Newbie 1676 | Hungarian Nóták | Endgame

[Kim]

Every time* I've played with a town Smudger, he's subbed out. He hasn't subbed out of this game. Therefore, he's scum. Easy peasy!

VOTE: Smudger

*"Every time" consists of one prior game. This line of small text is size 75, which is approved, but I wouldn't use this size for anything important.

[Kim]

1) No.
2) Yes; I've subbed into a Newbie game, played a Newbie game from start to finish, and subbed out of an Open game. Check my wiki page for more details.
3) Irrespective of the validity of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, INTP fits me almost perfectly.
4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.
5) Because my PM from Plotinus says I'm town.
6) If I only get one topping, green peppers.
7)

2001: A Space Odyssey

-- but that changes regularly.
8) Canadian indie pop -- New Pornographers, Tegan and Sara, Purity Ring, Metric, Grimes, Alvvays, etc.

[Kim]

4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.

Isn't that

precisely

what scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.

I think scum would say it in hindsight, but I think it's more indicative of my pessimism with respect to Mafia than it is to my alignment. I've been Town in all three games I've played and have yet to have an end-of-Day vote on scum in eight tries.

@

Kim

: It's way early in the game, but any of those logical posts you could share?

I haven't been at home since the game started, so I had been phone-posting. Now I can copy-paste and use tabs more easily. I guess the "best" two examples would be Newbie 1654, Day 2 and Open 615, Day 2. Looking at my other games to see where I voted might help you get a read on my style if it's that much of a concern to you.

[Kim]

@

Kim

: Thank you for the post - seriously - but we have some miscommunication here. I meant, "would you post one of your logical analyses on this game?"
Then again, ignore it for now. I'll ask again later, when the game really gets going. Just from reading other games, I hadn't realized that takes a while to happen.

Heh. You're right that it does take a while to have enough info to analyze, but I can tell you what I've noticed so far. All of this might only be slightly better than random, but being open with my thoughts at this point can't hurt.

You seem to be trying to get us out of the random stages. That's a pro-town thing to do. hiplop's pressure on Belisarius looks misguided to me, but maybe something will come out of it. Bel (can I call you Bel?) shouldn't need my help defending himself, at any rate. I've sensed nothing from Smudger and Bluebird yet, but that doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me.

Spoiler: Random, mostly off-topic thoughts

I generally use a spreadsheet to keep track of votes (or at least votes with meaning). I'll keep notes and sometimes compose longer posts in a text editor (specifically Notepad++ in my case, but there are plenty of them that would work just as well). I actually thought Alvvays was Nova Scotian (my list of bands was supposed to be from west to east, although my putting Edmonton east of Calgary was a lucky guess) because I thought that was how they got Kate Beaton to design a T-shirt for them, but I must have misinterpreted something. (Also, I really should've said that I would be remembered for parenthetical clauses.)

[Kim]

Huh. So I guess being open with my thoughts can hurt. (More later after sleep and a little work.)

P-edit: Welcome!

[Kim]

Huh. So I guess being open with my thoughts can hurt. (More later after sleep and a little work.)

I would think that you would know that by now.

I do know that white knighting is frowned upon (and rightfully so), but it's such a natural impulse for me. I thought I was doing a good enough job of avoiding that, but I guess not. (This is assuming that that's why they voted for me; I could be wrong.)

@hiplop: You've gone from voting for Belisarius on factually incorrect grounds and encouraging others to do likewise to sheeping his vote. I'd love to hear an explanation for this, as this seems like the scummiest thing I've seen so far in this game.

UNVOTE: Smudger
VOTE: hiplop

(Seriousness level: 3/5. I would not have put you at L-1 at this time.)

[Kim]

I'm not voting Kim for white knighting, per se. I'm voting him for saying that he thought something might come from hiplop's vote on me, while trying to interfere with it by pooh-poohing it.

I'm also not happy about Kim pointing out "factually incorrect grounds", but that's mainly because I wanted to see how long it would take hiplop to realise it on his own.

That was dumb of me and I apologize.

Spoiler: Explanation/excuse

My first mafia experience was reading old games (circa 2010) on a forum for a Q&A newspaper column. Those games were played by very smart, very logical people, because that's the kind of person who posted on that forum. (I mostly lurk there.) The impression that I got from reading the games was that since scum would have to lie, bad logic = scum. (This was before I found MafiaScum.)

Actually, on that very subject, do you really think hiplop's vote on me could come from scum? Do you really think scum, who has to be extra careful to avoid being caught in a lie, could have a) been absent-minded enough to cast a vote on an easily disprovable basis, and b) fail to notice it for so long?

I've seen scum vote early in the Day based on misreading other people's posts. He was corrected by the person that was voted for, so I don't know how long it would have taken him to find their error himself. (Also, that wasn't all of hiplop's case against you -- he also mentioned your answer to his RQS.) That's 1/7 of the scum I've personally played with, so I can't say that his vote against you makes him townier. (It's probably null, but I think the sloppiness is anti-town.)

I think that hiplop's actions are worthy of pressure. I'm still not sure how loose/tight I should be with my vote early in day stages -- I've gotten criticism for not voting in a couple of my earlier games. Chances are that hiplop isn't scum, but I could really say the same for literally everyone at this point.

[Kim]

@

Kim

: We couldn't disagree more in our conclusions. Hiplop's my strongest townread so far. Sure, that's not very strong, more like 60%, but it's still something.

I get your overall gist, but what do you mean by 60%? I'm assuming it's not that there's a 60% chance he's town and 40% chance he's scum.

If he didn't [see Belisarius' first vote], he's been skim reading. I can see a veteran town player being slightly careless on day 1, especially in a newbie game. I have a hard time seeing scum-hiplop doing the same, since it's a much greater risk for him.

The skim-reading scum I mentioned before was an SE with several thousand posts. It shouldn't happen, but it sure seems to. (I haven't read hiplop's posts to know his playstyle.)

Later, the same process is at play. Belisarius changes his vote to you and hiplop does the same at once.
Town-hiplop reason: finally noticed Belisarius was actually taking part in RVS. Therefore, no more reason to suspect him for the moment. And he's also applying pressure on someone. Why not help him and get a read on this Kim guy?

Something like this is probably what happened, but people need to be called out on changing their vote without comment. I think that not doing so makes the game too easy for scum.

[Kim]

Welcome, new people!

While I'm up (most of the time I can sleep through my phone vibrating when it gets this thread's subscription email, but not tonight, apparently)...

UNVOTE: hiplop for the reasons mentioned by Belisarius, Witch_Doctor, and him. Nobody else seems worthy of a vote at this hour.

[Kim]

EBWOP (edit by way of post): "deserves," not "seems worthy of."

[Kim]

(Seriousness level: 3/5. I would not have put you at L-1 at this time.)

In my opinion putting serious measurements on your vote is something that scum would do. Let me explain. So scum don't want to be noticed right? How can they reduce the impact of their votes? Maybe by putting a serious meter on their vote (3/5, the epitome of middle ground) so as to soften the impact of a vote?

I see how you could see things that way, but the denominator was based on the number of votes we need to lynch and the numerator was based on that minus 2 (since I wouldn't have put him at L-1). After a little bit of thought, though, it seems to me there are really just 3 levels of seriousness: RVS votes, votes where you're ready to lynch the player right then and there, and everything else. My vote fell in the latter category.

@

Kim

: We couldn't disagree more in our conclusions. Hiplop's my strongest townread so far. Sure, that's not very strong, more like 60%, but it's still something. So I'm wary of posts like:

I think that hiplop's actions are worthy of pressure.

