Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Thestatusquo]

Tbf boon is scum even when he isn't.

[Thestatusquo]

Votecount 3.17

Cogito Ergo Sum(5)

~ Lycanfire(55), Davsto(26), northsidegal(105), LicketyQuickety(290), Thestatusquo(146)

Thestatusquo(3)

~ Ranmaru(372), Dunnstral(13), Cogito Ergo Sum(62)

Ranmaru(1)

~ Marquis(26)

Dunnstral(1)

~ ActionDan(60)


Not Voting (1): Gamma Emerald(164)

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2018-03-02 07:15:00)

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Performed 19 calls in 232 seconds. With an average of 12.2580526315789 seconds per call.

[Thestatusquo]

What do you think is going to change between now and then?

[Thestatusquo]

Well, I'm going to leave for work soon. I trust that someone hammers someone before deadline. I might check in tonight at home but I might not.

Please guys just don't let us NL and put us back in this same position tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

*from work.

[Thestatusquo]

Can you talk to me about who you think is scum upon CES town flip, and CES scum flip? I want Shea dead tomorrow if CES flips town today.

Coincidentally, I want YOU dead tomorrow if he flips scum.

[Thestatusquo]

hey @gamma please don't go to sleep or something without hammering.

both gamma and dan have promised to hammer at deadline.

[Thestatusquo]

how is my vote scummy.

you realize that you're suggesting I'm "scummily" moving on to the lynch of one person who would be my buddy if ces flips scum, while at the same time have been hard attacking and trying to suggest the other person you're suggesting as my buddy (dunn) all game.

How does that grouping make ANY sense to you.

[Thestatusquo]

Like I do not understand how you could possibly think I'm scum in a world where both ces and dunn are scum.

I understand ran's perspective much better, since a me-gamma-lq team does on its surface make sense.

[Thestatusquo]

meanwhile, I'm over here being counter wagoned. I don't understand why you're just ignoring all available evidence.

[Thestatusquo]

dunnestral is not voting CES nor has he voted him at all today. I know because I made the same mistake and assumed he had but he did not. He's voting me.

[Thestatusquo]

Excuse me what?

[Thestatusquo]

Do you see CES anywhere in his reads?

he gave a read list for tomorrow....which leaves off the obvious todays lynch because its not relevant to tomorrow...

[Thestatusquo]

like what the actual fuck that is the most brain dead attack I've ever heard in my life and I've had to listen to LQs attacks on me all game.

[Thestatusquo]

are you really this dense?

[Thestatusquo]

people frequently do in case they're killed at night. you literally just had a conversation with nsg about her reads for tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

ok so even if you believe that which, heaven help you I guess...how the fuck does not including him on the list at all imply he has any knowledge of ces' alignment?

[Thestatusquo]

no, but I think that the confluence of evidence suggests the exact opposite of your read and you're ignoring it.

there are like 2 individual factors here that make me unlikely to be buddies with ces specifically.

the first is that it would require me to be hard bussing on scum buddy while trying to also bus your other scum read.

the second is that I am being counter wagoned, coincidentally but the literal three people I think are scum.

I don't think I'm cleared for those two things, but it seemed to me that you're saying that I'm more likely to be scum with ces than anyone else, and I just think the opposite is true. I think my actions look way worse with a ces town flip than a scum one.

[Thestatusquo]

I also think the balance of my play has been pretty town as well, I think thats what should clear me, but obviously you disagree there.

[Thestatusquo]

CES and you both have tip toed around each other. He's only voting you because this is his last chance for survival.

bullfucking shit.

I many times engaged about ces specifically. I talked ces meta and why it led me to a null town read, I even did it with you personally.


then he responded to north and that response was garbage and didn't fit with the town meta I was referencing the whole game, so I changed my mind.

we literally had conversations where I added onto conversations about ces you were having.

this is just straight up fucking false.

[Thestatusquo]

I also think the balance of my play has been pretty town as well, I think thats what should clear me, but obviously you disagree there.

Between you and I, who has tried to influence the game more and why?

you, because you don't seem to care who is lynched as long as its not your scum buddy over there at l-1 right now.

you have tried to test the waters on almost literally every player in the game today and we ended up with like the literal one you were half hearted about.

I, on the other hand, prefer to vote for who I think is scum, and not call 3 people scum and then the next minute tell them to vote with me on my next sure fire cant miss scum team.

[Thestatusquo]

I have tried to influence the game by voting my scum reads and attempting to get people to vote for them. I literally wrote a case on eddie day 2.

Your characterization of my play is just flat out wrong.

Also, scum players try to influence the game too. I don't even know what point you think you're making.

[Thestatusquo]

no, but I think that the confluence of evidence suggests the exact opposite of your read and you're ignoring it.

there are like 2 individual factors here that make me unlikely to be buddies with ces specifically.

the first is that it would require me to be hard bussing on scum buddy while trying to also bus your other scum read.

"hard bussing"? is all you mean by that your vote here? because nowhere else in the game, if i recall correctly, were you really pushing on cogito ergo sum. to that, i would ask – do you expect scum lynches in white flag to be entirely composed of town? if not, then i'd expect that certainly you can at least understand where i'm coming from and why your vote on cogito ergo sum isn't necessarily very impactful evidence and why i think a review of the game before this stage would hold more weight than looking at this vote here.

the second is that I am being counter wagoned, coincidentally but the literal three people I think are scum.

I don't think I'm cleared for those two things, but it seemed to me that you're saying that I'm more likely to be scum with ces than anyone else, and I just think the opposite is true.

I think my actions look way worse with a ces town flip than a scum one

.

yes, you're being counterwagoned – like i said, i think at face value that this

is

a valid point. my inner confirmation bias wants to just scream "distancing!!!" but i wouldn't be comfortable saying that with any level of confidence without really reviewing this whole end of day in-depth.

in response to the bold, that's something i don't think you've mentioned before – what about

your

actions make less sense as scum in the case of town cogito ergo sum?

by hard bussing I simply mean adding momentum to a lynch. CES wasn't a foregone conclusion until I voted him. Gamma was still waffling, he wasn't ADs first choice, ranmaru is dead set opposed. Dunn is off in nowhere land.

I had been slight town reading ces before that, and my jumping on the wagon made it way more likely to happen than if I had aggressively pushed dunn there.

I'm not trying to claim the wagon was my doing or that I was pushing ces before this wagon, but I think downplaying my role on it by calling my vote scummy is just not accurate.

I mean...standard scum hunting right, if ces flips town? I jumped onto a wagon late on a townie, which would be third misslynch I was on where I either led the charge or aggressively pursued. I led the charge d1, I cased eddie day 2. It doesn't look good for me from the standpoint of holistic play. I also think it makes the me-dunn pairing more plausible. If ces is town it makes more sense that I would be trying to distance/bus my buddy dunn. I don't think that assertion makes sense if ces flips scum, but it does if he flips town.

for the record, I have talked about this before. I mentioned it when we were talking about who looks good/bad from flips.

[Thestatusquo]

I also think the balance of my play has been pretty town as well, I think thats what should clear me, but obviously you disagree there.

ha, do you understand the desire sometimes to just call yourself obvtown now?

shaddup.

[Thestatusquo]

hi can we not call people morons please thank you

can we call them maroons?

or macaroons?

man macaroons are fucking dank.

[Thestatusquo]

wrong kind of macaroons. I meant the jewish kind.

[Thestatusquo]

anyway, ran want to hammer your scum buddy and make this easy for us?

[Thestatusquo]

Why does Ran try to save CES when she can switch on for towncred?

I already answered this. If the third scum buddy is in serious danger of being lynched, you can't bus there.

Hence, if we think the third scum is dunn, which I do, Ran has to try to save CES or he loses the game.

[Thestatusquo]

Also if lycan is telling the truth he will be removed from the game by the mod. If theres no mod action, he's not telling the truth about having secret mod information, so thats gunna sort itself out.

[Thestatusquo]

Hello. The remaining scum is Marquis and Action Dan. I am fine with being put at L-2 or L-1 today while I make a case, vca, and final reads list in the case I'm mislynched today. I will not vote outside of those two today. I still think Town will win with or without me. I suggest today should be used with asking me questions about my mindset if I do die today, that way you can consider it in light of my town flip. I think Quick, Gamma, and Shea all get town credit for their reaction to NSG's CES case. I think CES's scum flip is the best town can ask for, since his flip gives more information rather then a Marquis or Action Dan scum flip.

You said I was scum for my reaction to NSGs case if ces flipped scum. Now, after I was right and after you couldn't get me counterwagoned yesterday and after you've lost LQs support, you think it makes me town?

Huh.

Also

Shadoweh: A50 thought he was scum with CES due to VCA. (Never 2 on the same wagon, except for the lynch, all 3 on it as of Feb 06) I thought the team of Shea, Lycanfire, CES made sense. I pushed them. Then each time Lycan responded, I was like "Hell no my gut is screaming town." It's not depression, I'm looking into the future.

I mean, this might be one of the like 5 different 3 person scum teams you pushed, and you did very briefly vote CES, but your vote and your attack on CES was very different from your push or Dan or LQ or me. It was half hearted and you never tried to actually get him lynched. You spent all day yesterday trying to derail his lynch using literally any counter wagon you could think of.

