House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[GuiltyLion]

I guess I should be fair and say 2/3 since mastina was a miss

[GuiltyLion]

Andres you can't die you're our rock as obvtown captain of the kingsguard

you dying in the scum!Shea world would be a throw

[GuiltyLion]

Char/Maria, Luke

Was townreading both of them before they flipped, sick zinger tho, you get a point.

Not gonna reply to the rest of your post since it seems like you're more interested in arguing than re-evaluating

[GuiltyLion]

Actually what is the point of that reply, Roden? If scum me was faking an inaccurate scumread on ChariaR, why did I swap my vote to Dwlee at a crucial juncture of D1??

[GuiltyLion]

so the fact that you're making such claims feels like... you are guessing what dwlee *should* be thinking, and claiming they're going against that, and i don't see evidence for what made you think that.

Datisi, I don't follow you on the Luke/Dwlee TMI point, specifically I think this claim is where the breakdown is. It's not hard for me to imagine Lukewarm seeing himself as the same level scumread for Dwlee as you based on these posts:

HURT: Lukewarm

Yeah yeah,I read the post, and I can't find the seven days thing

Did someone ask this is the scum pt and you forgot?

I want to say that this is town, because what scum is going to fake this argument

I don't think this is legit

Uh not datisi or lukewarm I got bad vibes when I was here before

hi dwlee why do you have bad vibes from me and lukewarm

You contradicted yourself on a townread on someone else by not townreading me, and I didn't agree with lukewarm calling junko town for making a silly argument

like yes Dwlee never explicitly said "My two (2) biggest scumreads are both Lukewarm and Datisi, at equal strength", but I don't think it's unreasonable for Luke to see how Dwlee has repeatedly scumread/shaded him alongside you and conclude that you're both Dwlee's main scumreads. And then I don't think it's weird for Luke to point out that Dwlee hasn't really mentioned Luke since, it's kinda just a sub-point of your larger point that Dwlee isn't really demonstrating any serious intent to solve.

so I agree with you Dwlee's play is still dodgy here fwiw I just don't see the Luke-Dwlee associative and I think you're kinda tunnel vision there.

@unwnd, am I right in understanding the point of your 1856 is that scum!Dwlee would be leaning harder into their personality/emotions/'quirk' to defuse pressure on themselves, and the fact that they're not doing that is 1) genuine and 2) not-survivalist, therefore town? How many games have you played/specced with Dwlee as scum that gave you this impression? I can see where you're coming from in that maybe Dwlee's play here isn't

scummy

, but I still feel a vortex of a complete absence of towniness from their play/reads, and still think that makes them a good lim since if they continue engaging at this shallow level I'm never gonna be comfortable letting them get close to endgame. and I've definitely had games with town!Dwlee before where I got townvibes and did not feel this way

Also in what universe does scum!GL with scum!Dwlee who wants to push town!Luke, write this post and then NK Luke??

[GuiltyLion]

You wanted Drap dead early on, and you've shaded and discredited Andres at different points.

Actually also wanted to call out this is just a blatant falsehood, at no point have I wanted Drapion dead or shaded Andres. Like if you think this you're reading a different game than the one we're playing

[GuiltyLion]

I think town!you should be a bit more open to re-evaluation when so many of your scum reads/suspected slots died early and flipped town.

Can you explain the issue here?

But my point (that you've completely missed) is that I

had already re-evaluated

on those slots and was no longer scumreading them by the time they flipped town, and this is clear in my ISO if you are reading it honestly and assessing me with an open mind. The joke/point behind my 2/3 comment was referring to slots that I actively currently seriously wanted to see flipped, Luke & ChariaR do not fall under that category because I

had them as town and no longer wanted them flipped

.

Throughout your time in this game you've framed my Luke scumread as this permanent thing I stuck with all game, when I very clearly worked my way to town Luke by the EOD1. It might not be quite as obvious to you because some of it happened in the supporter PT, but it feels like you're ignoring or missing this point completely in your campaign to paint me scummy for my read & interactions with Luke. so which is it.

[GuiltyLion]

for the second half of your post.... are you serous?

having Drapion in a null tier of slots I would lim is a far cry from "wanting him dead". That single reads post is not "wanting Drapion dead". At no point did I vote Drapion, at no point did I case Drapion, as soon as Drapion started posting & engaging more (because he hadn't played the game at all at the time of my readslist post), I sorted him town. It's a huge misreppy reach to see that single reads post and call that me "wanting Drapion dead".

and neither of those posts are discrediting or shading Andres? 1778 is a genuine attempt to engage with Andres, those questions are for me to understand him better and it actually did become clear from his reply that he missed the Andante post I was making fun of, thus clearing up a misconception. The second post, what are you even talking about? are you understanding that post correctly? My point in that post was I saw Andres waffling on his read on me and considering eliminating me, that's not shade or discredit at all, that's exactly why I felt like my lim was likely to happen, because I think Andres is town and was being swayed to vote me.

I'm seriously having a hard time thinking you actually believe your argument here, because it feels like a hugely intentional misrepresentation. Your initial claim that I was scumreading/OMGUSing these slots because they suspected me. Nothing in those posts is me scumreading/OMGUSing those slots, and the posts you quoted as "evidence" are all either a) not me suspecting them at all (1778, 2716), and/or b) from before they indicated any suspicion on me (1085 with Drapion as a null slot, 1778). And the whole thing is disregarding a mountain of context of me actively townreading those players throughout the entirety of my ISO.

are you serious here?

[GuiltyLion]

All of that and then bragging for the past few days that you can totally prove my meta assessment of you wrong, and then backing out when I tell you what my meta assessment is, just doesn't come from town IMO. I don't see what you have to lose by linking the kinds of games I'm looking for, I told you multiple times now that I'm open to re-evaluation, and even if you think I'd just tunnel you anyway I don't see how that's a particularly bad thing? If your linked games prove my claims wrong then people will just see it; it's not like I'll be able to form a mob to vote you out either way, but it'll be obvious that I'm not actually open to re-evaluating you if people see that your games blatantly contradict my assessment and I still continue to claim I'm right anyway.

alright, this was the post I was waiting to see if you'd make, bet. I didn't want to do it because I don't think you've been very clear on what it is you think is not characteristic of my townplay beyond "AtE" and "scumreading your whole wagon" (which I didn't do this game, so already kind of a difficult criteria), but I am pretty sure if I spend an hour or so today I can at least dig up some similar instances of times of me getting angry that I'm being cased/voted for bullshit and yelling at people about my reads because I think I'm about to die and be ignored. And for a fun bonus I'll grab some times I've color coded in similar ways before too.

it is going to take me some time though so after I do this you better drop your push on me entirely and start actually pushing scum, or else I'm gonna just vote park you after we get Johnny flipped

[GuiltyLion]

Aite y'all, it's time for the

GL Post on Why Roden's Assessment Of His Town Meta is Bad, Actually

to be helpful I have broken this down into three distinct sections. Posts where I am angry about being voted and snarky and salty in return (sec 1), posts where I am talking about how I scumread people voting me or emoting at people to sheep my reads after I'm flipped (sec 2), and posts where I am Color Coding Things Because It Is Cool, Impactful, and Fun and Absolutely Not Alignment Indicative (sec 3). I hope you'll also forgive me that some of these examples date back years, it is hard to find perfectly analogous posts in every game and I've only played one game at a time for the better part of 1-2 years now

Section 1 - General Salt/Frustration At Being Scumread For Stupid Reasons

Diffusion of Power
me getting riled up in response to implosion voting me
next post a literal OMGUS
I then continue to go on and on and on

Holiday Dance Party
got a ton of blowback/suspicion for this post where I was ~ reactive ~ to LLD casing me
not sure if it's a perfect fit for this section, but hey, it's me calling a town stupid if they don't listen to me on my townreads!

Section 2 - Scumreading Votes On Me, and/or Demanding that I'm sheeped if I'm limmed

This section was hard to find perfect examples I didn't already include in the first section, because it is rare that I go straight into an OMGUS. But then again, I didn't actually do that this game either, as has already been exhaustively covered in my prior back and forth with Roden.

City that Never Sleeps
This is not a perfect example, but I think it is interesting - me saying I'm 'fussy' about scumreads on me as town

Guns & Roses 3
another example of me making the case that I'm a lot more reactive and sensitive to votes on me as

town

than as scum

Newbie 1965
I like this one "This may be self-centered but it's also honestly kinda impossible for me to grok how someone could look at the body of work and content I've produced this game in contrast to Titus and come away thinking I'm more likely to be scum. Like to the point where it almost singlehandedly makes me scumread you."
from the same game, "Rise, if you vote GBJ at any point this game I am going to be salty with you postgame. Warning you now "
even better, I am sure this post (click me!!) should qualify as "AtE" much in exact same vein, if not more extreme, as my "AtE" this game.

