Newbie 2118 | Terrieresque! - Day 4

[Merlyn]

Greetings all, Let's have a good game!
VOTE: MafiaSSK I mean, it's right there in your name, probably solved this thing

[Merlyn]

1) Canada, UTC -6
2) I have played werewolf IRL (@Jason YES to one night ultimate werewolf), and online not at all
3) Special roles all the way, like seer and insomniac in werewolf

Jason, can you clarify for me if your vote is still RVS?

[Merlyn]

Jason, can you clarify for me if your vote is still RVS?

Nope, not RVS, kinda weird to be random past the first vote.

Okay, good to know, thank you.

Stop mischaracterising it as a random vote. Once I can forgive, twice is being quite deliberately disingenuous.

With that being said, I think it's fairly obvious that I want us out of RVS. Do us all a favour and think critically for a moment about why my (I can't emphasise this enough -

Deliberate

) vote is there and the positive conversation that has come from it.

Leaving aside the whole thing that's going on about when a game should get out of RVS, I want to ask you about this, Delta, and make sure I get what you're saying- your vote is not an RVS vote because it's not random? As in, you voted for MafiaSSK because you think they're scum? I'm asking this because I want to understand what you mean when you say your vote was not random/RVS.

[Merlyn]

Yeah nah Jason is today's lim.

Ninja'd: Will respond to that when I get time.

Huh? It's day 1 of 10. There's like 3 or 4 people who haven't even posted yet.

UNVOTE: MafiaSSK
VOTE: Deltabreedy

[Merlyn]

I don't see anyone else besides you with a vote on delta, doesn't that make it E-3?

Guess I'd better unvote in case I'm about to screw us all over.

UNVOTE: Delta

[Merlyn]

Just saw the vote count, my bad

[Merlyn]

@Merlyn: I gonna just basically assume for the time that you basically have a vote on Delta, but do you have any thoughts on anyone else at the current time, anyone seem town/Mafia?

Deltabreedy: You and delta have had a big go at each other, and it's all any of us have talked about. I think Delta started this, even though you both haven't really let it go. Unless you're both bussing each other as scum (which my paranoid mind has thought about several times today), I find this the most suspicious thing in the game so far.

MafiaSSK: Has been talking in the game, which is great. They have all been about the Delta/Jason rumble so far, so it's hard to read into anything beyond that SSK seems to be supporting Jason.

JasonWazza- I'm leaning towards Delta for scum, so that's why I'm leaning towards town for you. I’m not sure if this fight between you and delta is manufactured. My gut says its real, but my head says there’s no way to know for sure.

SolidSnake- hasn’t posted

SeeEmpty- Has not posted much, and they have all been either about the Delta/Jason rumble or asking questions about the game mechanics- hard to read into anything right now. Still has a random vote up, though.

Kowahbunga (SE)- Has an RVS vote turned real on SSK that I just realized we’re not talking a lot about. SSK thinks that the idea that scum want a longer RVS is wrong, and Kowah feels that’s a scummy mindset. Now that I’ve gone back and read their posts I’m interested in this. This looks like real hunting to me, unless the community generally feels the way that SSK does about the trope. Then it would seem odd to harp on it to me. Anyone who’s played in some previous games, any takes on who is right here?

T3 (SE)- 2 posts, in one of which he finds Delta non-scummy. Has promised more content, so I’ll be waiting for that to form an opinion.

Venmar (SE)- hasn’t posted

My overall take is that we need to be talking about more stuff than the RVS argument that broke out to get more to go on.

[Merlyn]

I'll note the distance between Delta/Kowah is big compared to the distance between the bottom of the list

If it's so big, why the unvote? For that matter, why skip Kowah and vote me?

VOTE: Mewtaph I think it's wild that your first post in game is to join a bandwagon that seems to have sprung up suddenly.

[Merlyn]

I'll note the distance between Delta/Kowah is big compared to the distance between the bottom of the list

If it's so big, why the unvote? For that matter, why skip Kowah and vote me?

@Merlyn - Any reason you're not voting anyone now?

VOTE: Mewtaph I think it's wild that your first post in game is to join a bandwagon that seems to have sprung up suddenly.

EBWOP, messed up my quoting

[Merlyn]

I think there may be a vote here. If so, it needs to be outside of quotes.

Sorry fferylit, it was a vote.

@Merlyn why do you think Mewtaph's is wild? Do you disagree with them?

I did say why I thought it was wild.

I think it's wild that your first post in game is to join a bandwagon that seems to have sprung up suddenly.

I was expecting in good faith that it would generate discussion and allow us to get into a readable game-state at pace. It worked.

What I wasn't expecting was to have my points misquoted and misrepresented, my intentions

lied

about, my character attacked with accusations of trolling, accused of stifling conversation (this used to be laughable, now it makes me bloody angry because it's the most obvious wilful misinterpretation of events going), and for people to not even acknowledge the lies, even when I quoted them and put them plainly.

I don't agree with you that Jason lied. You seem to have a very specific definition of random, and it doesn't conform to what the mafia glossary says random voting is. It doesn't mean that he lied about you making a random vote. I actually don't agree with you either about the definition of random vote tbh. I'm also surprised to see you taking the tone of 'how dare you attack my character', because you've thrown around some insults yourself. You said that Jason was either scum or a 'bad, washed-up townie', which I thought was kind of an ugly thing to say.

[Merlyn]

If they thought I was scum, putting me at E-2 would be a good thing - the rapid retraction in case of a mistake doesn't read as coming from town for me. Kind of interchangeable with Mafia below for me

It just seemed way too soon to me to have someone at E-2 because of me. It was only the first 24 hours of the game, some people hadn't even made posts yet.

As several people have said, if 2 people hopped onto the wagon and hammered in pages 1-3, we'd have headed into D2 with a limpool of 5, not 7 because that would damn near confirm 2 scum on the wagon.

Are you saying that it would have been better if I'd stayed on the wagon and then you got eliminated? I'm not sure that's what you're saying, that's why I'm asking for clarification

@mewtaph- has anything happened since your vote to change your mind, or are you still feeling good? Any other thoughts on players?

[Merlyn]

Okay, I get why you're saying that now. I didn't have conviction behind my vote- it was way, way, too early to contemplate lynching someone. I had intended it as a pressure vote to see how you'd react, and I thought the vote made it E-3, which seemed a nice place to put pressure on. When I saw it was E-2, I felt like I was letting myself get carried into something I hadn't meant to.

