Open 889 | Secrets of the Anuket Topaz | fin.

[Prism]

It makes my blood pressure rise and makes me want to get a time machine, become principal of your primary school, and fire your childhood teachers, but I would prefer you explored it over randomly spitballing it.

[Prism]

It makes my blood pressure rise and makes me want to get a time machine, become principal of your primary school, and fire your childhood teachers, but I would prefer you explored it over randomly spitballing it.

This is a joke, to be clear, not a real insult.

[Prism]

Heads up that you should expect decreased activity from me over the weekend. I might use the game to procrastinate, but I've got a draft due for my first attempt at an academic piece so I expect my brain to be very overworked.

[Prism]

Can I ask why you have such a strong townread on me this game?

[Prism]

I've been trying to resist asking that question but I am way too curious this time

[Prism]

Splitting hairs but I don't think I was widely townread at that time. Basically everyone had me in null, and was either well-aware of my range or immediately perceptive of it.

Only today have player's reads mostly trended out of it.

[Prism]

This paragraph is one of the most important I will post all game.

The strongest indicator camel and It's interactions were +town actually dates back to camel's first push on T3. I immediately intervened, shut it down, and started pushing camel for it. This was his first attempt at a real push and hunting activity, and I immediately slammed the door on it and put him on the backfoot. This is very disadvantageous for me: I can easily get towncredit elsewhere essentially on demand, while camel is more inexperienced and would struggle.

In short, I totally shut down camel's first real active move and immediately put him on the backfoot, which would be setting up the team for failure as he is the weak link.

On a totally separate and more academic note, the interesting thing about camel's push on me is that it was an OMGUS completely lacking in substance, and this was probably intentional. He was very explicit about framing it as a 1v1 and playing up the idea it was a spat. This was probably intentional to deflect from the fact I had his number at two different points, first in his half-baked push on T3 and second when he accidentally admitted his own reason for pushing me was bad. He was not eager to fight it out on the merits.

When I later stayed dogged, he played into a more emotional exasperated angle to again lean both to appeal to me and deflect again as a 1v1 not worth reading.

[Prism]

I'm keen to look back and see who helped funnel today into me v Titus. And at camel interactions.

Any update on this?

[Prism]

I've spent some time thinking and reviewing.

I think camel's vote on imaginality was surprisingly sticky. Camel unvotes imaginality shortly after I renew my push on him.

I'm going to lean town on imaginality overall for it, but the opposite perspective would be that camel voted imaginality at the end after I forced him to take a stand, and therefore camel could not blitz imaginality and leave. This can mean that camel wasn't planning on escaping with an imaginality flip, but I think it's more likely that another scum might be waiting in the wings for it. Him asking for a revised votecount might also imply he wanted attention to shift away from imaginality, but this is a stretch.

[Prism]

I think camel's vote on imaginality was surprisingly sticky. Camel unvotes imaginality shortly after I renew my push on him.

I didn't finish this thought. I think this suggests that camel did not like the stagnation on the imaginality wagon and was concerned my push would cause it to flip to him. The opposite explanation would be that camel didn't want dueling scum wagons, but it's not intuitive that he would back off from a bussing vote instead of doubling down on it when he's getting scumread.

Overall, I think this points to imaginality town.

[Prism]

In contrast, I think I am growing more confident that Andres is scum.

First, I am still suspicious of the way camel continuously lumped gob and Andres together into one bucket. A collection of some interactions are below.

Spoiler: Quote collection

in fact can we wait until gob and andres get replacements

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

He unvotes the slot shortly after Andres posts.

this might be angleshooty but i think that both gob and andres wouldn't have waited this long to post as scum and therefore I'm good calling them both town for now

It’s possible Snivy knows gob is Town and is defending a slot that’ll flip in the hopes that no one will go after them tomorrow, but I don’t know how much I actually believe this take.

in that world i feel like i would say gob is town and then proceed to do nothing about it except to hang onto that read

This is the most substantive interaction he has with Andres.

i think gob, andres, shirou are all town and ydrasse + firebringer are in my probably town tier

also where is andres

for now i think shirou is my only townread, my tr on gob and andres is falling off and at the same time titus is just nulltown for me

speaking of which, {jjh927, std, andres, imaginality} are in my poe, i could compromise on {T3, Prism} but i dont think we'll get there

This was less than a minute. Why did you think gob was town? What changed?

my reasoning for townreading gob was pretty bad, it was just the inactivity + his progression on me that townread him. i think, aside from my prior jjh scumread that gob could be a partner. otherwise gob is kinda in my "willing to lim but not really" with andres

Was it literally just Shirou

firebringer ydrssse (and gob and andres i would arue too)

These quotes constantly treat Andres and gob as being two peas in a pod to put in the same pool, even as the nature and frequency of their posting are two different tales.

Importantly, he is angleshooting and making excuses to lump them both into a vague townpool.

I think this is an unusual and overbroad choice as scum, and I think the tactical choice is meaningful. I think he is making up an excuse to fit a partner into the townpool. This identical treatment continues even as gob gets more widely townread as an individual. This still leaves open the question of which of the two it is, and it is difficult to tell from camel's side. Some posts are openly WIFOM.

Second, I actually do not favor Andres individually upon review. I'm going to review a few different moments.

gob takes the cake for the Scummiest entrance I’ve seen in a while (and so many players agree!).

Also, jjh is Town. I’ll die on that hill.

It’s possible Snivy knows gob is Town and is defending a slot that’ll flip in the hopes that no one will go after them tomorrow, but I don’t know how much I actually believe this take.

This set of posts is interesting: the reason that everyone is scumreading gob is because we're wondering if gob is whiteknighting town, and Andres takes it a step further to wonder if camel is whiteknighting gob in turn. This isn't so different from my own criticism at the end of the day-which was that I just found the defense bizarre, despite camel being candidly half-hearted in it, but I'm knocking Andres for very lukewarm prescience.

I also find the hard-town jjh read strange. It was VERY early and jjh is skilled at the scum alignment as well. Next up we have a much more extended interaction with myself:

Spoiler: Andres/Prism Day 2 spat

I think we should be flipping in {STD, Shirou}, there’s a decent chance Prism is Scum too.

I have so much to read and very little thread presence, but I would think that as Town, it makes a lot of sense to listen to Alisae and I like these takes.

Andres gives me as a third choice. Nothing to write home about. I do think it is important to note that this is at a time when I am not widely townread: most players have me at null, and gob was repeatedly calling for my head.

I need to just read and shut up frankly. I don’t like feeling like if I say something, people are just going to put me down bysaying well you haven’t read so whatever your opinion is useless.

The bigger issue is underexplanation. Your

conclusions

are second-order and not what people are actually looking forward to.

I don’t have the time to be providing detailed explanations. It’s partly why I don’t play much anymore - I can’t give it the focus I think my fellow players deserve (as either alignment).

Even so, I’ll say this. The biggest issue I have with Shirou from what I have been able to read is the confidence they expressed in their read of Alisae. They were perfectly happy to twist every post and position into a Scum narrative to get their way, which it looks like eventually they did. I’m fairly certain we need to punish that. Because the motivation is particularly strong in this game to not have Scum executed D1.

Should I be reading scum or town intent into the fact Andres stated he couldn't do what I was asking, then gave what I was asking for anyway?

can I be your younger sibling then Fire?

Meh if Shirou is Scum Fire probably isn’t.

This one is just straight up bad. Both of these players have played a few games of mafia before.

You are doing a great job of confirming my view of your slot.

I am terrified. The bar you set was insanely low and both of these players instantly clear it. I would love to know what gymnastics you use to justify setting the bar impossibly high for others.

Wait what are you even talking about?

Even more frightening is that you have me as third with Dragons and Shirou. I could infer rational reasons for Alisae's belief because e had a specifically biased worldview that colored certain interactions. Something tells me yours are significantly worse at best and nonexistent at least.

Are you calling me Scum? Just say it. I don’t know what this is even supposed to mean.

These are best read collectively. He thinks my objection to his Shirou/Fire anti-team read is scummy. He moves to worrying I am scumreading him as I become more critical.

I could be wrong but Prism seems to be dismissing Alisae’s reads completely and at the very least you would be considering them seriously here given the confirmation that they were coming from a Town perspective. You could argue they were wrong and perhaps expand on that but I don’t find it convincing in the least to just dismiss their views with “they were biased though rational”. I take that to mean that because they were attacked directly by some of the slots, it’s reasonable that they Scum Read them? Okay, you’re sitting on the outside - isn’t the strength of the push there not give you some suspicions? It does to me.

