Mini Normal 2157 | Over

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, it’s 2am where I’m at, and I have work tomorrow. I have been thinking a lot about this game lately so I’ll come back early in the morning. Hopefully by then VPB has stated their result.

[Andresvmb]

@VPB how have you yet to claim your positive result? I presume it’s not Datisi, so your excuse is out the window.

[Andresvmb]

I have some conclusions from re-reading the first 75 pages of the game. But I want to see VPB’s result first.

And no, I’m not TMI’ing anything. Same as Testarossa, I came to the solid conclusion that Bob was correct, and that Billy was certain Town. So I was just going to sheep that read.

[Andresvmb]

Also, I was openly SR’ing Billy (you can find it in my ISO I’m sure, because I did say that Bob + Billy were in my Scum Pool). I wouldn’t have done that if I were Scum and had figured out who the Tracker was.

[Andresvmb]

No I mean, I correctly figured out that you guys were Masons because I re-read the game and thought Billy was Town (and consistent, logical, and mostly correct), and so I didn’t think he would have screwed up not jumping at you if you put as Tracker and you are not coordinated.

[Andresvmb]

Out*

[Andresvmb]

So from my catch up, I had a soft SR there. Here is what I wrote in my notes:

It looks to me that Hellbooks decided to pile onto the Snowblaze (later Bob) wagon D1 because Snowblaze kept insisting that there was nothing Towny about her. In hindsight, not a great look. Also, practically every single one of her reads has pointed in the wrong direction (1629, 1634, 1644, 1660, 1676). Not that my reads have been all that great either, but worth pointing out. However, Bob also stated that Hellbooks is likely Town if Billy is Town. So it’s a weaker SR.

[Andresvmb]

Also, I will say, I have this on NPOM:
NPOM has been consistently agreeing with the Townier players in the game, and taken shit for it. For that, I think NPOM is maybe Town, and I should have trusted Datisi’s initial read there. The hammer yesterday though WAS AWFUL. That much I will say. If the conversation was shifting against Alduskkel, the fact that the day was ended early is not great. But I have consistently felt that this slot is mis-execution bait, and until some other slots are flipped, NPOM does not, in my opinion, make sense.

[Andresvmb]

How in the world is this a game with 3 Masons? What?

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: Aludskkel

Time to sheep Bob.

[Andresvmb]

Also, now I know why certain people appear coordinated to the untrained eye. You all should NOT be surprised that someone like me felt the game was broken in two, and that some of you made a lot of sense as Scum together, when there’s a Masonry with three players in it.

[Andresvmb]

No, a mass claim first would have been a mistake, because VPB was a 50/50 to me. Either he’s Town PT Cop, or he’s Scum and they have a Role Cop, and simply guessed correctly that it would be a good defense for the Tracker. That’s out the window now, because the odds that VPB correctly calls out a third Mason are like 0.

[Andresvmb]

The Scum Team should then be {Alduskkel, DkKoba, NPOM}, and NPOM and DkKoba have been engaged in Scum Theater this whole time. Good job guys.

[Andresvmb]

Also, I find it incredible that I signed up to a normal game, and the Mod decided that a 3 person Masonry was just standard. That’s lovely.

[Andresvmb]

umm, why am I being scumread again?

See Bob.

[Andresvmb]

Also, Bob’s initial POE was hot garbage. It just so happens that mine was too.

[Andresvmb]

I’m not complaining about the number of PRs. But three players that know each other are Town, I had yet to see that in a game.

[Andresvmb]

No I’m not arguing AT ALL that I think it’s BS.

[Andresvmb]

I had Datisi, Testarossa, Billy and Iconeum as hard Towns coming into today. With Hellbooks now Confirmed Town (Datisi is Confirmed, so Hellbooks is too), and VPB off the table (and practically Confirmed, but will resolve itself anyway), my pool of players is, well, tiny.

[Andresvmb]

This is what I had on DkKoba prior to all of this coming out:
DkKoba has been responsible for a lot of bad pushes (which sadly have happened with my help), so I am rescinding my read there. DkKoba’s chaotic posting style makes it much harder to read them, and their aggressiveness/outspokenness made me think they had to be Town, but the Town bodies have done nothing but pile up. In fact, I should probably pay close attention to what I wrote on 1491. In any case, Testarossa made the point that some of their voting moves have been somewhat unnecessary for Scum, so there is some apprehension behind my SR here, but I feel like I need to put it out there. It doesn’t help that I now disagree with most everything on 1680. I am also of the opinion that only one of DkKoba/NPOM is Scum at maximum, given how they have gone after each other almost all game.

[Andresvmb]

@Testarossa, in 1855 you wrote that you think DkKoba is trigger happy Town. Do you maintain that?

[Andresvmb]

And Testarossa is Town because the same wagon that resulted in Bob almost executes D1 did the same to Testarossa. Odds are, both were Scum motivated.

[Andresvmb]

^Almost executed*

[Andresvmb]

@Ico Testarossa is practically guaranteed Town, should never be in any POE.

How is this again?

Also curious about what your thoughts were when I said I had a positive result? You were asking me for my results, but then kind of ignored me when I said it. Were you expecting the PT result on hellbrooks?

Hellbooks as a check makes a lot of sense. If I had been a PT Cop, I probably check there too. So I was expecting you to either come out and say that you had checked Datisi (since you had revealed a positive, which would have made you Scum in my eyes), or come out with an actual positive (Town).

[Andresvmb]

Also, NPOM’s hammer yesterday was Scummy as all shit. I hate that I kept finding reasons to TR the slot.

[Andresvmb]

Billy had NPOM as Scum, and Bob had Alduskkel as Scum. We really should start here.

[Andresvmb]

testa

open hand/shotgun reads

who's the scumteam/PoE for you right now?

Aldus, hellbooks, Andres/Koba.

NPOM is atm more of a wild card to me, need to reread his interactions with those above. Tbh was originally having Baltar in this poe, was not expecting him with coming in with a positive result.

I mean, this is exactly what I expected from Testarossa’s perspective (as Town), and is literally what I was going to push coming into today (outside of my own self of course).

Hopefully you guys can read me correctly here, because if I make us lose I’ll actually be sad. And how do you lose a game with 3 Masons? That’s got to be awful.

Also, if we have Hellbooks as Town, then you can probably tell that Hellbooks/NPOM is not TvT from these interactions: 793, 795, 1634.

[Andresvmb]

@Aduskkel is always Scum from my perspective so you guys need to figure out what you want to do.

[Andresvmb]

Also, the case against DkKoba is stronger by his reaction at the start of this Day. None of that reads planned to you all? Billy flips as the Tracker, and you think the Scum hadn’t concocted a plan to use that to try and get Datisi too?

