Micro 615: The Walking Dead: Episode 5 (GAME OVER)

[Something_Smart]

hello everyone

This is going to be a tough game... I've erroneously scumread half the players here (and almost all of the ones I know).

@shotty: what is the meaning of 13?

Also VOTE: WhiteLight

[Something_Smart]

Java, why answer a question directed at shotty?

[Something_Smart]

omg somebody else is alive
2 questions to you, shotty:
#1 what is the meaning of 13?
#2: why did you make post 22?

[Something_Smart]

Thank you Mollie, that's about what I was going for although I didn't know there was a law for it.

Also 28 strikes me as odd because why wouldn't town want their alignment to be determined immediately?

Also also I just realized 8 is also weird because it implies that Java read the post before his, but not the one two posts before that. Probably means nothing though. COME ON PEOPLE POST MORE SO I CAN SORT YOU PLEASE AND THANK YOU.

[Something_Smart]

Also also... also

whoops lmao

[Something_Smart]

but you were already voting him

[Something_Smart]

but you were already voting him

Ya but the first vote was super rvs. Him answering for me was legitimately scummy

Why is that, and why did you not just say "vote is now serious"?

[Something_Smart]

I don't think it's self explanatory. Did you think it was scum just because it was "strange"?

[Something_Smart]

@Guilty: what about it don't you like?

[Something_Smart]

I was looking to see if he'd fumble (for instance by admitting he knew his vote was already there when he obviously didn't).

I know it's not an ideal way to scumhunt, but there's barely any content to analyze. I'm just trying to spark conversation.

Finally, I'd like to know why you called it a "push".

[Something_Smart]

I guess I can see where you're coming from. I mean, you know from experience that I can find arbitrary things to push on as scum if I need to, and I did make an effort to not express any sort of scumread on him (because I don't have one, they were just probing questions).

I thought because of the way he made that vote it was fairly obvious he wasn't intentionally reaffirming his vote. It's true that I would have wondered if you had done it accidentally in the game you linked, but that was a naked vote and the original vote was only a few hours and a few posts earlier.

What do you think of mollie vs. BBT?

[Something_Smart]

@Mollie I might do.

@SS there is no Mollie vs BBT.

Ok I'll rephrase that then. @Guilty what do you think about BBT's and mollie's comments regarding each other?

[Something_Smart]

It doesn't seem like it "almost" got by at all and 56 sounds like it was just meant to discredit.

What would you prefer it be called? and what did you think I was trying to imply by calling it "BBT vs. mollie"?

[Something_Smart]

Mollie, ssshhhh!

SS, you know full well what the scum motivation would be for saying such a thing.

That wasn't what I was asking.

What did you think

I

was trying to imply? Without assuming I'm scum.

[Something_Smart]

you know what screw it this game sucked for me anyway
VOTE: Something_Smart

[Something_Smart]

Just being clear: 65 is not a scumclaim.

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:
that was fun, we should do it again sometime

70 is very likely scum. Here is BBT so sure that I'm scum and he suddenly brings up the point "if I'm town" without mentioning how unlikely it would be for anyone to self-hamemr there, probably because he doesn't want everyone to see my townflip and be like "hmm BBT was pushing him as an easy mislynch". As scum I sometimes fall into the trap of saying "if you're town" to the townies I'm pushing just to lessen the blow when they flip town.
VOTE: BBT

pedit: nope I was only at L-1 because GL was already voting me.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure why BBT would believe me claiming town after thinking I self-hammered, and the way that post is phrased seems to be trying to shift as much of the blame for the lynch as possible onto me.

[Something_Smart]

mollie I see your point...
I guess now my issue is less with the "if you self-hammered as town" and more with the "I hope you're feeling embarrassed". I think the latter is just something he found so that he could say the former, i.e. why should I feel embarrassed in particular? clearly I did what I thought was right, I might feel regretful or idiotic, but I don't really see why I should feel embarrassed.

Or maybe I just really want to call BBT scum because of how weakly he's pushing me. I mean, I did that last time I played with him and was right, so that may be leading me to a false conclusion.

is this game a troll and every1 is in on it but me its okay radja won't mind if some1 squeals

no, but I think I'm reverting into a child... when a game starts off like this for me, it tends to go downhill and so I'm sort of freaking out about it and doing weird crap that doesn't make any sense. I guess the only thing that's ever worked in this situation (i.e. not gotten me lynched or nearly lynched) is to just step back and forget all my previous reads and start over. I'm going to do that and see if I can't start making sense.

Pedit: ok, my first townread now goes to beeboy.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, so moving forward.

WhiteLight should be very easy to read. I'm leaning town on them but I'm not concerned about that read as it will sort itself out eventually. Actually, I just realized I don't like 101 that much, but like I said, not too worried about this read.

I don't like the angle shotty is taking here at all, but I don't know yet if that makes him scum. In Freedom's Call I disliked his posts (though not as much as I do here, it is true) and he ended up being town. I think there are many things that could cause him to play differently in this game and so I have him at a mild scumlean for now.

Mollie has seemed sympathetic and able to see my point of view when people were hostile toward me. I can't remember at the moment if that is a scumtell or if I just thought it was a scumtell in the past. Regardless, my current attitude toward her is "grateful but wary."

I'm going to back away from BBT for a little bit. It worked in Pokemon, and it will hopefully work here.
UNVOTE:

I've never faced scum GL, but I've seen that he tends to win LYLOs, so my assumption from that is that he plays more logically as scum. His play here seems not as logical and consistent so far with what I remember from Brass & Shrapnel, so for now I'll call him a townlean.

