Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)
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watIn post 1955, Creature wrote:ruru has claimed a guilty on me.-
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Hot take: vca tells me one or two of scum are in vex/skitter/enigma
Postcounts tell me skitter/ruru/the worst/vex are town
This is a cheap read but I want my slot to be readable and for this game to be playable as fast as possible
VOTE: enigma
hypo-claim no result (either roleblocked or checked A50)-
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that's a pretty weak towncase on enigma:
-I'd say "his vote on A50 is useless" could easily be said by a scum partner
-Just because it's not scummy of enigma to do the things laid out in 1157 doesn't mean it's towny of him
I don't think the worst should be given lynch immunity 4ever for getting the scum slot lynched, but I see no reason to assume bussing is what happened. Town got a red slot flipped d1, so I'm going to assume for this game day that most high-functioning high-posting players are town in comparison to the rest of the playerlist, because a tw/skitter or ruru/vex team (or whatever combo you like) could probably have had any lynch they wanted
pedit: well skitter might just be wrong, & I'd argue sheeping me is the most interesting play you could make in what seems to be a dead gamestate @buj
also true re:tw's activity but read the above-
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also I skimmed and saw a couple towny posts from tw
you want me to vote Alonzo? case him
Not sure why you're bringing up the fact HWS was absent during scum lynch
Do you just not want me to pay attention to the slot
Oh wait no it's Alonzo??
Why is that scum indicative for the slot? didn't he replace out at that point? seems nai-
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who plays scum self-sacrificially what
I'll need more than gut on enigma to townread him
Or at least I'll need enigma to come make my gut feel it too
fair point re:HWS but I think that if he was scum that makes it more likely the other scum tries to hop on the wagon, knowing that if they don't it'll be a pure wagon. Either way I think a scum on the wagon is likely, and that if I'm right on that it's either enigma or someone widely townread like vex or skitter
Leaning the former because of the fact that town functioned well enough to hit scum
What was the case on the red slot? Lurkiness? Or like a real case someone put forward?-
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Oh sadIn post 1976, skitter30 wrote:i mean i'm still mildly townreading enigma and you're the person i want lynched soooo (literally the only reason why i'm not voting you right now is that the slot was empty for like a week)-
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In post 898, the worst wrote:just gonna set the record straight.
your read on me here feels really over keen as hell.
those posts are me being me and just because you caught me as scum once in a doomed slot that doesn't have any bearing on my alignment (and nor does it mean I'm a free lynch for you to pull out of your hat wheneverthefuck)
currently slightly more likely a bad taken from town!you than a bad setup from scum!you but either way it's bad and I'm not sure how to feel about that yet
having said that you do have experience misreading town!me so it's probably earnestIn post 943, the worst wrote:
scumslip much?In post 940, ruru wrote:this game feels like a loss.
town is gonna wreck this shitIn post 1064, the worst wrote:@Creature mostly, Gamma slightly
sorry but with 48 hours to go I really am not gonna obvtown hard enough to get you all to settle down. all I can do is ask for a reevaluation d2.
I'm more or less fine with this game/list I'm just not warmed up and don't have that urgent energy yet.
lynch someone who's actually gonna flip red. or if I'm designated d1/n1 death lmk and I'll stop putting effort in.In post 1391, the worst wrote:{tw, larvitar}
{ }
{a50, vex}
{skitter30, ruru, Buj, Gamma, ejji}
== null == {hot water service}
{NM, Enigma}
tragicIn post 1495, the worst wrote:anyway
not towncasing my pred. it's a waste of valuable meta when the outcome is predetermined to me. you'll all get over it
ruru more likely town for overbtinkjng it that far. I'm prolly overthinking herIn post 1499, the worst wrote:I'm at least gonna go down voting the mechanically correct slot. I want post-game bragging rights if there's no vig or this is traitor.
