Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[Fro99er]

VOTE: Toolenduso

Just sheeping my strongest townreads at this point

[Lapsa]

And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.
Genesis 1:3

[toolenduso]

And Zor, I think you were right about Tool when you said "or giving the appearance of doing work".

This is legitimately hilarious coming from you.

Look, if y'all are going to lynch me then fine. I've come to terms with that. I've got my twilight post written up for you. But for the love of god stop listening to Frogger after this. If he's town then he is far too easily swayed and far too distracted by shallow analysis to have so many people assess him as some kind of scumhunting master.

Also, Shinobi had by far the worst-looking vote on my flashwagon. And since I refuse to believe that there were no scum on that flashwagon, I think Shinobi would be a pretty good place to start tomorrow.

I'm going to work on the off-wagon analysis.

[toolenduso]

@Mod: I'm assuming that the lynched player is allowed to discuss their thoughts about the game in twilight?

[Fro99er]

Tool

What is your read on Bella?

[Fro99er]

for the love of god stop listening to Frogger after this.

This is a good idea (not sarcasm)

[Plotinus]

Finally finishing slowdigesting thor’s ISO and I noticed this statement

Oh, and whoever was sheeping the BBT case of "Thor has no reads" (I do believe that was the shining town beacon of Mathdino) feel free to leap in here and back him up

and I wanted to clarify that my case on you isn’t “Thor has no reads”; I can indeed tell from your ISO who you are townleaning, who you are scumleaning, etc. What I can’t tell from it is why. So many words and when I try to boil it down it’s a long tunnel on mathdino over “something about rvs” and a long tunnel on zoronos over “lacking expected amounts of town paranoia (sheeped from cb) + him defending mathdino”. And the argument with BBT is ridiculously nitpicky about what constitutes an interaction (though i think both of them are being nitpicky at the moment).

But what worries me more than that is that your reads are very static, with the possible exception of BBT. At times you seem to be scumleaning BBT and at other times you seem to be townleaning him. Also kind of frogger since you seemed to be townleaning him for the most part with just a few things you didn’t like from him (that didn’t otherwise affect your read). No matter who I look at, your interactions are either all positive sorts of interactions (townreading, sheeping, agreeing, defending, backing them up) or all negative sorts of interactions (attacking, tunnelling, wagon driving, etc.).

Oh, finally in post 886 his scumlean on tool turns into a town lean, pretty abruptly. so count that as a read that changed.
And then in 908 he says bella’s slot is slightly less scummy due to activitylevels but it doesn’t look like much of a change.

One of the main things I know how to look for is organically changing reads and I’m not seeing any of that here.

Spoiler: thor’s static reads

abuse -455 =520 =533 +553 +576 =610 =611 +613 =672 +760 =891

bbt =185 =187 -568 -?570 -?572 -?576 -?579 -?610 +613 -?639 =644 =645 -?664 -665 =667 =672 -673 =674 -762 -763 =765 =806 -860 -886 -888 -891 -893 -894 =895 =897 -899 -902 =903 -904

cb =270 =279 +455 +523 =572 +613 =626 =672 =713 =760 =765 =954

bella -305 -614 =617 =672 +901 -908 -934 -949

frogger =20 +23 +26 +27 =136 =137 +143 +145 +167 =169 =171 -?=282 -?=305 =306 =307 -=316 =324 =382 =464 +521 +523 =524 =549 =553 =566 +613 =620 =672 +760 +934 =949 +950 =1040

lapsa +93 +145 =169 =171 =260 =303 =305 =306 =307 =324 =455 =549 =572 =576 =579 =610 =610 -=613 -=620 =631 =635 =672 =860

persivul v6 =20 -23 -27 -93 -136 -137 -143 -145 -167 -169 -171 -208 -260 -270 -279 -303 -305 -306 -307 -316 -324 u455 -464 -?520 -533 -549 =550 -566 -568 =570 =572 -576 -610 -613 -618 =672 -674 -760 =+?763 -766 -806 -807 -819 =928 =929 -930 -934 -943

plotinus +279 +282 +305 +316 +382 +464 +521 +613 =661 =664 =672 =-?679 +713 -?713 =860 =891 =895 +901

shinobi =260 =377 =611 +613 =672 =934 -?=1040

texcat +553 =610 =613 =672 =934 -?=1040

toolenduso -23 -26 =28 =137 =464 =610 =613 =672 =677 =679 =760 =765 -806 =807 =819 =860 +886 +928 +930 +933 +1040

