Mini 1851 : Order of the Stick Mafia - Epilogue

[Leonshade]

@MOI: V/LA until Sunday the 13th.

Townreading Inf for his early play, don't see the scum motivation in his play. I think he's immediately scumhunting and trying to get the game going.

VOTE: kraska

[Leonshade]

Back from V/LA, catching up tomorrow.

[Leonshade]

I had a special interest in sorting Infinity first, as I've had multiple games where I scumread town!Infinity before, including Typhon Mafia, where I basically tunneled him all D1 until I got lynched. I think I have a better grasp on his playstyle now. But my read is not up to date, as I'm not caught up yet.

[Leonshade]

Above in reference to why my one post so far was commenting on my townread on Inf.

[Leonshade]

I don't think my inactivity needs defending, as it's related to out-of-game reasons. Just wanted to post content but too lazy to read right now.

[Leonshade]

cool beans

I just want to call this Leon/Infinity/Grey and bank it but its never that easy, is it

Infinity: would you like the run down on why leon reads scummy?

I know I would.

This wagon on me took me by surprise, pressuring the lurker is all fine and dandy but it looks like all of you are really scumreading me. I feel like I haven't even gotten the chance to do anything and you people are over-analyzing my posts when they're just half-assed attempts to put up at least some game-relevant content so my slot isn't completely useless during the first week of the game.

I skimmed the first six pages of the game and got a read on the one player in this game I have more than one game game of experience with, then came back from a weekend-long bender tired and hungover, deciding that I would want to say something relevant to the game instead of prod dodging. Maybe the post was bad, but it doesn't make me scum. If I was scum I would've pulled what GreyICE just did and pull three names out of a hat and assign town/scum labels to them (I'm not scumreading GreyICE because I buy that as his playstyle, but giving out reads without explanations is still annoying and useless, especially if there's a vote attached)

I don't know why you think I felt the need to "defend" my Infinity townread, when most of you don't seem to be scumreading him either. I don't know why I'm being scumread when I haven't done anything all game. I don't know who's scum yet because I haven't read half the thread. Wisdom kept scumreading posts I thought were innocuous in Micro 647 so I think he's mistaken town here, too, but there can't seriously be five people who have me as their top scumread.

Inf's defense of me reads as genuine so he's still town. I'm also townreading Kagami for his early play, his interactions with Infinity felt genuine.

[Leonshade]

@MOI: V/LA until Sunday the 13th.

Townreading Inf for his early play, don't see the scum motivation in his play. I think he's immediately scumhunting and trying to get the game going.

VOTE: kraska

Hey bud explain the vote

RVS.

leonshade hey bud explain that weird vote

i can buy leon as scum. i dont think he can ever convincingly explain that vote on me tbh

You care about that vote too much. Townpoints.

I've played 3 other games with town!leon and his first post was always scummy

I'll never find out why this happens.

P-edit: Feel free to keep scumreading me, I'll find the scum on my wagon myself.

[Leonshade]

Kagami's reasoning is seriously "there's three people townreading Inf, one must be scum!" jfc

So Kagami either has townreads on Wisdom and Wraith now or they're scum.

[Leonshade]

I've already been using "genuine" in my townreads a lot, but

Tammy

reads really genuine to me.

Nacho

strikes me as a very good and experienced player (between his own posts and what other people are saying here), so I will be reluctant to give them an easy townread. For now, I'm ready to townlean them for his general play.

Wisdom's SR on me makes a lot more sense now that I know his reads, PoE + what he perceives as defensiveness are reasonable for a scumread (and I will admit my last couple posts were defensive, but I still don't see why my posts regarding Inf were defensive).

I don't feel strongly about

Wraith's

posting as scummy. Kinda leaning town on him, really. I see where his thought processes are coming from, even if I don't always agree with them. Nothing scummy in GreyICE's posts so far, either.

I haven't read

SirCakez

yet, his walls made my eyes glaze over. Will try to sort him later.

I could see

farside

as scum for going aggressively after my top townread in Infinity. Going aggressive, then apologizing and toning it down could be scum trying to placate people too.

Nothing caught my eye with

PeregrineV

or

Bulbazak

yet.

Almost forgot about

shaddowez

when putting together his post. His posts seem like a bunch of white noise. The questions he's asking are all a bunch of softballs that never lead to anything of interest to the game. And, uhhh, despite claiming to have two scumreads, he still hasn't moved his vote from RVS. Yeah, this seems like scum trying to not rock the boat.

Town

Infinity
Wisdom
Tammy
Kagami

Townlean

Nacho
kraska
Wraith

Null

SirCakez (need to read)
Bulbazal
PeregrineV

Scumlean

farside

Scum

shaddowez

[Leonshade]

@Kagami: If your vote on me isn't due to the "Inf townread is suspicious, one has to be scum" PoE, then what is your reason for voting me?

[Leonshade]

VOTE: shaddowez

[Leonshade]

Right, I forgot my wagon started after that post.

But you also expressed a scumread on me in 202, what was your reason for scumreading me then?

[Leonshade]

Correct.

Why? He was as defensive in the previous ones too. What's different now?

He was a little defensive about a small issue, now he's showing a level of concern and a level of words dedicated to defending himself that wasn't there before. The issue isn't defending himself, townies can defend themselves, it's the overreaction to his wagon. Town would probably approach it like "I'm suspicious that 4 people just jumped on a lurker wagon" or "Can you guys explain why you scumread me" not what he did.

My reaction was due to a mix of stress and genuine frustration and powerlessness that I was facing a large wagon when I hadn't even read the game yet. But defending my defensiveness is just going to be an endless cycle, focusing on scumhunting now.

[Leonshade]

Blatant reaction test.

[Leonshade]

Wisdom's a sexy shoeless god of war?

