Open 899 - The Pizza Kids Coalition [Game Over]

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Post Post #790 (isolation #0) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:28 am

Post by fireisredsir »

hello friends!!
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Post Post #791 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:31 am

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i was loosely reading along earlier in the game and i strongly thought dragon was scum but we'll see if that lasts. ill have time to catch up later
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Post Post #793 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:42 am

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In post 787, Klick wrote: If anyone believes in Dragon!scum and wants anyone to take Dragon!scum seriously they're going to need to present their reasoning pretty firmly to badge the current thread opinion
lmao

ok well ill read first, i could be wrong

part of it was the way he was playing around you felt really designed to me
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Post Post #794 (isolation #3) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:50 am

Post by fireisredsir »

ok i really should not be here right now, but new game exciting couldn't resist rereading a bit

appearance feels pretty town from the first few pages. t3 maybe also. dragon and implo feel the most like they're trying to get townread
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Post Post #795 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 7:04 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 786, Klick wrote: Tbh a lot of people came in and started talking like they knew everything and it made me want to do something with my time other than look at the thread
i will try my best to not do this but apologies if i am overconfident it comes with the high of replacing in and then soon i will probably doubt everything
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Post Post #804 (isolation #5) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:22 am

Post by fireisredsir »

mmm is a pretty good post if dragon is scum
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Post Post #806 (isolation #6) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:42 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 805, gob wrote: DE crumblin
?
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Post Post #807 (isolation #7) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:57 am

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ok i keep running into more of these posts, and i think from spec the biggest thing that rang alarm bells for me about dragon was how he kept repeatedly saying "wow i hope klick isn't pocketing me!!" in a way that felt extremely forced bc nothing that klick was doing looked like it could resemble pocketing dragon and if anything it looked way more like the opposite

and that felt like the kind of thing that i like to do as scum a lot except it was done in a much more sloppy way imo. i like to think at least that there's some finesse to the play

having read more closely now (on page 12) ill have a bit more to say about more general stuff once i have some time to type words
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Post Post #808 (isolation #8) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:09 am

Post by fireisredsir »

is super towny imo
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Post Post #812 (isolation #9) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 12:34 pm

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In post 384, implosion wrote: There's a world where is dragon + one of DV/Klick as scum and Dragon sees an excuse to try to replace the double-scum coalition that's been building with a single-scum coalition. That would also mirror my play in the scum coalition game I mentioned. In that sense that when the game was going well, I went a bit out of my way to try to get the other scum off of the coalition (when that plan failed, I had to bus them on the first lim).
hm. this was like exactly the thought i had when i saw that post. interesting

it felt very much like a pivot to establish a better gamestate

but i kind of dismissed it because i don't really read dv or klick as scum. both feel towny to me. which made me start to wonder if my read on dragon was wrong, because i didn't really see a scum motivation behind him making that post, despite it feeling like it was part of a plan

but now part of me wonders if it was intended to be read that way by a dragon/implo team. in that world, they would probably be worried about how both of them seemed too okay with the coalition (dragon in, implo out) going through. the thing with coalition setup is that the scum in the coalition almost never endgames. and i know implo as scum likes to plan ahead paths to victory, and i think dragon does too. so knowing that dragon would likely eventually flip, planting this here makes it look like dragon is unhappy with the gamestate and wants to shake things up -- which points away from implosion and towards DV or klick

im not sure if that's like too elaborate of a plan, idk, my predictions of that sort of thing aren't always accurate. but it does feel like dragon has this energy throughout the game where he feels like he wants to be doing more, taking more control, forcing the gamestate into places he wants it to go. and he's presenting that as a town mindset, but if he is scum, then i think that kind of energy could manifest in making plays like this. i recognize it because i think i have that kind of energy as scum a lot, where i want to keep doing more and keep setting things up and improving the position
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Post Post #813 (isolation #10) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 12:42 pm

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the thread trajectory of DV ending up in the fun car is really intriguing to me
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Post Post #814 (isolation #11) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 12:51 pm

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i skimmed over the remaining paragraphs in while commenting on the first one and only read them fully now but they are a major HMm

aligns pretty much exactly with what i think implo would be agendaposting in that dragon/implo world
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Post Post #815 (isolation #12) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:01 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

page 16/17 is making me a little more conflicted than i was before about appearance

the specific variety of self-consciousness feels more like a scum thing

the thought process in the read of the gamestate still feels like town though
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Post Post #816 (isolation #13) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:05 pm

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tracks to me with what my read of klick's side of the klick/dragon interaction was, which is mostly klick being somewhat dismissive/uninterested in dragon's attempts to engage, and kind of keeping him at arm's length for the sake of observation

which i think is part of what makes it weird that dragon is saying that klick was trying to pocket him
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Post Post #817 (isolation #14) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:19 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

oh yeah was a major post that i scumread from spec. that one's really hard for me to see as genuine
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Post Post #818 (isolation #15) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:23 pm

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In post 488, Appearance wrote:  i started to feel that t3 had lost the aura that initially drew me in
huh, did a double take here, ive never heard appearance talk like this. i don't know if it's AI but it's interesting
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Post Post #819 (isolation #16) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:50 pm

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dragon continuing to effort near the end of coalition forming is pretty towny

mmmm idk im unsure now
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Post Post #820 (isolation #17) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 1:59 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

implosion also feels unagendad at end of phase and start of elim phase posting is good so uhh
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Post Post #822 (isolation #18) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:42 pm

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idk i was excited when i thought i had a solve and then i started to lose grasp on the confidence i had on my reads and then when i did i lost motivation and stopped reading around the time coalition failed

ill pick back up later
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Post Post #823 (isolation #19) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:43 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 805, gob wrote: DE crumblin
what did you mean by this
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Post Post #827 (isolation #20) » Mon Jan 15, 2024 5:44 pm

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In post 825, gob wrote: Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition.
do you think that they did push that coalition?
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Post Post #853 (isolation #21) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:24 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 838, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 804, fireisredsir wrote: mmm is a pretty good post if dragon is scum
What does this even mean
it means that it felt well-placed as far as gaining towncred, and if you're scum then it was well-timed and well-written. i have seen you play scum (pretty well imo) but it still made me stop and consider whether it was something i should be considering out of your range

i don't think id say it's a necessarily towny post (i would say the towniest posting you have is at the end of coalition phase) but it's certainly a post that is good at looking towny. i think you'd probably agree even if you are town that there is an element of performing for the sake of getting townread I. your posts, and whenever someone has that playstyle i find it hard to parse because i just see the performance and can't tell if its town performance or scum performance
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Post Post #854 (isolation #22) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:28 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 841, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 807, fireisredsir wrote: ok i keep running into more of these posts, and i think from spec the biggest thing that rang alarm bells for me about dragon was how he kept repeatedly saying "wow i hope klick isn't pocketing me!!" in a way that felt extremely forced bc nothing that klick was doing looked like it could resemble pocketing dragon and if anything it looked way more like the opposite

and that felt like the kind of thing that i like to do as scum a lot except it was done in a much more sloppy way imo. i like to think at least that there's some finesse to the play

having read more closely now (on page 12) ill have a bit more to say about more general stuff once i have some time to type words
I think you are missing the context about the pocketing here:
Klick and I have a recently completed game where we found each other as town on like page 3, and were heavily townblocking. So I came into this game thinking "wow it'd be cool if Klick is town this game as well and we can find each other on page 2 and win". I basically said as much in my literal first post this game.

Now Klick obviously knows this, and his approach to the game in general and to my slot in particular has been similar to his approach in the last game, but there are some differences. So one could interpret it as him being town and therefore having a similar approach, with the differences being due to this being a different game. OR, one could interpret it as Klick being scum, seeing how eager I am to find him as town, and deliberately trying to imitate his play from that game in order to pocket me, but not quite succeeding due to being scum. Add to that the fact that Klick has basically been having the same reads as I and ended up sheeping me not once but twice (I wanted dragon/dv/klick/app/elements from page 6, which ended up being klick's favored coalition, and he also sheeped me onto the one that did pass), and I think it becomes pretty clear why thinking that Klick might be pocketing me is not an unreasonable thought to have.

That I currently choose to think he is town, is another matter entirely.
im relatively aware of the context, i was following along for at least part of that game, but it looks to me like you started the game deciding that "klick pocketing you" was a narrative that you were going to run with regardless of what actually happens

what you seem to be describing is just "klick is playing how he usually plays. he also played that way in the other game". i don't know why you're assigning "deliberately" to it. thats the part that feels forced to me. there's no reason that i see to believe that klick is doing this (or anything) specifically because of you. similar for the reads. when i read, it looked to me mostly like klick was working a lot in his own brain and coming to conclusions independently. even if he came to the same answers, it didn't read like a sheep to me.

what specific posts would you describe as making you think that klick may be pocketing you?
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Post Post #855 (isolation #23) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:30 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 843, DragonEater70 wrote: Like I feel fireisredsir has decided to scumread me before reading my posts and is now looking for reasons to scunread me.
well thats kinda what happened. i did scumread you prior to reading the game more closely, and on reading closely im better able to support and rationalize where that scumread came from. that doesn't make it less valid, there still were specific origin points for the scumread (and i found several of them and pointed them out as i went, as well as some new ones)

i hear this like basically every time i catch up on a thread. it's just how read forming works for me
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Post Post #856 (isolation #24) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:31 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 849, gob wrote:
In post 827, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 825, gob wrote: Looking at these pools, it seems Kyouko and Ydrasse had the most incentive to push that coalition.
do you think that they did push that coalition?
Yes because mafia HAS to. I havent actually read that part of the game though.
do you see any issues with your logic here
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Post Post #858 (isolation #25) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:56 am

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ok i tried to peer review and summarize your chain of logic so i could point out flaws and i got really lost because im not even sure how you came to the conclusions you did

i will make a couple of points though

1) ydra and kyo didn't really do a lot of active pushing of the coalition. a lot of the last minute decisions of who was in and out seemed like it came down mostly to DE and Klick

2) just because appearance, klick, and DE were in every pool doesn't mean we should be necessarily eliminating outside of those. in the previous coalition game, there was a similar scenario with 3 consensus townreads and a lot of debate around the remaining 2. the scum in the coalition was one of the consensus 3 townreads
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Post Post #859 (isolation #26) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:56 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i would recommend reading that part of the game because its probably the most important part
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Post Post #861 (isolation #27) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:00 am

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im actually not sure if ive seen a coalition game where coalition failed and scum *wasn't* in the consensus pool of townreads. in addition to the most recent one, the two other coalition games i remember with a failed coalition had that scenario as well

its definitely possible and arguably should be more likely but it is by no means a guarantee
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Post Post #862 (isolation #28) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:01 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 860, implosion wrote: I do think this would be a pretty needless tact for gob-scum to take
can you elaborate on this
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Post Post #864 (isolation #29) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:11 am

