Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[toolenduso]

VOTE: Elyse

For beating me the last time we played together.

[toolenduso]

I don't think I'm supposed to know anyone else? I hope I didn't insult anyone with that. Sorry in that case. I am bad with names.

YOU WERE ONE OF THREE REVIEWERS FOR A GAME I NEVER GOT PAST THE REVIEW STAGE HOW CAN YOU NOT REMEMBER YOU DON'T LOVE ME!

[toolenduso]

I don't know if scumMetal would

necessarily

know or not know that there was a list of roles, but it is just one example of many in his ISO of him making posts that don't look calculated at all, which given his amount of experience I would kind of expect that they would be. Rather he's playing things very off-the-cuff and doesn't really appear to be trying to make himself look good, so he looks towny to me.

This post from Taly, however, does come across as a little worried about how he looks and a tad calculated. Worth pushing right now IMO.

VOTE: Taly

@Metal, I don't understand your scumread on Lemons.

@Myko, do you see anybody worth pushing yet?

[toolenduso]

Just did ISO reads. Myko looks town because of this post:

I think I'm voting someone town.

OddMusic looks pretty bad IMO. #156 was an overreaction out of nowhere and some of the reactions to the wagon against him kind of look like scum bussing/distancing when they're caught off guard by momentum building against a partner.

RC also looks pretty bad, mostly for the way he handled the OddMusic/Aquanim thing. He pushes OM with conviction, then drops it to advocate for a policy lynch on Aquanim (which is itself a weird thing to do this early on D1), then finds a reason to scumread Aquanim later on.

Taly looks just as bad upon re-reading his slot. Myko makes a good point about the wording of #176, and I also don't like this post:

But about Aquanim, I kind of agree with this, at least until Elyse goes into depth about why Aquanims behavior was scummy. Which was why my previous vote for Eektor was over RVS. (Since I still thought seriousness for discussion was still being founded.)

It looks like a half-stance he can use to change his mind later.

[toolenduso]

toolenduso

- Where have you been?

Been fairly busy IRL lately and the game is moving along at a good pace so I've had to spend time keeping up/catching up when I could.

Aqua, I'll get to your post tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

Just did ISO reads. Myko looks town because of this post:

I think I'm voting someone town.

This seems pretty slender to hang a townread on. Not sure I understand what you're getting at, but given your respective joindates I suspect you have much more experience with Mykonian than I do, so I suppose it's quite possible you see something meaningful here I don't.

Nah, this isn't meta. I don't think I've ever played with Mykonian. My thought with that post was that it's a pretty clear demonstration that myko doesn't care how he looks. Which is something I tend to see as town more than scum.

I assume this means you don't think RC's posts preceding #156 comparing Oddmusic's posts to a scumclaim were provocative, since you'd have to think that to think #156 was an "overreaction out of nowhere".
Which of the reactions in particular to Oddmusic's wagon strike you as scummy? The only reaction I remember being significantly discussed was mine...

OK that's my bad actually -- I was reading Odd's ISO and didn't click out of it to look at RC's post that provoked the response. In my head I remembered the antecedent being something much more low-key. I'll have to go back over that again with the context in mind and re-evaluate.

As for the reactions to it, I was thinking about these ones in particular:

-Insidious: Hops onto the Odd wagon nine posts after pisskop and right after the mod posts a votecount. His reasoning in #163 has a tone to it that could be interpreted as him looking through Odd's ISO knowing that momentum was building on his wagon and looking for reasons to call Odd a scumread.
-Elyse: In #168, she says she would be fine with voting for Odd but stops short of placing a vote. Doesn't give reasons but rather implies that it's all already been said, which very well may be true but looks like she's leaving a back door open to come after Odd should he look like the day's lynch.
-Aqua: More or less does the same thing as Elyse in #172 but is even less open about whether he'd vote for Odd. Most of what he says is a defense, but his wording ("I see where y'all be coming from on the Oddmusic tone read but I'm not quite sold") look somewhat like he's letting player know that maybe if they push Odd a little more he would be willing to join in.

Lest I be misunderstood, I'll say it right now -- I don't have Insidious or Aqua on the scum side of my reads list. Elyse leans more scum to me than those two, but she's not in my top three suspects atm either.

Rather, these are posts I would revisit with a fresh view if we see a flip on OddMusic.

...which makes your scumread on RC for pursuing that angle rather strange.

I don't follow you.

It doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me for a townie to keep their options open in expectation of new data, especially halfway down page 2. I for one do not have much of an opinion about a fair few of the players in this game even now since I think I lack sufficient data to make a decent read.

It's one thing to keep your options open and another to tell a specific player that you might change your read if they can persuade you.

[toolenduso]

All right, yeah, after looking back at #156 in context, it does look different. RC was being pretty pushy -- more so than his reasoning called for, I think. So that raises OddMusic to null.

Question:

Tool, what are your opinions on the most prominent posters so far?

Well, according to the activity overview the top five posters are Insidious, Aqua, You, RC and Elyse.

Insidious gives me a townvibe with his posting, but I'm wary of his wagon chasing -- he went from Aqua to Metal to OddMusic, and I believe all after they had built some momentum. This can easily be town, but it just raises my hackles a bit. I'd lean him town if I had to pick a spot for him.

Aqua also gives me townvibes with a few exceptions. His response to the OddMusic wagon was wishy washy and the phrasing of a few posts has seemed illogical. He leans more town for me though.

You look worse for voting RadiantCowbells IMO. The reasoning for scumreading RC didn't offer a lot of substance and the vote was placed at a convenient time when momentum seems to be shifting in RC's direction.

RC still looks bad though, for the reasons I mentioned before. Overall he just seems to be pushing players with more conviction than his reasoning warrants.

Elyse's posting and voting arc looks like town to me, but I know better than to think that she wouldn't be capable of making me think that as scum. Her response to the OddMusic wagon made me suspicious.

[toolenduso]

But if I was scum, wouldn't I do precisely that in order to get you to think that?

I'm still catching up but I wanted to stop for a second and mark this post for future use, because I don't think I've ever seen a clearer example of WIFOM on this site than this post. I'm not saying this makes RC scum necessarily (there's much more to look at in his ISO), but this sentence like...belongs in a textbook.

[toolenduso]

Boonskiies boonskiies. Boonskiies boonskiies boonskiies boonskiies. Boonskiies!

Also, Boonskiies, could you elaborate? Particularly on RC?

[toolenduso]

I mean, just compare Taly and IL's lists.

I'm not entirely sure what you're getting at here. Is it that Taly has less scumreads than IL, and his only one stated is on RC? I would take into account that Taly left some lurkers off his list.

No, I think he was talking about his previous post. As in, "compare Taly and IL's lists with pisskop's list."

That being said, TDA, can you explain a little more why you think pisskop's list is fake content?

After seeing things develop some more, I feel more sure about lynching Taly now. Here's an overview of his arc today:

-Overexplaining his own actions in a way that looks like scum who have made notes of how to defend their actions as they play (#113).
-Describing his own play in a way that looks like somebody who is not town describing a townie (#178).
-Trying to disguise his reasons for backing away from the mykonian vote (#239).
-Posts a reads list that doesn't offer any reasons why his only scumread is scummy (#259).
-Jumps on RC wagon (#286) when momentum starts to swing that way (to his credit, he already had RC listed as a scumread).
-Lets Odd talk him back into scumreading mykonian again pretty easily (#288), then revotes mykonian (#369).

[toolenduso]

Oy. This will take a bit to respond to.

[toolenduso]

The one thing that I question in it is the argument on 369. There was a lot of post happening there before Taly made his vote. It could be over-explaining, like tool described in 411, but the style of the post does strike me as genuine stream of consciousness.

It does look like genuine stream-of-consciousness. But I would submit that you can easily approach a stream-of-consciousness ISO read with confirmation bias.

Alright Tool, I agree with all your points in general and that they don't come from "normal" town players, however the reason that I switched my votes for now is that there's the alternate explanation that Taly is just super insecure as a player (read scum or town) in one of their first games.

That's fair, and it has crossed my mind as an explanation for some of this stuff. It's just that there are so many things I see in there that hit me wrong. I have to weigh the likelihood of the town explanation against the likelihood of the scum explanation, and with each piece of evidence I consider it gets harder to believe the town explanation in favor of the scum one.

[toolenduso]

UNVOTE: Taly

Lotta things going on right now. I need to think about this.