Allow me to explain. Either hiplop saw Belisarius' first vote or he didn't.
[ . . . ]
Later, the same process is at play. Belisarius changes his vote to you and hiplop does the same at once.
[ . . . ]
Again, either hiplop's town or stupid. And I'd rather bet our IC is not stupid.

im not toally convinced the scum reason is impossible, and I see it as likely since he never actually explained reasoning for it, and then unlynched when called out for it. The paragraph about skim reading is WIFOM.

It seems to me like you're saying that it's likely hiplop changed his vote for scum reasons. Is that correct? If so, why did you say that he "doesn't seem townie or scummy" at the end of that post?

Re: early readlists: I see both sides to the issue, now that it's been raised. This is the first time I've heard complaints about their existence, though. The newbie game I subbed into had 3 readlists published by page 3. (However, the IC was having severe IRL problems and the SEs were both scum, so....) The first two readlists in my other newbie game weren't published until page 5 and 7, so the issue didn't come up.

[Kim]

@Some Random Mafia Player

:

1) How much experience do you have playing Mafia?

2)

@

Kim

: We couldn't disagree more in our conclusions. Hiplop's my strongest townread so far. Sure, that's not very strong, more like 60%, but it's still something. So I'm wary of posts like:

I think that hiplop's actions are worthy of pressure.

Allow me to explain. Either hiplop saw Belisarius' first vote or he didn't.
[ . . . ]
Later, the same process is at play. Belisarius changes his vote to you and hiplop does the same at once.
[ . . . ]
Again, either hiplop's town or stupid. And I'd rather bet our IC is not stupid.

im not toally convinced the scum reason is impossible, and I see it as likely since he never actually explained reasoning for it, and then unlynched when called out for it. The paragraph about skim reading is WIFOM.

It seems to me like you're saying that it's likely hiplop changed his vote for scum reasons. Is that correct? If so, why did you say that he "doesn't seem townie or scummy" at the end of that post?

[Kim]

^ FWIW, I didn't perceive hiplop's vote as a gambit (in the sense of giving up something to gain something else) when I posted. I just thought it was an oversight on his part.

[Kim]

@

Kim

: We couldn't disagree more in our conclusions. Hiplop's my strongest townread so far. Sure, that's not very strong, more like 60%, but it's still something. So I'm wary of posts like:

I think that hiplop's actions are worthy of pressure.

Allow me to explain. Either hiplop saw Belisarius' first vote or he didn't.
[ . . . ]
Later, the same process is at play. Belisarius changes his vote to you and hiplop does the same at once.
[ . . . ]
Again, either hiplop's town or stupid. And I'd rather bet our IC is not stupid.

im not toally convinced the scum reason is impossible, and I see it as likely since he never actually explained reasoning for it, and then unlynched when called out for it. The paragraph about skim reading is WIFOM.

It seems to me like you're saying that it's likely hiplop changed his vote for scum reasons. Is that correct? If so, why did you say that he "doesn't seem townie or scummy" at the end of that post?

2. because I dont lynch someone based on 1 minor thing, in smudgers case he intentionally lied to try to push my lynch, there is no possible reason for doing it as town, there is decent reason for you to do it as town. Also, but that being the 1 scummy thing he did doesen't mean I can call him scum for sure, I can call smudger scum as intentionally lying to push someones lynch I have never seen someone do, and can't think of any reason for a townie to be doing so.

I'm not interested in the lack of a vote on hiplop; I'm interested about your first saying "im not toally convinced the scum reason is impossible, and I see it as likely since he never actually explained reasoning for it, and then unlynched when called out for it (69)" and then not mentioning that in your readlist. I see no other way to read your quote than you think hiplop's actions were scummy, if not actually made by scum. What exactly were you trying to say?

[Kim]

Short version: I'm not convinced SRMP is scum.

Reasoning: I've never played chat mafia, but from what I've heard secondhand in the earlier newbie games I've played, I think SRMP's votes on Bluebird and me (specifically, their voting with little evidence with a desire to talk about it + their quick switch) can be explained by their experience with that. I've heard that votes flow much more freely in those games. It also explains their stream-of-consciousness style of posting and the lack of clarity in some (many?) of their posts.

My dual-iso of SRMP and Smudger I did last night was focused more on seeing whether SRMP had a case on Smudger and, if not, whether SRMP's case was scummy. I came up with negative answers to both questions. I need to reread to see if Smudger got any new reactions from SRMP; on first look (and the semi-look that I made while rereading), I didn't think he did -- but WH, at least, seems to think otherwise.

(BTW, this is the first chance I've had to post since late last night (UTC-6).)

[Kim]

(I get pulled away from the computer often when I'm at work. I started this post before Belisarius' 181, but it's likely moot now.)

Spoiler: Reply to WH's 179

But just from reading the thread when he arrived, he must have noticed that's not the way we're playing. It could be culture shock, but even if this explains his posts' disorganization, I don't think it also explains his inconsistent, defensive playstyle.

Agreed with the last part -- the defensiveness seems more like a newbie thing, but if he's* got experience in chat mafia, it doesn't seem like that would be an issue.

*Is SRMP a "he"? I might have overlooked where they said that; anyway, I'm going to assume they are for the rest of this post, at any rate.

However, it's possible that he's just trying to play in the way that seems natural to him. I know some people have viewed my posts as too calculated and viewed that as scummy in pretty much every game I've played so far.

What I got from the SRMP-Smudger fight boils down to "Smudger pressures SRMP to get a reaction, SRMP freaks and makes a very unconvincing case on Smudger". Not damning by itself, but part of an overall behavior that is, at least, anti-town.

I need to start hydra-ing so I can talk with other people about stuff like that. For now, suffice it to say that I disagree with some of that.

While Bluebird and AzoriuSenate don't show up: let's suppose you stay unconvinced. Who do you want lynched today? Belisarius (who isn't convinced either) wants either you or Bluebird. What do you suggest?

I will say that SMRP is the scummiest player to me, but I'd only put the probability that he's scum at around 40 or 45 percent. I guess that's about 20 or 27 on your scum meter. If Plotinus secretly PM'd me and said SMRP was town, I'm not sure where my vote would go. Assuming nothing else of note happened until the deadline (

at which time I'll be unavailable, BTW

), I'd be okay with voting for whichever null player has the most votes -- I would try to be as open as possible about the fact that that was what I was doing, so hopefully I wouldn't be viewed as scummy for doing so.

@AzoriusSenate

: Are you really going to FOS me for not being convinced a theoretical town!SRMP is scum? That seems backwards. I'd assume you would FOS me (or worse) if he flipped scum, so you could save some time and just FOS me now if 188 is accurate. (I'm leaving out the case where we don't lynch SMRP, but I don't see that happening now.)

[Kim]

The reason I would FOS you if he flips town is very simple and i'm starting to fos you more for not really thinking about it. More than likely SMRP is going to be lynched today so at this point it would be a good time for scum to "townread" SMRP if he actually is town. This gives scum towncred when he flips town. I don't think an actual townie would speak up to randomly defend someone who is likely to be lynched unless they are CERTAIN they are town.

It wasn't random -- Witch_Doctor explicitly asked for my thoughts on him in 177. I had a few minutes to post, so I did.

@

Kim, Bluebird, AzoriuSenate

, what about you? Convinced or not? If convinced, please state intent to hammer, but

don't vote before he has a chance to claim

, please.

[Kim]

@hiplop as IC:

What normally happens when the person to be hammered just disappears? I've got a feeling that SRMP won't be back. Is there a time when it's okay to hammer, or should we wait 3 more days to get a sub for him?

[Kim]

Question for most anybody on the SMRP wagon: Did you find their posts about readlists (94, 98, the first couple of paragraphs of 101, 104, and 106) suspicious?

[Kim]

@ Kim,

now that SRMP has flipped town what do you think? considering you didn't consider him scum.....

and if you didn't think he was scum who did you think was scum at the time, or still think is scum? considering you did not have a vote in place and you really only voted twice, once in RVS for me and once for Hiplop?