The fact that you're here trying to claim that you thought he was scum all along is just complete and utter horseshit.

[Thestatusquo]

If you look deeper into the votes you'll see I had numerous opportunities to hammer people who weren't CES - I'm not scum

The information on a scum CES flip was: Don't lynch Marquis before Dunnstral

I had the opportunity to hammer Marquis.

Considering you were barely here, this defense holds less water than you think it does.

[Thestatusquo]

I have not much I want to say. I think the final scum are Ranmaru and Dunn. If I'm wrong on one of them the third scum is probably marquis. Maybe Gamma but I doubt it.

From a POE perspective I have very strong town reads on:
ActionDan
LQ

I have a reasonably strong town read on:
Davsto

I have a middling town read on:
Gamma
Marquis/shadoweh (based primarily on CES hammering on him for the whole game and the fact that he was continually put up for lynch which suggests as NSG suggested implies he's been a pretty continual ML target.)

My preference would be to lynch Dunn, and see if that ends the game, then reevaluate tomorrow and see if Ranmaru's actions this game are still as bad as I think they are.

Davsto do you not think Dunn is scum, and if so why not? If so, is it just that you think ran is most likely?

[Thestatusquo]

No, it's Marquis or Me. That's the most beneficial direction for town right now.

I'm sorry but you have zero credibility.

feel free to vote for who you think is scum but in no world are we letting you dictate today's lynch.

[Thestatusquo]

I mean, focusing on Dunn today is a bit lazy. At least fulfill my request so I can explain myself to you all as best I can. For example, if Dunn were lynched and flipped town today, would your truly reconsider your read on me the next day? I think not. Yet if you focused on one of ME v Marquis, if somehow I were mislynched, it would at least give town a ton of information (due to wagons) and make others accountable for their actions towards my slot. I also think Marquis is town's best chance at victory, since that might be a lynch town may actually agree on. Otherwise we may just lose. I want you all to try harder.

I'm not going to focus on anyone vs. anyone.

I'm going to focus on who I think is scum and vote them. That's not lazy, thats mafia.

What is it with players these days where they think every day has to be some massive 1v1.

I have already outlined why I think you're scum but if you want me to do that again tomorrow I can.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm old af.

[Thestatusquo]

Can anyone tell me they're scumreading Ran for something other than him defending CES?

I'm reading ranmaru as scum for a couple of broad reasons:

1) His reads don't seem to bear any relationship to who is actually scum. I'm pretty sure every single person he has voted has flipped town, and every single wagon he has not been on has been on scum. We have a bit of a small sample going on here, but consistently when his actions have been put the test (i.e. who he's been voting at the end of the day.) its been wrong every time.

2) This is important because Ranmaru votes. A lot. For different people. A lot. With the same degree of expressed certainty.
He seems to not care about who is lynched too much, except if its on CES, who he also declared scum earlier in the day but then did everything in his power to stop.

Look at the juxtaposition between this post:

====
Reads
====

----

Town

----

Quick: I again, felt his opening play seemed illogical, but as I pushed into his illogical web, I realize that it seems to have no scum motive there. As I pushed him he kept engaging, which makes me feel he really was trying to understand my issues. I started liking his play since him explaining himself to me, then giving his reads list, then on Day 3, after his Gamma/Ran push, explained his issue with me. I also do believe he is town trying to push things even though he doesn't feel he has the right evidence. I think he undervalues his own skill, and think he has made good observations but then re-treads those due to Occamz razor. (I feel like that helps sometimes and it hurts sometimes especially when scum are doing things you don't expect precisely to fool those who use it)

Gamma: My read on Gamma remains the same. As I have explained in my #2217, this seems much different then his scum game or his third party game. His 'forced' reactions are null, he does it as both alignments. I like his questioning in his #2283, and I like his reconsideration of Quick after Quick rightfully explains himself. In Penguin Mafia Redux, he wasn't actually scumhunting as much. Here he has been doing plenty of that. I would also like those pushing for Gamma (CES) to look into my #2217 and tell me their thoughts.

NSG: Her #441 seems like a pro-town observation, not something I'd think Scum would point out. Now, if I compare NSG to Lycanfire, she's been pretty consistent with her push on CES. She's asked Llama his thoughts on CES. I think overall she was posting well. Now, given her progression on Dunn, I can see why she was fine with voting him as opposed to Eddie. Eddie flipping town makes me feel much better about her slot in general. Again, I do like that she repeats her question to CES in her #550. Looking back, her #584 seems fine since T-chill seemed like likely scum for avoiding the game. She follows up on her questioning to Dunn in her #489. After those posts, is when she starts to drop in activity and engagement. She says it's mostly due to her feeling she is doing bad, which I don't see at all. I can see this as more likely to be town as, she was posting well, and I think if she were scum, she'd continue to post to keep up the charade. She also mentions it's due to post rate going faster, and I know I myself, am a cause of that, even though this game I'm trying to restrict myself. (As opposed to Penguin Mafia Redux, my previous game here, I was top poster above Mulch, Gamma, and Transcend) So it makes sense. This is why I keep asking people to slow down their posting (LQ) because it actually hurts other town from being able to read thoroughly and with effort, when scum really don't have that same desire to comb through posts. She asks for questions to help her jump back into the game, and I try to help out. She does answer in her #1473 which is helpful. Her stance on Eddie was weak, but it doesn't do much to weaken my town read on NSG. On the small off chance that Marquis is scum, she might actually be scum as well. Only slight chance though. A50 thinks she is lock town though. So does Cheeky. (Well that is outdated, she said that quite a while ago, Cheeky isn't active right now, it's just me and A50, but Cheeky did check in with us recently asking us for updates)

Action Dan: So in general, I still have a problem with Action Dan's lack of presence. It feels as the days go on he has less and less presence. He stuck his neck out stating he thought Eddie would still flip town, that looks good on him.
His #1144 is him simply townreading people and using POE. What I really need to see is him going into why, thoroughly if he is doing that, yet he declines. So, that doesn't actually help me sort him. (Yet he says he'll do one today, I hope to see it) I think I have no reason to truly believe he is scum but I'm still wary of him. Slight town.

----

Null

----

Dunnstral: Repeating what I have said earlier: The only thing I get is null. I do like his votes, on Marquis, and his push on T-chill did seem like he had conviction for it. He has been present, and voting, but that's about it. Not seeing any scum intent from him, though. A50 does have him in the scum pool, which is the only thing I have in the back of my mind to keep in mind when reading Dunnstral. An important post I think, is his #2034, which states he isn't invested. The good thing to keep in mind is, that even though he isn't invested, he's still present. || I haven't really seen much from him today, he's just wondering about the kill for now. If we don't lynch scum before him for at least today / tomorrow, then he needs to die.

Marquis: My issue with him is that I can't really find any townieness from him. I do agree that him popping in and out may be scum. I think I'm just more correct with the reads below. If I'm wrong on the lynch today, Marquis must be the next lynch for sure.

Davsto: My overall feelings still remain, so I'll re-post it: I feel like his reads list is overall, surface level. He's still actually in process of ISO'ing Gamma. WGEURTZ, I don't get any vibes from. This is one of those things I can agree with LQ on. (The flatness) It's kind of an issue if Davsto is consistent with that. I also generally don't like how he formats his posts, it makes it hard to parse. LQ's post on him is a good point: #1730 (Second paragraph, first sentence) I think I null read him. I know that he played devil's advocate with Postie on the Eddie case, which seemed townie. Then he makes #1427, agreeing to it. Again, I can't really get too much vibes either way. I keep trying to get a read on him and it's difficult for me. || Now, I'm seeing that he may be having trouble finding mafia. If he's town, I can understand that he's just having surface level opinions and is having a hard time trying to, which is why I'm hoping he does do something with what CES and I asked of him. If CES is not scum, Davsto is. I was hoping he'd actually ISO or answer my questions, I can't really say if he's scum for sure or town, but the way he's posting right now isn't helping me sort him.

----

Scum

----

CES: I realize that CES's #122 Seems suspicious because he states that to Quick without actually stating a scumread on Marquis before then, or giving support. In general, CES in the beginning of game to mid game, seemed to be busy. CES over time has begun to seem more townie to me, especially with his #2279 where he shows worry about the Postie kill. Yet he doesn't really show any re-read yet. His #1596 is concerning to me, as his reads on Shea and Lycanfire don't seem convincing. I would expect a player of his experience to be more critical of a player like Shea. I think sheeping Llama's read is lazy on his part. I actually agree with NSG's point that his pattern of switch to wagons he original wasn't passionate for, gives him scumpoints. It's actually very concerning that he states feeling used as a scapegoat by NSG (which discredits her) but he doesn't actually explain his mindset further. #2279 I'm not confident he is scum, but I feel he'd be the long term scum if so. I think he's slight scum, or town that has been very wrong except his scum read on Marquis in the case Shea/Lyca aren't scum. I find his answer for not explaining his mindset on the Eddie vote to be concerning, I do agree that his vote there wasn't very passionate.

