed like he had been locked into his reads for the past two day phases.

maybe I'm being too easily impressed by frogster idk

lmao right after that i talked him into a hem townread oops yea flip me

I will be honest and I feel a little sick saying this because I would hate if I just had a bad game and this was applied to me, but some of my suspicion towards you is simply burden of proficiency

you were also pretty consistently against the obscure wagon

I will try to reset and relook at Frog for you

VOTE: Dannflor if scamper has been protecting you because you guys are in a hood/masons then you can hardclaim.

Spoiler:

VOTE: something_smart

idk i don't really believe obscure is scum but whatever

would also just vote DV if anyone wants to do that

VOTE: deasvail

VOTE: tweet

not really opposed to an obscure wagon either but

VOTE: S_S

was kinda waiting for mena to come back and talk but ig maybe it doesn't matter. sure

VOTE: mena

VOTE: ss

VOTE: mena

VOTE: SS

also feel free to blame me if its ss town mena scum, i kept campaigning for ss lim over mena

one thing I'll say, fire's trajectory on flipped slots late D2 and D3 does not make it seem like he is informed of anyone's alignment. especially the later flips, posts #6414 - 7073 all come in kinda quick succession and honestly at that point I think any scum who sees their partner probably doomed in a situation like that vote parks their partner. or maybe they vote park the competing wagon. this whole swap back and forth thing is really unintuitive imo.

like... I suspected fire off of memory that he had a lot of pushes onto town while simultaneously soft-defending town. Which, the above kinda confirms yes. but the above doesn't really look like he's trying to keep obscure/menalque alive. nor does it look like he's trying to convincingly bus! it feels like town waffling idk

frogster's whole thing is revisionist history

like ragging on masons for allowing SS wagon to happen while he was actively campaigning for SS throughout that day phase as I look at it

frogster can you vote yourself again for a minute

I don't know looking back especially at the tweet > S_S > Mena wagons I feel like a lot of the stuff I was hard on fire for in my head applies to frogster worse in the end

like frogster hard hard defends scum so many times and then backs off as soon as he needs to

it is so much more agend-y

I'm considering hammering myself. If I do then I want to make a tier list of who posted the weirdest shittiest frog case.

ill make it easy by not posting a case

VOTE: frogster

idk this is what I was feeling at the start of day and I feel like this far in the game I am prone to overthinking and should just stick with my instincts

if it's not frogster my other idea is just that Titus is a serial killer lmao

it's the only thing that makes it make sense to me why nero cain wouldn't just kill scum but lol

trapped in my own mind is pretty accurate

also I will admit all of gammas interactions towards fire do read like pocketing versus buddy interactions

*especially* for gamma

Baltar has the most awkward interactions with frogster out of everyone here ok im done i said i wasn't going to case

if titus is scum tho i dunno how she wins here so I guess it's not something I'm particularly worried about beyond like

I will hate everything about this game if it turns out we cleared scum twice ina fucking row

Dannflor's case is extremely creative when some of the disparate elements are combined and presented together. It's not top tier but it's high tier, above fire's comparatively dry case and above Shea and scamper's "SEE-FROG-FOS-FROG" approach, but ranking below GL's monument to creativity. Dannflor's scum!frog case is of the "this isn't a scum!frog case" variety.

[Frogsterking]

Right now I'm working with

Most bizarre scum!frog case tier list

Top Tier:
GL 8408

High tier:
Dannflor 8406

Mid tier:
Shea 8382
scamper 8399

Low tier:
Fireisred 8395

Cases are ranked by their strangeness rather than how convincing they are because none of them are good.

[Frogsterking]

Right now I'm working with

Most bizarre scum!frog case tier list

Top Tier:
GL 8404

High tier:
Dannflor 8406

Mid tier:
Shea 8382
scamper 8399

Low tier:
Fireisred 8395

Cases are ranked by their strangeness rather than how convincing they are because none of them are good.
__

EBWOP

[Frogsterking]

oh so maybe that is a case made by scum?

