Advance Wars UPick!--Game Over..?

[Konowa]

Yup

[Konowa]

You guys are assholes for 12 pages in 24 hours. Anniversary weekend so I'll try and stay up to date.

[Konowa]

If I realized this was going to be a neighbor game I probably wouldn't have /in'ned.

[Konowa]

So, ffery's Town and I'm probably just going to vote who she tells me to vote until further notice.

[Konowa]

Saki's actually likely Scum.

[Konowa]

Just going to sheep for the time being.

Vote: Varsoon

[Konowa]

Oh, BPC?? asked me why Saki was Scum?
Investment.

[Konowa]

Who's reply to you? Could you link the post purty please?

[Konowa]

What are your thoughts about his reply to me on the topic of investment?

I just found the post in question. I didn't read the entire post, but just up to where he had a talk with people.

Based on that, he's null, I suppose.

[Konowa]

OMG konowa is using pronouns! Take away his vote!

That is probably the most frustratingly, fun game I have ever played even factoring in that we lost to Nacho's puppyeyes.

[Konowa]

What replacement tell?

[Konowa]

The thing with Mara's tell for me is that she isn't analyzing any of the post in question, or even questioning others whether the catchup post is invalid in any way. She's applying a blanket tell but not doing any of the legwork.

[Konowa]

SSK's vote is incredibly lazy, I wouldn't call it Scum though.

Vote: Ms Marangal

[Konowa]

Ceph being Town is the only thing I'm absolutely certain of.
STD I think is Town - He actively was trying to figure out the Varsoon situation Yesterday
SMP - I really don't remember any of his posts?

[Konowa]

They're both pretty Town, but if I had to rank them Ceph then ffery.

[Konowa]

So you're reading the game, but still not really trying to do anything? What do you want to do?

The game started at a wrong time for me and I'm still trying to find the motivation to -really- read that clusterfuck of D1.

[Konowa]

I would wager the Cabd read is being discussed in the neighborhood, but that's just my two cents so I really don't see the point in anything you're saying Saki. I don't see how this line of questioning will give you anything alignment indicative on orc.

[Konowa]

I kind of think Mara is Town after #1475. I don't see Scum, who it appears a number of players are waiting on right now, coming in and softing something hard like that in what I tend to believe is a power heavy game.

unvote;
Vote: LynxKuroneko

[Konowa]

what? power heavy game means it's easier to get away with a PR soft...

I don't know? There have been numerous softs already and this has been the most blatant of them. For Scum to come and say "Something happened to you, you have to think I'm Town now" is pretty outlandish to win over one person when the amount of PRs floating around could implicate her any other way as Scum.

I just think it's too brazen for Scum.

[Konowa]

#1513 is all over the place. Who is her that you suspect to be Scum?

I have rethought my orci read and I suggest we get her on the lynch wagon today. That's enough said as the reasons could prove useful to the scum. I suspect her of being scum as well which I'll explain later after briefly saying my reads.Town:Brian, Cabd and Albert B. Rampage, Orci and Mara. I'm pretty sure on these and I'm only listing those of confident in.

[Konowa]

mara's MO as caught and pressured scum is to fakeclaim. i could give you many examples of this, and i will if you think it necessary.

knowing that, do you still think it's too brazen for scum?

I don't know, the play as Scum is completely sub-optimal right now.

[Konowa]

I expect more out of Scum in general, I suppose.

[Konowa]

The votes on Lynx are interesting.

Define interesting.

[Konowa]

Unless you want me to reveal potential invesigative roles, then no.I don't trust them yet fully however they are what I have at the moment, reads based off play are being developed.

Then explain how you went from posting a Mara case in 24 hours to her being Town?

What Cephrir said as well.

Do you disagree with votes on Lynx? Who are the other scum targets that you think deserve votes?

[Konowa]

wgeurts will you clean up #1513?

[Konowa]

STD, read #1556.

[Konowa]

I'm kind of doubting the cop claim as is.

Lynx, you view the votes on you as lurker votes?

[Konowa]

And why are people insisting I joined Varsoon's wagon? Is my name on there without my knowledge or something?

Ugh? I don't think anyone is doing this? It's the surety of your post [Why isn't Varsoon lynched yet?] before you disappeared.

My vote on you was mainly for your vote on Mara Today.