[Andresvmb]

It’s called process of elimination. Bob figured out a lot of the Town (and I’m actually not so disappointed that we had a lot of overlapping reads even if we couldn’t agree), and the Mason claims have all but confirmed Bob’s broad view of the game. I am simply going to trust my Testarossa TR, and go with the remaining slots as the Team.

[Andresvmb]

Also, if we have Hellbooks as Town, then you can probably tell that Hellbooks/NPOM is not TvT from these interactions: 793, 795, 1634.

Hasn't like everyone had a shouting match with NPOM at this point though? He's incredibly frustrating. How are you arriving at the conclusion it couldn't be TvT?

Yes, but Hellbooks and NPOM actually haven’t as far as I can remember. So these interactions are more genuine.

[Andresvmb]

Yo, how many times do I have to explain the same thing over and over? DkKoba did a tremendous job of making me doubt my early TR of Testarossa. I’m concluding that DkKoba is Scum, so Testa is Town. Testa, via wagon analysis, concluded Bob was Town and did not want to push that. Testa has the same POE as I do... all in all, Testa is very likely Town from where I sit.

[Andresvmb]

Also, 1529. Billy agrees. I’m not going against both Bob and Billy who are clearly good Town players.

[Andresvmb]

@Alduskkel Bob did not have nearly as much information as we do now, which only reinforces his read. I’m not all of a sudden going to trust your explanations for what Bob was seeing when he’s no longer here to push it further. I’m at strictly {Aduskkel, NPOM} for today. That’s it.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi Yes, I do. The Scum Team have probably figured out at this point that NPOM is going to flip this game. The amount of people that have either SR the slot or had a fight with NPOM make it very likely that you need posts distancing from NPOM.

I have a post much earlier than the one you’re quoting for Alduskkel where I state straight up that I’m highly confident that NPOM is Scum (directed at DkKoba, and I think I made it D1). I’m not trying to say I was distancing (I would have kept that up if we’re aligned), but just that the Scum knew that they needed to distance from NPOM. Billy was pushing NPOM hard D2. Do you really think it’s highly unlikely that Scum thought it would be prudent to distance?

[Andresvmb]

Ugh you know what I’m not all that inclined to put this much effort into a game if I am going to be accused of doing Scum theater. What kind of idiot do you think I am that I put myself in the tiniest box possible here. Alduskkel is still saying that there’s an outside chance that VPB is Scum. C’mon now.

[Andresvmb]

I’m not talking to you NPOM. That’s meant for Datisi.

[Andresvmb]

Andres wanted on dead the most. No was town. Let's elim Andres.

This is such a cop out.

[Andresvmb]

Do you really think it’s highly unlikely that Scum thought it would be prudent to distance?

ok but it's not *distancing*

it's "i don't like this *town wagon1*, i want *this town wagon2*, except i'm gonna do very little to stop wagon1 or push wagon2, then i'm gonna push wagon2 tomorrow after i get some Towncred"

Have you never seen Scum hard bus a Teammate?

[Andresvmb]

i don't think you're an idiot regardless your alignment

at this point almost everyone has had some sorta argument with npom, and the way yesterday was going, it seemed pretty likely npom is gonna be the next target today

however current wagons and flips (and considering hellbooks was regarded as a likely scum meaning the "collective" PoE is very wrong) i have a feeling scum has been running this show which makes me highly skeptical the ~designated~ wagon for today is on scum

I’m not voting for NPOM though! I’m on Alduskkel. I have a very strong feeling that Alduskkel is far better.

[Andresvmb]

Do you really think it’s highly unlikely that Scum thought it would be prudent to distance?

ok but it's not *distancing*

it's "i don't like this *town wagon1*, i want *this town wagon2*, except i'm gonna do very little to stop wagon1 or push wagon2, then i'm gonna push wagon2 tomorrow after i get some Towncred"

Have you never seen Scum hard bus a Teammate?

counterpoint: did that look lime *hard* bussing to you?

Scum don’t always just start yelling THIS PLAYER IS SCUM YEET HERE for Town cred. All I’m saying is that arguing that NPOM/Alduskkel is never SvS is wrong in my view because of what I’ve been pointing to. But again it’s just my view.

[Andresvmb]

I am not Scum Reading any of you differently. But Datisi is right that NPOM has been mis-execution bait (I’ve made this point numerous times now), so I’m trying to avoid making a horrible mistake and I’m sheeping a Confirmed Town that’s clearly on point and called out the Masons as Town.

[Andresvmb]

Yeah, perspective slip. Sure. I wasn’t “upset” btw. It seems to me like the setup is a bit funny. That’s all.

[Andresvmb]

And how am I engaging you in bad faith exactly?

[Andresvmb]

There’s like 4 choices for Scum from my POV, and I have one solid TR within that group. Why would I ever just listen to your defense when it’s all based on how you can spin another player’s push on you? Like what?

[Andresvmb]

I don’t need my Testa read to be rock solid to make a decision here. I’m at 3/4, and my strongest TR is Testa. There’s a lot of reasons to think DkKoba could be Scum here. It just isn’t circular logic at all.

So why don’t you tell us why Testa is Scum then?

[Andresvmb]

And even if Testa/DkKoba was the uncertainty btw, you and NPOM are still solidly Scum. We don’t have to make a decision between DkKoba and Testa here to get to a good solution.

You’re boxed into getting into this with me, so I respect that. But arguing that I am coming at you from a position of bad faith is just bad.

[Andresvmb]

Having hard stances clearly is not the way to figure out who is Town. Otherwise Janko would still be alive, and GeorgeBailey would be Scum instead of Town. And Snowblaze, who made the specific point that they don’t form strong reads D1, would have flipped Scum. How much more evidence do you need before you drop that way of figuring out Town?

[Andresvmb]

Or was it Hellbooks? It doesn’t matter, the point is the same.

[Andresvmb]

And if that’s the way that you infer who is Town and who is Scum, how do you ever conclude I’m Scum?

[Andresvmb]

Yeah but it’s bullshit. You’re saying I’m not engaging you in good faith. It’s a nonsense argument.

[Andresvmb]

I’ll put it this way - you’re ascribing Scum motivation to my push on your slot when I’m agreeing with a Confirmed Town player that’s flipped and had the game broadly right, and when we have near certainty that multiple players are Confirmed Town {Datisi, Hellbooks, VPB}, with one of those players having a strong TR of Ico.

[Andresvmb]

I say near certainty because VPB is not Confirmed Town, but nearly so.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi I’m inhabiting the universe where Scum did not pick up on the fact that you had a crumb that lead to Hellbooks as well. Or at least not one that VPB could have pulled with ease.

[Andresvmb]

But you are? At least we know they are coming at it from a genuine perspective. Why should we ignore it?

[Andresvmb]

Anyway I really have a lot of work today so I’ll be back much later tonight. I’ve made most of the points I wanted to make.

