Open 707 - JK9++ [Endgame]

[Mathdino]

/confirm

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Jaydragon

Can't wait for a wagon on them

[Mathdino]

This entire wagon is scum.

VOTE: Jaydragon

[Mathdino]

For the record, this is why town doesn't have and shouldn't pretend to have a survivor wincon. It's anti-town.

[Mathdino]

Idk about you
But being awesome enough to get shot by mafia N1 is my personal wincon

[Mathdino]

I actually got vigged after being cop cleared once. Sad days.

Fitz, sell me on Kopscum?

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Kop

sounds like a POLICY LYYYYNNNNCH

[Mathdino]

@Jay: What? You didn't even vote what are you talking about

It's a personal meme that I like policy lynches. Threatening to lynch someone if they don't participate works for me.

[Mathdino]

ok guys it's page 4 you can stop now

reads in a bit

[Mathdino]

A50: looks town

Creature: nullscum, posting style feels a bit forced

fitz: first serious vote, doesn't really try to take credit for ending RVS, seems town

Impede: i have no idea what he's talking about in regards to Una but probably town just towning around

Jay: seems to be actively playing to his own meta. i don't think his behavior is super alignment indicative in general, and he's kind of a fluffy fluffer. i'm good with lynching him as a player until he learns not to be scummy. but then again he's probably town doing that weird "forced meta" thing

Kop: POLICY LYNCH. idk him giving advice to jay seems really forced, the way he's doing it. like he's speaking as a player and not as a townie?

Red: vague townish vibes

Una: i can't read any of this shit but i hope he contributes soon

everyone else: get in here so i can scumread you pls

[Mathdino]

the point of this game is to do things in public that are readable

that's literally why i post reads lists; if i were confirmed town i wouldn't do that

when you put on an act all the time, that hurts our ability to read you and prevents you from truly becoming good town

[Mathdino]

you're acting really fucking weird in a way that doesn't imply you have anything resembling a plan

[Mathdino]

Can you elaborate on some of these, because this is striking me as forced reads. Your accusing me of looking forced, this is more forced shit rather than actual reads.

How does Almost50 look town, what does town look like? He's made one RVS vote, and one filler post. How does that make him look town?

Creature, if you believe he is nullscum, why aren't you voting him since he's virtually your only scum read?

Impede, how is he towning around?

Jay, so your happy to lynch someone just to learn them to stop acting scummy, rather than actually lynching someone who you scum read? Do you scum read Jay or not?

Myself, your talking about policy lynching someone on page 4, and no reason because Fitz has painted myself as a policy lynch because of previous games.

Overall, reading these reads, I don't think they are actually genuine reads right now, and is just trying to look active.

VOTE: Mathdino

ugh you're really making me work
i get this shit every D1

A50: Town off gut. His random vote seems pretty natural and not the kind of hostile thing scum would go for early on.

Creature: Because I'm already voting/scumreading you? I don't need to answer to you where my vote is . I also like wagons better than singular votes.

Impede: I answered this one pay attention

Jay: I don't believe at this point that anything Jay does is alignment indicative, because he purposefully puts on an act/facade as both alignments. This masks his scumplay while giving him plausible deniability because he acts equally weird as town. Given that he plays like a survivor and apparently doesn't wanna be good enough to get shot by scum, I would call him a LyLo liability and would be fine with a lynch on him at any point (I'm a Lynch All Survivors kinda guy) until he cuts the act and gives us something readable.

You: I'm not gonna answer this one. How does that make you feel?

Yes, I force reads at the beginning of every D1. Builds a foundation on which I can develop future reads, gets my momentum going. And I guess it generates discussion or some shit; everyone's discussing it. I'm not so inconfident as to believe that I can't read early posts, but I'm also not so arrogant as to think that those reads won't change. And when they do change, I'll say so, so you guys can see the path of my thought process through the day. That's the point.
The only games where I don't do reads lists and shit is when I'm confirmed town. No point in giving you guys a record of my thoughts when you already know for sure I'm town.

[Mathdino]

My vote stands on Mr. "Votes A Guy For Making A Reads List".

@Almost50:

Where the fuck do you think I got my town lean on you?

@Red:

Because people apparently can't read between the lines, when I say "he speaks like a player and not a townie" that literally means I lowkey think Kop is scum.

Getting town vibes from Assemble. Red is probably surface-level-scumhunting town (lol at "scum would not start a discussion").

I'm torn on Hawk. I love his post 96 and I think it's objectively #goodposting but I can't bring myself to townread it.

@Hawk:

ey bby hit me up with one of ur dopeass scumgames pretty pls

I was going to townread Impede but his last post makes me feel iffy.

Might do a questions list later on if I feel like it, might not.

[Mathdino]

well you're clearly aware of it so that nulls the fuck out of my read

thanks dude

[Mathdino]

After stumbling my first game, I learned I like the way I play now, and it will eventually adapt, but that's for future me to deal with. What I don't get is the fact your already pushing me out as a liability, Dino. If you want to discredit me in the game, do it when I actually have something really tangible to push against.

Your also even more pushy then before, too. Thinking about what kop said, with you trying so early and yard to get out reads, I'm inclined to believe his statement until further evidence is given.

I've done meta on you, and I'm going off that meta, not off anything else (don't talk about or reference ongoing games, the circumstances may be different). I understand that your playstyle works for you; my perspective is I like to be able to read players and I'm generally okay lynching players I find unreadable. In your case I think that unreadability is purposeful.

That said, this is a misrep. I made a list of all players that had posted during RVS and came up with a read on them. Yours was the following:

Jay: seems to be actively playing to his own meta. i don't think his behavior is super alignment indicative in general, and he's kind of a fluffy fluffer. i'm good with lynching him as a player until he learns not to be scummy. but then again he's probably town doing that weird "forced meta" thing

It was only after Kop questioned me about it that I expanded and posted what you're now responding to. My intent was not to push you as a lynch or make lynching you a massive topic of discussion because I think that's, right now, a distraction from actual scumhunting.

If you believe him on me being scum, why aren't you voting me?

[Mathdino]

You realise that it benefits scum more than town to withhold your vote all day?

[Mathdino]

VOTE: JaydragonKing

You don't seem to understand that you're intentionally being anti-town. Or you do understand and don't really care. This game is not about personal benefit, it's a team game.

Because people will inevitably ask me, no, I don't have a read on this guy, when I earlier said that he's "probably town doing that forced meta thing" I meant he literally has a 75% chance of being town. But whatever.

[Mathdino]

this game is low energy as shit

Kop is seeming townier to me at this point.

Is momo usually scummy in this particular way? He's unironically arguing that people who double vote in RVS are anti-town for generating fake chaos. Also "All those of you who double and triple voted need to get your shit together and start playing towards the town wincon" seems like he already knows that he's chewing out townies. What's his scumgame like?

A50 is either town or is rhetorically masturbating to his own playstyle. Which would be pretty ballsy scum, but I'm not planning on spending too much time deconstructing a generally helpful player on D1. We'll revisit that read if we're both alive later on.

I guess I'll ISO people and do a questions thing

[Mathdino]

Do you have any lynch ideas then? I agree with (idk who said this) someone that lynching Jay is a good option but shouldn't be the only topic of discussion. I don't really have any ideas for discussion though.

[Mathdino]

Long deadlines benefit scum. I'll support extension only if there are replacements or we seriously need input from certain players.

I don't like RedFlavor's last post. Seems opportunistic.

VOTE: RedFlavor

As good a place as any to start a non-policy wagon.

[Mathdino]

I mean that lowkey implies some shit like HEY GUYS I'M A COP WITH AN INNOCENT ON REDFLAVOR. Or masons or something.

Luckily I can't claim either. This is a good wagon, sheep meeeee

[Mathdino]

Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved

[Mathdino]

a quick lolcase
to be clear my previous read on red was based off tonereading which is horseshit compared to motivation reading

VOTE: RedFlavor

They fled the last game and left us wandering in the darkness. It's payback time.

I don't remember that game but it is probably howl or magic girls
VOTE: almost50

This is almost definitely affected by my confbias of now scumreading Red but
this is weird, it's like he's going through the motions of throwing out a random vote. No fake-RVS reason given, just a vote.

I don't think that Mathdino is scum because posting reads this early will start a discussion and a scum would not do that. The part where he says "he speaks like a player and not a townie?" is kinda weird tho

btw I also don't know anything about anyone except una, I played my first game with him however it was like 4 months ago and I forgot about that game (on purpose ).

Earlier I called this surface level scumhunting and then assumed that people who do that are just bad town. I haven't seen further evidence of Red being bad town so I consider this terrible reason for calling me town (followed by lowkey throwing shade at a supposed townread) kinda scummy.

kop's questions to mathdino about others and himself seems ok and townie.
And other people are null
BTW, I have 3 finished games here but I played a few games on other sites

Scum's best tool is divide & conquer. Kop's whole thing was "wow posting a reads list this early, seems forced". I see Red encouraging this on purpose to fan that conflict.

Tbh if Kop is scum then Red is probably not scum with him but we have no information so fuck pre-flip associatives.

It was RVS and double votes were under the VC. You could easily check if they were double votes and I dont know how it is bad for town. For kop, he dont really try hard to look like town like momo did in his post. What I think is momo is trying to look townie here because he is scum.
VOTE: momo

A dumbass vote after we just had a whole discussion about momo-lynchbait. Opportunistic, voting someone for calling something else anti-town. "He's trying to look town" is the most basic reason possible to call someone scum.

What's up humans?

This is Finn's entire ISO! Assemble also posted once, but -at least- he said something game-related.

Let me lead by example

VOTE: BigFinn

Yes he have been really quiet and it started to becoming suspicious

Again fanning the flames. BigFinn will probably get replaced, Lynching All Lurkers isn't really a helpful discussion to have.

Basically I haven't seen a single good thought from RedFlavor so far, but I see a lot of thoughts and baseless reads thrown around.

On reread, this isn't gonna be very convincing because you guys will literally just disagree with me on what's a pro-town discussion to have. But at the very least this tells you where I'm at.

my wagons are awesome, sheep meeeeeeee

[Mathdino]

Unas town so there's 1/5 of your nulls solved

I think you're either wrong, or right for the wrong reason.

lol people who don't think they can correctly read people off little information
Idk argue with me. Every post Una makes seems like a town kind of self-consciousness. Seems like he's coming at this from a pro-town mindset.

as I believe Scum would be less motivated to be active during the holidays (it's a good excuse for low activity).

this is hilariously and honestly dangerously wrong

[Mathdino]

Uh, guys? I'm kinda scared when I look at the setup page.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=JK9%2B%2B

It's history at the bottom literally says town has only won with this once,while the Serial Killer and the Mafia have three each under their belt, and a draw between them. That does not bode well for the majority.

I was about to ask if you actually had a point here that relates to an action we should take. I guess I'm still asking that.

But MY point is, I had an idea yesterday that I forgot to mention:

We should all hypoclaim (ideally different) Hider targets, and I will personally lynch anyone who doesn't.

There's a 53% chance there's a Hider in this setup. For those not in the know, Hider hides behind someone. If that person is shot or is scum, Hider dies. If the person is town AND isn't shot, Hider lives.
Hider is a weak-ass role specifically because it's hard as shit to tell who they hid behind. It's also tough to even decide who to hide. If you hide behind a super-townie, you run the risk of your target dying. If you hide behind a scummy/null target, you run the risk of hiding behind scum and dying. It's really only useful if you survive and can confirm someone as town. You can't even out publicly that you're hider and who you're gonna hide behind because then scum will just shoot your target if they're town.

Hypoclaiming (Hypothetical claiming) means saying "If I WERE the hider (which I might be), I would hide behind [player x]". As mafia doesn't know who the hider is, they can't just shoot the hider's target and expect to kill someone. If/when hider actually does die, we'll know who they hid behind.

So I'll start.

If I were hider, I would hide behind havingfitz.

Everyone else should go at some point before the day ends.

[Mathdino]

Oh don't you dare Momo. I'm not going to keep saying it so it doesn't get annoying, But I still want to live. Don't bait kill me.

But if I HAVE to play along with Dino... I wouldn't even hide night one and function as a named townie day two.

Bro the whole point is that if we all claim a different hider target, EVERYONE turns into NK-bait. Ideally every single one of us will be someone's hypothetical target. So that way scum doesn't have a better chance of killing a hider by shooting one person over anyone else.

Also you wouldn't even be a named townie D2. If you claimed hider we'd have literally no way to confirm that. Counterclaiming doesn't work in this setup. Maybe we're all VTs, maybe there's 4 town PRs, who knows. You'd be even less believable if you claimed hider and then said "whoops I don't have any results to share with the class".

If you are a hider, please please hide tonight. More information is better than no information. Acting like a VT is just throwing away your power.

And yeah the game is crawling along. Happy New Year's Day? I'm currently good with a lynch on RedFlavor or Jaydragon, and would like prods on inactives. I'm guessing BigFinn isn't gonna show up at all.

[Mathdino]

But being a hider comes with the risk of fucking with town even more if you hide in the wrong place. Scum can shoot a townie who the hider is on and they die, everyone-town and scum alike- could make a case that they he was on a scum instead and died that way. You can't ignore the benefit of having a named townie day 2.

2 points you're making here.

1. It's bad to hide.

This is objectively wrong, and if it were true, hider wouldn't even be a normal role. If EVERYONE says "If I were hider, I'd hide behind [x]" then scum doesn't know who to shoot, and if the hider dies, we'll know the next day who they hid behind so we can decipher the night action.

Also the whole point of claiming who you'll hypothetically hide behind is so no one can make the case that the hider died by hiding behind scum. I'm doing this specifically to nullify scum's ability to make that case.

2. Hider is effectively a named townie on D2.

Claiming hider does not clear someone. There's a high chance we don't have a hider at all, which would make hider a great fakeclaim for mafia. This isn't a benefit at all, it's just added WIFOM. A claimed Hider is absolutely useless if they don't have information to share.

[Mathdino]

I really am finding it hard to understand the hider role... But if I just compare it to another role, let's just say it's a semi-weak cop. So your brilliant solution to let him do his investigations with the illusion of scum not being able to figure out he is visiting. Great.

[snip]

It's actually a much weaker cop, since it also dies if scum shoots the hider target.

Here's the situation I'm trying to avoid: "JaydragonKing has died N1! He was the Hider! [Player X] has died last night! She was a Vanilla Townie!" In this situation, we don't know if you died by hiding behind scum, or by hiding behind Player X.

But if you hypoclaim that you're hiding behind Player Y, then we'll all know that you hid behind Player Y and died while scum shot Player X. THAT is the point of hypoclaiming. It allows us to find scum if/when Hider dies by hiding behind scum, as an additional benefit to Hider being able to already confirm people as town.