I also think calling out the E-2 reads town for Jason. If he were scum, why not just let things carry on without putting on the brakes?

[Merlyn]

(just a quick aside re: the use of the word elimination here - thanks for telling me that, delta, I didn't even think about it and that's a good change.)

UNVOTE: Unvote Delta
VOTE: Vote Mewtaph

I see but I still don't see why you think that. Do you think it is not possible that they just think that? Especially since they just joined, it's not like they were hiding and then just jumped into a wagon

Sure, it's totally possible. They did just join, haven't heard much from them yet. But why is your automatic response to think 'town' of his actions? They weren't hiding, but the votes for SSK came on really quickly, and I think that's worth looking into.

@Bewolkt can I hear what you're thinking on other players? I'm assuming from your posts that you think delta is town, but I don't see much else yet. what else are you thinking?

[Merlyn]

I like to get my sights set on someone and focus in on them on D1. I hunt for one scum and find it. From there, I begin using information that actually exists... Like the final wagon of each day, the night kill.

But what hunting are you doing? Just a minute ago you doubled down that your vote was a gut feeling.

Holy crap I can't post without seeing the little warning that someone else is posting x5 now...

[Merlyn]

@Merlyn: At this point, nothing has happened to make me change my read on SSK. I don't have very strong reads outside of the top posters but that should come with time.

Ugh, I'm so frustrated by this non response. I recognize that you post in an opposite time zone from me, so our conversation is always going to lag. But that means I was really hoping you'd maximize your time and dig into the game. You've basically had nothing to say since your first post and vote.

[Merlyn]

Merlyn, can you really talk?

You didn't even respond to my vote on you at any point, let alone this vote of yours could be on anyone, not just Mewtaph, yet you focus specifically on Mewtaph out of everyone.

I know you say can't be assed, but if you don't mind I'll continue to look for scum.

I did respond to you, btw- I asked why you were voting for me and you told me my read sucked. It was clear it was a pressure vote, and I suspect what you really mean when you say I didn't respond is that I didn't start endlessly arguing with you, which seems to be kind of your playstyle.

[Merlyn]

your looking for scum, then i'm sure you have something better then everyone could be mafia right?

Your clearly focused on Mewtaph, who is the second scum, considering your basically only focusing there, surely you know the second scum player right?

Do I truly not understand how this game works? Because there's literally a whole week left to go. That's a lonnnnng time, and the point of that long time is to try and get everybody to talk, get some reads from them based on it. Look at Mewtaph's posts- there is nothing there yet to know if they're scum or not. So I'm prodding them to talk. I don't have something better than anyone could be mafia right now, that's what I'm trying to use 7 more days to figure out.

[Merlyn]

To make it clear, is your vote to pressure me to talk or is it because of my vote on MafiaSSK? You've said it's both at different times.

??? I want to pressure you to talk

because

of your vote on SSK. Which you still aren't doing, btw.

Scum v Scum - possible but I think highly unlikely

In the beginning I kept flip flopping on this as a possibility, I agree- but it's pretty clear to me by now that it wasn't a manufactured fight but instead either two assertive townies with a personality clash or a scum provoking town situation.

In fact, why is the assumption being pushed that the limpool today is solely Jason & I?

Is it? There are no votes on Jason rn

[Merlyn]

I find it's much more effective to find scum and lim them when you're alive, not dead.

I really hate this POV, delta. Somebody said earlier but I can't find it that they'd been in games where town loses because people are focused too much on individual survival. Town massively outnumbers scum and you win even if you personally die as long as town wins. The only people who should care about personal survival are mafia.

[Merlyn]

Because at the moment you're operating from a position of certainty that I'm scum, in order for what you're saying to be consistent with your actions.

Why don't you just admit that you're Mafia and that you're sheeping EgoTown?

He absolutely did not say that. He said this:

I think if either Jason or Delta flip scum, then the other is town. I don't think their interactions with each other is scum v scum.

Town v Town - possible
Town v Scum - possible
Scum v Scum - possible but I think highly unlikely

and he was responding to this:

What information would we gain if Delta flips town/scum?

By your definition, would you say we would be also getting the same amount of information if we flip you instead?

It's an answer to a hypothetical question SE was asking

You really are pushing a narrative here. SE, Kowah, and Jason most certainly did not suddenly start talking about 'we have to lim Jason or Delta'.

[Merlyn]

Like Kowah literally says it's a 'fact' that I got a red role pm, but now y'all are letting him get away with saying I 'could' be town?

And I'm the one creating a narrative. Okay

Yes, you are- the thing you are creating as a narrative was that kowah was chaining lims. I explained, using direct quotes, why that wasn't the case, and you've somehow twisted that into saying the player voting for you is trying to be wishy washy with their opinions. There is so much dancing and dodiging here, delta, and it doesn't read like a town response to me.

UNVOTE: Mewtaph
VOTE: Deltabreedy

[Merlyn]

There's no dancing or dodging! I LITERALLY ADMITTED WHERE I MISREAD THINGS

Where??

[Merlyn]

But....that's not- you are talking to Jason in that post, not Kowah.

[Merlyn]

Well, shit.

UNVOTE: Deltabreedy

I have to go to bed, and I don't want a hammer before we get a chance to talk about this.

[Merlyn]

Well, shit.

UNVOTE: Deltabreedy

I have to go to bed, and I don't want a hammer before we get a chance to talk about this.

@Merlyn - You initial reads are everybody's null except Delta scum. Since then there are so much more content now, what is your updated read?

Delta- It actually makes me really uncomfortable that delta has flat out said he wants to lim Jason even if he's town. But honestly, reading his posts back in iso, he's been very consistent in being a straight talker and up-front with how he feels about players, so it's not out of character that he would want to get rid of someone he says is ruining the game for him. I can't in good conscience vote for him with a claim out. I might need to just admit that I was wrong and I suck at hunting scum so far.

Jason- I'm not feeling this wagon. Jason still reads town to me. Yes, he is very aggressive and can be insulting. To my knowledge neither are scumtells. I think he's letting his personal feelings about delta get in the way of scum hunting and tunnelling on delta. @Jason, is there anyone else you would focus on besides Delta, since it must be clear that's not the way the vote is going this day?