VOTE: NMIn post 1516, the worst wrote:didn't say it was a tell. I just feel like a few of you are too used to seeing me as scum to sort me without me energetically powertowning which I don't have the enthusiasm to do.In post 1598, the worst wrote:
ok so you literally witnessed what happened the last time I tried to bus so please tell me you actually think IIn post 1587, ruru wrote:I think tw's play has been results-oriented in a tmi way: he expects to deliver us a redflip and then not die as a result, without really scumhunting or doing anything else towny
*clears throat*
> rep'd into a scumslot
> decided to expose scum!cjv for towncred (?) when he'd just been dropped into his usual "too hard to read" bin
> cjv then spewed antiassociatives and then flaked from the game because.....?? he didn't like my bus strategy? waht
> I suddenly got really really good at bussing and changed my bussing ethos dramatically
like this conclusion is so vague and has nearly no thought behind it. I'd feel better if you jumped into the thread with a fucking fake guilty. seriously. stop tunnelling me and pay attention to the fact cjv and I were obviously not scum together.
actually fuck it this could be scum. will revisit later
hypo inno BujaberIn post 1616, the worst wrote:"being lazy town" is kind of a vague spectrum
are you looking for a game where I've had a hard time getting / staying engaged? I think it's more of a trending issue for me because I'm getting fairly bored of the game in a general sense
the more I'm thinking about it the more I'm liking this angle on my slot from you, I think I was just irritated by the conclusions being drawn too quickly fyi
one question tho: where is your awareness of your history of misreading me?In post 1679, the worst wrote:I still kinda think I want enigma.
I'm townreading everything above this line -----In post 1710, the worst wrote:and yeah my playstyle is rarely consistent which I think is why some people find reading me to be a pain in the ass
this sounds a little scum gloat-yIn post 1883, the worst wrote:Occum's razor would put scum in {you, hws} from the a50 flip but it's stupid as shit. he was just a good kill--he was not going to let the mislynch on me go through, had fast-moving reads and was set to reevaluate after d1 so
just a generally solid kill I think
How did you know I was comingIn post 1889, the worst wrote:In post 1487, the worst wrote:
I actually felt the exact opposite there.In post 1445, ruru wrote:like if you think the gamestate is losing, but you're too low energy to care, then you still shouldn't be scumreading me for having thought the gamestate was losing
for a moment things were starting to make sense but now they're wonky again. idk I'm probably overthinking stuff.In post 1488, the worst wrote:probably need a Fancy Post for this, we can go into it later or whatever
In post 1491, the worst wrote:In post 1463, ruru wrote:hws isn't here...
oh my bad this is actually a wrecking ball of common senseIn post 1464, ruru wrote:also the strength of my hws scumread is less than the strength of your ceejay scumread so probably we should just lynch nmIn post 1492, the worst wrote:
it does if someone is starting to kinda realising on a subconscious level that this isn't scum!ducky and you're twisting their arm back into lynching me.In post 1475, ruru wrote:that's personal bias and has nothing to do with winning the game
the main reason I'm netting skitter above the null line rn is the actual parallels she's drawing between me and other games. I think she's actually thought about this. she's just wrong and a part of me is pretty sure she realises to some degree that she's wrong.
you also clearly don't know Skyg's scum meta lmaoIn post 1495, the worst wrote:anyway
not towncasing my pred. it's a waste of valuable meta when the outcome is predetermined to me. you'll all get over it
ruru more likely town for overbtinkjng it that far. I'm prolly overthinking her
somewhere around here I started liking her but it's slightly intangible. I just think there'sIn post 1498, the worst wrote:
not before I'm lynchedIn post 1496, ruru wrote:
fancy post when?In post 1488, the worst wrote:probably need a Fancy Post for this, we can go into it later or whatever
I'm actually v/la over the weekend but won't qnnounce it because you fucks are mislynching me anyway
Just look for who should have known better and adjust reads accordingly lolan elephantof over thought nuance that comes from town!ruru long before scum!ruru
heyIn post 1948, the worst wrote:I mean welcome Rel
hey wait
this was rude!
rude.-
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Welp I 100% meant to spoiler all of that, sorry everyone.
I guess I see your point @ruru about tw maybe choosing to push his scumbuddy for his own survival
I just think Occam's razor is that, until there's a surprising flip somewhere along the line, it just makes sense to assume the player pushing scum was town, especially given the wagon died and revived-
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We do?In post 1745, BuJaber wrote:
And that makes sense to you?In post 1743, skitter30 wrote:the people i townread are: vex, ruru, enigma, creature
the people i don't are: buj, alonzo, tw, ge, ejji
and three of them are on that wagon
We know there's a traitor and a groupscum left alive.
