Mini Normal 1862 - Town win.

Ircher
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Post Post #1025  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:26 pm

Spoiler: Reads - Day 1 #1
Confirmed Town (From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
1. Ircher  (100%) - Role PM
2. Grey (99%) - Picking up at with my previous read in mind. The word of advice in reads as town stepping back and reconsidering before continuing a push. was a decent observation of Alisae's behavior around voting and joining wagons. Don't like the instant Gin scumread in very much -- too accusatory versus trying to come to the same conclusion. comes across as a bit too cautious. (Primarily cuz of the "Eh," start) . Grey doesn't make very concessions but he did in which reads townish considering his previous remark in . (Even though I dont know scum!Grey, I'm inclined to believe he'd not give in quite so easily. Possibly a bad assumption on my part). was a good catch even if the slip (still a slip regardless if Naomi is town or scum) is somewhat null. Refusal to reconsider makes seem scum motivated, though this seems to be a thing for Grey. Somewhat hard to believe Grey's comment that he reread my ISO in , but I do see that as genuine read on me at the time. is a weird assumption, but given Grey's claim, it makes some sense to assume. Not sure what to make of -- my vote wasn't extremely serious and more a reaction test. (But, it was late, and I had the misfortune of no more wifi until this afternoon. Cop claim in which I totally buy. The read on Gin in feels new and unsupported, but a lot went on where he focused elsewhere. is bad setup spec imo. Not necessarily alignment-indicative. Definitely town imo at this point.

Likely Town (85%-97% Confidence)
3. Human Sequencer (92%) - Beginning after . Not sure what to make of - kinda feels Human hasn't really read the thread. Read maybe a few posts here and there, but not the majority. Concur fully w/ the town case for All Alone in . Though looks like a really dumb question, it's actually a decent question cuz Flubber is giving info versus actual analysis and reads. Why do you doubt Gamma's claim (see )? I mean, its alignment is questionable, but the claim fits his earlier behavior. is flawed setup spec (most roles dont know if their action fails). This guy's still town by a long shot.
4. All Alone (88%) - Starting after . disapproves All Alone's point, but it's excusable considering my earlier read. feels a bit too jumpy.... Maybe it's hindsight? The interaction with Alisae feels meh and not really alignment indicative on Alone's side. The case on Asphodel in is well backed and sensible. Biggest complaint really is the small number of posts, but when Alone posts, they are quality posts that read as genuine posts that make sense. Still thinking town here, but I think I might end up paranoid with this slot in the long run.

Leaning Town (60%-84% Confidence)
5. Alisae (80%) - Starting after . feels too buddy-buddy w/ TwoFace than necessary. Caring too much about self-image in . does not feel authentic -- Pretty sure I haven't seen Asphodel really mentioned a bunch in this ISO. also pings my radar for being a very dumb question that anyone reading the thread critically would know the answer to. (No Offense) is an ok question. The OMGUS in is bad, but is it scum-motivated? is just buzzwords and nothing else -- Gin is not guilty of IoA (well, by your flawed definition, perhaps, but giving info isn't a bad thing, just when its info without any attempt to analyze or very little that its a problem). reads more as confirmation bias than a scum agenda tbh. probably confirms my suspicion -- Alisae considers stepping back but cant quite manage to focus elsewhere. is prob. a good indicator for town. My assumption is scum!Alisae would be more jumpy at such a comment. is again OMGUS in disguise; this is starting to become a personality tell. I kinda feel is a weak response to Naomi's way out, but meh, I'd prob. do something similar given the chance. feels important, but it prob. be better if I didn't elaborate here. Nvm -- see . is just bad logic as that scumtell works just as much as the information scumtell. is confusing, but feels more authentic than the previous readslist. The person referenced in is unfortunately wrong as universal scumtells just never work. (One-Size-NEVER-Fits-ALL) feels legitimate to ask. Overall, this reads as self-conscious town.
6. Naomi-Tan (+65%) - Guess I'm starting after here. Serious Q -- Are you being facetious in ? What was your read on Grey and me after making ? is a good readslist imo. reads really town to me -- scum care, town don't. Starting to see what Naomi said for her introduction (and that's a good thing). was a slip regardless of alignment, but that doesn't necessary mean Naomi is scum. Town "slip" all the time cuz they're less cautious. gives an associative tell if either flips scum. Why did you feel the need to requite me in ? (Not that it was necessarily a bad thing, I just wanna know why). Yeah, I kinda glazed through a lot of posts cuz they were hard to read, but I think the assessment during her intro is very accurate, so she's probs town.

