The question that I think would clarify my reads the most is-- are Ranger and Brunneis the same alignment, and is that alignment more likely to be town or scum?
The stuff in parentheses has been added at the end.
(I want to talk about my conclusion first. I think that Ranger bussing Brunneis might be a real possibility.
BUT I AM EXTREMELY HESITANT OF THIS CONCLUSION AND I THINK IT IS UNLIKELY FOR THREE REASONS
1) BRUNNEIS IS MY TOP TOWNREAD OUT OF THE LYNCHPOOL STILL
2) THEIR D2 INTERACTIONS SEEM REAL AND I'LL CLARIFY THIS LATER
3) BECAUSE I THINK THERE IS SOME VERY REAL CONFIRMATION BIAS THAT I HAVE, BASED ON RANGER'S FRANKLY HORRIBLE REASON FOR TOWNREADING BRUNNEIS VERY RECENTLY. I HAVE TRIED TO BE AS OBJECTIVE AS POSSIBLE BUT FRANKLY I FEEL LIKE IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO AVOID THE FACT THAT I CAME UP WITH THIS CONCLUSION BEFORE I DIVED INTO RANGER'S ISO AND HAVE MERELY FOUND FACTS SUPPORTING IT. SO TAKE THIS CONCLUSION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. MANY GRAINS OF SALT.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT I HAVE TO LOOK AT OTHER ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN RANGER AND OTHER PEOPLE I THINK.
BUT MY TOWNREAD ON BRUNNEIS IS UNCHANGED. I THINK I'M LEANING SCUM ON RANGER.
I FEEL SO FUCKING PARANOID AND CONFUSED THIS GAME
Sorry for the Caps Lock. I won't bother going back and fixing it.)
Ranger's wagon analysis leads her to believe that two of me, brunneis, and trivium are scum.
Brunneis is suspicious of ranger for "bailing on the Errant wagon" and ranger responds indignantly.
Beginning of D2 seems to still think Brunneis is scum. But it's reduced to an "I'm watching you closely, Brunneis" instead of any actual voting or pressure going on.
514 she says she is not sold on Brunneis.
515 Says that Brunneis was probably a counterwagon on my wagon, which might be one of the more baffling things that Ranger has said. If Ranger's suspicion on the sudden dissipation of my wagon is to be believed, then there would be no reason for scum to push MY WAGON ON TO ANOTHER SCUM. Like, what?
Keeps saying Brunneis is scum with me and makara, but doesn't engage her scumreads in any real way other than that. Also so far seems to not give any real reasons for Brunneis being scum other than wagon analysis. See a trend?
Actual engagement in
557. This is the one thing i've seen that goes against my bussing theory. Ranger talks about Brunneis' page 22 being obvscum but I frankly don't see this either. Most of the things that Ranger has been saying this game I just don't follow. And that makes me concerned. Then they argue about me for a bit, w/e.
Hops on the Brunneis wagon D2, stating that he's unsure about whether it's L2 or L3. HONESTLY? I don't think that a scum partner would say something like this. I think a scum partner would actually want to keep track of where their partner is at, lynch-wise. Is this lack of concern faked or real? I think it could go either way.
595 is about Brunneis and Ranger admitting that her scumread on Brunneis is admittedly not as strong as other people, and also saying that she feels obligated to engage in her scumreads (which is a very good way to play the game I think). This post seriously messes with my head.
When Persivul comes in the game, Ranger jumps on the alternate lynch proposal made by Max on Pers. I find it interesting that Ranger, being so adamant for a Brunneis lynch, jumps on this wagon and puts Persivul at her top scumread.
and then in D3, decides that when the pressure lets off of Brunneis, she's going to townread Brunneis for reasons that I've already questioned.
So here is a possible train of thought for optimal bussing strategy for Ranger.
One. "I want to apply enough pressure so that the bussing is genuine, but not enough pressure so that Brunneis gets lynched."
Two. "I want to apply pressure to Brunneis when other people are pressuring Brunneis so that I don't stand out if Brunneis flips."
Three. "However, I don't want to be the person that pressures Brunneis the most because again, that might get Brunneis lynched."
Four. "This is because if someone pressures Brunneis at, say, Level 10, and I pressure Brunneis at Level 5, then I don't control the limit to how close Brunneis is to getting lynched, the Level 10 person does."
Five. "I don't want Brunneis to be my top scumread, because I still want town to get lynched."
Six. "I will have to fabricate some reasons for me to scumread Brunneis when others are, and to townread Brunneis when others are."
Obviously, this is moving into WIFOM territory, but I feel like Ranger openly admitting to doing some of these things makes this argument less strong.
I also think that the one, shining period between the Errant Age and the Persivul Age for Ranger where she attacked Brunneis almost solely (Beginning of D2) makes this argument less strong.
CONCLUSIONS:
1. I think that there is at least one scum between Ranger and Brunneis.
2. I think that one scum is just as likely as two scum.
3. I think that out of the two, Ranger is likely to be the scum.
4. I am not confident about all of the above.
5. I spent one hour on doing something that drew no definite conclusions.