I don't know. I'm guessing fire still because it's really long and boring and it was posted all at once. I think fire is the only one who seems aware of how ridiculous it is to case obvtown!frog as scum. I don't get the sense they believe in their scum!frog case.

[Frogsterking]

Right now I'm working with

Most bizarre scum!frog case tier list

Top Tier:
GL 8404

High tier:
Dannflor 8406

Mid tier:
Shea 8382
scamper 8399

Low tier:
Fireisred 8395

Cases are ranked by their strangeness rather than how convincing they are because none of them are good.
__

EBWOP

__

EBWOP: LINK to 8404 ALREADY

AAARGRGG *bites chunk out of nearby pillow and spits it out*

[Frogsterking]

PSA

The only thing that keeps it from being very low tier is that the amount of effort which went into writing such drivel is crazy in and of itself.

Fireisred's case has now been moved to very low tier because on closer inspection I realized it probably didn't take much effort to write at all.

[DeasVail]

Did frog get hammered?

[Frogsterking]

Did frog get hammered?

I can't tell if they were messing with me or not.

[Frogsterking]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Probably.

[Frogsterking]

Let me show you clowns how to throw together a scum case at the last minute:

Despite being able to completely rationalize a Townread on Dease (8082,8083) I have to say Dease just continues to ping me hard as scum for yet another day phase.

Also Obscure played a pretty solid scumgame

Why?

Frogster, earlier in the game you were going on about how I’ve often been the “deepwolf” in scum games I’ve played and that seemed to be a big part of your suspicion on me. Why are you not concerned about me atm?

Scummy. Setting up for endgame.

Frogster, earlier in the game you were going on about how I’ve often been the “deepwolf” in scum games I’ve played and that seemed to be a big part of your suspicion on me. Why are you not concerned about me atm?

I got better at playing forum mafia since this game started. I can elaborate more if you want me too.

Elaboration would probably be helpful because I’m not sure who is scum from here and you’re one of the possibilities

Thanks Frog

Pocketing me + now prefers to keep me for endgame because I won't vote him.

I’m thinking between Fire and Shea atm

Hedging.

am i dumb for thinking gl is townie for posting around page 215?

like, i think at that point tweet has probably said "uh oh guys i'm gonna die" in the scum pt and like, i struggle seeing scum!gl then go and write big cases on obscure

if it really was that tweetie replaced in and said "uh oh guys i'm going to die" and scum-guiltylion was like "l know!! i will start writing a case on obscure!!" i am going to scream

Yeah I don’t think so

Vibing with the Mason.

I’m also vt

Doesn't line up with my pings I'm getting from Dease this game.

I will have my thoughts up later today.

Perfectionism; scum tell, doesn't fit with Dease personality.

Looking over the options, I had excluded all except Frogsterking, Shea and fireisredsir as elimination possibilities for today. If anyone needs my reasoning on any of the exclusions, then I'm happy to provide, but it seems fairly consensus.

I had initially considered Frogsterking, but have decided that in my opinion he is not super likely to be scum. 5479 through 5520 is just such a strange progression from scum. Directly communicating with CSF in-thread about whether to just let Morning Tweet die or go for my elim instead just feels way too.... blatantly like a scum PT conversation for it to be carried out in thread like that? Especially since if it was CSF + Frog as scum with Tweet there, there was very little evidence actual townies wanting my death over Tweet's at that point.
I still think that Frogster's interpretation of my earlier scumread on him as "vindictive" is more likely to come from town, and it felt weirdly personal in a way that seemed a lot more intense and less dilute than the game I've played with Frogster-scum.
The responses to me in 8082 and 8083 actually give me the impression of real thought behind his read on me and I think that if scum-Frogster had successfully fabricated that sort of thought process, then he would have just come out with it straight away instead of the initial 8078

Shea remains a very real possibility as scum. My earlier strong townread from 3333 has definitely faded with time due to... I suppose.... less of an impression of Shea needing to have impact on the game and more an impression of Shea complaining about scumreading the scum but not being listened to, which I consider to be less unlikely to be tried as a scum tactic. But the play and the progression still all feels a bit too messy for scum. I think there would be less foot-in-mouth moments as scum. If Shea is scum they've done a pretty good job of appearing uninformed, but I think his play indicates that Shea is, most likely, not informed.