You have to ask yourself if both could be on gamma in only 4 votes or if one of them is bussing the other (gamma) in only 4 votes.
If the answer is no to both of those then ejj should either be confirmed scum to you or you know for a fact you are townreading scum.
posting this so I can check the votecount when this was posted for contextIn post 1831, BuJaber wrote:
That is more indicative of there being a wagon on scum right now.In post 1827, ruru wrote:I'm fairly confident we've had a wagon on at least one scum today and the fact that the game is just stalling seems to point to scum not wanting to bus
If everyone, town and scum alike, are posting very little scum cannot bus and risk a quick hammer from the absent townies. They cannot aggressively push the counterwagon because as soon as a mislynch occurs the other player would be a prime suspect.
I think I townread BuJslot so now I'm a little lost-
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okay so maybe it's just gammaIn post 1823, ofrhz wrote:
I'll go look into him I guess-
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Would it help town a ton to know my alignment
this game is confusing me so maybe I'm the best course of action
I mean not really but
there's a lot to read here and scum is not obvious (unless it's enigma, in which case, called it)
Anyway I g2g for now maybe now that all slots are filled this game will sort itself out
pedit: huh...
I'll ruminate on what it means that tw is sheeping me later, I guess?
bye!-
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But why do you assume scum didn't recruit traitor?In post 2027, BuJaber wrote:Traitor + groupscum left because cjv flipped goon.-
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the worst you said you're not sheeping me? So why are you voting himIn post 1198, BuJaber wrote:@vex - in the bolded I was saying that your setup spec was premature imo and might lead us to false assumptions by doing without having any additional info via claims/flips. The only thing we know now that we didn't know before the game started is that creature is IC and therefore scum didn't pick 0 powers, they picked at least 1.
In this game the setup spec might not hurt town so much, but it doesn't help town either because it's hypothetical and might encourage some people to jump to early conclusions that end up being false. But there was one good thing that came out of it which is that you became widely townread.-
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guys why are we punishing tw for flipping scum in our reads?
Like if we flip green once or twice and we're confused then we should probably challenge our assumptions,,,
But until then anyone who's pushing tw for TMI-ing the lynch is also just punishing good town play if he's town (which RNG says he is likely to be)
Like one time tw survived till near endgame as SK by actually shooting most of the scumteam
If he's scum and wants his own team dead let's sheep him, not kill him
anyway
I'm still not totally caught up but I don't understand tw scumreads rn-
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K so I've finished reading EOD1-EarlyD2 and I'm at somewhere like
{Creature, me}
{skitter30, the worst}
{BuJaber, ruru}
{Alonzo, Vex/Kor} - null
{Enigma, Gamma}
{Not yet able to form super hard scumreads but I'm trying}
Can someone make a case for why I should have a [insert your read here] on Korina? Really struggling to see much beyond like the number of posts and some early messy setup spec
Maybe I just haven't found the parts of the thread where he really TOWNED IT UP but, please show me
pedit: sure, I don't actually think he's going to double bus two days in a row, that was more of a "Don't lynch till you've BoP'd" (semi-joking) argument
It's more like I don't think he's an optimal lynch d1 when he was so clearly a big reason why someone flipped red d2
Nobody seems to be considering that tw might just have good reads - you yourself admit the slot was doomed, so why is it TMI for tw to scumread the slot?-
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ftr this does not mean I've read all of D1In post 2115, Irrelephant11 wrote:K so I've finished reading EOD1-EarlyD2 and I'm at somewhere like-
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Too Much Information - seems like people are thinking tw is scum partially because he was TOO confident in a red NM flip, i.e. only scum can have such confidenceIn post 1198, BuJaber wrote:@vex - in the bolded I was saying that your setup spec was premature imo and might lead us to false assumptions by doing without having any additional info via claims/flips. The only thing we know now that we didn't know before the game started is that creature is IC and therefore scum didn't pick 0 powers, they picked at least 1.
