Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Presumably it's first to reach the tied amount.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Idk what Cyrus is but he knew it was between VFP and SS and gives some nonsensical reason for voting us.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Nancy, our one brain cell is making a synaptic connection telepathically.

<3

Can we get one more vote please? Cyrus could be town but SS almost certainly is. Cyrus could also be scum. I have no clue.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

What are the votes at rn?

Rn, 3 SS, 3 Cyrus, so SS will flip unless we get one more. I don’t really have a strong read on Cyrus either way but I hard tr SS.

So, my vote isn’t because I necessarily sr Cyrus but I’m extremely confident SS will flip town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don't follow Mastina's reads in congruence with her stance on the game. If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her? Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly? More so, why tailor an associative between two more players (Cyrus/Me). The list feels convenient to navigate a wagon onto another player in the event of a VFP-townflip that I think is likely.

I'm thinking Mastina may have outside factors going on that could affect her gameplay (plus deadline is different than other games), but I've mainly seen Mastina-town as someone who is more vocal or direct in the thread with their voice - and I'm not seeing that here.

I also understand that I'm projecting in some degree... This is a play I personally see myself doing as scum.

I don’t see scum!Mastina voting Flea for MO then killing fae, I would think scum!Mastina would probably be voting a buddy. I think she actually did that in a game I was in - try to get her buddy into the top spot, so voting Flea for MO makes me also think this is her towngame.

Do you think scum!mastina votes.Flea for MO in the hopes that Flea will name mastina as fae's successor? I think mastina slipped she was unaware of the successor mechanic on D2 but it could have been intentional as I did suspect Flea was either scum, or had the support of a scum who believed they would succeed fae on D1.

Yes but you became MO not Flea, so why does scum!Mastina kill Flea then? Fae obviously had no MO to pass to her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

What are the votes at rn?

3 SS/ 3 Cyrus. But because SS had the votes first, he’s flipping unless one more.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Cyrus
I’m not as confident in the Mistyx/S_S TR but I do agree with it

Ty, I don’t know what Cyrus will flip but I don’t know who is better but SS is definitely town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

So Gamma, Nancy-Pooky and I are a 3-slot hydra.

Things I did not expect beginning this dayphase or beginning this game.

Sounds awesome. I’m definitely hard tr you now.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Cyrus

Why vote us instead of taking a stand?

Idk, I guess I could do either. What do you guys think? Kyouku or Cyrus?

I'm going to trust you on S_S, Cyrus is in my poe anyways and I do think he was there at deadline to bid yesterday but nobody else is gonna believe that lmao

VOTE: Cyrus

I just felt like he didn’t want to take a stand and didn’t really put much thought into his vote.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600,

loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role

, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down.

The bolded part assumes we mis-exile. We could exile scum...
Even if we grant your assumption, we're 500 (or X and a purchased role) down x2 if scum successfully nightkill regardless of what bidding strategy we implement. It makes no sense not to bid hard - and without a PT the only way we can reliably cover all the PRs (enough to force scum to bid high for them) without scum knowing who to target for their NK is if we each choose randomly.

Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?

Hadn't thought of it by then. At first I was wondering if there was a way we could assign people by name to each PR but that gives scum too much information for their NK tonight and subsequent nights.

While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.

We get our money back if we're outbid.
I think these roles are worth bidding for.
It's less advantageous to us to get roles on later days - less chance to use them, more chance to be NKed before using them.

The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.

Right now if I vote someone other than me as MO I'd lean more towards Cupcake Butterfly.


@Misty re the scumslip: I felt the comment where ssbm assumed the 125 voter was town was suspicious - in that if he is scum (and they aren't the 125 voter(s)), he would know the 125 voter is town. So I feel that apparent assumption could be indicative of hidden knowledge.

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If we take cyrus being around at deadline as scum-indicative that means they definitely decided to bus Kitty, yes? I don't think I'm ready to sign onto that yet. Whereas Misty was awol and I think D1 was more a case of awol scum than deliberately bussing scum.

Also hi imaginality

Can you talk about why you scumread my slot? I feel like you really haven't done that much, at least that I have seen

I don't have a super strong scum read on you, but I prefer it to ssbm or VFP. As mentioned mastina is higher in my scum reads.

One factor why I lean scum on you is this:

On SS:

SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.

Another is Misty's posts about not bothering to scum hunt because this can be solved by PoE.

Another is Misty didn't seem to be doing much at end of day D1 and I feel like active scum would have more likely saved Kitty than bussed. So therefore I'm more inclined to scum read players who weren't doing much near deadline.

That is NAI for SS though. He procrastinates on voting even more than I do.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I had a great deal of trouble reading Misty until I actually saw her scumgame and it was pretty damned obvious and she wasn’t at all passive in that.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I had a great deal of trouble reading Misty until I actually saw her scumgame and it was pretty damned obvious and she wasn’t at all passive in that.

Scum!Misty actually sounds really really scummy.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.[/quote]

I doubt the cyrus scum reads because:
- it means scum cyrus didn't try to get on the Kitty wagon despite being active day end
- it means the above quoted post from cyrus, and similar ones, are acting rather than genuine and I don't get that sense; I think confusion is hard to fake and I think he'd be less confused about stuff if he was scum

@cyrus

if you're online, and town, and you haven't yet bid all your money, don't bid any more unless you're no longer the likeliest to be elimmed - if you're town and get elimmed it's better for us if you don't take any powers down with you[/quote]

Well, I’m not necessarily sr Cyrus but I was hard tr SS, so I’m not opposed to a different wagon but I was extremely confident on SS!town and wanted to save him. So, if we can get 4 votes on a scummy slot, that would obviously be ideal.

But I really don’t know who. Who am I wrong on?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.

Something about the tone of this post rings a little off to me. Will think on it overnight.

With the mix of reads I don't think we can get another wagon to 4 or 5 before the day ends. But if you want to come and VOTE: mastina with me feel free...

What’s wrong with it? It’s really wild to me that I catch scum and keep having to prove I’m town here.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Despite you being on Kitty wagon, I trust Mastina more than you but since I’m now hard tr CB, if Mastina pushes him, that would definitely make me reconsider that read.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Night 2 has ended...

Distance has died ! they were a

Vanilla Townie

Day 3 starts now

Told you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Marci is probably clear from this since Distance locktowned her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Might as well VOTE: Distance

But like I said, I'm around and willing to switch.

VOTE: Something Smart

Gypyx you have SS down as Misty.

How does that make sense to you?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 2.5

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (1) - Imaginality
Smoke and Mirrors (2) - ssbm_Kyouko - Cyrus62
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (1) - VFP
cyrus62 (5) - Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
Distance (0)
VFP (2) - Mastina - Distance

not voting (0)

day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-26 10:38:57)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Aution Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 5

2-shot Auction Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 365

2-shot Gravedigger - the top bet at the mid point is 25

2-shot Watcher - the top bet at the mid point is 100

sorry for the delay !

@mod unless Kyouku is literally a double voter, he can’t have been voting both us and Cyrus.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S & M

Gamma, CB, SS, Mastina

Marci

———————————

Kyouku/Imaginality/VFP

We’re town. Next is my confident town core. Why would Marci ever kill Distance here?

So that leaves those three.

Of those 3, I probably feel the best about Kyouku for switching his vote, so it’s a toss up between VFP and Imaginality.

I think VFP probably has the most reason to kill Distance but it’s still a super weird kill. If Mastina dies tomorrow, SS was probably wrong.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 2.5

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (1) - Imaginality
Smoke and Mirrors (1) Cyrus62
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (1) - VFP
cyrus62 (5) - Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)
Distance (0)
VFP (2) - Mastina - Distance

not voting (0)

day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-26 10:38:57)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Aution Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 5

2-shot Auction Detective - the top bet at the mid point is 365

2-shot Gravedigger - the top bet at the mid point is 25

2-shot Watcher - the top bet at the mid point is 100

sorry for the delay !

If Mastina/us/Gamma die, VFP probably scum.

Why? Because of Distance NK.

I think rn, it’s VFP/Imaginality based off of PoE.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

On SS:

SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.

If SS turns out to be scum I think it extremely likely VFP is town.

Agree that we need to hear more from SS about scum reads. This close to deadline (unless deadline gets extended) everyone should have a vote on

someone

, so we can do decent analysis in later days.

Town spent between 0 and 1586 yesterday depending how much cop went for and which winning bids were town or scum. Scum spent between 0 and 1886.
In terms of how much remaining, with 9 town remaining we have between 2614 and 4500 remaining. Scum have between 374 and 1600 remaining.

Probably better to bid 500 today because then anyone outbidding you is provably scum, so there's a chance of an auction detective getting a guilty (if we win one of the auction detective powers). Compared with if you bid 380, they can bid 381-500 and still claim to be town.

Reposting in a tidied up easier to quote form:
---
I had this neatly formatted and typed out but lost my post, ffs...

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,

@Imaginality, still think this is town? Kyuku’s top srs are on the extremely likely pure Kitty wagon. I was going to unvote you but this screams setting up miselims to me.

The rationale for the scum double bus theory makes no sense to me. It seems likely scum would get Kitty to high-bid cop when they knew Kitty was about to be elimmed. But deliberately double-bussing Kitty, eh, I doubt it. Losing that 800 is going to hurt scum more than just a normal elim. Of course, the fact it seems particularly bad for scum would also boost the towncred reward if they pull it off. But it doesn't seem like the Kitty wagon was really pushed hard so it was a heck of a laid back double bus if it was one. Like I say I don't see it.

That said, I also don't think we should simply assume anyone in particular on the Kitty wagon is definitely town. A few people have done so so far: Gamma, Distance, you (S&M), and mastina:

I think S&M hydra is probably confirmed town now right?

i should be obvtown after that flip

I think Kitty wagon was all town and Mastina was obviously right on Flea, so this game should probably not be too hard to solve.

(plus the 'extremely likely pure wagon' comment above)

KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald

So I am treating y'all as conftown.

I think if there is scum on Kitty wagon it's least likely Gamma as I think scum bussing earlier in the wagon is more likely than late. I would reconsider that if VFP is scum (as that would mean there wasn't any chance of shifting the elimination away from scum).

But with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Current VFP voters are:

VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko

Of those voters:

With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.

I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.

cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?

I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.

I think if someone did bus Kitty it's more likely Distance than S&M. Their 'i should be obvtown' quote raises my eyebrow (too concerned with how others see them?) and the vote on VFP is unexplained but that could be a play style thing.

I will say I find the meta discussion hard to get into because I don't know anyone from other games and have no time to read dozens of games. The point someone made about Alisae being excited to play when scum made me feel slightly better about Gamma.


Also, why were all the midday bids so low. Come on people, bid high and make scum either give us powers or use their cash. If everyone bids high then it also helps auction detectives (if their target didn't bid today it means they either won a power d1 or are scum saving their cash). Scum can't outbid us for both auction detectives and watcher if we bid high on all three.

We AD you last night and all you bid on AD was 90. Yet here you are urging town to blow their collective wad, why?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory.

Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

Dafuq?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VFP/Imaginality scumteam.

Kyouku is probably just wrong town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Weekend stuff.

UNVOTE: Gamma

Kitty may be scum for multiple reasons. I'll think when I'm on.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

This reinforces the idea that at least 1 scum is a deepwolf, but i think another resides on VFP wagon. This assumes that the ganeatate points to VFP town which I think is plausible. I feel like if scum could've quockhammered a townie, they wouldn't because thwy would knowingly get turbo limmed with deadlines this short and votes coming down to "3? You're dead."

I've seen several people mention quick hammering (or quockhammering ) but I don't think scum

can

quick hammer under this rule set can they (except when it's already very close to deadline)? Like, if VFP got that extra vote when VFP was E-1 early this game day, we'd still carry on to end of market day and people could leave that wagon, and in theory it could even end up with someone else being eliminated.

Then I'm very interested to hear on what you think VFP's alignment is, and how the wagon might have influenced that read, alongside how it helps you read his wagoners.

I think VFP is highly likely town.
Partly that's a read based on posting (activity a bit inconsistent but seems to be actively trying to solve things/raise questions, also I don't think scum unvote at the end of D1 rather than bus Kitty or try to get a different wagon in place).

Partly it's because of the D2 wagon - I feel like scum who reflected on how D1 went down would want to get a wagon on town going early on D2 because I really don't think they want to risk a second scum elim. So when the wagon grew quickly on VFP it led me to feel more confident in my town read.

Also I feel like VFP reacted reasonably to the wagon, still analysing others and asking a few decent questions rather than just self-defense or omgussy posting.

Will comment on the wagoners in my next post.

Both of you are pushing SS who I have a stong tr on and yesterday, you tried to get me to vote Mastina who was the only other vote on VFP despite Distance.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory. Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

If Imaginality is scum, he just townspewed the entire town minus 1 - with perhaps the sole exceptions of flipped town, CB and Kyouku.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If Kyouku is town but rn, I lean yes unless I’m wrong on either Imaginality or VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory.

Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

Dafuq?

Did Imaginality perspective slip with the bolded?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Imaginality

Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Imaginality

Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.

In the unlikely chance I’m wrong about Kyouku, Imaginality is the slot that ties both of them together. Because either Kitty wagon was pure or Imaginality bussed.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

Btw "downplaying hitman" is echoing VFP in a not-so-transparent attempt to turn him on me as I voted him earlier

And the Imaginality/VFP associatives just keep coming.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

This is awful. This is absolutely awful given your own posting. You're showing awareness of the game mechanics while trying to lead town down a bad road.

What is the bad road you refer to?

Imaginality did have reason to kill Flea. I think it’s Imaginality/VFP. I think Imaginality/Kyouku don’t look aligned.

I confidently tr everyone in my towncore.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oops, clicked submit too soon.

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.

Yeah but you only bid 90 for a 1-shot AD, so why? You kept beseeching town to blow their collective wad but you only bid a paltry 90 and you accused me of hypocrisy in your previous post.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko

No way the cyrus wagon is all town.
VOTE: Something_Smart

Will reread the others tomorrow (evening here) but happy to continue my vote on SS for now.

What a shocker, you and VFP both voting S_S. Totally didn’t see that coming.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The only town read Distance pushed hard was marci. And Distance's final post was a willingness to elim anyone not on the Kitty wagon. So I think if there's an additional reason for the Distance kill it will be that someone who read Distance as town wants extra credit for that read.

I’m sure Distance actually voting VFP had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it.

or that he townlocked everyone on that wagon. Us and Gamma are probably next.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No way the cyrus wagon is all town.

The cyrus wagon was a joke.

S_S wagon was/is a joke since I have meta on him and this is his town game but continue to ignore that, Both you and Imaginality are.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)

For that matter?

Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)

But I digress.

VOTE: VFP

Back to doing this, which is what we

should

have done yesterday.