[Leonshade]

I also thought Wraith was softing Belkar.

VOTE: GreyICE

L-2.

[Leonshade]

I also thought Wraith was softing Belkar.

VOTE: GreyICE

L-2.

He could be softing the cat.

Unvote: GREYICE

Too fast, people, too fast.

Hmm, still haven't scumread him otherwise.

VOTE: shaddowez

[Leonshade]

Him being GreyICE.

[Leonshade]

I also thought Wraith was softing Belkar.

VOTE: GreyICE

L-2.

He could be softing the cat.

Unvote: GREYICE

Too fast, people, too fast.

Hmm, still haven't scumread him otherwise.

VOTE: shaddowez

Huh?
Pedit: on the contrary imo it looks like hes dissociating himself from a potential mislynch

What are you confused about?

[Leonshade]

"still haven't scumread him otherwise" not sure if i get it or it's worded weirdly

I thought we'd caught the slot lying, but that's not certain yet.

[Leonshade]

Sigh.

My townlean on the slot was because I thought he was softing Belkar.

When I found out he wasn't, my reaction was that he lied.

The Scruffy thing could've been a weird quirk, but my townread on the slot is gone.

[Leonshade]

Ugh, I'm going down a rabbit hole. Alright, I've genuinely been trying to scumhunt and my other reads are genuine, but this GreyICE/Belkar BS thing was just survival instinct kicking in. Because I'm not strictly town, I'm town-aligned 3P.

Claim: Roy Greenhilt, Modified Lynching Informed Jack of All Trades.

Xykon is mod-confirmed to me to be in the game.

I have three one-shot abilities. These are a one-shot Role Name cop (AKA my role name is Roy Greenhilt), one-shot night vig and one-shot night BP (so I won't survive a stab).

I win if Xykon has been killed by any means, and will leave the game.

My fakeclaim is the same role, except as town and without the part about being a lyncher.

It's pretty exhausting to simultaneously scumhunt and still have to lie and worry about survival as part of my win condition. Our win conditions align and I can be useful to town, so I hope you don't just instalynch me.

[Leonshade]

holy crap that role is powerful.

Around L-3 or L-4? I claimed now because I feel that if I went to L-1, it would be easier for town to think that I'm scum trying to buy time with an elaborate claim (or for scum to pretend to do so to hammer me).

[Leonshade]

Because I leave the game when I win? I'm still 3P.

[Leonshade]

My fakeclaim's title is "Town Informed Jack of All Trades", the idea being that I could pretend to be town and surprise, I was a lyncher!

[Leonshade]

Town-aligned is my own words, my role is basically what Kagami just said.

[Leonshade]

I would lynch shaddow over GreyICE.

But I have a feeling my opinion is largely irrelevant now.

[Leonshade]

I could make a case on shaddowez over Grey, but it's just that his posting is a whole bunch of white noise and he hasn't moved his vote since RVS despite claiming to have scumreads.

Grey's slot is null for me.

[Leonshade]

It makes sense for Roy to be a lyncher because Roy's entire quest is to avenge his father by killing Xykon.

I believe Tammy's claim, and I believe that Wisdom is Belkar, too.

There's zero reason to lynch me today, I think scum is getting antsy.

[Leonshade]

Roy is a GOOD guy he's not the type who would kill Xykon and them ne like "fuck you guys I'm going home". I'm also not caught up yet and if you spoil me I'm crying and then replacing out, the main point is three town vigs is a bitter pill to swallow.

My flavor bit says that while my quest is to fight Evil, my priority is ending Xykon's unlife.

Roy's probably a lyncher because Magna wanted to subvert expectations with the role, giving flavor that seems obvtown a third party role instead.

[Leonshade]

what if i told you that leon is not the only bulletproof person in the game rn ^_^
restricted b.f. mind you...but still
no way scum are pitted against this much power

You shouldn't have claimed that.

But if you were scum, you wouldn't be claiming that while advocating for my lynch.

[Leonshade]

Leon what happens to you if Xykon gets vigged?

I win and leave the game.

[Leonshade]

Leon what happens to you if Xykon gets vigged?

I win and leave the game.

Seriously? I thought you had to lynch him lol

No, it wouldn't make sense for me to have a vig shot if I did. The role has "Modified Lynching" in it for a reason.

[Leonshade]

And yes, the role specifies that any way Xykon dies counts as me winning.

[Leonshade]

Finally read SirCakez's ISO, didn't seem scummy to me. I mostly agree with his reads, except for the Wisdom scumread (and we have Bulbazak's corpse to prove that town can SR Wisdom).

Here's the five slots I'm almost certain are town:

Wisdom
Infinity
Kagami
Tammy
kraska

I think these five players should have the most say in who I should vig (though they are free to add others to their townblock).

[Leonshade]

@Mod: I will be on V/LA from Friday to Sunday, that's the 18th to the 20th.

[Leonshade]

shaddow opposes Grey's plan because I get to take a shot, but I'll do that in every plan so he should be advocating my lynch.

[Leonshade]

That's not what you said.

I'll start by apologizing and saying I suck.

I've tried keeping up, so some of this is off the top of my head. I agree with Wisdom's choice of the kill, although the results aren't what I would have hoped for. I was scum reading Bulba, and was going to make a case next time I was on, which is now irrelevant.

I'm not sure I buy Leon's role, at least not as a "town-aligned" 3p. I find it much more likely he's an SK with a fakeclaim that makes it sound less individual win.

Regardless, I disagree with Wisdom's plan (and no, not just because either scenario has me dead - if my death gives info to town, so be it), but because I think it gives way too much power to one person - leon. Ultimately he gets to choose whether or not he's going to listen to the lynchee, and even if it means his death he could severely hurt town with a PR shot.

