Election! | GAME OVER

[Bingle]

Wouldn't no result have forced us to kill you? Like, mechabically speaking.

It would have been scum indicative, but not necessarily a slam dunk scum case. It's kind of like the alisae thing, where there is an explanation for why it could be the case, but we would have had to make the decision of whether that 20% chance was reasonable doubt. I think anything higher than 90% funding is reasonable to rely on and anything over 60% is potentially viable, but I'm also willing to take risks like that and roll the dice. It's why I enjoy craps as much as I do. I know, on an intellectual level, that what I'm doing is just spending money to have a good time, but I still play the riskier bets on occasion because I like the gamble.

[Bingle]

As my pappy always used to say: "Who needs a house when you have crabs!"

[Bingle]

on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.

here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.

I see this and am acknowledging it, as that should count as game advancement so I don’t get prodded.

I spent the day celebrating the news that my cousin is officially in remission from what we expected to be terminal cancer and didn’t get to this. Sorry.

[Bingle]

I think it would be a decent idea for scum Treasurer to just fund no one and get voted out the next day

It wouldn't, actually. First of all, trading a scum player for a cop shot is effectively forcing the cop shot to be reliable. Town wins if scum makes those trades.

Second, the treasurer wouldn't live through the end of the day. If they don't fund, we get the info they won't fund and then immediately lim them. I'm not sure how you wouldn't know how that works, weren't you on the D1 council?

[Bingle]

I think Alisae lying is clearly the most likely explanation, it seems that opinion is not widely shared, how do I go about convincing people it's the most likely explanation? I could do the math, ask people to assign probabilities to P(scum have a role blocker), P(scum role blocker is active on N3) - (does it need funding? is it X-shot? would they have used it on N1 or N2?), and P(scum correctly guessed Alisae was doc), and then do the actual math to show the compounding unlikelihood once you take all those things together.

I mean... people tend to find math arguments unapproachable unless you can explicitly relate them to something, but your calculus isn't right here, which is problematic to me.

The assumptions that go into aliscum are: Ali rolled scum(3/9), Ali decided to risk being risk eir slot on a gambit to kill the cop (not unreasonable as a scum choice) (P(A)), Ali decided to fakeclaim a doc shot instead of claiming that e WIFOM'd the third role at [person] as a gambit to try to catch scum off guard(P(B)).

I don't think the assumption that as scum Ali would trade emself for a pseudoconf slot with a cop shot is an unreasonable one if Skrew is town, but it's also not a given. If anything I think it's less of a given than a scumteam deciding that it's a good idea to try to fake a guilty result.

Which brings us back to: How likely is it that scum had a way of messing with the doc going through.

Ways I can think of a scumteam being able to kill through a doc:

Roleblock the Doc
Strongman
Interfere with Funding

Ali's point about FTC is 100% a relevant argument because it's functionally an argument that something along those lines exists. The argument that this isn't follow the cop because scum can mess with the cop through funding is silly because even in the case of town ONLY being able to fund the cop, scum is restricted to playing whack-a-mole with the cops/results. It's kind of the whole point of our "elect a scummy cop" strategy. If scum doesn't play ball and doesn't have a way to interfere, then the game is hugely broken for town due to what is essentially ftc. If scum does play ball, we're in functional nightless, where EV says that the perfect balance is 12:4 but observational balance is closer to 8:4. It is impossible for town to have run out of funds funding only the cop prior to today. Literally. The minimum possible roll for funding each day is explicitly 10*n where n is the number of players. The odds of us not having enough to both cop and track on D1 was less than 1 in 10 billion. Technically, it could happen.

We know that we have more potential power than just a cop per night. So we have more power than a setup which is explicitly townsided, which was the entire point of my NA plan. We know scum has some amount of power, and thus almost certainly some way of fucking with our results. That's a given. From a townAli POV, eir role definitely failed in a way designed to get them limmed and you jumped into the thread with the clear agenda of achieving eir lim. It seems entirely reasonable that that would lead to a scumread on you.

Roleblocking, specifically would require the scumteam to pick out Ali as the protective source. Interfering with the funding *might* require that, depending on how it works. Strongman wouldn't require it at all. LLD and Uno would have known the person who could have been protecting. A scum team with notAli, notLLD, notUNO, notBingle is a pretty small scumpool. It leaves only two town the remaining 4 people. Even if the scumteam is in the other five entirely, it's not unreasonable for them to have guessed that LLD would have used the "very strong power". AD's post of "I hope LLD didn't use the very powerful ability" at the very beginning of D3 makes me think a scumteam would be more likely to guess Ali would doc over LLD. An uninformed scumteam with me would have guessed that specifically because it was known Ali had a doc and possible that Uno had a doc, so all things equal Ali was more likely to be the one protecting.

tl;dr

The probability of scum being able to actively fuck with this result if Ali is town is actually pretty high, imo. Which leads back to: would Ali, who was willing to risk eir slot to kill a cop fake the result failing instead of saying "I thought scum would assume the cop was protected so I used a watcher or whatever on AD. Bingle visited him and made the kill."

Which leads us back to: who is the scumteam if Ali is scum here?

[Bingle]

STD has requested replacement and I will find one if its the last thing I do.

I'd much prefer it be the first thing you do, tbh. I'm not sure I want to play this game if it results in your death. Seems like a pretty shit trade.

[Bingle]

on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.

here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.

Hm. I agree that the situation is a good parallel for GL, I'm not sure it's a good parallel for Ali/Titus. There's a pretty big gap between D1 QH and XLO-1 soft guilty.

