Newbie 1676 | Hungarian Nóták | Endgame

[Witch_Hunter]

Hello, everyone! First timer here.

VOTE: Freshman
Let's get the ball rolling.

[Witch_Hunter]

I thought it would be nice to get to know you guys; afterall we will be residing in the same town for a few days
1) Have anyone of you played any off-site games?
2)How about on-site games? If so; How Many?
3) How would you describe yourself as an individual?
4) What do you think you will be remembered for this game?
5) Why are you not scum? (:P)
6) Favourite pizza topping?
7) Favourite Movie?
8) Favourite Song/band/music genre?

VOTE: witch hunter agent 47 is a an assassin which is pretty close to a hungarian mafia member IMO

Hi there, hiplop!
1/2 - No. I'm really a mafia virgin.
3 - Quiet in unfamiliar situations, a sarcastic geek around friends. Well meaning, but not very socially skilled.
4 - Too early to say, really.
5 - Because the mod decided I'm town.
6 - Chocolate.
7 - Hmm, that's a tough one. Possibly

Gladiator

. Not the best movie there is, sure, and an incredibly innacurate depiction of ancient Rome, but the mix of good acting, politics and awesome action scenes makes it a very re-watchable movie for me.
8 - Either Led Zeppelin or Queen.

Btw, my avatar's supposed to be Rude of the Turks from Final Fantasy VII. So it's not hungarian mafia, it's corporate mafia, not that it helps any!

[Witch_Hunter]

4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.

Isn't that

precisely

what scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.

[Witch_Hunter]

3) Irrespective of the validity of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, INTP fits me almost perfectly.

Well, I would have put that also, but I didn't think anyone would know what I meant Congrats on beating me to it.

As for me, I'd forgotten all about the Myers-Briggs types*. I don't know how reliable these online tests are, but the results match. So, it seems we have a third INTP here:
http://www.16personalities.com/profiles/568daba115997

* Ever since learning they're based on Jungian theory, and whereas Jung had some great ideas, he wasn't that keen on evidence. Or so I've been told, anyway.

[Witch_Hunter]

4) Logical posts that lead to a mislynch.

Isn't that

precisely

what scum would say? "Look, I may look really scummy, but I'm a townie. No, really!"
It could be just your personality, but it sounds suspicious.

5. I'm always scum, even when I'm town. That much hasn't changed

For the same reasons above, I don't like this much either.
Either way, no strong reads on Belisarius or Kim but for that, so I'm not changing my vote till everyone's participating and I have a more complete set of reads. Unless someone actually claims scum or something overtly suspicious.

@

Bluebird

: Captain Basch is a character from Final Fantasy XII who gets impersonated twice during the game.
Ontopic: Your vote on Belisarius, was it just OMGUS or something else?

@

Belisarius

: Do you actually scumread Bluebird, or is your vote still random?

@

Kim

: It's way early in the game, but any of those logical posts you could share?

[Witch_Hunter]

Mostly offtopic, except for the last question:

@

Hiplop

: I'll check it later, thanks for pointing it. Kinda odd this game gathers so many of what's supposed to be a rare type (~3%).

@ All Canadians: Your musical discussions went completely over my head, so: any good metal Canadian bands?

@All experienced players: What's your suggested method of keeping track of what's going on? Do you take notes, and how?

[Witch_Hunter]

Hey Witch have you heard of RVS?

Random voting stage? I have, even if I didn't much see the point before hiplop explained it.
If that's your way of inviting me to RV some more, I'd rather wait till everyone's here. For all I know, all six of us who posted so far may be townies wasting our time trying to scumread each other.

@

Kim

: Thank you for the post - seriously - but we have some miscommunication here. I meant, "would you post one of your logical analyses on this game?"
Then again, ignore it for now. I'll ask again later, when the game really gets going. Just from reading other games, I hadn't realized that takes a while to happen.

[Witch_Hunter]

Welcome,

MrCurlyNoodles

! Good to see I'm not the only total newbie around. Feel free to ask for advice - not that I have any to give, but this is a friendly crowd and chances are I'll learn from the answers too.

Anyway, I'd like to hear more from you, and my vote on an inactive player isn't doing any good, so you know what? I'll follow the suggestion from the experienced players. Random vote it is:
VOTE: MrCurlyNoodles

[Witch_Hunter]

serious vote

Ok, if you say so.
You have a really opaque MO, you know? It's hard to read you either way if you don't speak your mind now and then.

[Witch_Hunter]

Um,

Freshman

and

Dizzy

, could you please start posting? The game's getting interesting at last, but without everyone on board it's not as good as it could be.

[Witch_Hunter]

@

Kim

: We couldn't disagree more in our conclusions. Hiplop's my strongest townread so far. Sure, that's not very strong, more like 60%, but it's still something. So I'm wary of posts like:

I think that hiplop's actions are worthy of pressure.

Allow me to explain. Either hiplop saw Belisarius' first vote or he didn't.
If he did, and he's scum, he's accusing Belisarius on terribly shaky grounds. Even I had noticed it was odd, and it's my freaking first game!
If he did, and he's town, he's still making a weak accusation, but with some purpose. Possibly to see if scum would get on that shitty bandwagon, then call them out later.

If he didn't, he's been skim reading. I can see a veteran town player being slightly careless on day 1, especially in a newbie game. I have a hard time seeing scum-hiplop doing the same, since it's a much greater risk for him.

So, either hiplop's town, and at most guilty of not noticing one post, or he's terrible scum.

Later, the same process is at play. Belisarius changes his vote to you and hiplop does the same at once.
Town-hiplop reason: finally noticed Belisarius was actually taking part in RVS. Therefore, no more reason to suspect him for the moment. And he's also applying pressure on someone. Why not help him and get a read on this Kim guy?
Scum-hiplop reason: uh oh, my case on Belisarius just went offrails. What if he suspects me? I know, I'll sheep his vote and cunningly move attention away from me. <evil laugh>

Again, either hiplop's town or stupid. And I'd rather bet our IC is not stupid.

[Witch_Hunter]

Welcome,

Some Random Mafia Player

!

I get your overall gist, but what do you mean by 60%? I'm assuming it's not that there's a 60% chance he's town and 40% chance he's scum.

It's his score in my town-o-meter. It indicates how confident I am someone's town. Begins at neutral 50%, 0% is confirmed scum, 100% is confirmed town. 60% is a somewhat arbitrary number meaning "given it's still Day 1, he gives town vibes and I wouldn't lynch him today".

Town question eachother all the time, I don't think Kim's push on me seems particularly scummy.

It seemed odd to me: on the one hand, I agree with almost everything he says, taken in isolation. His posting style looks good: transparent, argumentative, active. On the other hand, his actions amounted to being suspicious of the player I was least suspicious about. Was him bad at reading people, was I, or was it something more? It's not much, hence my not even FoSing him, but it was worth checking.

Looks ok to me. Thank you for posting your ideas.
UNVOTE:
Now get to work and chase your leads.

who is "We"

Inclusive we = You (Kim) and I (WH).

[Witch_Hunter]

@

AzoriusSenate

: Welcome!
I like your first post. Lean on information, but seems a legit effort. Interesting read on Bluebird. I'd interpreted her first post as noobtown indignated at being accused and overreacting, but it'd be interesting to see what she has to say for herself.

@

Some Random Mafia Player

:
I also liked your post, at first. Until I got to the end.
It has one

little

thing I don't understand: the conclusion does not follow from the premises. Your case on Bluebird follows on AzoriusSenate's and reinforces it, and most of your post is spent on it. So far, so good. Yet you vote on Kim, saying "havent seen towny things, bu have seen scummy things from this slot. Not the most scummy, but is second behind bluebird", though you only pointed to one post of his.

So, please enlighten me here. What's your case on Kim, and why vote him if he's not your strongest scumread?


Off topic: David Bowie. Rest in peace, man, and thank you for the music.

[Witch_Hunter]

Alright, I admit I'm also curious about the read list conumdrum.

From my (admittedly newbie) point of view, posting read lists should be good for town. Mafia is about information. Scum already knows who belongs to what faction, town doesn't. Read lists give information that

could

be useful for scum (what player X thinks is going on) but are

definitely

useful for town (who is probably town, who is probably scum): it's not a game like poker, where you have to read everyone else on your own, but a team game where we build on each other's opinions to get progressively more information, thus reducing scum's inherent advantage.

(The only exception would be PRs, a key piece of information where scum and town are equally in the dark, and that's why this isn't discussed without the utmost care. This is where security outweighs transparency. And that's all we should be saying about the subject today, really.)

What's the argument for secrecy? How does town benefit from it?

[Witch_Hunter]

The more experienced players can touch on this as well, but I will explain my POV. People making lists with scum and town in them gives scum a lot of information. Obviously town is already sharing there thoughts but there is something very potent in lists.

The scum can easily use these lists, if incorrect, to manipulate town.

Another point to be made is that they really are useless. At this point we should all have people we do and don't want to lynch today. Putting everything on the table for scum to see is unnecessary and could lead to them gaining an advantage. Plus, it's very early in the game so reads should absolutely not be set in stone.

Disagree on their uselessness, and don't see why posting a list should set reads in stone. Of course opinions should change as new information comes up, and we shouldn't expect people to necessarily keep the same reads they posted a while ago.
But the bolded part is a good point. I still think they're more useful for town than for scum, but yes, there is some danger.

I'm aware these are all things scum can do while just playing the game but I feel like it's easier with early read lists.

Also a good point.

but a team game where we build on each other's opinions to get progressively more information, thus reducing scum's inherent advantage.

how do you know who is in your team? what is scum's main aim? how do they achieve that aim?

1. That's what talking and sharing information is for. In a

reductio ad absurdum

, nobody posts anything so scum can't work on misdirection, and in the end scum wins because town didn't have enough info to go with.
2. To win the game = to kill town.
3. Scum wins by default if town doesn't do anything. Town must be active and hunt scum to win. That's done by getting information.

That said

, your and AzoriusSenate's point is that then scum can work on misdirection. Point accepted.

So, would you agree on this more nuanced statement: "read lists give a lot of information. Information is a powerful town weapon, but it can potentially be subverted by scum, so it should be handled with care. How exactly to do that depends on the game-specific circumstances."?

Anyway, if you know of a good article in the wiki or discussion in MD about this topic, please post it. This theory talk shouldn't derail us from what's going on right now, but it's still important.