Section 3 - Color Coding Things Because It Is Cool, Impactful, and Fun and Absolutely Not Alignment Indicative

mmm look at me using nice and fancy red font
hey, another post with big fancy red font
ooh, busting out the green for this one
green font for emphasis

BONUS EXTRA FUN SECTION ON LUKEWARM

So I was rereading Shakespeare and I found a post where I called Luke out for feeling "surface-level", damn it's almost kinda... exactly like my exact same problem with him this game.

And look, I found another post from another game where Luke and I clashed as T/T and I called him surface-level. it's actually kinda funny how this has happened in three games now.

(sorry Luke I promise to get you right the next time we're T-T together)

I'm gonna stop here because it's late and I'm tired and I don't actually have quite as many examples yet from the first page or so of my completed games, it is hard because roughly half my games I don't get significantly cased/suspected at all so these situations don't come up. I am willing to continue this exercise going back further in my history if Roden is still not convinced but otherwise I am hopeful that this is at least enough of a few data points to get him to realize I am perfectly capable of being salty and reactive to votes and wagons on me as town, yelling at people to sheep me when I'm dead, and I also have posts describing my own town game saying explicitly as much, and that yes, I sometimes color code my posts.

[GuiltyLion]

Aite y'all, it's time for the

GL Post on Why Roden's Assessment Of His Town Meta is Bad, Actually

to be helpful I have broken this down into three distinct sections. Posts where I am angry about being voted and snarky and salty in return (sec 1), posts where I am talking about how I scumread people voting me or emoting at people to sheep my reads after I'm flipped (sec 2), and posts where I am Color Coding Things Because It Is Cool, Impactful, and Fun and Absolutely Not Alignment Indicative (sec 3). I hope you'll also forgive me that some of these examples date back years, it is hard to find perfectly analogous posts in every game and I've only played one game at a time for the better part of 1-2 years now

Section 1 - General Salt/Frustration At Being Scumread For Stupid Reasons

Diffusion of Power
me getting riled up in response to implosion voting me
next post a literal OMGUS
I then continue to go on and on and on

Holiday Dance Party
got a ton of blowback/suspicion for this post where I was ~ reactive ~ to LLD casing me
not sure if it's a perfect fit for this section, but hey, it's me calling a town stupid if they don't listen to me on my townreads!

Section 2 - Scumreading Votes On Me, and/or Demanding that I'm sheeped if I'm limmed

This section was hard to find perfect examples I didn't already include in the first section, because it is rare that I go straight into an OMGUS. But then again, I didn't actually do that this game either, as has already been exhaustively covered in my prior back and forth with Roden.

City that Never Sleeps
This is not a perfect example, but I think it is interesting - me saying I'm 'fussy' about scumreads on me as town

Guns & Roses 3
another example of me making the case that I'm a lot more reactive and sensitive to votes on me as

town

than as scum

Newbie 1965
I like this one "This may be self-centered but it's also honestly kinda impossible for me to grok how someone could look at the body of work and content I've produced this game in contrast to Titus and come away thinking I'm more likely to be scum. Like to the point where it almost singlehandedly makes me scumread you."
from the same game, "Rise, if you vote GBJ at any point this game I am going to be salty with you postgame. Warning you now "
even better, I am sure this post (click me!!) should qualify as "AtE" much in exact same vein, if not more extreme, as my "AtE" this game.

Section 3 - Color Coding Things Because It Is Cool, Impactful, and Fun and Absolutely Not Alignment Indicative

mmm look at me using nice and fancy red font
hey, another post with big fancy red font
ooh, busting out the green for this one
green font for emphasis

BONUS EXTRA FUN SECTION ON LUKEWARM

So I was rereading Shakespeare and I found a post where I called Luke out for feeling "surface-level", damn it's almost kinda... exactly like my exact same problem with him this game.

And look, I found another post from another game where Luke and I clashed as T/T and I called him surface-level. it's actually kinda funny how this has happened in three games now.

(sorry Luke I promise to get you right the next time we're T-T together)

I'm gonna stop here because it's late and I'm tired and I don't actually have quite as many examples yet from the first page or so of my completed games, it is hard because roughly half my games I don't get significantly cased/suspected at all so these situations don't come up. I am willing to continue this exercise going back further in my history if Roden is still not convinced but otherwise I am hopeful that this is at least enough of a few data points to get him to realize I am perfectly capable of being salty and reactive to votes and wagons on me as town, yelling at people to sheep me when I'm dead, and I also have posts describing my own town game saying explicitly as much, and that yes, I sometimes color code my posts.

[GuiltyLion]

Asked some questions to mod:
1. Prince can receive PRs.
2. Prince WILL keep them after becoming king.
3. It's not known if overthrowing monarchy and choosing new king will allow to hire new council members.
4. King can't give PRs to self.


So i dunno guys, i think we need to give Grand Maester to trustworthy Prince, so after king die we will get undying Doctor.

Of course we need trustworthy prince. VOTE: unwnd

look I know Shea says he doesn't trust Mastina's reads and I certainly think Mastina is scum!MVP so far this game, but is there really any mechanical argument against making Mastina Prince and dumping all the roles on her? Like how is that not just the best case scenario for town, mastina will eventually get her head out of her tunnels and find scum even if she has to burn/waste some eliminations on town to do it

[GuiltyLion]

I been skimming along but I need to work today so will respond to more later, wanted to jump in on that Dann post because that's easy to respond to without doing more rereading. I don't really get where all of the Junko support came from all of the sudden and want to spend time thinking about the votes there

I'm also maybe waffling on Lukewarm, I'm wondering if we just have major playstyle friction. I agree with everything TSQ just pointed out about his Titus read, it's the same issues I had with his LLD read, but I'm wondering if Luke kinda just... actually thinks like that? He had one post about how people read "confidence" into his reads that he doesn't feel is there which kinda resonated with me, it reminds me of similar issues I've had with Roden and S_S to a lesser degree, where I just chronically scumread the way they think about the game and what they decide to post and how they arrive at reads.

I saw VPB request that I do a reread of KTANE where I remember scumreading Luke, I'll try to do that as well as Shakespeare cause I feel like I vaguely remember Luke being Townie in Shakespeare. add it to the pile of meta homework

I was trying to find something in GL's ISO and saw this...what are you possibly referring to here? We only had two other games together and we were Masons in one of them.

viewtopic.php?t=88281&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Is this the game you're talking about??

yah. it's something about your writing/thinking style, it just doesn't jibe with me. little did I know that you would replace into this game and now I have to deal with Lukewarm v2 if you're actually town here and making garbage posts/arguments like 3310. Speaking of that, did you actually explicitly reply to my 3318, I would appreciate if you addressed that and clarified what exactly your argument is at it relates to the claims:
a) I scumread/OMGUS'd everyone who suspected me (3230)
b) when I challenged this assertion, your evidence/posts that you pulled up on Drapion and Andres slots does not apply because they are either not scumreads or not OMGUS

[GuiltyLion]

But basically it shows that GL voted off of Dwlee as an Enchant wagon was building and then when Maria wagon was building they also joined onto that and ended up causing Dwlee and Maria to be tied in votes.

you're not considering the context where Shea was making it clear he townread Dwlee, I was campaigning in the Supporter PT to lim Dwlee and getting no traction, so I started shopping for alternate wagons amongst other slots I didn't townread at a certain point because I felt the Dwlee wagon wasn't ultimately going to go anywhere.

You also are ignoring or forgetting 2294 where after MariaR replaces in and I find her town, I come

back

to Dwlee to advocate for limming them yet again another time.

[GuiltyLion]

I like Dann's re-entry into the game, especially his Titus read and overall theories and views. Makes me feel a lot better about him again.

[GuiltyLion]

that's the part i liked the least... you think titus is likely scum here?

I wouldn't say "likely" scum but I think she's a decent candidate for scum that I may be overlooking, and specifically more what I like about that read is less that I think it's necessarily 100% accurate but more that I think the process makes sense. Dann has a working Theory of the Game ("LLD was the scum pick for King") and then pulled out an interesting point on Titus 769 being a soft townread/push for LLD King with plausible deniability. Dann didn't call this out but if I'm running with that theory it's also interesting Rhae had

Titus

as her third pick for King in 1241, despite a fight between Titus and Rhae earlier in the game and Titus being one of Rhae's only main expressed scumreads (793, 969)

Mostly it just feels like a nuanced and novel take on the game that doesn't strike me as disingenuous or agenda-based, gives me the good solvey town!Dann feels

also, as an aside, this is not a super robust or strong meta point but I feel like my general meta vibe of Titus is that as town she is a lot more assertive and confrontational, prone to tunnels with frequent spots of moon logic. When she's scum she's more diplomatic and reserved, flying a bit more under the radar, and almost more reasonable than she is as town. Specifically I think games that give me this impression are HDP where she was town and relentlessly suspecting/pushing me the whole game, vs Situation Room where she was scum and chill, laid back, agreeable and I actually mistakenly townread her for that during most of the game until she got kind of POE'd out. Her play this game is starting to feel more and more like the latter to me.

