Newbie 1676 | Hungarian Nóták | Endgame
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Witch_Hunter Goon
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Witch_Hunter Goon
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In post 10, hiplop wrote:
I thought it would be nice to get to know you guys; afterall we will be residing in the same town for a few days
1) Have anyone of you played any off-site games?
2)How about on-site games? If so; How Many?
3) How would you describe yourself as an individual?
4) What do you think you will be remembered for this game?
5) Why are you not scum? (:P)
6) Favourite pizza topping?
7) Favourite Movie?
8) Favourite Song/band/music genre?
VOTE: witch hunter agent 47 is a an assassin which is pretty close to a hungarian mafia member IMO
Hi there, hiplop!
1/2 - No. I'm really a mafia virgin.
3 - Quiet in unfamiliar situations, a sarcastic geek around friends. Well meaning, but not very socially skilled.
4 - Too early to say, really.
5 - Because the mod decided I'm town.
6 - Chocolate.
7 - Hmm, that's a tough one. PossiblyGladiator. Not the best movie there is, sure, and an incredibly innacurate depiction of ancient Rome, but the mix of good acting, politics and awesome action scenes makes it a very re-watchable movie for me.
8 - Either Led Zeppelin or Queen.
Btw, my avatar's supposed to be Rude of the Turks from Final Fantasy VII. So it's not hungarian mafia, it's corporate mafia, not that it helps any!-
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Witch_Hunter Goon
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In post 16, Kim wrote:4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.
Isn't thatpreciselywhat scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.-
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In post 18, Bluebird wrote:In post 16, Kim wrote:3) Irrespective of the validity of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, INTP fits me almost perfectly.
Well, I would have put that also, but I didn't think anyone would know what I meant Congrats on beating me to it.
As for me, I'd forgotten all about the Myers-Briggs types*. I don't know how reliable these online tests are, but the results match. So, it seems we have a third INTP here:
http://www.16personalities.com/profiles/568daba115997
* Ever since learning they're based on Jungian theory, and whereas Jung had some great ideas, he wasn't that keen on evidence. Or so I've been told, anyway.-
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In post 17, Witch_Hunter wrote:In post 16, Kim wrote:4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.
Isn't thatpreciselywhat scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.
For the same reasons above, I don't like this much either.
Either way, no strong reads on Belisarius or Kim but for that, so I'm not changing my vote till everyone's participating and I have a more complete set of reads. Unless someone actually claims scum or something overtly suspicious.
@Bluebird: Captain Basch is a character from Final Fantasy XII who gets impersonated twice during the game.
Ontopic: Your vote on Belisarius, was it just OMGUS or something else?
@Belisarius: Do you actually scumread Bluebird, or is your vote still random?
@Kim: It's way early in the game, but any of those logical posts you could share?-
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Mostly offtopic, except for the last question:
@Hiplop: I'll check it later, thanks for pointing it. Kinda odd this game gathers so many of what's supposed to be a rare type (~3%).
@ All Canadians: Your musical discussions went completely over my head, so: any good metal Canadian bands?
@All experienced players: What's your suggested method of keeping track of what's going on? Do you take notes, and how?-
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In post 28, Smudger wrote:Hey Witch have you heard of RVS?
Random voting stage? I have, even if I didn't much see the point before hiplop explained it.
If that's your way of inviting me to RV some more, I'd rather wait till everyone's here. For all I know, all six of us who posted so far may be townies wasting our time trying to scumread each other.
@Kim: Thank you for the post - seriously - but we have some miscommunication here. I meant, "would you post one of your logical analyses on this game?"
Then again, ignore it for now. I'll ask again later, when the game really gets going. Just from reading other games, I hadn't realized that takes a while to happen.-
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Welcome,MrCurlyNoodles! Good to see I'm not the only total newbie around. Feel free to ask for advice - not that I have any to give, but this is a friendly crowd and chances are I'll learn from the answers too.
Anyway, I'd like to hear more from you, and my vote on an inactive player isn't doing any good, so you know what? I'll follow the suggestion from the experienced players. Random vote it is:
VOTE: MrCurlyNoodles-
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In post 46, Smudger wrote:serious vote
Ok, if you say so.