[Witch_Hunter]

Feeling bad vibes from

Some Random Mafia Player

. Very defensive, very confident Bluebird should be lynched with not enough evidence, and I still didn't see his case on Kim, even though he wanted us to talk about it and I explicitly requested him to say what was so important about Kim specifically.

Will ISO him later when I have the time, but for now,

FoS: Some Random Mafia Player

.

P-edit: @

Belisarius

: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?

[Witch_Hunter]

VOTE: Some Random Mafia Player

Some Random Mafia Player

's (lack of) formatting makes his posts a pain to analyze.

The TL;DR version, to quote

Smudger

, is:

"But lest look at your content so far...on the whole so far your responses are scummy. you are not consistent, you are raging and not actually saying anything that makes sense let alone points to anything of substance."

@

Everyone

, opinions, please. More specifically, either persuade me my case is nonsense or prepare to lend your votes. There are other things deserving investigation, and we still have time to start looking into them before the Day ends, but this is important.

A caveat that must be mentioned: his fight with Smudger is a big mess of text walls and I didn't go too deeply into it, partly because it's still going. But the rest should suffice. There's a pattern of inconsistency and throwing wild accusations around.

Spoiler: First, his vote on Kim:

VOTE: Kim We'll see where this goes

why do you think kim is scum? If you don't think they are scum, why are you pressuring them? It just contradicts to what you said earlier.

Welcome, new people!

While I'm up (most of the time I can sleep through my phone vibrating when it gets this thread's subscription email, but not tonight, apparently)...

UNVOTE: hiplop for the reasons mentioned by Belisarius, Witch_Doctor, and him. Nobody else seems worthy of a vote at this hour.

Sure, they might be right, but I would take note that this is Kim's first post since hiplop unvoted them. Maybe they unvoted because they only did it to try and somewhat pressure hilop into getting off them? There is reason to do this, as Hiplop is the easiest person to sheep due to it being assumed he knows exactly what hes doing.

Kim (havent seen towny things, bu have seen scummy things from this slot. Not the most scummy, but is second behind bluebird)

For now, VOTE: Kim, while I think bluebird is scummier, I feel this is a more important lynch to discuss. Not saying you shouldn't discuss the bluebird lynch though.

Great case. Really solid. Gave us lots of material to ponder. "Bluebird is scum, but I'm voting Kim, even though I have no real reason to, just to pressure him. Btw, hiplop is weird for trying to pressure Kim".

But maybe you really saw something odd about Kim and just wanted to see our opinion. Except, when called out on it, you go on the defensive instead of giving us a reason to talk about him:

Also, I would like to point out that I was not gonna stick with my kim lynch. I was trying to put a discussion point in place. But since we decided to ignore it I moved my lynch to the person I think is scum which is bluebird, not the discussion lynch which is kim

(although if we decided to lynch them I would be on board for it)

@

Some Random Mafia Player

:
I also liked your post, at first. Until I got to the end.
It has one

little

thing I don't understand: the conclusion does not follow from the premises. Your case on Bluebird follows on AzoriusSenate's and reinforces it, and most of your post is spent on it. So far, so good. Yet you vote on Kim, saying "havent seen towny things, bu have seen scummy things from this slot. Not the most scummy, but is second behind bluebird", though you only pointed to one post of his.

So, please enlighten me here. What's your case on Kim, and why vote him if he's not your strongest scumread?

As I stated, discussion lynch, and I mostly saw discussion on the ppl interacting with kim, not kim themself. That dident work though because due to doing that people discussed me for trying to start a discussion on kim instead of discussing kim because that was the whole point for the vote everyone sees as scummy in the first place.

And since I keep thinking of things. Another thing I want to point out was that I was not planning to stick with the lynch, so if I was bussing, why would I lead a lynch before hopping off the wagon? That would be scummy as fuck and get me lynch easily, then again, thats wifom. Now that i think of it, your assuming I am trying to avoid a bus (I think) if you are, how could I still be bussing? That would mean 3 scum. So do you thnik im bussing or avoiding a bus? Also,
[...]
witch, its page 3, theres not much to base off of does not contain much, its only page 4, page 3 at that time. The main thing is what Azorius said, which imo makes a lot of sense.

Spoiler: Second, his vote on Bluebird:

I am not scared to join the bluebird wagon, especially since no discussion actually happened on kim. The point of me doing it is now useless so UNVOTE: Kim VOTE: Bluebird and that one-liner that I made was because I dident see this. I think this justifies your read on me.

You are quite confident she is scum based on some 5 posts:

belisaurus, I guess your right, but if you flipped scum I was suspicious of bluebird anyway, it wouldent have made much difference in my reads chart. I probably dident take into account the possibility of your flip coming first because im sure bluebird is dying first due to getting a d1 lynch (unless the sub turns it around)

Except, of course, when you're not:

Interesting, if Bluebird does get subbed, I say we wait to see what they do before we go for a lynch.

noting that I put bluebird at L-2, so imo dont lynch them yet even if they return.

MrCurlyNoodles

asked what was so scummy about Bluebird, and you gave a non answer:

I'm curious why everyone seems so sure that Bluebird is scum. The opening posts definitely seemed quite defensive but I read it like Witch_Hunter did, just as a new player reacting to being voted first and for no apparent reason if they didn't know about RVS (I didn't know about the RVS until I read the guides hiplop posted). If they knew about RVS the reaction is a super-nervous-possibly-scummy reaction, but if they didn't it might have just been a first time nervous reaction (as I might have had in the same situation). This might just be me being a noob and not seeing the whole situation or just not understanding all the logistics of this game though So people voting for bluebird: want to tell more of why you think they're scum? Or is it just those opening posts and trying to put pressure to get a response out of her? It is pretty weird that she hasn't really posted since.
[...]
Speaking of gut feelings, Some Random Mafia Player's initial post, immediately bandwagoning on AzoriusSenate's post and voting Kim despite spending most of the post calling Bluebird scum, and the way they immediately backed down (kind of defensively too) when hiplop called them out on it also gives me a gut scum feeling. Their point about "just trying to create discussion" also seems somewhat invalid to me since some discussion was already had on kim, enough that some minds were changed. Then again, being someone who subbed in they might not have fully read all of that. And they have been posting a lot since then, seemingly trying to out the scum. So idk.

Either way welcome to the new people! Hopefully we all have a great time!

Side note: I'm aware this post sounds very defensive of Bluebird, but I'm honestly just genuinely curious about why some people seem so sure she's scum. I get the pressure thing. But beyond that I'm wondering what people's thought processes are.

If discussion was already on kim, I complete missed that. Also, my goal wasent achieved, and with your point, their was no reason for my vote to remain. Read on Azorius? (to comment on more of your post I need this read)

Spoiler: Third, his reads are strange:

Also think Azoriusenate is town, solid opening post, agree with everything said.

scumreads:
Bluebird (overly defensive in rvs mostly, but
Belisarius (if bluebird flips scum)
Kim (havent seen towny things, bu have seen scummy things from this slot. Not the most scummy, but is second behind bluebird)

neutral:

Mrcurlynoodles: (his post seems town, but he needs to be more active before I can for sure call him town)

hiplop: (doesent seem townie or scummy.)
Smudger: (inactive and mosty useless posts. But 64 looks towny

Townreads
witch: (I see nothing scummy and lots of town)

AzoriuSenate (He just came in, but that post looks town. I could see it coming from scum though)

For now, I'll just say I disagree with most of them (mostly by being uncertain about a few people you already have an opinion about). Here's the odd thing, though: you're blatantly following AzoriuSenate's reads (even now, AS wants to lynch Kim and Bluebird). Based on his

one

post. Even though, of course, he could be scum.
Maybe you're the kind that trusts people. But then again, you don't extend the same trust to MrCurlyNoodles, who has posted just as much.

It's almost as if AzoriuSenate's accusations were convenient, so of course he had to be town.

Spoiler: Finally, his vote on Smudger:

I like smudger and witch as town so far. Waiting on Bluebird to do anything. I also want to look into a Kim lynch today if things change. (They usually do in mafia.)

explain the smudger read? He hasent posted much relevant to this game imo, he seems to be fillering, although his relevant posts don't incidcate scum, which unless I missed something is onl 2

leaving this here and walking away, I even stated it doesent indicate hes scum ffs.

Also, I am still unhappy smudge hasent really interacted with anyone. He asked me 2 questions, made a decent post, and thats kinda it. The other 13 have not been helpful. Doesn't change my stance on him much though.

you missed my post about time differences? or are you just becoming tunnel visioned because I questioned you?

since im too lazy to throw everything into one post, I dident miss the timezone difference, and my last post disapproves the second option

once again, and I linked it, I never called you scum.

You didn't scumread him at first. Until he did something awful: pressuring you. Suddenly, he's scum:

actually, what explanation can a town use to justify smudgers actions?

UNVOTE: bluebird
VOTE: Smudger

I think he scumslipped, he should be lynched. Theres no way he missed the fact I still read him as null, but he tried to build a case on me as if I said he was scum anyway, if he knew I read him null, why would he lie? To push a case on a townie? (if you really want to confirm this, I offer to be lynched first, but I doubt you actually need the extra evidence, and no, this isent a "oh he tried to offer to be lynched and since scum wouldent do that he tried to make it look like he townslipped! Get him!")

You never said you changed your opinion on either Bluebird or Kim, by the way, so apparently we have 3 scum in this game.

[Witch_Hunter]

@

MrCurlyNoodles

: I'm quite flattered.
Spoiler tags are pretty easy to use, and make long texts much easier to digest. Give them a try later - you don't even have to post anything, just preview the results until you're satisfied and then cancel the post. And let me know if you find other cool features, I'm still experimenting.

P-edit: @ Belisarius: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?

His interference with a perceived gambit by hiplop makes no sense from a town perspective, but could come from scum trying to manipulate me while at the same time making a show of standing up to the IC.

There's also something else right on the tip of my tongue, but I've been trying to draw it out for days and it's being a stubborn git.

I suppose that's SE-speak for "I have some evidence, but it's not the moment to talk about it yet". If that's the case, let's discuss it later, assuming we are both alive tomorrow. Some have townread Kim, some think he should be lynched, and I don't see what either side is seeing.

Is there a rule that all veteran players have to speak in vague and mysterious tones? I was earlier annoyed by Smudger doing the same. Now I begin to see the point, seeing the reaction he got from Some Random Mafia Player, but still, really high-level games probably read like the Delphic Oracle.

@

Kim, Bluebird, AzoriuSenate

, what about you? Convinced or not? If convinced, please state intent to hammer, but

don't vote before he has a chance to claim

, please.