[GuiltyLion]

Overall, I see two people who believe the other is scum. Right now I'm leaning on it being TvS but I digress

So that being said, what do you think of their stances? Even if there is still more to be desired. Do you believe they are being intentionally vague?

I don't think they're being intentionally vague, but I do feel like they're not seriously trying. I think my central issue is it feels like they had page 5 scumreads on Datisi/Luke/Dann and then haven't evolved them at all, nor given us any new ones that are demonstrably impacted by the past 60+ pages.

I think the towniest thing from this perspective is what I just said, the fact that their Lukewarm scumread seems to have slightly softened, the only scum!agenda I can see there is if they're trying not to piss off Lukewarm and bait him onto their wagon, but even then when Lukewarm indicated that he

didn't

like Dwlee's reaction/response, Dwlee still just kinda nonchalantly doubles down on it.

you're right overall, it's mostly that I desire a lot more from them more than I think these stances can't come from town

As I said, I think the situation is possibly TvS. I may be just paranoid(?) about datisi for no reason and Dwlee is just scum who doesn't give a fuck

quick point on unwnd associatives

this angle in particular, taking a TvS stance on a townie (Datisi) calling out a scum (Dwlee), is like super textbook scum distancing ploy. unwnd can fight against the Dwlee wagon by shading one of the main proponents, while leaving himself room to flip his read on Dwlee if/when Datisi is flipped and if he needs to start bussing to follow the winds of the town.

I find it's actually pretty rare that townies take a stance of "this dialogue between two players is TvS, but I'm not totally sure which is T and which is S". I don't think townies tend to think like that in practice whereas scum more often feel this looks like real solving. A townie is more likely to just... townread their T read and scumread their S read and not leave themselves wiggle room to 180 reverse those reads later. or, alternatively, if they truly feel ambivalent/uncertain about it, they're not gonna be thinking about it as a TvS scenario in the first place, they think it may still be TvT.

so yeah, this looks fake and like a scum angle to take

Given some of the hullaballoo about no real case/reason to scumread Johnny, I would like to highlight this post again as one of my major points against Johnny slot.

The tl;dr is that I think taking a stance of "this looks like TvS" while leaving yourself room to waffle or switch on which player is T and which player is S is more likely to be a scum artificial thought process than a genuine one. I don't often see Town make posts like that.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not going to let this andante point just get passed by though, can we talk more about this.

I have a thought about it but I think it'd be better to let Andante respond herself first, I will comment on it after she replies to your latest posts

[GuiltyLion]

I interpreted Andante as talking about Johnny's perspective - Johnny was calling it an apathy wagon, not necessarily that she agreed it was an apathy wagon.

yeah this is exactly what I was gonna say, I think Andante was arguing scum!Johnny doesn't refer to scumbuddy wagon as apathy wagon because it's TSTBS. I just didn't want to preemptively defend her on her behalf and I wanted to see whether she'd make the same point herself

[GuiltyLion]

rhae does not look aligned with dwlee in the non-supporters pt

can you elaborate/paraphrase why

this seems to be the biggest point in Johnny slot's defense and it's totally inaccessible to me. Mastina/Andante (I think?) both also made similar claims but I don't feel like I have an understanding of what she did in the non-supporter PT that seems obviously unaligned, and I need more detail than this to actually consider it seriously

[GuiltyLion]

oh wait no it was FB that also said that

[GuiltyLion]

who townreads furtive and why

I thought he felt fairly townie in responses to pressure from me & unwnd towards the EOD1, though me not liking unwnd's angles and attacks may have colored that read somewhat. I am open to reassessing cause it feels like he's been coasting a bit D2/D3 and a couple of his pop ins struck me as more focused on grabbing towncred than solving or pushing his scumreads (thinking of one in supporter PT in particular where I said Drapion town for unvoting MariaR and he jumped in to say 'me too!' on that).

can you elaborate a lil more on your Roden townread?

[GuiltyLion]

although idk, skimming furtive's ISO again I just don't really feel scum there

he's not super town but doesn't really feel particularly scummy to me and I def don't think unwnd/Johnny - furtive is S-S, and I've been locked in on the Johnny scumread

[GuiltyLion]

like dwlee first post if they were scum together and disagreed could have easily been reserved for scum PT talk.

isn't that type of thing usually great to have out in the open to look disaligned tho

its not that public....we can do wifom for days on this. I don't think this was staged.

on this, I'd keep in mind that it couldn't really be fully public in main thread PT by that point cause Rhaenyra was already out of posts

so if Dwlee/Rhae want to distance somewhere, the only real available option by that point is a PT that half the game is in

[GuiltyLion]

Who is around for chat

I'm here Derek what up

What are recent events?

Nothing much, just trying to make progress on the pokedex while checking thread

I'm almost at 300 on my dex nice

You're like a big wagon because this approach matches your scum game. I called it an apathy wagon and got some justifiable pushback.

Math is here and thinks I'm scum with Shea, which is untrue so it's hard to engage with the rest of his points without, like, major concentration

I'm always reactive.

I can't give you advice on engaging with math

Do you have like reads? Even like a vibe on somebody?

Off the top of my head:

Andante, TSQ, Firebringer, Unwnd slot town

Datisi, Dann scum

Is unwd even in this game?

Oh I'm unwnd now

Static from like 5 days ago when I last played the game? Did Johnny ask for an explanation?

Unwnd's approach to my wagon was townie and they were clearly solving for people's alignments with their reactions to people's posts (no I don't remember specifics)

this whole conversation also just feels fake

like,
-the fact that both of them are conveniently around to 'chat' and then both disappear for several hours after this after having a conversation that goes nowhere
-Johnny allegedly forgetting that he is unwnd
-Johnny referring to pushback on him as "justifiable" (so did he really believe it was an apathy wagon or no??)

I also kinda think Johnny's post/thought around "Math thinks I'm scum with Shea and that's untrue" is a super easy thing to riff on in a world where Shea is town so it

is

factually untrue, he doesn't have to lie about it

[GuiltyLion]

the fact that Dwlee refers to Johnny as "unwnd slot" in a conversation with the new current member of that slot is actually kinda wonky now that I'm paying attention to it

like why would he not just say Johnny, or your slot. why the weirdness there.

I don't know if I can comfortably nail that as AI but it's weird. why does Dwlee do that in the town!Johnny world. why would he not want to say "you" if his goal is to pocket/buddy Johnny. like it feels like Dwlee is more focused on retroactively selling unwnd's ISO as town, moreso than achieve a useful outcome in talking to a town!Johnny

[GuiltyLion]

the fact that Dwlee refers to Johnny as "unwnd slot" in a conversation with the new current member of that slot is actually kinda wonky now that I'm paying attention to it

like why would they not just say Johnny, or your slot. why the weirdness there.

I don't know if I can comfortably nail that as AI but it's weird. why does Dwlee do that in the town!Johnny world. why would they not want to say "you" if their goal is to pocket/buddy Johnny. like it feels like Dwlee is more focused on retroactively selling unwnd's ISO as town, moreso than achieve a useful outcome in talking to a town!Johnny

edit for correct pronouns, I am sorry

[GuiltyLion]

on the other hand, maybe Dwlee just genuinely forgot that Johnny is the new unwnd, in which case that should be clearing for Johnny

[GuiltyLion]

Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.

I think we are but with the Johnny wagon. If he's town he's a super easy lim at this point and if there's a scum deepwolf in GL/VPB like some believe, it'd be a good chance for a team with them to get a chance at Prince. So if we're in that world why does the thread seem stalled on a Johnny wagon? Why wouldn't scum vote him by now? He's not even been around to defend himself

[GuiltyLion]

I'm leaning town on UNOwen. When I was looking through my old games i took a glimpse at UNOwen ISO in Situation Room and people were mistakenly scumreading him for similar things as this game (asking questions that don't seem to lead anywhere, somewhat detached/aloof thread presence). I don't think it's alignment indicative for him and i don't think he's done anything this game overtly scummy, so I'm curious what the case on him is here

[GuiltyLion]

Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.