You have a really opaque MO, you know? It's hard to read you either way if you don't speak your mind now and then.-
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Witch_Hunter Goon
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@Kim: We couldn't disagree more in our conclusions. Hiplop's my strongest townread so far. Sure, that's not very strong, more like 60%, but it's still something. So I'm wary of posts like:
In post 53, Kim wrote:I think that hiplop's actions are worthy of pressure.
Allow me to explain. Either hiplop saw Belisarius' first vote or he didn't.
If he did, and he's scum, he's accusing Belisarius on terribly shaky grounds. Even I had noticed it was odd, and it's my freaking first game!
If he did, and he's town, he's still making a weak accusation, but with some purpose. Possibly to see if scum would get on that shitty bandwagon, then call them out later.
If he didn't, he's been skim reading. I can see a veteran town player being slightly careless on day 1, especially in a newbie game. I have a hard time seeing scum-hiplop doing the same, since it's a much greater risk for him.
So, either hiplop's town, and at most guilty of not noticing one post, or he's terrible scum.
Later, the same process is at play. Belisarius changes his vote to you and hiplop does the same at once.
Town-hiplop reason: finally noticed Belisarius was actually taking part in RVS. Therefore, no more reason to suspect him for the moment. And he's also applying pressure on someone. Why not help him and get a read on this Kim guy?
Scum-hiplop reason: uh oh, my case on Belisarius just went offrails. What if he suspects me? I know, I'll sheep his vote and cunningly move attention away from me. <evil laugh>
Again, either hiplop's town or stupid. And I'd rather bet our IC is not stupid.-
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Witch_Hunter Goon
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Welcome,Some Random Mafia Player!
In post 56, Kim wrote:
I get your overall gist, but what do you mean by 60%? I'm assuming it's not that there's a 60% chance he's town and 40% chance he's scum.
It's his score in my town-o-meter. It indicates how confident I am someone's town. Begins at neutral 50%, 0% is confirmed scum, 100% is confirmed town. 60% is a somewhat arbitrary number meaning "given it's still Day 1, he gives town vibes and I wouldn't lynch him today".
In post 58, hiplop wrote:
Town question eachother all the time, I don't think Kim's push on me seems particularly scummy.
It seemed odd to me: on the one hand, I agree with almost everything he says, taken in isolation. His posting style looks good: transparent, argumentative, active. On the other hand, his actions amounted to being suspicious of the player I was least suspicious about. Was him bad at reading people, was I, or was it something more? It's not much, hence my not even FoSing him, but it was worth checking.
Looks ok to me. Thank you for posting your ideas.
UNVOTE:
Now get to work and chase your leads.
Inclusive we = You (Kim) and I (WH).-
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@AzoriusSenate: Welcome!
I like your first post. Lean on information, but seems a legit effort. Interesting read on Bluebird. I'd interpreted her first post as noobtown indignated at being accused and overreacting, but it'd be interesting to see what she has to say for herself.
@Some Random Mafia Player:
I also liked your post, at first. Until I got to the end.
It has onelittlething I don't understand: the conclusion does not follow from the premises. Your case on Bluebird follows on AzoriusSenate's and reinforces it, and most of your post is spent on it. So far, so good. Yet you vote on Kim, saying "havent seen towny things, bu have seen scummy things from this slot. Not the most scummy, but is second behind bluebird", though you only pointed to one post of his.
So, please enlighten me here. What's your case on Kim, and why vote him if he's not your strongest scumread?
Off topic: David Bowie. Rest in peace, man, and thank you for the music.-
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Alright, I admit I'm also curious about the read list conumdrum.
From my (admittedly newbie) point of view, posting read lists should be good for town. Mafia is about information. Scum already knows who belongs to what faction, town doesn't. Read lists give information thatcouldbe useful for scum (what player X thinks is going on) but aredefinitelyuseful for town (who is probably town, who is probably scum): it's not a game like poker, where you have to read everyone else on your own, but a team game where we build on each other's opinions to get progressively more information, thus reducing scum's inherent advantage.
(The only exception would be PRs, a key piece of information where scum and town are equally in the dark, and that's why this isn't discussed without the utmost care. This is where security outweighs transparency. And that's all we should be saying about the subject today, really.)
