NY 177: Simple Complexity (GAME OVER: Scum Wins!)

[Pine]

Oh, I so do. Stop accusing me of scummy things, Psyche, you're flailing.

Hello all. If you think I'm reading 178 pages, you're laughably wrong. The last five pages, maybe. The last ten if I'm SUPER bored.

So...I'd like summaries and scumreads from people, please.

[Pine]

Also

@Mod: What is the deadline? Last Vote Count shows an expired date.

Fixed. Thank you. -Wake

[Pine]

It's not nice to be completely unhelpful to the new guy. Opacity helps the scum, so have a big heaping helping of scumpoints right out of the gate.

Goddamn I love simple scumtraps

[Pine]

So...an unprovoked Townclaim with no votes on you, and an eager "I don't care" in the same sentence. Anti-Town behavior in spades.

Still need summaries and reads, but this goes here until I get a damn good reason to move it

Vote: Majiffy

[Pine]

Unvote

No, that's just stupid. Scum wouldn't likely be that utterly reckless. Majiffy, get your head out of your ass and tell me who's scum. Turns out three negatives make a positive

Edit: Goddamn, stop moving so quickly. I can't breathe here. Sup, PV

[Pine]

PV, what's the scum case on Majiffy? I'm leaning towards it being wrong, but then you corroborated my first instinct

[Pine]

Ohhhh. Similarity of avatars between Majiffy and notscience confused me. All reactions to and references to Majiffy were regarding notscience

[Pine]

Ohhhh. Similarity of avatars between Majiffy and notscience confused me. All reactions to and references to Majiffy were regarding notscience

notscience has 400+ posts. Perhaps he could describe his game impact first before his lynch.

That's actually what I was requesting. His reluctance to help me understand made me think scum, but then the stubbornness and flippancy appeared too reckless for scum. Notscience is sticking around.

We on the same page now?

[Pine]

Right. So, notscience - is Peregrine V scum, null, or town? I'd love to have three in the good column before weeding out the rest.

Also, am I reading this correctly? We have innocent cop results on Gameplay and Reinoe? Why the fuck are there votes on Gameplay, unless I'm reading that wrong?

[Pine]

assuming Godfather

never do this

Holy shit, this in spades, people.

I know I've been don't give away from this site for a couple of years, and common doctrine changes, but you don't discard a Cop innocent until they either have a confirmed scum slip, contradicting investigator (ie Tracker following them to a body,) or it's LYLO. Jesus, that's not even that complicated.

Majiffy leading the questioning of innocent results practically confirms them.

House, you have precisely one post to unvote a Cop inno, or you get my vote

[Pine]

Marquis, if you can keep your urge to buddy at me in your pants, I'm working on establishing PV and House reads.

Also, your avatar and Psyche's are even more confusing than Majiffy and notscience. Plz 2 stop

[Pine]

Btw, I'm a little confused by the talk of Masons. Can you two confirm your mason claims for me? I srsly do not have the patience for archive diving in this clusterfuck of a thread

[Pine]

Assuming the Mason claims are legit, my list is:

--Town--
Gameplay (Cop inno)
Reinoe (Cop inno)
Marquis (Mason)
Psyche (Mason)
Notscience (Too reckless and unhelpful to be scum)

--Everyone else--
PV
Shaddowez
Skybird

--Scum--
House (Singularly unhelpful, anti-Town behavior, fixation on disproving Cop inno)

Vote: House

This is what we're doing

[Pine]

You're refusing to acknowledge the forest, but for the trees. Perhaps I can rephrase, such that you'll engage my allegation instead of splitting hairs: notscience was being moody and refusing to make things easier. You're being straight-up counter-productive and refusing to engage. There's a big damn difference between the two, though I could have chosen better words

At this point, I'm prepared to lynch everyone not on my Town list in a by-the-numbers fashion

[Pine]

You're refusing to acknowledge the forest, but for the trees.

What an interesting phrase. I wonder whether you used it specifically to grab my attention or if you just spoke off the top of your head.

Perhaps I can rephrase, such that you'll engage my allegation instead of splitting hairs: notscience was being moody and refusing to make things easier. You're being straight-up counter-productive and refusing to engage.

You've been nothing but confrontational towards me from the first word, and now you know how I respond to such tactics.

At this point, I'm prepared to lynch everyone not on my Town list in a by-the-numbers fashion

Nah, lynching me is a waste of time. Don't confuse annoying and stupid with scummy.

I've been confrontational towards your anti-Town behavior. You're laser-focusing on one of the only Cop innocents we have. Shut the fuck up and be productive. Even if you turn out to be the one or so Town on the list of four I made, lynching a counterproductive Townie is a net gain. If it were just me, I'd chain lynch all four of you, pending review based on flips.

Later posts are making me rethink this, preserving it as a representation of my stream-of-consciousness read.

I think Pine is scum guys. Like really scum. I am not sure on pere seeing how it developed.

Welp a message to our lovely SK:
Dear mister SK,
We need your help. You see the game will soon be over if we dont lynch correctly today and if you kill town again we might not win. I mean nor town nor you could win. And you see we have no idea in who you could be. So please try killing scum tonight. If you it'll reward you greatly by probably winning. Use your own reads mister SK but I suggest Pine dies. Like stab that bitch several times till he becomes a bloody, meaty mess. Ty ty :3

Pedit: oh house are you the SK?