As for the multiple claims, I agree that Tammy is the towniest of the claims, but that lines up with my reads in general.

Regarding my vote, I thought I took it off RVS but was waiting for a VC before I voted. Grey hasn't done anything to improve my read of Wraith's slot, so since there was a recent VC I'm confident doing this.

VOTE: GreyICE

"It gives way too much power to one person - leon."

That is the case even if we go with the town consensus instead of a single person.

[Leonshade]

Wait there's a third vig claim?

I missed it too, apparently.

Tammy claimed in her latest post.

[Leonshade]

I find it interesting you didn't notice.

[Leonshade]

Finally read SirCakez's ISO, didn't seem scummy to me. I mostly agree with his reads, except for the Wisdom scumread (and we have Bulbazak's corpse to prove that town can SR Wisdom).

Here's the five slots I'm almost certain are town:

Wisdom
Infinity
Kagami
Tammy
kraska

I think these five players should have the most say in who I should vig (though they are free to add others to their townblock).

If you die first, and Xykon dies, do you still "win"?

I would assume not? That's not how lynchers usually work.

The PM says that I will win when Xykon has been killed by any means

and will then depart the game

, so my departure seems to be part of the win condition. I suppose it doesn't outright say I need to be alive.

[Leonshade]

I find it interesting you didn't notice.

Paragraph 7 of 8.

Gonna make this a little more complicated and sorry if I shouldn't be doing this, but I also have a vig shot. It's disabled right now, so I can't shoot until something happens to enable it. My first thought when wisdom stabbed was that Mafia were given a day kill or he's a day killing sk Because why would there be two vigs? But I don't know if the fact that I'm disabled and could quite possibly never shoot temper that a bit.

I did catch her battery was dying and she didn;t like the bubla vig shot.

It was easy to miss if you're just skimming, but the claim is very clear if you actually read her post. You not reading it is what I found interesting.

[Leonshade]

Leon what happens to you if Xykon gets vigged?

I win and leave the game.

Yeah this is too much. I'm not buying it.

I'll start by apologizing and saying I suck.

I've tried keeping up, so some of this is off the top of my head. I agree with Wisdom's choice of the kill, although the results aren't what I would have hoped for. I was scum reading Bulba, and was going to make a case next time I was on, which is now irrelevant.

I'm not sure I buy Leon's role, at least not as a "town-aligned" 3p. I find it much more likely he's an SK with a fakeclaim that makes it sound less individual win. Regardless, I disagree with Wisdom's plan (and no, not just because either scenario has me dead - if my death gives info to town, so be it), but because I think it gives way too much power to one person - leon. Ultimately he gets to choose whether or not he's going to listen to the lynchee, and even if it means his death he could severely hurt town with a PR shot.

As for the multiple claims, I agree that Tammy is the towniest of the claims, but that lines up with my reads in general.

Regarding my vote, I thought I took it off RVS but was waiting for a VC before I voted. Grey hasn't done anything to improve my read of Wraith's slot, so since there was a recent VC I'm confident doing this.

VOTE: GreyICE

Lol at this crappy attempt at distancing

Still happy with my vote on greyice.

I've started a scum read on peregrine but it's a bit weird why I feel the way I do.
I'm highly doubtful moi would place a Lyncher that can also shot as a role.

Hi cakez: what are your current reads?

Hi!
Townreads on most everyone except scumreads on GI and Shadow and nullscum reads from POE on Nacho and kraska

VOTE: grey

You doubt my claim, yet don't scumread me?

[Leonshade]

GreyICE, claim.

[Leonshade]

I remember.

If GreyICE doesn't claim in his next post, I will hammer.

[Leonshade]

I agree, but I'll give him one post.

[Leonshade]

Also I can't hammer on V/LA, so he has 12 hours.

[Leonshade]

Unless we just lynched Xykon, I will be shooting shaddowez tonight.

[Leonshade]

My vig was strongman. It's possible, and I'd say even probable, that scum have a way to stop nightkills.

My BP also mentions that it only stops "normal" nightkills, so it's possible that there's another strongman shot out there. But the wording could just be there because of my own strongman shot.

I haven't given thought to this game during my V/LA, so I have no thoughts on who's scum yet.

[Leonshade]

Leon do you know if you were shot?

I got no PM about the night. I assume that I wouldn't know even if I got shot.

[Leonshade]

what is the point for them having a way to stop nightkills if mine is a daykill and yours is strongman

just for tammy's which is already limited?

That's a good point, and whether or not scum can protect themselves doesn't really matter at the moment.

VOTE: kraska

Her push on Cakes is weak, she seems to be grasping at straws. Also, take a look at this from shaddowez:

shadow's play in the purge mafia came off as "playing safe" and he got scumread for it...im waiting for more content but i think shadow laying low and playing safe isnt particularly scummy for him

pedit: theres pere too i think

This post makes me hard townread kraska for reasons that I feel would be detrimental to town to say right now.

Scum softing a role-based reason for townreading kraska on D1. Yeah, kraska is scum.

[Leonshade]

kraska claimed BP, might have been a gambit (whether the claim is real or not) to avoid being the target of my vig.

[Leonshade]

Ok first of all, that associative seems a bit obvious for scumbuddies to be doing. Second of all, of course kraska wasn't shot. But I agree that her case on cakez is weak

Hmm, I wonder if it is too obvious? Maybe shaddowez was trying to create an association in case he gets lynched, gotta look at the game state in the context of that post.

[Leonshade]

He was being scumread by a couple people, but I don't think shaddowez expected to be the lynch of the day/die that day. Certainly not too obvious to make me doubt my scumread.