What's the argument for secrecy? How does town benefit from it?-
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In post 107, AzoriusSenate wrote:
The more experienced players can touch on this as well, but I will explain my POV. People making lists with scum and town in them gives scum a lot of information. Obviously town is already sharing there thoughts but there is something very potent in lists.The scum can easily use these lists, if incorrect, to manipulate town.Another point to be made is that they really are useless. At this point we should all have people we do and don't want to lynch today. Putting everything on the table for scum to see is unnecessary and could lead to them gaining an advantage. Plus, it's very early in the game so reads should absolutely not be set in stone.
Disagree on their uselessness, and don't see why posting a list should set reads in stone. Of course opinions should change as new information comes up, and we shouldn't expect people to necessarily keep the same reads they posted a while ago.
But the bolded part is a good point. I still think they're more useful for town than for scum, but yes, there is some danger.
In post 109, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:
I'm aware these are all things scum can do while just playing the game but I feel like it's easier with early read lists.
Also a good point.
In post 114, Smudger wrote:In post 105, Witch_Hunter wrote:but a team game where we build on each other's opinions to get progressively more information, thus reducing scum's inherent advantage.
how do you know who is in your team? what is scum's main aim? how do they achieve that aim?
1. That's what talking and sharing information is for. In areductio ad absurdum, nobody posts anything so scum can't work on misdirection, and in the end scum wins because town didn't have enough info to go with.
2. To win the game = to kill town.
3. Scum wins by default if town doesn't do anything. Town must be active and hunt scum to win. That's done by getting information.
That said, your and AzoriusSenate's point is that then scum can work on misdirection. Point accepted.
So, would you agree on this more nuanced statement: "read lists give a lot of information. Information is a powerful town weapon, but it can potentially be subverted by scum, so it should be handled with care. How exactly to do that depends on the game-specific circumstances."?
Anyway, if you know of a good article in the wiki or discussion in MD about this topic, please post it. This theory talk shouldn't derail us from what's going on right now, but it's still important.-
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Feeling bad vibes fromSome Random Mafia Player. Very defensive, very confident Bluebird should be lynched with not enough evidence, and I still didn't see his case on Kim, even though he wanted us to talk about it and I explicitly requested him to say what was so important about Kim specifically.
Will ISO him later when I have the time, but for now,
FoS: Some Random Mafia Player.
P-edit: @Belisarius: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?-
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VOTE: Some Random Mafia Player
Some Random Mafia Player's (lack of) formatting makes his posts a pain to analyze.
The TL;DR version, to quoteSmudger, is:
In post 151, Smudger wrote:
"But lest look at your content so far...on the whole so far your responses are scummy. you are not consistent, you are raging and not actually saying anything that makes sense let alone points to anything of substance."
@Everyone, opinions, please. More specifically, either persuade me my case is nonsense or prepare to lend your votes. There are other things deserving investigation, and we still have time to start looking into them before the Day ends, but this is important.
A caveat that must be mentioned: his fight with Smudger is a big mess of text walls and I didn't go too deeply into it, partly because it's still going. But the rest should suffice. There's a pattern of inconsistency and throwing wild accusations around.
Spoiler: First, his vote on Kim:
Spoiler: Second, his vote on Bluebird:
Spoiler: Third, his reads are strange:
Spoiler: Finally, his vote on Smudger:-
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@MrCurlyNoodles: I'm quite flattered.
Spoiler tags are pretty easy to use, and make long texts much easier to digest. Give them a try later - you don't even have to post anything, just preview the results until you're satisfied and then cancel the post. And let me know if you find other cool features, I'm still experimenting.
In post 153, Belisarius wrote:In post 129, Witch_Hunter wrote:P-edit: @ Belisarius: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?
His interference with a perceived gambit by hiplop makes no sense from a town perspective, but could come from scum trying to manipulate me while at the same time making a show of standing up to the IC.
There's also something else right on the tip of my tongue, but I've been trying to draw it out for days and it's being a stubborn git.
I suppose that's SE-speak for "I have some evidence, but it's not the moment to talk about it yet". If that's the case, let's discuss it later, assuming we are both alive tomorrow. Some have townread Kim, some think he should be lynched, and I don't see what either side is seeing.
Is there a rule that all veteran players have to speak in vague and mysterious tones? I was earlier annoyed by Smudger doing the same. Now I begin to see the point, seeing the reaction he got from Some Random Mafia Player, but still, really high-level games probably read like the Delphic Oracle.