SeeEmpty- has emerged for me as a consistent scum hunter and great at asking the tough questions, very townish to me. His 337 post made me WIFOM about Jason for quite a while and I almost re-wrote this whole post. But in the end even if I'm wrong I just don't agree about Jason for the reasons above.

SSK- leaning town for me. Going back to their posts in iso, I see good examples of scum hunting, asking questions about inconsistencies.

T3- null read. In these last two pages, he's been giving me more town vibes with the scum hunting he's doing, but I need more posts to really get a read.

Mewtaph- Scummish. I don't like that they called out Bewolkt for not voting when they have never voted yourself. I don't like that they asked for a push on SSK instead of just making a push yourself. A fence-sitter.

Kowah- I don't like their sudden Jason vote. Most of their posts have been re: the argument about whether or not folks can effectively hunt scum on D1, but the ones that do have content: in 138 they call SSK scum and in 139 they call delta scum. Why did they drop SSK as the other prime suspect and suddenly go with Jason? Actually, reading back I realize they have a history of this. In 193 SSK points out that Kowah jumped on the delta train just as fast. I think they are hopping from bandwagon to bandwagon.

Bewolkt- ??? There's nothing to go on here, it's frustrating.

After my read through I see Kowah as the most likely wolf. VOTE: Kowahbunga

[Merlyn]

Jason as you once told me there are two scum to hunt. Is there anyone else you plan to focus on besides delta? Maybe tell us without calling all of us stupid and useless.

[Merlyn]

The biggest red flag for me is how they've avoided voting someone for a ridiculously long amount of time.

You didn't vote for a long time, either.

[Merlyn]

Well, shit.

UNVOTE: Deltabreedy

I have to go to bed, and I don't want a hammer before we get a chance to talk about this.

Specifically the "well, shit" bit feels like a forced reaction, but the bit after the unvote has caught my eye the most. The reason the first bit feels fake is that it's emotion that shows they believe the claim, but then still think there's a chance the claimed town tracker is hammered? I can't explain it, because it's very likely only to be me that reads it this way. But it just feels like a forced reaction.

Maybe it's easy to ignore this when reading back, but things were flying that day. Ff you look at the timestamps between post 230 (where things really pick up and people are posting fast and furious) and post 290 where delta claims you can see that in a little over 5 hours, over sixty posts were made. They were heated posts, too, people losing tempers right and left (yourself included, kowah) and I know I was feeling worked up. I stayed up way later than I intended because I kept coming back and refreshing. It's not that I was sure about the claim, but I was sure had to get that unvote out before leaving or I might wake up to a big mistake I was part of.

[Merlyn]

MafiaSSK not posting at all is not a good look but it's also not very entertaining to elim a slot that has been inactive for over 48+ hours.

I definitely don't think entertainment value should be a factor in deciding who to lim. If the slot is scum, that doesn't change regardless of posting activity.

Trusting my initial instincts, MafiaSSK is my pick for scum, followed by bewolkt. The problem is that no-one else seems to be on the same wavelength as me with regards to these two players, making it difficult to exert pressure and try to establish wagons on these players. The closest that I got to that was at my very first post. Since then, two wagons have occurred, on Delta and Jason, and that's it.

I'm contradicting myself on my last post regarding MafiaSSK but I would say this is where my head is at currently.

If you still think SSK is scum, why are you voting for your second choice? I read what you said above, but there's no wagon out on bewolkt either right?

[Merlyn]

@MOD: fferyllt, would you mind putting up a vote count?

[Merlyn]

egopost
UNVOTE:
Going afk pretty much right now, I'll start reading later tonight but probably never finish so if there's anything in particular you think I should look back at, please point it out.

Everyone's current reads, but you probably already know that. For you, I would in particular look at the all-encompassing fight that your predecessor was a part of that kind of dominated the early pages, leading up to your predecessor claiming. It kind of took over the early game and influenced the way a lot of us think (either thinking town or thinking scum) of your slot, and also I think influencing the way a lot of us think about Jason (again either thinking town or scum, a lot of it comes from that fight).

[Merlyn]

@Alianna, have you had a chance to get some reads going yet?

[Merlyn]

Kinda concerns me that you managed to find that in 6 minutes.

I get the logic behind this, but I think the way Jason expresses this scumread is bad.

What about it is bad??

Let me put this another way- how could he have phrased it that would make it 'good' in your eyes?

[Merlyn]

I'm going to actively sheep Umlaut from here. I need to see flips now.

Kowah, does this mean you plan to do whatever umlaut does until D2? That may not be what you're saying, so that's what I'm asking.

[Merlyn]

I'm going to actively sheep Umlaut from here. I need to see flips now.

Kowah, does this mean you plan to do whatever umlaut does until D2? That may not be what you're saying, so that's what I'm asking.

Im voting with them from here on.

Why?

[Merlyn]

Why umlaut specifically?

[Merlyn]

I know its a lot to ask of a player on Day One, but because I'm choosing to believe the claim, that means of everyone else here I completely trust that Um is not going to make a decision that would purposefully hurt town.

You're forgetting that you should know one more confirmed town: yourself. I believe the claim, and I also know that I'm town, so I trust myself not to make a decision that would purposefully hurt town.

While all of my reads at this point are just as much speculation as theirs will be, it makes more sense to me to take a back seat and let them decide where to go.

This is a fallacy. You and umlaut SHOULD have exactly the same amount of information available to you in order to speculate. It actually doesn't make more sense to 'take a back seat' to someone who should be your identical equal. Actually, if anything, you should know MORE if you believe the claim- a town Kowah should now know 2 people that are definitely town, yourself and umlaut. A town Umlaut only knows themselves for sure.

My speculation is not going to help anyone today.

It would help the rest of the town have be able to read you. You staying a mystery is really only helpful to scum.

I'm ready for real information. I want to see some flips so I can start making educated guesses instead of uninformed guesses.

This is what I mean above- you want educated guesses after a flip. What will you be basing your educated guesses on, Kowah? It will be from all the things we wrote so far. Your strategy will provide no 'real information' to the rest of us because you will not be doing anything of your own agency.

I would much rather follow Umaut to a town lim than be fooled into the town lim that scum want. However, I know that Umaut is not intentionally pushing town like scum will be. Which means there's a MUCH higher chance Umlaut hits scum with their decision compared to any other player I may choose to listen to.

I just really want to drive the incorrectness of this view home- YOU as town should have a higher chance than umlaut to hit scum, because you should know about TWO town (umlaut and yourself) and umlaut would only know one.