[toolenduso]

I don't really get why tool unvoted especially now that RC has stopped voting him as well

I thought he was still close to lynch.

OK so I don't see any reason for Taly's claim to necessarily be true. My hangup here is that it would make much more sense for scum to fakeclaim doc or cop, but then I realized that maybe Taly is a scum RB and just decided to claim his actual role but as town. Wouldn't surprise me.

The other thing about this is that Taly did it in response to a post from Elyse where she basically said "if you were town you would just claim instead of softclaim." It's like Taly saw that and thought "Elyse is telling me how to look town, so I'll do that."

On top of that (and I'll admit I haven't read Taly's last few books word-for-word, but rather skimmed), it looks to me like Taly is calling Elyse scum while talking to her like she's town (as in, "I hope you're happy with yourself," which implies that town has pushed another townie toward lynch, because why would say to scum that you hope they're happy with themselves?).

I do want to go back and actually read Taly's last couple of posts. Which might take a while, but hey, it's Sunday.

OddMusic needs to get in here before the mod.

[toolenduso]

It's true though, you should get a claim before shooting.

[toolenduso]

About 178 - I was just addressing the way mykonian reacted to my push and wondered if he was trying to show the idea that my reason for pushing him was just overreacting and the case had no real substance.

No wonder this doesn't make sense; I linked the wrong post. I meant #176.

About 239 -

Because exposing myself while full well knowing that people can put up a case that I am scum TOTALLY disguises reasons for wanting to back away from a vote to AVOID being thought of as scum.

You've misunderstood my point. I was saying that your original stated reason for backing away from the mykonian was a (partial) disguise of why you back away from the mykonian vote.

About 259 -

Did you even read my list?

Even though Aqua and Myko had a point that some of my reads weren't useful, I brought things to light that nobody talked about. (How RC worded herself)

No. Your reasoning went like this:

Spoiler: Read on RC

RadiantCowbells

– I think this is her overall behavior and meta, but her abrasiveness and confidence in her arguments is off-putting to me.

You find his playstyle off-putting, but you don't say that this makes him look scummy.

Especially with her arguments towards Aquanim and others she’s jumped on, it doesn’t have a lot of substance.

A reasonable person reading this sentence can assume that you're implying the lack of substance is scummy, but you don't directly say it. You don't go into detail on why it looks scummy to you over a lack of substance from other players like TDA or mykonian.

I’m impressed she seems to know quite a bit about “cognitive dissonance,” pressure, and other things she said she has applied in this game.

Not a statement about alignment.

She can be a rough townie, or a competent scum. So far, I haven’t seen much I can trust and my gut tells me she can manipulate others. Even though her scumhunting may be town-motivated, I just haven’t seen something I liked yet.

"I haven't seen something I liked yet" makes it look like a null read.

2) I gave reasons in later posts YOU JUST LINKED, saying how I don't think RC is the strongest scumread for me to wanting to lynch right now.

My point was that at the time you wrote the reads list, you didn't really articulate reasons as to why RC was scum. This makes it look like you didn't really have a lot of reasoning behind it, but needed to have it said that you were scumreading RC. Whether you gave reasons later is pretty irrelevant to that point.

3) So you say that my scumread who "didn't have information" was scummy, when several people so far have made bullets and small lists with literally nothing to back up why they think their reads are that.

At least I said something, do you think I'm scum for actually posting an analysis?

I'm not using this one thing to look at everybody. When I read an ISO I'm looking at a player's overall play in this game. Are you the only person in this game to not back up a read? No. Does that deconstruct my entire case against you? Also no. This is one thing out of many in your ISO that I've considered.

About 281 -

..........If you're giving me any credit for the RC wagon...........

Why are you saying I jumped on that when momentum came that way?

I didn't give you credit for the RC wagon.

.... Do you even know what you're talking about?

Spoiler: No I do not.

Lets Odd talk him back into scumreading mykonian again pretty easily (#288)

1) In the SAME POST, I said explicitly:

Either way, my vote for RC still stands.

And? I was talking about you scumreading mykonian, not voting him. Which, I mean, you went on to vote him anyway.

How is Odd convincing me to vote for Mykonian when all I said was:

You just opened my eyes up again about the topic of Mykonian. Yeah, the fact that Mykonian was not explaining himself was why I voted and put up a mini-case on him, I didn't trust it. Now looking back at it, I don't trust it that the only major reason he has given an opinion about anything was about a scumread directed to a post that put up a case about him not explaining his opinions.

I kept my vote, which instantly makes your entire claim and reasoning for linking that post saying that Odd talked me into scumreading him invalid. Plus, I even mentioned before hand I was still unsure of Mykonian.

Again, I said nothing about your vote. My point was that your response to Odd was part of a saga of you scumreading mykonian, townreading him, scumreading him, etc. and this part in particular looked like you shifting the responsibility of returning to your mykonian scumread onto a townie.

I think you're pulling reasons out of nowhere with little valid text to back it up.

It looks that way because you've misunderstood most of what I've said.

Now for the second part,

then revotes mykonian (369)

1) Did you not even read my post?

Or what PROMPTED it?

366 and 368 - pisskop and odd wanted to know what my thoughts on who to vote for the best day for lynching was.

I did tell them and elaborated.

2) This was a few several posts after my read on 259 --

My reads changed, and I explained why RC wasn't as scum to me(but she is still on radar) and why Mykonian was a better lynch to me after all.

I even said at the beginning to the response to that:

(Which may change even in this post because typing this helps me sort priorities)

Why is this even an argument to back up a case on me?

Because it's part of that saga I talked about of you waffling on mykonian. I wasn't trying to say that you vomited up a vote on mykonian out of nowhere. Literally all I said was that you voted him, and the reason I brought that up was because it's part of your overall record of interactions with mykonian.

It feels like you're nit-picking and leading to assumptions about my play to add onto a case that I am scum. The problem with this is:

You're working on things that have either been justified, overly-talked about, and even dismissed of

.

I see people who think these things make you look scummy and people who think they don't. I don't really remember any of these points being dismantled.

And they only look nitpicky because you're rebutting each point like it's an entire case by itself.

You

literally

could have read the rest of my posts on some of these to find out the explanation and answers to your case. This makes me think you're also voting against me not entirely on alignment reasons. You see that there is a wagon and you want to vote and hammer on it so you will find one less person in this game that doesn't align with your readings.

IIRC I was the first person to vote you, so no I did not see a wagon on you. That also makes it impossible for me to hammer you.

[toolenduso]

I've spent too long on Taly. I need to do some reads on other players.

[toolenduso]

Hang on a second here -- RC, you weren't being serious about that claim were you? Because I read it as just being a bit of silliness, but then metal comes in here acting like it's a real claim and you don't refute him.

Also, my avatar is from Smogon's "Create-a-Pokemon" project.

[toolenduso]

I'm here right now, mykonian.

@Taly -- Please reconcile these two statements:

I am a Town Role-Blocker

you can waste that second bullet of yours and when I flip town it may give people extra incentive to get you to answer questions instead of making statements.

Because the first statement says "I have the power to prevent you from killing me" and the second says "if you try to kill me tonight, you will succeed."

[toolenduso]

Taly, pisskop has already stated that he can't use his second shot today. He has to wait until tonight.

[toolenduso]

Finally done with ISOs.

Shallow townread on Boon for acting the way I remember him acting when he replaced into a town slot in the puppy-themed newbie I modded. I hope to actually go back and look at that so I can feel more sure about this.

Uneasy feeling about both eektor and TDA, who have both more or less coasted and successfully remained somewhere closer to the wings than center stage.

@TDA

, specifically: In #552, did you mean "lists" instead of "rests"?

@RCA:

In #494, you acknowledge pisskop's dayvig shot but seem fine with it, then in #508 (after the flip), you're pissed that he didn't get a claim first. Can you tell me why you weren't concerned about that in #494?

Seeing Metal's whole arc RE: Radiant's joke claim is making me suspicious. It's one thing to not be able to tell when a player is joking and another to trust their claims outright (because, assuming RC is town, scum would have no reason to believe that RC was lying, whereas town have to question claims without proof). Especially with the way RC "claimed" (very little pressure). Then in #560 he says he thought Annie was Boon for some reason, which I don't understand at all.

@Metal:

Why did you assume that Boon's real name is Annie?

Then the re-vote of RC in #563 just strikes me as being formed from some odd reasoning. I get that he was already suspicious of RC before the "adorable cop" claim, but

that's

what made him sure about RC being scum?