@Kim, Bluebird, AzoriuSenate, what about you? Convinced or not? If convinced, please state intent to hammer, butdon't vote before he has a chance to claim, please.-
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But just from reading the thread when he arrived, he must have noticed that's not the way we're playing. It could be culture shock, but even if this explains his posts' disorganization, I don't think it also explains his inconsistent, defensive playstyle.
What I got from the SRMP-Smudger fight boils down to "Smudger pressures SRMP to get a reaction, SRMP freaks and makes a very unconvincing case on Smudger". Not damning by itself, but part of an overall behavior that is, at least, anti-town.
While Bluebird and AzoriuSenate don't show up: let's suppose you stay unconvinced. Who do you want lynched today? Belisarius (who isn't convinced either) wants either you or Bluebird. What do you suggest?-
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After all, it doesn't necessarily have to be Some Random Mafia Player, provided we have a better case on someone else, but Day 1 should have a lynch. A short discussion with arguments against no-lynch: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4024936-
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@AzoriusSenate: Thank you!
@hiplop: Why the unvote? The only risk was SRMP self-hammering, but that would in itself be a claim, or a refusal to claim, would it not?
@Kim: /Somewhat offtopic: If it helps, I'll tell you this: when I became interested in Mafia, at first I supposed it was a logic game. Watch who lies, who is inconsistent, and voilà, scum found. That's why I once said I like the way you post, btw. My first posts actually reflect this belief: I saw no reason we couldn't all be friendly and talk about pizza and Canadian music while also playing the game seriously.
Now, after playing for a few days, I'm increasingly suspicious logic's only a small part of it, and what differentiates good players is skill in bluffing and reading people,in that order. Read a few games from non-newbies, and it's like they're all BSing each other until, somehow, a scumdar pings. And I'm a crappy card player in RL. In other words, I like this game,but it's hard, and in different ways than expected.
So, just in case I read you right and you feel you don't quite get what's going on and don't have the required skillset to be a badass Mafia player, well, I'm in the same boat. Probably all the other newbies are too.
If this makes no sense to you, feel free to ignore it.-
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Unfortunately, SRMP's attitude at L-1 was so weirdly erratic and defeatist there wasn't much of a choice. Had he been left alive, would anyone have been able to believe anything he said? Or would we spend most of Day 2 discussing whether to lynch him, same as yesterday?
Now, hiplop's fate deserves some consideration. As the IC, he wasipso factoa target for scum. But would he have been killed if his reads were completely off-target? If that were the case, scum'd probably be better off leaving him alive and killing someone closer to finding scum, a more immediately dangerous player. Checking his reads more carefully is worth at least a try.
In post 73, hiplop wrote:Reads right now for those viewers at home
Town
Witch
Kim
Noodles
AzoriiiousSenate
Null
Smudge
Belisarius
(Cmon SE's, get more active )
Scum
Bluebird
Some Random Mafia Player - Seriously, this is not a town mindset
SRMP flipped town, so that leaves Bluebird.
Personally, I didn't see much of a case on her yesterday - her defensiveness looked indignated town. Lurking, maybe? A possible scumtell, but not that strong without other clues.
@People who scumread Bluebird yesterday: Now we know SRMP was town, thus no SRMP-Bluebird team. Does this change your read on her?-
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It depends. The reads themselves I disagreed with, and at the time believed it was too early to have an opinion abouteveryone.
But the act of posting a readlist? That seemed town, that's why I asked for people's opinions about it (his 104), (my 105). It intrigued me, this town behavior coming from a scummy player.-
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In post 244, Bluebird wrote:
As I have stated earlier, I scumread you because your stats indicate that you subbed out of every game that you were town, one entry notwithstanding. Also,yourconversation with SRMP was what convinced us to lynch.
@Bluebird: Let me check one thing here - are you just talking about yesterday, or do you still scumread Smudger right now?-
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@AzoriusSenate: those posts you mentioned were from before you arrived, were discussed at the time, and resulted from a misunderstanding of sorts. Hiplop got suspicious of Belisarius because he didn't notice Belisarius' vote in RVS, as he admits later (post 58).
