First to start, I'm giving everyone points to access my reads. Positive points is towniness, negative is scumminess. Knowing what we know now, as I'm rereading Page 1, I'm curious. Everybody was so quick to sheep the idea of passing fruit to the person below them, I'm bound to think scum is in there. Especially before Hayato said anything.
Don_Johnson begins the post by saying basically "there must be a good idea somewhere, I just need to step back and see if I can figure it out." I don't get the benefit of posting that, and if Don_Johnson turns out to be scum, and this was a fluff / filler post, I wouldn't be surprised to see an interesting team between TSO and him. Especially with TSO's joke post of "fruit, what fruit?"
Post 5 and
Post 7 respectively.
Math comes up with the plan to send the fruit to the person below them. I'm basically WIFOMing here, but as scum I can see Math doing this if they speculated on the fact that two mafia were next to each other on the list. What's more likely though, is Math as town thought this would be the perfect way to break this system and find out who scum is.
So far we have TSO and Don_Johnson with -1 points. Math with 1. Everyone else 0.
The Bulge has nothing to add, but it's RVS so that's suspected. I don't like InnocentVillager adding townie points to that post, as I can't see how you can possibly attribute town or scum tells to RVS posts with no actual content. Sounds like opportunistic scum, trying to buddy by giving away free townie points. Along with InnocentVillagers town slip that I feel was faked, the idea of mafia sending fruit and killing, makes me believe that Math isn't mafia, and that the idea of being able to break the system scared scum InnocentVillager. He now has -2 points for both of the points against him.
Post 9 is the post I was referring to.
Math's response to IV's attempt at discrediting the case is townie as well, stopping others form speculating on false reasoning. That's a point for Math. TSO sheeping in
Post 11 is nerve-racking, but is null in general. I wouldn't attribute scum points to that. In fact I'd probably attribute town to it, because of TSO's lack of fear with that idea. Siv's following post however, makes my ears pop up. In
Post 12 Siv points out that it "only gets rid of a nightkill" as if it wasn't good enough? Then he "still thinks" doing the fruit-circle on two nights is the optimal strategy. He's discussing this, like he's ALREADY discussed it before. He then sheeps a TSO vote (I'm sure for RVS reasons) which further confirms my idea that TSO could be town. The only way Siv could have talked about this before, is during the pre-game confirmation period... which would make him scum. Slip?
TSO and Don_Johnson continuing talking to each other, semi-ignoring everyone else (noted for buddying up, potential partners depending on the flip of one or the other. See posts 13-15). The Bulge again provides needless content, pointing out the over-obvious. Now I'm taking note that The Bulge is actively not contributing, while appearing to be.
In this post, Siv looks to attribute dispair to the idea of preventing two night kills at night (why is Siv actively trying to down that idea, like it's a bad thing?) and then talks about "shutting up about it" because it's "taking up space needlessly." Normally that would be a town thing to do, if there are several pages just regarding beating the set-up and it's stopping or detracting from normal town conversation. However, being as it's been less than 24 hours, and you're only on page 1, while most people haven't even contributed yet... this seems opportunistic, or almost faking it to appear town. He wasn't stopping a distraction from becoming bigger, he was appearing to. Then the whole "I have no idea how to win in the day" thing freaks me out. Isn't that the point of Mafia? Figuring out who's scum, actively pushing people during the day phases and lynching scum? If you can't win in the day, you must win at night... which at night, in this game, that'd be the scum that would be prominent. Not town. Another slip?
Don posts with a vote on InnocentVillager, but then Siveure sheeps the vote. With my primary suspicions on Siveure, it makes it clear one or the other is scum, not both. Either IV is, or Siv is. The sheep vote for RVS is starting a wagon, and I don't like it.
Here's where Hayato finally enters the game! I don't like the sheep vote on IV either, but then Hayato makes probably the most town post of Page 1. Hayato is the only person to have brought up the idea of breaking the system actually backfiring if scum are together
here. I like how Hayato doesn't shut down the idea but rather states we should "think about this some more" which is obviously referring to the obvious sheepers of the plan.