zoronos =93 =136 =137 -143 =145 =167 =168 -?169 -208 -209 =211 -260 -270 -279 -316 -?324 =385 -v455 -520 -523 -533 -549 -550 -553 -566 -568 -570 -572 -576 -579 -613 -618 -626 -661 -664 =680 =713 -760 -762 =765 -766 -769 -806 -807 -819 -860 -901 -928 -943 -949 =950 -954 =1040

key: ignore the = signs, those are neutral interactions that could happen with either a town read or a scum read. look at how, for the most part, for most players, if he has a - in his early interactions, he doesn’t have any +s with that player later, or only one or two before going back to minuses, and the same in reverse. his townreads stay townread, his scumreads stay scumread, very very little changing of the mind. This is way too consistent.

So I guess what I meant by “lack of stances” is “lack of stances that I can understand” or “lack of nonnitpicky stances” + all his reads are stale.

Also, I sort of feel like he spends too much time talking about himself.

[toolenduso]

Yes. Definite bias in this because you are approaching this with a much harsher view of my motivations than anyone else's:

I agree this is an issue, and I agree it's an issue he's doing it - but didn't you LITERALLY just get done telling me you were okay with this when Zor did it and also that you do it yourself?

982

I don't have a post #982, and I'm not sure where in my posting I said this. But to clarify, I wasn't saying persivul was necessarily scum because of the bias -- though that is certainly one explanation for it. Rather I saw it and realized that he was pretty much going to come out with a scumread on me at the end of his analysis no matter what. So I pointed it out in the hopes that if he's town he can do some self-assessment before he finds meaning where it doesn't exist in more of my posts. And if he's scum then it's there for others to see the flawed thought process that led to my lynch.

What is your read on Bella?

I honestly haven't had a whole lot of time to look at that slot amid the other stuff I've been doing with this game. I will say that she, among the people voting on my flashwagon, had a legitimate excuse. Which I will expand on in a bit when I get to my wagon analysis post.

[Bellaphant]

Plot, you should talk more. I'm wondering if some of my issues with your read are 'other things'. Let me have a look at your list in more depth (obviously I've not checked every interaction, but a couple from each to make sure Plot isn't just lying).

So, looking at Plot's list in summary:
I'm also gonna compare with Thor's first interaction, to see if the early interactions are that consistent.

Abuse: -1, =6, +4 (towny null?) (first interaction -) (latest interaction = null)
BBT:-20, =12, +1 and ?7 (this is very odd) (first interaction =/null) (last interaction -)
cb: -0, =9, +2 (towny null?) (first interaction =/null) (last interaction = null)
bella: -5, =2, +1 (scummy null?) (first interaction -) (last interaction -)
Frog: -0, =20, +12 (town) (first interaction = null) (last interaction =)
lapsa: -2, =22, +2 (really null?) (first interaction +) (last interaction =)
Pers: -39!, =6, +2 (so scum) (first interaction -) (last interaction -)
Plot: -2, =8, 10 (null-town) (first interaction +) (last interaction +)
shin: -0, =6, +1 (super null) (first interaction null =) (last interaction =)
tex: -0, =5, +1 (super null) (first interaction +) (last interaction =)
tool: -3, =13, +5 (nullish) (first interaction -1) (last interaction +)
zor: -39, =11, +0 (super scum) (first interaction =) (last interaction =)


What's interesting to me is the reads with more = signs, especially when they don't really make sense, like lapsa. The BBT interactions are really inconsistant, one of the few that is. Plot's idea about early interactions seems to bear out over all when you look at the changes over time: only tool's interactions actually change. That's really strange.

[toolenduso]

I will say that I had a townlean on Bella's predecessor (CD), and Bella hasn't done anything to erase that.

[toolenduso]

Bella, I have no idea how to read your readslist there but it seems to say that you found Zor far more scummier than me to begin with, so if that's the case then why did you go for my wagon instead of Zor's?

[Plotinus]

The =s are the ones I don’t really know how to categorise, some of them are defending himself against another player but not making it clear in that post that he is scum/townreading them. other times it’s just that he mentions them in passing, or he lists the people he has interacted with several times for BBT but since it’s just a list of names without reads attached they get marked as =. Outright stating that someone is a null read gets marked with = as well. nullscum gets marked -= and nulltown gets marked +=. v is vote u is unvote. +- is always interesting and so is +?-? but i don’t think he had many of those. I might need to start using more symbols.