Please notice I'm just saying I disagreewith that specific theory. Belisarius is one of my nullreads and one of two players I find hardest to read. I want to see where this goes, in case my #1 suspicion is wrong.-
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Witch_Hunter
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In post 260, Smudger wrote:after my last game this one is a comparative nursing home for activity..... yawn
so to liven it up I think that scum sits somewhere here Bluebird/Kim/Azorious
Yeah, a bit disappointed here too. There's lots of things of analyze and check, there should be some more debate going on.
Bluebird is a possibility, yes. I didn't pay her much attention on Day 1, because anyone SRMP wanted to vote was almost automatically off-limits, but there are some things that just don't fit, you know?
Kim, I'm not sure about. It'd take a reread to be sure, but I don't remember him doing much scumhunting. Could be a problem in his logic shtick, that makes him overanalyze and see possible WIFOM everywhere.
My suspects list includes Belisarius. Same as Kim, he's hard to read. Could be a townie who prefers to stay in a corner and watch people without drawing much attention to himself.
AzoriusSenate? Probably town. Same as you - overall pro-town behavior of investigating, trying to stir the game when there's not much going on.
For completeness' sake, MrCurlyNoodles is possibly town, though I wish he'd participate more, just to be sure.
TL;DR version, from least to most suspicious:
{AzoriusSenate / Smudger}
{MrCurlyNoodles}
{Belisarius / Kim}
{Bluebird}-
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@ Bluebird: Can't speak for the others, but here's why I'm suspicious of you: your case on Smudger is odd. If you believe SRMP's lynch was masterminded by scum, a more logical act would be to accuse me of being behind it, not him, since I played a more direct role. Yes, they had that horrendous series of quote walls back and forth. After a while, I only skimmed those posts briefly, and probably others did the same. They made SRMP look bad, granted, but it's not as if he needed much help doing that. But while Smudger pressed SRMP, I was persuading the other players.
Don't believe me? Let's check the non-Smudger votes on SRMP.
Spoiler: First, hiplop votes SRMP, for reasons unrelated to Smudger:
Spoiler: Later, I vote SRMP. Please check the bolded part, where it says the SRMP-Smudger fight isn't that important:
Spoiler: Then, MrCurlyNoodles votes, specifically agreeing with my earlier post:
Spoiler: AzoriusSenate joins the wagon, partly persuaded by me, partly by SRMP's weird play:
I also tried to convince other people to either join the wagon, debunk the case on SRMP or provide an alternative (eg, post 177, post 179, post 200).
Finally, hiplop briefly unvoted SRMP, uncertain whether he was scum or upset town. Remember why he decided on scum and voted on him once again? Post 204: because hiplop scumread you and you defended SRMP.
Therefore, out of the 4 non-Smudger votes, I have direct responsibility for my own, helped convince for MrCurlyNoodles and AzoriusSenate's and tried my best to persuade everyone else. You, indirectly, convinced hiplop. Nowhere does Smudger play a decisive role in this. That's why you suspecting him for that makes me somewhat suspicious of you in turn.-
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In post 271, Smudger wrote:In post 262, Witch_Hunter wrote:some things that just don't fit, you know?
please point them out, I'm intrigued to know considering the posting has been light from that slot
Mostly it's her weak but persistent case on you, as I've mentioned in post 266.
Besides that, her ISO is strange. Too passive, answers questions but doesn't ask them nor does much that feels like she is actually involved in the game.-
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In post 278, Smudger wrote:In post 276, Bluebird wrote:I've noticed you've got a second completed town game in your stats. Haven't checked it out yet, but it's making me think. I thought that since you had pulled out of all your town games except one, you are likely to be scum
OMG.. did you read this>~~~?
In post 246, Smudger wrote:In post 244, Bluebird wrote:As I have stated earlier, I scumread you because your stats indicate that you subbed out of every game that you were town, one entry notwithstanding. Also, your conversation with SRMP was what convinced us to lynch.
do you know why I subbed out of those games? no you don't. I had a real life issue that required me to sub out of all of them at the same time, go check you will see it all happened basically on the same day.
honestly you think thats a scum read do you?
as for my conversation with SRMP, you didn't vote him, so I didn't convince you did?
Agreed, this is bad. I want to see what else she has to say first, though, before deciding on a vote. Lynching town today would be bad, so let's not do this till we can be confident that's not the case here.
