open 894: near vanilla (game over)

[JupiterXV]

Paranoia's setting in again, but since there's pretty much no chance I see tomorrow - {Dann, Bella, Jupiter}

why in the world is dann in your poe

hmhmhm shouldn’t dannflor be in the poe from your perspective? like to you isn’t it just ‘i’m town game is solved’?

nope
think of it like this:
i'm on a rock wall and i'm clinging desperately to my townreads
if i let go of any of them i fall to my death, because if at any point i doubt myself it is going to render this game completely unplayable for me. i've already clutched onto the rock that is my townread on dann and i'm never letting go of it
also not really??? i genuinely don't think it's dann. it's really just between shaddow, bella, and project. i really don't think it's dann

[JupiterXV]

also skygazer u made a post abt how scum dann would want to derail t3 wagon ill read thhat later

[JupiterXV]

my personal preferred order : shadow project and if all else fails, bella

[JupiterXV]

like right now you are able to solve all possible worlds

just because i am able to do something doesn't mean i want to
if dann's scum you guys can yell at me postgame i promise

[JupiterXV]

also what does that post mean

[JupiterXV]

i just think that’s not taking into account the actual situation of the game from your point of view

i dont get this

[JupiterXV]

Are people finally starting to see the light about Project

ower ive literally been scumleaning project since d2

[JupiterXV]

I jailed shadow.

I was obviously the NK target and protected!

Even so, I agree that it makes sense to lim the JK target. That said, not self voting since it goes against my wincon.

thought we made it to the

open-wolfing

shitposting phase finally

This is accurate, I'm in that kind of mood right now

fucking let me out of here

I agree that Dann grows more suspicious as each day goes by, even though it seems so outrageous. I think it’s building paranoia. But he isn’t the next vote!

All of these posts give me scummy vibes and I kinda just want to lim within this pool today.

why am i scummy

[JupiterXV]

your opening post of the day and posts from yesterday give me vibes of maf who knows they're in a losing situation and just wants it to be over

thought now that I type that out I guess you would've just conceded huh.

scum has been in a losing position since both of their partners got limmed lol
i don't gaf if i get limmed, i'm town and i have nothing to lose. i just wanna see us win

[JupiterXV]

i just think that’s not taking into account the actual situation of the game from your point of view

i dont get this

if you are town

the game is currently solved

from your perspective

my poe is project shaddow bella so yeah it is solved and it is not dann?

[JupiterXV]

not understanding

[JupiterXV]

assuming we're going through with one of project and shaddow here so i'm just chilling man

[JupiterXV]

mafia difficult because i don’t know if i can take you at face value here

because you not seeing this makes it unlikely you’d have ventured down no killing path

but a) could just be playing into that and also b) maybe incidentally ventured down that path

????

[JupiterXV]

shiki pls explain to me why dann is scum i dotn get it

[JupiterXV]

is there a mechanical reason???

[JupiterXV]

is it cause dann made that one post about him being scum and coasting or smth

[JupiterXV]

shiki pls explain to me why dann is scum i dotn get it

sigh my point wasn’t that he’s definitely a scums

but what is your point???

[JupiterXV]

i mean i already have a poe i hhave full faith in you guys at this point it's really just not dann here like nuh uh no way

[JupiterXV]

Շնորհավոր սուրբ ծնունդ +) <3

what does this mean

[JupiterXV]

happy christmas also

[JupiterXV]

did you do the exercise? maybe don't do it aloud tho

no
i'll do it sometime soon though
also i'm sorry i have no mech brain so i'm not really sure what this indicates

[JupiterXV]

(reason I say sometime soon is because I have to study for a finals next week) (sorry for being dumb I'm not good at these kinds of things)

[JupiterXV]

basically just think about

what happens if the scums never kills

and what happens if the scums kills x

wait so what is this asking, do i map out the scenarios of what happen in the following days

[JupiterXV]

i awakaen

[JupiterXV]

but if by approach you just mean like how i'm approaching day play, i think my play would be kinda similar regardless of alignment i guess

i think i asked this very poorly

how like, town of salem expert, does jupiterxv feel to you?

why do you bring up town of salem...

[JupiterXV]

have a lot of Bad memories associated with that game since i played it mostly through proxy and oh god oh shit i returned to it Recently like very Very recently and it was a nightmare would never do it again let me free

[JupiterXV]

oh hi skygazer

[JupiterXV]

you might know this already but after the t=xxxxx part in the url, you can put in "&ppp=200"

unless ur sayint its annoying to have to do that every time

WHAT i didn't know you could do that!! i hate having to flip between pages i would kill for that

[JupiterXV]

IT FUCKING WORKS THERE'S ONLY 15 PAGES NOW

[JupiterXV]

also my area is flash flooding because it's too hot to snow so if I go MIA that is what happened

[JupiterXV]

oh if you're asking if im a town of salem expert i am not, i moved from tos -> mafia.gg -> actual forum mafia -> back to mafia.gg -> back to forum mafia -> one game of Tos -> over here now

[JupiterXV]

so generally most of my time i spent on mafia.gg but half the time i didnt know what was going on there LOL mafia.gg players are insane and deranged idk how they play mafia so fast and scumhunt so fast

[JupiterXV]

6 minute days are crazy

[JupiterXV]

because i don't know jack about mechanics lol
i would if i could but i'm honestly as clueless as a braindead goldfish here

[JupiterXV]

wait shiki do you think i'm scum because i don't have a mechanics brain????