I’m voting the other scum but definitely not opposed.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don’t have the kinds of interactions with a buddy that I had with Kitty. I don’t understand how anyone in the playerlist reading those interactions could possibly think they’re SvS.

I mean, yes, that too--it's not just the Pooky half the townread comes from. You're very obviously town by play here, too, Nancy, but in my opinion a 100% guaranteed to be accurate to the point of being a borderline trust tell (it's technically not one but is very close to being one with how damn strong a tell it is) for Pooky's meta is better, harder evidence of your slot being town than you being town.

But yes, it's both heads being town for separate reasons, rather than just one.

If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her?

Again, the two are not mutually exclusive as you have said them to be.

Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly?

I'll be blunt.

I didn't read the end of D1.

I didn't even look at the end of D1 wagon aside from seeing the four votes on scum--I legit didn't know there were votes on VFP at all until well after D2 had started and people asked me about VFP vs the scum.

I had zero awareness of VFP suspicion.

I also didn't give a damn.

Because I have my own, individually generated, separate, reasons for believing VFP is scum, generated from basic premises and the logical conclusions to be reached from them.

The D1 wagon on scum went through with only four votes. That makes the players on the wagon much much much less likely to be scum. There's ways for the players on the wagon to be scum--intent to distance not realizing plurality blitz deadlines mean the distancing was lethal (first two votes), or deliberately deciding to bus for the towncred (last two votes). But more likely is just that the votes were town.

Mistyx is both a player whose contributions looked town to me, and whose replacement has also looked town to me, and whose slot has overall been highly town, with the players townreading the slot also being ones I by and large trust, with them townreading the slot for reasons either similar to mine or different but positively augmenting mine. Even were I to doubt my own read there, trusting their reads makes me trust them to be town.

ssbm is similarly a player whose contributions look town to me, their mechanical choice N1 was incredibly pro-town, and who others have thought to be town for fairly good, compelling reasons.

While I know that objectively I fit the profile for scum fairly well (I would consider Flea a threat and could make that kill N1; I did not realize this game had plurality and didn't remember it was a blitz game; I wasn't on the D1 scum wagon), I obviously know that I am town and that in spite of the objective reasons it could be me, know that it isn't me.

Which limits the pool down to, per cyrus's death, three names: {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, marcistar}.

In those three names, VFP seems by far the most likely to be scum just by gamestate and by the N1 kill on Flea.

Given marcistar doesn't look like scum and that you do, that leads to the conclusion of VFP + Cupcake Butterfly.

You and CB are TvT.

Kitty/Imaginality/VFP are the team. Just re-ISO Imaginality, the associatives with VFP are through the freaking roof. *sigh*

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Did Imaginality perspective slip with the bolded?

I rate it a non-zero possibility

\o/ Someone other than Pooky is actually listening to me. If we yeet one of Imaginality/VFP today and the other one tomorrow, we’re 100% winning this.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

13 posts in a row?

I'm not going to be able to keep up on quantity with you today, that's just nuts.

Here's some brief responses:

The comment you bolded and 'dafuq'ed was simply me observing that there wasn't much solid reasoning in the VFP wagon votes so as I saw it, if VFP flipped town the wagoners would be right more by chance than by brilliant deduction.

Your theory that Flea's comment gives me reason to kill Flea is hypocritical when you argued Flea's comment to Nancy wasn't a reason for you to kill Flea.

Ahem. First of all, caught for the wrong reasons (assuming you meant "if VFP flipped

scum

...")

As for the next point, I dont think this is hypocritical. The comments from flea aren't similar enough to constitute hypocrisy here.

Even if they were, this is a hydra slot and nancy argued the first point, and it seems you think you're addressing pooky here, so I dont think it's a fair assessment regardless of the content of the comments by flea

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record I made a pretty damn high bid (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

Unfortunately that 500 is like 99% likely to have been a scum bid because no competent townie would've bet their entire savings on Watcher and then NOT have watched Distance so the 1% is someone being idiotic enough to spend all of their money on that role and yet be blind enough to not realize that literally nobody else was going to be the N2 nightkill. (Because, yes. To be clear. If you didn't realize Distance was the kill last night the way I did and you bid that much on Watcher--you're an idiot. It's literally inexcusable to pick up that role and then blunder that badly by not watching the obvious nightkill because Distance WAS that obviously the nightkill. But most likely, 500 = scum bid.)

For that matter?

Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above. Someone spent 250 on that role and it was 2x so they had a protection available last night. Not protecting Distance is inexcusable as a doctor, so very likely either they're dead or scum. (To reiterate again, literally nobody was more likely to be nightkilled than Distance, and you can use sheer basic fundamental logic to track why. On the D1 scum wagon, imaginality had suspicion on him for his terrible D2 pushes so he wasn't going to die; Smoke and Mirrors had terrible suspicion on them D2 so they weren't going to die; Gamma Emerald I recall having reason to think Gamma wouldn't die; VFP as the scumfuck he is certainly wasn't going to die; Something_Smart with the suspicion his slot had wasn't going to die; Cupcake Butterfly definitely wasn't going to die; ssbm was heavily suspected by Smoke and Mirrors so wasn't going to die; imaginality's shitpush on me meant I wasn't going to die. Of these, the only one I can't remember strongly is Gamma Emerald but between Gamma Emerald and Distance the choice for the N2 nightkill was very very very obviously Distance here so neither the doctor nor the watcher targeting Distance means they're either dead, scum, or incompetent; those are the only three options available and given the size of the bids, dead or scum are the most likely.)

But I digress.

VOTE: VFP

Back to doing this, which is what we

should

have done yesterday.

I think I've changed my mind on you. I'll give your vfp case a reread.

It really is Imaginality/VFP Everyone else is town. They are so obviously buddies.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oops, clicked submit too soon.

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.

90 specifically? That seems a bit weird

Yes, exactly which wouldn’t in itself be sus except he made several posts bitching and complaing about town not bidding enough. Meanwhile, he was saving most of his pennies for later.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

For the record, this has nothing with voting me or scum reading me otherwise I'd have argued before.

I was actually preparing my lim and already placed what I have on the ninja.
But before I go, I'm going to officially put me and SSBM into guaranteed scum within us.
I'll look through later and say as I need to but oh boy is that slip up actually pretty big here!

I’m not voting anyone today outside of you/Imaginality because I think he’s town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: SSBM

don't run away from me! You fake meta scum user >:|

God, this sounds so fake.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Imaginality

Could still switch to VFP. I don’t see voting anywhere else today.

i dont mind the imaginality or vfp vote, im not sure which i prefer tho ^.^

Either the 2x doctor is dead, scum, or incompetent--same reason as the above.

if it helps with this i gravedug kitty last night and they had no powers. tho u look like u have stuff figured out so maybe this info is useless by now

:/

It’s okay because I’m extremely confident I’ve got this game solved.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

i think i understand what this means actually, so i think then that means that vfp is most preferred over imaginality (:

VOTE: vfp

@Imaginality, why is you bidding “obvious”? If you wanted town to bid high and you bid low, that’s obviously hypocritical.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Yes that, SSBM is saying I do not make comments like that as town. In out last game I made snarky comments like that.
As I said, SSBM has fucked up here and pushed a fake meta read on someone who calls it out.

Let me ask you Marci, if SSBM is town, then why are they not killed as the MO?
Of course, this means little with a flip from me. If I flip scum then my comments are irrelevant. If I flip town, then my view is genuine and SSBM is scum, and very strange to not have been killed.

Because if you’re scum, the optics of them dying look terrible.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I kinda associate dolphins with someone I never want to see on this site again
So seeing the dolphin avi makes me think you’re him, even when I’ve proven that can’t be the case (outside a pretty major rule being broken)

:/

But dolphins are sooooo cute.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The calling you town thing

No that was from Kitty.
Being called town after I point it out is irrelevant.

SS hasn't done anything that makes me scum or town read them. It's all from Misty.

Misty didn’t do anything scummy.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

It's not a meta "case", I suppose you could call it a case if you wanted, but it's a comment on how that post pinged me as wrong for VFP. I just played a game with him where I don't recall him behaving like that -

it's undermining mastina as a player rather than making any comment on the case she presented.

(That's more what I would call a case^)

I agree with mastina's case, and I think I caught VFP early on with the MO votes.

If you want to read the whole of the linked game rather than VFPs ISO, which is what the link points to, you'll see I found scum!Italiano quite early on d1 and couldn't convince town to lim him and eventually let myself get distracted. He endgamed the town. It could be recency bias at work (I just caught scum in RVS and let them get away so I dont want to.let VFP get away now), but setting that aside, both of mastina's cases on VFP are well reasoned, and I still think there was an agenda to his early d1 posting.

I also believe the e-1 wagon on him was probably all town, and while that in itself is not reason that he is scum, it does make it more likely than any other random 5 person e-1 wagon, and on the lower chance that he is town, it gives us good info to work with.

This is not why we eliminate VFP though - we eliminate him for the case presented against him and for his reaction to it.

Pedit:also lmao caught for the wrong reasons again, Imaginality and VFP just an echo chamber

+1

My sr is actually more on Imaginality but his associatives with VFP scream SvS.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

So we're agreed that there's 100% scum in us?

Weird post to make if you’re town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That's a lie.

I didnt realize you had access to my PMs

Your eye twitches when you lie.

Dude, you’re really not convincing anyone with this.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@mod, question about gravedigger/auction mechanics:

if a player is eliminated by plurality, not nightkill, and has also won the bid on an item, would they have "died with the ability" for the purposes of a gravedigger result, or does the dead player technically gain the ability/win the bid after they are dead?

Basically asking, without asking you to confirm kitty won anything, or that Marci actually targeted kitty:

If kitty won cop d1 and was gravedigged last night, would the gravedigger have seen that kitty died with cop?

You need to bold this or Gypyx won’t see it.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And I agree it would make sense for gravedigger to see the ability if the target won it as they eliminated but wanted to be sure, because if the gravedigger would see it, it means either town won the cop, or scum outside of kitty won it, meaning they have less money left than we've been assuming.

After this gets cleared up I think we can request anyone that bid on cop, but did not win cop, on d1, to claim the amount they bid. This will let us know how much scum must have spent to win it if they did win it. Since we had another day to bid yesterday this doesnt give away who has money left, I think it's safe but haven't thought a whole lot about it yet as I'm at work. Anyone who sees issues with this let it be known

We bid 365 and didn’t get it, so whomever did obviously had to outbid us.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I mean, we can play this dance.
But let's not back out that there's scum in us.

Not only did you try and save Kitty you also haven't been killed by scum even though town you would be an optimal kill.
This part is very important for everyone to remember on my town flip.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Gamma

He’s town, I was recently buddies with him, so I would think I’d be in a great position to judge.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Which would leave {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, imaginality, Gamma Emerald}--and two of those four were on the D1 scum wagon. The other two were not. And as an aside, I believe Gamma's content here to be indicative of him being town.

i kinda think imaginality is town because of

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

but then im at a big "???" moment rn.. i think cupcake is town as well.

i don't know gamma emeralds meta, so i cant rule them out.
so its between vfp / something_smart / gamma emerald for me.
embarrassingly enough, i agree with ssbm_kyouko about gamma emerald not really voicing reads. they've just really went with the flow of things and replied to stuff and sused people as it came along, but i dont really see much of a moment of them placing down something solid and sticking to it.
571 1023 i dont think it would be out of the question for scum to be defending each other right now. i think scum could be scared to 1vall it at this point LOL

He encouraged all of town to bid high but he bids next to nothing. Why didn’t he take his own advice?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No way the cyrus wagon is all town.

The cyrus wagon was a joke.

S_S wagon was/is a joke since I have meta on him and this is his town game but continue to ignore that, Both you and Imaginality are.

You have meta? Ah shit I guess it's mod confirmed.
Nice try though. You will be towns down fall this game.

No, I will be town’s hero. If I’m wrong about you, then vote Imaginality but I bet neither of you will vote the other one out.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Then vote me.
I've already clarified I've bid what I have on the Ninja role.
You being wrong works better to be shown on me rather than Imaginality for multiple reasons.

Let's not give it the talk if you aren't going to move your vote back to me.
And again, let's not let off that SSBM did a strange swap off me even though I'm scum to them.

If you really believe Kyuku is scum, then vote Imaginality because that is the only possible slot that even makes sense as a possible Kyouku buddy. He was totally willing to let SS hang yesterday until I pushed the Cyrus switch, so suggesting that Kyouku and SS are buddies makes 0 sense.

If you refuse to vote Imaginality, I’m going to assume I’m correct on the two of you being buddies.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Misty didn’t do anything scummy.

You are alleging that scum!Kyouku was find with letting her “buddy” S_S hang yesterday, had I not flipped the votes. Yes?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If you really believe Kyuku is scum, then vote Imaginality because that is the only possible slot that even makes sense as a possible Kyouku buddy. He was totally willing to let SS hang yesterday until I pushed the Cyrus switch, so suggesting that Kyouku and SS are buddies makes 0 sense.

If you refuse to vote Imaginality, I’m going to assume I’m correct on the two of you being buddies.

Ew

Why am I not surprised. Your sr on Kyouku is also bs then.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No, I will be town’s hero.

If I’m wrong about you, then vote Imaginality but I bet neither of you will vote the other one out.

I'd honestly just rather be the lim today instead on doing some pointless shit on a town flip from Imaginality.
At least then everything I have said can be taken as geniuen and has probability to it.

I'll self vote if that helps you pick me?
As I said, I already accepted my lim today and even if I'm kept around I'm useless to purchase for town and useless to draw a NK.
If even 50% chance that I flip scum for people, I'm really the optimal lim here.

Imaginality town more than not though.

You’re pushing Kyouku as scum with a slot he was fine with dying yesterday before I flipped the votes. Are you even reading your own posts?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

So we're agreed that there's 100% scum in us?

Weird post to make if you’re town.

Not for VFP/Vedith
(He outed in another game so I consider that open season on disclosing who the alt is of)

Well, I’m the most confident on Imaginality and VFP has refused to even consider voting him, which is the main reason I think that’s the team + Imaginality’s posts which sound aligned with VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Here’s my thing. I get the VFP+imaginality associatives, but rn I feel like something about kyouko is scummier
My immediate attempt to hit that gut feeling with a tangible expression is that something about the picks maybe feels off?

Well based on my reads, Imaginality makes the most sense as buddies with either. I don’t think VFP and Kyouku are doing scum theatre, so that’s why my vote is on him and not VFP.

But so far, VFP has not even been willing to consider voting him, which just increases my confidence that I’m probably right on an Imaginality/VFP team.