For transparency: I believe the failed doctor to be on the same level as tracking a previously claimed investigate to the kill of a reasonable investigation target. If we had 2 mislims left, I'd already have voted Ali even if I was hard town reading em. Given we're at XLO-1, I think more caution is required.

I would have limmed you that game, no question. The absolute refusal to believe that someone might believe it to be a good idea to hammer a very scummy individual who claimed doc at L-1 instead of waiting for a CC seems naïve at best. Like, I would always wait for that claim and treat it as a free pass to the next day, but I know there are people who would not, as town. I have played with people who would not, as town. There are plenty of people who would advocate parsing the believability of the claim before waiting to see if there was a reason to CC, and your aggression there actively hurt the odds that Titus would go down. Your argument there (and here) looks more like achieving a lim by any means rather than actually trying to figure out if the lim is on scum.

This does tell me that 4 years ago you WOULD play this the way you have if you believed the missing kill was a lockscum case. If you have a more recent example I'm interested in seeing it, but for now I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt and taking your aggression here as NAI.

Do you think it is likely scum have a way to fuck with results?

[Bingle]

The role matters. Who fills the role today doesn’t. They either do what the town collectively agrees or they get limmed tomorrow.

This. LLD claimed a loan of $60. That means we're in the hole $90. Our minimum income from taxes is $90 which is incredibly unlikely. We still get to fund almost two roles entirely if that is the case by taking out a $200 loan. If whoever is treasurer disagrees with that, it's a 1v1 with LLD, mechanically, which is solved tomorrow when the next treasurer gets to look at the balances.

The treasurer is a day action. Say they give me $0 so I can't act and claim they gave $100, I get to blow the whistle right there before elimination. Even if they make the decisions town wants, if we think they're scum we don't lose anything from eliminating them after they act, because they will already have used their power. If they lie about their budget, again it's a 1v1 tomorrow when the next treasurer is explicitly informed of how much money the previous treasurer left in the bank or a 1v1 today when the funding doesn't add up. So basically, regardless of who treasurer is the only way they can actually use the role is exactly the way we want them to use the role.

[Bingle]

Hope I’m not being presumptuous when I say we’re limming Ali or GL. Surely one of them is scum right

I'm trying to figure out if I believe one of them is scum, actually. I think right now, I'd prefer to partner hunt.

[Bingle]

To elaborate, I'm pretty sure LLD town. I think I'm reasonably sure Skrew is town at the moment. I think at most 1 of Ali and GL is scum, but definitely not both.

That leaves me with 2-3 scum in a pool of sheep/Furtiveglance/GivingUpOnTheDragons/Unowen, which is at worst, even odds with limming in Ali/GL.

[Bingle]

Wait the people getting funded find out before lim? I need to double check when I got my funding PM

Shea said he'd sent the funding PM before nightstart in council 2. I assumed the same was true of the other nights.

[Bingle]

that Shea post in the council is after the final votecount/thread lock/start of N2 in this thread

Pay no attention to the Bingle behind the curtain. I just checked when I sent in my funding and it was 3 days before shea sent it out. Apparently I've been misremembering that for this entire dayphase.

[Bingle]

It still stands that we don't have to not eliminate the treasurer so they can submit, though. If we become absolutely sure of scum treasurer then we can lim them, we'd just want to flash lim them so they didn't submit a bonkers budget at the last minute.

[Bingle]

ingle moment

A ingle moment is the product of a ingle force and the perpendicular distance of said force from the center of rotation of a body, resulting in ingle torque.

[Bingle]

Which leads us back to: who is the scumteam if Ali is scum here?

This isn't specifically @GL, either.

I'm interested in anyone's proposed teams based on both of Ali/GL scum scenarios. Let's not lose our momentum waiting for a STD replacement and get bogged down in another full playerlist refresh.

[Bingle]

namely I was thinking about this post earlier and maybe I'm way off here but... I kinda don't understand why LLD would need to ask this, when I think about it. Alisae already said e was fully funded. If LLD is town and Alisae is scum, the main benefit is to prevent scum!Alisae from changing e's story later, but I dunno I am kinda feeling a vibe that it's a S/S interaction. I don't think I can properly articulate exactly why at the moment cause sleepy brain, but I'll be around tomorrow and I'll try to unpack a lot more

Eh. She's pretty night-and-day from her scumplay here and it's not like she's not had the opportunity to try to take over. You can argue that she's just sitting back and letting me run town into a wall, but she had that opportunity in unwnds(?) game when I was an IC and didn't. It's just not her style to be passive like that. She fought hard for thread control despite the IC who was poised to lead town off a cliff metaphorically as scum then, and this detachment is way more in line with the feelings you keep professing about feeling like the town is going off rail and no one is listening to you.

[Bingle]

can you elaborate on this? I'm not really super familiar with LLD's scum play but I have the impression that she is an extremely skilled player. it seems like your argument is ultimately "LLD is passive here and scum!LLD isn't passive" but I don't know if a single game where scum!LLD wasn't passive is enough for me to be convinced she can't be scum here

It's not so much a single game where she wasn't passive as the

reason

she is an extremely skilled player. LLD is very strong at taking control of the game. As scum, she uses this to get rid of people who are threats to her and to craft the game she needs to win. As town, she forces through her reads.

The biggest thing that makes her town here is that she's not been doing that. She got burned early and has lost the WIM town her needs to be effective. I've seen scum her literally power through aggressive attacks from her closest relationships on site, where town her is more susceptible to becoming disengaged and dropping out of the game.

