In post 872, Something_Smart wrote:Presumably it's first to reach the tied amount.
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In post 879, Cupcake Butterfly wrote:Nancy, our one brain cell is making a synaptic connection telepathically.
<3
Can we get one more vote please? Cyrus could be town but SS almost certainly is. Cyrus could also be scum. I have no clue.-
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Rn, 3 SS, 3 Cyrus, so SS will flip unless we get one more. I don’t really have a strong read on Cyrus either way but I hard tr SS.In post 882, Gamma Emerald wrote:What are the votes at rn?
So, my vote isn’t because I necessarily sr Cyrus but I’m extremely confident SS will flip town.-
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Yes but you became MO not Flea, so why does scum!Mastina kill Flea then? Fae obviously had no MO to pass to her.In post 881, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Do you think scum!mastina votes.Flea for MO in the hopes that Flea will name mastina as fae's successor? I think mastina slipped she was unaware of the successor mechanic on D2 but it could have been intentional as I did suspect Flea was either scum, or had the support of a scum who believed they would succeed fae on D1.In post 816, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
I don’t see scum!Mastina voting Flea for MO then killing fae, I would think scum!Mastina would probably be voting a buddy. I think she actually did that in a game I was in - try to get her buddy into the top spot, so voting Flea for MO makes me also think this is her towngame.In post 811, Cupcake Butterfly wrote:I don't follow Mastina's reads in congruence with her stance on the game. If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her? Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly? More so, why tailor an associative between two more players (Cyrus/Me). The list feels convenient to navigate a wagon onto another player in the event of a VFP-townflip that I think is likely.
I'm thinking Mastina may have outside factors going on that could affect her gameplay (plus deadline is different than other games), but I've mainly seen Mastina-town as someone who is more vocal or direct in the thread with their voice - and I'm not seeing that here.
I also understand that I'm projecting in some degree... This is a play I personally see myself doing as scum.-
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3 SS/ 3 Cyrus. But because SS had the votes first, he’s flipping unless one more.
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Ty, I don’t know what Cyrus will flip but I don’t know who is better but SS is definitely town.In post 887, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: Cyrus
I’m not as confident in the Mistyx/S_S TR but I do agree with it-
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Sounds awesome. I’m definitely hard tr you now.In post 889, Cupcake Butterfly wrote:So Gamma, Nancy-Pooky and I are a 3-slot hydra.
Things I did not expect beginning this dayphase or beginning this game.-
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I just felt like he didn’t want to take a stand and didn’t really put much thought into his vote.In post 892, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:In post 842, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:VOTE: Cyrus
Why vote us instead of taking a stand?
Idk, I guess I could do either. What do you guys think? Kyouku or Cyrus?
I'm going to trust you on S_S, Cyrus is in my poe anyways and I do think he was there at deadline to bid yesterday but nobody else is gonna believe that lmao
VOTE: Cyrus-
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I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.In post 250, cyrus62 wrote:
look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.In post 248, imaginality wrote:
The bolded part assumes we mis-exile. We could exile scum...In post 203, ssbm_Kyouko wrote: 5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600,loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down.
Even if we grant your assumption, we're 500 (or X and a purchased role) down x2 if scum successfully nightkill regardless of what bidding strategy we implement. It makes no sense not to bid hard - and without a PT the only way we can reliably cover all the PRs (enough to force scum to bid high for them) without scum knowing who to target for their NK is if we each choose randomly.
Hadn't thought of it by then. At first I was wondering if there was a way we could assign people by name to each PR but that gives scum too much information for their NK tonight and subsequent nights.Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?
We get our money back if we're outbid.While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.
I think these roles are worth bidding for.
It's less advantageous to us to get roles on later days - less chance to use them, more chance to be NKed before using them.
Right now if I vote someone other than me as MO I'd lean more towards Cupcake Butterfly.The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.