I didn't think SMRP was scum, but he was my best guess for scum. (I mentioned it in 189, but it was spoilered.) If I start with the assumption that you're scum, your conversation with SMRP makes a lot more sense to me. However, that's pretty much the definition of confirmation bias. One problem I've had with your posts is that I tend to read them way early in the morning, think about what they say while I'm at work, come up to a conclusion, and then reread it when I get home and see something that I totally missed that invalidates my argument.

FYI (and everyone else's), I'll be limited to phone posts for the next 40-44 hours or so -- my mom's having surgery tomorrow and I'm taking a couple of days off to help her out during recovery. I don't need to take V/LA, but original research and deep reads will have to wait for a couple of days.

[Kim]

Thanks -- fortunately it's just cataract surgery, so it's not a life or death kind of thing. She'll just need some rest and eye drops.

[Kim]

Thanks for the well-wishes for my mom, everyone! Everything went great. This surgery was on her stronger eye, so she's not seeing quite as well as she was at this point when she had the surgery on her other eye, but that was to be expected. Everything should be A-OK in the next few days.

I've checked everyone's iso and tried to reread (although it's hard to look at everything with fresh eyes) in the past couple of days. I don't think what I found is too interesting -- Witch_Hunter seems town, everyone else seems null-ish.

I see Bluebird as null, and maybe a tiny bit town -- her post 6 strikes me as being perplexed by Belisarius' "By the command of Shakespeare's shade!" and not truly defensive. OMGUS votes in RVS are fine by me. The wiki part of her case on Smudger seems debunked (although it would give a new meaning to his post 13), but doing the research seems like a step that newbie scum would be unlikely to make.

To me, Smudger's case on SRMP was built on a foundation of misreading SRMP's post 80 as a reply to him (Smudger) instead of hiplop. I've spent probably most of my time and energy in this game trying to figure out (1) SRMP's posts in general, and (2) whether a scum Smudger would go through all that work. My newbie gut says that this is dishonest by Smudger and therefore scum, but Belisarius makes a good point that a scum Smudger wouldn't want to break up the hiplop-WH-Smudger "team" that appeared to develop in post 132. I have no rebuttal to that. (For what it's worth, I don't agree with SRMP's case on Smudger -- it just seems to be yet another misunderstanding, as SRMP seems to think "tunneling" means that you're voting for someone.)

Re: AzoriusSenate vs. Belisarius: No comment.

[Kim]

Kim what would you think of two players who appear to use the same terms of phrase or mention a particular observation? Almost as if one is parroting the other?

I found this quote on the wiki when searching to see if parroting might have a more technical Mafia definition than the normal English usage: "Parroting is not a scumtell; it's more of a 'I-just-read-the-thread-tell.'" It was on the user page of dopog, so it's not official or consensus thought or anything like that, but I think it's true. If you want something in my own words that'd be longer and harder to understand (coincidentally, that's a good reason to use other people's phrasing), I could probably oblige.

[Kim]

Kim who are your top three lynch candidates and why?

Top four candidates are easy, via process of elimination: you, Belisarius, AzoriusSenate, and Bluebird. Since last I posted, MrCurlyNoodles has shown both understanding of what's been happening in the game and an ability to adjust his thoughts when presented with new information (or new to him, at least).

Out of those four, as of now I think I'd put you as fourth-scummiest (or third-towniest, whichever you prefer). I probably have too much of a bias towards open-minded players, but you seem to be reading, rereading, and thinking about the game. Yay you!

These last three aren't in any particular order:

I've seen both town and scum tunnel on players before, but I haven't figured out how to tell the different alignments apart. AS's tunnel on Bel seems farfetched -- I particularly disliked 303. However, is 305 frustrated town? It feels like it to me, but I know I don't have the experience/skill/whatever to say so for sure.

Bluebird's lurking has moved her to null for me. I'm not sure it's scum-motivated lurking, but I can't rule it out. More answers/thoughts from her will hopefully help.

Belisarius' "trust me" argument for lynching me wasn't very townie, but he's dropped that now. I assume that he hasn't seen anything that changed his mind; at least he's consistent. My responses to his rationale for voting against me are in 53 and 154.

at least Kim isn't neglecting his defense, since he isn't actually being accused of anything.

A small nugget of defense on my part: hiplop had me as his second-highest townread when he was NKed. All other things being equal, scum!Kim would have kept him alive.

[Kim]

Can I have your opinion about something I posted a while ago?
Post 279, concerning Bluebird:

Besides that, her ISO is strange. Too passive, answers questions but doesn't ask them nor does much that feels like she is actually involved in the game.

I think that's a fair assessment by you. Passivity isn't pro-town, but it doesn't really ping my scumdar because that's how I naturally act. (I should mention that the person I've seen act the most like Bluebird turned out to be scum.) I don't think I have the standing to encourage action from others, but I'd obviously like to see it.

Also, +1 to MrCurlyNoodles' 341 re: AzoriusSenate.

[Kim]

oh Ok. you never asked me why I asked that question ["Kim what would you think of two players who appear to use the same terms of phrase or mention a particular observation? Almost as if one is parroting the other?"]? anyway I did because of this ....

Every time* I've played with a town Smudger, he's subbed out. He hasn't subbed out of this game. Therefore, he's scum. Easy peasy!

As I have stated earlier, I scumread you because your stats indicate that you subbed out of every game that you were town, one entry notwithstanding. Also,

your

conversation with SRMP was what convinced us to lynch.

My post was an RVS joke, with the asterisk indicating I was using one game as a basis. That could have been the post that convinced her to check your history; if it was, I wouldn't view it as suspicious. She also used that terminology in 199 in the "My Opinions" spoiler.

Short version: I'm not convinced SRMP is scum.

I am not convinced SRMP is mafia

I thought some more about this just now and realized Bluebird and I are both answering the same question and echoing its wording (italicizing mine, bolding in original):

@

Kim, Bluebird, AzoriuSenate

, what about you?

Convinced

or not? If

convinced

, please state intent to hammer, but

don't vote before he has a chance to claim

, please.

Neither of these pairs strike me as abnormal. I stand by my earlier thoughts in 298.

[Kim]

@ Smudger

: What's with the change of mind? Is there a method to AzoriusSenate's madness after all, or do you just want to see where this goes?

I think we should go with it

Let's.

VOTE: Belisarius

*** L-1 ***

[Kim]

Azorius was a

tracker

? I was like 99% sure he was a cop who investigated me, got a Town result, and switched from me to Bel based on Bel's case on me. That was all I could think of that explained both his Day 1 and Day 2 posts.

I was anticipating being all but confirmed town, so I'll need a little time to figure out how best to act. (Also, I'll need sleep, which I'll try to get after this post.)

[Kim]

No time to reply to 369 right now. Just wanted to throw out a couple of thoughts I had getting ready for work:

1) At the end of D1, AS wanted me lynched and presumably had a "heavy FOS" on me. He never mentioned me on D2 until 320, "I'd like to add that [Belisarius'] interaction with Kim leads me to believe Kim is pretty solid town." That switch with no in-depth explanation plus his PR claim (of sorts) led me to think he had gotten a town read on me and was just being aggressive against Bel. Obviously, he didn't and wasn't.

2) We either have a 1SBP or a Doctor on the team. Scum doesn't have the numbers to successfully counterclaim today, but will after a mislynch. If we have a doctor, they've got about an 8% chance of earning us an extra lynch. I think the chances we have a doctor are slim, based on the lack of protection of some pretty obvious targets. Why shouldn't we get them to claim to get a confirmed town?

P-edit:

Smudger

, you seem to be against a doctor coming out. What about a 1SBP?

[Kim]

Pseudo-EBWOP, since I forgot to mention it:

So i've reread D1 and looking at hiplops post coming from confirmed town and I think he might have been killed because he was the only one scumreading Belisarius.

this also would, in hindsight, direct you to think what? Its clear to me it directed Az to look at Bel N1...