Also how do you know whether scum were hesitant to bus Dwlee?

[GuiltyLion]

Also I ask people.

I mentioned how Dwlee was a

Planned Buss

Does anyone disagree?
If you do, say you do, explain yourself and then I’ll explain how Dwlee knew he was gonna be executed day 2 without a doubt.
I mean C’mon the dude would have been voted out day 1 if it wasn’t for the king.

I think Dwlee knew they were going down on D2 because they almost went down on D1, obviously, but I don't think that means scum planned to bus them at the start of the game. I would look for people who artificially increased in confidence on Dwlee from D1 to D2

[GuiltyLion]

sorry for not being around this weekend - I've loosely followed along but I will try to fully catch up and do stuff today. I'd still like a Johnny lim, it's unfortunate that someone will have to replace into that slot and not be able to answer for either unwnd or Johnny's play. I think the only other wagon I'd be willing to switch for with no hesitation is Titus. Still not feeling UNOwen at all, maybe could be talked into furtiveglance with a more serious review of his content

@mastina I saw your giant post, I still think you're completely wrong, you basically just assume scum have far more control over a game than they actually do, but unless it will help you see me as town I don't really want to continue arguing it until you can take my words on good faith.

[GuiltyLion]

what's up gamers

let's get that cop result

i'd vote any of titus/furtive/firebringer/drapion

[GuiltyLion]

The Kingsguard have until 2 days, 0 hours, 12 minutes to vote for a New Lord Commander in their PT - plurality rules will apply at deadline if a majority is not reached.

also give feedack on this if you have opinions y'all

it's between VPB/GL/Titus/Dann

[GuiltyLion]

it's between VPB/GL/Titus/Dann

Jesus fucking Christ no wonder the scum killed Andres that is literally 2-4 scum and deadass could be the entirety of the scumteam.

Ok, let's say we're scum and we killed Andres so we could be kingsguard. Then we can use our new position to overthrow the King because now no one can stop us!!!! despite the fact that we could have simply done it with our scum majority in the Kingsguard literally the night before. Oh and also us overthrowing both a town!Shea and a cop cleared mastina would be tantamount to scumclaiming, which benefits this team, how?

Can you stop spinning literally everything to try to shade me?

[GuiltyLion]

I guess we're just pretending yesterday didn't happen

What does this mean

[GuiltyLion]

Yes, because she's the slot most likely to be town besides me. The fact that I disagree entirely with her reads doesn't change that fact

[GuiltyLion]

I don't care if she kills me if she's unkillable conftown

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah, having a conftown in an unkillable role, so dumb. Gosh how can I be sooooo stupid

[GuiltyLion]

An unkillable

doctor

, no less

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, so she vigs me and I flip green. Then what does scum do. She's still unkillable cop cleared doctor

[GuiltyLion]

Town don't need to live to win homie

[GuiltyLion]

Who is the core 4, i would assume from context you mean like GL/VPB/Datisi/?? but Datisi hasn't even posted yet

[GuiltyLion]

Also the nomination list is forced by Andres picks for the Kingsguard last night

[GuiltyLion]

He didn't say anything about tracking.

Mastina I genuinely forgot that scum players in these roles get special abilities lol. So that's a good point, but I wasn't pretending like I didn't know that, I straight up forgot

[GuiltyLion]

Mastina would you prefer if VPB is Lord Commander over me? As token of goodwill I am happy to support him. Won't go for Dann or Titus

[GuiltyLion]

mmmmmm ok

I am gonna sleep on this game

the last couple pages have made me feel good about TSQ/fireisred/firebringer, just the conversation and thoughts being shared feel pure and productive and I'm largely in agreement with them

shoutout the TSQ post about feeling antsy about scum!Datisi world being both the most dangerous and yet still not likely, I am feeling the same way in that part of me has a desperate urge to start building in guardrails in case I'm reading Datisi totally wrong but another louder part of me still thinks he's just town

and I liked the fireisred/firebringer discussion about worlds of this game and whether we're in the world of 4 scum contained in a list of players mostly just boxed out of the game and not really trying

I still am not really there on UNOwen scum but Dann wagon doesn't feel so bad. I might prefer furtive

I will be back tomorrow - I am going to vote Titus for Lord Commander

[GuiltyLion]

i haven't exactly built a case filled with post numbers and deep dives to give a tldr:
> I don't like his questioning, they didn't seem like actual questions to help him get mindset of player
> I don't feel his reads are genuine.
> He hasn't done anything since basically day 1 at all to even pretend to be scumhunting imo.

I can do deep case if needed but skim iso tell me if disagree.

Firebringer can you skim his ISO in Situation Room and tell me what you think

it checks these same boxes

and maybe that's personality indicative instead of alignment indicative, like maybe he's scum, I will reread him again here, but I don't think you can specifically say questions that don't dig at mindset or not doing stuff constantly are scumtells for UNOwen in the way they are for players on average

[GuiltyLion]

I don't know if I like that Firebringer didn't accept UNOwens challenge

Firebringer, why didn't you accept

[GuiltyLion]

10% chance of instantly killing your top scumread

[GuiltyLion]

Trial by Combat has been increased to 10% chance of death - there is still a limit of two trials per day.

[GuiltyLion]

I also think if you're confident in your scumread, which FB has indicated that he is, it's better to take odds that they die. Town outnumber mafia and if you flip green people will also know your scumread was genuine

[GuiltyLion]

Execution Vote Day Two

With nineteen players alive - it will require ten votes to eliminate a player.

GuiltyLion [5]:

Junkochan, Thestatusquo, Firebringer, mastina, ProfessorDrapion

Dwlee99 [5]:

GuiltyLion, Titus, Datisi, Andresvmb, VP Baltar

Firebringer [2]:

Enchant, furtiveglance,

not voting [7]:

JohnnyFarrar, PenguinPower, Andante, Dannflor, Unowen, Lady Lambdadelta, Dwlee99


Execution Deadline: (expired on 2022-12-02 22:58:35)

Does everyone think my wagon is pure here

I highly highly doubt it.

There must be scum in Shea/Fire/Drap

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Firebringer

[GuiltyLion]

Datisi what do you think of my VC point

who do you think is scum pushing me as a CW to Dwlee, if anyone

especially knowing for a fact now that Dwlee wagon has Titus (town), Andres (town), Datisi (town FYPOV), GL (town FMPOV)

[GuiltyLion]

wrong Fire guys

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: drapion

let's put the money where my mouth is for now

gl, what's your case on firebringer other than... him voting you at some point? poe?

I really don't like that he didn't accept UNOwen's challenge, or his UNOwen scumread in general. It feels like he's hoping UNOwen's playstyle will do the legwork for him instead of analyzing at a real level why UNOwen is scum

[GuiltyLion]

that's another good point, I don't like that FB has tried to push the idea of "all town council" since like the start of the game

[GuiltyLion]

Can you stop spinning literally everything to try to shade me?

Reminder: You wanted Mastina as king.

Yes, because she's the slot most likely to be town besides me. The fact that I disagree entirely with her reads doesn't change that fact

The chances she kills u is extremely high, and yet for some reason u ignore this fact.
Friend i think uve lost it.

thats dumb and i would hope u realize it.

Yeah, having a conftown in an unkillable role, so dumb. Gosh how can I be sooooo stupid

You want to give a gun to someone who knows will kill you, but apparently this is rational because somehow its better for you to be dead and that person who has bad reads to continue killing town.

Yes, this is ridiculous. You should realize its ridiculous. Just because she is town doesn't mean she is right, you know this.

i didn't know i had to sell GL on the idea he needs to live.

this whole argument was also pointless, especially given that Mastina is already Prince, what's the point

if FB is really worried about Mastina killing me he should be working to change Mastina's reads, not chastise me for thinking she's mechanically the best choice for the role

[GuiltyLion]

mastina is there anything i can do or say to get u to stop tunneling GL?
Or even VPB?

and I guess to be fair he did make a token gesture at that here

but it's pretty tepid, like instead of town casing me he puts the onus on her

[GuiltyLion]

I do think if Datisi Never Dies we need to start walking down that paranoia road eventually, however I'm not sure yet if this particular moment is the right time for it, although I trust your intentions

namely despite my prior scumread on Titus I kind of think her reaction to being cleared has felt townie? specifically this:

Titus is playing weird all game saying she wants chaos, and in the Kingsguard thread made a strange post about maybe not wanting to be commander, then when I questioned her on it, she immediately self votes.

she said it was a reaction test to out scum, I think her thinking was maybe scum would try to argue she should not be Lord Commander despite being town, and I buy that explanation.

that said, I

do

think we need to start wondering why scum doesn't seem to be afraid of the cop. Like they killed Luke before they killed Junko, and then they killed Andres instead of the new doc Mastina. Why are they not worried about being guiltied?