@Misty re the scumslip: I felt the comment where ssbm assumed the 125 voter was town was suspicious - in that if he is scum (and they aren't the 125 voter(s)), he would know the 125 voter is town. So I feel that apparent assumption could be indicative of hidden knowledge.-
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That is NAI for SS though. He procrastinates on voting even more than I do.In post 899, imaginality wrote:If we take cyrus being around at deadline as scum-indicative that means they definitely decided to bus Kitty, yes? I don't think I'm ready to sign onto that yet. Whereas Misty was awol and I think D1 was more a case of awol scum than deliberately bussing scum.
I don't have a super strong scum read on you, but I prefer it to ssbm or VFP. As mentioned mastina is higher in my scum reads.In post 838, Something_Smart wrote:Also hi imaginality
Can you talk about why you scumread my slot? I feel like you really haven't done that much, at least that I have seen
One factor why I lean scum on you is this:
Another is Misty's posts about not bothering to scum hunt because this can be solved by PoE.In post 682, imaginality wrote:On SS:
SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.
Another is Misty didn't seem to be doing much at end of day D1 and I feel like active scum would have more likely saved Kitty than bussed. So therefore I'm more inclined to scum read players who weren't doing much near deadline.-
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Scum!Misty actually sounds really really scummy.In post 902, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:I had a great deal of trouble reading Misty until I actually saw her scumgame and it was pretty damned obvious and she wasn’t at all passive in that.-
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I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.[/quote]In post 905, imaginality wrote:
look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.In post 900, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
I doubt the cyrus scum reads because:
- it means scum cyrus didn't try to get on the Kitty wagon despite being active day end
- it means the above quoted post from cyrus, and similar ones, are acting rather than genuine and I don't get that sense; I think confusion is hard to fake and I think he'd be less confused about stuff if he was scum
@cyrusif you're online, and town, and you haven't yet bid all your money, don't bid any more unless you're no longer the likeliest to be elimmed - if you're town and get elimmed it's better for us if you don't take any powers down with you[/quote]
Well, I’m not necessarily sr Cyrus but I was hard tr SS, so I’m not opposed to a different wagon but I was extremely confident on SS!town and wanted to save him. So, if we can get 4 votes on a scummy slot, that would obviously be ideal.
But I really don’t know who. Who am I wrong on?-
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What’s wrong with it? It’s really wild to me that I catch scum and keep having to prove I’m town here.In post 911, imaginality wrote:
Something about the tone of this post rings a little off to me. Will think on it overnight.In post 908, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.
With the mix of reads I don't think we can get another wagon to 4 or 5 before the day ends. But if you want to come and VOTE: mastina with me feel free...-
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Told you.In post 928, Gypyx wrote:Night 2 has ended...
Distance has died ! they were aVanilla Townie
Day 3 starts now-
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In post 828, Something_Smart wrote:Might as well VOTE: Distance
But like I said, I'm around and willing to switch.How does that make sense to you?
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@mod unless Kyouku is literally a double voter, he can’t have been voting both us and Cyrus.-
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S & M
Gamma, CB, SS, Mastina
Marci
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Kyouku/Imaginality/VFP
We’re town. Next is my confident town core. Why would Marci ever kill Distance here?
So that leaves those three.
Of those 3, I probably feel the best about Kyouku for switching his vote, so it’s a toss up between VFP and Imaginality.
I think VFP probably has the most reason to kill Distance but it’s still a super weird kill. If Mastina dies tomorrow, SS was probably wrong.-
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If Mastina/us/Gamma die, VFP probably scum.
Why? Because of Distance NK.
I think rn, it’s VFP/Imaginality based off of PoE.-
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In post 682, imaginality wrote:On SS:
SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.
If SS turns out to be scum I think it extremely likely VFP is town.
Agree that we need to hear more from SS about scum reads. This close to deadline (unless deadline gets extended) everyone should have a vote onsomeone, so we can do decent analysis in later days.In post 592, imaginality wrote:Town spent between 0 and 1586 yesterday depending how much cop went for and which winning bids were town or scum. Scum spent between 0 and 1886.
