Open 643: Kill All Townies! (Game Over)

[LicketyQuickety]

Telling that her Scum reads all the sudden have a lot to say about it.

And Chip Butty, but I'm not letting him get mislynched just like I'm not letting hiplop get mislynched. (Or Almost50 for that matter. Who else is mislynch-bait this game I need to shut down?)

ME!!! I am lynch bait like you wouldn't believe. Don't know why you don't know this about me. *mumbles something incoherently*

[pistachi0n]

Yeah. Ranger is scum. So what if she said Jae was town? That doesn't mean much.

[LicketyQuickety]

Yeah. Ranger is scum. So what if she said Jae was town? That doesn't mean much.

Make a case. Ranger is making a case on their Scum reads later. I expect the same from you. I may be willing to reevaluate my read on you, but that doesn't mean I am giving you a pass.

[Smithereens]

@Smithereens: Don't you think Ranger is looking scummy?

No.

You're basically calling her scum for switching her vote around haphazardly. Not only is this not completely non-AI, it is closely consistent with the conclusions she is reaching. You should be reading town from that behaviour.

[Smithereens]

Ok, the posts by Ranger on these last few pages scream that SHE is mafia. She's wanting to exclusively lynch werewolves, when either scum side flipping is good for us, and we have two lynches. There's no reason for the hyper focus. We can eliminate the mafia today possibly if Ranger is right about Kop, but Ranger doesn't push that. Now Bellaphant is suggesting Ranger has a scumread on her she hasn't pushed. Then there's the ridiculous notion that high activity = Werewolf Godfather. Why not mafia godfather, unless Ranger claims to know who that is. The lack of clear reads from Ranger reminds me of when we were scum together.

VOTE: Ranger

We're looking for werewolves today because the mafia just lost their doctor, and the werewolf faction is going to come out on top unless we kill one of theirs as well. Iow we want both scum teams to lose and Ranger did explain this earlier, which supposedly you would have seen. Tbh this reaction is probably what I would expect a werewolf to have upon been discovered -your first response is to assume that the other scum team has successfully nailed you.

[Ranger]

Tbh this reaction is probably what I would expect a werewolf to have upon been discovered -your first response is to assume that the other scum team has successfully nailed you.

This.

[DixC]

@Smithereens: Don't you think Ranger is looking scummy?

No.

You're basically calling her scum for switching her vote around haphazardly. Not only is this not completely non-AI, it is closely consistent with the conclusions she is reaching. You should be reading town from that behaviour.

Reading scum of those who do things that town would never do makes sense, i.e. Seer/cop hunting, reading town from something Mafia wouldn't do makes no sense because Mafia has reason to act not-Mafia while town had no reason to act scum.

[LicketyQuickety]

@Smithereens: Don't you think Ranger is looking scummy?

No.

You're basically calling her scum for switching her vote around haphazardly. Not only is this not completely non-AI, it is closely consistent with the conclusions she is reaching. You should be reading town from that behaviour.

Reading scum of those who do things that town would never do makes sense, i.e. Seer/cop hunting, reading town from something Mafia wouldn't do makes no sense because Mafia has reason to act not-Mafia while town had no reason to act scum.

And you call yourself an experienced player??? Sorry, but playing as Scum is hardly about acting Townie.

[Smithereens]

@Smithereens: Don't you think Ranger is looking scummy?

No.

You're basically calling her scum for switching her vote around haphazardly. Not only is this not completely non-AI, it is closely consistent with the conclusions she is reaching. You should be reading town from that behaviour.

Reading scum of those who do things that town would never do makes sense, i.e. Seer/cop hunting, reading town from something Mafia wouldn't do makes no sense because Mafia has reason to act not-Mafia while town had no reason to act scum.

I recommend dropping your crystaline views on how scum supposedly behave. There is no objective play-style for scum. If we follow this logic you're effectively claiming that every instance where a player changes their reads 3 times in as many posts, they are always scum. Nope.