I don't have enough from the other players to form a read on them.

[Something_Smart]

Don't worry shotty, nobody's getting lynched yet. I believe this game to be solvable but I'm definitely going to have trouble reading you and Cakez. However I still don't have a read on you.

@Mollie: yeah I'll definitely do that and reading what I wrote it came out a bit rougher than I meant it to. Be assured that if I do develop a scumread on you (I am currently reading you weak town) that it will be justified; I'm not one to succumb to unwarranted paranoia.

@Cakez: why do you think I did the fake selfhammer?

@Java: what about 85 is more likely to come from scum? And what about my gambit didn't you like?

[Something_Smart]

This is the second time today I'm going to be mislynched because of my play style. I like high pressure. I didn't ask for a claim I wanted to see how he squirmed. Take that as you will but that is how I scum hunt.

hey guys hey

can you unvote shotty and look at beetlejuiced javahoe who just placed an opportunistic vote on shotty?

kthnx

^this is true... java has scumread the two players that are the easiest targets.

Interestingly, so has SirCakez (although he did change his read on me when I started making sense). I'd say his shotty vote is about as opportunistic as java's. Also, let me just mention that my fake selfhammer was not a joke as Cakez thought, it was a reaction test. Of course, as I tend to do when I do reaction tests, I misinterpreted the reaction to mean what I wanted it to mean. (not the first time I've done this: reaction test * response * me totally misinterpreting the response)

Given that I have incorrectly scumread Cakez literally every time I have played with him (except when we were scumbuddies, but that game was an unmitigated disaster), I'm hesitant to scumread him. In fact, given that I want to, that might actually make me townread him.

Also @ mollie: what is it that I jumped on shotty about that you thought was innocuous?

[Something_Smart]

It might be worth it to read Walking Dead 4 (I'm considering it and 30 pages isn't too much)... although I want to look at shotty's meta and I have a feeling survivor meta won't be that helpful

I do agree on Cakez to some extent, but it should be noted that Java also provided reasoning for his shotty vote, it's just that the reasoning for both of their votes was pretty weak and superficial (and therefore super easy to make as scum). Cakez as usual is giving me mixed signals (I like parts of 105 and 107, but 26 and 60 ping me slightly). I think the awkwardness of those posts is just characteristic of him and that's why I'm okay with townreading him for now.

[Something_Smart]

I don't like gambits of any kind, not just this one.

Explain please.

[Something_Smart]

So you don't like gambits because they make townies seem scummy. Meanwhile you're scumreading me for doing a gambit...

[Something_Smart]

It's an undeniable fact that townies execute gambits frequently (in my experience more frequently than scum). You can't just say it's a scumtell and *poof* it's a scumtell.
The fact that you're admitting that it

appears

scummy to you even though you know it's

not

scummy is tantamount to confessing you're faking your reads.

[Something_Smart]

So if a townie is pulling a gambit and intentionally lying then they will seem scummy to me and detracting from me seeing the actual scum.

[Something_Smart]

^true but shotty you ought to know that someone on a wagon at L-1 has no leverage to force a claim.

Mollie, why do you want java to claim?

[Something_Smart]

That's not why you said you were FoSing her. You said it was because you didn't want a lynch this early in the game.

[Something_Smart]

But you also admitted that Mollie can't actually lynch Java. So the fear of a fast lynch based off of that post is unfounded. Why, then, did you unvote?

[Something_Smart]

So it's okay for

you

to threaten to hammer to see the reaction...but it's not okay for anyone else to do the same thing?

[Something_Smart]

I can see how you would be worried about a lynch... but now how does the FoS fit in with this? According to you, Mollie was trying the same thing that you did, except that you didn't know she wouldn't hammer the way you knew you wouldn't (except you didn't bother to look and see if she even could hammer). So how can you scumread her for doing that?

[Something_Smart]

I interpreted your FoS to be a weak scumread, a scumlean if you'd prefer to call it that. Regardless of semantics, you found her action scummy. Also, asking for a claim and giving intent to hammer are virtually equivalent.

What is your current read on Mollie? What did you mean by the FoS, if not that she was leaning scum?

[Something_Smart]

FoS does mean finger of suspicion. I'm really not liking the contradictions in the logic of you or shotty right now.

[Something_Smart]

@Cakez: how does Java compare to your experience of him? If I recall correctly you've been his scumbuddy multiple times.

[Something_Smart]

I don't like S_S and that gambit, I don't dislike Java's play enough to ask for a claim yet.

Cake calling me suspicious after an RVS vote and a wee bit of inactivity struck a chord with me.

Mollie is mollie, I'm townreading her because literally I find it hard not to.

Kind of townier-than-null on BBT because the reaction to S-S's gambit looked town - I'd have had the same reaction if I hadn't been on a train in the middle of a field in England at the time.

Sorry about that by the way. Activity from now henceforth.

I'm not following the Mollie read, are you saying she's unreadable?

And what is your read on Java?

[Something_Smart]

Guilty, what is it about WhiteLight you dislike so much? So far I have been reading their posts as pretty genuine. I see a huge difference between their ISO here and in this game, and 83 among others reminds me very much of the beeboy from this game (particularly this post), where he was super obvtown.

[Something_Smart]

hi mollie
What have you got against beeboy?

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I mentioned some thoughts about them in 182, and like I said in the beginning they're a low priority sort.

I think I'm ready to talk with BBT again. BBT get in here!