FoS: Bluebird-
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In post 286, Smudger wrote:In post 283, Witch_Hunter wrote:MrCurlyNoodles, what's your opinion about the players you didn't mention - Belisarius, Kim, Smudger? Any one particularly towny or scummy? And concerning Bluebird and AzoriusSenate, would you join a wagon on either of them right now?
In post 274, Smudger wrote:MrCurlyNoddles, do you ask questions?
I'm giving him something specific, you're being grumpy.-
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In post 287, Smudger wrote:In post 284, Witch_Hunter wrote:AzoriusSenate, what's your take of the Bluebird situation?
I think this needs to go to all...
Point taken, but you, me, MrCurlyNoodles and Belisarius already suspect her, and Kim is busy with his RL issues, so for the moment that leaves AzoriusSenate whose position I don't know.-
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@MrCurlyNoodles, tbh Kim sitting on the fence is nothing unexpected, and the main reason I find him hard to read. I agree Bluebird's OMGUS means nothing much by itself, but scum looking at someone's wiki isn't that hard to imagine.
Smudger is grumpy, granted, but look at his actions throughout the game. The overall pattern is pretty pro-town. It seems he did misread SRMP's post 80, but look at his posts immediately prior. He was talking about readlists, same as post 80, and the misread looks like an organic part of the conversation.
AzoriusSenate was also towny on Day 1, but his current actions are perplexing. Why would anyone, town or scum, insist on such an embarrassingly weak case after its holes were pointed out?-
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Witch_Hunter Goon
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MrCurlyNoodles' s post makes sense. Belisarius is a possibility for today's lynch, but we haven't been given a good reason to do so.
For all the rest of us know, there could be a AzoriusSenate-Belisarius team and this is some weird attempt to either bus Belisarius and make Azorius look town, or lynch Azorius and make Belisarius look town. I don't know, this whole situation is strange.-
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In post 309, Smudger wrote:Witch I don't think there is a Bel-Azorious scum team. Azorious' post above looks emotive and due to frustration... it doesn't yet strike me as something scum would do. Even as a bus...
I was more defending MrCurlyNoodles by explaining to AzoriusSenate how easy it is to scumread his latest actions. Short of Azorius explaining himself, I have no idea what's going on with all this tunneling. It doesn't match his earlier behavior.
If you can convince him to present his opinion in more detail, please try. Noodles just tried and look the reaction he got.
Azorius, please work with us here. You may have seen something, but tbh you've not done a very good job of explaining it.-
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Smudger, MrCurlyNoodles, what should we do while they have their fight? Just watch and hope for good information? Take a side? There's still a while before the deadline, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing something. Since they're not likely to be a scumteam, according to Smudger, then there's at least one more scum to find.
I'm for getting back to discussing Bluebird, as we were doing before this new situation came up. She's still lurking, so not much more to go on. Though this is a moment when town should be making some effort to help, and this inactivity isn' helpful. Smudger, do you think her case on you was town or scum?-
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In post 322, Smudger wrote:Interesting. Azorious you really have nothing as I read it Bel has negated your argument. So one question if Bel was not a lynch today who would it be in your opinion?
In post 319, AzoriusSenate wrote:
You guys take as long as you need to butI'm just going to say right now I'm never removing my vote on this guy. He's scum and needs to bite the dirt so we can find the next one.We can read for interactions right now but I think he's probably going to play today as if he's being lynched and will probably throw out a bunch of random stuff to throw us off of the second mafia.
In post 322, Smudger wrote:Witch I think that Scum is somewhere here Azorious/Kim/Bluebird, in no particular order I might add
That's some progress already - we agree MrCurlyNoodles is probably town.
I'm not sure about AzoriusSenate, certainly not enough to vote him. My best guess right now is, he's town suffering from a bad case of tunneling and confirmation bias.
Belisarius still reads null, but Azorius' lack of evidence actually makes me less inclined to vote him today. Maybe it's the frustration in me speaking, that makes me wish they could be safely ignored for a while.
Kim also reads null. I'd vote him provided there was a reasonable case, but is there any to be made?
Bluebird looks like the best option so far, though it's not certain. Her latest posts offered a partial and not very convincing defense.