The Bulge's response to it in
post 25 is townie. He explains even if that does happen, we expose that someone is lying. If they get lynched, and flip scum, we've successfully found the other scum partner by association. It's basically a 2 for 1.
I really disliked Hayato's idea (which makes me wonder if Hayato is posting without actually thinking about what Hayato was saying, which is a town-tell IMO, scum would be more careful), but although I think Hayato spoke without thinking, what I dislike more is the quick sheeping by TSO and the Bulge.
Aronis finally makes his first appearance all game, sheeping the obvious wagon from the last two posts before his, Hayato. However instead of actually addressing what Hayato said, Aronis sums up the case in a completely misrepresenting way, and justifies his vote there with the misrepped case. Look at
post 35 for more information.
I'm stopping real quick at Post 36 (Bulge's post) to say an idea. What if we had opposite days? Where like Day 1 it's give a fruit to the person below you, and Day 2 it's give fruit to the person above you? Nevermind, now that I think about it the concept would be pointless because the other mafia member would do the killing and the person above them would fake claim that they received the fruit from their partner. Continuing...
I don't get the back and forth between Hayato and Aronis. I'm not sure Hayato's point there, nor am I clear why Aronis is assuming everyone would be dead after two nights of no killing. However Aronis' confusion in
post 39 reads genuine to me. Townie points awarded for that.
Siv, as scum, would make a good point to try and stop this idea of breaking the setup and stopping their team two nights in a row from killing. And there it is, hidden under the blanket of "uncertainty" and random questions that really don't support anything...
post 43.
I also noticed the sort of buddying that Siv is doing with Hayato (and appears to be working) while voting on the Bulge, the easiest to wagon (in my opinion) of the people that voted on Hayato.
Hayato and TSO are bouncing back opinions on strategy, which makes sense. TSO is the type of person from my Meta with him and the games I've played, TSO will vote someone out of pure frustration. Happens often actually. What's interesting to note though, is that while this is happening, Siv again buddies up to Hayate by defending Hayate. What's interesting, and I hope someone addresses this, is that Siv says the Bulge's vote was "most suspicious." Why? I wonder if Siv will go on to address this or not, or if anyone calls him out on it. (Check out post 51, just scroll up from the link below this.)
Post 53 is the first place where Siv took on the idea that the plan was his too, (the entire towns) and not just a few select others in the town. Yet earlier, he pushes that Hayato's plan was good too, and voted others who didn't like that opinion (Bulge). The Bulge makes an excellent point in proving Siv's own bias and hypocriticalness in post 54, right below Siv's.
Hayate's vote on the Bulge
here kind of shows Hayate getting played by Siv, and Siv's buddying is working. Meanwhile, I have no idea why scum would ever admit to a terrible play like TSO did
here, so that's more townie points from my POV.
The Bulge points out the language in post 59, "furthering my plan" as for a reason for voting him, yet doesn't realize that language came from Siv. Bulge doesn't realize Siv is playing Hayate like a violin right now, neither does Hayate. However in post 60, Bulge makes an appeal to the inactive in the game, to get conversation going. Sounds like an actual town motivated post to me. You can
click here to see the posts in question.
Everything about Siv's
post 62 screams fake. The case on Bulge is off centered, and stretching, and the post to Hayate that he quoted is ridiculously fake. "I can't see what's wrong right now, dangitt!!!!! I totes need to go more in depth and take some more time to realize what's going on,
because I'm not actually reading.... just posting to make myself look active, while buddying up to you.
" (Emphasis and exaggeration mine.)
Siv and Bulge take time bickering between Siv's hypocriticalness and Bulge's confusion for why he's being voted in the first place. Aronis unvotes in the meantime. Aronis' playstyle reminds me of lazy town, who's looking to sheep the best made case. Not really like scum, trying to mislynch.
Math comes out and nails it perfectly, stupidity does not equal scum. While I think stupid was a harsh word to use for speaking before you think, it gets the point across. Check it:
here. I'm not going to lie though, reading through all of this and seeing Bulge's conclusion
here made me face palm.