[Andresvmb]

i still dont understand why town would get 2 investigatives AND 3 towns confirmed to themselves AND a way for one of the investigatives to hide their claim behind a person who is not the PR themselves.

a PR that is part of a 3 man masonry??? thats just fucking strong!

THIS is why I had the reaction I had to the Claims. Not some dumb perspective slip. I have my doubts about DkKoba as I’ve already explained, but the points about game balance are absolutely correct. It seems ridiculous to me that Town would have a 3-Person Masonry with a Tracker, and a separate PT Cop who could then point out Scum or independently confirm members of a Masonry if they happened to stumble upon them. That’s 4 players that cannot be executed if their Claims ended up all panning out, which here they have. Now, the PT Cop is obviously an actual Role in the game. Now, VPB could theoretically still be Scum. They were forced to claim by a well placed Tracker, and it *could* be the case that VPB isn’t actually the PT Cop but was told the result of a check by the actual Scum PT Cop to help cover his ass (since they were found by the Tracker), which has now been flipped. The only way to sort this is by correctly TK’ing Scum here.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, Alduskkel is voting for me, and is strongly pushing for NPOM as a potential alternative by repeatedly suggesting it’s the slot to flip. One of Alduskkel/NPOM is almost always Scum here, it’s just a matter of getting it right.

[Andresvmb]

The way to counter a 3-way Masonry would be by giving the Scum a Role Cop and a PT Cop. Like, I can somewhat see that. And then, a lot of the arguments about why Bob had VPB as a hard Scum start making a lot of sense. Anyway, I also wrote down the following notes on VPB:
924, 952, 1179, 1265 from VPB are bad. Bob’s point in 1269 is reasonable. And 1318 might be why GB was NK’ed.

[Andresvmb]

That last one isn’t a point about VPB but George but anyway you get the point.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway I feel like I’m in tin foil hat territory. VPB is not much better than a 50/50, and the check on Hellbooks is perfectly sensible from my POV. However, I just got out of a game where a player was observed visiting a kill, and the Town made all kinds of excuses as to why that player was Town and they ended up being Scum. We should try and be absolutely certain that we’re not getting this clear wrong.

[Andresvmb]

Now I’ve put most of my notes on this game out there. That’s all I really have. Also, and this is a probabilistic argument - it is far more likely that a Scum PT Cop would correctly identify *two* Masons, than a Town PT Cop that was looking at the complete pool of players. Something to think about.

[Andresvmb]

I hate being this paranoid, and the other part of it is that I’m no expert in game balance. I am not the type of player that solves mechanically all that often, so that’s another thing. This is the type of argument I’m least comfortable making.

[Andresvmb]

Do you see where my vote is?

[Andresvmb]

Wait, please give us your perfect solve then @Aduskkel.

[Andresvmb]

If you take VPB for Town, the Team from my perspective is almost always {Alduskkel, DkKoba, NPOM}. If you accept that VPB is not perfectly cleared for a second, then the Team composition changes, and I’m not sure what I would say the three members are in that case. However, Alduskkel’s attempts at discrediting me seem to carry an agenda, so I am still very happy with my vote.

[Andresvmb]

Do you see where my vote is?

I do see where your vote is. That's not what I asked though.

If you had control of however many votes, would you yeet me today?

No. I would yeet exactly where my vote is. I could not in good conscience yeet your slot that very well might be a Town PR, and I’m just an idiot for doubting it.

[Andresvmb]

Maybe his agenda is finding scum.

And what do you think my agenda has been so far?

[Andresvmb]

Okay Andres is VPB "nearly confirmed town" or about "50/50"? You can't have it both ways.

I didn’t say it was a 50/50. I said it’s “no better” than a 50/50. But thanks for the misrepresentation there.

[Andresvmb]

Well your push on Bob looks bad.

Yeah because I was the ONLY player pushing Bob. Like how bad can you be? VPB was screaming that Snowblaze/Bob was Scum since D1.

[Andresvmb]

You were the hardest pusher of Bob.

This is false. D2 I might have been loud about it absolutely. But overall? No. Just re-read the damn game.

[Andresvmb]

andres now that im here u are suddenly ignoring me big think react!

I’m not ignoring you. I didn’t see anything specifically targeted at me.

I don’t know what you all want me to do. Unless somebody comes with a specific case on Testarossa, I don’t see any alternative to what I’m doing right now.

[Andresvmb]

Okay Andres is VPB "nearly confirmed town" or about "50/50"? You can't have it both ways.

I didn’t say it was a 50/50. I said it’s “no better” than a 50/50. But thanks for the misrepresentation there.

No, you said "not much better than 50/50":

VPB is not much better than a 50/50

That means it's close to 50/50. Being "not much better than 50/50" is way different from being "nearly confirmed town"!

And you still haven't answered why you said we need to "get it right" between me and NPOM if you think both of us are scum.

Because the more you bring up that NPOM should be the TK and not you, the less confident I am that you are both the Team. Which is what’s fueling my paranoia about VPB. I get why you’re also discrediting Testarossa for example. But that’s still half of the pool outside of the PR slots + Ico.

[Andresvmb]

You were the hardest pusher of Bob.

This is false. D2 I might have been loud about it absolutely. But overall? No. Just re-read the damn game.

Stop trying to absolve yourself of responsibility.

How am I absolving myself of responsibility? I have acknowledged multiple times that my reads were bad, that I screwed up, and that I’m re-evaluating. You seem to be pushing the narrative that I was the main reason Bob was TK’ed and the main pusher. That’s just straight up wrong.

[Andresvmb]

Because the more you bring up that NPOM should be the TK and not you, the less confident I am that you are both the Team. Which is what’s fueling my paranoia about VPB. I get why you’re also discrediting Testarossa for example. But that’s still half of the pool outside of the PR slots + Ico.

Wow, you sure are letting supposed scum manipulate your opinions a lot.

It’s an argument from game theory, not opinions. The game doesn’t end after today, regardless of where we execute. So there’s some WIFOM there to tossing NPOM under the bus if you will, but I have a nagging feeling that you would be a bit more defensive of NPOM now if you were aligned.

[Andresvmb]

You were the main pusher. You and VP maybe but he came in at the last minute. If anyone agrees with you on this I'd like them to speak up.

Re-read the damn game. That’s all I’m going to say to you. Because arguing that VPB came in last minute is laughably wrong.

[Andresvmb]

You have such a bad idea of what Town do and don’t do, I don’t even know where to begin. I’m not shifting blame anywhere it’s not entirely relevant or deserved. What I’m trying to explain is that correctly interpreting the events that have happened is very important for how alignments are perceived. If all you’re going to argue is that Bob is primarily my fault, and therefore I’m Scum, then you’re either terrible at the game, or Scum.