Lycanfire: Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all, which shows he doesn't care to progress RVS. He states he is busy in his [urlhttps://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=9907370#p9907370]#430[/url] which is a recurring excuse. In his #932 he states Eddie and Dunn are lynch bait, but doesn't really look into people that are pushing Dunn. Which feels like he is saying that just to say that, but doesn't actually have the interest to follow up and defend those players. He returns to his CES vote #1369, while not trying to push the wagon even though he says he wants people to be on it. In his #1575 he states he didn't do much with it or interact with him due to previous pages being TvT, which doesn't seem believable to me. In his #1669 He states his underperformance is due to people not wanting to play, which is another excuse. He also states my global reads needs changes but he doesn't have solid reads to back his up, especially his town reads. His read on Eddie is mabye scum, for voting Marquis, who he feels is lynchbait. His #1839 seems like a big effort to move from the CES wagon he was sitting on onto Eddie who he was reading as maybe scum. A wagon analysis before he flips, not after. After my interaction with him, he seemed to get better at interacting near the end of Day 2, but it doesn't do much to improve my read on him. I find it to be good play regardless of his alignment there. In his #2222 he opens once again with his push on CES. He's doing better this time by asking LQ 'why no vote CES?' in his #2309, yet again, I think it's null due to him not doing it originally. I have called it out so he knows what to do to keep playing as if he is town. He town reads Shea for being unwavering with Davo's scumread on him, but that's it. It's a bit weak, and he hasn't really tried to sort him, nor did he ask about his direction on Dunnstral, who he believes is lynchbait. Scum. His read on Shea doesn't really factor in that Shea is pushing for Dunn when Lycanfire stated Dunn was lynchbait. Again, showing that he said that only to say that, not actually backing that up.

Shea: Starts out voting NSG in his #82 because he doesn't like that she used wifom, and that she was voting in a way that he felt didn't progress RVS. Yet, a page before, Lycanfire votes Shea in his #70, without any reasoning at all. Shea never asks or comments on Lycan's post here. In his #440 Mentions Tchill and LQ and a pool of players who might be scum with them, but doesn't mention Lycanfire. He doesn't really seem to try to sort Lycanfire, he just townbins him. I still think this is a concerning play from Shea: #435. He interrupts his push on Lycan and doesn't actually comment. He states in his defense #1673 that he just thought it was garbage and felt no need to defend Lycan to his scumread. Yet he hasn't really done much with Quick after reading him as town. During Day 2, I was pushing Quick again but he was not really pushing much, he just commented a bit when I was talking about his progression. Doesn't feel like he had passion for LQ as scum during Day 2, and was content with sitting on Eddie from the beginning. Him wanting to look into Dunn doesn't really feel like he's trying that hard to find mafia, and Lycan did make the point that [Eddie and Dunn are both lynchbait]. (Note if he has ever criticized Shea for pushing Dunn) I do like that he's attempting to work with me more after my original concerns, but still feel he is scum. I don't think his read on Lycan is convincing, and don't understand why he has Dunn as scummier than NSG. NSG feels scummier than Dunn and I feel Shea is running out of options. (Although I think NSG is town, just that she seems like scum from her recent play) #2083 In general, Shea posts reads lists but doesn't really give reasoning along with them, which doesn't help me see why he feels a certain way. Scum.

and this post:

Alright, Lycanfire. I think I'm just entirely wrong right now, and am re-reading my reads and I just see that I'm too focused on you and Shea being the team. If you are town then I just think you are wrong on CES most importantly. (Also I don't care what Skirt has to say, he can shove it, yet I still respect your team because Transcend and Giga are on it, also I do appreciate you not wanting to make me replace out) Right now, the most sense you are making is with Dan to me right now. LQ is not scum. I'm thinking the team is actually [Marquis, Davsto, Action Dan]. The more I re-read CES's posts the more town he seems to me.

SCUM [Marquis > Davsto > Action Dan | Dunnstral | Lycanfire > Shea > CES > NSG > Gamma > Quick > Ranmaru] TOWN

These posts were less than 24 hours apart.

Here is a list of people that he declared scum yesterday:

With votes:
NSG
Shea
Marquis
ActionDan
LQ
CES

With read lists (no explanation)
Marquis
Davsto
Action Dan
NSG
gamma

With Largish Cases (some explanation):
CES
Me
Lycanfire
LQ
ActionDan
NSG

For those keeping track at home thats literally every player in the game EXCEPT dunn.

Town doesn't vote like this. Town cares about having reads and cares about using those reads to lynch scum. Ran doesn't care about having reads he cares about town momentum and following and directing it to where it will be a misslynch.

His silence on dunnestral yesterday is particularly deafening. In a day where he voted and cased and read listed literally every other player in the game, somehow dunnestral warranted only mentions like this one:

Only comparison in my mind is that Marquis is suspicious to me, while Dunn is null. Only concern I have with Dunn now is that he's not voting nor is he helping right now, and posting else where. I would expect both will be lynched either way. I just suspect Marquis will be the red flip. I also think Marquis's recent posts are those of a survival instinct. Can you talk to me more about the bias thing?

Seeing as marquis and dunn have been pretty similar players in this game not considering the CES flip, the fact that he was frequently trying to push in the direction of marquis but literally never in the direction of dunn is really odd.

His interactions with CES also consisted basically of calling him scum in a group of three without going after him, voting him later, hopping off that wagon, hopping back on, and then hopping off and declaring ces as town (again with no reasoning) and doing everything in his power to stop that lynch.

Stuff like his interactions with gamma are also kind of bizarre to me. He was so confident in gamma being town that he declared yesterday that he wanted him to decide the lylo lynch.

I do like the idea that we should elect our pick for lylo vote controller. We should proceed like this:

Elect: Gamma

That's my pick. He's currently my strongest town read. Lycanfire is a good pick too.

All of a sudden, with ces as the most likely wagon and gamma on it, he starts pushing gamma.

Unvote

Scum is Shea, Quick, Gamma.

I just don't understand how you go from someone being your strongest town read all of a sudden to being in your lynch pool less than 3 RL days later.

Just to be clear, I am not attacking gamma for lacking consistency. I think that town players often lack consistency, and that actually consistency can be something of a scum tell (see: ces). What I am attacking him for is instead having no reads. Just throwing literally everyones name out there and seeing which ones get traction, then immediately switching on a dime when they don't.

3) His constant buddying. Ran has used his "town read" status in this game super hard. He even tried to do it today, when he said "no the lynch is me or x today." to try to lead the town into doing what he wants. He frequently goes from calling people scum to buddying them less than a page later, trying to pull them in on whatever lynch he happens to favor at this time. He's not trying to determine dans alignment when he says "I want you voting this" he's not trying to determine my alignment when he says "I want you on this wagon." He's trying to buddy us.

4) This is perhaps the most important point and builds off of the rest. Ranmaru doesn't have reads. He has lynches. He doesn't just switch scum reads, he goes from not scum reading someone at all to demanding that they be lynched immediately with full gusto. For someone who changes his reads as much as he does, one would think a town thought process would be more cautious. More along the lines of "Oh, I thought Dan was scum before but now I think hes not my read on dan must not have been that strong, but now I'm kind of thinking it might be shea lets see if I can pull out this read a little more because I think I was wrong about dan." He doesn't do that. He goes immediately from hard trying to lynch dan to trying to hard lynch me while trying to pull in dan, who he had just been trying to lynch previously. This basically shows a thought process where he doesn't care if hes right, he doesn't care if his reads are accurate, they all can apply the same amount of force towards a lynch.

[Thestatusquo]

1) Can you provide the list of all the people he's voted? I think with some lateral thinking I can disprove this point.
2) Fair, although sometimes his switches make sense (such as when he switched to scumreading me).
3) Why is trying to campaign for votes scummy? I think there could be better way of doing it (say, asking for thoughts on the case and saying if you agree vote with me) but it just seems like someone trying to lead. Plus I feel like there is a way to sort with those requests: seeing who supports and is against scum lynches.
4) Fair point, it seems Ran has been adjusting reads to what's beneficial for him.

1) For yesterday the people hes voted is listed in my post under the heading "with votes".
2) Sometimes they did, but everyones actions sometimes make sense. Like I said, switching your reads is not a scum tell. It was the way he switched his reads and how often and how he acted like his previous reads no longer even existed after he switched them. I also don't think his switch to scum reading you made much sense reading the transition. it was kind of like he was doing meta and declaring you lock town because of it and then all of a sudden he declared you as scum because of some different meta. Why was he picking and choosing meta to scum read vs town read you at different times? Am I missing something here?
3) Trying to take a lead is not inherently scummy, but the way he did it was scummy. Campaigning for votes on whatever wagon hes pushing with as far as I can tell very little lead up. One post, action dan is scummy and he wants me to lynch action dan. The next post I am scummy and he wants action dan to lynch me. These worldviews are not compatible with each other. They suggest to me that the lynch is what is important, not who it is on and not who is voting it, which I would describe as the opposite of a town mindset.

[Thestatusquo]

Davsto could you rephrase that?

[Thestatusquo]

Ah yes, I agree with that, though rans recent dunn vote does make that theory less likely, but I'll believe ran will lynch dunn (who he has had as a null read the whole game) when the hammer falls.

[Thestatusquo]

Lycan your case is kind of awful. You are saying its a proof of LQ scum, but you spend more time talking about CES than you do about LQ.