Also Mollie you asked Mav to post and he did, what did you think of that post?

[Something_Smart]

Beeboy's deliberate failure to take a stance is pretty towny. In Freedom's Call, beeboy was constantly pushing on whatever he could find and being dodgy and sidestep-y, and Suzune was super defensive. Here they feel for the most part straightforward, though I will agree that that interaction with shotty does feel pretty weak. Although slips don't exist so I don't think that's why they would have done that.

@Mollie: I've seem both beeboy and Suzune become obvtown when under pressure. Their alignment was very obvious in Freedom's Call, and I expect it to be obvious here.

[Something_Smart]

I'm bored!

VOTE: beeboy

10/10 reasoning

My read on GL is sinking.199 reminds me of the nitpicky stuff he used as scum in College Mafia.

I dunno I think that's mostly personality. He seems to be posting in the same standoffish but motivated manner that he had in Brass & Shrapnel and Word Sneak 2. However, I've never seen him as scum so if I get a chance I'll go look at his ISO from College.

[Something_Smart]

Hmm. So I looked at GL's ISO in College and it didn't look that similar, although that may have been confbias. When I tried to quantify it a little further, I found that in College almost every post was some sort of direct response to another player, and he didn't seem to be doing much unprompted analysis. I didn't think that was the case here but looking back his play is actually kind of like that. Another thing in College was that his posts lost that somewhat unfriendly edge that I recall them having in Brass & Shrapnel and Word Sneak 2, and I did see that in his push on me (that may also be confbias because I don't liked to be pushed).

Back me up here (or don't) SirCakez, you were actually in that game and interacting with him, and I wasn't. I noted several potential sources of confbias, and I know I form much better reads when I can manage to keep an open mind.

[Something_Smart]

I would definitely like to see more content from WL before forming a solid read on them, that is true. It's annoying that they have to coordinate exactly what they're going to say, though. They weren't like that before.

Hmm... I wonder if they thought they were obvscum because they didn't coordinate in Freedom's Call and they don't want to be obvsc again...

[Something_Smart]

mmkay THIS is the beeboy from Freedom's Call.

[Something_Smart]

Scum.

[Something_Smart]

Scum.

so why aren't you voting him

I'm not going to throw down a vote based on two posts. The statement that I want them to post more still applies.

[Something_Smart]

inb4 somebody points out that that's what I did to BBT, and yes I did but it was stupid.

[Something_Smart]

^I'd just like to point out that GL used the same evidence to support the opposite conclusion. Something worth noting.

[Something_Smart]

LMAO you're one to talk

have any notable reads?

[Something_Smart]

I feel like we've hit a brick wall because 4/9 players haven't given any content in AT LEAST two days.
Shotty, Mav, BBT, Java, get in here! We need to hear from you! And still waiting for content promised by WhiteLight as well (feel better beeboy!).

@Cakez I'm willing to consider GL being scum for sure, it's just that I'm have a SUPER hard time forming townreads in this game (just as I predicted I would), and GL was an initial townlean of mine so I'm kinda clinging to it for now. My list of decent townreads is basically mollie.

[Something_Smart]

^this is actually a surprisingly good post

[Something_Smart]

Hmm. Interesting reads.

I realize you may not be able to explain them all but could you explain in particular the Maverick and SirCakez reads?

[Something_Smart]

WhiteLight, why not vote Guilty? Java's already a claimed one-shot PR and we're not going to lynch him today.

[Something_Smart]

So mollie do you see what I don't like about 259?

[Something_Smart]

So mollie do you see what I don't like about 259?

I dunno can you spell it out for me plz

Sure. The correct answer is "anything."

If we cannot convience you that Java is a good choice,

Misrepresenting the situation. The issue is not whether or not they are convincing me, it's not even whether or not Java is a good choice. Due to the nature of his claim, we won't lynch him today. Maybe tomorrow. But not today.

we will be forced to change to guilty.

Who's forcing you? Guilty is, according to their combined reads, as much of a scumread as Java, and there's no reason a Java wagon couldn't go through without my vote anyway.

However, we are not going to let that read go, simply because you do not wish to entertain it right now.

Again, not what I was asking them to do.

Town always seems to think that having a power role that can be confirmed means you are town. Having a power role does not make you town.

Ok captain obvious now you're deflecting my question.

What use would a town have to an ability to figure out the role. What the town needs is a regular cop.

What is this supposed to mean? Town rolecops are a thing, and Radja has used them before. You're not doing setup spec on a closed setup with no flips. This is EXACTLY the type of thing that scum!WhiteLight would do.

[Something_Smart]

@mollie: I wasn't reading too closely into their posts and kind of liked their reaction to my gale selfhammer. Their posting has gotten progressively worse. Same thing that happened in Freedom's Call: I townread them early but eventually came around on them when they really scummed it up.

[Something_Smart]

@WhiteLight: while I may have misunderstood you, that post does not seem to give evidence that I misrepresented you, in fact you hard townread me so I don't see why allowing me to misrepresent you comes into it, that sounds like you think I'm doing it on purpose (while giving no evidence that I'm doing it at all).

What I'm saying is, the GL read seems out of place. It seems to be as strong as the Java read yet you are pushing Java hard and ignoring GL. It makes me doubt the authenticity of that read. And I don't think you should feel "forced" to vote a scumread- I'd think you'd be happy to lynch either one of them.

[Something_Smart]

"I will not sit by and allow you to misrepresent us. Either of you actually.