[Bingle]

I know this is kind of self meta but that's a town tell for me. The fact I'm NOT IN CONTROL OF THE GAME is a massive towntell for me.

This, unironically.

Like, it's not that LLD couldn't disengage from the thread as scum. She could just not play. But that's not going to increase her odds of winning. She'd be shooting herself in the foot, playing opposite to her strengths, in a lobby where I'm the only one who knows that about her and she thinks I'm scum and where she knows there's late game investigation.

[Bingle]

frankly most of it really truly is that I don't believe it's anywhere near as likely that scum have a strongman or RBer as it is Alisae is just a wolf. like that's just how my brain sees these situations, the simple explanation with the most immediate evidence is one I trust, for me it's a big hurdle to go

"well what if scum also have a way to counter a doc"

. I also don't like how Alisae tried to source the opening post as if that definitively proved the existence of counterplay when all it says is the most generic text about "abilities" to "effect" the game

Why? I'm assuming you read my bigpost about why I think the existence of such a role is very likely, so is there something about it that you disagree with?

[Bingle]

Bingle's push on GL feels a bit muted/backseat and a lot of his contributions have been mech based

I'm pushing GL? News to me. I'm pushing GL to be more thorough in his analysis, because if he's town here it's pretty surface level wrt the Ali situation and I'm not sure how I feel about that.

If anything, I'm trying to decide if this a world where this whole thing is T/T and scum are capitalizing on their PR usage. And yes, a lot of my contribution to the evaluation of a soft guilty is mechanical, because the soft guilty is mechanical.

In other, mechanical news, we should 100% be deciding on a budget before the lim here and we should be doing that ASAP, so whoever gets the treasurer role needs to out budget immediately.

[Bingle]

What are your actual reads? Can you do a list?

Not off the top of my head, because it's not a linear readslist. I'm looking more at a full solve at the moment. The two townreads I feel fairly confident on are LLD and SKrew, in that order. GL is vaguely town from my earlier logic about his reactions to the xofelf slip conversation. Looking back yesterday I did agree with myself that he's probably town for that, although his approach to the Ali thing today has been pinging all sorts of warning bells.

Ali isn't really towny, but I'm having a hard time reconciling the narrative that scum is willing to trade one-for-one with someone who isn't full confirmed and only might enter the day with a relevant result. Like, Ali scum hardspews SK town I think, and I think the scumteam would recognize that. Compound that with the fact that we were rapidly running out of potential protections, guaranteeing a guilty result on a not particularly scumread player seems like both a desperation move and a move that the scum team makes with the least townread of their group. I don't see Ali being in both of those situations to be super likely.

If I had to pull a dayvig here, it'd be sheep. Most of the remaining Plist seems okay with limming him without actually wanting him dead, which is a pretty comfortable place to keep a scumbuddy in your reads list.

[Bingle]

Bingle/LLD, are there any concerns about sharing all the budgetary info in the main thread?

Go for it.

[Bingle]

Can confirm I only have one remaining ability.

[Bingle]

That leaves me with 2-3 scum in a pool of sheep/Furtiveglance/GivingUpOnTheDragons/Unowen, which is at worst, even odds with limming in Ali/GL.

GTH, I think the individual scummiest player here is sheep. I'm probably willing to just sheep LLD on furtive atp. STD felt like town while he was active, which I guess would mean Uno would be scum if neither of Ali/GL is T/T and that's like... eh? Maybe?

The fact that I can't put together a coherent scumteam that I think is compelling in any of those situations is literally why I keep asking what people think scumteams look like. I'm not asking because I have this grand solve and I want someone to come along and then well akshually them, but because I actually want to know.

[Bingle]

ultimately the one liner would be I don't see what he's really doing to help town win

The one liner response would be doing my absolute best to make sure we don't autolose.

[Bingle]

Did you see the team I put out?

GL sheep uno? I did. It jives with my thought that LLD is emotionally tunneled on Furtive for killing her wim D1, but I'm not sold on GL scum. There's too many question marks there for me to want to unwrap that right now. What did you make of my thought that GL definitely thought the slip thing on xof was going to go through despite there being a clear counter to it in the thread?

[Bingle]

Why isn't Bingle a bigger presence this game...

I mean besides that I literally didn't play mafia for two years? RL. I've been putting in exactly as much effort as I can afford to give this game (actually I haven't but you don't get to eat into my 4k strategy game time). And I don't think saying I haven't made an impact on this game is fair at all, although it is 100% fair that my reads have been proscum. I crusaded both the xof and ircher lims. I was wrong on both of the xof and ircher lims, but they are definitely an impact I've had on this game.

[Bingle]

I think the slip thing probably comes from GL as both alignments tbh

The thing is I don't think GL scum pushes it that gung ho. Like, GL pays way more attention and sees that furtive claimed the vig prenight if he's scum I think.

[Bingle]

1) Andante being a cop with a result is valuable to town, and scum would be willing to gamble one of their own to kill her,
or
2) it's not that valuable, and the setup is roughly balanced without scum powers like RB or strongman

wot?

These two things aren't mutually exclusive at all?

FTC is a breaking strategy.
Scum don't want to trade 1 for 1 with a cop claim.