I have come to the opinion that fire is scum. Today I've kept coming around to the feeling that the push on me Day 2 was disingenuous, and the progression from cautiously townreading me to me being probscum (and also possibly scum with gamma) to then being off the table, felt more like scum trying to make a push and then abruptly backing off when it didn't work. It also felt more cautious than Frogster's later blatant attempts to get a wagon on me instead of Tweet, which I think fire as scum would have made sure to avoid. I don't think there's that much suspicious about fire honestly, but there is not at all that much reason to clear fire as town, and their play overall makes the most sense as scum, so I think that's where I want to go today.

This post is more general vibes than specific points due to having less time than I had anticipated. If needed I may go into more detail on my fire read, but I'm expecting that'll be the popular opinion in the end anyway.

White knighting + trying to set up for end game.

redfire what are your reads rn?

prob most interested in looking for scum in dann, shea, SS, marci rn. a slight level below that would be xofelf and gamma

strongest TRs on ausuka, scamper, you. not quite as strong on datisi, hem, obscure, ydra, frog. then DV and GL are kinda weak townleans ig

i think thats everyone

okay this is funny
our strongest TRs line up but aside from that there's notable variance
I think I'll pencil in fire as town for this

right now I think this post is like one of the strongest points for fire!town

I know Ausuka disagrees

but it seems just like SO BAD. aren't you going to be more careful about town reading a buddy?

but this might be gamma specific so I'm going through Gamma's scum games to see if I can find a similar type of read on a buddy

I agree, but like you I'm at the point where I can think of reasons for townreading everyone, and I just think the stuff supporting fire-town is the least clearing.

Hedging, also a scum tell by not having enough scumreads. There's an absence of Townie paranoia which seems to indicate an informed perspective.

Also I think I’m ready to vote fire? But that would be l-1 so if anyone has things they want to look at more let me know. I do see that Dann is planning to re-look at frog

This just seems really pointless and timid.

Also shea is your uncertainty on fire enough to unvote or not really?

Also shea is your uncertainty on fire enough to unvote or not really?

I don't really have a better idea.

Fair

Vibing with Shea and checking in with where Shea's head is at in order to prepare for endgame.

Did frog get hammered?

Very generically scummy.

If Dease were TPR that could explain my pings, but Dease claimed VT. I think the last scum is Dease maybe because they avoided getting their hands dirty with this God awful frog wagon. Aside from fire who was a hot, silly mess D5 it feels like scum are probably off wagon which means most likely Dease IMO.

You guys really do suck at getting reads in this gamestate so I recommend closing your eyes and randomly picking between fireisred and dease until the game is over.

Like this:

*Closes eyes*

VOTE: Dease

[Frogsterking]

I'm considering hammering myself. If I do then I want to make a tier list of who posted the weirdest shittiest frog case.

ill make it easy by not posting a case

VOTE: frogster

...or just kill this stinker.

~Frog out

[Datisi]

The problem with Gamma is that they're in a similar category as HEM, they're Towned by IIRC scamper and also by Ari posthumously.

could this not be scum grabbing for towncred for his buddies using the voice of Real Townies? If Frog is town it's unlucky that he had a position of "well I scumread their play but conf town thinks they were town" on not one but two mafias

frog, can you show me an example of where town-you cared to build a townblock / what dead town is thinking as hard as you did this game? i don't remember that being an aspect of your play in bunnies, but i could be forgetting

[Datisi]

if I'm wrong I'm wrong, but I don't sense any kind of contingency plan for if CSF dies, I feel like actually fully reversing on his scumread on me when there was an

unexpected

buddy going down just isn't necessary and is kinda bad play when he's scum

that's another thing though... csf going down was not unexpected. by that point, they knew that there is a non-marci vig in town, and that csf was claiming their shots.

and it doesn't seem like fire tried to urgently push you out before that either.

pain.