AS's post was ~24 hours after his previous D2 post. Pre-flip, I thought he had done the reread then and not during N1. Post-flip, you're right.

[Kim]

No time to reply to 369 right now. Just wanted to throw out a couple of thoughts I had getting ready for work:

1) At the end of D1, AS wanted me lynched and presumably had a "heavy FOS" on me. He never mentioned me on D2 until 320, "I'd like to add that [Belisarius'] interaction with Kim leads me to believe Kim is pretty solid town." That switch with no in-depth explanation plus his PR claim (of sorts) led me to think he had gotten a town read on me and was just being aggressive against Bel. Obviously, he didn't and wasn't.

2) We either have a 1SBP or a Doctor on the team. Scum doesn't have the numbers to successfully counterclaim today, but will after a mislynch. If we have a doctor, they've got about an 8% chance of earning us an extra lynch. I think the chances we have a doctor are slim, based on the lack of protection of some pretty obvious targets. Why shouldn't we get them to claim to get a confirmed town?

P-edit:

Smudger

, you seem to be against a doctor coming out. What about a 1SBP?

On the road to work, I realized my math in the Doctor section of part 2 was bad. I forgot to take lynches into account. Please ignore that. Don't claim if you're a doctor.

I'll reply in full to Smudger tonight, starting to type around 0130 UTC.

[Kim]

@

MrCurlyNoodles

, @

Bluebird

: Were you ready to vote for and/or hammer Bel?

@

Witch_Doctor

: Why did you lynch without giving MCN and Blue a chance to comment on what was happening?

[Kim]

I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:

@ Kim:

If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?

My (flawed) thought process went something like this:

• "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
  
• "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
  Why
  is Smudger so sure?)
  
• "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
  
• "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*

[Kim]

thats a good question Curly and its all to do with perception of how things have transpired. I really didn't have much of a case on Kim other than gut and possibly a subconscious lean based on my misguided belief that Bel was town, until of course I grabbed hold of what Az was in fact saying end of D2.

so let us go back in time, after the RVS D1 the first vote Bel threw out was on Kim and he in fact stated it was serious vote, remember this?

Spoiler:

Bel (can I call you Bel?) shouldn't need my help defending himself

No, I don't

UNVOTE: bluebird

VOTE: Kim

Serious vote.

now commonly scum will attempt to distance themselves from each other early in a game, and Bel is an experienced player, so when I put all the pieces together this begins to stand out. You could argue it was just a vote but then this sticks out. Its Bels reason to vote Kim,

Spoiler:

I'm not voting Kim for white knighting, per se. I'm voting him for saying that he thought something might come from hiplop's vote on me, while trying to interfere with it by pooh-poohing it.

I'm also not happy about Kim pointing out "factually incorrect grounds", but that's mainly because I wanted to see how long it would take hiplop to realise it on his own.

it's pretty weak

and then this, this is a post to throw us all off Kim,

Spoiler:

I'm not getting a Kim lynch today, am I?

I find the Smudger/SRMP interaction intriguing, but I'm not prepared to commit a vote at this time.

I'd like to hear more from Azorious and Noodles. You two are big fat question marks for me, and that makes me nervous.

Witch_Hunter didn't seem to share your view that Bel's post threw everyone else off of me. His next post had a p-edit directed at Bel asking him to explain his desire to lynch me. Bel's next post had him right back on my wagon:

Spoiler:

P-edit: @ Belisarius: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?

His interference with a perceived gambit by hiplop makes no sense from a town perspective, but could come from scum trying to manipulate me while at the same time making a show of standing up to the IC.

There's also something else right on the tip of my tongue, but I've been trying to draw it out for days and it's being a stubborn git.

I said the two people I currently want lynched are blue and kim. Do you have any questions for me? I feel like i've made it pretty clear my alignment already but i'm happy to ease your mind. Fire away.

I like both of those lynches myself, although Bluebird less, since defensiveness is the only angle on it.

now you remember the line about there was something about Kim that made Bel think he was scum, but he couldn't put his finger on it? he stated it early D1 then again here

Spoiler:

FMPOV, nothing has changed since Yesterday. I can't pull any useful information from the SRMP lynch since it was basically unanimous.

I still want to lynch either Kim or Bluebird, and my brain's still being an asshole about letting me remember what it was that made me so sure Kim's scum.

well I pushed him on it and he still couldn't remember, do you know what I now think the answer to that question from Bel was?

[It's because they share day talk]

(I moved the answer up here.) As a whole, I obviously can't say why Bel posted what he did. I will say that it doesn't fit the distancing I've seen in my other newbie games.

Spoiler: Details on those games; check my wiki for game links

The first game had the two SEs get into an argument about whether some other player's actions were something newbie scum would do and a misunderstanding that arose from that that ended up in mutual votes and an eventual cooldown. The other was a scum SE starting to rant about how the other SE was scum (he wasn't) and the inactivity of the game (it was), eventually getting profane, and having the actual lurker scumbuddy reply "seriously dude, calm down. The yelling makes you seem desperate for a lynch." The scum SE replied "Glad that you had a lot to say."

There definitely wasn't any hyper-fixated, "Furthermore, I consider that Kim must be lynched" kind of stuff.

anyway, there was something else about Kim that bugged me and it was to do with his view on SRMP. he didn't vote SRMP and even stated that he felt he was town, now why would that be a scum tell. Well, Kim has a few games under his belt and I think he realizes the value as scum to throw people off his scent by scoring town points. whats the best way of doing that? Stating someone who is town, because as Scum you would know that, is town even when their play is scummy and erratic enough to have the majority of players voting them, in fact he didnt even have a vote in place at the time, I questioned him on it, here

Spoiler:

@ Kim,

now that SRMP has flipped town what do you think? considering you didn't consider him scum.....

and if you didn't think he was scum who did you think was scum at the time, or still think is scum? considering you did not have a vote in place and you really only voted twice, once in RVS for me and once for Hiplop?

You did ask me. I had already answered in post 189, as you quote below. Is there some better way for me to answer if Player X directly asks me if I think Player Y is scum, assuming that I don't think Y is scum?

look at his votes he has stayed away from the main candidates and has voted town players, Hiplop who is dead and me, yes I am town and yes I know you have no way of knowing that, but I am.

Am I really scummy for voting for you in RVS? Really?

I think I've explained my hiplop vote well enough by now. (hiplop seemed to think so, at any rate.) By the way, if hiplop and I were both scum, our exchange around our mutual votes would have been a good example of the kind of distancing I've seen in games.

His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today. he never even questioned me as to why he just went ahead and hammered.

1) I didn't hammer Bel. That was WH.
2) I didn't question you because I was able to figure out that you thought AS had a good reason for voting for Bel. (I didn't think about exactly what your reason was, though. That could have saved me all this typing.)

then there is this from AzoriusSenate

Spoiler:

(I get pulled away from the computer often when I'm at work. I started this post before Belisarius' 181, but it's likely moot now.)

But just from reading the thread when he arrived, he must have noticed that's not the way we're playing. It could be culture shock, but even if this explains his posts' disorganization, I don't think it also explains his inconsistent, defensive playstyle.

Agreed with the last part -- the defensiveness seems more like a newbie thing, but if he's* got experience in chat mafia, it doesn't seem like that would be an issue.

*Is SRMP a "he"? I might have overlooked where they said that; anyway, I'm going to assume they are for the rest of this post, at any rate.

However, it's possible that he's just trying to play in the way that seems natural to him. I know some people have viewed my posts as too calculated and viewed that as scummy in pretty much every game I've played so far.

What I got from the SRMP-Smudger fight boils down to "Smudger pressures SRMP to get a reaction, SRMP freaks and makes a very unconvincing case on Smudger". Not damning by itself, but part of an overall behavior that is, at least, anti-town.

