Mini 1316 - Last Will Mafia IV (Over)

[kortul]

Hello. Just a quick post from work. This week is busy for me, so will do a thorough reading of what had happened in the evening or tomorrow.

I did a quick reading of thread anyway, to submit initial Last Will, so may as well answer two questions that i've noticed. The last name on my will is Alicewondering - i don't know him/her, and his/her presence in this game is practically null so far. And from the player list i know DDD (completed a game together, that is lost in a crush), hiplop and 4nxi3ty (playing in other games with them atm).

[kortul]

It took me awhile to thoroughly read the thread several times, looking for interactions, do ISO on everyone and gather my thoughts into reads. Family demanded my attention as well, and they do have priority.

Lastsurvivor

- leaning town. I agree with his logic, find the explanations and answers reasonable, and the activity level is good.

Fishythefish

- neutral feeling.

Alicewondering

- neutral feeling.

DDD

- neutral feeling. Practically the same arrogant behavior as in my previous game with him, i even did meta research on him there to figure out if this is his usual playing style. It is. The research died along with a game, but i do remember my conclusions.

Rhinox

- before i got to the post 54 my read was "neutral, leaning scum" because of the presence with lack of serious thoughts, this post changed my impression back to neutral.

Nachomamma8

- controversial read. He is an experienced player, seems calm and confident, yet is flowing with a tide, mostly answering questions, with an occasional relevant question of his own. Not a single vote, even during RVS - those who know him, is it his usual playing style?

hiplop

- no read. He become active only today, hope to see more content.

Vincent2128

- no read. No presence, no content, no votes.

funkybike1

- no read. No presence, no content, no votes. The only relevant question is good, but that makes his general absence really questionable.

4nxi3ty

- i did a meta research on him in another game recently, and come to conclusion that his behavior is always scummy, so i have to rely on logic, votes and interactions while judging him. In this game i can analyse only RVS and 2 votes. I don't like his silent vote on my townread (Lastsurvivor), so that makes him leaning scum for now.

Malee

- leaning scum. The initial vote looks aggressive, but i am not familiar with her usual style. Farther explanations are really inconsistent.

Sleepless Assassin

- leaning scum. While he is posting regularly, those posts lack the content for me. He is sitting on a Fishythefish since the first post, alone, and does nothing to either build a case to gather support, or to question his suspects to confirm or abandon his reads.

VOTE: Sleepless Assassin

[kortul]

PEDIT @kortul: When I say "what do you think of their" I mean all the players you listed that you know, not just hiplop.

DDD - same behavior as in my previous game with him (Newbie 1210, we were both town there); 4nxi3ty - is much less active here than in the other game; hiplop - almost the same behavior (had 1 post in the other game for a whole Day 1, become a bit more active recently).

If Malee flips scum, LS becomes scummier.

Why do you think it would make LS scummier?

I also would like to hear the thoughts from Alicewondering behind the post 102, just want to make sure he doesn't miss the question.

[kortul]

Nachomamma8

- controversial read. He is an experienced player, seems calm and confident, yet is flowing with a tide, mostly answering questions, with an occasional relevant question of his own. Not a single vote, even during RVS - those who know him, is it his usual playing style?

Does anybody know the Nachomamma8 enough to answer my question?

And i have a question for

Malee

- can you tell your thoughts/reads on anyone? Now that your case on Nacho is null, whom do you suspect and why?

[kortul]

Nachomamma8

gave an explanation for his unusual start, and i like his point about Vincent2128 in post 152, so he is now neutral for me.

Sleepless Assassin

actually gave explanations for his case about Fishythefish, and started to question him. On the other hand it may be just a safe parking place, since while Malee is also on his scum list, he doesn't question her. Therefore he is now neutral, leaning scum for me.

funkybike1

- questionable appearance after the questionable absence. He gave a bunch of town reads (that is always scummy in my eyes on Day 1, from RL games experience), one scum read (with no vote) and i don't really understand this part:

However, I respect other people's opinions,

and if this behavior continues from Malee, it will be very hard to dig out of the hole she created for herself.

I don't see a connection between the bolded part and the rest of the sentence.

funkybike1

is now leaning scum for me.

Between

funkybike1

and

Malee

, i am going to vote funkybike1. I don't want to put Malee at L-1 right now and risk a quickhammer, losing the rest of the Day 1. And i am still interested in her reads and thoughts.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: funkybike1

funkybike1, can you elaborate on your reads and explain why don't you vote for one of your scum reads?

[kortul]

Nachomamma8

gave an explanation for his unusual start, and i like his point about Vincent2128 in post 152, so he is now neutral for me.

In that case, you agree with his point, and I am as a result town to you?

Am i seeing an overdose of egocentricity? Or some kind of obsession with town credits - you were thinking that Malee attempted to gain town credits from you, now asking if you are town to me?

I like the thinking out of the box from Nachomamma8 in that post, and also think that scum has less reasons to bring such an unusual thought on public (unless both of you are scum). Therefore my read on Nacho improved.

On the other hand, i believe that extremely egocentric player may see that Malee post as "an attempt to gain town credits" regardless of his alignment, so you are neutral to me. But, if Malee replacement or you will flip scum one day, the other will get a town boost in my eyes, since i don't see scum accusing another scum of an attempt to gain town credits, at the same time adding suspicion with active wagon rolling on a partner.

My read on Malee didn't change - i wanted to see her thoughts and reads to get a better understanding and figure out whether there would be any inconsistences there as well. With this option gone, that slot remains leaning scum to me. Time will show whether this will be true by the end of the day - i am against speed lynches that deny us time and information/interactions, that can be gathered during this time.

Nacho managed to provide a decent explanation for his behavior; I find it believable.

That doesn't explain why didn't you vote before, when he was scum for you, question is still open. If Nacho isn't scummy anymore, whom do you suspect? There are other questions you haven't answered - at least two of your town reads are asking them, what is the reason to ignore us?

[kortul]

Yes, it was intentional to leave people out. Sleepless Assassin's last post moves him more towards the town end of the scale.

After you removed Nacho from your scum list, it is empty (at least the part that you share with us). Do you have any scum reads that you don't reveal? If yes, what are the reasons? I can't imagine that you find everything on those 9 pages of actions/opinions/interactions as neutral or town.

General question: What does everyone think of hiplop?

hiplop behavior is consistent, he feels natural, even in his "heavy gut case" on Rhinox. He is neutral for me.

While going through his ISO today, i noticed that he never commented on Malee or funkybike1.

hiplop

, what are you reads (or just thoughts) on them?

[kortul]

hm.. its my impression that no one really has playstyles, they just post what comes to mind. I guess scum usually have one, however.

hiplop

, i had to read this several times, and still don't think that i understand you. Can you elaborate?

funkybike1

, why do you answer some questions, and ignore other (like my questions from post 204)?

DDD

, you are sitting on Nacho for some time already, does it mean that you still see him on cruise control?

As for the discussion topic - i took a look on Last Will Fafia III before replacing in here, and don't remember any strong buddying attempts there. With a last will mechanics in mind, i would find anybody trying to buddy me suspicious.

@mod

- can you prod Vincent2128? He is active in other threads, but more than 3 days is absent here.

[kortul]

I have a feeling like i am falling behind a bit, even reading the thread several times a day when i have a break. I really hope to get a quiet evening when my wife and kid will leave me alone for an hour or so, and reread all the walls. Meanwhile, i have some comments and questions.

My view on funkybike1 is getting worse. Constant question dodging/ignoring, vague comments, town reads on many players, with no scum reads and no vote.

funkybike1

, if you are actually reading our posts, do some home work and answer the questions, left by several players all over the last several pages.

theomoaner

, you say that you "always find votes with no explanation to be a little suspicious", applied that to Sleepless Assassin, but left behind two such votes of 4nxi3ty, who is null read for you. Also, you have several leaning scum reads, is no read strong enough to vote?

The biggest problem I had with her is her out of place complimenting. In post #138, she says something vincent said was "very townish to say," even though, quite honestly, it was not very townish to say.

Last, are you sure you got that post right? I remember the different feeling from that post, so decided to dig it out:

This post feels fake to me (see #95 and #97 as well.)

That's very townish to say, but it was genuine. I thought nacho voted you, but even without that vote, he still skimmed. I wasn't paying attention enough, my bad.

When i saw this post, i assumed she were talking about her next words, ie "That IS very townish FOR ME to say, but my post was genuine". I even didn't thought that it can be applied to a Vincent quote.

[kortul]

Finally i had time at work to do analysis, make relevant ISOs and reassess my reads.

Lastsurvivor

- town. Most of the time i agree with his logic, i really like the activity i see, and so far i have same scum reads. I don't agree with some of his town reads, but that is natural.

Fishythefish

- leaning town. I have similar view on almost all of his scum reads, and i admire his valiant attempt to make a deep analysis of Rhinox vs hiplop, i don't see scum doing it on day 1.

Sleepless Assassin

- neutral, leaning town. My read on him actually changed to a better side. It is more like overall impression, not that much to analyse yet, but i like those ISOs he did.

Rhinox

- neutral, leaning town. I really like his emotions and thoughts in #54, he had good questions and comments in some of his farther posts, but then he went into a clinch with hiplop, for "the vote switch for the reasons given, and reads that aren't explained or supported by his iso". I actually see that vote switch as not a big deal, and reads changes are not extreme.

hiplop

- neutral, slightly leaning town. He is a bit erratic, but feels natural. He is listening, adjusted his reads on SA, DDD, Nacho, yet is heavy locked on Rhinox for gut feeling and "trying pretty hard to paint me as scum". Some of the changes are instant, some gradual, like his read change on DDD:
218: "DDD feels independently scummy, some for his lurking, some for his actual posts."
272: "I used "maybe even DDD"...because my only thought on him is hes kinda lurky."
280: "DDD is based off of lurking. Its not a very strong tell. Very weak, infact."
320: "It was more of a case that i realized DDD was just lurking, so he moved up to null."

Nachomamma8

- neutral. Not much of a presence, some posts i like, some points i agree with, some disagree.

Vincent2128

- neutral, slightly leaning scum. Not much of a presence, too much of egocentricity, and i don't really understand his post 330 and unvote.

DDD

- neutral, slightly leaning scum. Before ISO all i could remember on him was "sitting on Nacho", after ISO i can add "Amished-tell". Not much to analyse. I remember him being more all over the place, but he was an IC in that game.

4nxi3ty

- slightly leaning scum. I don't agree with his thoughts, logic, and don't like votes without explanations, yet i know i cannot rely on his whole behavior (meta research, done in another game).

theomoaner

- leaning scum. My read on this slot was the same, and i am not impressed with theomoaner so far to change it.

funkybike1

- leaning scum. Said everything before, nothing changed.

Alicewondering

- scum. There is no need to repeat the points of Lastsurvivor and Fishythefish, after going through ISO several times i come to conclusion that they are valid. I don't like inconsistencies in what she is saying and what is is doing:

Why vote for someone you don't think is scum?

- Scum tend to be rather wishy washy about their reads.

At the moment, I'm more interested in DDD. He's showed very little effort in scumhunting,

which is not necessarily a scumtell

, but it is weird to me how he tunneled Nacho for so long, especially considering his case wasn't that great. He hasn't posted much more about his scumreads, even when asked.

VOTE: DDD

Your scumread (theomoaner) does 180 on you, and instead of questioning him you switch to someone, you are not even sure is scummy?


UNVOTE:
VOTE: Alicewondering

theomoaner

, can you explain your thought process behind your 180 on Alice? In one day you went from

"Her posts feel like "the voice of reason". She seems to be analysing what others are posting and to try to help others think through their ideas (for example post 148). I can't see scum doing this."

to a vote on her. I agree with the result, but don't understand the process yet.

I ignored

Rhinox vs hiplop

for a time, because i was pretty sure this will die soon. Since this isn't the case, i think that

both of you should take a break for a time

, look around for other suspects, and reassess the reads on each other.