And both voted SS and are also pushing Mastina as well, so neither one has done anything to make me think I’m wrong.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

+1

Exactly, I don’t see VFP and Kyouku as aligned based on him trying to switch the vote from Kitty to VFP and I hard tr everyone else in this game, so both scum in Imaginality/VFP/Kyouku. I just don’t think it’s him but if I’m wrong on VFP, Imaginality endgames regardless which one he’s partnered with. But everything about Imaginality’s ISO and the similar pushes makes me lean towards Imaginality/VFP but I think if I’m wrong on one of them, it’s more likely to be VFP than Imaginality but I actually don’t think I’m wrong though.

VFP’s reaction to my suggesting he vote Imaginality really really pinged me. I got the impression that Kyouku otoh, isn’t actually opposed to that.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: imaginality

I'm over it.
This game has had the most awkward scum reads on me from missing "/" In a post to only I kill Flea.

Remember I bid, 500 on ninja so an outbid means scum get this and suncecim never the NK I'll just confirm tomorrow.

I'm sure I'm just bussing scum here now though or some other thing, then a green flip I was tmi.

I’m extremely confident Imaginality flips scum, I have more doubt on you especially knowing who you are but I think this will help us solve the game.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Regarding mastina, I want her and VFP to interact today because I think it's TvS - this is why I'm backing off of VFP right now, because I dont want to do the same thing with him that I did with S&M yesterday.

Marci I agree is genuine in all her posting, and VFP is supposed to know her scum game really well according to her. I dont think he's voiced concerns on the slot so if he is town she probably is too. Independent of that though she is still strongly town.

I looked for Gamma games but our games are like 4-5 years old and he seems to have a different playstyle but in 2213 I saw that as town he was always on the final wagon that resulted in elim the first 3 Days, on d4 he was on the counter to me, andres, when I faked a guilty on andres as town. I was hard defending Gamma and I got limmed. D5 Gamma was elimmed in limlo. So what I'm saying is it's consistent with his last town game to be voting the way he is. I just feel like he was more actively engaged in the last game than here.

If Kyouku is scum here, then he’s doing an excellent job of sounding really really townie with this.
My gut is very happy with my current vote.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

Same would apply to the VFP-me scum pairing some people have been mooting. Or me-Gamma for that matter.

S&M, does ssbm's point change your views on me and/or VFP?

The fact that I misunderstood your 90 bid, means you weren’t being hypocritical about wanting town to bid high.

If it isn’t you/VFP than someone has been pocketing me really really good.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

UNVOTE:

for now until I figure this out.

The way I see it is if Kyouku is town which I think he is, then Distance dying over him, points to VFP and if I’m wrong on Imaginality, then it could be a tmi from VFP.

It’s extremely unlikely both Imaginality and VFP are town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don't understand it.
I was just going to say that SSBM is most likely town, but if they picked the 4 roles then that's a townlock.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

Gylyx doesn't do a VC on a flip normally I think.

VOTE: MistyxVOTE:

I also don't think Marci is scum here.

I get to enhance 4 roles which makes them 400% more likely (I think this means 5x as likely but the setup may be worded incorrectly) to appear. I enhanced the 1-shot BP and also enhanced the 3 2-shot roles that appeared today. The 1-shot AD came in with it's normal chance, but I wanted it for tomorrow because it only.gives the most recent day of history. Both ADs the same day means unless the winner holds on to a shot they'll be looking at who bought the other AD potentially which is a but of a waste imo. Thought they'd be better staggered because then the second shot would line up with the 1-shot and we'd have 2 detectives looking at toMorrows bids when the player pool is reduced more

Ah, got it.
Thats for confirming. I actually thought by enhance you made it better.

Regardless I think the 4 we got are really strong for this early in the game.

I've only played with Nancy once (it was a Pooky Nora Nancy hydra) and I was Paranoid that they were bussing scum come late game.
I was wrong though and they flipped town.

Outside of that, I have no experience that I at least remember.

I keep going back and forth on this. I want to be super confident on a VFP scumflip but I just can’t. But if Gamma’s right and you actually are Vedith, then we’ve definitely played together before Happy Face.

I just don’t see why Marci kills Distance and who of my trs I could possibly be reading wrong. I guess it’s possible CB could be pocketing me? He did give me that tr pretty fast but he’s not really being scummy either. I’ve seen his scumgame and it didn’t look anything like this.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I still think CB is town. He’s really not trying to push anything but rather seems earnestly trying to sort.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

something_smart do u got any reads?

Still catching up, but they haven't changed much since yesterday. I still like VFP, S&M, mastina, and I'm not interested in CB or Gamma today.

Between the rest I'd prefer ssbm today I think, but I'm not opposed to imaginality.

@Marci, why does scum!SS kill Distance? If he trs VFP and he wanted to elim Kyouku > Cyrus yesterday? Because Distance kill obviously looks really bad for VFP, so unless I’m missing something?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

@Marci, why is this scummy?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Marci, why do you tr Imaginality?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Cupcake Butterfly

We should get at least something done and Butterfly not posting for 5 days 9 hours

is just absurd.

@Gypyx you really need to stop letting players go right past the prod timer. we had this same issue in Gamma's Upick when you let that slot go inactive for like 3 weeks

[Smoke and Mirrors]

UNVOTE:

I will catch up but I don’t want to vote CB today.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

UNVOTE:

I will catch up but I don’t want to vote CB today.

I have an extremely difficult time seeing scum!CB lurking like that unless they were literally a slam dunk to be elimed.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

ngl, not a fan of marcistar's push on S_S

Vfp, why vote Imaginality now? To prove you 2 arent scum together?

@everyone, if mastina flipped red right now, who would her partner be? I'm entertaining a theory right now of scum!mastina town!vfp and I think I see a likely partner, wanna know what others think, especially curious what S&M, Gamma, and Imaginality think as members of the Kitty wagon.

I agree with SS on Mastina!town. She sounds very natural here and she sounds pretty much the polar opposite as scum.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

ngl, not a fan of marcistar's push on S_S

Vfp, why vote Imaginality now? To prove you 2 arent scum together?

@everyone, if mastina flipped red right now, who would her partner be? I'm entertaining a theory right now of scum!mastina town!vfp and I think I see a likely partner, wanna know what others think, especially curious what S&M, Gamma, and Imaginality think as members of the Kitty wagon.

This is nowhere near a conclusive thought but I read a few of mastina’s early posts and I kinda feel like CB could be a mastina partner

I think they’re both town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: Imaginality

Maybe they’re not aligned but I think think he’s the connecting factor between VFP and Kyouku. I think we’re making a huge mistake if we lim anywhere outside of those three.

VFP and Kyouku are not aligned with each other but either could be with Imaginality. I still think this is the best vote.

@Marci, I asked you why you tr him and your answer could possibly affect my vote.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I suspect that if a slot is lurking this hard it's not alignment related. If Gypyx had been keeping up with prods he would have long since been replaced.

Yeah, it’s definitely not AI, probably rl maybe? I just don’t think he’s scum and we already had a probable miselim with Cyrus but at least that was to save you. I just think this is pointless. I don’t believe that any of the votes tjat counted to save you last night came from scum and that obviously includes CB.

I understand Pooky’s reasoning however because CB is taking up a slot but I just don’t see him either flipping scum here or giving us any particularly useful info.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

CB isn’t ellitelling btw. I just checked and their last post anywhere on this site was last Sunday. so they definitely aren’t lurking.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

We should let scum eat the GF bid, since they’re likely putting all of their pennies on Ninja, so I strongly recommend whomever gets tracker to use it to get an inno, because if scum has ninja than a tracker will just be wasted on them.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S&M does mastina's self-contradiction about her bidding concern you?

Explain it to me again please.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

We should let scum eat the GF bid, since they’re likely putting all of their pennies on Ninja, so I strongly recommend whomever gets tracker to use it to get an inno, because if scum has ninja than a tracker will just be wasted on them.

Gamma claimed he is bidding 499 on GF and VFP claimed he is bidding 500 on ninja

That’s very interesting. @Gamma why 499 and not 500? Well, in that case tracker should work on everyone but VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Marci, I asked you why you tr him and your answer could possibly affect my vote.

im so bad at showing my thought process for townreads i think but ill try

the strongest feeling came from all the auction detective stuff you've talked about with him, i don't quite see why he would not bid higher if he was scum, since he still would have a bit of money left at that point. (as scum he could've: bid a bit higher than 90 on d2 + not mention having rb at all)
191 even though i didnt really agree with his ssbm_kyouko scum stuff in this post, i think it could actually be townie, it seems like hes thinking through things well. im not sure but i dont think scum would usually accuse someone of scumslipping, i think if he was scum the word choice would've been left out.
248, his talking strategy stuff seems like hes just leading towards what he believes is best for town.
aand then when he just keeps talking the same strategy, no matter how much people show they dislike it. that seems town (i feel like scum would just let it drop so that they avoid major conflict with town.)
703 i dont think scum would make a post like this, it seems like a townie whos not happy with how things are currently going :/
836 868 like these

I doubt the cyrus scum reads because:
- it means scum cyrus didn't try to get on the Kitty wagon despite being active day end
- it means the above quoted post from cyrus, and similar ones, are acting rather than genuine and I don't get that sense; I think confusion is hard to fake and I think he'd be less confused about stuff if he was scum

@cyrus

if you're online, and town, and you haven't yet bid all your money, don't bid any more unless you're no longer the likeliest to be elimmed - if you're town and get elimmed it's better for us if you don't take any powers down with you

hes thinking for towns best interests, if he was scum the ending part wouldn't be there.
1011 i think its townie because like, go back and read around that and my gravedigger claim was just buried in there, ssbm_kyouko and vfp were having their chat around that time.. i think scum would easily just.. not talk in chat about it and let them flood it down even more so that its harder to find?
1084 likey thought process.

UNVOTE:

Gypyx views the deadline as whehever he wakes up and actually counts the votes right?

Who am I reading wrong then?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think town just votes CB. Why be afraid to self-preserve over a lurker actually? If you're town you just fuck the lurker, your contributions are worth more

VOTE: Imaginality

If this is red I need to reconsider Marci

I think Marci is town regardless. I don’t see why she kills Distance. And Distance may have possibly innoed her like SS theorized.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

VOTE: KittyTacky
Haven’t seen much from distance I didn’t like since my initial vote
Also, I wanna put this at 4 votes since we have other wagons at 2 but none at 3

For the record, having spent the time at deadline looking at D1 past my 167, if there

was

a busser, it was here.

Smoke and Mirrors was town manifest.

imaginality's COULD be scum but still looks town, plus there's other factors for why he'd be town.

IF there were a scum busser, it could only be Gamma.

VFP's willingness to vote for Cupcake Butterfly means that Cupcake Butterfly is sadly, probably a miss, but I don't have the ability to wagon VFP today and the alternative wagons to Cupcake Butterfly are so much worse so sadly, I'll have to hope and pray that Cupcake Butterfly actually is scum here but this is at least decent prep work for tomorrow in case Cupcake isn't.

VFP is still definitely scum here tho.

CB is very obviously flipping town, there was 0 resistance to that wagon.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Who am I reading wrong then?

Well townread-wise (you can substitute my name for yours, here), I'm currently at:

Smoke and Mirrors > marcistar > imaginality ~= Something_Smart > ssbm >>> Cupcake Butterfly (as of VFP voting them at end of day) > Gamma Emerald (as of

someone

needing to be scum and Gamma's vote on scum D1 being the most likely to be a bus) >>>>>>>> VFP.

Gamma is my strongest tr. Remember, I was recently buddies with him plus that’s not how scum!Alisae plays.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Does our vote even matter, since it’s pretty damned obvious we just limmed a townie who’s AFK. CB hasn’t been online since Sunday.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S&M does mastina's self-contradiction about her bidding concern you?

Explain it to me again please.

mastina saying she made a "damn high bid".
mastina saying all her bids are <= 200

even if

you start from the idea that we bid 125 on each role (and I have no idea why she makes that her default position), 200 is

Still not

"damn high". It reduces the other bids from 125 to 100.

Couldn’t that just be a difference in interpretation? I would vote Kyouku before Mastina.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Who am I reading wrong then?

Well townread-wise (you can substitute my name for yours, here), I'm currently at:

Smoke and Mirrors > marcistar > imaginality ~= Something_Smart > ssbm >>> Cupcake Butterfly (as of VFP voting them at end of day) > Gamma Emerald (as of

someone

needing to be scum and Gamma's vote on scum D1 being the most likely to be a bus) >>>>>>>> VFP.

Gamma is my strongest tr. Remember, I was recently buddies with him plus that’s not how scum!Alisae plays.

Well you asked me for who you were reading wrong and that'd be my feedback.

Do you seriously think scum!Alisae - in a game where you need votes for MO - intentionally pisses off most of the playerlist then reps out? Why does e do that?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Night 3 has ended...

no one has died !

day 4 starts now

Damn! I thought I actually had an inno. :/

[Smoke and Mirrors]

1-shot Jailkeeper - [REDACTED]

Night 3 has ended...
no one has died !
day 4 starts now

GET

FUCKED

, SCUM!!!

Did you REALLY think that, when there was such a fucking obvious protect two nights in a row and I had outed that I had made a top bid of 200 that you could snipe it from me and prevent me from saving marcistar?

Of COURSE I raised my bid above 200!

But by how much?

Too bad you redacted that bid, eh?? Guess you'll never know!

So I have some unspecified amount below 300.

To be clear and unambiguous:

I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.

This is pretty damn transparently a protection as I figured using my role to protect was easier than using it to block with two scum alive. (If we had only one scum alive I was going to holster, let imaginality use his roleblock, announce I own a jailkeep and select a target, but with two scum alive and the obvious protect to make I needed to save marcistar.)

VOTE: VFP.

Oh then I actually did get an inno. \o/

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.

i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.

I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.

i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.

mastina

, who do u think vfps partner would be?

gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.

smoke

, who do u think?

imaginality

, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)

I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.

I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S&M, VFP, Imaginality: why do you think Distance was NKed? Read his ISO, consider the gamestate D2, what do you think?

I think because he probably had an inno on Marci or voting VFP?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

1292 did raise my hackles a bit too.
I'm not convinced scum openly buys ninja for 500 on D2 though.

On the flip side I'm still wondering whether we get five town on the D2 VFP wagon if VFP is town. Wagon was {Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko} so if you and mastina are town then to my mind it's highly likely ssbm or VFP are scum rather than both town.
Hmm...
VOTE: Unvote

we still got some time to think about it, idk if i would be confident in a ssbm_kyouko vote though.. do you think they're scummy?

I think it was obvious that scum targeted Marci and Kyouku didn’t go anywhere.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Good job Mastina but I thought you’d jk us but it’s good since we got an inno on Kyouku.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.

i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.

I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.

i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.

mastina

, who do u think vfps partner would be?

gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.

smoke

, who do u think?

imaginality

, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)

I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.

I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.

Well this is why I wanted s&m to claim last, I figured out they won tracker, but if they tracked me it doesnt matter what order we claim in anymore I think.