I need to start hydra-ing so I can talk with other people about stuff like that. For now, suffice it to say that I disagree with some of that.

While Bluebird and AzoriuSenate don't show up: let's suppose you stay unconvinced. Who do you want lynched today? Belisarius (who isn't convinced either) wants either you or Bluebird. What do you suggest?

I will say that SMRP is the scummiest player to me, but I'd only put the probability that he's scum at around 40 or 45 percent. I guess that's about 20 or 27 on your scum meter. If Plotinus secretly PM'd me and said SMRP was town, I'm not sure where my vote would go. Assuming nothing else of note happened until the deadline (

at which time I'll be unavailable, BTW

), I'd be okay with voting for whichever null player has the most votes -- I would try to be as open as possible about the fact that that was what I was doing, so hopefully I wouldn't be viewed as scummy for doing so.

@AzoriusSenate

: Are you really going to FOS me for not being convinced a theoretical town!SRMP is scum? That seems backwards. I'd assume you would FOS me (or worse) if he flipped scum, so you could save some time and just FOS me now if 188 is accurate. (I'm leaving out the case where we don't lynch SMRP, but I don't see that happening now.)

The reason I would FOS you if he flips town is very simple and i'm starting to fos you more for not really thinking about it. More than likely SMRP is going to be lynched today so at this point it would be a good time for scum to "townread" SMRP if he actually is town. This gives scum towncred when he flips town. I don't think an actual townie would speak up to randomly defend someone who is likely to be lynched unless they are CERTAIN they are town.

Again, it wasn't random -- WH asked Bluebird and me our opinions on SRMP.

Spoiler:

The reason I would FOS you if he flips town is very simple and i'm starting to fos you more for not really thinking about it. More than likely SMRP is going to be lynched today so at this point it would be a good time for scum to "townread" SMRP if he actually is town. This gives scum towncred when he flips town. I don't think an actual townie would speak up to randomly defend someone who is likely to be lynched unless they are CERTAIN they are town.

It wasn't random -- Witch_Doctor explicitly asked for my thoughts on him in 177. I had a few minutes to post, so I did.

@

Kim, Bluebird, AzoriuSenate

, what about you? Convinced or not? If convinced, please state intent to hammer, but

don't vote before he has a chance to claim

, please.

and that brings us full circle to this

Spoiler:

I'm a VT.

Scumteam stands as Kim and Bluebird. Curly's play today is town.

what do you get when reading this? bearing in mind everything else I have outlined?

I don't expect people to think that his final accusation here clears me -- I'd expect there to be (at least, but probably just) one true statement in there. (I happen to think that it's "Curly's play today is town.")

and then of course there is his opening post here D3

Spoiler:

Azorius was a

tracker

? I was like 99% sure he was a cop who investigated me, got a Town result, and switched from me to Bel based on Bel's case on me. That was all I could think of that explained both his Day 1 and Day 2 posts.

I was anticipating being all but confirmed town, so I'll need a little time to figure out how best to act. (Also, I'll need sleep, which I'll try to get after this post.)

that just screams scum

Forgive me if I don't take your word for it. There were a few other comments you made in other posts that I wanted to discuss (including a question I missed, I think) -- I'll get to those after a short break.

[Kim]

P-edit: Smudger, you seem to be against a doctor coming out. What about a 1SBP?

what good is there for a doc to out now? I don't see any reason for Doc to out, why would you want him to out?

But in the context of my thoughts on Az the subject of a doctor is relevant a 1SBP is not..... are you claiming that role?

The thoughts about a 1SBP are unrelated to the thoughts about AS. 376 was prompted by the fact that with 4 town and 1 scum, the scum will lose if they falsely claim or counterclaim a town power role.

I am neither confirming nor denying that I am the 1SBP. I am neither confirming nor denying that I am VT. I didn't mean to, but I guess I implied that I am not the doctor in that post. (That's what happens when I post in a hurry.) I am confirming that I am town.

t the end of D1, AS wanted me lynched and presumably had a "heavy FOS" on me. He never mentioned me on D2 until 320, "I'd like to add that [Belisarius'] interaction with Kim leads me to believe Kim is pretty solid town." That switch with no in-depth explanation plus his PR claim (of sorts) led me to think he had gotten a town read on me and was just being aggressive against Bel. Obviously, he didn't and wasn't.

already discounted this, he had a real confirmed target, Bel... you remained his FOS unless of course you can point to where he dropped that FOS on you

He might still think I was suspicious for what I did -- he never replied to my second response -- but he did also say I'm behind you and WH in his lynch list in 337.

based on the lack of protection of some pretty obvious targets. Why shouldn't we get them to claim to get a confirmed town?

which obvious targets this does not make sense

hiplop, the universally-town-read IC, on Day 1. AzoriusSenate, the power role of some sort, on Day 2. (Maybe the latter wasn't quite as obvious as I thought.)

[Kim]

I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:

@ Kim:

If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?

My (flawed) thought process went something like this:

• "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
  
• "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
  Why
  is Smudger so sure?)
  
• "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
  
• "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*

Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

VOTE: Kim

That puts me at L-1, by the way.

State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.

Which step is where my logic breaks down?

Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.

[Kim]

Kim. All parts create the whole, the interconnecting pieces I have highlighted complete the case on you. Your rebuttals don't convince me you are town at all. You have already claimed so it's up to bluebird or curly to hammer

Where did I claim? (Unless you're saying something like "Your posts (well, Bel's posts) say you're scum.") You're wrong. You've got 13 days to figure that out. What's the rush?

Honestly I'm not convinced Kim's scum. His rebuttal seems fairly legit to me. On the other hand Smudger and Witch have been the most town out of those who are still alive and have clearly seen things I have not in the past. The only situation I see Kim not being scum is if Bel and Smudger realized super early on that Azorius was onto them and so Smudger purposefully threw Bel under the bus. That seems like it'd be pretty hard to pull off though, and honestly the only reason I'm even considering it is cause they're the two SEs. All of this being said, at this point Smudger and Witch have been towny and right enough times that I trust enough to go along with them. And if I'm wrong it'll probably be pretty clear tomorrow who the maf is

@Kim

Stating intent to hammer. Please claim and all that stuff.

I am a Vanilla Townie.

I really wanted to wait until a reasonable time my time (it's 04:40 as I type this; my alarm goes off in 4 hours) to type this, but I can't sleep now.

I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:

Spoiler:

I'd be hesitant to even consider Witch, he was towny as fuck Yesterday, and I doubt scum-Witch would permit the hiplop kill after the way he, hip, and Smudger had their heads together yesterday. A 3-man "townbloc" containing scum would be a hell of a powerful tool with 4 needed to lynch...hell, I'd probably fall in with them if they worked together today like they did yesterday, and then scum would effectively control the lynch D2.

You won't convince me that Smudger is scum this game. I've tried to fake the kind of passion that was behind his attack on SRMP yesterday and it's not easy. I can't do it.

A universal townread--and the IC in a newbie game to boot--died N1. This is not surprising as any scum except maybe Witch or Smudger would make that kill in order to remove an unlynchable player from the game. Saying that I in particular would have special reason to ice hiplop but NOBODY ELSE WOULD EVER DO THAT is so illogical I can't even wrap my head around the kind of thought process that could possibly lead someone to that conclusion. I can't respond to that any more than I could to an argument that goes "Lynch Beli, the leprechaun told me to!"

Oh? Working out that Smudger or Witch wouldn't have broken up a faux-townbloc by killing hiplop isn't trying to figure out the game? Explain this logic in baby talk.

He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.

