Hypothesis: After losing their second buddy, scum had some idea of most likely mislynch targets to narrow down the numbers from 8-1 town-scum to 1-1. Assuming that the doctor never successfully protected, scum had to budget for needing three mislynches and four nightkills to save the game (as town likely no-lynches on either Day 5 or 6 if they haven't already won by that point).
As of scrambles's flip, I think the most likely mislynch targets were probably among the group (Amy, acryon, CKD). Maybe I'd be in there as well but not sure. Anyway - when I've been scum in this position, my instinct has been to push quite hard to get the easier lynches out of the way quickly, so I'm inclined to think that the scum in this game is more likely to push to lynch one of them pretty early on in Day 4.
A nightkill on Kalimar came first, though, and I do want to look into that a bit. Toby was widely townread so would have been a tough sell as a mislynch but I figured I'd better check Kalimar's reads in his brief time in this game to see if there was a particularly good reason for any player to want him dead sooner rather than later.
So: Kalimar
doubted that either acryon or Amy would make a plausible partner for scrambles. He somewhat favoured a lynch on me as of
here and had some paranoia of Titus and farside. And that's basically it (his highest suspect, Amy, would have pretty much disappeared after scrambles's flip). So, if the scum was *not* doc-hunting with this shot, killing Kalimar would somewhat benefit a) a scum who wanted to pursue an acryon or Amy lynch on Day 4 and/or b) scum!Titus or scum!farside. However, I mostly agree with GC
here that the main motivation in the nightkill was to get rid of one of the least viable mislynch targets.
Early on Day 4,
Riddleton votes CKD but fairly strongly speaks out against the possibility of acryon being scum. If he's scum, that's a way to make things difficult for yourself but I suppose that I wouldn't rule out Riddleton doing that.
farside, meanwhile, gets stuck on in acryon.
GC leans away from suspicion on me, seems happy enough to ignore acryon but leaves his options pretty open for revisiting him later, and lists Amy and CKD in his three people on whom to focus. Of the three, farside is marginally the best fit for the theory, but nothing clear-cut yet.
GC then gets townpoints for finding reasonably solid reasons for townreading both acryon and Amy, as well as continuing to back up a growing townread on me. If he's scum, CKD is the easiest mislynch for which he's positioning himself at this point. Not impossible, but doing it the hard way.
Riddleton then unvotes CKD after a nonspecific reread and backs away from the vote. Again, if he's scum, he's making this tough. He's certainly not in a position to career from this into an acryon vote.
Honestly, around page 71, I'm rereading much of GC's case on farside for the first time (yes, we've finally hit the game that actually drove me to read wallposts) and I'm liking a lot of it.
He does end up with a list of remaining lynch candidates that reads Amy, acryon, CKD, farside, so that's a little bit of a problem given the above theory, but farside is at the head of it and he's approaching that vote with the same rigour as his excellent scrambles case. I'm just... I'm just not really feeling GC as scum. It's so hard to engage with that as a serious possibility given his consistent, thorough, effective approach to this game.
tl;dr
Of the remaining people whom I think have a chance of being scum, farside again looks the worst based on her start to Day 4 and I really can't see myself voting for GC any time soon either. Honestly, this game feels a lot easier once I stopped taking it as gospel that Beli's early vote on farside was an immutable towntell for her.