[JupiterXV]

sorry bad way of phrasing it but i only just realized that might be why you're questioning me

[JupiterXV]

i think if i were bella i'd try to hunt doctor, kill doctor
or otherwise pray that someone else in PoE was doctor and just keep my kill on titus every single night for the rare chance that titus roleblocks doc and dies

[JupiterXV]

if i were scum i would really want titus dead here so getting one clear on a player in the meantime seems like a pretty good trade
for end game? idk, i'm not really sure how she would percieve the rest of us like idk what people she'd take to ELO

[JupiterXV]

wait shiki do you think i'm scum because i don't have a mechanics brain????

nope not at all i am trying to get you to engage with the mechanics / wondering why you have not / wondering if what is presented lines up with actual thoughts regarding

because really, maybe you are correct for not engaging i am very bad at things and make a giant mess repeatedly, right, so maybe i should just not, not faulting that

but! you already posted 2531 as i pointed out to bellaphant earlier so actively sorting you here good

give me a sec to figure out what this post means

[JupiterXV]

i don't think it matters here but if i was the last scum and my partner's final words to me before dying were "you have to no kill every night" and didn't explain why I would just deck them. which is why i can't be scum here because t3 knows i'd head over to boston and curb stomp his ass if he ever did that to me.

also shiki are you trying to pr hunt here????? can we like not

[JupiterXV]

also can we not with the violence stuff please

yeah, sorry. i was trying to be hyperbolic but i guess it wasn't really that clear. sorry shiki and also sorry to anyone who was affected by it. also sorry t3 you know i love you (platonically) <3

[JupiterXV]

murder me

do it

you're pretty towny though

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: project

[JupiterXV]

nuh uh

[JupiterXV]

it's not skygazer
and also i talked abt project in the past but im too lazy to type it again

[JupiterXV]

w project it just comes down to poe and partnered interactions

[JupiterXV]

i dont remember if those r my reasons or sm1 elses that i sheeped but theyre the ones i remembr

[JupiterXV]

i'm pretty sure i have ?

[JupiterXV]

i'm pretty sure i talked about partnered interactiins what

[JupiterXV]

did i just forget to post about that???? im pretty sure i did what

[JupiterXV]

fuck shiki i'm confused because i could've sworn i posted something about that but that post just does Not Exist

[JupiterXV]

my thoughts come down to black is either pocketing project because he's a newbie or they're heavily partnered. i think out of any people here project is the most likely to be partnered with black though i'm not sure what the exactly probability on it being actual partnering or just pocketing.
it could be pocketing bc black was doing same think with kurta and kurta turned out to be town. however black seems like the type of player to help compensate for her scum partners (since that streak is like an Actual Thing yk) so it could be black also defending her newb partner

[JupiterXV]

thats all. il find quotes later i have maths test tomrorw

[JupiterXV]

i'm busy with MUN stuff as well as academics- semester is ending soon. won't be on much. ill skim rq

[JupiterXV]

also o7 titus. gonna miss you it was fun while u were here

[JupiterXV]

i think i might have an idea who doctor is

[JupiterXV]

but i'm not sure if i'm right because i'm really not sure here.

[JupiterXV]

Surely the doctor didn’t move off of Titus. The only doctor claim we have was Afrayed (Shiki). Even though it wasn’t clear how serious that claim was, surely Titus wouldn’t risk Shiki as a target.

So if we believe Titus wouldn’t target Shiki, then Titus jailed someone else, who must have been the doctor, meaning Afrayed’s claim was false.

But what does that say about Shiki?

i think that this just indicates shiki is town. i'm honestly more unsure about shiki now than i was before. i wouldn't put it past AK to claim doc out of spite. if he's town it was a very good move actually. if he's scum it was very risky but honestly at this point i'm willing to trust that shiki is town. i really hope i'm not wrong here.

[JupiterXV]

this mechanics shit makes my head spin.

[JupiterXV]

yesterday all we needed was titus + doctor + town were sure of and tada game won

i really did not want to eliminate skygazer yesterday.

[JupiterXV]

i'm wavering on T3, i feel like this could be unpartnered? i feel like scum tend to try and ignore moments when their partner gets called out, so T3 addressing it directly gives townie vibes in hindsight. that being said, i rlly don't like T3's end of day yesterday

i think that one post from black about pushing titus if t3 flipped town might spew t3 as town? idk if that's how it works though. otherwise i'd say t3 is around a null, probably more likely to be scum
also i think his eod was fine, i was also pretty surprised by the self-hammer

VOTE: Skygazer

are you scumreading me now? your reasoning yesterday was just survivalism, so is that still the case? or did something change?

wait what
i didn't pay much attention to it but iirc t3's push on you was a meta read? am i wrong?

gang what're the chances that afrayed and t3 are partnered

read a bit and fonna make my thoughts as consice as possible cuz typing on a phone is painful
- t3 is the lim that makes the most mechanical sense
- hiwever i think his ate leans towny his reactions seem very genuine. im reluctant to vote him
- if titus doesnt die does this game turn into something like "follow the cop" but with jailkeeper? does doc have limited protects in a row or can we keep titus alive forever
- limpoop for me is between kurta, project, aisa, and maybe ccs havent seen much from thst slot

i guess i still think jupiter has the worst posts in the aftermath of the Black flip in terms of defending / hedging on T3

(yes i know this is hypocritical but i unironically think my posts defending t3 are less partnery than are)

post 1 is literally something i had been echoing for ages at that point, it was "clearly" townspew in my eyes, especially considering black was (according to titus) sloppy enough to do it multiple times in the past
post 2 is me being confused about that post because i thought t3's push was meta and wasn't sure if i remembered it correctly.
post 3 is a question which i'm pretty sure no one answered
and honestly i think this hedging on t3 thing is a little silly since i was wrong, yes, but i really was sure that i was right at the time. so i just tried to talk people through my thought process or rather just talk to myself about it in thread

[JupiterXV]

i

could you walk me through

why you thought my 'pr hunting' or whatever yesterday

was unwise from your perspective

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

and idk it just seemed weird to me- you were just questioning someone else about who they thought doc was (or who seemed informed, at least) so it comes off to me as information that should not be collected. i think you're town but if scum is bad at mechanics i don't want to do the work for them.