Gameplay is hardcore SK-hunting. I'm completely rethinking the suggestion of Godfather. I still refuse to support lynching a Cop inno at this stage, but if we narrow it down further with no Godfather flip, this post alone changes everything. It reeks. Also, if you look back at Psyche's Majiffy quotes in 4513, Majiffy was discrediting the innocent on Reinoe, not Gameplay.

Unvote

House has a point. Voting Gameplay at this point is

stupid

, but I now understand the desire.

Psyche 4513 is a Townpost. Scum that think they're secure in a Mason fake claim are not likely to be that helpful.

PeregrineV is on my list and (I think) is at L-1, and is attacking the wagon on himself rather than pursuing an alternative. I'm ready to lynch him, but I'd prefer to have another day or so to solidify my thoughts, as I'm a good candidate for a NK. Consider this preparedness to hammer. Do we have a claim from PV? I'd also like to hear one before the end.

Currently suspecting Skybird more than Shaddowez. Still very on the fence about House

[Pine]

Suspicion of Skybird vs Shaddowez is based on Skybird's lack of effort, Shaddowez seems to be making an effort at logic. Too early to tell, though, this is why I want more time

[Pine]

I am very, very wary of trying to outguess the mod, especially given that the very first post of the thread cautions that there is a "twist" to the setup.

So yes, I very much do believe that a 4-Town neighborhood is possible. Personally, in my list of four people, I'm guessing two scum. As I said, Gameplay's SK-hunting is a huge red flag, and if no Godfather flips from the remainder, he's a good option in LyLo

[Pine]

Also, the numbers I'm looking at suggest 4 Mafia, 1 SK or 5 Mafia 1 Vig. Also remotely possible 2 teams of 2, teams of 3 are remote at this stage

[Pine]

Gameplay is SK-hunting

As I said, I am wholly unwilling to engage in the accounting of Neighborhood numbers. When your mod tells you straight-up that there's a twist, you chuck out all preconceptions

PE: I agree, stabbing usually means SK or Vig. Usually. I concur that the most likely numbers are 4+SK, I just refuse to take that as gospel

[Pine]

PV, you keep bringing up your neighborhood analysis. If we go with your assumption of one scum in each hood, then the lynch pool should be you, Marquis, and Shaddowez with Shaddow being the obvious lynch. If you feel you are right about this, why is your vote on house instead of Shaddowez?

Do not like this post. At all. It latches onto the assumption of 1 scum in each hood, which I feel is a very, very dangerous assumption to make. It sounds like exactly what the scum would want us to think.

I feel it is just as likely as anything for there to be all-town neighborhoods as anything.

This discussion has stagnated. I'm ready to move on. Does anyone have a substantial case to make that hasn't been brought up since I joined? I'm especially looking for analyses of Shaddowez and Skybird. I have a hunch of at least one scum between them, but not sure who. Links to previous cases are fine.

[Pine]

Hmm. The all-Town wagons are far more concerning than all-Town Neighborhoods. The former doesn't really happen, the latter can be a design quirk.

I'm going to take a big deep breath and dive into the Psyche/Marquis ISOs, see if they ever listed each other as scum. Masons might not buddy up to one another, but they'll never suspect one another. Scum that later fake claim Masons will probably have some bussing at some point in 184 pages

[Pine]

Preedit: NEVER FUCKING MIND

But I hate to lose all that work to just press delete, so whatever

As much as disproving the Mason claim would have made this easy mode, the evidence corroborates it. An exhaustive search of the records of tree, Psyche, and Marquis shows an unswerving confidence from both slots as to the Towniness of the other, right from the start. I've selected some representative quotes from each player:

Spoiler: Tree/Marquis

I'm not sure why people are saying Psyche and reinoe are behaving the same, or even similar at all.

Sure, Psyche's posts are short. But there's a clear sense of alignment (town) and effort in them. On the other hand, it feels like reinoe is purposely trying to obfuscate his motivations and everything, trolling for the sake of trolling rather than actually just playing the game lightheartedly like Psyche is.

tree you are up to be lynched
be careful what you call shit

By the way, can you give me your current thoughts on Aero+wagon? Believe it or not, I hold your reads in a somewhat high regard.

you really shouldn't lynch me or psyche

there are very good reasons to lynch texcat

tree doesn't exist

aero isn't getting lynched today

psyche is town

psyche and i are masons can we please lynch pv

Debut of Mason claim. Psyche doesn't refute, so after this point a detailed analysis is pretty academic, as it's either true or a committed fakeclaim, but I'll keep going.

Spoiler: Psyche

I think Tree is town - a VI. There is no conniving in his posts. A lot of players, present company included, play around too much at gamestart.
I don't quite understand why it's

this

show of excess that generates a wagon rather than my own or others, except that Majiffy has decided so and there are enough weaker players around to go with it.