[toolenduso]

Sorry I haven't been doing much lately. I should be able to catch up and post today.

[toolenduso]

So Eektor, Pisskop, Boonskiies & Toolenduso with just left a week left to go. Who do each of you feel like you will end up voting for? Also, why?

I'm looking at you and Taly. Taly for reasons I've already listed, and you mostly for the more recent stuff (the day cop thing, the next post I'm going to quote, a couple other things.) I actually need to set my notes from your ISO and my notes from Taly's ISO side by side and compare because I feel pretty suspicious of both.

Anyways, I'm looking for an RC lynch. If I have to vote Taly to avoide a no lynch I will but I'm not entirely convinced that it's the best D1 lynch.

This looks very opportunistic to me.

Shallow townread on Boon for acting the way I remember him acting when he replaced into a town slot in the puppy-themed newbie I modded.

Have you seen him as scum?

I don't think so. That's why it's a shallow read. I'd like to see more from him so I can get a better one.

Mafia day-vig is probably more common than day sk?

I don't suppose anybody here can give an example of a mafia dayvig in a normal? Because I'm not really willing to entertain this idea unless I see that.

[toolenduso]

@TDA, specifically: In #552, did you mean "lists" instead of "rests"?

yes

Then I'm confused. Because in that post you said:

I mean it's not too hard to keep things people are saying straight that compiling rests is necessary.

But earlier in the game you said:

I think coming under pressure and giving out a reads list comes from a townie part of the brain.

Care to explain?

[toolenduso]

In #494, you acknowledge pisskop's dayvig shot but seem fine with it, then in #508 (after the flip), you're pissed that he didn't get a claim first. Can you tell me why you weren't concerned about that in #494?

I assumed it was a joke. I've never actually seen a real dayvig before, but I've seen tons of fake ones.

I can buy that.

@Metal:

Why did you assume that Boon's real name is Annie?

Post 414 "I'm actually really unhappy about Boon replacing in on a townread because if he's scum the chances are he'll never end up as a strong scumread." I assumed he was going back to this.

I didn't know who Annie was, you were the last town read. I made an assumption, sorry. lol

This still makes no sense to me. I don't see how either of those things leads somebody to think that RC was talking about Boon.

[toolenduso]

Upon further reflection, I feel more comfortable with a Taly lynch than a Metal lynch today. While Metal has done some pretty scummy stuff, I find it easier to explain those actions from a town perspective than I do explaining Taly's actions from a town perspective.

Spoiler: Metal_Examples

-#244 through #282 reads a little manufactured to me. Like he's coming back into the game after taking some time off and trying to show people that he's scumhunting by asking a bunch of questions/giving directives to people. The reason it looks this way is because some of the things don't really have a lot of substance to them ("how do you feel about lurkers?" "I want some reads out of you") and therefore seem like he felt obligated to put them there as opposed to really being interested.

Scum explanation:

He's trying to look like he's scumhunting, which makes him feel obligated to ask questions even if they don't really do anything.

Town explanation:

He's trying to get low post counters to post more, and as a newer player, this is just the most obvious way he can think of to do that.
-In #529, he accepts RC's ridiculous claim really easily.

Scum explanation:

As scum, he has no reason to disbelieve a townie's PR claim.

Town explanation:

As a new player, he doesn't have enough experience yet to know how ridiculous that claim was.
-In #563, he re-votes RC because of his "fakeclaim," after I call it "a bit of silliness."

Scum explanation:

He's trying to move the spotlight away from himself, or maybe he's just looking for a spot to place his vote?

Town explanation:

As a newer player, he sees something he doesn't understand (a joke claim) and jumps on it as weird/suspicious behavior.
-In #606, he gives about as noncommittal a stance on Taly (the other leading wagon) as it's possible to give.

Scum explanation:

Leaving open a reason for him to jump on a Taly wagon later. Possibly distancing from a buddy.

Town explanation:

Doesn't buy the cases against Taly.
-Claims VT prematurely in #714.

Scum explanation:

Is nervous and therefore claims early to avoid town lynching him.

Town explanation:

Doesn't know that town usually waits to claim until L-1.

Spoiler: Taly_Examples

-In #31, he more or less tells Elyse he might be persuaded to vote for Aqua if she can make a case.

Scum explanation:

Either he's having a hard time coming up with reasons to scumread people or he's afraid to do the dirty work himself, so he approaches another player about it.

Town explanation:

He's trying to keep an open mind about which players might be scum. The problem with that is that he's trusting another player, Elyse, who he should have no reason to trust.
-In many posts throughout his ISO, Taly provides long, detailed explanations of what he's doing and why he's doing it. However, he misses out on things other players are doing in the game like pisskop saying he's not able to take his second shot today and thinks that other players are talking about him when they clearly aren't.

Scum explanation:

Taly is very concerned with the way he looks and is trying as hard as he can to convince people he's town.

Town explanation:

Personality/playstyle.
-In #239, we learn that Taly partially hid his reasons for unvoting mykonian earlier in the game.

Scum explanation:

Taly didn't want to look bad, so he left out the part of his reasoning that made him look bad.

Town explanation:

Taly's given explanation (here) is that he was rattled by Elyse's pressure and was afraid of making himself look bad. Which is possible for a townie to do, but is really more indicative of scum IMO.
-In #259, posts a readslist where his only scumread is RC, who he lists as slightly leaning scum. Not much reasoning is given as to why this is.

Scum explanation:

He's having trouble faking scumreads.

Town explanation:

He's having trouble developing reads.
-In #288, he uses another player as his reasoning for scumreading mykonian again. Later he re-votes mykonian.

Scum explanation:

Again, having a hard time faking reads.

Town explanation:

OddMusic's words genuinely swayed him.

I could go into some other stuff in both ISOs, but I feel like those are the major points. I just have an easier time seeing metal's play coming from town than I do with Taly.

VOTE: Taly

[toolenduso]

I don't really see anything to say in response to #785 that isn't already obvious, so in the interest of not cluttering up the thread I'm going to go ahead and not respond to it unless someone other than Taly wants me to.

[toolenduso]

Also, the fact he shot an easy mislynch should change people's thoughts that it would be a scum slot anyways.

Very good point -- he had stated or implied suspicion of Metal, TDA and Boon and could have easily shot one of them instead with no questions asked.

Spoiler: #652

I can't help but think that the focus of the thread on active players today (it's mostly been on Taly, RadiantCowbells, myself, and some on Elyse and Mykonian) is a classic way for town to lose.

I think there are some people scumreading Taly simply because there is much more to be scumread about him, for the sole reason that he's posted so much more than most. Since eektor, TDA and especially boonskiies aren't saying much of anything, the actual volume of the reasons to scumread them is less. That does not, however, make them any less likely to be mafia than Taly.

Further, it encourages them to keep lurking whatever their alignment, since not only are they not being pursued for it, they are getting a demonstration in the thread of what's likely to happen to them if they DO speak up.

So basically your saying hey stop looking at the active players and look at the lurkers?

Not quite. I'm saying "look at the lurkers as well".

Good. I'm in full agreement.
We have a few lukers this game I feel, I think the biggest lukers right now are (no real order):
Elyse w/ 36 posts last post 28 hrs ago
TBA w/ 31 posts last post 12 hrs ago
Boon w/ 7 posts (I get he replaced in but still there should be more) last post 16 hrs ago
Tool w/ 21 posts last post 17 hrs ago
and Eektor w/ 27 posts but last posted 8 hours ago

Going through and picking out lurkers based on post count without any consideration of the actual material they've contributed indicates someone who's not seriously reading the thread IMO. As far as I'm concerned, Elyse and Tool don't belong on this list. The bit I really don't like is the implication (based on our previous conversation) that Metal believes these are the people that need pushing to produce more content. Elyse

definitely

doesn't belong on that list, and I don't see any other indication from Metal that that's what he actually believes - but that's still what he said here.

You're right, that was a little weird. But IMO it still fits within the realm of believability for newbtown (or somebody who's not used to interpreting statistics, for that matter).

Spoiler: #122

I'm going to hold it against you but lets see how everything else goes.

For now time to get more information out of others.

Who in particular do you want to get more information out of and why?

Literarily everybody because I have only one read at the moment.