[kortul]

funkybike1

, that's all you have to say after the week of absence? No own thoughts behind your first non-RVS vote, no answers to a previous questions?

Now my second and third scum reads are on the same wagon on my strongest scum read. Either this is an extreme case of bussing, or i am wrong about at least one of them. I will wait for the explanation from

theomoaner

to my question and the reaction and answers from

Alicewondering

, before reassessing my reads and conclusions. I really doubt i will get input from funkybike1, since he is ignoring most of the questions. Actually, i will just meta him, maybe this is his usual behavior...

[kortul]

Alicewondering

, do you really think that DDD is scum or just interested in his reads? And why do you question funkybike1, but ignore theomoaner?

I really want to understand your logic.

[kortul]

Good catch on Theo's flip flopping Alice read. Theo, care to explain the flop?

Theo's move to alice is absolutely horrid. I'm surprised someone hasn't noticed this already.

I wonder, does anybody actually read my posts?

Alicewondering

-

<...cut some quotes...>

Your scumread (theomoaner) does 180 on you, and instead of questioning him you switch to someone, you are not even sure is scummy?

<...>

theomoaner

, can you explain your thought process behind your 180 on Alice? In one day you went from

"Her posts feel like "the voice of reason". She seems to be analysing what others are posting and to try to help others think through their ideas (for example post 148). I can't see scum doing this."

to a vote on her. I agree with the result, but don't understand the process yet.

I was waiting for comments from Alice and explanations from theo, but Alice ignored this completely, and theo wasn't here to answer yet (missing for 3 days).

I don't see how admitting that points are valid makes Alicewondering less scummy now, but move from funkybike1 brought him closer to her, and theomoaner is there as well (at least until i will hear an explanation from him). Basicly now i see all three almost equally scummy, with Alice still leading, but remaining on the same wagon with funky AND theo feels so wrong, therefore:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: funkybike1

[kortul]

Hmm, i see two different opinions on a funky based on his meta, and both are from players, whom i trust so far. I should be able to check him today and form my own opinion, but since he has only 205 posts, it means a lot of data is lost in a crash, and the picture would be broken.

There is no rush after the announcement of LlamaFluff - we still have more than day and a half ahead before the deadline, so if theo comes back, we will have time to hear his explanations and claim, and if he is MIA, 3 more days should be enough to hear what his replacement will say. But this slot is already scummy after the Malee, and if we will have a replacement again my question about 180 on Alice would be without answer as well. Without such an explanation, i don't see me ever believing anyone in this slot to be town.

With theo at L-1 it is a good time to update the wills, funky may as well hammer after coming back.

[kortul]

At around 164 What exactly were your thoughts on Malee? Why did you not want to contribute them to discussion?

Strange question. I gave my thoughts on Malee in a reads post 112 (which you obviously saw), do you think they magically changed after just one post from her? I asked some questions, but they remained unanswered since she left.

We already know what have happened in the game, and now we know your brief notes on some posts, but where are your conclusions?

[kortul]

It seems that only 4nxi3ty and Macrophage himself are not ready to lynch Macrophage. Well, we don't know the current opinion of Nacho, and future opinion of funky replacement, and SA is doubting but doesn't really object. That's actually a lot of hate as for a day 1, which is something new for my limited experience with forum mafia games, and i am suspicious of unusual things. Still, after the new ISO on Malee and theo i came to the same conclusions as before, and Macrophage posts didn't change my opinion, so i am ready to hammer closer to deadline.

I believe it would be better to wait for the funkybike1 replacement to arrive, to hear his reads and thoughts. And Nacho promised to be back to normal self.

[kortul]

I want other opinions before claiming further.

Softclaim isn't enough for me, and i doubt anyone will say it satisfies him/her. Fishy already explained all the main points why you should make a full claim, and i would like to add that you should do it pretty soon. If we will decide to postpone the lynch at least until day 2, the sooner you will claim, the more time we will have to come to an agreement as to the alternative lynch.

We have a little more than 3 days to the deadline, so don't waste the precious time.

[kortul]

Good, we finally have a replacement for funky. Welcome, DCLXVI.

My opinion on Alice is still the same.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Alicewondering

[kortul]

One day spent with a family, and almost three pages of discussions to read. My opinion on Nacho skyrocketed, he is consistent, logical, and looks at the problem from different angles. I agree with some of his conclusions, but will have to read the case on Lastsurvivor several times tomorrow, to see whether i will find his actions or intentions scummy. I don't like the fact that he lied about some things before, and admitted that only after extensive questioning from Nacho. Will have to figure out for myself, whether this comes from ego/pride or some scummy motives behind.

@SA - i left the Alice wagon because both funky and theo went there. Now their replacements went elsewhere, so i am back to my strongest suspicion.

@Macto - you have asked about why Malee and theo were scummy, and for comments on your defence.

Malee - first 4 posts were consistent, and then out of nowhere

"But you never said, was your Vincent vote a serious vote? It just seemed very odd, even for a RVS."

. Never before did she mention this while giving explanations, so this new twist was real inconsistent, like trying to make a case stronger. Once she realized that she made a mistake, she just dropped the whole thing. Also, not a single opinion about anybody else (i still believe that in 138 she were talking about her own words being townish).

theomoaner - within 3 relevant posts he managed to make a 180 on Alice and disappear after that, so explanations are lost.

As for your defence, my answer is simple - people do mistakes even when they are scum, otherwise it would be real hard to catch scum. I may be wrong about any of this small cases, but being wrong about both of them is less likely. So i still think the slot is scummy.

Macro, my overall impression about you personally is more positive. I actually like that you didn't jump immediately to a strongest counterwagon (LS). But i don't understand the opinion change on Voidedmafia - will have to reread tomorrow, but if you will explain it again it would be great.

I don't really understand why Alice and Fishy think that after the VT claim Macro is town. I mean, the fact that scum less likely to do a VT claim doesn't instantly make this claim town. If he claimed to be some PR, would you lynch him instead? I see possible PR hunting motives here, which makes me even more suspicious of Alice (and Fishy), at the same time it means that there's chance that i am wrong about Macro after all - PR hunting on a scumbuddy isn't exactly productive.

As for the DDD - my read didn't change, since he isn't exactly posting anything. Right now this would be the less informative flip for the lack of interactions.

It is more than 1 am here, and i am too tired to do any more reading and thinking, will do this with clear head some time tomorrow.

[kortul]

Just a quick check before going out with a family again, so extensive reading would be in the evening.

I don't really understand why Alice and Fishy think that after the VT claim Macro is town. I mean, the fact that scum less likely to do a VT claim doesn't instantly make this claim town. If he claimed to be some PR, would you lynch him instead? I see possible PR hunting motives here, which makes me even more suspicious of Alice (and Fishy), at the same time it means that there's chance that i am wrong about Macro after all - PR hunting on a scumbuddy isn't exactly productive.

Macrophage held the belief that a VT claim was going to equal certain death, as you can tell by the way he claimed. So, claiming non-VT was clearly a move of survival. As scum, once he had already laid that claim down, there was no reason to rescind on it at all. If he were PR hunting, then he might as well claim a specific PR, or else it would be useless. The only reason he would rescind that claim is if he didn't want to be counterclaimed, and scum who were pretty certain they were gonna die really don't give a shit about being counterclaimed.

Nacho, you got me wrong, just read again. Of course i understand that Macro isn't PR hunting after such a claim. I suspect Alice and Fishy of PR hunting, since after the VT claim from Macro they are more interested in other wagons. All others who say that they believe the claim weren't interested or pushing Macro wagon.

Alice, Fishy, what would you do if Macro actually claimed to have some PR? Keep the heat on him, or go elsewhere?

[kortul]

Starting rereading. May take hours, i tend to lose focus analyzing walls that go back and forth over the same points.

@mod

Isn't it time to prod DDD? His last post is more than 3 days old.

[kortul]

In the middle of the rereading, and since i am working on both Macro and Last, there is something i don't see so far (maybe it was adressed later, but i don't remember seeing it).

Last

, what is your own opinion on the Macro VT claim?

[kortul]

*sigh* Rereading completed. Writing my conclusions right now will take at least half an hour, and i am not doing it at 1 am. Will do it tomorrow morning at work. Meanwhile i do hope that

Alice

and

Fishy

will answer my previous question. And

Macro

, can you elaborate more why and when Voided went from scum to town in your eyes? My decision may be affected by those answers, that's why i don't want to place my vote.

[kortul]

Hell, before going to sleep i thought that i knew where my vote goes, to Macro. And in the morning i see the twist i didn't expect. I hate to make a choice under time pressure, when players are doing things that don't fit my read on them. Ok, my opinion on three current wagons.

Macrophage

. Even though i mostly like his behaviour (except for the Voided opinion change), i still think the slot is scummy, because of Malee/theo. That drives me crazy, since several years playing RL mafia don't teach how to deal with replacements. Answers from a Fishy and Alice didn't shift my read as well.

Lastsurvivor

. For a long time this was my strongest town read. I had some doubts after his switch from Alice - i still don't see why admitting that points are valid makes Alicewondering less scummy. And here comes a case from Nacho. It shed new light on that Alice switch, and brought into focus some older things, but i still wasn't convinced that Last is scum after rereading. His answer to my question was good and consistent with my read on him.

And in the morning i see that after Macro voted him, and agreed "with 4n's point that your recent posts are all about defending yourself and I see little effort to work out who's scum.", Last unvotes Macro and goes after DDD. What posts 565 and 560 have to do with such decision i don't understand. I see an attempt to appease Macro and at the same time switch to a more easy target atm, this move doesn't fit my town picture of Last at all, therefore Last is on a scummy side as well now.

Debonair Danny DiPietro

. As i told before, his general behaviour is the same as i remember in our game lost in the crash, but he is less active and demanding, so i suspect him a bit. Because he is absent, i think that if we lynch him now it would be more like a policy lynch, since he cannot claim, give his reads, defend, change his last will, and has less interactions then any other player in the game. Still, taking into account the deadline, this a valid lynch for me.

All three are scummy for completely different reasons, and voting each other in a circle. In other words, i am lost. Logically, lynch of Macro or Last gives us more information. Cynically, lynch of DDD gives less information but leaves in the game two more active players. I can't chose between my scum reads, but i trust my town read, and will just follow Nacho.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Lastsurvivor

I will be able to check the forum for another 11-12 hours or so, hope the final decision will be made before. And

Lastsurvivor is at L-1

now, so give him a chance to return and speak.

[kortul]

*sigh* I can't stay awake so long three nights on a row, falling asleep, and Nacho is still not here. Those who are awake, please make sure that there's no no-lynch happening. And update last wills. I did.

[kortul]

Friday 13 was tough. Will clear my head on weekend from all the work, finish the research in another game and reassess my reads. I did a quick skimming of today posts, and have two quick questions.

Rhinox, can you give your thoughts behind the scumread on DDD, if you will find some time or after the weekend? Though, if you already did it on day 1, i will see that during rereading.

DDD, your Macro case is based on a tell. Can you explain the

logic

behind it, and why you believe it is reliable. Can you link to some successful examples of Amished-tell? If you expect us to consider the case, we have to understand why it works.

[kortul]

I finished my research in the other game yesterday night, so will post my thoughts this evening (hopefully), or tomorrow morning.

[kortul]

With last will mechanics in mind from now on i will list my town reads in random order, not really telling how strong the top ones are.

Rhinox and Fishythefish - leaning town. There was a moment i began to question my read on Fishy, but his answer was ok.

Sleepless Assassin - slightly leaning town. Overall impression. He is consistent, and digging in his own direction.

hiplop - slightly leaning town. He still feels natural, his day 2 vote is consistent, and he wasn't afread to hammer LS. Not much of a presence though for a second half of the game.

