Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[catboi]

I'm town this time. I want to go to the Wall, for the most 'pure' experience. I'm going to treat any early movement as a scumclaim, though. (^・ω・^ )

[catboi]

Do we want to try to force the scum into one area or play by putting obvtowns in certain areas?

I can assure you that this is a futile endeavor, for multiple reasons.

[catboi]

I wouldn't lie to you, fufufu~

[catboi]

I'm going to treat any early movement as a scumclaim, though.

So, about this...

That's about what I expected but I'm going to stick to my word there.

[catboi]

Were I scum, I would be salivating at the prospect of making T3 the IC.

[catboi]

I dislike both kyouko's explanation and T3's reaction to it, but will take the level 0 read that this makes them unlikely to be teamed. Although looking at 52 again, it might be a town post despite none of the conclusions being good. Or because of that.

[catboi]

So T3 is scum, that wasn't too hard

Would you have thought he was town if he immediately acquiesced to your request?

[catboi]

Any objections to Peng/skiter/me in the keep that are not ssbm?

Do you have reads on those two?

[catboi]

Ssbm how would u rate ur scumgame? What do u think ur strengths are as scum?

My strengths are bussing convincingly, my weaknesses are being tmi and I sometimes have a hard time staying motivated as scum

Thanks!

Tbh i'm kinda having a hard time seeing u come after t3 this hard as scum

Well, see, my problem with the whole approach is that kyouko seems to be basing her read entirely on whether T3 submits to her, and I don't find the way she's executing it to look like a genuine attempt to read into T3's alignment. If she had gotten an early townread on him and wanted him to go to the gate, that would be understandable. If the proposed plan had been an attempt to gauge his alignment by how he reacted to it. But that doesn't quite seem to be what's going on. Instead, the approach she's seems solely geared toward attempting to intimidate him into going to a location that is, frankly, unoptimal for him. It doesn't look like there's any attempt to genuinely read into T3's alignment off what he's saying, and instead just attack him - 135 is particularly noxious in that regard.

Were this a regular game, I could maybe see it as an attempt to pressure him but in this setup that doesn't really work, and the approach here makes more sense as either trying to make T3 an elimmable suspect on day 2 or pit him against implosion based on his existing stated suspicions - I'm not sure why as town you'd actively try to get 2 scumreads into a location with you but it makes great sense as scum if you believe one will surefire vote the other. I'm struggling to see much of any of it as town motivated play.

No strong opinions of any posts here, which may be troublesome if the clock keeps ticking down. Are people afraid of making stances? Are they simply waiting for something to happen? I don't mean to be hypocritical but I don't have enough to generate a wall.

It's...barely over 24 hours into Day 1? Why the impatience?

[catboi]

I didn't have the chance to say it but I do think T3 being at the keep is optimal.

I have some tentative good feelings on certain people but nothing I particularly feel like mentioning right now.

[catboi]

Well, I feel okay about penguin, as much as one can feel decent about him this early into a game.

[catboi]

So t3 and catboi are both not thinking through what actually happens if I'm scum. Almost as if they know I'm not (:

Nah

[catboi]

In theory having discussion and trying rto group townreads together at locations is a good way to play this, however, I can't help but worry the way it's going will lead people into confirmation bias and that sort of thing becomes very easy to exploit with the swap. I'm tempted to call kyouko's bluff about me and T3 right now, tbh.

[catboi]

You think T3 has a chance to be scum, catboi?

Not particularly, no. I think his reads feel mostly genuine in terms of how he's reacting to what happens.

[catboi]

and unwnd not going anywhere quickly in this game is probably just to not look the same way she did when she was scum last time, for anyone else who was in that game and saw her do it. From what I understand S_S wrote the setup so maybe he was mod in that game, and he is the connection to that game. If he is the only connection to that game, it is highly likely that scum!unwnd means town!S_S

See, you had me going with the unwnd scum theory because I thought it was plausible, and then you make this post where you make a hypothesis based on arbitrary assumptions that are untrue whilst not bothering to do the bare minimum of research to see that unwnd, S_S, Dunnstral, and me were all players in the previous run of this game, (and I have referred to seeing it from the other side), and so I think posts like this are just meant to look impressive in terms of looking solvey while actually being utterly hollow and worthless and showing a complete lack of thought.

[catboi]

I don't have any feelings on Dunnstral because I don't think he's done much that's AI.

[catboi]

I was more curious about ssbm and dunn in that trio

Kinda wanto keep unwnd/catboi out of the keep

VOTE: keep

[catboi]

Okay, explain the scum motivation in hurling myself at the keep?

[catboi]

Why did you do that

I know I'm town, I think T3 is town, if people are going to accuse me of being scum off...basically nothing, I'm going to go to the place

where I do not need to prove myself as town

. I'm not keen to let a narrative form against me. That simple.

[catboi]

I don't know if Catboi does the same strategy twice. It could be a WIFOM play int that sense but for now

That felt oddly spiteful?

In a sense, yeah, it was a knee-jerk reactionary move but it is worth remembering that putting myself at the keep would be enitrely unoptimal and nonsensical as scum. I don't expect to be voted at the keep

and I absolutely do not care about that

.

I dont know but nothing ur saying feels townie, dislike that you're discrediting ssbm, and i've no idea what the town motivation for that was either

Shrug, I think her posts are remarkably hollow. I think it's easy to make a bunch of strategic posturing but none of it feels like an authentic attempt to gamesolve and people are crediting her for volume more than anything substantial. "Nothing feels townie" is vague, I have admittedly been closed off with my reads to this point but I haven't particularly had any desire to impress with my play so far.

[catboi]

If I'm left at the keep after swaps I'm perfectly happy playing kingmaker. In a sense I've just seized the hammer for myself, and I actually quite like that prospect.

[catboi]

Oh sorry - you didn’t call me town so I thought I should go somewhere so you could view me as town.

I accept your sass

Also the fact that your immediate reaction is: oh this would have been so silly to do as scum (twice now)

Makes me feel like you're scum just playing that card

Also, i really, really dont think ssbm's posts are fake, and they feel like legitimate attenpts to gamesolve to me
It feels like she's thought quite a lot abt the optimal placements/strategy for town and is working to realize that vision

Shrug, I don't think it's at all hard to theorize about optimal placements as scum. Her actual thoughts on the here and now are lacking. So you think I'm trying to look town - do you expect I'm somehow going to spin this into a "vote 4 me" campaign? Otherwise such a theory is nonsensical. What's my goal supposed to be?

[catboi]

If I'm left at the keep after swaps I'm perfectly happy playing kingmaker. In a sense I've just seized the hammer for myself, and I actually quite like that prospect.

I quite don't

Okay, why?

[catboi]

Will LOVE to hear the explanation for how that's a bad thing if I'm supposedly scum. ( ｰ̀εｰ́ )

[catboi]

Dislike the fact that you want to take a kingmaker position when t3 is much more tow read than u

You realize the keep is the spot where you're supposed to vote on who is most town, right? And if I'm not viewed as most town then I get to be the deciding vote.

Why is that a bad thing?

[catboi]

I mean - the immediate is that even if you are town I don’t trust your judgment?

Rude, but understandable. Do you think T3 is scum, then?

[catboi]

I think the person eho is most town (not you) should get to vote, and if ur scum you wont at all

Why would the person who is most town not simply want themself to get voted? This doesn't make a lick of sense. Of course, if I am scum there is no reason for me to vote, but you already have my word that I will vote, and if I go back on it I obviously won't get voted myself, which would guarantee a town win in the event I am scum.


So, again, I very much fail to see what your problem is supposed to be.

[catboi]

Apologies if you actions result in an objective stance that you view as rude. I don’t have solid reads at the moment given game state, though you are helping!

Lol, no worries, I'm not offended. I completely understand if on a gut level you dislike my impulsive play and view it as antitown. But I'd like to hope I can do a decent job guessing in a 50/50.