I can't believe that the top wagon is tree.

tree you are up to be lynched
be careful what you call shit

Tree was making enemies here, Psyche is trying to pull him back from the edge. Shows concern for and confidence in Tree

marquis and i are a two-for-one

As you can see, the evidence of Marquis and Psyche being Masons amounts to an embarrassment of riches. It's thorough and without stumble. At this point, I am nearly willing to put my stamp on them as Confirmed Town. The only way they're scum is if they planned, from the very beginning, to fakeclaim Masons. This is unlikely, as they didn't crumb the role in case one got NKed, Psyche didn't know tree was an alt at first, and Psyche was reluctant to come right out with it when Marquis blurted it out.

There is one piece of contradicting evidence I'd like to present, though:

scum don't have daytalk

this is part of the rules, but it reflects on masons too

i'm guessing the reason neighborhoods have daytalk is because they can potentially house all factions, since daytalk topics that are guaranteed to be same-faction can get really powerful really quickly

why don't we talk about this in our mason qt marquis

These quotes seem contradictory, and I don't know why.

If the "masons" haven't confirmed after ask this time had passed, why are they still alive?

There should have been a race between scum and town slaughtering them... scum for conf town and town for hesitance to confirm.

Yet here they are...

That's how it seems to me, anyway. Am I wrong?

They've both confirmed, multiple times. I quoted a few of them. It's sad that I know more about this thread than you, when I've been here for two days.[/spoiler]

[Pine]

That's an hour of my life I'm not getting back

[Pine]

NEVER FUCKING MIND

Doesn't it suck to do all that work and then be wrong?

But, i'm kind of used to it.

Yes, yes it does.

Hey House? Being more experienced is irrelevant here. You were asking a question that had been answered multiple times. That's just simply not paying attention

[Pine]

A question that had been answered multiple times...with lies.

A very large part of me wants to kill them both with fire, but it's too late in the game for such whims

New list:

Reinoe, notscience, and I are Town. PV seems scummy. Psyche and Marquis should rot in hell. Gameplay is not an option for now, but a plausible Godfather. The rest of you are somewhere in the middle.

This went from very straightforward to a clusterfuck again

[Pine]

Yarp

This is why I want to kill it with fire

My gut says scum wouldn't admit to a fakeclaim tho

[Pine]

In need of complete reworking. I've spent about two hours reading this game today instead of working, and all of it, save the last little bit, has been under a false assumption. I'll sort out Psyche and Marquis tomorrow

They can both DIAF. I really hope they're scum, because there's just no excuse for that kind of fucked up Townplay

[Pine]

They're not Masons

[Pine]

Pardon, maybe it's a new term, what is "ii"?

[Pine]

Investigation immune?

[Pine]

After sleeping on it, I have to walk back my no ii's statement just a bit. I don't think we are dealing with a Godfather situation but I feel there's a good chance the SK is ii. My newb gut feeling is having two roles that are ii is a bit too favorable to the dark side.

Hmm. I'm very seriously considering whether this is a newbie scumslip. Here, Skybird is taking it as a given that there's no Godfather on the scum team, something that Town has hotly debated and is trying to figure out. I'm not seeing a good reason for Skybird to assume otherwise.

I'm also thinking that if there's scum between {Psyche, Marquis} it's Psyche. Fakeclaiming Masons with a Townie is practically suicide from a scum perspective, but a plausible (if asinine) Town gambit. Psyche's waffling on confirming or denying the Mason claim looks scummy to me in light of recent revelations. It looks like a deer in the headlights "Oh shit what do I do here, is this a trap?" response.

At this point, biggest suspects are PV, Psyche, Skybird. House also feels

off

to me, but that could just be the awkward middle experience point he's at. Would be good with any of those three lynches today, House and Gameplay on the back burner depending on flips

[Pine]

Yeah, but Town wouldn't be worried about that trap. They've got zero to lose by just saying "Nope, not masons, wtf are you talking about?"

It's not a trap to Town

Vote: Psyche

[Pine]

It's not moon logic. Town can't be trapped in that way, you were worried about it being a trap.

Ergo, scum

[Pine]

Scum is in a position of being offered this big get out of jail free opportunity. They grab at it too eagerly, the Townie makin the claim say "Nnnope, reaction test, you're super eager, scum."

Townie, on the other hand, has no real incentive to play along. They don't gain or lose anything by shooting it down, and in the Town/Town fakeclaim youd have us believe, can actually lose a lot by backing it falsely. You make both players targets, and set up an unnecessary mislynch when one of you flips non-Mason

Further, the waffling is the real problem. Town would look at this and decide whether to take the risk or not. Scum wants to hedge their bets, ultimately deciding "Eh, we just won't NK Marquis and I'll ride ConfTown to endgame

This is my interpretation, take it or leave it. I just don't see Town looking at someone faking Mason with them and thinking "Trap"

PE: PV has a point, sure. I'm thinking that Psyche is worried that Marquis will draw the SK kill, screwing him, or that he'll draw the kill himself

[Pine]

do not fakeclaim as town
do not fakeclaim as town
do not fakeclaim as town

Hmmm

Also this

[Pine]

Yeah, out guessing the mod is always a super bad idea. It almost always backfires. Basing it on patterns from another site is actually worse than arbitrary guessing

Also, SKs are sometimes II, yeah. But Town has zero reason to assume there's no GF, nor to assume that the SK is. Further, SK hunting is classic scumplay

[Pine]

Standard SK play is to mimic Town Vig, both because it's the go-to emergency claim and because their biggest threat is the Mafia team. SK wants the scum team dead just as much as Town does

Given that, the scumteam's biggest threat is the SK, and they're out to eliminate the SK ASAP.