[JupiterXV]

yesterday all we needed was titus + doctor + town were sure of and tada game won

i really did not want to eliminate skygazer yesterday.

i mean treat her as confirmed town would have simply won the game, so!

yeah

[JupiterXV]

read a bit and fonna make my thoughts as consice as possible cuz typing on a phone is painful
- t3 is the lim that makes the most mechanical sense
- hiwever i think his ate leans towny his reactions seem very genuine. im reluctant to vote him
- if titus doesnt die does this game turn into something like "follow the cop" but with jailkeeper? does doc have limited protects in a row or can we keep titus alive forever
- limpoop for me is between kurta, project, aisa, and maybe ccs havent seen much from thst slot

also no deaths AGAIN? is scum deliberately making no kills?? why are they doing this that makes no sense

also no deaths AGAIN? is scum deliberately making no kills?? why are they doing this that makes no sense

why do you think they are doing it?

that's the thing, i don't know
if i were scum here i'd almost certainly be on titus, but titus isn't dead yet. which is weird cuz she's and outed pr (no hate titus you're cool)
and we've gone three nights without kills which indicates that at least one of them was a no kill which doesn't make sense to me. only world i can see scum making a no kill is where they're at such a bad position that they don't want to get jailed, but scum would want to at least

try

, right? they're playing against wincon which is crazy bad for them and good for me, but. yk it seems like such a stupid play on all levels

also still don't understand this progression where Jupiter forgot that it was possible the doctor could just protect Titus over and over again

i thought doc had wandering i thought this was made clear...

[JupiterXV]

this site vs. their home site.

my site takes setups from mafiascum wiki so i just assumed it was the same

[JupiterXV]

listen i know it was wrong you guys dont have to rub it in my face :/

[JupiterXV]

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

and idk it just seemed weird to me- you were just questioning someone else about who they thought doc was (or who seemed informed, at least) so it comes off to me as information that should not be collected. i think you're town but if scum is bad at mechanics i don't want to do the work for them.

why would that be bad to you right now? i'm not asking for the who just the why

scum literally just killed titus and if i help them find the pr at all we lose our last advantage over them.

[JupiterXV]

i'm really afraid to say i don't even fucking understand my process for solving the game is either. i had some townreads but now they're just all gone i think my only concrete one is on you

[JupiterXV]

it is like, does that information not seem at all valuable to town to you,

what does this mean

[JupiterXV]

doc??? how would it be?

[JupiterXV]

dont fucking know anything this game actually SUCKS i swear i'm usually more compenetent. over the course of this game ive just been losing my overall Confidence man....

[JupiterXV]

doc??? how would it be?

because then everyone is solving from correct perspective

explain please?

[JupiterXV]

and if not what do you make of other players outright asking for that information?

feels weird

[JupiterXV]

i do know who doc is. it's me. jk

[JupiterXV]

Going with what I was just saying to shi, his sr on me looks the most opportunitistic?

is jupiterxv scumreading you? i guess i walked away from interaction mostly thinking had no reads outside of self and me

Jupiter started being like 'why is anyone tr ing bella' when shadow and I had a little conflict and then doubled down when you came in with me as your top Sus. That's certainly how it felt.

i’ve been asking why people were townreading you for a While, and i didn’t even read the argument you and shadow had. i still don’t know what it was about since i didn’t bother to read

[JupiterXV]

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

okay now i am asking for the who

i think it’s you project or damn but i really am unsure.

[JupiterXV]

doc??? how would it be?

because then everyone is solving from correct perspective

explain please?

if all of town know x is doctor, then everyone knows x is town and can base all of their assumptions on such

like yesterday another aspect of everything is informing the jailkeeper's decision as much as possible, who is safe to jail who is not safe to jail, aiming for most likely yesterday and so forth

oh

[JupiterXV]

Also i’m doing this on phone (still at mun) if i missed anything important pls tell me

[JupiterXV]

i do know who doc is. it's me. jk

who do you think would submit a titus nightkill again despite needing to succeed last night or lose?

or even what do you think are attributes you would expect from someone who did do so?

like what position would you expect such a player to be in the game?

i think it’d be someone who was in a bad position, probably. if i were scum i couldn’t imagine putting my kill on titus like ever, but i also didn’t know that kills = clears on players so i would probably have just left a lot more bodies across the chart.
ugh i’m trying to think- dropping a kill on titus is really risky and i’m not sure who here would be willing to take that kind of risk
all the people who seem like they’d do that are people i’m really not sure are 100 percent scum

[JupiterXV]

i don't wanna reveal who i think is the doctor. that'd be bad. i'm just saying i have a faint inkling

okay now i am asking for the who

i think it’s you project or damn but i really am unsure.

why do you think it's unlikely to be outworlder?

i don’t know, he just talks like he isn’t
he corrected me on the roaming modifier and earlier in the day he made this one post that gave me the impression that he just Wasn’t doctor

[JupiterXV]

But it doesn't make sense? Half way through he's saying dead townies are bad for scum because theyd be used for info/clears and then he says he'd leave bodies across the board.

because earlier i didn’t know that they were clears until dann told me

[JupiterXV]

but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled

cause theyre towny

idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny

still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened

sky gazer is literally dead

[JupiterXV]

But it doesn't make sense? Half way through he's saying dead townies are bad for scum because theyd be used for info/clears and then he says he'd leave bodies across the board.