Relying on a Tracker that may not exist is a bad idea when Tracker doesn't even know who the Hider is. If there were FOR SURE a Tracker AND a Hider (Hard Boiled Mafia), I would support that idea 100%. That's actually exactly what I tried to implement when I played Hard Boiled.

Doesn't the hider die with the person shot??

Example for arguments sake I am a hider and we all claim our hypohider targets while I claim my actual target.

Scenario 1.
Kop is town and is shot.
We both die. Doesn't really help town.

Kop is scum and I die.
Kop is confirmed scum unless someone claims like doc right?

That's what I'm getting from hider right? They're like suicidal cops at night? Or are the protective roles??

Pedit: Are we guranteed tracker with a hider??

You're basically right. Hider dies if they hide behind scum or a person who dies that night.

Scenario 1 is correct, but could happen even if you didn't hypoclaim, and at least we know you didn't hide behind scum.
Scenario 2 is exactly correct and is the purpose of this plan.

The ideal of course is that Hider gets multiple nights to "investigate" so they can also clear someone as town by hiding behind them. Hypoclaiming allows us to see their hiding history if they happen to die later on before hardclaiming.

[Mathdino]

Holy shit, Hider should absolutely not claim today, I think this is obvious xD

Why would Hider claim right now when we could all just hypoclaim and mafia has no idea who to shoot?

And yes, natural action resolution dictates that the Tracker does see where the Hider goes. I've played with Tracker/Hider before.

But it's more likely than not that we don't have a Tracker/Hider combo, so doing that is useless

. Again, if we for sure had a Tracker/Hider, I would agree with you (read my Hard Boiled Mafia game), but we don't have that for sure, so Hider hypoclaiming is our best option.

[Mathdino]

79 feels forced

Yes, I force reads at the beginning of every D1. Builds a foundation on which I can develop future reads, gets my momentum going. And I guess it generates discussion or some shit; everyone's discussing it. I'm not so inconfident as to believe that I can't read early posts, but I'm also not so arrogant as to think that those reads won't change. And when they do change, I'll say so, so you guys can see the path of my thought process through the day. That's the point.
The only games where I don't do reads lists and shit is when I'm confirmed town. No point in giving you guys a record of my thoughts when you already know for sure I'm town.

See this. I prefer forcing reads in situations where I don't know what to do, than saying "whelp idk what to do".

I don't think that Mathdino is scum because posting reads this early will start a discussion and a scum would not do that.

good scum try to control the discussion

This is correct, and is why I didn't like RedFlavor handing me a townread for that. I don't think in general that making an early reads list is alignment indicative.

[Mathdino]

math, which reads are purely unforced?

I don't think I can really answer this. Like my thought process at the time was sitting down and going

Me: PolicyWagoning Kop is cool but doesn't really do anything interesting for us
Me: Bunch of people have posted, it's as good a time as any to do a reads list
Me: Nothing super stands out, I'll just ISO everyone and toneread them
*does so*

This is kind of the process of me coming up with reads lists in general. If you see me point out something in the moment being like "THIS SHIT IS TOWN" or "OH SHIT THAT WAS SCUMMY" that would be purely unforced. But forcing myself to come up with thoughts is part of my scumhunting process. And if I'm alive lategame, and there's a ton of material to look through, my process will be wiping myself of any preconceptions (bias is bad) and forcing potentially new reads on the ISOs of the remaining players.

Hope that helps you understand how I think.

Here's another example, as I was about to press submit, I was like "Huh, sheep's given material for me to work with now". So I read through your posts this past page and just decided you were town. Good to know.

sheep's probably town, displays clear pro-town reasoning and flow of thought, without opportunism.

[Mathdino]

Totally not game-related and definitely not buddying: Math, if you're ever interested in a hydra, I really like your playstyle and feel like I could learn a thing or two if you're up for it after certain game(s) end.

Thanks! The last time I started hydraing with people to spice things up I overgamed myself and started flaking, so hit me up after this game is over or after I'm dead and that'd sound fun.

And lol at Jay literally critiquing someone's word choice rather than their alignment.

Jay, gimme reads, let's go.

[Mathdino]

momo @ Jay
Creature @ Hawk
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Assemblerotws @ UnaBombaH
Kop @ Almost50
Almost50 @ Creature
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop
havingfitz --------------
Impede @ momo
Mathdino @ havingfitz
JaydragonKing @ NOONE

I think every target's been taken except RedFlavor and Assemble. fitz and Jay can fight over those 2.

For those wondering what we'll do when someone gets lynched, we can "close the loop" so to speak. I'll explain when we get closer to the actual lynch but the idea is that if, for example, I got lynched, the guy targeting me (Una) would instead target my target (havingfitz).

sheep's probably town but I know nothing about his scum meta so what the fuck do I know.

This game is progressing really slowly.

PEdit: lol that feel when momo's reads are dependent on how people read him

[Mathdino]

How does me posting about the unfortunate nature of previous townies in this setup make you want to Lynch me? Did the news unsettle you that much?

How does you posting about the unfortunate nature of previous townies in this setup actually help anyone? I assume you have a finite amount of time to play. If you spend that time doing/saying useless things (like you've been doing), people will suspect you for it.

My reads haven't shifted so far. I'm getting the standard "top-tier player" read from fitz, which is that he has good thoughts and adds to the discussion, but he would also obviously be doing all that as scum. So we'll wait a bit on locking that read.

Lynchpool is still basically RedFlavor and Jay.

@fitz:

Impede-scum is an unpopular choice. Sell me/the rest of the class on it? Would be good to have competing wagons.

[Mathdino]

Me giving the setup history wasn't really useless for those of us who can study the previous uses of this setup for better strats, Dino. People can disagree with what I said, but none of what I've said is truly useless. The fact that you consider stuff like that useless is more telling to me, honestly.

Yet I provided you with a better strat informed by my experience with Opens, and you outright denied it until the majority forced you to. You actually thought the hider hiding at all is useless.

You still haven't given me reads.

[Mathdino]

Again, Instantly changing your mind right after you said something. Very nice, Sheep.

Please demonstrate towards the class your answer and your personal reasoning. This project will be worth 20% of your final grade.

"it's scummy to change your mind given new evidence"
"everyone else has to give reasoning but not me"
"i can be condescending but no one else can"

VOTE: Jay

This is a distraction. We have enough players to spend a lynch on a LyLo liability. Ideally a tight wagon will motivate better play.

[Mathdino]

I want to actually contribute nicely, but I decided to also be a shithead and post my reads the way I did if for no other reason then to annoy him.

you failed

i am genuinely entertained by your reads list and this makes me slightly less likely to policy lynch you

but yeah moving on

[Mathdino]

I also want everyone to try again on who they scumread/want to lynch for today.
Both Elsa and Red are on the table as lynch-candidates, but I have reason to believe I already found scum, and his buddies conveniently "missed" the tells.
Turning towards the easy target (Elsa) right now makes me think there's already scum in the wagon..

Please just explain. Game's slow enough that I think you're gonna have to wait a while before you get answers from everyone.

In case you needed more evidence on Una being town, A50, there you go. Scum doesn't write shit like this.

[Mathdino]

@Almost50: I try not to lynch people that I have a feeling I can get the mod to replace.

I'm not a fan of relying on night actions in a setup like this, where it's possible the town consists of like 2 1-shot power roles.

I think I have a few solidified townreads. Problem is this playerlist is full of high-quality similar-playstyle players with a couple VI-esques. Not an easy to read cohort.

But more wagons helps us with later analysis. We have about a week to produce good content for later days. I'm good with our current path (as long as people start getting in here and being active).

PEdit: Wow Creature just beetlejuiced into the thread. No prod requests then.

[Mathdino]

I don't yet have a strong opinion on A50. My input is just that A50's playstyle/relationship toward me reminds me very strongly of Wisdom's in Open 581, which was buddying (I buddied back) and explicitly saying in the scum PT that he'd pocketed me. Eventually figured it out and lynched him D2.

I'm pretty good at strong-defending my townreads so I think I come across as an attractive player to buddy. Next time I do a reads list I'll go over his ISO and see if that's what's going on.

[Mathdino]

Idea of Una-scum is crazy. He hasn't convinced me on his reads yet but he's definitely convinced me on his alignment.

A point in A50's favour is that he redirected the whole game to suddenly focus on a budding Creature wagon, which seems to consist solely of scummy players. I don't see the scum motivation yet.

I could strong-scumread A50 later but he's not a good D1 lynch.

For D1 lynches I like lynching players that the consensus agrees are too scummy to stay in the game or read properly for the rest of the game. The players that'll continue being on everyone's lynchlists until we do the deed. Not the players that are clearly contributing new/original ideas. Even if they're scum, they're helping us in the meantime by giving us more material to analyse later.

A50 and Hawk are in that boat (fitz too but less so since I'm townreading him); I could scumread them, and I'm having serious trouble reading them now, but that's D1 syndrome. When players like that are scum, I usually catch them D2.

Gimme a different scumread to work with.

[Mathdino]

I'm not comfortable coming up with a set of 3 consistent scumreads while there are still a few players that are unreadably inactive.

I agree with whoever said that this game doesn't really have anyone who *pops*. It's getting me to start thinking in good lynches rather than massive scumreads. Honestly, my only solid scumread is Red. Jay and maybe Creature are just good lynches.

[Mathdino]

If Red is town (as almost all D1 lynches are), my gut says that his townishness will come out later. It's possible his lynch will be unnecessary.

If Jay is town, I don't think it'll ever be obvious. He either gets lynched or goes to LyLo. There's no way he's getting shot.

He's LyLo mislynch bait.

[Mathdino]

Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.

Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.

[Mathdino]

For some reason I had it in my mind that A50 started the "Lynch Creature" idea. Now that I see he only started advocating that after the idea was presented, that definitely blows some of his towncred. So touche on that.

I agree with most of the reasons of why Red is scum, and Creature is there because not only is his RVS vote still on me after all this time, his only relevant comment recently was answering Math's general question to everyone in one sentence only after Dino shit on me for saying "none", he didn't want the same thing and just said it to say he was there.

That said, this is half OMGUS. Not the most substantial thing and you only came up with it after we started pressuring you to come up with reads. You can squeeze original ideas out of any player, town or scum, with enough votes.

So continuing to threaten Jay with a lynch actually has a lot of utility in my mind.

[Mathdino]

I understand that point on what your trying to make, but from my understanding, it would be useful if they went with there feels, rather than 'oh he's took him, I'll take someone else'. That way I can see what they are feeling and not going with the flow of the game.

I chose mine, without even looking at others, and went with what I feel I would have done if this were the real case.

I understand your point too (still disagree, but I get it). I wasn't really intending to read into people's hider choices. That was a process of optimising nightplay, not dayplay. As it is, since everyone's already picked, I don't see much utility in going back and repicking. And to have people swap their hider picks would just draw the NK to them because it only matters if they're actually the hider.

[Mathdino]

Quick thing, I picked fitz first and I encouraged everyone to pick different hider targets so it wouldn't draw the NK to any one person in particular.

Impede case isn't bad. It's convinced me out of a townread. Hasn't convinced me into a scumread. I see a lot of flak for his interaction with Jay, which I actually like. Seems natural to me.

How do you read Impede right now?

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

Holy fuck dude I was just about to make a post agreeing with you and then I saw this bullshit:

I've legit already made it to LyLo in one complete game already, if you must know, Kop. And that one time I did, I won as scum. I will be a wonderful addition to LyLo.

You should only worry about me when there is NO active suspicion on me. That's when shit seems to be going scums way, regardless of me being scum or not.

"I've won as scum in LyLo so I'll be great when the time comes". This is half a threat, and literally just proves to me that he's ok at not getting lynched. Also didn't you replace into that game?

Anyway I don't townread Impede enough to oppose his lynch, but I don't scumread him enough to really push or care for the lynch like I do with RedFlavor.

I have enough material for another ISO-based reads list on everyone but Assemble, so expect that.

[Mathdino]

Would that even be a viable strategy? They HAVE to know that I'd just try to lynch both of them regardless of their flips.

[Mathdino]

[snip]

Bookmarking this. This is fence-sitty enough on A50 to suggest an associative read if we get a scumflip on either him or Math.

D1 lynch rationale is nice though, but scum could just as easily post this.

This is fair, and I kinda realised this upon posting. But there wasn't really a way to phrase my thoughts on A50 in a way that's both honest/not scummy. Wasn't gonna bullshit a read just to answer the question.

[Mathdino]

Good. I'm satisfied. Welcome to the game, Jay.
UNVOTE: Jay

New vote on next reads list.

[Mathdino]

jesus christ guys stop quote-walling

i'm starting to tune out this argument

[Mathdino]

No way we're lynching this unless something big changes:

Unabombah

: Good thoughts, a lot of original thoughts, seems genuinely interested in the game. Went after A50 who's almost definitely not getting lynched today. There's no scum motivation in jumping for the highest possible fruit.
Sidenote: If Jay flips scum, I'm seeing a strong association. Una's an independent town read, but Una/Jay would make a lot of sense as a team.
Sidenote: Bookmark this. If I die tonight, it will likely confirm Una's alignment one way or the other. Not saying more, don't ask me.

@Una

: Give me better lynch ideas than A50 please. You mentioned you think certain people are his buddies?

havingfitz

: Town or really good scum (the possibility of such puts him below Una). Interesting case on Impede, again seems interested in gamesolving. This is WIFOMy but policy lynching is scummy on MS and he opens with a policy lynch. Drawing that attention would be bad as scum. This assumes he plays scum differently from town in a similar way to how I play different.

@fitz

: I noticed you left sheep off your reads. Reads?

Kop

: Weird reads that I'm unconvinced on (obviously scumreading my reads list was part of that) but I at least believe now that they're genuine. Questions with clear purpose that moves the game forward and prevent it from stagnating. Pro-town even if scum.

sheep

: Just a lot of pro-town behaviour in general. If he becomes a topic of discussion, I need to meta him to find out if he's just a better/more contributing player when he's scum, because I know there are a lot of players like that this year. From seeing a few of his previous town games he's definitely better this game. Could be improvement. For now he's on the bottom of my townlist.
_______________________________

Null-town and generally bad lynch ideas

momo: I honestly don't think he's contributed much to the game, but he's not not-contributing in a way that's scummy. Most lynchable player in all of ms.net right? Good taste in wagons but that's really beside the point.

@momo:

Bro you only give scumreads. Who're your townreads?

Assemble: Needs replacement but slightly reads town.

Hawk: Reads like a good/charismatic player. I'm not gonna be able to read him well until we get some flips to use associations on.