I don't see a single point that makes LQ more likely to be scum in there, just a whole bunch of CES Wifom and confirmation bias.

Like I don't even understand what the vote history point is supposed to mean.

[Thestatusquo]

Here's why scum kills someone other than Lycan: it puts town at a numbers disadvantage. Not saying this is anything against LQ being scum but the logic here should be clear as crystal.

What?

[Thestatusquo]

I'm just pretty unsure what you're saying, gamma.

Like, obviously the scum team wouldn't kill the player that is about to be modkilled. Is that the point you were making?

Because it seems like a pretty self evident one.

[Thestatusquo]

(By the way, I give a meta case on Gamma Day 3, I think I strongly backed the reasoning for why I believe Gamma is obvious town, I'd like for you to look at that at least, and tell me what you think)

for fucks sakes you then claimed that he was scum for like the rest of the day ALSO based on meta.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not a huge fan of dans reasoning on Dunn. I think that he's scum. I think ranmaru is more obviously scum though.

I saw his response to my case and I have not found time to respond to it yet, but he just keeps trying to rewrite history w/his opinions.

Gamma was obv town except when he wasn't when ces was on the chopping block. It was for meta but the reason he was scum was also meta.

[Thestatusquo]

Not sure, hopefully soon. Work has been heinous and I try not to MS on the weekends generally.

You can probably tell from my latest response that I didn't find what you said particularly convincing, but you're right that it deserves to be responded to.

[Thestatusquo]

You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.

[Thestatusquo]

Response to Ranmaru, or: More reasons Ran is scum.

Shea #3635:

1. I was wrong when it mattered. That is true. Yet how does that make me scum? Does that go alongside the rest of my play?

2. I do vote a lot, I like to use my vote as a tool. I do care who is lynched, I just change my mind, a lot. I have always tunneled in the past, and being a player with inaccurate reads, I note myself town reading scum. So, I try to pick up a whimsical style similar to Vi. That was indeed 24 hours apart. My reads have been influenced by A50's, and when I see Lycanfire respond to me, it just vibes town to me. Therefore I stop the push. Note that, I was not voting Lycan, but you.

3. Yes, everywhere except Dunn, true. I ignore players like Dunn, accepting that they'd be lynched on a day like today anyway, while prioritizing others that may have scum intent. I was never convinced by your argument he was scum simply for doing nothing.

4. I think you said it yourself, a team of Shea, Quick, and Gamma make sense to my Town point of view, if I think CES is town. There wasn't anything blaringly scummy about CES, only a smidge. I think your point here isn't valid since you yourself hadn't wanted CES before your pool. If I couldn't see the scumminess of CES from that case, I'm not sure why you did. In a skim of NSG's case, I thought 'this is mostly things I have already thought of myself' as some of her points did mention questions I asked to CES.

5. I'll tell you that a few times I purposely tried to swing people I was publicly scumreading onto wagons, like Quick at the time I was pushing CES. Other times, I simply reconsidered the player. I do understand the use of buddying as a tool, and I use it. Usually, I use it with town reads. In this game, this is a game where I only have one strong town read, and that is Gamma. The only other person I could and would have loved working with is Shea/Quick. Quick never really worked with me when I tried. You took a while.

6. I'm not generally cautious, no. I would like you to give an example of how you think I should have played. Generally, I will push for my scum reads to be lynched. You are right, I don't do the 'I don't think it's Dan anymore... I think it's Shea'. Although you quoted a post of me doing that with Lycanfire... Do you mean that I don't publish that in thread? As in, my thought process when I switched gears? I do agree that I do switch gears at the snap of a hat.

---

In general, this is just my playstyle as town. I care more about leading and finding scum, I've just had plenty of trouble actually finding them. It's more of my reads not being accurate, and I'm constantly flip flopping. Also, Quick is the #1 reason for my confusion as well. This is the first time I have flip flopped this much, most especially on Quick. I do like to buddy, I don't think buddying in and of it self is a scumtell. I do like to lead the town in doing what I want, though. This is true. I have already explained this though, this is me coping with the fact I'm not right, so I try to get it right. Then in the end, I get it wrong anyway. I've noticed that being obviously townie, is not the only skill one should have in mafia, and my reads definetly need polishing. I have scum reads that I want to lynch, that I always change my mind on due to my play style of being whimsical, so I can avoid tunneling and being wrong. Saying this in-game undermines my own credibility in game, but it's already shot due to missing the CES wagon.

Self-Meta:

Family Mafia
Crossover Mafia

1) this is missing my point. Yes, you were wrong when it mattered. But the reason this makes you scum is because of the volume of your suspicions. You have a paper trail with literally every player in this game where you have strongly called them both town and scum with the possible exception of Dunn. This gives you plausible deniability. You can claim to have held whatever position is expedient to you at the time. Indeed, we've seen that today. Here are two statements you've made today:

a )

Shadoweh: A50 thought he was scum with CES due to VCA. (Never 2 on the same wagon, except for the lynch, all 3 on it as of Feb 06) I thought the team of Shea, Lycanfire, CES made sense. I pushed them. Then each time Lycan responded, I was like "Hell no my gut is screaming town." It's not depression, I'm looking into the future.

This is true. This IS a thing you said. But its not the whole or even most of the story. The whole of the story includes the fact that you never seriously pushed this with the fervency of your other pushes and when it came right down to it you took many actions both overt and not, which fought against the CES lynch, while firmly declaring him to be town.

b )

(By the way, I give a meta case on Gamma Day 3, I think I strongly backed the reasoning for why I believe Gamma is obvious town, I'd like for you to look at that at least, and tell me what you think)

Again, this is not the whole, or even MOST of the story. It's true you wrote a meta case on gamma. Its true you declared him town. But then you completely ignored your own meta case and declared him scum and attempted to push him when CES was on the block. It is completely disingenuous of you to make statements like this.

I am specifically drawing a delineation between your actions and your words because your words can be used to support any conclusion you want them to support, and today you are doing that to try to deflect suspicion on you. The two above statements are examples. So when we look at the balance of the things you've said, we can't draw meaningful conclusions. We can, however, look at your actions and the results of those actions and theory craft about what you were trying to accomplish.

I think you were trying to accomplish was to create exactly what you're doing today: a situation where you can realistically say "I thought X was town/scum" for any player. And you're literally doing this, but when we drill deeper behind the rhetoric the reality is that you have supported enthusiastically lynches on townies and tried your damndest to stop a lynch on scum. A player who coincidentally and conveniently you never pushed even though you listed him as a scum read several times.

2) This response is missing my point. My point wasn't that you vote a lot, but that your degree of pushes is the same. There is so self reflection that says "huh, if I was wrong about this player who I am now town reading maybe I might be wrong about this player who I am now scum reading." When I see players with the style you're describing here, vote hopping is usually accompanied by information gathering. I.e. the frequency of the votes is used as a tool to discern alignment. It doesn't look to me like thats what you're doing. It looks to me like you're voting and then attempting to get the new person lynched with little regard to the fact that you were just declaring them town earlier. I don't see reaction testing in your posting, I see ambivalence about who eventually gets lynched.

3) Except you don't ignore players like Dunn. Marquis is a very similar player to dunn in this game and you've not ignored him at all. He's been at the top of your suspicions lists several times. You've voted him several times. You've pushed him several times. It's simply not accurate to say you "ignore players like dunn" because we have a player in this game who is very similar to dunn in terms of play and lurking and content who you have not ignored even a little bit. What's the difference between those two players, Ran?

4) If its mostly things you had thought of yourself why weren't you pushing him? Why did you fight against his lynch when his response to the case and to pressure was so bad? Why did you disregard my meta reasons for attacking CES based off of his response?

Also, I said that team made sense not in the sense that it was likely, but in the sense that my teammate cheetory thought that Gamma (in his meta analysis of him) wouldn't take scum unless he had the express purpose of being bus fodder, and that this really only made sense with LQ as a teammate. You are taking it horribly out of context I think. I don't recall saying anything like that any other time.

5) This is a game where you really only have one strong town read, which is gamma, who you spent a large percentage of yesterday trying to get lynched.

I'll just let that sink in.

Anyway, this whole point is just you saying "Yes, I use buddying as scum. Here are some people who I buddied this game." which is basically conceding my point. You frequently tried to bring people along on wagons with you who you had been calling scum earlier. I can really think of only TWO reasons for a player to do that.

a ) You are attempting to buddy, as previously discussed, and repair a relationship for needing to not be voted by them later.

b ) You are attempting to get them on to town wagons so you can attack them for it later.

I really don't see a town motivation for "attempting to get people you are scum reading onto wagons." If you want to tell me what it is I'm all ears.

6) My point is that your reads don't matter. Its not that you lack consistency, but rather that you don't seem to care at all about what you thought previously. When I have a scum read, I have REASONS that I have that scum read. If I then think that player is more likely to be town, I still have those reasons, and I still think about them and I still value my previous reads. An example of that for me this game would be my LQ reads, who I had to grudgingly admit was town because I don't see scum motivation in a lot of the plays he made.

