Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 join me at gate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's hard to interpret really. I was scum there so I can tell you my motivations for doing so previously-- which was basically mitigating control. I jumped early because I wanted to limit town's options to synchronize, and because I felt the ~~no fear~~ approach would be townie. Is Kyouko doing the exact same thing? I don't know because he doesn't have the same experience as I do now.

That's funny you thought that as scum before, because I didnt want to give scum time to plan anything.

T3 you're a lurksack so if you dont get into Gate I'll treat it as a scumclaim. Scum does not want you at Gate as they either have to swap you (takes away their agency), IC you (gives you a clear when lurkers are usually bait), or try to mislim you (you have the defense that you're bait)

So if you're town get in. If any others hammer gate before T3 that's also a scumclaim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So T3 is scum, that wasn't too hard

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 you're a lurksack so if you dont get into Gate I'll treat it as a scumclaim. Scum does not want you at Gate as they either have to swap you (takes away their agency), IC you (gives you a clear when lurkers are usually bait), or try to mislim you (you have the defense that you're bait)

Ssbm have u played witb t3 before?

yeah I have at least 1 recent completed with him where he was traitor to my scumteam, and one with an alt where he was scum. Not sure if any of our other games are completed yet.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

petition to force implosion and T3 into the thunderdome with me.

All those in favor HURT: bdsm_ultimate_detective

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Did ssbm object to that?

Yes, loudly. I object to T3 going anywhere but Gate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So T3 is scum, that wasn't too hard

Would you have thought he was town if he immediately acquiesced to your request?

No, but putting him in Gate forces scum's hand if he is town, and if he is scum he will either die in the thunderdome or get swapped out, which is also forcing their hand

[ssbm_Kyouko]

unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

Congrats. You are scum who has pulled reads out of your ass.

I'm not, but good try!

Yeah I'm willing to divulge a bit. I'm sure scum is already aware of it, but there's a mechanic that allows them to switch people. This works in town's favor as well however given that two scum cannot be in the same place. Therefore, my intent in the last game was to not make any sudden movements. I didn't want to confirm any information basically. The town in that game tried to use I believe Keep(?) to box in scumreads or something to that effect. We ended up exactly 1-1-1 in terms of wagon makeup where Ydrasse followed my lead, and then catboi just happened to find himself elsewhere too. I think it's a dangerous game (for scum) if they just let townies start plotting because then the onus is put onto them, and it becomes a matter of reacting less to what town does and more about complying and hoping that their plans are misguided.

This is roughly what I figured; notably a single person doing an early jump has no impact on this plan because it doesn't matter

that

much which of the three locations we use for which purpose if we do want to go this route.

Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

I orginally thought this was scummy, but then I thought it was towny, now I realize this is NAI

This post is pretty "hello world, I have an internal thought process! Guess I can't be scum!"

hmm hot take T3-implosion is theatre

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Prety much. There was also that you took your meta into account when reading implosion which is +town.

I also think implosion is scum so you can join me here (:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ssbm how would u rate ur scumgame? What do u think ur strengths are as scum?

My strengths are bussing convincingly, my weaknesses are being tmi and I sometimes have a hard time staying motivated as scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like I think this obviously isn't my scumgame, from an outsider's POV. I've tried tweaking my townplay so I hyperpost at a similar ratio but the way I respond to scumreads is way different .

We're on page 5 with nothing decided yet (except for ssbm)

In the past I made a conscious effort to make my town game look scummy so it would be hard to tell the difference, but then I got better as a town player and it was hard to match my towngame's WIM as scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh and that's quoted because Dunn seems talkative this game

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like Kyo's plan with me at the gate is anti-town but not necessarily scum.

Mmm, elaborate from both angles:
Scum!T3 at Gate
Town!T3 at Gate

How is you coming to the gate anti-town, in both cases

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like Kyo's plan with me at the gate is anti-town but not necessarily scum.

Mmm, elaborate from both angles:
Scum!T3 at Gate
Town!T3 at Gate

How is you coming to the gate anti-town, in both cases

Because contrary to popular opinion, I am not limbait this game.

Well limbait is something that people say about townies who are easy to mislim. So you're saying you're scum this game?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also you say popular opinion like there are a lot of people that share my viewpoint. As far as I can tell I'm alone in this. Could it be the pressure is getting to you already?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think T3 is scum and skitter is buddying me so he can be scum too, but skitter seems like a popular read. Implosion also scummy I think.

Penguin is waiting for someone to send him somewhere, indicating to me he either isn't confident in his assessment of the setup, or is baiting as town, or is just scum looking for townpoints

Unwind, what do you make of me going to Gate this early? You asked someone if they're alright with it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Keep
Let's get the ball rolling.

Running away I see. Penguin, get his ass

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry skitter

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ssbm how would u rate ur scumgame? What do u think ur strengths are as scum?

My strengths are bussing convincingly, my weaknesses are being tmi and I sometimes have a hard time staying motivated as scum

Thanks!

Tbh i'm kinda having a hard time seeing u come after t3 this hard as scum

Well, see, my problem with the whole approach is that kyouko seems to be basing her read entirely on whether T3 submits to her, and I don't find the way she's executing it to look like a genuine attempt to read into T3's alignment. If she had gotten an early townread on him and wanted him to go to the gate, that would be understandable. If the proposed plan had been an attempt to gauge his alignment by how he reacted to it. But that doesn't quite seem to be what's going on. Instead, the approach she's seems solely geared toward attempting to intimidate him into going to a location that is, frankly, unoptimal for him. It doesn't look like there's any attempt to genuinely read into T3's alignment off what he's saying, and instead just attack him - 135 is particularly noxious in that regard.

Were this a regular game, I could maybe see it as an attempt to pressure him but in this setup that doesn't really work, and the approach here makes more sense as either trying to make T3 an elimmable suspect on day 2 or pit him against implosion based on his existing stated suspicions - I'm not sure why as town you'd actively try to get 2 scumreads into a location with you but it makes great sense as scum if you believe one will surefire vote the other. I'm struggling to see much of any of it as town motivated play.

No strong opinions of any posts here, which may be troublesome if the clock keeps ticking down. Are people afraid of making stances? Are they simply waiting for something to happen? I don't mean to be hypocritical but I don't have enough to generate a wall.

It's...barely over 24 hours into Day 1? Why the impatience?

You're misunderstanding what is going on. I think regardless of his alignment, T3 should be in the Gate. You disagree with that, I know, as you said scum!you salivates at the prospect of ICing town!T3

The way I see it, town!T3 is good at the gate with me because either I will be ICed or swapped, or he will be ICed or swapped. If he is ICed, I think he will be able to see this is my towngame, and we will win at Gate. That was my ideal world. If I am ICed, I'll get to play the whole game after Gate ends, and I think I can read him, so I think this is also protown

If T3 is scum, which I think he is, not because he didn't come to gate right away, but because of his overreactions, then if we can get another scum into Gate with me and T3, then scum is FORCED to switch with the Gate in some way, and forcing scum to switch with the gate is optimal.

Why is it optimal? The gate is the best game to flip first because the IC gets stumped. Which means if scum switches between the keep and the wall, we will get no info on the swapped players if we finish gate first. We want to finish the Gate first. We can also make scum swap.with Gate if 3 town fill it. Now that T3 has gone to keep, I dont want scumreads in Gate.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Were this a regular game, I could maybe see it as an attempt to pressure him but in this setup that doesn't really work, and the approach here makes more sense as either trying to make T3 an elimmable suspect on day 2 or pit him against implosion based on his existing stated suspicions - I'm not sure why as town you'd actively try to get 2 scumreads into a location with you but it makes great sense as scum if you believe one will surefire vote the other. I'm struggling to see much of any of it as town motivated play.

Say for arguments sake I am scum, and I want town!T3 and town!Implosion in there with me. I'm going to have to IC one of them, and if i forced them both into the keep with me, is the IC really going to vote the other one over me? Keep in mind I sr both of them, so the ICed one would have reason to be thinking very critically about my motivation for bringing them both into Gate.

I dont think you've really thought this through from both perspectives. You should probably join T3.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Were this a regular game, I could maybe see it as an attempt to pressure him but in this setup that doesn't really work, and the approach here makes more sense as either trying to make T3 an elimmable suspect on day 2 or pit him against implosion based on his existing stated suspicions - I'm not sure why as town you'd actively try to get 2 scumreads into a location with you but it makes great sense as scum if you believe one will surefire vote the other. I'm struggling to see much of any of it as town motivated play.