@Hawk:

Expand on your fitz read. It's definitely an unpopular opinion.

Almost50: Yeah crucify me. I'm not willing to lynch him D1. I'm not townreading him since he kinda blew all his towncred. But I think I said this before; this is the kind of player I can catch on D2, especially with a couple flips. As promised, I ISO'd him for buddying evidence and reviewed the guy who buddied me previously. I'm not seeing it as much as I thought I was. The best tell for scum trying to buddy is, I think, completely not acknowledging townreads on them while charismatically working with the buddy target. I'm not getting that impression from A50.
_______________________________

I don't really give a shit if they're lynched:

Impede: I'm almost convinced on him but not yet. I wanna see where this argument goes. Null for now.

Jaydragon: Not super readable, but is at least acting a little pro-town. Constantly holding a lynch over his head seems to have some utility, so here it is. I'm semi-convinced by Kop suggesting that we save Jay for tomorrow tbh.

Creature

: Upon ISOing him, throwing out townreads without having a real scumhunty goal in mind is a HUGE red flag for me.

@Creature:

You need to give scumreads. Right now, you're not really in the game.
_______________________________

God I feel bad but this is the only real scumread that's popped out:

RedFlavor

: I gave a case on him already. Posts since that case are all posts that I feel have some good scum motivation. Throwing suspicion while taking credit for an unpopular opinion (don't lynch Jay guys, that's ML bait).
_______________________________

This was a lot weaker than I expected. Obviously at least one of my town-to-null-town reads is wrong. But I'm still kind of in the "who's a good D1 lynch" mindset. Scum isn't popping out to me. I expect D2 will be better.

I need to delve through all the cases going around. Gonna be honest, I haven't really read them too attentively. So that's next on the to-do list.

[Mathdino]

ohhhhhhhhhhh so that's what that post meant

thought he meant he was sheeping someone to obtain his town list

[Mathdino]

ah fuckshit i forgot a vote

VOTE: RedFlavor

I'm willing to lynch/hammer anyone below Almost50 if it comes down to the wire.

[Mathdino]

Shit, that's actually my kind of logic. You're right, Jay is a high-information lynch.

Buuuuuut I don't like to vote-hop before the results of a vote play out.

So let's see what happens with the wagons. We're not close to a lynch.

[Mathdino]

I'll offer a deal to all the townies around after I've had a good night sleep..there is a lynch we can pull off today, and not likely later!

I'm beginning to think you're being cryptic because you know people will townread you for it (like me). That's really the only benefit of doing this, and I honestly think the drawbacks of slowing the game down outweigh the gains.

Is it momo?

[Mathdino]

So momo just rocketed to the top of my town list.

[Mathdino]

Tell me class, which faction lies when questioned, scum or town?

I do have an objective problem with scumhunting in this way. My experience is that town usually fumbles more when questioned.

[Mathdino]

That makes no sense for him to say A50. A50 is literally the guy that I'm saying "I'm not willing to lynch him today, but depending on the flip I'll be much more interested in lynching him tomorrow".

What would make him think we can't get a lynch on A50 later on?

[Mathdino]

The hilarious thing is I honest to god thought masons were possible in this setup until Jay said that. I think I even suggested masons as a possibility earlier O_O

I'm unconvinced on this specific issue. Like I'm totally down for the Jay lynch but I don't think "Jay checks the wiki page" is really the keystone of the Jaycase, or some kind of smoking gun. Scumslips don't really look like this.

Edit: fuck you for ninjaing my exact thoughts

[Mathdino]

3. As you mentioned, you have not had any communication. Yet both of you tried to start a wagon together that clearly didn't have any traction going for it yet. For this to happen in between 2 town, or 1 town/1 scum, there would need to be some sort of communication. Yet here you are, working together without communication. This means that you know something the rest of us do not. More specifically, you know something that ties the two of you together that town does not. This means that you are either masons or mafia. Are you claiming masons? Because if you are not masons, you are noob scum who finds your buddy in a spot defending each other and getting caught by me.

So which is it, masons or scum?

Yeah the way this was phrased would definitely lead me to check the setup just to discredit the person pushing me. I'd be like "Okay, you're just stupid, because (*checks wiki*) I definitely can't be masons with him, so the connection you're seeing isn't even possible".

Still good with a Jaydragonwagon if/when the utility of the RedFlavor wagon runs dry.

[Mathdino]

I feel like a damn hypocrite for thinking this, because Impede is reacting almost exactly the same way I am, but if Jay flips scum, I'd be more than willing to check out Impede for scum.

[Mathdino]

A really good reaction, when you're scum, to townies being onto something, is to dole out a townread so they don't get on your ass, but quietly not actually do anything about it, or discredit the logic. The Impede/Jay case would be that Impede is on the wagon as the token softbus but doesn't necessarily intend or think Jay will be the endgame D1 lynch.

Obviously I feel mad hypocritical because sometimes in following my heart in mafia I do things that I would totally find scummy if I didn't already know my alignment. Or scummy in association to other players. Like I already knew about the me/A50 fencesitting beforehand, but I can't really change what I believe, so whatever.

So the way Impede is reacting to this makes me think scum with Jay, even though I'm reacting the same way.

[Mathdino]

Purely for the irony of modeling Jay's playstyle, I'm reserving the hammer on him for myself.

That means that

if anyone puts him at L-1, consider this intent to hammer

.

[Mathdino]

I mean yeah Assemble's vote is literally the scummiest on the whole wagon.

But I've said it before. This fiasco isn't gonna end til Jay is lynched. It's gonna be today or tomorrow.

@Kop:

I've switched to momo's side on this because of the argument that Jay is a higher-info lynch than RedFlavor, with all the available associations. I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

[Mathdino]

Yeah that's definitely a hardclaim. Shoot to prove.

VOTE: Assemble

[Mathdino]

Couple things for Jay on playing power role:

1. Do not say who you're going to shoot. This gives potential mafia bus driver an opportunity to swap your target with some random other person.
2. If it's incredibly obvious to everyone who you're gonna shoot (I'm not gonna coach you on vig strategies but a few things are pretty obv), a tactic I sometimes like to use is dice-shooting from a publicised list of 2 or 3 targets. This also gives hiders the opportunity to decide not to hide behind someone you might shoot.
3. The fact that you exist makes it more likely there's a Mafia JOAT who'll roleblock you. So if you get RB'd, and you're still alive, you'll get another chance to shoot on N2. If you haven't shot by then, we're obviously lynching you.

Edit: Hardclaim was the right call. By posting intent to hammer I was essentially asking for one.

[Mathdino]

i am fairly certain that you will not increase assemble's activity by pressuring him

Lol my vote isn't for pressure. Voting cuz scum.

Interested to see momo's take on all this.

[Mathdino]

@sheep: I wouldn't worry about it. A50's logic is pretty much balls. New reads list in order looks like:

Town: Jay, Una, momo, fitz, Kop
Null-town: sheep, Hawk
Null: Impede, A50, Creature
Scum: Red, Assemble

[Mathdino]

For anyone interested, Binomial Theorem and probability shenanigans dictate that the chances for the mafia team are:

55.1%: Goon, Goon, JOAT
22.8%: Goon, JOAT, 1-shot Bus Driver
22.0%: Goon, 1-shot Bus Driver

[Mathdino]

Yeah there are at least 5 bad pieces of logic in A50's post. I'm at the point of playing Dumb or Scum with him.

Momo, who's your lynchpool now? We're not lynching a verifiable role.

[Mathdino]

Asking for protection also serves the purpose of WIFOMing the shit out of the mafia because it makes the mafia straight up less likely to shoot you REGARDLESS of the existence or choice of the town protector.

[Mathdino]

So with Jay's claim we essentially have a version of a flip. I'm comfortable lynching with the assumption that Jay is town. His role is easily counterclaimable (

Vengefuls/Vigilantes should claim

now

so we can verify/direct everyone

) and verifiable, as opposed to something difficult to verify like JK and Tracker.

With the town flip and a wagon that nearly led to a lynch, we're VCAing for 2 kinds of players:

A. Scum that joined the wagon for shitty reasons (or thought he was SK, remember this is possibly multiball)
B. Scum that seemed to somehow know Jay was town and stayed OFF the wagon for shitty reasons.

I haven't done the VCA yet but that's my preamble.

Edit: @Impede: The setup is generated with 7 letters, each of which has a 50% chance of being a 'T'. Binomial theorem suggests that the probability distribution for the number of T's is 1:7:21:35:35:21:7:1 for 0 through 7 T's. I'm ruling out 7 T's because Jay's claim proves one letter is a K. So then I just calc'd the probabilities for the different numbers of T's that would result in different mafia team roles.

[Mathdino]

Keep in mind vig is the correct safeclaim as an SK (I'm open to ways to check if he's actually SK), and there's no reason this couldn't have been premeditated in the mafia pregame.

I'm not suggesting we should act like it's a possibility, but if he hasn't shot twice in a row, that's basically proof of him being a liar.

[Mathdino]

Now I don't know if you're Town or Scum anymore. EVERYONE is acting up like they're being deliberately scummy (maybe the setup had KKKK and we actually have TWO VENGEFUL roles??).

Since we're all playing like shit (me included) I'd also like to draw your attention my #138 cpuld be interpreted as a cumb for Hider.

NOT GOING TO CONFIRM OR DENY IT

, but that's when Una started pushing me, so I figured he wanted to lynch someone he may not be able to shoot. That is also why I initially said I know why momo TR'd me

based on a false assumption

, as I didn't (and still don't) wish to confirm or deny me being Hider/1-shot Commuter.

Yeah I'll bite.

1. I didn't interpret Jay's breadcrumb as a breadcrumb, but that's also literally the point of breadcrumbs. Not a softclaim, but something you can point to later.

2. It's impossible for there to be two vengefuls, but you're smart enough to not get any towncred for that after we already went through how knowledge of the setup is some kind of slip.

3. I interpreted 138 as intentionally WIFOMing it up. That said, scum pushing a lynch on someone they think is a hider is extremely low-utility, as people would be fairly unwilling to lynch a hider claim.

Edit: @A50: Not everyone read the game you did. Even after you revealed all your threads, I still don't see it like you do. So calm yo ass and come up with a real reads list beyond "everyone's scummy".

[Mathdino]

If Una thought you were hider, wouldn't he just shoot the person you claim you're gonna hide behind, rather than try to solo a wagon on you?

[Mathdino]

I concede that point to your clearly superior knowledge of the wiki page. Skimmed and read KKKK as Vengeful + 3 Vigs.

A bunch of vote IIoA incoming followed by VCA.

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: List of Votes

Almost50 -> RedFlavor, 1, RV
RedFlavor -> Almost50, 1, RV/OMGUS
havingfitz -> Assemble, 1, RV??
Mathdino ->

Jaydragon

, 1, RV/reaction test
Una ->

Jaydragon

, 2, RV
havingfitz XX Assemble, 0
havingfitz ->

Jaydragon

, 3, RV wagoning
Creature ->

Jaydragon

, 4, RV
RedFlavor XX Almost50, 0
RedFlavor ->

Jaydragon

, 5, RV wagoning
havingfitz XX

Jaydragon

, 4
havingfitz -> Kop, policy
Impede -> Una, 1, unclear scumread
Una XX

Jaydragon

, 3
Una -> Impede, 1, OMGUS
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 2
Mathdino -> Kop, 2, policy/meme
Una XX Impede, 0
Una ->

Jaydragon

, 3, RV?
Kop -> Almost50, 1, RV
momo -> RedFlavor, 2, scumread
Kop XX Almost50, 0
Kop -> Mathdino, 1, scumread for forced reads list
Mathdino XX Kop, 1
Mathdino ->

Jaydragon

, 4, policy/pressure
havingfitz XX Kop, 0, VLA
Almost50 XX RedFlavor, 1
Almost50 -> BigFinn, 1, inactivity
RedFlavor XX

Jaydragon

, 3
RedFlavor -> momo, 1, for complaining about double votes
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 2
Mathdino -> RedFlavor, 2, opportunistic vote
Almost50 XX BigFinn, 0
Almost50 -> RedFlavor, 3, testing Math's case
Una XX

Jaydragon

, 1
Una -> Almost50, 1, scumreading 172 and 175
sheep -> RedFlavor, 4, scumread
havingfitz ->

Jaydragon

, 2, scumreading Jay's 115, 178, and hider talk
sheep XX RedFlavor, 3
sheep ->

Jaydragon

, 3, for uselessly talking about the setup
Mathdino XX RedFlavor, 2
Mathdino ->

Jaydragon

, 4, for 258 and policy
Impede XX Una, 0, not accomplishing anything

Jaydragon

-> Creature, 1
Impede ->

Jaydragon

, 5, in response to 265
Creature XX

Jaydragon

, 4, probably forgot who he was voting
RedFlavor XX momo, 0, still scumreading tho
RedFlavor -> Creature, 2, for trying to look active
Kop XX Mathdino, 0
Kop -> Impede, 1, case in 322
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 3, satisfied with Jay's contribution
momo XX RedFlavor, 1
momo ->

Jaydragon

, 4, supposes buddies with Red
Mathdino -> RedFlavor, 2, top scumread
Assemble ->

Jaydragon

, 5, policyesque
Almost50 XX RedFlavor, 1
Almost50 -> Impede, 2, case in 436
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 4, vig claim
Mathdino -> Assemble, 1, scummy vote
sheep XX

Jaydragon

, 3, vig claim
sheep -> RedFlavor, 2
Impede XX

Jaydragon

, 2, vig claim
Impede -> Assemble, 2, utility/sheep Math
momo XX

Jaydragon

, 1, vig claim
momo -> Creature, 3, lack of contributions

Spoiler: Only the Jay wagon

Mathdino ->

Jaydragon

, 1, RV/reaction test
Una ->

Jaydragon

, 2, RV
havingfitz ->

Jaydragon

, 3, RV wagoning
Creature ->

Jaydragon

, 4, RV
RedFlavor ->

Jaydragon

, 5, RV wagoning
havingfitz XX

Jaydragon

, 4
Una XX

Jaydragon

, 3
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 2
Una ->

Jaydragon

, 3, RV?
Mathdino ->

Jaydragon

, 4, policy/pressure
RedFlavor XX

Jaydragon

, 3
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 2
Una XX

Jaydragon

, 1
havingfitz ->

Jaydragon

, 2, scumreading Jay's 115, 178, and hider talk
sheep ->

Jaydragon

, 3, for uselessly talking about the setup
Mathdino ->

Jaydragon

, 4, for 258 and policy

Jaydragon

-> Creature, 1
Impede ->

Jaydragon

, 5, in response to 265
Creature XX

Jaydragon

, 4, probably forgot who he was voting
Mathdino XX

Jaydragon

, 3, satisfied with Jay's contribution
momo ->

Jaydragon

, 4, supposes buddies with Red
Assemble ->

Jaydragon

, 5, policyesque

Players who were on the wagon:

Mathdino (RVS and serious)
UnaBombaH (only RVS, twice)
havingfitz (RVS and serious)
Creature (only RVS)
RedFlavor (only RVS)
sheep (serious)
Impede (serious)
momo (serious)
Assemble (serious)

Players who weren't on the wagon:

UnaBombaH (only RVS, seems to think Jay is wrong town, willing to policy lynch him, but seems to think he's town in 390)
Almost50 (claims to have known he was vig)
Hawk (wasn't here for basically any of the wagon)
Creature (no comment)
RedFlavor ("If jay was wolf he probably would not say something about survivor challange so please do not vote him")
Kop (feels like Jay is easy mislynch and is low-info, says we can just lynch him later, prefers voting Impede)

[Mathdino]

So my best guess is... 2 scum off the wagon and 1 scum (Assemble) on the wagon. Something like that.