[Konowa]

Ugh? Konowa, I'll link those posts when I find them. Its two different players stating that I was ON the wagon, when I never voted for Varsoon. Voting and saying "I'm sold" are two different things, especially considering that was 20 pages before the hammer. Trying to make me sound scummy using intangible facts is just gross. And I can understand hating my for my Mara post, though after reading through (and seeing orc's case against her) I'm curious about her too.

I beg to differ. Saying "Why isn't he [Varsoon] lynched yet?" not followed with a vote just looks like fuel to fire.

@orc, it doesn't feel right because it seems like unnecessary manipulation so early, with so many potential PR's floating around (I'm sure scum has more than one good PR in a game of this size). I'm surprised you're questioning me about that single thing and ignoring the fact that I'm using someone else's case against you. Ah, well.

This is just trying to argue loose ends. In a player list this capable, saying that a PR could not think for themselves is kind of silly.

[Konowa]

unvote;
Vote: Ms Marangal

[Konowa]

There's not much to explain. Even with Mara being under the influence the entire rant didn't seem genuine to me. I absolutely thought Mara was going to be lynched and absolutely wanted two stars heading into N2 so I can use my COp again.

unvote;
Vote: LynxKuroneko

[Konowa]

I didn't cop you, orcinus. I'm not willing to divulge any more.

I admit I have played like crap thus far. I feel like I've discussed more, which still isn't substantial, in my neighbor thread than here and I think that is by design on my part.

[Konowa]

Why Saki?

[Konowa]

All I see with his vote on me is someone who's trying to pick on the player who hasn't posted much.

This persecuted status doesn't really ring Town given that's there's a number of players, including myself, who hasn't posted all that much.

[Konowa]

Neo Black Hole is Scum.
Black Hole is compromised of {SSK, ABR, Cephrir, ffery, orcinus}.

I want to think HI is Town based on the last post.

[Konowa]

I guess I should try and get some sort of where my thoughts are in regards to everyone so far.

Some variation of a Town read/Not willing to lynch

gogurt
Cephrir
STD
ffery
SSK
Hostile Intent
Brian
Bookitty
orcinus
notscience

No Clue/Want to Think Town

honey bee
Cabd
ABR

Everyone Else/Willing to lynch

Lynx
flubber
BPC
SMP
Cheetory
Saki

[Konowa]

I think being aloof is more of a recent thing. Real life? Burnt out? Combination of both?

Runecast Mafia - Town
Muskoka Murder Mystery - Scum
Alice in Wonderland - Scum
Through the Looking Glass - Town

Are some recent games from both alignments where I was pretty active and doing things as both alignments.

I disagree that the reason for Lynx votes, or that he is even a viable lynch, is because he is a lurkshit. The question regarding Varsoon D1, the vote on Mara D2 showing that he is aware of the gamestate were reasons for my vote initially. Nothing that he said after being called out really swayed me to think he was Town. He played in Runecast as well and think his passive nature is completely different from what I encountered there. Could it be because it was his first large and he wasn't ready? Maybe. I think it's more likely that he's Scum, I don't know if he has ever been Scum?? maybe I'll check, and he doesn't feel comfortable trying to make cases without previous knowledge showing through.

[Konowa]

ffery, how am I scaring you?

[Konowa]

I think part of my issue is that I'm Townreading most of the stronger players and that is putting everyone else into my willing to lynch pile and I know I'm probably wrong but I don't know who I'm wrong about.

[Konowa]

Like, my list in #2362 is too easy, and I know that.

[Konowa]

Some variation of a Town read/Not willing to lynch

gogurt
Cephrir
STD
ffery
SSK
Hostile Intent
Brian
Bookitty
orcinus
notscience

Of this list, only STD and notty give me flights of paranoia.

[Konowa]

VOTE: dedicated scribe

I'm vigging Konowa tonight.

Have fun with that.

[Konowa]

notsci's not going anywhere, no worries ffery.

[Konowa]

...

[Konowa]

Well, there's an obvious solution to this entire thing that I don't want to say.

Outside that too, Ceph. Just of the roles that we know.

[Konowa]

So maybe I'm not wrong with my reads list? That would make me feel a lot better.

[Konowa]

Does that surprise you, ffery? There is a reason I was going to blanket sheep you D1 after all.

It really wasn't scumreads either. It was more everyone here is pretty Town and I feel pretty strong about this so I'm okay with lynching any of these because I either don't have a read on them or I have a marginal scumread on them.

[Konowa]

He hammered already.

[Konowa]

Ugh.