Say for arguments sake I am scum, and I want town!T3 and town!Implosion in there with me. I'm going to have to IC one of them, and if i forced them both into the keep with me, is the IC really going to vote the other one over me? Keep in mind I sr both of them, so the ICed one would have reason to be thinking very critically about my motivation for bringing them both into Gate.

I dont think you've really thought this through from both perspectives. You should probably join T3.

Yeah but you can swap.

Guess what happens if scum!me swaps? Gate flips first, and I get confirmed to be scum in another running minigame if I swapped out of gate with flipped scum, which I would have to if you and implosion are both town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So t3 and catboi are both not thinking through what actually happens if I'm scum. Almost as if they know I'm not (:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Theoretically you could swap one of me or implosion with someone else. If implosion is scum I don't think you're scum.

I could, but then it's still pro-town: Gate flips first and the IC still gets to help the other 2 games.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also if you have a not teamed read on implosion and I then why would you not want to come to Gate with us?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Better question: Why not someone else? Your assumption rests entirely that I'm limbait and townread you?

Theres room for a third at Gate I wanted you though because FMPOV, toen benefits regardless of your alignment if you were in gate with me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Guess what happens if scum!me swaps? Gate flips first, and I get confirmed to be scum in another running minigame if I swapped out of gate with flipped scum, which I would have to if you and implosion are both town.

Don't think this is how the setup works.

At this point I actually feel townish on both T3 and ssbm, moreso on T3.

I think catboi could be scum.

Oh yeah technically I could be town there still if there are 2 scum in wherever I'm swapped to and 1 in the third location at day end, you're right.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What if T3 and I draft our townreads into our locations and the rest end up at wall? And people can Express nays if it looks like one of us is scum trying to draft a townie so that all scum dont end up in one spot?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So if were both town and we can correctly form townblocks, we'll win

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dunnstral, unwnd, if either of you were to come to the Gate now with me, who would you want as a third and why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also think it's a good idea to grab people in pairs for Gate and Keep. If we do that, then the group consensus on those pairs should be that they are both town. And pairs should have to TR each other too. If we can pair people off like this it makes it harder for scum to sneak into a pair. Then we decide where the pair should go, Gate or Keep, and then decide on another pair. And you can always put your scumreads together in a pair and put them with me or with T3 if you think either of us are scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Putting together pairs and hammering a location gives us a better chance at an all town location and a 0-1-2 scum split or instant win. If we can do that we limit scum's options. If they get 1-1-1 split they can swap any townies with other townies or any scum with other scum at any location. Getting them to 0-1-2 locks it down the options for them quite a bit

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also if you have a not teamed read on implosion and I then why would you not want to come to Gate with us?

I'm not sure where this is coming from; why would specifically not being in a place with two scum together be incentive to go there? As far as I can tell, the vague goal of the town should be to be in the same place as two other townies (because this is the only way to win the game outright in phase one) and barring that, being in the same place as two scum is preferable to one of each (because at least

in theory

we'll get more info if the split contains a 1-2 and a 3-0 location rather than three 2-1 locations).

In this case it's only applicable at Gate- if there are 2 players at gate that seem to not be teamed and one gets ICed, the other looks more likely to be scum to the outside. Inside the Gate, the VT knows who the scum is right away, but for the other 4 town outside gate, getting "not partners" into Gate is good

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But I do agree, ideally getting 3 town into one place is good. If T3 is town and he thinks you and I are not partnered, it's a good shot at a 3-town location

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm not really sure how to read skitter but I think town!skitter usually is less sure of her reads.

What do you think of skitter's sureness of her reads in this game? I'm not sure if this post implies you think skitter is town or scum, even with the context of your "if she is scum she is trying to pocket me" post.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Unwnd feels too careful and self-conscious to be town imo. They haven't really provided anything reads-wise. They've offered some mechanical advice, like that T3 should be at keep and offered their motive for quickly hopping in the last time they rolled scum in this setup. 34 with 49 seem like an attempt to undermine me, and when I addressed them directly in there has been no response.

So I don't think 49 is an attempt to sort, I think it's just meant as a leading question and also to identify who might be suspicious of me. I also notice that now that they're back, they have not responded to my direct question in 184, which clearly identifies where I am right now. She's slipping that she forgot where I am in posts she made after 184, which tells me she's skimmed over my post. This is something scum does because they have no need to sort the player they're skimming over.

I find it odd that she suggests Me/T3/Dunnstral as a location group as well, because I would think if she wants a group of 3 in a specific location, she would a)want herself in that group, because if town, she should want to have to only be right about 2 other unknown alignment players being town instead of 3, and b) would have strong TRs on all 3 of us, or strong SRs on all 3 of us. If she is skimming my posts, how does she have either?

Skimming my posts when she's been complaining about the lack of content is bad too. unwnd very scummy here.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Unwnd feels too careful and self-conscious to be town imo. They haven't really provided anything reads-wise. They've offered some mechanical advice, like that T3 should be at keep and offered their motive for quickly hopping in the last time they rolled scum in this setup. 34 with 49 seem like an attempt to undermine me, and when I addressed them directly in there has been no response.

So I don't think 49 is an attempt to sort, I think it's just meant as a leading question and also to identify who might be suspicious of me.

I also notice that now that they're back, they have not responded to my direct question in 184, which clearly identifies where I am right now. She's slipping that she forgot where I am in posts she made after 184, which tells me she's skimmed over my post. This is something scum does because they have no need to sort the player they're skimming over.

I find it odd that she suggests Me/T3/Dunnstral as a location group as well, because I would think if she wants a group of 3 in a specific location, she would a)want herself in that group, because if town, she should want to have to only be right about 2 other unknown alignment players being town instead of 3, and b) would have strong TRs on all 3 of us, or strong SRs on all 3 of us. If she is skimming my posts, how does she have either?

Skimming my posts when she's been complaining about the lack of content is bad too. unwnd very scummy here.

Btw, the bolded was written and drafted as of earlier today before unwnd posted. I thought that she had come back and ignored my question but when I re-read I saw she hadn't posted again since my question, so I saved the draft and waited for her to return to thread.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

and unwnd not going anywhere quickly in this game is probably just to not look the same way she did when she was scum last time, for anyone else who was in that game and saw her do it. From what I understand S_S wrote the setup so maybe he was mod in that game, and he is the connection to that game. If he is the only connection to that game, it is highly likely that scum!unwnd means town!S_S

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also I think I'm TRing Penguin rn and may want him for Gate as well, so Penguin I'd like it if you waited and we got a pairing consensus on where to send you and with whom before you go to either one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I am a male, a geriatric one

Sorry, started the post with they since your pronouns arent listed and went with the avatar.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's better to have the top townreads in the keep because you only need 2 obvtown to guarantee a win and not 3 like in Wall or Gate.

While this is true, you're not obvtown

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's better to have the top townreads in the keep because you only need 2 obvtown to guarantee a win and not 3 like in Wall or Gate.

While this is true, you're not obvtown

And in noticing that, you should have waited to move to keep until there was a consensus you are obvtown, instead of arbitrarily declaring yourself obvtown and dodging me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In theory having discussion and trying rto group townreads together at locations is a good way to play this, however, I can't help but worry the way it's going will lead people into confirmation bias and that sort of thing becomes very easy to exploit with the swap. I'm tempted to call kyouko's bluff about me and T3 right now, tbh.

This is exactly what scum would say if T3 is town btw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

and unwnd not going anywhere quickly in this game is probably just to not look the same way she did when she was scum last time, for anyone else who was in that game and saw her do it. From what I understand S_S wrote the setup so maybe he was mod in that game, and he is the connection to that game. If he is the only connection to that game, it is highly likely that scum!unwnd means town!S_S

See, you had me going with the unwnd scum theory because I thought it was plausible, and then you make this post where you make a hypothesis based on arbitrary assumptions that are untrue whilst not bothering to do the bare minimum of research to see that unwnd, S_S, Dunnstral, and me were all players in the previous run of this game, (and I have referred to seeing it from the other side), and so I think posts like this are just meant to look impressive in terms of looking solvey while actually being utterly hollow and worthless and showing a complete lack of thought.

or, or, or... you read my post, and see that I specify that I am uncertain - "if he is the only connection to that game." I have admittedly not looked at that game, because I said "if". You would know I have not looked at the game, because you were in the game and know that S_S is not the only connection

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I was more curious about ssbm and dunn in that trio

Kinda wanto keep unwnd/catboi out of the keep

VOTE: keep

yeah you're just scum here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't know if Catboi does the same strategy twice. It could be a WIFOM play int that sense but for now

That felt oddly spiteful?