I have never once said before that I was being misrepresented

:/

[Something_Smart]

*gale in 275 should be fake, stupid autocorrect

@mollie: I wasn't reading too closely into their posts and kind of liked their reaction to my gale selfhammer. Their posting has gotten progressively worse. Same thing that happened in Freedom's Call: I townread them early but eventually came around on them when they really scummed it up.

okay so if you think this is their scum meta why aren't you trying to seel me on the lynch by voting them?

It's too early for a lynch. There's no need to rush it along. I've found that sometimes not using your vote can be as powerful as using it.

[Something_Smart]

yep, all the time.

VOTE: WhiteLight

What's on your mind?

[Something_Smart]

I would like to point out two things.

Firstly, I took a few minutes to look through the Mini Normal Archives. Now I know this game is not Normal and contains non-Normal roles, but I know that Radja tries to balance his games as if they were Normal. (And his Pokemon games follow all the Normal guidelines except the source material rule so I know he's well acquainted with them.) I searched for "rolecop" and "role cop" and marked down the instances of each for town and scum, making a distinction between full (Rolecop) and limited (2-shot Rolecop, Odd-Night Rolecop, etc.), and this what I found:

5 Town Full Rolecops
17 Scum Full Rolecops
4 Town Limited Rolecops
4 Scum Limited Rolecops

Make of that what you will.

The second thing is a game that I think will be somewhat enlightening with regards to half of the WhiteLight hydra. In this game, Suzune got into trouble early on. She got confused about the setup and made several posts that looked like scumslips. With two people (in a six-player game) pushing hard down her throat (although one did get replaced early on), she managed to avoid being lynched and become universally townread. And look at the way she did it. Pretty much the exact opposite of what she's been doing here.

Now I know both heads of WhiteLight complained about us using meta. But the fact is that meta works, and that's why people use it. This hydra is playing at a much lower level than each head is capable of on its own, and that has to count for something.

[Something_Smart]

If you can't read people based on expectations, then how do you form reads?
You townread people for playing for your expectation of town play, including town motivation and town mindset.
You scumread people for not having those things. I would not expect any player (save a few special cases) to play like you are as town. Why is this so upsetting to you?

[Something_Smart]

@S_S: If your meta argument supports what WL is arguing, why aren't you voting Java instead? Because at the moment it looks like you're arguing the same point with WL against Java yet wanting to lynch WL anyway.

I'd just like to know what your reasoning is behind voting for WL, essentially.

I think you're totally misunderstanding my argument. My argument is that, as mollie said, their posts and analysis are shallow, plus they're being super defensive and complain-y, at the expense of scumhunting.

My meta argument is that I've seen WL play this exact same way as scum and I have seen both beeboy and Suzune be obviously town, and that's not at all what I'm seeing here. What made you think that my meta argument was in support of WL?

[Something_Smart]

Well (correct me if I'm wrong) but the statistics you found seemed to back-up WL's argument that Java's claim was a rolecop, but scum-aligned. It seemed strange that you would reference sources that backed up their argument, then have a go at them anyway.

No... the point of those data was that rolecop in general is usually a scum role, but limited rolecop does not have the same strongly scum connotation that full rolecop does.

In any event, it is by no means a "blatantly scum role" and that's one thing I dislike about WhiteLight.

[Something_Smart]

Hmph. I kind of buy that claim, and I think it forces a 1v1 since I will be mad if Radja put two town investigative roles in the same game.
WL's claim also seems to imply that there's a 3p, which would be consistent with the previous games (some did, some didn't).

Pretty sure the best play here is to lynch Java. Unless we lynch neither and see their results? Though Java certainly is a rolecop considering you don't fakeclaim rolecop as scum when you aren't one, and letting him out his result doesn't confirm anything and just outs more roles. So I don't think we gain anything leaving Java alive at this point.

UNVOTE:

Also feel better shotty and beeboy!

[Something_Smart]

All evidence points to there being at least one investigative. If BOTH claims are bogus, then there should be another investigative claim.
On the other hand, I sincerely doubt both claims are true. Therefore in every plausible scenario, WhiteLight will claim a guilty on Java. So no we're not wasting our time doing that either.

[Something_Smart]

mkay
VOTE: Java

[Something_Smart]

Actually, Pokemon was tracker, 1-shot BP and 1-shot vig.
But Rick Grimes has been 2-shot cop before. He's also been full cop and somebody else was full cop too in ep 4.
Also the town/not town result implies a 3p, the nature of which may weaken town significantly. So to doubt the claim on that basis is ridiculous.

[Something_Smart]

Town has 2-3 PR's. A protective, maybe, and an investigative, but 2 investigatives? I don't think it's very likely, even for Walking Dead.

[Something_Smart]

tbh I just didn't want the pagetop
Also, not sure what you want me to say? Rolecop is absolutely investigative, the important thing is that it takes away a spot that could otherwise be a different role. How would you balance a setup with a 1-shot rolecop and a 2-shot cop?

[Something_Smart]

So BBT who do you want to lynch? Do you have any thoughts that are not claim-related?

[Something_Smart]

Don't like the Java wagon.

Why would you say this if you hadn't read the game?

[Something_Smart]

Guilty, what's your read on shotty?

[Something_Smart]

hmm
What are you townreading Java for?

[Something_Smart]

Isn't it scummy for a person in a 1v1 to push somebody outside the 1v1? (I realize that we're not totally sure that this is a 1v1 but your expectation of what scum!java would do assumes it is.)