This post is terrible but plausible. Assuming it's from town, the takeaway is Andres insists my refusal to listen to Alisae's reads is scummy.

You think that Shirou's 989, coming off the heels of an interaction where Firebringer and I are exchanging jokes, is an attempt to insert himself and ingratiate himself with Firebringer in a way that would not occur if Firebringer was also scum.

This is drastically underestimating both players and I could easily find parallel scenarios to rule out every possible S/S pairing that doesn't involve imaginality. I am not calling you scum for it, but I do think it is a very bad read and hipfiring in a way that prioritizes giving content over actually solving and giving

good

content.

You’re not calling me Scum for it? So just a bad player?

Again, more concerned with whether or not I'm scumreading him than my substantive critiques.

You’re way too focused on the reasons as to why Alisae thought you were Scum, and therefore any and all reasons Alisae had for SR’ing STD / Shirou (which were independent of your slot) are bad? This doesn’t make sense to me. I admit that in part, I threw your name out there as a compliment to an STD / Shirou Scum Team. It kind of fits, but Town (and that includes me) never get the Team right on the first try. I certainly don’t think I will either. I do, however, think Shirou is an excellent slot to scrutinize.

His interpretation of my posts is wrong which makes this difficult to parse, but it's unclear to me why he's backing off of me here.

Also, disagreeing with another player is a terrible reason to vote them.

I’m not just going to let that slip by.

It’s a really bad explanation for your vote on Alisae. This is a game based on opinions and perceptions, that then gets facts thrown into it. You will find yourself disagreeing with others. If you go around voting those you disagree with, and protecting those that you agree with (or presumably agree with you), then you’ll be the easiest player to pocket.

He does let it slip by. I stop talking to him about it and he townreads me a few minutes later. As a sidenote, it is deeply ironic that he is lecturing me about how I need to not vote people I disagree with, shortly after complaining that I am severely critiquing him and his reasoning without scumreading him.

You’re way too focused on the reasons as to why Alisae thought you were Scum, and therefore any and all reasons Alisae had for SR’ing STD / Shirou (which were independent of your slot) are bad? This doesn’t make sense to me. I admit that in part, I threw your name out there as a compliment to an STD / Shirou Scum Team. It kind of fits, but Town (and that includes me) never get the Team right on the first try. I certainly don’t think I will either. I do, however, think Shirou is an excellent slot to scrutinize.

You are still mixed up but I am again tired and bored. I doubt anyone else has any interest in this conversation. I'm fine with you assuming the worst and scumreading it. My hope is that you shift your commentary elsewhere.

My vote and strongest SR is Shirou. You’re the one who is wrong.

The next two posts for me are the coup d'grace, keeping in mind that Andres has repeatedly been uncomfortable and uncertain as to whether I am scumreading him for his tertiary push on me just because of how sharp-tongued my critique is.

My vote and strongest SR is Shirou. You’re the one who is wrong.

I am very aware and have been since post 1. It is impressive what you are managing to read into 2021.

Do you really want to keep doing this? I wished you a good night and was sincere in it.

You’re being so obnoxious I will slot you as Town and stop this interaction. Go for the discredit all you want and ignore flipped Town. You do you. When the game is over we can compare notes to see what actually happened. And if you’re Scum good for you for demotivating me into TR’ing you.

I think these are adjustments to the type of player Andres had wrongfully pegged me as: someone who reflexively scumreads their own scumreaders. Andres was worried the entire dialogue that my scumread grew as we exchanged words. These read like an attempt to dial it back lest he get tunneled.

Prior to these final two posts, Andres said first that my dismissive attitude reinforced a scumread on the slot and that my rejection of Alisae was scummy and that he wouldn't let it slide. He then swaps to townreading the former and lets the second slip, coincidentally as he becomes more and more concerned that I am reflexively scumreading and tunneling him. If these thoughts were legitimate, I think he would have instead wondered if my aggression was an attempt to shut him out.

The short of the spoiled commentary: Andres at one point asserted I was scummy for my dismissive attitude towards himself and Alisae, asserting he wouldn't let it slide. As he was increasingly criticized, he became increasingly concerned with whether or not I was scumreading him even as it was plain I did not. He then quickly switches to emphasizing I am not his primary scumread and townreading me for being obnoxious as my criticisms ramp up. I am speculating that this is an on-the-fly adjustment: Andres is scum fearing he had hit on a reflexive tunneler, and he reacted accordingly by trying to recenter the Shirou scumread and giving me a townread.

[Prism]

mod i am very busy with work stuff consider me v/la till friday night

@StD i think my townread of you has been superficial and I think town you would put me in your scum pool at this point. I also didn't like your interactions with camel when i went back to it.

I also told the scum team we are definitely killing shirou here to save him from himself.
So your welcome shirou

Can you vote Andres while you're gone?

[Prism]

I hunted down all of the times Andres called a player obnoxious to see how he reads it. It's not clear. Usually it's in the context of bad mechanical advocacy and wider leadership. For interpersonal scrutiny, once he found the same sort of abrasion & condescension scummy and had it reinforced via flip. It's difficult to confidently evaluate these across contexts.

[Prism]

There was zero appetite for voting you yesterday apart from one or two off-handed suggestions from gob.

Camel had 2 extremely vocal players aggressively pushing him with another strong widely townread voice in Firebringer.

The only scumteam that has you leave over camel is the one where no one on the team knows how to count.

[Prism]

You don't have to be scum, but the idea that camel/Andres/mystery third is much more likely to result in an Andres leave is not sound.

[Prism]

why is T3 town for those of us who had to retake math three times in college

Some of us are worse. One of my proudest achievements in college was failing one math class 5 different times. On the fifth try, I got a professor who didn't know how to put an F in the system. He put in a D- instead: a passing grade.

Persistence pays off, kids.

[Prism]

I want to note I'm reading everything but am on my phone in bed, so I'm waiting until tomorrow to engage substantively.

[Prism]

My first impression is that it is an impressive set of posts: very clear, mostly logical, and relatively thorough.

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

I have more work to do on reading into gob, but my confidence ticked a little bit higher tonight.

[Prism]

I dunno Prism, my first impression is that there are a couple of tells that Andres hasn't read enough of the last 10 pages to understand the current gamestate

I definitely believe he doesn't have complete knowledge, but he was clearly aware of the increased pressure on gob and wasn't trying to hide that fact.

[redacted for brevity]

I’m guessing gob has attracted a lot of scrutiny for this and 528, 559 already? I think you can safely argue gob shouldn’t be trusted, and should remain in anyone’s pool.

He's guessing it's old ground because he knows there's pressure on the slot right now.

I don’t expect to be listened to, and I think STD is probably a decent slot to flip if we aren’t consolidating onto gob. I’ll come back tomorrow.

The fact he thinks town "consolidating onto gob" is very plausible means he knows this is a pretty general sentiment.

Moving from your general point and returning to my specific point about skipping camel's gob/Andres argument, he responded (very thoughtfully!) to the second part of my long post, and it is unlikely he does not take the first part more seriously on scumreading gob.

[Prism]

From what I can tell your pool is T3, Dragons, jjh, and myself. The two voters aren't in this pool, and of the 4 only jjh has really challenged the gob townreads.

[Prism]

To be fair, you (very accurately) call imaginality and Andres coinflips, but they don't appear to be in your bottom even by default. I am skeptical of your pool on various other grounds, but I don't think the "this push is scum-motivated" line really squares with your own reads.

[Prism]

To be fair, you (very accurately) call imaginality and Andres coinflips, but they don't appear to be in your bottom [reads] even by default. I am skeptical of your pool on various other grounds, but I don't think the "this push is scum-motivated" line really squares with your own reads.

Unfortunate time to forget a word, lmao

[Prism]

I'm keen to look back and see who helped funnel today into me v Titus. And at camel interactions.

Any update on this?

This is what I found in terms of people trying to guide the D2 focus towards Titus v me:

gut impulse is that it's titus + imaginality + 1

Imaginality scum becomes a lot more likely if you're town [this was to Titus]

i think titus is a good vote if people wanted to vote her but i don’t think that happens so i’m on imaginality

UNVOTE:
going to reread soon, don’t feel so keen about this vote anymore
titus v imaginality could be s/s but that doesn’t feel right rn

Well we never want to vote outside of Titus/imaginality today because they were both the strongest c-wagons when you factor out people afk-parked on Ydrasse.