[catboi]

You just made a post saying that "if ur scum you wont VOTE: ", and now you're saying you forgot?

[catboi]

I have two scumreads now I think

I know I'm being vague but it will come to fruition, eventually

Now I'm 1 name away from having a day 1 hero solve

[catboi]

I have two scumreads now I think

I know I'm being vague but it will come to fruition, eventually

Now I'm 1 name away from having a day 1 hero solve

I'm afraid of saying mine honestly

Understandable.

To be clear, I have 1 scumread and 3 names I feel unresolved on - one of those is obviously something_smart, who hasn't had enough input for me to have a read. If I can get one of those 3 unknown reads as town I'd feel comfy. Some of that probably gets resolved when my move to day 2, though.

[catboi]

I think skitter's reaction to catboi last page is townish. I don't think catboi promising to wield the hammer at keep is townish, obviously if catboi follows through then they're town but it's a quite easy thing to say and then not follow through on for any of x reasons (being swapped out or a changed gamestate, etc).

or well i'm not discounting skitter certainly but i do like her last page quite a bit.

That is easily the scummiest set of posts in the game, haha.

[catboi]

Don't know if scum backing up a partner or just bad reads, though.

[catboi]

What if scumboi was desperate so he decided to do the same gambit as last time? I feel like that would make sense if everyone's early solves are correct.

You should really probably actually read the last game if you're going to hypothesize about it, because what I did is antithetical to what our team did in that game. In the first game, Briar brute-forced herself as a townread and jumped to the keep, we swapped out the other universal townread in absinthe and swapped in Infinity, who the town had been confirmation-biasing as scum. We ensured scum was the most townread player at the keep for an easy 1-0 lead. Me doing that here as scum...would almost unquestionably put the team down 0-1 instead, as I'm not particularly townread. In terms of motive and optics, it's nothing like what scum did the last game (if anything, it's closer to Anastasia)

I don't really expect you to have good reads or any sort of sensible logic, but luckily for my purposes that's completely irrelevant.

[catboi]

unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

skitter says unwnd/catboi interactions feel weird. Immediately after that, catboi drops a scumread on implosion. implosion's 37 is townreading catboi and unwnd for bad reasons.
Partner interactions day 1 are bad but if I had to choose one of them to flip first probably catboi, maybe implosion.

That wasn't implying a scumread on implosion, it was saying skitter is blatantly scum for how she reacted to my jump.

[catboi]

What if scumboi was desperate so he decided to do the same gambit as last time? I feel like that would make sense if everyone's early solves are correct.

You should really probably actually read the last game if you're going to hypothesize about it, because what I did is antithetical to what our team did in that game. In the first game, Briar brute-forced herself as a townread and jumped to the keep, we swapped out the other universal townread in absinthe and swapped in Infinity, who the town had been confirmation-biasing as scum. We ensured scum was the most townread player at the keep for an easy 1-0 lead. Me doing that here as scum...would almost unquestionably put the team down 0-1 instead, as I'm not particularly townread. In terms of motive and optics, it's nothing like what scum did the last game (if anything, it's closer to Anastasia)

I don't really expect you to have good reads or any sort of sensible logic, but luckily for my purposes that's completely irrelevant.

Then I'm just bad.

I mean, yes. Also it's incredibly irritating to have multiple people making speculative reads based on a game they haven't actually read. It's not like it's particularly hard to find, I have no idea why you'd simply guess at the events of a game instead. If anything my play currently is closer to Anastasia from that game.

I'm fine with the situation I'm in, though - I control my own destiny unless scum swap me out, but doing so means they probably lose the keep regardless.

[catboi]

That wasn't implying a scumread on implosion, it was saying skitter is blatantly scum for how she reacted to my jump.

Ok and i think ur blatantly scum *for* the jump
What would u do if i went to the keep

I wouldn't be able to do much of anything, would I? Don't know why you'd ask. I definitely am not going to speculate on how I'd vote post-swap depending on what happened.

[catboi]

You still can't really formulate a coherent theory as to how I'd be advancing the scum win condition by doing this, but seem to want to cling to that read regardless. That's why I think you're scum - you're working from the endpoint of calling me scum and searching for ways to justify it rather than assessing why my play would be beneficial to scum in the slightest.

I think by contrast, Penguin's outright disdain for my play reads miles more authentic.

[catboi]

I dont really get what you're saying/implying in that post

I don't know, I'm not sure what you think I

could

do in response to you moving to the keep - I think that'd be a terrible play here for you as scum, so it'd be at least somewhat surprising, but I'm not really going to out a read that's contingent on you taking a particular action, that feels both silly and a bad idea.

[catboi]

Okay, but I'm not getting voted, so, again, the idea that this is a scum gambit falls totally flat. I'm going to vote for who I think is town, hopefully I will be right, I will flip town and leave a legacy read that you should be voted no matter what.

My motivation here as town is pretty simple: I get to be the deciding vote at the keep, I get to control my own destiny, and I don't even have to convince anyone to crossvote for me, which is the most annoying part of being in 3p. If I sense that there's an active campaign to discredit me, why would I not want to be at the place where me being scumread is far less important than my ability to correctly identify who is town?

It doesn't particularly

matter

to me that I get townread here but you're so obviously trying to force-fit the read at this point, which is why I think you're scum.

[catboi]

I dont really get what you're saying/implying in that post

I don't know, I'm not sure what you think I

could

do in response to you moving to the keep - I think that'd be a terrible play here for you as scum, so it'd be at least somewhat surprising, but I'm not really going to out a read that's contingent on you taking a particular action, that feels both silly and a bad idea.

I mean if you're town and planning on taking the vote there i'm p sure me going there would force you to vote t3 as u apparently think i'm scum
(Whicu for me would be a good outcome cuz i think t3 is town)

From your pov i'm not sure why the immediate reaction isnt just: i will vote t3

Because there's still a swap in play? Obviously. I'm not going to lay out my exact thinking for the mafia to interfere with it. Last game Anastasia was very open that she'd vote for whoever of absinthe (town) and Briar (scum) was left at the keep, so it was easy for us to swap out absinthe with Infinity (a scumread of Anastasia). As such I have no desire to show my full hand to the scumteam this game.

[catboi]

I was p obviously talking abt a universe where you/me/t3 were still at the keep post-swap

I'm still not going to answer that.

[catboi]

Well i'm incredibly dubious the keep will have a good ending

based on...?

[catboi]

and unwnd not going anywhere quickly in this game is probably just to not look the same way she did when she was scum last time, for anyone else who was in that game and saw her do it. From what I understand S_S wrote the setup so maybe he was mod in that game, and he is the connection to that game. If he is the only connection to that game, it is highly likely that scum!unwnd means town!S_S

See, you had me going with the unwnd scum theory because I thought it was plausible, and then you make this post where you make a hypothesis based on arbitrary assumptions that are untrue whilst not bothering to do the bare minimum of research to see that unwnd, S_S, Dunnstral, and me were all players in the previous run of this game, (and I have referred to seeing it from the other side), and so I think posts like this are just meant to look impressive in terms of looking solvey while actually being utterly hollow and worthless and showing a complete lack of thought.

or, or, or... you read my post, and see that I specify that I am uncertain - "if he is the only connection to that game." I have admittedly not looked at that game, because I said "if". You would know I have not looked at the game, because you were in the game and know that S_S is not the only connection

I struggle to see the town motivation in making arbitrary theories based on easily disprovable assumptions. However, I think there's actually a fairly decent chance you might be town here regardless.

[catboi]

I think the person eho is most town (not you) should get to vote, and if ur scum you wont at all

Why would the person who is most town not simply want themself to get voted? This doesn't make a lick of sense. Of course, if I am scum there is no reason for me to vote,

but you already have my word that I will vote

, and if I go back on it I obviously won't get voted myself, which would guarantee a town win in the event I am scum.