[Andresvmb]

I’m also going to point out that you’re letting yourself be completely influenced by arguments made from the players that are still here and you don’t know their alignments, but ignoring the opinions of players that have already flipped. It’s just so annoying.

[Andresvmb]

And just for the record, here are the posts that demonstrate VPB’s consistent push of Snowblaze/Bob’s slot. Now please try to tell me how it is that he only came for Bob at the last minute.

607
615
621
697
705
729
732
734
776
777
818
905
924
936
979
1005
1083
1113
1179
1181
1187
1220
1323
1326
1340
1368
1373
1474
1476
1782
1793
1904
1993
2053
2123
2166
2193
2352

[Andresvmb]

Like what game are you fucking reading?

[Andresvmb]

I’ll be honest - mechanics are the ONLY thing that have me excluding VPB right now from the Pool. Because his push of Billy + Snow/Bob has been so blatant and consistent, and obviously horribly wrong, that you HAVE to question the slot. I get that I deserve just as much criticism, because I was clearly also wrong about both slots (though my antipathy towards Billy came a bit later in the game and in relationship to Bob), but if you’re seriously going to argue that I was the main person pushing Bob, you are so clearly mistaken it’s painful. The evidence is all right there in front of your face.

[Andresvmb]

Andres is sounding desperate now.

So you’re not even going to bother refuting what I’m saying? I’m just desperate?

[Andresvmb]

Like what game are you fucking reading?

I try to warn y'all about arguing with NPOM.

He's not completely wrong in the point he's making though, which is that you weren't a minor player in that wagon. I think both you and I pushed hard on that. I even went as far as saying I'd go 1v1 on it (though I figured I'd get NKed anyhow, so who cares). I think it's a little silly that you're trying to paint me as the like main reason Bob ate rope when you definitely helped (as did many other players).

This is an obvious misrepresentation of my position. When did I say I had nothing to do with the Bob flip? Or that I never pushed the slot or wasn’t responsible? Where? Did I say that?

[Andresvmb]

What I clearly said is that NPOM seems to be believe that I was the main and only driver behind the Bob flip, and that you came “at the last minute”. And c’mon now, that’s absurd.

[Andresvmb]

I get that I deserve just as much criticism

I don't think you do actually

That seems to be your perception, and it’s not founded on anything I’ve said as far as I’m concerned.

[Andresvmb]

Like what game are you fucking reading?

I try to warn y'all about arguing with NPOM.

He's not completely wrong in the point he's making though, which is that you weren't a minor player in that wagon. I think both you and I pushed hard on that. I even went as far as saying I'd go 1v1 on it (though I figured I'd get NKed anyhow, so who cares). I think it's a little silly that you're trying to paint me as the like main reason Bob ate rope when you definitely helped (as did many other players).

This is an obvious misrepresentation of my position. When did I say I had nothing to do with the Bob flip? Or that I never pushed the slot or wasn’t responsible? Where? Did I say that?

The impression I'm getting is you've made several comments about how my push on snowblaze was scummy while adding qualifiers to your own involvement.

Now you're throwing Billy in there who I didn't seriously scumread since like mid-D1. I mean, it doesn't look like I'm the one misrepresenting here.

Yes, you’re right that you downplayed your SR of Billy as the game progressed. That’s easily observable. But how much is related to the fact that Billy was identified as the Tracker I don’t know. And just think about that for a minute. Why am I loudly involving Billy as the Scum before the end of D2 if I know the slot is the Tracker and is not going to flip? What incentive do I have to do that? Make myself look even worse?

[Andresvmb]

What I clearly said is that NPOM seems to be believe that I was the main and only driver behind the Bob flip, and that you came “at the last minute”. And c’mon now, that’s absurd.

And this is different from his play the rest of the game?

It doesn’t make it any less annoying or bad.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway I think I’m really tired of arguing this point. I have explained how I see the game. I don’t want to crowd out other voices completely. I need to take a step back from this anyway.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t have any sense for game balance. I have said this already. So I’m not establishing my pool for today based on speculation about the potential roles in the game.

And running up a player that you already know the Role for seems kind of dumb, but feel free to argue whatever you want. It’s almost as if you are arguing that Scum can do all these things and never attract any suspicion from them.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway the point wasn’t even specifically about Billy. The point was primarily about Bob, and how NPOM is obviously wrong and not reading the game. And it is true you’re mostly being TR VPB not because of the content of your posts, but mechanics. I’m also not the only person to raise the issue of balance. So feel free to paint me as a Lone Wolf here, but I’m clearly not.

[Andresvmb]

If you all think that the core of {Alduskkel, DkKoba, NPOM}, which is literally all currently voting me, is going to flip Scum in my slot after landing on Town practically every Day, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Andresvmb]

I’m not a PR btw.

[Andresvmb]

Right, I’m not reading the game. It’s not like I quote extensively from it all the time.

[Andresvmb]

But yeah how curious that the same wagon that’s been leading the wrong way all game lands on me and nobody bats an eye. If the Town this game don’t wake up to what is happening, then they never will.

[Andresvmb]

I have already. VPB has already signaled massive intent to vote my way, and all of DkKoba, NPOM, and Aduskkel are currently voting me. Just how likely it is you think that all of the non-PR slots outside of you Ico and Testarossa are all of a sudden flipping Scum when they have landed on Jankofan, Bob, and Testarossa this game (outside of Alduskkel’s vote for NPOM yesterday with Billy).

[Andresvmb]

So unless the Team is exclusively Ico, Teatarossa who I’m defending, and Me, then I’m obviously not Scum.

[Andresvmb]

Of course, you should factor in the odds that Scum are bussing. But, why would they do that when they haven’t had to the whole game.

[Andresvmb]

Ico if you think I’m independently Scummy, then by all means. But Scum have been very good at isolating players this game and making them sound crazy by attacking them from all angles. And we have done nothing but get it wrong every time.

[Andresvmb]

I have tried to do that already. Read 2539, 2540, 2545, 2553, 2556.

[Andresvmb]

How are 2 mis-executions not a lot for you? In most games I play, 3 mis-executions typically loses the game completely.

[Andresvmb]

And also, say you execute me today. Who are you going for tomorrow? And at that stage, are you not completely gambling the game on VPB being Town? Because in the off-chance that they’re not, they *will* have a red check, and it will be wrong.

[Andresvmb]

If VPB is Scum, they will obviously be around tomorrow. And you will have to make a decision as to whether to trust the red check or clear, or yeet him. But anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself.

I have a lot of doubt as to whether Alduskkel is Scum. I do. This could be another situation where the Scum are just letting us eat each other alive. But how curious that none of the players I’ve mentioned are leaning towards Alduskkel and instead are landing on me.

[Andresvmb]

I just gave you an answer on Testarossa a few posts above.