In terms of how much remaining, with 9 town remaining we have between 2614 and 4500 remaining. Scum have between 374 and 1600 remaining.In post 594, imaginality wrote:Probably better to bid 500 today because then anyone outbidding you is provably scum, so there's a chance of an auction detective getting a guilty (if we win one of the auction detective powers). Compared with if you bid 380, they can bid 381-500 and still claim to be town.
We AD you last night and all you bid on AD was 90. Yet here you are urging town to blow their collective wad, why?In post 681, imaginality wrote:Reposting in a tidied up easier to quote form:
---
I had this neatly formatted and typed out but lost my post, ffs...
The rationale for the scum double bus theory makes no sense to me. It seems likely scum would get Kitty to high-bid cop when they knew Kitty was about to be elimmed. But deliberately double-bussing Kitty, eh, I doubt it. Losing that 800 is going to hurt scum more than just a normal elim. Of course, the fact it seems particularly bad for scum would also boost the towncred reward if they pull it off. But it doesn't seem like the Kitty wagon was really pushed hard so it was a heck of a laid back double bus if it was one. Like I say I don't see it.In post 617, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
@Imaginality, still think this is town? Kyuku’s top srs are on the extremely likely pure Kitty wagon. I was going to unvote you but this screams setting up miselims to me.In post 616, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,In post 605, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through
VOTE: S&M
If this is green I will reconsider Distance.
That said, I also don't think we should simply assume anyone in particular on the Kitty wagon is definitely town. A few people have done so so far: Gamma, Distance, you (S&M), and mastina:
Gamma 440 wrote:I think S&M hydra is probably confirmed town now right?Distance 452 wrote:i should be obvtown after that flip
(plus the 'extremely likely pure wagon' comment above)S&M 475 wrote:I think Kitty wagon was all town and Mastina was obviously right on Flea, so this game should probably not be too hard to solve.
I think if there is scum on Kitty wagon it's least likely Gamma as I think scum bussing earlier in the wagon is more likely than late. I would reconsider that if VFP is scum (as that would mean there wasn't any chance of shifting the elimination away from scum).mastina 483 wrote:
So I am treating y'all as conftown.In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=12846949#p12846949]post 430[/url], Gypyx wrote:KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald
But with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.
Current VFP voters are:
VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko
Of those voters:
With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.
I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.
cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?
I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.
I think if someone did bus Kitty it's more likely Distance than S&M. Their 'i should be obvtown' quote raises my eyebrow (too concerned with how others see them?) and the vote on VFP is unexplained but that could be a play style thing.
I will say I find the meta discussion hard to get into because I don't know anyone from other games and have no time to read dozens of games. The point someone made about Alisae being excited to play when scum made me feel slightly better about Gamma.
Also, why were all the midday bids so low. Come on people, bid high and make scum either give us powers or use their cash. If everyone bids high then it also helps auction detectives (if their target didn't bid today it means they either won a power d1 or are scum saving their cash). Scum can't outbid us for both auction detectives and watcher if we bid high on all three.-
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Dafuq?In post 868, imaginality wrote:The VFP wagon today:
1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"
1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10
Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.
Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory.Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.-
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Both of you are pushing SS who I have a stong tr on and yesterday, you tried to get me to vote Mastina who was the only other vote on VFP despite Distance.In post 836, imaginality wrote:In post 276, VFP wrote:Weekend stuff.
UNVOTE: Gamma
Kitty may be scum for multiple reasons. I'll think when I'm on.In post 456, VFP wrote:I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.
I think VFP is highly likely town.In post 807, Cupcake Butterfly wrote:
Then I'm very interested to hear on what you think VFP's alignment is, and how the wagon might have influenced that read, alongside how it helps you read his wagoners.imaginality wrote:
I've seen several people mention quick hammering (or quockhammering ) but I don't think scumIn post 799, Cupcake Butterfly wrote:
This reinforces the idea that at least 1 scum is a deepwolf, but i think another resides on VFP wagon. This assumes that the ganeatate points to VFP town which I think is plausible. I feel like if scum could've quockhammered a townie, they wouldn't because thwy would knowingly get turbo limmed with deadlines this short and votes coming down to "3? You're dead."canquick hammer under this rule set can they (except when it's already very close to deadline)? Like, if VFP got that extra vote when VFP was E-1 early this game day, we'd still carry on to end of market day and people could leave that wagon, and in theory it could even end up with someone else being eliminated.