This is probably the most +town post imaginality has made all game. It squares very clearly with the reevaluation reads he gave earlier that weren't explained indepth:

Spoiler: Reads wall

Since my previous posts (aside from the one liner) I looked again at the time line and yeah my Prism-gob paranoia was probably indeed just paranoia. Although of the two, I still feel a bit wary of gob individually.

...

Town: jjh, Shirou, T3, Prism
Lean scum: gob, Ydrasse

I get that the Prism/gob speculation died and the timeline criticism eased. Can you explain why it moved me all the way up to town? I'd also appreciate an update with where your reads are at.

You got promoted to town based on vibes - in that whereas earlier I'd found it hard to get a sense of how I read your posts (they felt pro town but in a way that could come from town or from skilled scum), but that later passage of play felt like you were responding genuinely to me. It also felt like it would have been a good time to push me harder if you were scum and thought my reasons were bad, whereas you disagreed in a more open way. Gob on the other hand even though I was wrong on that particular point, I got scummier vibes from how he interacted with me.

My reads are a bit fucked after scumreading both the lims. My confidence is low and I'm secondguessing myself about who else I'm wrong about one way or the other.

Townlean:
Prism
Jjh

Unsure:

Shirou (not sure Shirou bothers to vote me for bad reasons end of D2 if he knows I'm town as well as Titus - could have reflected badly on him if I were limmed)
T3 - need to reread more
Fire (hasn't triggered any alarms but I don't feel particularly confident enough to call him town)
Andres - I remember some D2 posts seemed not great but I haven't dug back into it yet
SavetheDragons - like I say, I'm not sure camel leaves before StD (unless maybe there's some juicy associatives with StD; if there is it'd probably be someone defending him/steering attention away from him at the times it seemed his wagon could build to a lim... will try to look into that)

Scumlean:
Ydrasse
gob

The short of the spoilered is that he wound up with gob and Ydrasse at the bottom.

[Prism]

That was my leading scumteam guess. I thought the Andres vote today was against that idea but not decisive. Rereading Dragons' ISO, though, I can see what you mean. Of the two, I'm still definitely flipping Andres first.

I'm very concerned about the pick today. Some of my townreads I am very sure on (jjh, Shirou), others I am pretty sure on (T3), and others are much more tenuous (Fire, Ydrasse). Individually, these reads have a high chance of being correct, but taken collectively the chance of all being correct is 50% at best, and likely much worse. Being wrong anywhere down that line means a loss if we miss today and the easy scum escapes.

[Prism]

I'm still not sold on gob. I think this is correct as far as it points to gob town, even though there is a WIFOM element to it.

I wasn't keen on trying hard today to lead on anyone and still ain't, but if you're going to post about gob, which Camel publicly said "he felt a duty to defend" and "sell me on this wagon it can't be that bad since shirou is on it", I think I may as well address my own tinfoil theory which is T3.

[Prism]

Did you read gob's scumgame by chance, jjh?

I think there are a few takeaways from it. I recommend Ctrl+F searching Animated Wiz and Merlyn, his partners.

First, gob tends to be very noncommittal when townleaning a partner. Second, looking at the partner ISOs and comparing it to gob's, he continuously failed to respond to the partner's questions and to interact with them at all. I think this is a stark contrast to this game, where he repeatedly returned to dialoguing with camel.

[Prism]

I missed a post in your ISO that suggested you have read it. I concur that his tone isn't very AI, though I suspect his chronic aversion to ever voting someone out is.

[Prism]

I am now extremely confident that gob is town.

I will not be voting there today under any circumstance. I will only be voting Andres unless required to vote elsewhere.

So uh, on camel we have


-Scum on backend of std wagon (pointing away from camel)
-Suddenly, camel is scum for what gob posted earlier

(which does not exist because the prior posted quote is the only earlier commentary on camel)

and is a plausible option for scum on the std wagon
-gob reads 2 posts from before, the latter of which contains camel's reads and then he's like yep that's town now because he agrees with the reads

This wasn't true. Here's the progression:

shirou is scum

UNVOTE: gob

VOTE: Save The Dragons

what was this about? kind of odd to say someone is scum but then vote someone else.

jjh927 is also pretty towny

imginality i think just plays like that so i don't think they're scummy anymore

camel is pretty scummy for what i posted before

I still stand by what I said about the StD wagon. camelCasedSnivy, Shirou, Ydrasse, Alisae, Prism

This probably does have one scum. I'd say camel or Alisae. Prism, idk they're weird. We'll see.

It's very reasonable imo-he thought camel scumreading Shirou [a misinterpretation because camel was playing an opposite joke] but voting Dragons was a bizarre choice.

so im not quite sure if it was obvious but i didn't have much to go off of that std was scum

i liked his posting after we built up a wagon on him so after some time i got off

the gob wagon feels like the same process but with different results i don't like it

HM maybe you are not scum after all.

gob liked that camel was wagoning to drive content rather than to actually get Dragons voted out. He then pretty consistently townreads camel, dialogues with camel about reads, defends camel to me and T3, and talks with camel about how he also wants to flip me.

The next day, he flips his read on camel to more of a null-scum. His reason is "I've felt camel was solvey day 1. This past day though I feel like they have just been messing around." This is a clear progression from his Day 1 read where he liked camel's early wagoning and prodding around.

[Prism]

The above post is very rigorous, and the result of several days of thought culminating in a more pointed review and decisive conclusion.

I want to distinguish it from what I am about to say next, which is much more off-the-cuff, intuitive, and not yet researched.

I think the team is exactly Andres and Firebringer.

[Prism]

Skimming through, I'm not really sold on that scumteam proposition (Andres/Firebringer exactly) even though it's plausible.

I think for now it suffices to say that I am extremely sure gob is town after 3139, 3140, and 3142, and that I scumread Andres greatly after 3083 and 3127. If I were to get a single shot at winning this game, I am flipping Andres every single time.

I am lukewarm on Dragons. I did a cursory review there and found it plausible either way, and while I could explain more fully the competing perspectives in my mind, I will save it for now. I am equally uncertain about imaginality.

[Prism]

I am going to be immensely pissed off if I go with Andres and he flips town and then std leaves the game

If it helps so will I but that's sandbagging for you, he's deadweight as town so he can be deadweight as scum in games like these

[Prism]

Dragons is next up on my review list FWIW

[Prism]

I am wondering why everyone forgot about Imaginality today. Do people just not find them scummy like me or what?

Basically my thinking, yeah. They're not a top townread by any means but they're probably my 3rd or 4th choice right now.

[Prism]

I’m not deadweight. You may have difficulty figuring out my alignment because I’ve not been particularly active, but I will object to that characterization.

I already warned everyone here that you’ll be disappointed if you flip me, but that I will take responsibility as it will be the first mis-execution I ever eat from this type of position. And that’s primarily my fault. But my contributions today making you surer that I’m Scum doesn’t make any sense to me.

3147 is a criticism of Dragons' laconic playstyle and baseline of underexplanation, not you.

[Prism]

my contributions today making you surer that I’m Scum doesn’t make any sense to me.

What in this was confusing to you?

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

First, I think gob was subject to a wider reevaluation: jjh was pushing him, I was vaguely open to it, and imaginality had him low. It is a push that is ripe for opportunism, despite being plausible as town.

Second, I think you avoided my argument about camel's awkward pairing of yourself and gob. Signing onto it as pointing to gob-scum means you are more likely to wind up in a 1v1-a dangerous situation as scum.

Third, while I have not explicitly stated it, you are very incentivized to ramp up your activity and reasonableness now regardless of alignment. I know your history of not being eliminated, and I sympathize. I have not been wrongly eliminated since 2017. However, it is clearly incentivized as scum because you lose the game on the spot if your quality of play does not improve, and fast.

[Prism]

While this was not true at the time of 3127, where I was still hazy on gob, I have since come out with a full-throttle defense of the slot. Any votes there look a tad worse as a result.

[Prism]

I’m not trusting gob and Shirou, but I’m also not understanding Prism’s tunnel at all. They think I’m logical, and coming from a decent place with the information we have. Yet, the posts I’ve made make them more certain I’m Scum? Why? What about them makes you think I’m pushing a Scum agenda?

Surely from this position, I’m looking to escape tonight if I’m Scum. With all the doubt on my slot, do you think I would risk clouding the potential execution of an alternative to my slot by advocating it or voting for it? Or do you think I stay away, and let you guys go forward with an execution I’m either defending, or staying away from? Why would I not just continue to sheep you say? Wasn’t that, to some extent, working better? Maybe, just maybe, I’m actually trying to help.