[Something_Smart]

^wait where did this read come from

and we won't have sure scum tomorrow, we'll have 1 confirmed town IF both are town (quite unlikely), otherwise we'll have a 1v1. If either one is scum, of course they will claim an incriminating result on the other.

[Something_Smart]

Meh, this game is annoying. Because of the playerlist I'm having trouble forming solid reads and when you add the high-stakes setup spec to that it gets even trickier.
I really don't believe that Radja would include 2 TPRs, when there are at most 3, that do nothing to affect the gamestate and instead just get results. I also don't think there's anything wrong with the Rick Grimes 2-shot cop claim just because Radja's used it before.

In terms of reads, I have decent townreads on mollie and shotty (though I will really have to meta mollie to assure myself that her stubbornness here is playstyle not alignment indicative). Maverick lurking and his posts being generally unimpressive makes me not want to like him but he committed a classic towntell in 321 so he's a townlean for now as well. Cakez is a townlean because I'm sheeping GL's read on him, as I can't really read Cakez basically at all.

Java and WhiteLight are a special case but I do think WhiteLight is town because their posts that I really hated make a ton more sense after the claim, whereas Java's coasting has been slightly scummy if anything.

BBT I don't know about and I want to call him scum but I want to wait until he actually takes long enough of a break from setup arguing to actually read the thread. Also he's pushing Java/WhiteLight as TvT which would be a convenient way to save your partner from a 1v1.

I'm scumreading GL because I initially didn't like his stance on the Java/WhiteLight argument and looking back at his ISO I'm seeing that only-responding-to-others thing that I mentioned about his ISO in College, and I also reread his ISO in Brass & Shrapnel and found that he was more proactive and more prone to changing his reads without prompting there. Plus his read on Java is questionable.

I'm just throwing that out there because I have very little clue what to do with all this. I still want to lynch Java and I don't like BBT's pushing hardcore against it, it's not like 1-shot Rolecop will be devastating for town to lose.

[Something_Smart]

We will not have conf scum tomorrow.

If Java is scum:
Java claims that WhiteLight is something other than a cop (vanilla, for instance) in order to force a 1v1
WhiteLight investigates Java and finds he is guilty
Result: Java claims guilty result on WhiteLight, WhiteLight claims guilty result on Java.

If WhiteLight is scum:
Java investigates WhiteLight and finds they are something other than a cop
WhiteLight claims a guilty on Java in order to force a 1v1
Result: Java claims guilty result on WhiteLight, WhiteLight claims guilty result on Java.

The two scenarios produce identical results, assuming scum fakeclaim intelligently.

All waiting a day does is eliminate the possibility that both are town, which I think is fairly remote anyway.

[Something_Smart]

Probably but do you see my point?

[Something_Smart]

So yes that is a valid question but we have to weigh all the factors here. There are a few things in play:

1. Two investigative claims- Even though Java's claimed role is quite weak, its nature is still investigative. Unfortunately, this is Radja's space for trying out potentially non-Normal mechanics and ideas, but I still doubt that he would include two roles with the same basic nature.

2. Java's weak claim- We lose very little by lynching Java, whereas WhiteLight's role loses part of its usefulness if they are forced to investigate Java. Additionally, Java's claim, being weak, is harder to catch with a balance question than a cop claim.

3. Play of the players themselves- both players played scummy enough to get run up. The odds that both are town go down based on that.

4. Worst case scenario versus likely outcome- while it is true that the worst case scenario of lynching Java is worse (both are town, go into 5 person LYLO with one confirmed inno from the N1 check), it is much less likely than the worst case scenario of not lynching either one (we mislynch today, go into the 1v1 tomorrow as I spelled out in 410, pick wrong and go into 3 person LYLO with no confirmed, ignoring other mechanics like 3rd parties).

5. Associative hunting- you want to hunt the partner today. But it's much harder to partner hunt when you don't know whose partner you're hunting.

So I realize this is pretty disorganized but the point is you have to consider probabilities as well as seriousness of the outcomes. So yes, I am scared that both are town, but I think it's a risk we need to take.

[Something_Smart]

name one read that is predicated on Java being scum

besides WhiteLight obviously

[Something_Smart]

@Smart - BBT, me. "His read on java is questionable"? I guess technically the BBT read is assuming it's TvS rather than java being scum

That's correct, BBT read is assuming it's TvS. Not assuming Java is scum.

However, the read on you has nothing to do with Java's alignment. Scum have to fake all their reads, both on scum and on town. So if a read looks fake (like your argument that Java not trying to scumhunt is towny), then it tells me something about your alignment, regardless of if you're looking for an excuse to townread your buddy or to whiteknight/buddy a doomed townie.

[Something_Smart]

what the hell is going on here! can my townreads stop fighting with each other please?

okay. Mav has a good point about shotty relying too heavily on math.

438 is invalid because town has every incentive to scumhunt. Period. So not scumhunting cannot possible be a towntell. 440 is terrible to suggest that scum would trade 1 for 1 with a town 1-shot rolecop.

In response to 443 (and also 448): His whole stance regarding my gambit made no sense, he's made virtually no real contribution to scumhunting all game, 306 does not strike me as a town post, and he's townreading WhiteLight despite their [insert thing I'm not supposed to say here].

444 fair point

445 no because java using his ability and reporting it is anti-town because it helps scum figure out PR's.

446 no. If you want to lynch outside of the claims, lynch GL.

448 no.

450 it's not equating one to another, it's just saying that there's not likely to be both because they have somewhat similar functions. Especially

two that could confirm each other as town.

458 no.

460 because you aren't making much sense.