I think this is about the scummiest strategy you could take. You're following a strategy that not only makes no sense, but provides as little possible information about you in the process. I'm happy with my vote on you, and I'll keep it there. I'm also happy to give a final D1 listread, but not so that I can hand everything over to umlaut.

[Merlyn]

Why the hell not?

[Merlyn]

My entire point is that you SHOULD be including yourself. You talked about chances, right? You said 'umlaut has a MUCH higher chance to hit scum'. Let's break that down. If Umlaut is town, they know about themselves and themselves only- the claim didn't change things, bc they always had that info. So, they have 8 available suspects to them. For the rest of town, however, if we believe that claim then we know 2 town- umlaut and ourselves. We have 7 available suspects to us. The 'chances' to hit scum are actually higher for everyone else.

I read the topic you linked to. They suggest that this strategy be used
1) when town is losing
2) when this condition is met:

If the town can settle on one strong consensus townread, that person can decide upon an elimination target, and everyone can agree before the target is decided that they will sheep the consensus townread, regardless of their own reads on the situation

You didn't bring this strategy up, have us settle on a consensus townread, and get us all to agree to sheep beforehand. Without it, it takes away all the benefits that this person was espousing.

I think you had this thread in your back pocket to pull out if someone questioned your strategy, without any intention of actually following it.

[Merlyn]

So, they have 8 available suspects to them. For the rest of town, however, if we believe that claim then we know 2 town- umlaut and ourselves. We have 7 available suspects to us. The 'chances' to hit scum are actually higher for everyone else.

Hate doing this, but since we are going basically full theory, this is actually dead wrong, your assumption basically boils down to umlaut has to be town because they claimed, that isn't always true, and can actually be worse (there's a non-0 chance that they are scum.)

Therefore there is a chance that you are just following scum, and will lim town 100% of the time.

This all depends on what odds you put on everything of course, but it basically makes this theory bad this early on.

I can see the sense in this. I don't know if I'm making it clear what bothers me is that this theory is what Kowah is saying he's basing his decisions on- he believes the claim, and so he's saying that umlaut is the most trustworthy person here, even over himself. I can't get my head around this tbh.

Kowahbunga

This isn't a townread as much as it is an anti-scumread (does that make any sense?), but I wouldn't be comfortable voting this today. I decided I'd do some meta and their D1 here drew a lot of parallels with their D1 in this towngame.

I really appreciate you finding and showing this game. I have to admit that that's exactly the way kowah is playing in this game too. I'd be really curious to see if that's how he plays every game, regardless of alignment.

That being said, Kowah- seeing this post of yours in the other game really raises my blood pressure. Town lost. You said you felt you played awful. Why would your strategy work here when it didn't work there?

I hate that you've come into two different games and said, "I know what the rules are and how the game is played, but I don't like it. I would like to play this other very specific way that we definitely won't do here and since I can't have that, I will just not engage." Is someone out there forcing you to play? Why not go mod your type of game instead?

@Merlyn - A couple of things to address here.
1. Klick's thread only said that a situation where town is losing was a clear example of when to use the strategy, not that it was the only example.
2. I think it's plausible that Kowah could read that thread and decide to follow the strategy themselves without organizing the whole town. Especially since they expect people won't agree with their opinions (which is true).
[/quote]

This is plausible, I will admit that. But I don't think it's likely.

[Merlyn]

Apologies, that broken quote is from Alianna.

[Merlyn]

I do see that I'm tunneling a bit here, and I would rather change my vote that have no elimination happen. But I didn't think SSK was scummy and I don't see anything from Alianna that makes me change my mind.

[Merlyn]

What are your current reads on Jason and Mewtaph?

Jason is one of my strongest townreads. I the very, very beginning I wondered if I was seeing two scum bus each other because the fight between him and dominated the whole game, but I started to see it as a town-on-town fight by about page 3. I know this is gut, but I just don't believe scum would get as swept up in the tunnel the way Jason and Delta did on each other. To me it's clear it was just two players with a spectacular personality clash, and thus NAI. I do also think Jason rubbed people the wrong way in the beginning of this game, but that's in the past- he's apologized, totally changed his attitude, and I find his posts insightful and focused on scum hunting in other places than the delta/umlaut slot.

Mewtaph is still leaning scum to me. Reading their posts in iso, I see clearly that they're good at not committing to much. 298 is a good example: this is their readlist, which they haven't updated, and it's all based on other people's opinions. He was also a little OMGUS to my pressure vote, which I didn't like, but I think town can do that too. I do have to say they have been consistent in suspecting the SSK/Alianna slot, it doesn't feel like they jumped on the wagon out of nowhere.

[Merlyn]

That got me curious too so I had a look. It appears that their playstyle in this game is something they've gone back to after a few other games. I don't see it so much in the towngame after, and their next couple of games were replace-ins so that's a little different. This game that just finished is their only completed scumgame. I'd say it's different, but that game was also quite inactive, so the gamestate may have had an impact. You can judge it for yourself though. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

In just skimming I can see he playing quite differently as scum, indeed. Maybe you've made a good catch here, I have to think about it more.

I did notice this quote from him in the scumgame, though:

Spoiler: quote

@

Kowahbunga

I meant to ask you a question earlier though I probably forgot. I was wondering if you think it's fair for me to draw analogies between your Andante read in the Mini Normal you just completed and your Cephrir read in this one?

While I can't stop you from comparing games, I personally don't. I think there's a way to put me in the same situation for the posts and reads I made from one game to the next. My reactions in this game will inherently be different than my reactions in a previous game because they're two completely different games. I will see different things from game to game and respond in different ways. I don't expect to ever play two games the same and I go into each game imagining the same of everyone else. I will never use a previous game of someone's to make a decision in this game about them. I can understand why people rely on it more in D1 and it's a common topic. I just think it's poor logic though.

So maybe playstyle is simply a null tell for kowah.

[Merlyn]

Mewtaph is still leaning scum to me. Reading their posts in iso, I see clearly that they're good at not committing to much. 298 is a good example: this is their readlist, which they haven't updated, and it's all based on other people's opinions. He was also a little OMGUS to my pressure vote, which I didn't like, but I think town can do that too. I do have to say they have been consistent in suspecting the SSK/Alianna slot, it doesn't feel like they jumped on the wagon out of nowhere.

I don't have a read there. I'd be down to wagon the slot if you want to do that though.