From a Town perspective, it is not productive to focus on the SK, as the SK is scum hunting the same as Town is. Plus, SK looks a lot like Mafia in terms of their behavior, and is just as likely to be lynched on suspicion of being Mafia.

Therefore, when you see someone that's focusing suspiciously on finding the Serial Killer, you suspect Mafia team

[Pine]

@House - It's one of the few really solid scumhunting tips that's fairly consistent, because the temptation to do it on scum's part is really strong

[Pine]

In before he mentions that it derailed the legit wagon on him

[Pine]

To be fair, Skybird, the only deep reading I've done of the thread's backlog was ISOing Marquis and Psyche. Their posts suggested the Mason claim was a rescue attempt on a wagon against Psyche. I could be wrong

[Pine]

LAL is a stupid strategy. It dismisses the notion of Town gambits.

My takeaway from this is a Town Marquis trying to rescue a townread that happened to be scum

[Pine]

Cool story bro

[Pine]

This is also the third time he's threatened to replace out of this game while continuing to post. It's not credible

[Pine]

you really should have replaced me the first time
the fact that i'm still posting doesn't mean you don't have a job to do

Actually, it does. Replace out or don't. Don't say you want to, then continue to contribute. It's disingenuous, and smacks strongly of using a non-game factor to affect in-game play. It's a lot like active lurking, but you can just deny responsibility

[Pine]

I have decided not to abandon this game after fucking up.

One or both of PV/Shadow is scum. The above vote and reasoning was horrible.

Disagree

I don't have any clue where this ironclad townread came from, nor why you had it so early and never questioned it, but I'm forced to deduce that you're tunneling that read super, super hard, and can't accept that you were wrong all game

[Pine]

UNVOTE:

Marquis, from what I remember, PV has been the one pushing scum in each neighborhood.

Which is a super sketchy assumption. Remember, scum KNOWS the percentage of scum in each neighborhood. If there were even one all-Town hood, or one hood that you don't have members in that might contain our SK, charging full steam ahead on the notion that there has to be scum in each is practically required. It's a free action that looks like legit scumhunting, when it's just bad logic.

I've said it repeatedly, I'll say it again. Wake stated in the first post that there's a twist to this game. All bets regarding setup are off the table

[Pine]

Unless contradicted in bold, please refer to this post should I die

I am highly confident that {PV, Skybird, Psyche} contains 2-3 scum

[Pine]

Skybird expressed a sincere belief that there isn't a godfather. Town has plenty of reason to suspect the opposite. Sounds like a newbie scumslip to me

[Pine]

None at all.

I'm saying that you confidently don't think there is one, and Town has no reason to think otherwise. You're the one making a major assumption, and that screams "informed minority," AKA Mafia

[Pine]

I am willing to admit that there is a strong element of educated hunch to my interpretation. I see you discarding the possibility and making an assumption about the SK that is not a reasonable leap for the uninformed majority. Further, you just quoted yourself SK-hunting, which is forgotten was a red flag for you

The post you quoted is not in any way equivalent. It says to assume nothing except the evidence you're given, while you're pushing an evidence-free scummy agenda

[Pine]

The assumptions we make are one of the most significant insights into our motives.

My case consists of two very strong points:

1) You posited a theory that made an assumption involving information Town doesn't have. Ergo, informed minority. Ergo, Mafia

2) You're not scumhunting, you're Serial Killer hunting. That's a huge Mafia giveaway.

Yes, I feel that's a strong case

As for PV, it's a lot of little things. I don't have a bunch of time to put it all together on my tablet, so call it a strong, educated hunch. Biggest clue might be the way he reacted to getting wagoned, and how easily that wagon melted away (note to self, analyze who went on and off of that wagon.) Plus, if he were Town with several people ready to hammer, it would have happened

[Pine]

Scum's too close to winning to not take the opportunity for a justifiable mislynch. As that didn't happen, it's a pretty strong point against him

[Pine]

PV was at L-1 and his lynch didn't happen, even when 75% of players were endorsing it. If a Townie had been in that position, he'd have been hammered.

Also, at this point I'm pretty sure you're either not reading my case on you or sticking your fingers in your proverbial ears and going "La la la can't hear you." My case isn't for your benefit, it's directed towards everyone else. I'm quite finished explaining the same thing over and over again.

[Pine]

Nitpicking my every post and yelling "NUH UH" instead of doing productive scumhunting really isn't helpin your case

[Pine]

You keep telling me I'm sk hunting but that's bs. I'm trying to hunt scum. How exactly am I sk hunting and not scum hunting?

Right now I'm trying to figure out if Psyche and Marquis are scum, if one of them is scum and if so which one, or if neither of them is scum. So why do you keep bringing up the sk?

How about answering these questions?

Are you fucking with me? Seriously, are you? Asked and answered. Repeatedly. Read my goddamn posts

[Pine]

I would prefer to lynch Psyche before he weasels out of suspicion and kills me or the other people who scumread him, but I could compromise on PV.

But seriously, let's do Psyche today. There's plenty of support for PV for the next day, and I'm legit concerned that Psyche will active lurk out of this position

[Pine]

That is not the justification I'm suggesting. I'm saying that with so much stated support, it fell apart easily

[Pine]

Holy Hannah!!!! I thought my vote was the hammer.