This is puzzling. You going aggressive as scum "risk

clouding the potential execution of an alternative" instead of putting your best foot forward to show hunting activity and get an elimination, of which you only need one as scum.

You yourself acknowledged that consolidation on gob was far from guaranteed. Your perspective

requires

a nudge and extra effort to get yourself out of the danger zone.

I definitely think it plausible, looking at your posts yesterday in isolation, that you are town trying to help. I would slot it as slightly more likely to be scum and not definitive. Looking at the entire game as a whole, I am pretty sure you are scum.

[Prism]

What a disaster of formatting. Don't use brackets and an s.

I’m not trusting gob and Shirou, but I’m also not understanding Prism’s tunnel at all. They think I’m logical, and coming from a decent place with the information we have. Yet, the posts I’ve made make them more certain I’m Scum? Why? What about them makes you think I’m pushing a Scum agenda?

Surely from this position, I’m looking to escape tonight if I’m Scum. With all the doubt on my slot, do you think I would risk clouding the potential execution of an alternative to my slot by advocating it or voting for it? Or do you think I stay away, and let you guys go forward with an execution I’m either defending, or staying away from? Why would I not just continue to sheep you say? Wasn’t that, to some extent, working better? Maybe, just maybe, I’m actually trying to help.

This is puzzling. You going aggressive as scum "risk(s) clouding the potential execution of an alternative" instead of putting your best foot forward to show hunting activity and get an elimination, of which you only need one as scum.

You yourself acknowledged that consolidation on gob was far from guaranteed. Your perspective

requires

a nudge and extra effort to get yourself out of the danger zone.

I definitely think it plausible, looking at your posts yesterday in isolation, that you are town trying to help. I would slot it as slightly more likely to be scum and not definitive. Looking at the entire game as a whole, I am pretty sure you are scum.
[/quote]

[Prism]

I’m incentivized to post as Town also because (i) I track my win percentage, but (ii) we also probably lose as Town if I get mis-executed from this position and a Scum escapes. Which is what you’re going to get. Ramping my activity can be used against me and okay, so be it. But if I don’t give it a shot, I’m going to be the apathy vote and I would hate going down like that.

None of this is lost on me. My point is there is a very strong scum incentive to make high-effort posts. I have to look to other factors like content, convenience, PoE, and other interactions throughout the game to make that call.

[Prism]

Separately, I was very low hanging fruit at the point camel put a vote on my slot. But think about it. Bussing me when I’m basically null to everyone makes me more likely to be Scum why exactly? Wouldn’t Scum partnered with me there just ignore me, and say that they’re looking forward to getting content from me but that I’m null otherwise? Why push me as a partner? So that we can, as a Team, confirm 5 players as Town, not including them, even though they voted me first? How is that logical?

Please walk me through this vote of camel's directly and explain to me why it deserves the label of an attempt at a "bus" over a meaningless early vote. I strongly encourage you to use quotes and the surrounding context, which are very obvious from his ISO alone.

[Prism]

3163 is refusing to acknowledge that I am not arguing you are scum for putting in effort. Please read the posts if you are town.

[Prism]

I am struggling to believe that you have zero ability to insert yourself into a hypothetical scum-Andres world and talk candidly about incentives and in an objective way.

The casting of these posts of camel's as strong town-interactions, while being seemingly blind to the many other interactions players have had with camel, is equally concerning:

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

ok actually in the spare time

VOTE: Andresvmb's slot

UNVOTE: Andresvmb

Note the post numbers.

But I am willing to argue with you on your own terms! I will readily cede to you that this is a strong town interaction worthy of calling you town.

Let's explore that world.

VOTE: gob

gob and andre are the only ones who haven't posted (why i originally voted imaginality)

Same reason he voted you. Why is gob scum?

[Prism]

3163 is refusing to acknowledge that I am not arguing you are scum for putting in effort. Please read the posts if you are town.

You are not saying it directly, but you are dismissing my posting because you think I have an incentive as Scum to behave a certain way, when I think that’s NAI here. You bringing it up means you think it’s alignment indicative in some way.

I’m telling you my motivation would exist either way, and you can’t tell just from that.

I think I have been very candid and fair on this front. You yourself have just posted acknowledging this immediately before, so I won't argue it further.

I will instead tackle your point that "I think that's NAI here. You bringing it up means you think it's alignment indicative in some way." I was actually making the point that your high-effort posting was NAI to imaginality, so thank you for agreeing with me.

My first impression of Andres' bunch of posts just now is the thought process makes sense to me. Particularly the suspicion of gob but also the wariness over Shirou.

I feel like it woule have been really tempting for Andres as scum to add to the pressure on StD rather than redirecting to gob. Unless the scumteam is specifically Andres and StD. But I still doubt camel escapes first with StD as a scumbuddy though. So I'm going to say Andres is town.

VOTE: gob

My first impression is that it is an impressive set of posts: very clear, mostly logical, and relatively thorough.

Unfortunately, my opinion of his alignment is unchanged. I don't think it's an accident he lands on gob. I also don't think it's an accident that he skipped my argument about camel's pairing of him and gob instead of using it to point to gob, nor that he skipped camel openly stating he "felt a weird" compulsion to defend gob.

I have more work to do on reading into gob, but my confidence ticked a little bit higher tonight.

[Prism]

From my perspective it looks like you think your high-effort posting is incentivized as scum, probably NAI, that I have to look at the broader context and content of yours and camel's posts, and that the vote by camel isn't too indicative after all.

You protested all of those things at first, but it looks like we've found quite a bit of common ground after all. I'm happy to let you continue reading.

[Prism]

You seem to think the turning point is our reads on gob, and presumably my use of camel's ISO in informing my reads. Perhaps tackling that directly, such as by engaging with the merits of my townread on the slot is a more useful angle than trying to convince me you would have played better earlier as scum.

[Prism]

There are actually three key posts in my gob townread, not just the one. 1 2 3

[Prism]

I'm a bit confused as to how that ties into T3/Dragons. If you're arguing that it makes you town, probably. My read on that set of posts is that he townread you earlier in the game and that follows.

[Prism]

Ah, I see, good because you might have nailed a scumteam

[Prism]

Firebringer, you seem to have Andres low in the pool but prefer other slots. Can you talk about that choice?

[Prism]

I'd need to reread T3 before I defend him and I'm not doing that right now so

[Prism]

Look I actually want to finish reading before I keep going with this. I don’t think I’m fully up to date and it makes it harder to be helpful. So let me try to do that.

What a shame he didn't actually finish reading nor move onto step 2, which was actually checking his own reads for soundness.

Here I thought we'd made progress when he essentially admitted I was right across the board when I said the reasons put forward for being Andres being hardtown were bad to NAI.

[Prism]

And before you show up to protest Andres, I'd much rather you spend time evaluating the other side of the gob argument instead of barrelling down your own. Most of my points (and Shirou's that I reference) are direct responses to the scum-gob points.

First and foremost, I'm asking you to return the favor

[Prism]

Somewhere out there Ydrasse is living life like she's "the worst", simply watching town rip each others' eyeballs out, munching on pretzels, and going to sleep at a reasonable hour.

[Prism]

Pinching the bridge of my nose and groaning. Please God just make me wrong on Andres instead of making me do Eurybia's Curse again.

[Prism]

I'm sorry but all I have to say to the suggestion it is myself and gob, largely because it is 1AM, is the following:

L M A O

[Prism]

The idea that I have to tunnel you here to win. Oh my god the hubris.

[Prism]

Someone definitely did not read Day 1 holy guacamole lmfao

[Prism]

Alright I’m okay with my own demise here. I’m going to lose to what has been positioned as a bus from an experienced Scum player who redirected the vote onto two different Town players D1 and D2? I mean it’s masterful.

This has to be one of the hardest meltdowns I have seen in my life. You unironically suggested myself and gob, then typed this paragraph and legitimately thought it was a good idea.

For everyone, this is a link to gob and my's combined ISOs. Please read from #360 to #503, for starters.

Bonus post where I bus both of my partners on Day 1.

Maybe my strategy is to passive-aggressively insult, run circles around, and openly ridicule/demotivate my two partners all game long. What a play that would be.

[Prism]

There’s a part of me that thinks Prism maybe doesn’t put this much effort into trying to figure out the meta of players as Scum? Is that a reasonable thought?

Really? THIS is the suggestion you're worried is unsound and a bridge too far?