Voidedmafia - slightly leaning town. I didn't like Vincent, so this read change is mostly based on his active and consistent stance on Macro. He isn't just sitting there, he is doing something.

4nxi3ty - middle ground. I didn't agree with his logic and thoughts day 1, but i actually like his input on day 2, find the questions he is asking and comments good and relevant, though i don't understand his latest "idea throwing".

DCLXVI - slightly leaning scum. I was suspicious of funky, and have mixed feelings on DCL. He seems to be active, consistent and logical, which i like, though was focused almost only on LS and i really didn't get some of his conclusions from VCA. Also, i do not agree with his view that "wagons on Theo and Macro were based mostly off of the wagon on Malee" - theo is equally (if not more) tainted the slot.

Alice - leaning scum. I still don't like her behaviour during day 1, unvote (and the explanation) after the VT claim from Macro. But i am not as convinced as on day 1 - if she indeed is working on building townreads, some of her actions make sense, and she started Day 2 with a really good question to DDD.

Macrophage - leaning scum. Slot is scummy, and the explanations on both read changes on Voided are borderline, taking into account the moments they were done.

DDD - leaning scum. My impression from the previous day is only getting worse. He become more active today, but most of this activity is criticizing, he is sitting on Macro based on Amished tell from theo, and his reads look like inverted version from funky (ie almost everyone is scummy for him).

VOTE: Macrophage

Macro

, what you don't like about Rhinox reasoning for voting DDD? Why not argue those points, to either understand them and improve your read on both Rhinox and DDD, or to prove they are bad?

I have some other questions/comments, will make a separate post.

[kortul]

Vote 4n

Not a lot has changed since Day 1. Lastlynch was as terrible as it was before it happened. Macrolynch is almost as bad. DDD, DCL, and 4n are still the scums.

SA

, any particular reason to concentrate only on 4nxi3ty? I can see you working to improve your read, but do you have questions for your other scumreads?

I'm going to hold off on a Macro vote at least for today.

Alice

, what do you mean by hold off? From your posts i got an impression that you finally believed the VT claim.

@

4nxi3ty

- what are your thoughts behind the idea?

Macro wagon was in much better shape yesterday, so to keep it rolling today just sitting there isn't enough.

hiplop, DDD

, if it isn't just a parking place for you, question him, question your other suspects.

@

DDD

- is Amished tell on theo the only reason for your vote on Macro?

@

DCLXVI

- so what are your thoughts and suspects after the re-read?

[kortul]

Macro, your Voided read changes were too convenient at the moment they were done. I don't say this is a 100% scumtell just because these read changes are so careless, that any competent scum would avoid them. Still they leave bad taste in the mouth, and discussing this farther is just WIFOM.

And you are asking me not to vote you and believe you are town, but ignore the question i asked you in a post 697.

[kortul]

I'm going to hold off on a Macro vote at least for today.

Alice, what do you mean by hold off? From your posts i got an impression that you finally believed the VT claim.

I do believe the VT claim, but I noticed a bunch of people voting Macro, and I don't think that he should be the lynch.

You found an obscure way to say so, my interpretation wasn't even close.

As for the Rhynox-DDD argument about taking into consideration the opinions of the dead players, i have a middle view. Their cases and opinions may be, and in some cases should be used as a starting point during the beginning of the next day, but the more the game progresses the more outdated those opinions are. It is like a snapshot of an opinion, good as long as we are close to the moment when it was taken.

[kortul]

Kortul, what do you think about the possibility of a replacement replacing in and skimming the game quickly to form quick reads. Do you not think a quick read change would make sense in this case?

His own explanation was different.

@Kortul: How were they convenient? And don't you think the solution should be that I'm neither competent nor incompetent scum?

First one was when you were at L-1 and claiming, so it could be done to lessen the pressure. Second one was at the beginning of Day 2, with Voided already voting you, so maintaining townread on him no longer needed. So if you are scum those changes were convenient for you. I won't speculate farther, since discussion can go forever with actually leading anywhere. And yes, i can see the scenario where you are town suffering from a mess from predecessors, and your read changes have logical town explanations, but the reasons you said are different so far, and only your farther actions can tilt the scales of my read in other direction (or someone will become more scummy).

[kortul]

Does anyone actually have any basis for thinking my read changes were convenient/scummy/whatever? (Except for me attempting to buddy voided into changing his read of me, because that's just stupid. I even joked about it... [refrains from swearing]) Answers from DCL, hiplop and kortul are needed.

I already answered that in 719.

So there are likely three townies that are likely going to keep wanting to lynch me throughout. DCL maybe no and kortul could be night-killed

Hmm, that's an interesting alignment i have now - "could be night-killed". What does it mean?

@Kortul/hiplop/voided/debonair/DCL: Are you likely to continue seeing what I post as scummy or do you think you could come to see me as town?

I answered that as well:

And yes, i can see the scenario where you are town suffering from a mess from predecessors, and your read changes have logical town explanations, but the reasons you said are different so far, and only

your farther actions can tilt the scales of my read in other direction

(or someone will become more scummy).

While you are defending you are helping only yourself, both scum and town do this, how do you expect us to get a better read on you? Nacho explained it perfectly yesterday:

Stop worrying about getting lynched. If you do, it's not the end of the world.

Help us find scum

and fuck everything else.

[kortul]

-PR claim then VT claim, the temptation to bang my head against a wall for letting myself get tricked into thinking macro was town for that is very strong

DCLXVI

, i don't remember you commenting on Macro claim earlier, but this post implies you believed the claim before. What are the reasons for your opinion change (not on Macro himself, but on his claim)?

@Sleepless: I can do a "why I think 4nxi3ty is town" case if you like. Just let me know.

Macrophage

, actually, i am interested. Can you do it for me? It might help to understand both of you better.

[kortul]

DCLXVI

, i did an ISO looking for your previous opinion on Macro claim, and realized that the only time you gave your reads was when you talked about first impressions. Can you give your current opinion? For obvious reasons town reads shouldn't have any particular order.

I am also interested in the reads from

Alicewondering

,

4nxi3ty

and

hiplop

. We criticized DDD that his list allows him to vote on anyone, but the absence of reads provides the same opportunity. The game progressed well enough to form at least some opinions or impressions.

[kortul]

@Kortul: If it's only for a read of me, I'd rather not say why I think 4nx is town. If you think he's scum or are struggling to read him, I can if you want.

Well, "struggling to read him" is close enough, so yes, i would like to hear your thoughts.

[kortul]

@

Macro

- thank you for the explanation. I can't say that your thoughts on why 4nxi3ty is town helped me to read him much better, but there was one point that i missed earlier. At the same time i came to conclusion that i was wrong assuming that i can reliably understand your logic.

@

hiplop

, you are becoming more active, it seems - what are your thoughts on other players?

@

DCLXVI

, can you answer my question in post 762?

@

Alice

- i also suspected funky, and not because of lurking. What "other evidence" do you mean? Also, can you tell your current reads, and why do you like an SA vote?

[kortul]

Kort, what exactly is your read on 4n?

My read on him slowly shifting to the town side, but that's more of a general feeling and the fact that on day 2 i can actually understand his logic and like some of his questions and comments. It may be somewhat affected by the other game we are in right now, that is near the end, but until it is finished i can't be entirely certain how reliable is my understanding of 4nx as a player.

@Fishy - do you see Macro case as a separate case from Malee and theo? Ie does Macro or his slot look town for you? Because it isn't Macro himself but his predeccesors are the main reason why i see this slot scummy.

@Macro - your quote isn't complete. My understanding of DDD logic in his post is this: you know that VT should claim VT, yet your initial claim was different, explanation was just "i'm vanilla", therefore you are scum. I don't see things the same way, and actually don't understand both those who strongly believe that your claim is scum tell, and those who strongly believe that your claim is town tell.

Can you explain why are you "starting doubt 4nx townread"?

[kortul]

Kort, can you be more specific with examples regarding your 4n read? What logic, questions, and comments did you like from him and why?

I had trouble understanding (and therefore reading) him day 1, today i find him more logical, therefore he is slightly leaning town for me now. I don't rely on his general behavior after last month meta research, only on logic/interactions/votes. For example, I liked ISO 34, and agreed with:

it is too early for wagon analysis, you need at least one scumflip. I have to agree that I don't really like DDD's wide range negative attack on everyone.

In ISO 35 i understood logic in his answers to ISO 7 and ISO 8, and notation scum!Danny reminded me of the times when i was programmer. I liked questions/comments in ISO 36, good questions in ISO 39.

[kortul]

Fishy, when you will have time, can you answer my question as well? There are unanswered questions to DCL and Alice as well. We have a little more than a week left, but it isn't that much actually.

[kortul]

Fishy is back and kicking, after he voted DDD his wagon skyrocketed to L-1 in less then a day, but that's more because of last will mechanics, since Fishy + Rhinox together weigh 4 votes.

@SA - guess your question isn't for me either, DCL is still on a scummy side for me.

Speaking of DCL, i still want to hear the answers to my questions in 762/766.

[kortul]

...my head says macro is scum, my gut says he is town...dang it I'm going with my gut on this, I'm getting cold feet about lynching macro, this post doesn't feel like scum:

Unvote: Debonair

Can you claim?

unvote:macro
Vote:DDD

I actually agree that this post of Macro doesn't feel like coming from scum, but i can't say the same about your switch to DDD. You casually mentioned him like twice today, said nothing bad on Day 1, so what prompted you to vote him now? Give your opinion at least.

Where are the reads you promised like two weeks ago? You never answered my question on your case about Macro. While i disagreed with some of your points on day 1, i liked you general activity and logical thoughts, but today you are a shadow of yourself. I waited since you were V/LA, but after your return you are active all over the forum but not here. I do want to hear your thoughts and answers.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DCLXVI

[kortul]

I actually agree that this post of Macro doesn't feel like coming from scum,

Then why was your vote still on him until you swapped over to me?

When i went to sleep there was no unvote from Macro yet. And when the next day i checked the forum, you already switched. Also, that post didn't make Macro town, i just view him as less scummy now.

The people I'm leaning town on are rhinox, fishy and macro

Scum, DDD most of the people on his wagon are town I think so I am sheeping them by being on it. not sure about 4nxi3ty either but I can't back that up. Otherwise I have no idea about anyone's alignment despite having read through the thread twice now. Which takes forever with how long it is.

So, DDD is scum for you because most people on his wagon are town for you. Without you mentioning your thoughts on what's going on, how we should guess this? Rhinox is town for you since day 1; SA was for you on scummy side yesterday and you didn't mention him today; fishy for you was "scumbuddy of LS" yesterday, and you didn't mention him Day 2 until this post. When/why did fishy become town for you? Rhinox today said that the reads from DDD set him up "to be able to vote just about anyone", and i fully agree with this, but your absence of reads/thoughts allows you the same opportunity.

And i would like to hear your answer to my question, it may help me to understand you better:

-PR claim then VT claim, the temptation to bang my head against a wall for letting myself get tricked into thinking macro was town for that is very strong

DCLXVI

, i don't remember you commenting on Macro claim earlier, but this post implies you believed the claim before. What are the reasons for your opinion change (not on Macro himself, but on his claim)?

P.S. Macro, may i ask you what is your gender? Hope i am not rude, i am just confused sometimes by your behavior, and that may influence my read.

[kortul]

I took a close look at Macro case against DCLXVI, and one of his points prompted me to check something.

-One thing that makes me hesitant about calling macro scum because the players he replaced didn't play well is that

if I had been another player in the game, I would have definitely found funkybike's actions scummy

...yet I now know he wasn't scum... I other words, I'm open to the possibility that the people macro replaced just sucked, as opposed to being scum.

Funkybike:

This is more of a lurker hunt as opposed to scumhunt.

If I had not replaced for Funky I think a lynch on him would be justified.