[Witch_Hunter]

But just from reading the thread when he arrived, he must have noticed that's not the way we're playing. It could be culture shock, but even if this explains his posts' disorganization, I don't think it also explains his inconsistent, defensive playstyle.

What I got from the SRMP-Smudger fight boils down to "Smudger pressures SRMP to get a reaction, SRMP freaks and makes a very unconvincing case on Smudger". Not damning by itself, but part of an overall behavior that is, at least, anti-town.

While Bluebird and AzoriuSenate don't show up: let's suppose you stay unconvinced. Who do you want lynched today? Belisarius (who isn't convinced either) wants either you or Bluebird. What do you suggest?

[Witch_Hunter]

After all, it doesn't necessarily have to be Some Random Mafia Player, provided we have a better case on someone else, but Day 1 should have a lynch. A short discussion with arguments against no-lynch: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4024936

[Witch_Hunter]

@

AzoriusSenate

: Thank you!

@

hiplop

: Why the unvote? The only risk was SRMP self-hammering, but that would in itself be a claim, or a refusal to claim, would it not?

@

Kim

: /Somewhat offtopic: If it helps, I'll tell you this: when I became interested in Mafia, at first I supposed it was a logic game. Watch who lies, who is inconsistent, and voilà, scum found. That's why I once said I like the way you post, btw. My first posts actually reflect this belief: I saw no reason we couldn't all be friendly and talk about pizza and Canadian music while also playing the game seriously.

Now, after playing for a few days, I'm increasingly suspicious logic's only a small part of it, and what differentiates good players is skill in bluffing and reading people,

in that order

. Read a few games from non-newbies, and it's like they're all BSing each other until, somehow, a scumdar pings. And I'm a crappy card player in RL. In other words, I like this game,

but it's hard, and in different ways than expected

.

So, just in case I read you right and you feel you don't quite get what's going on and don't have the required skillset to be a badass Mafia player, well, I'm in the same boat. Probably all the other newbies are too.
If this makes no sense to you, feel free to ignore it.

[Witch_Hunter]

@

hiplop

: The flu is awful. Get better soon.

Let me ask you the same thing I asked Kim: supposing SMRP's not the right lynch, what would you suggest?

[Witch_Hunter]

@

Some Random Mafia Player

, running away helps no one. You're still in the game. Can we have your claim, please?

And, in case we're wrong about you and you flip town, consider sharing anything you think is important. It could be helpful tomorrow.

[Witch_Hunter]

Unfortunately, SRMP's attitude at L-1 was so weirdly erratic and defeatist there wasn't much of a choice. Had he been left alive, would anyone have been able to believe anything he said? Or would we spend most of Day 2 discussing whether to lynch him, same as yesterday?

Now, hiplop's fate deserves some consideration. As the IC, he was

ipso facto

a target for scum. But would he have been killed if his reads were completely off-target? If that were the case, scum'd probably be better off leaving him alive and killing someone closer to finding scum, a more immediately dangerous player. Checking his reads more carefully is worth at least a try.

Reads right now for those viewers at home
Town
Witch
Kim
Noodles
AzoriiiousSenate

Null
Smudge
Belisarius
(Cmon SE's, get more active )

Scum
Bluebird
Some Random Mafia Player - Seriously, this is not a town mindset

SRMP flipped town, so that leaves Bluebird.

Personally, I didn't see much of a case on her yesterday - her defensiveness looked indignated town. Lurking, maybe? A possible scumtell, but not that strong without other clues.

@

People who scumread Bluebird yesterday

: Now we know SRMP was town, thus no SRMP-Bluebird team. Does this change your read on her?

[Witch_Hunter]

Question for most anybody on the SMRP wagon: Did you find their posts about readlists (94, 98, the first couple of paragraphs of 101, 104, and 106) suspicious?

It depends. The reads themselves I disagreed with, and at the time believed it was too early to have an opinion about

everyone

.

But the act of posting a readlist? That seemed town, that's why I asked for people's opinions about it (his 104), (my 105). It intrigued me, this town behavior coming from a scummy player.

[Witch_Hunter]

@Bluebird

please state the reason for your FOS/scum read

As I have stated earlier, I scumread you because your stats indicate that you subbed out of every game that you were town, one entry notwithstanding. Also,

your

conversation with SRMP was what convinced us to lynch.

@

Bluebird

: Let me check one thing here - are you just talking about yesterday, or do you still scumread Smudger right now?

[Witch_Hunter]

@AzoriusSenate

: those posts you mentioned were from before you arrived, were discussed at the time, and resulted from a misunderstanding of sorts. Hiplop got suspicious of Belisarius because he didn't notice Belisarius' vote in RVS, as he admits later (post 58).

Please notice I'm just saying I disagree

with that specific theory

. Belisarius is one of my nullreads and one of two players I find hardest to read. I want to see where this goes, in case my #1 suspicion is wrong.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Kim

: Best of luck to your mom.

[Witch_Hunter]

after my last game this one is a comparative nursing home for activity..... yawn

so to liven it up I think that scum sits somewhere here Bluebird/Kim/Azorious

Yeah, a bit disappointed here too. There's lots of things of analyze and check, there should be some more debate going on.

Bluebird is a possibility, yes. I didn't pay her much attention on Day 1, because anyone SRMP wanted to vote was almost automatically off-limits, but there are some things that just don't fit, you know?
Kim, I'm not sure about. It'd take a reread to be sure, but I don't remember him doing much scumhunting. Could be a problem in his logic shtick, that makes him overanalyze and see possible WIFOM everywhere.

My suspects list includes Belisarius. Same as Kim, he's hard to read. Could be a townie who prefers to stay in a corner and watch people without drawing much attention to himself.

AzoriusSenate? Probably town. Same as you - overall pro-town behavior of investigating, trying to stir the game when there's not much going on.

For completeness' sake, MrCurlyNoodles is possibly town, though I wish he'd participate more, just to be sure.

TL;DR version, from least to most suspicious:
{AzoriusSenate / Smudger}
{MrCurlyNoodles}
{Belisarius / Kim}
{Bluebird}

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Bluebird

: Can't speak for the others, but here's why I'm suspicious of you: your case on Smudger is odd. If you believe SRMP's lynch was masterminded by scum, a more logical act would be to accuse me of being behind it, not him, since I played a more direct role. Yes, they had that horrendous series of quote walls back and forth. After a while, I only skimmed those posts briefly, and probably others did the same. They made SRMP look bad, granted, but it's not as if he needed much help doing that. But while Smudger pressed SRMP, I was persuading the other players.

Don't believe me? Let's check the non-Smudger votes on SRMP.

Spoiler: First, hiplop votes SRMP, for reasons unrelated to Smudger:

For now, VOTE: Kim, while I think bluebird is scummier, I feel this is a more important lynch to discuss. Not saying you shouldn't discuss the bluebird lynch though.

I like you. I buy your reasoning for bluebird, I really do. This vote is NOT good. In fact, VOTE: some random mafia player. This to me reads as a bus (read: throwing his partner under the bus). A new wagon of sorts forms on bluebird, you agree, go on with the momentum...and vote someone completely different? That does NOT read natural to me in the slightest. This seems like you're scared to join the blooming bluebird wagon too early in case it has ramifications on the rest of your game. This sort of mindset is commonly indicative of scum.

Spoiler: Later, I vote SRMP. Please check the bolded part, where it says the SRMP-Smudger fight isn't that important:

VOTE: Some Random Mafia Player

Some Random Mafia Player

's (lack of) formatting makes his posts a pain to analyze.

The TL;DR version, to quote

Smudger

, is:

"But lest look at your content so far...on the whole so far your responses are scummy. you are not consistent, you are raging and not actually saying anything that makes sense let alone points to anything of substance."

@

Everyone

, opinions, please. More specifically, either persuade me my case is nonsense or prepare to lend your votes. There are other things deserving investigation, and we still have time to start looking into them before the Day ends, but this is important.

A caveat that must be mentioned: his fight with Smudger is a big mess of text walls and I didn't go too deeply into it, partly because it's still going. But the rest should suffice. There's a pattern of inconsistency and throwing wild accusations around.

[...]

Spoiler: Then, MrCurlyNoodles votes, specifically agreeing with my earlier post:

@Witch_Hunter

That was maybe the most well put together post I've seen all game, especially once people started debating Just wanted to give you a congrats on the formatting, with the drop downs and everything, it was super easy to read and understand and the writing was super solid too. I'm just overall super impressed

Compliments aside, I don't think what you're saying is nonsense, in fact it's pretty much exactly what I've been thinking just put together better. I was/still am unsure if it's all definitively indicative of scum or just a really reactive personality who's new to the game and isn't playing town very well, a stance that I can sympathize with since I don't know if I'm helping the town as much as I could be either (though I'm not throwing accusations left and right and muddling the page with quite as much spam ). That being said I will join you and VOTE: Some Random Mafia Player because at this point I almost feel like it would help the town either way. That sounds kind of rude but I don't know how else to put it. Everything you put in your post is pretty much exactly what I've been noticing which is either very scummy or very unhelpful for town. Either way I believe it deserves my vote.

Spoiler: AzoriusSenate joins the wagon, partly persuaded by me, partly by SRMP's weird play:

I like this post, and agree with pretty much everything you are saying. I would like to hear his response.

eh, you can hammer, first game is boring anyway. Nobody pays attention.

and note: I never raged, but eh nobody cares I just get ignored it seems.

actually, eh i can self hammer, but I don't feel like breaking the rules, just hammer me and let me join other games (stuck with only 1 game is boring af, I would rather get lynched d1 in 10 games at once )

This is awful.

UNVOTE: Bluebird

Intent to hammer. Claim.

[/quote]

I also tried to convince other people to either join the wagon, debunk the case on SRMP or provide an alternative (eg, post 177, post 179, post 200).

Finally, hiplop briefly unvoted SRMP, uncertain whether he was scum or upset town. Remember why he decided on scum and voted on him once again? Post 204: because hiplop scumread you and you defended SRMP.

Therefore, out of the 4 non-Smudger votes, I have direct responsibility for my own, helped convince for MrCurlyNoodles and AzoriusSenate's and tried my best to persuade everyone else. You, indirectly, convinced hiplop. Nowhere does Smudger play a decisive role in this. That's why you suspecting him for that makes me somewhat suspicious of you in turn.

[Witch_Hunter]

some things that just don't fit, you know?

please point them out, I'm intrigued to know considering the posting has been light from that slot

Mostly it's her weak but persistent case on you, as I've mentioned in post 266.
Besides that, her ISO is strange. Too passive, answers questions but doesn't ask them nor does much that feels like she is actually involved in the game.