Null (0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
7. Rainbowdash (+20%) - is null (but I somewhat disagree w/ the perspective). makes logical sense. Setup spec in (null). feels off, but I think I'm biased. More setup spec throughout. Really hard to get a read here.

Neutral (31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
8. TwoFace (+42%) - Last one, this time, we're starting after . To be honest, reads as confirmation bias. is a weird and clearly scum-motivated remark. Townies don't ignore their scumreads; they work with them. Scum ignore their "scumreads" so as to discredit them and plead innocent when a mislynch occurs. Also, TwoFace never explained why he couldn't trust Human. (Conflicting Views does not mean either of your views are wrong). The follow up in reads anti-town behavior versus scum motivation though. as town trying to come to a common understanding w/ his target. reads as genuine frustration. is a scummy misrep as reads can change. Grey made it pretty clear (despite not explicitly) that he had reevaluated. reads as arrogant town who thinks they've caught scum. reads as fake considering the answer is in the quote. is tbh a sign towards town. Looking through, reads mostly as confirmation biased town, but it's hard to tell at first glance cuz there's a lot of other scummy stuff that TwoFace has done in addition.
9. Krylea (+40%) - is a good first impression. is meh -- think he should've read but not really a thing I see scum doing versus lazyish town. reads as a genuine response to Grey's Q. is blatant misrep, though I feel this is misguided/biased town versus scum. Eh, was unexpected and felt like it came from scum. Peer pressure? Yeah, I'm realky mixed here, good intro but feels like Kry is sheeping more than anything tbh. Easily manipulated seems the best way to put it.
10. TheRealGin-N-Tonic (-45%) - So, picking up after . would be fine except I don't see how Gin can be null on Alisae at the time he posted that. also reads strange to me. (Mainly the 3rd paragraph's accusatory tone). reads as naivety and inexperienced player tell. My response to is that daytalk is pretty common and only doesn't exist in the newbie queue due to the greater skill gap in every game and balance reasons. Pretty sure was a L-1 vote. seems like a pointless question to ask. It also reads as shade-throwing and fluff. In response to : And? Fence-sitting just like sheeping is not a scumtell. Don't try to use it as such. -- Logical fallancies abound! Seriously, there are more than 2 possibilities here. Not everything is black and white. is a VERY suspicious 180 you did. There's 3x as many posts to consider this time. This slot does not read town, but it doesn't read as scummy as some of othe other slots.

Leaning Scum (60%-75% Confidence)
11. Flubbernugget (-65%) - makes me roll my eyes. What do you mean "starting to look more like scum hunting than it did before" in ? Did you scumread the interaction earlier? (I'm assuming you're NOT referring to the earlier semantics thing). What's your point in ? is a horrible demand and prob. a logical fallancy. is also a fluff post. feels too accusatory. It also feels that Flubber looked at the post for like 500 milliseconds then decided to jump on it. Too much fluff imo and not enough analysis. Some things are stated matter-of-fact but they seem to be just that -- info. Not feeling good about this slot.
12. Asphodel (-70%) - Continuing after where I left off last time. The "test" from and the subsequent analysis in feels... not right. I think Asphodel was too set on trying to prove me as having a fake read (a bit stretched read? definitely! fake? not really) but in the end, the end resukt wasn't what Asphodel expected. What I don't know is Asphodel'send read on me after this -- feels like it could've gone both ways and is ambiguous. reads super faked and on purposely done to get towncred. Some of the later posts like look a good deal better. is pretty suspicious looking like he just cant bring himself to make a case on someone he knows is town (cuz he's scum).