The rest of my readlist, with rough scum probabilities:

MrCurlyNoodles, 22.5% -- also played well, but his response to AS's claim could be scum defending scum; a similar reaction is what broke open the Open game Smudger and I subbed out of (counterpoint: I said the same thing, and I'm town)

Bluebird, 7.5% -- really still null, but some other people look bad

Smudger, 2.5% -- maybe MCN's comment above is right, but I doubt it

VOTE: Witch_Hunter

Now I lay me down to sleep, etc., etc.

[Kim]

Kim in your post 402 you basically claim... you state you are not any PR then you state you are town. If that is not a claim, what is?

I assume you're referring to this:

I am neither confirming nor denying that I am the 1SBP. I am neither confirming nor denying that I am VT. I didn't mean to, but I guess I implied that I am not the doctor in that post. (That's what happens when I post in a hurry.) I am confirming that I am town.

I thought "neither confirm(ing) not deny(ing)" was a well-known turn of phrase, but I just looked it up -- it's an Americanism from the Cold War that you could very easily not be familiar with. Knowing that, I would have rephrased that paragraph. This is what I was trying to say:

"I am neither confirming nor denying that I am the 1SBP." can be broken down into two parts: "I am not confirming that I am the 1SBP." and "I am not denying that I am the 1SBP." The latter phrase is somewhat of a double negative, but it has a different meaning than "I am confirming that I am the 1SBP."

My second sentence was the same, except it referred to my status as a Vanilla Townie (not a power role).

In the future, I'll respond to similar questions with a simpler "I'm not claiming 1SBP now. I'm not claiming VT now."

[Kim]

I''ve got a few minutes at a PC that doesn't block ms.net right now -- I'll try to get to as much stuff as I can. I'd appreciate it if you didn't lynch me for about 10 or so hours, though.

Spoiler:

I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:

@ Kim:

If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?

My (flawed) thought process went something like this:

• "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
  
• "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
  Why
  is Smudger so sure?)
  
• "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
  
• "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*

Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

VOTE: Kim

That puts me at L-1, by the way.

State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.

Which step is where my logic breaks down?

Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.

You admitted the weak point yourself: "(What I didn't think of, but should have:

Why

is Smudger so sure?)"
Basically, it doesn't fit your fondness for logic. You've been extremely cautious with your vote for the entire game, then suddenly join the Belisarius wagon without thinking a crucial detail?

Unfortunately, a fondness for logic doesn't mean I have perfect logic. Also, I didn't think knowing why Smudger thought AS was a power role wasn't as important as it was that he was making a play that he wouldn't if he were scum. Having two people you think are town think someone else is scum is apparently enough for MrCurlyNoodles to state intent to hammer -- why wouldn't it have been enough for me to just put Bel at L-1? (There may have been some subconscious OMGUS on my part, too.)

I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:
[...]
He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.

Nice try. It's flattering to see this depiction of me as a diabolical mastermind of sorts. Alas, it happens to be untrue.
1) The early hammer was a calculated risk. In hindsight, it didn't work, sure. But would it have been townier to wait, then risk MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird asking "Why are you all voting for Belisarius?" and either having no answer or having to expose AzoriusSenate after his effort not to claim PR?

If you had decided to quickhammer Bel because an investigator had gotten a scum result from him, it would have been better not to wait for him to claim at all. You'd still have to explain your actions like you are today, but scum could have actually been caught off guard.

2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.

He was lynched because AS tracked him. If someone else had realized AS was softclaiming, Bel would have been just as dead. (I'm not intentionally putting this in small font; phpBB keeps inserting a second "/quote" tag after that last quote.)

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[Kim]

By the way, the wiki agrees with my reasoning to hammer yesterday:

A quicklynch, as its name implies, is a lynch whose wagon builds in a relatively short amount of time.
Reckless Towns can do this on their own, of course, and the practice is frequently criticized for wasting a Day's worth of information.

However, there are pro-Town reasons to do this - for instance, if a Cop claims an incriminating result on someone, the best thing to do is quicklynch the incriminated player so as to minimize the amount of information that the scum get when deciding what to do that Night.

When driven by scum, it is an extended quickhammer.

Like I said, I think that's referring to when you don't wait for the lynchee to claim.

[Kim]

So is this when I hammer? Or should I wait for Bluebird's opinion etc.?

Others have said to wait for Bluebird. However, I'd add that since the game will be over if I turn up scum, you don't need to worry about what your actions will be in case I do flip scum. (Protip: I won't.) Therefore, I don't think it would hurt to take the time to think about what a townflip for me would mean to you and your opinion of the others.

[Kim]

Kim. I know you said you will neither confirm or deny. This meant to me that you were claiming VT and that's how I read your post. As the last scum that's what is the best fake claim for the last scum to make in a game where you are unsure of what they remaining town PR is.

How did you interpret the fact that I would neither confirm nor deny VT? Also, I've already said that a fake PR claim by scum toDay would be a guaranteed loss once the real PR counterclaims, regardless of whether the scum guess the role we actually have correctly.

[Kim]

EBWOP: I was just about to ask if someone could fix my 418. Thanks, Plotinus!

[Kim]

P.S. The message to MrCurlyNoodles was what I really wanted to say before a lynch. I'm willing to defend myself until the deadline, but I've said all I have to say for now.

[Kim]

Kim. Because you are the last scum.

Therefore your aim is to stay alive

To do that you have to claim then convince everyone you are not scum

The claim has to be believable

Thus it would be suicidal for the last scum. One who has a case against him which makes sense. To claim anything other that VT. Especially in an open game.

Thus you make a statement such as you did, which is in fact another attempt to look town by stating "I will neither confirm or deny". I read between the lines, you were lining up a VT claim. So don't try to say you were not, you were, because you did.

In other words, you said that I claimed because you think I'm scum. (That's your first step in your reasoning.) I asked you if that's why you were saying so in 408. You could have saved me a lot of time if you had just said so back then.

[Kim]

I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

This is why I shouldn't post at 4:30 in the morning. If Bel and WH are scum, there's no risk of having awkward, possibly telling reactions from MCN and Blue because they're town by default. So that's not why WH did it. (It might have not been the best move for town if WH is town, but it didn't have scum motivation.)

However: Let's look at the timeline of the posts at the end of Day 2, 2016-01-25. (That was a Monday, as you might remember if you're better about days of the week than I am.) All times UTC-6 (North American Central).

03:21: post 350, Smudger votes for Bel
06:57: post 352, WH questions Smudger about Smudger's vote
07:06: post 353, Smudger replies "I think we should go with it"
11:58: post 356, I vote for Bel
12:14: post 357, WH intends to hammer
14:31: post 358, Bel claims VT
14:48: post 359, WH hammers

WH said in 389 that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.

My hypothesis is that he was waiting to vote until Bel was put at L-1. In 389, WH said he wanted to vote as fast as possible. That was 17 minutes after Bel's claim, which is reasonable for ASAP -- it seems like the thread subscription emails get bogged down during North American work hours and unless you're using IMAP, you're not checking your mail all the time. However, it took him 16 minutes to intend to hammer after I voted.

If he was waiting, why would he do that? I don't see a town reason for doing so, but a scum reason could be that he and Bel thought AS might have had an investigative result on Bel. They decided to wait until Bel got to L-1 for WH to vote for him. As I knew before and am currently experiencing, voting for scum isn't enough to avoid scum suspicion. However, WH's intent to hammer prevented MCN and Blue from quickhammering if they figured out what was up. (Well, MCN and Blue theoretically could have hammered anyway, but that seems like a breach of etiquette to me.) This gave Bel and WH time to plot, discuss best strategies, say their final goodbyes, administer last rites, etc.

I wouldn't stake my life or any amount of money that could buy me a meal on it, but WH is still my best guess for the final scum. MCN and Blue still merit closer looks than I've given them, though (I did a dual ISO with Bel and each of them during N2, but that's all). A complete reread of the whole thread wouldn't hurt, either. (Can I get permission to skim SRMP's posts, though?)