DDD

- are those the examples of Amished tell? If yes, did you miss it during reread? If no, what is the difference from Macro case? I still not sure that i understand this tell correctly, and i don't believe in it without firsthand examples, but this fits your explanation.

[kortul]

I am at vacation for a week, but hopefully will have access to internet at least in the evenings.

@Macro - some of you actions and reactions are strange to me, in real life i saw them either from a females, or very emotional people. Guess you are emotional then. I am still trying to figure out how to read your actions.

@DDD - as to the context, this were first impressions after the initial reread, without questions asked, and amished-tell was already explained before, so most likely he was aware that it exists. What would be your answer now?

@DCLXVI - disappearing isn't an answer to questions.

[kortul]

DCL: Fishy scumread, Rhinox townread, Macro townread, null on DDD

Hmm, did you finish the reread? This is DCLXVI latest version:

The people I'm leaning town on are rhinox, fishy and macro

Scum, DDD most of the people on his wagon are town I think so I am sheeping them by being on it. not sure about 4nxi3ty either but I can't back that up. Otherwise I have no idea about anyone's alignment despite having read through the thread twice now. Which takes forever with how long it is.

[kortul]

Preview-Edited: Holding off a claim at 4nxiety’s request.

would like to see a post from rhinox before any sort've claiming/hammering happens.

Rhinox already posted, so holding off claim any longer is bad, DDD.

I really don't like today behavior and ignoring certain questions from DCL (still waiting for answers), but two votes ins't a pressure at all. I am back to Macro and content with lynching him, or hammering DDD on deadline if Macro wagon would be stuck.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Macrophage

[kortul]

I am back from my vacation, but still need a free evening to gather my thoughts and then to do ISOs on my suspects. Hopefully it will be today or tomorrow.

@

Magua

- have you completed the reread already? Are your thoughts today based on it, or just on the last events?

I don't agree that DCLXVI was the main counterwagon, it was the last counterwagon. For a long time it was DDD, after his claim the focus shifted (after post 928 and vote from fishy) to 4nx, who also claimed in advance, and only then DCL started rolling. If DDD or 4nx would be VT, chances are they would be lynched. Still, DCLXVI

was

L-1 counterwagon, just with fewer people thanks to a lastwill mechanics, so the main question is how likely that everyone there except Macro were town. I have to think more on this after ISOs.

DCLXVI

, can you help me with the following? I am confused by your "Just to be clear, I don't intend on voting macro or DDD wagons just to save myself from getting lynched as I think they are town." If you are town, you definitely know only your own alignment, so why sacrifice yourself for someone else? I don't see any scum motivation here, just don't understand the mindset, can you explain your thoughts?

[kortul]

No luck with free evenings so far, only halfway with the analysis. Magua, do you have the same problem with your reread, or are the reasons different?

hiplop - are you going to be more alive today?

PEdit: Hmm, what a wall from Fishy, will read tomorrow, not at 1 am.

[kortul]

Still too much work after the vacation to finish the analysis. So just a quick answer to rhinox/fishy "accusations".

For me vote isn’t an idol, but a working tool. I use it to grab an attention, apply pressure, make a statement, choose a lynch near deadline. I place it where I feel it is needed at the moment. Other tools are observations, questions. If I am sitting on someone for a long time, it means that other tools suffice, my vote isn’t needed somewhere else and this player is my main suspect atm. In all other cases I explain why I vote for someone, ask a question with a vote, or make a case. So look at the context of my votes, not statistics.

Don’t have time to do an ISO on myself, from memory during the day 1 Malee replaced and theo disappeared after I asked them questions, so voting them to catch an attention was useless, I used my tool elsewhere. Macro was all the time at L-2 or L-1, was answering questions willingly, and he wasn’t my main or only suspect, so no additional pressure was needed there, and I am always against ending the day earlier.

Post 141 – asking for thoughts and reads is a coaching now? I asked the very same thing half of the players through the course of this game.

Rhinox, don’t tell me about voting town reads near deadline, just look at yourself and fishy. I didn’t blindly jumped on LS, it took me more than a day to reassess the cases on him and whether I still believe him. LS was my town read for most of the day 1, our thoughts on who is suspicious were the same, he was actively searching. I had some doubts after his switch from Alice and said so, and after Nacho interrogation I found out, that LS lied about some things, and my doubts increased. The last blow to my read was his switch from Macro after Macro voted him – it didn’t fit my picture of LS town at all, especially the explanations. Since it was a day before the deadline, and all three wagons were on those whom I suspect, I decided to follow Nacho, who seemed to have a better picture of what is going on.

And forgive my ignorance, I wasn’t aware that courtesy is frown upon on this forum. If I suspect someone in a game, he/she is still a human being, and i talk the same way as I do in real life. I asked Macro

to do

something, he did, so I thanked him.

Fishy is back and kicking, after he voted DDD his wagon skyrocketed to L-1 in less then a day, but that's more because of last will mechanics, since Fishy + Rhinox together weigh 4 votes.

I wonder if this is kortul telling Macro to hammer? I really don't know why kortul would make this post otherwise. It's the only bit of "commentary" I can find in his ISO.

Fishy, you are strawmanning here, what Macro has to do with this comment? He was already sitting on DDD at that moment. Why i made this post? I express my thoughts/feelings/concerns all the time, and this caught my attention - the first time i saw lastwill mechanics in action (your wild jumps to 4nx and DCL are pretty good examples as well).

[kortul]

About LS - the problem isn't voting a townread to get a deadline lynch. The problem is voting a townread

over a scumread

at deadline when both are viable lynches - from absolutely everything you'd said in the game that point, I'd have expected you to vote Macro rather than LS at that point.

I do not see why kortul would have chosen to vote someone who had been a townread nearly the entire game over a slot he had considered scummy.

I explained it twice already, but will try to remember my thoughts and emotions at that time. And "the entire game" at that moment was equal "more than a half of day 1", without any flips, so all the reads were based on feelings, whether i agree or disagree with someone logic, and the activity.

1) At that moment i suspected Macro slot because of Malee/funky, but actually liked the game of Macro, except for a single opinion change on Voided.
2) I was impressed by Nacho, who came in and with a help of logic and careful questions revealed that LS lied about the reasons of his switch from Alice. Nacho become my strong town read, while LS moved to null - i didn't understand why he lied about vote switch, especially from Alice, who still was my main scumread.
3) Before i went to sleep i saw an answer from LS, that Macro claim didn't affect his read on Macro. In the morning i found out, that several posts and 2 hours later LS switched Macro to DDD, after Macro voted LS. I didn't understand the explanation at all, so came to conclusion that LS is simply trying to push DDD wagon, since Macro wagon was stuck, at the same time trying to appease Macro. My read on LS changed from null to leaning scum.
4) So when i made a choice,

all wagons

were on players who were leaning scum for me, just for different reasons. With less then a day before a deadline, i felt that Nacho has more understanding of what is going on, so decided to follow him, and voted LS. I checked several times to see whether Nacho changed his mind and switched, but there were nothing from him.

That's all i have to say on this, and if you still think that my intentions were scummy, so be it, i would rather devote my time for scumhunting, not explaining the same thing over and over.

Where was my vote at deadline? oh right. hammering macro. Don't even try to compare my vote on DCLX with your vote on LS, because its not the same at all.

I agree that it's not the same. You put your town read to L-1. I put my scum read to L-1. You made a correct choice after that, but that doesn't amend your previous votes.

DCL, we are not in a newbie game or near the deadline, if someone wants to hammer me, he will ask for a claim. Why are you so interested?

[kortul]

V\LA for weekend, yesterday forum was down, posting from kindle.

[kortul]

I was wrong about my free time after the vacation, and underestimated the amount of careful reading needed for any serious analysis. So until i find that time, i will settle for something more simple, taking into account that we have a scum flip now. All my thoughts are based on assumption that we have 3 scum in the setup (4 seems too much). I still lack forum experience, so will rely on my knowledge of RL games as well, since scum motives and general tells should be similar anyway, and moreso when the deadline is near (scum under time pressure tend to do more slips).

I'll start with stats and thoughts on wagons. DCLXVI, Magua/Alicewondering both were present on LS lynch, but absent from Macro lynch. They automatically enter my scum pool. Voided, DDD and rhinox were absent from LS lynch, but present on Macro lynch, they go into my town pool, but more on rhinox later. hiplop was on both wagons, but he hammered LS to avoid no-lynch, so goes into my town pool as well. SA and fish were absent from both wagons, but SA was much more consistent than fishy on days 1 and 2, so he goes into my town pool, and fishy to a scum pool.

Now, back to rhinox. During day 3 i got an impression that he believes that his hammer on Macro removes any suspicions from him, i find this reaction strange. I reassessed possible scenarios, and see two cases where he is scum (ie he is conditional scum for me). First case is DCL scum - after DDD and 4nx become invalid lynch targets and DCL wagon started rolling rhinox scum had to join it, waited for his partner claim, and then decided which sacrifice would benefit scum most. Second case is DCL town, and fishy scum - rhinox scum joined the wagon, but after the claim decided that 3 scum on the same wagon is too much and had to switch. So while he is in my town pool, when doing ISO on DCL and fishy i will watch for possible connections with rhinox.

After ISO on Macro and from what i remember on previous days events Fishy and Magua/Alice fit much better to be partners with Macro, but i don't see the Fishy-Magua scumteam at all. Moreover, Magua-DCL (and moreso Magua-rhinox) teams aren't likely for me, so if Magua is scum, third scum isn't among my suspects. Right now Fishy is more suspicious for me than Magua or DCL, will reasses after i will finally have time.

VOTE: Fishythefish

I think that equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads is correct description for Fishy play in this game, and even today it was true before Magua called him on this - after that me and Magua are his firm scum reads. What i find even more strange now, that while his scumreads were weak, his town read on Macro was strong enough to defend it. His defense of himself by giving a list of meta examples that his scum play is different is rather meh, since if the playstile changes are obvious, and he is aware of the difference, he can play against this meta whenever he likes. But such a playstile allows activity that i see from him for two days already - claim hunthing. During day 1 Fishy was following LS, but all those wagons died except for Macro. Next day was more productive, since he got 2-3 claims under the belt until the day ended (depending whether DCL is scum or not). Today he found two new targets.

[kortul]

Yeah here we go in [post]353[/post]

LS unvotes alice and votes funky. You are saying now and when you voted that is when you started doubting your LS read and moved him to null. But you didn't say anything then.

In fact, in [post]371[/post] you moved your vote right on to funky from alice as well. That is not consistent with the belief that LS moving away from alice made you suspect him.

You are actively twisting my words and factual information. My LS read moved to nul after Nacho revealed that LS lied about the switch, and that happened long after the switch itself. And post 371 was my first post after LS unvoted alice. Did you read it carefully?

I'll quote the relevant parts:

2)

I was impressed by Nacho, who came in and with a help of logic and careful questions revealed that LS lied about the reasons of his switch from Alice. Nacho become my strong town read, while LS moved to null

- i didn't understand why he lied about vote switch, especially from Alice, who still was my main scumread.

I don't see how admitting that points are valid makes Alicewondering less scummy now

, but move from funkybike1 brought him closer to her, and theomoaner is there as well (at least until i will hear an explanation from him). Basicly now i see all three almost equally scummy, with Alice still leading, but remaining on the same wagon with funky AND theo feels so wrong, therefore:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: funkybike1

[kortul]

Both scenarios are dumb. If I'm scum with DCL and macro, I did not have to join the DCL wagon, and I did not need a claim from DCL to decide which lynch would be more beneficial to me-scum. Second scenario I would see BEFORE placing my vote on DCL that 3 scum on the same wagon was too much if that is what I would have been thinking.

Those scenarios are dumb if you plan in advance. With 8 hours to deadline, seeing 2 wagons halted by claims, they are not dumb. You even said in the very same post that you panicked, though explanation for this reaction is beyond me. If you are town you shouldn't be worrying and panicking because of connections with those who are lynched, you should be worrying who is more likely to be scum.