So, again, I very much fail to see what your problem is supposed to be.

This is worthless, because at the time you vote, the Keep game ends. As scum, you can just say you're not sure yet, and the burden still falls on the other town to identify one another. Or, as scum, you can be swapped out so you don't have to follow through. As town, you can be swapped out to make it appear that you're scum that is trying to not follow through on your word here. So we can't put any stock in this.

Lol. Okay. If I'm at the keep and withhold my vote as scum, I still lose though, so why the concern trolling?

[catboi]

How do you lose in that instance

...because one of the townies just votes the other, in that instance? Like, this isn't at all hard to grasp and you seem committed to an almost willful misunderstanding of how the keep operates at this point. If I'm kept at the keep, I set a deadline for myself to vote, if I don't follow through then one of the other two should vote for the other. As scum, there is no plausible way for me to be victorious in this instance. I'm town though and so it'll fall on me to decide correctly.

If scum want to burn their swap to take me out of the keep, that seems like a foolish and unoptimal move, so I'm fine with that.

[catboi]

pedit: you don't lose until town identifies each other. What if one town decides the other is scum and votes you by POE, then scum!you wins

Do you actually think that is remotely likely based on your reading of the game?

[catboi]

Catboi, what do you think of Skitter coming at you? I believe you know regardless of your alignment that what you did was anti-town. You justify this however and I don't need you to explain it to me. However, I think Skitter right now knows what you did was anti-town and is pushing you for it. Do you think she's just trying to build a narrative or is she just confused; You claim that you know you're town and can prove it.

I think the

way

she came after me after I made my move was incredibly scummy and shifted my view of the game dramatically, yes. I don't inherently have a problem with someone expressing dislike for what I did but the way she's gone about it feels more like someone who

wants

to scumread me and trying to find reasons to do so, but she went through attacks that were illogical/easily refuted. In my view, if someone were to

truly

believe I am scum, than my jump to the keep is nothing short of a concession. But instead she keeps trying to stoke paranoia around me, to no productive end. I don't believe it's a real thought process. I could break down her immediate posts in reaction to my move last night if you want, I guess.

[catboi]

VOTE: Keep

WHY.
Why .-.
So I don't think Dunn is scum with catboi because then one of Dunn/catboi would have to swap.

Dunn made a surprise move like that last game as town, so it's not entirely out of his town range. I wouldn't say his involvement this game has been necessarily as protown as the last, but as I was on the other team that time, my view of the game is somewhat colored by that. If I had to guess, though, I would say that play is more likely to come from him as town because I don't see what he gains from it as scum.

[catboi]

Okay, but I'm not getting voted, so, again, the idea that this is a scum gambit falls totally flat. I'm going to vote for who I think is town, hopefully I will be right, I will flip town and leave a legacy read that you should be voted no matter what.

My motivation here as town is pretty simple: I get to be the deciding vote at the keep, I get to control my own destiny, and I don't even have to convince anyone to crossvote for me, which is the most annoying part of being in 3p. If I sense that there's an active campaign to discredit me, why would I not want to be at the place where me being scumread is far less important than my ability to correctly identify who is town?

It doesn't particularly

matter

to me that I get townread here but you're so obviously trying to force-fit the read at this point, which is why I think you're scum.

oh damn keep is hammered... but now that it's hammered with 2 low activity players, if they're both town (T3 and Dunnstral), it will be easy for scum to swap scum!catboi out for a deepwolf if they can get 1-1-1, and get that deepwolf to be TRed. I think now what we want is the consensus scumreads in Wall so that if we get 2/3 there, scum!catboi is forced to stay in keep, and scum has to swap a Wall-Scum for a Gate-Town.

Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

T3 has the most posts in the game. What the

fuck

are you talking about?

[catboi]

I legitimately cannot tell at this point if kyouko's warped view of the game is complete blinkered town obliviousness or scum that is simply not actually reading the game. I don't feel like skitter's defense of her was partnery but it's hard to wrap my head around.

[catboi]

I'm just going to state that I thought about hammering Keep. Basically if I did so (and Skitter thinks me/Catboi are aligned), then one of them would have to make a move. Two scum can't be at the same place basically. I just don't know if going out there to merely prove a point would be good however.

It's already hammered by Dunn, Lol.

I think this is townwnd regardless, though.

[catboi]

I legitimately cannot tell at this point if kyouko's warped view of the game is complete blinkered town obliviousness or scum that is simply not actually reading the game. I don't feel like skitter's defense of her was partnery but it's hard to wrap my head around.

This is what scum does to me btw, seen it often. They don't engage because it's hard to argue with me for a prolonged period, and eventually they resort to discrediting me or ignoring me. Guess here we're going with gaslighting

1. Don't use 'gaslighting' in a game, thanks.
2. It is an easily verifiable fact that T3 has the most posts in the game and is generally seen by most as townie. I can't engage with someone who tells me the sky is green, because on a basic level they are wrong. Your fretting over me being at the keep is nonsensical because it contravenes basic facts about this game. When those are in dispute, what am I to do? I don't expect any amount of reasoning to actually get through to you at this point even if you are town. Hopefully that isn't relevant, regardless.

[catboi]

I think Kyouko either loses this game for town or I am fooled by her fake stubborness.

I think the former is, regrettably, far more likely.

[catboi]

I don't really want to finalize things before something_smart comes back although I'm kind of feeling like he's POE-scum at this point.

[catboi]

I think Kyouko either loses this game for town or I am fooled by her fake stubborness.

I think the former is, regrettably, far more likely.

You changed your mind with her recent posting? Last I remember you thought it was fake world scum

I think it tipped me more to the town side but I was always there primarily because I think skitter is a much stronger scumread for me (and if we're going for hail mary scumreads, the skitter/implo interactions on page 4 have a decent chance of being scum/scum). I could say more about why I think it's town arrogance but they would not be very nice words.

[catboi]

I legitimately cannot tell at this point if kyouko's warped view of the game is complete blinkered town obliviousness or scum that is simply not actually reading the game. I don't feel like skitter's defense of her was partnery but it's hard to wrap my head around.

This is what scum does to me btw, seen it often. They don't engage because it's hard to argue with me for a prolonged period, and eventually they resort to discrediting me or ignoring me. Guess here we're going with gaslighting

1. Don't use 'gaslighting' in a game, thanks.
2. It is an easily verifiable fact that T3 has the most posts in the game and is generally seen by most as townie. I can't engage with someone who tells me the sky is green, because on a basic level they are wrong. Your fretting over me being at the keep is nonsensical because it contravenes basic facts about this game. When those are in dispute, what am I to do? I don't expect any amount of reasoning to actually get through to you at this point even if you are town. Hopefully that isn't relevant, regardless.

1. If you are scum, what you are doing is, by definition, gaslighting. You are saying my view of the game is warped - and if you are scum, it is not warped, but by telling me it is warped, you sow doubt in my own mind about my view of the game. If you are scum, I am being gaslit, and I will use that term to describe it unless dannflor has a problem with it.
2. What does T3 have to do with the post you're replying to?

Your view of the game is warped because you are unaware of basic facts like how T3 is active and generally townread. It has little to do with your read of me. It's problematic because I would expect, I would hope that a town player would actually be paying enough attention to know these things, and yet you persist in maintaining that view even when I tell you it is untrue.

[catboi]

The hesitance tells me the skitter/implo/s_s herosolve is probably off, but the balking assuredly feels tactical in some way.

[catboi]

pedit: I've been TRing T3 for a while now, just haven't said it yet, that's why my interactions with him slowed down. I also think you spewed he and Dunn are town so Keep is p much autowin regardless of the swap

So if that's the case, why the panicked concern trolling over my move?

[catboi]

First of all, my post that you say is concern trolling is not panicked - I would be interested in hearing why you think it was panicked.