[Witch_Hunter]

I've noticed you've got a second completed town game in your stats. Haven't checked it out yet, but it's making me think. I thought that since you had pulled out of all your town games except one, you are likely to be scum

OMG.. did you read this>~~~?

As I have stated earlier, I scumread you because your stats indicate that you subbed out of every game that you were town, one entry notwithstanding. Also, your conversation with SRMP was what convinced us to lynch.

do you know why I subbed out of those games? no you don't. I had a real life issue that required me to sub out of all of them at the same time, go check you will see it all happened basically on the same day.

honestly you think thats a scum read do you?

as for my conversation with SRMP, you didn't vote him, so I didn't convince you did?

Agreed, this is bad. I want to see what else she has to say first, though, before deciding on a vote. Lynching town today would be bad, so let's not do this till we can be confident that's not the case here.

FoS: Bluebird

[Witch_Hunter]

MrCurlyNoodles, what's your opinion about the players you didn't mention - Belisarius, Kim, Smudger? Any one particularly towny or scummy? And concerning Bluebird and AzoriusSenate, would you join a wagon on either of them right now?

[Witch_Hunter]

AzoriusSenate, what's your take of the Bluebird situation?

[Witch_Hunter]

MrCurlyNoodles, what's your opinion about the players you didn't mention - Belisarius, Kim, Smudger? Any one particularly towny or scummy? And concerning Bluebird and AzoriusSenate, would you join a wagon on either of them right now?

MrCurlyNoddles, do you ask questions?

I'm giving him something specific, you're being grumpy.

[Witch_Hunter]

AzoriusSenate, what's your take of the Bluebird situation?

I think this needs to go to all...

Point taken, but you, me, MrCurlyNoodles and Belisarius already suspect her, and Kim is busy with his RL issues, so for the moment that leaves AzoriusSenate whose position I don't know.

[Witch_Hunter]

AzoriusSenate: we have a readlist by hiplop, post 73 IIRC. Belisarius is not listed as scum in it. Please explain how it doesn't contradict your theory. To me, it reads as if, if we're following hiplop's reads, the obvious suspect is the one with a cat avatar.

[Witch_Hunter]

@MrCurlyNoodles

, tbh Kim sitting on the fence is nothing unexpected, and the main reason I find him hard to read. I agree Bluebird's OMGUS means nothing much by itself, but scum looking at someone's wiki isn't that hard to imagine.

Smudger is grumpy, granted, but look at his actions throughout the game. The overall pattern is pretty pro-town. It seems he did misread SRMP's post 80, but look at his posts immediately prior. He was talking about readlists, same as post 80, and the misread looks like an organic part of the conversation.

AzoriusSenate was also towny on Day 1, but his current actions are perplexing. Why would anyone, town or scum, insist on such an embarrassingly weak case after its holes were pointed out?

[Witch_Hunter]

MrCurlyNoodles' s post makes sense. Belisarius is a possibility for today's lynch, but we haven't been given a good reason to do so.

For all the rest of us know, there could be a AzoriusSenate-Belisarius team and this is some weird attempt to either bus Belisarius and make Azorius look town, or lynch Azorius and make Belisarius look town. I don't know, this whole situation is strange.

[Witch_Hunter]

Witch I don't think there is a Bel-Azorious scum team. Azorious' post above looks emotive and due to frustration... it doesn't yet strike me as something scum would do. Even as a bus...

I was more defending MrCurlyNoodles by explaining to AzoriusSenate how easy it is to scumread his latest actions. Short of Azorius explaining himself, I have no idea what's going on with all this tunneling. It doesn't match his earlier behavior.
If you can convince him to present his opinion in more detail, please try. Noodles just tried and look the reaction he got.

Azorius, please work with us here. You may have seen something, but tbh you've not done a very good job of explaining it.

[Witch_Hunter]

Smudger, MrCurlyNoodles, what should we do while they have their fight? Just watch and hope for good information? Take a side? There's still a while before the deadline, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing something. Since they're not likely to be a scumteam, according to Smudger, then there's at least one more scum to find.

I'm for getting back to discussing Bluebird, as we were doing before this new situation came up. She's still lurking, so not much more to go on. Though this is a moment when town should be making some effort to help, and this inactivity isn' helpful. Smudger, do you think her case on you was town or scum?

[Witch_Hunter]

Interesting. Azorious you really have nothing as I read it Bel has negated your argument. So one question if Bel was not a lynch today who would it be in your opinion?

You guys take as long as you need to but

I'm just going to say right now I'm never removing my vote on this guy. He's scum and needs to bite the dirt so we can find the next one.

We can read for interactions right now but I think he's probably going to play today as if he's being lynched and will probably throw out a bunch of random stuff to throw us off of the second mafia.

Witch I think that Scum is somewhere here Azorious/Kim/Bluebird, in no particular order I might add

That's some progress already - we agree MrCurlyNoodles is probably town.
I'm not sure about AzoriusSenate, certainly not enough to vote him. My best guess right now is, he's town suffering from a bad case of tunneling and confirmation bias.
Belisarius still reads null, but Azorius' lack of evidence actually makes me less inclined to vote him today. Maybe it's the frustration in me speaking, that makes me wish they could be safely ignored for a while.
Kim also reads null. I'd vote him provided there was a reasonable case, but is there any to be made?
Bluebird looks like the best option so far, though it's not certain. Her latest posts offered a partial and not very convincing defense.

Smudger, MrCurlyNoodles, what should we do while they have their fight? Just watch and hope for good information? Take a side? There's still a while before the deadline, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be doing something.

I'm not sure. It feels like if we don't add on to the argument it's just going to fizzle out super quick (like it seems to already have). That being said I'm not really sure what to add past what we already have. I do agree that it's improbable for them to be a scum team but as scummy as Azorius' tunnelling is comments like this:

Join me against Kim. It is your destiny. Together we shall rule this galaxy as father and son!

Are what make me suspicious of Belisarius as well (though still more suspicious of Azorius). He also seems to be hard on the Kim train for not a very well explained reason since early in day 1.

In terms of talking about other things while they argue it out, Kim and especially Bluebird's current inactivity is unhelpful but in their absence I'm not entirely sure what there is to discuss since they're not bringing anything new. In terms of what they've done so far did you have anything specific to talk about or bring up? Which one do you find scummier?

My opinion is, being inactive at this point in the game, when we have to either lynch scum or risk everything in LyLo tomorrow, is a mild scumread. And Bluebird is the scummiest of them two, since neither of them if contributing much but at least Kim isn't neglecting his defense, since he isn't actually being accused of anything.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Kim: Thank you for the post - seriously - but we have some miscommunication here. I meant, "would you post one of your logical analyses on this game?"
Then again, ignore it for now. I'll ask again later, when the game really gets going. Just from reading other games, I hadn't realized that takes a while to happen.

did this happen?

Not specifically, since readlists were frowned upon yesterday and later I forgot about it. It's a part of the game I have to get better at, now that you mention it - interacting more with my non-townreads. Probably not what you intended, but thanks for the advice.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Belisarius:

What's your opinion about Bluebird since her latest posts?

[Witch_Hunter]

Kim who are your top three lynch candidates and why?

Top four candidates are easy, via process of elimination: you, Belisarius, AzoriusSenate, and Bluebird. Since last I posted, MrCurlyNoodles has shown both understanding of what's been happening in the game and an ability to adjust his thoughts when presented with new information (or new to him, at least).

Out of those four, as of now I think I'd put you as fourth-scummiest (or third-towniest, whichever you prefer). I probably have too much of a bias towards open-minded players, but you seem to be reading, rereading, and thinking about the game. Yay you!

These last three aren't in any particular order:

I've seen both town and scum tunnel on players before, but I haven't figured out how to tell the different alignments apart. AS's tunnel on Bel seems farfetched -- I particularly disliked 303. However, is 305 frustrated town? It feels like it to me, but I know I don't have the experience/skill/whatever to say so for sure.

Bluebird's lurking has moved her to null for me. I'm not sure it's scum-motivated lurking, but I can't rule it out. More answers/thoughts from her will hopefully help.

Belisarius' "trust me" argument for lynching me wasn't very townie, but he's dropped that now. I assume that he hasn't seen anything that changed his mind; at least he's consistent. My responses to his rationale for voting against me are in 53 and 154.

at least Kim isn't neglecting his defense, since he isn't actually being accused of anything.

A small nugget of defense on my part: hiplop had me as his second-highest townread when he was NKed. All other things being equal, scum!Kim would have kept him alive.

In short, your lynching order is approximately like most people's today.

The bad thing is, there's no strong case on anybody.
On Azorius, FWIW, since this game is my only experience so far: scum faking frustration is hardly inconceivable, but his Day 1 was convincingly townie.

Can I have your opinion about something I posted a while ago?
Post 279, concerning Bluebird:

Besides that, her ISO is strange. Too passive, answers questions but doesn't ask them nor does much that feels like she is actually involved in the game.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Kim:

Forgot to mention, your nugget of defense does make sense.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Smudger

: What's with the change of mind? Is there a method to AzoriusSenate's madness after all, or do you just want to see where this goes?

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Smudger

: What's with the change of mind? Is there a method to AzoriusSenate's madness after all, or do you just want to see where this goes?

I think we should go with it

Very well, let's go with it. I'll trust your read of the situation is the right one.

@ Belisarius:

Stating intent to hammer. Please claim. And share any helpful last thoughts, just in case you flip town.

[Witch_Hunter]

VOTE: Belisarius

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Smudger

: Question to you as SE, what was the point of AzoriusSenate's play yesterday? I can understand a PR claiming to get a lynch, or making good accusations to drive a wagon and stay incognito, but not his

apparently

lunatic playstyle. Is that a good way to play cop/tracker, or just due to his inexperience?

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Smudger

: Your post 269 is pretty good and does seem to make sense. I'll have to read Belisarius and Kim's ISOs myself to be sure, though.

[Witch_Hunter]

EBWOP: Your post 369...

[Witch_Hunter]

Azorius was a

tracker

? I was like 99% sure he was a cop who investigated me, got a Town result, and switched from me to Bel based on Bel's case on me. That was all I could think of that explained both his Day 1 and Day 2 posts.

Sorry, I don't see it - why would Azorius townreading you lead to him pushing Belisarius' wagon so hard? It's not as if he were the only one to state doubts* about your alignment.

*In Belisarius' case, "doubts".