Don_Johnson does nothing to help him appear town with
this post. Voting math for no reason, yet makes it appear like the wagon is a thing. Hayato during the mean time, proves my point of Hayato sheeping Siv, and Siv actually leading the case against Bulge
here.
Siv's
post 80 is again buddying up to Hayato, while turning around and making a pretty pathetic case to sheep the other votes on Math. My guess is Siv saw the Don_Johnson post voting Math, and decided to go with it, in the back of Siv's mind seeing Math as the next leading wagon. And of course if you scroll down slightly, in post 82, there goes Hayato wagging his tail and following Siv.
Watch Siv's response to Hayato asking his master why Bulge is no longer scum:
here. confbias? Really? There didn't appear to be any confbias there, but rather an OMGUS vote off of somebody he was buddying. In fact, an ADMITTED OMGUS vote off of somebody else.
Aronis also is confirming my point with post 86, that Aronis isn't really reading the thread. It had already been decided that we were going with the fruit plan #1 proposed by Math. Math's post on InnocentVillager at this point would be the best vote I would have agreed with. Comparitively, no other person was nearly as scummy next to Siv than Innocent Villager. Don quickly invalidates Math's post, for no reason (literally, says nothing) but to invalidate Math's opinion. (Where's the town motivation in that post, found
here?
Don's scummy level is increasing rapidly. Aeronaut has still not posted and is replaced with Bins at this point. Bins makes a good post
here while catching up. Hayato's sheeping is weird, but is not unprecendented when you realize Siv's manipulation and buddying up to Hayato.
Innocentvillager did a good job of explaining himself and posting back
here which made me lose a lot of my suspicion on him. At this point, Marcrell and Ashura have both been replaced by Fitz and FormerFish respectively. Neither has posted, so neither really have much opinions on them.
Notice here, the distancing between Siv and "the plan" which a few posts before this Siv was all about claiming was "our plan"...
here. Siv jumps back on the Bulge for no reason more than he looks weird / scummy to him, with no real reasoning.
I'm not going to lie, when Fitz came in and placed a vote on Siv, and Siv's casual "why me?" response.. I got excited. You can check that out
here. My townie sense is tingling with Fitz.
Siv starts pushing TSO to wagon with him for Bulge, and when asked by Aronis why, Siv gives the most WIFOM filled answer possible. "Everything looks like it could come from scum" while not including the obvious, "everything ALSO looks like it could come from town-Bulge."
Bulge makes an OMGUS vote, though it's understandable when Siv is able to manipulate and buddy up to enough people, that they start sheeping his vote. Bulge makes a vote here, probably (my speculation) to push the gravity of the bad case against him. TSO seems genuinely interested in a case against Siv, which shows thought and consideration. That's town points for me, since I have a good understanding of Scum-TSO and that's not him.
Make note here, that Don still is doing nothing during post 122, and is the first time Don is really adressing Siv, or the idea of Siv being scum. This post screams "I don't want to buss, but I will if I have to." It's interesting that he immediately buddies up to Fitz, which if I'm correct, is the person that just called his potential scum partner out for being scummy. Good idea to get the new replacement on your side. If they think you're town and read your posts with confbias, you might get away from any suspicions.
Siv's response to Bulge's case (which was fairly good IMO based on the information revealed) is to invalidate the Bulge, and to redirect the questioning to Hayate. "Hey Bulge, is Hayate still scum?"
Look Here. I bet if Bulge would have pushed Hayate as scum, Siv would have been there to back him up ASAP.
Fish's second post is on the theory of the game. First was that Fish didn't read the game yet. Fish is null at this point (Post 127). What's interesting is Siv's fake response to it. Siv pushes the idea of "woah there's another one?!?!?!"
here and then
5 minutes later...
comes back and talks about it. So Siv was able to search for the game, find the game, read through the game, makes his assessment, then post it here all in... 5 minnutes? I find that rather hard to believe. Then the following post to that one, Siv again tries to invalidate Bulge by using confbias as an excuse to why his posts look scummy. Probably to Fish, who hasn't read the game yet by his own admission... another manipulation technique? (Buddying)
Bins post about her experience with the other game reading through it looks much more legit. And seeing her give that time dedication to making that assumption earned townie points for me. Also, compare her post
here to Siv's "wonderful recap" of the game a few posts before it. See a difference? Perhaps one person giving more attentiveness to it? Yeah, me too...