These two statements do not conflict. Their saying that he personally wouldn't have been aware of kills clearing the JK target and sent shots anyways. Obviously it is objectively bad for scum to be killing anybody but Titus in the situation that's been going on for the past few days.

It's self-meta, essentially.

killing doctor first is better though

[JupiterXV]

If the group think is to flip project, ok, but then can we look at Jupiter again? He has had so many passes for 'i didnt read that ' , 'i didn't know', it bothers me.

Scum would never risk counter claiming here, logically

stay bothered then

[JupiterXV]

but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled

cause theyre towny

idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny

still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened

sky gazer is literally dead

do you think, scums killed her? also why do you think those posts were of note to me?

she’s dead because you guys killed her and also idk

[JupiterXV]

idk how to answer questions about what scum thinks when they kill people or what scum would do cuz it’s like why do u think i would know

[JupiterXV]

but also why would skygazer think she or dannflor would be likely to be nightkilled

cause theyre towny

idk i thhink scum here wants to kill anyone who's confirmed or towny

still looking for opportunism re:bellaphant scumread (haven't gone back to look at the previous days yet as when you state it here you said you've been saying it for days) but! want to remember this happened

sky gazer is literally dead

do you think, scums killed her? also why do you think those posts were of note to me?

she’s dead because you guys killed her and also idk

my hands may not be entirely clean there but i did not vote for her (nor am i a guys);

oh shit uhh “you guys” as an informal gender-neutral term used to refer to a group of people directly sorry

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: jupiter

sorry you rolled scum

ok.

[JupiterXV]

also somehow i missed the entirety of page 128

[JupiterXV]

this game has been long enough for me to have an orchestra event three times over the course of the game, a MUN conference twice, hospitalized once, and … well you get the idea can it please be over yet

[JupiterXV]

prodge- really busy since it's end of semester in the following week or two.

[JupiterXV]

Do you think Jupiter has been solving?

to answer this: absolutely not at this point I've just given the fuck up

[JupiterXV]

eventually i'll find some motivation to play this game

[JupiterXV]

got prodded
going to second project's opinion that shiki is probably not doc but also probably not scum. i really don't think it's project here- i used to feel super strongly about him but now that titus is dead i think it's honestly pretty probable that it could be him. i also really don't think it's dann here.

[JupiterXV]

also what does scum ower have to gain from tunneling the entire game

[JupiterXV]

rip shiki, we'll miss you o7
welcome, tired person!

[JupiterXV]

i really don't want to vote project. if i were jk here i'd jail project and i'm pretty sure titus would make a similar choice

[JupiterXV]

i really don't want to vote project. if i were jk here i'd jail project and i'm pretty sure titus would make a similar choice

I am not clear who you *do* want to vote

me too

[JupiterXV]

the only person who i don't have a concrete reason to townread yet is bella and i don't want to vote ower but i will if i have to

[JupiterXV]

like i'm honestly Really not sure who it is here i just know that it's not dann or tiredperson

[JupiterXV]

also what does scum ower have to gain from tunneling the entire game

I think asking “what does scum gain from x” is the wrong type of question to ask when you are hunting for scum

Most of the time, scum aren’t exclusively taking actions that obviously further their win conditions

but the fact remains that in my experience players with largely static reads throughout the game are a little more likely to be scum than not

It’s harder to fake read changes than it is to fake a tunnel basically

oh, okay. that makes sense, thank you for answering

[JupiterXV]

the reason i like to scumhunt that way is because as scum i tend to be always calculating risk/reward scenarios and i think most other people will at least want to be careful

[JupiterXV]

yeah but the issue with tunneling especially for a long time is that it makes you look bad

[JupiterXV]

e.g assume project is town ower is scum, ower knows project is LHF and easy to push. the issue with this push is that literally everyone ELSE also knows project is or at least has lhf potential because he's more unfamilliar with mafia. obviously ower could be scum here but lying down on project for so long when there are clearly better positions to take (that could also give you more towncred btw) just kind of feels disadvantageous and i'm not sure if it comes from stubbornness or scum. at this point it could be from scum ower who laid down on project for too long and just couldn't get back up, or it could be from town.
personally i've seen a lot of townies who stubbornly tunneled on some players and drove games to ruin because of it (t3 if you're in specchat: talking about bob here, if you remember him!!! havent been in aops maf community in a while so idk if he still does this but yk). and i also tunnel a lot out as town but that's less trying to push one player and one player only but LITERAL tunnel vision like only this player exists and I will kill them dead

[JupiterXV]

oh wait t3 wasn't in aops mafia community until recently no you wouldn't know but you could read like any past game with town bob and watch him tunnel so bad

[JupiterXV]

I think the main thing I don’t love from Project is how many times he’s pulled the newbie card in his ISO to argue why he can’t be scum or to hedge on his reads

this is what i've been saying for a while, yeah
i think i'm more willing to bet that project is town, though. i could be wrong

[JupiterXV]

I think the main thing I don’t love from Project is how many times he’s pulled the newbie card in his ISO to argue why he can’t be scum or to hedge on his reads

I accept me being a newbie doesn’t rule me out being scum, I think I’ve just meant it in a way that it explains a lot of my actions (or lack of actions). But I appreciate that can be frustrating to others.

it's really not a good defense and it feels like you're taking the easy pass out tbh