This goes back a fair way but I don't feel like Metal made good on a desire to "get more information out of others". I mean, yes, there are some questions in #244 through #282 but I don't see him really trying to accomplish a scumread, or pressure anyone, at that stage. The questions read like they were asked for the sake of asking questions. This is pretty subjective, I have to admit.

I did address this one actually:

Spoiler: Metal_Examples

-#244 through #282 reads a little manufactured to me. Like he's coming back into the game after taking some time off and trying to show people that he's scumhunting by asking a bunch of questions/giving directives to people. The reason it looks this way is because some of the things don't really have a lot of substance to them ("how do you feel about lurkers?" "I want some reads out of you") and therefore seem like he felt obligated to put them there as opposed to really being interested.

Scum explanation:

He's trying to look like he's scumhunting, which makes him feel obligated to ask questions even if they don't really do anything.

Town explanation:

He's trying to get low post counters to post more, and as a newer player, this is just the most obvious way he can think of to do that.

Spoiler: #282

Quick post time

Pisskop -

Just get in here when you can and give us some reads.

Taly -

Question:

Since you basically just did a read, what do you think about the people who have

not

responded? Also, what do you think about my reads?

I think we have heard from everyone except RC, who I do want to hear from but I will give just a little more time before I make a fuss about it.
I don't have any major issues with your reads. I disagree with a few, notably Tool and Odd but otherwise they seem okay. My issue with your Tool read is I feel like he hasn't said enough for you to place him on this list as just neutral, but that may be my own issues with his low post count (although his last post is extensive). Odd I feel like should be a cautious scum lean that would change to probably town if RC is were to flip scum.

With that last part said VOTE: RadiantCowbells. RC makes me nervous, I don't really like the push on Odd then the switch over to Aqua. I see this as the best D1 lynch right now and the flip, either way, would provide us with the most information.

This has been gone over before, but I simply don't think that there's any justification for the statement that a RadiantCowbells flip would give "the most information". The flip which would give the most information this day is Taly, and that's been obvious all day. Metal acknowledges that a Taly lynch would give more information in #682, for some reason which seems unrelated to me ("slips" pointed out by Elyse - I don't see why this would make a Taly lynch more informative, as opposed to (hypothetically) more likely to flip scum). That being said, I don't see why a town-Metal made that statement about an RC flip. The only way I can make that make sense is, essentially, he's scum and making it up as he goes along.

It makes about as much sense to me as him assuming that RC's "result" on Annie was actually a result on Boon. And for the same reason, it doesn't tell me much about his alignment -- it doesn't really make sense to me whether Metal is town or scum. If he's town, why does he think RC's info would give more information than a flip on somebody who's had more attention paid to them and who he doesn't have information about? If he's scum, why push such a shallow angle on RC when there were far easier things to pick on?

[toolenduso]

Boon

Sometimes I forgot who I'm talking to.

[toolenduso]

tool, what do you of eektors play last week?

Last week, specifically? Like, March 1-7?

[toolenduso]

More of the same compared with his play before he went on V/LA, really. It's pretty low-key and mostly noncommittal. I wouldn't be surprised if his slot was scum, but I think town has better options today.

[toolenduso]

What do you think of his play since he came back from V/LA, mykonian?

[toolenduso]

What would you do, or think, if I flipped scum?

I would start by going back and looking at the way people interacted with you and your wagon during D1, then move from there.

Would you think my reads on everyone would be invalid?

Yes, as a matter of principle.

Who do you think would be the most likely suspect

(my partner)

if I flipped scum?

I don't think answering this question before your flip helps town, and could in fact help scum. Suffice to say, I have some ideas.

[toolenduso]

Wow, somehow I totally missed the questions you asked about if you flipped town. Lemme answer those now, even though...for some reason you don't want me to? Even though you said in that post that you wanted everyone to answer?

[toolenduso]

If you were to flip town:

Who would you suspect to be scum?

Again, I don't think it's to town's advantage to have a bunch of people answer this question.

What would you think about my prior claims and cases on who I thought was scum?

Claims? Not sure what you mean about that.

Cases? I mean, I would look over them again to see if anything was more persuasive upon second reading (or third in some cases), but other than that -- just because a person is town doesn't make them right.

How much of a help have I been as town - if my flip revealed that I was being truthful?

Well you've evoked responses from a lot of people, so if you are town then we'd have a lot to look at. But I'm not really sure why this point matters. Are you, like, asking for feedback on your play?

[toolenduso]

I NEVER said that I didn't want to hear what you said

Are you being serious right now? This post right here:

Plus, you've made your vote and read on me fairly obvious - this answering post is just filler.

...isn't you telling me that you don't care what I have to say? Because that's exactly how it looks.

I mean if it's a misunderstanding then OK, but I don't understand how you put those words together in a sentence and mean anything else.

Also:

I honestly believe at least half the scum team is still bussing on my wagon, and pushing for my lynch.

Please define the word "bussing."

[toolenduso]

Scum reads and my reasoning,

Same answer as what I said about your cases.

my claim on being a town PR,

Uh...if you flip town, then we'll have your role confirmed. What thoughts could I possibly have about that that would sway my view on the game?

most of what I've said so far in this game to my defense.

Wouldn't really matter -- what would matter is the way other people still alive reacted to your defense.

If you're town, then once you're dead your words don't have a whole lot of bearing on the game.

[toolenduso]

I didn't say that I didn't want to hear you.

Then you ought to work on the way you word things.

Keep in mind, I can be using some very poor term usage right now.... But what I mean by bussing?

>At least 2 people are pushing for something to happen in a very strategic but off-handed way.

OK that makes a lot more sense. For future reference, "bussing" means one scum player either voting or pushing a case on their partner (ie, throwing them under the bus).

some of the people on my wagon, are coordinating with one another - or they're just trying to push for a lynch where there are several factors that have played along with it indicating that it is either false, or a weak case.

Care to name names?

[toolenduso]

*Sigh*

And I've fallen into the trap of walling with a waller. I'm going to spoiler this and then close MS for the night, I think.

Spoiler: Taly response

Uh...if you flip town, then we'll have your role confirmed. What thoughts could I possibly have about that that would sway my view on the game?

You do realize, if I flip town... That'd give other people a reason to scrutinize you, right?

Of course. But what does that have to do with your role?

Plus, it'd validate all my "genuine posts" to be actually genuine in this game.

True. Still doesn't make you right.

It'd shed a whole other light on what I've said as a whole, and that should at least make you re-evaluate your game.

As I constantly am, yes.

The people who reacted to my defense - their alignment and motives - are to be questioned for my town flip.

I agree. In fact, that's what I said.

My words DO gain validity if in a town flip,

Validity, yes. Weight, no. I would look at your posts through a lens of knowing that you were town, but again, that doesn't make you correct. I have no idea why you would think that.

It would say that I was telling the truth, and SHOULD give - at least a townie brain - incentive to go back and investigate other possible roles on who voted, and why.

I feel like you meant something other than "roles" here, and therefore I'm having trouble understanding what you're saying.

Sorry, you might want to think about the way you perceive and represent things.

You can either blame other people for not understanding you or you can work on ways to make what you're saying easier for those people to understand. Which one would you rather rely on -- the one you can control, or the one you can't?

[toolenduso]

One last thing before I go to bed though, for people in the game not named Taly. I feel like Taly asking this question:

What would you do, or think, if I flipped

town?

... What would you think about my prior claims

...which was later clarified...

Claims? Not sure what you mean about that.

my claim on being a town PR,

...makes no sense from a town POV.

Why? Because it makes no sense, if you're town, to ask people what they will think about your roleclaim if you flip town. Your role will be revealed by the mod at that point. I don't buy that even somebody with as little experience as Taly wouldn't know that. I think this comes from scum who, in the heat of argument, had a lapse in thinking hypothetically from a town perspective.

[toolenduso]

Prod dodge in case I can't post before 6 pm. I will post later today.

[toolenduso]

OK couple of things:

-I seriously do not understand RC's weird paranoia about pisskop. Mafia dayvig makes little sense to me and SK dayvig makes absolutely zero sense to me. Mafia dayvig because since when do scum get both a nightkill and a daykill? And why would he use it on a player who could have been easily mislynched? SK dayvig because since when do SKs get both a nightkill and a daykill? And why would he out himself as a target for scum to kill so early in the game? And if there were both a mafia faction and an SK faction, what mod/reviewers in their right mind would let that SK make kills during the day and during the night? That's four kills by the end of N1. I mean, come on.
-At first glance, the idea of having pisskop wait until D2 to take his second shot makes sense to me, if for no other reason than that it should kill any doubts in his claim. But I want to mull over the options a little more and make sure I'm not missing some potential pitfall.
-Yes, I buy RC's claim. I actually saw something earlier today when he was responding to me that I thought could be a crumb:

I think that if Taly is scum, it will be extremely, extremely obvious, like far moreso than it is now, later down the line.