In post 323, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:In post 318, Witch_Hunter wrote:Smudger, MrCurlyNoodles, what should we do while they have their fight? Just watch and hope for good information? Take a side? There's still a while before the deadline, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing something.
I'm not sure. It feels like if we don't add on to the argument it's just going to fizzle out super quick (like it seems to already have). That being said I'm not really sure what to add past what we already have. I do agree that it's improbable for them to be a scum team but as scummy as Azorius' tunnelling is comments like this:
Are what make me suspicious of Belisarius as well (though still more suspicious of Azorius). He also seems to be hard on the Kim train for not a very well explained reason since early in day 1.In post 317, Belisarius wrote:Join me against Kim. It is your destiny. Together we shall rule this galaxy as father and son!
In terms of talking about other things while they argue it out, Kim and especially Bluebird's current inactivity is unhelpful but in their absence I'm not entirely sure what there is to discuss since they're not bringing anything new. In terms of what they've done so far did you have anything specific to talk about or bring up? Which one do you find scummier?
My opinion is, being inactive at this point in the game, when we have to either lynch scum or risk everything in LyLo tomorrow, is a mild scumread. And Bluebird is the scummiest of them two, since neither of them if contributing much but at least Kim isn't neglecting his defense, since he isn't actually being accused of anything.-
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In post 328, Smudger wrote:In post 32, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ Kim: Thank you for the post - seriously - but we have some miscommunication here. I meant, "would you post one of your logical analyses on this game?"
Then again, ignore it for now. I'll ask again later, when the game really gets going. Just from reading other games, I hadn't realized that takes a while to happen.
did this happen?
Not specifically, since readlists were frowned upon yesterday and later I forgot about it. It's a part of the game I have to get better at, now that you mention it - interacting more with my non-townreads. Probably not what you intended, but thanks for the advice.-
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In post 333, Kim wrote:In post 324, Smudger wrote:Kim who are your top three lynch candidates and why?
Top four candidates are easy, via process of elimination: you, Belisarius, AzoriusSenate, and Bluebird. Since last I posted, MrCurlyNoodles has shown both understanding of what's been happening in the game and an ability to adjust his thoughts when presented with new information (or new to him, at least).
Out of those four, as of now I think I'd put you as fourth-scummiest (or third-towniest, whichever you prefer). I probably have too much of a bias towards open-minded players, but you seem to be reading, rereading, and thinking about the game. Yay you!
These last three aren't in any particular order:
I've seen both town and scum tunnel on players before, but I haven't figured out how to tell the different alignments apart. AS's tunnel on Bel seems farfetched -- I particularly disliked 303. However, is 305 frustrated town? It feels like it to me, but I know I don't have the experience/skill/whatever to say so for sure.
Bluebird's lurking has moved her to null for me. I'm not sure it's scum-motivated lurking, but I can't rule it out. More answers/thoughts from her will hopefully help.
Belisarius' "trust me" argument for lynching me wasn't very townie, but he's dropped that now. I assume that he hasn't seen anything that changed his mind; at least he's consistent. My responses to his rationale for voting against me are in 53 and 154.
In post 331, Witch_Hunter wrote:at least Kim isn't neglecting his defense, since he isn't actually being accused of anything.
A small nugget of defense on my part: hiplop had me as his second-highest townread when he was NKed. All other things being equal, scum!Kim would have kept him alive.
In short, your lynching order is approximately like most people's today.
The bad thing is, there's no strong case on anybody.
On Azorius, FWIW, since this game is my only experience so far: scum faking frustration is hardly inconceivable, but his Day 1 was convincingly townie.
Can I have your opinion about something I posted a while ago?
Post 279, concerning Bluebird:Besides that, her ISO is strange. Too passive, answers questions but doesn't ask them nor does much that feels like she is actually involved in the game.-
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In post 353, Smudger wrote:In post 352, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ Smudger: What's with the change of mind? Is there a method to AzoriusSenate's madness after all, or do you just want to see where this goes?
I think we should go with it
Very well, let's go with it. I'll trust your read of the situation is the right one.