You know what, I'm in. I'd prefer a Mewtaph lim to yours and the clock is ticking down.

UNVOTE: Kowahbunga
VOTE: Mewtaph

[Merlyn]

This is what's going through my mind this AM:
1) were both scum on the Alianna wagon?
2) Why Bewolkt?

My thoughts so far:
Voted for Alianna:
Umlaut- to me umlaut is confirmed town now bc there's been no counter claim.
Jason- My opinion has not changed and I tr Jason. His reasoning for the Alianna vote made a lot of sense, I don't see anything scummy in it.
Mewtaph- I've have a null leaning scum read on Mewtaph, and would have preferred a Mewtaph lim over Alianna. But- I don't see anything scummy about this vote, they were scum reading the SSK slot for a long time. I also appreciate the posts they've made so far in D2 in 569 and 570, they seem like solid scum hunting questions. I'm more on the fence here than I thought I'd be.
Kowabungah- this is one of the three slots I can see scum in, and I've written about why a lot already. Kowah is my strongest scumread so far.
T3- this is the other slot I could really read scum on in this wagon. There's a lack of any substantial contribution from T3 the whole game, and popping in to vote while saying they thought Alianna was probably town seems like a nice way to keep avoiding the spotlight.

Didn't vote for Alianna-
Me
SeeEmpty- I've been reading SE as town, but his actions during the end of D1 have pinged me a bit. He announced an intent to hammer then disappeared. Post 554 really made me raise my eyebrows- He comes in after the absence and says he's travelling, but he wasn't listed by the mod as VLA. He says he will hammer Alianna if T3 doesnt, but its a half and hour late, T3 has already hammered. And he says he townreads Alianna- what changed between being willing to hammer and then?

After work today I plan to do a reread of SSK/Alianna and bewolkt. In the meantime, I have some questions:

Kowah- you said you needed flips before you could stop sheeping Umlaut. So, what do you have?
T3- could I get who you are leaning for for scum and townreads and why?
SeeEmpty- what changed in your opinion of Alianna?

[Merlyn]

I think Alianna has a solid read on Kowahbunga in 498. If anyone disagrees with this read, I would like to hear why.

I would like to hear Kowah's answer to the question I just posed before I comment on this.

[Merlyn]

The conversation went:

Jason: We should mass claim.
Umlaut: No. I got blocked. We are A2.
Jason: You can't tell the difference between you got blocked or the target doesn't do anything.
Umlaut: Yes I can. (confirm by mod).
Jason: Okay no point to mass claim.

This is a mischaracterization of that convo. It actually goes:

Jason: We should mass claim, bc there are too many potentially power roles for scum to hide behind
Umlaut: No. I got blocked. We are A2, so there's only jailkeeper and they should stay hidden.
Jason: You can't tell the difference between you got blocked or the target doesn't do anything, so we don't know for sure it's a jailkeeper.
Umlaut: Yes I can. (confirm by mod).
Jason: Okay no point to mass claim.

Will also point out this, SeeEmpty's read on Alianna can't be trusted at all, because they refused to post before hammer, so of course they are going to make up some reason that Alianna is town, and as scum they would know that.

What do you mean by SeeEmpty ‘refused’ to post before deadline? Did he not say that he would be away?

Unless i'm crazy, this excuse came after the hammer.

He did not say they'd be away, the first he'd said of it was 554, half an hour after the hammer.

VOTE: Jason
I have nothing to say about the setup.

Well, good, but how about ANYTHING else? Why is Jason your vote? What are your scum and townreads?

[Merlyn]

Which i might point out, that might literally be an actual scum slip since Scum have day talk.

Can you clarify this one for me? I'm not sure I understand which post you're talking about.

[Merlyn]

I'm going to point a couple of things out here.

I would also point out that Jason tipped his hand even more in post 561 right here:

we can't massclaim on day 3 as that enables the scum to hide in the PR's and gives them too much leeway

He made PR's plural. But then in post 581 gives two options for what he wants us to believe are the games we could be in. When he tells us:

The change of mind is for the simple fact that we can assume we are in either A2 or C2 now

C2 shouldn't be possible in his opinion if he's willing to state there are PR's to hide in because C2 only has 1 PR.

My vote stays.

He stated there were PR's to hide in the first massclaim post. The 'change of mind' he's referring to is changing his mind about massclaiming because he thought there were PR's to hide in. So, you're either misreading what he's saying, or you're deliberately mischaracterizing it. Guess which one I think you're doing.

I'm fine with questioning and pressuring others today as much as we can. I don't think Jason is town though. I am town reading SeeEmpty and Umlaut.

A question for you: Umlaut is currently voting for SeeEmpty. In D1, you made a big deal about how much you trusted Umlaut because he wouldn't willingly lead you astray. So, what's happened today to change that?

[Merlyn]

The best part is what confuses me is what this wagon is aimed to achieve, Merlyn and Mewtaph town read me, i doubt they are going to be convinced by this "case" what exactly are you guys trying to achieve?

I will echo Mewtaph here and say that I do not plan on voting for Jason today unless something momentus happens.

[Merlyn]

Honestly my thinking is that it's some combination of {SeeEmpty, Kowah, T3} as the scum team.

Funny, that's my thinking too.

[Merlyn]

Well, Kowah has been on my scum list since way back in 338. I know very few people if any agree with me, but this strategy of glomming onto others instead of expressing opinions (first umlaut, now SeeEmpty) seems like a perfect scum strategy to me.
T3 was null for me in the same post (338), but almost everything he's posted has been a big nothingburger since then (353, 367, 372, 419, 447, 458, 483 kind of, 593, 594 and 602 have no content and that is most of their posts). He's traded places for me on my list with Mewtaph.
In D1, I saw SeeEmpty's pursuit of Jason as honest scum hunting, even if I don't agree with him, the questions he raised seem well-thought out and reasonable. But everything since going missing after declaring intent to hammer of Alianna has been a totally different tone. This current argument- on whether Jason was somehow caught knowing about what poweroles? It's nonsensical.

[Merlyn]

I should probably just post an updated read on everyone. That will have to wait until tomorrow for me though.

[Merlyn]

What I don't understand is that people that "town read" others merely based on the point of "yeah scum wouldn't do that" or "nah if that's scum that's too obvious". Why is that a town read? Where is the trust coming from? Isn't finding out the intention of someone's action the way we identify potential scum?