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you found me as town eventually in frenemies but it took a while, and then i think you thought i was scum in scarfolk to the end. both times you deliberated over the read pretty extensively. chromavalon we already decided doesn't count

i don't think we've played any games where i was scum but im not sure
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Post Post #865 (isolation #30) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:11 am

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i guess i should stop being lazy and read the last 10 pages
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Post Post #867 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:51 am

Post by fireisredsir »

that is true and is often a challenge i run into when replacing into games. i should probably just not read games prior to replacing into them but its hard to resist

without doing further research besides what ive already read, my understanding is that dragon is a relatively new (or at least growing) player who is excited to improve and push himself to be better. i think it's dangerous to get too caught up in scumrange with that type of player. i exploited that tendency myself, and ive gotten burned by it before (if you remember gimli from hollow knight, i mostly ruled him out due to feeling like he was out of scumrange)

there's been several points this game that i think are arguably "out of range" but even ignoring the concept of range, the posting right before coalition forming feels just like... something he wouldn't do as scum. not that he couldn't, but i just can't see why he would. that's why i find it to be the most towny aspect (also, fwiw, i hadn't read that part prior to replacing)

that said i will still do a more extensive analysis since most of what ive read of dragon's games has just been when spectating for fun and not for the specific purpose of determining tendencies
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Post Post #869 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:15 am

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what makes you most confident on dragon being town? it read to me like you were fairly confident fairly early on in the game
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Post Post #871 (isolation #33) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:21 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 725, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 0, Prism wrote:

among us!
town entrance
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Post Post #872 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:21 am

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i do think that ydra reaction to coalition forming is pretty towny
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Post Post #873 (isolation #35) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:35 am

Post by fireisredsir »

alright im caught up

i think appearance is fairly towny as well
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Post Post #878 (isolation #36) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:56 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 875, DragonEater70 wrote: I am performatove as town a lot
yes, that's what i said
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Post Post #879 (isolation #37) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:57 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 877, DragonEater70 wrote: And yeah I don't see a reason with being townread as town
i assume there's a missing word or something here
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Post Post #880 (isolation #38) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:58 am

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In post 874, DeasVail wrote:
In post 873, fireisredsir wrote: alright im caught up

i think appearance is fairly towny as well
I truly am not sure of the scumread there by any means, but of everyone on the coalition, I think Appearance has fit the most with what I expect from scumplay. I know that it is common to interpret appearance’s style of play as scummy, but I just don’t think it’s Dragon, and I agree that Ydrasse was townie.
what makes you think appearance over my slot?
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Post Post #883 (isolation #39) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:01 pm

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i was saying that your play is performative as town and as scum, and i tend to find that playstyle hard to parse because the posts that are performance just read as "fake" to my radar and so it's hard for me to judge if it's the town sort of fake or the scum sort of fake
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Post Post #884 (isolation #40) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:02 pm

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what about 855 do you think is scum? you can answer in the morning if you want
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Post Post #890 (isolation #41) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:23 pm

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i don't actually have a read on you, my read on your entrance was a joke because ive townread you for being funny in the past and i have 0 clue how accurate it is

my read on your slot is due to ydra, which i did mention. i think its maybe potentially dangerous to try to read into her emotional state but i think that hers makes a lot of sense to me as a town one. her general approach to the game and particularly the coalition itself felt more like town as well

deas is voting appearance so i don't think he thinks that appearance is town
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Post Post #891 (isolation #42) » Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:31 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

actually im not sure if i've ever townread you for it or if i've just continued the bit from when i did it when we were both scum in invictus

either way, it wasn't serious, i don't think you've done anything AI yet
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Post Post #914 (isolation #43) » Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:01 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 904, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 884, fireisredsir wrote: what about 855 do you think is scum? you can answer in the morning if you want
Basically, you were admitting that you did a scummy thing (deciding you wanted to scumread me before actually reading me properly), but then explained it away as not really scummy.

This is something I do A LOT as scum when I come under fire, and you mentioned you think I have the same energy as scum that you have, so I think you'd definitely do that as scum.

Also it's not morning for me but it's probably morning for you so I technically did explain it in the morning.
no, i wasn't admitting that i did a scummy thing, i was telling you it's not a scummy thing. i explained that i scumread you from spec in like my first few posts. there's no new information in you saying that i scumread you prior to exploring the reasons for the scumread, thats just literally the reality of what happened which i made clear myself at the time. if you think that's scummy you're going to have to explain why
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Post Post #915 (isolation #44) » Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:05 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 908, T3 wrote:
In post 874, DeasVail wrote:
In post 873, fireisredsir wrote: alright im caught up

i think appearance is fairly towny as well
I truly am not sure of the scumread there by any means, but of everyone on the coalition, I think Appearance has fit the most with what I expect from scumplay. I know that it is common to interpret appearance’s style of play as scummy, but I just don’t think it’s Dragon, and I agree that Ydrasse was townie.
I'm not really sure how to read Appareance. I've gone through his ISO and tracked his reads on specific players and everything logically checked out.
In post 909, T3 wrote: Like there were no reads in which I had no idea how he could have got there
this is also more or less what i look for in appearance. i think as scum he has a harder time generating thoughts and so they sometimes seem to come out of nowhere. here it feels more like the thoughts are coming organically as a result of reading the thread, and most of the time there isn't that feeling of being pressured
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Post Post #918 (isolation #45) » Wed Jan 17, 2024 7:25 am

Post by fireisredsir »

it doesn't feel to me like dragon is trying to sort me or is genuinely engaging with the things ive said, it feels like he just saw that im suspicious of him and decided im scum without really closely reading my posts

while part of me would like to call that scummy i think i could also see it coming from town who is frustrated by the gamestate and what seems to be a general shift in the vibe in the last 20 pages compared to the first 20
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Post Post #922 (isolation #46) » Wed Jan 17, 2024 8:20 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 920, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 918, fireisredsir wrote: while part of me would like to call that scummy i think i could also see it coming from town who is frustrated by the gamestate and what seems to be a general shift in the vibe in the last 20 pages compared to the first 20
I really need to stop responding to posts after reading only half of them

Uh, okay? What's your current read on me then?
id say significantly concerned but conflicted

you have points in the game that to me feel scummier to me than any other player but you also have points in the game that feel townier to me than any other player. and i don't really know how to weigh that or which side is more reliable. i guess in a vacuum i would lean towards thinking the moments of townness are more reliable? but i think i need to read meta more carefully to get a better baseline understanding in order to sort that out

and at the same time im worried (based just on... how games tend to go in general) that we're going to default to the lower volume slots and then they'll probably be town and then we'll just be back here again tomorrow without having learned anything

so im also leaning towards wanting to read appearance/ydra/dunn more closely to either see if ive missed something or so i can feel more confident in townreads there. klick ive already looked at pretty closely and he feels very town mindset to me

this is probably not the clear answer that you would like to hear sorry im working on it
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Post Post #932 (isolation #47) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:19 am

Post by fireisredsir »

can someone who has played with gob explain why this is town gob behavior
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Post Post #933 (isolation #48) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 6:21 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i read a couple games and it looks to me like he just makes stuff up and throws it at the wall as either alignment and its hard for me to see a difference
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Post Post #934 (isolation #49) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:04 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 869, fireisredsir wrote: what makes you most confident on dragon being town? it read to me like you were fairly confident fairly early on in the game
@klick did you ignore this on purpose
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Post Post #935 (isolation #50) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:07 am

Post by fireisredsir »

ive been reading dragon meta and i have some thoughts but its somewhat difficult to summon the courage to make a post on it

it would be helpful to me to have someone to talk to about the game here but it feels like people aren't really in the mood for that. im not sure if it's the suspicion that was on my slot or if it's the gamestate itself or what
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Post Post #936 (isolation #51) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:13 am

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i am kind of nervous because the last time i replaced into a pretty heavily suspected slot, i believed that one of the stronger players in the game was scum, cased and pushed them, and then was wrong. and i don't enjoy when that happens. we did win eventually but it was a pretty uphill battle and im not sure if it was worth it, town might have been better off if they just limmed me right away to get people out of their tunnels

oh and also the main person who was like willing to talk and engage with me about things and get me into the game was scum trying to pocket me lol

so idk maybe town are naturally more hesitant due to lack of information and i should take it as a good sign that it doesn't feel like that's happening here
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Post Post #937 (isolation #52) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:23 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 691, implosion wrote: I'm also kind of hoping Klick or like, maybe DV or kyouko (if they're town) will find me as town at some point because they're the only slots that it feels appealing to work with right now and I feel like i need help to make headway right now
hey. same. me too

come talk about ydra/dunn and appearance with me

correct me if im wrong but the vibe i am kind of getting from you is that you are like "okay i feel like i know how to read these people (klick/dragon/kyo). and they seem town. and i don't really know how to read these people (ydra/appearance) confidently. so they're probably scum"

and like i get the appeal of that conceptually but idk it feels a little complacent. maybe you have stronger reasons for those slots being scum and i missed them

i guess i would just like to know more where your head is at in a broader, like, "how we should be approaching this gamestate" sense, which was something that i remember feeling was present from you in scarfolk
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Post Post #938 (isolation #53) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:26 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i guess it was also present at the start of elimination phase, i found those posts again and i remember thinking they were towny. but still
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Post Post #940 (isolation #54) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:00 am

Post by fireisredsir »

you said earlier you think appearance fits most with what you expect from scumplay, can you explain what you mean by that?
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Post Post #943 (isolation #55) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 10:31 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i do think that is pretty busy-work-y and something that i could do really easily as scum so idk how it would be helpful but sure i can
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Post Post #948 (isolation #56) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:12 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

Spoiler: overly long answer to homework assignment from dragon

there's a lot of little posts that ping me a small amount but i tried to mostly leave those out and stick to the things that have majorly influenced my read. i also would add that my read on dragon is like, unusually polarized, in that there are a lot of things that i read as scummy and things i read as towny. i think with most other slots in the game (and also in most other games) there's a lot less that stands out to me as feeling AI. that unusualness here is why i originally made the comment about dragon having some of the scummiest posts and some of the towniest posts

i also would gladly welcome any thoughts from others who read this (except gob who i expect has not even made it this far into the post, let alone further) to let me know if they agree/disagree/see something differently/think i am tunneling/think i am dumb/whatever, thanks


Spoiler: mediumly scummy things


- and are some of the scummier rvs posts imo, because it feels like you are aware that you are overexplaining your thought process here and so you self-consciously post again about your eloquence 5 minutes after. it's hard for me to see a motivation for the first beyond "trying to get townread", which is something some town players do, but what makes it suspect to me is the follow-up. i wouldn't think you'd be worried about explaining away your wordiness as town

- reads as made in very bad faith to me, almost feels too scummy to be scum. healing 3 people in the first 2 pages = working the most to form a coalition is just... really hard to believe that's a real thing you think. if you're town i guess this was probably done to provoke reactions and generate content, but claiming that playstyle makes it really easy to do anything as scum

- i talked about this before and ive gone back and forth on how i feel about it. i have similar issues to how i feel about (which will be below this for organization although i typed it earlier), where it seems like you care more about looking like you want to solve than about actually pushing the game into that state yourself (it's also kind of ignoring the fact that this is an inherently unique townhunting setup, and coalition kinda just always feels that way). i originally put this in the mediumly towny section bc last time i read it i came away from it with that read, but the more i think about it the more i don't like it. it's really overwrought, i don't think town should have that much trouble with a townhunting gamestate in a townhunting setup, and so it feels like you are imitating what you think a townie should be feeling more than expressing something real (see ). it's out of sync with what your actual behavior in the game is, so it's hard for me to see it as a consistent mindset. doubling that up with the fact that we're now in a phase where you can actually push people and eliminate them but you're less engaged again makes it feel like the original concern wasn't stemming from a real place. the frustration does feel fairly real, so if you're scum you're likely channeling some actual feelings of finding it difficult to do the things you want to do in that gamestate.