Feel like scum is in the pile of players who called Lynx a bad lynch because he's a policy/lurkshit/whatever.
orci/SSK/someone else?
I've been awful at finding motivation to go back and read and I'm just trying to remember things off the top of my head right now.

Brian, gogurt had an "AHA gotcha" moment Yesterday to something I said (confusing COp with cop) that felt terribly genuine. It's pretty light, but with the way I'm sorting this game I wouldn't support a lynch on him Today.

[Konowa]

Thanks, Boo.

Vote: MafiaSSK

[Konowa]

#2391 reads differently to me.

[Konowa]

I was replying to orcinus, ffery.
I'm having doubts about the amnesic cop on top of that.

[Konowa]

Yes.

[Konowa]

secondary power thing?

[Konowa]

So why not shoot SSK because the Cephrir/orcinus/ffery is called something else now?

[Konowa]

Oh wait, you can't.

[Konowa]

That too.
Have you thought about SSK?

[Konowa]

Given that there's a 1/4 chance of Cephrir killing himself, I don't see why it isn't plausible.

[Konowa]

i'm going to guess redirect shenanigans.

I forgot I wanted to ask about this.

Why is this your assumption?

[Konowa]

In what way?

I would also lynch ABR, just throwing that out there.

[Konowa]

What do you think of no kill N1, ABR's play late D2, and Ceph's kill N2?

[Konowa]

When, orcinus?

[Konowa]

You think Albert was trying to redirect town power?

This is a current theory, yes.

[Konowa]

What do you think of no kill N1, ABR's play late D2, and Ceph's kill N2?

You think something about the combination of these three things. Once you get your answer, I'd like to know what you think.

Was this addressed at me, ffery?

[Konowa]

So while we wait on that, ffery I don't think the Cephrir kill was bizarre in any fashion. I am of the belief that ABR was attempting to redirect town power away from Ceph, who Town'd pretty hard D1. There's a possibility that Lynx knew that Cephrir was a dayvig given the timing of everything. So ABR's play late D2 makes zero sense from a Town perspective given everything.

[Konowa]

Some variation of a Town read/Not willing to lynch

gogurt
STD
ffery
Hostile Intent
Brian
Bookitty
notscience
honey bee
Cabd

No Clue/Want to Think Town

orcinus
SMP

Everyone Else/Willing to lynch

ABR
SSK
flubber
BPC
Saki

Updated list and stuff to show thoughts.

[Konowa]

Cephrir was pretty much confirmed Town.

[Konowa]

Yeah, he's there because I really don't remember anything that he has said so far.

Plus Canadian.

[Konowa]

In what ways? There might be a smidge of confbias in my analysis because ~stuff~, but I'm pretty okay with that.

I don't think I've been this confident/happy/paranoid about my reads all at the same time. It's kind of weird.

[Konowa]

STD, last time we talked you said Saki was likely Scum. Let me find it.

[Konowa]

I believe that scum is mostly contained in this large swath of people, some of them I just need to see more posts from.

1. wgeurts
2. LynxKuroneko
3. Flubbernugget
6. BipolarChemist
7. fferyllt
8. MafiaSSK
13. SMP
15. Cheetory6
17. Bookitty
19. Saki
20. Konowa
21. notscience

From that list, the least likely to be scum:
1. wgeurts
15. Cheetory6
21. notscience

The ones I think most likely to be scum:
13. SMP
17. Bookitty
19. Saki

Why Saki?

It was serious, Saki, you put more effort into the pre-game than I've seen you put into a game (Cave Story for instance).

[Konowa]

orcinus is probably the read I'm most waffly on at the moment due to a number of things. He's falling into the category of "hope he gets NKed/we finish the game before I need to attempt to read him" category.

ffery, thoughts on SSK?

[Konowa]

I think the question was rhetorical? Probably trying to figure out gogurt's motivation?

[Konowa]

Two things.

1) I don't see a deadline for Today?
2) I don't want to see this neighborhood claim become a distraction.

[Konowa]

BPC is the only person from Green Earth, correct?

[Konowa]

Cool.

Yellow Comet consists of myself (Grimm) and Bookitty (Sonja).

[Konowa]

So I went back and looked at SMP because for some reason I had him as maybe Town due to his flubber push, and I altogether forgot about the entire "Lynx votes are interesting". Put SMP in my willing to lynch pile and remove BPC from there. Since I'm actually in a reread mood I'll probably go back and look at flubber in a second.