I again do not understand how this ties to my read on T3. If you did want to make a connection, the implication, if there were no swap at keep, would be that I TR T3 based on my post that you identified as "concern trolling." Because in that post, I am saying your word means nothing because you can just wait to vote until town identifies each other, or thinks the other one is scum. In a later post, I clarified that if that happens, you would win, because you responded to my post saying that as scum, you would just lose there.

that post + this one below have you fretting over some far-out scenarios where this is a manipulation by scum-me to try to win the keep, all of which are fairly unlikely and betray a lack of gamestate awareness.

oh damn keep is hammered... but now that it's hammered with 2 low activity players, if they're both town (T3 and Dunnstral), it will be easy for scum to swap scum!catboi out for a deepwolf if they can get 1-1-1, and get that deepwolf to be TRed. I think now what we want is the consensus scumreads in Wall so that if we get 2/3 there, scum!catboi is forced to stay in keep, and scum has to swap a Wall-Scum for a Gate-Town.

I just don't see why you bother imagining this nonsense when I've already pledged to be the first vote at the keep, and were I to go back on that, I lose. It's incredibly simple to grasp yet you insist on fearmongering.

Truthfully, I think further arguing between us is going to be supremely unproductive. I'm town and will flip as such soon enough, I can only hope it breaks you out of the world you've put yourself in.

[catboi]

@Catboi - Why did you say you can't see the motivation for scum!Dunn to hammer Keep?

Because I'm not sure what his angle would be there. Does he expect to be the one who gets voted after lowposting and making an unexpected hammer on the keep? It seems doubtful, even in a world where I'm correctly townreading T3 and he gets taken out of the Keep. Of course, saying I can't see any scum motivation there is probably an overreach - there are scenarios where I can see a tactical benefit to scum wanting to have 1 member at the keep. But I'm sure he'll have an explanation that we won't hear until after the locations are finalized.

SS is basically just PoE. I would probably try to force him into whatever room because on the off chance he's scum it should be apparently obvious when he returns. And I also think that we would take SS more into account when deciding on mech stuff than other players and if he's scum he could possibly force us into a subuptimal position.p

S_S is PoE scum for you? what's your PoE of scum rn?

@Catboi - Why did you say you can't see the motivation for scum!Dunn to hammer Keep?

Not really PoE scum, he just hasn't done anything towny.

I mean, he hasn't done anything at all, he's been V/LA since the game started. I personally feel that enough people have been towny in some way that I feel there is a decent chance he is scum, though.

[catboi]

I think it was more to prevent scum being forced to the wall

How's that fit with your theory of me being scum, anyway?

[catboi]

Having been teamed with unwnd before, I was able to spot him as scum relatively easily in a newbie game afterwards. That game had the advantage of me having an incredibly strong legacy scumread on the slot he replaced into, and him not particularly trying his hardest, so I wouldn't call it a bulletproof read, but so far here he simply hasn't been ticking the boxes I'd expect from him as scum. As scum he tends to post for the sake of posting without any sensible conclusions to what he's saying.

[catboi]

Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

I would have been in principle but having darted around i did see this is no longer a thing lol

I probably would have been happier with you-me-penguin if i could get you to trust me. I still have like some intrinsic paranoia about skitter although I do only see reasons to think she's town so far. Just like, last time I played a 9p setup with 3 scum some things went horribly awry with my reads early and idk how much *exactly* i trust myself and i'm not like, saying i'm going to flip on skitter unless like i'm put in a place with two of my townreads or something. Idk I should probably not go too deep into how my read on her feels right now just bc it could be useful info for scum thinking about swaps.

oh and i see you actually suggested that at the gate at the bottom of the page too, neat

Speaking of words for the sake of words, this feels like fake scum indecisiveness.

[catboi]

Goodbye to my hero solve. I've clearly gone wrong somewhere but I don't even know where to start.

[catboi]

I want ss and implosion at wall

You or penguin at the gate?

[catboi]

I was guessing you/implo/s_s, although you wanting the gate changes that a little bit, I doubt you even let your team potentially get hemmed in like that. I don't know. I still don't really trust you but I think implosion is probably scummier now and certainly don't want us doing his planned Wall grouping.

[catboi]

I mean more or less that's what I was saying but hypothetically in that situation I don't think you hammer without feeling like you've got a good reason to, making a sudden movement would be inherently suspect. But regardless I'm probably not good enough to go 3/3 day 1. IDK, I probably need to see the final groupings to have an idea of how to recalibrate my reads at this point ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[catboi]

So what do you think of unwnd?

[catboi]

So what do you think of unwnd?

No strong opinion.

Okay

[catboi]

Why would you expect any rational scum play to revolve around swapping me? It gets incredibly annoying having to fend off these hypotheticals that are supposed to inform your decision-making when they rest on these assumptions that make no sense. What does scum!cat gain from swapping to the gate or the wall? The fearmongering is nonsensical at this point.

[catboi]

Why would you expect any rational scum play to revolve around swapping me? It gets incredibly annoying having to fend off these hypotheticals that are supposed to inform your decision-making when they rest on these assumptions that make no sense. What does scum!cat gain from swapping to the gate or the wall? The fearmongering is nonsensical at this point.

Scum!cat gets out of their obligation to be the hammer vote at Keep by swapping out of Keep, to the Gate or Wall. Literally the answer to your question is posted in the post you are referring to, so what is the point of asking me these questions? <-Not asking rhetorically.

Makes it hard for scum!catboi to get get out of having to keep his hammer promise at Keep.

What good do you expect that to

do

for me, though? In such a scenario, I remain a scumread at a location where people can vote me directly, meanwhile my teammate gets stuck at the keep with stronger townreads where they are less likely to win. It feels like you're just narrative-building with absolutely no sense of how my actions are supposed to play toward the scum win condition at all.

[catboi]

No, you literally have not established how I advance the scum win condition at all in your hypothetical. Your theory is that my sneaky, nefarious plan is to make a snap move to the keep that earns the ire of half the game, and get out of a promise by swapping myself out of the keep. You are painting a narrative that begins with the presumption I am scum, and so anything that happens with me must be for some nefarious purpose. The goal, for scum, is to win locations. How is the swap supposed to benefit that? Answer that rather than obfuscating and claiming you already answered.

[catboi]

Because I think catboi's alignment really depends on that.

I feel like things are being set up to attack me. I know for a fact the narrative against me cannot be wholly organic - by sheer virtue of numbers in this game, it cannot be. Someone had a misplaced suspicion of me, scum seized upon, now anything I do gets attacked. It's become apparent to me that I'm their mark and it's incredibly hard to fight off a coordinated push. Scum need their targets to win the game, if they can't get me the game becomes just a little bit harder for them. That was a big sense of why I chose the keep - that is the

one

place where I do not need to convince anyone I am town. It's the spot where the town and scum win conditions are most divergent. That this is not an explanation that seems to be understood by most people is also very annoying. I've been tunneled as town twice in newbie games, it is utterly exhausting to defend myself and I don't like having to do it. You were in one of those games! I would much rather

not

have to fight for my own survival with people who are conf-biasing all my words. I want to be able to think, analyze, and make decisions for myself, rather than wasting all my time arguing to convince someone.


The frustrating thing is my gut tells me that kyouko's arrogance and overconfidence is town-indicative, but the sheer lack of any logic whatsoever frustrates me to no end. I look at all this theorizing as to how I could be setting up for a ~sneaky swap~ and cannot help but think, is this all in service of having a narrative for eliminating me? That's what the paranoid part of my brain is whispering.

[catboi]

That was part of why we kept you there last time >_>

[catboi]

Figured it would be easier for me to argue over you than infinity. Regardless, I agree you going to the gate is probably not optimal here.

[catboi]

I don't really object to skitter at the gate. Preferable to implo at any rate.