[Andresvmb]

It just means we are dealing with some savvy scum players which reinforces scum!andres

Btw, this is the worst take all game. Right here.

[Andresvmb]

Those “slips” that keep occurring and keep getting highlighted btw, I would completely ignore them. How easy for a player to “forget” that the Scum have Day Talk, or that Hellbooks isn’t Confirmed Town already by virtue of a Mason claim. Didn’t VPB try earlier in the game to ask if the Scum have Day Talk because it wasn’t standard back when he was playing several years ago? Like what a strange coincidence. Look I can do it too. Would it even be a thread on this site, or on Discord? The Day Talk for Scum? I don’t even know actually.

[Andresvmb]

Given the way that Alduskkel has been reacting to the fact that NPOM is not being pushed, Ico’s point about their hammer possibly coming from Town earlier in the game, and the fact that they were aligned with Billy yesterday, then the choice really is between Alduskkel and NPOM for me.

The way that NPOM has been twisting facts, and trying to get a silly clear by making the point about the Day Talk, I think I’m wrong, and need to switch.

VOTE: NPOM

@Alduskkel if you’re Town, and you could very well be Town and I was wrong about you, then work with me here. It could be that Billy had a better sense of Scum than Bob since they started the game from the beginning.

[Andresvmb]

The way that NPOM has been treating my slot, calling me desperate, ignoring any of the points I’m making, why is that being TR exactly?

[Andresvmb]

Not to shit on any of your reads, but Hellbooks literally had an anti-vanguard that was all wrong, and I even pointed it to when I made my case that Hellbooks was a soft SR. You guys might just be confirming each other’s views, and way off.

[Andresvmb]

To it*

[Andresvmb]

What do you mean it doesn’t play a part? We’ve all been calling NPOM too Scummy to be Scum practically, yet they’re still here.

[Andresvmb]

well it's not confirmed all wrong

Datisi, it’s wrong. I’m Town. You must think my Scum game is beyond anything you’ve ever seen if you think I can pull all of this off as Scum. I invite you to read any of my Scum games on my home site.

[Andresvmb]

I made the same appeal at the start of the day. I want to execute between the players that have been suspected by Town players that we know are good.

[Andresvmb]

As in good mafia players. Not just Confirmed Town.

[Andresvmb]

Here’s some games. I’m linking Town games too, in case you care to try and spot any differences.

Town
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/otherpick-game-over/4455
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/ranked-5v2/4233/362
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/hsww-mafia-over/4192
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/dbz-mafia- ... -town-win/
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/lapd-mafia-over/4087/642

Scum
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/mall-pirate-mafia/4287/35
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/ranked-2v7/4066
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/bird-flavo ... a/3876/616
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/mafia-4-5- ... r/3352/217

[Andresvmb]

ouch

And I was talking about the dead guys in this game. Not a diss aimed at you or Hellbooks, just to be clear. Like I was re-reading Billy, and it just hit me how silly it was that I was ever suspicious of the slot.

[Andresvmb]

Wait some of those links are broken. I’ll try again.

[Andresvmb]

Just the broken ones:

Town
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/dbz-mafia- ... n-win/4179

Scum
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/bird-flavoured-mafia/3876
https://forum.mafia451.com/t/mafia-4-5- ... r/3352/211

[Andresvmb]

As in good mafia players. Not just Confirmed Town.

Have you played with them before? How do you know they are good? Trying to understand this appealing to dead reads as authority.

Also, this game is hard because everyone is on such different timezones. It's 3am here and I just happened to have to get up for work.

The way I see it, the highest probability of hitting scum is in the {Andres, Tess, Aldus} grouping. Like Icon, I don't quite understand Andres' obvtown!Tess posting (yes. I read your wagon analysis. Just doesn't click with me as a way to clear people given there were town on both of those wagons too). The other grouping of {Koba, NPOM, Icon} feels much less likely to hit scum.

I can tell they’re good by reading them in this game. Bob called out the Masons as Town without knowing they were Masons. There were appeals of letting Bob put his thoughts out there before being flipped because Datisi I believe thought it would be valuable. I’m not just appealing to authority.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, I will reiterate this point because it needs to be said. VPB, DkKoba and NPOM have done nothing but lead to Town the whole game. Why on earth is anyone trusting a wagon lead by almost all of them is still beyond me.

[Andresvmb]

The way that NPOM has been treating my slot, calling me desperate, ignoring any of the points I’m making, why is that being TR exactly?

I want to encourage all of you to read the exchange between Bob and NPOM between 1799 and 1824, and tell me whether you see any similarities with how they treated my slot earlier on this Day.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi I really do think you should pay attention to my 2845.

[Andresvmb]

I need to step away for several hours I have to work.

[Andresvmb]

2776

That’s DkKoba’s vote for me.

[Andresvmb]

And yes Ico is Town.

[Andresvmb]

Okay, now I’ll work. I have no choice.

[Andresvmb]

If you don’t like reading too much, maybe not play forum Mafia. Try video chat mafia instead.

[Andresvmb]

Considering I am now down to a poe of Aldus, Andres, NPOM and Koba the current situation is a bit curious. It can't be that easy with finding the townie in them with literally three of these piling up on Andres?

I think if andres is scum it makes sense he's getting bussed

I’m not getting bussed. I find it really difficult to believe that you all can’t read all of the Towniness radiating from my posts.

[Andresvmb]

what do yall make of testa posting three paragraphs about andres and then finishing it by saying "but aldus might be our best shot today"

I think odds are good one of them is scum and pocketing tbh. Or they could both be and are gambling on a hard wall to get to LyLo.

I'm not a fan of either's wall of info approach. It's exactly what I do as scum when I get in trouble. There's always a bias that more words and links = town. It's why there are entire YouTube channels dedicated to 5G as the cause of the coronavirus

This btw is a lesson on how not to play Town. I’m not saying that Town always need to be super detailed or provide large cases, because that’s tedious. But so far, the most I’ve seen for an explanation against me is that I’m either desperate, or writing too much, which makes me Scum.

I am not trying to build some wall to get to ELo by hard Town Reading a Partner. I’m giving you my honest assessment of the slots that are clearly in the POE.

[Andresvmb]

If you don’t like reading too much, maybe not play forum Mafia. Try video chat mafia instead.

It's not about reading too much. It's a false sense of authority.

I actually go through all your posts and click on every link. Sometimes the link feels appropriate, but other times it just feels like you're padding to make a point stronger than it is.

If you're town, I get not wanting to be yeeted here. But making silly points like scum have both a role cop and a PT cop isn't helping your cause.

Whatever VPB if you’re just going to argue nonsense then just vote me. As if the only reason to suspect you was game balance related. Not that you were Tracked to a death, or tunneled two Town slots.

[Andresvmb]

Or I should say, one Town slot in Bob, with a gradual declining line of suspicion for Billy. To be precise.