@ Belisarius:Stating intent to hammer. Please claim. And share any helpful last thoughts, just in case you flip town.-
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@ Smudger: Question to you as SE, what was the point of AzoriusSenate's play yesterday? I can understand a PR claiming to get a lynch, or making good accusations to drive a wagon and stay incognito, but not hisapparentlylunatic playstyle. Is that a good way to play cop/tracker, or just due to his inexperience?-
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In post 364, Kim wrote:Azorius was atracker? I was like 99% sure he was a cop who investigated me, got a Town result, and switched from me to Bel based on Bel's case on me. That was all I could think of that explained both his Day 1 and Day 2 posts.
Sorry, I don't see it - why would Azorius townreading you lead to him pushing Belisarius' wagon so hard? It's not as if he were the only one to state doubts* about your alignment.
*In Belisarius' case, "doubts".-
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In post 387, Kim wrote:@Witch_Doctor: Why did you lynch without giving MCN and Blue a chance to comment on what was happening?
Because the faster the lynch, the less time Belisarius and his scumbuddy would have to develop a strategy.
Long version: Smudger's post 353, where he refused to explain his change of heart, meant he couldn't say his reasons openly. What's the one thing town shouldn't talk openly about? Power roles. So, I figured Smudger seemed to think Azorius was a cop who had scumread Belisarius.
Rereading Azorius' posts, that explained his odd behavior, his fixation with Belisarius despite an apparent lack of arguments. Rereading other people's latest posts, it seemed Smudger was the only one to see it. Maybe Belisarius himself hadn't, considering the disdain he'd shown for Azorius' 'tunneling'.
So, lynching him ASAP might possibly save a cop's life. With all due respect to MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird, I still believe it was a chance worth taking.-
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@ Bluebird:Sorry about that. I thought it was the right thing to do, and it had nothing to do with neglecting your participation in the game.
On topic: What do you think about what's going on today?
@ Kim:If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?-
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In post 401, Kim wrote:I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:
In post 390, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ Kim:If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
- "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
- "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have: Whyis Smudger so sure?)
- "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
- "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
VOTE: Kim-
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In post 405, Kim wrote:In post 404, Witch_Hunter wrote:In post 401, Kim wrote:I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:
In post 390, Witch_Hunter wrote:@ Kim:If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
- "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
- "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have: Whyis Smudger so sure?)
- "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
- "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
VOTE: Kim
That puts me at L-1, by the way.State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.
Which step is where my logic breaks down?
Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.
You admitted the weak point yourself: "(What I didn't think of, but should have:Whyis Smudger so sure?)"
Basically, it doesn't fit your fondness for logic. You've been extremely cautious with your vote for the entire game, then suddenly join the Belisarius wagon without thinking a crucial detail?
In post 408, Kim wrote:
I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:
1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.
2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:
[...]
He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.
Nice try. It's flattering to see this depiction of me as a diabolical mastermind of sorts. Alas, it happens to be untrue.
1) The early hammer was a calculated risk. In hindsight, it didn't work, sure. But would it have been townier to wait, then risk MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird asking "Why are you all voting for Belisarius?" and either having no answer or having to expose AzoriusSenate after his effort not to claim PR?
2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.-
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By the way, the wiki agrees with my reasoning to hammer yesterday:
A quicklynch, as its name implies, is a lynch whose wagon builds in a relatively short amount of time.
Reckless Towns can do this on their own, of course, and the practice is frequently criticized for wasting a Day's worth of information.However, there are pro-Town reasons to do this - for instance, if a Cop claims an incriminating result on someone, the best thing to do is quicklynch the incriminated player so as to minimize the amount of information that the scum get when deciding what to do that Night.
When driven by scum, it is an extended quickhammer.-
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Also from the wiki, on buddying. Looking back, it matches Belisarius' behavior. Smudger and I didn't seriously suspect him for a good while, and his buddying made AzoriusSenate suspect one of us was scum. Pretty much a textbook example.
Buddying is a tactic used to subconsciously become perceived as less of a threat by another player. While this is usually done by scum, Townies have been known to do this as well.
This is typically accomplished by the buddying player acting unnaturally friendly to its target, either subtly or outright.Originally, this made it so that once the buddying scum died, it implicated the victim they were acting friendly toward. In addition, by budding up to a victim, they will become less likely to want to lynch the buddying player in the first place.More recently, though, this has become used as a pre-emptive accusation against anyone who acts nicely toward another player, regardless of intent.-
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