We really didn’t expect to but clearring you, likely points to VFP being scum because you gave him your MO and yoi dying would have looked really bad for him. You were clearly not targeted so scum could push you for not dying.

So I think my solve of Kitty/Imaginality/VFP may have been correct.

VOTE: VFP

So he can’t use his 2nd ninja shot.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don't like popcorn but I'm fine with going first.

D1 Misty put $300 on cop and did not get it.
D2 $500 on watcher and got it.
N2 did not act.
N3 watched Smoke & Mirrors, no visits.

S&M should choose the rest of the claim order, I think.

Makes sense since no kill happened and Mastina jk’d Marci.

I think Kyouku already did. We don’t need to bother with Mastina or Marci.

So probably Imaginality then Gamma, I guess.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oh forgot VFP.

VFP
Imaginality
Gamma

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I'll just make this my last post since I won't get on for end of day anyway.

Gamma and Mastina are basically locktown.
I believe SS here and most likely town. Midday watcher was cheap, so I doubt scum went too high here expecting a 500 bid.
Smoke and Mirrors is more or less town, just lost.

That leaves SSBM, who is scum.
Then work out the last one between Marci and imaginality.
I'd favour Marci who was most likely blocked from killing. Marci was less likely to be tracked than SSBM (although plausible to watch)
You can argue that imaginality SSBM/imaginality kill Marci, but with a town watcher in this situation, I doubt that ever happens.

Someone who "knows" Marci's scum game, I'd say it's probably this.

Either listen to me and win, or just do what you have been doing all game and lose.
If I flip town, of course.

No, I will be town’s hero.

I'm down to sheep this if VFP flips town O.o

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

[Smoke and Mirrors]

hmm, i did think of the possibility of me being rbed was to deny results, but then i thought scum wouldn't no kill with both me and smoke still alive

is this like mastinas scum game..?

No, I bet the game on Mastina!town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

@mod, if Kyouku visited Marci, would we have gotten the same result?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

We are definitely not scum here.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 4.3

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - VFP
Something_Smart (2) ssbm_Kyouko - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (2) - mastina - smoke and mirrors

not voting (2) - Everyone else

day 4 ends in (expired on 2021-07-07 05:21:30)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

2-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point is 200

1-shot Neighborizer the top bid at mid point is 0

2-shot Neighborizer the top bid at mid point is 0

2-shot Hitman the top bid at mid point is 0

Sorry guys I haven’t been online, that was Pooky posting, if you hadn’t guessed.

I’m super overgamed af rn. :/

[Smoke and Mirrors]

yeah I think S_S is probably town here
VOTE: VFP
I wanna know what nancy is thinking in all this but atp this is fine because as I said, VFP's CB vote was the one that bothers me the most

Idk but I still think Mastina, you and SS are town but having doubts again on VFP. I know we get a no resuts on Kyouku but if he tracked jk’d Marci, would that have nullified our inno?

Idk, anymore.

I think Marci’s town but I suppose it’s possible that no kill could have happened if she’s the onr who made it? Probably tinfoiling though, because I still think she’s town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

I'll let you in on a secret: the $200 mid-day bid on tracker? That's me.

(You'd think the fact that I've been bidding $200 on items each day would be a dead giveaway that the 200 on tracker was me. Just because I ended up bidding more than 200 on the jailkeeper doesn't mean I'm not going to keep bidding 200 on things.)

I believe you but then how did we get it? We didn’t expect to because we couldn’t bid anymore than that because we already spent 300 on 1 shot AD.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I believe SS and Gamma bid 499 on GF correct?

If town, he wouldn’t have any money for a visit. I guess CB was right on Alisae and “who’s the partner?” just sounds like you’re guilty. :/

VOTE: Gamma

You bid 499 on GF hoping town would blow their wad on it.

My obvious guess is probably Kyouku.

Unless you and Imaginality are doing some kind of bizarro scum theatre?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

Why does SS lie? You flip town, he’s next and no bus drivers or redirectors were available to bid on.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

Why does SS lie? You flip town, he’s next and no bus drivers or redirectors were available to bid on.

when does game end? is it when scum = town?

That’s usually the case, parity.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The Setup

The Basics

>

This will be a 10:3 Open Setup with every player starting as a Vanilla.

>

Mafia have daytalk and are allowed to use discord provided they all agree on it.

>

Mafia have a factional ability to hide the price sold for an item that can be used once per day phase either for the midday or day end update.

>

Town players will begin the game with a wallet of 500Ð and Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

>

Money cannot be transferred.

>

Players may use multiple abilities a night however can only use one shot of each ability maximum.

>

Players will flip with their alignment but not the roles they've obtained.

Auctions

>

Four limited shot roles from the pool of twenty available are selected randomly every day and auctioned off.

>

Bids are made inside your personal PT during the day phase and the player with the highest bid at day end will receive that role.

>

You may only bid the money remaining inside your wallet, you may increase a bid on an item but cannot use that money elsewhere.

>

You must outbid the current highest bidder to win the item. Losing bids are refunded at day end.

>

The winner of each auctioned item are not revealed publicly, just the bid itself.

>

There will be a mid day update 1 day into the day phase where the highest bid per item are revealed but not the winner again.

>

Items auctioned are removed from the potential list the following day.

>

Bids will no longer be eligible within the last 10 minutes of each day phase. Executed players can win an auctioned item.

>

Auctions will no longer take place after day four.

Marketplace Owner

>

Players will vote for a Marketplace Owner on top of the vote to execute in the thread during day one.

>

The player with the most votes at deadline will be elected the Marketplace Owner.

>

In the event of a tied vote upon deadline, the winner will be randomized.

>

The elected player privately submits an order to increase the odds of four items being up for auction the following day phase by 400%.

>

The elected player has this ability every night phase.

>

The elected player must designate a replacement in case they die, this is revealed publicly upon their death.

>

Marketplace Owners are no longer needed after day four.

Role PMs

Spoiler: Town PM

Vanilla townie

Welcome ! You are a

Vanilla Townie

You have no power other than your voice and your vote

You win if the town survives to see all of the threats to them dead, you may find the game thread here

your private topic is here

Spoiler: Scum PM

Mafia Goon

Welcome ! You are a

Mafia Goon

You are a member of the Mafia, along with [PLAYER] and [PLAYER], you may talk to them here at any time, and you can also perform the factional nightkill

You also posess a factional ability to to hide the price sold for an item, this can be used once per day phase for either the mid day or day end update.

You win if the mafia survives to see all of the threats to them dead, or nothing can prevent this from happening, you may find the game thread here

your private topic is here

Spoiler: Marketplace Owner PM

marketplace owner

You are now the Marketplace Owner!

Congratulations! You are have either been elected or assigned the role of Marketplace Owner.
You have the ability to select up to 4 items every night phase to increase the odds of it being up for auction the following day phase by 400%. Please do this by bolding

Enhance: Ability Name

for each item you choose.
You must also select who you wish to have this role assigned to in the event of your demise, you are able to have this person changed at any time up until your death via bolding

Assign: PlayerName

inside your PT.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Actually, it looks like I’m wrong. Apparently scum has the kill all of the townies - one way or the other. I was telling Pooky in discord, I don’t think we win this, now I actually have hope.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s usually the case, parity.

wouldnt we hit that if its a miselim + a successful nk?

I was wrong, according to the OP. So if we lim Gamma!scum, then scum can’t kill me, SS, you and whomever is town between Imaginality and Kyouku?

But Gamma was totally down with Imaginality lim. so Kyouku seems most likely.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

do u remember what the claims for bidding on cop were? i could only find 2 claims but im not sure if theres more

I think we bid 365 and didn’t get it. We spent everything on 1 shot AD=300 + 1 shot tracker=200.

Speaking of, Gypyx just informed me that my “inno” on Kyouku was meaningless if he actually visited you.

I think it’s Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku.

Kyouku could push Gamma because prior to SS guilty, I tr him, so he was never in any danger.

Mastina kill confirms Marci town and probably was the intended NK, so us/SS/Marci=all town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

Why does SS lie? You flip town, he’s next and no bus drivers or redirectors were available to bid on.

it's mylo today
so a fake guilty is what scum would want to try to pull off

How is it Mylo? And sorry but I don’t see why SS would lie here?

Your response, “who’s the partner”? As opposed to “that’s a lie”, screams caught scum to me.

If SS had said that about town!me, my immediate response would be to freak out, call him a bloody liar and try to lim him into the stratosphere, not “who’s the partner?”

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

This isn’t a townie response.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Also if SS was hypothetically lying, he wouldn’t have guiltied you > Kyouku. You weren’t even on his radar. First time since D1, I think we’re actually getting another scumflip.

Best thing I did since voting Kitty out, was saving SS.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think we bid 365 and didn’t get it. We spent everything on 1 shot AD=300 + 1 shot tracker=200.

tyty

im trying to use all my brain power to figure out numbers and whats more likely do you think distance couldve won 2shot ad?

I have no clue. SS seemed to think he got an inno on you and that’s why he died, so probably cop, because no one has claimed it.

Didn’t Imaginality claim 2 shot AD?

@Imaginality?

Hopefully he clears this up, so I don’t have to reread his ISO.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (0)
imaginality (3) - Smoke And Mirrors - Gamma Emerald - VFP
marcistar (0)
VFP (2) - mastina - marcistar

not voting (5) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

Prodding Cupcake Butterfly

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

votecount 3.4

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (3) - Mastina - VFP - Marcistar
ssbm_Kyouko (1)
Something_Smart (1) - Imaginality
imaginality (2) - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko
marcistar (0)
VFP (1)

not voting (2) - Everyone else

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

[/quote]


Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku

Imaginality and Gamma don’t look like buddies here based on this.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Whichever 2/3 of me/SS/Marci survive tonight, please vote out Kyouku tomorrow. VCA spews Kyouku as Gamma buddy and Imaginality as unaligned.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 1.execution

Gamma Emerald (0)
KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (1) KittyTacky,
Cupcake Butterfly (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Flea The Magician (0)
Mistyx (0)
cyrus62 (1) Flea The Magician
imaginality (1) Cyrus62
marcistar (0)
Distance (1) Marcistar
VFP (2) Mistyx ; ssbm_Kyouko

not voting (5) - Everyone else
[/b]

KittyTacky has been executed ! They were...

Spoiler:

Mafia Goon !

Night 1 starts now and ends in (expired on 2021-06-23 02:14:45)

This is why Kyouku was so convinced of a bus because he knew Gamma bussed Kitty. lololol

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

This isn’t a townie response.

then what would be, huh?

I explained already.

A) SS had no reason to lie about you since you weren’t even on his radat and I told you what I would respond to a fake guilty and B) “that’s fake, who’s the partner”? wouldn’t be it.”

Game’s solved, it’s Kitty/you/and most likely Kyouku, since you and Kyouku had Imaginality as a serious cw to CB by only one vote.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

What were you hoping to find when you chose to watch S&M

The NK, obviously. They were one of my top townreads, they're both strong players, and they had money unaccounted for.

Who do you think tries to kill S&M N3? Not necessarily who would perform the action, but who has motive to have the scumteam kill them?

Yes, why would scum kill us when one member of the team had us completely pocketed?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

Why does SS lie? You flip town, he’s next and no bus drivers or redirectors were available to bid on.

it's mylo today
so a fake guilty is what scum would want to try to pull off

How is it Mylo? And sorry but I don’t see why SS would lie here?

It's melo because we're down to 6 right?

S&M, marci, me, Gamma, SS, ssbm

If we elim wrong today, scum successfully NK ( they have hitman presumably so I can't block them, nor can a hypothetical town doc) and we're down to 4 players tomorrow and can't out-majority scum.

There is

only one scenario

we win if that's the case: both remaining townies are present at daystart and slam votes onto the same scum player before scum can both slam votes onto a townie. In that case we'd win the tiebreak at day end. Not impossible but not something we can take for granted either.

SS wouldn’t fake a guilty on Gamma, he wasn’t even sr him.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

i think distance being confrontational out of the gate is >rand town

VOTE: VFP
HEAL: Mistyx

idk what the current vc is but this is where im leaning

i dont think VFP has really done anything towny and didnt like their handling of gamma post rep in

I didn’t really reflect on this much, but I do think there might be something to the fact his vibe is almost completely different in how he interacts with me here vs. his interactions with me in mini 2213
He was way more jovial and sociable in that game, here he feels stilted
Not calling him definitely scum because I’m pretty sure he tries reading me like this in that game and missed the mark but knowing him I think the mood change isn’t a good sign

Can you expand on the mood change? Something feels wrong about the Kitty wagon to me and I do still think VFP's MO choice was suspect. If you and I vote VFP it ties them at 3-3 I think, and I feel like Kitty is a bit of a compromise for most. I know I'd be alright with Kitty as the content is just not there but it feels too much like a policy elim and I think we can do better today.

Kyouku trying to flip votes from Kitty to VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

Why does SS lie? You flip town, he’s next and no bus drivers or redirectors were available to bid on.

it's mylo today
so a fake guilty is what scum would want to try to pull off

How is it Mylo? And sorry but I don’t see why SS would lie here?

It's melo because we're down to 6 right?

S&M, marci, me, Gamma, SS, ssbm

If we elim wrong today, scum successfully NK ( they have hitman presumably so I can't block them, nor can a hypothetical town doc) and we're down to 4 players tomorrow and can't out-majority scum.

There is

only one scenario

we win if that's the case: both remaining townies are present at daystart and slam votes onto the same scum player before scum can both slam votes onto a townie. In that case we'd win the tiebreak at day end. Not impossible but not something we can take for granted either.

How can we elim wrong? SS has a hard guilty on Gamma.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

for me, its down to 2 of gamma/something_smart/ssbm_kyouko

ssbm_kyouko by far seems the safest as im having doubt between gamma/something_smart right now.

i feel like i might be being dumb rn t_t being in this position is so hard

I have no clue. SS seemed to think he got an inno on you and that’s why he died, so probably cop, because no one has claimed it..

im thinking deeply of this tho, why wouldn't distance have just straight up claim the inno on me then..? cop only 1 shot, he has no reason to hide his action from us.

What if Imaginality is the partner and not Kyouku? I believe SS and I believe the guilty.

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

I believe him and I think Gamma’s caught.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

Why in the fuck would we even consider limming SS?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

Agreed, and there could even be both scum in there if SS is bussing.

@town

if we elim wrong today be ready to slam votes on the other one at start of day tomorrow

Why would he bus?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

This isn’t a townie response.

then what would be, huh?

I explained already.

A) SS had no reason to lie about you since you weren’t even on his radat and I told you what I would respond to a fake guilty and B) “that’s fake, who’s the partner”? wouldn’t be it.”

Game’s solved, it’s Kitty/you/and most likely Kyouku, since you and Kyouku had Imaginality as a serious cw to CB by only one vote.

the partner hunting idea come in from the fact that I don't entirely expect to get through this day alive so I'm moreso trying to figure things out for the roleblocker (unless there is none)

You bid 499 on GF correct?