[Andresvmb]

I never said that you were pushing Billy D1 for that reason. Like, that’s blatantly false. It’s also for anyone to read.

[Andresvmb]

The post is 2712.

[Andresvmb]

What I said, and frankly somebody should check it because I haven’t had time, is whether there was any meaningful change in VPB’s stance towards Billy between D1 and D2. I believe this has been brought up before by Bob or Datisi I forget. And from what I recall, VPB did soften his stance against Billy towards the end of D1, and not dramatically between D1 and D2. Which could be because Billy was never getting executed, and so VPB relented (and probably more so after the Scum figured out he was the Tracker), or it was a natural progression. That was the only reason I brought that up.

[Andresvmb]

And you’re not questioning the people on the POE. You’re generating excuses for why I’m a reasonable vote and trying to subtly convince other players to vote me. So instead of doing it that way, just do it yourself. You have yet to argue any reason as to why I might be Town from what I can tell. I wonder why that is.

[Andresvmb]

Ah, I’m making trash points. You just accused me of literally saying - you knew Billy was Tracker D1, so you backed off D1. Which again, is absurd, and not what I said.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, I won’t defend myself anymore. I have tried as best as I can to explain why I have some of the paranoia that I do. My vote is in a reasonable slot, and I wouldn’t gamble the game on VPB because of the confirmed PR claim. I have also attempted to pay attention to what some of our fellow dead Townies have been arguing, and I have pointed to some of the tactics that NPOM used against me, which he also used against Bob.

I think the wagon composition, and the players that are collectively arguing against my slot, should give all of you pause. If that doesn’t do it, then I have also linked to games where you can see how I approach Town. I’m flawed, make a lot of mistakes, and can be chaotic. But I try to stay as reasonable as I can.

[Andresvmb]

I know you’re not thinking about it now, but you should consider how you’re going to look when I flip Town. Just a thought.

[Andresvmb]

No, I didn’t say that it makes me Towny that I was pushing him later in the game. It’s a more nuanced point.

The Scum knew after N1 that Billy was the Tracker (and a Mason, most likely). Right? They must have, because otherwise they would have shot Datisi, who came out with the Track result on you. The point that was made later is that having this information probably played a role in how Scum players interacted with Billy, and potentially changed their attitudes towards the slot between D1 and D2. You can also guess that the Scum made the decision at some point between N1 and the end of D2 that Billy was the obvious shot (and probably early). Knowing that Billy was the Tracker, and that he needed to be flipped, I am arguing that as Scum, I would have been less likely to either remain belligerent, or generate a SR of the slot D2. Instead, I would have tried to appease Billy. Most likely. Why? Because what I actually did makes me look bad. And if I’m trying to survive as long as I can, having such stances on Town PR slots that have been killed isn’t smart.

[Andresvmb]

Now, the other possibility, and this of course makes the whole argument moot, is that the Scum actually checked Datisi (who was strong Town D1), and knew that he wasn’t the Tracker (despite his claims otherwise), but just a Mason. Which then would have prompted a search for the true Tracker. However, it wouldn’t have prompted any changes in stance towards Billy.

[Andresvmb]

Notice that I carried the position against Billy all the way to the end of D2. By then, the Scum probably knew who the Tracker was, so I still maintain there’s some validity to what I’m saying, but you could never know either way unless you were actually in the Scum Team and having those conversations.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi, serious question. Do you really think I’m part of a Scum Team with Alduskkel?

The problem you have (I think) is that you’re TR NPOM, and you’re looking at the game through that lens. I know you recognize the significant uncertainty that read carries, but it’s leading you to the wrong conclusion. Why are you even considering joining a third wagon with the same group of players that have executed Town 2 days in a row? What you should see, in my opinion, in a successful wagon today, is a significant difference in opinion

from the players in the POE

. Do you think you’re getting that with me?

@NPOM, could you share a reads list similar to what you did on D1 and D2?

[Andresvmb]

Okay so your POE is {Aldus/Me, Test, Icon}. I presume that you are now excluding Hellbooks who is a claimed Mason.

Pedit: Yeah okay.

[Andresvmb]

But between Aldus and me, you have Aldus as Town, and me as Scum.

[Andresvmb]

From 2785, I gather that DkKoba’s POE is {Me, Aldus, Testa}.

[Andresvmb]

And VPB is at {Me, Testa} for today.

[Andresvmb]

Okay then. I’m indifferent between NPOM and Alduskkel, and will vote either.

@Testarossa, I really do think you should vote.

[Andresvmb]

If I wasn’t so consistently included in the POE’s of the players I was suspecting, and you weren’t paying so much attention to them, then maybe I would be more optimistic.

[Andresvmb]

Like Alduskkel feels like it would be harder to accomplish, and I can already tell there’s a lot of differing opinions. Now that just seems more likely to flip Scum to me.

[Andresvmb]

Hahahahaha okay man.

[Andresvmb]

I have?

[Andresvmb]

Yep, you caught me. I’m just trying to stay alive.

[Andresvmb]

Your reasoning makes no sense.

Gotta love the nerve.

[Andresvmb]

Alright Masonry + Ico, you get to decide the fate of one of Me, Testarossa, and NPOM.

Take your time.

[Andresvmb]

Well I don’t mind this all that much to be honest. However, Datisi has expressed a lot of interest in getting Alduskkel. I will move there if Datisi rejects the existing choices and votes there.

@VPB I didn’t actually catch that. I’ve seen both Town and Scum miss votes at crucial junctures, so it’s difficult for me to assess. Testarossa had expressed a lot of skepticism towards the Bob wagon because it had formed on her as well. So I don’t know that it’s a red flag not to have voted D2 in the same way that say if I had been advocating for Bob but never actually voted there.

[Andresvmb]

What would have helped a lot was for Testarossa to have expressed some interest in an alternative wagon D2, and voted there - that would more clearly signal what her preferences are. However, she’s voting for NPOM now, who if I’m not wrong was the other choice D2. So it’s not like we’re getting materially different information if that makes sense.

[Andresvmb]

But your point though is valid, because if for some reason say Testarossa and NPOM are aligned as Scum, the fact that she didn’t vote for NPOM D2 and give that wagon more momentum would be made starkly obvious with an NPOM flip. But from the looks of it, I would gamble that’s not what we’re going to see.

[Andresvmb]

I do think that the accusation that I tunnel or not consider things within context is harsh. This game has a tremendous volume of posts, and it’s hard to remember all of the details. I have tried to read through the game and make some quick assessments while staying on top of what’s been said. I could also make the same point about you VPB, in that you must see that some paranoia is warranted when we’ve failed so miserably this game, but have made several attempts at either minimizing my comments or make them look absurd in ways that weren’t totally fair. And yeah, I take stabs at people sometimes - it’s the game. We’re not all Town.