Sadly not, the fakemason reveal derailed the Pere wagon.

P-Edit: Sorry Sky, thought notty was still voting Psyche, wagon sizes are about the same according to this VC.

No worries Shaddow.

Why is Pine's vote on Psyche then?

Because AS I ALREADY STATED, ON THIS PAGE, EVEN, THAT I THINK PSYCHE IS MORE LIKELY TO WEASEL OUT

READ THE GODDAMN FUCKING THREAD

[Pine]

Okay, it was last page. But it was really motherfucking recent

[Pine]

Aww man

I'm totes going to eat a NK

PE: aye aye

[Pine]

Prod on notscience too, please

[Pine]

Because I have to decide if I'm going to use my doublevote or not to instahammer

If you have some sort of ability that allows you to double vote, I'd save it.

Pine strikes me as the type to likely hammer if PerV goes to L-1.

Still want my Psyche lynch, but I'll do it if need be

Srsly, Townies on PerV. Come over to the Psyche wagon


Scum can definitely have doublevoting, and in Normal games. Been there, done that, scum win. Scum tends to be the X-shot variety, though, a durable doublevoter is probTown. That said, still reasonably sure notscience is notscum

Reinoe, Skybird is pretty obvscum at this point. Give it a rest, we'll leave her to the SK and string her up if the SK doesn't take the free scumkill

[Pine]

Didn't finish my thought. Reinoe, come on over to the suspiciously slow-moving Psyche wagon. It's where the cool kids are

[Pine]

If Skybird flips Town, I will be most wroth at the display of anti-Town behavior

That said, I'm pretty confident in a red flip

[Pine]

I'm voting for Psyche

PE: Umm, no. You still actually haven't read/understood my case on you, and it's getting really tiresome

[Pine]

Everything you've done since I first made my case has been anti-Town. You've done absolutely zero except protest my suspicion of you. Town doesn't get hung up on one detractor, they go out and hunt the fuck out of scum. Notice how I haven't said 'boo' at the votes on me? I don't care about them. I'm not in this game to survive. I'm in it to expose scum

That's the fundamental psychological difference that bad scum players don't get. When you spend your time obsessing about yourself, your image, and removing threats against yourself, you give away the fact that you don't have to spend all your time worrying about the harder task (finding scum)

[Pine]

Look, I'm not on your case. Everyone starts somewhere. You just seem to refuse to actually read my points against you.

I'm not saying you're a bad person or player for what you're doing. Just new

[Pine]

Unvote
Vote: Peregrine V

Well, the lynch I want isn't going through, I'll compromise for my second pick

Skybird, I've been having nagging gut feelings all day suggesting that you might be newTown with a really, really scummy-looking playstyle. Let's get a claim from PV, then lynch him

PV, you're at L-1 with lots of support for a hammer, claim and let's move on

[Pine]

Tsk. Eagerness to curry favor is a mark against

[Pine]

Tsk. Eagerness to curry favor is a mark against

I don't follow. I asked someone to explain their thought process on a vote decision I really hated.

Not you, Skybird

I threw out the "maybe I was wrong" (which was for reals) and offered the opportunity to sheep me. Skybird jumped at it without any of her own thoughts behind the move. Leaping at a proffered lifeline when they're not actually in immediate danger is a pretty scummy thing to do. That throws my day of doubt into question, and moves Skybird right back into the scum column

[Pine]

Hunh. Well, Gameplay wasn't a Godfather

I'd like to vote Psyche right now, but I think we need to run some numbers. Are we in LyLo?

[Pine]

Also, slight V/LA until Tuesday morning

[Pine]

Well, SK killed Gameplay because he or she was thinking Godfather

No idea why notscience was killed. Maybe scum looking for SK? Maybe a Townie unlikely to be protected? Maybe just a Townie they thought wouldn't eat a lynch?

I still want my Psyche lynch

7 left alive, probably 2 Mafia and 1 SK. If we mislynch and there are two Townie kills, Mafia wins

[Pine]

In post 720, Majiffy stated that he thought that day's lynch should be either Aero, Psyche, or Tree. Would Majiffy be so bold as to list all his scum buddies in one post?

I would think a more likely option would be a "mislynch fodder, bus, SK hunting" combo.

This is a pretty reasonable point. The Skybird quote makes me wonder AGAIN whether I've got her wrong. If I were scum, I'd typically list one bus in a set of three, though that's hardly a general rule

Oh right, Aero flipped scum.

He was lynched before I joined.

Townslip? Or intentional Townslip?

[Pine]

My limited access turned into no access unexpectedly, then went much longer than anticipated. I'm back online and will be trying to get current over the next 24 hours. Please be patient, I have several fast-moving games to catch up to.

Note to self: 4839

[Pine]

I'm caught up now

Quite frankly, I don't care for anything at all that's been said since my absence. It looks like treading water at best, second-guessing at middle, off-task at worst.

