Mini 1701 - Modified Werewolf 13er


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Post Post #1314 (isolation #200) » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:51 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Fake aggression ^^^

Boon, I really don't like that hammer.
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Post Post #1316 (isolation #201) » Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:55 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1310, Kmd4390 wrote:
I'm curious if you still feel this way 5 days to deadline. What about when it's 3? 1? Can you remind me what your stance is on TonyMontana, absta, and Zoro?

Not that it matters but I was not leaving my wagon. I was leaning town on Tony due to his early D2 posting - I'm not so sure now as I liked one of Absta's recent posts.

I am leaning town on Absta - I explained this in a recent post when I ISO'ed him. I saw some things that could be scum and some that could be town; town posting outweighed the scum posting.

Zoro I feel is also town - mostly due to his posting outside of his interactions with Banakai. His posting has been pretty solid and his recent string of posting (after looking like an inevitable lynch) has strengthened my read on him flipping town.
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Post Post #1326 (isolation #202) » Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:16 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1321, redFF wrote:but i think absta's hop on it reeks of opportunistic scum, same with his hop on the banakai wagon day 1, except that was a bus

vote:absta

Yeah, just interpret the same action/situation in two completely different ways for no reason other than to suit the narrative you're trying to push.

In post 1322, RedCoyote wrote:I'm going to scrap the idea of trying to read based on who townread Banakai because I think that path just leads us to BBT.

I'm sorry, what? I was town reading Banakai?
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Post Post #1327 (isolation #203) » Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:16 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Forgot this;

VOTE: Redff
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #204) » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:49 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1328, redFF wrote:
i could vote bulb today but im weary of getting on an RC-made wagon after yesterdays flip

absta or tony are good lynches today

What does RC being wrong have to do with it? You obviously felt the case against Zoro was good enough to jump on that wagon.

Why are Tony and Absta good lynches?

In post 1333, absta101 wrote:
The way I see it, scum is in Tony, Redff and RC. The former two are stronger reads atm.

This isn't a bad scum pool at all.

In post 1339, TonyMontana wrote:
I already stated that I wasn't backing off redFF.

Cool, I look forward to seeing your vote being placed on him. Who cares if Boon hammers your scum read?

In post 1343, redFF wrote:
unvote

Why?

In post 1345, Bulbazoor wrote:Y the way things went, I would lynch red or tony. Add bbt.

Oh, really? Can you explain those reads?
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Post Post #1352 (isolation #205) » Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:24 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

No, I don't get it.

To clarify; you're worried about your scum read getting hammered...right?
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Post Post #1361 (isolation #206) » Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:29 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Keyser, pre-flip associatives are pretty bad.

Tony, yes. I would like nothing more than for the next two posts to be naked votes on Redff and then for Boon to come in and hammer. That would be just fantastic.
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Post Post #1363 (isolation #207) » Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:36 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Updated reads please Boon?
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Post Post #1370 (isolation #208) » Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:58 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Doctor, you should post something note worthy.
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #209) » Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:04 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Prodge.

Will get to this later today.
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Post Post #1429 (isolation #210) » Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:29 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1398, RedCoyote wrote:
That wasn't as strong of a point as it seemed at the time when Kmd made it. I also still think KS is town. It just to happens, possibly, that the scum laid off the wagon. Perhaps because they were already in the tank for townZoro? This points to Bulba as scum and you cannot deny this, absta.

How does this tie in with your reasoning from yesterday? You're using the same situation and then interpreting it in two different ways so that it fits the narrative you're pushing.

Yesterday, you argued that if Zoro was town that scum would want to get onto that wagon - I agree that it would have been an easy wagon for scum to join given how 3 'obv-town' were pushing it. However, you're now changing that to 'Scum were town reading Zoro and that's why they didn't join wagon. Why has this changed? Is it based purely on a 'Bulba is scum' perspective because that's what it feels like.

How do you feel about the late votes on the Zoro wagon? I'm wondering why they haven't attracted your attention after yesterday's comments.

PEdit - Boon, how about those reads?
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Post Post #1430 (isolation #211) » Mon Aug 24, 2015 5:39 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1402, RedCoyote wrote:Look, we cannot decide between absta and redFF today. Let's table these players for tomorrow and focus instead on Bulba. Why should we focus on Bulba, you may ask. It's primarily because of the way he acted toward the Zoro wagon. He was supposedly so passionate about Zoro being town, and yet he never tried to seriously stop it. He let his vote linger uselessly on TM while Zoro was reaching a fever pitch, completely uninterested in looking at alternatives. This doesn't add up.