Partly that's a read based on posting (activity a bit inconsistent but seems to be actively trying to solve things/raise questions, also I don't think scum unvote at the end of D1 rather than bus Kitty or try to get a different wagon in place).
Partly it's because of the D2 wagon - I feel like scum who reflected on how D1 went down would want to get a wagon on town going early on D2 because I really don't think they want to risk a second scum elim. So when the wagon grew quickly on VFP it led me to feel more confident in my town read.
Also I feel like VFP reacted reasonably to the wagon, still analysing others and asking a few decent questions rather than just self-defense or omgussy posting.
Will comment on the wagoners in my next post.-
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If Imaginality is scum, he just townspewed the entire town minus 1 - with perhaps the sole exceptions of flipped town, CB and Kyouku.In post 868, imaginality wrote:The VFP wagon today:
1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"
1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10
Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.
Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory. Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.-
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Did Imaginality perspective slip with the bolded?In post 939, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
Dafuq?In post 868, imaginality wrote:The VFP wagon today:
1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"
1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10
Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.
Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory.Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.-
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In the unlikely chance I’m wrong about Kyouku, Imaginality is the slot that ties both of them together. Because either Kitty wagon was pure or Imaginality bussed.In post 945, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:VOTE: Imaginality
Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.-
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And the Imaginality/VFP associatives just keep coming.In post 199, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Btw "downplaying hitman" is echoing VFP in a not-so-transparent attempt to turn him on me as I voted him earlierIn post 191, imaginality wrote:Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.
And HEAL: imaginality-
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Imaginality did have reason to kill Flea. I think it’s Imaginality/VFP. I think Imaginality/Kyouku don’t look aligned.In post 312, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
What is the bad road you refer to?In post 288, Flea The Magician wrote:In post 191, imaginality wrote:Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.
And HEAL: imaginalityThis is awful. This is absolutely awful given your own posting. You're showing awareness of the game mechanics while trying to lead town down a bad road.
I confidently tr everyone in my towncore.-
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Yeah but you only bid 90 for a 1-shot AD, so why? You kept beseeching town to blow their collective wad but you only bid a paltry 90 and you accused me of hypocrisy in your previous post.In post 950, imaginality wrote:Oops, clicked submit too soon.
Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.
I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.-
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What a shocker, you and VFP both voting S_S. Totally didn’t see that coming.In post 951, imaginality wrote:Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
No way the cyrus wagon is all town.
VOTE: Something_Smart
Will reread the others tomorrow (evening here) but happy to continue my vote on SS for now.-
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I’m sure Distance actually voting VFP had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it.In post 952, imaginality wrote:The only town read Distance pushed hard was marci. And Distance's final post was a willingness to elim anyone not on the Kitty wagon. So I think if there's an additional reason for the Distance kill it will be that someone who read Distance as town wants extra credit for that read.
or that he townlocked everyone on that wagon. Us and Gamma are probably next.-
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S_S wagon was/is a joke since I have meta on him and this is his town game but continue to ignore that, Both you and Imaginality are.In post 954, VFP wrote:
The cyrus wagon was a joke.In post 951, imaginality wrote:No way the cyrus wagon is all town.-
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I’m voting the other scum but definitely not opposed.In post 955, mastina wrote:For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.
Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)
For that matter?
Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)
But I digress.