- isn't actually scummy in isolation aside from some mild self-consciousness, but i wanted to point it out since there's an inconsistency here compared to how you handled my read on you, which you said came from scum because i was doing exactly what you're saying here (even though i wasn't really, a lot of the posts that i did point out were the origin points of my read). i think town can be hypocritical, but it does make it a little harder for me to believe that reason for your read on me was made in good faith

- feels bad faith. we lim in the coalition and you know that so to say that you not pushing implo means you can't have powerwolf vibes is kinda ridiculous


Spoiler: mediumly towny things

- this is one of those "i dont think scum would have had to do this" posts. i explored a possible world where it does make sense to me to come from scum and some more thoughts about it in , but i think on the whole it's a pretty towny post, and this is one where the more i think about it the townier it feels. particularly the like vibe of "ive sat too long on my solve and now im getting paranoid about it being wrong" feels town. prodding DV about it later in also makes it feel like this is really a point that's active in your mind

- is also pretty towny, particularly in combination with 361 because i think it makes a dragon/implosion world feel less likely. the tone feels pure

- is more towny for the context than the content to me. it's hard to see a motivation for you as scum to be towncasing kyo at this specific point in the game, especially since it's a relatively sudden pivot. i think that would mostly just make it difficult for you to rescind the read later when you need to elim that slot (although you did regardless, but still)

- this is a relatively run-of-the-mill but still moderately towny post, engaging with the game, balanced approach, feels like you're actually trying to solve rather than trying to look like you want to solve


Spoiler: significantly scummy things


- this isn't the only post of your early interactions with klick, but it's one that stands out to me. the direct appeal of asking klick to help you push the game a certain way is really questionable to me especially because it doesn't make any sense that you would ask klick to do this given klick's playstyle. if one of you were to be involved in pushing the game that direction, it should definitely be you, and you can do it without talking about it which will diminish its usefulness. it is just a post which cares a lot more about an appeal to klick and about LOOKING like you're trying to solve than actually about solving, because there's like 3 major ways that you would have gone about this differently if you were actually trying to solve the game.

- is also part of a pattern that i already talked about where you claim klick may be playing to pocket you despite that not really happening. is another example where it feels like you're forcing the narrative.

- again with the klick stuff, this one just feels really forced to me. it's hard to boil it down to a specific post but reading through the game and your iso it just doesn't feel like your mindset on klick tracks consistently, and posts like this one feel opportunistically placed to try to seem like you are paranoid


Spoiler: significantly towny things

- the towniest thing for me is more of an energy thing so it's sort of scattered across several posts, most of them at the end of coalition. it's that feeling of antsyness and indecision in your posts, where it feels like you don't have a clear agenda. , , , , , , . if you're scum a lot of this just feels... unnecessary? like it's very extra. if you're panicking about a partner being potentially included, you could have just not pushed for that earlier. the fact that it all comes at the last minute makes it feel real to me, so that's why i said that series of events is among the towniest posts in the game for me


Spoiler: the thrilling conclusion
after writing these all out and collecting my thoughts more, i think if i were like better at this game i would probably just pick whichever side of the read calls out more to my gut and run with it and ignore the alternative and appear confident and that would probably be generally more productive at getting results but im just not built like that, i think im too afraid of getting things wrong. maybe this will be helpful in some way to people who are trying to sort dragon themselves and then they can tell me what to think. that sounds nice.

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Post Post #952 (isolation #57) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:42 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

do you find it meaningful at all that both ydra and appearance primarily pushed coalitions that didn't include themselves until the very end

pedit: ah okay i see you mentioned this
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Post Post #953 (isolation #58) » Thu Jan 18, 2024 2:53 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

hm ill relook at context for 540
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Post Post #968 (isolation #59) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:09 am

Post by fireisredsir »

im going to keep my next 10 posts short for gob
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Post Post #969 (isolation #60) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:15 am

Post by fireisredsir »

after looking at context more i think implosions point about 540 being a post scum-ydra makes is probably true if there's 1 scum on coal.

i think i disagree on her making that post if there's 0 scum in her voted coal. its a waffling post yes but i don't think its a post that will convince anyone else to waffle, which is more important
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Post Post #970 (isolation #61) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:22 am

Post by fireisredsir »

this also has the context of being when dragon had somewhat started his antsiness but not fully

i think that in a dragon town world scum may have felt threatened by his last minute doubts and there's likely to be signs of that somewhere

this is why klick handing off the reins to him in that moment is either very confident or very towny, and i would lean towards the latter
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Post Post #971 (isolation #62) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 4:41 am

Post by fireisredsir »

to fully cover bases i did briefly consider if a dragon/klick scum world is viable and pretty quickly decided that no it isn't. i think like the entirety of everything would have played out differently if that was the case
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Post Post #974 (isolation #63) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:02 am

Post by fireisredsir »

dunn, who do you think is scum in the coalition?
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Post Post #980 (isolation #64) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 7:37 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i think fruit mafia is a useful read if you haven't
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Post Post #982 (isolation #65) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 8:32 am

Post by fireisredsir »

ari is a great scum partner, she gave some good advice
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Post Post #983 (isolation #66) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 8:35 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i think dragon tends to downplay his scum abilities, particularly when he's scum, but he def does plan a lot and has a lot of excess energy, he's just still learning how to best use that to his advantage

the question i guess is just how far he has gotten at this point on his path as a developing scum player. but from my reading at least it feels like he's going to get there at some point, and clearly wants to
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Post Post #986 (isolation #67) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 8:46 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i don't think quicklimming is like ever the winning play
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Post Post #988 (isolation #68) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:21 am

Post by fireisredsir »

im not really sure i would recommend sheeping my dragon read if you lim me. im not like even sure i scumread him anymore
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #69) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:39 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 991, Klick wrote: I've gone back to read Dragon's early game here

The main thing that feels compelling to me about Dragon!town is just how much he's into his own mindset

I don't know, I don't feel like I'm being... taken for a ride? In the way the scum games looked. The purpose of Dragon's free-flowing posting when he's scum seems to definitely be to project confidence and authentic progression of thought. Here, a lot of Dragon's posting feels very upfront, like 'I think Klick is town with a caveat, I think implosion is trying too hard to look like he's solving and here's why'. There's a sort of reasonableness behind it. I can see it just being where Dragon!town's head is at in the present moment. If there's an agenda, it's right in the open and not so aggressive, and I've not seen that as Dragon's go-to in his scum games.
this is a similar interpretation i have of his meta but i came away from the early game here with a different interpretation, i do feel like he's putting on more of a performance in those posts

like to the point where some of them for me the alternative to "this is a scum post and thats why it feels dishonest" is not "this is an honest townpost", it's "he's being dishonest/overexaggerating himself as town because he is trying to push the game forward"
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Post Post #1003 (isolation #70) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:40 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 992, DragonEater70 wrote: Duck.

I had this whole concept of how fireisredsir's town game looks and then I went and read one of his scum games and it looks identical. So I guess meta isn't going to save me here.
i don't really think they look identical, and i don't necessarily try to imitate my town game when i play scum, so i am a little curious for more details here
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #71) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:41 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 997, DragonEater70 wrote: Btw @fireisredisir do you use he/him or other pronouns?
you can use whatever
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Post Post #1007 (isolation #72) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:53 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1005, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1003, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 992, DragonEater70 wrote: Duck.

I had this whole concept of how fireisredsir's town game looks and then I went and read one of his scum games and it looks identical. So I guess meta isn't going to save me here.
i don't really think they look identical, and i don't necessarily try to imitate my town game when i play scum, so i am a little curious for more details here
Idk, my impression on your town game (from having half-spectated Describing Conker and from modding the Marathon game) is that you kinda feel like you have thoughts which you give very casually and sometimes don't really give but still have.

I checked Mini 2303 and I got the same overall vibe.
i guess probably if you're just trying to like toneread the individual posts you won't find much difference

the differences are more in overall approach to things
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Post Post #1009 (isolation #73) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:01 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i personally think its fun to think/talk about but i have no idea if it would be useful. partly because obviously if i were scum i could just lie, or bend the truth to suit the current situation. if you think it would be useful then ill have time to type more than a sentence or two in an hourish
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #74) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:56 am