This is actually a decent point. I don't see why that takes precedence over lynching Redff though.

In post 1402, RedCoyote wrote:absta, I know you are strongly skeptical of me being town, I've got to reach out to you and get you to go with me on this one. I'm not doing this on behalf of redFF or you. I don't want either of you lynched today.

RC, what is your opinion on Redff/Absta? I don't like you 'shelving' this until later in the game.

In post 1404, Boonskiies wrote:Bulb town told to me earlier in this game.

He did?

In post 1405, RedCoyote wrote:absta, again, I want to table you and redFF during this phase. We don't need to get to this today. We're too torn on you two. It probably won't get done either way.

Bulba was likely the person that bussed Banakai. If there was just one. I'm starting to think that DW may have been right about the idea that Banakai hammered himself out of frustration with his team rather than strategy (this also speaks to Bulba as scum and you cannot deny this). I'll go back and look for some evidence of this. You're starting to open to the idea, right?

Tell me RC, what is the motivation behind shelving a major issue until later in the game? These things need sorting out sooner rather than later. I don't understand your take on this at all.

In post 1408, Keyser Söze wrote:
VOTE: absta101 - it is not a very strong scum-read, but currently my strongest scum-read from my 'uncomfortable' list.

This is a weak vote. I think KS' attack on Absta was weak to begin with - I don't like this at all.

In post 1410, redFF wrote:
u pushed an easy lynch yesterday with zoronos and are pushing an easy lynch today with bulb

Sorry, what? You're now criticizing a wagon that not only did you join but said there was a 'good case' for it. Can we please, please, please fucking lynch this.

In post 1417, Bulbazoor wrote:Prodded. I think tony is our best bet.

Why?

In post 1418, Bulbazoor wrote:I do not like redcpyote so far.

Why?
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Post Post #1432 (isolation #212) » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:44 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1431, RedCoyote wrote:
I wasn't purposefully trying to lynch town yesterday. I thought scum were trying to avoid the wagon because Zoro was scum, but since he obviously wasn't, it's clear that they were avoiding the wagon for another reason. My next best guess is the reason they were avoiding the wagon is because they had pronounced townreads on him. I think if we follow that logic, Bulba is your best candidate. Not the other way around. I'm not starting at Bulba as scum and looking for connections, I'm starting at who townread Zoro and connecting that to Bulba.

Or one of them were already on the Zoro wagon...

Like I said, even if scum had pronounced they were town reading Zoro, given the game-state and the players who were pushing Zoro it would have been pretty easy for them to switch, no?

In post 1431, RedCoyote wrote:
BBT 1429 wrote:How do you feel about the late votes on the Zoro wagon? I'm wondering why they haven't attracted your attention after yesterday's comments.

You mean Boon? I think he needs to replace out. I don't think he's helping the town. I don't think that slot is as town as everyone else makes it to be, but I think he's still on my town side.

I mean Boon, Absta and Redff.

In post 1431, RedCoyote wrote:
I think it's possible that one of them is scum and the other isn't, but I have trouble distinguishing which. Further, it's possible that they're both town, too. I don't think they're both scum and would bet the game on that, however. If I thought that was a possibility, I would be right there with you.

If I had to guess, redFF would probably be my scum pick at this point.

Great, we're finally getting somewhere. If you're struggling to distinguish between the two of them, I would think you would want to sort this out sooner rather than later. I can't wrap my head around your thinking here.
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Post Post #1438 (isolation #213) » Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:04 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

You have to vote to lynch scum Tony.

Thoughts on the current game state?
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Post Post #1455 (isolation #214) » Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:31 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Bulba, what do you think about RC voting you and his reasons for doing so?

Who are your top scum reads and why?

I previously questioned two reads that you stated - can you answer those please?
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #215) » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:35 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

This game is becoming frustrating now. Whoever is town in the big group of 'We like doing fuck all' can you knock it off and start contributing? I would place Boon, Bulba, Doctor, Keyser and Redff in this group.