[GuiltyLion]

but who is scum hardbussing in that world? Datisi? and even if you're going for a hard bus, the dream is to get another miselim first so that the hardbussers can continue to further hard bus and then play the "y'all should have listened to me when you wasted a lim on GL" card

[GuiltyLion]

fireisred, what's your opinion on Titus as Lord Commander, I think that's what VPB his chiefly concerned about at the moment

[GuiltyLion]

I'll be around later

Has Dann ever completely lurked out of a game before as scum, does anyone know?

[GuiltyLion]

I would rather have GuiltyLion on the counsel because I feel we can work together well and I think he's likely town.

Who precisely are my other options?

Titus why are you townreading me? I know we have clashed in several games historically so I'm a little unsure what to make of you comfortably townreading me here

[GuiltyLion]

I'd like a full report of the night actions but if the council tried shenanigans and it worked I'm inclined to think it's prob a town council

I think LLD associatives with Dann are pretty bad and would like to lim there today

my other scumreads are FB and furtive tho I am open to a re-eval if FB is in fact town, maybe Drap is my misread

[GuiltyLion]

Hope you will realize Mastina that it means wolves purposely attacked me knowing I would be Jailkept.

if they're trying to frame you and know you are jailkept, why wouldn't they just not attack at all? like this feels like an overly specific claim that they attacked you when they wouldn't have to do that?

[GuiltyLion]

How is literally anyone scum reading Firebringer at this point

I don't know, maybe you should read the case made on him by UNOwen and the skeevy way he tried to push me vs Dwlee on D2

[GuiltyLion]

also who do you think is scum on the council if not FB

FB is the only one that really could be scum IMO, maybe Shea in a fraction of universes. Datisi is town, Andante was town, Mastina was cleared by Datisi

[GuiltyLion]

Titus also cleared by Datisi

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, sorry I wasn't around

what part of the bigger picture am I missing - the best reason given for you being town is being townie in the Council PT which I don't have access too

I don't like your UNOwen scumread and I don't see what you've done in main thread that is townie

[GuiltyLion]

also if you are town then this game is nearly at POE easymode so I guess I'm not worried yet about misfiring on you, especially since I think we at least agree on most townreads

[GuiltyLion]

ok so if you put yourself in my shoes, what have you done here that I should townread that I'm missing

asking in good faith, not trying to be snarky or pick a fight, I'll take your answer seriously since I do think no deaths is kinda odd if you're scum

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think your Dwlee vote is never a bus? like you weren't very vocal / instrumental in getting them limmed.

with the King elections I think something weird was going on there because FMPOV all of VPB/Junko/GL are town, I should prob reread that section of the game since it now looks like scum just missed the boat on pushing a scumKing and were probably either just detached from the game or scrambling to pocket in the three of us

who do you think is scum here - is it just some combo of furtive/drap/roden/enchant/lld? like if that's the case we're ok and we'll sort it out. how do you feel about LLD

[GuiltyLion]

My associatives with Dann are bad how, precisely?

Dann has no reason or established trajectory to post 1230 if you are town, sorry you got caught by a bad play by your partner but them's the breaks sometime

[GuiltyLion]

we gotta try to time next nightfall for 6-8 hours earlier so we aren't waiting for Datisi cop results for so long lol

[GuiltyLion]

Dann, Owen, Datisi (Pending), GL (Pending), Enchant

ok, so you're asserting Datisi is scum on the council who no killed to become even deeper wolf so that he can... continue to be forced to clear town or guilty his buddies? brilliant

also your passionate defense of FB feels kinda white knighty lol

[GuiltyLion]

See I don’t think GL as a wolf jumps into the day and slams a vote for their partner for king.
Doesn’t make sense to me.

yea i don't think scum would advance scum wincon. doesn't make sense to me

hold up, are you trying to argue my vote for Dann was advancing scum wincon

I moved off of it pretty much the second I had a better townread and never returned

[GuiltyLion]

actually wait I didn't move off of it for a long time? lmao I thought I voted VPB or Andres way earlier than that, my b

[GuiltyLion]

my point was he was more easier to read than LLD

and I do think when he's town he tends to be an easy townread

however he kinda started chronically lurking and then flaked out on the game and I wasn't sure what to make of it cause I've never seen him do that before

[GuiltyLion]

actually idk if I can explain it perfectly cause I'm exhausted and a lil stoned but the reasoning was more along the lines of like, I think it's more likely I'd get paranoid and mistakenly scumread a town!LLD vs misread a town!Dann

that doesn't necessarily mean I will always catch scum!Dann, rather it was a point that I'd be less likely to have catastrophically bad lategame paranoia assuming he was town whereas I could easily see that happening in King LLD world

[GuiltyLion]

eh, I don't think those posts really contradict each other but whatever

[GuiltyLion]

@fire - I'm certainly not gonna argue I have like,

great

associatives with Dann lol. it's fair to be suspicious of me here I get that. tho @roden I'd prefer if you didn't try to do these pointless dunks unless you're actually gonna vote me and sell me to the PL

[GuiltyLion]

mmm it might, I wanna wait for Datisi result first tho

[GuiltyLion]

mmmmmm

something feels off to me in this game

if all of my townreads are town then the POE is incredibly incredibly narrow and that is worrying me but I am not sure what to do

gonna sleep on it, might be back later before bed tho

[GuiltyLion]

do we want to kill datisi today?

I'm very interested in killing Datisi today actually...I just had a thought

isn't it better to squeeze at least one more cop check out of him, if not more (if we flip scum today)

what's the argument for killing him today specifically

[GuiltyLion]

why is this the thought that you had about it? (ik it's a vague question, there's a point)

I didn't like that Roden was blanket discrediting the council in 4450 and 4456 without naming names, especially combined with his "Firebringer is obvtown" read, so I asked him who he thought was scum on the council. when he gave me 4480 in reply, I went back to check his "scum reads list" which I found in 3866, and saw that you were the only council member on there. So then I tried to carry his thought process from 4456 ("intentionally giving up a kill to let scum council members more effectively deep wolf is kind of a basic play here.") out to its natural conclusion - if you are scum in the cop role, it's not really all that effective to stall because you either have to keep calling townies town, give us a (real) guilty, or give us a fake guilty and trade yourself 1-1, all of these things are better served by continuing to make NKs and whittle down the PL faster, buying you time doesn't really get scum!you anything. that was my thought about it.

I guess I didn't really consider that scum!you could fake clear a buddy, but in any world it doesn't strike me as a "natural" play to try to make yourself deep(er) wolf when you'd already be a deep wolf in this world and you're in the council role that's expected to give results every single day

[GuiltyLion]

Is it just me that can't comprehend a green check on LLD? If Datisi does flip scum, LLD should be next

I actually vibe with the thought process here and I don't see any scum!incentive to post this? like this is not survivalist, this will not net scum!furtive anything in the town!Datisi world, this strikes me as an unintuitive post to make as scum.

fireisred, do you really think "forgetting his read" is more likely to come from scum here specifically, I don't see that as a contradiction or indicative of scum mindset. I can believe a town!furtiive had a read on LLD decay over the course of ~2000 posts.

[GuiltyLion]

I can get behind 4674 and in the world where all of Datisi/LLD/Titus/Mastina are town then I agree Drapion is probably scum, his play today feels a bit like flailing as well

I want to re-ISO before dropping a vote but Drapion feels like a good wagon

also can someone actually detail what the night actions were

[GuiltyLion]

I think we're either in the simple POE world of drap/enchant/furtive/UNOwen with likely no scum on council, maybe FB trying to deepwolf in this one but it's not necessary to make the pieces fit together

or we're in a Datisi scum world with LLD

I agree with furtive that despite my Datisi townread, a green result on LLD is frankly baffling, I still maintain that she had the worst associatives with Dann of any player and that result feels more surprising to me than even the mastina result was

and her push to lim Datisi after he just green checked her feels kinda like it could be a bus play? idk - if I'm town and I'm cleared by cop then if the cop is green I want him to keep giving me results... I don't think I'd push to lim him unless I'm actively confidently scumreading him or one of his checks. I'm trying to entertain the idea of perhaps becoming conftown by cop death and whether that would be appealing in LLD's position, but if that's what she wants then she's advocating to lim town which doesn't make a ton of sense either

[GuiltyLion]

I made a post in the supporters PT ISO digging on Dann, here's what I had said

Spoiler: GL post on Dann ISO

Andante/fireisred - I think is spewed town by Dann, early push doesn't feel like scum trying to bus/distance, especially 71 strikes me as Dann frustrated that town is being townread, which means small town points to Datisi here too, especially since Dann didn't follow up on his reply.