[JupiterXV]

okay, that wasn't phrased well. give me a sec

[JupiterXV]

i forgor

[JupiterXV]

okay, that wasn't phrased well. give me a sec

anyways my issue with the newbie defense is that it's just. not a good defense? you can use it in any situation for any reason and instead of actually explaining why _ occured because you did _, you just say "hey I'm a newbie that's why". no thought process, nothing at all.
it's also kind of pointless because when you sya you're a newb and that's why _ doesn't incriminate you or why black isn't your partner, it's like.... in the latter example, you being a newbie could literally be a reason behind why you and black could be partnered. or as you literally just said, you being a newbie could be a reason behind why you're not contributing.... regardless of whether you're town or scum. it's not a productive way to defend yourself, it's irritating to respond to, and also it's like. yeah i know it's an explanation but i'm trying to explain why i feel like. it's not a good kind of type of post to make? if that makes sense? like there are better ways to defend yourself from accusations that make yourself look more towny and i think "i'm a newbie" defenses tend to more commonly come from scum
i dont wanna get nitpicky because it's really fine and i can't control what you do. at this point i kind of doubt you're scum at all and maybe it's just OWER here

[JupiterXV]

IM SORRY IF IM BEING MEAN I DONT WANNA TRY AND FORCE YOU TO DO ANYTHING
i'm just trying to like. help i guess. an example of a more productive way to defend yourself when ower says black is buddying you is. you could find an interaction between you two that shows explicitly that you're not partnered. or you could take into account the way T3 and black interact and use that as the baseline, explain why that's how you're not partnered with either of them. those are just ideas off the top of my head but at the time you probably would have not considered these options

[JupiterXV]

you're also probably older than me and I don't want to boss around an elder

[JupiterXV]

actually everyone here is probably older than me excludign t3
MB GUYS....

[JupiterXV]

i think i've had my fair share of assholery in this game towards just about everyone sorry about that

[JupiterXV]

ugh
well I'll vote ower if people want, but I would really prefer bella right now. If peopel can explain why they townread bella to me, that would be nice

[JupiterXV]

I don't, I just don't townread her

[JupiterXV]

i keep forgetting schadd has images, clicking on the hide tag, and getting caught so off guard

[JupiterXV]

not tring you doesn't mean i scumread you

[JupiterXV]

depending on what project claims I'll vote whatever

[JupiterXV]

that makes no sense
currently reluctant to vote project but if he claims vt i will vote him for now VOTE: bellaphant

[JupiterXV]

dannflor what are your good reasons to scumread jupiter

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: project on second thought i'm probably wrong. that's e-1, please claim

[JupiterXV]

fuck what am I doing
UNVOTE:

[JupiterXV]

i know one of (bella/python) is town but i don't know which one is.

[JupiterXV]

fuck i just
thought about it a bit there's honestly no way
ugh

[JupiterXV]

i really don't know if htis kind of logic is okay but i'm goign to go full steam ahead
titus clearly jailed doctor last night since it's unlikely doc moved off of titus
as of n7 i think the most suspectable players in my eyes were project and bella, meaning that they're the players who are mostly likely to be nightkilled, unless you take into account the fact that sky was a jail that was pretty out of left field and that titus might've jailkept someoen in the townpool again.
she couldn't have jailkept ower because ower claimed vt. she couldn't have jailkept the shiki/tired slot because that makes literally no sense. she couldn't have jailkept dann because he is the most obvtown player at the moment. and she couldn't have jailkept me, because i'm not doctor.
that leaves bella and project and unless
fuck where am I going with this. because
wait
no, she didn't jailkeep scum, she jailkept doctor
which means that scum could still be in the consensus townpool
FUCK ME oh my god
VOTE: OWER

[JupiterXV]

the most logical choice should be going OWER i think
fuck someoen tell me if i'm being crazy

[JupiterXV]

honestly logic dictates doc has to be between bella and project but the issue is both bella and project have made posts that seem like they would come from VT instead

[JupiterXV]

not logic i mean mechanics but i could just be doing this wrong

[JupiterXV]

yeah sorry I'm probably crazy here. Willing to vote project

[JupiterXV]

hi i'm here do people want me to vote project

[JupiterXV]

hi i'm here do people want me to vote project

jupiter we have an hour to deadline

what do you think the alternative is to voting project

i was just asking if you guys wanted me to vote project or not
the alternative is continuing to talk, man

[JupiterXV]

slightly creeped out by you appearing right before deadline only when we talk about possibly flash wagoning you

i literally just got home from school

[JupiterXV]

i mean flashwagon me if you want idc VOTE: jupiter
i know sure as hell that if project isnt scum i do NOT wanna go to elo

[JupiterXV]

yeah sorry I'm probably crazy here. Willing to vote project

jupiterrr why did you not hammer here

idk it didn't occur to me that this was a thing i could do and i didn't wanna get yelled at if project wasnt scum
at this point i'm just really unsure about everything lol

[JupiterXV]

i'm fine with being eliminated unless it means the game ends

[JupiterXV]

i'm fine with being eliminated unless it means the game ends

what the fuck did I mean by thhis

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: bella but im not gonna be salty if yall wanna lim me. as long as tired person can clutch a protect at night i'm willing to be today's lim

[JupiterXV]

oh, i forgot about your vt claim. i should have trusted my instinct and healed dannflor. sorry.

wow AK was hard throwing when he claimed doc then

VOTE: bella but im not gonna be salty if yall wanna lim me. as long as tired person can clutch a protect at night i'm willing to be today's lim

scum literally just shoots TP tonight and wins what are you talking about?

even in the event you're unaware that doc's can't heal themselves, why would you, as a townie, be fine with being elimmed to gamble on a 1 in 3 shot that just puts us right back in ELO?