VOTE: VFP
Back to doing this, which is what weshouldhave done yesterday.-
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You and CB are TvT.In post 956, mastina wrote:
I mean, yes, that too--it's not just the Pooky half the townread comes from. You're very obviously town by play here, too, Nancy, but in my opinion a 100% guaranteed to be accurate to the point of being a borderline trust tell (it's technically not one but is very close to being one with how damn strong a tell it is) for Pooky's meta is better, harder evidence of your slot being town than you being town.In post 786, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:I don’t have the kinds of interactions with a buddy that I had with Kitty. I don’t understand how anyone in the playerlist reading those interactions could possibly think they’re SvS.
But yes, it's both heads being town for separate reasons, rather than just one.
Again, the two are not mutually exclusive as you have said them to be.In post 811, Cupcake Butterfly wrote: If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her?
I'll be blunt.In post 811, Cupcake Butterfly wrote: Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly?
I didn't read the end of D1.
I didn't even look at the end of D1 wagon aside from seeing the four votes on scum--I legit didn't know there were votes on VFP at all until well after D2 had started and people asked me about VFP vs the scum.
I had zero awareness of VFP suspicion.
I also didn't give a damn.
Because I have my own, individually generated, separate, reasons for believing VFP is scum, generated from basic premises and the logical conclusions to be reached from them.
The D1 wagon on scum went through with only four votes. That makes the players on the wagon much much much less likely to be scum. There's ways for the players on the wagon to be scum--intent to distance not realizing plurality blitz deadlines mean the distancing was lethal (first two votes), or deliberately deciding to bus for the towncred (last two votes). But more likely is just that the votes were town.
Mistyx is both a player whose contributions looked town to me, and whose replacement has also looked town to me, and whose slot has overall been highly town, with the players townreading the slot also being ones I by and large trust, with them townreading the slot for reasons either similar to mine or different but positively augmenting mine. Even were I to doubt my own read there, trusting their reads makes me trust them to be town.
ssbm is similarly a player whose contributions look town to me, their mechanical choice N1 was incredibly pro-town, and who others have thought to be town for fairly good, compelling reasons.
While I know that objectively I fit the profile for scum fairly well (I would consider Flea a threat and could make that kill N1; I did not realize this game had plurality and didn't remember it was a blitz game; I wasn't on the D1 scum wagon), I obviously know that I am town and that in spite of the objective reasons it could be me, know that it isn't me.
Which limits the pool down to, per cyrus's death, three names: {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, marcistar}.
In those three names, VFP seems by far the most likely to be scum just by gamestate and by the N1 kill on Flea.
Given marcistar doesn't look like scum and that you do, that leads to the conclusion of VFP + Cupcake Butterfly.
Kitty/Imaginality/VFP are the team. Just re-ISO Imaginality, the associatives with VFP are through the freaking roof. *sigh*-
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\o/ Someone other than Pooky is actually listening to me. If we yeet one of Imaginality/VFP today and the other one tomorrow, we’re 100% winning this.In post 960, Gamma Emerald wrote:
I rate it a non-zero possibilityIn post 944, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:Did Imaginality perspective slip with the bolded?-
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It really is Imaginality/VFP Everyone else is town. They are so obviously buddies.In post 961, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
Ahem. First of all, caught for the wrong reasons (assuming you meant "if VFP flippedIn post 949, imaginality wrote:13 posts in a row?
I'm not going to be able to keep up on quantity with you today, that's just nuts.
Here's some brief responses:
The comment you bolded and 'dafuq'ed was simply me observing that there wasn't much solid reasoning in the VFP wagon votes so as I saw it, if VFP flipped town the wagoners would be right more by chance than by brilliant deduction.
Your theory that Flea's comment gives me reason to kill Flea is hypocritical when you argued Flea's comment to Nancy wasn't a reason for you to kill Flea.scum...")
As for the next point, I dont think this is hypocritical. The comments from flea aren't similar enough to constitute hypocrisy here.
Even if they were, this is a hydra slot and nancy argued the first point, and it seems you think you're addressing pooky here, so I dont think it's a fair assessment regardless of the content of the comments by flea
I think I've changed my mind on you. I'll give your vfp case a reread.In post 955, mastina wrote:For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.
Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)
For that matter?
Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)
But I digress.
VOTE: VFP
Back to doing this, which is what weshouldhave done yesterday.-
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Yes, exactly which wouldn’t in itself be sus except he made several posts bitching and complaing about town not bidding enough. Meanwhile, he was saving most of his pennies for later.In post 969, Gamma Emerald wrote:
90 specifically? That seems a bit weirdIn post 950, imaginality wrote:Oops, clicked submit too soon.
Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.
I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.-
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I’m not voting anyone today outside of you/Imaginality because I think he’s town.In post 970, VFP wrote:For the record, this has nothing with voting me or scum reading me otherwise I'd have argued before.
I was actually preparing my lim and already placed what I have on the ninja.
But before I go, I'm going to officially put me and SSBM into guaranteed scum within us.
I'll look through later and say as I need to but oh boy is that slip up actually pretty big here!-
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God, this sounds so fake.
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:/In post 980, marcistar wrote:
i dont mind the imaginality or vfp vote, im not sure which i prefer tho ^.^In post 945, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:VOTE: Imaginality
Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.
if it helps with this i gravedug kitty last night and they had no powers. tho u look like u have stuff figured out so maybe this info is useless by nowIn post 955, mastina wrote:Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above.
It’s okay because I’m extremely confident I’ve got this game solved.-
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@Imaginality, why is you bidding “obvious”? If you wanted town to bid high and you bid low, that’s obviously hypocritical.In post 982, marcistar wrote:
i think i understand what this means actually, so i think then that means that vfp is most preferred over imaginality (:In post 950, imaginality wrote:Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.
VOTE: vfp-
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Because if you’re scum, the optics of them dying look terrible.In post 985, VFP wrote:Yes that, SSBM is saying I do not make comments like that as town. In out last game I made snarky comments like that.
As I said, SSBM has fucked up here and pushed a fake meta read on someone who calls it out.
Let me ask you Marci, if SSBM is town, then why are they not killed as the MO?
Of course, this means little with a flip from me. If I flip scum then my comments are irrelevant. If I flip town, then my view is genuine and SSBM is scum, and very strange to not have been killed.-
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:/In post 992, Gamma Emerald wrote:I kinda associate dolphins with someone I never want to see on this site again
So seeing the dolphin avi makes me think you’re him, even when I’ve proven that can’t be the case (outside a pretty major rule being broken)
But dolphins are sooooo cute.-
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Misty didn’t do anything scummy.In post 999, VFP wrote:
No that was from Kitty.In post 998, Gamma Emerald wrote:The calling you town thing
Being called town after I point it out is irrelevant.
SS hasn't done anything that makes me scum or town read them. It's all from Misty.-
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+1In post 1000, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:It's not a meta "case", I suppose you could call it a case if you wanted, but it's a comment on how that post pinged me as wrong for VFP. I just played a game with him where I don't recall him behaving like that -it's undermining mastina as a player rather than making any comment on the case she presented.
(That's more what I would call a case^)
I agree with mastina's case, and I think I caught VFP early on with the MO votes.
If you want to read the whole of the linked game rather than VFPs ISO, which is what the link points to, you'll see I found scum!Italiano quite early on d1 and couldn't convince town to lim him and eventually let myself get distracted. He endgamed the town. It could be recency bias at work (I just caught scum in RVS and let them get away so I dont want to.let VFP get away now), but setting that aside, both of mastina's cases on VFP are well reasoned, and I still think there was an agenda to his early d1 posting.
I also believe the e-1 wagon on him was probably all town, and while that in itself is not reason that he is scum, it does make it more likely than any other random 5 person e-1 wagon, and on the lower chance that he is town, it gives us good info to work with.
This is not why we eliminate VFP though - we eliminate him for the case presented against him and for his reaction to it.