This reflects badly on Una, I'll concede that. His behaviour around Jay is really weird.
Giving A50 the benefit of the doubt. That's not a lynch that's happening today.
Hawk is null in relation to the wagon.
Creature hasn't contributed shit, so of course he wasn't on the wagon.
RedFlavor had kind of a random reason to strong townread Jay. Might be confbias but this counts as the "scum who suspiciously knows Jay is town".
Kop had really good reasons for being off the wagon I think. However, the Kop-scum situation I can think of is "Jay might be SK, so let's wait til tomorrow to see if we should lynch him". Paranoia.

Of those on the wagon:
I'm town. ISO me if you wanna do my blurb.
havingfitz had a whole bunch of reasons. His vote seemed to have purpose.
sheep's vote was explicitly for pressure. Says he got a bad OMGUS afterward. I believe this.
Impede voted in response to Jay's case on Creature, says it was full of OMGUS. Didn't like the survival play. Impede is a controversial topic. Not gonna go too far into this until I have something more readable.
momo fucking clearly believed he was onto something.
Assemble's vote was obviously the most opportunistic point to jump on.

[Mathdino]

For a townbloc I have me, mathdino, a50, and even Impede. He was the first to post his thoughts in support of my attempt to catch Jay but also the first to point out the flaws..But even when a50 made a strong towny post against me (which I maintain as false) he didn't do what scum would do an move with the changing tides. He quoted the post and picked it apart. That's what town would do. They would stay to what they believe.

This is somewhat of a self-centred read (I do this all the time). The tide wasn't changing or turning against you. People were EXTREMELY clear on you being town. Scum, if they wanted to fit in, would continue to "townread" you.

I agree with most of the rest of your post but I don't agree on outright townreading Impede yet.

I can grudgingly accept the A50 argument.

Sounds like today's gonna end up Creature vs RedFlavor vs Assemble (all lynches I'm okay with, thankfully). I disagree with whoever claimed that Assemble is always a lurker and is thus a bad vote. I'm not voting him for lurking. I was townreading him before his Jay vote. The Jay vote was scummy; you can read low-activity players all the same as high-activity.

[Mathdino]

Feels bad. I think Kop and I are the only players you didn't mention in your catchup.

Having trouble reading Kop through the new lens of Jay being town. Thoughts on us?

[Mathdino]

Impede's meta is failing to respond to accusations/questions/hypotheses directed at/about him. I'm guessing you're gonna find that he didn't respond. I'm guessing he just doesn't care about discussions about him.

And yeah there's really no point in acting as if we'll later have to lynch Jay. If the moment comes, we will, but in the meantime, acting like he's conftown is the way to go.

Thanks for the Kop analysis. You also mentioned Red offhand but not your actual thoughts on his alignment. It seems like he's everyone's 2nd or 3rd scummiest candidate but his wagon is on the backburner. As per Kop's analysis, his alignment (like Jay's) is gonna be a centerpiece in VCA/associatives going forward IMO. Thoughts?

[Mathdino]

YA THINK?

[Mathdino]

Tbh nothing about Una's reads is actually convincing me, and he's outright wrong about A50; A50 is a terribly difficult D1 lynch that gets easier as people get more paranoid later on. Like Wisdom. Or fitz. I have a compulsion to respond to a couple things re: me tho:

Mathdino has provided good content, and was one of the more solid townreads I have. BUT. I had a very strong feeling they were avoiding commenting on A50, and sort of automatically "townbinned" them. This went against my own read of actually scumleaning them, and raised some flags for me. Dino has since taken a more based and argumented stance on A50, but I fear it's only because I asked for it.

Gonna stop you there. It seems like you're doing this speculation about what my intentions are when you could've just asked me and I'd have told you exactly the same thing

Like literally, your "strong feeling" is exactly what I was doing. There were a few posts where I explained WHY it is I was doing that. My best recollection of my A50 read progression is:
- Start out auto-townbinning
- Go back and forth between town/nullreading him as he blows his own towncred
- Decide it's just easier to townsort him for now
- Realised that I had no real reason to townsort him, but I definitely don't wanna lynch him
- Suspicions fly (mostly from Una) and I realise I GUESS he could be scum but he's definitely not my kind of D1 lynch
- When the momo/Jay argument was at its peak I dropped him into my lynchables list
- When Jay conftowned I put A50 back in my tentatively town list
Where he remains.
And yeah, you're right, I did to some extent start looking at A50 in a different light because you suggested it. It's probably not gonna turn into any action from me if that's what you want. I'm back to nulltowning him. We'll see tomorrow.
I agree actually that the frustration seems fake. Kinda subconsciously felt that.
But I'm not basing my reads 20 pages in on tone. Not my game.

tl;dr you're absolutely right about everything you've said about me.
With the exception that I think I MIGHT suggest the hypoclaim idea if I felt someone else in the playerlist might do it if I didn't? Idk what Open culture is like nowadays but I used to snatch up shittons of towncred from being the first to gamebreak every Open. So that kind of thing is kinda automatic, and you're not gonna have fun with me in future games if you base your reads off of me night-strategising

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: With the exception that I think I MIGHT suggest the hypoclaim idea

as scum

Point is that setup-breaking is so deeply ingrained into my meta that I'm afraid if people start townreading me every time I do that, they're gonna get super let down when I inevitably do that as scum, and then they're gonna stop actually believing that my strategies work (which they do). So I wanna get that idea out of your head for the sake of my future games.

[Mathdino]

if i were you i would be doing this endgame

Yeah you're right I need to stop assuming people know my alignment already, this shit is literally the cause of every time I've been mislynched

I'm sleep deprived as shit, I'll stop WIFOMing my own meta now

[Mathdino]

Are we done here yet?

We've effectively strong-townblocked Jay, momo, me, Hawk, fitz, sheep.
momo is blocking a A50 lynch and I'm blocking a Una lynch. I'm pretty sure there's someone else blocking Impede.

Leaves Creature, Kop, Assemble, and RedFlavor. No one's actually scumreading Kop.

We just need a scumflip to really get the game going. Obviously it's super unlikely that the massive townbloc we've created is entirely town.

So help me out: are we voting Creature because Creature is basically the new Jay, or because we legitimately think Creature-scum is more likely than Red-scum and Assemble-scum?

[Mathdino]

I mean that's not a GOOD thing, and if Creature is THIS bad it does deserve a policy lynch/vengekill/etc just as much as Jay deserved it.

But I'd also rather get a scumflip. Creature isn't as "take-over-the-game-with-shenanigans-and-confrontations" as Jay and so I feel like this isn't as high a priority on the policy side.

Assemble is supposedly always a lurker. Great, so a good policy target AND a super scummy player.

Or we could just lynch scum in RedFlavor.

[Mathdino]

Assemble posts enough to not get replaced. Players like that are endgame liabilities. Kop will probably just actually get replaced, or if he doesn't, at least he'll contribute a ton.

The RedFlavor wagon seems to have lost all momentum, even in my mind. Seems like there's always a better fad.

That actually concerns me. If he were town I'd expect more scum to wagon split and jump back to him with an actually pretty solid case given that he's our only scumread that's actually been contributing. So based on the town's behaviour around the different wagons, RedFlavor is pretty likely to be scum right now.

Plus the very fact that the Jay wagon totally took off implies that this scum isn't full of bussers (that is obviously now null now that I've said it). Scum isn't voting for each other, and so a D1 scumflip is gonna be hard to pull off. I think that'll only happen with the unpopular options.

PEdit:
VOTE: RedFlavor
Fantastic.

[Mathdino]

did you even read the rest of my post

do i have to spell everything out to towns these days

read between the lines, i don't have to literally say "X is scum" to be clear that i suspect them

this literally happened with my first reads list this game too

[Mathdino]

VC 1.17

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Creature (4) -

JaydragonKing, RedFlavor, momo, Almost50

Assemblerotws (3) -

Mathdino, Impede, Hawk

Impede (2) -

Kop, havingfitz

JaydragonKing (1) -

Assemblerotws

Almost50 (1) -

UnabombaH

RedFlavor (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Not voting

- Creature

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-01-12 08:00:00)

I'm willing to bet, based on the trajectory of the day, that bussing isn't going on here.

That indicates to me that there's scum in {Assemble, Impede, Hawk}, scum in {Creature, RedFlavor, A50}, and then a final scum that's been in our townbloc the whole time. Probably someone in {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una}.

[Mathdino]

sheep is right. There's absolutely no way the scumteam is ACTUALLY just our 3 top scumreads. We're gonna have to pick into the nulltownbloc later on.

The question today is who to hit to be most likely to hit scum so we can analyse things later. I'm sure if we had a scumflip on one of your 3 already, it would start pointing to players other than {Assemble, RedFlavor, Creature}.

I don't like how you say it has to be creature or redflavor because creature's vote never was on red. As you say, there was no bussing in between them. And there is a link indicating buddies considering creature's defense of red....

RedFlavor's vote is on Creature. Why wouldn't he just vote Assemble?

[Mathdino]

What do you do if:

A. RedFlavor flips green (or self-confirms)
B. Creature flips green (or self-confirms)

Do you switch to the other?

And if they both flip green/self-confirm?

[Mathdino]

please stop quote walling and pagetopping thanks

momo answer my question pls that was directed at you

[Mathdino]

that's untrue

we have 3 mislynches available to us assuming scum kills every night and no SK

game wouldn't be over

you're tunneling harder than even i do sometimes

[Mathdino]

you don't know how awesome i am at gamesolving lylos

[Mathdino]

you don't know how awesome i am at gamesolving lylos

are you trying to get yourself killed before lylo

bitch i'm playing 4d chess here

[Mathdino]

aren't you in HS?

do i, as a teacher, know memes better than high schoolers now?

omfg my life goal is complete

[Mathdino]

Sheep are you an alt?

If so, of who

Don't go there or you might be asked the same.

OH SHIT I UNDERSTOOD THAT REFERENCE

[Mathdino]

An Itemized List Of Interactions/Mentions Between RedFlavor/Impede

Red, seems to me that momo’s frustration was genuine. He seemed annoyed that town would multi-vote since it only makes the game confusing.

The flip side is, it’s probably a decent reaction test to make it look like someone got hammered. So I disagree somewhat, but he at least seemed to be genuine.

Pedit: Momo makes a good point about the Jay wagon. This makes Red look bad. However, I don’t like momo’s confidence in townreading A50. Seems contrived.

If he was mislynched in other games it does not mean that he is town every game and he is most likely scum in this game

Why do you say he is most likely scum?

pedit: The case on Red is good. Dude comes off opportunistic and not really interested in advancing any meaningful discussion.

I want to throw this out there though: What if Red is just bad/newb town? Are we cool with policy lynching? It seems to me based on other play I've seen from him that there's a decent chance he's just a careless player and may just be throwing out bad content just to keep active.

As far as policy lynching goes, I love policy lynching and will string someone up in a heartbeat if there's a decent chance they are either scum or just bad/lurking. Just want to be sure that we're convinced that he's either NOT newbtowning or that we SHOULD be policy lynching.

2)

@Sheep

, you literally just got done saying that you preferred Red over Jay. It made sense to me at the time, but now you're on the Jaywagon. Why did you prefer Red over Jay initially and what changed your mind?

My lynchpool is, in order: Assemble, Creature, Red, and I’ll just throw in Kop for good measure as he’s a bit marginal for me.

Although I can share this tidbit now: Just finished a game with Red where his posting style and level of activity was similar. He seems to be trying maybe a tad bit harder here. He was VT.

Red is ML bait upon reread. Don’t know if he’s for sure Town, but his posting style and general demeanor is epic ML bait.

436 from almost50 seems townie, impede is probably the scum instead of almost50

So either they're scum together, or Impede knows Red is town already right?

[Mathdino]

Why did the weird Jay wagon happen so fast beginning of the game? Is there some inside joke I’m not in on? All the votes looked like joke/RVS votes, but it just seems weird to run up the VC on a single player so fast no?
Math, Una, Fitz, Creature? Care to elaborate?

I'll take sole responsibility for that. I meta'd Jay before we started his and my last (now completed) game together and found that he responds really weirdly to being voted on. In this and last game I intentionally tried to start a wagon on him ASAP to see what he'd do (and see if it'd be alignment indicative). That wasn't actually a random vote for me.

[Mathdino]

OKAY

So we have Impede fencesitting on RedFlavor, Impede soft-defending AND chainsaw defending Creature (while voting Jay as an alternative), RedFlavor throwing out a scumread on Impede, Creature fencesitting on Impede, Creature soft-defending RedFlavor, and RedFlavor voting/pressuring Creature.

So there's 2/3 of the scumteam in here right? Or am I crazy?

[Mathdino]

Yeah I’m newbscum defending my partner THAT obviously. Give Scum!Impede a LITTLE credit please.

Nah you're right I do give you some credit. I don't think you're necessarily partners with RedFlavor. Partners with Creature makes a little more sense.

VOTE: Impede

Parking vote here as I go read the Impede cases that I skimmed over previously.

[Mathdino]

It’s hardcore WIFOM territory I guess though since scum would come into the game knowing that their initial posts are probably heavily tonesetting. So I could argue easily that scum would and wouldn’t run up the VC.

Pedit: Where do I start defusing that lol. Your logic is good, but I don’t recall EVER defending Creature in any meaningful way. I was going hard on Jay while he was going after Creature, but I really had no interest in whether or not Creature was wagonned. In fact, at the time I think Jay was the only vote in him. Why would Scum!Impede expose his associations so easily? I swear I’m not a stupid player. Do endeavor to not read me like one

I'm probably gonna be one of very few players that won't immediately tell you "SELF META IS TRASH/SCUMMY" so understand that I'm throwing you a bone here.