[Leonshade]

My gut scumread on farside is gone. Her posting has looked much townier after she dropped the aggression, and even the far-fetched theory about me shooting scum seems to be from a place of genuinely town genuinely trying to figure out the game, rather than scum pushing for my lynch.

If all my townreads are correct, scum has to be somewhere in kraska, Nacho, Peregrine and Cakez. kraska's posting the last couple of pages has been better, and I like the fact that she's come around and started believing my claim, but it's not enough to make me change my read, yet.

No strong thoughts on Nacho or Peregrine. With Nacho's reputation I'd expect to have stronger thoughts on his alignment, so he might be scum trying to not rock the boat like shaddowez. I caught Peregrine skimming the thread during his catch-up (proven by him missing Tammy's claim), but while scum are more likely to avoid reading everything, laziness isn't a scumtell in and of itself.

I have no reason to scumread Cakez, but I don't have a strong TR on him. I don't want him today in any case.

[Leonshade]

I need to reread Nacho, Peregrine and kraska, as well as look for associations with shaddowez. I want one of the three of them today.

[Leonshade]

There could be another 3P out there, possible even another lyncher, except an anti-town one. But I'm not really interested in hunting for them, Xykon is 99% likely in the factional scum team.

[Leonshade]

Yeah no what?

[Leonshade]

Why are you so certain there isn't another 3P?

[Leonshade]

That's a weak reason to outright dismiss the possibility.

[Leonshade]

I mean, I know my claim is right and everyone's been crying about how unrealistically OP it is, so there has to be something to balance it out. A second lyncher, except on town flavor, could be that.

[Leonshade]

Your pet theory isn't a fact. No one has counterclaimed my Roy Greenhilt flavor.

[Leonshade]

I see I won't be convincing you.

If I claimed to find Xykon with my flavorcop, would you lynch that person? Or would you lynch me first?

[Leonshade]

I don't really have a choice.

[Leonshade]

That's a weak reason to outright dismiss the possibility.

This is basically a confession he's lying about his wincon

I was talking about the possibility of another 3P, not about my wincon.

Tammy and Infinity remain as strong townreads.

Nacho being on both the shaddow counterwagons reminds me of 609, where he agreed with Wisdom on the reads but arbitrarily voted me instead of joining the shaddow wagon. I also love 839, where he tests the waters for lynching shaddow that day after it was obvious that Grey and shaddow were going to die, while still waffling enough on the read that he could back off if need be. And then he never voted shaddow. Reads like Nacho was setting up a bus.

VOTE: Nacho

[Leonshade]

That's L-1.

[Leonshade]

There's a lot of meta involved in the Nacho-Wisdom interactions. I have to echo Inf's thoughts, I'm starting to feel a town vibe from Nacho, but he's putting in work at a time he needs to, and he has the reputation of a player strong enough to pull it off.

[Leonshade]

Recovering from a flu, catching up over the weekend.

[Leonshade]

Only skimmed through the last few pages, but Wisdom's change of heart seems genuine to me, and I don't like farside's reaction to his pressure. I will evaluate my reads when I have more time.

[Leonshade]

Still haven't caught up, will do during the week instead.

[Leonshade]

I've skimmed through everything I missed, if there's something you think I should take a closer look at, please point me to it.

I like the lynch farside -> flavorcop Nacho plan. Figuring Nacho out purely on his play looks like it would be difficult, least of all to someone like me with no meta on him. His latest posts gave me town vibes but he started towning up at an opportune time, the cop should give us some idea of what's going on.

I've got a lot of townreads and farside isn't one of them, and I don't like her reaction to pressure. Her playstyle change to a more appeasing style after getting called out for early aggressiveness also seems convenient. I'm also sheeping Wisdom here, his thoughts are pretty clear to me now that he decided to expand on his reads and I have no problem with him taking the town leader role.

VOTE: farside

[Leonshade]

Because I believe he's scumhunting and doing a better job of it than I am?

Why would this game be clear to me? I might be mistaken in my townreads.

[Leonshade]

And who knows about the PerV slot.

[Leonshade]

This game should be crystal clear to your town self.

Ah, now I realize what you mean, it's been a long day and I'm a bit slow.

But even so, what incentive do I have to not sheep Wisdom? I'm almost certain he's not factional scum, and I believe his Belkar claim thanks to my own fakeclaim being the same role name being the same.

[Leonshade]

This game should be crystal clear to your town self.

Actually we might not be on the same page, do you think that if Magna mod-confirmed my claim to you, Wisdom would be factional scum?

[Leonshade]

That doesn't answer my question.

[Leonshade]

but it does

Yes, it would mean wisdom is factional scum with near certainty.

Nevermind, then.

[Leonshade]

Why is wisdom town to you? What do you think about thing about the scumteam being eliminated by n1?

The Magna quote everyone keeps bringing up, it's about the entire game ending N1.

[Leonshade]

I will not comment on this topic further.

[Leonshade]

Maybe a lyncher on town constitutes a threat to town; then everything makes sense.

That would make a lot of sense, wouldn't it?

[Leonshade]

But enough softing.

[Leonshade]

btw a thought I had that I dont remember if I posted is that Cakez was okay to have shaddow vigged because they have a scum doc and they would save him

but obv they didnt expect strongman

This is something to keep in mind when reading the whole Grey/shaddow lynch/kill debate. If scum have some sort of kill protection, they would've wanted Grey lynched and shaddow vigged.

[Leonshade]

Leon why are you trying to help town?

Because I want to lynch scum.

btw a thought I had that I dont remember if I posted is that Cakez was okay to have shaddow vigged because they have a scum doc and they would save him

but obv they didnt expect strongman

This is something to keep in mind when reading the whole Grey/shaddow lynch/kill debate. If scum have some sort of kill protection, they would've wanted Grey lynched and shaddow vigged.

you softclaimed lyncher on town
why not fullclaim?