In this game the setup spec might not hurt town so much, but it doesn't help town either because it's hypothetical and might encourage some people to jump to early conclusions that end up being false. But there was one good thing that came out of it which is that you became widely townread.
Sometimes players with good reads are read as having TMI and therefore being scum, when actually they're just good reads-
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what's the questionIn post 2126, ruru wrote:enigma is a questionable lynch
Also your reasons for wanting to keep Gamma over BuJaber are weak imo-
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mmkay your reasons for not wanting enigma lynched are a little stronger than your reasons for not wanting gamma lynched
Not to be rude but I think your nsg thing sounds weak because it is actually just too weak to use here
At least if you want anyone to agree with you...
pedit: I don't understand your request re:enigma
ppedit: oh hey korina's back
pppedit: mm interesting-
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wait wow let's talk more about thisIn post 1559, ofrhz wrote:
@anyone thinking scum didn't bus
NM flipped and then so did A50
That means you think scum:
A] were both voting Gamma Emerald
or
B] were Gamma Emerald and one of the people voting Gamma Emerald (meaning only two votes at EOD were not on scum)
So scum like almost definitely bussed? Which is already the conclusion to make when they shoot off wagon...
Which I guess makes my argument that tw didn't bus sound dumber
Maybe it is dumber
I still think he's a suboptimal lynch for riding the slot across two wagons and all the way to lynch
But since yeah, scum almost definitely bussed, my argument for it being one of enigma/skitter/ruru/vex makes sense again
I still think enigma is the most likely, but I've kind of been operating on "this looks enough like townskitter" without going in depth there
ditto ruru, though I don't know ruru's meta much at all (just sheeping it)
Like @world what do you think about this eod vc? Gamma looks sorta towny for it-
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I mean I'm almost always wrong on youIn post 1630, Enigma wrote:Hihi all, I'm travelling most of next week, so posting will be sporadic.
Hypo-inno skitter.
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Looking at A50s posts he was TRing duck, and was convinced CJ was scum. His scum pool was Frank (ejji) + CJV (NM) + HWS (Alonzo). Potentially his reads placed him as a threat. On the other hand, maybe nothing in it as now skitter mentioned it, he could have been seen as softing PR.
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Ejji end of day post was bad. I mean I can't understand his reasoning for his NM vote, apart from the wagon being "pure"?
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This, combined with A50's read list, combined with A50 flipping green, combined with HWS' completely neutral play - puts the slot in a bad start for me. Will revaluate after more posts from Alonzo, but first impressions a rather mehIn post 1595, Alonzo wrote:I'm town, I was gonna deathtunnel A50 today, so I need to re read and come up with a plan B
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No idea about duck meta, so won't partake in that discussion. Plus I'm pretty meh towards meta.
This felt a bit :/ Considering sky's play also and the slot's ISO (comments on vig/bp), could kinda be felt like trying to mock a vig and being vig bait (i.e. scum/traitor).In post 1554, the worst wrote:if a vig exists I just trust the vig not to be stupid. if I could hammer I would :p
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Presenting today's scum pool of {HWS/Alonzo, ejji and duck}
TR on {ruru, vex, creature}
Null on others
So really I'm just letting you live as scum to make up for mislynching you as town-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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yeah if it's based on preds whatever
I can't really argue and from a cursory glance I don't love their play either (thought arguably it's stronger play than Alonzo's so far)
Look again at the D1 EOD vc. If Gamma was scum, all but three votes were on scum - and 2/3 of those votes were the two people being wagoned -- and the third was the nightkill! It just seemed really really unlikely and I'm bothered by how ruru discredited my point there-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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If you think that linked game is somehow similar to what I am talking about you will have to show me, step by step, how it's similar at all.In post 2267, ruru wrote:
you'll need to explain this without "look at this it's so unlikely" (tw and jjh were scum in this game) unless you have statistics to suggest it is actually any less likely than the other options or statistics to suggest that I should just sheep your reads without question in generalIn post 2262, Irrelephant11 wrote:Look again at the D1 EOD vc. If Gamma was scum, all but three votes were on scum - and 2/3 of those votes were the two people being wagoned -- and the third was the nightkill! It just seemed really really unlikely and I'm bothered by how ruru discredited my point there
My point here is that A50 would have to be the ONLY townie not voting scum at EOD1 if Gamma were scum (and then be the nightkill!!). That just. isn't. likely. It's obvious why - and the point bears out, Gamma flipped town. I'm not even asking for towncred here, I'm just expressing annoyance and you're telling me I'm wrong -No I'm not, he flipped town!