I'm becoming increasingly confident that both scum are in that group. I also still like Boon for town so that's 4 to choose from. I like those odds.
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Post Post #1465 (isolation #216) » Wed Aug 26, 2015 4:46 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

VOTE: Bulba
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Post Post #1488 (isolation #217) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 6:03 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

VOTE: Bulba

I think RC had a guilty.
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Post Post #1491 (isolation #218) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:14 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

He mentioned multiple times that he echoed my sentiment of not being able to read Bulba over the first few days and then yesterday he seemed so sure of himself.

Who better to investigate than someone you can't read?
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Post Post #1492 (isolation #219) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:15 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Also, I don't see Scum!Who claiming Angel like that - I think Who is town.

I think it's Bulba/Redff.
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Post Post #1494 (isolation #220) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:23 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Yeah, if Bulba flips scum I'm 100% lynching Redff.

Although, I'm becoming increasingly suspicious of Keyser.
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Post Post #1499 (isolation #221) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:09 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1495, Bulbazoor wrote:BBT at this point, I doubt he had a guilty. If he did, why not out it straight out. Anyway, I think it is bbt/redff with a hint of tony in it. Real angel should out since we need a clear to lead us today.

Why would he out himself if he thought he could get you lynched without doing so?

Can you explain any of your scum reads?

In post 1496, redFF wrote:
why dude

Why are you voting Bulba?

In post 1498, TonyMontana wrote:Ugh, I just realized that I possibly called out RC on a seer-slip, when I questioned that he said we would have 4 clears if the Angel claimed. Obviously
he
would have 4 clears..

I do think this is yet more evidence that he had 2 clears yesterday. Also possibly 2 alive clears.

I maintain that I think he had a guilty on Bulba. Look at his read progression on Bulba during D1 and D2 and then the sudden change on D3. The only way it makes sense is if he got a guilty on him. Bulba makes sense for RC to investigate as he openly stated he couldn't read him more than once.
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Post Post #1500 (isolation #222) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:18 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Hmm, I just had another read if RCs ISO regarding Bulba and my memory seems to have magnified his issues with Bulba - he only stated he couldn't read him/was getting frustrated with him 3 times, which is still a decent amount. However, towards the middle/end of D2 he starts to become suspicious of Bulba. Again, I think this points towards RC being likely to investigate Bulba.

I also noticed a couple of other things;
In post 1445, RedCoyote wrote:You know, now that I put all the pieces together about all the players, I'm pretty convinced that the last two scum are in {redFF, Bulba and absta} anyway.

Here is RC's lynch pool - if he did get two clears and not a guilty on Bulba we know that the clears are not in this pool. Absta has died, and what do you know, that leaves my top two scumspects.

In post 1464, RedCoyote wrote:BBT, I'm asking you to give me this one, man. I don't deserve it after the Zoro misfire, but give me this one. I'll completely sheep you tomorrow if I am wrong. You can hold me to that.

Looking back, this could be a seer crumb. Like he knows he isn't wrong and wants my support for his wagon.
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Post Post #1502 (isolation #223) » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:59 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I'm looking forward to you doing anything that even remotely resembles your earlier play.
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Post Post #1504 (isolation #224) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 12:20 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Tony, join me in voting Bulba please.
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Post Post #1508 (isolation #225) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 2:52 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I don't pay attention to meta.
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Post Post #1510 (isolation #226) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 3:25 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Thoughts on Bulba Boon?
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #227) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:33 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I'd like to hear from Who and Boon.
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Post Post #1518 (isolation #228) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:55 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Boon, I'm interested in what makes you think Bulba is town.
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Post Post #1520 (isolation #229) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:07 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Also Keyser, I want you to explain your read on me.
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #230) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:51 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Looking forward to more than that Who.
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Post Post #1543 (isolation #231) » Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:12 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I'm good with Bulba being hammered.
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Post Post #1550 (isolation #232) » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:40 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

No.

Not redff
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Post Post #1551 (isolation #233) » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:41 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I need some time.

I have no idea who the last scum is.
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Post Post #1552 (isolation #234) » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:44 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Talk to me doctor.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #235) » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:50 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Keyser, you should explain why you're scum reading me. I have been asking for 2 game days now.

Doctor I have a very simple question to ask you; do you think I would be alive if Redff was scum?
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Post Post #1558 (isolation #236) » Thu Sep 03, 2015 11:49 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Sure, it's right above your post.
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Post Post #1560 (isolation #237) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:14 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Sure, I mean, I guess you're entitled to your opinion.