[Witch_Hunter]

@

Witch_Doctor

: Why did you lynch without giving MCN and Blue a chance to comment on what was happening?

Because the faster the lynch, the less time Belisarius and his scumbuddy would have to develop a strategy.

Long version: Smudger's post 353, where he refused to explain his change of heart, meant he couldn't say his reasons openly. What's the one thing town shouldn't talk openly about? Power roles. So, I figured Smudger seemed to think Azorius was a cop who had scumread Belisarius.

Rereading Azorius' posts, that explained his odd behavior, his fixation with Belisarius despite an apparent lack of arguments. Rereading other people's latest posts, it seemed Smudger was the only one to see it. Maybe Belisarius himself hadn't, considering the disdain he'd shown for Azorius' 'tunneling'.

So, lynching him ASAP might possibly save a cop's life. With all due respect to MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird, I still believe it was a chance worth taking.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Bluebird:

Sorry about that. I thought it was the right thing to do, and it had nothing to do with neglecting your participation in the game.

On topic: What do you think about what's going on today?

@ Kim:

If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Smudger

: Your case on Kim is convincing. But 1) either MrCurlyNoodles or Bluebird needs to agree, and 2) he's supposed to offer his defense later today, why lynch him before that? Are you that sure about it?

[Witch_Hunter]

I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:

@ Kim:

If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?

My (flawed) thought process went something like this:

• "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
  
• "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
  Why
  is Smudger so sure?)
  
• "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
  
• "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*

Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

VOTE: Kim

[Witch_Hunter]

I'll get to Smudger shortly, but I wanted to warm up with the direct question(s) pointed my way. I think this was the only one:

@ Kim:

If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?

My (flawed) thought process went something like this:

• "AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
  
• "Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
  Why
  is Smudger so sure?)
  
• "Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
  
• "Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*

Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

VOTE: Kim

That puts me at L-1, by the way.

State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.

Which step is where my logic breaks down?

Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.

You admitted the weak point yourself: "(What I didn't think of, but should have:

Why

is Smudger so sure?)"
Basically, it doesn't fit your fondness for logic. You've been extremely cautious with your vote for the entire game, then suddenly join the Belisarius wagon without thinking a crucial detail?

I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:
[...]
He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.

Nice try. It's flattering to see this depiction of me as a diabolical mastermind of sorts. Alas, it happens to be untrue.
1) The early hammer was a calculated risk. In hindsight, it didn't work, sure. But would it have been townier to wait, then risk MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird asking "Why are you all voting for Belisarius?" and either having no answer or having to expose AzoriusSenate after his effort not to claim PR?

2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.

[Witch_Hunter]

By the way, the wiki agrees with my reasoning to hammer yesterday:

A quicklynch, as its name implies, is a lynch whose wagon builds in a relatively short amount of time.
Reckless Towns can do this on their own, of course, and the practice is frequently criticized for wasting a Day's worth of information.

However, there are pro-Town reasons to do this - for instance, if a Cop claims an incriminating result on someone, the best thing to do is quicklynch the incriminated player so as to minimize the amount of information that the scum get when deciding what to do that Night.

When driven by scum, it is an extended quickhammer.

[Witch_Hunter]

Also from the wiki, on buddying. Looking back, it matches Belisarius' behavior. Smudger and I didn't seriously suspect him for a good while, and his buddying made AzoriusSenate suspect one of us was scum. Pretty much a textbook example.

Buddying is a tactic used to subconsciously become perceived as less of a threat by another player. While this is usually done by scum, Townies have been known to do this as well.
This is typically accomplished by the buddying player acting unnaturally friendly to its target, either subtly or outright.

Originally, this made it so that once the buddying scum died, it implicated the victim they were acting friendly toward. In addition, by budding up to a victim, they will become less likely to want to lynch the buddying player in the first place.

More recently, though, this has become used as a pre-emptive accusation against anyone who acts nicely toward another player, regardless of intent.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ MrCurlyNoodles

: I don't know what's the standard procedure either. But Bluebird was annoyed at being left out yesterday, so why not wait for her input?

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Bluebird:

I wouldn't say your play sucks, but it does often feel like you're not very involved in the game. Participation isn't necessarily time demanding - sometimes, just giving your take on the latest events or asking a few questions can help. You... haven't done much of that. Even hiplop, who died in N1, has 24 posts to your 16, for instance.

That said - I believe you can see for yourself my play's been consistently pro-town and engaged in the thick of things. I believe you can see for yourself Kim's play is much more cautious and risk-adverse up to the moment his wagon got going today. I also believe Smudger's case on Kim is good, and Kim's case on me is a last attempt to save himself that hangs on forced interpretations.
If that's not the way you see things, feel free to ask questions. Otherwise, I've pretty much stated my view.

@ MrCurlyNoodles:

As far as I'm concerned, it's now up to you whether and when you want to hammer or wait for Bluebird's further thoughts. Everyone's had a say, and we don't need a consensus, but if you're willing to wait and see, then fine.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ MrCurlyNoodles:

Nobody's at L-1 since Smudger unvoted (post 429), so there's no reason not to vote if your mind's made up.

What I said to Bluebird goes to you too: I don't see a compelling case against me, but if you do, engage with me. Ask about whatever you think doesn't match.

Answering your question:
If Kim's town, I'd vote on Bluebird, basically for the reasons you mentioned. And also because, frankly, I hate the idea of losing to scum-Bluebird, with all the lurking she's done.
If both were dead and flipped town, it'd have to be one of my townreads. I'd vote you before voting Smudger, mostly because he's been way more active than you.

Smudger's town, by the way - he put a lot of pressure on SRMP, something scum'd probably avoid precisely because it drew much attention to him on Day 2.
As to the second lynch, scum-Smudger could have just stayed quiet. Probably someone else would have seen what was going on, but who else had enough towncred to gather the remaining votes to lynch Belisarius, no explanations given?

[Witch_Hunter]

I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:

1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.

This is why I shouldn't post at 4:30 in the morning. If Bel and WH are scum, there's no risk of having awkward, possibly telling reactions from MCN and Blue because they're town by default. So that's not why WH did it. (It might have not been the best move for town if WH is town, but it didn't have scum motivation.)

However: Let's look at the timeline of the posts at the end of Day 2, 2016-01-25. (That was a Monday, as you might remember if you're better about days of the week than I am.) All times UTC-6 (North American Central).

03:21: post 350, Smudger votes for Bel
06:57: post 352, WH questions Smudger about Smudger's vote
07:06: post 353, Smudger replies "I think we should go with it"
11:58: post 356, I vote for Bel
12:14: post 357, WH intends to hammer
14:31: post 358, Bel claims VT
14:48: post 359, WH hammers

WH said in 389 that Smudger's 353 was what convinced him to vote for Bel. WH also says that he reread AS and the latest posts. I guess it's possible that WH had other things to do that, along with the rereading, kept him from voting before he did, but WH posted something in this thread between 07:06 and 11:58 nine out of the 13 prior weekdays, including on both Mondays.

My hypothesis is that he was waiting to vote until Bel was put at L-1. In 389, WH said he wanted to vote as fast as possible. That was 17 minutes after Bel's claim, which is reasonable for ASAP -- it seems like the thread subscription emails get bogged down during North American work hours and unless you're using IMAP, you're not checking your mail all the time. However, it took him 16 minutes to intend to hammer after I voted.

If he was waiting, why would he do that? I don't see a town reason for doing so, but a scum reason could be that he and Bel thought AS might have had an investigative result on Bel. They decided to wait until Bel got to L-1 for WH to vote for him. As I knew before and am currently experiencing, voting for scum isn't enough to avoid scum suspicion. However, WH's intent to hammer prevented MCN and Blue from quickhammering if they figured out what was up. (Well, MCN and Blue theoretically could have hammered anyway, but that seems like a breach of etiquette to me.) This gave Bel and WH time to plot, discuss best strategies, say their final goodbyes, administer last rites, etc.

I wouldn't stake my life or any amount of money that could buy me a meal on it, but WH is still my best guess for the final scum. MCN and Blue still merit closer looks than I've given them, though (I did a dual ISO with Bel and each of them during N2, but that's all). A complete reread of the whole thread wouldn't hurt, either. (Can I get permission to skim SRMP's posts, though?)

Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself. That, or you took my comments about your passivity very seriously. Oh, you're still likely to be scum, but I'm not certain enough anymore.

UNVOTE:

I'm wondering this mostly because your nonsensical fixation with Belisarius' hammer confuses me, and I suppose scum-you could have come up with something better. After all, apparently I'm scum because I should have hammered later and given MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird time to give their opinions, and I'm also scum because I should have hammered earlier instead of letting Belisarius claim at all.

So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius? Consider the events of the previous day:

Day 1, SRMP's lynch. Sequence of relevant events:

Post 204, hiplop states intent to hammer. From my TZ, that happened on: 14 Jan 2016, 23:09
Post 217, SRMP claims "villy". 15 Jan 2016, 20:28
Post 224, AzoriusSenate hammers. 15 Jan 2016, 21:22

So, there was a precedent we were willing to wait

almost a full day

for a claim before hammering. If Belisarius needed time to discuss strategy with his scumbuddy, he could have taken plenty of time and then claimed when he was done.

No need to coordinate a hammer for whatever reason.

There was also a precedent for a relatively quickly hammer after the claim. MrCurlyNoodles asked Azorius about it later, Azorius answered (post 251), that was it. I didn't say anything about it, nor did you, nor most other players (Smudger did, because he didn't associate villy=VT and thought SRMP hadn't claimed). No big deal. Why is this any different?

Satisfied?

[Witch_Hunter]

Missed one other point:

2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.

He was lynched because AS tracked him. If someone else had realized AS was softclaiming, Bel would have been just as dead.

Likely, but Smudger had towncred which made the lynch easier, as I said earlier:

As to the second lynch, scum-Smudger could have just stayed quiet. Probably someone else would have seen what was going on, but who else had enough towncred to gather the remaining votes to lynch Belisarius, no explanations given?

Speaking for myself only, had anyone else suddenly voted for Belisarius, after completely dismissing the "case" against him, and then refused to explain why, I'd probably not join the wagon. Or rather, probably would think it was a reaction test instead of taking it seriously.

[Witch_Hunter]

Sorry I've been MIA lately guys I got real busy around halfway through the day yesterday until right about now. I'm going to hold off on voting still, waiting on bluebird's "few cases" and Smudger's 24 hours.

So is this when I hammer? Or should I wait for Bluebird's opinion etc.?