Vote: Psyche

House 4851 is directly on point. Town!Psyche's play was a clear refutation of the Mason claim, and his subsequent waffling just screams scum to me. Marquis is a possible partner, as the point regarding claimed Masons surviving this long is solid. Skybird...ugh I dunno. Newbies to this site always look scummy to me

Psyche lynch. A Psyche scumflip causes us to look into Marquis

Better yet:

Hey, Serial Killer - Mafia's gotta die for you to win. Your best chance, if Psyche flips scum, is to stab Marquis. If that eliminates the scumteam, you've got a golden opportunity for an SK win, because we have no clue who you are

[Pine]

Actually, Psyche flipping Town would suggest Marquis!Town. I don't see scum faking Masons with a Townie. High risk low reward

I thought that was implied as the inverse of my statement. Also, pretty sure I said as much the previous day, after the fakeclaimery was revealed

[Pine]

Wait...7-day day phase? No bueno

Mod - there have been several absences, V/LAs, and replacements pending. 7 days is not enough. Please extend the deadline. We're finally getting some life back in this.

I feel Marquis is a mistake at this time.

Psyche needs to be our lynch

[Pine]

Cool story bro

I notice you haven't done any scumhunting in like a month

[Pine]

Nothing...I said "at this time"

Psyche's flip will inform whether Marquis is a scum buddy or dumbass town

[Pine]

Ergo, Marquis is a bad choice right now, when we can get a lot more info from lynching a scummier player

[Pine]

Actually, Psyche flipping Town would suggest Marquis!Town. I don't see scum faking Masons with a Townie. High risk low reward

I thought that was implied as the inverse of my statement. Also, pretty sure I said as much the previous day, after the fakeclaimery was revealed

Did you not read this post?

[Pine]

I mean seriously, it was in response to your own question

[Pine]

So fine, you disagree. That doesn't mean that you can selectively quote me in big letters to twist my words into saying things I didn't mean.

Get back on track

Psyche lynch

[Pine]

L-1

Need a deadline hammer

[Pine]

Umm no. You're completely discounting the possibility of a Psyche-Marquis team. They'd have no incentive to kill one another.

[Pine]

You have a point regarding the SK, I suppose that didn't occur to me when I fired off a phone post.

You do not have a point in practically forcing us into a no lynch

[Pine]

If Town loses because of this no-lynch, blame falls squarely on reinoe (unless he's Godfather, then bravo). There's a chance that Psyche is a mislynch, but choosing to allow a no lynch is downright anti-Town

[Pine]

at the less than subtle implication of Godfather.

Actually, it's not an implication that you are. I rather think you're Town. I'd initially typed that as "unless he's scum, in which case good job" (or however I phrased it), then realized that if you're scum playing well enough that I don't suspect you at all, it's doubly impressive that you managed to bait the cop inno and set the game on easy mode.

[Pine]

I have never been a fan of massclaim. It's really only a solid choice in open, theme, or where there's a known gimmick. Here, the easy thing for scum would be to just claim VT. Their only risk is if there's a Watcher or Tracker that's been quiet and got lucky

[Pine]

Eh, shadow is just preempting the fact that he's also in the running should Psyche flip Town. He's wrong, and most of you aren't going to bite on his case, so I don't give a fuck

[Pine]

Based on...?

[Pine]

Oh, Aero was scum. Hmm. Yes, not implausible to have a two-scum neighborhood, but unlikely.

[Pine]

Hmm. I hesitate to conclude that mafia is eliminated, four plus SK were the numbers that made sense to me, especially with all the Town power we've seen

No, I think it's far more likely scum shot a BP SK, or that whatever a Town Shield is protected someone

[Pine]

I have a very long post prepared that I composed during the night phase, but it's on my tablet and I'm phone posting

[Pine]

Here's the rambling analysis I did overNight:

177 analysis based on flipped scum votes

--Psyche--
-Day 1-
Reinoe alive (RVS/policy)
Majiffy scum (bus)
Reinoe alive (srs)
Psyche selfvote
Reinoe alive (at this point only votes on scum and Reinoe, Reinoe pretty much confTown now)
Majiffy scum (Pushing Reinoe lynch while voting here. That's the sort of thing I do sometimes; push a scumbuddy and a townie, then abandon the bus when the Townie wagon gathers steam)
(First request for replacement)
Aeronaut scum
Notscience town (proposed as compromise lynch)
Texcat town
Oka town
Oka town
Texcat town
Aegor town
Texcat town
-Day 2-
Aeronaut scum (Sole vote of D2, hammer)
-Day 3-
(Second discussion of replacing out)
Peregrine V town (sole vote of D3)
-Day 4-
Majiffy scum
(Third replacement threat at least)
(Mason fakeclaim revealed, Psyche obvscum)
-Day 5-
(Further replacement discussion)
Shaddowez alive (Final post, shadow might be clear for this? Is Psyche SK hunting here? Bad time for a bus)

Thoughts: Apparently adherent of the school of thought where you make one big bus push, and don't pursue it too aggressively. Also active lurking a lot, hiding behind fake replacement requests. Reinoe probably not Godfather b/c of voting pattern on D1