The questionmarks are when I couldn’t tell if an interaction is a scumreading sort of interaction or a townreading sort of interaction. With BBT the reason i marked so many as questionmark is because they lookedl ike scumreading sorts of interactions but then in the first + he says that he doesn’t think scum BBT would pick a fight with him so BBT is probably town and then they go back to fighting and it looks like scumreading interactions again but who knows.

The critical points are usually the first + after a string of - or visa versa, the changing points that show that something happened in there to make it clear.

Talking more might help but i’ve been trying to avoid having more meltdowns in thread but talking is working right now so let’s keep doing it.

My main impression of Thor’s ISO is that it’s all so nitpicky, because if his issue with mathdino-now-persivul isn’t just RVS then it’s not clear what his issue is and it’s page 46 so why isn’t there anything but RVS to talk about? and the same with the zor slot, lots and lots of interactions but it’s all about the same topic and just restating the same thing again and again.

I think some of it might be scum theatre.


The +- thing is great once we have flips (especially scumflips. i’ve caught scum this way before and cleared people as town this way before) but at this stage of the game it’s mostly good for “does this person’s reads make any sense at all, are they changing over time in normal ways, how healthy is the tunnel they’re in, etc.”

pedit: @tool she’s summarising my summary of thor’s readslist.

[Plotinus]

The =s are the ones I don’t really know how to categorise, some of them are defending himself against another player but not making it clear in that post that he is scum/townreading them. other times it’s just that he mentions them in passing, or he lists the people he has interacted with several times for BBT but since it’s just a list of names without reads attached they get marked as =. Outright stating that someone is a null read gets marked with = as well. nullscum gets marked -= and nulltown gets marked +=. v is vote u is unvote. +- is always interesting and so is +?-? but i don’t think he had many of those. I might need to start using more symbols.

the reason i even bother marking a lot of those meaningless interactions (like listing people’s names without interacting) is that if someone has no interactions with anybody at all, not even listing their name in a list of names, then that’s suspicious.

[toolenduso]

pedit: @tool she’s summarising my summary of thor’s readslist.

OK. I still have no idea what any of it means.

[Plotinus]

pedit: @tool she’s summarising my summary of thor’s readslist.

OK. I still have no idea what any of it means.

Have you tried reading 1131?

The tl;dr is that thor’s reads are all stale, with very few changes of mind to take into account new information and that this is troubling on page 46.

[toolenduso]

Have you tried reading 1131?

I mean, kinda. But I don't really understand that one either. You have a key at the bottom, but the only symbol you define is the =. The meaning of the - and + are ambiguous.

[Plotinus]

No matter who I look at, your interactions are either all positive sorts of interactions (townreading, sheeping, agreeing, defending, backing them up) or all negative sorts of interactions (attacking, tunnelling, wagon driving, etc.).

I should have put this in the key.

+ means: townreading, sheeping, agreeing, defending, backing them up
- means: attacking, tunnelling, wagon driving, pushing

(once we have flips, + can mean buddying and - can mean bussing)

+ and - have to be alignment indicative sorts of (dis)agreements, from the perspective of the person I’m ISOing, as near as I can tell. For example a(n) (dis)agreement about setup spec or mafia theory would be marked as =

[Plotinus]

Ignoring the numbers and symbols, though, I did use my words in that post to analyse what I thought was going on.

The +- thing is every post in his ISO distilled into a format that I can understand and make sense of, and lets me see the whole picture at once.

[Plotinus]

it’s similar to what you’re doing with VCA except i don’t know anything about VCA and instead of just looking at votes i’m looking at every single stance on every other player to make sure things make sense. it’s not foolproof, especially this early on, but it has been working out well for me so far.

[Bellaphant]

@tool, it's a conclusion in parts to plot's list. I would've made a table, but I can't work out how ( I've seen other people do them - it also took me moths to work out how to do combined isos, I fail at tech). Plot gave a lot of data, but I wanted to take it a step further and do a bit of analysis, cos Thor is the read I'm getting asking about a lot/ prolly spending the most time on.

Going back to a question someone asked earlier (maybe pers?) initially, thor's reads list was reassuring, aa I couldn't get a handle on his thoughts. I should compare thay post with mine /plots post and see if they match up, when it's not midnight and phone posting

[toolenduso]

I started writing this before my wagon migrated to Pers and then back to me, so this analysis only takes into consideration the first flashwagon on me. That is, I think, important to look at by itself, and since this game is still moving pretty quickly and we only have one day to deadline I think that if I were to try to keep up with developments on my wagon I would not be able to post anything before deadline/my lynch.