If the answer to FTC was to have scum cc the cop on D1 it wouldn't be a breaking strategy. The cop strategy we're using is significantly less powerful than FTC, but still puts the game in a state that is similar to nightless if scum have no counterplay, but also has additional town power. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ss_Vanilla

[Bingle]

I'll mull it over

Like, if you/GL is a 1v1 like you're arguing, then we're in a decent position here. But what if you're wrong? Did you look at GL's linked game where he went ham on Titus for quick hammering? Both of us know there are town *cowbells*cough* who would absolutely have the thought their read was strong enough to quickhammer a docclaim D1 as town, but GL pulled basically the same thing he's pulling here there and got flipped for it. And that lost town the game.

I think it's definitely worth it to try and make sure this is actually a 1v1 before we stuff our eggs in this particular tube sock. Once we start swinging it, we can't really go back.

[Bingle]

Overall scummy. I think your early read on him was colored by the wimkilling interactions and is potentially compromised by rage blinders and I don't really have an answer to pooky's why does scumfurtive protect xof point, but there are just so many weird questions around his play that I find it hard to think he's town. Of course, I thought the same shit about Lorne/Ircher and that got me this far so....

I'd be willing to flip furtive today.

[Bingle]

I don't mean wimkilling as in a direct desire from you to kill LLD's WIM, or I would be 100% on youscum.

I mean that you were integral in the interactions that did in fact kill LLD's WIM. I would also say that Ausuka and Cakez were integral in that situation, but I do think that LLD is more likely to scumread you for it regardless of your play since.

[Bingle]

What are your weird questions around my play? I'll see if I can answer them

There was the whole pooky is scum because he convinced LLD to tell him to kill town thing, which you admitted to being contingent on xofelf town but which didn't disappear when you started scumreading xof. There was the weird defense of xofelf's slot and misunderstanding of the core of the slip argument. There was the "people said vig before xof did" comment to discount the slip without then pointing out that you'd said it prior to night start when it was clarified. I dunno, that's what comes to mind off the top of my head, but there were probably other things as well. I've basically just been lumping it under the general label of "WTF is furtive doing over there".

[Bingle]

It works better if you use &ppp=209

[Bingle]

But 209 is prime.

[Bingle]

&ppp=42069

[Bingle]

Can people stop repeating the lie that LLD killed meowth? My scumread on meowth predated pretty much anyone's.

This is exactly what I mean when I reference the weird shit furtive’s done umbrella.

[Bingle]

Like… “I didn’t say that thing I said four pages ago” is such a bizarro take.

[Bingle]

Who is saying you're OMGUS-ing?

[Bingle]

Yeah I said I was one of the first players to express a scumread on meowth, which is true. I didn't say I killed meowth.

You have to admit that saying "LLD didn't kill meowth. I was one of the first people on meowth." at least is implicitly saying that you were responsible for the meowth lim. Otherwise there's no connection between those points and you're just not giving any reasoning for why LLD championing the meowth lim wasn't a big part of why meowth is dead. Either that's just avoiding the point with a non sequitur or a reach for towncred, neither of which look particularly good.

[Bingle]

I realized I never shared treasury info - we had a decent windfall from taxes last night, we brought in $125. So even with paying back a $60 loan we could have $65 to play with and maybe take out another small loan. my thinking is we just fund the cop tonight and no one else, if sheep is town he's useful to flip and get out of the POE without wasting a lim if scum kills him, and if he lives he can investigate Bingle or whoever we're least sure of in the limpool

And $125 is still pretty low. We should be expecting $16.75 per player, which gives us an expectation of ~$150 with 9 alive. Paying back the $60 loan should be $90, should it not?

[Bingle]

I looked at the role pm and it does totally imply the scum don't pay taxes. I'm just used to moderators using townie and player interchangeably in the review process, ig. That... actually solves my concern about why we were consistently coming in underfunded, although it makes it significantly less likely the scum power is budget based, which in turn increases the likelihood of a scum rb or Sman. I will say with the reduced amount of funding expected a full rb is probably a bit much to expect of scum here, but being able to frame ali seems likely.

I do think that means that we shouldn't at all go for a small loan here. A loan of $80 (funding sheep fully) means a payback of $120. Five players paying taxes (assuming we get the scumlim, so best case scenario) gives an average return of just over $90, so we're super likely to default with even a small loan. A full loan of $200 gives us two roles full funded or 3 roles decently funded, at the expense of us probably never getting out of debt this game. I would go 80/80/70 on COP/JOAT/TRACK (approximate odds of success 72/100/70 %).

If I get the funding, I'll be posting my target in the PT as close to the deadline as I can and would like to manipulate nightstart to help with that. Given that my ability and LLD's would be counterproductive to target the same person with, I'd be vaguely to a targeting pool plan, where we limit who we can target to prevent overlap. I'm not going to offer unilateral control of my target, however, and the pool will 100% be decided in the main thread, since the only scumteam without PT access would be Ali/Furtive/SK.

[Bingle]

If we do the above, LLD should be targeting in the scummier pool (and both me and sheep) and I should be targeting the townier pool.

I'd go with

Alisae
Bingle
sheepsaysmeep
Kdowns

SleepyKrew
GuiltyLion
Lady Lambdadelta
Unowen

as the pools if we lim furtive.

[Bingle]

No, I formatted that wrong copying from the spreadsheet with the math. The mayor is 100.

Should be

A full loan of $200 gives us two roles full funded or 3 roles decently funded, at the expense of us probably never getting out of debt this game. I would go 80/80/70 on COP/TRACK/JOAT (approximate odds of success 72/100/70 %).