So how does rb affect SS’ result?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

So my notes were really thinking mastina was scum, so her flip kinda trashes what I had to say for the most part.

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She claimed a jk on Marci and there was no kill yesterday.

Scum obviously wants to kill Marci and can’t if Mastina continues to jk her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

What if Imaginality is the partner and not Kyouku? I believe SS and I believe the guilty.

i dont think that would be the case

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

ahh im not sure im so so scared i dont want us to vote wrong t_t
im in thinking too much mode

I believe SS isn’t lying. Sure we can take a chance Kyouku is the buddy but why when we have an actual hard guilty on Gamma?

I believe SS, I don’t believe Gamma.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She was clearly town and (essentially) confirmed to have the tracker.

You mean jk, we had the tracker.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

You mean jk, we had the tracker.

No, I mean the 2-shot tracker that was won yesterday for $200 after mastina publicly announced that she bid $200 on it.

Oh that explains it then. I was wondering.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

not sure
who would have wanted mastina dead? that's probably the best lead

SS watched her and saw only you visit.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Gamma visited mastina.

VOTE: Gamma

It's a watcher result. Not saying whether anyone else visited her, because there's no reason to out that information-- Gamma shouldn't be able to visit at all if town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

the bids have been won for the following amounts

cop - [REDACTED]
doctor - 250
hitman 426
roleblocker - 410

I think whomever won the cop is dead because they had to have bid more than 365 for it and scum likely thought Distance was cop. Why else kill him?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I didn't explicitly say that only he visited, but it doesn't matter; from his POV, I have to be lying, and therefore scum. But I also can't have won the hitman (even if I were scum) because I already spent 500.

Yes you actually can because VFP won the 2 shot ninja.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I know S_S is scum but iirc mastina TRed him

If you honestly thought that, that would have been your first reaction and you would already be voting him.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I know S_S is scum

but iirc mastina TRed him

Why the hedge here? It sounds like you don’t actually believe what you’re saying.

There are no bd/redirectors. You had no reason to visit if town.

You know he isn’t lying. You’re scum.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Yes you actually can because VFP won the 2 shot ninja.

Huh? I don't follow.

If anyone else had visited Mastina, you’d have seen it because VFP won the 2 shot ninja right?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I know S_S is scum

but iirc mastina TRed him

Why the hedge here? It sounds like you don’t actually believe what you’re saying.

There are no bd/redirectors. You had no reason to visit if town.

You know he isn’t lying. You’re scum.

You obviously don’t believe 1463 Gamma. If I “KNOW” a player is scum, I don’t hedge. You either know he’s scum or you don’t and 1463 reads like you know he isn’t,

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oh I think we're talking about different things, my bad.

Yeah, I would see whoever visited mastina. I was just saying that I don't need to say if anyone else visited, because seeing Gamma visit is enough to know he's scum (and saying would provide more info to scum).

Gamma is flailing caught scum. I don’t know how everyone isn’t seeing it.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

not sure
who would have wanted mastina dead? that's probably the best lead

I know S_S is scum but iirc mastina TRed him

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oh I think we're talking about different things, my bad.

Yeah, I would see whoever visited mastina. I was just saying that I don't need to say if anyone else visited, because seeing Gamma visit is enough to know he's scum (and saying would provide more info to scum).

Gamma is flailing caught scum. I don’t know how everyone isn’t seeing it.

Seriously, jesus fuck people!

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I know S_S is scum

but iirc mastina TRed him

Why the hedge here? It sounds like you don’t actually believe what you’re saying.

There are no bd/redirectors. You had no reason to visit if town.

You know he isn’t lying. You’re scum.

You obviously don’t believe 1463 Gamma. If I “KNOW” a player is scum, I don’t hedge. You either know he’s scum or you don’t and 1463 reads like you know he isn’t,

[Smoke and Mirrors]

i think Gamma and S&M just double bussed D1. VOTE: Gamma

If you’re actually town here, you’re probably never getting a paragon. I never ever kill Mastina here. But you’re probably Gamma’s buddy.

Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that. S&M's attempt to shut off debate at the start of today also rubs me wrong but that might be wrong town.

VOTE: Something_Smart

You people are so bad at this. If we lose, don’t blame me.

I still think Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku and even if you bungle this, I still want props for getting this right,

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Quick End

I think this is solved

If you’re not Gamma’s buddy then you have possibly the worst reads in any game ever.

Did you not read where Mastina who has tons and tons of meta on me - locktowned me? SS too. Both of those players as well as CB (who also has meta on me) correctly tr me.

So in a world where you’re actually town, I hope you feel really shitty post-game.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?

I obviously didn’t. I thought he was clear because I got the result that he didn’t go anywhere but after I asked Gypyx if If he visited Marci how that impacted my results, he said the inno is meaningless.

I’m locking it in Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku is the team, which means I got 2 scum right and please don’t gamethrow by voting out town.

Kyouku is bussing. That’s why he’s pushing me as Gamma buddy. No one in their right mind buys a double Kitty bus

.

Kitty just outed Gamma as his buddy and us as town.

Us/SS/Marci/you are town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

While I'm at it I'll vote VFP. I feel like as the default candidate in a slow game working on plurality like this it's easy for as little as 1 scum to make town!Kitty go through easily.

I also like misty better than smoke/Imaginality at this point, and still am harboring suspicion about VFP's heal votes for MO early game.

VOTE: VFP

This puts him to 2, not sure what happens in a tie in plurality

Kyouku actively tried to save his buddy on D1 by trying to switch the wagon to VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

mastina

, who do u think vfps partner would be?

I honestly don't know. It's not Smoke & Mirrors; it's not you.

From there, towniest to least townie, I would go:

Something_Smart ~= imaginality > ssbm >>> Gamma Emerald >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> VFP

But my hope is that we can eliminate VFP today, VFP flips scum, and imaginality can give us an extra elimination with his roleblock, or an extra conftown if not. (That said the presence of a hitman means that we may have trouble there. I'm hoping that the scum cannot pick up both the tracker and the hitman so that one goes to town and that town player can use it to ensure redundancy with imaginality.)

Obviously we know she was wrong on VFP but she has both us and Marci as locktown. which is why Kyouku has to be scum here. Why else would he be voting Gamma and calling me his buddy?

Kyouku knows that everyone else is town but him and Gamma obviously,

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Gypyx replied to me. I can't quote him but you can all send him the same question I did to confirm if you like.

The question is along the lines of:

what happens in this situation?
X tracks Y
Y kills Z
W jails Z
Does X receive 'no result' or 'Y visits Z' (I actually asked him if 'Y didn't go anywhere' because I didn't go anywhere all game and that is what was on my mind)

And Gypyx told me X would see Y visiting Z. But S&M said I didn't go anywhere/

S&M lied about their soft Inno (not hard because there are still 2 scum alive) on me being an "inno" based on Marci being jailed by Mastina the night S&M saw me go nowhere.

Quick End

I think this is solved

Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?

If I had any doubts on Gamma!scum/SS!town, Kyouku confirmed it for me.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

does gamma ever play this way as town? im lowkey convinced hes scum now-

The way he reacted to the guilty wasn’t townie and he only votes SS now because he realizes it’s suspicious not too. Imaginality is probably town fooled by him and Kyouku left no doubt by bussing him and pushing us as his buddy. That’s how I know. Kyouku wouldn’t be voting Gamma and pushing an inane double bus garbage if he either one were town.

Kyouku scumclaimed. It’s blatant scum distancing.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

I know S_S is scum but iirc mastina TRed him

If Gamma

knows

SS is scum then why mention Mastina tr him?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Even if cop's not dead, as per my early game reasoning they absolutely shouldn't have waited this long to claim their result so I would not believe any cop claim now.

From the alive players, the bids I know of:
Imaginality: won 1-shot RB for 410, won 1-shot neighourizer 90, total 500
Ssbm: won 1-shot hitman for 426
S&M: won 1-shot AD 300, won 200, total 500
Gamma: won GF 499
Something_Smart: won 2-shot watcher 500
marcistar: won 2-shot gravedigger 225

The only players who could have won the 301 hitman are:
ssbm, marci, Gamma

So if Gamma flips town, and we manage to cram votes on Something_Smart tomorrow so we don't insta-lose, the other scum is either ssbm or marci

That said, I do think most likely it's Gamma + someone. And agree Gamma's vote should already be on Something_Smart.

The main doubt I have is why would scum not hide the watcher bid D3 and the hitman bid D4, if they weren't using them to frame Gamma?

tbh in this case I think the team is probably S_S and kyouko
I don't think the game plays out this way if marci is scum, so many different things I feel like should be different if that's the case
VOTE: ssbm_kyouko

kyouko is pretty much always scum here, no?

feels like kyouko just slipped that I'm town

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Consider this also though: Tracker was not obscured yesterDay at the end because scum wanted to know who won it. This points to town!Marci because the only town!player that could outbid Mastina was Marci. By not obscuring, they could see clearly who won Tracker.

If we consider that S_S is town here then maybe scum didn't believe S_S holstered the first Night and thought he was out of shots. Otherwise they should have obscured tracker and 50-50ed between Mastina/Marci so that S_S would have a lower chance of Watching the correct target. Was that post by S&M about the jailkeeper continuing to protect Marci a slip? did scumteam of S&M/Gamma think Mastina would be able to jail again so they bought hitman and killed Mastina with it?

i think Gamma and S&M just double bussed D1. VOTE: Gamma

Quick End

I think this is solved

Coincidence that Gamma and Kyouku are hard distancing each other but Gamma votes SS?

Like it’s so beyond obvious that Gamma and Kyouku are buddies. Kyouku’s sr on us is obviously disingenuous.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The way he reacted to the guilty wasn’t townie and he only votes SS now because he realizes it’s suspicious not too. Imaginality is probably town fooled by him and Kyouku left no doubt by bussing him and pushing us as his buddy. That’s how I know. Kyouku wouldn’t be voting Gamma and pushing an inane double bus garbage if he either one were town.

Kyouku scumclaimed. It’s blatant scum distancing.

mmhmm i think theyre most likely the scum team, i dont like ssbm_kyoukos postings today it feels like hes just trying to push anyone he can.

maybe they were preparing to sacrifice gamma for awhile..?

Yeah and he’s clearly not sorting and the interactions between those two scream buddies to me. And it’s still pings me that he tried to stop Kitty elim.

My theory was one scum between VFP and Kyouku because MO Kyouku is still alive but Flea died N1, then Distance N2, to frame VFP obviously.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

I know S_S is scum but iirc mastina TRed him

If Gamma

knows

SS is scum then why mention Mastina tr him?

Because I’m trying to do NKA

Why would SS guilty you > Kyouku? He was his #1 sr not you?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

votecount 5.2

Gamma Emerald (4) : Marcistar - Something_Smart - Smoke And Mirrors - ssbm_Kyouko
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
ssbm_Kyouko (0)
Something_Smart (1) Imaginality - Gamma Emerald
imaginality (0)
marcistar (0)

not voting (0)

day 5 ends in (expired on 2021-07-12 09:42:30)

Players may vote for the day to end early by posting

"Quick End"

(1/4 required)

I just want to say that anyone who thinks Kyouku is town should check us because we have no money, so we ain’t going anywhere.

Quick End

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The way he reacted to the guilty wasn’t townie and he only votes SS now because he realizes it’s suspicious not too. Imaginality is probably town fooled by him and Kyouku left no doubt by bussing him and pushing us as his buddy. That’s how I know. Kyouku wouldn’t be voting Gamma and pushing an inane double bus garbage if he either one were town.

Kyouku scumclaimed. It’s blatant scum distancing.

mmhmm i think theyre most likely the scum team, i dont like ssbm_kyoukos postings today it feels like hes just trying to push anyone he can.

maybe they were preparing to sacrifice gamma for awhile..?

Who knows? I think without the guilty Gamma could have potentially endgamed.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Misty didn’t do anything scummy.

You are alleging that scum!Kyouku was find with letting her “buddy” S_S hang yesterday, had I not flipped the votes. Yes?

@Imaginality

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I can see Gamma + ssbm if Gamma flips scum, but can also see SS + ssbm

Why would SS guilty you > Kyouku? He was his #1 sr not you?

because kyouko is S_S's buddy?

Yoi said that right after Imaginality did, too funny.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Misty didn’t do anything scummy.

You are alleging that scum!Kyouku was find with letting her “buddy” S_S hang yesterday, had I not flipped the votes. Yes?

@Imaginality

@Gamma, did you not see this?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Btw, regarding checking S&M: they can still have hitman if Gamma bought the 1-shot AD and relayed his result to S&M in the PT. Role blocking S&M is not a clear. The only player that cant have hitman now is S_S unless he and Gamma swapped claims. Nobody can be cleared because anyone could have bought hitman if scum, and even if it is unlikely that S_S or S&M swapped claims, it could have happened.

Mechanically we can only know at least one of S_S and Gamma are scum

You are flat out lying here. You know damn well, we spent 300 on 1 shot AD and the remaining 200 on 1 shot tracker.

Yoi will do just about anything - including ignoring actual facts to bs shade me, won’t you?

Imaginality confirmed my 1 shot AD and I don’t recall you questioning my 1 shot tracker yesterday either.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Misty didn’t do anything scummy.

You are alleging that scum!Kyouku was find with letting her “buddy” S_S hang yesterday, had I not flipped the votes. Yes?

@Imaginality

@Gamma, did you not see this?

a LOT of people were okay with S_S dying
in fact you're pretty much the only one who wasn't aside from me and mastina

do I have it wrong and it's S_S and S&M?

You taking the objectively scummiest player by play out of the equation isn’t going to change my mind. I believe SS has a real guilty on you and Kyouku is off the charts scummy. I also know there’s no way in hell you actually believe I’m scum here, so you and Kyouku just keep erasing all possible doubt. Goos job.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Btw, regarding checking S&M: they can still have hitman if Gamma bought the 1-shot AD and relayed his result to S&M in the PT. Role blocking S&M is not a clear. The only player that cant have hitman now is S_S unless he and Gamma swapped claims. Nobody can be cleared because anyone could have bought hitman if scum, and even if it is unlikely that S_S or S&M swapped claims, it could have happened.

Mechanically we can only know at least one of S_S and Gamma are scum

Anyone swapping claims is pretty risky with the AD's going around. Even without them, it screws you over if the person with the money dies first.

This is how we know Kyouku is lying here. Imaginality already confirmed my 1 shot AD results on him.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think the point is, if you are scum, you could be partners with someone else who got the 1-shot AD. I confirmed I bid 90, it doesn't mean it confirms you were the AD rather than your scum buddy.
It seems like an unnecessary risk to do this unless scum also won watcher (otherwise watcher could have seen it wasn't you who visited me). But ssbm is correct that it's technically possible.