Link me to your scumgames and I'll take an honest look at associations you've made. Obviously going forward now that I've called you out, analysing your associations with these people will pretty much be null, but you know that as well as I do.

I'll show the posts I'm talking about in a sec.

[Mathdino]

An Itemized List of Impede Mentioning Creature

pedit: That's the most bizarre readslist I could possibly think of for this game. It literally just looks like one giant OMGUS to me.

Why do you scumread Creature and townread Kop? Also, don't ignore my other question in this post.

Hey all... Catching up.

... Can I at least get your reason for your vote now, Impede?

See below:

VOTE: Creature

It's a weird top scumread to have and definitely don't agree with your rationale, but trying to wagon Creature is actually town-productive here

All that to say, you managed to push me more towards scum/PL territory with that post than towards town whose play might improve.

Please tell me you all see what the points Almost and I have made so far about him? He literally doesn't give a shit. This is not a town response at all.

Valid. I could say the same about all of your survival posting too, but I feel like it would be beating a dead horse.

However, are you advocating a lynch purely based on lack of content/motivation? If so, what makes you certain that this isn't just lazy/unmotivated town as opposed to lurky/smug scum?

Pedit: There aren't any scumtells in Creature's posts. Just lots of PL fodder. Again, I love a good policy lynch, but it has to be a GOOD one. Convince me that (1) Creature has a higher probability of flipping red than you and (2) Creature has a lower probability of being town-productive than you, and I will add my vote to your wagon, if for no other reason than to try and scrounge up some motivation from him.

My lynchpool is, in order: Assemble, Creature, Red, and I’ll just throw in Kop for good measure as he’s a bit marginal for me.

Although I can share this tidbit now: Just finished a game with Red where his posting style and level of activity was similar. He seems to be trying maybe a tad bit harder here. He was VT.

Going to check out Creature some more after I put the kids to bed. Shouldn’t take long lmao. If I like what I see, I’ll happily put him at L-2. Stay tuned.

Wow a page 2 hammer

Were you scum, Jay?

This is scumhunting. Easy to fake, but still.

[Mathdino]

We're not always aware of the weird ways we'll interact with other players when we have too much information. The way you're acting is as if you have too much information. That's not a slight toward Scumpede, that's an observation of human behaviour.

The thing is, it's not even about you being necessarily partners with Red and Creature. It's the weird interactions and observations you've had with them. I'm not totally sure your flipping red would even be alignment indicative of them. But I know something smells wrong.

Need more time for this analysis. fitz's case was okay but honestly not super convincing. Relied on Impede being partners with Jay (although his behaviour toward Jay was weird too). Kop's case was much better. Una started out on I think a good track but now is townreading Impede because Impede pointed out my weird interactions with A50.

No one's taken a real hard look at him with Jay's flip. I'm a trailblazer! (maybe)

[Mathdino]

Pedit: You’re taking my posts out of context. I never just brought him up just to bring him up. And why would I telegraph an association that hard? Scum are more likely to intentionally avoid associations unless they can get Towncred for bussing or defuse a lynch without looking like scum

Pedit3: I responded thoroughly to Kop’s case and no one gave a crap. What do you hope to achieve with all this scumlensing Math? You must see that you are in confbias land. You’re dismissing my actual motivation IN CONTEXT for all of these posts.

1. The whole point of scumhunting is training yourself to see those associations that scum try to hide. On one hand you're arguing you never intentionally brought him up, and on the other hand you're arguing scum intentionally avoid associations. That's literally what I'm scumreading. Your progression. PLUS you're ignoring the fact that I think it's possible Creature is town and you know this.

3. You know how I play . Let me do my thing.

Edit: wat. You don't get credit for saying you would hypothetically investigate Creature, lol.

[Mathdino]

No don’t you try to buddy me. Your analysis seems predatory to me and it’s worrisome. It would be one thing if you were at least giving me the benefit of the doubt where there’s ambiguity, but you’re just aiming for the throat. If you wanted my reaction, here it is. If you actually want to scumread me, then hopefully someone looks at the offchance of Scum!Dino

You know this is OMGUS. It's not gonna help your case going forward. Work on your reactions

Just keep doing your thing, dude (as in, stuff other than reacting to my case). Let me do my analysis and let the town do its thing. If you're town, it'll become obvious.

[Mathdino]

God Impede, you're so bad under pressure. Gonna explain myself real quick.

Last page, on after post 663, I did go spend 10 or 15 mins analysing your meta and the previous game. The connections that I thought I saw weren't there. In fact your play is 100% consistent with your town meta. I wasn't gonna immediately unvote though because the utility of extra wagon analysis outweighs the slight risk of getting you lynched.

In post 670, when I said "Let me do my thing", I thought you'd understand that I was testing a wagon on you. In 672 I wasn't even casing you and never got around to posting my review, because I already believed you were town at that point. Crumbed the reaction test wagon with "let the town do its thing".

Now I honestly don't know anymore. Your reaction in 682 isn't what I'd expect from town!Impede, as someone who respects town!Impede.
UNVOTE:

I'm so confused about this. The people who jumped on after I started the wagon are sheep and momo, both of whom I'm townreading (sheep loses points, I don't think momo can lose points in my book). I'm wondering if Impede is the token mislynch whose wagon consists entirely of townies, or if I'm just wrong and you're actually scum.

[Mathdino]

He made 3 PEdits, and #2 wasn't directed at me so I snipped it out of his quote. Check the post again lol.

While you're here, I need another opinion on Impede.

[Mathdino]

That was almost half the game ago, and in my opinion, Una/Impede is a dumbass theory.

Give me something modern.

PEdit: fuck you sheep

[Mathdino]

mfw unironically almost 50, nice

Okay but seriously please do read Impede's latest posts and gimme something that doesn't involve Impede being guilty by association with Una (blegh).

[Mathdino]

Fantastic, thanks. I don't need your case to be convincing, I just needed help with articulating what my subconscious was seeing.

Points you made that I didn't notice before:
- His interaction with Una. It's consistent with bussing but I'm townreading Una pretty strongly so I'm ignoring this for now. I asked for a case independent of Una
- Trying to pressure me into voting you. Interesting point, and consistent with idea of him buddying me, cuz I might irrationally subconsciously want to go after you in an effort to keep being townread.

Points you made that I've seen before:
- Seeing the possible crumb. You mentioned that and I still don't believe it. I'm only willing to believe that particular point if Creature flips scum. Ask me for more if you're interested.
- The tone of early posts. I'm similar in that I also suck at tone so I'm ignoring this (and did ignore this in my initial case).

- Reserving a whole section for flip-flopping/fencesitting/self-confidence.

Don't ask me how (rules), but I know Impede, and take it from me when I say that him constantly throwing out "well, this could be town, but this could also be scum" is exactly consistent with every town game of his that I've read through. In the time between making my initial push and then being like "Let the town do its thing, Impede" I did some meta on him and found exactly that kind of behaviour. IIRC (this was last night so I might remember wrong) I even saw some of the same phrases. "This feels town, although scum could say this".

Given that we don't have any scumgames from him, I'm calling that behaviour completely NAI.

His defence was absolute shit but I'm currently townreading him for it. Again, help me interpret Impede's behaviour RECENTLY, not over half the game ago. 284 is old news.

[Mathdino]

That's L-2. Just want to be clear in that I'm not okay with this lynch, and sheep and momo should both check my response to A50. I know you trust momos alignment (I do too) but do trust my experience of Impedes meta.

My vote was a test that got out of hand and I'm annoyed that Impede is going to (somewhat fairly) blame me for it on his deathbed.

Edit: haven't read the above, might change my mind idk yet

[Mathdino]

@Dino: Explain Impede's behaviour around Una considering all 4 cases (i.e. TvT, TvS, SvT & SvS). You may even toss in the possibility of Impede flipping SK for your own amusement. More to it: 1- Give enough reason to think Una could be Town if Impede is scum, and 2- why would Town!Impede would act like that towards a suspect.

Notice that I'm not talking about "this is NAI but i scummy" kind of remarks. I'm talking about EXPLICITLY Scum reading someone yet NEVER voting them nor interacting with them AT ALL.

Good point.

Benefit of the doubt.

I'm gonna meta Impede for that specific behaviour. If I find that he always does this shit (he has no completed scumgames), I'm going to consider your case null. If I find no evidence of him behaving like that previously, I'll accept the lynch.

[Mathdino]

Creature flipping green will turn me to Impede, just for the record.

[Mathdino]

My interpretation is that he's supporting the impede case and is attacking my credibility and defence of him.

Pronoun mixup.

[Mathdino]

k im going to jump off now

i am midday suicide bombing myself

Please don't joke about this.

[Mathdino]

I'm not attacking you. I'm prefacing my distaste at people like Momo and Sheep that almost immediate unvoted at your decision to townlean impede. You can have your read and it be valid. I don't share that opinion (you even say it's mostly meta and feel based) but two others immediately followed your suit not forming opinions of their own.

Ohhhhhh.

I'm locking momo as town right now.

But on my mind lately is that sheep just lost massive towncred for just following my vote around. My Impede vote in the first place was designed to catch that kind of behaviour.

[Mathdino]

I have. It's almost identical to my voting history. Check my ISO for the vote history list.

[Mathdino]

Yeah actually I retract that. Now that I go through my own vote history records, sheep actually voted before me on 2/4 wagons we both ended up on. So it goes both ways. Being that I'm not scum with sheep, that's not really a point against him.

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
I need to work more on showing my thought process so I don't get called opportunistic. Therefore, I am going to wallpost my readslist and reasoning in a few hours. Prod me if I do not fulfill this promise.

@Mod, request prod on Assemble.

[Mathdino]

Request deadline extension equal to the period of time between Assemble's last post and Assemble being replaced.

[Mathdino]

I was gonna post a reads list at some point but the above reads list is basically identical to mine. I don't know how to feel about that. Like if you took the in-thread progression of my thoughts and made up a "Most Likely Mathdino's Reads List" that's what you'd come up with.

So I almost did as promised. I perused Impede's meta in a couple games (Mini Normal 1961 and something else) for the specific behaviour of "repeatedly calls someone scum without voting them or pushing them". I didn't find it. So I came back to the thread to find out exactly what I was looking for. And then I discovered that A50's case is actually horseshit if you actually look at Impede's ISO.

An Itemized List of Impede's Trajectory On Una: Bonus Edition, With Annotations!

It's too early for this crap.

VOTE: Una

This is consistent with what he claimed earlier this page.

Momo, Jay
Math, A50

Kop, Hawk

Una, Fitz
-

This places Una as a top scumread.

Also, this isn't accomplishing anything right now. UNVOTE:

No one joins the Una wagon so he leaves it to go check out the town consensus. Scum would be more benefited from dying on this tunnel, IMO. It would leave him unaccountable for any major wagons.

I also want everyone to try again on who they scumread/want to lynch for today.
Both Elsa and Red are on the table as lynch-candidates, but I have reason to believe I already found scum, and his buddies conveniently "missed" the tells.
Turning towards the easy target (Elsa) right now makes me think there's already scum in the wagon..

Please just explain. Game's slow enough that I think you're gonna have to wait a while before you get answers from everyone.

In case you needed more evidence on Una being town, A50, there you go. Scum doesn't write shit like this.

Wtf? Epically disagree. I could just as easily argue that he's trying to defuse the wagon by sounding all cryptic and wise, while being non-specific so that he doesn't actually have to have a plan.

Continues not-townreading Una. Consistent with his claim earlier this page.

If this wasn't posted by scum, I'm not sure what kind of a townie it would be posted by.

This is utterly and completely valid.

You can see the evolution. I left out a question toward Una earlier on this page because it indicates nothing.

Una, what's your take on Jay? You really think he's just lynchbait?

pedit: Definitely not what I was getting at. And your case on A50 is decent on its face. I'll be reviewing. Also, not a fan of introducing further WIFOM layers by trying to predict what scum will do in-thread. Makes everything more annoying to analyze.

And now he's working with Una.

That's it. A50's case is balls. I'm gonna go through it and actually factcheck him this time. The first time I read it I just took everything he said at face value.
To reiterate just in case future historians of my ISO don't get this:
My case on Impede originally relied on weirdass interactions directed from Impede toward the RedFlavor and Creature wagons. Fencesitting, nullreading, chainsaw defending. After my review of his meta, I've determined this is NAI.

My read on Impede is back to null. He's being consistent with his town meta, but I have no sense of his scumgame to be able to just gutread him from the hip. If we lynch him, it's gonna be on D2 when we actually have the ability to analyse his motivations. Thus far, I see neither excessive (solely) town nor scum motivation.

This wagon should die and go to Creature instead. I'm guessing that at least one or two people on the wagon knew we were unlikely to lynch Impede and sat on the wagon to avoid accountability later.

VOTE: Creature

L-something, someone else do the math

[Mathdino]

Spoilering the parts of A50's case I consider nonessential. Lettering to respond. Knowing Impede, there's no fuckin way he's gonna actually defend himself in time for the deadline so here goes.

Spoiler:

Reading someone's tone is one of my weaknesses. I rely more on analysis, associations, setup spec, VCA .. etc.

Like, I could do an ISO, but most of it WILL sound forced. Like, in #74 when he blatantly accuses Jay of being SK, then follows the revelation with "Game solved". Why would TOWN consider the game solved after lynching the SK?

But let's just say that was a joke, and let's also say it was a coincidence his RVS landed on none other than Una.

A. Now even ignoring the link between Impede on Una I still don't see how he got from 152 to disliking momo's TR on me in 161 (if you're confident momo's Town, why is it odd fro momo to be confident in his TR on someone you already had a Town lean on?)

B. In 171 Impeded restates his scum lean on Una (See 152 for the first incident) yet never once did he vote or even try to interact with Una. (same applies to Impede on Fitz, btw).

B. In 274 he ONCE AGAIN says Una is likely scum, and STILL NO VOTE AND NO EFFORT TO SORT/PRESSURE Una AT ALL.

C. Now after having shaded me in 170 for no apparent reason (it's totally NAI.. but it's how SCUM would do it??), Impede agrees with his 3-TIMES A SCUM READ on me being Scum in 286. If this isn't standard distancing between 2 buddies I don't know what is.

Spoiler:

The whole BS of acvusing you of being fence-sitty on me is him indirectly trying to pressure you into voting me.

D. NVM, I'll stop right here. Overall, Impede is being tricky and sly with his posts and votes. He did see Jay's soft-claim (btw, my personal interpretation of a crumb is something that is hard to spot at the time. Jay SOFT CLAIMED. It was too obvious to be called a crumb), and he was pushing there, but he also saw my "possible crumb" and realized lynching a Hider is of higher priority bc they could just shoot the Vig at night.