[Kim]

Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself.

You were my prime suspect after my N2 reread. That's what I was referring to in my initial D3 post (364) when I needed to figure out how to act -- I was worried about being scumread for having a case on you based on, frankly, not a whole lot.

I'm wondering this mostly because your nonsensical fixation with Belisarius' hammer confuses me, and I suppose scum-you could have come up with something better. After all, apparently I'm scum because I should have hammered later and given MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird time to give their opinions

I'll admit more explicitly that that was faulty reasoning on my part. That's not scummy in this particular case where there aren't any more scum.

and I'm also scum because I should have hammered earlier instead of letting Belisarius claim at all.

To me, that seems more consistent with the Quicklynch Wiki article you posted, but I think that article is describing larger games where a confirmed cop (or similar) who can avoid retribution can say at Daybreak "I investigated Bel. He's scum. *votes*" Everyone (well, int(N/2) of them) would then also vote for him without discussion and end the Day ASAP.

So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius?

1) To get towncred by busing him. Smudger used this against me in his case: "His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today."

2) Like I said earlier, stating intent to hammer could also buy time for last-minute strategy by dissuading MCN and Blue from quickhammering to end the day. That was the only reason I could think of for you to wait for Bel to reach L-1 before stating intent to hammer; so, why did you wait?

Satisfied?

I'll get back to that.

Speaking for myself only, had anyone else [besides Smudger] suddenly voted for Belisarius, after completely dismissing the "case" against him, and then refused to explain why, I'd probably not join the wagon. Or rather, probably would think it was a reaction test instead of taking it seriously.

Smudger wasn't completely townread -- Blue had him as scum, while MCN and I were null on him. Naturally, who you listen to depends on what you think of the player.

The rest of my readlist, with rough scum probabilities:

MrCurlyNoodles, 22.5% -- also played well, but his response to AS's claim could be scum defending scum; a similar reaction is what broke open the Open game Smudger and I subbed out of (counterpoint: I said the same thing, and I'm town)

Bluebird, 7.5% -- really still null, but some other people look bad

Smudger, 2.5% -- maybe MCN's comment above is right, but I doubt it

Are you really saying MrCurlyNoodles is 3x more likely to be scum than Bluebird? How come?

I was. I was probably overly influenced by the appeal of having each person 3x more likely to be scum than the next, along with the fact that the percentages didn't look too off to me.

Aside from that, I'm probably being affected by the small sample sizes of my experience. (I see now that I said "claim" where I should have said "case/vote" in MCN's explanation; I hope that didn't confuse anyone.)

In the Open game I mentioned above, the unclaimed cop said at the start of D3 that she had reread the thread, determined KlingonCelt was guilty, and voted for him. (In actuality, she had gotten a guilty result from him.) mykonian declared that to be a "shit post" and capped off a rant in his next post with a vote for her. KlingonCelt got lynched and flipped scum; mykonian got investigated the next night and,

quelle surprise

, was also scum. (Smudger and I had subbed out by then.)

At the time (which, I remind you again, was 4:30 in the morning on a workday), I didn't like his post where he wasn't convinced I was town but was willing to lynch me because you and Smudger said it. On reread, the post isn't that bad -- he was probably more like 95% sure I was scum instead of the 50% or so I was thinking at the time.

Re: Bluebird: In my first Newbie game, the lurker was town. In my second, one was town and one was scum. In retrospect, I should have kept her at the default 25% scum probability, but it felt high to me at the time for gut reasons.

In conclusion to this part of the post: If Bluebird's 25% likely to be scum and MCN is more likely to be scum than she is, nobody else can be >50% likely to be scum. That's my threshold for voting for someone this early in the Day, so:

UNVOTE: Witch_Hunter

Adjusted scumprobs (based on the first numbers I can think of that don't feel wrong to me): WH 42%, MCN 32%, Blue 25%, Smudger 1%

[Kim]

Kim, you need to get back in here and play thank you.

I know. I had some unexpected family events yesterday (went to my sister's for a cookout + NHL All-Star Game + helped her daughter play the new Tomb Raider) and had to wake up unconscionably early today (04:50, four hours earlier than usual), so I didn't read/write when I got home because it'd keep me from getting to sleep. I'll get back to things after work + commute, about 10 hours from now. (We'll be shorthanded at work, so I don't know how much I can post from there.)

I will say that about half of the reply to your long post to/against me will be something like "I believe you understand what I'm saying in my defense, but you just don't agree. I don't know what else I can say right now." I think I've said what I think about MCN, but I can elaborate on that more after work.

[Kim]

@

Smudger

re: giving up: I haven't, but I realize I've done just about all the direct self-defense I can do. Like the saying goes, though, the best defense is a good offense. I need to switch my mindset and figure out who scum actually is. Having said that, if you want these answers, they're not too hard to give:

Spoiler:

The absence of any Halifax bands on Kim's list offends me.

1. why is Bel so fixated on Kim, even with one of his first posts?

Possible answer from a null POV of Bel's: Except for the last one, all the bands I listed were from different cities in west-to-east order. There are (apparently) enough Haligonian bands that he expected one at the end of the list. (I honestly thought Alvvays was from Halifax, but they're from Toronto.)

Possible answer from a scummy POV of Bel's: If WH was town (or maybe even if WH was scum, but I would guess not), Bel could have been preparing to piggyback on WH's suspicions of me quoted below and thought he'd be able to push me into being mislynched. Otherwise, maybe Bel saw something in my RQS reply -- maybe self-doubt in the part WH thought suspicious below?

Spoiler:

4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.

Isn't that

precisely

what scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.

5. I'm always scum, even when I'm town. That much hasn't changed

For the same reasons above, I don't like this much either.

2. is this the earliest catch of the game?

No.

Spoiler:

Welcome, new people!

While I'm up (most of the time I can sleep through my phone vibrating when it gets this thread's subscription email, but not tonight, apparently)...

UNVOTE: hiplop for the reasons mentioned by Belisarius, Witch_Doctor, and him. Nobody else seems worthy of a vote at this hour.

EBWOP (edit by way of post): "deserves," not "seems worthy of."

why Kim did you think it necessary to change your wording?

"Seems worthy of" implied in my head that there was some sort of positive value in having a vote from me. My thought processes are pretty abstract -- I picture most things in my mind as relations to something else and then "translate" them to English. It wasn't "necessary," but not being able to be understood is almost a phobia of mine -- if I'm able to see something that could be confusing and fix it easily (as opposed to editing down a stream-of-consciousness wall post, for example), my instinct is to edit it. (Only if I have a little time to think about it do I say to myself, "It's obvious what I meant. Just leave it alone.")

[Kim]

I'm finally catching up! Let's set the Wayback Machine to not quite 48 hours ago and Smudger's post 441.

Spoiler:

MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*

WH is a town read... noted

At that time, yes. As my case falls apart, he's becoming more and more of one again.

Spoiler:

Witch_Hunter didn't seem to share your view that Bel's post threw everyone else off of me. His next post had a p-edit directed at Bel asking him to explain his desire to lynch me. Bel's next post had him right back on my wagon:

Yes WH questioned Bel, and Bel made a statement regarding his potential vote on you straight after, as he continually did up until he was lynched. But my statement is that the post by Bel "was designed to throw us off of the weak case he had on you". The way it was perceived by those in the game at the time it was posted is another matter, the fact someone questioned him, well it was going to happen, he then responded as he did. What if he had just changed his POV on being questioned, it would have generated more questions would it not? why would he continually point to you as scum, Ok you maybe town but you could also equally be scum, my case surrounds the premise that the collection of points I highlighted leads me to believe I have scum, you.

You see my case is the general strategy being employed, be it direct or indirect by Bel. In my mind he was attempting to discard you as he did not want too much attention on his buddy, But he also wanted to hide you should he get lynched, which is what happened, that's the point I am trying to make.