When you go "gamma is scum, lynch gamma right now!" and then ten seconds later you're like "gamma is town, never lynch gamma! gamma, lynch dan with me!" you are basically saying "everything I thought earlier I don't care about now." And I just don't see....ANY reason why that would be the case. The way you disregard your own thoughts and reads suggests to me that you a) don't care about them very much or b ) they were never particularly well thought out in the first place.

Anyway, yes davsto I'm joining you.
VOTE: ranmaru

[Thestatusquo]

You don't think players think about how likely they are to be ML? I definitely do.

I think people do get angry about being lynched over people they think are scum, I don't think this is the same thing.
It's like, pre-flip rage? in an "I played so much better then you" way. I'm basically saying it sounds like he doesn't think he's scum.

Wouldn't you expect a town player to not think they're scum?

O.o

[Thestatusquo]

Oh. That makes a lot more sense.

[Thestatusquo]

Why is that relevant. It's also pretty self explanatory and answered already on the same page (747) and in great detail during the hash out I had with LQ.

I'm not particularly inclined to answer it again.

[Thestatusquo]

Like if you were rereading the game surely you made it through the end of that page before stopping to ask me that asinine question and if you were ISOing me its literally three posts down.

[Thestatusquo]

This is another point about you that I should have brought up. The way you ask questions and generate content doesn't feel town to me. You pick some hyper specific detail that can't actually be that relevant to anything, then you ask someone to explain it. Then you hound them to explain it until they do, usually ignoring the fact that you'd know the answer if you had just been reading the thread. It reads like someone faking scum hunting to me.

[Thestatusquo]

Mainly because I think ranmaru is more likely to be scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Thats because I think that question is not important.

[Thestatusquo]

Like voting who to have in lylo based on if they "deserve to be there." is a way to lose a lot of mafia games. Scum players can play well. Town players can play badly. None of this has any ramifications for their alignment.

All that matters if you want to win is a probabilistic determination of who is the most likely to be scum. Focusing on anything other than that is a distraction.

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah.

Strong town:

Davsto, I like his actions on the ces wagon and I like his tone and posts for the most part. He and I seem to be drawing a lot of the same conclusions the last two days and while I realize thats not a strong point, it does make me feel more comfortable with him. He's also the player I feel like I am most likely to be wrong about in my strong town pile. He's capable of playing this game as scum I think, I just don't think that he is. If that makes sense.

LQ: I don't think his actions come from scum, especially the bizarre meta cases on you and his continued persistent illogical attacks on me. I think scum fakes better cases than those. I think scum doesn't attempt to use the logic he's used in the way he's used it. Cheetory6 has a town tell he's pretty fond of, which he calls "being confidently wrong" which basically means that scum players are more likely to qualify their opinions and their pushes and make sure they're good than town players. When someone is this stubborn and this wrong about something but you can tell they really actually believe the things they're saying, its a hard town tell.

Medium Town:

ActionDan: This read is similar to davsto but less strong because he spent time yesterday trying to deflect the wagon, but ultimately I liked how he interacted with CES yesterday and he's another player who I have been generally agreeing with when he posts and I liked how he stepped up his thread presence when I asked him to. That felt super town to me.

Shadoweh: This is really as simple as not really thinking CES' play makes sense as a long protracted bus. This is one of the things that I think lycanfire gets right when he says that the way CES played seems to have been designed to minimize connections and information as much as possible, which doesn't make much sense with marq-ces scum.

Weak town:

You: I have less justification for this than others, but call it gut. Cheet thought you were most likely to be town when he did his meta dive and you seem generally invested in figuring out the game. Your doubt today has read as super real to me, and thats a pretty hard thing to fake. I don't love your interactions with ranmaru and I don't love your interactions with CES which is the main thing keeping you from being a stronger town read.

[Thestatusquo]

Thanks Shea. Quick and Dunn it's your turn: describe why you townread who you townread.

I don't care who is Town. Dunn needs to get lynched.

This is fucking terrible play and you know it.

[Thestatusquo]

Straight up omgus.

[Thestatusquo]

So wait, your argument is that Davsto is scum and that I'm his buddy so because of this you're voting me?

[Thestatusquo]

Let's talk about my point of view with Gamma. Remember that he (not just him though) didn't follow me on CES when I pushed for him. It rubbed me off as wrong to see Quick, then Gamma, and then you vote when you were all not interested in his wagon earlier. #3211, #3181,
#3152. Especially since I tried to gain the votes of Gamma and Quick and both weren't on board with me. That was my point of view there. CES flipping scum, makes it more likely that I was originally correct on Gamma. In the three man scum team of Shea-Quick-Gamma, he would be the one that would least likely fit in my mind (since there are only three scum and CES flipped scum), so obviously I don't think what I said meta wise the second time applies. Again, it was all sparked by Quick's weird push on me with reference to my Gamma read, but I realize now that again, I was just wrong.

I guess this is fair. Why wouldn't someone else that you accused EoD3 be more cleared by your logic than me?

This is completely disingenuous. Between the time that I didn't vote for CES and the time you say you were surprised 2 things had happened which you are now conveniently pretending didn't happen.

a) There was a case made and a terrible defense of it which didn't at all fit with my meta of town ces. (something I've explained multiple times and you would know if you were doing more than just cherry picking to throw shade.

b) we were 3 days from deadline as opposed to 14.

You're acting like the circumstances between the two situations are exactly the same but in fact they are different both in terms of my read on ces changing AND in terms of where we were in the day, both of which are sufficient on their own for me to change my vote.

Also, given that you have also attacked me for having "Reads that are too static" whatever that means, its fucking completely ass backwards that you now come and attack me for having a read that changed.

Like, what exactly what you like from me? First I don't reevaluate enough according to you (even though I've been constantly reevaluating) and then when I vote one of those reevaluations who is scum, all of a sudden you're confused by it and it doesn't make sense to you even though it makes perfect sense

[Thestatusquo]

Scum desperation, boys.

[Thestatusquo]

Actually lets do this point by point:

1)

In general, Shea pushes Gamma without trying to understand his argument.

Show me where this happened please. Show me where I "pushed gamma without trying to understand his argument."

2)

His defense to not considering Gamma was that he was just holding that in to see reactions, but I don't think it's a valid defense.

I'm not even sure what this is referring to. Not considering gamma as scum? Not considering gammas reactions? When and where are you saying this happened?

3)

Shea tends to push people for ignoring him, yet he does the same to me when I ask about his Davsto read.

Show me where this happened. Where do I "push people for ignoring me." I don't think I've done it once. In fact, this is describing your play. Your whole reason for scum reading me earlier was that I "wasn't working with you enough." Please show the quotes where I am "pushing people because they ignore me."

He responds to his catch up as 'town' yet oddly takes a while to respond to me when I address him.

lol. its almost as if you're describing yourself not me.

4)

His vote on CES is actually suspect to me. I think people can see it, they are just blinded by the wagon I created to counter CES. It makes sense for Shea to vote his

null town

read after he sees a ton of pressure going in CES's way.

As already mentioned, he wasn't any longer a null town read. My reason for null-town reading ces was based on my meta of having played with him quite a bit back in the day. His response to the case did not fit into that meta. Additionally, we were 3 days from deadline, so my threshold for voting goes down. You are acting like I was just "lol vote ces" with no explanation but I fully explained multiple times how and why my read on his changed. You can't just pretend this didn't happen.

5)

Shea doesn't really do much with his 'town leader' status, he simply pushes for [Dunn, NSG, Marquis] one of which already flipped town.

The concept of "town leader" is bullshit. I vote for my reads. I try to get town to vote my reads. I have been right on one of my reads and wrong on two. It's hard to say what you've been right or wrong on because you've literally called the entire player base scum.

6)

He also has confidence in Dunn being scum yet he can't even case him.

Yes, gut reads exist. In fact, if I were scum trying to mislynch Dunn I can fucking promise you I would have been able to make a fake case and it would have been at least ok. I didn't because I concluded that my read was mostly gut and that wasn't a reasonable thing to ask people to follow me onto. You are taking all of these things and ignoring the town motivations behind them is scummy. Your analysis here is based on trying to make me look bad "LOL SHEA COULDN'T CASE A SCUM READ" while ignoring the fact that I would absolutely make a case as scum and wouldn't as town. Ignoring completely my motivation for WHY I didn't make a case.

7)

Also note that Shea yells at Davsto for not reading the thread, but never cares to mention this to Shadoweh. Shea is getting lazy.

You're right. I was caught up in other things and I didn't interact with shadoweh the same way I did with davsto. I'm not really sure why, maybe its because davsto kept saying he wasn't going to read the thread and then didn't for a while, and shadoweh never said she was going to do that? Or actually said the opposite. Obviously I would prefer she read the thread, but I can't make her if she says shes not going to. However, I wanted davstos input on the game. We're also in a much different part of the game. I honestly don't know.

Actually, if your contention is that me and davsto were scum together because of this and I was coaching him wouldn't I just yell at him about it in the PT?

Anyway, laziness is not alignment indicative. I put less effort into this game day 2 then 1, but thats because almost all of my posting takes place at work and I got really busy at work day 2.

Would you describe my play today as lazy, even if you do think laziness is a scum tell, which lol....

[Thestatusquo]

Excuse me what the fuck? Check who you're quoting

Yeah the quote is off. I'm responding to ranmarus post that you're quoting, not you.