[catboi]

This is not how I would play this game as scum, if you ever need a definitive read on me for future games

Ok this doesnt help me read u here now tho

That post basically reads to me like you're planning on ic-ing ssbm and 1v1-ing me, which is like fine from my pov, but i'm not sure its objectively obvious that this is the outcome

I mean, is it actually important for you to read him right now?

[catboi]

I think you're looking for excuses to avoid going to the gate now.

[catboi]

Whatever. I think you're playing tactically and don't actually want to go to the gate, have never wanted to go to the gate, and were hoping someone else would take the gate before you so you would have an excuse. As that hasn't happened, you're entering into this incredibly performative exchange where you balk at the idea because this somehow our scum plot (of course, trying to articulate what that could actually be wouldn't be possible, because nothing makes sense, you fall back on vague notions of it being "suspicious")

NEVER MIND the fact that unwnd was open about wanting to go to the gate with you from the moment he jumped there, I've been largely okay with it for most of this time, SUDDENLY NOW it's a big deal???, Yeah, not buying it! ✾(〜 ☌ω☌)〜✾

[catboi]

I am literally reading Kyouko/T3 as either having one scum (both? Unsure) or two townies who will lose the game for us.

I don't know how else to put it without being mean. I just think you two operate in one-dimension and don't have the experience to have nuance in your reads.

I have almost no doubt at this point that T3 is town. What I have to hope is that incredibly artificial-sounding lines like the following:

I think unwnd is scum so implosion should go to the gate.

Same but also you could just be echoing me to reinforce my coming-around TR on you

really are fake, or we probably just lose this game.

[catboi]

I invite you to prove me wrong but I have the feeling you're looking for an out.

[catboi]

And I still think you're scum at this point so I don't really

care

what your supposed concerns are! I felt you were being scummy and I felt the need to call it out, because I want to make sure I get heard at some point in this game. As scum I wouldn't even bother, I know this is going to be bad optics for me until I flip, the hope is that I can do so without 1v1ing you.

[catboi]

I think you're looking for excuses to avoid going to the gate now.

SkitteR has been pretty adamant about going gate (or me going gate) since the beginning…what are you on about?

I'm talking about this:

Would you prefer to be at the other place?

Idk i'm more concerned by the fact that u want me there
I dont want ss or implosion at the gate

If we cant get 2-1 at wall i'm not entirely opposed to sending implosion to gate as well

I'm being open that I think it could have been a bluff and she's looking to justify not doing it now.

It is possible I could be being conspiratorial and stupid right now! But that was how I reacted to those posts.

[catboi]

But you were already preferring to go gate so I don’t see what goading you accomplishes.

Really, if I want to manipulate people I'd probably be less overt about it. I'm not

that

bad. If she's scum I can't actually manipulate her into doing anything, if she's town...well then I'm being stupid, I guess.

[catboi]

Honestly, T3 attempting to meta-read unwnd based solely off estimated post length is kind of endearing.

[catboi]

I feel clowned already by that gate swap. My main theory gets blown to bits immediately.

I'm confident penguin is town, everyone else in this game can kick rocks.

Need to hear from Dunn on why he hammered the keep.

[catboi]

implo-unwnd makes that swap plausible but still very ??? as to why they'd put skitter in the gate, rather than someone more likely to lose a 1v1. I really hated that move from implo.

[catboi]

Also catboi r u still planning on voting first

I plan on casting my vote at the keep as kingmaker, yeah. I don't know if I go first out of all the areas - that was the approach last game, playing the percentages to an extent, but here I feel like we should resolve whichever location would give the most high-info flip first, if that makes sense. Like, in my view, do we learn a ton from a dunn scumflip or a T3 scumflip? not particularly. Whereas with you vs. implosion, I feel like you've both been active enough that we learn a lot from whichever one of you is scum.

However, if people prefer that I be the one to act first, I'll still gladly oblige.

[catboi]

I plan on casting my vote at the keep as kingmaker, yeah.

I would vote for you.

...okay then. I had a feeling that might have been a motivator for you. You're confident on me as town compared to last time?

[catboi]

I do want to give some attention to rereading in the other sections first now that we know potential teams, rather than just yeeting myself out of the game, though. I think the potential teams being reduced should make it easier for me to solve here.

[catboi]

I plan on casting my vote at the keep as kingmaker, yeah.

I would vote for you.

...okay then. I had a feeling that might have been a motivator for you. You're confident on me as town compared to last time?

I felt you were towny in this game compared to the past few times I've seen you as scum, yes

Bold, but believable enough considering you saw me play this exact same setup very differently.

[catboi]

I'm going to not have time to properly reread until the morning, but in particular I want skitter/implo to reread and solve in the other locations now that they have a confirmed scum from their POV.

[catboi]

I think Keep should flip first because I think catboi's alignment is high info.

Explain?

[catboi]

I think both implosion and unwnd have bad associatives with catboi, namely the mysterious townreads they kept professing on him

Wasn't implosion agreeing with the scumreads on me?

[catboi]

Somehow I'm only behind a few pages yes I feel like I missed a million years of content.

I'm going to not have time to properly reread until the morning, but in particular I want skitter/implo to reread and solve in the other locations now that they have a confirmed scum from their POV.

Everyone else can do this too by making parallel solves: a scum!skitter and a scum!implo solve. I think that would be helpful.

That's my plan as well, but I think the analysis from them in particular is going to be useful to look back on.

That makes me think scum were forced to do a Gate/Wall swap.

But in this instance, who does that suggest is the team? If the team is unwnd/implo then implo taking the gate is a hard throw, he could have gone to the wall and nobody would have batted an eye

Also, why do you believe I'm somehow a high info flip? You didn't answer me when I asked earlier.

[catboi]

- i townread penguin's anger at implo's hammer (dunno why he would be mad that his partner did that as presumably that would be a good outcome for them)

You don't think he would do that to distance?

Maybe that's not how PP operates, but that's the kind of thing I'd expect from a setup where scum can't directly bus.

I do townread PP on the balance, but I think if he's scum then implosion probably is as well. That seems more likely than him blowing up at a townie, especially since if he were with skitter he'd be genuinely upset that skitter couldn't go gate and he wouldn't want to telegraph that.

I thought his posting there was towny as well, but that kind of in the moment thing is fakeable. On body of work though, if he's scum, I'm never getting there.

(strictly speaking, him not hammering does not clear him, as there is actually benefits to delaying the flip and letting town solve in false worlds.

The frustration and AtE on display aren't what I expect from scumwnd, but I don't really want to read too much into that stuff in and of itself because I don't think it's an impossible road for scum to go down, particularly if they're frustrated at the way things are going. (I know, I know, I'm fencesitting so hard)

[catboi]

Specifically interactions with skitter. If you're scum and we then vote me and win the keep you!scum strongly implies skitter town.

1. You think I couldn't distance?

2. I can see me being scum as a high info flip, that's not hard. But you have only considered the premise where I am scum. What about the world where I'm town? I know for a fact that's the one we're living in, and I don't actually see what my flip tells you about anyone's alignment.

[catboi]

My general take on things right now in wall: I think it's very, very likely that unwnd is town (so S_S is scum now that Penguin is clear, I was leaning that way somewhat strongly but not surely). If unwnd is scum then almost nothing about yesterday/the swap makes sense; in particular, consider things from scum's point of view. Now that we see no swap from keep, we know that the keep was 1 scum before the swap, meaning that scum were probably trying to avoid 2-1-0. If unwnd is scum, I don't see why skitter plays yesterday the way she did, and I don't really see why they'd make that swap. In that world, if T3 is town then scum would have to be semi-abandoning keep based on catboi's rhetoric, and they'd have to be doing something along the lines of thinking skitter wins the 1v1 vs me and that unwnd wins vs penguin and S_S and it just seems worse than swapping like, T3 with me or ssbm and then confirming him. Or swapping catboi somewhere, or doing something like that.