I've stated all the points why I think I've found scum, but all I see is Umlaut, Mewtaph and Merlyn

strongly

town-reading Jason based on nothing but guts.
Umlaut: Scum wouldn't slip so hard, so Jason is town.
Mewtaph: Scum wouldn't want to get into a huge fight in D1, so Jason is town.
Merlyn: My guts say Jason is town because there's nothing scummy.

There's some serious level of buddying happening here. Something is not right within this group. I think there is a high chance that the other scum is within this group.

So, basically the scum is someone who isn't voting the same way as you?

(Also, I've said more than 'just guts', in 124 and 339.)

[Merlyn]

In D1, I saw SeeEmpty's pursuit of Jason as honest scum hunting, even if I don't agree with him, the questions he raised seem well-thought out and reasonable. But everything since going missing after declaring intent to hammer of Alianna has been a totally different tone. This current argument- on whether Jason was somehow caught knowing about what poweroles? It's nonsensical.

I don't think you understand my point correctly. What I have been saying it that Jason somehow seems to know that the tracker is not able to get any useful result, and he thought that tracker can't tell if he's being blocked or not following someone. I didn't say anything about Jason caught knowing about power roles, whatever that means.

Okay, I might not be understanding your point. You're saying Jason (as scum) knew the roles beforehand, right? And you're saying he slipped in revealing this info? That's the part I don't get. Can you point to the post you're referring to?

[Merlyn]

Jason- I believe Jason is town bc he has looked at everyone in this game multiple times and questioned and pushed them. 21, 54, 81, 106, 145, 170, 214, 358, 378, 386, 614, 636 are all good examples. I think this behavior is the best example of scumhunting I’ve found- the questioning, driving actual content, and not taking anything at face value, including a pr claim.
Umlaut- Has an uncontested pr claim. Also came in pretty strong with the analysis 430, 432, 453 right out of the gate, plus 486. I read town.
Mewtaph- I feel like Mewtaph has really stepped up in D2. My biggest reason for leaning scum before was that I felt like Mewtaph fence sitting a lot, but I don’t see that now. 569 is a really good point, 570 is a confident read on kowah plus a call to action for us to respond (and I actually want to address this in a separate post but I have been waiting for Kowah to answer some questions), questioning in 617. I’m leaning town.
SeeEmpty- Post 575 is where SeeEmpty shares this theory that he has caught Jason in a scumslip. I am just not seeing it, and I know that SE says I’m misunderstanding his posts, so I’m still waiting for an answer to clarify. In the meantime though, every single post SeeEmpty has made since (so basically all D2 so far) has been about this. This constant pushing of something that looks like nothing to me looks scummy.
T3- this is what I wrote in 615, and it hasn’t gotten any better in a day. I have WIFOMed about T3 in my head a bunch, actually. Maybe this is just a townie feeling like they don’t know what to do, like post 640suggests. But- when I go to look at your posts in other games and places, I see that you’re really experienced. I found your (I think most recent) completed townie game here viewtopic.php?p=13670426&f=2&t=90432&us ... #p13670426, and while it’s clear you always make short and sweet posts like you do there, you offer a lot more reasoning and question things more. I’m leaning scum.
Kowahbunga- I am trying not to tunnel here but I can’t shake this feeling you are playing us. All of D1 you were basically of no use, and you put up an argument that you always hate D1 and why, and a lot of people gave you a pass because of this. So- here are in D2. Where is the change of play? You’re still sheeping. I asked you this in 572 and never got an answer, so I’m asking again- you said you needed flips before you could scum hunt effectively, so what have you learned from them?

[Merlyn]

I would pick SeeEmpty or T3 over Kowah, that's the easy part. I would guess SeeEmpty. SeeEmpty was really productive and did a lot of scum hunting on D1, and I read him as town pretty much the whole day. I can see a scenario where's he's just tunnelling on you. I'm very interested in what his actions are for the rest of the day.

[Merlyn]

I'm now convinced you're scum. If you can't see a difference in D1 me and D2 me already, then you're doing it on purpose.

Okay, prove me wrong, please point to the posts that show the difference.

[Merlyn]

What I said was Jason seems to knows the track result (or none thereof). It is due to this fact that I think he's scum, and if so he will most likely already have the knowledge of the setup.

I don't see where Jason seems to know the track result. Again, can you point to the post specifically?

[Merlyn]

Merlyn avoided a direct question in post 106 (or maybe it is a rhetorical one, but still), and nothing afterwards. So is that "unvote and vote someone else so we can get content" to you?

I did what now? Is this the 'question' you're referring to?

@Merlyn: why did you bother posting a read list like this with this non-committal nothingness, that only seems to commit to everyone could be Mafia?

You said, 'maybe it's rhetorical, but still'...still what? This feels like like you're kind grasping at straws to me.

(this is off topic maybe but I noticed a couples of folks calling bewolkt a he, she's a she).

[Merlyn]

If that is the argument- I don't understand it.

I'm going to VOTE: Kowahbunga. My limpool today is Kowah, SeeEmpty, and T3.

[Merlyn]

Yeah, I'm good with that.

UNVOTE: Kowah

Intent to Hammer

Is there anything anyone wants to ask or say before I do?

[Merlyn]

Yup, will be waiting.

[Merlyn]

Well, I don't counter either.

VOTE: Mewtaph

pivot?

T3, what on earth. Jason just posted that he thinks Mewtaph is the PR, and you come and place a vote there? Also- this is very late for a counter wagon, right? And- I mean, that's not much of a wagon. WHY Mewtaph??

[Merlyn]

tbh i just want something we can compromise on

I don't understand. But there were two wagons each at E-1- I declared intent to hammer. Why would a compromise be Mewtaph who has no votes?

[Merlyn]

Actually

VOTE: Kowah

I don't really see scum motivation in T3 moving their vote like this and destabilizing things right when they're about to get their preferred wagon. Would still prefer this over Mewtaph but will switch for the sake of getting an elim through.

What do you mean? T3's preferred wagon was Jason, not SeeEmpty.

[Merlyn]

I will VOTE: Kowahbunga in the absence of a counterclaim to SeeEmpty's claim. I will definitely be on again before deadline and am willing to switch if things change.

[Merlyn]

Right, SeeEmpty claimed meaning the obvious thing to happen would be for someone to hammer Jason, T3's preferred wagon. I think moving off of it at that moment is...