[Thestatusquo]

*davsto kept saying he WAS going to read the thread is what that should say.

[Thestatusquo]

Like I really want to delve deeper on 6) here.

I have made several cases on scum reads this game. I have made one on ranmaru himself. I have made one on a player that flipped town. Why are you just ignoring this. What is your argument for what you think my motivation was for not casing him? It can't be because you think I don't make cases as scum, because I've done that. It can't be that you think I was trying to get him mislynched as scum, because if thats the case I definitely would have made the case. It can't be because you think we're scum together, because you think my scum partner would be davsto? It can't be because you think I was hoping he would get lynched and that I would be off the wagon because I have continued to vote and push him.

WHY exactly do you think this is scummy? Because I literally can't think of any scum motivation for a scum player not casing a scum read that is under heavy suspicion. The motivations are all town. They are that I didn't want to distract the town with pushing a lynch I couldn't bring people on board for and because I didn't think my gut reasons for scum reading him as opposed to marquis were particularly convincing.

These kinds of arguments look good on paper. You can shout over and over again that I did something that doesn't make perfect sense. I.e. I had a strong scum read on someone I tried to write a case on but couldn't. But its all surface level. You don't seem to care AT ALL about WHY a player might do that. You don't seem to care at all that there isn't really plausible scum motivation to do that. You don't care at all about the fact that you have to ignore multiple stated posts to make this argument. You don't care at all about the fact that my other actions don't fit even a little bit into your narrative.

All of your points are like this. They're attacks that are surface level "here is a thing shea did which I don't understand....SHEA IS SCUM."

That's just not a town mindset. Town wants to dig down and find the motivations behind why people are doing things. Town doesn't look at an action and say "this is weird must be scum." Scum does that because scum wants to push the town to mislynch people, and they don't need to be right, they only need to sound convincing and plausible. You seem way more concerned with sounding good than being right.

[Thestatusquo]

Since I have been asked to explain my townreads myself here's where I'm at:
Shea: Doesn't feel like he's submitting his play under any care of being examined, basically he's not trying to please anyone with his play.
Ranmaru: honestly it comes down to why. I feel like he'd be smarter with his scumplay than to so evidently flip his reads at the drop of a hat.
Shadoweh: Besides being CES' pet ML he's also shown a serious desire to solve today.
Everyone else is pretty much a suspect.
Also I just thought of something to look at, one second

Don't look at whether something people are doing is smart, look at who it benefits. The argument "why would x player do y its too obvious" is very often wrong, because it causes people to doubt themselves exactly like you're doing here. Plus, some people are just bad. Ranmaru has played poorly this game regardless of he's scum or town. It's not like his play is good for town to do either, and if we look at the motivation for why a player would play in the way that he has, i.e. read my case and my response to his response, we can see that the most likely motivations are all scum ones and not town ones. Same way he picks hyper specific things to ask people questions about that are ultimately irrelevant and frequently have been completely answered multiple times already. Why would town do that? I can't think of a motivation for it. Why would scum do it? There are tons of motivations there.

[Thestatusquo]

Since I have been asked to explain my townreads myself here's where I'm at:
Shea: Doesn't feel like he's submitting his play under any care of being examined, basically he's not trying to please anyone with his play.
Ranmaru: honestly it comes down to why. I feel like he'd be smarter with his scumplay than to so evidently flip his reads at the drop of a hat.
Shadoweh: Besides being CES' pet ML he's also shown a serious desire to solve today.
Everyone else is pretty much a suspect.
Also I just thought of something to look at, one second

Don't look at whether something people are doing is smart, look at who it benefits. The argument "why would x player do y its too obvious" is very often wrong, because it causes people to doubt themselves exactly like you're doing here. Plus, some people are just bad. Ranmaru has played poorly this game regardless of he's scum or town. It's not like his play is good for town to do either, and if we look at the motivation for why a player would play in the way that he has, i.e. read my case and my response to his response, we can see that the most likely motivations are all scum ones and not town ones. Same way he picks hyper specific things to ask people questions about that are ultimately irrelevant and frequently have been completely answered multiple times already. Why would town do that? I can't think of a motivation for it. Why would scum do it? There are tons of motivations there.

Why do you say I am Town for Tunneling on you when I ask you things that have been answered, but Ranmaru is Scum for those same things?

For one thing, I DID scum read you for that. I spent a large part of this game scum reading you for that. It was a huge part of why I thought you were scum.

I eventually had to move off of you because my scum read based on those things was eventually outweighed in my mind by other things, which I've discussed at length, most recently in my answer to gamma about my town reads.

For another, that's not actually what I'm accusing Ranmaru of. I'm accusing him of asking questions for the purpose of fake scum hunting and I'm accusing him of using those questions to set up attacks that are surface level at best.

For another, I don't think "tunneling" is a reasonable thing to call ranmaru's play. It's been the opposite of tunneling. I also think that the way in which the questions was asked and the way in which it was used shows different motivation. Your questions seemed like genuine lack of understanding at the beginning. At the end, I feel like they ended up being confirmation bias and tunneling, because you really believed I was scum. The purpose of your questions, though, as far as I could tell, felt like you were trying to catch me in contradictions. The fact that I didn't see them as contradictions made you scum read me, because you really truly felt they were.

Contrast that with ranmarus play, where the questions seem designed to make it look like hes scum hunting when he's not. They seem designed to generate content which doesn't actually have any positive effects on game solving. They seem designed to, as gamma pointed out, send people out on wild goose chases which distract the town.

I've also noticed that a lot of ranmarus questions are attempts to set up some attack he wants to make. They are premeditated. His last question asked me for a bizarre piece of trivia about one small post I made about davsto days ago, which had been explained at least 3 times, and then immediately he jumped on me and started positing me and davsto were scum together. It's like hes trying to use his questions to get people to look bad, not to determine their alignment.

[Thestatusquo]

(my argument also wasn't that you were town for tunneling. I think tunneling is NAI. My argument is that the way you went after me and gamma and the arguments you used are just not going to come from scum. Scum just isn't going to make that push on one of the stronger players in the game using arguments that bad. They're going to go after an easier lynch target and they're going to do it with better arguments.)

[Thestatusquo]

None of those are pushing him for ignoring me.

The first one is pointing out that its weird that he was doing a catchup and then somehow missed a post directed at him. The point wasn't YOU DIDN'T RESPOND TO ME. It was "Why did you miss this if you were actually giving the game attention."

The second and third one isn't even about ignoring at all. Nowhere in any of those quotes do I even mention being ignored, nor was I talking about it in the slightest.

It's about his process and how he was approaching the game. My attack was that he didn't have reasonable conclusions and that he was poking not to discern alignment but rather to determine who the town would go after.

What. Just. What?

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not resistant to lynching dunn at all.

I just want to see if I can get my #1 read instead of my #2.

If we get closer to deadline and no one is feeling ran I'll switch over, don't worry.

[Thestatusquo]

The resistance to lynching Dunn is unreal. That is a weak reason to SR Dunn all in itself.

Maybe
if you explained why everyone else is town
you might convince me

I already made what I think was a pretty compelling post about why everyone but ran/dunn is town to me.

[Thestatusquo]

Don't do that, he's town.

God dammit.

[Thestatusquo]

LQ, I'd like your town reads too, if you don't mind.

If not for today, for tomorrow in case of night kill.

[Thestatusquo]

Perhaps you'd like to explain why using something a little more concrete than "he said I'm more pro town than you!"

Perhaps iso him and tell me what makes him scum. Or, you know, ISO him and check out my posts about him which explain why I think hes town. Just ISO him at the very least.

[Thestatusquo]

ActionDan, I need more from you.

We have 3 days until deadline. I need you to tell me who you want to lynch and vote for them. If its someone who isn't ranmaru or dunn I'm going to need a really in depth explanation of why. You should read my case-response-response with ranmaru and tell me what you think.

Shadoweh, I need more from you.

We have 3 days until deadline. If you want to lynch LQ you're going to have to put in some work to tell us why. That involves at the very least ISOing him and making a case. You say your teammates have been scum reading, they should at the very least have some places that you should look.

It's going to be very hard to convince me that he's scum, though, for the reasons I've outlined. I need to know what you think about my ranmaru case and why if you don't think its good.

Gamma, I need more from you. I understand you're waffling and I understand you're having a hard time putting the player list in order, but I need you to start coming to conclusions. I gave town reads, as have a few other players (dan has been very clear on who his town reads are for instance.) If you want to lynch a player that isn't dunn or ranmaru you need to tell us why and make the case. If you don't, you need to get your vote somewhere useful right now.

LQ, I need more from you. I know you're frustrated with dunn still being alive and I know that you don't want to distract from his lynch, but you need to do some leg work. Please explain to people why you think Dunn is scum if you want them to follow you. Please tell people who your town reads are, that way they can better evaluate your opinions and have something to go off of with where you are in this game on anyone besides dunn. Wanting to lynch dunn no matter what is reasonable, being unwilling to engage with the rest of the town is not.

Basically guys we have three days to get this lynch on somewhere useful, and it doesn't feel like a lot of you are trying very hard.

[Thestatusquo]

you missed my vote.