If it helps people understanding my thinking at the end of the day yesterday, I heard people suggesting me as a scum partner to DCL and

I think I got a little spooked.

I started thinking what if I was wrong about funky/DCL all along, and I was worried if macro got lynched and was town, then DCL would probably be next, and if DCL was scum I could be mislynched for whatever connection ppl were seeing after that at a bad time if not lylo still very late in the game where mislynches hurt more. I looked at the wagons, I saw people I have called or suspected as scum all game (at the time) on the macro wagon, and I saw town reads (again, at the time) on the DCL wagon.

So I paniced

and voted DCL.

[kortul]

@Voided - i think that town should worry about making a bad judgement call. I don't see why would anyone panic because someone who they think is town may flip scum one day, unless they definitely know the result of future flip. Still, that's my experience from several years of RL games, so it may be wrong in a long forum game, in that case i am interested in a better description behind such panic. Maybe i will understand Rhinox logic and vote better then, or understand why he/Fishy/DCL all of sudden suspect me because i didn't land my vote on everyone whom i suspected.

@Rhinox - finally you come to the same conclusion as i wrote before - i do not have a goal to lynch you, you are in my town pool, with a possibility of being a conditional scum if DCL or fishy will flip a scum. And if you were carefully reading through my ISO, you would notice that my LS read didn't change in one moment, though apparently you were just skimming.

[kortul]

@Rhinox - I didn't understand the reasons for LS switch from Alice and said so, but since i had my own reasons for a switch at that time, i didn't gave too much thought to this matter. You are correct about 548 - that was the time when i saw the Nacho interrogation and the results, and my opinion on LS dropped to null. After that i started rereading, and near the end of it asked LS about his opinion on Macro claim, he answered that it hadn't influenced his read. In the morning i found out, that 2 hours later, after the Macro voted him, LS changes his opinion on Macro, and i still read the post 599 as an attempt to appease Macro.

VOTE: Fishythefish

I think that equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads is correct description for Fishy play in this game, and even today it was true before Magua called him on this - after that me and Magua are his firm scum reads. What i find even more strange now, that while his scumreads were weak, his town read on Macro was strong enough to defend it. His defense of himself by giving a list of meta examples that his scum play is different is rather meh, since if the playstile changes are obvious, and he is aware of the difference, he can play against this meta whenever he likes. But such a playstile allows activity that i see from him for two days already - claim hunthing. During day 1 Fishy was following LS, but all those wagons died except for Macro. Next day was more productive, since he got 2-3 claims under the belt until the day ended (depending whether DCL is scum or not). Today he found two new targets.

A few questions/comments on this:
1) What exactly do you mean by equivocating/not taking stances/not having reads? I think I've taken quite a lot of stances throughout the game. If you mean that my reads haven't been that strong, and have changed quite a lot, then that's not too far wrong.
2a) Whatever your answer to 1), why is that a scumtell? As in, why do scum do it, and why aren't I just town whose scumreads haven't been that strong?
2b) You seem to think my play today, specifically, is scummy. I think I spent a few days catching up - and saying I was - and then started posting good content that took firm positions. Do you disagree with that assessment? Why is my play today likely to come from scum?
3) What's the contradiction between having weak scumreads and strong townreads? That's where I've been all game, and I don't see why it's unlikely or scummy at all. I find it much more common for people to do things that scum wouldn't do than things that town wouldn't do.
4) On meta: I only gave a meta defence because Magua's attack is entirely

a meta attack

- check out his posting on me. I've never asked anyone else to look at that meta, although if they do I certainly won't complain. What should I have done when Magua said "X is a meta scumtell for you" and I know that to be completely false?
5) So, you think I'm scum who wagons people for claims? Scum's main activities (IMO) are a) trying to look town and b) trying to lynch townies. How important do you think getting claims is compared to those? Imagine yourself as scum. Would "getting claims out of townies" ever be the principle that dictated your entire strategy?
6) A minor point, but if you check your D1 facts you'll find I did hop around a lot, but a lot of the time the wagons followed me rather than the other way round (IIRC on Rhinox, Malee and one other I was leading or early on the wagon). Characterising me as wagoning scum (or wagoning town) isn't accurate for a lot of the wagons I was on, so your picture of claim hunting scum doesn't fit that well.

A quick answer.
1)I remember you giving reads only once or twice during the first two days, and flip-flopping a lot.
2a) Did i tell it to be a scumtell? I said that it allows you to perform claim hunting, and that is a scumtell for me.
2b) Today your style is changing, but even when you voted me, your opinion on me was "Nothing kortul says is particularly scummy.", and you picked some commentary that later admitted to be not scummy. Your opinion on Magua was "I don't have many strong feelings about this slot". And once Magua called you on not taking stances and having firm reads, you said your scum reads are strong.
3) Again, did i tell it to be a contradiction? Just now looking back, i find it strange that Macro town read was strong enough to defend it, but scum reads were not strong enough to stick to them or pressure them.
4) Hmm, i'll check Magua and your posts again, i was writing from memory and thought his suspicions were mostly based on you being the experienced mafiascum player. Still, i remember that you posted several links pointing that your town and scum plays are different, so if such a difference exists, you can easily play around it. For experienced players tells based on meta are not reliable, that's why meta defense isn't reliable either. I just explained why i don't take your meta defense into consideration, but at the same time i don't take into consideration meta scumtells either.
5) I am relying on my RL experience, where finding power roles earlier is important for scum survival. Lastwill mechanics means that votes stay in the game, so i doubt scum would be happy to find too many conftown at the end of the game. And Macro flip was

One shot

vanilla cop, which means that scum is limited in a ways of finding who is dangerous for them.
6) Maybe i am wrong on this one, i don't remember exact vote order. But claim hunting can be done with starting wagons as well, though it is usually less productive.

[kortul]

Will have limited access for two days, going on a business trip. Will be back on Friday.

[kortul]

Back. Hmm, this time i actually agree with fishy on the request to postpone a lynch. My personal opinion is that quick lynches are bad for town - most of the time they are not based on logic, but on gut/emotions/scum motives/join the crowd/etc. We are not near the deadline, why not give SA another day he is asking for? If he would be lynched anyway, we will either get more info to analyze if he is scum, or will know his thoughts more clearly if he is town.

I didn't plan to analyze SA today, but now will do an ISO on weekend to reassess my read.

[kortul]

I managed to finish an ISO on SA, mulled over it and still don't see him as scum. During days 1 and 2 he was consistent, his thought process isn't orthodox and that helps to take a look at the events from different angle, and i agreed with some of his thoughts. I don't like his play today, but it is not scummy by itself, and his list of suspects is close enough to mine. I doubt someone will be swayed by my reasons, but at least consider them, and wait for SA to finish his thoughts.

Meanwhile i will concentrate on my suspects. Magua play is active and consistent, i like the reaction of Fishy to SA wagon and don't like the DCL reaction, so my next ISOs will be on DCL and Fishy.

[kortul]

This evening i finally managed to find time to do thorough ISO on Fishy. I remembered what i thought was strange in Fishy defense post on Macro - at that moment Macro wasn't his strong townread, in the post "Macro generally looks town." There were some comments in other posts that felt out of place, but maybe i am just biased. I still don't like that claimhunting activity. But no one else commented on this, so i will ponder whether this tell applies to forum scumhunting, with lastwill mechanics in mind.

On the other hand his advice to 4nx in post 933 is good, and i doubt that first reaction of scum to mason claim would be giving such an advice. Also, i agree with his reaction to SA today.

I don't see SA as scum, and i am less sure of Fishy scum, so DCL being town because of counterwagon on him is less logical now, which brings him back as my main suspect. I don't like his play on Days 2 and 3, and will do his ISO next.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DCLXVI

[kortul]

Forgot to answer Fishy.

One thing that definitely doesn't tally with that picture - my play on DDD's claim. I went out of my way for him

not

to have to fullclaim.

I think you would do this regardless of alignment, because of this:

Excitement is fair - I like claims (and information-ish situations generally), because it's a part of the game I enjoy.

This was a challenge for your imagination, so not asking for full claim doesn't make you more town or more scum.

[kortul]

Rhinox, this time you are coming to the wrong conclusions using POE, but since our views on certain events are different, i don't see how to show this atm.

[kortul]

@Voided - i wasn't even able to convince Rhinox that he is wrong in the interpretation of my own actions, there's even less chance that he will agree with my view on others. I disagree with his view on DCL, and i am still researching DCL. But since SA lynch isn't so imminent now, hopefully i will be able to finish the research and address the points where i disagree.

@Rhinox - i was suspicious of funky, and i definitely don't agree that DCL play on Day 2 was solid town. I remember you thinking funky is town from the Day 1, and there were not many posts made by him, so i doubt we will persuade each other to change our opinion here. But i will give a try on DCL play once i finish my research.

I am glad SA was able to start his own research and post the first results - as i said in my read on him, it

is

a view from a different angle. Will read more carefully in the evening.

[kortul]

I finally managed to finish my ISO on funky/DCL, with meta check on funky along the way, and here are the results.

Spoiler: funky

I won't repeat the general things about funky since everyone has their own opinion on playing styles, just pinpoint two things. When i saw his reads post for the first time, one part caught my attention.

To me, it looks like this wagon on

Malee

is sort of forced; there is no relevant reason for her to be scum more than anyone else. LS's argument is based on pandering, which I find not to be a valid scumtell Day 1.

However, I respect other people's opinions

, and if this behavior continues from Malee, it will be very hard to dig out of the hole she created for herself.

I coudln't find a connection between the bolded part and the rest of the sentence, but if he knew the alignment of Malee, the phrase becomes logical from his POV.

After that he made some decent comments, answered the questions he wanted to, voted Alice, threatened to hammer Macro and dissappeared. Once again, if he knew the alignment of Macro and intended to /out, such a move makes a perfect sense. Threatening instead of quickhammering is usually seen as a town move, and removes some pressure from a slot, and the hammer itself never comes because of replacing.

I remember Rhinox and LS having opposite meta reads on funky, so took a quick look at his meta myself. I was able to find only town games, and his behavior changed from game to game, so i don't think that meta reads on him are reliable.

DCLXVI

:
His Day 1 play was ok, he was active, consistent and logical, focused. He was actively working on his LS case and that is town attitude in my eyes. His thoughts on the fact that LS lied were similar to mine. The thing i don't like is that he was casualy trying to shift suspicions from the slot to the bad play of funky or to lurkiness:

if I had been another player in the game, I would have definitely found funkybike's actions scummy...yet I now know he wasn't scum...

Funkybike:

This is more of a lurker hunt as opposed to scumhunt. If I had not replaced for Funky I think a lynch on him would be justified.

During Day 2 his behaviour was completely different. He is unsure of everything, after some subtle nudging from Macro votes him in the middle of the day, but drops his suspicions soon after that. Among the reasons for vote - claim, that wasn't commented by DCL before, and he never answered my question about it, repeated several times. After that Macro somehow became strong town read, he didn't vote him even to prevent his own lynch. Which is against his own beliefs:

As a townie I definitely try to avoid getting lynched, because I know my lynch will hurt the town.

But for DCL scum it makes sense - at that moment his lynch was really close, and he was ready to sacrifice himself to clear Macro spot by faking too strong town read.

His Day 3 is even worse. First he reminds everyone that he was a victim of scum driven counterwagon to Macro, with Fishy and SA scum. There is some logic in it so far. He votes Fishy, but once Fishy said that DCL isn't among his suspects, Fishy became town to DCL. Yet he didn't switch to SA. Instead he waited for something to happen, and once Rhinox and Fishy started a wagon on me he jumped there, asking for a claim. He copied the reason for voting me from Rhinox and Fishy, but while they were arguing their cases, he was just doing something else, not a single comment on anything i say afterwards.