In any case, I don’t take things personally either, so there aren’t any hard feelings.

[Andresvmb]

Well, my concern with Tess not voting D2 is she knew what the flip would be. I would expect town to push an alternative if they thought it was a bad wagon. Instead, it was a convenient wagon to just not be on and have no associatives D2, yes?

Yeah that I agree with. That’s why people SR (and rightly so) shade without votes. Because it let’s others stay safely in the background and not get any blood on their hands.

[Andresvmb]

Purely in terms of votes, and outside of NPOM, Tess has

only

voted for Town (and me). But if she’s correct about NPOM, then she’s probably cleared yeah? I think I’m having a hard time seeing Tess as Scum because both Bob and Billy thought Tess was Town, my initial gut reaction was that she was Town, and we have similar views of the game.

My initial gut reaction about DkKoba though was that they were Town too. So I do think it’s a split between those two. You know what it is? I actually think DkKoba has a lot of natural skill for the game. And I can’t help but feel that the fact that they’ve been on so many Town wagons that I shouldn’t totally trust that initial gut reaction. At the same time, I’m trying to avoid having to make this decision, and vote between NPOM (who called me desperate, and has been SR by our fellow dead Townies), and Alduskkel (who said I was arguing against him in bad faith).

[Andresvmb]

There’s one last consideration I should be transparent about. I would be upset losing to NPOM as Scum. And that is absolutely a factor.

[Andresvmb]

The way I see it Andres and Test have about two of the least amount of Towncred in the game and they are trying to push for me elim so what does that tell you?

I mean... yeah, my Town Cred isn’t through the roof. But

no one

has Town Cred for anything outside of mechanics, since we have been executing only Town.

And you really should go back and look at your reads list D2. You had Nulls for two Confirmed Town {Billy, Hellbooks}, and you had both Datisi, who is Confirmed Town, and VPB, who you are practically aligned with right now, as Scum.

So this is so incredibly rich.

[Andresvmb]

That’s from memory, I didn’t go back and check.

[Andresvmb]

You’re already voting me and think I’m Scum so I don’t care.

[Andresvmb]

Meh, VOTE: Alduskkel.

I’ll spicy it up.

[Andresvmb]

No. Only the Scum know my alignment.

[Andresvmb]

The point is that you all couldn’t fault Testa for a vote on me because you don’t know my alignment for certain yet, so that’s unfair from a third party POV. From my POV, it obviously gives me some pause.

[Andresvmb]

@Datisi you have what 4 days to make a decision? Why don’t you go back and read the ISOs and make a decision?

I don’t know if I was the “designated” mis-execute. But unless you think the Team is strictly Me/Testa/Aldus, why am I not voting Testa then? I could have come in, hard TR DkKoba (who only softened their TR of my slot because I expressed a lot of suspicion there), and completely diverted attention towards Testarossa. And why bother pushing VPB? If I was Scum, I had a decent position going into today, and could have directed the execution towards whatever gets me closer to victory, even a Partner if I felt we needed a bus. Instead, I’ve practically turned everybody against me, to the point where I had 3 votes from players outside the Masons + Ico. Ask yourself, why would I do that?

[Andresvmb]

So unless anybody here thinks I have a death wish, I really don’t get why you can’t see that what I’ve been doing is trying to sort each and every player in the POE.

[Andresvmb]

How am I avoiding you. Town should have an open mindset.

HAHAHA you really are one of a kind.

[Andresvmb]

i think what i have is a solid solve and makes sense.

If I really didn’t care about winning, I would let you flip me just so that you can eat crow before the game is actually over, and you have to try and explain this nonsense tomorrow.

[Andresvmb]

I’ve spent enough space explaining my position. I won’t rehash it.

Unfortunately, you won’t see me self-vote here.

[Andresvmb]

Andres is trying to avoid being eliminated by discrediting me and whining about losing to me if I am scum.

I would eliminate Aldus as a second option if necessary but not my first choice.

Test is my third choice but I don't think it will come to that.

Wait let me check my Role PM again. Yep, still Town. You’re still wrong.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t know that I’m willing to die on this rock, but if I am right about something for once (Testarossa being Town), it’ll be a good feeling. And if I’m wrong, then we’ve got Scum so it’s almost a win/win. The downside of course is that I’m probably getting killed tomorrow if Testa flips Scum and I wasn’t on the wagon, but that’s just how it goes sometimes.

[Andresvmb]

Hey Andres, what do you think of Tess' progression on Billy?

I’ll look into this tonight.

[Andresvmb]

Hey Andres, what do you think of Tess' progression on Billy?

I’ll look into this tonight.

You probably got busy, but I still would like this when you have a moment

I did get busy actually, but I read half of Testa’s post last night and the other half just now (I’m talking strictly about the ones between D1 and D2).

Anyway, here is Testarossa’s evolution on Billy:
D1
113 - marked by suspicion.
186 - vote on Billy.
309, 310 - further shade.
865 - maintains the negative Lean, moves onto my slot. The entire POE established here is wrong, except for maybe Aldus.
1527 - still not Town on Billy, though recognizing that reads align.
D2
1855 - wagon analysis after flip completely ignores Billy.
1856 - “SR on Billy has regressed”.

Okay so, I’ll say this because I need to recognize this sort of thing. I’m going to start with I don’t feel like moving. The way the wagons are forming late today - I really can’t imagine that Testa flips Scum. I can’t.

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits

exactly

with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

[Andresvmb]

Now, the way that Testarossa’s and DkKoba are both sort of avoiding Aldus, I have to think that Aldus flips Scum. So I’m not that concerned about my vote.

[Andresvmb]

Testa for example established a 1v1 between NPOM and Aldus, and voted NPOM first. So even if Testa is Scum and I’m wrong, my POE is too small to be completely off with my vote now.

[Andresvmb]

ur words are FLUFFY LMAOOAOAOAOAOA

How am I fluffy exactly? Almost the same wagon that formed on Testa and Bob is forming on Testa. That strikes me as odd. And I’m trying to make sense of Testa’s evolution on Billy which is for everyone to see. Like if you’re going to criticize what I’m writing, then say what it is that I’m wrong about.

[Andresvmb]

^Forming on Testa again*.

[Andresvmb]

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits exactly with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

Ok, so you see what I see there.

Did you skip tests when you were doing your reread?

No I didn’t, but I specifically ISO’ed Testa, and it’s easier to see the evolution when doing that. At first I just wanted to read everybody and see what I felt about all the slots and how they might make sense together.

[Andresvmb]

I could see aldus subbing for one of them. But I really don't see myself being wrong on two.

I was going to respond to this, but why bother? You’re just going to keep posting completely wrong solves until you’re blue in the face.