...actually that's weird for either alignment, hmm

Oh, interesting, I hadn't thought about it like that. Okay, this did just make me think of a reason T3 might have done that but I don't want to give him an excuse without him explaining himself first.

[Merlyn]

Here, but waiting for umlaut before I share my thoughts.

[Merlyn]

So, I'm thinking that if umlaut had fakeclaimed, he was would have to hope the other role was jailkeeper or friendly neighbor right? Otherwise he gets outed immediately. So the odds are really small that he chose this and then we actually had a jailkeeper. I agree it's a possibility, and I do think we should examine it bc otherwise we're basically giving umlaut a free pass to the end of the game. But the chances seem much smaller to me than kowah or t3 being the scum instead.

[Merlyn]

T3/Kowah can't risk a block on Umlaut, Merlyn/JasonWazza can.

Thing is we really have to consider who is realistically able to risk a block on Umlaut while shooting Mew.

Why?

[Merlyn]

Merlyn, the Jailkeeper is a roleblock and a protect.

If whoever Mew targeted was the one doing the kill, we would have had no kill last night, and again Umlaut is claiming that a Mafia Roleblocker blocked them.

Example;
Mew Jailkeeps the Mafia Roleblocker
Assuming the Mafia Roleblocker doesn't counter the block (Mafia Roleblocker is prioritized) which is what Umlaut is telling us, then there is no kill overnight.

T3/Kowah can't risk the above because they are likely targets for the Jailkeeper.
We can, because we aren't going to be the target, and would be able to kill Mew and Roleblock Umlaut.

What you're saying is right, I do get that, but what I was asking is why T3 can't risk it? Mew as good as called he was going to jail Kowah last night.

And hell, would Scum T3 jump off the counter wagon to not enable the counter wagon to be hammered?

I honestly think T3 and Kowah are both town with all these developments for today.

But there was pretty much no chance for the counter wagon to reach a lim at the point. I think it was a last minute move intended to shake up the voting, maybe even get a last minute wagon on Mew.

[Merlyn]

re Kowah 761:

I do think it would be incredibly bold of scum to offer to be a lim, especially this late in the game.

[Merlyn]

Here's my thinking.

T3 logical actions as scum in this scenario.
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Umlaut.
Block Umlaut, Shoot no one. (again this relies on the Mod question, but if he gives a went nowhere if blocked, this seems like an option)
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Mewtaph.

Kowah logical actions as scum in this scenario.
Block Mewtaph, Shoot Umlaut/Mewtaph. (kowah has less options as he was the more likely to be Mewtaphs jail target.)

Umlaut logical actions as scum.
Shoot Mewtaph
Shoot no one.

Merlyn logical actions as scum.
Block Umlaut, Shoot Mewtaph
No action

JasonWazza logical actions as scum.
Block Umlaut, Shoot Mewtaph.
No action

I truly don't mean to be dense here, but I've read this post like 6 times now and I still don't understand why you think it's illogical that T3 would block umlaut and shoot mewtaph.

[Merlyn]

Again i'd say they botched it regardless because i think no action and hope that the other got Jailkept, into an argument with the tracker about the tracker being real was the better way to go, and frankly that's kinda what i'm accepting at this point since i can't see it being you or Merlyn, is that the Scum member played suboptimally and kinda screwed themselves.

This makes sense to me, because I don't think it was optimal play for SeeEmpty to do what he did yesterday- basically a hypertunnel on you and never left. Even if he thought you were jailkeeper, once it was clear that the vote wasn't going to go that way it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that he never tried to pivot.

[Merlyn]

ISOing SeeEmpty, one thing I do find interesting is that SeeEmpty never actually directly interacts with Merlyn except to ask Merlyn some basic questions or when Merlyn goes and interacts with him. He does interact with everyone else except bekwolt, whom he doesn't mention at all.

it seems to me like kowah might be setting up for endgame with the umlaut vote?

So are you saying you think scum is either Kowah or me?

Also- I'd like to get an answer to my question to you yesterday- why did you suddenly unvote Jason and vote Mewtaph? You said it was to 'compromise' for a lim, but no one was voting Mew- and there was already another wagon on SeeEmpty. Why didn't you compromise by voting there?

[Merlyn]

Umlaut- to me umlaut is confirmed town now bc there's been no counter claim.

Merlyn, can I ask you why you didn't consider the possibility at this point that I'm scum who made a lucky fakeclaim?

Yeah, when delta claimed he was only at e-2 , and it was only halfway through D1. I thought that was an incredibly risky move if fake.

[Merlyn]

I'm sorry what?

You had doubts literally from SeeEmpty claiming and me saying i think Mewtaph is JailKeeper?

so from this post to this post

You will tell us now exactly which post made you suddenly have doubts.

Note that if it's me calling Mewtaph the person who i thought was Jailkeeper, you must explain how that makes you doubt your scum read on me, and how exactly that means you are now willing to lim someone who i think is Jailkeeper.

SeeEmpty claimed jailkeeper, I decided to reread the past several pages, which led me to reconsider my read on you. There wasn't any particular post, but the main one was 636 and your interactions with Kowah. Yes, I am willing to lim someone who you think is Jailkeeper, just because I townread you doesn't mean that I have to follow all your reads.

SeeEmpty claimed, so you did a reread of recent events...and it made you reconsider Jason. Okay, so when you went to reread because of SeeEmpty's claim, I don't understand why you wouldn't decide a) he's lying, and vote for him or b) telling the truth, and stay on the wagon he was championing. And you say the post that made you believe Jason was town when you'd scumread him all day was 636?

Also because i have forgotten.

@Kowah/SeeEmpty, If i flip town, who would you think the scum team is, If i were to flip Scum, who would be my partner
@Mewtaph, Who are your biggest scum reads at this point?

Let's make people actually commit to proper reads shall we.

Like, what in here did Jason do that he hadn't been doing all along?

I will VOTE: T3. Everyone has risks to believe them, so I have to pick what I think is the most likely risk. For Kowah to be scum, Mew would have had to not jailkeep him. For Umlaut to be scum, his slot had to risk a pretty big false claim. For Jason to be scum, SeeEmpty would have had to have been willing to lim his partner for no reason almost all game. I believe that T3 has been deliberately staying noncommittal and out of the limelight as scum more than I believe any of the other 3 things.

[Merlyn]

I think so, yes.