[Bingle]

No, I formatted that wrong copying from the spreadsheet with the math. The mayor is 100.

Should be

A full loan of $200 gives us two roles full funded or 3 roles decently funded, at the expense of us probably never getting out of debt this game. I would go 80/80/70 on COP/TRACK/JOAT (approximate odds of success 72/100/70 %).

Makes sense, although I surely earned it I doubt a humble Council Member could demand a better pay deal than the Mayor.

I think it's probably correct to take the full loan, fund as many roles as possible and ruin our economy here. The cop ought to be fully funded regardless though, we should not leave that to chance.

The issue with full funding the cop compared to a different role is that it's more percentage points per dollar to fund JOAT. We could feasibly fund Cop/Track/JOAT as 100%/100%/20%, but there's like no point to funding the JOAT at all at that point, so we might as well just fund the two roles. We could do the same with partial funding the Track, but there we get 100%/62.5%/50% and again it's just too likely for a failed JK or Track. If we go that way, we definitely shouldn't fund me, because JK is an invisible role and I wouldn't have a way of knowing if my action actually failed or not so the result would be especially useless.

[Bingle]

Is that right?

Yeah, that’s right. My full budget for the calculations was slightly off but it doesn’t have a huge impact on the results.

We can full fund two, in which case the third is basically useless.

We can full fund one expensive (cop) and have the other two at meh funding, in which case the JK is a poor option and you should have the funding.

We can full fund the cheapest (tracker) and have the other two be at reasonably high likelihood.


I’m in favor of the third option. I don’t think we really need to fund the cop above 90%($99) in any case, but I also like to play the odds.

[Bingle]

I’m in favor of the third option. I don’t think we really need to fund the cop above 90%($99) in any case, but I also like to play the odds.

My problem with this option is that if sheep is scum he could say “whoops guess we just got the unlucky 10% outcome” and there’d be no way of figuring out if that’s true.

Except limming him. The same is true of a fake guilty or inno. But scum still have a high incentive to kill townhim because a 10% that he doesn’t get a result is like no chance at all.

If tomorrow is XLO, sheep’s result isn’t as useful because we’re not really going to trust it anyway. If we lim scum here we still have a miselim to try to use to resolve potential 1v1s. If we get multiple guilties, we can maybe be in autowin tomorrow.

[Bingle]

I'd actually prefer a potential scum sheep claiming a 'failure' to a potential scum sheep claiming an innocent, because the former doesn't potentially remove a scum player from the lim pool tomorrow and shines a bigger spotlight on sheep. The big concern is town sheep claiming a failed action, which is annoyingly possible even if we don't underfund him. That's kind of the whole reason we're not powerlimming Ali here: the odds scum has some way of fucking with our plans is pretty high and soft guilties in XLO and the day before XLO can't be taken for granted.

[Bingle]

Do something worth listening to

[Bingle]

Do something worth listening to

the trick is to use the emoji that's most relevant to the user in the given context.

:furret: :furret:

[Bingle]

VOTE: SleepyKrew

Any particular reason you're voting Sleepy over Uno here?

[Bingle]

I don't really get how bingle is tied into this btw.
I don't know if you explained it or not but I've really liked this posting this day phase

Honestly I don't pay attention when LLD scumreads me in general, but me being a scumread here isn't a surprise at all.

Objectively, I have lead town down some pretty shitty paths (I was tunneled on Cakez D1 and didn't catch on to meowzers until he was basically outed, I led the crusade to lim xof based on their reaction to the slip conversation, I fought hard to get the Ircher elimination.) I don't think any of my reads have been unreasonable, but solely looking at results I'm having a really shitty comeback game. I'm not going to stop arguing my reads, but suspicions being thrown my way are not at all unwarranted imo.

[Bingle]

They haven't shifted a lot, tbh.

I'm pretty damn sure that LLd is town.

I think Skrew is town based on the arguments here:

What's the argument then? That you would do the kill and the cop check if you were scum? I think you wouldn't.

The argument is that there are a lot of town power roles that straight up aren't going to be used on a claimed cop, like JK or roleblocker, and the slot is the least harmful to the scumteam if it goes down to a power role like watcher or rolestopper. The counterargument is "What about tracker?" But I don't think tracker is what scum were interested in playing around on night 2, given that I wasn't able to delay my funding claim to closer to deadline because of RL and 'really powerful role' being tracker would be hilarious given the tracker costs less than the JOAT to activate. Additionally, even in the case of Tracker, Skrewscum can just sit back and wait to see if LLD is going to announce a tracker guilty and at least try to duck the elim with "I was copping pooky." where no other person in the thread could possibly have been visiting anyone that night. Which, notably is not what Skrew did. And let's be clear: scumSkrew wouldn't need to do the cop check. Because scumSkrew would have this thing called access to the scum PT.

It's not a slam dunk towncase because there are reasons not-skrew would make the kill (being less aware of mechanical optimization choices than I expect being the big one) but it's 100% why LLD made the right choice of target with Skrew, even if potentially not the right choice of power.

Didn't I already say all of this?

I think at most one of GL/Ali is scum, and that there are reasons to consider that both may be town.

I think that sheep is the scummiest individual player, but that trying to convince the town to lim sheep and fund JOAT/JOAT/TRACK is a fool's errand.

I think that of the remaining three players (you, Uno, and kdowns) there are reasons to suspect all of you, but I don't have any particularly strong thoughts as to who is right to lim today and I'm feeling kind of demoralized on picking my own pushes since they've been pretty shit. At the moment I'm just kind of hanging back and seeing what happens to try to make some sense of why all of the people I think are scum are flipping town.