People on my flashwagon:

Tex:

-Voted me all game. Reasons were bad, but I got a townvibe from her ISO.
-Only way she's scum is if she's both lazy/uninterested in this game AND if most of the other leading wagons had her partners on them.
-Her explanation that she's not putting much effort into the game adequately explains why she, as town, would push me for the entirety of D1 despite never having a single valid reason.

Shin:

-Shin was voting plotinus from #65-#698. This is one ISO I have not read all the way through but from what I can tell he gives literally no reason for unvoting Plot, and in fact appears to be criticizing plot's play pretty close to when he unvotes him. Shin's vote is on nobody for 150 posts and two days before he switches it to me.
-In #827 he says he would still wagon plot. Wtf.
-Votes me not long after Bella lists a secondary scum read on me (votes for plot instead though). His entire reasoning appears to be that I switched to a wagon that had Frogger on it. This is a super surface-level action to call scummy. He doesn't take into consideration the circumstances that more than adequately explain

why

I'm doing it, and then advocates for a fucking flashwagon based on this scumread he pulled out of fucking nowhere.
-Shin does not look good at all.

Frog:

-Frog's vote was on Thor since #565. He switched to me in #869.
-His flippant post in #871 could be Frogger again attempting to pre-empt suspicion by overplaying it.
-#873 and #876 are Frogger deflecting my questioning of him and turning it around to try to make me look worse. Frog later says he is actually making no attempt to defend himself from me. Not sure how that makes me feel about his alignment.
-Ffs...here's another place where Frogger contradicts himself. In #876 he's calling me out for being hypocritical, then he turns around and talks about how being hypocritical isn't a scumtell in #880. Four fucking posts later.
-#956 is Frogger handing out a townread to everybody willing to vote me. This is nonsensical.
-This is all par for the course frogger this game. His vote on me is bad, but looking at the whole wagon it does not look the worst to me. And it's hard to think Frog, playing the way we've seen him play this game, would actually sheep Shinobi if Shinobi was his partner.

Bella:

-Vote was on Plot since #789. Votes for me in #911.
-Bella had me as a back-up scumread behind Plot ever since she did her catch-up posts, so it makes sense she would switch to me as deadline approached. That doesn't excuse her reasoning for me being scum, which is poor just like everybody else's, but it does give a town explanation for why she voted me.
-The reasoning Bella uses that does strike me as particularly suspicious is her point about my post #403, which Bella writes about in her post #786. She calls the list of people I wanted to look into "really weird if I want to progress the game." This very much feels like Bella was looking for something to scumread me for. Like why does it have to do with anything? Is she saying I should only pay attention to the most active players? Is she not considering the numerous possibilities for why this might come from town, or the obvious null explanation of "he wants to get a better idea of how individual players are playing"?
-Kind of a wash on this one.

Pers:

-Votes and unvotes me right off the bat. Not really sure of the reasoning behind it and not sure if he knew that he was putting me at L-2.
-As I've already said, he appears to be going through my ISO with the predetermined conclusion that I'm scum. Very much something town or scum can do.
-I think one conclusion to draw from this is that it's unlikely that scumPers would join this wagon right off the bat if he had a partner on the wagon. I suppose it seems like a towny who doesn't have scummy caution, but I feel like that could easily be non-alignment-indicative based on Pers's playstyle.

People off my flashwagon:

CB:

-Seemed to think I was towny early in the game, then later criticized my play.
-His only reaction to the flashwagon against me was "Why are people scumreading tool?" in #958. Not much to go on.

Thor:

-Explicitly did not offer a read on me for a long time. See #613.
-The way that he wanted me to comment on the Zor wagon, and was working pretty hard to try to get me to see his arguments, would suggest to me that he approached my slot at that point as though he saw me as town.
-First time he explicitly calls me town is in #886, which is directly in response to the flashwagon on me. He is also specifically saying he gets a townvibe from my post #883.
-I'm conflicted on this. On the one hand, this is the second scum-counterintuitive thing Thor has done. He unvoted Math when that wagon was going strong in favor of starting a new wagon on Zor, and then despite having no stated read on me and having argued in walls with me for a while, he attacked the people on my wagon rather than joining it. On the other hand, I can think of a few explanations for Thor not joining my wagon. It could be that he figured Frog (in this scenario not a partner) would unvote if he joined my wagon. It could be that a partner was already on my wagon. Or maybe scumThor couldn't think of a legit reason to scumread me. I think Thor's strength as scum is that he works hard to develop reads in what looks like an organic way and tries to downplay any possible scum motivation like avoiding partners, pushing mislynches, etc. So I can see explanations either way for this.
-I suppose where that leaves me is that it does not do much to sway my earlier read on him.