Contrast with 210 which kinda gives me a S/S vibe, although that might just be me being biased. 214 also fits a "explain to the thread why my buddy is townie" profile if I'm just running with the FB scumread

278 is kinda pockety, more good feelings towards Dats here

nothing in the first argument with LLD makes me think unaligned

617 kinda gave me a townvibe when I first saw that post not knowing Dann's alignment, I think the ultimate goal with it was to just sound town, but now that I'm scrutinizing it more closely knowing he's mafia it feels a little too tentative to give a read on LLD there, I think if she's town and he's afraid to get on her bad side he's probably faking more of a TR? Why specifically call it out as NAI? vaguely partnery

812 again one of those posts where the smart/reasonable side of me thinks is probably NAI if I'm being totally rigorous but my heart wants to say this is a S-S interaction with FB

842 I think the one takeaway I feel good about from this post without trying to dig too deep into WIFOM is there's a scum in LLD/FB, if not both, because they're in his "nebulous" null tier with two flipped townies (three if you count VPB as well) and I am sure he puts at least one scumbud in that tier

1230 - now he wants LLD on the council? Why does he do this if she is town? +++scumpoints for LLD here, I have a hard time seeing this as anything but agendapost

1430 - again with a random soft poke at FB, this is a pattern by this point and if I had no respect for Dann's scum game, like if he were a newbie, I'd say this is definitely distancing but idk, feels almost too obvious? If FB is town, is he really a slot worth chipping away at at this juncture in the game?

1705 - I'd be very impressed with Dann if Datisi is scum here, I think it'd be pretty weird to ask a buddy if they think another buddy should be TRing them, I rarely see that kind of dynamic and feels more like distancing and sucking up to a townie

3073 - both FB's post and Dann's reply just feels so lifeless to me here? It's like they feel obligated to talk to each other but neither is demonstrating a ton of Real Drive to sort each other, in Dann's case we know why but this is just kinda dismissive if FB is town

I still think LLD being bit of a lurksack but then showing up exactly when Dann writes a huge case on her specifically just to argue with it, and do virtually nothing else, is pretty scummy timing from LLD

that's all I got for now, I don't see a ton wrt his associatives to furtive, drapion, Roden that stood out as particularly noteworthy or indicative. there's a couple points of furtive shade but I could see it either way. he actually doesn't engage with Drapion at all, which is a lil odd but could also see that going either way (one trick I try to do as scum sometimes is completely ignore a townie so my buddies can try to paint us as partnered if/when I go down)

[GuiltyLion]

despite my fighting with him last night, I don't think I'll be voting furtive today

[GuiltyLion]

you'd have much better odds if you try to flatter me and butter me up

but nah, it just feels too much like bait here. I'll go for Drapion probably, maybe Enchant, but not furtive. I think his posts today have felt townie, especially 4668, it's very hard for me to imagine the world where scum writes that post.

[GuiltyLion]

idk i think drapion more likely to flip town here and we all have egg on our faces than furtive. Like much higher.
Drapion doesn't make sense, but theres a weird consistency to them. I mean he jumped left and right so fast ur like 'idgi how this developed at all', but theres some consistency in what he says that if i squint hard enough. Almost seems like true development of reads. I have to squint very hard tho.

I do think Drapion at times has felt like a real sorting mind behind his posts and reads, I was TRing him up until today and now I'm forced to expand my scum pool a lil bit

I want to check on his Dann progression myself tho cause I do think Datisi may have a point that the scumread/vote on Dann doesn't jive with the rest of his stated reads, and maybe this is unfair but I almost think he was a little

too

consistent with the "VP/GL share alignment" read, I'm a little skeptical town doesn't want to hold onto their previous gamestate view & scumreads there and try to consider a world where I am still scum even if VPB is town.

the whole framing of "Dann scum if GL/VPB town" doesn't really feel like a totally organic thought process either, like why do the three of us have that relationship

[GuiltyLion]

@mastina, my dislike of the gamestate is really much less that I am in the POE and more that I don't think any of furtive/Drap/UNOwen are slam dunk scum and that is making me nervous.

The council is only conftown if Datisi is town, and FB isn't really confirmed in any universe. I really hope the game is as simple as you think it is, but with each green check I am getting progressively more anxious that it is not

[GuiltyLion]

I would also argue that Drapion should go first over furtive simply for smoking Baltar. I don't like this furtive/Enchant duel that just happened but let's see where that goes.

[GuiltyLion]

Mastina, in your own words, why is furtive scum

[GuiltyLion]

Why would scum shoot FB

He's like the most miselimmable player on the council if he's town

If I were scum I'd be shooting Titus or Mastina every time

[GuiltyLion]

So four scum supported Shea and used that momentum and the supporters PT to get exactly zero (0) scum on the council?

[GuiltyLion]

Why does scum kill tracker three nights in a row

Like I've said before, tracker is the only role that can actually catch a scum on the council

[GuiltyLion]

Why does scum kill tracker three nights in a row

Like I've said before, tracker is the only role that can actually catch a scum on the council

Especially if they're using their sekrit powers

[GuiltyLion]

Why does scum kill tracker three nights in a row

Like I've said before, tracker is the only role that can actually catch a scum on the council

Okay well I had tracker lol

Ok, but look at mastinas logic here

If all the PRs are town, tracker isn't a threat
So it doesn't explain why you would be shot in that universe either

Do you think you were shot?

[GuiltyLion]

Also if Dat is a wolf, none of their checks are a wolf,
He truth told his checks.

I think if Datisi is wolf it's almost a certainty that one of the checks is mafia, either Mastina or LLD imo

Frustrating thing is I don't know if this is scum!LLD maneuvering on maf!Datisi flip or town!LLD solving correctly

I almost think town!LLD right now because how much mileage can she really get if/when mastina flips town?

[GuiltyLion]

I also am not sure if Drapion is faking a dumbtell here

He may be town after all

[GuiltyLion]

It can go to fireisred or Titus (maybe, is she eligible?), that would be totally fine. We'd still get the information on the checks

Mom help mastina is spouting nonsense in the thread again

[GuiltyLion]

I've been bitten before but

surely

a scum Drapion would understand how the PRs are assigned if he's been trying to play around them, right? I think the only way he's scum here is if this is completely fake

[GuiltyLion]

I'm being more swayed to lim Datisi now and give cop to Titus if he flips town or fireisred if he flips mafia

Andante and Dann is never S/S imo

[GuiltyLion]

My hero solve is FB/Datisi/Mastina

Quote this post-game my friends

[GuiltyLion]

@Shea, did anyone encourage you to make Mastina Prince in the council PT? I know I was advocating for it but I was still surprised when you did it, who else encouraged that idea?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Datisi

[GuiltyLion]

Mastina being erroneously cleared would actually make a lot of this game make more sense for me

I really don't like how she's insisting council is all town, and that FB was shot. I get that we very much may still be in a world where that happened, but her confidence rings hollow.

FB did you answer my question about whether you believe you were shot last night

[GuiltyLion]

dats/mastina/titus were unprotected

This actually made me think on something

Say there is scum on the council but Datisi/Mastina/Titus are all town - they actually

can't

kill Datisi without outing themselves, right? Maybe you kill Titus or Mastina and pass that off, but knowing that these were the slots that went unprotected actually kinda just reinforced my recent thinking that scum on the council does have incentive to gambit

Roden I apologize for my pre-emptive snark last night, I was high and a fool

[GuiltyLion]

Wait who was pushing or going to push to miselim Datisi

There was like barely any discussion of this before today

[GuiltyLion]

I think the number of elims argument is not really that compelling when Duels are a thing

[GuiltyLion]

Like furtive and Enchant may have already burned this super valuable scum-would-never-willingly-give extra miselim we earned lmao

[GuiltyLion]

The scum really want the tracker power, for whatever reason.

That would require a scum on the council...

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah also it's not just resolving Datisi a Datisi townflip literally 100% clears three players

That's valuable in and of itself

[GuiltyLion]

Also I think we're at a point where we also ask why scum has not killed any of the clears

Like I haven't been talking about it much because its anti-town but a town!Mastina is insanely dangerous to scum, why have scum not attacked her for three straight nights

[GuiltyLion]

Everyone can see all the ways in which 4847 is Very Disingenuous, right? I gotta go for a bit but I'll be back to dissect it later

FireBringer. Do we need to go over this again. If Datisi is town she's next in line to be an unkillable conftown doctor unless scum can completely overtake the kingsguard. That alone is worth like 17% win probability in ELO because it changes from a 33% to 50%

[GuiltyLion]

FB regardless of your alignment it's been fun playing with ya this game especially today you are making me laugh, thanks for being you buddy

[GuiltyLion]

Because LLD is pocketed and angry.