[Datisi]

also I will admit all of gammas interactions towards fire do read like pocketing versus buddy interactions

*especially* for gamma

Baltar has the most awkward interactions with frogster out of everyone here ok im done i said i wasn't going to case

no no please continue i wanna hear more about this

[Datisi]

if titus is scum tho i dunno how she wins here so I guess it's not something I'm particularly worried about beyond like

I will hate everything about this game if it turns out we cleared scum twice ina fucking row

titus can survive one more day with me getting shot, maybe

after that, it goes straight to "titus why are you alive"

maybe not even that, if she doesn't have a full bp as sk, maybe groupscum kills her before us

in either case, feels like a "cross this bridge when we get there" type of thing

[Datisi]

obvtown!frog

are you really obvtown if the entire game suspects you :thonk:

[Datisi]

that said, i am fine with there being a massclaim:

frogs
shea
fire
ausuka
deas
dann
guilty
then maybe titus, i'll decide after everyone else claims

reposting this for wherever we left off

everyone but titus has claimed vt, yes?

also, if frogs is scum here, gotta say he has absolutely NAILED his town-tone. like, deadass, 10/10.

[Datisi]

I'm going to steamroll you into the dirt scum!tisi, I want to have your skull embedded in my throne.

damn, this was a good quote

anyway

i went to check frogs's behaviour in bunnies when he was getting pushed, and hm. in that game, his behaviour was much more centered around "x y and z are scum! this is why they are scum! please listen to me you fucking idiots!" while his behaviour here is more like "these cases of me are utter shit! you're town but i am gonna be spending so much time making fun of the cases against me!"

do i have strong conclusions here? not exactly. sample size 1 etc etc. but i wanna see frogs answer my q in 8417.

[Ausuka]

ngl, dannflor feels kind of townie to me on this past page,

but

i opened up the ISO of the slot before them (which was Eira apparently?) - before subbing in, just when i thought i may sub into that person - it was the only one i looked at - and i thought they were scummy so i'm a bit hesitant there.

okay starting to read the game, Post#4 (question: is there a way to link these?) i feel like is believable from fire.. i'm reading them as like the opposite of me, which, i have friends in my group irl who are like this and so i can see it as legitimate. i'm liking the energy of some people in early game, but there's sort of a bar/standard to weigh in "is this happy energy because they like being town like me" or not - so, i don't fully feel like i can regard it with a ton of weight.

i'm getting town feelings from Post#108 from scamper, because i feel like mafia doesn't have "gut feelings" obviously, as they know the answers, so someone saying they have a gut feeling must be either inherently townie or mafia pretending to be townie. this post makes me feel like scamper isn't mafia pretending to be townie specifically because it's not just a post on a gut feeling, it's a second conclusion from that gut in a way that makes me feel like the gut feeling was real.

similarly i'm really liking how humaneatingmonkey is getting into the game right away on P#116 by thinking of the game as teams and making associatives/connections as a whole - they seem solvey in an exploratory way.

Post#152 sounds a little manipulative/overly-knowledgeable to me from Ydresse - mostly because it's not framing something as a townie read, it's a direct "this is why you're town" that feels framed in an intentional way.

i've read 7 pages, i'm great =p my townreads so far are fire, scamper, humanmonkey. slight scumlean on ydresse, but not confident.

ok i mean obscure trying to townread fire and then walking it back with 'i don't fully feel like i can regard it with a ton of weight' feels awkward and partnery

but also rule of 3 says fire is town and i'm like, it's possible a new player goes for the townread on two partners but is it likely