-Aqua makes a good point about Metal's stance on Taly, but I think eektor's stance on Taly looks worse:

Well, according to Taly, he thinks two scum is pushing hard to lynch him as a town pr. If Taly flips town, those two people should be getting a whole lot of scrutiny, something scum wouldn't want.

Not to mention the way he interacted with OddMusic, which was to vote him in #146, then basically ignore him until he got killed.

I plan on going back through all ISOs to look at interactions with the Taly wagon/Taly himself, but as of right now I'm going to vote eektor.

VOTE: eektor

[toolenduso]

Look, Radiant. It's fine to question the validity of pisskop's claim. Recent games have taught me to at least allow for the possibility of scum doing things/having roles that make no sense to me (see ffery's Edgar Allan Poe UPick).

However, as far as I can tell it's not really important to hash that out right now. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to want to ask pisskop to hold off on his shot until tomorrow, right? And if that's the case, we don't have to waste time chasing our own tails over whether he's town -- right? Rather, the conversation should be about how we want to handle pisskop's shot ------- right? Which means that pisskop isn't going to be the lynch today anyway, and therefore we should be talking about who we

are

going to lynch today --------------------------------- right?

Personally, I just don't see this back and forth between you and pisskop as being all that productive for town, especially given that there are other big issues we should be tackling.

Just saying.

[toolenduso]

@TDA

: You responded to my question about your posts concerning reads lists a while ago, and they explained the bit I was having trouble with. I thought you were saying in one post that readslists are scummy and then saying in another that they were townie, but your explanation makes sense and I think I just misunderstood you.

@Aqua

: I don't want to go for an IL lynch. Overall he comes across as town to me.

Metal looks more lynchable to me upon rereading his ISO for interactions with Taly. Eektor still looks bad. I want to compare the reasonings and then post them later today with all the relevant posts linked.

Basically -- I don't want to lynch anyone outside of {eektor, Metal} today.

@Pisskop

: Sorry if you've already stated this somewhere, but how would you feel about holding off on your second shot until tomorrow? My reasoning here is that it would end any doubts about you being town.

[toolenduso]

Is nobody interested in an eektor lynch?

[toolenduso]

Please don't do that. I would very much prefer a metal lynch over an insidious lynch.

[toolenduso]

I think that's L-1

[toolenduso]

What? You just said we should lynch metal over lemons

P-Edit: That's @pisskop

[toolenduso]

Like 25 minutes and I'll post my reasoning for eektor, I'd appreciate it if anyone online could respond.

[toolenduso]

Stuff on eektor:

-Wishy washy stance on Taly in #278.
-Drops it later in favor of myko, IL and aqua. But in that post (#537) he says "even though I have my doubts," which lets him come back later if it looks like nobody else will get lynched today.
-#630 looks like eektor setting up a wagon on two players pushing Taly after Taly flips town. He even puts the onus for this on Taly ("according to Taly...") This also makes sense with his somewhat-dropping of his read on Taly.
-More setting up pushes on players following a Taly townflip in #828, this time Taly asked for it (though I will point out that I had already talked in the thread about how this doesn't help town).

[toolenduso]

that's just taly interactions, but i assume others already know the rest

[toolenduso]

Wait, maybe RC has a point. Worst case scenario:

-We lynch town today.
-Pisskop shoots a townie tonight.
-Scum kills a townie tonight.
-We wake up tomorrow with 8 players left, 3 of which are presumably scum -- MyLo.

Worst case scenario if we no lynch today:

-Pisskop shoots a townie at night.
-Scum kills a townie at night.
-We wake up tomorrow with 9 players left, 3 of which are presumably scum.
-We can afford one mislynch, after which we go to LyLo.

Obviously this turns out better if we lynch scum, if pisskop shoots scum, if a scum kill gets blocked, etc.

But by no lynching now, what we're basically doing is making the worst case scenario just a little bit better for town, right? Because we shift today's lynch to tomorrow, after which we would have two townies removed from the pool of possible mislynches.

This is making sense to me right now. Does anybody have a good reason why we should lynch today instead?

[toolenduso]

Well that changes things.

UNVOTE: eektor

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Eektor's lynch doesn't appear possible, and while I would rather see him lynched I do see the case for Metal too based on interactions with Taly.

[toolenduso]

Catching up

[toolenduso]

I feel like scum would have taken a side and hardbussed one of them. Two leading wagons on scum ending in apathy just doesn't seem right because it puts both in a shitty position again tomorrow.

I think others have kind of hit on this already, but I just think there are too many possible explanations here to take that as evidence.

That being said, there is something we can take out of the situation, and that's to look at the way people interacted with those two wagons toward the end of the day. Which is what I'm going to do next, re-read the end of the day.

If there is one scum between metal and IL, I think it's IL.

This is a false dichotomy eektor is taking from another player.

@Pisskop: What do you think about town directing your second shot? Would you abide by town's choice?

[toolenduso]

OK so a couple things to talk about here...

Looking back over the end of the day, I'm not exactly sure how much can be taken from it. There were lots of people saying they would be willing to compromise to avoid a no lynch, but I see that coming from scum bussing scum, scum reluctant to avoid a partner and town without having any way to distinguish between them. We have some weirdness from pisskop right at the end but I trust he's town.

A couple things to talk about though.

How many people who are here would policy lynch Boonskiies?

This post needs to be noted for the future.

Well, if you still don't want to talk about that, I think I've adequately made my point.

Well, we went over it again, ended up on the same result. I've tried to explain the difference between scumminess and weird, you find ways to convince yourself weird is scummy. Of course it's not going anywhere, argument doesn't change with what the feelings of others are.

Only one way to find out, isn't there?

vote metal

I'm saying I hammered town. Still think he's scum?

I'm less convinced he's gonna flip scum than I was a few days ago

heh, already backing out?

lol.

Tomorrow you are going to say you know all along, I guess?

anyway, I'm on in 2 hours anyway.

vote IL

Mykonian, could you explain the reasoning behind these two votes?

Alright.

My target is Mykonian.

Keep in mind that chances of a RB on scum side are quite low.

Good luck.

Didn't notice this before. Anybody who has experience with RC, is RC the kind of player who would announce his investigation target just to mess with scum, then investigate somebody else during the night?

[toolenduso]

Well that changes things.

UNVOTE: eektor

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Eektor's lynch doesn't appear possible, and while I would rather see him lynched I do see the case for Metal too based on interactions with Taly.

What interactions? I had a weak scum read on him and asked a few questions.

I'd like to hear what people have to say before answering that.

[toolenduso]

That was in response to Elyse, not Metal lol

[toolenduso]

Here is the point where I wish I had more experience designing setups because now I'm actually starting to worry about the possibility of an SK with a daykill/scum with one daykill.

I mean it sounds ridiculous to me but I've been very wrong about what is and isn't ridiculous for scum to have before. Like, recently.

If anybody has examples or insight into this, I would appreciate some input. Otherwise, I'm going to dig a little.

[toolenduso]

Nevermind. Just found the mini normal archives, which made that a lot easier to research. Here's a game from 2013 with a non-consecutive day serial killer:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=25003

So it's not unprecedented. It looks like town dayvigs and nighttime sk's are far more common though. Interestingly enough, pisskop's actions so far don't exclude the possibility of a non-consecutive day sk. But in the game I linked it looks like the day sk didn't have to submit his kill publicly, which I think makes sense. If you're going to require the SK to kill during the day, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to make them announce it. Kind of unfair to the sk imo.

Here's a game with just a straight-up day serial killer: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=4299

Also where it looks like the sk didn't have to submit kills publicly.

I mean, I guess it's still possible that daySKPisskop decided to declare the kill so that he could claim dayvig and ride on the cred, but I find that unlikely and if it's the case I would probably nominate pisskop for a scummie after the game is over.

So...it's possible, but I don't think so.

As for the possibility of scum with a daykill, I can't find one in the archives. Which would seem to indicate it's not something that would happen in a mini normal, but that doesn't mean it's impossible.