In my opinion, if Redff was scum, I would now be dead. He would have known I was coming into this Day looking for his head and I just drove a scum lynch as well - I have been left alive to drive a mislynch on Redff. I feel fairly confident that he is town.

Last scum is in Boon/Keyser.
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Post Post #1562 (isolation #238) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:47 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

That isn't a great reads-list.

I'm wondering whether Boon managed to pocket me earlier in the game and has then used this to coast by the rest of the game up to this point. I think he knows me well enough to know that I would defend him pretty hard if people started pushing for his lynch - his play over the last few game days has been appalling.
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Post Post #1563 (isolation #239) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:48 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

And on the other side I'm sitting here wondering - why the fuck is Keyser still alive? Everybody and their dog has been town reading you since D1, and yet, here you are.
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Post Post #1566 (isolation #240) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:08 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Hmm, Keyser your ISO from D1 is quite interesting. You talk about Banakai - a lot. You pressure him, question him and appear to scum read him for some of the time. Yet, you never once vote for him - instead choosing to pursue other wagons. I mean, your read changes on him a lot from slight town, to mixed read, to scum read and you never appear to sort it out. All the while, you avoid his wagon like the plague and instead choose to push Absta.

This is classic FoS buddy, vote town. When I get some more time I'm going to look into you a little further and a little more closely.

PEdit - I have no idea why you think you would be a NK priority for scum, you've been absent a lot the past couple of game days. I figured if you were scum your play-style would be quite difficult to replicate and that looks like it could be the case - your activity and contribution has dwindled massively.
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Post Post #1567 (isolation #241) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:15 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

You only just made it onto the Bulba wagon as well and I'm struggling to find your reasoning for why you voted him.

Also, can you explain your scum read on me. You have scum read me since D1 and have never pushed it - why is this? Why have you not pushed me, voted me, presented your reasons? I think I was your late-game play - scum read me all game, take me to LyLo and you've never had to changed reads/reevaluate the game.
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Post Post #1568 (isolation #242) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:16 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In fact, before I even look any further into your ISO

VOTE: Keyser

This needs to happen.
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Post Post #1571 (isolation #243) » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:48 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Doctor, I have done a quick ISO of the VCs from D1 and I think your VCA is somewhat lacking - you miss a lot of important information by only looking at wagons that got to L-2 or higher (I believe this VC falls under your bracket, no?)

In post 840, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Banakai
(5):
Haschel Cedricson
,
Red Coyote
,
Bulbazoor
, Boonskiies, BlueBloodedToffee

Boonskiies
(4):
absta101
,
Banakai
,
Tony Montana
,
Kmd4390

absta101
(4):
Zoronos
, redff, Keyser Söze, Doctor Who


Not Voting
(0):

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00)[/color]


The other scum is 100% pushing the Absta lynch. Scum spread themselves out to push multiple wagons to counter the Banakai wagon.

I plan on doing a full VCA and having a closer look at Keyser tonight.
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Post Post #1588 (isolation #244) » Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:41 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Prod received.

Tomorrow.
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Post Post #1594 (isolation #245) » Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:30 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Spoiler: D1 VCs
In post 183, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


WoodyWoodpecker
(5):
Vinkah, BlueBloodedToffee, Keyser Söze,
absta101
,
Bulbazoor

absta101
(2):
Zoronos
,
Kmd4390

Bulbazoor
(1):
WoodyWoodpecker

Kmd4390
(1):
Tony Montana


Not Voting
(4):
Banakai
,
RedCoyote
,
Haschel Cedricson
, redFF



In post 418, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


RedCoyote
(3):
BlueBloodedToffee, Keyser Söze, Boonskiies

absta101
(2):
Zoronos
,
Kmd4390

Doctor Who
(2):
absta101
, redff

Bulbazoor
(1):
Doctor Who

Kmd4390
(1):
Tony Montana

redff
(1):
Banakai


Not Voting
(3):
RedCoyote
,
Haschel Cedricson
,
Bulbazoor



In post 550, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


absta101
(4):
Zoronos
,
Kmd4390
, Boonskiies, redff

Boonskiies
(3):
absta101
,
Banakai
,
Tony Montana

RedCoyote
(1):
BlueBloodedToffee

Bulbazoor
(1):
Doctor Who

Banakai
(1):
Haschel Cedricson


Not Voting
(3):
RedCoyote
,
Bulbazoor
, Keyser Söze



In post 678, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Boonskiies
(4):
absta101
,
Banakai
,
Tony Montana
,
Kmd4390