In a sense, yeah, it was a knee-jerk reactionary move but it is worth remembering that putting myself at the keep would be enitrely unoptimal and nonsensical as scum. I don't expect to be voted at the keep

and I absolutely do not care about that

.

I dont know but nothing ur saying feels townie, dislike that you're discrediting ssbm, and i've no idea what the town motivation for that was either

Shrug, I think her posts are remarkably hollow. I think it's easy to make a bunch of strategic posturing but none of it feels like an authentic attempt to gamesolve and people are crediting her for volume more than anything substantial. "Nothing feels townie" is vague, I have admittedly been closed off with my reads to this point but I haven't particularly had any desire to impress with my play so far.

When you say it's a knee-jerk reactionary move, it's really LAMIST - and then to say it's nonsensical to put yourself at keep is just bad. Keep is the easiest place for scum I think because

everyone

at Keep is kingmaker, because everyone votes themselves at keep until a town player is convinced that someone else is town. as scum at Keep, all you have to do is look town. You don't have to convince town that town is scum, like you have to at Gate and Wall. Imo it's easier to make yourself look town than it is to mislim town, so Keep is the ideal place for scum.

Also the fact that your immediate reaction is: oh this would have been so silly to do as scum (twice now)

Makes me feel like you're scum just playing that card

Also, i really, really dont think ssbm's posts are fake, and they feel like legitimate attenpts to gamesolve to me
It feels like she's thought quite a lot abt the optimal placements/strategy for town and is working to realize that vision

It also looks to me like catboi is just going with LAMIST and WIFOM yeah (inb4 ooh, buzzwords, so scary)

I think I want skitter in Gate with me at end of page 11, but in case skitter and unwnd are "bussing" catboi right now, I want unwnd in Keep with catboi so that they are forced to swap catboi or unwnd out if they are partnered. Still considering Peng for Gate too, need to find a good pairing though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the person eho is most town (not you) should get to vote, and if ur scum you wont at all

Why would the person who is most town not simply want themself to get voted? This doesn't make a lick of sense. Of course, if I am scum there is no reason for me to vote,

but you already have my word that I will vote

, and if I go back on it I obviously won't get voted myself, which would guarantee a town win in the event I am scum.


So, again, I very much fail to see what your problem is supposed to be.

This is worthless, because at the time you vote, the Keep game ends. As scum, you can just say you're not sure yet, and the burden still falls on the other town to identify one another. Or, as scum, you can be swapped out so you don't have to follow through. As town, you can be swapped out to make it appear that you're scum that is trying to not follow through on your word here. So we can't put any stock in this.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't know why you think I'm bussing catboi, I think the last time I implied I read I thought he was town?

256 looks like a partner interaction - to me it reads like you think he is posting in a spiteful way, which is more likely scum than town imo. Since it looks like a partner interaction and it looks like you imply he is scummy for being spiteful, I see it as "bussing", in quotations, because we aren't actually voting anyone out yet. I am wary that you are trying to make yourself appear to not be partnered with him because you 2 are my top 2 scumreads right now. Skitter seems to also SR catboi though, so if I want skitter in Gate I feel the need to balance it with you in Keep so that if both of you are distancing from catboi, scum don't end up with 1-1-1.

pedit: you don't lose until town identifies each other. What if one town decides the other is scum and votes you by POE, then scum!you wins

[ssbm_Kyouko]

top

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: theatre

I have two scumreads now I think

I know I'm being vague but it will come to fruition, eventually

I have two scumreads now I think

I know I'm being vague but it will come to fruition, eventually

Now I'm 1 name away from having a day 1 hero solve

I have two scumreads now I think

I know I'm being vague but it will come to fruition, eventually

Now I'm 1 name away from having a day 1 hero solve

I'm afraid of saying mine honestly

I have two scumreads now I think

I know I'm being vague but it will come to fruition, eventually

Now I'm 1 name away from having a day 1 hero solve

I'm afraid of saying mine honestly

Understandable.

To be clear, I have 1 scumread and 3 names I feel unresolved on - one of those is obviously something_smart, who hasn't had enough input for me to have a read. If I can get one of those 3 unknown reads as town I'd feel comfy. Some of that probably gets resolved when my move to day 2, though.

HURT: unwnd to send them to Keep

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, but I'm not getting voted, so, again, the idea that this is a scum gambit falls totally flat. I'm going to vote for who I think is town, hopefully I will be right, I will flip town and leave a legacy read that you should be voted no matter what.

My motivation here as town is pretty simple: I get to be the deciding vote at the keep, I get to control my own destiny, and I don't even have to convince anyone to crossvote for me, which is the most annoying part of being in 3p. If I sense that there's an active campaign to discredit me, why would I not want to be at the place where me being scumread is far less important than my ability to correctly identify who is town?

It doesn't particularly

matter

to me that I get townread here but you're so obviously trying to force-fit the read at this point, which is why I think you're scum.

oh damn keep is hammered... but now that it's hammered with 2 low activity players, if they're both town (T3 and Dunnstral), it will be easy for scum to swap scum!catboi out for a deepwolf if they can get 1-1-1, and get that deepwolf to be TRed. I think now what we want is the consensus scumreads in Wall so that if we get 2/3 there, scum!catboi is forced to stay in keep, and scum has to swap a Wall-Scum for a Gate-Town.

Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

pedit: you don't lose until town identifies each other. What if one town decides the other is scum and votes you by POE, then scum!you wins

Do you actually think that is remotely likely based on your reading of the game?

if scum can achieve 1-1-1 it's possible for you to bring a sympathetic townie into keep, yes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't know why you think I'm bussing catboi, I think the last time I implied I read I thought he was town?

256 looks like a partner interaction - to me it reads like you think he is posting in a spiteful way, which is more likely scum than town imo. Since it looks like a partner interaction and it looks like you imply he is scummy for being spiteful, I see it as "bussing", in quotations, because we aren't actually voting anyone out yet. I am wary that you are trying to make yourself appear to not be partnered with him because you 2 are my top 2 scumreads right now. Skitter seems to also SR catboi though, so if I want skitter in Gate I feel the need to balance it with you in Keep so that if both of you are distancing from catboi, scum don't end up with 1-1-1.

pedit: you don't lose until town identifies each other. What if one town decides the other is scum and votes you by POE, then scum!you wins

No, if you read my last post you can see I still think he's town and think his spitefulness comes from a good place.

I see that now that I've read further, but I draw a different conclusion from your observation of the spitefulness than you did

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe swap skitter for implosion...

skitter-unwnd-S_S at wall, implosion-Peng at Gate. I think Peng comes to gate for sure, but I'm not sure who should be with him.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I legitimately cannot tell at this point if kyouko's warped view of the game is complete blinkered town obliviousness or scum that is simply not actually reading the game. I don't feel like skitter's defense of her was partnery but it's hard to wrap my head around.

This is what scum does to me btw, seen it often. They don't engage because it's hard to argue with me for a prolonged period, and eventually they resort to discrediting me or ignoring me. Guess here we're going with gaslighting

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think skitter and unwnd may not like it, but I think the rest of the game would like it if they were together at Wall

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Keep

WHY.
Why .-.
So I don't think Dunn is scum with catboi because then one of Dunn/catboi would have to swap.

Dunn made a surprise move like that last game as town, so it's not entirely out of his town range. I wouldn't say his involvement this game has been necessarily as protown as the last, but as I was on the other team that time, my view of the game is somewhat colored by that. If I had to guess, though, I would say that play is more likely to come from him as town because I don't see what he gains from it as scum.

???