If I was lyncher on town, why would I soft it? That's a rhetorical question, I wouldn't.

What I wouldn't give for a neighborizer right about now.

If my role got mod-confirmed in the thread, I'd be playing like a regular town player. But as it stands, I'm just hoping that we lynch Xykon today so I can GTFO.

[Leonshade]

What I wouldn't give for a neighborizer right about now.

Who would you neighborize?

When I made that post, I was thinking a strong townread (Tammy or Infinity) so that I could explain everything to them, but upon further thought, hiding something from town is exactly why I'm doing this weird softing.

So instead I'd neighborize you (or one of the above townreads since my TR on you isn't quite as strong) and simply point you to a certain post in your ISO, let you make your own conclusions.

I've got the number of that post in my notes, I'll post it in the topic post-hammer.

[Leonshade]

Wait, what?

There's two town BPs?

[Leonshade]

No, I meant Tammy and me.

[Leonshade]

And yes, I believe the claim and think both Tammy and kraska are town.

[Leonshade]

My full thought process:
"There's three BP?"
"Wait kraska probably fakeclaimed there's two" -> Post reaction anyway.

I should go to sleep.

[Leonshade]

Leon, what makes you think wisdom isn't xykon?

I believe his Belkar claim thanks to my own fakeclaim being the same role name

Quote cleaned up a bit.

[Leonshade]

I think we're on the same page, now. And no, I have no special information on Wisdom's role.

[Leonshade]

Uh, you've gotten me paranoid about my read, Kagami. The idea I've had in my head would be a pretty clever way of handling things and would make sense in flavor, but maybe the setup isn't as complex as I imagined?

P-edit: The first one, Wisdom being Belkar would be a clever way of handling things, wouldn't it?

But clever doesn't mean it's right, it could just be a fakeclaim. Ugh.

[Leonshade]

Post 1001 is where I got the idea.

I wasn't softing my role, I was softing my read.

[Leonshade]

I know I would win, but I've been assuming that the game would still keep going in that scenario. Once again, I have no special information.

[Leonshade]

The only way that makes sense is if you have some compelling reason to believe there's another 3rd party role who is a threat to town (i.e. a serial killer).

That's the read I've been softing.

I have a flavor cop because of my lyncher status, and we've seen that flavor is probably linked to alignment with the flips we've seen thus far. With the Tsukiko flip, let's assume that there's also Xykon and Redcloak in the scum team.

But if there was another flavor cop, they would see that my name is Roy Greenhilt, and probably assume I'm town. Lyncher on scum is essentially town, but my lyncher wincon is still negative utility.

So if you wanted to introduce an SK, or maybe a lyncher on town, into the setup, a role I wouldn't have a reason to care about as killing them isn't part of my wincon, who would make flavor sense in that role while still having plausible town flavor?

That, plus a few other things I'm forgetting about right now, formed my read.

[Leonshade]

I'd prefer farside over Cakez.

[Leonshade]

I have a stronger read on farside than Cakez, Cakez is mostly PoE.

[Leonshade]

At no point have I claimed scum.

[Leonshade]

If wisdom

really

wanted to kill a specific flavor, I think he'd have demanded a claim first, which would be standard protocol anyway.

I also don't think it makes sense for a lyncher-on-town to constitute a threat to town, since that could put us in the situation where there are no groupscum and we would have to find this lyncher or just lynch his target and win together. That would be pretty silly.

Hmmmmmm. Those are some very good points.

[Leonshade]

Prodge, content tomorrow.

[Leonshade]

Phone prodge on computer later.

[Leonshade]

Leon, can you do something crazy for me?

Could you copy and paste Bulb's 730 and post it yourself (not in quotes, make it exactly like bulb's post looked)?

What would be the point of this busywork?

Nacho's catch-up/posting is good, I'm with him on a lot of his points and reads and his mindset is clear, plus he's asking good questions. I don't think I want him today.

If wisdom

really

wanted to kill a specific flavor, I think he'd have demanded a claim first, which would be standard protocol anyway.

I also don't think it makes sense for a lyncher-on-town to constitute a threat to town, since that could put us in the situation where there are no groupscum and we would have to find this lyncher or just lynch his target and win together. That would be pretty silly.

Oh.
Leon, you thought that Wisdom was a lyncher on town?

Correct, and the only reason I'm open about that fact right now is that I no longer think so. Originally I thought Wisdom was an SK or other type of 3P, and I figured that it'd be good to stay on his good side so the townies can be whittled down quicker, making finding Xykon easier. And when I thought he was lyncher on town, I figured that him achieving his win condition and leaving the game would pretty much confirm my own role as true. Plus my BP specifies that it's only for nightkills, so the daykill was scary.

Now I think he's probably town, but also possibly scum, so I won't be quiet on this topic anymore.

[Leonshade]

@farside

To my mind it is a fact that:

MoI did not allow for a reasonable chance that the game ends N1, which is highly possible if we take the current situation at face value.
Wisdom did indeed "Stab" bulbazak, and MoI substantially played along with the flavor of the kill if wisdom had any choice.
Wisdom did in fact suffer a penalty for making the kill.
(obviously) Bulb and Wraith/GI were Town, shadow was scum.

It is Highly Probable that:

There is no suitable flavor on the scumteam for the stabbing, so for wisdom to be scum, MoI deliberately designed the role to deceive the Town and went to the trouble of pushing that through bulb's death scene.

Leon killed shadow.
Tammy is BP/Vig, with limitations known to kraska.
Tammy was shot and thus Tammy and Kraska are town.
--- the alternative is that no shot was made, either to make Kraska+Tammy appear to be town and/or because scum had no NK on N1

I think it was Princess Bride Mafia's mafia PT where Magna complained about Kuroi's lack of effort in his fakeclaims. I think if Belkar was a mod-given fakeclaim, Magna would play along with it 100%.