[Bingle]

I typo'd in my spreadsheet and didn't realize it until Uno pointed it out. I had that post debt payment we'd have 230 written down, but didn't bother with a numbered correction post because philosophically nothing changed.

I don't think there's a consensus but this is still a good summation of the decent options:

Is that right?

Yeah, that’s right. My full budget for the calculations was slightly off but it doesn’t have a huge impact on the results.

We can full fund two, in which case the third is basically useless.

We can full fund one expensive (cop) and have the other two at meh funding, in which case the JK is a poor option and you should have the funding.

We can full fund the cheapest (tracker) and have the other two be at reasonably high likelihood.


I’m in favor of the third option. I don’t think we really need to fund the cop above 90%($99) in any case, but I also like to play the odds.

Honestly at this point my vote is that you WIFOM between the three options because waiting around on the full consensus is just going to lead to a bigger slog and more replacements.

[Bingle]

but those are just like, some solid explanations for things, like I want to believe they've been existing the whole time and weren't just come up with to now justify his existing reads

Sheep coming in with solid takes like furtive's read reset justifies all the reads that were left behind prior to the reset and then taking the stance that someone ninja'd that insanity is the real mood this game, tbh.

[Bingle]

I guarantee if I get eliminated Bingle will waffle about mech all through ELO. What an automaton.

Yup, I'm a robot for taking about mech when the person we're waiting on literally asks me about mech. Fuck you too, buddy.

[Bingle]

And you sound like an asshole. Don't worry, I'm not specifically talking about when you called me a chatbot, I'm talking about your entire game.

[Bingle]

It's cool, I probably took it more harshly than necessary. I don't really think you're an asshole, FWIW.

[Bingle]

Sheep coming out of the woodwork to try and defend Furtive only grants me more confidence tbh.

Ngl, this thought crossed my mind. The whole defense of furtive because his read reset explained all his previous behavior is wolfy AF.

Is there any chance we can fund JoaT/JoaT/Track and just lim sheep here? Tracker isn’t far off of cop with only two scum left.

[Bingle]

I don’t think it’s impossible. Like, I’m maybe 90% on sheep and 70% on furtive. I feel like sheep is the stronger choice and it makes our night actions stronger by a lot to hit a second scum here.

[Bingle]

The short answer is that there's really no team I see making sense without you.

[Bingle]

Let's be real, this is a game. I didn't make your life hell.

To make this clear to literally everyone:

LLD absolutely is the kind of person who takes all of the shit slinging to heart. Like, there is no world where this is not legitimately LLD being emotionally compromised.

This is the biggest fucking sign that she's town. The use of the treasurer role, the wagon on meowth, the peacekeep on SKrew? All of those are protown behaviors that LLD would be able to fake. But not this. Scum LLD channels the hurt into solidifying her power on D2. Scum LLD burns the world around her to get her way because as scum she knows that she needs to do so to win, in spite of the pain she's undergoing. It's town LLD that goes quiet when her emotional state is compromised, and that's exactly what we saw for the whole middle portion of the game. I've been super up front about that this whole time, and honestly the way furtive is approaching her here (discrediting her emotions) is exactly what scum furtive would need to do to kill her WIM and escape the lim again.

[Bingle]

I mean, if you're town here then just take the post for what it is. LLD absolutely is accurately representing her thoughts, regardless of her alignment and anything further trying to discredit that is just going to put her on tilt and make her miserable. I know that much from interacting with her as a mod.

Is it possible you're town and you don't realize the effect you're having here? Sure. But take it from me that this is 100% real from her.
Is it possible you're scum and playing to win? Sure. It is, theoretically, the highest EV path to take to put her on tilt and thus deal with her contributions.

But I don't think you realize how hard she takes it in either case, and any insinuation that she's faking her emotions is just going to throw fuel on that fire.

At this point, I don't think you're going to convince her you're town. Your best bet is to solve outside of that (which to be fair, you did with your reads list) and try to convince the people you actually have a chance to convince instead of engaging with LLD's arguments. Walk me through why Skrew wouldn't be likely to make the kill as scum. Sell me on the sheep townread. As far as I can tell the core of the read seems to be that he's not scum with me, which... Well, yeah.

[Bingle]

Okay, in the interest of hashing this out let's say skrew is scum.

Do you disagree that Skrew was probably the most expendable slot scum had there?

[Bingle]

Okay, in the interest of hashing this out let's say skrew is scum.

Do you disagree that Skrew was probably the most expendable slot scum had there?

If I'm being honest, I'm not sure a scumteam without you on it would think about optimal nightkill stuff.

How would you decide who would make the kill? Like, it’s a decision that would literally have to have been made, so it’s a pretty safe assumption that someone made it.

[Bingle]

But on the night in question a scumteam had to play around “a powerful role”, which to me definitely means they’d be worried about whether they could be tracked or watched or blocked or what have you.

And in any of those cases it seems obvious that skrew was either the right player to sacrifice (indirect investigators) or the player least likely to be targeted(blocking roles). With the sole obvious exception being specifically tracker, which explicitly was not funded as an option.

[Bingle]

launching (or trying to) a big think at work today

Good luck with the launch!

[Bingle]

furtive's partner is probably bingle actually and not kdowns btw

I wot?

How am I mafia to you when I’m pretty much the reason GL didn’t campaign to turbo you? I’d think you of all people would tr me here.