Speaking of Siv,
here Siv is trying really hard to invalidate Bulge falsly, pushing the fact that Bulge is scum... perhaps to try and invalidate the nicely made case Bulge made against Siv earlier? Then Siv completely shuts down conversation with Bulge trying to actually inquire about his case
here.
The Fitz and Bins discussion on town Bulge seems genuine, they both have townie points from me. I especially liked Fish's entrance after the discussion, it looked like Fish genuinely was reading through the game. Aronis' hesitation to jump on the Siv wagon is something definitely to take notice of,
here.
Bins isn't nearly as townie as Fitz is in my book yet, mostly due to a lack of posting. But she's definitely getting there, though I don't know how to view her vote on Siv
here. It could easily read as bussing, should suspicion come onto Bins later. I'll definitely keep this for notes.
Siv's posts a few before
this one and especially including that one, screams deflection to me. Also, Fitz, I hope you didn't forget about
this post. I am not sure if Don ever answered you, but if not, this is something we definitely need to follow up on. Especially with Don's post
here, screams scum trying NOT to buss their buddy. It's funny how Don asks what the case is, yet Bulge made a case that Don addressed earlier as interesting if it's true, yet never commented on it up until this point. Then asked what the case is on Siv... really Don? I can't help but think you're trying really hard not to buss your partner here.
Siv's push
here screams nothing more than "hey I did a town slip! Wait no, hey wait, it's a town slip, let's not let this go! I'm going to post it again to make sure everyone sees it!" Fitz and everyone else should read
this post and the following few while Siv takes personal offense to Fitz calling out Hayate for sheeping Siv everywhere. Why would this take place? Unless Siv was purposefully manipulating and buddying up to Hayate and didn't want that called out and Siv exposed. If Hayate turns on Siv, Siv could be left alone without anyone to defend him and with his partner (probably Don_Johnson) already looking like he's willing to buss him if absolutely necessary, Siv wants whatever partners he could get to defend him.
I hate the Math suspicion starting to grow on Page 10. It's off of faulty logic coming from a guy (Math) who had a different view of game theory than us. It sounds more like a new mistake than it does a purposeful scum plan. Also notice on page 11, the absolutely lack of talk concerning Siv from Don
here after his repetative talk of "good case Bulge" and "what's the case on Siv" then it becomes.. nothing. No mention of Siv. In fact, it becomes a counter wagon case on Math who everyone already is starting to look at. How is this not perfect scum deflection from his partner?
Siv's "come back to life" drama that was played near the end of Page 11 does not fool me one bit. More manipulation to start Page 12 with
this crap while Siv is trying to use reverse psychology on those in the game. I see during Page 12, Bins has successfully been manipulated and buddied up to enough by Siv that she's now sheeping him as well. There it is! The manipulation from Siv toward Hayato, I told you it'd happen soon enough where Siv would turn against Hayato. But remember, Hayato turned against Siv first and doubted Siv, so now Siv is trying to cast suspicions on Hayato
here. Rather faulty too.
Alright after 13 pages and seeing the inactivity / lack of effort shown by the few in this game who didn't care to give it the attention it deserved, I can completely see Fitz' town frustation
here.. Although I will admit, the Bulge's post
here caught me completely off guard. Where the hell did TSO come from to become your vote?
Page 14 comes along... and you have a pointless discussion about Sundays and (ironically, we're back to the same game theory discussion that Siv was so adamant against during Page 1) it's between Siv and Math! The irony! (This is not really role-related, though it is quite the coincidence... and kinda confirms that perhaps Siv said that for townie points, not actually because that was his motivation.)