E. In general, when someone says "this is NAI.. but Scummy" (!!!!), or "I could see this coming from Town, but it feels like scum" (he did it both to you and me) it does give me the impression this is someone keeping all his options open. If Town is lynched .. "but I said it could come from town". If Scum is lynched .. "I also said it looked like scum".

E. tldr; Impede is +70% scum to me. The other 30% is him being a really bad player with a problem in his self-confidence (and from what I've seen people say I don't think it the case).

Spoiler:

Once flipped, THEN I maybe able to see things better. If he flips Scum I will maintain my SR on Una with enthusiasm. If he flips SK, then we know where the "Jay is SK.. game solved" came from. If he flips Town, I'll just reevaluate my reads and go on, but I certainly won't be taking HIS reads into account after having SR'd both me and Jay.

A. This is taken dangerously out of context. He didn't state confidence in his townread on momo in 152. He literally said it was just gutreading from the past 2-3 pages. He specifically states his dislike of momo's TR on you (161) as a PEdit in response to momo's 160. It's very obvious you only looked at these posts in ISOlation.

B. You're literally wrong. He voted Una in 47, restated his scumread in 171, and unvoted in 261. He doesn't state an explicit scumread on Una in 274, he's just arguing with me townsorting him. This has no scum utility. I was already discrediting Una's play, but not his alignment. It doesn't help scumpede to be one of like two people discrediting Una's alignment. He was also at the time voting/pressuring Jay, who was clearly his stronger scumread.

C. 170 is his playstyle, see point E. 286 is him supporting Una for your weirdo "we're relying on night actions" 272 post. This is also seemingly part of his read reversal on Una. After that, he works with Una. I know you think this is scum-scum but I know I think Una is town, so reading into this as some kind of weird nonstandard buddy interaction won't go anywhere.

D. Godawful point. I'll lay it out here: If Scumpede thought you were hider, he's not gonna try to lynch you. Trying to lynch you would force you to claim and then get you not-lynched. It's like you have no idea how scum actually deal with PRs. If Scumpede thinks you're hider, he's just gonna shoot the guy you're hiding behind (Creature). And if they're BOTH scum, okay, MAYBE. But then we should be flipping Creature.

E. From what I say, the self-confidence thing is ENTIRELY the case. His meta is fencesitting like everyone, weighing "well, would town say this?" and "would scum say this?" He's not a SUPER pushy player and he regularly flip-flops without actually explaining to everyone why. If anything,

this is town-indicative

, as scum should be more interested in maintaining a clear and simple and easy-to-follow trajectory. The main reason I'm not outright townreading him for this behaviour is because Impede knows that I know his meta, and might be playing like this on purpose.

He also tries to claim towncred for his fencesitting when he's town, which is laughable, but also makes that kind of thing NAI.

You're deeeeep in tunnel mode. You looked at his posts in isolation and not context to the extent that literally the majority of your points are flat-out wrong.

Follow-up post in a second.

[Mathdino]

Scum's goal is to divide and conquer town. I have a few obv-townies in my townbloc already. Townblocs that form organically are more often brought down by scum generating paranoia within that bloc than by scum infiltrating it.

Impede is a good player when given enough material/time to reconsider his reads. If he's shittier by D2 than I expect from him, we'll take another look (we can also take a look if associations point to him). But as it is,

lynching Impede will be anti-town

. His flip, to me, is completely non-indicative of RedFlavor and Creature. If he flips green, it's anyone's guess what mafia would do in the situation that we have a good policy-esque lynch going and suddenly the most townread players start going after a mostly nullread player that actually contributes. I don't want to do VCA on a townpede flip.

Hold off on Impede for now.

And yes, I'm more willing to defend players I think are unfairly scumread than start scumcasing players I scumread. We have like 5 days to the deadline and these slapfights aren't helping bring us to a helpful lynch.

PEdit: Dude I'm quoting A50, who do you think it's directed at?
Also PLEASE snip out the quote walls when you quote something massive.

[Mathdino]

can we just not wall in general

The case on Impede was wrong. I'm factchecking it. I'm afraid that a few players (cough you, and me earlier) are just skimming well-written cases and being swayed.

If you wanna go that route, trust this tl;dr:

1. The case took a bunch of things out of context
2. A lot of things that make Impede scummy are actually just playstyle, and I can confirm this
3. Impede gets much better and much more readable on D2

Therefore Impede is a bad lynch and we should lynch Creature instead.

Check the votecount and L-1 or declare "intent as of Assemble's replacement showing up".

[Mathdino]

Yeah tbh I tuned all that out and filed it under "weird defence". You also have this tendency of immediately going after people scumreading you because they should already know your playstyle or what Scumpede and Townpede would do. They don't. I happen to.

I agree with you, but I also want a claim out of Creature ASAP so we have enough time to re-organise a lynch. No way I'm ending today with a No Lynch.

My lynch order in case of emergency (which is basically my reads list backwards):
Creature
Assemblerotwslot
RedFlavor (I have not seen a convincing defence of him, and I get the feeling his flip will be more useful than he is)
Kop
sheep
:::Not lynching below here but
fitz
Impede
Una
A50
Hawk
momo
Jay

[Mathdino]

@Jay: You should take it as a compliment that I stayed up to make fun of the way you talk. You should think about the consequence of your survivor strat bein a little too strong. And I got a scumread, he's more suspicious. He's lurkin the thread, doin I don't know what. You're the vig, it makes me hate you so much (

I hate you so much

).

@sheep: Not a hammer. Double vote. He's at L-1.

[Mathdino]

S-K or Drive...
Vengeful or Hide...
You've ruined my life.
Cuz you just won't diii-iii-iiie (ding)

You're SUSPICIOUS
I can't say anything to your face
Not even my case
And I'm so FURIOUS
At you for makin me feel this way
But what can I say?
SUSPICIOUS

[Mathdino]

You should take it as a compliment
That I'm talkin to everyone here but you
And you should think about the consequence
Of you vigging my ass in a darkened room
If you got a scum role, I'm jealous of yours
But if you're a PR, that's honestly worse
Cuz you're so suspicious,

it actually hurts

(honey, it hurts)

[Mathdino]

Elsa's blue eyes
Lookin in mine
I feel like I might
Lynch and make her diii-iii-iiie

You're SUSPICIOUS
I can't say anything to your face
Not even my case
And I'm so FURIOUS
At you for makin me feel this way
But what can I say?
SUSPICIOUS

PEdit: (don't think so, I just want a claim)

[Mathdino]

You make me so angry, you're like the grinch
There's nothin I hate more than what I can't lynch
And you're so suspicious it makes me flinch
You're suspicious

You make me so angry, you're like the grinch
There's nothin I hate more than what I can't lynch
And you're so suspicious it makes me flinch

You're suspicious

To be clear to everyone, absolutely nothing on this page is intended as a breadcrumb in any way and you should speedlynch me if I try to refer to any of my lyrics as actual substance

[Mathdino]

Hey congrats!

Jay, I think it would be good for the sake of the hider stuff for you to give a pool of 2-3 people that you intend to shoot (assuming we lynch Creature) so we can reorganise hiders so they don't accidentally get shot by you.

[Mathdino]

Also helps the JK not protect someone getting shot by you (as this would de-confirm you).

Can you give a definite list of 2 or 3 targets? (while being as WIFOMy as possible, you have no responsibility to actually justify your reads)

I'll pull up the hypohider list so we can reorganise once you do so.

UNVOTE:
Consider my vote still on Creature for the purposes of end-of-day lynching him.

[Mathdino]

You cherry picked the "good point" from my post xD. The important part was that townblocs fail more often due to town paranoia than due to scum infiltration. You're right that I'm appeasing everyone. You'll notice so far that unless I have a problem with someone's play (policy territory), I'm trying to be diplomatic. This is because I feel that town unity is extremely important D1 and D2, and people bickering over lynches that won't or shouldn't happen is harmful to that. It's why I always mark quotes of your posts with "For the record, this guy is wrong, but I'm not questioning his alignment". I don't want you to think I'm going after you, and I don't want to accidentally/unnecessarily bait others into doing so. So yeah, I do have reason to do all this.

Again, this is a case of you trying to point things about my playstyle that I could've already told you, or that you could've realised from meta. You "speculate" (really just reading the obvious) before you ask questions of me. This sort of behaviour is part of why you haven't been too convincing. There's also the matter that your reads are super self-centred and seemingly primarily based around others' interactions with you.

We'll deal with A50 tomorrow, as I've said numerous times, every single time you've brought up the A50 lynch idea. It's insane to think you're more likely to lynch the guy D1 than D2.

But if you wanna just talk about A50 preemptively, I'm entirely game (CRAZY IDEA: You can talk about your scumreads with other people even when you're not trying to lynch them!).

@Una/Impede:

Explain scum-A50's push on Una/Impede, which was filled with holes. Do you believe he genuinely tunneled into those mistakes?

[Mathdino]

@Math I understand you are clearing him as a town read because his general play is consistent with his town meta, from previous games. However I am not willing to give him a pass simply because we don't have a scum meta that others can divulge into. He could simply be playing to his town meta when he could easily be scum.

This is one of my sole reasons I don't tend to use meta to get a read on someone, I'd rather get my reads from how they are playing in this game, rather than previous games. People evolve, and they gain more experience on how to play this game. You could easily be duped into believing he is playing his town game.

You're completely misunderstanding me. Have I done the meta speech this game yet?

I don't use meta to OBTAIN reads on people. I use meta to NULLIFY reads on people.

That seems kinda bad, but having bad reads is also kinda bad, so it cancels out. Basically, if I see someone having a particular telling behaviour (and I'm scumreading them for that behaviour) I'll ask myself if there's the possibility that either town or scum could do that shit. I meta them. If that behaviour is not typical for them across games, then it's specific to this game, and I'll nail them as either town or scum. If that behaviour IS consistent across games, then I can tell myself I should not be reading them for that behaviour.

Meta and rebutting A50's case on Impede nullified Impede for me. The slight townread comes from a couple other things that I fundamentally believe only comes from town, and are things that he'd have to actively fake in order for it to come from scum. Not having seen his scum meta, I agree I could be duped. That's why it's null-town and not town.

Either way, this is a bad lynch today.

Edit: Sharing the Excel file is anti-town. Don't.

[Mathdino]

Ok I'm a bit of a hypocrite cuz I started singing at Jay yesterday but please don't clog up the thread with non-game related stuff while we're waiting for a replacement. It makes it harder for them to catch up.

[Mathdino]

Well they'll have to guess which of the two/three I'm gonna shoot if that's the case. And I'm good at rock-paper-scissors so I think I'll win.

This is the point of the shooting pool, yes.

[Mathdino]

Kop seems to have Vote parked on impede.
Why? What makes them for sure scum and more so than anyone else?

If you're uninterested in fully catching up (I understand), I recommend the strategy of first reading the first few pages and then reading the last 7 or so pages.
If you do this (I think on page 30), you'll see a huge back-and-forth argument about Impede that results in a shitty defence by him, a shitty case on him by A50, and scumcase on him followed by an awesome defence of him by me. No bias whatsoever

Go read something in context. ISOs are gonna be pretty bad for anything but tone.

screen is town at first glance

This is a bad read.

I’m glancing through some iso’s

Iffy on momo or a50

A50 had a post where they called momo out for slipping but I never noticed a vote.

momo did this thing where he tried to catch Jay scumslipping on Page 16-17. Obv Jay ended up being vig, but it's currently the consensus that momo couldn't or wouldn't fake this kind of behaviour as scum. Go read those pages for yourself to see that interaction.

Feel free to catch up at your own pace.

I object to this, as we have literally 4 days until the deadline.

VOTE: Creature

Please someone L-1 him so we can get intent and a claim.

[Mathdino]

That’s how I get my feels and reads.
It’s from gut/tone.
When something pings me I can go back and figure out why.

I'm not a fan of this. Gut/tone are more often wrong than right. It's really easy as scum to hide behind gutreads.

Jay is the SK, that’s why he has a survivor wincon. Game solved. Great effort. Let’s go home guys

If any one knows that there is an sk it would be scum, right?

No, scum has no idea whether or not there's an SK. There's a 1/2 chance of there being one. Mafia team's setup is non-indicative of SK existence.

Edit: momo doesn't pay attention to a lot of things. 5 of us double voted the same guy. It was pretty convincing to a couple people.

[Mathdino]

We have beef, lol.

Dino said beforehand that he did it to get discussion going. And while I can't say I truly know Math's playing style, he really doesn't like just gut reads and the thread going out of left field, even though on multiple occasions he contributes to that.

And if you live till day 2 and he has important info, he'll hold it back for a 'reaction test'. You gotta confront him to get anything useful out of him.

1. Gut reads are a temporary substitute for real reads. I use them at the beginning of the game if I don't see anything particularly stand-out. And I firmly believe in quality shitposting if shitposting is to happen at all.

2. Okay but that's just good play. The space between L-1ing someone and hammering them is ALSO the space for outing any important info that anyone has. If, for example, I have a cop guilty on someone, it's not helpful for me to just out that info because that puts us in a bad situation the next day. Voting the guilty person is NAI.
On the other hand, if I hold it back and play with the person I know is scum (and see how other people react), only to out the guilty later, I can get a lot of good reactions and associative tells.
And lol at needing to confront me to get something useful. You're literally commenting on my Innocent Child play. Of course Innocent Child shouldn't be super forthcoming with their reads.

Edit: Bad vote, bro. Read the last few pages. You're tonereading explicitly NAI behaviour.

[Mathdino]

It's interesting to me that anyone who reads Impede's ISO immediately starts scumreading him, while anyone who actually pores over Impede in context nullreads him.

[Mathdino]

Point is, Math will very carefully put his words out because he always puts logic and numbers first. He's more... Neutral in that regard then pure town. That makes me always think he could also be scum, but for now I'm keeping my slight town read on him.

This is actually a very accurate take on my meta, and is how I view myself. Makes me wonder if you've read me outside the game we played together.

Iirc someone said creature is not giving anything but impede is.
How the does creature become a better lynch with lack of information?

Creature is generally useless, lurky, and doesn't believe in giving townreads. That said, he's still given scumreads and has had behaviour we can analyse.

More importantly, we can analyse the behaviour around Creature's wagon, which I think is much more interesting than the Impede wagon.

Also Impede becomes a better town-player as he goes on, and is thus a worse lynch because he's a higher utility player (and easier to read).

[Mathdino]

His flailing about is what he does as town already. Flailing is not a scumtell. For a select few players, flailing is different between their town and scumgames, but that's about it.