Why would scum!anyone even want the 1 shot AD? That would be like the stupidest scum ever.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I believe SS is town or I never would have tried to save him, so if anyone wants to link us, I’m fine with thqt because I know we’re town and I strongly believe both that SS is as well and he did in fact get a real guilty on Gamma.

I also believe you and Marci are town as well.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think the point is, if you are scum, you could be partners with someone else who got the 1-shot AD. I confirmed I bid 90, it doesn't mean it confirms you were the AD rather than your scum buddy.
It seems like an unnecessary risk to do this unless scum also won watcher (otherwise watcher could have seen it wasn't you who visited me). But ssbm is correct that it's technically possible.

Why would scum!anyone even want the 1 shot AD? That would be like the stupidest scum ever.

You make some really good points and then there's stuff like this. Why would scum want 1-shot AD? To appear town by getting a PR and using it in a townlike way.

Sure but we spent 300 on that. We actually didn’t specify 1 shot but Gypyx interpreted it that way, so we just went with it.

My obvious point being, hypothetical scum!us would be far better off spending our pennies on something far more useful that would also look town and help a scum wincon.

If someone has an rb, feel free to use it on us, if there is actually still any room for doubt.

If Kyouku was actually town here, why not just say, S & M you’re wrong on me? Instead he was pretty much grasping at straws and sr every single thing pointing to us town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Quick End

I don't think anything is changing now and if Gamma flips town, this is a better time of day for me to be available to slam a vote on SS at day start (if I'm not NKed).

If Gamma does flip scum I'll roleblock Something_Smart, who seems the least likely to have hitman.

Shouldn’t you rb Kyouku, so he can’t kill anyone or is hitman like a strongman?

If Gamma flips scum which I believe he will then you already have one confitown in SS and since we have no money, you could confirm us town, unless Kyouku no kills?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

The mod confirmed to me my roleblock fails if it's used on someone who's using hitman. I mentioned this earlier in the game at some point

:/

So that means it’s wasted on Kyouku then.

Too bad you don’t have a rolestop instead of a roleblock.

So Kyouku almost certainly has it and will of course lie about that.

I haven’t paid that much attention to the mech stuff. I initially didn’t have a clue what AD was.

Pooky was supposed to help with that but it never came up.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I have the 1-shot hitman from d1 still. By your own admission you tracked me and saw me go nowhere when Marci has jailed. If I were scum and not on Marci's team I would have used my strongman that night to shoot through jailkeeper.

But yes, I have only spent 426 so scum!me has the money to have bought the 2-shot hitman as well.

Yes but I asked the mod, if that was actually valid if you visited Marci and he said it wasn’t. Iow, my “inno” is null and void if you visited Marci. I figured when I saw this post, you were planning to NK Imaginality and frame us.

VOTE: Kyouku

And don’t insult our intelligence here. You didn’t use the hitman because you obviously didn’t think you needed it. You’re not clear, the mod confirmed that and SS knows 100% this is my obvtown meta here as did Mastina who had me as her #1 tr.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

i think gamma and kyouko are town

i think forming reads so quick is nai but i dislike it.

You only dislike it because we aren’t sheep that will listen to your weak cries for power

A bit intense, Gamma.

Out of everybody currently with a heal vote, which slot brings you the most confidence?

Kyouko, for potentially peculiar reasoning
He mentioned a fake guilty that he pulled in another game, and I believe he’s truly remorseful for that. As such I believe he’d put extra thought into his choices compared to someone else who wasn’t trying to rebound from something like that.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

HEAL: Flea

If enough votes on CB happen, I can switch.

Why do you NOT want Kyouko?

Oh lookie here, where Gamma hard pushes me to switch my vote for MO from Flea to Kyouku. I’m sure that’s a complete coincidence


Not.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Btw, regarding checking S&M: they can still have hitman if Gamma bought the 1-shot AD and relayed his result to S&M in the PT.

Role blocking S&M is not a clear. The only player that cant have hitman now is S_S unless he and Gamma swapped claims. Nobody can be cleared because anyone could have bought hitman if scum, and even if it is unlikely that S_S or S&M swapped claims, it could have happened.

Mechanically we can only know at least one of S_S and Gamma are scum

I have the 1-shot hitman from d1 still

. By your own admission you tracked me and saw me go nowhere when Marci has jailed. If I were scum and not on Marci's team I would have used my strongman that night to shoot through jailkeeper.

But yes, I have only spent 426 so scum!me has the money to have bought the 2-shot hitman as well.

Oh scum!Kyouku caught in a lie. Implies we can’t be cleared because we MIGHT have hitman, knowing all thr while that she actually had it. How is this a townie thought ever?

Kyouku is confiscum.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S&M was also pretty vehemently against the idea that the Kitty wagon was a bus and look what it turned out to be.

Yes, because - unlike you - actually didn’t know Gamma was scum. I also didn’t try to save my buddy Kitty and try to lim town.

I’ve caught you. Gamma would never have pushed so hard for me to vote you for MO, if you weren’t his buddy.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I'm not sure if I'll be able to post any more after a little bit. I think it's best to leave my vote on nobody. I very much don't want to kill S&M; I think ssbm and marci should crossvote and S&M should decide, but if you guys want to petition the mod for an extension so I can provide more input you can.

SS, I honestly don’t think it’s Marci and if we lim her we could lose. Why does Gamma push so hard for me to vote Kyouku for MO, if he’s not her buddy?

Kyouku’s behaviour isn’t town. She’s been trying to frame me since D1 and I think your theory about Distance getting an inno on Marci is probably correct and the reason he died.

I bet the game on Kyouku!scum. Kyouku blatantly lied about us having hitman and she makes that post out of the blue, claiming that she actually had it, because she probably switched her kill target from you to Imaginality.

Also Gamma and Kyouku were clearly distancing and Gamma only started to push me once I put the kibbosh on a you/Kyouku scum team.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

Same would apply to the VFP-me scum pairing some people have been mooting. Or me-Gamma for that matter.

S&M, does ssbm's point change your views on me and/or VFP?

The fact that I misunderstood your 90 bid, means you weren’t being hypocritical about wanting town to bid high.

If it isn’t you/VFP than someone has been pocketing me really really good.

Here S&M points out that they are concerned that they have been pocketed if it's not VFP or Imaginality. This could be preparing to inno Gamma with tracker, and if anyone questioned S&M on the Gamma track they could say Gamma might have been pocketing them so they wanted to check him. It makes sense from a town perspective to try to use tracker to catch the more townread one of the scumteam, because if scum knows S&M won tracker by doing the math on AD plus Tracker, they know to send the scum that is in the trackers TRs to do the kill. That would be a town!S&M reasoning that scum!S&M could use to justify the targeting.

I don't understand it.
I was just going to say that SSBM is most likely town, but if they picked the 4 roles then that's a townlock.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

Gylyx doesn't do a VC on a flip normally I think.

VOTE: MistyxVOTE:

I also don't think Marci is scum here.

I get to enhance 4 roles which makes them 400% more likely (I think this means 5x as likely but the setup may be worded incorrectly) to appear. I enhanced the 1-shot BP and also enhanced the 3 2-shot roles that appeared today. The 1-shot AD came in with it's normal chance, but I wanted it for tomorrow because it only.gives the most recent day of history. Both ADs the same day means unless the winner holds on to a shot they'll be looking at who bought the other AD potentially which is a but of a waste imo. Thought they'd be better staggered because then the second shot would line up with the 1-shot and we'd have 2 detectives looking at toMorrows bids when the player pool is reduced more

Ah, got it.
Thats for confirming. I actually thought by enhance you made it better.

Regardless I think the 4 we got are really strong for this early in the game.

I've only played with Nancy once (it was a Pooky Nora Nancy hydra) and I was Paranoid that they were bussing scum come late game.
I was wrong though and they flipped town.

Outside of that, I have no experience that I at least remember.

I keep going back and forth on this. I want to be super confident on a VFP scumflip but I just can’t. But if Gamma’s right and you actually are Vedith, then we’ve definitely played together before Happy Face.

I just don’t see why Marci kills Distance and who of my trs I could possibly be reading wrong. I guess it’s possible CB could be pocketing me? He did give me that tr pretty fast but he’s not really being scummy either. I’ve seen his scumgame and it didn’t look anything like this.

No concern that Gamma could be pocketing them here. Hmm

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

We should let scum eat the GF bid, since they’re likely putting all of their pennies on Ninja, so I strongly recommend whomever gets tracker to use it to get an inno, because if scum has ninja than a tracker will just be wasted on them.

Gamma claimed he is bidding 499 on GF and VFP claimed he is bidding 500 on ninja

That’s very interesting. @Gamma why 499 and not 500? Well, in that case tracker should work on everyone but VFP.

I think if there had been a kill that S&M would have claimed they tracked Gamma if you catch my drift. That's why Gamma made a show of buying a role that cant go anywhere.

You’ve got serious chutzpah, I’ll give you that. Why tf would scum!us track a buddy? Please just continue to drive it home that your the last scum. You don’t even need my help.

We tracked YOU. Mod said you didn’t go anywhere but when I asked him if that held up if you visited Marci, he then told me it was essentially meaningless but don’t let me stop you from continuing to insult everyone’s intelligence

. lololol

[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town
dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim

@SS

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S & M
Something_Smart
Marcistar

Kyouku

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Spoiler: My push on Gamma culminating in Imaginality voting Gamma

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Reread the quoted post, and relax lmao

Oh I see from pronoun usage it is unclear upon reread. By "they" I mean the third scum. I also dont think that is what happened
What I'm saying is that, even with the info we have, it isn't enough to catch any scum by looking at auction prices directly, as they are able to mix and match their purchases if needed to make the numbers line up.

What I'm saying is we need to look at dayplay and see Gamma has been sidelining the whole game. He's not offering anything original, I dont think he's scumhunting so much as he's just following the flow of others' pushes, and it's pretty easy to see it by just reading his ISO.

I also think that Distancr and Marci as kills point towards a player like Gamma and the only other sideliney player like that is S_S. I think S_S makes sense as a partner to Gamma as well - the game just really points that way.

Gamma also shares some of your reads (Imaginality / VFP theory), so you might consider that he's hiding behind you

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

In this case on Gamma directed at S&M, I even point out to them explicitly that Gamma could be hiding behind them. S&M continues posting until deadline but never addresses this point. The next morning, S_S announces a guilty on Gamma. S&M pretty immediately votes Gamma without questioning if it's a fake in LimLo, slipping that she knows Gamma's alignment.

I think it's odd that one of their highest TRs guilties another of their highest TRs (probably top 2 TRs of S&M's left alive at that point in the game) and there is no pause to question which one they were wrong about.

Gamma wasn’t a hider, he flipped goon. Because I trusted S_S, which is why I fought so hard to save him.

Do I seriously need to requote the scummy reactions Gamma had to the guilty. which I pointed out? Or are you also going to pretend that never happened?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@mod can you confirm this night action resolution in thread since there seems to be some confusion?

A tracks B
B kills C
D jailkeeps C

What result does A receive?
-B didn't go anywhere
-No result

If you tried to visit Marci, that would be our result but since she was jailkept by Mastina, my result on you was meaningless.

I pm’d him and that’s what he told me but anyone who understands how a jk would impact a tracker result could clearly figure that out but that’s what Gypyx told me: if you visited Marci, our result is useless.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Why tf would scum!us track a buddy?

This is explained in the post you quoted. You would Track Gamma to fake an inno on him. It didnt work as you'd planned because of the jailkeep.

Keep rewriting history.

We tracked you.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Spoiler: My push on Gamma culminating in Imaginality voting Gamma

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Reread the quoted post, and relax lmao

Oh I see from pronoun usage it is unclear upon reread. By "they" I mean the third scum. I also dont think that is what happened
What I'm saying is that, even with the info we have, it isn't enough to catch any scum by looking at auction prices directly, as they are able to mix and match their purchases if needed to make the numbers line up.

What I'm saying is we need to look at dayplay and see Gamma has been sidelining the whole game. He's not offering anything original, I dont think he's scumhunting so much as he's just following the flow of others' pushes, and it's pretty easy to see it by just reading his ISO.

I also think that Distancr and Marci as kills point towards a player like Gamma and the only other sideliney player like that is S_S. I think S_S makes sense as a partner to Gamma as well - the game just really points that way.

Gamma also shares some of your reads (Imaginality / VFP theory), so you might consider that he's hiding behind you

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

In this case on Gamma directed at S&M, I even point out to them explicitly that Gamma could be hiding behind them. S&M continues posting until deadline but never addresses this point. The next morning, S_S announces a guilty on Gamma. S&M pretty immediately votes Gamma without questioning if it's a fake in LimLo, slipping that she knows Gamma's alignment.

I think it's odd that one of their highest TRs guilties another of their highest TRs (probably top 2 TRs of S&M's left alive at that point in the game) and there is no pause to question which one they were wrong about.

Gamma wasn’t a hider, he flipped goon. Because I trusted S_S, which is why I fought so hard to save him.

Do I seriously need to requote the scummy reactions Gamma had to the guilty. which I pointed out? Or are you also going to pretend that never happened?

Yes, you need to case me. We are in mlimlo. If you want this win you're going to have to work for it. Demonstrate that I make sense as a Gamma partner, and refute my case if you're town. If you don't, and S_S is scum, we lose. Deadline is no excuse today either because we can still no lim to get more day phases.

Oh please give me a break. Scum S_S guilties his partner in what freaking universe?

I made my case.

Gamma hardpushed me to vote you for MO > Flea/CB
You tried to save obvscum!Kitty and miselim town!VFP instead
A few early posts from Imaginality accusing you of scumslipping.
You hardpushed the bus theory because you already KNEW it was true where as I clearly did not.

You were only onboard with saving SS and limming Cyrus because he said if you didn’t die you were scum. That’s why when you supposedly gave your MO to VFP and didn’t die, I thought VFP purposely didn’t kill you but when he flipped town, I obviously then knew it wasn’t the reason.

Then you lie and try to give Imaginality the impression that we have hitman, so his roleblock can’t clear us. Then right before the day ends, you actually tell the truth and admit you not only have it but have actually had it since day freaking 1!

What possible town motivation could you have to lie about this? NONE.

I KNOW it’s you and I will do my damndest to convince both SS and Marci that it’s you because you’re practically doing cartwheels now to try to make each of them sus the other.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Spoiler: My push on Gamma culminating in Imaginality voting Gamma

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Reread the quoted post, and relax lmao

Oh I see from pronoun usage it is unclear upon reread. By "they" I mean the third scum. I also dont think that is what happened
What I'm saying is that, even with the info we have, it isn't enough to catch any scum by looking at auction prices directly, as they are able to mix and match their purchases if needed to make the numbers line up.