[Prism]

The idea that I have to tunnel you here to win. Oh my god the hubris.

This is rich from you if we’re being fair.

If I am scum the chance that I lose this game is zero as long as my partner is not Save the Dragons, in which case it is still 90%+. I can win this game in my sleep in fifty different ways. Several players have mentioned this, yourself included.

You cannot say the same. You are getting pressured extremely hard by the single most active voice in the game. Every time you have tried to move, I have immediately pounced and pulled out the receipts to dismantle the few substantive arguments you have trotted out.

You can be a much more intelligent, skilled, and experienced player than I am to any degree that you please. It is very obvious that our positions in this game are not even slightly comparable.

Your most successful argument of the last ~5 pages is essentially that I am a jerk and it sucks to be pushed by me. I don't think any of us dispute that.

[Prism]

I am very open with what I don't know and my own limitations, particularly with regards to alignment and conclusions. I don't believe

any

exceptional Paragons exist. I think the upper-bound for good scumhunters is universally lower than people think. Worse, I am nowhere close to that upper-bound and it takes an immense amount of work just to get my reads above-average. I am always very open about the fact that I am wrong in my alignment guesses like clockwork.

On the other hand, there's a reason that the receipts always seem to come out in my favor, why when I do make a mistake or miss a point I am usually the first to highlight and correct it, and why I almost always get the upper-hand in arguments, even when everything about my attitude and condescension makes it seem so unfair and like I

have

to be wrong for there to be any justice in the world.

The reason is not that I am a silver-tongued sophist who uses some unseen sleight-of-hand to turn the table. The reason is that I am a relentless perfectionist who has been doing this since I was a small child, and I hate being wrong or committing an error more than anything else in the world. l am very abrasive and frequently contemptuous, but I am extremely thorough in my fact-checking and selective in my argumentation.

Except there's never a need to doublecheck the setup on Day 1!

[Prism]

Time to sleep, but to be clear my last two posts aren't a real response to your arguments. I think my earlier posts suffice for that.

I posted those more to get it off of my chest. It is an issue that has perpetually annoyed me all game. I genuinely think my reads are no more than 10% more accurate than the average player's even with 20x the effort. Meanwhile everyone else thinks they're scumhunting jesus and acts like I willfully ran over their pet cat when I point out their worldviews do not match reality, they misinterpreted an argument, or their argumentative castles are built on sand.

[Prism]

It is no longer 1a and I don't have much interest in responding to 3244 except to reiterate what was in the original quote-the idea scum-Prism has to tunnel you to win the game is blatantly wrong, while the idea scum-Andres might feel the need to protest every post of mine tooth and nail is not.

[Prism]

I am again encouraging you to respond to my gob read on the merits, for probably the third or fourth time.

[Prism]

I mean I could sit here all day and lay out the history of why I think Andres is arguing with either the memory of a goldfish or bad faith, but I am very convinced it is counterproductive at this point. Clearly any attempt to talk about our own slots is not going anywhere.

It should not be nearly so hard to evaluate my gob-townread and discuss that on the merits if he is town , so let's find out.

[Prism]

If you somehow still need a reference for said read:

You seem to think the turning point is our reads on gob, and presumably my use of camel's ISO in informing my reads. Perhaps tackling that directly, such as by engaging with the merits of my townread on the slot is a more useful angle than trying to convince me you would have played better earlier as scum.

There are actually three key posts in my gob townread, not just the one. 1 2 3

[Prism]

FWIW Shirou I'll reread T3 later but I'm walking to class right now

[Prism]

I can think of other explanations, but that is a decent point on Andres even though FMPOV it relies on you being town.

[Prism]

Last time you checked in you seemed pretty sure it was imaginality. Does your vote signal a shift in belief or in pragmatic outlook?

[Prism]

I spent time working through a 3-way ISO of Dragons, T3, and camel. I didn't have many thoughts on Dragons. T3 looked fine, e.g. the exchange between 2318 and 2330, but overall it's not as good as I remembered. I didn't really find it conclusive. I could give more substantive commentary but I'm tired.

Incidental takeaways are that I still think Shirou/jjh are hard-town. I felt better about Firebringer and Ydrasse looking at some camel posts. It was interesting to see that at one point camel does actually pick a side and start arguing for an imaginality flip over a Titus flip.

My preference right now is Andres->Dragons. I don't really know the ordering beyond that.

[Prism]

I'm actually going to move Dragons up. imaginality is probably my second pick.

[Prism]

Yeah I'm going to revise my order to this:

Andres->imaginality->T3->Dragons->Ydrasse->Firebringer->gob->jjh->Shirou.

Translated into reads form with clear gaps

Bet my life on it town
=======
Shirou
jjh

Very town
=======
gob

Townlean
=======
Firebringer
Ydrasse
Dragons

Nullish
========
T3
imaginality

Very scum
=========
Andres

[Prism]

For jjh, these quotes are what moved the needle for me towards a town-Dragons world.

Spoiler: quotes

omg wow

having 3 scumreads is wild in a game like this

to me it looks like you were trying to set something up with your reads and turned on it

pedit why tho

set up what with my reads

idk I'm not in your scum PT

i actually looked at his iso and his last several posts were nothingburgers

having thoughts is good enough for me

camel, t3, and andres have just been such non presences that i can't really town read them.

am i supposed to take this seriously

yes

ok

I've felt camel was solvey day 1. This past day though I feel like they have just been messing around.

i don't think I've been slacking today

also just would like to say

why do people keep asking for my readslist didn't i just post one

i specifically asked you and imaginality because you both are in my poe and neither of you have votes on anyone right now

[Prism]

im trying to parse Andres's 180 on me. I guess as town he could have decided to play and not sheep and realized his sheep target was bad, or as scum he could have saw the winds blowing a different way and tried to push a different target. I kind of think it's the former, though.

I thought about this and reviewed. Votes on you were not off the table, and I said you were a backup, but they had mostly stalled out. The timing is after I kick into high gear in 3083. It's hazy to me now, but my impression at the time was the push on gob had pretty ideal timing for scum-Andres.

[Prism]

Maybe Andres can explain why she's hardtown, since that is again his most unique contribution to the game by a mile. So far the explanation is "I read page 74", and I can infer he thinks those posts are out of her range. I am skeptical.

[Prism]

What a disaster of a day. If getting Andres would require me to move heaven and earth then I'm going here.

VOTE: imaginality

[Prism]

I just saw the hospital line and now I feel bad. Awful timing.

Take care, imaginality.

[Prism]

T3 isn't my top choice but scum has little to no ability to prevent themselves from getting wagoned. The rapid votes don't mean much. I have zero interest in voting any of Shirou, Fire, and only slight interest in voting Dragons.

Camel v. T3 was a recurrent issue, there is plenty of meat there. I'd just pull up Camel's ISO and Ctrl+F "T3".

[Prism]

The world waits with bated breath. Anticipation fills the air.

[Prism]

I am eating dinner and researching 1600s public nuisance law but go off king.

[Prism]

Chronically anxious man struggles to live up to the expectations of both himself and others. A tale as old as time.

[Prism]

I believe in gob. He will return.

[Prism]

I want to reiterate that my preference is Andres->imaginality. I am with jjh on not voting Firebringer. My reasoning is very different from gob's, but if jjh isn't willing to vote imaginality at all, then again maybe we can split the difference and put 3 more on Andres.

[Prism]

T3 is currently at 4. This is effectively E-1.

[Prism]

Again I would much rather go Andres than imaginality. It depends on having the votes to do so.

The people that don't want T3 should STRONGLY CONSIDER making an alternative sooner than later.

[Prism]

I'm not going to make the game even more insufferable by getting back into the weeds.

I'm again going to link my main post and reiterate that I think gob is very town and his latest activity is icing.

Part of my motivation here is that Andres is not voting T3. He is in prime position to blitz.

[Prism]

SHE IS TOWN

HALLELUJAH

VOTE: Andres

[Prism]

(I believe that's three on Andres-T3, Ydra, Prism-and four on T3-Shirou, Firebringer, Dragons, imaginality)

[Prism]

Andres is asserting I have any scum incentive at all to flip this off of T3.

I literally win the game by letting that go through and waiting to do this until tomorrow unless my partner is exactly T3.

Weird that I'm so impatient to get Andres today and not tomorrow. Really bizarre.

[Prism]

As a bonus he doesn't think my partner is T3.

[Prism]

I also love that despite asking him SIX TIMES why my reasoning on gob is wrong Andres can't do anything except show up and complain that everyone sucks and he's disappointed the moment he gets voted.