Likely Scum (76%-100% Confidence)
13. Gamma (-80%) - Resuming after with this. Gonna evaluate the truthfulness of , cuz a lot of posts are null / about his (future) claim. is a non-sensical Q --> blank quotes generally express agreement. is a bit too far. Not sure where came -- a bit defensive much? is pure WIFOM. is also overly defensive when it's been like 100+ posts since Sequencer asked you stuff and you never responded. (More than enough time). feels fake as well -- elaborate. In response to -- you never stated how it felt more honest. is clear shade-throwing without just cause. is more a demand rather than cooperative request. feels hypocritical -- if that's your philosophy, explain your Grey and TwoFace reads in-depth. is some kind of logical fallancy and totally uncooperative. (You assume Grey holds himself a low standard of play. Really, cant express what I'm thinking in words right now). is an authentic claim imo. reads like a chainsaw or something except Alisae is town imo. is truthfully a weird scum move. is once more doubt-casting just-to-doubtcast cuz I'm sire Gamma w/ over 5k posts understands what a breadcrumb is. Reads as scum considering Gamma!/ experience and the amount of shade-casting being conducted.


Fyi, this was 3x as much work as the previous. Be patient.
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Post Post #1026  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:26 pm

Eh, that should say #2
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Post Post #1027  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:27 pm

In post 1024, krylea wrote:Oh LyLo/MyLo is different obviously.

People talk all the time about quickhammers/derphammers, but they really don't seem that common. The only times I've seen them in all the games I've read through on this site have been scum faking an accidental hammer. Like, unless you know there's a VI in the game, I would assume that noone is going to be THAT stupid.

Maybe its just because I'm relatively new though, I guess maybe they could happen more often than I realize.

Some players do lolhammer. It's more common than you think.
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Post Post #1028  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:28 pm

VOTE: Gamma
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Post Post #1029  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:29 pm

Literally last game I had a townie do it by accident, hence why I believe in it so strongly.
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Post Post #1030  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:30 pm

Yo jackass, address my damn question
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Post Post #1031  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:31 pm

Read the freaking post.
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Post Post #1032  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:32 pm

No I want a full assessment of my play, not from X post.
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Post Post #1033  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:39 pm

That read list is full of so many inconsistencies dude...

Looking at "Grey" you drone on and on about how he's done scummy shit but he's confirmed town?

"Alisae" again does a bunch of scummy shit but she's high on your list?


Literally going through that list, I feel like if you reversed the colors it would make a lot more sense.
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Post Post #1034  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:41 pm

I mean, I respect that you put that much work into that reads list. That is good analysis and answers some of my complaints earlier about lack of meaningful content. But like...Gamma? Is not scum. And Grey should not be ANYWHERE close to as high up on that list as he is. Like, those are two facts that should be incredibly obvious just from reading the thread. And I still think you're scum.
Also, answer Gamma's fucking question.

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Post Post #1035  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:42 pm

In post 1033, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
Literally going through that list, I feel like if you reversed the colors it would make a lot more sense.


Yeah, see that was my first thought too.

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Post Post #1036  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:44 pm

I read: look at my early play again, see how I try to find town based on my role. In NO UNIVERSE does scum use their role to townhunt like I did.
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Post Post #1037  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:00 pm

In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.


Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do you know that?
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Post Post #1038  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:02 pm

In post 1011, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:Grey if his claim is proven wrong.


Image
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Post Post #1039  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:10 pm

In post 1037, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.


Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do you know that?


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Post Post #1040  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:16 pm

Yeah, this may have to take priority over the Ircher thing - loathe as I am to say it.

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Post Post #1041  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:17 pm

In post 1039, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:
In post 1037, -Grey- wrote:
In post 1004, Rainbowdash wrote:@Grey - Last chance to add anything else to your claim that you may have been missing.

Im still convinced grey is scum and he is caught for both game actions he hasn't realized yet and something else that im not going to say until he responds to this just incase he decided to leave out something critical in his claim because there is some stuff that doesn't add up.


Oh I've totally left something out of my claim, no doubt about that.

The question is, how do you know that?


I detect a storm brewing


No, not really. If my hunch is right, Rainbow might be my counterpart. It's the only way he should know about my limitation. There's no reason to think scum would.

I do wonder, however, why he would choose to discuss this today. His timing is utter shit.
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Post Post #1042  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:17 pm

In post 1040, krylea wrote:Yeah, this may have to take priority over the Ircher thing - loathe as I am to say it.