Here's one with a mafia day rolecop: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=8430

But obviously that's a different story than if you're going to give scum a daykill.

[toolenduso]

Anybody who has experience with RC, is RC the kind of player who would announce his investigation target just to mess with scum, then investigate somebody else during the night?

Mykonian, could you answer this?

[toolenduso]

OK. The reason I was asking was because I was wondering of the scumteam might have seen that RC was going to investigate mykonian, and killed RC instead of pisskop because they didn't want the cop getting a guilty. But given the number of people who say they found it likely RC was just posturing, I don't think this amounts to much. Just wanted to ask around to see if there was anything there.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: eektor

Aqua, you know I'm an alt. How come you haven't mentioned it in the thread?

Where did this come from? Like, why ask this all of a sudden?

I think it's stupid to lynch boon.

Why? And do you think he's not worth pushing? Because I'm kind of leaning in that direction.

I should have been more careful about the dude. I don't like him now I reread.

I'd like to hear more about this. I've found myself unable to get much of a read on him.

[toolenduso]

As for IL

Speculation on such things isnt going to yield fruit.

We need suspects. Not what-ifs.

I still like boon, hasn't said anything and he sheeped RC

Why are either of these at all reasons to like boon?

This is just filler, he took one post and decide to reply to it. He didn't take the time to see the context of the post in reference to metal voting for boon and pushing for a boon's lynch. Nothing town here, more like lazy scum trying to appear to be scumhunting.

Does IL being in the hospital not offer a reasonable explanation for this?

Boon, you are the laziest scum I've ever seen. You skip the damn post which was 2 posts after that one where I say I want you lynched. If you flip town I'm going to be pissed and fucking recommend you be banned for playing against your win condition, if you are scum your damn teammates should be voting your weak ass for the same reason. Everyone vote this idiot please or Pisskop just shoot the fucker.

Am I the only one who finds this reaction weird? I mean, why get this mad at somebody you think is scum? For that matter, why get this mad at anyone simply for being inactive?

Semi-crazy theory that i thought of, could you be scum. Your posts are very well thought out and read like you know a bit more than the rest of us. You wanted to kill both Odd and Taly D1 (but in fairness most of us did) and now your pushing me so 3 town pushes but are saying we need to ignore a boon lynch because it won't tell us anything. But that's just a theory

Why is it crazy (or semi-crazy) to think that Elyse could be scum?

[toolenduso]

IL had a pretty odd day 1

Do know that you replaced IL...?

Piss: Even though some of his posts are short and a bit...direct, they feel genuine

Did you miss the part about his claim?

[toolenduso]

So, it kind of seems like people are giving eektor a pass with the general reasoning of "Meh, his posting looks genuine to me at times."

I laid out my reasoning on eektor in #1179, with another point in #1334. Could people give me some reasoning as to why this doesn't look like scum to you, based on my points?

[toolenduso]

Semi-crazy theory that i thought of, could you be scum. Your posts are very well thought out and read like you know a bit more than the rest of us. You wanted to kill both Odd and Taly D1 (but in fairness most of us did) and now your pushing me so 3 town pushes but are saying we need to ignore a boon lynch because it won't tell us anything. But that's just a theory

Why is it crazy (or semi-crazy) to think that Elyse could be scum?

My theory was crazy because I literally pieced the whole case together just to see reactions. Really I liked the responses from Elyse, and that's why I didn't respond to the last post from her. I was hoping more people would say something about it but not sure what I would get from people at this point so my semi-crazy theory was in fact just a crazy reaction test for Elyse.

So...why call it semi-crazy in post #1412?

@Mykonian, eektor and TDA

: I asked you some questions in posts #1443 and #1444 that I don't think you've answered yet.

[toolenduso]

Semi-crazy theory that i thought of, could you be scum. Your posts are very well thought out and read like you know a bit more than the rest of us. You wanted to kill both Odd and Taly D1 (but in fairness most of us did) and now your pushing me so 3 town pushes but are saying we need to ignore a boon lynch because it won't tell us anything. But that's just a theory

Why is it crazy (or semi-crazy) to think that Elyse could be scum?

My theory was crazy because I literally pieced the whole case together just to see reactions. Really I liked the responses from Elyse, and that's why I didn't respond to the last post from her. I was hoping more people would say something about it but not sure what I would get from people at this point so my semi-crazy theory was in fact just a crazy reaction test for Elyse.

So...why call it semi-crazy in post #1412?

So it wouldn't be fully ignored.

That makes no sense. Calling something semi-crazy doesn't make people pay attention to it. I just feel like the wording is off with that post and now you're trying to apply retroactive reasoning to it.

Which is also how I feel about Boon's case on me. Some of the points in there really look like he was going through my ISO looking for things to call scummy, as opposed to looking through it to find things indicative of my alignment.

I feel like I need a good old fashioned ISO readthrough to get my head back into this game.

I'll get to Aqua's case on mykonian next.

[toolenduso]

And yet, without really noticing, you totally ruled out Boonskiies from the pool you said you were looking for scum in. I don't think you deliberately tried to defend him, beyond saying he wasn't a good lynch today on policy... it just slipped out that pursuing Boonskiies was totally off the table for you.

Well, going over what what myko said, this does make sense. I still want to look over ISOs before I make a decision on my vote, with an eye toward how eektor fits into all of this.

I also am wary of how quickly the wagon built on mykonian.

[toolenduso]

Just popping in to dodge a prod and let everybody know I'm working on ISO reads and a couple other things. I'm close to halfway done and expect to get back into this tonight or tomorrow morning.

[toolenduso]

I feel better about a Metal wagon than a Myk wagon.

VOTE: Metal

I hope at some point we can pay more attention to eektor.

Spoiler: My reread of the second half of Metal's ISO

-#660 and #669 are the culmination of Metal responding to Aqua's cautioning the town not to forget about lurkers by listing the lurkers and then realizing that some of them weren't lurkers at all, which was pretty much just him letting Aqua drive his actions. This happens later when he votes Myk after Aqua's case.
-#1012 is another good example of this, but a particularly weird one. He gives a list of three people he wants town to consider lynching, then all it takes is Aqua asking about eektor for Metal to say eektor should be on the list as well. It looks like scum testing the waters for as many lynches as possible/not having a valid reason to scumread people.
-Metal's vote for RC in #1143 is weird because I don't think there was like any support for an RC lynch at that point. There are several possible scum explanations, him not caring about lynching because he's not town/being too scared of how he would look if he voted for IL/not wanting to vote for a buddy. This happened the day before the D1 deadline.
-Same with the vote for mykonian in #1202. RC was the only other person voting myk at that point, and it's p weird in my opinion that so close to deadline he goes from scumreading RC to voting with RC on a wagon nobody else is interested in.
-He finally votes for IL in #1263, but it's an hour before deadline and he makes sure to point out that everybody else made him do it by not going along with his unpopular wagons.
-Level of anger at Boon in #1349 isn't justified and therefore seems manufactured.
-The whole "semi-crazy" and "just a theory" thing in #1412 doesn't make sense given his later explanations. I asked him about this and he said he put that in there as a reaction test, but if you want to reaction test then it doesn't make sense to say that your read isn't even really a read, but more just a wild idea. I think this comes from a scummy mindset of wanting to test the waters and give yourself an out if people don't agree. Then I ask him about it later and he applies retroactive reasoning.

[toolenduso]

I have my doubts about mykonian but I'm not joining a wagon with eektor and metal on it.

[toolenduso]

Well I feel better about the mykonian lynch after his self-hammer, so I may have some things to re-think here. You might have a point about Metal not having any good options except to vote for Mykonian, Aqua, but that doesn't really tell us much about Metal's alignment.

As to your question about Elyse, I'm not exactly confident in her being town. I have her at null-town on my list, and that's based mostly on gut vibes -- things like having a similar thought pattern as her, more or less agreeing on reads, feeling like her posts come from a town mindset. But nothing really that solid. I'm certainly more comfortable voting with her than I am with eektor, Metal and even TDA.

The time she beat me as scum, btw, was when she jumped at an opportunity to bus her partner before any other town did and I was dumb enough to think that scum would never do that. It was my first game back on site in like six years and I was kind of a de facto newb. She was definitely a good player in that game, but I wouldn't have trusted her so much if it wasn't for that partner-bussing. In this game we don't have that.

[toolenduso]

To narrow the pool of suspects, generally.

[toolenduso]

I can get behind a mykonian lynch.