Perspective slip

- Catboi thinks T3 is town (241, among others. Read his ISO), if he knows he himself is town, it is obvious what scum!dunn has to gain. By hammering keep, scum!Dunn guarantees that scum cannot be forced into Wall. However he claims to not know what scum!Dunn has to gain, so

Catboi has a red perspective

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also think reading back his ISO that he has townspewed T3 with 364^

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Tbh I think catboi and unwnd are 2/3 and it doesn't matter what skitter's alignment is, as 2/3 is victory

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, but I'm not getting voted, so, again, the idea that this is a scum gambit falls totally flat. I'm going to vote for who I think is town, hopefully I will be right, I will flip town and leave a legacy read that you should be voted no matter what.

My motivation here as town is pretty simple: I get to be the deciding vote at the keep, I get to control my own destiny, and I don't even have to convince anyone to crossvote for me, which is the most annoying part of being in 3p. If I sense that there's an active campaign to discredit me, why would I not want to be at the place where me being scumread is far less important than my ability to correctly identify who is town?

It doesn't particularly

matter

to me that I get townread here but you're so obviously trying to force-fit the read at this point, which is why I think you're scum.

oh damn keep is hammered... but now that it's hammered with 2 low activity players, if they're both town (T3 and Dunnstral), it will be easy for scum to swap scum!catboi out for a deepwolf if they can get 1-1-1, and get that deepwolf to be TRed. I think now what we want is the consensus scumreads in Wall so that if we get 2/3 there, scum!catboi is forced to stay in keep, and scum has to swap a Wall-Scum for a Gate-Town.

Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

T3 has the most posts in the game. What the

fuck

are you talking about?

Meta. T3 and Dunnstral are low activity players by meta. T3 has a lot of posts in this game probably because I tunneled him, and I post a lot, so he has to post a lot to keep up.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I legitimately cannot tell at this point if kyouko's warped view of the game is complete blinkered town obliviousness or scum that is simply not actually reading the game. I don't feel like skitter's defense of her was partnery but it's hard to wrap my head around.

This is what scum does to me btw, seen it often. They don't engage because it's hard to argue with me for a prolonged period, and eventually they resort to discrediting me or ignoring me. Guess here we're going with gaslighting

1. Don't use 'gaslighting' in a game, thanks.
2. It is an easily verifiable fact that T3 has the most posts in the game and is generally seen by most as townie. I can't engage with someone who tells me the sky is green, because on a basic level they are wrong. Your fretting over me being at the keep is nonsensical because it contravenes basic facts about this game. When those are in dispute, what am I to do? I don't expect any amount of reasoning to actually get through to you at this point even if you are town. Hopefully that isn't relevant, regardless.

1. If you are scum, what you are doing is, by definition, gaslighting. You are saying my view of the game is warped - and if you are scum, it is not warped, but by telling me it is warped, you sow doubt in my own mind about my view of the game. If you are scum, I am being gaslit, and I will use that term to describe it unless dannflor has a problem with it.
2. What does T3 have to do with the post you're replying to?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We have lost the 2/1 at the wall with unwnd I think. We can still 2/1 at Gate/Keep though if we can get consensus town into Wall. I think at this point, the rest of the game should vote on who should hammer gate. Right now I would put skitter at gate with unwnd and I. In fact, skitter, if you are paranoid of me and unwnd, then from town!skitter POV, you coming to Gate achieves 2/1:

town!skitter
scum!unwnd
scum!kyouko

So my vote for who should be hammering Gate is skitter. But hammering Gate now should end the day because the rest are forced to Keep, so nobody should actually hammer yet, because S_S is gone.

pedit: I've been TRing T3 for a while now, just haven't said it yet, that's why my interactions with him slowed down. I also think you spewed he and Dunn are town so Keep is p much autowin regardless of the swap

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: concern trolling

I think the person eho is most town (not you) should get to vote, and if ur scum you wont at all

Why would the person who is most town not simply want themself to get voted? This doesn't make a lick of sense. Of course, if I am scum there is no reason for me to vote,

but you already have my word that I will vote

, and if I go back on it I obviously won't get voted myself, which would guarantee a town win in the event I am scum.


So, again, I very much fail to see what your problem is supposed to be.

This is worthless, because at the time you vote, the Keep game ends. As scum, you can just say you're not sure yet, and the burden still falls on the other town to identify one another. Or, as scum, you can be swapped out so you don't have to follow through. As town, you can be swapped out to make it appear that you're scum that is trying to not follow through on your word here. So we can't put any stock in this.

Lol. Okay. If I'm at the keep and withhold my vote as scum, I still lose though, so why the concern trolling?

pedit: I've been TRing T3 for a while now, just haven't said it yet, that's why my interactions with him slowed down. I also think you spewed he and Dunn are town so Keep is p much autowin regardless of the swap

So if that's the case, why the panicked concern trolling over my move?

First of all, my post that you say is concern trolling is not panicked - I would be interested in hearing why you think it was panicked.

I again do not understand how this ties to my read on T3. If you did want to make a connection, the implication, if there were no swap at keep, would be that I TR T3 based on my post that you identified as "concern trolling." Because in that post, I am saying your word means nothing because you can just wait to vote until town identifies each other, or thinks the other one is scum. In a later post, I clarified that if that happens, you would win, because you responded to my post saying that as scum, you would just lose there.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

SS is basically just PoE. I would probably try to force him into whatever room because on the off chance he's scum it should be apparently obvious when he returns. And I also think that we would take SS more into account when deciding on mech stuff than other players and if he's scum he could possibly force us into a subuptimal position.p

S_S is PoE scum for you? what's your PoE of scum rn?

@Catboi - Why did you say you can't see the motivation for scum!Dunn to hammer Keep?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

SS is basically just PoE. I would probably try to force him into whatever room because on the off chance he's scum it should be apparently obvious when he returns. And I also think that we would take SS more into account when deciding on mech stuff than other players and if he's scum he could possibly force us into a subuptimal position.p

S_S is PoE scum for you? what's your PoE of scum rn?

@Catboi - Why did you say you can't see the motivation for scum!Dunn to hammer Keep?

Not really PoE scum, he just hasn't done anything towny.

Who else hasn't done anything towny?

@Catboi - Why did you say you can't see the motivation for scum!Dunn to hammer Keep?

Because I'm not sure what his angle would be there. Does he expect to be the one who gets voted after lowposting and making an unexpected hammer on the keep? It seems doubtful, even in a world where I'm correctly townreading T3 and he gets taken out of the Keep. Of course, saying I can't see any scum motivation there is probably an overreach - there are scenarios where I can see a tactical benefit to scum wanting to have 1 member at the keep. But I'm sure he'll have an explanation that we won't hear until after the locations are finalized.

SS is basically just PoE. I would probably try to force him into whatever room because on the off chance he's scum it should be apparently obvious when he returns. And I also think that we would take SS more into account when deciding on mech stuff than other players and if he's scum he could possibly force us into a subuptimal position.p

S_S is PoE scum for you? what's your PoE of scum rn?

@Catboi - Why did you say you can't see the motivation for scum!Dunn to hammer Keep?

Not really PoE scum, he just hasn't done anything towny.

I mean, he hasn't done anything at all, he's been V/LA since the game started. I personally feel that enough people have been towny in some way that I feel there is a decent chance he is scum, though.

I think I have an idea of why he hammered it but I also think he wont say until toMorrow and that's probably for the best if hes town. I do think that unwnd's jump to gate is scummy - it looks reactionary to Dunn hammering Keep. It's probably done as WIFOM on the current composition of Keep. If unwnd flips scum, I would be wondering if the Gate jump was scum afraid of getting 0-0-3 by an all town keep, or was it meant to make us think that?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My reads are:
kyo
Peng/skitter
SS
unwnd
implosion
Dunn/catboi

There are scumreads being thrown at skitter and I'm not sure why.

I kinda feel she's too entangled in unwnd and catboi. I dont think it's likely that they are all 3 scum here, but i feel like if I'm wrong about one or both of unwnd and catboi that she makes sense. I'll probably have to reread today's flurry of posts a few times to digest it all, and might feel different after. I just hesitate to put these 3 in different areas, but deep down I think it's hard for all 3 of them to be scum so maybe Wall is good for skitter and the 3rd scum is like, S_S or implosion maybe. Feel like it's gonna be hard to get an 0-2-1 split.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Pwng and SS go to the gate?