[Andresvmb]

Okay so, I’ll say this because I need to recognize this sort of thing. I’m going to start with I don’t feel like moving. The way the wagons are forming late today - I really can’t imagine that Testa flips Scum. I can’t.

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits exactly with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

can u tell me about what wagon analysis you have that is so strong as to nullify the second statement in your general read

Say you feel really strongly that NPOM is Town (mis-execute bait, whatever), and you trust Ico because Datisi/Bob/Billy all agreed in different ways that Ico is Town [and that is exactly how I feel]. And say you agree that VPB is near Comfirmed Town, as others appear to be treating the slot. Then your 3 Scum are in Me/Aldus/Koba/Testa yeah? If you see how both Testa and Koba have been acting around the Aldus slot, aren’t you nearly convinced that the slot flips Scum? And if you have NPOM wrong, the statements from NPOM also appear to be trying to move you away from that solve. So even if you don’t trust me at all, and think I’m completely bullshitting you, aren’t you still good with that vote?

At some point you’re going to have to take a leap of faith. If you have a strong case against me, then put it out there and let the chips fall where they may.

[Andresvmb]

How do you know I'm wrong unless you're scum.

You’re wrong because I’m Town and Ico is nearly always Town. Ico is the Towniest player in the list of possibilities. The fact that you can’t see that almost always cost us the game if you’re Town. Now if you’re Scum I don’t care keep pushing this nonsense.

[Andresvmb]

Koba, NPOM and Aldus are pushing me relatively hard, and Testa has voted me in days prior to this one. How am I ever Scum? Purely from a strategic point of view, one of those players would be defending me hard

today

. Nobody is because I need to be kept as an option for the Scum to win.

[Andresvmb]

whats ur poe again? -koba

Kill all hydras.

Aldus, NPOM, you, Andres.

I made my point why I am not seeing Ico as scum, so it literally leaves you four.

This is the strongest defense I got from Testa. How is my logic faulty? Please NPOM, enlighten us.

[Andresvmb]

For scum to win they need two mis elims right? Doesn't matter who.

And EVERYBODY has left me open. And I got pushed hard by plenty of players to start the day here. I get it that you’re not using your head. But you should at least have a soft inclination that I’m at least a potential mis-execute.

[Andresvmb]

^You have the audacity to call me Scummy? Unbelievable.

[Andresvmb]

You're the furthest player from a misexecute. If anything you think you can talk your way out of anything and your actions have no consequences.

I have no words.

[Andresvmb]

Play the victim card. Cry me a river.

You’re just responding with this nonsense. You make no arguments that can be refuted. You just think that by calling me Scummy after getting everything wrong you’re going to get your way. It’s awful.

[Andresvmb]

This is going to go down to the wire isn’t it?

[Andresvmb]

I’m content with my vote. I don’t think I’m making a gigantic mistake or anything.

[Andresvmb]

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits exactly with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

Ok, so you see what I see there.

Did you skip tests when you were doing your reread?

No I didn’t, but I specifically ISO’ed Testa, and it’s easier to see the evolution when doing that. At first I just wanted to read everybody and see what I felt about all the slots and how they might make sense together.

I guess I was just confused because you came at me hard over the Billy stuff, but testa kind of got a pass on it.

Why did you come after me and not testa?

At first I didn’t realize that the transition on Billy was what it was. But I also feel like there are other things to consider. I think the biggest influence there was Bob’s hard SR of the both of us. I don’t know that Bob had anything right outside of his TR’s. But I did feel like it merited pushing further, and urgently so.

[Andresvmb]

Bob’s opinions have an influence but my conclusions are all my own.

[Andresvmb]

Bob’s opinions have an influence but my conclusions are all my own.

I mean, you called him and Billy like the smartest towns ever, so it seemed like more than influence.

What are your thoughts on Koba again?

Okay, smartest Towns ever? C’mon now.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, see 2537.

[Andresvmb]

This is a list of DkKoba’s “bad” pushes from my POV, noting that not all of these players have flipped.

Iconeum
315, 317, 363, 468, 480, 539- once the Ico wagon had somewhat disintegrated D1, Koba pushed hard to restart it (there’s other posts but you get the point).

Snowblaze/Bob
This is how Koba’s reads on Snow started:
361, 553, 571, 821 - Snowblaze Town [“Independent Tone”].
622 - Koba does not SR either Billy or Snowblaze (in response to VPB). Maintains they make no sense with Testa on 1114.
However, after some (admittedly) lackluster content from Snow, Koba switched their read on 1170, and abandoned their push on Testa (which spanned most of D1). The vote followed quickly on 1216 after Bob replaced in and put out their wagon analysis, which hardened on 1230. Better explanation on 1260.

In D2, I certainly lead the Bob push more than Koba did, but they were still aggressively pushing for Bob to start the day. However, 1907 shows some paranoia about even that read, and in 1938, Koba almost looks like they want to move

away

from Bob. This is confirmed later when Koba wants to sort in Hellbooks/Aldus (and even throws a TR towards Testa, making a point about “good vibes”). They even show skepticism about moving back to Bob on 2044 and 2194, and start thinking that Aldus’ hammer was bad on 2181.

Hellbooks
2007 - starts with a vote, and tries to rally votes there on 2111.
2186, 2199, 2214 - more shade towards Hellbooks.

I would also point to DkKoba’s push onto Datisi to start D3, but it’s not particularly impactful. Then Koba starts pushing me after I SR them (and after calling me LockTown) but I will admit that I think it’s frustration and surprise probably more than anything else.

I’m not including Koba’s push onto Testarossa D1, because that could very well be genuine and correct.

At the same time, you have to recognize some of the better reads.

320, 355, 1067 - GB, Datisi Town. Defending GB for inactivity.

599 - “Appreciate Jankofan”. TR them on 1016. It’s a shame DkKoba opened the possibility of a hammer on Janko in 1370, because then the TR would make me feel better. Expressing “pockety vibes” in 1614 also doesn’t help, because it

almost

feels like opening up excuses to ensure a Town execution goes through. At the same time, Koba never actually voted for Janko, and gave a rather interesting explanation in 1674 after the hammer from Aldus had happened.

As far as I can tell, Koba never expressed a SR of Billy D1, and actively TR the slot. However, the Read softened on D2, which is odd (and a positive signal) given what transpired later obviously. 2280 is crazy even having figured out that Billy is the Tracker and Bob is practically guaranteed to flip.

[Andresvmb]

And yeah, NPOM is more likely to flip Scum than Koba there’s no doubt about it.

[Andresvmb]

And yeah, NPOM is more likely to flip Scum than Koba there’s no doubt about it.

[Andresvmb]

Crap double post. My internet is sucking right now.

[Andresvmb]

Honestly, I don’t think Koba is a smart flip (and certainly not today). I shouldn’t have softened my TR of Koba as much as I did. I do think they’re more often Town than not.