What
I'm pretty suredocs can heal themselves

[JupiterXV]

im pretty sure this isnt throwing right

[JupiterXV]

i mean like yeah it's bella at this point but everyone scumreads me and even if i made some kind of case (which i wont because i dont have the energy to) you guys probably wouldn't believe me anyways
so really i'm just hanging out and hoping you guys make the right choice
and if you don't, well, i'm gone i guess

[JupiterXV]

also yes in the opening post of this game all the sample role pm's are posted where it specifically says "another player"

wait what i didn't know there were role PMs

[JupiterXV]

im pretty sure this isnt throwing right

fairy sure this is following normal game guidelines in which docs cannot target themselves. In which case yes this is throwing if you are town.

again though, even if docs could self-target, why are you comfortable leaving the game up to a 1 in 3 shot?

because there's nothing I can do about it if everyone decides I'm the lim target. and also I don't know why I'm still alive

[JupiterXV]

yeah no I know exactly why I'm still here. fuck I wish I got killed night 1 or somethign.

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: bella but im not gonna be salty if yall wanna lim me. as long as tired person can clutch a protect at night i'm willing to be today's lim

do you think outworlder can be scum? why or why not?

...fuckl i wasnt thinking about a world where ower is scum
it's possible but i hope it isnt.

[JupiterXV]

was i supposed to? i’ll do it in a bit. i really don’t know how exactly i feel about ower, i kind of just mindlessly shoved him in my townbin. i just didn’t consider that he could’ve been scum in this situation
i’m at school rn, can’t be on my phone, will type more later

[JupiterXV]

wdym nk bait

[JupiterXV]

oh you mean the doc claim

[JupiterXV]

yeah probably

[JupiterXV]

fffuck i typed out like two paragraphs and accidentally closed the tab

[JupiterXV]

i dont wanna type it out anymore but like the tldr ower probably town, day 2 actions obv hedgy regarding t3 but literally everyone was hedgy on day 2 about t3. i think his tunnel on project is more likely to come from town than scum. i don't see his day 8 behavior (volunteering to be hammered last-minute) coming from scum.

[JupiterXV]

What makes you confident that my Day 8 play couldn't be a bluff to gain town points, were I scum?

same reason my eod8 play doesn't come from scum

[JupiterXV]

well not exactly but you clearly gave up just like i did, you were willing to let yourself be limmed

[JupiterXV]

hi i'm alive., sorry for the inactivity ive been goin through it recently. prodge for the time being but i will be back in 2-3 hours or so to catch up and respond to things, will do things soon. welcome pookythemagicalbear

[JupiterXV]

i say "sorry for the inactivity i've been going through it" and in reality i just died and lost all my netherite gear in minecraft so i've been grinding to get it back

[JupiterXV]

sorry!!! i’m in a concert hall rn- was going to come back but got dragged off to an event without knwoing beforehand.

[JupiterXV]

i think you implied that you think it's jupiter but i am not sure if the only reason is sheeping dannflor or something else also.

mostly dannflor and nka - like why does outworldER shoot dannflor if dannflor's last words to the thread are "never kill outworldER"

like the only reason would be to lock in reads and he's worried dannflor will 180 the read again AND he is also highly sure the rest of you are too demotivated to try to overturn thread consensus.

ok yeah but why would i kill dannflor as scum im not as oblivious to NKA as to just.... openly kill sm1 who scumreads me ????? i mean maybe to make this exact argument but idfk man. (rhetorical question btw)

also posting is a pain on the ass on mobile so if i miss anything lemme know.

[JupiterXV]

pooky, i want to know what you think about jupiter in isolation.

i havent actually isoed or read jupiter in depth but the brief snippets I skimmed are all over the place and im p bad at reading people who r all over the place.


i've been thinking over and over whether it makes sense for Jupiter!scum to do some LAMIST gambit at EOD yesterday where he's like yo just vote me out i dont want to be at elo and gambling the town doesnt take him up on the gamble and I really do not know if he has the skills to pull that move there with a roomread.

what I really hate is how outworld reacted to it right there and then and said it must be coming from Town!Jupiter and then Dannflor was like hell no.

It feels like over the top TMI on outworld's part because like how do you suddenly get that lvl of surety that its not a gambit?

comparing the two of them I feel like Jupiter is

suffering

more than Outworld is and I would expect the townie in the pair to be suffering because this is not a pleasant experience if you're town to go 9 days of not knowing wtf is going on. Outworld's vibe is that he's in control and he has a plan and that feels scummy to me

i gtg guests r here lets actually play the game tonight

what’s a roomread

[JupiterXV]

high key if i were scum here i would have gone for ower or tired person instead of damn but i don’t know if that matters

[JupiterXV]

dann*

[JupiterXV]

it makes me really happy that pooky is pointing out how much this sucks to me like wow finally someone understands me

[JupiterXV]

post 3513 is really towny and now i’m at a dilemma

[JupiterXV]

ok so here's whats going on here in my wee little head since i literally dont know how to describe it otherwise
1- problem number one. if i sheep dann we never kill OWER here. i think i basically just agreed with this since idk ower's been in my townbin for ages.
2 - problem number two. bella slot is the alternative. pooky is. pretty fucking towny. idk how to put it. i think replacements are pretty good for gamestate and pooky is just. way townier than bella.
3- problem three. i basically had bella in limpool all game. like i would've been willing to vote on bella the entire time if there was a wagon.
4 - problem four. pooky brings up a good point about ower!!! but ive basically townread ower the entire game!!! and i could be wrong!!! but i could also be wrong about bella!!!!
problem five - pooky could still be scum so now im just sitting here.

tired person what do you think? ill sheep you

[JupiterXV]

In that specific instance where I was asking Black that question I got two posts confused (Project's 76 where he voiced suspicion about T3 and Project's 91 where he says he townreads T3) and as such I thought Black's post didn't make sense (since I thought she was saying that she agreed with 76 and the latter.). So that's why I asking her why she townread T3 since my dumbass got two posts confused and thought she was being inconsistent.