absta101
(3):
Zoronos
, Boonskiies, redff

Banakai
(2):
Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote

Tony Montana
(1):
BlueBloodedToffee

BlueBloodedToffee
(1):
Doctor Who


Not Voting
(2):
Bulbazoor
, Keyser Söze



In post 728, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Boonskiies
(4):
absta101
,
Banakai
,
Tony Montana, Kmd4390

Banakai
(4):
Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote
,
Bulbazoor
, Boonskiies

BlueBloodedToffee
(2):
Doctor Who, redff

absta101
(1):
Zoronos

Tony Montana
(1):
BlueBloodedToffee


Not Voting
(1):
Keyser Söze



In post 840, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Banakai
(5):
Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote
,
Bulbazoor
, Boonskiies, BlueBloodedToffee

Boonskiies
(4):
absta101
,
Banakai
,
Tony Montana, Kmd4390

absta101
(4):
Zoronos
, redff, Keyser Söze, Doctor Who


Not Voting
(0):



In post 891, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Banakai
(4):
Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote
,
Bulbazoor
, Boonskiies

Boonskiies
(4):
absta101
,
Banakai
,
Tony Montana, Kmd4390

absta101
(3):
redff, Keyser Söze, Doctor Who

Tony Montana
(2):
Zoronos
, BlueBloodedToffee


Not Voting
(0):



In post 972, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Banakai
(7):
Haschel Cedricson, Red Coyote
,
Bulbazoor
, Boonskiies, BlueBloodedToffee,
absta101
,
Banakai

Boonskiies
(3):
Banakai
,
Tony Montana, Kmd4390

absta101
(3):
redff, Keyser Söze, Doctor Who

Tony Montana
(1):
Zoronos


Not Voting
(0):

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Analysis coming up in a sec.
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #246) » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:48 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Alright, so the first thing I noticed is that there are three votecounts (two wagons) where we have no flip and my first thought is, is that intentional?

We have the early RC wagon () and the Absta wagon ( and ). Keyser is the only person on both those wagons. It's a minor point, but it caught my attention. Another thing that caught my attention is Keyser being reluctant to join wagons - he sits in the 'Not Voting' section way too much for my liking, especially for someone as active as he was.

OK, so starting from the beginning I focused on what happened to the Woody wagon - Keyser was first to unvote. I initially thought this unlikely to come from scum because Woody just kept getting scummier with every response, however, after looking over Keyser's post I don't really get why he unvoted? Like, he seems to suggest he unvoted because Woody is an easy lynch...not because he has done anything town. In fact, in his unvote post () he outright states that Woody has reacted 'negatively/poorly' to the pressure applied on him.

I think Keyser was jumping off a wagon that he expected to go through. The timing of it is interesting as well because it's not long after Bulba joined it - two scum on an early wagon like that isn't ideal for VCA purposes.

Next, we see the arrival of two new wagons - Boon and Absta (). We can see the Absta wagon was town driven - town driven wagons are like a goldmine for scum. Boon and Redff hop on board the Absta wagon. I feel like Redff's vote is solidly reasoned in , Boon's however, is not.

Boon's scumread on Absta starts back in - it's very vague though. He 'doesn't like Absta's answers to some of the questions', he does elaborate a little further in but it's weak and I don't know how Boon is getting a scum read from that post. He states in that he is null/lean scum on Absta - does this read ever change? From 338 until Absta was lynched, did Boon ever reevaluate that read? In fact, I'm struggling to remember Boon reevaluating any of his reads and this is a serious red flag for me - he is repeating the exact same behaviour with Redff now.

and Asbta becomes his top scum read...he begins to think Keyser could be town. Note - there is no elaboration on his earlier reasoning for Absta being scum.

and - This is reaching. Boon is looking hard to find reasons to justify his vote, he knows his earlier reasoning isn't solid enough to push that wagon. Fuck, Boon might be scum. Is that why I'm still alive? You want bragging rights Boon? I have pretty much had you as town all game and have paid very little attention to you up until now.