Others have said to wait for Bluebird. However, I'd add that since the game will be over if I turn up scum, you don't need to worry about what your actions will be in case I do flip scum. (Protip: I won't.) Therefore, I don't think it would hurt to take the time to think about what a townflip for me would mean to you and your opinion of the others.

I think we should talk about this in the meantime: if if IF Kim is town, who's the scummiest right now? He makes a compelling case against Witch. But Smudger has also been key to both the town lynches thus far. And bluebirds been mostly MIA/lurking pretty much all game. So I...really have no clue anyone have anything to say about this?

It's only now I noticed you're not offering much here. Everyone's scummy but yourself. Alright, but surely you think some are more scummy than others? If it were entirely up to you, what's your lynching order?

[Witch_Hunter]

The rest of my readlist, with rough scum probabilities:

MrCurlyNoodles, 22.5% -- also played well, but his response to AS's claim could be scum defending scum; a similar reaction is what broke open the Open game Smudger and I subbed out of (counterpoint: I said the same thing, and I'm town)

Bluebird, 7.5% -- really still null, but some other people look bad

Smudger, 2.5% -- maybe MCN's comment above is right, but I doubt it

Are you really saying MrCurlyNoodles is 3x more likely to be scum than Bluebird? How come?

[Witch_Hunter]

So, please walk me through this: what scum motivation would I have to hammer Belisarius?

1) To get towncred by busing him. Smudger used this against me in his case: "His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today."

2) Like I said earlier, stating intent to hammer could also buy time for last-minute strategy by dissuading MCN and Blue from quickhammering to end the day. That was the only reason I could think of for you to wait for Bel to reach L-1 before stating intent to hammer; so, why did you wait?

Do MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird really strike you as the sort of players prone to quickhammering an unclaimed L-1?
Why did I wait? Because, as I've been saying for a while (see below), I intended to hammer him after I figured out what was happening. And I could hardly do it if I voted him before he was at L-1.

@

Witch_Doctor

: Why did you lynch without giving MCN and Blue a chance to comment on what was happening?

Because the faster the lynch, the less time Belisarius and his scumbuddy would have to develop a strategy.

Long version: Smudger's post 353, where he refused to explain his change of heart, meant he couldn't say his reasons openly. What's the one thing town shouldn't talk openly about? Power roles. So, I figured Smudger seemed to think Azorius was a cop who had scumread Belisarius.

Rereading Azorius' posts, that explained his odd behavior, his fixation with Belisarius despite an apparent lack of arguments. Rereading other people's latest posts, it seemed Smudger was the only one to see it. Maybe Belisarius himself hadn't, considering the disdain he'd shown for Azorius' 'tunneling'.

So, lynching him ASAP might possibly save a cop's life. With all due respect to MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird, I still believe it was a chance worth taking.

Speaking for myself only, had anyone else [besides Smudger] suddenly voted for Belisarius, after completely dismissing the "case" against him, and then refused to explain why, I'd probably not join the wagon. Or rather, probably would think it was a reaction test instead of taking it seriously.

Smudger wasn't completely townread -- Blue had him as scum, while MCN and I were null on him. Naturally, who you listen to depends on what you think of the player.

Yet you followed his vote too, so I don't see how this contradicts what I said about his having towncred.

[Witch_Hunter]

Well now we're back to zero :S Which is fairly unhelpful. This is a post on my thoughts right now to maybe get us away from zero.

No, this isn't early Day 2 all over again. We do have a lot of things to work with.
I still think the last scum is either Kim or Bluebird, and thus we should lynch one of them today and, if this fails, lynch the other tomorrow. But getting it right today would be much better.

It's only now I noticed you're not offering much here. Everyone's scummy but yourself. Alright, but surely you think some are more scummy than others? If it were entirely up to you, what's your lynching order?

Sorry for not offering much I absolutely agree and though that post was mostly made to get some conversation going I should've added more of my thoughts. In terms of what my lynching order was at the time: Kim, WH, Smudger, Bluebird for the reasons stated in the post you're referencing.

That's something already. Now, why do you scumread Smudger more than Bluebird? Has she done anything pro-town so far? Yet she's the towniest of us all, according to your list?

I noticed this and the reason I haven't voted yet is because, as I said above, the reason I ignored the 5% uncertainty is because I trusted you and Smudger's judgement. Now Smudger is rereading and possibly changing said judgement and you seem to have followed suit while my trust of you has gone down, partially because of Kim's case, partially because of your actions since then. My certainty that Kim is scum is not high enough for me to want to put them back at L1.

Fair enough.
/Off topic, theory talk: I don't think you literally meant 95% certainty, but that's about as good as it gets. If you're only willing to act when 100% sure, then you won't be doing much unless you're a cop or tracker.

Ok, Kim, you've done it. I'm actually starting to believe you're town who sincerely scumread me, instead of scum trying to set up a crazy counterwagon to save himself. That, or you took my comments about your passivity very seriously. Oh, you're still likely to be scum, but I'm not certain enough anymore.

UNVOTE:

Speaking of scummy seeming actions since then: case in point: this feels wrong. This post isn't how you've felt to me at all this game: most of the time you stayed behind your argument until a much better one came up or they had a pretty solid defence and, as you said above, if he's the scummiest person to you why not keep your vote on him? He's not at L1. Your sudden revelation at Kim's possible townness after this:

Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.

and this:

That said - I believe you can see for yourself my play's been consistently pro-town and engaged in the thick of things. I believe you can see for yourself Kim's play is much more cautious and risk-adverse up to the moment his wagon got going today. I also believe Smudger's case on Kim is good, and Kim's case on me is a last attempt to save himself that hangs on forced interpretations.
If that's not the way you see things, feel free to ask questions. Otherwise, I've pretty much stated my view.

Also doesn't feel right. I'm not entirely sure he added anything more to his argument then bit of clarification and acceptance at some of his own flawed arguments. The sudden switch to him being "town that sincerely scumread you" feels like backing down and attempting to buddy after a possibly legitimate argument was put against you.

- He's still my strongest scumread, and I've been pretty direct about it. No buddying.
- The unvote is because I'm

less convinced

of his scumminess than before. Enough to make me doubt whether he should be lynched before Bluebird.
- His case against me is, let me say it again, nonsense. I've pointed that out to him, he openly admits it, yet he doubled down on it. I'm not quite certain whether that's scum grasping at straws or town tunneling. To repeat: probably the former, but maybe maybe the latter.

Taking all of this into account I trust WH less than i did before. If you want questions I don't really know if I have any, just these observations to how you've acted recently. That being said Kim is still the top of my scum list because ultimately I don't believe that his argument is correct. I think Witch's hammer was fine and logical and that's really the whole crux of the argument. WH's post above about how towny he's been all game, especially as opposed to Kim is correct in my opinion. His actions since then have seemed scummy to me, but in contrast Witch and Smudger's arguments agains't Kim still hold true. I'm now more like 70% sure Kim is scum and 28% sure Witch is scum. I leave the 2% for Smudger and Bluebird, Smudger because I still trust what they've done and Bluebird because it would be laaaaaaaame for the last scum to have just been afk pretty much all game. In response to my earlier question about who to vote if Kim is town, it's WH, and if both are killed and town probably Bluebird. Though I'd be uncomfortable with that lynch in general.

You acknowledge his case on me is crap, yet I'm your second option for a lynch? Damn you, Overton Window!
Ok, a slightly different order here, which makes a bit more sense. But my question of "what's so towny about Bluebird?" still stands.

[Witch_Hunter]

I also want to apologize for drunk posting. the series of posts where I continually state "Lynch Kim" or words to that effect I was drunk.

I take back what I said about your being grumpy.

[Witch_Hunter]

I have a question for everyone,

what is your take on MCN?

If Kim's town, I'd vote on Bluebird, basically for the reasons you mentioned. And also because, frankly, I hate the idea of losing to scum-Bluebird, with all the lurking she's done.
If both were dead and flipped town, it'd have to be one of my townreads. I'd vote you [MrCurlyNoodles] before voting Smudger, mostly because he's been way more active than you.

Probably town. Not very active, hasn't contributed much of the time, yet his posts overall look towny. Confused town who wants to contribute and doesn't quite know how to go about it, but town.

I've wondered whether he could be scum who participates just enough not to be seen as lurking, and contributes just enough not to draw attention to himself, but it's a fine line for newbie scum to walk. Simplest explanation, town.

[Witch_Hunter]

This is pretty much my whole reasoning. I'd hate for the last scum to be the one who did next to nothing all game so I'd rather believe it's not her. It's less that she's been towny and more that I really don't want her to be scum. She has no towncred or anything. I just really hope she's not scum.

That's... not a very good reason to townread someone.
I'm not implying anything about your alignment here, since you and Bluebird can't both be scum, and I can see no other possible scum motivation for that.

But seriously, that's really not a very good reason to townread someone.

[Witch_Hunter]

I've been thinking about MrCurlyNoodles' reads and about my own, and it leads to this:

VOTE: Bluebird

Reasoning:
1) Scum's overwhelmingly likely to be either Kim or Bluebird.
2) I'm really not sure about which one. Between Smudger's case on Kim and Bluebird's complete lack of towniness, it's hard to decide.
3) We have two shots at this: Today and, if necessary, Tomorrow.
4) If Bluebird is lynched Today and flips town, Day 4 will probably* be Kim + 2 townies. Townies lynch Kim, town wins.
5) But if Kim is lynched Today and flips town, Day 4 will probably* be Bluebird + 2 townies. If one of these townies is MrCurlyNoodles, it's possible he'll help lynch the other towny instead. Scum wins.
6) So, lynching Bluebird today is the surest way for a town win.**

Thoughts and votes, please.

* Since we still have one PR, it could be 3 townies instead, but planning for a worst case scenario is best.
** Yes, I'm fully aware this requires, besides getting Smudger's support, either a change of mind from MrCurlyNoodles (in such a case, it's a good lynch anyway) or a vote from Kim (town-Kim can be reasoned with, and scum-Kim can opportunistically help in hopes of a fighting chance Tomorrow). I'm still willing to try.

[Witch_Hunter]

I'm not willing to vote Bluebird today, I want to wait until I get answers from everyone on my question about MCN. I will though be mightily pissed if Bluebird continues to lurk and Kim, you need to get back in here and play thank you.

WH you seem to be a little perplexed?

Perplexed? Maybe a little bit, yes. I don't see any good reason Bluebird should, I won't say necessarily lynched, but dismissed as potential scum. So far, Kim's reason didn't convince me much and MrCurlyNoodles' is even worse.