Though the other mod scenes have been related to flavor thus far, between the lynch and shaddow's death scene (my strongman has the flavor "GREAT CLEAVE" and shaddow was cut in half).

[Leonshade]

Sorry I got side tracked.
A few things that I have that point to Wisdom scum.
1) the kill on bulba over his strong scum read.
2) only one death night 1 and that was on scum which even though this is more hypothetically then anything, lack of second death could be because Wisdom scum used his kill day 1 for the scum team.
3) during the tunnel on nacho at no point did Wisdom read as though he was satisfied with nachos response and sudden switch reads fake.
4) weak meta and lack of really trying to figure players out.
That last one is biggest one since with walking dead he did more interaction and understanding and this game is just attacking weak points.
5) bulba he was town and he attack Wisdom and found him scum. You can ignore everything else but a dead townies is something to consider when looking for truth in players.
He said Wisdom was known for bussing and saw issues with wisdom. Before bulba could expand and be more involved he was killed.
I know this is part of repeating point 1 but after replacing into a game called first mafia I know bulba can read deeper then others when he's town.

2: While it was eerie how GreyICE presented the theory of Wisdom trading in the nightkill for a daykill and then there was no scum NK, I think scum trying to shoot BP Tammy is the more likely answer.
3: Sudden switch reads genuine to me, lord knows I've done 180 flips on my reads before.
5: Town alignment doesn't mean correct reads.

[Leonshade]

I'm hoping that PV can get in thread and do things soon because if he's not scum it's probably Kagami. I don't think that her recent contributions are anywhere close to showing the depth and excitement she shows as town; a majority of her comments this day have been dancing around circles with the Leon/MoI thing and the sum of her reads on me and Farside so far are "I want to hear from Nacho." and "My earlier reasons for townreading Farside was silly.". I think that it's odd that shes not factoring Wisdom's play into the read on him in any noticeable way whatsoever and I think that she's leaning on the Magna quote a lot longer that's logical. I don't like that her reason for townreading PV is the Shadow read switch thing; that's fine as a piece of a read, but I don't understand why she's holding onto it as strongly as she is.

I don't agree with this read, other than maybe the part about leaning on the Magna quote. The downplaying of Kagami's reads in this post seems like misrepping.

[Leonshade]

I don't get why people stopped townreading farside

scumreading* farside

Neither do I, but with less than 24 hours that won't be relevant today.

Last couple pages to read and I'll decide on Nacho/Cakez.

[Leonshade]

No, that's what he thought wisdom was for some odd reason

Pedit: @cakez

No I mean like the "I don't want to discuss this anymore" stuff
Like shying away from the theory that he could be a lyncher on town

Inf's post is correct, shying away from it was because I was sheeping Wisdom for anti-town reasons (either he catches scum, or he's 3P lyncher, achieves his win con and proves my role, or he's SK and I don't care either way). I was then going to push hard for the idea if/when people wanted to lynch me to get rid of me before LYLO.

But the read was pretty silly in hindsight, ideas seem a lot different in your head than when you bounce them off others.

[Leonshade]

Hmm, I don't really feel strongly about Cakez being scum, whereas Nacho has me paranoid. And Tammy is obvtown with way more meta with Nacho than I, so if she feels strongly about Nacho's behavior being indicative of scum, I'm willing to trust her on that.

VOTE: Nacho

[Leonshade]

Why the unvote?

I don't want a hammer just yet.

The Current deadline is December 5th at 10am EST in (expired on 2016-12-05 10:00:00)

You, uh, might wanna hustle if you want Nacho lynched.

I'll be here at deadline to hammer Cakez if need be.

[Leonshade]

A VT claim shouldn't make you doubt your scumread.

[Leonshade]

I explained my preference in an earlier post, but there's no time today.

VOTE: SirCakez

[Leonshade]

I flavorcopped PantherPunt. He's not Xykon.

Is it just Nacho, then? We have a good track record, but it feels odd that Cakez would bus his buddy all D2 after his other buddy died.

[Leonshade]

With Cakez being Tarquin Xykon might not even be in the game

I am Informed that he is.

I flavorcopped PantherPunt. He's not Xykon.

Is it just Nacho, then? We have a good track record, but it feels odd that Cakez would bus his buddy all D2 after his other buddy died.

Do you get full flavor or do you get Xykon/not-Xykon?

I know his role name (AKA mine is Roy Greenhilt, Cakez was Tarquin etc.). I won't reveal it unless Panther tells me to.

[Leonshade]

Fine. He's Thog.

[Leonshade]

Xykon remains so I doubt he's scum. Either 3P or town-aligned. Thog worked with Elan at one point so he could just be town-aligned here.

[Leonshade]

oh...found him
wisdom's guy was also a bad guy right?

Belkar is evil but one of the protagonists.

[Leonshade]

Rule E3 is in doctor who too.

How is your BP worded, leon?

Passive 1-shot, immune to the first normal NK on me.

[Leonshade]

okay wtf.................................
i just skimmed the characters wiki and im beginning to have stupid ideas

wisdom u said u can guess who tammy and i are...so what do u think our characters be?

My guess has been Monster in the Darkness for Tammy and O-Chul for you.

The fact that you know Tammy's role but not vice-versa did get me a bit paranoid during the night, but I think you're town here.

[Leonshade]

okay so i just read about my character and apparently im xykon's secret weapon LOL
idk what to think really

Oh, it's vice versa.