Up to VC in 55p - breaking it up in the hopes people actually read what I'm saying.

UNVOTE:

PEdit - Red, can you not like lie down and die please? Thanks.
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #247) » Mon Sep 07, 2015 8:28 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Not much has changed in - Kmd has jumped ship from the Absta wagon to the Boon wagon.

However, Banakai is just starting to gain some attention. We know Banakai is pushing the Boon wagon - ballsy move if Boon is his buddy but certainly possible. We also know Bulba is not voting - what is Banakai's other buddy doing? Surely both scum are not sitting in the 'Not Voting' section as their buddy starts getting some heat? I think the other scum is much more likely to be pushing another wagon - making sure their vote counts. This, again, points to Redff and Boon. For reasons explained earlier, Boon is much more likely to be scum here.

Moving onto - Bulba and Boon have joined the Banakai wagon. They join the wagon on the same page, there's not even 2 hours between the votes. I'm having serious trouble seeing both scum jump on their buddy like that - that would annoy the shit out of me if I was scum being bussed like that. Boon's vote is, again, seriously lacking explanation (). Is this scum theatre? Are Boon and Banakai trying to distance from one another? Banakai's 'case' on Boon was shaky at best and as we can see, Boon's vote is out of the blue. In fact, I noted at the time that the change in Boon's read on Banakai concerned me.

is an important VC - we have 3 competing wagons and we know one was on scum and one was on town. The problem is that Absta's wagon has so many unflipped people on it - is this intentional? Is that where the last scum is hiding and he doesn't want to narrow down the lynch options? This is based on Boon not bussing though and I have to admit that I find it hard to believe both Bulba and Boon bussed their buddy like that - seems extreme. Unless Boon prioritised his own life above Banakai's, which is entirely possible.

The Absta wagon has sprung up from nowhere - this is the second time this has happened. Redff, Keyser and Doctor have joined it. Redff joined the wagon and began pushing it as a 3rd option to Banakai and Boon - starting another wagon to counter Banakai? He can't join the Boon wagon after stating it had 'scummy looking players on it' () so Absta is his next best thing if he is scum with Banakai and wants to save him. If he is scum with Banakai though, why even mention Boon wagon is bad? He could just jump on it otherwise. Yeah, I'm OK with this vote.

Keyser's reasoning for hopping on board the Absta wagon is...non existant? (805). Like, he states most of his town reads are on Banakai wagon (great reason to join it, no?) and most of his scum reads are on the Boon wagon but due to him town reading Boon he didn't want to join that wagon either. I actually don't see any reasoning for Keyser joining the Absta wagon other than he doesn't like the two leading wagons at that time...despite having enough reason to jump aboard the Banakai wagon. He states he dislikes the Banakai wagon because of possible opportunistic votes from myself and Asbta - votes that could only be opportunistic if Banakai was town - which we know he was not.

Doctor's vote on Asbta is also lacking any real explanation - I mean, what the hell was that? (). For that point in the game, Doctor's vote on the Absta wagon was seriously shaky...how the hell did I miss that. I feel scum!Doctor would be much more likely to want to keep Boon alive (because of his antics) than Absta who had spells of solid posting.

Not much change into - a Tony wagon picks up and I jump ship from Banakai to Tony.

Finally, we have the Banakai lynch and a completely unflipped wagon on Absta. Based on D1 VCA, I think Boon could be scum. However, my gut is telling me that the last scum is hiding on the Absta wagon - the wagon has no flips. Doctor has been doing VCA for some time, I could absolutely see his strategy coming from him. Based on his play overall though, I still think he is town.

It's between Boon and Keyser for me and I'm actually starting to think it could be Boon.

Hoping to get some D2 VCs and VCA done tomorrow night.
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Post Post #1611 (isolation #248) » Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:57 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Not much has happened - I'll be here tonight to start D2 VCA.

People should start posting.
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #249) » Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:07 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Sorry guys, super busy at this time of the year.

I think I have some free time tomorrow night - I'll get to this then.
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Post Post #1645 (isolation #250) » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:10 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1602, Doctor Who wrote:
You have also noted that Day 1 reasons for votes were weak, I'd argue that Day 1 votes are generally weak. You've assigned weak votes to more players than there are scum remaining.