If unwnd is town then things make pretty simple sense; scum had to swap one of skitter/S_S with one of me/unwnd/ssbm. Basically they get to pick what the 1v1 here will be and who will go to the wall with Penguin. They probably chose to IC ssbm because she was the most widely townread, with the hopes that both me/unwnd get mislimmed. If they thought that they had to win both of those then they were probably afraid to put S_S at gate, so it's a matter of who skitter 1v1s and I could imagine them thinking either way would be easier at that point. If skitter/S_S are scum then their play yesterday makes sense, with skitter angling for gate and S_S taking wall to let her go to gate bc they'd rather have her at gate than him and that would leave them with more flexibility with their swap.

For keep I think the world in which T3 is scum changes things a lot in terms of scum's motivations in the case that unwnd is scum but I also just don't think we're in that world on T3's play.

But, then, logically, why does skitter hesitate on going to the gate, when that would theoretically be their optimum grouping, allowing you to ninja her?

I like the way this is written and yet there's a part of me that's afraid of the confidence you already have in such a narrative.

[catboi]

That reaction would be so utterly trivial to do. Lol. Your confidence is bizarre.

[catboi]

I haven't seen a scum get angry and scumread their scumpartner in the main thread.
So
catboi!scum = skitter!town = implosion!scum = win.
Honestly idk if you're town.

I mean, if you have no idea what it means if I flip town, that doesn't make me a high info flip, does it?

[catboi]

I mean, I'm assuming that PP is conftown. At the very least if he's scum he's already secured the win here and is just slow playing.

So I will vote unwnd, there's just no reason to put him in self hammer range yet.

Didn't you say last game that as scum you wouldn't have immediately hammered at the keep like Briar did?

[catboi]

My gut instinct is that unwnd's reactions to skitter do not feel aligned, as they haven't all game. My memory is distorted but I feel like I had to actively chase him down to respond to my posts in the last game of this, and he feels, on some level, like he is really trying to convince her he is town. If one of them flips scum I would clear the other. That's a very surface-y conclusion but that's what I'm thinking right now.


I don't have the mental energy to commit to a reread right now though. I'll do it tomorrow when I have more time.

[catboi]

Catboi - should I vote unwnd or s_s?

I don't have a clue right now. Easy answers are for scum. I wouldn't make a decision in ELO without giving the game reread, and that's how I'm treating this situation.

unwnd felt fairly different from his scumgame I've seen twice now, but he also hadn't been coming across as townie early on. I eventually felt like him intentionally holding back wasn't the approach he'd take as scum. The quick vote is fairly surprising from a town POV because he doesn't strike me as the type who would vote impulsively. Became kind of concerned his approach toward me was pockety, but at the same time I'm not sure why he'd bother here.

something_smart is really difficult to call because he wasn't here for most of the game. I'm not sure there's a lot to read him off of, and if he is scum I don't think there's going to be any really telling partner interactions. I guess I'm concerned that he hasn't said anything at all that came across towny to me.

These are basically just the impressions i'm starting with right now. Like I said, I need to reread.

My gut instinct is that unwnd's reactions to skitter do not feel aligned, as they haven't all game.

I don’t agree atm. Pls explain when you can.

My explanation was what you cut out of the post. That's off gut to how they were acting in recent pages. I do admit the 496 you quoted looks strange, though.

[catboi]

I'm also starting to think Dunn is the scum at keep. Or at least I feel like the game probably makes more sense that way.

Why do you think he took the last spot in the keep, then?

I'm pretty sure the way this setup is designed, it is *never* possible to mathematically deduce information in one location based on the flip in another location. I think it's not possible to deduce anything mathematically at all, actually.

If only we could speak to its designer to get an answer to that...

[catboi]

Scum team is T3, Something_Smart, and then one of skitter/implosion.

Luckily, it doesn't matter how hard scum shades me. I believe T3 is clearly scum in my group from their posts today, which is what I was waiting on.

I don't think catboi is going to impulsively vote for t3 so I'm not in a rush

Funny enough,I was actually leaning on T3-scum, not necessarily because of his words but because of what the people at the gate were saying. I assume scum are at least somewhat playing to win here, and I was suspicious of the conclusion they were angling me toward.

I'll be starting my reread now to look at skitter/implo and unwnd/s_s.

[catboi]

Gut-feelies skim of SS says scum, but don't have a good way of reading him. Largely just feel he's stiff, hasn't had any moments that showed flashes of genuine feeling. But I recognize that it's not always easy to see him as town when he's town. I think if he's scum the read on skitter is likely a distancing one. I don't think he'd expect his reads to hold much sway and would aim for having the "correct" opinion on the gate to make himself look better after that flip.

Rereading unwnd, it is very, very hard for me to see him as scum here. This does not feel like his scumplay that I've experienced at all. I'm not sure how to put it into words precisely, I just feel his posts have been more purposeful and less aimed at appealing to others, the analysis in 599 is also more clear-headed than anything he posted when we were a team, where I'd often read what he wrote and find it incredibly confusing as to what the purpose of it was even supposed to be.

I'll need to review the previous game to fact check myself on this, memory has a habit of distorting things. But that is where my mind is at right now. Their ISOs are short enough that it was an easy review. I still feel like I ought to be attempting more detailed analysis, this was a gloss and that often leads me down the wrong path. But these are the conclusions I got.

[catboi]

The distinction of unwnd isn't as pronounced as I thought, but I still feel his analysis in the other game was using a lot of words to sound complicated that ended up being not particularly meaningful. Also featured attempts to instill doubt in others that I don't really see here. His reaction to pressure was also vastly different, and I think that is the most valuable thing to look at when it comes to meta. Most people can't help but respond differently to accusations depending on their alignment. His ISO from the last game is massive and I'm still working through it, so I don't want to speak concusively but I actually feel okay here.

[catboi]

Ugh - this has not been helpful so far.

Sorry? If there's a way I can be more useful, let me know.

[catboi]

On review of unwnd's (nightmarishly long) meta from last time, I'm okay with calling him town here. There were some flares of anger in that game but it was almost bitterness at being shut out from other people's reads, a bit of self-conscious panic, it didn't have the same self-righteousness as here. It's also the way he's responded to people that's different, there's been something in the way of really appealing to them. I also expect Dunn to read him fairly well if he's town, so there's that.

Also that lost popin from S_S was, well, scummy.

If I'm wrong on unwnd, I still think him/skitter aren't really aligned, though. Not like they couldn't be distancing in the way they acted, I'm just not sure they

bother

with such an elaborate song and dance? Most people distance in a more straightforward way.

[catboi]

The fact that both people at keep are scumreading t3 js troubling. @catboi why is t3 scum?

Why is it particularly troubling, if at least one of us is town? I sort of didn't expect this to be the play Dunn would make as scum. I'm mostly suspicious that gate-scum is trying to steer me in the wrong direction, given y stated willingness to vote T3 on day 1. I'm not particularly sure I can actually read him well, as either alignment a lot of what he says is going to be inexplicable.

[catboi]

Mmm, unwnd really did lay on the AtE very heavily as scum toward the end of last game but it still doesn't feel the same as here. I can't say I'm 100% confident though but he still felt more...rational?

I remembered already reasoning that unwnd/implo feels like nonsense, I'm not sure why, I guess the sense that implo jumping into the gate the way he did would be fairly against win condition. I'm not sure it makes as much sense to me now, maybe I can reread myself and see if I can find a clearer explanation.

[catboi]

I do see why S_S at gate is bad.

I don't think I should go to gate at this point, I think ssbm is the only one somewhat advocating it and I also am in principle concerned about ssbm being confirmed and mishammering me. Though I guess actually at this point she should really try to be as ambiguous about her reads as possible to avoid giving scum any info about a gate related swap. That's true of unwnd as well. Anyone at the gate needs to keep their reads close to their chest before the swap. Maybe Penguin would be good at the gate by that logic since he's been I think leaving the most to the imagination with regards to what his actual reads are.