[Leonshade]

Ok I think it's best to just claim this now. I'm a 2-shot neapolitan. N1 I investigated nacho and got nothing, which makes sense because cakez could've roleblocked me. The thing is I also investigated nacho N2 and also got no result, which is weird. It's very unlikely for scum to have 2 roleblockers, and it's possible a town role interfered somehow but not sure what that would be, or nacho is just ascetic and scum.

What's your flavor?

And that is very interesting.

[Leonshade]

Rule E3 is in doctor who too.

How is your BP worded, leon?

Passive 1-shot, immune to the first normal NK on me.

Then prob not nightless, would only protect against tammy. Did you get any messages N1?

Nope.

[Leonshade]

kagami and leon...u too
if u were to guess our characters, what 2 characters make most sense given what you know about our claims so far

the bard and thief? Can;t remmeber the names. Haley and _________

Bulbazak was Haley.

[Leonshade]

Monster in the Darkness would be considered bad-guy flavor right?

If so then flavor can't imply alignment.

Not really, while Monster in the Darkness is with Team Evil, he's always been benign and at one point befriended and helped paladin O-Chul, whom I assume Tammy is.

[Leonshade]

Hey so if anyone roleblocked or in any other way knows how they might have stopped Inf's vanilla cop, claim now. Otherwise Nacho is confirmed scum.

[Leonshade]

Showerthought: Cakez would've tried to RB me N1 to stop the shot on shaddowez, so he couldn't have blocked Inf. And no way did a townie RB Inf two nights in a row.

VOTE: Nacho

[Leonshade]

Huh.

UNVOTE:

[Leonshade]

No, it wouldn't be a story vendor if you didn't get a message. They prob jailkept shadow to protect him.

Nacho must be ascetic.

p-edit: o.O

Oh yeah, he was JK, not RB.

[Leonshade]

Assumption:

Tammy was shot N1.
Nacho was shot N2.

[Leonshade]

Tammy was a universal townread

But everyone knew she was a BP, she couldn't have been the shot N2.

[Leonshade]

I can't imagine Infinity would've made that claim as scum, knowing that he was stopped by town.

[Leonshade]

I think it's more likely that kraska's theory is right and scum is just panther

Then what is Xykon?

[Leonshade]

Guess today is massclaim after all.

Kagami, Panther, claim.

[Leonshade]

VOTE: Kagami

[Leonshade]

VOTE: Kagami

PoE.

i could see durkon being a fakeclaim for redcloak, if peregrine is scum

Four scum + two town vigs = potential for the game to end D2.

[Leonshade]

Four scum?

Two dead scum, neither is Redcloak or Xykon.

It doesn't make sense that scum would shoot Nacho, but then why wasn't there an NK?

[Leonshade]

PEdit: leon unless you're an SK or something you can't be arguing about how early the game ends unless you think wisdom is scum. Lyncher on scum is not a threat to town.

I don't know what this is in reference to???

[Leonshade]

PEdit: leon unless you're an SK or something you can't be arguing about how early the game ends unless you think wisdom is scum. Lyncher on scum is not a threat to town.

I don't know what this is in reference to???

Oh, now I see.

Four scum + me + Wisdom + 7 others = 13
Wisdom kills Bulba, town mislynch, I shoot town, scum NK = 4 scum, 5 town, D2 is LYLO.

[Leonshade]

If Peregrine is scum, what is the point of the double rolestop on Nacho?

[Leonshade]

like someone said Cakez most likely jailkept shaddow to protect him from Leon, thus shaddow got the story

Then Leon punched through the JK? Did I miss the strongman part?

You did, my vig was strongman.

[Leonshade]

If Peregrine is scum, what is the point of the double rolestop on Nacho?

good point
he would be rolestopping a buddy
unless you're right about four scum and nacho is his buddy

Four scum could lead to LYLO D2.

Unless this is four scum with no NK?

[Leonshade]

If Peregrine is scum, what is the point of the double rolestop on Nacho?

good point
he would be rolestopping a buddy
unless you're right about four scum and nacho is his buddy

Four scum could lead to LYLO D2.

Unless this is four scum with no NK?

Then why bother with all the BPs? You claimed and some Tammy/Kraska combo too.

I think it's 3 until I have reason to think otherwise.

Very true. All this role madness is messing with my brain.

UNVOTE:

[Leonshade]

Extremely weird role-wise that O-Chul is the conditional BP-vig while Monster is an enabler. It would make infinitely more sense for the monster to be unhurtable and to go crazy if O-Chul gets hurt or some such.

O-Chul is ridiculously unkillable, the BP makes sense (though I was also assuming the monster was the BP at first). Did kraska say what enables Tammy's vig?

@kraska: What enables Tammy's vig?

[Leonshade]

I agree that scum-flavor is not clear-cut. Design choice to foil Leon's flavor cop?

I assume it's that, and avoiding a massclaim breaking the game.

[Leonshade]

Pere joined the Cakez wagon at a point when either Nacho or Cakez could've gotten lynched, unless all three are scum I don't think Pere is. Plus the whole double rolestop.

Inf is town, Tammy is clear through kraska, kraska is a strong townread, Wisdom is probably town, Panther is not Xykon. That only leaves Nacho and Kagami.

[Leonshade]

I'm surprised that Leon opted to investigate Panther over me, especially considering the push on me yesterday and the paranoia expressed over me and I think that lends a lot more to the "lyncher on town" theory than anything else although I've officially ran out of combinations for it to work with.

Cakez flipping scum made me second-guess myself, he spent all D2 on you so it made me doubt that it was a bus. Besides, you'd already claimed, so I decided to be proactive in the case that you're town. If I flavorcopped you and the result was Vaarsuvius, we would've had no new info, besides confirmation of your claim.

[Leonshade]

My guess has been Monster in the Darkness for Tammy and O-Chul for you.

here, before kraska claimed it

If he is lyncher on one of those flavors it makes sense

I'm not, it was just the guess that made the most sense.