What I'm saying is we need to look at dayplay and see Gamma has been sidelining the whole game. He's not offering anything original, I dont think he's scumhunting so much as he's just following the flow of others' pushes, and it's pretty easy to see it by just reading his ISO.

I also think that Distancr and Marci as kills point towards a player like Gamma and the only other sideliney player like that is S_S. I think S_S makes sense as a partner to Gamma as well - the game just really points that way.

Gamma also shares some of your reads (Imaginality / VFP theory), so you might consider that he's hiding behind you

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

In this case on Gamma directed at S&M, I even point out to them explicitly that Gamma could be hiding behind them. S&M continues posting until deadline but never addresses this point. The next morning, S_S announces a guilty on Gamma. S&M pretty immediately votes Gamma without questioning if it's a fake in LimLo, slipping that she knows Gamma's alignment.

I think it's odd that one of their highest TRs guilties another of their highest TRs (probably top 2 TRs of S&M's left alive at that point in the game) and there is no pause to question which one they were wrong about.

Gamma wasn’t a hider, he flipped goon. Because I trusted S_S, which is why I fought so hard to save him.

Do I seriously need to requote the scummy reactions Gamma had to the guilty. which I pointed out? Or are you also going to pretend that never happened?

Jesus christ are you obtuse? Obviously Gamma isn't a Hider, this is an open setup. It is clear from context that I am saying he could be hiding behind town!you's pushes and reads to look less scummy as your scumreads get flipped as red. I'm saying he could be buddying you, pocketing you, etc.

He was obviously buddying me and I was wrong to not listen to CB on Alisae. I honestly thought Alisae would play a lot better as scum but I honestly can’t see why scum!Gamma would try so hard to push me to vote you for MO if you weren’t his buddy?

What other possible reason would he do that?

If you’re not his buddy, then he should have been fine with me voting for Flea or CB. He also didn’t say anything about it being deadline as a reason either, He hardpushed this and scum!Mastina did something very similar in a game but far less obviously. She tried to get us all to vote for her buddy Pink Ball. The difference was she was a lot more subtle but also, it actually mattered a lot less than in this game.

I also know we’re town.
I don’t believe SS would ever guilty a buddy. I have meta on him, remember?
I believe Distance inno’d Marci and that’s why he died. I also don’t see why Marci would kill Distance.

Mastina would never have scum!me as her #1 tr and has never townlocked me as scum. She said that this is “transparently town!Nancy”. I can dig up the post if need be. I just don’t see how it’s not you, because every single damn thing points to it.

And wrt to your nonsense track Gamma thing, why then didn’t we claim that? As Imaginality pointed out, why wrongly claim an inno on you? And had I not clarified with Gypyx that that inno was meaningless if you visited jk’d Marci, you might possibly have won this but the jk thing made me doubt that our result was valid, so damn good thing I verified it.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Why tf would scum!us track a buddy?

This is explained in the post you quoted. You would Track Gamma to fake an inno on him. It didnt work as you'd planned because of the jailkeep.

Keep rewriting history.

We tracked you.

If you tracked me you saw I did not go anywhere. This is not an inno on me because 2 scum were alive, but combined with the fact I had hitman available from D1, it may as well be an inno. If I were scum I would have used it that night. The time to use it would be to get around the Jailkeeper. Doctors can only stop the kill by guessing the target. The JK can stop the kill by guessing the target, guessing the killer, or even accidentally stop it for the wrong reasons by trying to protect the killer.

Sorry but this explanation is just wifom. I think you either didn’t know Mastina was jk - I sure as hell didn’t or if you did somehow realize it, because I’m pretty sure she never claimed it?

Or you didn’t know she’d jk Marci. I was actually surprised because I expected her to jk me but it obviously worked out, since it’s pretty obvious Marci was the target.

I think you or Gamma killed Distance because him calling Marci push a “scumclaim” makes sense if he got an actual inno on her. That’s why I don’t believe it’s Marci. I don’t believe scum!SS guilties a buddy. I think that is totally anti-wincon, especially since Gamma was being more strongly tr att than him.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Spoiler: My push on Gamma culminating in Imaginality voting Gamma

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Reread the quoted post, and relax lmao

Oh I see from pronoun usage it is unclear upon reread. By "they" I mean the third scum. I also dont think that is what happened
What I'm saying is that, even with the info we have, it isn't enough to catch any scum by looking at auction prices directly, as they are able to mix and match their purchases if needed to make the numbers line up.

What I'm saying is we need to look at dayplay and see Gamma has been sidelining the whole game. He's not offering anything original, I dont think he's scumhunting so much as he's just following the flow of others' pushes, and it's pretty easy to see it by just reading his ISO.

I also think that Distancr and Marci as kills point towards a player like Gamma and the only other sideliney player like that is S_S. I think S_S makes sense as a partner to Gamma as well - the game just really points that way.

Gamma also shares some of your reads (Imaginality / VFP theory), so you might consider that he's hiding behind you

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

In this case on Gamma directed at S&M, I even point out to them explicitly that Gamma could be hiding behind them. S&M continues posting until deadline but never addresses this point. The next morning, S_S announces a guilty on Gamma. S&M pretty immediately votes Gamma without questioning if it's a fake in LimLo, slipping that she knows Gamma's alignment.

I think it's odd that one of their highest TRs guilties another of their highest TRs (probably top 2 TRs of S&M's left alive at that point in the game) and there is no pause to question which one they were wrong about.

Gamma wasn’t a hider, he flipped goon. Because I trusted S_S, which is why I fought so hard to save him.

Do I seriously need to requote the scummy reactions Gamma had to the guilty. which I pointed out? Or are you also going to pretend that never happened?

Jesus christ are you obtuse? Obviously Gamma isn't a Hider, this is an open setup. It is clear from context that I am saying he could be hiding behind town!you's pushes and reads to look less scummy as your scumreads get flipped as red. I'm saying he could be buddying you, pocketing you, etc.

He was obviously buddying me and I was wrong to not listen to CB on Alisae. I honestly thought Alisae would play a lot better as scum but I honestly can’t see why scum!Gamma would try so hard to push me to vote you for MO if you weren’t his buddy?

What other possible reason would he do that?

If you’re not his buddy, then he should have been fine with me voting for Flea or CB. He also didn’t say anything about it being deadline as a reason either, He hardpushed this and scum!Mastina did something very similar in a game but far less obviously. She tried to get us all to vote for her buddy Pink Ball. The difference was she was a lot more subtle but also, it actually mattered a lot less than in this game.

I also know we’re town.
I don’t believe SS would ever guilty a buddy. I have meta on him, remember?
I believe Distance inno’d Marci and that’s why he died. I also don’t see why Marci would kill Distance.

Mastina would never have scum!me as her #1 tr and has never townlocked me as scum. She said that this is “transparently town!Nancy”. I can dig up the post if need be. I just don’t see how it’s not you, because every single damn thing points to it.

And wrt to your nonsense track Gamma thing, why then didn’t we claim that? As Imaginality pointed out, why wrongly claim an inno on you? And had I not clarified with Gypyx that that inno was meaningless if you visited jk’d Marci, you might possibly have won this but the jk thing made me doubt that our result was valid, so damn good thing I verified it.

If he was obviously buddying you then why didn't you track him? You expressed suspicion that you were being buddies and you addressed the possibility of S_S, CB, and maybe Mastina buddying you, but you never mentioned the possibility he was buddying you. If it is now obvious, and you were suspicious at the time, why did you not address it, and why did you not use your tracker in a manner consistent with your read on the gamestate?

Gamma didnt push you hard to vote me for MO. He made a short and simple post: "why NOT?" And you immediately acquiesced. I guess somehow you already were strongly TRing him for no reason before the Kitty wagon flipped, as the presence on the Kitty wagon seems to be your excuse for TRing him in this game. Convenient that you can do that and avoid analyzing his play.

You were both working together to buddy me. It is clear when reading his reasoning for voting me MO that he is appealing to my emotions. This is just a continuation of his plan to get you two into the town block by campaigning publicly for a town MO and eliminating scum D1.


You know you're town? I think not. Consider the following:
Maybe you do know S_S wouldn't bus. Probably he didnt bus as it seems likely you are the last scum. If you're town though, you're wrong, and he did bus, because I also know I'm town, and Marci seems to have been innoed.

Distance died so that town would think my bus theory was wrong. It wasn't wrong though.

Go ahead and dig up the mastina post for the class - mastina admitted she was having a hard time getting into this game and it was one of her worst town games in a while, and that her scumdar is static, etc. I am not going to put stock in her read on you over my own. You'll have to prove that to me on your own.

You didnt claim to track Gamma because there was no kill. If a kill happened, as you pointed out the day before, a tracker result on anyone EXCEPT VFP is a hard inno, because VFP publicly won Ninja.

I had no idea that it was Gamma who was buddying me. I was extremely surprised that I was wrong on him. I wrongly tr him, so why tf would I have tracked him?

I was however suspicious of you and thought I had a real inno on you until Gypyx clarified that unfortunately was not the case.

C’mon, you obviously deduced that he likely had the cop. Why am I bothering arguing with obvscum? You’re obviously just going to keep twisting everything I said.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Btw RE: the track:
Since scum, presumably, attempted to outbid me on the jailkeeper, but failed, they would know a town player got the jailkeeper.
If the jailkeeper was used to protect, they would assume that it was on Smoke & Mirrors, the more universal townread and loudest voice, which again is why a watch there is convenient.

If the jailkeeper was used offensively rather than defensively, though? Who would the scum think would be blocked? VFP, the person with the ninja and a universal scumread, or the other scum?

OBVIOUSLY, with the scum not having control of the jailkeeper, they would know that IF the jailkeeper were used offensively, that the jailkeeper would be roleblocking VFP, necessitating the non-ninja to perform the nightkill.

Which means that in all probability, the clear on SSBM is in fact a clear. While it's obviously possible scum, knowing that they didn't get the jailkeeper, chose to holster out of fear of the jailkeeper, them deliberately no-killing guarantees the jailkeeper agency; if the jailkeeper was used offensively on VFP, VFP's a guaranteed elimination; if the jailkeeper was used defensively on town, then the town player is cleared from the jailkeeper; this, regardless of an attempt to kill or not.

In other words: scum

could

have holstered, but they had more reason to take a shot than to not. Meaning that the clear while not absolute, I still trust as being reasonably likely to be correct.

So at this point:

Smoke and Mirrors = marcistar = ssbm >> imaginality >>> Gamma Emerald

>

Something_Smart >>>>>>>> VFP to me.

Not the specific quote I was looking for but it’ll do. This is also why SS is town. Gamma was more tr than he was, so it makes absolutely no sense for him to have guiltied Gamma.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Who am I reading wrong then?

Well townread-wise (you can substitute my name for yours, here), I'm currently at:

Smoke and Mirrors > marcistar > imaginality ~= Something_Smart > ssbm >>> Cupcake Butterfly (as of VFP voting them at end of day) > Gamma Emerald (as of

someone

needing to be scum and Gamma's vote on scum D1 being the most likely to be a bus) >>>>>>>> VFP.

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town. The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum

. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town. The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If you don't die your being voted off next. Scum tend to kill if they think they will get mo next.

That’s why I said 1 scum between VFP and Kyouku.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

1. Did Imaginality provide any quotes or generalized reasoning for a partnership between me and Gamma? I'd like to address any that are resonating with you as he's no longer around to discuss with

nah theres no quotes in there

2. Can you go into what doesn't seem town about my D5 or any other parts of the game? Again I'd like to address concerns

d5 just seemed like u were trying to push whatevers easiest to convince people on mainly. it seemed like u were keeping ur options open, and not trying to limit those options down at all to find scum. thats what i dont like, and thats what convinced me on u.

3. Can you provide context to this? I'm not sure what it's referring to.

we were talking about if gamma would be scum
i said "he would vote alot quicker if he was town" something like that
he said that someone used that argument against him when the butterfly elim thing was going down
i mentioned how it was u who did that against him.

ttention his slot deserves. Nobody else was keeping their options open enough to see he was scum. I've already posted some quotes but can post more in a dedicated post if you need, to showcase my pushing on Gamma and others' "passive" townreading of him.

he didnt mention ur push on gamma at all tho..?

7. Why did you think I would try to get him miseliminated? I briefly flip-flopped end of D3 I think when CB was eliminated, I remember voting him so he would have to vote CB to self-preserve, and I SRed him on D1 some, but aside from those times, as I recall I thought he was actually trying to solve. I think he Cupcake and I have been the most active about solving in this game.

at that point my thoughts were "brrrng i was wrong somewhere, i dont think kittys partner would lead an elim against them tho" so it went down to process of elimination which made u = scum, so if scum wanted a miselim on imaginality (like he thought it was gonna be)... ur who i think is scum, so u would try to miselim him

I applaud your tenacity. I still believe you’re scum and I just hope that SS and Marci also realize this.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S & M
Something_Smart
Marcistar

Kyouku

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@Marcistar
@S_S

Please take a look. I know I've been posting a lot of walls and it's probably daunting to read it all, but if you read just one of my posts, this is the one that proves S&M is just scum here. A lot of my other posts are conjecture and what-ifs, this is evidence that S&M has been lying about results, which town should never be doing.

There are a lot of long quotes in here but you only need to read what is highlighted in

green

and then my commentary on it below to understand. I left full quotes for context and spoilered it for readability.
tl;dr:
-

S&M has flip-flopped

between claiming "No Result" and "Did not go anywhere" on me
-

S&M has lied at least 4-5 times about their PMs with Gypyx

, claiming that Gypyx told them that if I had visited Marci on the night Marci was jailkept, that S&M's result would have been useless.
-

Gypyx has confirmed publicly

that if S&M tracked me on the night Marci was jailed AND I tried to kill Marci that night, that S&M would have seen me visiting Marci.

Spoiler: S&M's progression on their Tracker result

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

We should let scum eat the GF bid, since they’re likely putting all of their pennies on Ninja,

so I strongly recommend whomever gets tracker to use it to get an inno, because if scum has ninja than a tracker will just be wasted on them.

Here S&M is talking about using the Tracker to get an inno, and their bid is already on tracker. Maybe Nancy Drew doesn't realize that with 2 scum alive, or if one wins Ninja, that a Tracker result is not an Inno. But if the Hydra has already placed this bid, surely she has consulted Pooky. It sounds as though he is supposed to be a smart guy, so I think he would have realized right away that with Tracker and Ninja up for auction on the same day that Tracker is a useless power. But they bought it anyways, and their plan is to get an inno with it, not a guilty. They should already know this is not possible.

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

We should let scum eat the GF bid, since they’re likely putting all of their pennies on Ninja, so I strongly recommend whomever gets tracker to use it to get an inno, because if scum has ninja than a tracker will just be wasted on them.

Gamma claimed he is bidding 499 on GF and VFP claimed he is bidding 500 on ninja

That’s very interesting. @Gamma why 499 and not 500?