[Merlyn]

I have been back and forth like crazy on this. I'm stuck on the same thing I was stuck on yesterday- one of you had to take a big risk as scum, and I don't know which is less likely. I'm now looking at this from a different angle: who benefited most from killing Jason? I think that has to be Umlaut: Jason and Kowah were both ready to lim Umlaut yesterday until I messed it up. What's more, an alive Jason would be more willing to lim umlaut now than if it was me or Kowah in the other spot. And Kowah and I have been butting heads all game- basically, this is an ideal final two for Umlaut. I hope I'm not about to blow the whole game, but I'm voting Umlaut.

VOTE: Umlaut

[Merlyn]

So now Umlaut can come in and leave this decision to me to figure out. The unfortunate part is now I have reasons to believe both of you are scum. So now I have to decide who is more scum.

Wish we had limmed Umlaut when I said to. I think it ends up easier for whoever ended up in my position. But oh well.

Well me too now lol. But we still have a real chance to win this. I really don't know if there's anything I can say to prove my innocence. Are there any questions I can answer?

[Merlyn]

Okay, sounds good.

[Merlyn]

Don't want to get hit for not posting, just not sure what to say right now? I hope the game didn't die.

[Merlyn]

Not all that solid, because otherwise I would have listened to Jason when he kept saying every day not to assume umlaut is confirmed in his role. And that's strange, because I think Jason made it pretty clear he thought I was town more than he thought you were. If you had kept him around, I'm pretty sure town would have already won this game.

I actually think you've played an amazing game, and afterwards I really want to hear about what it was like replacing into that situation. But for now as you said it's all up to Kowah!

[Merlyn]

Well case closed then, right, you caught me!

[Merlyn]

Come on Kowah, I know that we've been at odds for a lot of this game, but we haven't lost yet. You can't let this block you have where umlaut was gonna be scum day 3 but not day 4 if we didn't lim him in time get in the way here.

[Merlyn]

Congrats town!! Great job, Kowah, seeing through my lies!

I had SO MUCH FUN in this game. I really fumbled my way through it, and made a ton of mistakes, but I also learned a lot. I really really appreciate Jason and Umlaut in particular who have taught me so much in this game, and SeeEmpty for being a wonderful scumbuddy.

Kowah, I’m so sorry I kept dogging you all game! I actually find your game theories fascinating and I’d love to play a D1 like you envision. Creating a fake nemesis was just too good a chance to pass up. Karma certainly got me back when I missed that you were bulletproof after the Mew kill lol!

Y’all are amazing, hope I get a chance to play with you again!

[Merlyn]

also, fferylit, thanks for great modding. I was also tickled by the idea that us scum were labs hiding amongst the terriers. It was so difficult for me not to comment on every cute dog pic posted.

[Merlyn]

You're so nice to say that, I tried my best. I know I made a bunch of mistakes, especially with kills and also with not acknowledging the possibility of another setup, like you noticed.

[Merlyn]

Yeah you played it well, i just have no clue why you didn't just cave at some point in D2 and have me limmed, probably would have made you and SeeEmpty's job way easier and lead to a pretty easy win.

Like you didn't have to have a great reason to lim me, because at that point all it takes is 1 mislim to win, and one bad townie vote to win.

I should have! I was too wrapped up in the idea that SeeEmpty and I needed to stay on opposite sides after we kind of accidently ignored each other all D1. We also had a hard time coordinating during that period- we live on opposite sides of the planet and it could be hard for each of us to plan with each other in real time.

[Merlyn]

And here is what i will say, given you chose not to lim me, best strategy was probably to go with a no shoot no block N2.

You get whoever Mewtaph JK'd Limmed (forcing a mislim with no confirmations), and then get to kill off Mewtaph the next night anyway (and blocking Umlaut is probably fine at this point, it just didn't really work when we didn't know who Mewtaph was on).

This honestly didn't even hit me until well into D3

[Merlyn]

Mewtaph jailkeeps T3 - succeeds

I was fucking right to be paranoid.

Well knock me down with a feather! I thought it was guaranteed Mew jailkept kowah.

[Merlyn]

PTs have been added.

I just want to say that this has been one of my favorite newbie games to moderate. I really enjoyed watching everyone play and thought you all did well with your roles and in your alignments!

Merlyn I thought this was a bravura performance for a first forum mafia game!

I hope you all will stick around and sign up for more games. If you have trouble figuring out what sort of game you'd like to play next, please feel free to PM me to discuss the different kinds of games we play at mafiascum.net!

My pup and I thank you for not rebelling against all the way-too-cute doggy pix in this game's flavor!

I'm still not sure if the possible (?) Labrador retriever in his family tree explains his personality. I think his veterinarian nailed it: he's Terrieresque!

Not possible to have too many cute doggy pics

Yay, I'm so glad you had fun too! And that for saying that, especially since you got to see all my behind the scenes fumbles lol!

I had NO IDEA that you could spectator a game. Or that anyone was watching this one! I've read pretty much every current newbie game on the site in the last month, I should have been PM'ing the mods!

[Merlyn]

I was savoring the eventual lab ancestry reveal![/quote]

I was like, THE STORY COMES FULL CIRCLE!

It does explain some of my Pip's non-terrier physical features, but inside his doggy brain he's all terrier.

Also, my first dog was a black lab mix, and she was definitely on my mind as I researched the flavor for this game. She was a sweet, sweet dog who aimed to please in every way. The pupster is definitely not like that!

That's hilarious. I have a very bossy authoritarian terrier corgi mix myself

[Merlyn]

This was a great game, and Merlyn and SeeEmpty were both great adversaries!

Day 3 when I was choosing between Merlyn and T3 I recall finding it off that Merlyn got so indignant at T3 for switching to her own preferred wagon, but I literally forgot about that when I was reviewing the evidence because I found the other points so convincing.

lololol whoops, I did indeed do that!

I meant it when I said you were a great player, I just happened to know for sure you were town Pretty much the first page you subbed in, I was like, 'I'm in danger!'

[Merlyn]

I need to trust my gut more for fucks sake.

I think you felt bad about being annoyed with me early in the game (and you didn't need to be, I didn't take it personally) and overcompensated. However I had no doubt that if I managed to get to endgame you couldn't be there, you're a very savvy player

[Merlyn]

This interaction is hilarious to me looking back on it. "Hey, scum, want to help me wagon the jailkeeper?"

Alianna, town should have kept you! I see from the spectator/dead thread you caught on to me before the end.