??? Who is she pocketed by, and why are you characterizing her as angry?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm unclear on why today over a later day?

For me I don't really think furtive or Drapion are likely to be scum, that makes me think gamestate is potentially fucked, flipping Datisi either 1) confirms that it's fucked or 2) confirms that it's not fucked, in which case we can solve in the POE with confidence

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry and I should have added if the gamestate IS fucked, we would benefit greatly from knowing that sooner rather than later

Mastina is grossly exaggerating the downside of flipping Datisi and I'll get to that in a bit once on PC

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Titus posts are so bad it's making me wonder if FB is the pocketed townie and both mastina/Titus were miscleared, possibly because "no way scum!cop clears TWO buddies"

LLD is confirmed town to anyone who thinks Datisi is town, and is making a basic mechanics based argument for why flipping Datisi is correct. Titus should understand the mechanics at play here, yet she instead discredits LLD to dismiss her argument and doesn't seem interested or engaged with the underlying mechanics of it at all. Hard for me to see that as town motivated

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So its a simple follow the cop world with a town cop, and scum have been leaving the cop and all of his checks alive, instead trying to shoot FB or fireisred last night

Give them a scummy, that team sure is doing a great job trying to win the game

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I'm starting to think we fucked up bad by putting Titus as LC

Imagine the world where Datisi/Titus/mastina are scum. They are close to a scum king, a fake guilty tomorrow may be game winning already

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Scum LC can prob unilaterally overthrow

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That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

When you don't have a reasonable guess at what scum is doing, it's wise to hedge your bets in case someone you have been trusting has actually deceived you

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if Datisi is town we might feel a lil dumb but then we'd have a

confirmed

town cop, there's no way scum could push to get rid of Titus in that world and it'd be likely she'd hit on a red pretty much immediately if the POE is accurate

mastina wants to hand wave away all the valid worries about "what if Datisi is scum" with this idea that scum could not have possibly intentionally no-killed last night because of the advantage of an extra lim. extra lim doesn't matter because of duels. and I've now become paranoid that if

both

mastina and Titus are scum (not the most likely world, but certainly possible), then scum have a strong foothold into the King position that is almost unreversible with a few fewer players and certainly a better mech advantage than one fewer lim. So it's far safer to be playing around the Datisi scum world right now, than later.

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That's the rub though, I don't have a good response to what scum are doing beyond raging.

When you don't have a reasonable guess at what scum is doing, it's wise to hedge your bets in case someone you have been trusting has actually deceived you

Which is why the lim the cop at elo plus one day exists...

I don't see what limming Datisi gets us.

I'm confused you don't see, because this has been walked through several times over the past few pages

if Datisi is scum, "what we get" is very very obvious, yes?

if Datisi is town, we lose Datisi, but we replace him with you as the new 100% indisputably conftown cop-confirmed cop, so mechanically we've lost nothing. We also

gain

conftown status on Mastina and LLD. Mastina wants to pretend y'all are

already

conftown, but the fact is objectively you are not.

The only expense is we've spent a lim (fortunately we have an extra, as mastina has already graciously pointed out!) on town. But I think that's fairly likely to happen if we lim furtive anyways, so better to give us additional conftowns and resolve the possibility of the world where we're most likely to lose the game.

what here doesn't make sense? please explain

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lim the cop is supposed to be followed in open setups where the cop is un-CC'd and effectively conftown.

Datisi has cop

abilities

but is not conftown at all. You can't just blindly trust him here and it's dangerous to do so.

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wait, sorry, I derped, in an open setup you don't need to paranoia lim the cop, so my point is invalid

still tho, we have additional mech at play here (King, Prince, Kingsguard, council, etc) that makes it dangerous to assume town will have traditional numbers/counterplay. if Datisi is scum it's almost a certainty that one of his checks in Mastina/Titus is scum as well on the council

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So its a simple follow the cop world with a town cop, and scum have been leaving the cop and all of his checks alive, instead trying to shoot FB or fireisred last night

we have been protecting the cop until yesterday.
for all scum knew one of datisi checks has also been protected (they weren't, but for all we know they don't know that).
To go and say 'its weird that dats and all the cop clears are alive' is like....That is the point of us having the JK/Doc guard them? What even is this argument.

Its just paranoia. Thats all there is to all of this. And we know scum have made what we all thought were questionable kills.

Ugh. Why do i bother.

but you can't protect all of Datisi/Mastina/Titus, especially with a JK which would make Datisi/Mastina useless

why has scum not tried to shoot Mastina? not tried to shoot Titus?

last night the kingsguard was Titus, GL, LLD, furtive, if Datisi is town and it's a GL/furtive team that seems like a pretty sweet time to make a run at Lord Commander by killing conf-town Titus

I feel you on no one has cased Datisi yet. I might try to do that if it will genuinely change your mind. but one issue is Datisi is a good mafia player and I wasn't really even suspecting him myself until he's had 3 checks and not given us any mafia with them. I doubt I could currently make a super convincing lock scum case even if I knew personally for a fact he was scum!

Regardless, a lack of a traditional mafia psychology case doesn't mean the mechanical argument is not good.

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Fire I'm sympathetic to what you're asking I think my thing is just, this is a paranoia / playing it safe lim. In a vacuum or a different game where nobody had any roles or results, Datisi would not be my number one suspect (that'd probably still be Mastina lol). The fundamental reason I want to lim him

is

mechanics based moreso than anything that registered for me in his play. It's suspicious that he keeps green checking these scummy slots. It's suspicious that the doctor or any of Datisi's clears haven't died. It's suspicious that a bunch of people are piling on furtive in spite of what feels like townie play from him today. It's suspicious that our overall POE pool is only like 7 players at the max (means if the team is in those players, they are passively just losing the game via bad NKs while people get cleared), especially once I factor in that I have various reasons to townread almost all of those players. The solve doesn't feel right.

These factors make me think the gamestate as a whole is off and the quickest way to get the most information on what's going on in the gamestate, even if it's to resolve paranoia and confirm that the game is actually nearly POE'd out, is to flip Datisi.

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or imagine Datisi/Mastina/Titus

where scum LC can overthrow King without majority vote (this would make a lot of sense to me as scum ability as LC)

we lim town!furtive today - 12 players remain, 9v3

FB or fireisred or LLD dies, 11 players remain, 8v3

Datisi has a "guilty" on town, town trusts the result and miselims - 10 players remain, 7v3

Titus overthrows at night, scum kills a townie - 8 players remain, 5v3

Mastina immediately executes - 7 players remain, 4v3

scum kills at night, 6 players remain, 3v3 gg, mafia win

You actually can't lim a guilty result in this world, but I don't know if I trust that people would lim Datisi here

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i was continuously being protected up until last night. scum couldn't kill me. i think it's v obvious i'm town via dayplay, so the only way to score my misyeet is by arguing the mechanics.

if you are town, isn't it actually better for scum to keep you alive because then your clears aren't cleared yet and your misyeet would be guaranteed to come even later when it's forced

misyeeting you now, assuming you are town, just makes the rest of the game harder for scum, right?

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like if Datisi is town scum definitely want him alive, no? having Titus be conftown cop and the POE (which would be effectively game winning with town!Mastina, town!LLD, town!Titus, likely all-town council, etc) is strictly worse

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the only real scum motivation to yeet Datisi here (again assuming he's town) is if it's scum directly on the chopping block instead

I find it odd Datisi suggests his actual misyeet is itself valuable. It's really not because we 100% clear three other townies with his death (if he is town) and make one of them the next cop, that's overall a net negative for scum

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I also really need someone to explain to me like I'm 5 how/why four scum supported Shea as king but then somehow didn't get onto the council in a town!Datisi world.

a somewhat minor point on this I feel compelled to share for people like FB, fireisred, yourself:

Others who have access to the Supporters PT can attest that my main campaign in the supporters PT when Shea was deciding on council picks was Junko off, VPB on. I obviously said I'd support myself on council as a throwaway comment but I was clear that the main person who I wanted on who wasn't being considered was VPB.

so if people are thinking I may have been scum in this zone of "vote Shea for King to pocket, then try to get on council but failed to do so", there is pretty clear evidence in that PT that I was pushing for another flipped townie to be on the council instead of myself, which should poke a hole in that argument/idea. and if my partners are some assortment of furtive/UNOwen/Enchant/Drapion, I didn't lobby for any of them on the council significantly at all - think I had a grand total of one post where I said UNOwen was fine as a council pick when Shea gave an argument for it.