I believe the mod missed that unwnd already went to gate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Holding you to not hammer then, because I agree I want more people to chime in

VOTE: Gate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thought: if it winds up that the current keep turns out to be T3/catboi town and Dunnstral scum, it's probably a good idea to rethink reads more broadly because it's possible Dunn went there because he considered the keep a losing ploy based on what catboi had been saying and figured that his best bet was to tank himself and win both other areas (which would imply he thinks the other two scum can win their areas)

Yes agreed, but also scum!Dunn points to scum!unwnd based on the timing of movements I think. I dont think scum!Dunn wants to end up in keep, so his team wants 1-1-1 to swap him out of keep for someone like scum!penguin who is currently TRed and looks likely to be placed away from unwnd if consensus is followed.

Independently of Dunn's hammer and alignment though, I think moving to Gate by unwnd is scummy given that a location had been hammered

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well, agreed that scum!Dunn means a broader rethinking of reads. I dont think scum intentionally tank any locations in this setup

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Coming gate now hammers the setup phase because there is only one area left- we dont want that before S_S is back

[ssbm_Kyouko]

PP/S_S/Skitter at Wall leaves no good place for scum!catboi to be swapped. PP, Skitter, Implosion and I all SR him, so having 2 of each of us at the other 2 stations makes it dangerous to swap him. Makes it hard for scum!catboi to get get out of having to keep his hammer promise at Keep. If Catboi is town though I can see scum!Dunn and scum!unwnd which means to swap town!catboi out they have to leave scum!dunn in Keep.

In this case of town!Catboi I'm not really worried about implosion being scum as one of he or unwnd has to be swapped, and I think making scum make a swap that involves Gate is ideal.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why would you expect any rational scum play to revolve around swapping me? It gets incredibly annoying having to fend off these hypotheticals that are supposed to inform your decision-making when they rest on these assumptions that make no sense. What does scum!cat gain from swapping to the gate or the wall? The fearmongering is nonsensical at this point.

Scum!cat gets out of their obligation to be the hammer vote at Keep by swapping out of Keep, to the Gate or Wall. Literally the answer to your question is posted in the post you are referring to, so what is the point of asking me these questions? <-Not asking rhetorically.

Makes it hard for scum!catboi to get get out of having to keep his hammer promise at Keep.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why would you expect any rational scum play to revolve around swapping me? It gets incredibly annoying having to fend off these hypotheticals that are supposed to inform your decision-making when they rest on these assumptions that make no sense. What does scum!cat gain from swapping to the gate or the wall? The fearmongering is nonsensical at this point.

Scum!cat gets out of their obligation to be the hammer vote at Keep by swapping out of Keep, to the Gate or Wall. Literally the answer to your question is posted in the post you are referring to, so what is the point of asking me these questions? <-Not asking rhetorically.

Makes it hard for scum!catboi to get get out of having to keep his hammer promise at Keep.

What good do you expect that to

do

for me, though? In such a scenario, I remain a scumread at a location where people can vote me directly, meanwhile my teammate gets stuck at the keep with stronger townreads where they are less likely to win. It feels like you're just narrative-building with absolutely no sense of how my actions are supposed to play toward the scum win condition at all.

I dont expect it to do you any good, again, if you had paid attention to 504, you would have seen the whole idea of that post is to pitch a setup that is good for town if you are scum. So if you are scum, there is not a good swap for you in this scenario.

However, if we go with a different setup, I think there are ways for you to.escape to.wall and have a decent shot at winning for scum there. I want to push a situation where scum swaps someone in/out of Gate, so I dont like the idea of making it possible for my top scumreads to have the option switching a Keep and Wall player.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So did you not understand from 504 that I already answered both of your questions in that post?

"What does scum!cat gain from swapping"
And
"What good do you expect that to do for me"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think unwnd is scum so implosion should go to the gate.

Same but also you could just be echoing me to reinforce my coming-around TR on you

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No, you literally have not established how I advance the scum win condition at all in your hypothetical. Your theory is that my sneaky, nefarious plan is to make a snap move to the keep that earns the ire of half the game, and get out of a promise by swapping myself out of the keep. You are painting a narrative that begins with the presumption I am scum, and so anything that happens with me must be for some nefarious purpose. The goal, for scum, is to win locations. How is the swap supposed to benefit that? Answer that rather than obfuscating and claiming you already answered.

Alright well I'm definitely not obfuscating as I've been quoting some of my already-provided answers. scum!you that swaps out of Keep is probably swapping out for a low-confidence town like Skitter or Implosion, and your teammate in this situation is either Dunn or T3. If you get to swap with Skitter or Implosion that are at Wall, I think you have a decent shot at that minigame against some other more nullish players like PP and S_S.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the current makeup of the wagons should indicate that scum has already chosen a spot? See there's 4 left for the choosing and well, scum can lose if they're all forced into one. I don't know if this has happened though, because if I'm scum and I see only one spot is left? I take that last spot just so I don't lose.

You're not wrong, scum has already chosen spots. You wanna tell us where?

I think that all scum exept mayhr implosion are already at a location tbh

I dont know if it really matters if i go to gate or wall, but if someone still has a strong opinion abt it still plz say so cuz otherwise i will hammer gate soon

I want Implosion at Gate - but I think he thinks I'm still SRing him. I think PP should go Wall now as well with S_S. Then I think you and Implosion should agree on who takes Gate and who takes Wall, though up to me I take Implosion at Gate.

I feel like I should be fine to VOTE: Wall at least. I would imagine I'm the least Gate-fit person of everyone left.

Yeah this seemed the foregone conclusion anyways

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Reminder, btw, that 2-1 scum has 6 choices on swaps, and 1-1-1 scum have... a lot more, so we want 2-1. At this point we want someone who could be partnered with me or unwnd in Gate with us. I'll let rest yall decide, I was thinking implosion before thinking about the partner thing, and I think from outside perspective skitter can look like my partner, and she's possibly an unwnd partner, so maybe I do like skitter better for gate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Whatever. I think you're playing tactically and don't actually want to go to the gate, have never wanted to go to the gate, and were hoping someone else would take the gate before you so you would have an excuse. As that hasn't happened, you're entering into this incredibly performative exchange where you balk at the idea because this somehow our scum plot (of course, trying to articulate what that could actually be wouldn't be possible, because nothing makes sense, you fall back on vague notions of it being "suspicious")

NEVER MIND the fact that unwnd was open about wanting to go to the gate with you from the moment he jumped there, I've been largely okay with it for most of this time, SUDDENLY NOW it's a big deal???, Yeah, not buying it! ✾(〜 ☌ω☌)〜✾

Let's say skitter is scum - what do you think her strategy is in trying to get on wall? Who do you think she wants on Gate?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

NEVER MIND the fact that unwnd was open about wanting to go to the gate with you from the moment he jumped there, I've been largely okay with it for most of this time, SUDDENLY NOW it's a big deal???, Yeah, not buying it! ✾(〜 ☌ω☌)〜✾

I mean i've been wanting to go there for quite a while now, but ok

@ssbm u ok to end the phase?

Not quite, but soon, curious about catboi

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not sure what you’re hoping to gain further in this phase.

I want to know what catboi thinks scum!skitter has to gain by posturing to hammer gate but not actually hammering it.

If it's something boring like Kyouko/skitter/unwnd is the scumteam then it doesnt really matter, but I would expect it to have something to do with hypothetical switches, and knowing what he's thinking helps sort him.

I also want to make sure there is a real thought process there because as skitter said, it looks like goading. Scum!catboi might be satisfied with events now that S_S has landed at Wall. If that's the case he may be ready to end now and be trying to bait a hammer out. So I need to hear real reasoning behind catboi's accusation, otherwise it is just scum baiting a hammer to this phase

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If you hammer now we dont get the chance to hear what catboi was thinking

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Victory, I've been ICed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I will think about swaps in the morning

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod, loving the flavor btw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Honestly i'm feeling p good abt my reads. I think uwnd was planning on 1v1ing me if i had gone to gate yesterday, which would imply the swap was gonna be betwewn wall and keep

That probably says something abt the town-scum distribution at wall-keep at the time but i havent figured that out yet

It means there were 2 or 0 scum at Keep if this pov is town and the assumption that scum!unwnd was going to 1v1 you are correct.

Mm.

I felt like the weird way unwnd was acting toward skitter made them somewhat more likely to be partners.

Which makes this swap very interesting.

If they are partners, Dunn is likely scum for hammering Keep as it guarantees they can't be sequestered at Wall with him by POE.