VOTE: mykonian

He's at L-1 now.

I'll just leave this here.

[toolenduso]

I mean, TDA's and metal's votes too. But I doubt that all three are scum together and I just wanted to point that one out to be like "hey guys, remember that time I wanted to lynch eektor?"

[toolenduso]

Any particular reason you don't put Bellaphant on that list?

Her vote came pretty close to deadline and I took it as being a vote made to avoid a no-lynch. Not that that makes her town, but compared with eektor, TDA and metal (in that order) her mykonian vote looks better IMO.

[toolenduso]

I feel like it makes sense to no-lynch today. It eliminates possibilities.

[toolenduso]

Aqua and Elyse, I see your points. They make sense. Maybe I'm just not as sure in my reads as you two are or something, because while I do think there are some predictable scum kills out there, I'd feel more comfortable knowing that I was right about at least one of those slots being town. I mean I do think one of you two would probably die if we go to night, but there's always the chance that I'm wrong or that scum kills somebody I don't have a good read on. It's mainly for that reason that I'm thinking it would be a good idea to no lynch.

If I were to vote right now, it would be for eektor. If I were to vote for a wagon that I think could actually go through and is also likely scum, it would be for Metal.

[toolenduso]

@Elyse

: This is probably going to be hard, but I'm going to ask you to reassess toolenduso. I townread him too for a long time... but I've begun to not like the way he's kind of tagged on the end of a lot of wagons after they gathered momentum (Taly and Metal day 1, Metal day 2).

Uh, well actually I was the second person to vote for Taly and that was after RC voted him and then switched his vote like 20 posts later.

Vote Count 1.04 - up to post #128.

Taly[1]: Toolenduso

With the metal stuff you can consider that I was trying to get people to vote for eektor for a while and was trying to avoid no-lynches.

VOTE: eektor

I want to see where this goes.

[toolenduso]

I think that MC believing the cute cop ... (isn't) scummy.

Why not?

[toolenduso]

Boon, I would really like to know why you voted for Elyse just now and also why you unvoted.

[toolenduso]

The case against Bella was pretty weak IMO. I can go into detail later if you want but the short version is: "straw man argument with a flawed premise, misunderstanding/misrep of what Bella was saying, unspecified reasonings that involves IL but not Bella."

I can't really say much about your conversation with eektor because it has revolved around one sentence in #1727 that is worded in a way I cannot understand.

[toolenduso]

Yes, I want to see your thoughts in detail.

OK:

So you are town reading tool just because he thinks I'm scummy. I guess you are town reading everyone in this game as they all have me as one of their main scum suspects.

This is a version of the strawman argument because it argues that Bella townreads everybody who scumreads eektor. Obviously this is said tongue-in-cheek, but even then the premise is flawed because eektor is saying that "everyone in this game" has eektor as one of their main scum suspects.

I could go through and try to find everybody's most recent statements about eektor, but if it's true that everybody has eektor as one of their main suspects then why have I been more or less alone in trying to push an eektor lynch for like the past three days now?

Hence, flawed premise.

Then you say I must be scum because you are acting different than in the newbie game we were scum together and I'm still scum-reading you? Well, shouldn't you be acting different in this game if you were scum when I knew you were scum in the other game?

OK re-reading this now I see that I misunderstood what eektor was saying -- I thought he was arguing that Bella was acting the same as in their scum game together. Regardless, the problem with the argument is that it is only an argument for why Bella

isn't necessarily town

from that one point, which is not the same as an argument for why Bella

is actually scum.

If eektor was trying to imply that Bella is intentionally acting differently because she knew eektor would know what her scum game looked like, then eektor's point is basically a hypothetical with no support behind it.

I have been scum reading IL from the beginning ... You haven't done anything to convince me that you are town.

Fair enough, but that doesn't give me much to think about in the way of determining whether Bella is town or scum. I wasn't scumreading the IL slot before he replaced out, so I don't share this view.

[toolenduso]

Prod dodge.
Tomorrow.

Well?

Sorry didn't finish my post, so yes I would vote for Bella. With whats there for IL and Bella I could go for a Bella lynch in our current situation. And to reiterate what I've said before IL only got a break from me because he wasn't around

This doesn't make me feel any better about the prospect of lynching Bella.

Aqua, I know you haven't exactly been gung-ho about a metal lynch, but would you consider it today? I kind of want to vote for him and I would feel more comfortable with you on the wagon.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: Tool

Sheep me. It's correct.

Spoiler: Nope.

[toolenduso]

I'd also like to point on Tool's lack of mentioning my push earlier on him. He just wanted it to fall under the radar, really.

Right, except for the time where I did mention it:

...I just feel like the wording is off with that post and now you're trying to apply retroactive reasoning to it.

Which is also how I feel about Boon's case on me. Some of the points in there really look like he was going through my ISO looking for things to call scummy, as opposed to looking through it to find things indicative of my alignment.

[toolenduso]

Why would having me vote for Metal make you more comfortable?

Because you're my top townread.

Also, what is your actual read on Boonskiies?

Scumleaning. Part of me thinks that this style of play doesn't come from scum who are concerned about looking townie, but my personal experience with Boonskiies makes me think it more likely that he could be the kind of player who would replace into a scum slot like this and just decide to have fun with it -- in fact, his play fits in pretty great with that explanation.

@Toolenduso

: I assume you think Eektor and Metal are two of the three scum (if that is not true, say so). Who do you think the third mafia is?

That is true, though I haven't re-read their ISOs for associatives yet because I don't like to do that before flips.

The third would be between TDA and Boon, with an edge toward TDA. But ideally we would have a scumflip or two to do associatives with before I go sifting through my third-tier scumreads.

[toolenduso]

I think that MC believing the cute cop ... (isn't) scummy.

Why not?

Well, I don't think that there is any validity to Eelyse's argument - I doubt that there is any reason to think that scum are more likely to believe a crazy claim than a townie, and on top of that, I think that MC's explanation is reasonable - that he played on a site where sometimes standard roles have funny names or something like that.

Why do you think that it's scummy.

Because I do think that scum are more likely to believe a townie's claim wholesale, and newbscum wouldn't be familiar enough with the roles to recognize which ones are clearly fake. But the actual claim aside, it's the gut reaction of believing another player's claim that has me worried -- town have cause to be suspicious (with some exceptions, obv) whenever another player claims.

[toolenduso]

Why would having me vote for Metal make you more comfortable?

Because you're my top townread.
...

What actual difference does it make if I vote for Metal, though?

Well for one, it eliminates a slot on the wagon for scum to bus. Two, I feel more comfortable voting with my townreads. I know that doesn't change anybody's alignment, but it makes me feel more comfortable. Kind of like how I would be suspicious if a couple scumreads of mine voted to lynch another one of my scumreads.

[toolenduso]

Well why not? The game's been moving at a snail's pace, it doesn't seem like people are interested in a no-lynch and I don't think they're interested in an eektor lynch either. What do we have left to do before we move forward, besides this statement about everybody's top two scumreads?

P-edit: that was @Elyse.

[toolenduso]

I have kind of a bad feeling about the Bella wagon, and looking back over people's reads it seems like the only wagon I would support today that has a chance of succeeding is Boonskiies. So I'm going to do some interaction analysis here as well as dig a little deeper into Aqua's VCA.

[toolenduso]

Well I think there are better candidates for a lynch for one. But also I didn't like the way Metal and eek came out in support of the Bella wagon. It felt like they let themselves be persuaded into it:

Spoiler: Metal and Eek posts

@metal Is there anybody else besides Elyse you want to vote for? Would you vote for Bella?

I can see what your saying about Bell not doing much of anything since replacing in. Only thing of substance (imo) is the early read list and voting for myk near deadline.

Sorry didn't finish my post, so yes I would vote for Bella. With whats there for IL and Bella I could go for a Bella lynch in our current situation. And to reiterate what I've said before IL only got a break from me because he wasn't around

@Aqua I find case 2 and 3 more likely than your case 1 and 4. In respect to Case 4, like you said earlier the indecision on the lynch between metal and IL makes me think one of them had to be scum. If you noticed IL wasn't around and voting. If IL was scum, that would have hurt the scum team's chances of pushing the counterwagon, which is why I think we ended with a no lynch and why I think out of those two IL was scum.

Also, I don't think tool can be paired with metal because when given the choice between metal and IL, he voted for metal. Only way he can be paired with metal is if he was scum with both metal and Bella. I think lynching Bella is the better way to go.