[Thestatusquo]

*automated vote counter puts a vote in the wrong place*
*real life vote counting misses a vote*

THIS is why I automate!

[Thestatusquo]

#confirmationbias

[Thestatusquo]

I'm unsure what the classification by myself means, though I don't suspect it matters too much.

[Thestatusquo]

I've given quite a bit of reasoning for why I don't think either of your scum candidates are scum. You can say that you don't agree with my reasoning, but saying I haven't given it is just factually wrong.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm literally never voting for LQ unless someone convinces me that the arguments for why I think he's town are wrong.

No one who is voting him has even attempted to do that.

I will switch over to dunn if that will counter this absolutely bizarre wagon. OR you people could come join me on ranmaru because no one but gamma has put any effort into interacting with my case.

Dan where the fuck are you. Davsto where the fuck are you.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not feeling a Dan wagon. I'm willing to compromise to Dunn and Shadoweh, as they are the next lowest besides Shea and Davsto.

"i dont care who is lynched. I am willing to vote for 4 players in the game."

come on guys this is fucking obvious.

[Thestatusquo]

come on guys this is fucking obvious.

I generally preach a compromise pool of four people (Note on Day 2 I even suggested people to use a bottom for in terms of compromises). You had a pool of three people, Day 3, and lynched outside of it. It's no different then that.

there are 8 people alive. you are suggesting that you're willing to vote half the playerlist, and I suspect actually that number is higher given other things you've said today.

a) no, I had a group I thought was scum, and then I developed a new scum read and gained a town read. You keep trying to pretend like I voted for ces and had him as a null town read, but that is not the case, and you keep ignoring me when I correct you. Stop trying to subtly discredit me.

b) 3/11 is a pretty big difference from 4+/8. One is, you know, a reasonable suspect pool for someone who is trying to get town reads and narrow down the suspects in a game, the other is over half of the player list.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm voting ranmaru or dunn. I think everyone else is town. I find it highly unlikely that I will be convinced to vote for anyone else, and you guys aren't even trying to convince me. you're just voting and acting as if that's somehow a compelling argument against why I'm town reading people.

Dan thinks marquis was a bus. I disagree very strongly. But at least dan is trying to look at why I think shadoweh is town and deconstruct it. the people voting LQ haven't even tried.

and fucking no one has responded to my case on ranmaru.

[Thestatusquo]

In general, I think Quick's play this game has been confusing, and hasn't really been focused on pro-town results. I think his vote on Dan is bad. Note that there have been multiple times that Quick dropped his read on Shea with little to no reasoning, and Shea has as well, done the same with Quick's slot. So I do see it as likely that they may be scum. The quote that Shadoweh re-posted, shows my main problem with both of them: They seemed more interested in interacting in that manner rather then actually listen to what I was saying (which was, vote dan).

Unvote; Vote: LQ

you can't just say I have no reasoning by ignoring my reasoning. I gave plenty of reasoning.

[Thestatusquo]

this is a really atrocious lynch.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: TSQ

Who would do this?

anyone but you or ranmaru huh?

[Thestatusquo]

no?

[Thestatusquo]

what the fuck lq.

if I were scum I would have fucking banked your easy lynch.

[Thestatusquo]

and gamma too, for that matter.

[Thestatusquo]

whatever.

lynch ran-dunn the next two days and we still win.

[Thestatusquo]

I was playing magic online and opened up the thread before I went to bed.

I have consistently said that I am low activity on weekends, and that is true across my entire last like 5 games.

you have been doing nothing but weasel wording all day and the fact that you haven't been lynched is astounding to me.

the last 2 hours you have posted that my read on LQ "waned." It did not. He made plays that I town read, so my read on him changed. Those reasons have been very clearly laid out. you've done nothing to interact with them, just pulled up quotes that are literally not even talking about the thing you say they're talking about and saying "shea gives no reasoning."

you have said I voted a null town read on ces, but I did not. I switched my read on ces because he did something that I thought was scummy.

you are willing to vote literally anyone in the game but yourself or dunn.

you are scum and if you don't get lynched tomorrow I swear to god this town doesn't deserve to win.

[Thestatusquo]

just read my god damned case everyone. how can everyone read it and tell me I'm wrong? no one has even tried to do that. LQ said it was good, and then voted me. I just don't understand any of you.

Lynch me, lynch ran. Lynch ran, lynch me. It doesn't matter as long as hes not alive after tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

Anyway, I'm going to bed. My votes on ran. If I wake up and I'm dead tomorrow so be it.

[Thestatusquo]

Nice that you seem to come out when a wagon pops up on you but when people are scrambling to secure a lynch, you aren't saying as much.

this is just straight up false. I have posted multiple times this weekend, even though I'm low access on weekends. you'll just say fucking anything.

[Thestatusquo]

so you admit you're just making shit and lying now?

[Thestatusquo]

You did, you are just trying to use his reaction as justification for changing that read. The timing is bad. You have no true 'case' on Dunn, you couldn't even make one. Fair enough on the weekend inactivity. Yet let it be known that when I try to show you my thought process, you don't actually care to interact with it. You never scum read me in Day 3, your case only came up

after

my defense of CES. This is the same case with Davsto.

1) no? peoples reads change because people do town and scum things. LQ did things on day 3 that I think are impossible coming from scum, so I no longer scum read him. thats literally just how mafia works.

2) I answered the dunn point in great detail. Here it is again for you since you're just pretending that didn't happen.

6)

He also has confidence in Dunn being scum yet he can't even case him.

Yes, gut reads exist. In fact, if I were scum trying to mislynch Dunn I can fucking promise you I would have been able to make a fake case and it would have been at least ok. I didn't because I concluded that my read was mostly gut and that wasn't a reasonable thing to ask people to follow me onto. You are taking all of these things and ignoring the town motivations behind them is scummy. Your analysis here is based on trying to make me look bad "LOL SHEA COULDN'T CASE A SCUM READ" while ignoring the fact that I would absolutely make a case as scum and wouldn't as town. Ignoring completely my motivation for WHY I didn't make a case.

3) yes, your play day 3 was significantly more scummy than day 1 and 2. Hence why I find you to be scum because of it. Your play today is also scummy as fuck as you've tried to get almost literally anyone other than yourself lynched.

[Thestatusquo]

No, I realize I was wrong about that point, you are generally away on Weekends.

yeah but you've made a similar attack on every single townie you've gotten mislynched and you've used that argument on me this game before too. Is this just your go to "I'm going to make a completely wrong attack that sounds plausible" in order to ram through a misslynch argument?

I really have to go to bed. I have to wake up for work in 6 hours.

But town I implore you, read ranmarus points and ask yourself if theres actually any scum motivation for the things hes attacking people for. Generally there isn't.

[Thestatusquo]

and look, I made an even more in depth response to the dunn point that you completely ignored.

you can't just use points I've roundly defeated by pretending I didn't answer them.

Like I really want to delve deeper on 6) here.

I have made several cases on scum reads this game. I have made one on ranmaru himself. I have made one on a player that flipped town. Why are you just ignoring this. What is your argument for what you think my motivation was for not casing him? It can't be because you think I don't make cases as scum, because I've done that. It can't be that you think I was trying to get him mislynched as scum, because if thats the case I definitely would have made the case. It can't be because you think we're scum together, because you think my scum partner would be davsto? It can't be because you think I was hoping he would get lynched and that I would be off the wagon because I have continued to vote and push him.

WHY exactly do you think this is scummy? Because I literally can't think of any scum motivation for a scum player not casing a scum read that is under heavy suspicion. The motivations are all town. They are that I didn't want to distract the town with pushing a lynch I couldn't bring people on board for and because I didn't think my gut reasons for scum reading him as opposed to marquis were particularly convincing.

These kinds of arguments look good on paper. You can shout over and over again that I did something that doesn't make perfect sense. I.e. I had a strong scum read on someone I tried to write a case on but couldn't. But its all surface level. You don't seem to care AT ALL about WHY a player might do that. You don't seem to care at all that there isn't really plausible scum motivation to do that. You don't care at all about the fact that you have to ignore multiple stated posts to make this argument. You don't care at all about the fact that my other actions don't fit even a little bit into your narrative.

All of your points are like this. They're attacks that are surface level "here is a thing shea did which I don't understand....SHEA IS SCUM."

That's just not a town mindset. Town wants to dig down and find the motivations behind why people are doing things. Town doesn't look at an action and say "this is weird must be scum." Scum does that because scum wants to push the town to mislynch people, and they don't need to be right, they only need to sound convincing and plausible. You seem way more concerned with sounding good than being right.

[Thestatusquo]

Have you been paying literally attention to LQ this game? Have you been paying literally any attention to ANYTHING in this game besides marquis?

Because I've had to do that like 5 times.

VOTE: ces

L-1.

If we lynch dunn/

marquis

/

ces

/

NSG

we win the game.

oh wow this post is pretty bad

what? this is just an outright lie. marquis is colored green on that post but has NOT FLIPPED.

this is one flipped town one flipped scum and two unflipped players, one of which is still likely to be scum.

[Thestatusquo]

that flip from gamma is really bad. He went from "shea is town" and had me listed as a top town read earlier, to voting me 2 posts later.