[Prism]

For someone that doesn't want to argue with me about our own respective slots, the dude adamantly refuses to talk about anything else with me.

[Prism]

You haven't gotten to it in like 4 days but here you are again whining up a storm and fighting with me over our own slots. Bizarre how one of these you always have time for, usually within the hour.

[Prism]

This feels significant that T3 didn't get hammered.
Makes me think if T3 is town then gob and Ydrasse and Andres are town because I think any of them as scum would just take the chance to hammer town and escape. (As none of them are especially well positioned.)

But the more likely scenario is T3 is scum.

It takes 6 votes. T3 had 4. Another player needed to vote before a scum can blitz.

[Prism]

i think that i’ve read most of the isos in varying degrees but i skimmed yours camel gobs dragons today (am at work)
most of my reasons to not vote people are either due to camel stuff or some other things that feel Towny to me even if they’re alongside not as good camel stuff. i feel that the only reason i have to call you town is that your emotions could come from town but you’ve not done anything to rule yourself out of being a wolf (and i feel you’re aware of that too?) so i don’t understand the like… indignation

This is a dude that thinks I am mafia for not buying his arguments that 1. he would have tried harder earlier and 2. camel voting him before he posted makes him town, and because I think gob is town. He has admitted he has not read why I think gob is town and that he does not intend to anytime soon.

It's just bad faith.

[Prism]

I'm not going to respond to 3374.

[Prism]

Actually the third paragraph of 3374 is fucking hilarious and should be pinned to the top of the page.

[Prism]

Then go do it.

[Prism]

This is not a commentary on alignment or advocacy for a position, but a sidenote addendum.

There is no substance here and you can skip it unless you are uniquely concerned that I am a giant arrogant idiot.

Spoiler:

I want to reiterate for several different reasons, first for the table writ large, second for Andres in the event he is in fact town and working himself into a fury, the following:

1. Mafia at the end of the day is a game of voting and judgment. I will vote and push who I think the mafia is. That is the game.

2. I am wrong like clockwork and this game may be no exception. This is a higher-confidence read, but I've been wrong on them many times and likely will be again before long. I hate being wrong, but I have come to expect it and am very used to it.

Several players (gob, jjh, Dragons) have pointed to their high accuracy reads.

I am not them, I have never been them, and not once in the last 5 years have I thought my reads were a strength I have.

To quote earlier: "I don't believe any exceptional Paragons exist. I think the upper-bound for good scumhunters is universally lower than people think. Worse, I am nowhere close to that upper-bound and it takes an immense amount of work just to get my reads above-average."

My idea of an upper-bound is probably 1.5x random chance. Mine is probably something like 1.1x-1.2x random chance if I put in an insane amount of effort, and at or below if I do not.

3. I have always taken full responsibility for losing games and being wrong as town. I called Titus a liability, but make no mistake: it is my fault for being wrong on her. Much of my annoyance with her was actually because she tried to foist it on me 'knowing she was town but being too proud to admit it' instead of the more straightforward "Prism is wrong".

In particular, that allegation of Titus's was annoying because I've had this conversation before in a context where I put my heart and soul into the game, repeatedly took responsibility, only to have the player assert that I policyvoted them and didn't actually try.

[Prism]

I would not want to live in a world where Andres and T3 are both town and someone else blitzes, but granted that would have to be me, Ydrasse, gob, or jjh so maybe.

[Prism]

FMPOV I'm nervous doing that because I think it tells us my townreads are town. I think people are more likely to believe T3 is scum than think both scum are on the wagon, and I think that would be a mistake.

From Andres's POV I guess he would not want to leave it to me/gob.

[Prism]

Maybe Andres is just town tbh

...I'm not even saying this because I scumread Andres, but how did you reach that conclusion from recent events?

[Prism]

I don't think voting town-T3 is actually bad for scum-Andres but the blitz mechanic provides some a lot of incentive to wait and hope someone fucks up.

[Prism]

I'm willing to switch if jjh gives an actual read on Andres and explains his current preference pool.

[Prism]

Graded on good faith and effort not persuasiveness/result

[Prism]

I'm cackling

[Prism]

Mafia continues to make the best case that hell is other people, it's like every player has gotten assigned a personal little demon this game.

[Prism]

I am not voting Firebringer today lol

Andres then imaginality is my order

[Prism]

I trust in your alignment. Our reads occasionally align, but our reasoning could usually not be more different, and I don't defer to other people on that front.

[Prism]

The question is do you trust in my skills?

I wasn't joking with what I said yesterday.

No.

[Prism]

You are not unique in that regard. I do not defer to other players' skill, purported or actual, period.

[Prism]

(Note for completeness: I do defer on some meta reads where subjective knowledge is king.)

[Prism]

Unfortunately, Fire is 100% right even if he's scum.

[Prism]

At this rate perhaps Andres and I should hold hands and vote gob after all.

[Prism]

towniest thing ive seen t3 do this game is just decide to move away from andres. I guess they could be aligned and doesn't want to bus

did u not like any of their camel interactions

is puppy so high brow and skeptical that they mean so little

[Prism]

Guys, like seriously. You must understand that I am not just making shit up.

Learn these terms "wolf on wagon" and "wolf off wagon"

We are hunting not players, but worlds. The winning combination.

You are greatly testing my patience. Not one have you introduced a novel concept to the players at this table. You are greatly overestimating yourself, but this is routine. The degree to which you are underestimating your peers is astounding.

[Prism]

To return to the more substantive point, Firebringer actually voted scum and pushed for it at a time when jjh and myself were also inclined to go there. This is not dispositive and clearing. In contrast, Andres has voted Alisae, Shirou, Dragons, and yourself. You seem to think there is exactly 0 scum in those 4.

[Prism]

My patience is now zero. If you are in fact the talent you think you are, I am happy to let you learn the hard way. I suspect you are not and you will not, like the thousands of others I have seen.

[Prism]

I cannot explain exactly why, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.

somehow i missed this one and i am HOWLING

[Prism]

VOTE: gob

the fact gob just keeps ignoring me pushing snivy and not just arguing that i was scum bussing is like so bad faith.

all these vote count arguments are obfuscating actual analysis.
gob could be town. Idc right now. This is boring

I mean it's no secret they're bad, and I concur that they're obfuscating/distracting, but we should probably just ignore them and let his voice echo into a void at this point instead of putting him front and center.

[Prism]

For Andres: I mean clearly we're unanimous that he's using ideas that have been around since 2004, but do you still really doubt he is sincere in his presentation and argumentation?

[Prism]

I also find it very ???? that gob unvoted imag when the wagon appeared to be gaining traction

I wasn't surprised for two reasons. First was because you've always been in his scumpool, but looking back it appears you were recently put in town at some point. I won't ask. Second, this lukewarm commitment to votes before deadline is basically what we saw from him Days 1 & 2.

[Prism]

I've put forth obviously terrible arguments as scum and just been laughed at and townread

I don't think it's impossible my any means, but mafia is a game of judgment. I think he comes down strongly on the "likely sincere" side of things, and if I'm wrong then that's that.

I also think it's the icing on the cake and that he's town for other reasons, so I'm not very worried. The point of my question was to challenge Andres's read in light of the posts he had just read. I think his middle-of-the-road answer is well-crafted, but I still think the more natural conclusion to reach is "gob is town".

And like I said, if I'm town, Andres is town, and gob is scum, Andres and I can trade an egg on each other's faces.

[Prism]

I guess in that world Andres would get two eggs to my one, but who's counting?

[Prism]

I’ve read every post. I have this nagging feeling I have a blind spot, so I may do a few ISOs. I will not be voting imaginality today. I also want it considered that I’ve sheeped jjh in this game a lot and called them Town, and you Prism have very many times argued consistently that jjh very much seems to be Town given their predisposition say in their dealings with STD. Like it should give you some pause that as Scum, I’ve then given Town a double vote for large chunks of this game.

If I were to pull up Mafia451 and find a game where you were scum and Ellibereth was town, I wouldn't happen to find a similar strategy to the one here in any game, would I?

[Prism]

Let's go Prism!

VOTE: Andres

ANGELS SANG OUT

IN AN IMMACULATE CHORUS

[Prism]

This isn’t specific enough. What strategy do you think I would be replicating?

Offering up your vote to him as a means to get townread. Fortunately, I wouldn't have asked if I had actually been able to find a game of it.

Statistically I just don't think making a town Day 1 doublevoter is a disaster.