As a very general tell (that applies to more than just Impede), scum tend to have a more simple/consistent narrative and trajectory. They get a scumread, they follow up on it, they keep at it, and when they change their mind, it's because of specific reasons. Scum tends not to wildly throw out around reads, forget about them, forget why they changed their reads, or do incomprehensible things while appearing otherwise levelheaded (unless incomprehensibility is their playstyle).

This is because scum knows they'll be questioned on crazy shifts, and scum doesn't want the spotlight on them unless they know their defence will work.

Impede is absolute shit at defending himself, and he knows he's bad at this because his entire meta is full of getting questioned and then getting scummier and scummier as he responds and defends. He also knows that he gets scumread often for changing his mind, backtracking, and doing generally weird things without explaining why.

So in order for him to be scum, he'd have to fully know that his town meta is commonly seen as scummy, know that the way he defends himself is scummy, and then behave that way anyway even if it has a HIGHHH chance of getting himself lynched.

Since I'm apparently the only player that knows his meta, he'd have to trust that specifically Mathdino will come along and present this exact argument to prevent that lynch. Which would be a massive fucking stretch to expect me to defend him this hard.

I've changed my mind. I've argued myself into definitely thinking Impede is town.

[Mathdino]

He's referring to a recently completed micro.

Basically, scum marks a player for death every night and that player dies at the end of the next day. Since only one player can be marked, claiming being marked confirms you as town to some extent.

So this troll player Not_Mafia claims marked at the beginning of D2 when I was actually marked. So I played along, confirmed 2 players as town (to myself) by reaction testing them, then counter-claimed marked (N_M claimed he was also reaction testing them). Said I was gonna roll back and let the game play itself out so I wouldn't interfere too much with anyone's trajectory as IC.

Well they ended up speedlynching a lurker who was gonna get replaced without my vote at all, which then instantly killed me (on day-end).

And Jay thinks I should've claimed earlier so that lynch wouldn't happen.

[Mathdino]

At the time, the issue wasn't your willingness to believe me. You were already primed to think that I would be marked instead of N_M.

When it comes to the cop claim, obviously if I claimed cop-with-a-guilty while I'm at L-1, that's shitty. We have breadcrumbs for exactly that reason; it doesn't look like people just made shit up on the spot.

[Mathdino]

We do have enough votes for a Creature lynch right?

He's at L-2 right now. sheep will probably vote him again. Who's here to declare intent?

Creature you're better off claiming now. If you're a PR we NEED the time to reorganise

.

[Mathdino]

Creature flipping green will turn me to Impede, just for the record.

Before this you are saying you are not ok with their lynch but you leave the door open to lynch the if creature flips green.
Feels a little disingenuous

i no longer agree with that statement, i'll be relatively un-okay with lynching impede tomorrow unless he starts acting scummy

at the time though i was mostly arguing with whoever suggested that impede/creature are scum together, and i was being like "no that sounds wrong, impedescum is consistent with creaturetown"

Edit: congrats you found my "nullreading then scumreading with the consensus then townreading upon actual analysis" behaviour

[Mathdino]

You're hilarious, dude. On the bright side, sheep and A50 mean we can still get a lynch without you.

His case being wrong and out of context: I'm townreading A50 for that. If you actually read my ISO and a couple of my walls, you'd see why. You think I should just vote anyone I think is wrong? That's surface level scumhunting. Hilariously, that's what you're doing.

Role-fishing: You weren't here the whole game, so I'll give you a pass on not understanding the context behind my panic. There are a few wagons that have been very difficult to get off the ground, and there are quite a few people that literally only have one person scumreading them. Creature is, at this stage, the only lynch we can actually achieve (I will admit part of this is due to me blocking off the Impede lynch). So if he's a PR, we need to know absolutely now so that we have time in the 3 days remaining to get a lynch. Unless you think we should just hammer him without a claim?

I don't know whether I can townread you or scumread you for this, because I don't know the depth to which you've actually gone and read the game. I'll leave this one to other players.

[Mathdino]

I'm a shitty tonereader; I read based on motivation and general psychology. My read on his motivation is fundamentally based on exactly how much reading he's done, and now that I've said that, Srcumplay would just lie about it.

I defer to people who are provably good tonereaders/gutreaders and people who've played with him before.

@momo:

I was bored and reading mafia games, came across the end of Surreptitious Mafia. Everyone suggested Creature was the town MVP and had amazing reads, but badly communicated them.
Do you feel like this is our highest utility lynch? (aka do you think his game will improve)
Do you think he's playing against his town meta?

[Mathdino]

You can follow along from the progression of my quotes to see how much I’ve read.

So you've read every page up to this point?

So how much more has creature given you to gain a read than I have?

Well, Creature's given us almost 40 pages of uselessness and total lack of reads.
You have 1 page of bad reads. I have hope for you yet

[Mathdino]

I'm getting cold feet on the Creature thing. This is half a compromise lynch. His reads are consistent with himself.

I'm beginning to think others (Kop, fitz) are more likely to flip scum but this is still the highest utility.

I think it's important that Creature claim and push someone.

[Mathdino]

sheep's out of the townblock because reasons. A50 is lowkey in it. So is Hawk. Una is controversially in it. fitz was in it but hasn't been around.

[Mathdino]

momo @ Jay

Creature @ Hawk
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Assemblerotws @ UnaBombaH
Kop @ Almost50
Almost50 @ Creature
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop

havingfitz @ RedFlavor

Impede @ momo

Mathdino @ havingfitz

Highlighted players need to find new hypohider targets. momo can optionally choose a different one.

If we lynch Creature, A50 is hiding behind Hawk.

Edit: Dude he's scumreading me and sheep lol

[Mathdino]

momo @ Srceenplay
Creature @ Hawk
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Srceenplay @ UnaBombaH
Kop @ Almost50
Almost50 @ Creature
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop
havingfitz @ ------
Impede @ ------
Mathdino @ Jay

[Mathdino]

Creature please link a towngame where you similarly lost inspiration and played like you did here.

Also you have no scumreads. You have almost all townreads and then a couple nullreads on the people that the rest of us already consider suspicious.

[Mathdino]

Jay, do you have different lists for whether Creature flips scum or town? Might be helpful to post them so we can create both hider scenarios.

@momo: I'm townreading everyone on the wagon. If he's scum I'd expect more bussing in this situation.

[Mathdino]

@Jay: Cool. Don't specify further who you're going to shoot in either case.

Remember that momo could be scum getting towncred off of a scum lynch, OR could be scum pushing a mislynch.
Remember that RedFlavor's scummy regardless of Creature's flip.
Remember that fitz... well idk why you're shooting fitz but I'm sure it's independent of Creature.

I'm not encouraging you to shoot momo obviously or think momo is scum, just trying to WIFOM your shot.

I'd recommend not commenting on any of the 3 from now on (everyone else, fair game).

[Mathdino]

Creature, please link posts from that game where you make it clear that you'd lost inspiration in that game.

As potentially the only player willing to go through pages of meta, I'm not seeing it initially.

And claim.

[Mathdino]

RedFlavor lynch is my ideal counterwagon, followed by Screenplay (I feel bad because he's new but his slot is scummy and his reads are backasswards), followed by Kop (a higher info lynch because he's actually been here).

[Mathdino]

I don't see a reason why I should claim now when I can still hold this info from scum.

Oh screw you. You're getting hammered when A50 is online. At least do us the favour of claiming so we have a little more time to reorganise hiders.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Creature

[Mathdino]

It's interesting to me that anyone who reads Impede's ISO immediately starts scumreading him, while anyone who actually pores over Impede in context nullreads him.

This is interesting to me as well. I didn’t think I sound scummy in general, but I always get scumread by lazy players.

Maybe it would make you reconsider your reads being based on how people interact with you?

[Mathdino]

WTF

[Mathdino]

i was just about to say i've lost interest in this so ring me up when creature gets back and claims
but jesus christ, whatever i guess

gonna spend twilight responding a few things

[Mathdino]

momo @ Screenplay
Creature @ Hawk
RedFlavor @ sheepsaysmeep
sheepsaysmeep @ Impede
Screenplay @ UnaBombaH
Kop @ Almost50
Almost50 @ Creature
UnaBombaH @ Mathdino
Hawk @ Kop
havingfitz @ ----------
Impede @ Almost50
Mathdino @ Jay

havingfitz

, if you see this, please hypohide behind Jay with me. My hope is that it'll both test for SK and WIFOM the mafia in terms of how they'll deal with him.

If anyone disagrees with this, say something soon.

[Mathdino]

oh shit and Almost50 @ Hawk

[Mathdino]

actually everything i had to say was based around the idea that Creature might not get lynched

whelp

reads in twilight are anti-town because they inform the NK so bye felicia

[Mathdino]

oh fucking shit when i got a pm i was convinced i was dead

[Mathdino]

God, Jay is such a fucking VI. That is not okay on so many levels. And postgame he's gonna be all "WELL MATH LIED AS TOWN IN OUR GAME, SO I CAN DO IT TOO".

No, dipshit, I lied as a town PR and pretended I was a VT to gain reactions.

You do NOT lie as a VT and claim town PR.

Jackass. Also fucked up our hider strategy.

[Mathdino]

Creature (7) -

JaydragonKing

, Hawk, Impede, momo, Mathdino,

Almost50

, RedFlavor

[Lynch]

Impede (2) -

Kop, havingfitz

Almost50

(1) -

UnabombaH

Mathdino (1) -

Srceenplay

RedFlavor (1)-

Creature

Not voting

- sheepsaysmeep

k good. Mod fixed the VC. Coloured and I left myself out so you guys can go to paranoia town if you so desire.

D1 mafia lynch heavily implies bussing. The town was too coordinated on that. Cohesive. My fear is that cohesion will break today resulting in repeated mislynches. A50 kill helps with that.

On the wagon:

Hawk was an early joiner. Seems town. Impede is town. momo is def town. I'm town. RedFlavor is the obvious busser here.

Off the wagon:

Well this is more complicated.
Screenplay came up with some ludicrous reason to join a wagon that for sure wouldn't happen, 4 days before the deadline. I'm obviously biased since it was me, but regardless of who it was, this is suspicious.
The entire Impede wagon feels opportunistic. Kop and fitz haven't given us anywhere near enough material to reliably townread them. Kop in particular tried to argue (not shout, just persuade) us into not lynching Creature because it's low-info. Bad reason.
Una I'm pretty sure is town, despite A50's paranoid-ass reasoning (that I'm guessing gave him away as a PR) that Una somehow started believing he was a PR and decided to try to lynch A50 (WHY NOT JUST KILL HIM).

Oh yeah and if anyone is a vig and wants to claim the Jay kill, please say so now. Cuz that wasn't me.

Suspects: RedFlavor, Srceenplay, Kop, fitz.

VOTE: RedFlavor
But like it's probably this guy tbh

Edit: haven't read the past 3 posts

[Mathdino]

Almost 50 getting shot is unfortunate...

So we have an SK or does a real Vig want to claim one of those shots? Dino being alive is slightly unexpected as well but I suppose maybe Scum was worried about protectives.

Pedit: how did it mess up our hider strat?? Sorry I'm not great at setup strats. And don't get why it messed it up.

[sarcasm]O shit this guy commenting on the NK means he's scum[/sarcasm]

Wouldn't be surprised if vig. Not me. Yeah I honestly didn't prepare at all for today in writing (I was going to) cuz I was afraid of getting shot. But then I was like "okay but I'm the obvious JK target" and have been reading today.

If Hider hides behind someone who's NK'd, the Hider dies as well. Jay claiming vig meant that Hiders had to scramble their targets so they didn't hide behind someone Jay shoots.

I dont understand your anger against jay
Also should we make hider targets again

Let's not. It's too early. We should see if there's a vig first.

[Mathdino]

Kop, fitz, Impede and I are all confirmed Not Hider (assuming fitz as hider would've followed my request) because we hypothetically hid behind people who died. Thus we're exempt from hider hypoclaiming.

[Mathdino]

@sheep: No. Vig would never ever kill someone other than the guy claiming his role. If vig held back and just shot Jay for lying, that was a smart move. Killing someone else would be ridiculous and the only person I can think of who'd vig A50 is Unabomba.

@Hawk: That actually seems like exactly what scum would do. RedFlavor was my immediate gut scumread when I saw the flip.

A50 had no info. What are you looking to gain from a crumb?

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah I forgot, sheep is also a suspect. Counts as somewhat of a "on the wagon". The way he's acted around the Creature lynch has been weird.

Also stop pagetopping, this game is long enough for a mini. Finding replacements is gonna be ridiculous.

Edit: I wouldn't worry too much about it. Once everyone else gets here we'll know if that was a vig shot.

[Mathdino]

I assume your theory is that I killed A50 to clear myself because everyone paired me with him?

Can you explain your case on me within the context of the flips?

[Mathdino]

I can see that. I've been playing chat mafia since nightfall to get my mafia fix so I've been stylistically shifting much further toward stream-of-consciousness instead of crafting paragraphs.

Every post I've made since the hammer has been pretty much spitting out sentences as fast as I can so I can get in on the discussion.

Although now I'm self-conscious of it. Fuck.

Outside of that, I can't really respond to tonereads, but I'll certainly respond to motivation reads or questioning of my logic/reasoning. Srceenplay not adapting his reads to the new information is hugely concerning. I'm holding out hope he's just VI. RedFlavor has many more pages of bad play.

[Mathdino]

screen catches up like i do as town
he also has quite a few original thoughts
tr'ing him

i dont fall under good tone/gut readers tho

[Mathdino]

VC 1.17

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Creature (4) -

JaydragonKing, RedFlavor, momo, Almost50

Assemblerotws (3) -

Mathdino, Impede, Hawk

Impede (2) -

Kop, havingfitz

JaydragonKing (1) -

Assemblerotws

Almost50 (1) -

UnabombaH

RedFlavor (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Not voting

- Creature

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-01-12 08:00:00)

I'm willing to bet, based on the trajectory of the day, that bussing isn't going on here.

That indicates to me that there's scum in {Assemble, Impede, Hawk}, scum in {Creature, RedFlavor, A50}, and then a final scum that's been in our townbloc the whole time. Probably someone in {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una}.

Wait okay I'm wrong. RedFlavor has been on Creature for a while when he could easily have been on Assembleslot or Impede.

Redbus doesn't make sense. I want to hear momo's input for why that's his current theory.