I disagree with this - compare Boon's voting/reasoning to Haschel's voting/reasoning and it's night and day. D1 votes can, and should, have solid reasoning behind them. 15+ pages is more than enough information to form a decent case.

In post 1604, Doctor Who wrote:
Here's that lynch wagon. It'd be way too ballsy for all three scum to be on the lynch wagon - this is part of why I think you and Boon are town. This game isn't completely vanilla - there is a cop. That adds to the riskiness. A scum team that didn't have an opportunity to collude wouldn't all vote one of their own out day 1.

Why did you change your mind? You seemed convinced that both scum were on the Banakai wagon - what happened to change your mind?

In post 1613, Keyser Söze wrote:I hope to post my read on BlueBloodedToffee in the next 24 hours.

7 days til the deadline.

I hope this has come. Been waiting since D1.
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Post Post #1646 (isolation #251) » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:16 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

In post 1627, Dierfire wrote:
Keyser didn't turn on Bulbazoor until BBT saw the claim. In fact, he was trying to deflect the suspicion ( was especially bad after admitted to not looking at the slot in a while).

I completely missed this, that's a good point.

In post 1629, Dierfire wrote:
Did you get enough of an impression of Bulbazoor in real time to guess how he'd interact with the third member of his team? I would have guessed that he'd play for distance from both, which may fit Boon better than it does Keyser. In particular, seems bold to me coming from Bulbazoor.

I said during the game that after multiple games with Bulba I found him near impossible to read - I have no idea how he would react with his buddies. The only reason I thought he could be scum was because I figured RC had a guilty on him.

In post 1640, Doctor Who wrote:
@BBT and Boon
- the last scum is redFF or Keyser. Today isn't lylo, but I need you both to see that this is the case. I'd just want to be sure that the other one is the lynch tomorrow if we're wrong today.

Dier is not scum - I could lynch Keyser though.

In post 1644, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1643, Dierfire wrote:I really hope that Keyser is Mafia, then.

I am willing to be lynched today to have you lynched tomorrow.

Here's my vote: VOTE: Dierfire

Soooo, still no case for me then?
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Post Post #1647 (isolation #252) » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:26 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Spoiler: D2 VCs
In post 1130, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


absta101
(2):
Boonskiies, redFF

Zoronos
(2):
RedCoyote
,
Kmd4390

BlueBloodedToffee
(2):
Doctor Who,
Tony Montana

Kmd4390
(1):
Zoronos

Tony Montana
(1):
absta101


Not Voting
(3):
Keyser Söze,
Bulbazoor
, BlueBloodedToffee


In post 1193, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Zoronos
(3):
RedCoyote
,
Kmd4390
, Keyser Söze,

absta101
(2):
Boonskiies, redFF

BlueBloodedToffee
(2):
Doctor Who,
Tony Montana

Kmd4390
(1):
Zoronos

Tony Montana
(1):
absta101

redFF
(1):
BlueBloodedToffee


Not Voting
(1):
Bulbazoor


In post 1209, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Zoronos
(3):
RedCoyote
,
Kmd4390
, Keyser Söze,

absta101
(2):
Boonskiies, redFF

Tony Montana
(2):
absta101
,
Bulbazoor

redFF
(2):
BlueBloodedToffee,
Tony Montana

BlueBloodedToffee
(1):
Doctor Who

Kmd4390
(1):
Zoronos


In post 1275, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Zoronos
(4):
RedCoyote
,
Kmd4390
, Keyser Söze, redFF

Tony Montana
(2):
absta101
,
Bulbazoor

absta101
(1):
Boonskiies

redFF
(1):
BlueBloodedToffee

BlueBloodedToffee
(1):
Doctor Who

Kmd4390
(1):
Zoronos


Not Voting
(1):
Tony Montana


In post 1318, Shinobi wrote:
Vote Count


Zoronos
(6):
RedCoyote
,
Kmd4390
, Keyser Söze, redFF,
absta101
, Boonskiies

Tony Montana
(1):
Bulbazoor

redFF
(1):
BlueBloodedToffee

BlueBloodedToffee
(1):
Doctor Who

Kmd4390
(1):
Zoronos


Not Voting
(1):
Tony Montana
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Post Post #1648 (isolation #253) » Sat Sep 12, 2015 11:44 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Firstly, I think the key thing to note is that the Zoro wagon was town driven by two strong town players - this is important because it makes the Zoro wagon an extremely easy wagon for scum to jump onto.