465 NO. Shotty you're town but your reads are pretty bad. Just because you disagree with someone doesn't make them scum.

474 ...how did I miss this. Still, tracker and 1-shot cop have a lot worse synergy than 1-shot rolecop and 2-shot cop. Point taken, however.

This game has taken a very rough turn... I'm really not sure what to do.

Actually, I am sure of one thing. Shotty, mollie, and maverick should stop arguing and voting each other.
UNVOTE: because I don't want to see this day ended before all this crap is resolved.

[Something_Smart]

This game is such a mess, my brain is broken :/
Give me some time and I'll try my darnedest to figure it out but man it's like trying to play racquetball without a racquet.

[Something_Smart]

Not that I've ever done that

[Something_Smart]

Why?

[Something_Smart]

...yes? Guilty is simultaneously admitting he doesn't understand the post and trying to draw conclusions from it. Why is it a good point?

[Something_Smart]

I'll explain it after Java answers the question.

[Something_Smart]

511 and 512 are both icky.
Also, I still want Java to answer my question in 503.

[Something_Smart]

Mav, do you not see the genuineness in shotty's posting that I do?

[Something_Smart]

I think that the reason it isn't concerning is that it's so unlikely in the minds of most of us.

[Something_Smart]

@Mav: Shotty posts I thought seemed genuine: 136, 159, 249, 251, 252, 397, 426

[Something_Smart]

Only the last one is math, and it seems town-motivated to just lay all those numbers out like that. Also he's disregarding the possibility of a 3rd party which is weird because he was a 3rd party in the previous game... as scum he'd likely be hunting for one.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sick of today. We need flips.
I tried to read it I just can't make any sense of it yet. If we can't agree on whether or not to lynch within the claims then let's lynch GL.

[Something_Smart]

I could compile a case if necessary. His reactiveness, his pushing WL despite their claim, and his terrible discrediting of me are the main points.

[Something_Smart]

But GL as town you shouldn't discredit anyone, ESPECIALLY the people you townread.

Besides, that is how I scumhunt... you know, because scum don't play the same way town do. Sure, townhunting (which I think is what you're suggesting) is a thing, and I do it, too, but it's hard this game because so many of the players are hard to read.

Oh oh also a final thing: are you seriously pushing WL for not scumhunting after their claim? Because you were trying to townread Java for not scumhunting after his claim, and that does not fit my preconceived notion of town play

[Something_Smart]

@GL: I said "trying" because that read seemed so fake that you were looking for any excuse to townread him.

@Java: since you are probably getting lynched, you should give final thoughts and reads if you are town. Of course if you're scum then feel free to give up.

[Something_Smart]

Look at Shotty's meta if you have time. This doesn't feel like his scumgame.

[Something_Smart]

"Meta is a myth" is a myth.

[Something_Smart]

a. playstyles are super relevant.
b. I see where you're coming from, I just think you're wrong. Shotty's always hardheaded and he always thinks he's right, and his reads this game have been all over the place, but that doesn't make him scum.

[Something_Smart]

If either of you is scum, then congratulations on making this look TvT. Because it does :/

[Something_Smart]

The lack of final reads from Java is

concerning

reassuring

FTFY

[Something_Smart]

FTFY = fixed that for you
And Java why is GL town?

[Something_Smart]

@mollie: if 599 was directed at me then the answer is that I agree that Mav is town.

Regarding 602, shotty's arguments are mostly wrong and I don't know how much sense they make even in his head, but there are some posts where he really seems to be trying and I've seen his scumgame and that honest effort just wasn't there.

[Something_Smart]

Because the person I want to lynch is at L-1.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see any reason to.

[Something_Smart]

I kinda wanted mollie to say where her reads on everyone ended up.

[Something_Smart]

Intent to hammer tonight. I do still want this^ though if she wants to give it.

[Something_Smart]

Yep and I want to make sure she doesn't (though it seems that if she did she probably would have done it by now).

While you're here, beeboy, what are your thoughts on GL?

[Something_Smart]

Reeks of what?

[Something_Smart]

Why are you worried about me setting up a mislynch? In your world, Java will probably flip town, and then we will lynch WhiteLight and you will be happy.

[Something_Smart]

^this does have a point
I'll feel way worse about GL if Java flips town.

[Something_Smart]

It's not really hypocritical... if Java flips scum like I think he will then GL is scummy, but if WL ends up being scum then GL is very scummy.

However I will agree (and this isn't the first time this has happened) that I was stalling mostly because I was afraid to end the day. I'll definitely take a good look at things tomorrow and if you are town and Java flips scum you might not necessarily be mislynched. I think I'll be able to sort you better when you're under serious pressure.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think he's planning to push me tomorrow though.

[Something_Smart]

This game just went from a mess to even more of a mess.

I think the BBT kill was to eliminate opposition to a WL lynch? But it could just be WIFOM...

And I'm still having trouble forming solid townreads because my townread threshold has been so low. Gah

Mollie what exactly did you want to hear from me? And why didn't you want to hear from Mav?

[Something_Smart]

^wrong

[Something_Smart]

Also @mollie I hate to self-meta but it's the truth: I never get NK'd. The only time I've ever been NK'd was when I replaced into an obvtown slot on D3 of a newbie when the other two townies were obviously going to crossvote.

[Something_Smart]

Also @mollie I hate to self-meta but it's the truth: I never get NK'd. The only time I've ever been NK'd was when I replaced into an obvtown slot on D3 of a newbie when the other two townies were obviously going to crossvote.

see what is baking my noodle with this response is why are you not asking me why I protected mav over you

I mean there is an obvs answer but that is where my mind wld go if I were in your shoes

But you just said that you were more confident about Mav than about me... I don't think that's a question most people would think of in my position?