I would lynch you over Ircher ten times out of nine.
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Post Post #1043  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:20 pm

What's the reasoning behind that?
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Post Post #1044  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:22 pm

In post 1043, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:What's the reasoning behind that?


She's more likely to be scum, of course.
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Post Post #1045  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:27 pm

*GROAN*

Thanks for the abstract, now give me the facts
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Post Post #1046  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:30 pm

In post 779, Rainbowdash wrote:"Hey look at me, im a miller and this is a convenient breadcrumb"


Im a cheeky pony and I freaking love it.

Yeah im claiming miller. It why I specifically asked about the type of result that he would get since my role is a bit vague regarding it, but heavily implies that he would be getting guilty/not guilty instead of mafia as he suggested.

Now your immediate thought may be as to why I question a cop when my role implies it and there are a few things that I have been thinking as to why I am pretty sure he is lying about this that don't have to do with result wording. In a bit of a spoiler alert, I think there is a better chance that he is fakeclaiming town than a cop.

1) His immediate thought of "we lynch any guilty or 'no result' D2". This is first implies he would be alive which if he is a cop... why does he think this really, especially when he has continually pushed for a fact that there is "no RB" in the game. The assumption that there is no RB is a little interesting, as a RB is a usually a scum counter for a role. The presence of Gamma doesn't increase or decrease the chance for there to be a RB unless the ascetic is scum in which case it dramatically. Either way, what is the worst case for him as scum? Call a guilty on a player like me or another somewhat hard lynch and end up not pulling it off? Best case he got out of D1 lynch, easy D2 lynch and scum is way up.

2) The game he kept referring to he claimed cop in and completely left that out of his reason for crumbing. Its why I have this really bad gut feeling that he might be VT and is completely screwing with us and I am either a red herring role or there is a real cop who was smart and kept their mouth shut. If he is going to refer to a game he claimed cop in (even as not cop) how do you NOT link that into your claim? I had no idea what Gamma was going on about early, but figured it had to be something role related since I couldn't see any play reason to make that link.

3) Ascetic. As I already stated, that is a way to weaken a role far more often than not. What else is Gamma effecting? I don't think he can be a red herring since that would be a massive curveball by the mod. Throw in a very rare role (enabler) and then give it an ever more rare modifier (ascetic) and then make it useless? Doubt it. He has to be playing some part in this game, and scum having that modifier makes little sense as it doesn't really benefit them in any way, even if an ideal situation occurs (like cop targets ascetic) as its not a clear, just a "there might be a RB" and if Gamma claimed would likely get them lynched. So its probably a town modifier, and it pretty much would only work on something like a cop. Its why I kept trying to push just incase he was lying and was a more believable one shot or something.

Not as much on a direct correlation, but a PR claim D1 is a bit more likely from scum than from town. Town wont (shouldn't) fake claim as VT. Scum who are going to be lynched without a PR claim will claim a PR at a higher frequency than exist in the game. Its not big, but it more works counter to this. A VT claim is disproportionally likely to come from town D1 when it the first player ran up.

Anyways tl;dr

My role wording, him setting up ideal scum resolutions and assuming he will be around D2 to execute it, ignoring what seems like what would be an obvious cop breadcrumb from somepony who was planning it, ascetic not really balancing with a full cop.... I think he is scum.

Really I think there is a better chance he is a VT who saw this work once and now tries to do anti-town play than he is a real cop. Either way I needed to claim here because I basically wreck a scum claim, become basic conf-town due to it and am a role that isn't even a threat to scum. That's a win-win in my book since they have to take me out or hunt other roles.

Lets lynch him now please and thank you. That was not cop play. That was somepony trying to act like a cop.
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Post Post #1047  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:33 pm

RainbowDash, what's your opinion on the Ircher wagon?
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Post Post #1048  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:37 pm

In post 1047, Alisae wrote:RainbowDash, what's your opinion on the Ircher wagon?


Melted down and given away a lot of his town points, but if we are going away from Grey I like Aspho or HS instead.
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Post Post #1049  (ISO)  » Thu Dec 22, 2016 11:38 pm

@Rainbow: if you believe me about my claim Ircher should be scummy to you.
“Accept despair!”

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