---------
--Aeronaut--
-Day 1-
Aegor town (RVS)
Elyse town
Okapoka town
Texcat town
***Full reads list post 959*** (Townreads are deadTown and tree/Marquis, scumleans are aliveReinoe, scumMajiffy, and deadTown, lynch pool are all deadTown)
Tree/Marquis alive (wasn't he just a town read?)
***Strong scumslip push on notscienceTown while voting tree/Marquis. Doubting Aeroscum would have declined a perfect opportunity to move vote off of scumbuddy. Tree/Marquis Town? Says later he wants chain lynch tree-notscience, reinforces this point. Could easily chain lynch in reverse order***
Notscience town
Okapoka town
(Gunsmith claim)
(Okapokatown claim, does not unvote)
-Day 2-
(Claims no gun for Titus, gets hyperlynched)

Thoughts: Appears not to be a fan of bussing. Never voted a known scumbuddy, only living vote is tree/Marquis. This may be evidence of MarquisTown. Stated scumlean against Reinoe, but Reinoe probTown b/c Titus and Psyche

---------

--Majiffy--
-Day 1-
Tree/Marquis alive (out of RVS, no reason given. Follows up with push on Tree)
***Full reads list post 547*** (Alina/House, but posits scum if multiball-->Suspects as SK? Remaining Townreads are deadTown. Scum reads are tree/Marquis, scumAero, scumPsyche, and TownTn. Unless bussing is Majiffy's absolute bread and butter, is he going to bus all three of his buddies? Nah)
(Pushes tree/Marquis for a quite prolonged time, occasionally mentions Psyche/Aeronaut as chain lynch possibilities)
Aero scum (here's the bus)
***Posts 1453 & 1454: "Willing to wagon anyone out of {Tree, Psyche, Aero}" "Reinoe, alina[/House], T S O, notscience, Shaddowez, Elyse" = conf Town.*** (Interesting, especially as a bunch made it this far. Not sure how to interpret this. Further evidence of Tree/Marquis Town. Not seeing Majiffy listing all of his buddies, and only buddies, as lynchbait)
Tree/Marquis alive
Titus town
Tree/Marquis alive
-Day 2-
Marquis alive (Only vote on a short day, didn't participate in Hyperlynch of buddy despite frequent D1 allegations against Aero. Tells us that Majiffy busses, but doesn't like to follow through unless he has to)
-Day 3-
Psyche scum (Flips from full game case on Tree/Marquis to bus)
-Day 4-
Mirhawk (While pushing fakeMasons to be sorted)
OkaPoka (L-1)
--Stabbed Night 4--

Thoughts: I think Scumjiffy's strategy here consisted of light bussing combined with tunneling on Tree/Marquis. The vast majority of his votes and substantive posts revolve around Tree/Marquis, Aero, and Psyche, though he only ever goes after Town and Tree/Marquis in a concerted manner. I'm not seeing the logic in solely focusing on scumbuddies, so this is additional evidence of TownMarquis

Notes
marquis/titus-cop/pv/texcat
tn5421/aero/gameplay/skybird
Mirhawk-tracker/Aegor-bodyguard/Oka-doc/Shadowez

Summary

: Pretty much everything above is groupscum hunting. If I said probTown or similar, what I'm really saying is "not groupscum." Reinoe gets a pass here because of Titus and Psyche's behavior, Skybird I'm inclined to give a pass because I'm doubting multimafia in one neighborhood, Marquis cleared for several good reasons.

Remaining mafia options:
Pine no
Reinoe no
House maybe?
Shaddowez maybe? Psyche's last post
Skybird scummy, but unlikely to have two mafia in one neighborhood
Marquis no

=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=

Okay, now that we've thoroughly analyzed the Mafia options, let's look at SK options.

Quite frankly, there's incredibly little to go on. The best we have is "who was scum going after?" Scum has really gone after Tree/Marquis hard, but in question whether Tree would gambit so recklessly as SK, or why Marquis would take the huge risk of a fakeMason claim. There's Shaddowez, who Psyche went after late game, but that could be random. Then there's Skybird, who has been scummy without associatives. Reinoe also comes into consideration, as all of the evidence clearing him doesn't apply to Serial Killer (caveat: not all SKs are investigation proof, but with a Tracker as well as Cop, I'm inclined to think SK is BP + either II or ninja). House is probably mafiascum, but oh shit that's goddamn everyone

We should be SK hunting right now, treating the remaining mafiascum as a weak SK, and the SK as a strong one-person scumteam

[Pine]

Very stream of consciousness, I know. Kind of dense, but read the summaries if nothing else

I also did an ISO on Alina and House. I'm not seeing mafiascum there, some of the cases they made against known scum were too genuine

Remaining mafiascum is

most likely

Shadow

SK, if we miss them today, should shoot Shadow

We should not be voting Shadow, we should be ISOing all living players for evidence of SK, which I haven't had time to do

[Pine]

SK is also likely a Neighbor, come to think on it

Just did a quick ISO of Shaddowez, gut reaction is to question the PoE suspicion of him as last mafiascum. Psyche lynch probably would not have gone through without him, and when given a choice between Marquis (who I think the scumteam suspects is the SK) and Psyche, he went for Psyche

Could be Skybird? As a one-member faction getting beat up a bit, Wake might've stepped in

[Pine]

Remaining mafiascum is

most likely

Shadow

SK, if we miss them today, should shoot Shadow

We should not be voting Shadow, we should be ISOing all living players for evidence of SK, which I haven't had time to do

Tell me how it makes sense not voting for scum.

I want some of what you are smoking.