Maybe that's because he actually doesn't want to show double standards?

Townies don't need to lie about why they change votes, scum do and it looks like LS has been acting pretty scummy here.

That was the reason why LS become null read for me. Farther, in posts 748 and 751 he finds scummy the attempts of Macro to call him town for dubious reasons and sees it as placating, yet he has no comments when i find the same behaviour from LS scummy.

Let's move on. Wagon on SA started, yet DCL makes no attempts to vote the only player remaining scummy on his counterwagon, doesn't even comment him. When wagon on SA rolled to L-1, and Rhinox said that he is ready to hammer, DCL finally joined the crowd. And what was his answer to Magua question? Kortul, Magua and SA were the only players he was ready to lynch, who at that moment were the only players for whom DCL wasn't a town read.

In the last portion of SA research DCL isn't scum anymore, so the next very thing SA becomes DCL weakest scum read, with town vibes. And who is now scum on his counterwagon?

So now i am sure that my vote is in the right place. And guess if Magua will say that DCL is town, i will remain his only suspect.

[kortul]

Actually. we have only 4 doublevoters now. But anyway, i understand what you are talking about, and while waiting for comments or arguments on my DCL case will do the ISO on the last player in my current scum pool - Magua. If there would be no support, then closer to deadline i will decide what wagon i am ready to support. The research from SA or fresh look from hiplop replacement can help to make the decision.

[kortul]

Fishy, Magua, DDD and hiplop replacement - what are your thoughts on DCL and my case on him?

@Voided, as far as i understand you are not going to vote DCL today, so can you at least give a feedback to my case?

[kortul]

Sorry for the wall, most of the answers require quotes. P-Edit: Hmm, will try to break in spoilers, hope that will work.

Spoiler: Macro nidging

During Day 2 his behaviour was completely different. He is unsure of everything, after some subtle nudging from Macro votes him in the middle of the day, but drops his suspicions soon after that.

As far as the playstyle change, I will admit that being completely wrong about LS was rather discouraging and made it difficult for me to figure out reads and such.

I don't see how macro nudged me to vote for macro, could you please show me that quote?

I kept my suspicious up on macro for a while, I dropped them after a while because I was overthinking the situation and then decided he was town. I know it's not the best explanation but that is what happened.

If it were a single post, i would quote it. Since the beginning of Day 2 four players were voting Macro - Voidedmafia, DDD, me and hiplop. You said twice that you don't like his read change on Voided, but other than that did nothing. Yet Macro included you in the list of those who were pushing him - "Really, the pushing on me from DCL, Debonair, Kortul, hiplop and voided are what I'd expect from scum". After some exchange he called you town, asked why weren't you voting him, etc. All that i called nudging, since at that time Macro was your only scum read, and you were doing nothing, so he had to casually wake you up. At least that's how i see this whole exchange - i don't see why scum would constantly pester town to finally vote him.

Spoiler: Sacrifice

After that Macro somehow became strong town read, he didn't vote him even to prevent his own lynch. Which is against his own beliefs:

As a townie

I definitely try to avoid getting lynched, because I know my lynch will hurt the town.

But for DCL scum it makes sense - at that moment his lynch was really close, and he was ready to sacrifice himself to clear Macro spot by faking too strong town read.

At the point where I was close to getting lynched was still during day two where I was really feeling uncertain about reads and stuff so that is why I wasn't willing just to throw out a vote on someone else I thought was town at the time.

Ok, you weren't unsure about reads and stuff, but you had to be sure that you are town, right? Then why didn't you "try to avoid getting lynched"?

Spoiler: Proof

He copied the reason for voting me from Rhinox and Fishy, but while they were arguing their cases, he was just doing something else, not a single comment on anything i say afterwards.

Want to show what I copied, how about some quotes, I'm confidant that I was not plagiarizing them, how about you provide some proof.

Here's the proof:

What I really don't like, and this is what makes me think kortul is scum, is voting LS at D1 deadline. LS was his strongest town read most of the day and the first time he said anything negative was when he voted him in that post at deadline. Actually he said he couldn't decide between his scum reads so he trusted his town read and sheeped nacho.

About LS - the problem isn't voting a townread to get a deadline lynch. The problem is voting a townread

over a scumread

at deadline when both are viable lynches

I do not see why kortul would have chosen to vote someone who had been a townread nearly the entire game over a slot he had considered scummy.

Spoiler: Explanation

That was the reason why LS become null read for me. Farther, in posts 748 and 751 he finds scummy the attempts of Macro to call him town for dubious reasons and sees it as placating, yet he has no comments when i find the same behaviour from LS scummy.

Not quite getting the point kortul is trying to make here. I don't recall LS trying to placate people, LS sure wasn't calling me town. This point by kortul is a little confusing.

Hmm, i will try to explain this differently. You found scummy and placating one player calling another player town for dubious reasons, and i found scummy and placating one player dropping suspicions from another player for dubious reasons. Hope this is more clear.

And what was his answer to Magua question? Kortul, Magua and SA were the only players he was ready to lynch, who at that moment were the only players for whom DCL wasn't a town read.

Hadn't noticed that, I don't think SA was calling me town when I made that list though.

Actually that's exactly what i have said. Only the players who

didn't think

you are town made it to your scum pool. (just in case you made a mistake in your answer - you were scum read for SA at that moment.

In the last portion of SA research DCL isn't scum anymore, so the next very thing SA becomes DCL

weakest

scum read, with town vibes. And who is now scum on his counterwagon?

his point is blatently false, SA was already the weaker scum read before his wagon came up.

Well, let's see:

Consider this Magua.

Maybe

I suspect SA more than I suspect you.

Kinda surprised at how wound up you are getting over this. Do you want me to be voting you?

@Voided
the lynch pool order doesn't matter.

The order would be Kortul, SA, Magua

, with a scum flip by SA clearing magua.

I don't want to lynch SA today, he is my weakest scum read

and I'm getting a town vibe from his recent posting...

I'd vote for either a magua or a kortul lynch

..

[kortul]

What do you think of his wagon on D2?

I already gave my thoughts before, but can elaborate since this is interesting interactions puzzle.

When during Day 2 i voted DCL to get answers to my questions, only Macro jumped there, which means that there was no real interest to DCL wagon in a middle of the day. Only near the deadline, when DDD and 4nx wagons died, the attention switched to DCL. First attempt was made by you, but Rhinox persuaded you to try rolling 4nx wagon. Second attempt was started by SA, you joined soon, and Rhinox followed. If SA or you are town, those votes are consistent with your Macro-town view, and say nothing about alignment of DCL.

I did no ISO on Rhinox today and didn't realize before, but SA noticed, that before his DCL vote Rhinox (with 2 votes) said twice that he would prefare Macro lynch to DCL. That means, that even if SA or you are scum and were paying attention on possible counterwagons to Macro, i don't see where you were going to gather enough votes for DCL lynch, and that was just a parking place, again telling nothing about DCL alignment (with an added bonus if he flips scum one day).

Once Rhinox joined the wagon and DCL become L-1, situation changed. DCL wagon become a real wagon, and if DCL is town, things were ideal for scum. But, if DCL is scum, scumteam was under pressure and had to choose quickly what to do. Your posts at that time showed no stress, SA made no posts, DCL refused to vote Macro, and right after that Rhinox jumped to Macro.

So, looking at this wagon, i can't convince myself it was serious scum driven attempt. Rhinox joined it unexpectedly, and 4 hours later switched to Macro. Analyzing this wagon isolated from everything else, it was either parking place for town and scum stuck at Macro-town read disrupted by Rhinox, or Rhinox had the dilemma choosing what partner to lynch, and decided to sacrifice Macro, making DCL and himself more townish in process. That's why i said before that Rhinox is conditional scum for me, since Rhinox-scum makes sense mostly with DCL-scum. And the only improbable pair is DCL-Fishy, that's why when i began to doubt my Fishy read, i returned my attention to DCL and happy with that decision now.

[kortul]

I hope this is just weekend lethargy. Had small window and started an ISO on Alice, but realized that there are lots of interactions, have to cross reference with other ISOs, so will continue tomorrow.

imaginality, welcome and were you able to read through the thread?

[kortul]

If you have a guilty then there is no need to post the rest of the analysis on Rhinox, once you flip no extra confirmation would be needed. Unless you noticed some relevant connections to living players there, in that case make short brief from phone while we are still in Twilight - you had original view most of the time, so that may help in future analysis. I used your findings from the first part of analysis in my answer to Fishy.

But why were you so apathetic in defending yourself?

[kortul]

*sigh* I was writing my thoughts, and somehow text just disappeared. Will try again, though i am dead tired after work and 2 hours of soccer, so it will be just first impressions for today.

At night I was thinking about SA provocation and Rhinox reaction. Initial impression was that it came from town. Then i noticed 4 hours difference, which means that Rhinox had plenty of time to do an ISO. I did the same, and realized that SA play on day 3 was against his guilty claim, so there's good chance that Rhinox comment was carefully prepared and tells nothing about alignment. But today Rhinox volunteered and said that he played along, which again makes him more town in my eyes.

That means my scum pool didn't change - DCL, Fishy and Magua. But DCL surprised me by switching back to Fishy, will think tomorrow how that fits DCL-scum scenario. Yesterday lynch did some changes to my wagons analysis. Magua/Alicewondering remains as the only player who was present on both town lynches, and absent from scum lynch. That strongly trigers my RL experience alarms.

I have thought already about the possibility that Fishy and Magua are just bussing each other, but that makes sense only if they would go to extreme, for everyone to believe that once one will flip scum another would become obvtown. And that is hard to achieve, the act have to be perfect.

1am, last thought before going to bed - i don't like both Magua posts today. He is surprised by the fact that hiplop was mason, not by the fact that hiplop was killed instead of Voided/DDD. And why on earth ask Voided whether he is mason? Basicly that's just plain asking for a claim.

[kortul]

I just don't see any reasonable logic behind the question. Let's suppose he will answer you, and say yes. Do you really expect someone to counterclaim him and paint bulls eye on himself? If not, then the only way to check the validity of the answer is to either lynch him(?), or wait for his death at night. And if the scum will left him alone at night again, then what - let's lynch him? Can't say for everyone, but Voided is town for me because of his play, not the possibility that he is mason.

If Voided is so suspicious that the only thing that is holding you is the possibility that he is mason, then say so and present the case or your suspicions. Because you have no way to check his answer anyway.

P-Edit. So he did answer yes. Magua, can you tell now the logic behind the question?

[kortul]

@Voided - 1259 are mostly thoughts about night, which is an explanation of 1254, how it is the reasonable explanation of 1257? He just said that he is asking for a claim, and i fail to see why. I doubt scum have two cops, and Macro was one-shot, so even if scum knew hiplop to be mason, they had no way to know whether you are the mason or not, so how your answer can shed the light on night actions? And if it can't then what is the reason for a question?

[kortul]

Well, my 1261 questioning was directed to Magua, i was distracted several time so you posted in between. And in 1262 i asked you how 1259 is a reasonable explanation of 1257 (maybe it is and i just don't see that), you should know your thoughts - or did i misunderstood your comment there?

[kortul]

Fishy, this is the first time i play with masons, so while logically i understand the idea behind masonry, so far i am not that impressed to think that 3 is way too much. So far his claim is believable, but to be sure i will check cross references between 4nx - Vincent/Voided and hiplop-Vincent/Voided. I will be busy the rest of the day, will make it in the evening or tomorrow (depends on how often they interacted).

[kortul]

Guess my impression that 3 masons isn't something overpowered was correct.

I did a check of Vincent/Voided - hiplop/4nx interactions. Overall impression - Voided is telling the truth:
Vincent at first though that hiplop was leaning scum, then hiplop become neutral, Voided mentioned hiplop once or twice, nothing negative. hiplop almost didn't react to Vincent, and completely ignored Voided.
Both Vincent and Voided completely ignored 4nx. 4nx commented "vincent's malee vote and reasoning looked good as well, though his comments about hiplop didn't quite sit right with me.", after that both Vincent and Voided were town to him, he almost ignored them.