Do you really believe she's probably not scum, and that's why you're not voting her, or it's just that other candidates are better?

p-edit: I've just received your post on MrCurlyNoodles, will read and comment on it later.

[Witch_Hunter]

From a quick read of Smudger's 464 and MrCurlyNoodles ISO, preliminary impression is: maaaybe. If Noodles is not a bubbly teenager*, he sure puts on a very convincing act. Other folks still look more scummy.

* If you're not a teenager, sorry about that, it's just how I picture you. Then again, I do picture Smudger as his De Niro avatar...

[Witch_Hunter]

It's not Bluebird, its between Kim and Curly

I still don't see what you see about Bluebird.
Anyway, if you're dead set on either Kim or Noodles: then Kim it is.
Because I don't see what you see about Noodles either. He often goes with the flow, but it still reads as town making an effort, and a gradually better one.

Counterargument about Noodles: if he's scum, why didn't he lynch Kim earlier when he had the chance?

[Witch_Hunter]

I have a question for everyone,

what is your take on MCN?

I'm thinking he's town right now, based on the last few pages. It's more process of elimination-type reasoning - Witch Hunter is a bit suspicious. I was looking back, and I saw in Belisarius's last post, he said this:

I'm a VT.

Scumteam stands as Kim and Bluebird. Curly's play today is town.

I'm worried about the fact WH wasn't mentioned at all, really. The comment about Curly could probably be a red herring, and I'm not sure scum would've bussed.

- On my not being mentioned: see posts 408 and 411, where Kim and I talked about this from a different angle. My take is, he didn't mention Smudger or me because his strategy on Day 2 was buddying up to us. What do you think?

- Are you really saying Kim and you are off the hook because that would be bussing, yet you suspect me of bussing Belisarius? What I am missing here?

- Also, your take on Kim would be appreciated.

/Off topic, feel free to ignore, but I'm curious: What is it you do in RL that makes you so busy the rest of us look like hobos living in a library, in front of the computer all day?

[Witch_Hunter]

Very good try, Smudger, but no way. British Robert de Niro in Arabia? You're obviously MI6.

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Smudger

: I'd like to see other people's opinions on this, of course, but my preliminary impression didn't change - this cigar's probably just a cigar.

[Witch_Hunter]

I'm aware my reason not to vote Bluebird is BS. An important aspect that I seem to have left out is the fact that, despite the fact that she's very low down on my scum scale, she's also very low on my town scale. Which seems contradictory, but in my head it's not. I have a scale in my head on the likelihood someone is town and scum, but they're two separate scales not a sliding one. For example you're 20something% (wherever I put you earlier) on my scum scale, but still a 60% on my town scale. You used to be a 100% which is why i say multiple times that my trust has gone down, but I still trust you leagues ahead of Bluebird. The fact is I don't want to lynch her because lurking scum seems lazy to me and besides lurking I haven't seen much (though there's not much to see things in). It's more of just an inner feeling of not wanting the last scum in my first game to have been inactive all game. Which is dumb I aware. But until I get less suspicious of you and Kim I don't see a reason to look further into it.

It seems everyone's scumdar here follows a different standard... your scales, my town-o-meter, Kim's percentages...

Let me put my thoughts this way: this is Day 3, don't you think by now absence - or near absence - of towniness is an important clue? It's precisely because losing to lurker scum would be extremely annoying that I'm asking you all to at least consider the possibility she's using the oldest trick in the scum book and we're letting her get away with it.

[Witch_Hunter]

- On my not being mentioned: see posts 408 and 411, where Kim and I talked about this from a different angle. My take is, he didn't mention Smudger or me because his strategy on Day 2 was buddying up to us. What do you think?

1. I didn't think of that. But it would seem that he would say you two were town if he was still trying to buddy, if not throw around more WIFOM. I realize that is a horrible post to interpret, but it's an important one, nevertheless. (Also, I completely forgot about Smudger because I wasn't looking for him.)

He said it at least twice, earlier that day (posts 241 and 267).

That said, his last post is probably one of those things that will make complete sense in retrospect, but right now are a mess.

- Are you really saying Kim and you are off the hook because that would be bussing, yet you suspect me of bussing Belisarius? What I am missing here?

2. I'm not saying that Kim and I are off the hook, just that I think it would be unlikely Belisarius would bus. Please direct me to where I said you were bussing him.

You didn't say it outright, but you said I'm suspicious. And since I joined the Belisarius wagon, that means I'd have bussed him if I were scum.

- Also, your take on Kim would be appreciated.

3. I've got a null-town reading on Kim. He seems generally agreeable, which I suppose could go both ways. I haven't noticed anything out of the ordinary. Has anything caught your eye?

Smudger has written quite the interesting case against him, post 369.
Do you still think that's a good case?

(To spare you the work of looking for my opinion - yes, I think it's good, and the only reason I'm not voting him right now is because I'm not certain about you, either.)

/Off topic, feel free to ignore, but I'm curious: What is it you do in RL that makes you so busy the rest of us look like hobos living in a library, in front of the computer all day?

4. School. Because of this, it's the time of year I probably shouldn't have chosen to play at, with projects and whatnot. I have an opening around noon, but I also have a bad prediction rate of the time it takes me to post. Then I have now, and possibly later in the evening. Weekends are better usually, but projects, yeah... Also, long phoneposts are a pain.

/Unexpectedly ontopic now: You are... a teenager? A high schooler? You said something about school before, but I assumed you were, I don't know, a teacher or something like that.
THIS is why nobody else is even considering voting for you, isn't it? I'll need a while to consider this.

[Witch_Hunter]

On Bluebird - one thing that intrigued me is that, at times, she was paying enough attention to the game to look at people's wikis (post 199, that's her Smudger vote), and at other times she seemed to miss relevant and easy to spot things (post 288, for instance). It looked like scum lurking and doing a bad job of appearing busy in RL to cover for the lack of activity here.

But a busy teenager - that's actually somewhat plausible, at least from my experience with teenagers who are really good at multitasking, but not always as good at hyperfocusing on one specific thing. It explains what is, from my POV, an oddly irregular attention span. Her posts make more sense now, yes.

That doesn't mean she can't be scum, and inactivity's still an anti-town behavior at the least. I still think it's a good lynch, but yes, lynching the lurker may not be the

best

choice.

[Witch_Hunter]

On Kim, I have to read his back and forth with Smudger once more just to be sure. That means:

I'm not hammering for the next 12 hours, at least. Folks, please share your thoughts now. If there's something that needs more time to be discussed, just ask to stay the hammer, we still have time. Bluebird, consider whether you want to hammer in case I change my mind in the meantime. MrCurlyNoodles, you still have time to unvote.

[Witch_Hunter]

Folks, this may be the game's defining moment. I'd really prefer having everyone's input first, even if it's a short "not changing vote. why didn't you hammer yet?".

Especially you, MrCurlyNoodles

, since your vote was arguably not that serious. If you're serious about it, please say so now. I have no way to know whether your silence means you're ok with this or you're busy and unaware of what's going on.

Let me propose a clearer deadline here, since the previous one was arguably vague:

I intend to hammer when 24 hours have passed since post 491, - to me, that's Feb 3rd, about 2:33 PM. Everyone has until then to speak their piece.

[Witch_Hunter]

Alright then, thanks for the posts, Noodles and Smudger.

Just in case, my reads list hasn't changed very much today. If there's a tomorrow, obviously I'd have to at least consider whether one of my townreads could be the last scum - it's not impossible Noodles is both scum and a bubbly teenager, or Smudger is a very good scum player posing as a good town player. But right now, Occam's Razor says these aren't the most likely options.

VOTE: Kim

[Witch_Hunter]

First things first: mod, folks, I'll be on V/LA from Sunday to Tuesday. Sorry about the inconvenience.

(Sunday is probably no-posts day, should manage to check the topic 1/day later)

N

o

t

e

d

-

-

P

[Witch_Hunter]

Preliminary thoughts for today:

- Smudger's death: how much did it have to do with his reads in 489? Who does it benefit?
- Kim's post 493: his most intriguing idea, pointing to Smudger as possible scum, is now proven wrong. But... why is Noodles his top scumread now?

- Smudger's strongest scumread after Kim was Bluebird, and he'd just dismissed his case against Noodles. Presumably scum-Bluebird would NK him, scum-Noodles wouldn't.
- On the other hand, who

would

scum-Noodles NK? Not Bluebird, since then he'd be Smudger's and my next option for scum. Maybe he hoped he'd be under less scrutiny from me than from the SE.
- Wouldn't scum-Bluebird NK me instead? I was the one pushing her wagon yesterday. Or would that be too obvious, and Smudger's also a good and more WIFOM kill?

- Strongest scumread is still Bluebird.
- But the alternative must be considered. Must reread what Kim posted about Noodles.

[Witch_Hunter]

Since everyone else is quiet at the moment - I had gathered some evidence to "prove" Smudger was a British spy, in case he'd answered to the "charge". Here it is, before we get to today's Mexican standoff:

From his profile:

• Male!

• Currently in an "exotic" place!

2)How about on-site games? If so; How Many?- I was active up until about a year or so ago, then RL had me put MS on the backburner, this is my 8th game since coming back.

A busy RL that sporadically takes priority over playing! What's more important than lynching virtual scum? Eliminating the real kind!

3) How would you describe yourself as an individual? - angry old man... seriously I would say I am fairly balanced but have a slight aggressive nature at times

Aggressive nature, usually kept under control! Perfect for the job!

4) What do you think you will be remembered for this game? - no Idea, having fun and playing a good game hopefully

Likes to have a good time! Every good agent prizes their R&R!

ok .. I have to claim..... MY GF is Canadian...... I love her......

Has a

Bond girl

foreign girlfriend!

I'm British btw...

Is British!

I also want to apologize for drunk posting. the series of posts where I continually state "Lynch Kim" or words to that effect I was drunk.

When drunk, instinctively wants to kill bad guys!

Conclusion: obviously a double-0 agent protecting his decadent empire's interests... in the Gulf of Aden! Or is it the 2022 World Cup? Or oil? Something something Saudi princes?

[Witch_Hunter]

Please do - I wonder what you'll come up with.

I mean, the person I think is scummiest says I'm scum, hardly surprising. I offered to talk about any doubts you had yesterday, but LyLo is better, alright. Let's do this.

[Witch_Hunter]

For obvious reasons I'm not voting yet, but it's hard to interpret your gameplay as town.