Sorry to clarify the sentence abt unwnd: i'm trying to sort out if the swap lets me read anything into his alignment from my pov and i dont think (?) I can

I wasnt trying to say i think he's town

That's correct, I looked at this for a while, the only information we could have gained comes from if scum swaps the IC into gate from another location, then we know part of the pre-swap distribution of scum at the swapped from location.

I'm going to not have time to properly reread until the morning, but in particular I want skitter/implo to reread and solve in the other locations now that they have a confirmed scum from their POV.

Everyone else can do this too by making parallel solves: a scum!skitter and a scum!implo solve. I think that would be helpful

I think Keep should flip first because I think catboi's alignment is high info.

I think I want Wall to flip first as they're the most high risk and they were all "pushed" into Wall, meaning we can discern nothing about their alignments by knowing the alignment of Dunnstral who hammered the first location. I would hate to see the game come down to Wall. Also, I think unwnd is more high-info than catboi, and that of the scumreads that could do the most damage to town if they are town, unwnd ranks the highest. If he's actually town here I think he's an easy mislim for Wall so Wall carries a high risk and should be first.

I think what I want from skitter and implosion are two sets of solves: one that assumes unwnd is scum, and one that assumes he is town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It always comes down to the wall

Meaning?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Here are the 3 possible scum pairings (ignoring Keep) depending on the pre-swap scum distribution at G-K-W.

Town!skitter:
2-1-0: [unwnd, implosion]
1-1-1: [penguin/s_s, implosion]

Town!implosion:
2-1-0: [skitter, unwnd]

Town!implosion knows we were 2-1-0 before the swap so we can eliminate the 1-1-1 in his section.

Town!unwnd can look at the above poe and know that he cannot scum with skitter, which leaves no possibilities for town!implosion and guarantees scum!implosion on a town!unwnd flip.

If we kill unwnd at Wall:
town!unwnd: we lose wall but auto-win Gate because he's town and we know his town POV locks implosion in as scum, resulting in 1-1 ending at Keep.

Scum!unwnd: we win Wall and dont know who is scum at Gate. Town is up 1-0 and we solve from there.

Any objections? Any holes in this logic?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also it is proven that unwnd and skitter are not SvS, so we know at least one side of their interactions around catboi are real

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Tbh I'm leaning towards skitter being scum which means unwnd is town, but if I'm wrong we're down 0-1, and we have a guaranteed outcome of 1-0 or 1-1 as it is, so I'll take the guaranteed outcome over my read 10/10 times.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

What I don't get is why I wasn't swapped out of Keep. Because at this point I'm likely being voted in -> scum lose Keep so obviously scum are going to swap me out. If the scum are 1-1-1 then they effectively have to swap me out.

That makes me think scum were forced to do a Gate/Wall swap.

I think this stands from town!T3 POV, but it's wifom:

scum!you thinks catboi will be forced to wield the hammer and that he is likely to choose you over town!dunn who recklessly hammered Keep. So scum!you doesnt swap out of Keep.

Dunn also said he'd vote for catboi so idk if you're as sure a shot as you think

[ssbm_Kyouko]

it is proven that unwnd and skitter are not SvS

How so?

Oh nm you right. If it's TvT though we can go into 1-1 at Keep and examine the interaction to see who is fanning the flames

Pedit: just my gut feeling right now, I wouldn't have even posted that if I wasn't confirmed and didnt have a mechanical way to gain advantage or parity already

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Neither of you will convince me to vote the other before Wall flips, so it would behoove the Town at Keep to wait for the wall flip for the best chances at victory. And any scum at Keep wont vote early either because they would have to hammer a townie.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So what's important now I think is for Wall to lay out their reads on the Keep. Also skitter if you're town, you should invite so that implosion cannot self-hammer and cut your time to post reads short, because if unwnd is scum he will certainly do that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also i think from your pov me/unwnd are possible still?

If unwnd is scum it was 1-1-1 yesterday, and swapping me for him doesnt change that distribution in that universe

Yes I realized that when S_S questioned it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If I had to explain my gut read:

I think scum generally tries to use me for TvT when I'm obvtowning, so that was part of mystrategy in storming the Gate this game, to bait scum into ICing me. If I were scum!you I would put myself into Gate with Implosion so that Kyouko would hammer Implosion, because I think my posting D1 indicates I would go that direction.

--

I also think if Skitter went to Gate that unwnd and implosion would have been swapped and we would have the same configuration, so I think that implosion and skitter's hemming and hawing over the Gate is NAI for both players.

This also explains why unwnd went to Gate after Wall was full - it puts Implosion and Skitter as likely to go to different locations, so that regardless of the situation, scum!unwnd gets removed from Gate and IC!Kyouko picks between skitter and implosion.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think scum generally tries to use me for TvT when I'm obvtowning, so that was part of mystrategy in storming the Gate this game, to bait scum into ICing me. If I were scum!you I would put myself into Gate with Implosion so that Kyouko would hammer Implosion, because I think my posting D1 indicates I would go that direction.

Editing for clarity:

If I were scum!skitter:

I would try to end up in gate with IC!Kyouko and town!implosion.

Because I (Now I'm speaking from my POV again, not scum!skitter's) think that my own posting would be interpreted by scum as leaning towards hammering Implosion over Skitter if forced to choose.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I did that then got frustrated reading Kyouko's posts so I'm doing it a bit out of spite

Town should not be frustrated that their death is guaranteed to go 1 for 1 with scum. If you're town you should be figuring out the alignments at keep and posting your thoughts in preparation for the wall lim. You should not be voting anyone right now if town, and if scum you should probably be preparing to self-hammer once PP or S_S vote you.

Sorry if you're town but your death is objectively pro-town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@S_S and PP:

Even if you're convinced the other one of you is scum, if you end up trying to vote that person and are wrong we could lose the whole game at Gate. If you just kill unwnd after doing your best to solve Keep we have a good shot at this.

Not saying either of you should be voting but I'm concerned with the conclusion S_S's question leads towards

[ssbm_Kyouko]

vc

Yeah I mean this kinda feels like a forced switch into an all-town wall but why would implosion deliberately cripple his team like that?

Pedit: big wall I did not read yet

I've no idea, i have no good explanation for the swap/implosion's hammer, especially in an unwnd scum world

If unwnd is scum, scum!implosion could be trying to make you look bad by hammering gate before you when catboi seemed to be goading you and you seemed to be dodging hammering. Once it looked like you were dodging, you still had the chance to hammer and redeem yourself. I was also advocating for implosion to hammer gate, so by hammering here it appeals to me. Convenient for scum!implosion to 1v1 you here too, as it looks like he just dunked on you before my.eyes and I am the decider here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I can see both of you as having scum motivation rn

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Again, not trying to be that guy but

Have you ever considered that scum was OK clearing you because your reads fucking suck and you serve no threat?

Have you considered that's all part of my plan? I know I have shaky reads, and that I flip-flop a lot, but I often get there in the end, because my strengths are in looking at a situation from every angle and figuring out what aligns. I thought I would have a good chance at getting ICed and being the objective of the scum team's swap, and it worked out perfectly for me. And now town is either up 1-0 or guaranteed 1-1 with finals in the Keep, so I'm happy with how I'm playing, thanks.

I'm not sure he's expecting to, like, win this honestly

You're right but you have painted me in the wrong mindset

I'm town and it's essential you flip wall first so Kyouko can be humbled

You being town does not humble me. You must die regardless of your alignment, for the sake of the town. I'm pretty sure you're just scum here though and are feeling a bit sour I caught you out of RVS. We'll see though.

ssbm, I don't understand your plan with limming unwnd; what do you do next based on a town flip vs a scum flip? I thought you determined that wasn't actually a good idea?

No, I did not determine it wasn't a good idea. Scum unwnd can be partnered with either of you, but if unwnd is town, you are mechanically proven to be scum, and I will hammer you after skitter has had time to contemplate the keep. The good news if you are town is you know unwnd will flip scum and you wont be turbo hammered. The proof:

Here are the 3 possible scum pairings (ignoring Keep) depending on the pre-swap scum distribution at G-K-W.

Town!skitter:
2-1-0: [unwnd, implosion]
1-1-1: [penguin/s_s, implosion]

Town!implosion:
2-1-0: [skitter, unwnd]

Town!implosion knows we were 2-1-0 before the swap so we can eliminate the 1-1-1 in his section.