[pistachi0n]

Yeah. Ranger is scum. So what if she said Jae was town? That doesn't mean much.

Make a case. Ranger is making a case on their Scum reads later. I expect the same from you. I may be willing to reevaluate my read on you, but that doesn't mean I am giving you a pass.

So the thing that bugged me about Ranger is back when she was voting you--and she said it was a fact you are the alpha werewolf. No matter how good of a player somebody is, they cannot be absolutely certain that Someone Is This Role And It Is A Fact from posts in the public forum alone. That's impossible, it's the nature of the game. So I was side-eyeing that, and somebody else said that her acting like the seer might be a ploy to bait out the real seer, and that made sense to me. It explained the weird behavior and also why Ranger wasn't acting like herself in the early game (less engaged, etc.) But that backfired and people were too suspicious of her, it seems she's trying a new tactic.

[Ranger]

But that backfired and people were too suspicious of her, it seems she's trying a new tactic.

You know, as much as I say, I don't know what my scumplay is...

...I'm pretty sure I can confidently say what it isn't, and trying a new tactic is not something I can ever see myself doing.
I'm stubborn as town and proud of it; that stubbornness doesn't suddenly vanish as scum. It takes a different form. In this case, not changing tactics.

Anyway, I did say that the longer post was coming.
I'm not giving a more specific timetable than this, but...it'll happen.
After my modded game is back up running again.

[Ranger]

Titus=shotty=creature
NotMafia=sad

For the purposes of this post, I am not going to be pointing out individual posts which look scummy, unless they are in direct reference to a vote. This is mostly interactions, and how I got where I did.

So the reason hiplop's not scum can be traced back as far as 27. That did not read as a bus by House. You get more, in 170 and 171 among others, but you get the idea. If he were to be scum, it would be werewolf. 209 (off of 177) only furthers it.

That's the first thing before the first votecount, which has dual wagons which are both on town:

Almost50: hiplop, KuroiXHF, JaeReed, Charloux, Creature (5)
karnos: LicketyQuickety, Chip Butty, Smithereens, sad1492 (4)

On the Almost50 wagon, you've got two players flipped town. hiplop isn't mafia and I think is town. Charloux is a townread. That leaves Creature (now Titus) sticking out like a sore thumb.
For the karnos wagon, you have {LicketyQuickety, sad}, with sad now being Not_Mafia. Neither of them look good either.

While Bellaphant's 75 might make you inclined to think that she's scum with House (and therefore mafia), his reply in 76, along with her reply in 77, told me otherwise. This is why I firmly believe that Bellaphant is either town or a werewolf. (Her individual posts are what make me lean towards the latter.)

House also voted DixC in 116, producing similar not-mafia interactions. (These are later strengthened in 618.)

Throwaway note, but 149 tells you all pistachi0n isn't mafia, but you'd already know that off of play if you were paying close enough attention.
But anyway...we begin to get the formation of the LicketyQuickety wagon:

LicketyQuickety: hiplop, KuroiXHF, Ranger, JaeReed, Charloux (5)

Two flipped town, and I know myself town as well. hiplop and Charloux both were reacting to the same thing I did. This was one of the main reasons I wanted a LicketyQuickety flip, because if he flipped scum, it would help confirm my townreads on them were not unjustified.

One reason that I thought {Bellaphant, LicketyQuickety} would be paired together was her constant noncommittal defense of him: "LQ's scummy, but I don't know..." is the classical way to brush off a scumread on a scumbuddy in multiball.

Kop is obviously mafia because 217 is literally his one and only contribution to the game. He supports lynching hiplop (again, hiplop is not mafia), and defends House strongly as town. His inclusion of Bella as a weak townread actually serves as a reinforcement to me that they're not aligned together, since I don't think he'd put another scumbuddy in there unnecessarily, as it'd draw too much attention to their team. Also, if you want proof from the House end, 236 serves as a nice indicator that he was defending Kop.