Well, in that case tracker should work on everyone but VFP.

Now they know VFP has Ninja. They say Tracker works on everyone but VFP, but that's just wrong again. There are still 2 scum alive, so a tracker result on anyone is useless because the other scum can perform the kill. A watcher, however, is able to guilty VFP because VFP admitted to buying Ninja. A watcher watching the dead player that sees nothing happen to the dead player knows the dead player was killed by the ninja. There is no such line of reasoning for a Tracker to get either an inno or a guilty though.

I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.

i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.

I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.

i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.

mastina

, who do u think vfps partner would be?

gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.

smoke

, who do u think?

imaginality

, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)

I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.

I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.

I didn't go anywhere. Not "no result", and not "Kyouko visited Marcistar."

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

@mod, if Kyouku visited Marci, would we have gotten the same result?

Here is the clarifying question: Gypyx asks them to clarify it via PM, and it seems that they do clarify it by PM because they come back later singing a different tune.

yeah I think S_S is probably town here
VOTE: VFP
I wanna know what nancy is thinking in all this but atp this is fine because as I said, VFP's CB vote was the one that bothers me the most

Idk but I still think Mastina, you and SS are town but having doubts again on VFP.

I know we get a no resuts on Kyouku but if he tracked jk’d Marci, would that have nullified our inno?

Idk, anymore.

I think Marci’s town but I suppose it’s possible that no kill could have happened if she’s the onr who made it? Probably tinfoiling though, because I still think she’s town.

The first lie. S&M is now claiming they got a "no result" on me, rather than seeing I didn't go anywhere. This is different than what they said at Day start which is presumably freshly after reading their PM from the mod. Most likely they tracked someone else to PR hunt, or tracked Gamma to claim an inno on him, and wanted the watcher result to back up their claim if Gamma was watched. When no kill happened, they claimed I didn't go anywhere because scum!S&M knows I haven't bought anything that

can

go anywhere, since I announced my 426 bid on Hitman D1, and it was won for 426.

do u remember what the claims for bidding on cop were? i could only find 2 claims but im not sure if theres more

I think we bid 365 and didn’t get it. We spent everything on 1 shot AD=300 + 1 shot tracker=200.

Speaking of, Gypyx just informed me that my “inno” on Kyouku was meaningless if he actually visited you.

I think it’s Kitty/Gamma/Kyouku.

Kyouku could push Gamma because prior to SS guilty, I tr him, so he was never in any danger.

Mastina kill confirms Marci town and probably was the intended NK, so us/SS/Marci=all town.

Gypyx informed them that their result on me was meaningless if I actually visited Marci. Let's break that down in terms that align with the question I asked Gypyx publicly in the thread:

A(S&M) tracks B(Kyouko)
B(Kyouko) kills C(Marcistar)
D(Mastina) jailkeeps C(Marcistar)

Gypyx confirmed publicly that in this situation, A (S&M) should receive "B visited C", or "Kyouko visited Marcistar". He did

not say

that A would get No Result because the target of the kill was jailkept, and yet,

after confirming with the mod via pm

, S&M is claiming that their result on me is meaningless

if I actually visited Marci

. That last part is what's important. They are suggesting that the mod confirmed to them that if they tracked me and I visited a jailkept target, that they would have received "no result", which is what they are now claiming to have received on me. Keep in mind that in Day start they said I didn't go anywhere, not that they tracked me and they got no result.

Gypyx replied to me. I can't quote him but you can all send him the same question I did to confirm if you like.

The question is along the lines of:

what happens in this situation?
X tracks Y
Y kills Z
W jails Z
Does X receive 'no result' or 'Y visits Z' (I actually asked him if 'Y didn't go anywhere' because I didn't go anywhere all game and that is what was on my mind)

And Gypyx told me X would see Y visiting Z. But S&M said I didn't go anywhere/

S&M lied about their soft Inno (not hard because there are still 2 scum alive) on me being an "inno" based on Marci being jailed by Mastina the night S&M saw me go nowhere.

Quick End

I think this is solved

Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?

If I had any doubts on Gamma!scum/SS!town, Kyouku confirmed it for me.

So it seems the reason that Gamma is scum and SS is town, to S&M, follows: I pmed the mod to verify the false claim that S&M made about their question to the mod. Somehow this ties back to Gamma being Scum and S_S being Town. You tell me how that correlates lmao

I have the 1-shot hitman from d1 still. By your own admission you tracked me and saw me go nowhere when Marci has jailed. If I were scum and not on Marci's team I would have used my strongman that night to shoot through jailkeeper.

But yes, I have only spent 426 so scum!me has the money to have bought the 2-shot hitman as well.

Yes but I asked the mod, if that was actually valid if you visited Marci and he said it wasn’t. Iow, my “inno” is null and void if you visited Marci.

I figured when I saw this post, you were planning to NK Imaginality and frame us.

VOTE: Kyouku

And don’t insult our intelligence here. You didn’t use the hitman because you obviously didn’t think you needed it. You’re not clear, the mod confirmed that and SS knows 100% this is my obvtown meta here as did Mastina who had me as her #1 tr.

Doubling down in lying about mod-provided information, and using it to justify voting me today in mlimlo.

If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

Same would apply to the VFP-me scum pairing some people have been mooting. Or me-Gamma for that matter.

S&M, does ssbm's point change your views on me and/or VFP?

The fact that I misunderstood your 90 bid, means you weren’t being hypocritical about wanting town to bid high.

If it isn’t you/VFP than someone has been pocketing me really really good.

Here S&M points out that they are concerned that they have been pocketed if it's not VFP or Imaginality. This could be preparing to inno Gamma with tracker, and if anyone questioned S&M on the Gamma track they could say Gamma might have been pocketing them so they wanted to check him. It makes sense from a town perspective to try to use tracker to catch the more townread one of the scumteam, because if scum knows S&M won tracker by doing the math on AD plus Tracker, they know to send the scum that is in the trackers TRs to do the kill. That would be a town!S&M reasoning that scum!S&M could use to justify the targeting.

I don't understand it.
I was just going to say that SSBM is most likely town, but if they picked the 4 roles then that's a townlock.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

Gylyx doesn't do a VC on a flip normally I think.

VOTE: MistyxVOTE:

I also don't think Marci is scum here.

I get to enhance 4 roles which makes them 400% more likely (I think this means 5x as likely but the setup may be worded incorrectly) to appear. I enhanced the 1-shot BP and also enhanced the 3 2-shot roles that appeared today. The 1-shot AD came in with it's normal chance, but I wanted it for tomorrow because it only.gives the most recent day of history. Both ADs the same day means unless the winner holds on to a shot they'll be looking at who bought the other AD potentially which is a but of a waste imo. Thought they'd be better staggered because then the second shot would line up with the 1-shot and we'd have 2 detectives looking at toMorrows bids when the player pool is reduced more

Ah, got it.
Thats for confirming. I actually thought by enhance you made it better.

Regardless I think the 4 we got are really strong for this early in the game.

I've only played with Nancy once (it was a Pooky Nora Nancy hydra) and I was Paranoid that they were bussing scum come late game.
I was wrong though and they flipped town.

Outside of that, I have no experience that I at least remember.

I keep going back and forth on this. I want to be super confident on a VFP scumflip but I just can’t. But if Gamma’s right and you actually are Vedith, then we’ve definitely played together before Happy Face.

I just don’t see why Marci kills Distance and who of my trs I could possibly be reading wrong. I guess it’s possible CB could be pocketing me? He did give me that tr pretty fast but he’s not really being scummy either. I’ve seen his scumgame and it didn’t look anything like this.

No concern that Gamma could be pocketing them here. Hmm

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (1) - Gamma Emerald
marcistar (0)
VFP (1) - mastina

not voting (4) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

We should let scum eat the GF bid, since they’re likely putting all of their pennies on Ninja, so I strongly recommend whomever gets tracker to use it to get an inno, because if scum has ninja than a tracker will just be wasted on them.

Gamma claimed he is bidding 499 on GF and VFP claimed he is bidding 500 on ninja

That’s very interesting. @Gamma why 499 and not 500? Well, in that case tracker should work on everyone but VFP.

I think if there had been a kill that S&M would have claimed they tracked Gamma if you catch my drift. That's why Gamma made a show of buying a role that cant go anywhere.

You’ve got serious chutzpah, I’ll give you that. Why tf would scum!us track a buddy? Please just continue to drive it home that your the last scum. You don’t even need my help.

We tracked YOU. Mod said you didn’t go anywhere but when I asked him if that held up if you visited Marci, he then told me it was essentially meaningless but don’t let me stop you from continuing to insult everyone’s intelligence

. lololol

tripling down on lying about mod provided information. This is after I've started to post my case against S&M, and, like on D2, instead of engaging me in a reasonable way to determine whether my push is in good faith, S&M lies about mod-provided information and shades me, saying I am insulting people's intelligence. Now S&M is back to saying I didn't go anywhere instead of no result. It has been publicly confirmed that if you had asked him what would have happened if I visited Marci while she was jailkept, that you would have seen that I visited Marci. Instead, you say you saw that I didn't go anywhere. So you are clearly lying about your conversations with the mod, if they even happened. Town has 0 reason to do this. You are confirmed scum.

@mod can you confirm this night action resolution in thread since there seems to be some confusion?

A tracks B
B kills C
D jailkeeps C

What result does A receive?
-B didn't go anywhere
-No result

If you tried to visit Marci, that would be our result but since she was jailkept by Mastina, my result on you was meaningless.

I pm’d him and that’s what he told me but anyone who understands how a jk would impact a tracker result could clearly figure that out but that’s what Gypyx told me:

if you visited Marci, our result is useless.

I'm not sure what S&M meant by "that" in "that would be our result" because I posted B didn't go anywhere and No result, both of which are different things that S&M has claimed about me so far, but again, S&M, in no uncertain terms, is saying that they asked Gypyx a question along these lines, probably not with these exact words: "if Kyouko visited Marci on the night I tracked Kyouko, would I have received the same result if Marci was jailkept?" And they are claiming that Gypyx said "no, if Kyouko visited Marci while she was jailkept, your result is meaningless." This is now publicly confirmed to be false. S&M has been lying about this, and town does not have reason to lie about this.

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Mafia players will receive 800Ð.

^


Kyouko just making lies up about me

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and they can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Reread the quoted post, and relax lmao

Oh I see from pronoun usage it is unclear upon reread. By "they" I mean the third scum. I also dont think that is what happened
What I'm saying is that, even with the info we have, it isn't enough to catch any scum by looking at auction prices directly, as they are able to mix and match their purchases if needed to make the numbers line up.

What I'm saying is we need to look at dayplay and see Gamma has been sidelining the whole game. He's not offering anything original, I dont think he's scumhunting so much as he's just following the flow of others' pushes, and it's pretty easy to see it by just reading his ISO.

I also think that Distancr and Marci as kills point towards a player like Gamma and the only other sideliney player like that is S_S. I think S_S makes sense as a partner to Gamma as well - the game just really points that way.

Gamma also shares some of your reads (Imaginality / VFP theory), so you might consider that he's hiding behind you

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

In this case on Gamma directed at S&M, I even point out to them explicitly that Gamma could be hiding behind them. S&M continues posting until deadline but never addresses this point. The next morning, S_S announces a guilty on Gamma. S&M pretty immediately votes Gamma without questioning if it's a fake in LimLo, slipping that she knows Gamma's alignment.

I think it's odd that one of their highest TRs guilties another of their highest TRs (probably top 2 TRs of S&M's left alive at that point in the game) and there is no pause to question which one they were wrong about.

Gamma wasn’t a hider, he flipped goon. Because I trusted S_S, which is why I fought so hard to save him.

Do I seriously need to requote the scummy reactions Gamma had to the guilty. which I pointed out? Or are you also going to pretend that never happened?

Jesus christ are you obtuse? Obviously Gamma isn't a Hider, this is an open setup. It is clear from context that I am saying he could be hiding behind town!you's pushes and reads to look less scummy as your scumreads get flipped as red. I'm saying he could be buddying you, pocketing you, etc.

He was obviously buddying me and I was wrong to not listen to CB on Alisae. I honestly thought Alisae would play a lot better as scum but I honestly can’t see why scum!Gamma would try so hard to push me to vote you for MO if you weren’t his buddy?

What other possible reason would he do that?

If you’re not his buddy, then he should have been fine with me voting for Flea or CB. He also didn’t say anything about it being deadline as a reason either, He hardpushed this and scum!Mastina did something very similar in a game but far less obviously. She tried to get us all to vote for her buddy Pink Ball. The difference was she was a lot more subtle but also, it actually mattered a lot less than in this game.

I also know we’re town.
I don’t believe SS would ever guilty a buddy. I have meta on him, remember?
I believe Distance inno’d Marci and that’s why he died. I also don’t see why Marci would kill Distance.

Mastina would never have scum!me as her #1 tr and has never townlocked me as scum. She said that this is “transparently town!Nancy”. I can dig up the post if need be. I just don’t see how it’s not you, because every single damn thing points to it.

And wrt to your nonsense track Gamma thing, why then didn’t we claim that? As Imaginality pointed out, why wrongly claim an inno on you?

And had I not clarified with Gypyx that that inno was meaningless if you visited jk’d Marci, you might possibly have won this but the jk thing made me doubt that our result was valid, so damn good thing I verified it.

This is another time S&M is doubling down on their lies about mod-provided information regarding their result on me.

Spoiler: The mod quote that proves that S&M is lying

@mod can you confirm this night action resolution in thread since there seems to be some confusion?

A tracks B
B kills C
D jailkeeps C

What result does A receive?
-B didn't go anywhere
-No result

B visited C

A=Smoke & Mirrors
B=Kyouko
C=Marcistar
D=Mastina

@mod, can you please requote here EXACTLY what you said to me in that pm? I don’t want us to lose the game because Kyouku is misrepresenting what I was told. I asked you specifically what happened wrt to our track if Kyouku visited Marci, and you made it crystal clear our result was meaningless if that occurred. So I don’t know what kind of fuckery Kyouku is alledging but unless you’ve for some reason changed your mind on that, Our”inno” on Kyouku is non-existent.

At any rate, @Kyouku, Gamma could have visited Marci, so it doesn’t change my read on you one iota.

I am waiting for either Marci or SS to post. I’m not going to read anymore of your bs posts attempting to frame me.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I will try to paraphrase what Gypyx told me:

He basically said, that the only way our result that Kyouku didn’t go anywhere is valid - if she visited Marci - is if you had a ninja ability. Is that correct @mod? And since we know that VFP got 2 shot ninja, it means, our result that Kyouku didn’t go anywhere was invalid.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Gypyx is confusing me, he said we would have seen you visit jk’d Marci.

UNVOTE:

for now.

It’s definitely not us.

I don’t see why scum!SS guilties Gamma and why did Distance say that voting Marci was a scumclaim?