Pedit:also lmao caught for the wrong reasons again, Imaginality and VFP just an echo chamber
My sr is actually more on Imaginality but his associatives with VFP scream SvS.-
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Weird post to make if you’re town.In post 1001, VFP wrote:So we're agreed that there's 100% scum in us?-
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Dude, you’re really not convincing anyone with this.In post 1009, VFP wrote:
Your eye twitches when you lie.In post 1008, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
I didnt realize you had access to my PMsIn post 1006, VFP wrote:That's a lie.-
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You need to bold this or Gypyx won’t see it.In post 1013, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@mod, question about gravedigger/auction mechanics:
if a player is eliminated by plurality, not nightkill, and has also won the bid on an item, would they have "died with the ability" for the purposes of a gravedigger result, or does the dead player technically gain the ability/win the bid after they are dead?
Basically asking, without asking you to confirm kitty won anything, or that Marci actually targeted kitty:
If kitty won cop d1 and was gravedigged last night, would the gravedigger have seen that kitty died with cop?-
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We bid 365 and didn’t get it, so whomever did obviously had to outbid us.In post 1018, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:And I agree it would make sense for gravedigger to see the ability if the target won it as they eliminated but wanted to be sure, because if the gravedigger would see it, it means either town won the cop, or scum outside of kitty won it, meaning they have less money left than we've been assuming.
After this gets cleared up I think we can request anyone that bid on cop, but did not win cop, on d1, to claim the amount they bid. This will let us know how much scum must have spent to win it if they did win it. Since we had another day to bid yesterday this doesnt give away who has money left, I think it's safe but haven't thought a whole lot about it yet as I'm at work. Anyone who sees issues with this let it be known-
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In post 1021, VFP wrote:I mean, we can play this dance.
But let's not back out that there's scum in us.
Not only did you try and save Kitty you also haven't been killed by scum even though town you would be an optimal kill.
This part is very important for everyone to remember on my town flip.-
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He’s town, I was recently buddies with him, so I would think I’d be in a great position to judge.
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He encouraged all of town to bid high but he bids next to nothing. Why didn’t he take his own advice?In post 1035, marcistar wrote:
i kinda think imaginality is town because ofIn post 1031, mastina wrote:Which would leave {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, imaginality, Gamma Emerald}--and two of those four were on the D1 scum wagon. The other two were not. And as an aside, I believe Gamma's content here to be indicative of him being town.
but then im at a big "???" moment rn.. i think cupcake is town as well.In post 950, imaginality wrote:Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.
i don't know gamma emeralds meta, so i cant rule them out.
so its between vfp / something_smart / gamma emerald for me.
embarrassingly enough, i agree with ssbm_kyouko about gamma emerald not really voicing reads. they've just really went with the flow of things and replied to stuff and sused people as it came along, but i dont really see much of a moment of them placing down something solid and sticking to it.
571 1023 i dont think it would be out of the question for scum to be defending each other right now. i think scum could be scared to 1vall it at this point LOL-
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No, I will be town’s hero. If I’m wrong about you, then vote Imaginality but I bet neither of you will vote the other one out.In post 1045, VFP wrote:
You have meta? Ah shit I guess it's mod confirmed.In post 1041, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
S_S wagon was/is a joke since I have meta on him and this is his town game but continue to ignore that, Both you and Imaginality are.In post 954, VFP wrote:
The cyrus wagon was a joke.In post 951, imaginality wrote:No way the cyrus wagon is all town.
Nice try though. You will be towns down fall this game.-
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If you really believe Kyuku is scum, then vote Imaginality because that is the only possible slot that even makes sense as a possible Kyouku buddy. He was totally willing to let SS hang yesterday until I pushed the Cyrus switch, so suggesting that Kyouku and SS are buddies makes 0 sense.In post 1050, VFP wrote:Then vote me.
I've already clarified I've bid what I have on the Ninja role.
You being wrong works better to be shown on me rather than Imaginality for multiple reasons.
Let's not give it the talk if you aren't going to move your vote back to me.
And again, let's not let off that SSBM did a strange swap off me even though I'm scum to them.
If you refuse to vote Imaginality, I’m going to assume I’m correct on the two of you being buddies.