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when did you decide that, and why?
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Post Post #1020 (isolation #75) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 1:12 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

is it wrong of me to expect more from you

i would not really expect town you to be townreading me here, based on past experience, or probably dragon either. maybe not scumreading either, but it feels weird to me that you're deciding appearance mostly on poe
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Post Post #1025 (isolation #76) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 2:56 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

im mostly thinking of scarfolk again, partly because this game has felt similar in a lot of ways to me, and i remember you being much more wary there

i could be wrong but i tend to think of town you as being on the skeptical side and generally not quick to townread

and just thinking more critically about the gamestate i guess

pedit: oh hello
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #77) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 2:58 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i do think the copy paste thing felt like a thing that town dunn does
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #78) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 3:05 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

implo the thing i am struggling with is it's hard for me to see ydra playing this way as scum, UNLESS her partner was in a quite stable position

i think if that's the case then the emotional trajectory tracks reasonably well, where she really didn't want to be in the coalition at all, and was happy to gently move things from the sidelines

but i think the people who qualify for that would be klick/dragon/appearance, maaaaaybe DV. (DV/elements being the two in the coal she voted for that was nearly passed earlier, but i think those two had a less stable game position). and part of your scumread on dunn slot is based on your townread of klick and dragon. it feels like a little bit underbaked i guess, like it doesn't feel to me like you've dug in to the logical conclusion of your thought processes

unless you just think it is appearance/dunn which i mean idk

pedit: oh hello again. i guess maybe you do
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Post Post #1033 (isolation #79) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 3:30 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

ok i am coming to the realization that i guess because there was the coalition forming and everything already, replacing in kind of felt like i was entering a game that was well into midgame and im kind of noticing that im mentally treating it that way

but actually this is still technically day 1 and still our first elimination and im probably overly stressing given that there's still a lot of time to sort things out

sorry i will try to reorient my brain to feel less like its the end of the world if we get this flip wrong and that also everyone else should be feeling that way too. im projecting too much
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #80) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 3:38 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i also just had the realization that part of why it feels like midgame to me is that there's a bunch of slots that i read their posts but they're not here anymore (because they replaced out) but it kind of gives me the subconscious illusion that they died
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Post Post #1055 (isolation #81) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:19 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

hi my phone died while out and i just got home late and im like half asleep

ik this is slightly ignoring what i said earlier but right now tbh my heart is telling me that dragon is our best chance at a hit and that's where id like to go

but idk im not coherent enough to make decisions i will revisit in the morning and vote and stuff
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #82) » Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:31 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

agree on appearance i think thats the worst of the proposed options

gn/gm
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Post Post #1091 (isolation #83) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 6:34 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i have a hard time seeing appearance making that kill
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Post Post #1100 (isolation #84) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 7:58 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1096, implosion wrote:though I don't think fire as scum would be specifically afraid of gob.
i don't think i would be either, but i don't really think anyone would be. like t3 said most people weren't taking him seriously. imo the main reason for scum to kill gob would be to limit unpredictability, and if they feel that it benefits them to push the game towards a state where people are talking to each other more

which i think, even if not taking gob's reads into account, makes a lot less sense to me as a priority for scum!appearance compared to the other 3 on coalition, myself included

although i guess thats only in the world where he is the only scum on coalition. it would be pretty reasonable if there's 2. but either way that makes me not inclined to want to lim him here
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Post Post #1102 (isolation #85) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 8:21 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i had some worries about klick overnight but im not sure if they're rational

so leaning dragon i guess but not feeling especially good about it
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Post Post #1107 (isolation #86) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 8:46 am

Post by fireisredsir »

:neutral_face:

i think its that giving a one line answer of a reaction about the gob kill should take less time than what you've already spent in thread not giving one
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #87) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:01 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1108, DragonEater70 wrote: I know it could be NAI but honestly it does feel like he's fake sorting me because as town he would either just let me be (because he TR's me) and sort other people
you think this describes how klick generally plays as town?

and also that it is applicable to the current gamestate?
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Post Post #1127 (isolation #88) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:06 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1125, DragonEater70 wrote: I can't say conclusively that he would play like this every game, but I do think what I described makes sense with his trajectory on me and how he usually plays as town.
the context is that his vote from yesterday just flipped town

and as of end of day yesterday he was leaning town on appearance, and townreading me and you

if he's town he knows that there's scum in the three of us

how do you expect him to approach to this day phase, if it isn't to sort through which of his townreads/townleans is scum?
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Post Post #1134 (isolation #89) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:16 am

Post by fireisredsir »

gonna think on things ill be back later
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Post Post #1146 (isolation #90) » Mon Jan 22, 2024 4:45 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1144, implosion wrote: Right now I'm mostly feeling that I just still don't buy dragon scum. This pivot on to Klick feels like, to a tee like what I'd expect him to do as town here in terms of tone and substance. It's the kind of thing that I think I'd expect often from him as town (because I think he probably tends to re-evaluate things at this point in the game + he's had consistent underlying suspicion/uncertainty about Klick since the coalition phase) and rarely from him as scum (because it along with the above post I quoted give me an impression of someone who is more concerned about saying his piece than being townread)
i can kind of understand this

i didn't think dragon's start to the day felt rational, but im not sure that it felt scummy
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #91) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 12:12 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1154, DragonEater70 wrote: Apologies for wallpost

That said

while writing it I came to doubt my scumread on Klick

so, IDK, it's 1:03 AM so I should probably go to sleep and decide what I think tomorrow.
if you haven't gone to sleep yet im curious if you can walk through your current thought process/mindstate on what led you to doubt. since it isn't really visible in the post
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Post Post #1165 (isolation #92) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:17 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

im feeling a little lost rn

this is around the time of day i usually talk to people but i think due to timezones in this list that doesn't happen

i guess deas should probably awake. deas are you around? i am interested in more elaboration on your thoughts
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Post Post #1166 (isolation #93) » Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:20 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i definitely didn't just try to google "deasvail time" to check what time it is there
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Post Post #1179 (isolation #94) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:14 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1169, implosion wrote: but all the little aspects of their play just feel like earnest town too, things like and the wallpost followed by immediately saying that writing the wallpost raised some apprehension on the Klick scumread are maybe the kinds of things I am more inclined to townread than I should be but I feel it all fits cohesively in a world where Dragon is town.
the issue i have with that part is that i wasn't really convinced that he was truly having doubts. it's easy to post a case and then say you have doubts, but generally with a town player writing a case who begins to have doubts while writing it, you will feel those doubts start to creep in to the case itself

the fact that they didn't means that by the end of the post, he was still writing with the confidence of the prior scumread but that was apparently performed because internally he was having doubts. which again brings us back to the question of, is it town dragon putting on a performance or is it scum dragon putting on a performance

but either way i think its hard to see the having doubts portion be a sign of genuine towniness. i don't really see the reason he provided as making sense to doubt a scumread that he seemed so confident in

it's a pretty weak reflective stepback

idk i just think the trajectory in general feels like it's leaning heavily on a dramatic display of what the reads are and the changes in reads and confidence in reads, but it's lacking the substance that makes me believe this is really something he's deeply thought about

and it does seem to me like dragon is the type of player who as town will be deeply thinking about these kind of things. i just haven't really seen that visible in this game, it mostly feels fairly shallow
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #95) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:25 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1178, DeasVail wrote: It's one of those situations where more depth of engagement would probably not change my reads a great deal. The unfortunate part of longer posts is that they are more often to justify an opinion I've already arrived at, but I do think that the reasoning behind what I've been thinking has not been as clear as it could have been at points here.
i think this may be true but it is definitely still useful to see the higher detail of your thought process, both to make sure that there actually is one that makes sense and also because if you're town i think seeing your reasoning is useful. its not really about changing your reads, im just not very good at solving alone, i usually need to see what other people are thinking and talk to them about their ideas in order to solve well

i do think it's probably somewhat on the townier side for you to not feel as much of a need to display these thought processes, although i guess there's not much pressure for you to appear towny at this time since we're limming elsewhere

gl with the move
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Post Post #1182 (isolation #96) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:29 am

Post by fireisredsir »

are you able to properly describe it now?
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Post Post #1220 (isolation #97) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 12:58 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

dragon, what are your thoughts on a potential scum!klick's motivations for relinquishing control of the coalition vote to you?
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Post Post #1229 (isolation #98) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:30 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1228, implosion wrote: I think that I feel very dismissive of possible reasons to scumread Dragon right now which maybe I shouldn't be but I feel like there is just a pile of reasons to townread him at this point.
it does also feel that way to me

i dunno i just don't really get the feeling that you're trying to see things from my perspective here

which i guess okay thats fine. fair enough
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Post Post #1230 (isolation #99) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:39 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

the thing im wrestling with is that part of me thinks it wouldn't really be that bad if i do get flipped today

bc like i currently am mostly seeing a lot of reasons to townread each of the 3 remaining slots, and im struggling to figure out which of those are wrong

and i have a really hard time believing that even if i do end up with a clear scumread, it will be one that im super confident in. and i feel like i can easily forsee a future where i push for someone and am wrong and then it's elo and i probably get flipped and that is probably justified

so like there's a chance that if everyone does have it confirmed that there's scum in klick/dragon/appearance, then they'll find it easier to find the correct solve

but also at the same time i currently have that piece of info and am not really getting anywhere with it so idk
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Post Post #1231 (isolation #100) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:40 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i feel like i keep ending up in this same position in games and it's a struggle every time
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Post Post #1232 (isolation #101) » Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:45 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i should maybe do the exercise where i list the reasons i have to townread each slot and then decide which ones are the worst. that's been helpful in the past
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #102) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:31 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1239, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1220, fireisredsir wrote: dragon, what are your thoughts on a potential scum!klick's motivations for relinquishing control of the coalition vote to you?
1. Pocket me as I had already said on Day 1 when you were queationing me on why I was thinking Klick might've been pocketing me.

2. Have clean hands when the coalition fails.

3. Look extra towny for doing an act that "endangers his wincon"

That said, I don't think your questioning trajectory is a towny one.
the thing i was looking for was if there was any thought from you about whether klick scum would be in danger if losing by proposing that, and if not, who his partner is

like i don't think "endangers wincon" should be in quotes. you were very clearly considering leaving him out

the only way that it's a guaranteed safe play for him is if either him or his partner are for sure going to be in the coalition you choose

and it doesn't feel like you've thought about this at all which is strange to me because it feels like a very important consideration when it comes to solving this game
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Post Post #1250 (isolation #103) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:33 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1237, DragonEater70 wrote: I actually heavily disagree about this about me. Like yeah sometimes I do have something I think about and analyze and whatever, but 80% of my reads in games are like gutreads. And especially when I have a logic-based read clashing with a gutread I often just follow the gutread without thinking about it too much.
i believe that this is your own impression of your townplay and thus what you would try to imitate as scum, but i don't believe it's actually accurate having recently read most of your games
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #104) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:34 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1240, DragonEater70 wrote: Like you are trying to make me explain the scumread on Klick minutes after I unvoted him

How does this make sense
i don't care about your votes im trying to see if your thought process is real
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Post Post #1257 (isolation #105) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:51 am

Post by fireisredsir »

that just seems like a fundamental misunderstanding of how i play both alignments
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Post Post #1258 (isolation #106) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:55 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i dunno

ive been lacking motivation to push anywhere because i don't really currently feel like it improves town win% for me to do so

im probably wrong about that but that doesn't really change the feeling
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Post Post #1259 (isolation #107) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:58 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i think if im scum here there's basically zero reason not to push hard since scum in the coalition isn't trying to endgame anyway they just want to yeet townies
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Post Post #1264 (isolation #108) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 7:03 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1260, DragonEater70 wrote: As town, fire would decide on a read even if it was wrong, because when you push a wrong read you can actually find out you were wrong. Like how I pushed Klick and then decided I was probably wrong.
i really wish this was true
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Post Post #1265 (isolation #109) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 7:05 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1262, DragonEater70 wrote: UNVOTE: fire