[Konowa]

:0

Anyways, I am thinking abr is a lynch for a different day. Some of the connection tells would be stronger with flips and I don't want to do the scum favors if abr does turn out town. I am leaning towards flubber but I haven't reread smp knowing what I know now. His connections with lynx I think are pretty bad.

What do you think of SSK, Honey?

Think order of preference at this point is SSK -> SMP -> ABR

[Konowa]

#1538 - SMP calls Lynx votes interesting.
#1556 - When questioned, SMP says that Lynx votes are seemingly out of the blue. That with other Scum targets out there he is surprised at a four person wagon.
#2447 - The soft defense of Lynx. The implication that someone as of VC 2.8 is Scum hoping on early.

I'm actually starting to lean more towards wanting to lynch SMP now that I right all of that out.

[Konowa]

I'm leaning town on BPC and Saki

If BPC was in a neighborhood of two, they have to fake having conversation in their neighborhood. There's no guarantee one dies before the other and is able to "sell out" their buddy.

Saki I forgot why but there was a reason. I was surprised. If necessary I can probably remember it.

orcinus, this is why BPC is likely Town given his recruit into hood ability. Do you disagree with that?

[Konowa]

Alright, so where were we?

orcinus, have you said who you would want to lynch Today yet?

[Konowa]

Why those two? Why classify them as boring?

What do you think of SMP?

Bookitty is pretty Town.

[Konowa]

fery and i think smp to be town

Go into this given that we know Lynx is Scum and SMP's ctrl-f of Lynx. ffery could answer as well if she likes.

[Konowa]

Yeah, definitely on different wavelengths.

I didn't see the original Lynx wagon as random.

[Konowa]

Going back to the neighborhood thing, I'm not discounting the possibility of an all-scum neighborhood. Do you think anyone here might fit that profile?

Calling that into question would mean either BPC is Scum, which I doubt at this point.

Or Bookitty and I are Scum.

[Konowa]

Oh, or Honey bee, Hostile Intent, and Saki.

[Konowa]

Can you give a brief rundown of why Bookitty is less than Town? I realize it's probably spread throughout your posts, but getting it all into one post would be nice.
Oh, why you have no idea on ffery and I as well.

[Konowa]

Someone tell me I'm just being paranoid about orcinus.

[Konowa]

I really don't want to get into purging neighborhoods for the sake of purging neighborhoods.

[Konowa]

Didn't STD receive that message N1?

[Konowa]

STD got a message from hawke do, I'm really confused.

Oh, wait. I think I get it now?

[Konowa]

Vote: Saki

[Konowa]

Just some updates.

Green Earth

BPC - Drake

Lynx - Eagle

Yellow Comet

Konowa - Grimm
Bookitty - Sonja

Rejects

Otherworlders

Notty - Penny

SMP - Brenner
Flubber - Isabella

Chewtoy - Greyfield

Black Hole

Albert - Sturm

SSK - Hawke

Varsoon - Jugger

Orange Star

Honeybee - Hachi
Hostile Intent - Sami

Saki - Jake

Bolt Guard

Orci - Von Bolt
Ffery - Lash

Ceph - Flak

Blue Moon

Cabd - Colin
Brian - Sasha

STD - Olaf

[Konowa]

Follow through on that orcinus?

[Konowa]

The whole you lost a star thing from Mara N1?

[Konowa]

I forgot gogurts in the Blue Moon group, by the way.

[Konowa]

God, I feel amazing.

[Konowa]

I was Grimm. Each Night I had to target someone. Whatever targeted one of us targeted both of us. My COpower was that we were both bulletproof as well.

Targeted Ceph N1, notscience N2 and N3.

[Konowa]

Because Saki was going to be lynched and ABR claimed Scum.
I guess STD had to lynch one of those two? and so was given a victory as a lyncher.

[Konowa]

Well, Saki using his power actually cost Scum the game.

[Konowa]

Yeah, I guess it just sped up the process.

[Konowa]

So Saki, you seem pretty invested in this game.

Since you're here, ffery. In case you didn't figure it out, this post was what made me Townread you so hard.

[Konowa]

I forgot who I submitted. I think I told Nati something like all these names look cool.

[Konowa]

Anyways, the biggest problem with the setup was Konowa's role. In an earlier iteration, the star system didn't gain stars passively--it gained them by people targeting each other with night actions(that setup also had every player have a targeted ability)--so it made sense to have at 2-stars. When the system changed, this one 'fell through the cracks' as it were.

I did have some early trepidation about the fact that I could bulletproof two players as long as I was on the lynch wagon.