The fact that both 4nx and hiplop left the voted to Voided is also telling.

Last post of Magua makes more sense for me, some of his thoughts mirror mine, but i still don't understand why ask for a claim? We could speculate on whether this setup is believable without it.

[kortul]

Quick post from kindle. Internet at home died on Saturday, will be fixed on Tuesday (national holiday tomorrow). LA until then.
Presented this way (Rhinox reaction) makes sense - then it is just proof of good player (ie logic/intellect), not an alignment tell.

[kortul]

Still on kindle. I am VT.

@Magua - i can't read you logically at all. All this info was there on day 3, yet you were on Fishy and SA. And how can you be seen softclaiming investigation on Fishy when you happily switch to SA and sit there until the end of the day? But if you needed my lynch you could do it when i was at L-2, that makes you less likely to be scum... I want my internet back and finish the research

[kortul]

I have my internet back, working on finishing the research on Alice/Magua, will think over gathered data and post together with conclusions tomorrow. I begin to think that forum games are not for me - i hate replacements! I find Alice play scummy, and Magua play mostly town with some odd posts. I could easily see DCL-Alice team, but don't see DCL-Magua team. Logic is smoking in the corner...

@Fishy, i wonder, did you have a feeling yesterday that Magua had some kind of investigation on you?

[kortul]

Ok, here are the results and conclusions of my research. It took some time, since i had too many thoughts and comments, had to cut some, and there are lots of nuances, hope i managed to present them clearly after translation.

There are several things that i find scummy about Alice. Right at the beginning of the day 1 Alice stated in 102 "If Malee flips scum, LS becomes scummier." At that moment it prompted only the mild question why, and the answer was "He's vouching for her in a way that doesn't exactly feel genuine to me." This link was asymmetrical and not logically connected to an explanation. If she felt that LS vouching wasn't genuine, it makes him simply scummier, not if Malee flips scum. So reading this now i have the feeling that she knew who is who, and subconsciously created the link based on this knowledge, not just on the posts available at that moment.

I don't like inconsistencies between her words and actions throughout the game, and said so to her on day 1.

She "missed" the 180 of theomoaner on her, even though he was her main suspect at that moment - which means she didn't really read his posts, or didn't want to draw attention to his slip. After Macro claim she dropped the suspicion on him, and switched to DDD. But then she starts day 2 with:

I'm going to hold off

on a Macro vote at least for today.

Again it was inconsistent, since she already said that she thinks that Macro is town.

Her defence on day 1 was just admitting some points and ignoring everything else:

@Alice: Weren't you telling me I was wrong when I posted my case though? So now the points are valid?

Your points are certainly valid, but you've reached the wrong conclusion.

Before she replaced everyone was actually town or null to her, which together with pacifying defence allowed her to be out of focus of attention, yet join whatever wagon she felt like joining.

Which brings us to another point. I find really scummy the indifference about lynching:

Last, it didn't change my mind.

Also not liking how every single wagon is dissolving more and more as we get closer to deadline. We NEED to actually lynch someone.

Deadline's a week away. I'm not that concerned. A lot can change in a week, and we have Malee's replacement just in.

[quote="In post 823, "Alicewondering"]Kortul, I don't really have great reads right now. I have mostly town reads and null or null-scum reads. SA is scumread. Fishy is a null read as well.

I'll consider other people when someone flips today.

[/quote]She really doesn't care who is going to be lynched.

I remember from ISO on Macro that Alice/Magua fit to be his scum partner, and decided to check connections with the rest of my scum pool. Alice immediately reacted when Fishy tried to link her with funky:

Not all that much. It's not particularly unlikely that scumfunky would be bussing here - his partner would be in trouble, and I can easily see scum not bothering to make much of a case because they know they're right. And if funky is town, his vote says nothing about Alice's alignment.

If funky is scum, his vote means nothing as well to my alignment. I'm an easy lynch target now that a wagon has grown on me.

As for connections with DCL, Alice kept asking players (LS, SA, Fishy) why DCL is scum for them. I found no strong or suspicious connections with Fishy. So i can see only DCL-Alice team.

Next about connections of Magua. Magua-Fishy team is unlikely, and DCL-Magua team looks forced, given their day 3 play, but still possible, since they weren't building any cases on each other, or voting, just arguing.

Here enters Magua. Most of the time i have a feeling that he is playing town game - his play is consistent, he is active, sometimes too much for my taste, but i always think that activity is good for town regarldess where it comes from (unless it is really disruptive by nature). One thing i don't like is that his activity goes away at the end of the day (both days 2 and 3).

Posts that i find scummy are:

Or to put it another way, there's a 100% chance in my mind, and as far as I can tell, everyone else's, that (Magua, Fishy, Sleepless, DCL) contains at least 1 scum.

There is a non-insignificant chance (for me, personally, > 66%) that it contains 2 scum.

In his own mind he includes himself in the pool of suspects.

How the fuck was hiplop a mason?

I just don't see how this question translates into the explanation:

I fully expected Voided to die last night.

I'm surprised a) that hiplop was a mason, and b) that he was shot in preference to Voided.

Also, I figured it would be more likely that I'd be seen as soft-claiming some investigation on him that way, and if I was right (I always think I'm right), more likely that I'd be NK'ed over someone who was actually a PR. (In retrospect, that was never going to happen with the masons, but whatever.)

His general activity and some of his posts throught days 2 and 3 indeed look like he has some kind of guilty on Fishy. But Alice never said anything bad about Fishy during day 2, so Fishy-scum won't believe the replacement faking guilty. I think Magua is smart enough to realize it, unless he never took a look at Alice ISO, in that case his explanation looks even more strange - how can you pretend to have a guilty on someone, if you have no idea what your predecessor said about the player?

There are three logical scenarios where his explanation makes sense (one is too improbable, so i won't explain it):
1) Magua is town, who was lazy to read Alice, somewhere on day 3 realized that his gambit won't work, and switched gears, but told so only today.
2) Magua-X (not Fishy) scum team, with Magua aiming for one-shot PR claim during LyLo/MyLo on future days with guilty on Fishy (on Night 2). That explains surprise when hiplop flipped mason, with a request to Voided whether he is mason as well, since 3 masons together with secretary make it hard to claim any more PRs. Massclaim today eliminates any remaining possibility for such a claim, since timing is wrong (not in LyLo).

I was meditating on these scenarios for some time, and still can't figure out which one is more likely. Right now i am inclined to believe him, mostly because yesterday i also was thinking on how to draw NK, but figured that i am an easy lynch target and scum won't bite on any gambits.

So i am torn between Alice-scum and Magua-town. Therefore my vote goes back to DCL, i am more sure about him being scum.

VOTE: DCLXVI

I was thinking about his today switch to Fishy, and come to conclusion that it doesn't change anything. So i urge everyone to read my case on DCL, and my answers to his defense. Give your feedback. Also, those who were on his wagon (or think he was counterwagon to Macro), make sure you are not affected by some guilt posteffects, take another look at the wagon and make a reality check - do you see any scum on his wagon other than Macro?

[kortul]

@Voided - if you missed the "investigation" part in the initial post of Magua, Fishy already gave brief description, and i analyzed it in my Magua research as well. If you rather asked about my question or Fishy answer, i decided to logically continue the revelation of Magua, and my question was slight provocation directed at Fishy, which he passed.

I read the case from DDD and answers from Rhinox several times, and fail to see the case - it is mostly personal view, rhetorics, or attacks on inactivity. And i definitely see no scum motivation in giving SA time to post thoughts - he actually found time and gave his thoughts, and they cam from town, whether you like those thoughts or not. Not everyone used that time to do something (and this is the thing i don't like about Magua activity, for example), but i am glad i had that window to do research on SA, finish ISO on Fishy, and complete research on DCL, present it and argue it. Also, DDD, you called Rhinox on not hammering SA, but didn't mention the same from DCL. As i said, i see no scum motivation in not giving time to SA, but why do you apply this as scum tell only for Rhinox? I think this is what Rhinox tried to ask you as well.

DCL, you already tried to argue my case, and failed, so now you call it pitiful. Meh.

[kortul]

Hmm, that's actually interesting scenario, will check that period myself over weekend and see if my conclusions will be close. Though, i remember that at that moment i thought Macro unvoting while asking for a claim was a town move, and DCL actually gave this as a reason to switch from him to DDD, so that was a smart move on Macro side. And another thing - after DDD softclaimed Fishy with 2 votes quickly unvoted, so i am not sure whether there was a window for Macro to hammer, will check that as well. Hmm, wait, if he had a window to quickhammer in a middle of a claim, then if DDD is town that would be death sentence to Macro, and if DDD is scum - can't assess the reaction shift towards Macro right now, have to read when exactly was the window for hammering.

[kortul]

Magua, this isn't some newbie game, so conclusions based on straight newbie tells from an experienced player isn't what i expected from you. Macro didn't quickhammer DDD before he started claim therefore DDD is scum? Macro switched to DCL therefore DCL isn't scum? Let me continue this simple logic - Magua lynched two town and didn't lynch scum - he must be one hell of a scum. It all works with people who don't know how to play properly, are trigger happy and live in a current moment, not thinking about the past or planning ahead. Right now you suspect that i am scum who was bussing Macro, yet you don't even think that Macro could be bussing DCL. For all we know he could be bussing both DDD and DCL, we don't know who is his main account to find out how likely this is and what is his base scum behavior. We don't know whether Macro thought his lynch is inevitable or not, whether he needed to survive that day to tell his results to scummates or not, whether he was serious about lynching DCL or had the luxury to leave fake tells, just in case he was lynched that day.

Your vote by vote history was actually more interesting than that "didn't hammer" tell, i still intend to take a close look myself on that period during this weekend, it takes time since ISO's don't help with this, and you have to have whole picture in a head at once.

[kortul]

Macro didn't quickhammer DDD before he started claim therefore DDD is scum? Macro switched to DCL therefore DCL isn't scum?

How about: Macro didn't quickhammer DDD, instead unvoted and asked for a claim. Before he received this claim, he put his vote somewhere else. When DDD claimed, and by claimed I mean, said "I'm a one-shot PR but I'm not going to tell you what," Macrophage said, "Okay, person whom I've been pushing all Day, I believe you" and left it at that.

How about you follow the facts, not your memory/imagination?

Macro and DDD both at L-1.
847:

Macro

unvotes DDD (L-2 now) and

asks for a claim

.
855:

Fishy

- "

I don't think DDD should be claiming right now

. There's noone ready to hammer AFAIC, and there's no great time pressure."
860:

DCL

comes from V/LA, unvotes Macro (L-2 now) and votes DDD (

L-1

now) with no explanation
865: I am tired by DCL day 2 behavior, unvote Macro (L-3 now), and vote DCL to finally get his thoughts and answers
866:

Macro

votes DCL as well, with a strange emotional context.
874:

Rhinox

- "I'd switch my vote to macro before DCL if DDD isn't going to be lynched."
886:

Hiplop

- "DDD's death isn't something I'm against, i was pretty vocal early on , I think.

I'm open to hammer, just I believe we should wait a bit.

"
888:

Macro

- "@Hiplop: What are you waiting for? Intent to hammer.

Debonair, claim

."
895:

4nx

- "

would like to see a post from rhinox before any sort've claiming/hammering happens.

"
896:

DDD

- "Holding off a claim at 4nxiety’s request."
897:

Magua

- "But if I can't get any traction on fishy, I would far, far, far, far rather hammer DDD than DCL or Macrophage at this point."
906: Rhinox catch-up post.
912: With 2 days to deadline i switch back to Macro (L-2 now).
913:

DDD

started claim
914:

Fishy

unvotes DDD (L-3 now), ans starts interrogation
921: Interrogation finished, Fishy votes DCL
927:

Fishy explains his understanding of DDD role.