[Leonshade]

I'm not, it was just the guess that made the most sense.

how did that make the most sense? First of all you had to assume monster was town-aligned which while is plausible there's no way it's the first thing that comes to mind for a town neighbor

At first I had no idea who they were, but when you said you thought you knew who they were, it got me thinking about who they could possibly be. O-Chul and Monster were the first that came to mind, and I figured you were thinking the same thing.

[Leonshade]

Panther is the only one with a claimed role, maybe his claim will shed some light on this.

Think scum!Nacho, afraid that I'll flavorcop him and disprove his claim, would've tried to shoot me, hoping that my BP was a bluff?

[Leonshade]

Let's assume 1 scum is left, and that leon is being truthful:

It's pretty well confirmed that Peregrin rolestopped nacho twice, and that infinity targeted nacho with something twice.
Xykon exists and is likely the final scum.
Unless leon is scum, I would be shocked if cakez hadn't jailkept shaddow, which means that the third scumplayer attempted to kill if an attempt was made.

Due to rule E3, neither infinity nor peregrin are scum unless no kill attempt was made, which seems unlikely to me.

Tammy is flavor confirmed, and a highly probably N1 kill target.
Panther is confirmed thog and thus town.
Kraska would not have attempted to kill tammy N1, though maaaaaaybe nacho if nacho is town.

Only possible scummos are myself, nacho, wisdom, and maybe kraska.

Ooh, that's a good catch. Everyone who can prove an N1 action is clear.

[Leonshade]

Seems like lynching leon is strictly better than lynching panther.

Both are bad plays.

[Leonshade]

Would be kinda funny is Roy was told xykon was definitely somewhere and he goes there searching when he's not in the game at all though.

Or xykon is in the game and is a lyncher on Roy while Roy is a lyncher on xykon?

First option would make this a bastard game, which this is not.

Second option is not out of the realm of possibility, but Xykon being lyncher on Roy makes little sense.

[Leonshade]

I buy the panther argument, but that makes leon scum of some sort.

which makes more sense than him being pro-town given all the power we have

plus what I said about him magically guessing kraska/tammy's flavor

I like the comic, and the Monster and his relationship was the first thing that came to mind with the BP-enabled vig paradigm. And only after you said that you knew who they were, which made me think that the answer is more obvious than I thought.

[Leonshade]

Who is this town flavor that I'm supposed to be lyncher on? None of the remaining options make sense. Also, I win when my target dies, as proven by my flavor cop and one-shot vig, which makes no sense if I was lyncher on town. If I could win off a scum NK, I could win through no merit of my own.

[Leonshade]

If I was lyncher on kraska or Tammy, why did I flavorcop Panther? I could've flavorcopped one and figured out my lynch target.

[Leonshade]

why would it make no sense if you were lyncher on town?

It makes sense for lyncher on scum to win with town, as scum can only be killed by town.

An anti-town role that wins because scum NK'd the right townie N1? That would be a horrible role, and require me to do nothing.

[Leonshade]

If I could win off a scum NK, I could win through no merit of my own.

oh, this?

maybe you're lyncher on Tammy then, who can't be nightkilled.

I refer you to post 2355.

[Leonshade]

If I could win off a scum NK, I could win through no merit of my own.

oh, this?

maybe you're lyncher on Tammy then, who can't be nightkilled.

Fine, you found the one person I could be the lyncher on, if I was lyncher on town. But Tammy is also a role that has their flavor confirmed to another role. If I had tried to get Tammy lynched at an earlier point, Tammy and kraska could've just claimed and made my wincon nearly impossible.

Roy Greenhilt, lyncher on Xykon makes sense. Who makes sense to be lyncher on O-Chul? Or pretty much any of the remaining flavors, for that matter? Your pet theory was at least sensible when it was possible for Elan to be in this game, but that's gone now.

[Leonshade]

Who makes sense to be lyncher on O-Chul?

Xykon maybe?

...

[Leonshade]

Fine, let's test that theory.

VOTE: Panther

[Leonshade]

VOTE: Nacho

[Leonshade]

VOTE: Wisdom

^ that's fine too.

Kagami, why not Nacho?

[Leonshade]

If I flavorcopped you and the result was Vaarsuvius, we would've had no new info, besides confirmation of your claim.

And you didn't think that confirming me as town would have been useful?

I wanted to catch/clear the farside slot since I was still scumreading that slot, and I started second-guessing my read on you after Cakez flipped scum.

[Leonshade]

There's no explanation for the lack of an NK N2 if Wisdom is scum, or really anyone other than Nacho or Infinity. And Infinity isn't scum, so Nacho is.

Panther not reading the thread was a plausible third explanation, but that's gone now.

[Leonshade]

Actually Infinity might make the least sense, why try to shoot Nacho, have it fail then claim to have targeted him? And why would anyone try to shoot Nacho in the first place?

[Leonshade]

Congratulations on slaying Xykon, I'm looking on with pride from the Lawful Good afterlife.

Now if I could find a way to the Chaotic Evil afterlife to fulfill my oath...

[Leonshade]

I claimed my real role to make my claim less suspicious. I was already under pressure, so I figured it was better to claim my real role to explain the scummy behavior than go "I'm town with this powerful role". In hindsight I probably should've claimed town and everything about my role except the strongman at the very start, since the strongman is so powerful. The only reason I didn't was that I figured scum could roleblock my flavor cop.

[Leonshade]

Most frustrating things to read:

#3: Your role is too powerful to be town.
#2: You wouldn't have a fakeclaim with that role.
#1: You can't have possibly figured out Tammy & kraska's flavor by yourself.

[Leonshade]

Rude.