I'm gonna give you an hour to actually do something that pushes the gamestate forward, then I am putting my vote back.
not gonna happen in an hour

i can try tonight
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Post Post #1266 (isolation #110) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 7:09 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1263, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1250, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1237, DragonEater70 wrote: I actually heavily disagree about this about me. Like yeah sometimes I do have something I think about and analyze and whatever, but 80% of my reads in games are like gutreads. And especially when I have a logic-based read clashing with a gutread I often just follow the gutread without thinking about it too much.
i believe that this is your own impression of your townplay and thus what you would try to imitate as scum, but i don't believe it's actually accurate having recently read most of your games
Please point me to a counter-example then, if you really have read most of my games (why though?)
can't go digging rn but off the top of my head i remember in particular your thought process surrounding aureal i believe in that large theme about the mods or whatever

like yes you usually tend to have gutreads and that triggers the initial thought process but i think when you're town it's really clear that there is still a deeper layer of underlying thought beneath that, and you don't just get a gutread and leave it at that, you're working on analyzing why and thinking carefully about the read
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Post Post #1276 (isolation #111) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:24 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1274, DragonEater70 wrote: fireisred, what time is it in the land of crimson flame? Because I think your time might be up but I am too charitable so I'm willing to give you a bit more time if you really need it.
idk i don't see why voting matters unless you think we're going to end day right away

maybe we are but i don't really see why we would do that

im content to like continue trying to solve and then later y'all lim me anyway if you want to do that
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Post Post #1277 (isolation #112) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:25 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i am around now but also eepy
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Post Post #1278 (isolation #113) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:26 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1275, implosion wrote: So I guess I think fire is the best lim for the reasons that fire thinks they're an okay lim, which actually might be a thing fire posts more frequently as scum than as town.
i don't think id let myself end up in this position as scum and i am frequently in it as town
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Post Post #1279 (isolation #114) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:26 pm

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although i do understand that its like kinda surface level scummy/lamist/whatever but it's also just true
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Post Post #1280 (isolation #115) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:51 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

but anyway one thing that i wanted to talk about was where my doubts on klick were coming from earlier

which mostly was that i feel like me and klick tend to approach games in fairly similar ways and have fairly similar mindsets and overnight it was nagging at me a little bit the way that klick concluded the day yesterday. i think because it felt like his process was what i expected but he was coming to different conclusions. particularly . i just found it hard to believe that klick town sees things that way, because i was looking for the same things and came away with the opposite conclusion

and felt concerningly like what i think scum klick may do if me/dragon was tvt and he wanted to push it aside for later and take the "easy" lim in dunn/appearance

what i was feeling at the time was that i thought town klick would be more likely to see things i was seeing about dragon, unless he had been successfully pocketed. as im reading again and writing about this now though, i kind of think it's more likely to be town indicative, since he would be more likely to be not trusting of my arguments if he thinks im potential scum. if he's scum who knows im town, it seems likely that he'd be more accommodating towards me to get on my side

then at the start of d2, in the moment i was reallllly sketched out a bit by and . idk. it just felt a lot to me like exactly what i had been concerned about in a potential scum!klick, which was to save me and dragon for later and then buddy up to me against dragon. and particularly the soul read comment felt off (reading it now, idk, maybe it wasn't 100% serious?) because that seemed like a pretty obvious line of logic so it didn't make sense to have that reaction to it. the vote also felt like it was an attempt to directly appease me

however

puts the actions in a context that do make more sense to me as a town!klick approach. i think it's possible this is a narrative that was assigned retroactively, but it is a pretty believable one

i do think there's a lot of things klick have done that its hard for me to see him doing as scum. i definitely disagree with dragon's argument that there was little risk for him to hand off control of the coalition vote. that's a big one for me
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Post Post #1281 (isolation #116) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:54 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i guess im back to just thinking it's dragon after more thoroughly considering the klick world

i had some periods of doubt on appearance but part of me feels like the fact that nobody seems to be considering him makes me feel like he is kinda being overall tmi'd by someone as town

the legendary threadspew... could it be
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Post Post #1282 (isolation #117) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:56 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i think if dragon is scum i would definitely rule out klick as a partner

and. that's maybe it
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #118) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 8:57 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

ah hm actually
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #119) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:06 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

idk if i have the energy to explain in detail but dragon/dv is actually making a ton of sense to me rn
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Post Post #1285 (isolation #120) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:51 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

ok idk why i had been putting off looking at this again for so long and ive just been like sitting in a puddle of zero wim sorry about that

i was gonna go to sleep but i want to put this out there while its fresh on my mind. i know now it's probably too late so whatever my bad but hear me out

the thing that really never made sense to me about dragon being scum was the end of coalition forming. he had a lot of what felt like towny energy, and was just all over the place, and it didn't make sense to me bc i didn't see why any of that benefited scum or made sense at all coming from a scum approach to the game. it just really felt like town unsure what direction to go

but!

we know from dragon scum games that he actually has that kind of energy a lot of the time as scum. see these kind of posts from fruit mafia scum pt:

Spoiler:

Subject: Micro 1090: Fruit Mafia - Vegetable Chat
In post 136, DragonEater70 wrote: I know which is why we lim them today.

OR, we lim Skitter and tomorrow I claim cop with N1 inno on Datisi and N2 inno on you and we ignore atsi pushing me.

It's a really risky strat but it is still a valid one.
In post 140, DragonEater70 wrote: It's pretty bold and also probably anti-wincon for scum which is why I would get hella townread for doing it out the gate.
In post 181, DragonEater70 wrote: Okay I just came up with the best freaking idea for a fake claim

Like I think it's pretty risky but it's funny as hell and I think if I pull it off well then Datisi and Skitter would absolutely eat it up.

We lim atsi, nightkill Ausuka, then I say I viggied her because I realized her miller claim must be fake, and also the reason I town read Skitter so hard D1 is I was sure Skitter was a cop and that's why they TR'd Ausuka for claiming miller, but D2 I realized Skitter wasn't a cop so my TR of her dropped and it made me realize there's probably no cop so Ausuka is fakeclaiming.

Idk if this makes any sense whatsoever, it's probably a horrible strat, but it's so damn funny to think about and I don't see Datisi going "yeah that's scum" but rather "oh I guess that makes sense"

And the banana peel thing would justify why scum didn't kill.

K the more I think about it the worse it sounds but I still want to try it if circumstances allow it.
In post 218, DragonEater70 wrote: But I was thinking about killing Datisi rolecopping Skitt and if they are VT (which I'm 95% sure they are) pocket them by saying I was sure they were cop the whole time (I actually have a good explanation of why I would think that), which would
probably
make me seem extremely uninformed. And then I just lament Datisi's death and sheep Skitter and it's GG.

Spoiler:

my prediction is that your response would be something like "we don't need to do that, we extremely well positioned, etc."
But the point is whether or not we kill Dats.
In post 224, DragonEater70 wrote:
I'll tell you what, I really want to No Kill and frame it as Skitter trying to kill Datisi but getting roleblocked by the banana that Infinity planted. But I can't think of any believable claim to justify why we would know that Datisi was the NK target.

Ao first, do you like the idea? And second, can you think of any claim?

Otherwise we might beed to just kill Datisi, as unfortunate as that would be.


like absolutely wild ideas, and they just keep pouring out while ari is just in there like "uhhhh i don't think we need to do that"

he hasn't had that kind of chaotic over-planning energy in every scum game but it's definitely in there somewhere. and in this game, where he was largely in a good position, widely townread, etc etc, it doesn't seem like there would be the the kind of pressure that would induce that kind of behavior

except... for if he gets asked to choose the coalition. that alone might not do it. but what i think would cause that kind of genuine level of stress and confusion over which direction to go, would be if he is pushed into a place where he has to make a decision between keeping his partner in and keeping his partner out, while also making it believably look like a town thought process

here's the general progression in the last day or so of coalition forming:
Spoiler:
In post 432, DragonEater70 wrote: HEAL: DeasVail, Klick, DragonEater70, Elements, Appearance
In post 439, DragonEater70 wrote: HURT: all

Don't want this hammered before I see what Elements thinks andDV's additional thoughts
In post 443, DragonEater70 wrote: Okay that sells it for me

HURT: DV/Klick
HEAL: Ydrasse

I really want to heal Kyo. Can somebody explain why she's scum actually?
In post 445, DragonEater70 wrote: Oh I forgot I wasn't healing them

:lol:

I think it's clear what I meant to do

HURT: all
HEAL: Elements, Ydra, Dragon, Appearance
In post 458, DragonEater70 wrote: For the last time (hopefully),
HURT: all

Whoever I heal from now on will remain healed forever and ever.
In post 485, DragonEater70 wrote: There's also the fact that she actually feels like she cares a lot more than DV feels like he cares, tbh. Like Klick you said you TR DV because he cares but literally every post Kyo made since 360 feels like she really cares and is genuinely trying to solve here and doesn't want to get it wrong. She could have easily just gone with Appearance but didn't.

Pedit: I get why you're annoyed. I think either of implo/T3 or implo/DV are more likely than implo/Kyo tbh.
In post 520, DragonEater70 wrote: Alright Klick

I have an idea

You said your hard PoE is Kyo/T3/implo

What do you say about a coal of dragon/app/el/dv/ydra?

Then I won't have the paranoia about you and I am even going to as far as to say I will town lock you if it fails, if it's any consolation.

Pedit: no Klick is just too towny I can't resist having him in the coalition :sob:
In post 564, DragonEater70 wrote: See the problem is everyone except implo and T3 is really towny

And I am kinda refusing to believe the game is just this easy, though maybe it really is this easy.

It's funny Klick that I feel if Bella was in your slot I would have had so much easier time being confident in my town read of your slot. I mean it's funny because I was thinking about her without making the connection in my mind.
In post 565, DragonEater70 wrote: Ugh

I wanna sleep

Should I just hammer? Assuming Klick re-votes.
In post 575, DragonEater70 wrote: Meh

If I had another full day or two I might have gone somewhere different but I kinda want to hammer

BUT

Maybe let's do this instead:

Kyo/app/klick/ydra/dragon?
In post 584, DragonEater70 wrote: Unfortunate






HURT: all
HEAL: Ydra/Dragon/Klick/Appearance

Um

Elements, Kyo, or DV?