I'm also not sure where you're getting the impression that from 44 onwards I was hard-locked on a T3 townread

I barely mention him past that until the end of Day 1/Day 2.

i don’t think this is a good thing for your case btw

[JupiterXV]

i mean bolded part

[JupiterXV]

well i mean the reason i said i'd be ok with that was because everyone wanted to flashwagon me and i was like yeah everyones gonna wanna kill me in the day after so i dont really wanna deal with that hassle

[JupiterXV]

i know one of (bella/python) is town but i don't know which one is.

who were you trying to talk about here and what is your thought process

i was trying to use mechanics (particularly doctor mechanics and titus NK) to figure out who doc was and by extension who was mafia, particularly involving the limpool. i ended up being way over in my head though and also completely wrong.

[JupiterXV]

OMG POOKY HI

[JupiterXV]

Jupiter is some kind of clueless townie who is completely lost.

HEY

[JupiterXV]

well i mean im completely lost yeah but that feels insulting despite the fact that it's probably true

[JupiterXV]

post 3513 is really towny and now i’m at a dilemma

why is 3513 really townie

i don't know. probably because it's about bella. you answer the question but you show very clearly that you're not sure how to answer for your replacement or come up with excuses. i think maybe this is just because of my own baddish view on bella but i think if you were scum here maybe you'd try to defend yourself more.
also oops i forgot to UNVOTE:

[JupiterXV]

i think you implied that you think it's jupiter but i am not sure if the only reason is sheeping dannflor or something else also.

mostly dannflor and nka - like why does outworldER shoot dannflor if dannflor's last words to the thread are "never kill outworldER"

like the only reason would be to lock in reads and he's worried dannflor will 180 the read again AND he is also highly sure the rest of you are too demotivated to try to overturn thread consensus.

ok yeah but why would i kill dannflor as scum im not as oblivious to NKA as to just.... openly kill sm1 who scumreads me ????? i mean maybe to make this exact argument but idfk man. (rhetorical question btw)

also posting is a pain on the ass on mobile so if i miss anything lemme know.

well sure its wifom but also If you believe Dannflor is going to be gunning for you and he's clearly the loudest voice in the thread then your best bet is to shoot him at night so he doesnt live to today and push you.

sure it looks bad for you but that's just kind of the price you pay because if you leave him alive and he hardshoves you you might die from that. I dunno how much you know about dannflor's meta to know about whether he's overstating confidence or bluffing or posturing in order to manipulate the nightkill - afaik you are a total n00b to this site and have not much experience with Dannflor so you wouldn't know if you can gamble that he's lying about reads - heck I've played plenty of games with Dannflor and I don't know whether his statement about OWER is geniune belief or some kind of gambit.

im also arrogant enough in my own scumhunting abilities that I might just ignore dannflor's read on OWER but i'd feel pretty shitty if i was wrong.

the nightkill points to you because it is the easiest nightkill for you to make.

Does OWER shoot Dannflor there or does he shoot Bella or TP and go into 4p? I really dont know?

Like maybe OWER thinks dannflor is the doctor for whatever reason ???? - like I guess if OWER is mafia and he thinks there's no way afayeed knott claims doctor like the way he did AND dannflor's townread of shiki has to do with Dannflor thinking that Shiki is pretending to be doctor to shield doctor dannflor?!?!? like thats a really far out there thing. I honestly dont know. Its really wild to me that scum even made that nightkill because if Dannflor is not the doctor then he is one of the

most

likely targets for being doctored and if you shoot into a doc protect there you get completely blown out many many times.

this is my first game on this site, yeah, so the only person whose meta i'm semi-familiar with is t3 and barely so, ebcause i only saw games from him that were like... mafia variants? like they had the same style of mafia but they were when he was like 11 or something and it was like "find the assassin" and everyone sucked at mafia so it was barely real mafia

that's on tangent anyways, but yeah i guess that makes sense. honestly if i were scum here i'd be in a bad position regardless of whether i killed shiki. i think as of night 8 i probably would've gone for either OWER or tired person for the kill but i'm not sure if that matters here in this discussion. i accept suspecting me for NKA. there's not really an argument i can make here to defend myself from it, at least not one that you would believe anyways. you can do that if you want

[JupiterXV]

well i mean im completely lost yeah but that feels insulting despite the fact that it's probably true

why is it insulting

being lost is fine - to err is to be human.

everyone in this game is pretty lost since you've gone 6 days without eliminating mafia and nearly on the verge of choking away a near perfect start.

yeah, i know it shouldn't be, haha. i've just been throwing really hard this game and it's just like yeah I wish i did better, feels a bit like you're rubbing salt in the wound

[JupiterXV]

also im repsonding to ur other thingies rn

[JupiterXV]

OMG POOKY HI

hi I'm going to ask you some questions about your thought process throughout Day 8 - pls answer as best you can, if you don't remember just say that. don't make up anything if you can't think of an answer because I have a very keen sense for detecting "made up bullshit" and I recognize even town will make things up if they do not know or remember or feel the need to backwards justify a stance at some point in time.

when you made this post

i know one of (bella/python) is town but i don't know which one is.

I assume you are talking about Bella/Project.