Until then,
uh idk i'm split between sheep and Kop tbh
VOTE: Kop
at least sheep is here

also anyone who has arguments on Impede should reiterate why they make sense. Because Impede was very obviously the counterwagon to Creature.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Impede

This is a wagon outside of Jay/red that I'd like to take off. I don't necessarily scum read Jay, but I just feel he's being hard pressed into a mislynch, I just don't think scum would be that stupid to focus all of the attention onto themselves in the manner he has done since gamestart. I obviously wouldn't like to think that we could possibly go into LYLO with him but I'm wanting to go into different areas rather than focus on him for days on end.

Impede on the other hand, has given me nothing to note that I could town read him for, and I do like the case Fitz has put out against Impede. Last few pages that I have been reading, his name was popping out quite a bit. His vote on Jay doesn't make any sense to me at all, I wouldn't call it opportunistic, it felt more of a let go vote. If this wagon takes off and Impede flips scum, I would 100% go back for Jay because of how that vote felt to me.

Another point I didn't quite work out, he stated that he would hide behind Momo, why would you hide behind Momo considering he had him in his town read in post #152? Why would you not hide behind Fitz, or Una who you were scum reading? I understand hiding behind your town reads would give you a better chance of living, but also confirming your reads, doesn't give anything to gamestate because you don't really confirm anything, because you could be scum lying about being the hider and the hider might not even be in the game.

@Jay, Creature is null for me. I've played with Creature a few times, and in most of them, he wasn't entirely active so it's hard for me to get a lock on read on him. It's 50/50 if I was to vote for him to be the next lynch. Unless he shows me a sign that he is scum, I will act upon it.

I understand you have your sights set on Jay, and I do agree with you with what you are saying, but personally I'd rather go for someone who can give us more information going into day two so we can get a stronger read on others, I feel lynching Jay on day one, isn't going to give us anything and reads won't be as strong as they would by lynching someone who gives us more. Jay will never be shot, so that is going to obviously be in the back of everyones mind and someone we don't want in LYLO, but he can easily be done on day 2 or 3 if we aren't further forward in lynching scum.

Your vote on Creature is an attempt to take attention of yourself, it isn't that hard to see. You only paid attention to Creature and voted for him because Math was putting you in the situation that was tying you to Creature, so in aid for that to be dissolved, it was then that you started to put your focus on Creature, also this was when attention was turning onto you (also note that Impede was slightly behind Creature in the votes). Pushing the creature wagon closer to the lynch may help you in time because people may think with Creature being closer to the lynch than you, they may opt to go to the biggest thing going, creature.

Your play doesn't tell me that you are actively trying to locate scum, it is showing me that you are just simply going with what others are echoing and your reasons for doing so are weak. I will hold my hands up if you flip green and say that I am wrong, but from what I'm seeing, I don't have high confidence that your town.

I'm voting Kop because this shit almost worked. Not PoE at all.

[Mathdino]

if you care about a lonely middle school boy going through serious depression because of jay's snipe and he cant afford mental health services and you have a heart hit me up for a hydra for lucky2u's micro upick
also that depressed boy's grades are dropping exponentially because of his online porn addiction
he's forgotten how to live life
someone who's not the one who made me go through this

Like this one?

im psure creature plays like this at as either alignment with these popins and popouts
i dont recall his popins being wolfy popins; im more in favor of red or assemble lynches

Or this super scummy post?

[Mathdino]

Also, in a very friendly way, screw you A50 for thinking that Jay breadcrumbed vig at all.

Or screw Jay for breadcrumbing vig as a VT in the first place?

Upon reflection (and I'm just assuming vig doesn't exist now because they didn't cc Jay), the most likely scenario is that mafia killed Jay and SK killed A50. Reason being that SK has a 1-shot BP and vig hanging around is much more likely to hurt mafia. Mafia on the other hand is actively afraid of vig. Especially after we have him leashed.

Also doctor doesn't exist because doctor would be on Jay. I might write up a few calculations on the mafia team distribution as a result of that. My hope is that Tracker is our only PR so we only have 1 more mafia to catch.

The most obvious culprit of A50's kill would be Una. I would be willing to examine Una's play from the perspective of SK hunting. Not yet but later. For now, my townread stands.

The second most obvious A50 killer would honestly be me, because A50's flip would stop people suggesting Math/A50, and it would leave me as one of few town leader types left.

So then it stands to reason that, because I believe Una and I are both town, the SK did the kill either
A. To frame one of us.
or
B. Because they were afraid of A50 later on.
or
C. Both.

I'm beginning to realise why I hate NKA. I'll analyse A50's ISO for signs at some point.

I did look for a breadcrumb in A50's ISO and I found nothing. One of these days I'm going to start looking out for that as town. If anyone finds a breadcrumb, my entire NKA is bunk.

[Mathdino]

Also, as a preemptive to claims that I'm SK being all cheeky with the "WELL WHAT IF HE'S SK SUGGESTING HE'S SK", I just wanna shut that down and say:

I'm not playing like an SK. I'm playing in a way that gets me shot all the time. Because of this playstyle, I've never made it to a mini LyLo as town (only ever made it in micros, and scum only needs 2 shots to get to LyLo). I'm townread by everyone except like 3 and I think I'm the most active player in the game. That's practically asking to either get JK'd or shot.

This argument doesn't apply to the possibility of me being mafia, obviously, as potential mafia-me doesn't know whether or not SK exists.

[Mathdino]

What? No. Is everyone playing lazy?

At the very least Una and Hawk's total ignorance implies town because they'd have had time to talk about this last night.

We agreed that regardless of who we lynch, we'd "close the loop". That is, whoever claims they'll hide behind Creature will instead hide behind Creature's target.

Creature claimed he'd hide behind Hawk so that means A50 should've hid behind Hawk. He made a post earlier indicating that he completely understood this and I made a post directing all the hiders in twilight. I see absolutely no reason to believe he'd diverge from his plan.

So either BOTH scum didn't realise this or talk about it at night, or Una/Hawk are both town.

[Mathdino]

okay that also clears fitz

the question is do i believe that both mafia would be this lazy in their PR hunting

i'm amazing at PR hunting so i know i wouldn't but i legit don't know what people do as mafia without me

hmmmmmmmm

Okay so if I include all 3 of you in my townbloc that makes {me, Una, Hawk, fitz, momo} with outside nulltowner {Impede}. Creates a lynchpool of 4. {Kop, sheep, Screen, RedFlavor}.

Not satisfactory yet but this is actually a great start.

If anyone thinks that BOTH mafia are in {Una, Hawk, fitz} please say something

[Mathdino]

momo (ongoing)
fitz (ongoing)
UnaBombah (ongoing and not at the same time)
sheep (i replaced him + ongoing)
A50 (ongoing and I will talk about this one later)
Kop (ongoing)
Impede (ongoing)
RedFlavor (ongoing)

i guess you could say that, yeah
no completeds tho

[Mathdino]

oh wait yeah jay was the only one who's played with me in a completed game before

but also jay knows nothing about my meta and thinks that my town meta is to lie and do nothing because he lynched a guy while i was still coming up with reads as innocent child

[Mathdino]

Dumb. Dumb af.

Math may as well be conftown

. What’s your case?

WAIT NOPE DONT DO THIS TO ME DUDE I DONT WANNA GET PARANOID ABOUT YOU

explain this

if it's literally just because you townread me that doesn't make me conftown

also give me a scumteam

Edit: are you rolefishing me now what

[Mathdino]

VC 1.17

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Creature (4) -

JaydragonKing, RedFlavor, momo, Almost50

Assemblerotws (3) -

Mathdino, Impede, Hawk

Impede (2) -

Kop, havingfitz

JaydragonKing (1) -

Assemblerotws

Almost50 (1) -

UnabombaH

RedFlavor (1) -

sheepsaysmeep

Not voting

- Creature

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-01-12 08:00:00)

I'm willing to bet, based on the trajectory of the day, that bussing isn't going on here.

That indicates to me that there's scum in {Assemble, Impede, Hawk}, scum in {Creature, RedFlavor, A50}, and then a final scum that's been in our townbloc the whole time. Probably someone in {Impede, Kop, fitz, Una}.

oh yeah and highkey though this probably still holds weight

caught the scum in {Creature, Red, A50} and i await momo's explanation for why CREATURE AND REDFLAVOR ARE DEFINITELY SCUM TOGETHER

but like, it's probably kop and screenplay honestly

can we get more kop votes pls

[Mathdino]

Fitz is probably actually town. If you still want me to explain why he could be scum (or why I'm pretty sure scum's in {Kop, fitz}) lemme know.

Found this last night and this is a major pointer because I think I've found something that Creature wouldn't do intentionally. His apathy makes it unlikely to me that he was putting much effort into distancing.

3- According to you, you have been working by PoE. Who do you still have in your lynch pool after removing your Town leans?

I agree with the townblock besides Hawk, so that leaves RedFlavor, Assemble, Kop, you, UnaBombaH and Impede. I'd probably remove Impede by myself.

momo town
Creature town
RedFlavor can be lynched
sheepsaysmeep town
Srceenplay town I guess

Kop null

Almost50 paranoid of
UnaBombaH seemed town
Hawk I remember not liking
havingfitz I remember townreading, but not sure now
Impede I haven't decided yet
Mathdino town
JaydragonKing town obviously

this is very clearly horrible, Kop is his ONLY nullread but is also in his lynchpool

anyway that's the only mention of Kop in creature's ISO but i'll get to Kop himself in a sec

[Mathdino]

pagetop

Dude, you really need to stop.

@Mod: Request action on sheep spamposting.

I'd say it's anti-town but it's anti-everyone by making harder to catch up.

[Mathdino]

Impede, you're probably town, but ya gotta answer my question last page before you go off into policy lynch territory.

D2 post-flip policy lynch is a bad idea. He's in my lynchpool because I think he's the token Creature-busser. But I haven't even delved into that yet. If you think he's scum, you're welcome to do so.

I was just about to ask what you thought of my Kop case but then I realised I forgot to do the Kop case. I'll do that today.

Edit: I specifically asked all K roles to claim just in case that was the lineup. It's incredibly unlikely though. Like you have no idea how unlikely.

[Mathdino]

On a sidenote, town has either 1, 3, or 5 power roles remaining (assuming vig is Fake News). This will be useful for later claims I think.

Edit: as someone who also likes policy lynches A LOT they almost always hit town. the point of a policy lynch is that you're okay with that

[Mathdino]

Guys, assemble saw things not going well for him and his scum buddy creature...replaced out based on time constraints

He just /inned for another game

Clear tactical replace out, condemning the slot as scum

This is unfair to comment on and I think is lowkey against the rules.

The rest of your case I agree with though. I just don't want to use replacements against someone.

I'll push my wagon you push yours. Let's see where they go.

[Mathdino]

Impede you literally make the same exact kinds of arguments as to why you're not scum, kindly fuck off

I have no motivation to do the Kopcase tbh. His ISO is so minimal. It's in another tab and I might polish it later. It's really just a lolcase at this point.

Edit: So sheep is your token "guy who's cool with the Creature lynch". Do you believe both scum were into it, or that there was scum off it? Basically asking for a sheep partner.

Also upon flips and looking at the setup, it's more and more occurring to me that 2 mafia could actually be pretty likely. It's gonna depend on the remaining PRs.

[Mathdino]

Impede you literally make the same exact kinds of arguments as to why you're not scum, kindly fuck off

Yeah, but at least I say that they are WIFOM-laden and therefore invalid as of the moment I author them.

I mean yeah you do, but acknowledging the WIFOM doesn't make it any less WIFOMy. Either the argument works or it doesn't. Most "if I were scum" arguments are shit because people have no clue what they'd do as scum. The moment someone makes that kind of argument, they force you into the following possibilities:
1. Scum doing what they did would actually be idiotic/anti-scumwincon, or difficult to plan. Plus there's 0 evidence they've done that in the past.
2. Scum actually did plan it out or do a thing on purpose specifically for the towncred of it.
3. It's just wrong and the action isn't actually something scum wouldn't do.
4. The player is the kind of person that plays towngames and scumgames exactly the same on purpose, and so any scummy behaviour is actually null. (for example: I don't use math to gain an edge as scum. I use math in all games. Therefore both using math AND making math errors is null for me)

Anyway momo's case worked because it's ludicrous to think he and I planned that day out + there's no evidence either of us would do something that crazy without a plan (I have done things that crazy with plans, in fairness) + that kind of play is how to get JK'd + either of us flipping scum would fuck us.

"If I were scum" arguments work best when it takes an INSANE number of assumptions to think that the person had scum motivation behind an action.

[Mathdino]

I really don't want to do this, but I really want an answer on this...

Math, you like Math. I can easily calculate outcomes for a 7d100 as is used in this setup, but I have no idea how to adjust probabilities once you've ruled out certain combinations as being possible. Any ideas? I.e: The chance of us being in TT is normally 16.4% and TTT is 27.3%, but we know that TTT and TTTT are impossible now, so how do I adjust my probabilities for 0T, T, TT, TTTTT, and TTTTTT accordingly?

Happy to help! You're looking at something called Conditional Probability. People get conditional prob. wrong CONSTANTLY, and this is what leads to the answer to the Monty Hall Problem being so heavily doubted. Here's an analogy.

Let's say I tell you I flipped 3 coins. What's the chance of 3 heads in a row? It's pretty trivial to get the answer 1/8.

Then let's say I told you "Ah, Impede, I will tell you I flipped at least one head!". This now rules out all the possibilities in which I flipped tails. The new question:

Given that you know I flipped at least one head

, what is the chance that I flipped 3 heads?

We divide the number of good scenarios (3 heads) by the number of possible scenarios. Possible scenarios are: HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH, and we are not including TTT.

Perhaps counterintuitively, now that you have this knowledge, the chance of 3 heads now becomes 1/7.

If I told you I flipped at least 2 heads, you could similarly find the 4 scenarios HHH HHT HTH HTT, only one of which is desired, leaving a probability of 1/4.

Basically, you just get rid of the impossible scenarios from the denominator.

I kinda broke my promise on doing that math and I'm still procrastinating on the Kopcase (hard to care when he's not here tbh). I'll do the math first.

[Mathdino]

Dino I’ve explained I am trying to reread you and how. You just disregard it?

Yeah tbh it's kinda hard to care. Like, I've made a lot of content already. Making more content, while under scrutiny from you, shouldn't really significantly change your read on me. The problem is you're a replacement and you weren't there to see my progression in real time.

Like I wouldn't normally make a Kop case if you weren't asking me to, so it's kinda weird to do it now? And I have a hard time believing it'll convince you, and it'd really be more for convincing you I'm town. Like I'm just going through the motions. And once I'm doing something to convince someone I'm town, people should (justly) nullread me for that.

I'll get around to it cuz I said I would. Sorrynotsorry for not really giving a shit. My hope was that more players would've shown up by now so we could take a look at the wagons.