Fitz, you asked how I felt about Aronis and Fish's reasonings against me
here yet did not give a reason yourself for voting me. You basically said "if I can't get this lynch off, so be it. I'll go after you just because!" And that's how I took it. So maybe you can understand where I was coming from, I didn't honestly realize the game state during that moment. As far as Aronis and Fish's reasonings, Aronis hasn't been giving really any reasons to vote anyone other than lazy town answers. Sheeping people, seeing where the best direction is, etc. Fish's reasons were fighting between myself and Siv, because the way the sheeping was working, the way I see it, there has to be scum between one of us. And I agree with it to be honest. I just think because of Siv's masterful manipulation and the luck of the draw with inactivity and replacements, I think Siv has been able to wiggle out of the spot light. At least, before this post.
Now I'm at the point where Iceguy replaces innocentvillager. Iceguy has quite the task on his hands. If it wasn't for the associative pair of Don_Johnson and Siv, I'd be voting him. And damnitt, Ice did the opposite
here. He provoked more suspicion in my eyes, should Siv flip town, onto himself. I hated the whole "this day needs to end right now", however true it is, expressing the apathy toward this game. While my wagon was weak, I disagree that I'd call it bullshit and dismiss it the way he did without prior knowledge of my alignment. In fact, I'd be somewhat suspicious of Hayate, depending on Siv's flip to be frank. But the thing that killed me, was the overly opportunistic vote on Math, which kinda proved to me he didn't really read the game as well as he did. Well that and the Siv accusation.
Ice picked the worst example to explain Siv being scum, out of everything Siv did, to cling to. I wonder if Ice read the game closely, or if he skimmed... I actually liked Bins
here as she makes a point that no one has actually made any valid points or cases against Math. Don's back and forth with Math looks terrible for Don, because Don is trying so hard to grasp at straws. Siv also finally has a reason after that to cast suspicion on his partner, Don
here. And then?
This gem comes out... how do you forget Bulge when he literally pushed you for 2 weeks about how scummy you are and wanted your lynch? And in 2-3 days you suddenly forget?
Fish is looking better and better as I read through Page 16. Meanwhile Siv looks worse and worse.
Here Siv states he's being opportunistic with his vote on Math (why? And what town-motivation is in that?) and then when voting for Don, clings to the fact that Don is lazy? What a terrible case, but it would make complete sense that he has to come up with something in case Don's wagon takes off and he has to buss his partner... Math points this out actually later on through this page, and exposes Siv also. Also:
this post doesn't shock me at all Bins...
Here is Siv's answer when asked his opinion on me or Ice (remember, I took over the Hayate slot, that Siv tried really hard to cast suspicion on earlier)...
Click Me!!! Fitz asked for suspicions on me, Siv's response "Not. At. All." Literally. What a big jump. Also take a look through Page 17... once again, Don is there, Siv is there, and not a SINGLE COMMUNICATION is made between the two. Over and over and over again, throughout this entire game, there's been distancing between Don and Siv. Except for the "my top suspects are X, Y, and Don/Siv." Yet they don't talk to each other? How the hell is this possible?
Look back through it and tell me, can you find an actual conversation between the two? Anywhere?!?!?!? Bueller? BUELLER?! Wait maybe it changes...
*reads through Page 18 where both Don and Siv are posting*
Nope!
*reads what page of 19 we have currently*
Wait! Siv made a comment to Don about no kills! Finally Siv actually addressed Don without calling him one of his top suspects. Can we end this game now?
First to be lynched: Siveure DtTrikyp
Next in line to be lynched: Don_Johnson.
If for some reason I'm wrong: IceGuy. (But doubt it.)
My full reads list since I'm probably not going to die tonight anyway... (From towniest to Scum)
Math - 2
The Bulge - 2
HavingFitz - 2
Aronis - 1
Bins - 1
TSO - 1 - Buddied by Don Johnson
Everyone Else - 0
InnocentVillager -1
Don_Johnson -2 Buddied the hell out of TSO, is not talking to Siv at all, and is not actively hunting scum.
Siveure - 5
Ignore the numbers and notes next to the names, it was for my own record.