Town!unwnd can look at the above poe and know that he cannot scum with skitter, which leaves no possibilities for town!implosion and guarantees scum!implosion on a town!unwnd flip.

If we kill unwnd at Wall:
town!unwnd: we lose wall but auto-win Gate because he's town and we know his town POV locks implosion in as scum, resulting in 1-1 ending at Keep.

Scum!unwnd: we win Wall and dont know who is scum at Gate. Town is up 1-0 and we solve from there.

Any objections? Any holes in this logic?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait a minute, I think I might have made a mistake in 710

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scum are not even incentivized to have bad reads. In general they are incentivized to bus, I think.

Can you explain this? Why are they incentivized to bus?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think it's Skitter/T3/S_S

I agree I think. How does.everyone else that isn't one of these 3 feel about this solve?

I think we make T3 hammer one of catboi or Dunnstral. Or if catboi and Dunnstral mutually TR each other I'll literally flip a coin and say which one should be hammered as town, as we know I'm town and have no incentive to manipulate it.

Knowing dunnstral's alignment gives insight into his D1 Keep Hammer. I think this is he most useful info we can get from any flips, so it should come first. I'm coming around on unwnd, and knowing catboi is town will solidify that. Knowing catboi is scum wont erase that turnaround or anything, I'll just have to ignore any of catboi's D2 reads.

I think this is the best policy btw, just ignore anything dead scum said and base reads on your own thoughts and those of flipped town. Maybe this is what S<S wa s getting at regarding the bussing. To counteract that we just ignore scum's reads

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Uh if you're scum this is your optimal outcome and town-you aparently wanted keep to 'control your own destiny by being kingmaker'

I'm just gonna say when i said this exact outcome would happen (you hemminf and hawing and letting other people vote) you derided the notion thay you would do such a thing because you wanted to vote

So ya
It looks like you're wiggling iut of it to me

Uh oh

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Never mind. Thought I caught something but it doesnt check out. You've used the phrase before, plus I'm ICed so town!you is still motivated to mimic me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

He offered it 2 days ago irl so i'm kinda confused ehy you're jumping on this *now* and acting like this is an importang thing to resolve when uou didng seem to care abt it when he actually did

And i think that if you actually wanted fo go to keep to vote yourself you would be more focused on making that happen

When you say "to vote yourself" do you mean to vot for himself or for him to cast a vote.for.someone else?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

hi i accidentally just played a board game for 4 hours and need to go to sleep now >.>

i caught up and now actually think dunn might be the best vote in keep??? or at least i think i would rather catboi vote dunn than dunn vote catboi if they're not voting T3. but i am coming around on t3-scum as a possibility

Actually, Penguin, Dunn, Catboi: how would you guys feel about me hammering skitter at gate as the first play? I think I'm decided.

Looking for any objections to the lim and objections to the order in which we resolve locations

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Very nervous, but only because I haven't actually reread skitter. Her posts certainly haven't made me think town. But that last post from implo didn't really inspire confidence in me either. What's got you so decided?

Skitter feels like she's trying to manipulate me rather than persuade me. Implosion feels like he's putting.effort into solving the other areas, skitter not as much.

implosion flipped on his read of me after Dunn and catboi both expressed a scumread of me but skitter held strong in her read which makes me think town?

skitter holding on to her read of you after toDay's play makes me think agenda, not town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Something has to give. I have to be off somewhere, scum never perfectly align.

I think it's easy for them to align on T3 if even a couple of town buy that he's town. Much easier to fake being town at keep than mislim town at Gate or Wall. And if theres going to be a scum that hard pushes their buddy as town at the keep, it makes sense for that scum to be skitter at the Gate, because Gate is a 50-50 for town, so skitter takes one for the team if she pushes T3 as town, because when T3 flips scum, I hammer skitter and we go 1-1, and then we're left with just Wall. And at wall, unwnd was moved TO wall where he is pretty widely SRed. I think scum's plan with S_S at wall was to put him with obvtown Peng and concensus-scum unwnd. Makes it easy for S_S to justify his vote, he doesnt have to "solve" anything there because it's concensus.

I think the world of Skitter, T3, S_S, is real. I need a few hours though before we make moves

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That’s my gut read, but I still don’t understand the hesitation to go to gate on skitteR’s part just to end up with scumSS with me.

Maybe if skitter goes somewhere and is then switched it looks intentional, and scum wanted it to look like skitter was out of control of the situation.

I said a few hours because I was waiting on an ongoing game to end, but it just ended.

scum!S_S just tried the same thing in that game. Scum in final 3 and his only reason for.voting me was the other one in final.3 had been confirmed.town by an inno crumb of a dead cop. He wouldn't engage with me really and was banking on me being loud enough to confuse the conftown into voting me for having wild theories. He coasted through the whole game and I think that's his idea with this game too.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Fair.

In terms of my general meta, scum!me busses early on, townreads town, and goes for weird and flashy plays.

So scum!you goes to the gate, townreads town, and tries to get townread by other town in the other areas...

I didnt see any major objections to this, aside from catboi's paranoia. Skitter, if you're town, sorry. Buddy less hard next time.

VOTE: skitter

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 would you vote catboi?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

Congrats. You are scum who has pulled reads out of your ass.

I'm not, but good try!

Yeah I'm willing to divulge a bit. I'm sure scum is already aware of it, but there's a mechanic that allows them to switch people. This works in town's favor as well however given that two scum cannot be in the same place. Therefore, my intent in the last game was to not make any sudden movements. I didn't want to confirm any information basically. The town in that game tried to use I believe Keep(?) to box in scumreads or something to that effect. We ended up exactly 1-1-1 in terms of wagon makeup where Ydrasse followed my lead, and then catboi just happened to find himself elsewhere too. I think it's a dangerous game (for scum) if they just let townies start plotting because then the onus is put onto them, and it becomes a matter of reacting less to what town does and more about complying and hoping that their plans are misguided.

This is roughly what I figured; notably a single person doing an early jump has no impact on this plan because it doesn't matter

that

much which of the three locations we use for which purpose if we do want to go this route.

Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

I orginally thought this was scummy, but then I thought it was towny, now I realize this is NAI

This post is pretty "hello world, I have an internal thought process! Guess I can't be scum!"

hmm hot take T3-implosion is theatre

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think unwnd and S_S should unvote before peng comes online. Just. Because he didnt hammer earlier doesn't mean he wont hammer now that scum is up 1-0. However the fact neither of you unvoted already makes he think peng probably is just town because I find it hard to imagine that 2 townies both didnt have this very same thought.

Pedit: You know if you're town you shouldn't double down on the exact same strat you just used against me and Marci as scum in final 3 S_S

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If T3 is scum then that would fit with scum playing overly fancy. Implosion intentionally jumping into a 2-0-1 only to switch unwnd out is pretty weird, but I guess it was just banking on implosion flipping first, which was a pretty reasonable thing to bank on.

What I gather from this is you think that if unwnd flipped first it would point to scum!implosion? How is that?

Regarding unvoting, it's up to you/unwnd. Imo you not unvoting means you've locked in PP if you're town, or you're just scum. So NAI, but if you trust your read don't unvote, give PP a chance to reappear and reconfirm himself as town.

unwnd is quite town for page 2. catboi to a lesser extent.

I think there's some amount of advantage we could eke out by controlling where people go but I think we also can get a fair amount of useful info just from where people decide to go on their own. unwnd, since you were specifically worried as scum about town's options to synchronize, I'm curious what exactly you didn't want town to have the option to do.

Congrats. You are scum who has pulled reads out of your ass.

I'm not, but good try!

Yeah I'm willing to divulge a bit. I'm sure scum is already aware of it, but there's a mechanic that allows them to switch people. This works in town's favor as well however given that two scum cannot be in the same place. Therefore, my intent in the last game was to not make any sudden movements. I didn't want to confirm any information basically. The town in that game tried to use I believe Keep(?) to box in scumreads or something to that effect. We ended up exactly 1-1-1 in terms of wagon makeup where Ydrasse followed my lead, and then catboi just happened to find himself elsewhere too. I think it's a dangerous game (for scum) if they just let townies start plotting because then the onus is put onto them, and it becomes a matter of reacting less to what town does and more about complying and hoping that their plans are misguided.