How did you get from here to hammering the gate?

[catboi]

Also both me and implo are saying we both think t3 is town so like you also have a town who is saying this

Well, yes, but the scum know who the scum are and are playing to that win condition. The town doesn't know.

[catboi]

Now I'm paranoid of skitter :\

T3 and ssbm both say they want me at gate and she says she's probably okay with that and then i assume 592 is her saying she's going to go to gate anyway, immediately after that?? unless i'm misreading 592

This post makes me feel itchy.

[catboi]

In all seriousness, don't hammer just yet. I might want to resolve the keep first.

[catboi]

I guess the problem with both implosion/skitter townreading me is that one is correct on me town but the other one is pocketing me.

But what's the use in pocketing you?

[catboi]

implo's end of day 1 sends me into a spiral and the way he so quickly formed his conclusions at the start of day 2 concerns me, yet as I process through I kind of like 822, the point about S_S feels like a good one.

[catboi]

Was a ride anyway, I went from no clue to suspect to mayyybe town?

I wasted most of my time meta-diving last game's unwnd, I'll have to reserve tomorrow to review skitter.

[catboi]

Hey, Dunn, you still think I'm town?

[catboi]

Want to prove it right now?

[catboi]

Idk which of u 2 is town and i dislike that catboi is asking you to vote when he made a massive thing justifying taking keep by waying he would vote first, it looks to me like he isnt living up to the ome thing he kept sayig he would do so that people would know he is town in keep

I expected to wield the hammer but Dunn offered to vote me. I feel like as town I have every reason to not pass it up if someone offers to trust me. Of course, the same would be true for scum-me but I don't see what leads you one way or the other.

[catboi]

I mean, I guess it's bad if you've already concluded that I'm scum, but then you should be willing to let me vote anyone else.

[catboi]

Yeah, but town-me has every reason to want a 100% outcome rather than a 50% one, right?

[catboi]

Plus, without much else to read Dunn on, I think it's helpful to see if his offer of voting is a bluff or not.

[catboi]

One of u 2 to vote t3

~
Catboi you literally cant spend half a game arguing scum-you wouldn take keep because you're locking yourself in be the first voter and then tell me i shouldnt scumread you for asking other people to vote first

Because yeah i do view that as you trying to get out of doing the one thing you said you would do to make you taking keep not as bad as it looked at first glance

Why couldn't I just vote dunn, then?

[catboi]

But fypov if I'm scum it shouldn't matter if it's dunn over T3, yeah?

[catboi]

I plan on casting my vote at the keep as kingmaker, yeah.

I would vote for you.

[catboi]

As either alignment I have motivation to act selfishly here if the opportunity presents itself. I don't think it's hard to grasp why I'd hesitate to go down the route that I know scum (you or implo) is presenting to me.

[catboi]

Catboi you're kinda avoiding the crux of my issue here ...

And thay was 2 irl days ago

I mean, my issue here is that if you're scum you have evey reason to want to steer town toward an incorrect conclusion, and that's kind of what I'm worried you're doing.

[catboi]

Okay but as town I have reason to want to be voted too!

[catboi]

Catboi you're kinda avoiding the crux of my issue here ...

And thay was 2 irl days ago

I mean, my issue here is that if you're scum you have evey reason to want to steer town toward an incorrect conclusion, and that's kind of what I'm worried you're doing.

And i mean, my issur here is that if you're scum you have every reason to want to encourage other people in keep to vote first, and that's kind of what i'm worried you're doing

On my end, i've explained why i think t3 is town and you're not engaging with that, but rather choosing to reduce his play to being 'inexplicable' without really trying to read him imo

Your entire reluctabce for t3 is not based on an actual read of him

Shrug, I'll read him if I have to but I feel like you're trying to manipulate me.

[catboi]

Do you see how it feels, skitter? To feel like someone is trying to manipulate you?

[catboi]

Dunn, would you vote for me? I want to clear myself.

[catboi]

I didn't expect to be given an opportunity. But I'm not sure if the opportunity is real or just an attempt to get me to change my mind.

[catboi]

I didn't expect to be given an opportunity. But I'm not sure if the opportunity is real or just an attempt to get me to change my mind.

What happened to 'picking keep to control your own destiny'?

...someone offered to vote for me.

If he pulls back and says he changed his mind, I'll still cast the vote myself.

[catboi]

He offered it 2 days ago irl so i'm kinda confused ehy you're jumping on this *now* and acting like this is an importang thing to resolve when uou didng seem to care abt it when he actually did

And i think that if you actually wanted fo go to keep to vote yourself you would be more focused on making that happen

because at the time I didn't want to rush, I wanted to read between everyone else and try to scumhunt in the other locations, because I believe that's the best thing to do as town.

Why the hell should it matter that I'm asking about it now? Would you have found it *less* scummy if I'd immediately asked for him to vote me?

[catboi]

And as for being focused on making a vote on myself happen, I think it's just not in my personality, I don't try to brute force townreads on myself but if someone says they think I'm town? Well, cool, I'll take it.

[catboi]

hi i accidentally just played a board game for 4 hours and need to go to sleep now >.>

i caught up and now actually think dunn might be the best vote in keep??? or at least i think i would rather catboi vote dunn than dunn vote catboi if they're not voting T3. but i am coming around on t3-scum as a possibility

bwuhhhh

[catboi]

Very nervous, but only because I haven't actually reread skitter. Her posts certainly haven't made me think town. But that last post from implo didn't really inspire confidence in me either. What's got you so decided?

[catboi]

That last post from implo, though - it's like, he's been saying he thinks it's dunn, but now suddenly dunn is the best vote, but he's coming around on t3 as scum, because...reasons? I don't know the more I think about it the more paranoid it makes me.

[catboi]

I'm just not sure how to square Dunn's play right now with being scum;

Okay, that is close to what I was thinking, I just found the way you had posted about it to be unnerving

[catboi]

I think the gate being polarized on the keep now is at least...good? That ought to make it easier on me.

[catboi]

The early approach from skitter toward kyouko still feels pockety, on a reread.

I'm hesitant to get omgus-y on her suspicion of me because that paranoia partly just lost me trust fall, but blah. I'm not sure, on net in this reread, that she actually looks any more town. The reads feel...I don't know. She's just making conclusions but I'm not sure how authentic they are. For the first half of this game there's a lack of depth, it's just statements such as "bad vibes" or "hollow", but she only gets into detail when criticizing me, but I'm easy to criticize and I don't think the reasoning is more likely to come from town. I had assumed the body of work was going to outweigh implosion's contribution when I started, and yet reading along I feel skeptical. I'm not sure there's ever a moment that feels distinctly like a towntell to me.

[catboi]

Honestly i'm feeling p good abt my reads. I think uwnd was planning on 1v1ing me if i had gone to gate yesterday, which would imply the swap was gonna be betwewn wall and keep

That probably says something abt the town-scum distribution at wall-keep at the time but i havent figured that out yet

This is a baffling post. If unwnd was planning on 1v1ing you why would you ever think his teammate would cut him off like that?

[catboi]

I have absolutley no idea and i think he loses this so yeah
Idk what they were thinking

This also is something I have trouble squaring as a real thought

[catboi]

I'm p sure t3 is town in the keep
Catboi voting him would resolve a lot of the issues there. Not sure i know who the scum is but i'm p sure voting t3 wins that section

And at wall still p sure penguin is town

I dont *think* unwnd is scum from my pov (?) but irs possible i'm missing something. I do think he is p scummy tho and had ulterior motives for wanting me to go to gate yesterday

Sorry to clarify the sentence abt unwnd: i'm trying to sort out if the swap lets me read anything into his alignment from my pov and i dont think (?) I can

I wasnt trying to say i think he's town

This is also quite a twisty statement on unwnd

[catboi]

From my pov:
Implosion is scum
Unwnd is much more likely to be scum than ss
I think both implosion and unwnd have bad associatives with catboi, namely the mysterious townreads they kept professing on him

Also i think that most townies have a similar reaction to catboi taking keep as i did: extreme surprise/annoyance. Pp, ss, and t3 all had similar reactions to me, and implosion/unwnd had very ~santized~ reactions

That last line is so shallow. It's ridiculous.