928:

Rhinox

- "Fishy: Switch to 4nx with me? <...> Otherwise, if I have to choose between macro and DC today I see myself choosing macro."
929:

Fishy

unvotes DCL and votes 4nx
930:

DCL

unvotes DDD (

L-4

now)
931:

4nx

votes DDD (

L-3

now)
932:

Macro

is back, unvotes DCL, ignores 4nx wagon and votes Voided

Guess we can stop here, and analyse Macro move. He is at L-2, DDD at L-3 with some unusual PR claim, 4nx at L-5 (but potentially at L-2 pretty soon). If he wants to go down, his best option is to either attack DDD claim (let's lynch PR), or jump on started 4nx wagon (4nx was his townread for a long time). His switch to Voided, who is voting him already anyway, means that Macro isn't ready to go down - he perfectly emulated town behavior.

So either DDD is partner, or Macrophage thought he could survive his lynch, or Macrophage was being bussed and going down for the towncred. Those are my three operating theories.

So, following my previous analysis of events i believe that Macro thought he could survive, and was doing all he can with that goal in mind. Actually, i don't see why those are three separate scenarios? How Macro desire to sirvive excludes the possibility of DDD being his partner (they could be bussing each other), DCL being his partner (same here), or that Macrophage was being bussed for towncred.

Actually, attacking his partners at that stage makes sense for Macro - if he somehow succeeds in a natural way, he will gain town credits needed to survive, and if he fails, this would be perfecr cover for a partner later on. After Rhinox said twice that he would rather lynch Macro than DCL, i don't think Macro viewed that wagon as something realistic anyway.

[kortul]

And in case it isn't obvious from a previous post, i was carefully reading that period looking for clues on why Macro didn't hammer DDD. He had a window between posts 860 (DCL put DDD at L-1) and 914 (Fishy put DDD at L-3 once he started claim). He could hammer inbetween without claim but what would be the results?

1) DDD is scum. Macro hammering without waiting for claim would bring more questions than town credits.
2) DDD is town. Macro hammering without waiting for claim would ruin his town image forever. At least three others (me, hiplop and Magua) said that they are ready to hammer DDD closer to deadline, and unless Macro checked DDD at night, he has no idea that DDD is PR. So he would hammer only if he is wants to go down and is content with trading with VT in process (and analysis shows that he wasn't ready to give up).

Once DDD claimed, hammer option wasn't available, and for the rest of analysis read my previous post.

[kortul]

DCL's V/LA was till Thursday, 4/26.

His unvote of Macrophage/vote on DDD occurred on Saturday, 4/28, three days after his V/LA was over.

You can see from his posts on this site (hope this link works) that he was posting Thursday through Saturday on site, just not in this thread.

With Sleepless' L-1 vote on DDD at midnight 4/27, and DCL being on the site and posting in other games, I think the argument holds water.

Water it is. Magua, you noticed the same thing that was a final straw for me to switch to DCL to get the answers - he was active everywhere but not in this game. Let's analyze the context and DCL options. I will post times how i see them (probably according to my time zone).

826 SA - "The two sharing a PM doesn't mean scum. It just means they share alignment. I don't understand how so many people can vote Bike, yet DCL seems to be a common town read. I'd actually like to hear what everyone saw in DCL that was more townie than Bike was scummy."
839 (Fri Apr 27, 2012 7:21 am): SA - votes DDD
844 (Fri Apr 27, 2012 7:19 pm): 4nx - votes Macro, "

thats two wagons with 6 votes, both are at L-1, alice is the deciding vote

."
845 Voided asks a question "Speaking of the VCA, DCL, are you going to go back to it?"
848 (Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:51 pm) I ask a question as well "Speaking of DCL, i still want to hear the answers to my questions in 762/766."
849 (Sat Apr 28, 2012 2:33 am): Macro - unvote DDD

In 826 SA started asking those who suspected funky why DCL is town for them, shifting some of attention to DCL. In 839 SA votes DDD, yet he doesn't mention that this is L-1. Macro is still at L-2. 12 hours later 4nx votes Macro, making them both at L-1, stating that for the first time (no vote count in between) and asking Alice to decide. Voided and me ask DCL questions. 4 hours later Macro unvotes DDD asking for a claim.

So, at first there was a 12 hours window when DDD was at L-1 (it wasn't obvious since only 4 people were voting him) and Macro at L-2. Even if he was aware of vote count, there's no reason for DCL-scum to walk in and hammer DDD. He could ask for a claim, but that means quickly finding a reason to suspect DDD and/or drop suspicion from Macro. After 4nx post both Macro and DDD are at L-1, and he actually said that vote count aloud. Looking at DCL activity, his next appearance on forum after 4nx post was on Sat Apr 28, 2012 1:08 am. That's hour and a half before Macro unvoted. So this is the second window where he could hammer DDD, now with the added incentive to save his partner. But problem is even worse now - to ask for a claim he has to quickly find a reason to suspect DDD, and to hammer without claim means trading

both DCL and Macro

with possible VT (the link would be really strong, so once one will flip scum another would follow). What for? And that's not taking into account possibility that both DCL and DDD are scum (if that's the case, we can only speculate on DCL thoughts).

Stuff from kortul that starts with the assumption that I didn't read all that when my posts have been very clear that I read all that.

Not true. Of course you read all that, and gave links in your first post, but instead of analyzing posts together with context, you just gave your interpretation that was missing relevant facts (like Fishy interrogation and claim explanation, or players unvoting DDD accepting the claim) and with logic that is faulty (like all three your scenarios are possible together).

P.S. I like your dialogue with DCL today, it is funny:
DCL: I'd like today to end with either a fishy, mag, or kort lynch.
Magua: 3 days. Literally zero other support for a Fishy wagon. What, exactly, were you waiting for?

(zero support for your wagon either)

DCL: I'll have a vote down tonight on someone other than fishy

(guess who it is, without zero support?)

[kortul]

Hmm, did you answer to me, Void? What isn't true? At the moment between "fishy, mag or kort" only my wagon has votes (ie "without zero support"), so my comment was sarcastic, since the way it is asked the question of Magua translates into "DCL, why aren't you voting kortul?".

But i agree with Magua, we are more or less close to deadline and it is time to make decisions. I don't like the general apathy of the town, only Magua is active, even though he suspects me because of PoE while defending DCL, but he is doing something and stirring the pot, and some of his moves were actually good, they gave food for analysis and discussions. And DDD did a move towards Rhinox, but the case itself is meh. What everyone else is waiting for? There are few interactions, even fewer cases, what will we do if it comes to LYLO one day - flip a coin whom to lynch? There's chance that you won't be the decision maker, Voided, but you do hold 3 votes, and are the closest thing to conf town that we have, so if you have time and energy to do it, read the DCL case and today discussions again.

[kortul]

Void, who of the remaining players knows you well enough to predict or manipulate (or just well enough, if you are not sure about the rest of the question)?

Updated my will, though i am struggling to figure out who is my second strongest town read, will reassess after i'll know who is lynched and the results of the flip. I believe we can change our will at night as well? Hmm, i just realized, that now i don't know whether my strongest town read should be first or last. Hell, Magua, you sure know how to spread paranoia, i understand the Voided question now.

[kortul]

Magua, during previous days i updated my will during the day closer to deadline (if my top town reads changed), or during twilight after the flips. Tomorrow i'll be auditing another company and have a meeting after work, so i doubt i will have access to internet to adjust my will before the night comes.

[kortul]

I checked sent wills and realized that i was wrong, i actually updated my will at night before. I went to bed before the day 1 lynch happened, and in the morning i saw that LS was lynched and the results of the flip, read the following discussion and sent an updated will to Llama. It felt like posting, so in my memory it remained as twilight, not night 1. During days 2 and 3 i updated my wills close to deadline, and both times the flips didn't affect my strongest townread. I am off to bed now, will check the forum once in the morning, and as i said will be unavailable until late evening.

[kortul]

I am off to work, and unless i will find a free wifi for a kindle, won't be able to post. I still believe DCL is scum and the correct lynch for today. And Magua, if you are town, i do hope DCL isn't your

strongest

townread, considering the last will mechanics and the real possibility that you may be lynched.

[kortul]

I am glad we managed to do it. Macro and DDD, thanks for the game. Everyone else - i enjoyed playing with you as well. It was an interesting game, mechanics, and setup. I have several thoughts about the play and setup.

First - about setup. Last Will mechanics is really interesting, but if the town makes a mistake of gathering enough votes in one slot, it just doubles the amount of right choices the town has to make to win the game. Basicly, once Magua gave his 2 votes to Voided, instead of 2 LyLo city had 2 LyLo + 2 GwTLo (Guess who is Town or lose). For town to win Voided has to correctly guess at night at least 1 town player (GwTLo #1) to pass votes to, that town player becomes conf town, but has to decided LyLo #1 by himself. If he does the right choice as well, during the night he has to correctly guess yet another town player (GwTLo #2), and during the day that player has to decide LyLo #2 alone as well.

So chances for scum to win in such scenario (if votes are not spread, but concentrated) are higher than in ordinary game, and the more scum survive until the end game, the more tough it is for a town to win. Especially since most likely those scum who survive until the end look like town (otherwise why did the made it there?). Is there a way to fix that? Either town has to spread votes, but that just means the game is played like a game without mechanics, or all the players have to be real good, to make correct decisions in the end. If masons survived until the end maybe game would be more townsided, but i am not sure about that. I still feel that masons weren't the force i expected them to be.

About the game itself - it was my first game as a scum in the forum game. That's interesting experience, but i enjoy playing town more - it gives more work for brains All my cases were real, and i played exactly the same as i would as town. One exception was day 1 - i really have no idea whether i would vote LS or Macro if i were town. Not DDD for sure, but i was sincere about LS, and i couldn't "just forget" that i am scum to decide whom would i vote as a town. Macro actually did a good job of almost climbing out of the hole where Malee and theo left him. The only moment that bothered me is already mentioned by DDD - i switched to DCL for exactly the reason i said - to get his reads and thoughts, and immediate emotional jump was something i didn't expect at all Claim of DDD was unexpected, i am glad i was away since i would join interrogation just out of curiosity

Is it possible to see the dead QT (if it exists) and mason QT?

[kortul]

[url=http://quicktopic.com/47/H/cZ3imP7y8iB]My post-lynch PM to Llama, which amuses me more in hindsight:

Welp, I'd like to think I at least redeemed myself for flaking out of Last Will II.

Do you have a Dead QT?

If you don't, I'm going to say kortul + DDD, how awesome/terrible am I?

The goal of scumhunting is not to find a scum, but to find and persuade town that you are right. It doesn't help if you die with the knowledge that you were right, i learned it from a lot of RL games. Forum has an added bonus, that once you flip everyone knows that you were town, but that doesn't mean they will believe your reads - after all, you were suspicious enough to lynch you, so why should they believe you after death?

You were against my lynch on D3, then i was scum because of PoE on D4, and by the end of D4 i become strongest scumread. But you did no cases on us, so that was still PoE from your point of view. I didn't even try to defend, since there were no accusations. You were right, but to prove that you needed a lot of work to do.

One question to you, Magua - you suspected both DDD and Rhinox (to a lesser extent) when you made you final reads post, and you knew that Voided has them as town, so why did you give your votes to Voided? Just think ahead - if Voided is town he is going to die with 5 votes total, and will pass them to HIS town reads, so chances of DDD/Rhinox getting votes are close to 100%. That's why i said that Last Will mechanics makes it harder for town to win in the end - you have to think ahead and sometimes make not straight decisions.

[kortul]

The game is over, don't take it personally, i am not attacking you. That's more like a thoughts aloud. If that sounded like patronizing, i am sorry.

[kortul]

A ghost!

Welcome