LicketyQuickety: KuroiXHF, Ranger, JaeReed, Charloux, Bellaphant, House (6)

The interesting thing here is that hiplop had jumped off of the LQ wagon, and LQ was defending hiplop. Then, we get this, where House and Bellaphant both jump on for the same reason. This was what told me LicketyQuickety was not likely mafia. It is also more proof that Bellaphant and House are not scum together, since scum aren't going to both hop on like that. In hindsight, this probably means (and should have told me) LicketyQuickety was town, but I didn't see it then.

The point I'm more making is that I wanted to see what LicketyQuickety would flip.

This brings us to the unofficial L-1: karnos (known town), and Chip Butty (who I think is town).

The one and only thing that makes me doubt my scum callouts is seeing 410 with 413. (Though I'll note 412 does have the reads on House and LicketyQuickety that are suspect.) The reaction in 427 did look scum-scum though.

LicketyQuickety revealed he wasn't scum with Creature with posts such as 432, though the conversation dates back further than that post.

If I had to guess, Not_Mafia would be the third mafiate because of things like 461, but it's not definitive. 463 did support it.
And in that range, 462 suggests Creature is not mafia.

Also, you can point to any spot and get this, but to confirm: things like 569 show why Chip Butty is not mafia.

The main doubt I have on DixC being scum comes from 709, from Bellaphant, when combined with House's vote. (Not to mention, Kop's callout, in places like 732.)

Another reason I wanted a LicketyQuickety flip?

DixC: Not_Mafia, House, Bellaphant, JaeReed (4)

This, when you add in Kuroi's vote, then LicketyQuickety's vote (and much much later my own), gets you the peak of the DixC wagon.

I wanted to see LicketyQuickety's alignment, because I felt his flip would be a strong indicator for what DixC would be.

It's around here that the JaeReed wagon forms as a counter:

JaeReed: Kop, hiplop, Smithereens, Almost50, DixC, pistachi0n (6)
DixC: Not_Mafia, House, Bellaphant, JaeReed, KuroiXHF (5)

Kop there is the mafia on JaeReed, but who would be the werewolf if not DixC?

We also get shotty's 782, where he heavily defends DixC and votes JaeReed.

Furthering my scumteam theory, we get 805, where Bellaphant is looking for a non-DixC wagon, 807 is a hilariously scum-induced readslist, and 808 reads as scum-scum interactions, as in, same-team scum-scum interactions.

Starting the day, we get a quick wagon on DixC. Not_Mafia's my guess for third mafiate, and votes. Kop (who is obviously mafia) also votes. Again, it's probably them as mafia legitimately scumhunting. With Kop switching to LicketyQuickety in 932, I don't think LicketyQuickety is mafia even more, now.


Which brings us to the current gamestate.
I'm sorry this is a bit scattered. I'm having trouble focusing at the moment. If you can't make sense of it, I'll give a summary of it all tomorrow.
The important bits were mostly described already though.
DixC is a wolfread. Titus is a wolfread. Bellaphant is a wolfread. LicketyQuickety could be either, but I feel is unlikely mafia. Kop is obviously mafia. I think Not_Mafia is the third mafiate.

[Titus]

@Smithereens: Don't you think Ranger is looking scummy?

No.

You're basically calling her scum for switching her vote around haphazardly. Not only is this not completely non-AI, it is closely consistent with the conclusions she is reaching. You should be reading town from that behaviour.

Reading scum of those who do things that town would never do makes sense, i.e. Seer/cop hunting, reading town from something Mafia wouldn't do makes no sense because Mafia has reason to act not-Mafia while town had no reason to act scum.

And you call yourself an experienced player??? Sorry, but playing as Scum is hardly about acting Townie.

That's what works for me. If it makes no sense to do as alignment X, then the player is not likely alignment X.