Why did you rule out OWER as a suspect

yeah, i was talking about bella/project. i don't remember exactly why, but i was going through mechanics at the time. i ruled out OWER as a titus jailkeep (aka doctor slot) for... i don't remember what reason let me check. yeah, i worked through the logic in 3382- OWER claimed VT. roleblocking someone who claims VT doesn't work, since she's not roleblockign anythhing. in order to root out who the doctor was, you needed to figure out who titus roleblocked.
so i came to the assumption that titus didn't roleblock inside the semi-consensus townpool (which she ended up doing with TP), and rather went for people who were in the consensus limpool, me, bella, or project. i know she didn't go for me since i'm not doctor, so it had to be between bella and project, who were most likely to be scum and doctor respectively.
i ended up being wrong in the end, as it was TP, but that was kind of what was going through my head at the moment. then i ended up voting OWER because i wasn't sure who was doc, and OWER was also slip sliding into consensus limpool and could feasibly be mafia due to a) not being roleblocked b) claiming VT.

[JupiterXV]

sorry if that doesn't make sense. i'm willing to explain my though process as of those posts further if you want

[JupiterXV]

I don't understand how this means you rule out OWER as a mafia

i didnt rule him out lol i literally voted him

[JupiterXV]

i just ruled him out as doctor

[JupiterXV]

i know one of (bella/python) is town but i don't know which one is.

i think what i was trying to say with this is one of bella/python is MECHANICALLY CONFIRMED TOWN

[JupiterXV]

i know one of (bella/python) is town but i don't know which one is.

i think what i was trying to say with this is one of bella/python is MECHANICALLY CONFIRMED TOWN

ok that makes a lot more sense to me now

ok cool beans, do you have any more questions

[JupiterXV]

wait it's not my first game, I keep forgetting that I played a game here years ago. I'm not a liar I just forgot this time

[JupiterXV]

the way you appeal to Jupiter to vote for TP

wait when did this happen
pedit: oh yeah that happened

[JupiterXV]

VOTE: OWER it's not pooky at this point

[JupiterXV]

but i'm town...

[JupiterXV]

wait but if I'm scum here and I target OWER n1, doesn't that mean I know that OWER isn't doc???
wait maybe I don't, I don't know

[JupiterXV]

i had an idea and then tried to figure out what it meant, but it makes literally no sense even to me

[JupiterXV]

what was ur idea

if i'm acum and i target ower night one and you protect him and then he slips doc, doesnt that mean i know for a fact that he isn't doc because there's no way he self-prots night one? but also i literally didnt know doctors couldn't self target and also i did believe owers claim so doesnt that mean i can't be the one who killed dann?

[JupiterXV]

i don't understand my own logic here

[JupiterXV]

but wouldn't I be able to rule out who doc was and shoot them?

[JupiterXV]

if i'm scum you protect ower i know ower isn't doc, i know bella isn't doc because she got self-sacrificial, that puts it between TP and dann and afrayyed actually claimed doc so i would know you're doc earlier on i think. but earlier on i thought doc was between dann/project so i cant be scum because.... i don't actually know why this rules me out as scum

[JupiterXV]

am i doing these mechanics things right?

[JupiterXV]

if i'm scum isn't the optimal choice to kill tired person here?

[JupiterXV]

oh right that's where i was going. maybe i'm stupid and my confidence is misplaced, but night kill can't be me since i would know who doctor is and i would shoot tired person over dann

[JupiterXV]

oh right that's where i was going. maybe i'm stupid and my confidence is misplaced, but night kill can't be me since i would know who doctor is and i would shoot tired person over dann

ok but you thought doctor could self protect so the logic doesnt really work

that's true haha
i'm going to be honest i'm just trying to defend myself here, i get it's kind of bad and the logic is stretched very thin and i don't think there's a way i can exactly convince people because it's like well how do I know what the scum night actions are lol
but quick counterpoint: what does TP gain from self-protecting? if i'm scum and everyone else is town, tp doesn't know i know that they're doctor. they just think that i think ower is doctor, so they put the protect on ower because ower is night kill baiting.

but idk i wouldnt know

[JupiterXV]

i only thought of this defense just yesterday and logged off and forgot about it so i dunno how good it is or if it like makes sense at all

[JupiterXV]

by the way, Black, could you send me the links to some of your past scumgames? you dont have to but i'd greatly appreciate it, even one is fine

Open 885

Newbie 2116

These are my two most recently completed scum games. There's one in between these but I had to replace out halfway through due to some unfortunate IRL stuffs

thank you

did you actually read these?

if you did - what conclusions did you draw

i'm pretty sure i talked about them. i skimmed 2116 and i commented that black seemed more aggressive there than she did in this game iirc ? i can't particularly remember

[JupiterXV]

Generally I think if it comes down to nothing else Titus is probably more likely to be scum than town because there's been nothing else to give me the impression that she's towny ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯

I think my scumlean on shadow's grown a bit into a scumread mostly just cause I've gotten more suspicious of them btu also they're not here to defend themself

I also think I'm gonna gently let go of my null-scum read on Black. I think that reaction she made to one of my posts (#282 iirc) was pretty towny and I skimmed a bit through her scumgame (Newbie 2116) and there seems to be this very distinct tonal difference? Obviously the posts are same but I'm getting different vibes from Black in her scumgame and black here. Like it's same kind of content being pushed out but this Black seems more contributive and generally more towny while that Black is a bit more argumentative and blunt.

[JupiterXV]

found it

[JupiterXV]

obviously i ended up being wrong since afrayed (iirc?) found another scumgame (the one that black omitted) that was very similar to this one and black ended up flipping scum anyways

[JupiterXV]

i did think dann was the doctor last night actually