I'm actually going to throw a die here

Okay it landed on Elements

HEAL: Elements

Pedit: yes
In post 585, DragonEater70 wrote: HURT: Elements
HEAL: Kyo

Okay seriously I need to sleep and if this fails then it fails

It's just a game

Goodnight

Feel free to either sheep this or tell Kyo to hammer the other one. Klick is in charge.


i think the pattern here looks pretty close to how i would expect it to look if scum dragon were debating on whether or not to go for one of those risky gambit type plays, if his partner is among [dv, klick, kyo, elements]

i think it doesn't make any sense at all paired with t3 or implosion, bc they were never really in the conversation. but any of those, i could see it happening. and i don't think he's paired with klick. so that leaves DV

and generally i think DV's approach here does fit really well with having a partner who is widely townread and basically a lock for the coalition

AND dragon fits the very stereotypical scum coalition pattern of: initially amplify townreads on partner to get both in a good position, then when one of you is widely townread, scumread your partner to push them out, and then basically forget about the scumread as soon as coalition passes

i think thats one of the biggest things standing out to me right now actually. the shift in approach from dragon between when coalition was forming and now is massive. at that point, everything was about overall gamestate, analyzing teams, working with poes, generally trying to look as towny as possible. but now i don't get the impression that he's trying to solve the game as a whole at all. there's been multiple instances where it's felt like he's pointedly ignored considering who could be the partner of the person he's pushing. it's just a completely different way of looking at the game, and yes, the gamestate has changed, but if you look at for example t3/implo/klick, the way they're currently solving still feels like the same general approach they had earlier in the game, and i think that comes from a town mindset of genuinely wanting to solve the game
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #121) » Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:52 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

sorry for long messy post i don't even really think anyone is going to find this as compelling as i do but it makes a lot of sense to me and i can talk more tomorrow goodnight

if you lim me then probably don't sheep me after but at least read what im saying and heavily consider it please thanks
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Post Post #1299 (isolation #122) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:42 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1291, DragonEater70 wrote: fire weren't you scumreading me a moment ago though

how come you are talking about Klick as if he's your bigger SR
your whole point earlier was that i was scum bc i was sitting on the fence too much and kept being unsure who was scum between you and klick, so idk why this is confusing to you

i hadn't really explicitly talked about what my doubts were on klick and so i thought it would be useful to do that both bc then i could better see for myself if i felt they were valid and also so that i don't feel dumb for having died without saying them

but then over the course of writing that post i started to lean towards thinking the doubts weren't that significant compared to the towny things i feel klick has done
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Post Post #1300 (isolation #123) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:49 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1289, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1276, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1274, DragonEater70 wrote: fireisred, what time is it in the land of crimson flame? Because I think your time might be up but I am too charitable so I'm willing to give you a bit more time if you really need it.
idk i don't see why voting matters unless you think we're going to end day right away

maybe we are but i don't really see why we would do that

im content to like continue trying to solve and then later y'all lim me anyway if you want to do that
Well I'm kinda feeling like you might bw limmed but maybe that's just me reading the gamestate incorrectly.
yes i do also think i will very likely be limmed here, as in this day phase, but i was saying that i don't really expect that people will want to end the day like. immediately right now
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Post Post #1301 (isolation #124) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:56 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1292, DragonEater70 wrote: I did really hate 1131 though

fml can you both stop having good reasons to be either town or scum

It's really annoying me
can you like summarize what your reasons are for me being town or scum
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #125) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:47 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1303, DragonEater70 wrote: Scum:
you still haven't really done what I asked you to do which is to make up your mind and have an actual read on the Dragon v Klick thing which FYPOV should contain one scum. It feels like you are trying to keep both options open.
how would keeping both options open be at all beneficial to me as scum in the current gamestate?
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Post Post #1319 (isolation #126) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:48 am

Post by fireisredsir »

for someone who is apparently scumreading and trying to sort me it sure seems like dragon has very little interest in actually reading my posts
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Post Post #1320 (isolation #127) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 5:52 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1314, DragonEater70 wrote: So are you saying my partner is either you or Klickthis case makes no sense
like i don't see how this post comes from anyone reading in good faith or giving things more than just a skim
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Post Post #1328 (isolation #128) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:19 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1324, DragonEater70 wrote: Like okay yeah I could see why you could see DV as either my or Klick's partner because I can see him as Klick's partner for the same reasons.

But I can't see why you are scumreading me for a meta argument about what I could think as scum rather than what I could do as scum.
that isn't the reason i think you're scum, i already gave a lot of reasons why i think you're scum

that's the reason why i think i was wrong to previously believe that portion of the game wouldn't come from scum and so you were more likely to be town
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Post Post #1329 (isolation #129) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:19 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1325, DragonEater70 wrote: Thing is, even after 1285 you haven't really voted me and haven't really expressed a verdict on Klick. Like basically what I got from you is that there are a lot of reasons why Klick is scum but maybe he's town, andthen on the other hand there are reasons why I am town but then actually they are inside what you imagine to be my scumrange (maybe correctly, but probably not), so therefore I am scum? With DV?

It feels very incomplete.
yes i think you are scum and klick is town, you shouldn't need a vote to figure that out
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Post Post #1332 (isolation #130) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:24 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1326, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1318, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1303, DragonEater70 wrote: Scum:
you still haven't really done what I asked you to do which is to make up your mind and have an actual read on the Dragon v Klick thing which FYPOV should contain one scum. It feels like you are trying to keep both options open.
how would keeping both options open be at all beneficial to me as scum in the current gamestate?
Because if you are scum then there is currently a town block of Klick/Dragon/DV, which has just gone through infighting and you'd like to be able to steer both me and Klick to vote the other, but you aren't really sure which one is the viable lim if any, so you are leaving both semi-viable.

Do you disagree that this is the case if you are scum?
yes i disagree, there's no reason to wait things out. that literally gains me nothing if im scum. if you were all town it would just give you time to find each other

if im scum who wants to not die today then one of you two or appearance has to be the elim and the way to make that happen is to push for it. sitting around waiting means i would have no strong position in the game and means people probably just default to pushing me
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Post Post #1333 (isolation #131) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:26 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1331, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1329, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1325, DragonEater70 wrote: Thing is, even after 1285 you haven't really voted me and haven't really expressed a verdict on Klick. Like basically what I got from you is that there are a lot of reasons why Klick is scum but maybe he's town, andthen on the other hand there are reasons why I am town but then actually they are inside what you imagine to be my scumrange (maybe correctly, but probably not), so therefore I am scum? With DV?

It feels very incomplete.
yes i think you are scum and klick is town, you shouldn't need a vote to figure that out
I'm saying your thought process feels incomplete regardless of the vote or lack thereof.
i mean sure its incomplete if you keep ignoring parts of it
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Post Post #1334 (isolation #132) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:27 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1330, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1328, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1324, DragonEater70 wrote: Like okay yeah I could see why you could see DV as either my or Klick's partner because I can see him as Klick's partner for the same reasons.

But I can't see why you are scumreading me for a meta argument about what I could think as scum rather than what I could do as scum.
that isn't the reason i think you're scum, i already gave a lot of reasons why i think you're scum

that's the reason why i think i was wrong to previously believe that portion of the game wouldn't come from scum and so you were more likely to be town
Could ypu refresh my memory? Because I mostly remember you saying I'm in my scumrange, being performative (even though I'm SUPER known to be performative as town, not sure if it was this game where I quoted proof of this or another one), and then trying to get townread which again is something I do as town.

If there's any other reason please remind me what it is.
i can write out more later but most of it is in my iso
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Post Post #1338 (isolation #133) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:36 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1335, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 875, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 853, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 838, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 804, fireisredsir wrote: mmm is a pretty good post if dragon is scum
What does this even mean
it means that it felt well-placed as far as gaining towncred, and if you're scum then it was well-timed and well-written. i have seen you play scum (pretty well imo) but it still made me stop and consider whether it was something i should be considering out of your range

i don't think id say it's a necessarily towny post (i would say the towniest posting you have is at the end of coalition phase) but it's certainly a post that is good at looking towny. i think you'd probably agree even if you are town that there is an element of performing for the sake of getting townread I. your posts, and whenever someone has that playstyle i find it hard to parse because i just see the performance and can't tell if its town performance or scum performance
I am performatove as town a lot

Quotes of people saying I am performatove as town (while being town themselves):
In post 401, Save The Dragons wrote: i feel like this is how DE70 plays it's always going to be a little calculated and verbose
In post 347, usesPython wrote:
In post 345, Aneninen wrote:
In post 317, DragonEater70 wrote: Python's hammer is really fucking weird wtf.
In post 319, DragonEater70 wrote: Wait
This is not a hammer it's a meme
lol.
In post 322, DragonEater70 wrote: UNVOTE:
Temporarily because I don't want more "memes" happening.
This 3 together sounds "fabricated" in my mind. I can't put my finger on it why, though.
DE always sounds performative, it's not really alignment indicative for him
Yeah this

And then you keep talking about the question of whether I'm town performative or scum performative, but I don't see your thought process on this (except for 1285 I guess, which basically says there's a certain narrative where it could work as scum performative but I see no explanation of why you think that narrative is likelier than town performative).

Which reminds me of this article which explains why scum push things as "possible" while town look at what's *probable*.
you keep taking my points and assigning them into boxes that strip them of any nuance and aren't really related to what i was saying anyway, and then disproving it based on the label that you yourself put on it

nothing about what i was saying recently really had anything to do with deciding whether you were "town performative" or "scum performative"
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Post Post #1339 (isolation #134) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:36 am

Post by fireisredsir »

if anyone else feels my thought process is unclear or incomplete please lmk and i can explain otherwise i don't really think this is worth it
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Post Post #1340 (isolation #135) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:37 am

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In post 1337, DragonEater70 wrote: I am not saying you are waiting. I am saying you are simultaneously pushing me and leaving the possibility of pushing Klick open.
like i feel like this blatantly obviously does not describe my play at any point today

am i completely off base there does anyone besides dragon see things this way
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Post Post #1341 (isolation #136) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:42 am

Post by fireisredsir »

saying that my scumread is based on you "being too towny" is also like clearly bad faith
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Post Post #1343 (isolation #137) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:39 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 384, implosion wrote: Still kinda demotivated. Partially for RL reasons but mostly in game.

There's a world where is dragon + one of DV/Klick as scum and Dragon sees an excuse to try to replace the double-scum coalition that's been building with a single-scum coalition. That would also mirror my play in the scum coalition game I mentioned. In that sense that when the game was going well, I went a bit out of my way to try to get the other scum off of the coalition (when that plan failed, I had to bus them on the first lim).