Plenty of posts (relatively speaking) during RVS - 5 out of your current 22 (6, 14, 18, 29, 47).
When people began to suspect you, you've kept a low profile, doing little to no scumhunting and not voting after Day 1.
Day 2, nothing much happening. A few defensive posts, that's it.
Day 3, you're fine with either wagon at first 427 (mine or Kim's), yet you make no effort to push either of us. In 460, you're suspicious of me, giving no better reason than Belisarius not mentioning me in his claim. I post a defense, hoping to get some sort of reaction, your answer is completely noncommittal, offering no strong opinions about anyone - 477. Then in 492, no reasons given again, Kim's the most reasonable vote. Not that you're willing to actually vote him.

In short, low activity, which in itself isn't that bad. People are busy sometimes. But that combined with no scumhunting, being reactive most of the game, and very nonconfrontational behavior...

From my perspective, this is either very bad town or pretty good scum. From your posts, you're probably a smart person. A hypothetical Stupid!Bluebird might be unaware lurking her way to LyLo is anti-town, because it completely messes things for the other town, but the real Bluebird is most likely aware of it. Why would she do such a thing nonetheless?

Only one explanation fits, doesn't it?

[Witch_Hunter]

Something interesting to consider: the NKs.

AzoriusSenate was a PR and thus any scum's obvious choice. But why did scum kill hiplop and Smudger? Well, maybe it has something to do with their read lists:

Reads right now for those viewers at home
Town
Witch
Kim
Noodles
AzoriiiousSenate

Null
Smudge
Belisarius
(Cmon SE's, get more active )

Scum
Bluebird
Some Random Mafia Player - Seriously, this is not a town mindset

Hey Kim. I'm about to start drinking as I am out with friends. So before I do Start I will say my gut and head tell me it's you. I am not changing my vote if I'm wrong then my head then says Blue, my gut then says MCN... And that little voice that sometimes haunts me keeps whispering it could be WH.... So that's where I am at..., you are scum my case is good. I will not be posting again until my A M which is in about 12 hours

Both of which share one scumread. The second strongest in both cases, in fact.

But if you think it's more likely I killed two strong players who strongly townread me, and whom I could have just sheeped my way to victory if I were scum, just so I could go to LyLo with two people who were suspicious of me on Day 3... really, I don't know what to say then. Occam is crying somewhere.

[Witch_Hunter]

Sorry about the hypothetical stupid! Bluebird comment, actually. There was no need to be offensive. You're probably the last scum, but that's no reason to be disrespectful.

[Witch_Hunter]

MrCurlyNoodles: if I were scum, killing you might point to me, so I suppose I'd have killed Bluebird for maximum WIFOM. That, or maybe killing nobody and having an easy MyLo.

Unfortunately, Kim suspected you but never gave a good reason why, and I didn't find much that Smudger didn't already mention. I'll have to go with yesterday's reads and hope for the best. If I've misread you badly all this time, good job.

Is that a reaction test, or do you want something specific? I'm WH, my quest is to find and kill Belisarius' scum partner, my favorite color is green.

[Witch_Hunter]

Bluebird, now I'm feeling worse about it than before. I can be awfully competitive at times, and I'm taking this game a bit seriously, but I don't want to be a dick who spoils others' fun. I know I'm no great player either, it's just that I'm putting more time into this than I probably should.

And hey, regardless of how this game ends, I'd really like playing with everyone here again - provided SRMP has learned how to format his posts.

So, if you felt offended by anything I said, please don't take it seriously - that's just me being an idiot. Once more, sorry. We cool?

[Witch_Hunter]

Back on topic, I can only imagine I'm still alive because there were more valuable townread players to be killed first.

I had an idea about how to conftown one of us three, making things a little bit clearer. Any reason we shouldn't have a massclaim today?

[Witch_Hunter]

@ Bluebird

: Today is the proper day to be paranoid. My instinct is to believe he's town and you're not based on everything we've been through so far - then I think that maybe, just maybe, that's just as he planned. Not much evidence to believe that, though - even Smudger didn't find much to go on, and it's something he considered seriously, judging by yesterday.

No reason not to be open about the massclaim - MrCurlyNoodles has already said the most important thing, and any of us could arrive at that conclusion - one of us is a VT, one is a PR and one is scum. Scum's going to claim one of the former two roles, which means one of us won't be counterclaimed, and is therefore conftown.

Let's begin the last act in our game then. I'm the 1-shot Bulletproof. Tried to stay active, be obvtown and participate in each day's most convincing wagons in hope scum'd see me as a threat and waste a NK. That didn't go as planned.

[Witch_Hunter]

VOTE: Bluebird

Why am I not surprised? And what are you doing not voting now?

MrCurlyNoodles, we're all curious to see what you're going to do now. I don't need to tell you which claim I find more credible, hopefully. Anything else before you decide?

[Witch_Hunter]

As far as other lynch candidates if Bel was dead, I'm looking at Witch and I'm looking at Smudger.

Azorius, if that's any consolation - that post of yours made us panic. You found one scum and were

this

close to finding the other. We thought I'd be likely to start day 3 at L-1. What made you suspect Beli so early?

Btw, my proudest achievement in this game: I was the first to identify you as a PR.

[Witch_Hunter]

For me, the game was entertaining and a good time, but I'm also glad it's over. I

am

a competitive bastard who spent more time than I should playing this, and, well... I signed up hoping to play as a detective, not as a lying killer. In retrospect, maybe that explains why I was so eager to make small talk (which had the benefit of being 100% true).

At least I found a way to use one of my RL skills - terrible leader, but a pretty good number 2. Worked twice, even if the first one was completely unplanned.

[Witch_Hunter]

As far as other lynch candidates if Bel was dead, I'm looking at Witch and I'm looking at Smudger.

Azorius, if that's any consolation - that post of yours made us panic. You found one scum and were

this

close to finding the other. We thought I'd be likely to start day 3 at L-1. What made you suspect Beli so early?

Btw, my proudest achievement in this game: I was the first to identify you as a PR.

I was having a hard time reading Bel D1 so I tracked him to get any info I could. It just so happened I caught him killing poor hiplop. I guess it's a good thing that I had scum on the ropes. If we had rolled a doctor instead of a BP this game would be a town win.

Most likely, yes. Town played a good game and I wasn't sure how it'd end up to the last minute. If the setup had been a bit more favorable to you? Town win for sure.

[Witch_Hunter]

Btw, a short summary of the game from a scum perspective:

Day 1, easy as pie. So was Day 2, up to the moment I noticed you wouldn't give up and I asked Beli "hey, either he has the worst case ever or he's a cop. What do you think?"
Then we panicked and agreed I'd quickhammer him and end the day quickly before things got worse.
Day 3 was the hardest - Kim's case and vote for me was the second moment of panic. I somehow managed to BS my way through his arguments, but Noodles noticed. Last moment of panic - I thought I'd lost Day 4 there and then, before it even began.

Btw, Noodles - you improved a lot through the game and were a serious problem for me during Day 3. Very good.

And Kim, my second proudest achievement was lynching you. I'd been trying to do it ever since that post that made hiplop read me as town - the original intent was to make people suspicious of you.
Seriously, if only people had paid attention to your case against me, you'd have won.

[Witch_Hunter]

On a more general note, hope everyone enjoyed the game, folks! Sorry about all the deception, but I think you deserved my best. Hiplop is a very good IC, Beli a very good scumbuddy, and the townies were constantly

this

close to winning. More importantly, I really enjoyed your company.

The dead PT is very informative, btw - for instance, I complained a lot in the scum PT about Azorius' approach on Day 2 not making much sense, even though his reads were excellent. Now it makes sense - what he did and what he could have done.

[Witch_Hunter]

AHHH sorry guys reading over the dead thread I realized so many things I should have noticed/done better. Ah well, good job WH! It was fun

If it helps, I'm learning a lot from that thread too.
And you'll probably like my comments in the scum PT when it's open - day 3 had a lot of "Kim is dangerous, and underestimating Noodles was a damn stupid mistake".

But yes, it was fun, wasn't it?

[Witch_Hunter]

Well played Witch Hunter, you had me fooled until my read back the night you killed me, when alarm bells did begin to chime a little, but all too late. I really liked your play style it suited this game very well. You did make a few mistakes which the other more experienced players picked up on in the dead thread, so you should go read them. I will openly admitted I had you pegged as town early in the game. however I was always wondering thus my post about that voice that kept saying WH.. maybe I will listen to it more next time.

Noodles, you had a great game too, you really did explain yourself well and I had you pegged as town after your defence of my case against you, well played and bad luck on the end game, but good luck in your future games.

BlueBird you played ok, but you need to be more assertive. I know its not easy and you are looking at the experienced players to guide you, but remember they may actually be playing against you, please don't take to heart my comments in game about your play, and I apologise if it was too strong. Its a frustrating game and generally when someone is not playing well others push the slot to see what falls out and also who else attacks on the back of the push.

Bel, Azor and Kim, thanks for the game guys, looking forward to playing with or against you all again in the future....

SRMP sorry for D1, but you really confused me and your posting style and way of responding was not helping me see the wood for the trees.

Plotinus thank you for hosting a great game and see you around soon I hope, Marquis, thanks for backing Plot up.

ok I will go read the Mafia Thread etc...

Thank you, and playing with you was a good learning experience -you're a capable town leader, and freaking EXCELLENT at pushing people.

[Witch_Hunter]

ok I will go read the Mafia Thread etc...

It's probably the only scum PT you'll ever read containing an educated discussion about Mozart.

Don't you mean an educated monologue by you while I LOL'ed?

[Witch_Hunter]

GG, everyone! Loved playing with you all. Thanks for the advice... I don't really have any for anyone, unfortunately.

The only advice I can offer takes us back to the library hobos joke - your problem was a lack of time, not skill. Read your ISO, you'll probably agree you played well in the early game and endgame; not coincidentally, the very moments you managed to post more.

[Witch_Hunter]

Admittedly I totally forgot there was anything except vanilla town and maf in this game so that was legitimately unexpected. Looking back that makes a lot of sense though Now I feel dumb. Well sweet, one down one to go ladies and gents. Though we're also down a tracker which is rough.

I noticed the VT slip here, but it seemed so intentional it couldn't be taken as anything but deliberate WIFOM.

[Witch_Hunter]

Smudger: I hope the scum PT satisfied you about my newbness.

[Witch_Hunter]

Hey, good to see you're still around, that probably means other games were more to your liking.
And please, no more impenetrable quotewalls next time, ok?