[catboi]

Skitter-scum here might involve her pushing entirely false worlds though, and I'm not sure I believe that. More confident on s_s scum than anything.

[catboi]

to my posts in the last game of this, and he feels, on some level, like he is really trying to convince her he is town

I feel like this too
Honestly in my mind the game feels somewhat solved:
-implo at gate
- unwnd at wall
- vote t3 at keep

I'm not buying the attitude here

[catboi]

I would hate for me to be butting heads with a townie yet again but after that read of skitter's ISO I'm not seeing a lot that gives me pause.


I suppose I'l turn my attention to T3 now.

[catboi]

Something has to give. I have to be off somewhere, scum never perfectly align.

[catboi]

I can confirm that's true, I just...still think you're scum.

[catboi]

Where would you have gone, then? It's not like the other locations are particularly more enticing.

[catboi]

Why?

[catboi]

Given the fact that I'm 1-9 (I think?) for all my scumgames and my only win was because I hardbussed my entire scumteam day 1 and was limmed for it if I were scum I would never want to go to keep.

Help me understand this…

Scum me is bad at getting townread -> Keep relies on being townread -> scum me would probably always lose keep.

pedit: Higher chance of winning.

I mean, you have to be townread at the other locations, too. The challenge elsewhere is that you have to make arguments as to why someone else is scum, rather than just going "well I know I'm town"


This is not particularly useful from me, I admit, but I haven't had the motivation to reread you yet.

[catboi]

Sigh.

[catboi]

I have regrets.

I feel like implo was trying to nudge me toward a dunn vote when he saw me wavering though. That's my main takeaway.

[catboi]

My typical expectation for scum is that they WIFOM their reads and try to distance with the expectation they'll flip and people will do the opposite of what they say, but I don't know how much to weigh that vs implo trying to put out a perspective he thought was coherent.

My immediate GTH still says unwnd town but i feel less confident about that than I did 24 hours ago.

[catboi]

My typical expectation for scum is that they WIFOM their reads and try to distance with the expectation they'll flip and people will do the opposite of what they say, but I don't know how much to weigh that vs implo trying to put out a perspective he thought was coherent.

My immediate GTH still says unwnd town but i feel less confident about that than I did 24 hours ago.

I think for this reason we ignore flipped scum's recommendations on who is town/scum at Wall/Keep and focus on the tone of their interactions instead. What looks SvS, what looks TvS, where are they fanning the flames of TvT, etc.

I know, I agree in principle, but I largely felt like implo was confident on Dunn being scum when I had entered the day saying me voting T3 was a foregone conclusion, but when I was visibly wavering and hesitate he started to try to incline me toward voting Dunnstral. It felt manipulative. On that and the strength of skitter's read on T3, I feel like it's better to go with how I felt about things day 1, rather than overthinking my process here. I thought implosion's jump to the gate was nonsensical and scummy but leveled myself into doubting it. I don't want to do the same again.

The fact that I asked for Dunn to act on his apparent trust of me and got crickets in response made me feel the offer was hollow.

[catboi]

unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

Congrats. You are scum who has pulled reads out of your ass.

Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

I orginally thought this was scummy, but then I thought it was towny, now I realize this is NAI

This post is pretty "hello world, I have an internal thought process! Guess I can't be scum!"

I say that, then go back and

immediately

doubt myself because I remember this interaction

[catboi]

Well, there it is. I'm town.

[catboi]

That was a big ass-saver because I was probably going to screw it up.

[catboi]

I was actually going to type a post where I was second-guessing myself again. Now I'm going to reread T3 on the assumption he is scum. But my feeling is the game has largely consisted of the townies getting into skirmishes with each other while the scum mostly stick to the sidelines, which would still point to something_smart as scum. But I'll do a brief reading with that in mind.

[catboi]

Right now I would put T3 at the Keep as a preemptive take

I'm not sure whether that's supposed to be a townread or a scumread.

kyo's plan is towny. unwnd is towny for the whole thing about plotting. implosion is probably scum for the faking reads and then saying giving scum info is good.

What if me, unwnd, and Aurelia's next top townread go to the keep?

This feels less aligned for how he'd treat a partner early. He does move into scumreading unwnd as the game progresses as well, although it doesn't feel quite as forced as his implosion read. I need to check to see how unwnd responded to him.

[catboi]

This is the exact kind of wall scumwnd makes.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

I am a very spiteful town player and will do things just to prove a point.

When T3/Kyouko both started to engage the thread as if I were scum for basically unilateral reasons it caused an uptick. T3 has no fucking idea how I play scum and certainly Kyouko doesn't.

Ooofff.

[catboi]

Not sure what to make of SS. His posts haven't pinged me either way.

Shocking.

Anything in particular you want to hear my thoughts on?

implosion.

Skimmed through his ISO a few times, nothing really stood out much. It's somewhat towny that he went completely back on his early townreads, and his mechanics takes seem mostly solid, but I wouldn't expect any of that to be far out of his scumrange.

oh MAN

[catboi]

That was very unhelpful, I'm sorry. I don't think unwnd's venom toward T3 is out of his range but their early interactions feel like they would be bold to come from scum. That line from T3 asking s_s about implosion specifically feels...very forced. I doing so I re-skimmed something_smart's iso and he'd still probably be my vote there if I had hammer, but I would feel very unconfident about it and would probably close the tab and run away immediately after doing so, and not check bak until hours later.

kyouko, penguin: Is there anything in particular you want to ask me as newly confirmed town before I get us the confirmation of the flip?

[catboi]

Yeah I regret that one too. Lot of ego getting in the way there in spite of me actively recognizing it as a problem.

[catboi]

Sorry for not being active I just feel like having gone through the game already, I don't have a ton to add.

[catboi]

We have less than 3 days to deadline...I'll give the cases a look but honestly I'm going to defer judgment here because I feel as though my handle on the game isn't very good. I'll probably be selfvoting so we can get resolved in time.

[catboi]

I believe unwnd's narration of is thought process still and think there's a coherency there he doesn't possess as scum. something_smart's point about his snapvote did give me pause but I feel like scum are more likely to be careful with their progressions in that sort of instance and that recklessness more likely comes from town. But I'm just guessing.

Dunn can weigh in if he likes. Like I said I think he probably reads unwnd pretty reliably. I'm assuming T3's radio silence is a scumclaim, I'm not going to selfvote here just now for the fringe scenario where T3 hammers me to cut off input from Dunn. I think the early townread on unwnd from T3 is significantly less likely to be one on a teammate.

For what it's worth unwnd didn't feel distancing was necessary in the first iteration of this, I would keep that in mind when looking at his interactions.

[catboi]

Distancing is generally encouraged in this setup because the locations can't directly affect each other, so you can pay them lip service and not have to actually worry about contributing to killing them. But, it benefits scum to make sure they get set in locations before distancing, so they don't have to do something suboptimal just to have their actions make sense with their reads. It makes total sense to say that unwnd townread T3 early to get him in the keep, and then tried to gradually reverse that by stirring up paranoia about him being scum faking stubborn town. But there's not any indication of him using actual evidence or reasoning to reverse the read.

That's technically correct, I'm just not sure either of them plays it that way. It contrasts sharply with T3's TMI-ey attack on implosion very early. But I could be overthinking it.

[catboi]

VOTE: catboi

I'm just going to leave it in your hands now. Do what you feel is best.

[catboi]

Good luck

[catboi]

GG, tense game.


Sorry for the tunnel, skitter.

[catboi]

oh sorry for the tunnel on kyouko too, great job at the end

Definitely an intense setup as town