I think if that is the case, it's not really actionable now (aside from just keeping the original coalition Dragon suggested rather than switching). Or rather it's not like, something that's going to make me want to lim one of those people if the coalition fails, more of a "if the game gets to final 5 and dragon + either klick or DV are alive, remember to look back at this".

fmpov a lot of all the current speculation coming from like klick and dragon (especially klick) is kind of blasé because yeah, I agree with the analysis that if I'm town the coalition is likely to fail and beyond that there's not really much to say >_>. I don't think there are any politically feasible coalitions that are likely to succeed right now. That said I am waning on my specific feeling of Dragon being scum. While 361 makes a lot of sense in the specific case I mentioned, outside of that it's kind of a thing that I wouldn't expect scum to do in the gamestate, it's a bit of a rocking-the-boat action to remove those two from the coalition and I think Dragon is probably mostly happy to ride the wave of the gamestate if he's scum, modulo needing to possibly dodge a double scum coalition.
reading this again it might have actually just been right
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Post Post #1345 (isolation #138) » Fri Jan 26, 2024 9:40 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i don't want to spam the thread too much but i was rereading to see if i felt the solve made sense in the early game and i think it does

and into in particular feel pretty questionable. "trying hard to be townread" is basically dv's reason to suspect dragon, so the fact that dragon assigning that read to someone else is being treated as a mindmeld and reason to townread is kinda ?

in general i think their reads on each other are fairly awkward. there's more of that from the dragon direction and im not really sure how to feel about DV identifying and calling that out himself here

also when i came across again i think especially it doesn't make sense from a town mindset coming right after and it kinda feels to me like tmi that the townblock is not at all pure. i don't think town here would have this reaction given the way dragon has been treating klick in the game
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #139) » Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:39 am

Post by fireisredsir »

well that's just very faulty logic
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Post Post #1350 (isolation #140) » Sat Jan 27, 2024 7:42 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1346, DeasVail wrote: fire, I need a world where Dragon is scum with someone other than me. I sometimes want to entertain the thought, but I'm not sure that he makes sense as scum with anyone else particularly so I'm left thinking that it's probably you that I should be voting for here.
i mean ive been looking and i don't think i see one either so im not really expecting that you will be changing your vote here or that i should be trying to convince you

if you are actually town then at this point i think it's more likely that im wrong on dragon and it's in appearance/klick. but i don't really see that

dragon/appearance is maybe possible but i wouldn't want to lim appearance over dragon anyway
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Post Post #1354 (isolation #141) » Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:14 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1352, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1349, fireisredsir wrote: well that's just very faulty logic
So is it faulty logic or bad faith
it's definitely faulty logic, and it feels to me like that faulty logic is being used in bad faith

it's possible that you genuinely believe your logic is sound but i think if you're scum you're just saying things to sound aggressively confident
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Post Post #1360 (isolation #142) » Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:20 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1357, Klick wrote: Or fire could be town, doing this to try to have as clear a signpost for town to follow as possible upon his elimination (but then why is he saying 'probably don't sheep me'?).
Spoiler:

explaining further may or may not be helpful, but i can. i think that isn't quite right but close

i do want to make it clear what my current reads are and i want to make sure it's very clear why i have those reads. to me, the why is more important in this case. i want people to be able to dig into those reasons for themselves and ideally engage with them and see if they agree. even more ideal would be if they like asked me questions on any places where they have doubts or reasons that aren't as convincing to them. because if i am getting limmed, today is our current last chance to have the maximum number of town talking to each other, which means it's our best chance to solve. after this the thread will be more dense with scum voices, so if me flipping sends everyone into a place of "i don't know who it is!" then we probably just lose

when i say don't sheep me, what i mean is i don't want people to just blindly vote who i say i think is scum. to be transparent, i think a lot of me not wanting that comes from being afraid of it being "my fault" if we lose, and despite being fairly confident not wanting to take on that kind of responsibility

but i do want people to listen to what i have to say and consider it carefully especially given the knowledge that it's coming from town, and then decide for themselves whether they come to the same conclusion
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Post Post #1361 (isolation #143) » Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:30 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i understand the general weariness around the dragon discussion though

im trying not to have an overbearing presence on the thread right now bc i think thats unhealthy for the game but i also want to make my points and positions clear idk

i think ideally other people would be talking to each other more instead of me feeling like the center of each talking point but i don't really know if taking a step back is more helpful here
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Post Post #1362 (isolation #144) » Sat Jan 27, 2024 4:39 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1357, Klick wrote: I have done thinking about the probable scumteams in a fire!town world and have come to basically the same conclusion as fire has posted, that the most viable scumteam in that scenario is DragonEater/DeasVail. However, I am unconvinced currently that either of these players is actually scum.
i guess this implies that my townflip would be the missing piece that would allow you to be convinced

which is a bit relieving and maybe means i can stop worring as much, aside from the usual worry that i am Wrong, Actually

although i have no idea where implo and appearance's heads are at
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Post Post #1372 (isolation #145) » Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:38 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1370, DragonEater70 wrote: I think you are probably not a horrible person outsode of this game
gee thanks
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Post Post #1373 (isolation #146) » Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:44 am

Post by fireisredsir »

it feels like there is a general misconception that my was about why i think dragon is scum, and it isnt, it's why i realized that my reason for thinking dragon didn't make sense as scum (despite a lot of other signs pointing that way for me) was invalid. so yes the thing that you are describing it as being (and therefore a Bad Case) is in fact exactly what it is

the context isn't even that other people were locktowning him for it, it's something i was struggling with in my own read. idk if it even is a big factor for other people it seems like they're townreading him for other stuff

to remedy this i was going to clarify what my reasons for thinking dragon is scum are (as in the specific things that i think make sense from scum but dont make sense from town) but currently i feel somewhat less enthused about doing that so idk maybe later
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Post Post #1395 (isolation #147) » Mon Jan 29, 2024 3:26 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i guess this is the point where i should like interrogate people's reasons to scumread me to determine which of them are legitimate reads but i don't usually find much success in that approach

i think even though all of the reasons given so far are pretty vague i read them and mostly go "yeah fair okay" with the main exception being dragon

it is possible that im tunneled partially due to that i dunno

as much as i would like to clear appearance i don't think my reasons for doing so are like amazing or infallible here
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Post Post #1406 (isolation #148) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:01 am

Post by fireisredsir »

im named fireisred and im feeling unsure about all of this

this feels like a pretty unnecessary path for scum dragon to take
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Post Post #1407 (isolation #149) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:02 am

Post by fireisredsir »

why don't you want DV's thoughts
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Post Post #1411 (isolation #150) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:09 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1401, DragonEater70 wrote: is just completely off from a town's viewpoint. If she doesn't know who to elim she shouldn't be defaulting to herself as town, she should work to find who to elim. Like how is a miselim on town!fire going to help us figure out the scum. Specifically they say "if everyone knows there's confirmed scum in Klick/Dragon/App then it'd be easier to figure out the scum there" but wouldn't it be confirmed to town!fire that there's scum in us and yet they're struggling?
i mean basically because i agree with this:
In post 1408, Klick wrote: I think fire scum viability is high here, and regardless I think eliminating him probably does the healthiest thing for the gamestate if we miss compared to other options
i think if we're wrong elsewhere we just lose. but if people see that they're wrong on me then maybe they can sort things out

im struggling because i have a hard time figuring out who is scum when most of the thread suspects me. this is an issue i run into often as town it's not a new thing
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #151) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:17 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i mean for full transparency i would like appreciate if people decided on their own that they didn't want to lim me here because obviously that gives us a better chance at winning. but i know that if we flip someone else who's town today then i like very likely and understandably get voted by town tomorrow and i think that's worse and it's hard for me to take the risk of being wrong

i also just don't really like fighting against my own elimination especially when several of the people pushing me have to be town. i do take it as a compliment that people think i could be scum here lol so im not like upset about it. i would prefer if they found me as town but if they don't that's probably on me

you might be right that it isnt like a very good or correct town mindset to have but it is one nonetheless
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Post Post #1417 (isolation #152) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:27 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1401, DragonEater70 wrote: But if you actually go through her ISO I don't feel this makes sense as a progression because in (which I talked about just now) she said she basically TRs me and Klick equally and it doesn't really sound she has any up-to-date reasons to scunread me.
so i think we probably approach reading people very differently

but at that point i had a lot of reasons that i felt were strong reasons to scumread you. however this was at the time being outweighed by something that i thought only made sense coming from town

and like as a general mafia philosophy i tend to believe that one extremely towny thing can outweigh a lot of scummy things

so overall despite me feeling like i mostly had reasons to scumread you, i felt like i couldn't logically give then the weight that i instinctively wanted to, because i thought i might just be wrong overall due to the towny thing

i think that's why i got excited when i felt like i found a reason that made sense for you to post like that as scum. it made the pieces finally align and it felt like everything clicked. and i do think it's possible i got over-eager to see things in a way that made to pieces fit and i think i probably tunneled a bit because of it
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Post Post #1418 (isolation #153) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:29 am

Post by fireisredsir »

oops sorry i was supposed to not give thoughts bye
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Post Post #1420 (isolation #154) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 8:21 am

Post by fireisredsir »

can you talk about what you think my goals would be as scum and how i would be going about them here?

or is that more of a vague "fire could be doing whatever as scum"
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Post Post #1422 (isolation #155) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 10:09 am

Post by fireisredsir »

i think that's fairly insightful and does feel like you've given this some significant thought which i am glad to see

i think your theory is probably on the right track to what i would expect are the differences as well. although i think the distinction is that faking a town mindset and progression is not generally my primary goal as scum, it's more of a side effect. the main goal is identifying a path to victory and planning in advance how my posting needs to evolve over time in order to accomplish that. i dont think my primary goal is ever for people to pick up on my mindset being consistent, because 99% of the time nobody actually reads or tracks things closely enough to notice. honestly i mostly do it for fun

my play this game i think if analyzed from the right lens would be noticeably lacking a scum plan although it's hard to say objectively what my play looks like from an outside viewing angle. i just know that i don't have one, so it isn't there, and probably there's signs of that although i don't know what they are
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Post Post #1423 (isolation #156) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 10:54 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1403, DragonEater70 wrote: Like I could see why a town player could be frustrated with this day phase because I am very frustrated with it, but I just don't think this is a frustration town!Klick has from seeing his reaction to TvT's in previous games.
i am confused by this take because i don't think Klick's perspective here has been that it is a TvT so im not sure why you're making that comparison
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Post Post #1424 (isolation #157) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:02 am

Post by fireisredsir »

while i am here i will also just throw out there that if it isn't dragon i am mildly worried that t3 could have been trying to pocket me/prop up my push earlier
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Post Post #1425 (isolation #158) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:04 am

Post by fireisredsir »

at the time when he said he voted dragon after he read my case i was like yeah!!

and thinking about that now im like hmm
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Post Post #1431 (isolation #159) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:36 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1429, DragonEater70 wrote: Just to clarify, I am saying that Klick has been acting like he thinks Dragon/Klick is TvT, not Klick/fire or Dragon/fire or some other interaction.
oh i see, i thought you were talking about you/me, thats why i was confused
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Post Post #1434 (isolation #160) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:39 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1430, DragonEater70 wrote:
In post 1424, fireisredsir wrote: while i am here i will also just throw out there that if it isn't dragon i am mildly worried that t3 could have been trying to pocket me/prop up my push earlier
What makes you feel that way?
a lot of his posts about me kinda feel that way, but in particular i don't really think my 1285 would be especially convincing to anyone else, so it's a little strange that he voted for you after reading it
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Post Post #1435 (isolation #161) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:40 am

Post by fireisredsir »

In post 1432, DragonEater70 wrote: So like IDK

Am I supposed to be TRing both of you and then compromise on Appearance and then be very very sad if he flips town since we'd be back at square 1?
that was originally what i was trying to avoid lol
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Post Post #1440 (isolation #162) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:17 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

why do you think im scum?
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Post Post #1445 (isolation #163) » Tue Jan 30, 2024 8:50 pm

Post by fireisredsir »

i would like to not be hammered actually yet thanks

Spoiler: quotes
In post 1027, implosion wrote:
In post 957, gob wrote: Implo can you post a reads list perchance?
Within the coalition, Dragon > Klick > fire >> Appearance >> Dunn. I think Klick's engagement going down is a little bit of a knock against him but not enough to want to re-evaluate at all. I like fire's posting and gamestate interaction and it feels viscerally like how I remember his towngame feeling. I think the order of the top 3 could change if you ask me at a different time of day though.