Plot:

-Has me as maybe-town in #439.
-Continues to townread me, often for following a similar thought pattern as him, throughout his ISO.
-As far as I can tell, Plot never actually addresses the flashwagon on me. Which is, by itself suspicious...except that I townread plot for unrelated reasons.

BBT:

-Unfortunately the short version of my username (which is the most common way people refer to me) is also a word in BBT's signature, which makes it very hard for me to find myself in his ISO. Old-fashioned way it is!
-BBT is suspicious of me to start off with, pretty much for the same early-game reasons everyone else who's suspicious of me has used. #442 is a nice summary.
-Begins to ask me questions about my case, and basically realizes that I'm town when I show that I have a legitimate thought process behind it, even if he doesn't agree. I try to look at interactions with my own slot objectively, and this is a somewhat town maneuver. It certainly wouldn't have been controversial to push me at the time, and BBT already had stated suspicion of me.
-The predominant feature of BBT's interaction with my flashwagon is annoyance that it's distracting from the Thor wagon. By the time the flashwagon had begun, BBT had pretty much decided that I look town and was putting all his efforts into building the Thor wagon. Which is dead-on exactly the way he played the last time we were in a game together, when we were both town. Besides, I don't see a way to argue that that arc is improbable for town. So.

Lapsa:

-Hard to say. In #828 I

think

he's townreading me, for an early-game post I made.
-Then in #837 he says he'll scumread me if I vote Thor.
-Then I vote Thor, and in #1041 it seems like he's scumreading me?
-Has not voted me, however, and does not appear to have commented on the flashwagon on me. Then again, how often does Lapsa comment on any specific thing going on in the game? I feel like it's kind of a crapshoot. So I don't see any alignment-indicative stuff either way.

Zor:

-The vast majority of Zor's mentions of me are basically in the same place BBT ended up on me: He leans town on me for my posting, but doesn't agree with my case. He questions texcat a little for her read on me, but that looks more like trying to develop a read on texcat than it does defending me. In #858 Zor says he's leaning town on me.
-The only thing that kind of looks like an interaction with my flashwagon from Zor is #1120, and it's only kind of an interaction with my flashwagon because it's addressed to Shin. Other than that his thoughts on my wagon are conspicuously absent.
-Which is suspicious.

Overall:

It would make sense to me for there to be two scum off the wagon and one on, especially given that there are more than two players not on the wagon who didn't have much to say about my flashwagon. I believe a couple of them were also in catch-up mode or not really around at the time of this. For instance, if abuse is scum then that would help explain why the wagon never got past L-2. The one-on, two-off theory fits in pretty well with the wagon building up to L-2 but never getting past that -- scum at that point would likely be worried about looking opportunistic for hopping on.

Which is just awesome because I feel like most people are townreading Shinobi too. Hey, maybe people will take this analysis seriously once I flip town. I still pretty much expect to be lynched today.

[Plotinus]

people should vote thor. his reads aren’t changing over time. he is probably scum. the deadline is soon. if he flips scum, we can look at associatives tomorrow. it is like the one thing i am good at. if he flips town, we can look at the wagon tomorrow.

@tool i read your wall and i found it helpful but it is after midnight so i can’t interact with it on a deeper level right now. i’m ever behind on my notes and you’ve been a townlean for most of the game i think but i don’t have +-s yet to help me try to see things from your perspective in the format i understand best and i worry a little that my reasons for townleaning you aren’t entirely alignment indicative (playstyle, and your overall approach to the game), so you’re next on my list of people i want to develop a stronger read on.

@all i no longer feel like deathtunnelling bella toMorrow. frogger’s almost certainly town. if thor’s scum then persivul may be scum as well. i’m almost entirely sure there is scum theatre in thor’s ISO and if it’s not persivul then zor or bbt but i’m townleaning both of them so persivul. if thor’s not scum, then will want to look at the wagon.

[Persivul]

@tool: my vote is on thor

[Zoronos]

We really should just lynch Bella.
I don't think lynching Tool is the right call.

[Aeronaut]

Titus replaces Abuse
Tere replaces CB

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