[toolenduso]

Ah, you're right. Somehow I missed that.

Metal, though.

[toolenduso]

OK so it looks pretty much everybody has expressed support for a Boon lynch except for Boon. So that means two partners would have to be bussing if he's scum. Looking through interactions with him:

Spoiler: Aqua

-Pressured Boon pretty aggressively pretty much as soon as Boon replaced in (#432). Pretty tough to see this coming from a partner; maybe a little more likely if they have daychat but even then I just think a partner would give their partner a little more time or try to get them to give reads before chastising them publicly.
-Continued to either scumread Boonskiies or call him a policy lynch ever since. I mean, to the point where he's even been kind of mean to Boonskiies. I do not see these slots being partners.
-Boon townreads Aqua.

Spoiler: Bella

-Started off with a neutral read on boon, #1484, which is what I would expect from a partner.
-Maybe like a tiny little defense of boon in #1586? This one isn't so strong for me.
-#1721 is Bella's first mention of boon being scum, and it seems like it comes from Elyse.
-#1851 would be, from a scumpartner, setting up a lynch based on their partner's flip.
-Definite candidate for partner should Boon flip scum.
-Boon townreads Bella.

Spoiler: eektor

-#742 looks like the first time eek really talks about boon, and it's to question him and even kinda call him a scumread.
-Criticizes the "policy lynch" feeling of the momentum against Boon in #1403.
-Has set up boon as an early possible partner of multiple people (Taly, Myko).
-These two don't look like partners.
-Boon scumreads Eek.

Spoiler: Elyse

-Her first real mention of boon is in #1413, where she lists him as possible scum without much of an explanation why. I could actually see this coming from a partner, especially given her lack of talking about boon earlier on.
-Criticizes Boon's case against me in #1575, but that was after Aqua did it so that's also something that could come from a partner (jumping on another player's criticisms so as to keep distance).
-Candidate for a partner with Boon, as much as I townread her otherwise.
-Boon scumreads Elyse. Given the way these slots have interacted, though, I could see that being planned.

Spoiler: Metal

-First mention of boon is in #529, when he assumes that RC's fake "adorable" result on "Annie" is referring to boon. Now, this whole episode was pretty weird. But I do wonder if this could come from scum paranoid about a cop getting a result on their partner.
-Scumreads boon in #719, though, which is pretty early for a partner.
-Starts pushing Boon pretty hard around #1010.
-Spends, like, most of his energy pushing boon for the rest of his ISO. Yeah, that doesn't look like a partner to me.
-Boon townreads Metal.

Spoiler: TDA

-Starts by asking boon some questions just like everyone else in the game. His first real mention of the slot aside from that is in #1116, when he says he "doesn't remember" anything about the slot.
-Yet, in the [urlhttp://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=6685768#p6685768]next post[/url], 10 minutes later, he says boon is one of two people he thinks town should lynch. Then he votes him two posts later.
-Pushes Boon pretty consistently for the rest of the game. I don't know what to make of this. His vote on boon came close to deadline, so if he's actually boon's partner then he was either pretty confident that people wouldn't go for it (I'm actually kind of surprised people didn't lynch boon that day given the attitude toward his slot throughout the game, though I'm not 100% clear of where everybody stood on Boonskiies at the time) or he was ready to lose a partner and take the towncred that would come with it. The way he kind of pulled boon out of nowhere doesn't really feel like something a partner would do, but it's not as clear a separation as what I see between boon and Aqua.
-Boon townreads this slot.

Wow, I wish I had done this earlier. Of all the slots still alive in the game, the ones that look the most like they could be bussing boon are a slot I townread and I slot I kind of townread. TDA is an outside chance, but if we had a scumflip from boon and I was only looking at interactions then Bella and Elyse would be the first two people I would look toward.

So it's quite possible boon is scum, but it would mean I would have to kind of start from scratch with my reads.

[toolenduso]

Are you positively townreading Bella for some reason that doesn't involve Eektor or Metal?

I don't have a case for Bella being town, no. It's been more of a gut feeling, not seeing a reason why she looks like scum and the people who have been supporting her lynch. If we got a scumflip of boon though...

Aqua, remember when I said watch for reactions to my self-vote and who would go on what wagon?

You're ignoring the reason I'm doing it: There's not enough support for a lynch of either of my top two scumreads, but there is enough support for your lynch. Simple as that.

Honestly, the only person i feel I've even reacted with this game is Aqua, so I don't really get how interaction analysis of me will happen.

Well, kind of your interactions. But I more meant the way other people have interacted with you.

I feel Tool in a way just proved me as town by trying to find a case on me as scum.

r u for real boon. I'm scum because I'm forming a read on you, this is what you're saying.

[toolenduso]

I didn't say Boon was my main suspect, I said that I don't see enough support for lynching you, metal or TDA. That pretty much leaves Boon from my list of possible scums, and if we do lynch Boon and he flips scum then the people who look like his potential partners are Elyse, Bella and possibly TDA.

That being said, Bella not being lynched yet is probably a good sign.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: Bellaphant

Let's hope you're right.

[toolenduso]

Not unless Bella's town...

[toolenduso]

I'll post more in depth later but I feel like I should apologize to...well, kind of everyone. I mean, my teammates for sure, but also to the town. I let myself get discouraged about this game and lazy and didn't play as well as I would have liked to. Glad it worked out for us though. Kudos to TDA and Elyse, you guys did great!

[toolenduso]

Well...I don't know if I personally think we deserve a scummy for this game in particular, but I appreciate the nomination Monkeyman!

I do think the scum team played well overall. I was pretty sure we were going to win as soon as I saw that Elyse was on the team, and I'm happy I got to be on a scum team with her. The strength of this team, I think, was in the way we interacted with each other. I think each member did a good job of paying attention to the other two without giving them a free pass or bussing them outright, as well as avoiding suspicious statements/observations about them.

I don't know why y'all are so down on boonskiies, I enjoyed having him in the game. He's a fun player to have around and brings a more light-hearted style of play to the table which I think is often lacking in games. Plus his reads were scary good this game.

I also liked playing with Aqua and mykonian, you two were both active and thoughtful players who I believe would have figured out the scumteam either in different circumstances or just if given enough time. I know where you're coming from, Aqua, because I've felt similarly frustrated at times, but it kind of sounds to me like you might be taking the game a little too seriously. Not trying to lecture here, but if you'd like to give the game another shot then I think one thing that might help you enjoy it is if you let the game be more of a game and less of a XXXX, if that makes any sense.

Taly, I'm sorry if you felt attacked on a personal level in this game. It wasn't my intent and it's not something I want to do, even if it's scum theater. I do think you can take some lessons from this game, chief among them being that now that the scum team is revealed you can look at the stuff we used as arguments to push you -- I think those are things other scum teams will also see and try to use to their advantage.

And thanks to the mod for modding! As for the twilight mechanic, I wasn't a huge fan -- just because it lengthened the nights by quite a bit and honestly because it was something I didn't know how to deal with as scum. When I play scum I'm used to just scoring a mislynch and then allowing myself a bit of a cool-off period during the night where I can take a little focus away from the game for a couple days (not that I ignore the scum thread or anything), but twilight was kind of like this awkward place for me where I had to keep up the charade of not knowing what the person would flip.

If it's nice for players in different time zones to have, though, then I can definitely understand why more mods would consider doing it and I would accept it.

[toolenduso]

Well...I don't know if I personally think we deserve a scummy for this game in particular, but I appreciate the nomination Monkeyman!

Let me clarify this a bit more because I don't want you guys to think that I think you played badly -- this is really more a reflection of myself, I feel like I didn't play up to my standards as scum.

Not trying to lecture here, but if you'd like to give the game another shot then I think one thing that might help you enjoy it is if you let the game be more of a game and less of a XXXX, if that makes any sense.

Lol, forgot to replace the XXXX -- I was searching for the right word and put that in as a placeholder so I could come back later. What I meant was "more of a game and less of an emotional investment."

[toolenduso]

I believe I actually put forth a good case on Tool, and I believe Tool felt it.

Well.......sorta. Some of the things you said were spot-on, some were half-accurate and some were false. Which ultimately doesn't matter because you were right about me being scum, but I think it kind of points to you just having good gut reads.

It was more the method of delivery that made the case easy to dismiss, though -- it really did look like retroactive reasoning, which can be fixed with some wording changes/structure changes.