[Something_Smart]

Somebody unvote GL please.

I'm sorry my access is mobile and spotty until Monday so I probably won't be able to really look at this before then. But I will say that the scum-shotty that I wasn't seeing as much before, I am starting to see now.

I am in favor of a massclaim today. With 2 PRs already claimed I think it's better to force scum to decide their claims before LYLO. (Also interesting is that GL didn't claim.)

[Something_Smart]

Cakez what are your thoughts on a massclaim?

[Something_Smart]

If that happens then we'll lose nothing, the scum won't be able to wriggle out of a lynch by fakeclaiming in LYLO, and WL and Mollie will be basically confirmed.

[Something_Smart]

Mollie are you okay with a massclaim?

I think the ideal order should be GL - shotty - Cakez - me - Mav (then Mollie if she wants to clarify her claim).

[Something_Smart]

Why didn't you claim immediately?

In fact, why didn't you claim yesterday?

[Something_Smart]

First question is rephrased as why didn't you claim as soon as WL claimed the result on you?

Second question: I'm sure you can give a more detailed answer than that. Your claim would have forced a 1v1 with WL, why did you just sit there and passively yell "WL is scum" while Java was being mislynched?

[Something_Smart]

ok so answer the question. I don't care about boats of information I care about reasons.

I don't see any reason why you wouldn't claim immediately after WL's result today as town. I DO see reasons why you wouldn't claim yesterday but I think they are outweighed by the reasons to claim and I want to know why you thought differently.

And finally, 440 does not at all sound like somebody with the capacity to directly counterclaim WL's role.

[Something_Smart]

Ok I can't see GL being town here at all. I'm ready to vote him when the massclaim is finished. Shotty should claim next.

[Something_Smart]

............

you're saying you think this game could have included a rolecop, a cop and a tracker?

[Something_Smart]

Shotty, claim.

Also yes tracker + cop would be ridiculous. Besides GL's whole premise for his fakeclaim was that those two roles couldn't coexist.

[Something_Smart]

eventually

[Something_Smart]

God that would be a swingy role.
Cakez should claim, although he basically already claimed VT.

[Something_Smart]

Shotty, why did YOU not claim yesterday?

[Something_Smart]

Oh also Carl Grimes VT.

[Something_Smart]

Mafia goon
Mafia PGO
Town 1-shot Rolecop
Town 2-shot Cop
Town Bodyguard
4 VTs

actually seems a bit scumsided. Maybe not because of the potential for conftowns.
Mav needs to claim also but I doubt he'll claim anything but VT.

[Something_Smart]

what makes you say that?

[Something_Smart]

that's such a scum mindset.

[Something_Smart]

true...
I still think you're scum though.

[Something_Smart]

Now that I revealed my alt in that game, I can say that I reread SirCakez and he's playing very similarly to his scumgame in Cocktail party and very different from his towngame in Basic UPick and White Flag.

Yet... I'm not sure if he would bus GL that hard...
Right now I think if GL flips scum we almost definitely win by lynching in <shotty, Cakez>. If GL flips town then it will probably lead to a 1v1 in LYLO between shotty and Cakez with me or Mav as the deciding vote. I'd be okay with a hammer because I find that scenario less likely and there's no need to think about it now.

[Something_Smart]

Okay, did some reading.
I'm like 70% confident it's GL/Cakez. I could actually see shotty being some kind of 3p PGO.
If GL flips scum, we just lynch <Cakez, shotty>. If GL flips town then we'll need to seriously evaluate but I still think Cakez is scum in that case.
VOTE: GL I'm about ready to do this. No one visit shotty of course.

[Something_Smart]

That's just it Cakez. Besides playing very similar to the way you did in Cocktail party, you voted GL and called him scum but you never showed interest in actually lynching him. In fact you said if Java flipped town you would reevaluate GL.

By "but ok" does that mean you support my plan?

[Something_Smart]

wait what's wrong with that?

[Something_Smart]

Well if GL flips town, then obviously we lynch WL tomorrow. As a bodyguard, you will likely die, and odds are the other death will be one of me or Mav.

[Something_Smart]

Well if GL flips town, then obviously we lynch WL tomorrow. As a bodyguard, you will likely die, and odds are the other death will be one of me or Mav.

how wld there be "another death"?

We lynch GL. He flips town. You probably die tonight.
Tomorrow we lynch WL, and somebody else (me or Mav) dies that night.
We are left in 3p LYLO with (most likely) me or Mav being the deciding vote between Cakez and shotty. Sorry if that was unclear.

[Something_Smart]

...the only lynch I lined up was on the player who would be confscum in that scenario.
And yes, the game is basically solved if GL flips scum, so the only scenario I'm worried about is if he flips town.

Tbh my current thoughts are Gl/Cakez scumteam with shotty possibly being 3p? (God I wonder if he's a jester... I mean posts like this one^ are just blatantly anti-town.)

[Something_Smart]

It was an answer to mollie's question in 777, which is discussing the hypothetical scenario where GL is town. The if was in the previous post.

[Something_Smart]

lol

[Something_Smart]

So am I.

[Something_Smart]

But why'd you votepark if you didn't want to lynch him?

And do you support the plan then? Who is your top pick for GL's partner?