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i am obviously protected.

but if you get yeeted then Titus is obviously protected, and further

cannot

be limmed because she'd be confirmed town by your flip

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like, say Datisi is town, why wouldn't scum continue to push you as we get closer and closer to ELO? wouldn't your misyeet be

even worse

at 9p or 7p? you absolutely cannot live until endgame if we don't flip more scum soon.

there would be an argument for keeping Datisi alive if we couldn't just assign his cop powers to somebody else, if the role died with him. but given we can just have replacement cop and two possible slots for either flip that are either conftown (Titus) or pretty damn close to obvtown (fireisred), misyeeting Datisi costs us basically nothing. it doesn't lose us a cop check.

and the scenario where Datisi is scum and fakes a guilty tomorrow becomes dangerous very quickly.

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i thought (and still think) his jump onto me has been very weird and potentially doesn't track with his thought process, but in order to verify that i have to actually sit down and read the thread properly, something i didn't have an opportunity to do until now. fire knows this - where am i being limp, exactly? because i don't wanna make arguments when i can't check them?

if you find yourself still thinking this after you've read the thread properly, I'd like for you to also consider and explain what you think town!me would be doing in my position instead

I am sure you can empathize with my difficulties wrapping my head around the gamestate in the world where literally all of Mastina, Titus, LLD are town, since you also thought each of them was an appropriate slot to check

I am not at all sold on your case / read on furtive nor your scumread on UNOwen

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yah more the former. Like I can maybe buy that you think you have good reasons to suspect him or that cases presented elsewhere are good, but personally I don't think they're all that convincing, and it kinda feels like you haven't acknowledged furtive's moments of towniness, 4668 being one such example for me, or him accepting a duel with Enchant. like is that just theater or is scum!furtive pure yoloing? why does he do that instead of sit back and maybe see if one of the other duels on the table (GL v Roden, Enchant v literally anyone else, FB vs UNOwen) has a chance of happening?

generally like the POE is so narrow and off-feeling that I am starting to Freak Out and it's worrying to me that you are not indicating similar levels of paranoia. But I recognize that is unfair because theoretically you have a lot more information than I do.

so I think this is going to be a semi difficult conversation for us to reach true mutual understanding because I'm sure if I had mod-confirmed intel that you and your checks were town, the POE suspects would feel scummier to me because they virtually

have

to be scum. but from where I'm sitting without any of that intel, it's become more concerning/worrying to me that you may be Scum Winning moreso than an explanation where furtive is scum. cause I just don't really see what the satisfying narrative for the game is for a team in furtive/UNOwen/Drap/Roden/Enchant, it doesn't feel likely, I townread those players to varying degrees, and I think a team comprised of them have fought a lot harder at critical junctures in the game, or simply not tried to kill FB or fireisred of all people last night, etc.

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whoops, linked the wrong post, 4668 not 4866

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i am still reading, currently on page 195.

the sneak peek is that i think the way gl went from strongly defending me and saying that he thinks drapion is a decent vote (and also saying that i probably don't fakeclear buddies), to calling you scum with me if i'm scum, to saying it's almost certain some of my checks are scum if i'm scum, to townreading(?) drapion with the worst reasoning possible, to saying he's inclined to yeet me, to putting me *in his solve* - his actions don't feel like he has a coherent thought process (or rather a trajectory) behind them and like he's trying to justify the jump onto me. like, even if he agreed that it is mechanically correct to kill me today for the info, he wasn't thinking i'm scum before and was strongly townreading me, the mindset switch doesn't feel real.

i've also noticed that a couple of times in this game, both in this thread and in the supporters pt, he made weird shade-comments about me, but then insisted he is still strongly townreading me.

First off, can you reference the specific shade comments. I don't think I've done that at all and if you're going to make a claim like that you need to bring receipts.

Second, while I get that my trajectory has been a bit rapid to evolve, you're doing a thing here where you're like "it's weird... must be scum!" without addressing or thinking why town me wouldn't play this way. Like don't you think if I'm scum I would have had more of a real plan? Do you think I wanted you yeeted and was just waiting for someone else to suggest it first? Why would I open the day by fighting with Roden over that idea first before re-evaluting? Or do you think I initially was gonna keep buddying you and then decided to jump at this opportunity when it came up? What does scum!me do after you get yeeted and Titus becomes town, I've left myself no further room to readjust and the game would be pretty much POE'd there anyways

Also, my reason for townreading Drapion is good. He made it clear he didn't know how council PRs were redistributed. I think if he were scum he would understand those mechanics. So in my mind the only way he's scum is if that was all a fake dumbtell. I don't think it is. Do you think he was pretending to not understand why LLD could not become cop?

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I agree I am a good check in the Datisi town world

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I'm just rooting for penalty shootout tomorrow

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Kingsguard was:

-GL
-LLD
-Titus
-UNOwen

we each voted to overthrow, thinking a double flip would certainly net at least one scum

I imagine scum is Titus - was "cleared" by Datisi, was dismissive of idea of flipping Datisi yesterday. I voted to overthrow in part to see if Titus would be down to flip both Shea/Mastina, taking it as a sign of towniness if she did.

Correct play here is to lim Mastina as it's indisputable that whoever is scum on the kingsguard did not want her to be flipped along with Shea. She also should have protected fireisred yesterday

It's probably just Titus+Mastina. for as much as FB was defending Datisi yesterday, I don't think he was actually aware of Datisi's alignment, and his thought process was understandable, much moreso than Titus'

VOTE: Mastina

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I have serious questions about the Doctor and the Master of Coin. Why was fireisredsir allowed to die?

As for the King presumably being overthrown, I townread them after Dannflor's flip, and would have protected had I been on the Kingsguard. I protected the night before last night, when I was on a 4-player Kingsguard. Mastina as King worries me, as she tried to clear the entire council which was wrong. This has still yet to be explained to me. Both Firebringer and Mastina have serious questions to answer today, we need full transparency about the failures of the Council

we wanted to get Mastina and personally I thought on the oddball chance that Mastina was somehow town, then Shea would be possible scum

I also wanted to see if Titus would push back against the idea of total overthrow

she did not, but I suspect she lied to us about her vote. this result certainly confirms a scum who lied on the Kingsguard

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I did not think about whether Mastina could potion herself to prevent the overthrow, but if she did that then she's still scum for valuing her own life over that of the cop's

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I think the paranoia scenario is LLD scum, but I overall doubt yesterday goes the way it did with scum!LLD. She could have made her position on flipping Datisi known without doing the late day lobbying that she did to attempt to get Drapion and Firebringer and Titus on board. She also encouraged Shea to execute Datisi. I don't think she needed to make that extra effort if she were scum, the ideal case for her would be a furtive miselim and

then

to flip Datisi.

my only doubt here is that clearing town!LLD was a bad move for scum and I don't want to completely assume scum are just playing badly. but it's overall plausible that they didn't anticipate the momentum pivoting to limming Datisi and thought they could get away with trying to pocket LLD.

@furtive - why not? I don't see why Datisi wouldn't clear multiple mafia, there's so much WIFOM on his flip that it's not necessarily a bad move to do so. and securing council positions is huge

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if mastina executes town that's a scumclaim btw

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what happens if we lim Mastina before she names an heir

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I challenge mastina

I did vote to flip mastina. I don't know what happened as to why she's alive. It's a good frame move tbh.

who do you think it was

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lmao

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i didn't send any gold last night to anyone because i fucking forget ot send provisional actions to pooky. By time i woke up pooky said grace period passed and dats was flipped.

extra lmao, here I was worrying about the downside of full overthrow locking out cop + tracker

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wait I'm assuming you mean visited UNOwen?

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then how did UNOwen die

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oh kingsguard overthrow probably

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lmao yeah I was kinda hoping that would happen

MAD KING

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I'm sorry for scumreading you FB I should have stuck with my D1 townread

I'm gonna say none of my reads should count after Datisi started fucking with the POE with his FALSE(!) and MISLEADING(!) clears and therefore my reads were overall immaculate this game

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we all got pocketed by Datisi

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gg everybody I am feeling a lot of appreciation to all my fellow townies who each contributed their own pieces to this win.

Pooky, the game was a ton of fun throughout. Thank you so much for hosting and putting so much thought into creating a unique set up with excellent flavor - this game has gotten me through this first early bit of the wait to 2024 and more HoD lol. I'm liking this tradition of playing in a Pooky game in Nov/Dec to round out the year.

Can't wait to see the abilities scum had in the council and what was going on in the other PTs.

VPB I'm glad we finally rolled town together you were my rock in this game.

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These PTs are a delight to read

Can't believe Firebringer fell for the classic wizard scam smh