[Prism]

I’ve read every post. I have this nagging feeling I have a blind spot, so I may do a few ISOs. I will not be voting imaginality today. I also want it considered that I’ve sheeped jjh in this game a lot and called them Town, and you Prism have very many times argued consistently that jjh very much seems to be Town given their predisposition say in their dealings with STD. Like it should give you some pause that as Scum, I’ve then given Town a double vote for large chunks of this game.

Unfortunately, I actually did just find an example of you displaying this exact behavior as scum, with the same lack of time explanation you've presented here as a bonus.

I’m back tomorrow btw.

Also,

@RTP what you voting? I’ll follow you today since I’m quite a bit behind and it’s an easy way for me to figure out what you are.

You never did answer my question though about IV but I don’t think IV has come back at all so I’m not sure there’s that much to say anyway.

The only real difference as far as I can tell is that you called jjh hardtown instead of framing it as a feeler.

Very unlucky!

[Prism]

Me not having time to post is NAI. There’s multiple games I have played here where I have clearly fallen behind and been open about it, as both alignments. And I’m going to say this and it may sound a bit harsh, but I don’t give a fuck about whether you believe my comments about my real life or not. It would be absolutely pathetic for me to lie about whether I’m actually busy or not to gain a supposed advantage, and I really don’t have to lie about my life in a game of mafia. Like honestly, what a stupid argument. I have literally not in a single game I’ve played used an excuse about what’s going on in my life to gain an advantage. Real life interferes, and that’s just what it is.

At no point have I implied you were lying about your IRL.

You told me that a specific behavior of yours this game "should give me pause" and suggest that you are town. I hunted down a post where you did the same thing-gave a town player a doublevote-under similar circumstances-restrained by your time limitations.

The implication is not that you lied about your real life. The implication is that you have done exactly what you did this game as scum, despite your insistence that I should townread it.

[Prism]

So the overall structure of the game doesn’t change the impact of acting like a double voter on what we agree is a Towny slot? No chance that the differences in game structure maybe make the strategy a valid play as a pocket attempt in one, and a much riskier gambit here? Not possible?

I was recently told a joke by a federal circuit judge about the power of arguing from precedent. The gist of it was that while questioning a lawyer about a legal holding in a car accident, the lawyer says "Your Honor, the facts in these cases could not be further apart. First off, the driver in that case was named John Doe, but mine is named Joe Smith. Second, the car in that case was blue, this one was red, making it more noticeable to the common eye..." and so on.

I think you are making a bold attempt to distinguish the games that falls very short. Eliminating scum Day 1 is really bad in a 13p mini normal. Eliminating scum is really bad in this game. I'd wager the EVs are close to the same.

Again, you might be town anyway, but I doubt that this is the key indicator holds any water.

[Prism]

Maybe Shirou and Prism and Andres are all town

Maybe, but I haven't seen a good reason to townread Andres all game, he's still arguing to vote one of my strongest townreads, and this latest meta discovery isn't helping.

[Prism]

I'm not really interested in debating this and getting into the weeds, especially since I reject the entire premise that it is a bad strategy outright and only tracked down the meta receipts to argue on your terms.

I don't think I want or need to accept a third layer of things I don't believe and argue about them, even though I easily could.

[Prism]

You're the one who argued it was +town, not me. I would have readily accepted it as NAI, and I actually believed that it was. I never pushed you for the doublevote choice.

The price you're paying now is the price for being dishonest.

[Prism]

The lesson here is if you're going to say "I wouldn't do X as scum" and actively push the point repeatedly, you should probably make sure you haven't done X as scum.

[Prism]

If it helps for me to say I don't think you're mafia

because

you gave jjh your vote early, I can do so.

I think that 1. giving jjh your vote

does not make you town

, and 2. that

falsely indicating it is an exclusive town behavior

is scummy.

[Prism]

Maybe Shirou and Prism and Andres are all town

I'll give it to you that Andres effort here makes me wanna give him some town points compared to Imaginality or StD but I don't think it's enough to change my mind

I mean I'm pretty sure at this point that his modus operandi is just to argue every minutia tooth and nail to make it unreadable. There were points in prior arguments where he was very clearly arguing

in favor of my point

but framing it as a loud protest that I disagreed with (e.g. timing of his activity spike being NAI)

This one is so crystal-clear it's unbelievable. Yet he's still here trying to argue he should be +town for giving his vote to jjh, warping my point to be "the doublevote is scummy", and throwing a fit over getting the receipts pulled instead of just saying yeah sorry it's NAI and moving on.

[Prism]

I'm going to be mean and say that jjh while present has been absolutely useless.

[Prism]

gob as the town mascot is iconic though, 10/10

[Prism]

Did some rooting around the previously linked scumgame from Andres. Level of effort+types of appeals are pretty par for the course, so he's probably not town for those either. What a shame that for as hard as I've looked, I continue to come up empty on this front.

[Prism]

I don't have anything qualitative to add.

imaginality will need to move his vote but is presumably tied up with his personal life right now. jjh is determined to openly rubbernecking.

I believe imaginality (jjh, T3, Dragons) and Andres (Prism, Ydrasse, Shirou) are tied at 3 each. Neither are voting each other yet, ie. are in prime blitz position. I'm going to pretend jjh's vote is final even though he's blatantly rubbernecking. gob is most likely to revote imaginality at the end of the day. Firebringer hasn't been willing to vote Andres all day, so this looks like imaginality is going down at the end of the day unless I want to harass the table. I don't.

[Prism]

go

d

b don't give me false hope

[Prism]

Ever seen "The Good Place"? We are in The Good Place.

[Prism]

I have no more will this game. Do whatever.

[Prism]

It wasn't the shitposts. You two are voting who you think the scum are and having a fun detour. Others are tempting fate by wondering what happens if we go have a deadline scramble for fun.

[Prism]

It doesn't really matter because none of you will believe me or understand it anyway.

I will probably just use this, and keep it to myself and make up dumb reasoning in later games.

Your reasoning has literally been in use on this site since 2004. Here's a quick 2007 link for fun.

It is not novel. Players on this website learn about it during their first game. Players at this table do not rely on it exclusively for a reason. They are extremely skeptical of your use because they have learned the limitations of it over time. One of the most common errors is failing to appreciate basic conditional probability, which is that when you chain assumptions on the basis that they are

probably true

together, the final conclusion becomes significantly less likely. Your analysis is riddled with these unsound assumptions chained together, which is why everyone thinks it's awful.

[Prism]

This pool contains a wolf, mechanically, because the mafia

have

to vote certain ways. I cannot explain exactly why

, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.

Player who doesn't understand the theory behind wagon analysis insists it has no limitations and it is everyone else who does not understand the tool. Bold.

[Prism]

This pool contains a wolf, mechanically, because the mafia

have

to vote certain ways. I cannot explain exactly why

, since I didn't really learn this myself I was just told about this "life hack" so to speak.

Player who doesn't understand the theory behind wagon analysis insists it has no limitations and it is everyone else who does not understand the tool. Bold.

If you have seen what I have seen, you wouldn't be acting the way you are.

I suspect I am acting the way I am because I have seen much, much more, but suit yourself. You are the superior talent.

[Prism]

For imaginality, it's not ideal to eliminate you today if you are town. You have been a very controversial vote across every stage of the game. Even if we vote another town player, the escaped scum might be clearing.

[Prism]

I thought that line was scummy FWIW, but part of my annoyance here is that we have dueling wagons on my top two choices. There's a big gap between Andres and imaginality for me, but the idea of people getting bored and YOLO wagoning later and getting a haphazard scramble on someone like Ydrasse or Dragons bothers me greatly.

[Prism]

Firebringer I hope you've taken notes this game on how to troll me, gob has put on a masterclass

[Prism]

Everyone understands it.

[Prism]

As far as I can tell this votecount is still correct since Shirou revoted

I believe imaginality (jjh, T3, Dragons) and Andres (Prism, Ydrasse, Shirou) are tied at 3 each. Neither are voting each other yet, ie. are in prime blitz position. I'm going to pretend jjh's vote is final even though he's blatantly rubbernecking. gob is most likely to revote imaginality at the end of the day. Firebringer hasn't been willing to vote Andres all day, so this looks like imaginality is going down at the end of the day unless I want to harass the table. I don't.

[Prism]

whats the vote count at.
ill consider andres if it helps the gamestate but i don't really think its andres

now look here u little shit

WHY

[Prism]

Nah that definitely put my blood pressure through the roof don't worry

[Prism]

That's E-2, and that means imaginality can no longer blitz it.