[Titus]

Ok, the posts by Ranger on these last few pages scream that SHE is mafia. She's wanting to exclusively lynch werewolves, when either scum side flipping is good for us, and we have two lynches. There's no reason for the hyper focus. We can eliminate the mafia today possibly if Ranger is right about Kop, but Ranger doesn't push that. Now Bellaphant is suggesting Ranger has a scumread on her she hasn't pushed. Then there's the ridiculous notion that high activity = Werewolf Godfather. Why not mafia godfather, unless Ranger claims to know who that is. The lack of clear reads from Ranger reminds me of when we were scum together.

VOTE: Ranger

We're looking for werewolves today because the mafia just lost their doctor, and the werewolf faction is going to come out on top unless we kill one of theirs as well. Iow we want both scum teams to lose and Ranger did explain this earlier, which supposedly you would have seen. Tbh this reaction is probably what I would expect a werewolf to have upon been discovered -your first response is to assume that the other scum team has successfully nailed you.

Not the right approach. This is nowhere near lylo. Scumread me all you want, but Ranger and I know from Open 627 that hunting for one particular team and letting obvious scum go is a recipe for failure. I'll admit I am not fully caught up on the game but Ranger ignoring the chance to take out an entire team is exactly what mafia want. Mafia want the attention on the werewolves.

I don't care which team flips first. If it ain't town, it dies.

We eliminate all mafia, then we have a vig, a cop, and a bunch of townies. Depending on crosskills = sure fire town loss.

[Titus]

To be clear, maf flips ideal, but hunting solely for mafia = bad. If you do hunt for a side, best to reduce kpn. That means mafia lynch. Ranger knows scum generally suck at cross killing and sells that as the ideal scenario. I don't think so.

[Bellaphant]

Ranger, you could've just written 'pre flip associatives' all over that and had the same impact with a hell of a lot less words.

I'm almost ready to 1v1 you so that if I get lynched my town flip will stop the nonsense.

[Rob14]

Vote Count #2.4:

Ranger:

LicketyQuickety, pistachi0n, Chip Butty, Titus (4)

LicketyQuickety:

Kop (1)

hiplop:

DixC (1)

Almost50:

Bellaphant (1)

pistachi0n:

Not_Mafia (1)

DixC:

Charloux (1)

Titus:

Ranger (1)

Not Voting:

hiplop, Smithereens, Almost50

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-07-20 20:00:00)

[Rob14]

Kop, Charloux, hiplop, and Not_Mafia have been prodded. Immediately seeking replacements for hiplop, who had mentioned replacing out if he didn't catch up before the site crash, and for Not_Mafia, who has three prods.

[Titus]

Bella, there's a seat on the Ranger wagon with your name on it.

[Not_Mafia]

I would really like a flip

[LicketyQuickety]

Ranger, you could've just written 'pre flip associatives' all over that and had the same impact with a hell of a lot less words.

I'm almost ready to 1v1 you so that if I get lynched my town flip will stop the nonsense.

Err... we have had flips, so its not pre-flip anymore.

[Bellaphant]

.........did you read her post? I'm scum (and so are other people) because of flips WE DON'T KNOW. LIKE YOURS. AND HIPLOPS. AND DIXC....AND KOP AND...

JESUS.

why, seriously, are you defending that?

VOTE: ranger

do you know what pisses me off the most about that post, though? If Ranger had tried to read me at any fucking point in the game, then she wouldn't be making that post. She hasn't analysed things as they happened, or asked questions about shit she doesn't understand. It's. not. real.

[Bellaphant]

l-2

[LicketyQuickety]

UNVOTE:

[Almost50]

I'm STUPID!

I TOTALLY FORGOT that we had THREE Nk's, so the VIG shot could NOT have been blocked! You know when I told Ranger not to explain her read on LQ?? It was because -after thinking it opver for a couple of days no less- i came to the conclusion she was the Town Vig, shot LQ and he survived, thus she deduced he was protected by the only Doctor alive in game. As I said, I'm STUPID!!!