which part of this story is funnyIn post 2268, ruru wrote:so, funny story, when I started a super random push on gamma which I phrased in the most honest and non-rhetorical manner possible, I expected him to fight it if he was town
I wasn't sure if he was actually the lynch
then he just kind of blew it off and went to go post in other games
this is a seriously crappy and scummy response to getting the lynch you wanted and having it flip green
"Well, it was his fault, not mine" is not a towny response. town says something like "huh wonder what other reads I've got wrong" or "I guess that flip means ___ is maybe scum"
Here you're answering the "why did ruru push a townie's lynch" pre-emptively, no one had asked it
it might just be I'm annoyed with you here but I'm seriously scumreading your entrance to this day
I've also thought since ISOing her that ruru could maybe actually be traitor
Wow this is freaking rude and ignores how I've ISO'd most players and read most of the gameIn post 2269, ruru wrote:
zzzIn post 2139, Irrelephant11 wrote:Not to be rude but I think your nsg thing sounds weak because it is actually just too weak to use here
At least if you want anyone to agree with you...
no more criticizing the gamma lynch please and if you wanted enigma to happen you should've read the game first.
Like I did a crap ton of work for replacing in ~pg 70, somewhat close to deadline, and you're basically saying "Your read wasn't better than mine because you did the work or had good arguments," [sidenote: Isuperdid both of these things] "it was just random, and also it's your fault he was lynched because you weren't around during sitewide v/la"
Is your goal here to antagonize me????
I'm so mad rn
Play like what? How does town have to play to deserve your being okay with lynching them? Because Gamma wasn't even that scummy!In post 2270, ruru wrote:I'm okay with lynching town in a setup with nightkills if they're going to play like thatand it's higher ev than lynching someone who's slightly more likely to be scum, but won't fight their lynch as town, and that's just the reality of the nightkill being an overpowered ability
I am experiencing angerrrrrrrrrrr and I don't like it-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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and this from you also isn't how town treats a scumread eitherIn post 2272, Irrelephant11 wrote:you're basically saying "Your read wasn't better than mine because you did the work or had good arguments," [sidenote: I super did both of these things] "it was just random, and also it's your fault he was lynched because you weren't around during sitewide v/la"
I forget what your read on my slot is but if you think I'm town you're putting too much into making me feel bad/discrediting me-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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Who's frank?In post 2265, Alonzo wrote:Irrelaphant what do you think about how Frank got on here? Timid town? If so who leant on him the hardest do you think?
oh me
what's your question here?-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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I have neither, except to say that I have never once seen a town so coordinated as to have 9/10 town voting scum d1
Given mafia is also a game of lying and manipulation and division, it seems obvious why this would be so incredibly rare (if it's ever happened at all)
You seem to feel the worst is likely scum, too, and if he were scum with Gamma, 11/13 votes would have been on scum at EOD1.
Like why isn't this obvious? @anyone other than ruru, am I being dumb or is it just true that I made a good point and ruru is refusing to accept that?
The fact you are being obstinate on this point makes me wonder about your alignment - in fact, mafia being "a game of randomness and incomplete information" is exactly why it should have been clear by looking at that votecount that town was never going to be so incredibly accurate as to be almost exclusively voting two scum in NM/GE.
And that's all without even mentioning that scum would have to be idiotic/very strange to vote A50 in the situation where Gamma was scum, which you've mostly glossed over with "provide statistics and read every post of the game or I don't need to listen to you"
pedit: Well regardless of your alignment, yes, I am-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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You're dodging my question. A not-influential scumteam does not mean that town will have accurate reads. Town must function at a high rate to consolidate their votes onto scum well.
Do you feel it would be reasonable to assume that 9/10 town votes in this game were on scum d1? (ignoring the knowledge we now have that such an assumption would be wrong in this case)-
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Irrelephant11 HeJack of All TradesHe
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