[Bingle]

If I talked GL out of eliminating you and your scum trying to tie me to your buddy here we will have words. WORDS, ALISAE, WORDS.

[Bingle]

[Bingle]

Declare sheriff

[Bingle]

Responding to GLs last night post: the strat I suggested wasn’t about wasting money but about hopefully generating as many mechanical 1v1s as possible. If we had a furtive scum flip, we’d be able to miss on one of them. If we didn’t we would at least have a starting position for analysis.

[Bingle]

Do you think the world of GL/LLD team faking a guilty on Ali here is likely?

[Bingle]

I don't think that PR results here are going to matter much, tbh. We're in XLO, so we're never going to be able to fully trust a result again. With that said we have probably 2 more PR usages to fund, and the thing is that the treasurer probably doesn't matter at all for that. We need trustworthy people in positions where their results actually matter. I'd put GL in JOAT and LLD in tracker and overfund both to mitigate any further sabotage.

I declared cop because I don't think cop is actually useful anymore and I'd like to get past the waiting period.

[Bingle]

tl;dr, I don't mind Uno treasurer, regardless of whether Uno is actually town.

[Bingle]

Garbage is probably the best yeah.

[Bingle]

So, I have been wondering about why the sabotage happened last night, and I can't help but wonder. The first explanation is that scum wanted to mess with the quality of the results given this is the first night we've publicly considered going all in on getting results, and it's not targeted at anybody. I don't really think that's the case, tbh. The second thought was that this was targeted at me. After all, GL's overnight thoughts were all about how this should make me look bad. I could maybe see this as a frame job trying to tie a brick to my legs. I then considered who this makes look good: GL. If he is scum this is a pretty good way of going "Why would I bother sabotaging the budget when I already had control of it" despite the fact that any unreasonable funding choice would naturally come under suspicion. My last thought, though, is that we've now had two nights of weird results due to some form of scum fuckery (Ali either faking a doc or being rb'd and this sabotage business) and both came on nights when we borrowed from the treasury. What if the scum actions can only be used when we take out loans and were explicitly there as a way to prevent town from getting a giant advantage on like N1 if town had an overfunded all town council?

Given that and the lack of trust I'm going to have for any claimed results, I think we should just not use power roles tonight unless they can be funded without going into debt. If a small loan managed to let them sabotage or roleblock or whatever, imagine what a big loan might cost us.

[Bingle]

@GL, what caused your major turnaround from Ali defscum overnight to Aliprobablytown today?

[Bingle]

oh so you think it's "when town takes loans from the bank, scum own the bank and get funded for their powers from it"?

I don't see another way for scum funding to be a thing, tbh. I'd actually just straight up dismissed it yesterday when GL brought it up as a possibility because it'd be pretty obvious if we funded someone and they just used the money on something else. Not to mention it's a negative feedback loop which is badgamedesign and I've talked to shea about that before at length.

[Bingle]

why did scum go through so much effort to negate a town cop result that a lot of us probably wouldn't have even trusted to begin with

This is pretty much the reason for post 5079. Like, regardless of who was scum here, why? Last night's shit is just bizarre, and I'm trying to figure out what that means for the game state.

[Bingle]

I realize my last post is kind of implicit, the point is the best explanation for the sheep kill in my mind is if Alisae is town, scum want to bank the game on miseliminating em today, and they wanted to prevent any chance of sheep getting a town!Alisae result

That seems pretty reasonable, actually.

And you're right that any towncred you get from burning sheep without funding is probably less than the basically free elimination of sheep, so that's like major tinfoil. Which leaves me at the scum is trying to frame me option or the scum can only act with a loan option as likely contenders for a why and the latter kind of fits with Ali's failed doc being the first actual scum power evidence we've seen.

[Bingle]

also I'm probably getting ahead of myself here and I'll wait to see what LLD says but if she tracked Alisae and got the result that Alisae went nowhere, I'd consider that a soft inno in this gamestate. If I'm a scum team with Alisae I send Alisae to do any night kills at this point since e is the most suspected member and already soft mech-guiltied already

I mean, that's basically the same logic that led to my townread on SKrew, yeah.

[Bingle]

I don't know if I 100% trust alitown yet, but you've definitely shaken the surety I felt going into night that e is scum. I kinda just want to get the confirmation of budget shit out of the way so I can focus all of my attention here and not have that little bit of doubt in the back of my head. This all gets so much easier (and also so much harder) if Uno just comes in and say you're a stupid liar face.

Who hasn't declared?

[Bingle]

Spoiler:

lets declare roles and get this phase done quickly ig

Declare: Board

I know we’ve had a crummy run - but today is the day it turns around! I’m sure of it...

Declare: Treasurer

Someone I trust needs to look at the budget.

Declare: mayor

Declare sheriff

Declare Mayor

yeah I was thinking tracker again makes sense

aight bet.

Declare: Trash Collector

Skrew, declare cm so it doesn't disappear on the off chance we figure out a good use of it and we can rush through the election phase.

[Bingle]

Probably Boaty McBoatface.

[Bingle]

In the interest of impersonating our mod:

It is now Election Phase

Current Candidates

Treasurer[0]Unowen

Sherriff[1]

Bingle

Mayor[0]

kdowns, GuiltyLion

Council Member[0]

SleepyKrew

Trash Collector[0]

LLD

Board of Election[0]

Alisae

Countdown to deadline: 182934 days, 12 hours, 12 minutes

As always if everyone votes for a fast election election phase will end when the last ballot is submitted.