I see what you're saying now. Your point is taken. (And I really should have seen it before.)

Spoiler:

(I moved the answer up here.) As a whole, I obviously can't say why Bel posted what he did. I will say that it doesn't fit the distancing I've seen in my other newbie games.

That post has irked me all game. its the strangest thing I have seen to date in a game of Mafia, and the more I ponder it the more I return to Occam's Razor, remember that Bel himself said as much. The Simplest answer must be the truth, and to me the simplest answer is, because he shared day-talk with you, ergo you are scum.

I'll counter your Occam's Razor with an H.L. Mencken paraphrase: "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." More seriously, my first reaction to Bel's post was to take him seriously -- I might be slightly misremembering, but I recall other people have seeing my posts as overly calculated and/or fake. I almost directly replied to Bel suggesting that was why -- going as far as to type it out -- because I was getting tired of hearing it, but I deleted it before posting.

Knowing that Bel is scum and I'm town, though, my best guess is that if he wasn't being honest, he was he was just saying that to instill fear, uncertainty, and doubt (TM by Microsoft) in the townies.

Spoiler:

You did ask me. I had already answered in post 189, as you quote below. Is there some better way for me to answer if Player X directly asks me if I think Player Y is scum, assuming that I don't think Y is scum?

I think you miss my point here. Your voting history is pretty patchy to say the least, you voted as I have highlighted and yet its more to do with your POV on SRMP. this is where I see an issue. As I stated I feel your motives at the time for that post was to acquire Town-cred based off the back of not voting for a player you knew was town. You may point at the fact that others were not voting for him and that BlueBird had made a similar statement, but it goes back to the collective facts not this fact in isolation.

If I had voted for SRMP, I'm guessing that would also be included in your collection of facts. My not voting for SRMP isn't exculpatory, but it's not evidence, either.

Spoiler:

1) I didn't hammer Bel. That was WH.
2) I didn't question you because I was able to figure out that you thought AS had a good reason for voting for Bel. (I didn't think about exactly what your reason was, though. That could have saved me all this typing.)

yes you are right and I retract the comment concerning the hammer, but that does not take away from my thoughts the fact that you did not even question me, you just went ahead and did it. But as a footnote I see your explanation regarding why and I can see some merit in it. however, I have looked at the other games you have been in. In one of them you hammered for the lose. But before you hammered you were making sure that it was the right choice you were asking questions and interacting with the other players, you even asked for time to consider the move. You were town in that game and a lot more involved than you have been here, your questions are more indepth and seem to be well thought out. I don't get the same feel here, it may wel be confirmation bias, but not with everything else I have considered.

I didn't question you because WH asked you while I was asleep. Your answer to WH and a little bit of thought on my end was enough to figure out what you meant. I saw that behavior from the cop in our open game, as I've mentioned.

It's fair to say I haven't worked as hard with this game compared with my other newbie games. Some of that has to do with other distractions (e.g., all the video games I got for Christmas/my birthday); some of that's from trying to make the game more fun for me; some of that's a defeatist "I tried so hard and didn't help my side; quite possibly, I hurt it. Why not try less?"

Spoiler:

He might still think I was suspicious for what I did -- he never replied to my second response -- but he did also say I'm behind you and WH in his lynch list in 337.

that wasn't his lynch list, thats was his soft claim, that made me lynch Bel......

Wouldn't AS have been suspicious of you and WH regardless of why he thought Bel was scum? I'd say that the "soft" claim (or at least the post that completed the puzzle for me) was 336, "Let me make something very clear guys. The lynch IS going to be Bel today."

Spoiler:

1) If he were town,

he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed.

That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

you do realise you are parroting me? I said that

That was intentional. I wasn't exactly using your words against you, but if the argument's valid against me, it's valid for me.

Spoiler:

He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH

this has merit with regard to WH, and yes I had considered the probability that WH is a very smart player and is pulling the wool over our eyes, if he is he has played extremely well and needs recognition for it. But I don't think so I don't seen anything that rings alarm bells. I see Bel trying to ensure that the two of the strongest town players stay off his scent. You must consider that at the time in the game he did not know which power roles were in town's possession, he just had an idea based on the scum roles he obviously knew. therefore he wanted to keep us sweet, and he did right up to AS starting the wagon on him and AS's claim.

You may be right; I may be crazy. That's really all that's left of my case against WH.

Spoiler:

How did you interpret the fact that I would neither confirm nor deny VT? Also, I've already said that a fake PR claim by scum toDay would be a guaranteed loss once the real PR counterclaims, regardless of whether the scum guess the role we actually have correctly.

Yes, but it remains extant, you have confirmed you know the best course of action as scum in this type of game is not to CC if caught out but claim VT. I read between the lines, it was clear to me what you were saying in that post.

It's only clear to you because you're assuming I'm scum in the first place.

Spoiler:

WH said in 389 that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.

this is your case on WH, site mechanics?

More the fact that I couldn't think of a reason for him to wait to vote for Bel until he would be the hammer. (I still can't at this instant, but I'm still groggy from my unplanned nap.)

[Kim]

So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius?

1) To get towncred by busing him. Smudger used this against me in his case: "His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today."

2) Like I said earlier, stating intent to hammer could also buy time for last-minute strategy by dissuading MCN and Blue from quickhammering to end the day. That was the only reason I could think of for you to wait for Bel to reach L-1 before stating intent to hammer; so, why did you wait?

Do MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird really strike you as the sort of players prone to quickhammering an unclaimed L-1?
Why did I wait? Because, as I've been saying for a while (see below), I intended to hammer him after I figured out what was happening. And I could hardly do it if I voted him before he was at L-1.

Of course you did. I remember when I used to be smart.

[Kim]

Counterargument about Noodles: if he's scum, why didn't he lynch Kim earlier when he had the chance?

very good catch, missed that...unless scum was already there of course

Perhaps, like he somewhat implied in 413, he thought it'd look scummy to hammer me without hearing from Blue first. By the time she replied, he couldn't get back online to hammer (his next post was 431, where he apologized for being MIA) until Smudger unvoted me. MCN's next post had a vote for me (439) because "we need[ed] to get the ball rolling again" -- some 11+ days before the deadline.

[Kim]

I reread MCN and Blue, but I didn't come up with anything of note that hasn't been said already.

I'm at a loss right now. From where I sit, half of Smudger's case is Bel tunneling me -- and pretty much anything scum does qualifies as WIFOM. Most of the rest of the case is just confirmation bias. Assuming X and not reaching a contradiction is

not

evidence for X when assuming not-X also doesn't lead to a contradiction.

I'll keep reading and hoping I'll find something until I get hammered, I guess. In case that happens while I'm asleep:

Spoiler: Do not open until I'm hammered

I'll just say that WH's drifting into town territory for me. The more I read, the more everyone seems to bunch up. My current scum-to-town order is MCN, either WH or Blue (probably Blue, but it's close), then the other, then Smudger. Rounding off, let's say 1/3 MCN, 1/4 WH and Blue, 1/6 Smudge.

The little voice that haunts Smudger told me that Smudger is more likely to be scum than I've thought he was before. I made this argument against WH before, but it didn't occur to me to apply it to Smudger. If the scumteam picked up on AS's softclaim of a scum result on Bel, they could have had Smudger go ahead and vote for Bel since AS would have repeated the claim less and less subtly until even I would have picked up on it. Don't forget that Smudger would have been a very loud participant in two mislynches. However, there are also good reasons to think Smudger is town (duh). Just try to keep all the possibilities in mind.

Good luck in LyLo/MyLo, town!

[Kim]

I'm really town. Everything I said in 493 still holds. Also, everything I've said is either true or what I honestly thought to be true at the time.

I blame myself and Bel.

Again, good luck town!