[Something_Smart]

I did want to lynch him....
What plan?
Currently Shotty

Plan:
Lynch GL
If he flips scum then lynch you followed by shotty
If he flips town then lynch WL followed by either you or shotty, pending reevaluation

[Something_Smart]

@Cakez: the obvious reason being that your top two scumreads get lynched? how confident are you in your reads?

@shotty: I think you should read the game, that question has been answered.

[Something_Smart]

I reread his posts and realized he was playing his scumgame.

I also got the idea that maybe shotty was a jester. Walking Dead games usually include some non-Normal role, and in any event shotty probably has it.

[Something_Smart]

yeah that's my strongest argument against it: you would probably have won by now

[Something_Smart]

Because I'm pretty sure Guilty is scum.

I agree that the jester does not seem all that likely, I just really don't see shotty being town.

[Something_Smart]

He might be, and I might be overplaying this in my mind, but the GL/Cakez interactions were really bad, and shotty's game initially did not look like his scumgame.
I'm very confident that GL's partner is one of those two, so it really shouldn't matter, I just don't find him as scummy as some people do, just blatantly antitown.

[Radja]

@mod I'm voting Guilty

fixed! Thanks!

[Something_Smart]

Yeah it's still GL/shotty, Smart is just being paranoid and also has no idea how to read me (which he knows )

Eww

VOTE: guiltylion
we are absolutely lynching WL if this flips town tho

Thank you, Captain Obvious

if gl townflips and WL scumflips then yes SS goes into the scum pile
let's see this flip first though

Eww

SS ALWAYS scumreads me. I can't remember a time he's townread me before
Which is why I think he could just be backwards town

Lol. How about Cocktail party, the one time when you were scum? I'm starting to figure you out: pings me = town, nothing to be worried about = scum.

*taps fingers*

*tap dances*

*plays Taps*

[Something_Smart]

really? how could he have ever expected a town flip?
I'm totally fine with lynching shotty tomorrow but I think the odds are AT LEAST even that Cakez is GL's partner.

[Something_Smart]

so lol let me get this straight
your "slight paranoia" was so strong that if GL had even managed to write up a fake readlist then you would have changed your mind?

[Something_Smart]

Idc which way WL wants to play it, them suiciding on shotty is mechanically equivalent to mislynching shotty and them being NK'd.

[Something_Smart]

Mod: I'll be V/LA until Monday. I should still have some access though.

[Something_Smart]

I'd just like to say that 422 was a low blow and it really annoyed me. It's kind of good that you flipped scum because it means that that post was part of your scum persona, and not your actual personality.

After rereading, I'm thinking shotty is GL's partner and Cakez is 3p. I'm fine lynching shotty today, but I'm waiting on whether or not WL got a result, and whether or not their claim to target shotty was a bluff.

[Something_Smart]

he has to be a jester, otherwise selfhammering would be against his wincon.

anyway, that makes perfect sense with the setup.

[Something_Smart]

...the only lynch I lined up was on the player who would be confscum in that scenario.
And yes, the game is basically solved if GL flips scum, so the only scenario I'm worried about is if he flips town.

Tbh my current thoughts are Gl/Cakez scumteam with shotty possibly being 3p? (God I wonder if he's a jester... I mean posts like this one^ are just blatantly anti-town.)

Also lol I called it

[Something_Smart]

Yeah. I wouldn't have expected you to be jester after you survived day 1.

Although the fact that WL's results came in the form of town/not town definitely tipped me off to a 3p.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think it matters whether or not shotty can selfhammer. If he is in fact not lynched we just lynch Cakez.
Otherwise we lynch Cakez tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

ok

[Something_Smart]

@mollie:
what I think is going on in the game: shotty is jester who can (and did) selfhammer and Cakez is scum.
I never meta'd you because your claim makes perfect sense in the setup so I strongly believe you to be town.
My alt is Vox Dei, I only played in one game with it, but that game is important because it's my only scum meta of SirCakez.

[Something_Smart]

@mollie:
what I think is going on in the game: shotty is jester who can (and did) selfhammer and Cakez is scum.
I never meta'd you because your claim makes perfect sense in the setup so I strongly believe you to be town.
My alt is Vox Dei, I only played in one game with it, but that game is important because it's my only scum meta of SirCakez.

same question to you: why do you think that wl and I are alive?

SirCakez is obviously shaping up to face me in LYLO. He gets to choose who out of <Mav, mollie, WL> makes the choice, and he wants it to be WL for whatever reason. (At first thought I would say it's because of how forcefully I called WL scum before.) He knew shotty would be lynched today, so it didn't matter who among Mav/you he killed last night and who he kills tonight. So that part probably was WIFOM, or maybe leaving it up to chance because he thought you might protect Mav.

[Something_Smart]

oh lmao guilty you thought I was a traitor or 3p? hahahahaha (I'm happy you were scared of me though a little surprised you didn't mention me as an easy mislynch)

also sorry cakez add that to the list of times I misread you, though I expected a 3p based on the setup (so did GL, apparently) and I did decide shotty was probably GL's partner by day 3.

I think the setup was a bit townsided in the absence of meta, but the 2-investigative "counterclaim" situation we had probably balanced it. It was, however, pretty swingy, and I wonder if some swing could have been removed by informing WL of the existence of a framer. That way, they don't get instalynched after their guilty flips town, but scum might be able to talk their way out of a true guilty as well.

[Something_Smart]

oh also

@Radja you have mollie as 1-shot BP in the OP but she was really 1-shot BP BG

, not that it REALLY matters.
And yeah thanks for modding Radja!