I think App+Dunn is a very viable scumteam, I haven't thought too closely outside of the coalition today but I thought Elements was quite town and still think you're town though I also sympathize with people who say they have no idea how to distinguish you throwing reads out there as town vs as scum. I think the trajectory you've gone on today would be really weird as scum though. Then DV (who I've kind of forgotten about some but don't really care to think about his alignment deeply until we find scum on coalition) then T3 (who can like always just be scum here but I think is less likely to be scum than having 2 on coalition)
In post 1096, implosion wrote: I think both fire and T3's interpretations of the kill are reasonable at a glance. I'm not sure who Appearance would have shot though, DV or me is the obvious choice but it's possible it would have seemed too auspicious or off chance it's possible they're both scum and think they can keep me in the lim pool. But if Appearance is scum then it feels like there's basically no utility in shooting gob unless it's Appearance+Dragon which I doubt. It might just mean that fire is scum though I don't think fire as scum would be specifically afraid of gob.

I think there's a good chance that different scum players in this setup would view shooting on-coalition differently, which makes NK spec somewhat tricky. It's possible that some scum players in this setup would just avoid shooting on coalition no matter what. I think if I were scum in this setup in general I'd be fairly loath to shoot on coalition. It's possible DV is scum thinking along those lines but I think if DV were scum maybe he would have just shot Dragon anyway. And also we're still limming on coalition anyway and gob dying does not preclude there being 2 scum on coalition as a possibility. It might even be an indicator that way that scum need to find more people to shoot off coalition.

This is all very waffly and I think the conclusion is that I need to try again to actually directly read Appearance's play.
In post 1142, implosion wrote: I would like to hear from Appearance what his current read on the scum in coalition is given the flip, and if he has any strong views on partnerships or generally what angle he's viewing solving the game from at this point.
In post 1363, implosion wrote: I've caught up.
In post 1357, Klick wrote: I'm a bit tired of thinking about DragonEater's alignment in this game in general. Because there's a lack of clarity as to his perceived and actual scum range, and I haven't a clue what a DragonEater scum game would actually look like if he drew red here. Contrast that with feeling like I know what a fire scum game would look like - very similar to a town one, and what we're seeing currently. This description encapsulates why I am uncertain here.
I feel sort of rotationally similar to this, in that I think I'm being convinced that I have a pretty murky picture of what a DragonEater scum game would look like but I think I do know what his town game would look like if he had drawn green here and it's pretty much this picture. I am remembering that fire is a player I have historically figured that I probably just can't read well at all. I feel like fire's reasons for "this could be Dragon's scum game" in are in essence compelling reasons for exactly that, that the way Dragon played around the coalition is not a reason to locktown Dragon because it can come from Dragon-scum. But "this thing people are locktowning Dragon for could come from Dragon as scum" is not strictly a reason to scumread Dragon, and it's not even necessarily an argument that that thing Dragon did isn't on net more likely to come from him as town than as scum. I feel like the wholistic read of Dragon's ISO at this point just makes it hard for me to believe that it's not his town game, and it's possible that
i
am town tunneling him but things like him calling T3 scum for taking 4 minutes to read a post and his (I agree with fire here) very uninspiring logic in are, I think, also evidence of him being town because I just don't understand what reasons he has to post those things as scum. The former just alienates T3 if T3 is town and looks really weird and attention-draw-y if they're scum together, the latter is the kind of thing that I feel is very easy to post when you have the brazenness of actually being town and very hard to decide to post when you're in this public 1v1 as scum and you're trying to play the crowd or whatever. Bad logic is probably pretty correlated with being town, in practice, because town is on average less self-critical about what they're posting.

Basically I think I haven't seen any good reason why Dragon wouldn't have made any of the posts he's made as town.

I think fire is the best lim. I ideally would like to get some life out of Appearance before day end but I know he's V/LA.
In post 1397, implosion wrote:
In post 1396, DragonEater70 wrote: implosion who do you plan to vote rn?
In post 1363, implosion wrote:I think fire is the best lim.
I think fire/t3 is perfectly viable but also I don't think someone "needs" to have a viable partner to be a good lim, I think in a world where there are 5 people who could theoretically be a partner, even if there were good reasons to discount all 5 of them, the summation of those 5 reasons would not amount to a good reason to not lim the person, especially since a coalition game gives scum plenty of opportunities to potentially make plays that rule out their partnership.

I'm mostly not voting right now because I still would like more from Appearance ideally but I'm not opposed to ending the day for the sake of moving things forward if people are feeling like they want a flip.
In post 1444, implosion wrote:
In post 1398, DragonEater70 wrote: I don't think you are gonna get more from Appearance tbh
yeah, so it seems.

Dragon, is there anything else you care about today before I hammer?


implo i would like to hear more about your thought progression on appearance

it seems like you originally suspected him, then thought maybe he was unlikely to kill gob but said it was waffly and that you had to read his play, then a couple posts waiting for him to post more, and that's kinda all you've said

it feels like when the rest of us took him off the table you did so as well but i don't see where your actual read changed to motivate that

most of your posting this phase was about affirming your townread on dragon which feels very reactive to the current gamestate of the me/dragon/klick mess rather than looking into what was previously your top scumread
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Post Post #1460 (isolation #164) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:27 am

Post by fireisredsir »

not much, i still don't have a confident scumread and i think i still will probably be limmed here bc i don't really want to go for appearance, but i felt like there was more to talk about still and it seemed weird to be pushing to cut the day off
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #165) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:54 am

Post by fireisredsir »

what especially bothered me was the timing of it

i think that if dragon is actually town, the last few pages were where it felt like we may have started to find each other a little bit

and i think in that world where me/dragon is a TvT, scum would probably want to shut down any second guessing from happening and ensure that one of us gets elimmed
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Post Post #1464 (isolation #166) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:27 am

Post by fireisredsir »

why do you think scum would be on dragon specifically?
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Post Post #1470 (isolation #167) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:55 am

Post by fireisredsir »

ok thank you i guess

logically your points do make sense but it's a little frustrating as an approach for multiple reasons
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Post Post #1475 (isolation #168) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:23 am

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In post 1472, DragonEater70 wrote: Like I guess it does raise implo's scum equity slightly but I am not interested in voting off coalition today.

Anyway fire and Klick I would like to know what are your thoughts on the three of us being T/T/T, because I am very doubtful of this proposition on onw hand, but do feel like TRing both of you individually on the other hand.
i feel pretty similar

it seems quite unlikely to me based on the general shape of the game but i also don't know who it would be but it also feels like it is way too big of a risk to let it go unresolved

i wish i hadn't second guessed on ydra
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Post Post #1476 (isolation #169) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:25 am

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In post 1033, fireisredsir wrote: ok i am coming to the realization that i guess because there was the coalition forming and everything already, replacing in kind of felt like i was entering a game that was well into midgame and im kind of noticing that im mentally treating it that way

but actually this is still technically day 1 and still our first elimination and im probably overly stressing given that there's still a lot of time to sort things out

sorry i will try to reorient my brain to feel less like its the end of the world if we get this flip wrong and that also everyone else should be feeling that way too. im projecting too much
i think this was probably a mistake and my gut was right that i shouldn't be taking a step back there
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Post Post #1477 (isolation #170) » Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:31 am

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In post 1058, Klick wrote: VOTE: Dunnstral
In post 1060, DeasVail wrote: I will change my vote to Dunnstral if required
In post 1062, DeasVail wrote: Eh I’ll just do it now.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Dunnstral
this was probably the pivotal point
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Post Post #1480 (isolation #171) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 5:59 am

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ill try to think about this more tonight
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Post Post #1481 (isolation #172) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:08 am

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idk im kind of at the point of the game where i just want someone to tell me what to do

but i don't feel confident in like anyone being town anymore and im pretty sure anyone who would give direction would just want to lim me

which is like also fine i guess

but i feel a lot worse about dying and leaving y'all with a "shrug idk figure it out" than with actual reads so i should probably try to find those

it's just that every option i consider gives me dread
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Post Post #1484 (isolation #173) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:00 am

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if you're town then you're just trying to solve, and if you're scum then you played well

i don't think there's any reason anyone should feel bad about limming me here, it's fine, i get it. it's a hard game and i don't have the answer either
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Post Post #1485 (isolation #174) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:01 am

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i love coalition though it's one of my favorite setups
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Post Post #1486 (isolation #175) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:07 am

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it feels like every choice has a lot of weight to it, there's a good amount of naturally generated info that everyone has access to, and it also always feels like the answer is right there waiting for you if you just search for it hard enough

plus the fact that you basically are deepwolf hunting first since if your coalition fails you basically guaranteed have scum in the consensus townreads, makes it feel really unique and challenging

the uncertainty can def be stressful tho. i would really enjoy playing scum in it someday
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Post Post #1488 (isolation #176) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:26 am

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Spoiler:
you shouldn't tr that lol i added it on purpose bc i thought it would be funny
Spoiler:
i am town tho
Spoiler:
you can tr that one if you want


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Post Post #1489 (isolation #177) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 10:07 am

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we have 20 hours just a heads up
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Post Post #1495 (isolation #178) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 10:43 am

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i can in a bit
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Post Post #1497 (isolation #179) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 10:48 am

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why couldn't it look inevitable because scum are pushing it?
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Post Post #1499 (isolation #180) » Thu Feb 01, 2024 12:12 pm

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i feel like i should though just for the sake of getting something useful out of this day phase

like idk i think tomorrow y'all are just going to be where i am right now and that is without a clear answer
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Post Post #1595 (isolation #181) » Sat Feb 17, 2024 9:56 am

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yay, great job to implosion for carrying things across the finish line!!

also shoutout to kyouko for clawing her way into the coalition at the last minute while still managing to leave me enough room to survive a little. i think both players played the end of coalition phase really well to instill doubt that scum was okay with the status quo, it's a very tricky balance to pull off

really well played to town though as a whole, i was hoping to get two elims before i died and y'all made things a lot trickier for us by just not letting that happen. i think i could have played things better especially at the end of day 1, but im glad we won in the end

and many thanks to prism for being a lovely mod as always and writing such fun flavor. end scene was excellent

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