Reason 1

SK is most likely bulletproof

Ergo, if we mislynch, SK can't be NKed, but mafia might be

Reason 2

Mafia is easier to deduce based on interactions

Mafia may be (but probably isn't) eliminated

Ergo, if Mafia is eliminated, all the associative tells are bunk, and that read is wrong anyway

[Pine]

Nnnnno.

First, I'm having second thoughts about Shadow as mafiascum

Second, we need to out in some serious brain time on the identity of the SK

I think we really need to take a long look at who scum have been building cases against. They've been SK hunting all game

[Pine]

SK is, at this stage of the game, just as large a threat to Town as Mafia, with less collective brain time in, no associative tells, no PoE, and probably no chance of being NKed if we fuck up

Today, we hunt the SK

PE: Based on...?

[Pine]

Hmm. Time for mass claim, I think. I am comfortable with going first, and popcorning

[Pine]

Really concerned about Marquis!SK

He's the one the scumteam has been going after for forever

[Pine]

I'm at the tail end of an exhausting 75-80 hour work week, with oral surgery mixed in there just for giggles

I'm not totally sold on Shaddowez. For one thing, he's not defending himself as vigorously as I'd expect

Kind of suspecting House a bit right now

[Pine]

Hmm

That might be an SK fakeclaim. I could see House as our remaining mafiascum, having finally found SK, trying to get him lynched

Hmm

Not willing to abruptly hammer, but this is intent

[Pine]

A lot will depend on flip here. I'm 100% on Marquis not being mafiascum, and I'm somewhat confident Skybird is not mafiascum.

Therefore, if Shaddowez flips SK, House gets the noose

If Shaddowez flips mafia, I'm a bit at square one

If Shaddowez flips Town...we're a little fucked. That'd put us 2:1:1, and only cross shots would keep Town out of Kingmaker position

Is is why I didn't want to rush

[Pine]

Yes, I would be quick on you if we get a Shaddowez SK flip and I survive. Skybird and Marquis are not mafia

[Pine]

Aha...that note of alarm in your writing tells me I'm on the right track

You went from this...

Skybird & Marquis seem to be the odd players out, because I'm sold on Pine!town.

To this...

Although, that play makes perfect sense as the SK setting up to mislynch for the win after killing the last mafia member tonight.

That strikes me as more along your kind of play, I just can't see you fucking up that hard as town.

Really quickly

[Pine]

It's not a fuckup

I've been expecting to be NKed since I replaced in. I am actually quite certain I have solved the game, given a SK flip on Shaddowez. Marquis can't be Mafia, they went after him too persistently for it to be bussing. Skybird isn't Mafia, that would put two scum from the same team in one Neighborhood. Ergo, if Shaddowez flips SK, the remaining Mafioso is House

It's not a fuckup. It's making sure that Town doesn't lose when you NK me

[Pine]

Shaddowez, like all of us, probably thought it was L-1, and was looking to get out of it

[Pine]

Whatever, House. You're the one that rushed that lynch, not me

[Pine]

Well shit

Marquis was Town because flipped scum went after him too hard to plausibly be bussing
Skybird was Town because two mafiascum in the same neighborhood is unbalanced
House was scum because of his push on Shaddowez, his flip on me, willingness to lunch either of you D8, and PoE

I'm pleased with my Town performance. Scum deserved this win, they held it together until the last couple of days, successfully identified and eliminated SK, and, most importantly, chose who to take to endgame

[Pine]

Pine was awesome as town during the time I got to see him play.

He had me cold & had to go.

As we seem to cross paths frequently, do not expect this on the regular. I usually have a very tunnelly town game, which you saw a little with my focus on PV and Skybird. It's rare that I pull out of that tunnel enough to see it for what it is. When I do I usually see clearly.

Interesting note - in your place, I'd definitely have killed one of Skybird or Marquis. While they had several factors making them as close to confirmed Town as possible, I was possibly the softest target. I'd have set up a 1v1 between us and boiled it down to convincing the third. With what was on the table, you played a dicey endgame

VOTE: Marquis (Scum MVP)

This is a kinda jerky thing to say.

It is, but it's kind of true. The unnecessary and unreasonable gambits and general recklessness hurt the Town cause, took House off the table for consideration for far too long, and generally distracted productivity. That said, everyone has off games, and the quoted post is in poor form. Scum came within a hair's breadth of losing, and landslide attitudes are unbecoming

[Pine]

^yes

He was really obvious to the dead thread, but he knew his audience

[Pine]

Neat. I'm in, though I'm rubbish at keeping up in larges until the population is reduced to a reasonable number. Maybe impose a wisdom of the crowds rule to hedge out players known for postspamming. They tend to kill large games

[Pine]

Pre/in

Neat. I'm in, though I'm rubbish at keeping up in larges until the population is reduced to a reasonable number. Maybe impose a wisdom of the crowds rule to hedge out players known for postspamming. They tend to kill large games

I've already /pre-inned. :p

Stalker

[Pine]

Girls, girls, you're all pretty

How about talking about ways to improve the setup instead of it's flaws?

Maybe in some other thread?

[Pine]

Scum outing each other on lynch is a good point.

Aww, I'm lynched. We shot at House last night and Notty two nights ago, neither died. Lynch dem scum bastids