Spam FB with pms and tell him to expedite shipping.

[Bingle]

shhhh you.

[Bingle]

Tell fb you want a fast election early and often. Ideally once every fifteen minutes.

[Bingle]

It was probably firebringer. Sounds like something he’d do.

[Bingle]

Who requested a slow election?

[Bingle]

GuiltyLion when the sabotage happened did you get a chance to reallocate the budget?

That is a very good question.

[Bingle]

Unowen fully funded me and I’ve got a cop shot

Me too!

[Bingle]

@LLD I think you’re reading into kdowns disengagement as scum indicative of the people you’re suspicious of erroneously. Like, the anti spew bit makes sense, but it being because there’s no alternative to push for kinda doesn’t. If it’s kdowns Ali uno, for example, kdownsscum doesn’t want to risk the 1v1 with me or skrew despite the other potentially being swayed, because if he loses the 1v1 suddenly there’s a potential miselim that’s much harder to pull off.

[Bingle]

so to be clear your argument is... "it's Kdowns, but it's not me"

I mean, you say this, but the answer to it is kind of yes.

In your game state world (town gl, town lld, town ali) there’s a cut and dry answer as to the scumteam, but I don’t know that it’s right yet. At the risk of undermining my ability to win a 1v1 tomorrow, I’m not entirely convinced gl is town, for example. If Ali and gl are both scum, GL coming in assuming the guilty on his buddy and then slowly letting me talk him around when the lim doesn’t happen makes a lot of sense, as does the protection offered today. Playing last night pro town isn’t all that much of a stretch to me either, given that all scum gl needs to do here to win is be towny. He wins pretty much every 1v1 as far as gamestate reads go, and mechanically that’s all we can get at this point.

For today, it just doesn’t make sense for me to try to shake up consensus on me scum in any big way because while I know it’s wrong I’ll have a much better shot at not losing the game doing so if someone has a result giving us even that tiny bit of information to help sway beliefs, and I’m not actively losing the game by waiting til tomorrow to litigate my towniness and fight a rough 1v1 especially when I don’t even really know if it’d be the right pick for a 1v1.

Your analysis of kdowns not having that same luxury, knowing that as town he loses if he gets eliminated is 100% accurate, and if he were town I expect he would have at least tried to shift the wagon onto whichever of me or skrew he thought was scummier because that way he has a chance at not just losing the game, but that just didn’t happen.

[Bingle]

I'm not sure what to make of you coming at me like this, I feel like if I were town in your position I'd be a lot more paranoid of UNOwen but you don't seem worried about that at all?

I mean... I don't seem worried about it for now because I don't need to be worried about it for now. That's kind of the whole point of that post. Tomorrow, there's a chance that I have a clear path ahead of me. There's a chance I won't be the one on the chopping block. There's a chance that I'll be in a rough 1v1 and need to show my townness or lose the game. This isn't about who I'm going to be up against tomorrow, because I don't know even

if

I'll be up against someone tomorrow. LLD could well come in with a guilty and in that case I just have to make sure I'm still fine with my townread there. (Spoiler, I almost certainly will be; this is not scum LLD.) I don't think that last option is likely, I think she's pretty clearly getting shot tonight, but maybe we'll get lucky.

[Bingle]

Ali has secretly been one of the Beatles this whole time.

[Bingle]

Like no lie if I'm alive tomorrow I'm probably killing Bingle and letting Ali/SK/UNOwen endgame with whatever possible power roles we've managed to get tonight info wise and my last words. It's not... 100%, because I'm not 100% on Bingle scum, as said above but I have that inertia severely.

This? This right here? 100% why I needed to make that post. Because if you're alive tomorrow there needs to be the chance that you rethink things or we just straight up lose. If scum can just kill not you and get a free elim on me then hitting scum kdowns here doesn't help. I don't think it's likely that scum will let an investigativeLLD live, but if they do? I need at least the chance of not being the autoloss to walk away from this game with some dignity intact.

[Bingle]

okay so like, there are enough of us online at this point where at least one of SK and KDowns has to be scum, which makes me feel good about things a bit

FWIW I'm firmly on the side of kdowns scum. I still have the nagging feeling that slappykraw would have made the kill if he was scum the night you Peacekept.

[Bingle]

Ali has secretly been one of the Beatles this whole time.

Which one

Spoiler:

[Bingle]

VOTE: kdowns

I think this is the right move.

[Bingle]

VOTE: kdowns an ez win for the alisae

[Bingle]

Nice to come back to the site to a win.

To be fair, most scum teams are not going to be as strong as this one. I randed the roles and was like "oh...oh no."

[Bingle]

it's okay, this is a lesson everyone learns exactly once, and then i never get free rides ever again.

Pfffft. That wasn't a free ride. I put a lot of effort into getting you townread.

[Bingle]

I enjoyed the game all. I think there was a bit of inertia inherent in the setup design being reliant on the treasurer decision that made it a bit rough on town, but honestly that was also exacerbated by the treasurer just always being scum.

[Bingle]

this game could probably be a blitz with like
24-24-96

Yeah tbh that’s probably a good format for any type of game with a non majority phase in general.

I’d completely forgotten that needing to wait for the treasurer was a made up problem as well.

[Bingle]

the scum team was disgusting, we never had a chance ;_;

but maybe we would have had a slightly bigger one if I WAS TRASH MAN
ahhhhh

It is, after all, the sacred duty of the trash man to deal with the disgusting things so the town doesn't have to.