This is roughly what I figured; notably a single person doing an early jump has no impact on this plan because it doesn't matter

that

much which of the three locations we use for which purpose if we do want to go this route.

Sup nerds VOTE: Gate
Pile onto gate now

I orginally thought this was scummy, but then I thought it was towny, now I realize this is NAI

This post is pretty "hello world, I have an internal thought process! Guess I can't be scum!"

hmm hot take T3-implosion is theatre

implosion scumread me, the townread me, then when the consensus was that I was a scumlean implosion also did an unexplained flip on me.

^I dont see how that is indicative of your alignment. I think the theatrical interactions between you on the first couple of pages are telling though. If you're not going to vote catboi I think it's fine for Dunn to vote catboi now.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 would you vote catboi?

Leaning towards catboi.

Oh I missed this post. I think consensus from you and dunn is catboi so either one of you could be scum bluffing, but both of you can't, so i think town!catboi is highly likely

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Meaning skitter/catboi was town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think unwnd and S_S should unvote before peng comes online. Just. Because he didnt hammer earlier doesn't mean he wont hammer now that scum is up 1-0. However the fact neither of you unvoted already makes he think peng probably is just town because I find it hard to imagine that 2 townies both didnt have this very same thought.

Pedit: You know if you're town you shouldn't double down on the exact same strat you just used against me and Marci as scum in final 3 S_S

Are you seriously still thinking I can be scum?

Obviously we know you're town now, but think about it.

Gate and Keep were probably the easier places for town to win. As scum at wall, if you got the chance to confirm yourself early by not hammering, and the town at Wall kept their crossvotes going, you could slow play Wall to be the second scum minigame, because if you quickhammers at wall, you do go up a point, but you also reveal that you were scum, and it could trigger reevaluations in Gate and Keep that lead to a 2-1 town victory.

This doesnt matter on a lot of levels though - you've reconfirmed, I'm conftown and stumped, etc. Just wanting to point out that it was a valid strategy for scum to try.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My typical expectation for scum is that they WIFOM their reads and try to distance with the expectation they'll flip and people will do the opposite of what they say, but I don't know how much to weigh that vs implo trying to put out a perspective he thought was coherent.

My immediate GTH still says unwnd town but i feel less confident about that than I did 24 hours ago.

I think for this reason we ignore flipped scum's recommendations on who is town/scum at Wall/Keep and focus on the tone of their interactions instead. What looks SvS, what looks TvS, where are they fanning the flames of TvT, etc.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

fwiw scum!S_S just abused me for TvT in our last game together and he would be likely to target me as IC in this one on the expectation I wouldn't be very helpful, because he's seen that my theories get wild. But I did call scum theatre on T3/Implosion (:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I should probably ISO myself. Sometimes I forget about my D1 shit (T3, Implosion) and if I would have just ISOed myself, past me could have reminded me what I was thinking

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hot take: I was ICed because my read of catboi, unwnd, skitter was 0 for 3. Peng you wanna hammer S_S now or you got any trepidation you want to discuss?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't think I did, I just felt like skitter was being overly buddying towards me.

Mostly, yes, but I also think your early post saying you dont want to talk mechanics due to death of the designer was scummy.

First of all it was D1 and nobody is able to kill you for any of your theories on the setup. As the designer you may have had valuable info for town to use if you rolled town. Additionally, if you are worried about being SRed, you have an easy out by coming to Keep, where you can be the hammerer of town and not worry about any preconceived scumreads that stemmed from your setup discussion.

Reads like a reason not to contribute, which shouldn't be something town is concerned about in this setup.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Fwiw ssbm, I have seen so many people play one game with me and think they know me. I would imagine that you think I'm scum mostly from comparison to Owner's Market? Because if so, probably some of the things you see are just my playstyle, and not alignment-related.

Also it may take a few mislims for me to learn, but if you choose to play that way, you're probably used to it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I wouldn't say it was ego more like I decided to follow the rabble going on at the time

I think we're in a good position though, now I just have to convince Penguin

I was just rereading a bit and unwnds ISO seems town to me, in addition to the similarities I'm seeing between S_S here and scum!S_S in owner's market.

Regarding unwnd - I dont think there's an agenda beyond wanting to.prove me wrong in their posting, and I dont think scum ICed me because they wanted me to be proven wrong. They ICed me so I would be listened to. Besides that, unwnd has clear progressions on T3, me, catboi, skitter, and Dunnstral in his ISO. You can tell his reads are genuine imo.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Once catboi joined T3 at Keep the passivity became acceptable to scum, so there's no longer inherent scum motivation in unwnd's move to Gate after Dunn hammered Keep. We know that's not in response to an all-town Keep, but I guess we knew that earlier today as well.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Pretty sure every point in that case makes sense for town!unwnd except for the "should be an easy vote for T3 from unwnd POV", I'm not sure how this tracks. Could you explain that S_S? I feel like from unwnds iso he would lean Catboi if he/Catboi/T3 were at keep

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If you want me to respond to that penguin I will

You should be responding regardless, this reads like being worried you'll trigger Penguin if you respond.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So you're fine with kyouko hammering just like that?

So you're fine with kyouko hammering just like that?

Never mind, I misinterpreted what you mean by info to mean like, explaining what we think is a good idea setup-wise. I don't think there's much reason to make moves early but again I don't think it's meaningfully bad because we get to analyze it. Like in principle your early jump last game should have been interpretable as evidence that you were scum. So it could be meaningfully scummy but I don't feel strongly about kyouko's jump so far.

Theres no follow up from unwnd

Why are none of the areas called the thunderdome? Whoever designed this setup is a piece of work.

Referring to S_S

Guess what happens if scum!me swaps? Gate flips first, and I get confirmed to be scum in another running minigame if I swapped out of gate with flipped scum, which I would have to if you and implosion are both town.

Don't think this is how the setup works.

At this point I actually feel townish on both T3 and ssbm, moreso on T3.

I think catboi could be scum.

This is just to illustrate that early on implosion's strategy is to bundle T3 with me. Plan is to IC me from early on most likely, and this associates T3 with conftown, which is good for scum!T3 in Keep. I think T3's part in the strat is to bus his partners to look more town on their scumflip.

"cluster obvtown at the keep to make the keep easy" is kind of not the best strategy wise because the keep is already the easiest location for us to win. I guess I can see why to put two there but like, fundamentally using the "resource" of consensus townreads to win the keep seems like an inefficient usage.

I still think ssbm and T3 are acting town. It's not really worth putting in effort to convince someone I think is town that I am town until phase 2 if we're in the same location after the swap.

ssbm brings up interesting points on unwnd re: his early posting and this game vs the previous (though I don't buy that so much because unwnd basically lampshaded it by describing how he'd acted in the last game) and I'd like to see him reply to them.

Bundles me and T3 again, and I think the last bit is the way scum invites their partners to contribute to elevate their and their partner's status

I think right now my vague scumpool is catboi, unwnd, Dunn and S_S and my hope would be 2/3 scum in that pool (which I have even odds of getting just by luck I suppose)

Unwnd never responds to this. He hasn't interacted with implosion since 49.

I just ask bc the natural impetus should be for scum to avoid going to the same place since the ideal for them is 1-1-1, so I don't see the motivation for unwnd jumping into gate unless it's something weird like that. though it could make sense since we were saying we want to group scum at wall

WIFOM that points to town!unwnd if implosion flips, and to town!implosion if unwnd flips red. Works both ways if they're partnered.

This is the exact kind of wall scumwnd makes.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Is this what we expect unwnd to say to a townie that is accusing him of being scum? We've seen how he treated me pre- and post- IC.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I can see T3 bussing both his partners for the towncred at Gate. That's exactly the kind of play he makes as scum. As traitor to my scumteam, he faked a guilty on my partner and was pretending to be a combined detective Neighborizer when he was really a combined rolecop Neighborizer

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also just feel like unwnd got quiet after parking his vote on S_S.

I'm here to play devil's advocate though, I like to put the possibilities out there and weigh them

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe catboi and Dunnstral could weigh in

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Lapwolf*
(:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Peng you have a tough choice ):

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Damn S_S you had me going there for a minute at the end

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yeah it really got tense, I liked D1 better than D2 lmao. I do like this setup though since I could be loud D1 and not have to worry about getting killed or limmed for it :^)