[Prism]

@Dannflor

: gob is not currently voting

[Prism]

Anyway I now have a wealth of information on the majority of players. The ultimate hedging of bets is to go for the player who has generated the least information

VOTE: Ydrasse

Firebringer if there is a single post to put on the cheat-sheet index card for the exam it's probably this one.

[Prism]

It is tempting to just vote imaginality together with Andres and let a second scum blitz it if they can. Very tempting.

[Prism]

I am beyond frustrated with jjh. If someone else votes imaginality, I will vote there, Ydrasse can join and we can let Andres escape if imaginality is town.

[Prism]

I am dead serious when I say it is taking everything in my power to not join Shirou/gob and rageflip him. imaginality is at least still a very plausible partner.

[Prism]

VOTE: ydra

I have the exact same read on ydra as I do on imaginality

If you flip back Ydrasse and I can put him at 5, ie. E-1 and blitzrange for Andres.

[Prism]

That's actual E-1 for Andres.

Any town not on Andres should post the second they see this to confirm they're not hammering

[Prism]

imaginality especially should post ASAP if they're town

[Prism]

If I'm wrong I'm wrong. If it is imaginality and not Andres then I scream into a void about my second choice being mafia two days in a row.

[Prism]

If we can get an Ydrasse lim I'd happily go there rather than Andres

I'm doing this so he gets the notification, if you're town post confirming you're not blitzing Andres.

[Prism]

If it is imaginality and not andres then you are going to love how we had a serious imaginality wagon this day phase

And then instead of blaming myself for being wrong we can all go put Growlithe on a pike and march him around town

[Prism]

I was making a joke that Firebringer was just kind of hanging around today and vibing, not that he'd be scum for it. I haven't really thought very far ahead on partner pairings beyond (Andres/imaginality) seems plausible, recent votes didn't seem clearing to me given lateday dueling wagons and there's only so long they can avoid it.

[Prism]

I think those recent votes are extremely clearing considering that they HAVE to avoid it or they lose the game

My point is that they have to avoid the vote actually going through, not voting each other.

It's definitely very in favor of it being T/T or T/S, I just don't think it's decisive.

[Prism]

I mean we can continue to argue this but it's mostly an academic discussion rather than a practically relevant discussion at this point.

[Prism]

If you want to have the academic discussion, dueling scum wagons hovering at 4/3 with extremely high probability of coalescing means the game is near-lost. At this point you have to push outside while still laying down anti-associatives. The vote is one way to do that, and both slots have been primarily interested in going outside of the other.

Again I think it's indicative they're not paired, but extremely desperate times call for more risky moves.

Gob unvoting imag when the wagon became serious because he got jumpy that I voted there when he supposedly townread me was super concerning, while we're at it

I'm less concerned by this one because gob has stalled out wagons basically all game.

[Prism]

(Plainly I could also see something like Andres/T3 or Andres/Fire, by no means wedded to that team)

If Andres is town then things go more of the rails and I have to examine more imaginality pairings and probably really start questioning my high townreads too.

[Prism]

If your name is Dragons, gob, or imaginality, please post ASAP saying you aren't hammering Andres

For the new page

[Prism]

I know he's busy with his personal issues, not mad or angry at him, but imaginality showing up for that one liner and disappearing before the hammer confirmation is

killing

me

[Prism]

summoning ydrasse please post chill music

[Prism]

I'm so dumb imaginality is ALREADY VOTING ANDRES HE CAN'T BLITZ

IT'S FIREBRINGER THAT'S THE FOURTH

[Prism]

I WISH I COULD SAY I WAS REACTION TESTING IMAGINALITY BUT I WASN'T

[Prism]

I probably should have left it as an after-the-fact reaction test but lmao

Stressing myself out for zero reason

[Prism]

Yes, unlikely but if I'm going to mess up I might as well have made the most of it

[Prism]

That's not how you troll me, how you troll me is writing

"im scum

VOTE: andres"

[Prism]

VOTING

- All votes and unvotes must be in bold or in VOTE: tags, with vote tags being preferable.

Thankfully Dann has a more stringent rule than me but WOOF bad growlithe

[Prism]

no one has a rule that u can vote without tags lol

Some mods use my ruleset (petapan, RH) which has the last clause:

• Votes must not be spoilered and should be formatted as VOTE: Player or
  Vote: Player
  , or they will not be counted. Abbreviating someone's name is acceptable, so long as I can discern who you were voting for without trouble. If I think it should count as a vote, it will.

Functionally the rule works to encourage visible votes, but when the player is intentionally using it to be ambiguous or for advantage, I typically construe it against that player.

[Prism]

yea yea u little rascal i'll change the wording just 4 u next time

[Prism]

Just waiting on gob/Dragons now. I'm not very worried about gob but Dragons is a big test hurdle.

[Prism]

I thought about mentioning it earlier but Rankings of Kings was also a very disappointing show, started off so strong and then dipped down to a 5, where it stayed the rest of the way through.

[Prism]

I haven't seen Odd Taxi but it is on the watchlist, right now I'm tied down by LoGH

[Prism]

i felt the opposite. the show started weak and got really good imo. Especially some of the characters feeling bland and one dimmensional early but were given a lot more later that made me actually care about some.

It was really effective the first one or two backstories showing the evil guy is kind of an alright guy after all. It then became way too repetitive and predictable IMO, which is what killed it for me.

My shining beacon example of a simple fun show that is neither too ambitious nor too formulaic is Spy x Family.

[Prism]

I should be working on my research but instead here I am listening to Garth Brooks, occasionally reading a few assignments, and waiting on Dragons. It's a simple life.

[Prism]

if god really loves me it'll be andres/dragons

but god doesn't love me

[Prism]

I mean, assuming you're town, it's not really clear why this makes jjh scum. He was the reason people went fishing on Ydrasse in the first place, and I don't think his reasoning for it is wildly irrational.

He intentionally stalled out your wagon for days on end to try and force middle-road voters to make difficult decisions and to see what compromises would play out. I've been very annoyed by it but it's pretty clearly town-motivated.

[Prism]

I’m going to flip Town and I’m going to be pissed that you actually voted me when I’ve been trying and obvious. Like screw you.

I don't think a single person in this game has claimed you are obvious-town. The simple conclusion is that it is in fact not obvious at all.

It doesn't make me any less wrong if you flip town, but something tells me you have also misvoted town that are trying very hard a time or two.

[Prism]

Perhaps this is pedantic but it seems to me that it is less "I am going to flip town and I'm going to be pissed" and more "I am town and I am pissed"

[Prism]

You still have time to review T3 FWIW.

[Prism]

FWIW I've looked around and I can't find an example of him being this vitriolic when voted out as mafia, which does give some hesitation.

[Prism]

And I’m so over these meta arguments about me when it’s like impossible the one player has managed to read every game I’ve played in enough detail to figure out how I display emotion or in what circumstances, or how I argue.

I just used it to explain that it made you more likely town, but fair enough, I'll disregard it entirely and stop evaluating you.

[Prism]

Mafia is a very hard game. You use all the tools in the kit that are available to you. Players armsrace with meta.

I've made three specific meta arguments about you: 1) You giving a vote to a town player is probably NAI. 2) Your

style

, not substance, of questioning is probably NAI (and I would really hope it is, given that it is the bare minimum you need to be able to fake) 3) Your level of vitriol here is a bit +town.

Those are pretty narrow findings, I'm not exactly claiming to see into your mind and know what is actually scum-indicative for you.

[Prism]

Part of me is fine going on imaginality and letting Andres take the scum W by relying on vitriol if he wants it.

[Prism]

Well, suit yourself, I'll try my best to grant your wish on the execution front. No promises on the voting gob front.

[Prism]

Part of me is fine going on imaginality and letting Andres take the scum W by relying on vitriol if he wants it.

If you were gonna be like that I'd have continued trying to see who I could get to wagon Ydrasse, although I guess it actually just goes to show we did need this amount of time to resolve the day properly

I mean I'm still voting there and it's spurred by a behavior that as far as I can tell he hasn't displayed as scum (I did find one ragequit as what looks like a 3p a few years back though). I had zero before this, despite not buying it initially.

[Prism]

Just wondering Andres-looking back on page 74, do you feel any renewed conviction Ydrasse is town?

[Prism]

I'll revisit jjh tomorrow if I'm alive. Unfortunately, just as I am (perhaps) very wrong on you, you are very wrong on gob.

My offer to go on imaginality still stands.