Looking back, Keyser is first to join the Zoro wagon. His reasoning can be found in . I find this vote weak - he essentially votes Zoro for 'no evidence of rereading/rethinking his reads.' I'm not even sure how any of the things Keyser is pointing out points to Zoro being scum - it doesn't make sense to me. Like, he says Zoro didn't explain some of his reads at end of D1 and wasn't online for hammer - how is that scummy? And if it is, I find it hypocritical that you have been scum reading me since D1 and still haven't explained your read on p66. Thoughts and actions are not matching up here.

Next is redff, his vote can be found in . This is a perfect example of why you explain your reads and your votes because this vote is scummy as fuck coming from a slot that I am town reading. There is no explanation for the vote, no prior suspicion of Zoro to be found and yet he jumps on the wagon - a wagon I said it would be very easy for scum to join earlier. I really don't like this vote.

Then we have Boon's hammer - again, a shitty vote. I hate when town do dumb shit like this, it just makes the game harder to figure out. Like, Keyser's vote out of the 3 is the most explained (even if the reasoning is weak) and then we have two really bad votes (one of which we know has to have come from town) so it's pretty shitty play tbh. Funnily enough, it's the vote that is accompanied by the shitty reasoning that I find the scummiest.

I find it extremely hard to imagine that the last scum is not on that wagon. Right now, it's Keyser > Boon > Redff for me.
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Post Post #1650 (isolation #254) » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:49 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Except for RC clearly wasn't scum reading me so how does that make sense with your 'lynching from RC's scum pool'?
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Post Post #1651 (isolation #255) » Sun Sep 13, 2015 4:39 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

VOTE: Keyser
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Post Post #1667 (isolation #256) » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:29 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

VOTE: No lynch

This should happen with very little discussion.
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Post Post #1669 (isolation #257) » Wed Sep 16, 2015 5:32 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

It's funny, because I had that exact thought. I remember it well.

Now vote no lynch.
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Post Post #1675 (isolation #258) » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:58 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Haha, OK.

It's 5am but I'm pretty sure I want to vote for Boon. If Redff was scum, he deserves to win.

I'll be back tomorrow when I know I'm thinking straight.
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Post Post #1677 (isolation #259) » Fri Sep 18, 2015 10:23 pm

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Hahahaha, I fucking knew it.

Keeping me around for bragging rights, huh Boon? That just backfired massively.

VOTE: Boon

Easy game. Boon has tried to set me up for the fall.
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Post Post #1690 (isolation #260) » Sun Sep 20, 2015 6:52 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Thanks for comments guys, it was a good game but pretty stressful!

I'm good with the scum PT being released.
Thanks for the game Shin, great modding as always


I definitely made a mistake in LyLo voting first but I figured if I was town it's for sure what I would do so I had to go for it. Seeing somebody else use VCA has given me a whole new perspective on how easily it can be manipulated - I'm going to be paying closer attention to this in future games as VCA is usually one of my primary scum hunting tools.

I actually had no intention of bussing this game (I think bussing has run it's course) but I thought Banakai started looking pretty bad when he was presenting his Boon case and I couldn't avoid being off that wagon. Same for Bulba, he just stopped playing and I was left like...wtf is going on?

I really enjoyed the game though - especially getting one over on Boon. I remembered your no kill gambit in the last mini we played Boon and was going to bring that up if need be - but you did it for me :)

Also, I'm surprised RC never caught me. I felt like he knew something was off but couldn't put his finger on it - would be interested in hearing his thoughts.

Good game guys, thanks for modding Boon.
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Post Post #1692 (isolation #261) » Sun Sep 20, 2015 7:11 am

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Thanks Keyser!

Had you kept your activity up you would have been night killed. I probably would have done RC and then you instead of Tony - the drop off in posting/content made it too easy to keep you around.
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Post Post #1697 (isolation #262) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 7:50 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Yeah, for sure. I really wanted to keep that Absta vs redff thing going on for as long as possible and luckily the town seemed to want to do the same thing.

I hope we both get to play scum sometime RC, I think that would be good fun :)
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Post Post #1699 (isolation #263) » Mon Sep 21, 2015 8:08 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I think Bulb and Banakai do.

I don't see either having a problem with it tbh...
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