If ran is scum its possible gamma is the buddy instead of dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

1. I'm talking about the CES read. You only reconsidered at the last minute.
2. Originally your push on Dunn was never convincing, you said 'there's nothing there' which is why to me, that was more of a null. So you not being able to case him, doesn't make sense when you have strong conviction. You stating it is GUT, is your only fall back. Otherwise, you would have said it was gut from the beginning.
3. Your case was talking about days before Day 3, so I don't understand why you say that. It would make more sense for you to have brought this up before today. Your case wasn't based on actions only coming from Day 4. So, it makes more sense that you are indeed using CES's flip to push me/dunn rather then push me before hand, which would make more sense if you truly did believe in it.

1) the ces read changed because it was based on meta. I have played many many games with ces. He was mostly playing to his town meta. That response, as I explained multiple times, does not fit in my town meta of ces. Town ces would never respond that way. I have explained this at least 3 times. You are actively ignoring those posts to make this argument.

2) this is not responsive to any of the things I quoted. Whats my motivation ran? WHY is it scummy?

3) my case is talking about the sum total of your actions. the majority of it is based on how on day 3 you were willing to vote literally the whole town besides the scum. as well as the actions and tactics you have that have significant scum motivation.

but saying its not based on 3 is definitely a lie. the vast majority of the case is talking about day 3. much of it is predicated on your suspicions and votin patterns on day 3 specifically.

can you stop fucking bald face lying?

[Thestatusquo]

Put simply, your pool of [Dunn, NSG, Marquis] shows that you had less options to go for at the time. Again, this goes back to you having static reads. That is why you are not able to CASE dunn, you had little fuel. You say you *CAN* make cases as scum, and I'm not disputing that. At that time, you had no other cases you could make, so you had to just default to that, and default to sheeping me onto Marquis.

what...you're attacking me for having static reads while at the same time attacking me for my read on LQ changing.

don't you see how fucking incoherant you're being?

[Thestatusquo]

it's like shea wants all my towns to be on the table as potential scum, which i find to be ill intended

when someone is as wrong about the entirety of this game as you are, lots of people are going to disagree with you.

LQ is town. Dan is town. Davsto is town.

Any attempts to push any of those three will be met with swift resistence from me.

Marquis and gamma are also likely to be town, but gammas actions right now are not good.

[Thestatusquo]

Like I don't know how ranmaru keeps metadiving me to come up with these little out of context quotes to try to implicate me while at the same time not seeing the posts that explain exactly the thing he says didn't happen in detail. They're there, usually only a few points below the snippet hes quoting.

I don't know how he could miss that my vote on ces was based on meta while finding other quotes talking about ces.

Either he is deliberately not saying them, or he is not trying to actually find what I said on the subject.

[Thestatusquo]

I will vote dunn or ranmaru. If people want to make those wagons happen I'll gladly jump on. I'd rather take our no lynch today than lynch someone thats obviously town.

[Thestatusquo]

1)
It's literally even directed at you with a helpful little @sign.
viewtopic.php?p=9942710#p9942710

Why are you not seeing this stuff? My read on ces was based on meta. I even said so in a post DIRECTED AT YOU.

2) thats bs. I addressed everything you just said in the post I quoted. Clearly I continued to push him, so I was obviously not trying to make it look like I wasn't scum reading him AND I have not shied away from being on any lynch this game that I thought was scum. This just doesn't make sense at all.

3) your actions around ces were super scummy and my I wasn't focusing on you day 3 like I was after day 3 happened. I let you skate by on day 1 and 2 town cred, but your day 3 play was basically a scum claim.

[Thestatusquo]

If me being lynched gets ran lynched tomorrow I'm all for it. People will look back at this misrepresentation cherry picking and straight up lies and see what I see really fucking clearly.

If we lynch me and then ran it wins the game just as much as if we lynch ran right now.

So the best play I have is to take ran down with me.

1) no, I said he was more aggressive in being hyper focused, but that he was hyper focused in the other game too and I considered it a small difference in play.

2) what?

3) Just because you push for things when you're being ignorant does not mean all town does that.

[Thestatusquo]

if you read that and thats what you're talking about how can you possibly think my read on ces wasn't based on me thinking he was playing to his town meta. That's literally what that post says.

[Thestatusquo]

Yes. He also didn't have CES in his pool until that very point, which makes more sense as scum taking advantage of a bus rather then town just jumping on at the last minute.

Actually I don't remember if CES was mentioned one way or the other before NSG's case but that does remind me that I do think I did pause briefly when Shea critiqued CES's response to NSG's case wherein he said something along the lines of "CES is answering the same thing twice" or somettinhg and it wasn't really true. lemme go back

thats not what I said, I said that CES' answers to the case were basically that NSGs case is misrepping him or taking things out of context and he tried to use this to invalidate multiple points in the case when I didn't think she was doing either of those things.

[Thestatusquo]

My ces read is basically that CES is being useless but that this doesn't make him scum

. If you look at The first mafia, for instance, he's very similar in my eyes. Hyper focused on weirdly specific parts of the game. Relatively same level of participation in the game by total post count, its similar right down to the hammer graphic he posted in this game. He's a little bit more aggressive in his hyper specific focuses, but that's a pretty small difference in play. Basically I think everyone scum reading ces isn't really bothering to meta him. I'm not saying he's town, as you can see by my read list but I think lockscumming him over other players doesn't make a lot of sense once you look deeper into his meta.

You use the meta to defend him. It would make more sense for you to support his wagon before L-2. Not after.

that post is before his response to the nsg case, which is the thing which I didn't think fit into his town meta. Hence, my read changed. Because I no longer felt he was playing to his town meta. I've said this at least 3 times.

The case happened, he responded. I thought the response was BS and not from town ces, I voted.

[Thestatusquo]

Lycan LQ is fucking town.

[Thestatusquo]

I swear to god if you guys lynch me and then LQ tomorrow to lose what should be an easy victory I am going to be so fucking pissed.

If I die today, promise me its ran tomorrow.

[Thestatusquo]

I disagree strongly with that.

do you really want me to dig through the response to show you all the times he says the same thing?

[Thestatusquo]

thats not what I said, I said that CES' answers to the case were basically that NSGs case is misrepping him or taking things out of context and he tried to use this to invalidate multiple points in the case when I didn't think she was doing either of those things.

Yeah, you're right, I just remembered disagreeing at the time but not thinking much of it

here is some highlights of why I felt that way, since apparently I'm just going to be useless at work tomorrow anyway:

Outright inaccuracies (I explained my 'marblevote in #870)

Leaving out relevant context (i.e. Marquis was on 5 votes this entire time).

I have talked about the meta point - it was specifically in relation to Marquis' "Please hold as I forward you to a representative"-nonsense; he used a similarly annoying affectation in the linked scum game (albeit for longer). I obviously just gave a summary of my Marquisread in #3095 that I encourage everyone to read but

anyone who's been reading my Day 3 posts with any sort of attention should know your core claim here is just outright false.

If you want to quote meta evidence, actually quote (or link) it because this doesn't pass the smell test and this whole case is long enough that people aren't exactly going to be incentivised to read my iso in another game too.

This manages us to be inaccurate in 3 different ways.

Saying that I "argue[d] that" is an overstatement

But let's take the bigger picture.

And I don't need to respond to section 6 because it's just a summary of the previous stuff. Huzzah, I can go do work now!

I thought the theme was very clear here.

[Thestatusquo]

I thought he was overly dismissive of the case. CES town doesn't respond to a case that spot on by basically saying that NSG was misunderstanding everything and that she was taking him out of context. Especially when she wasn't.

[Thestatusquo]

I will obviously lynch dunn.

He's the second likeliest scum player.

[Thestatusquo]

If we're going to vote dunn we need to do it soon because I legitimately have to be on the train to work at 7 am tomorrow.

VOTE: dunnestral

ran is the more likely to be scum, and I wish you people would just vote him.

[Thestatusquo]

dan wouldnt get blamed by literally anyone for hammering me there. He might catch some heat because he was town reading me, but I think if dan were scum the play there would be to hammer. Dan is a good enough scum player to know that. And I think that you are ignoring relevant info because of your pet theories which are very unlikely to be correct.

[Thestatusquo]

I think I fundamentally disagree with you about it, then.

I think that would also be a rather weird thing to scum read me for though.

[Thestatusquo]

there's three scenarios where dan does not hammer you. you found one. good work.

from my perspective I don't really have to waste much time thinking about the scenario me and dan are scum together.

whats the third one out of curiosity.

[Thestatusquo]

Sorry Dan, don't mean to rush you. I'd still like your vote on Shea though. Would you be willing to join me there, or would you prefer to vote me instead at this time?

this is so fucking obviously scum that I don't even know what to say.

[Thestatusquo]

you could vote davsto if you are game throwing or high or scum.

those are pretty much the only scenarios tho.

[Thestatusquo]

He wasnt going for me today. In fact, he even declared that he thought that I was likely to be town because of the ces vote yesterday. I can quote that for you if you'd like.

Then as soon as I started attacking him he forgot all about that and wham bam all of a sudden I'm scum again. Then no one went for it and he unvoted me and then at the last second hes back on me.

his pattern actually fits perfectly with scum behavior.

[Thestatusquo]

Hello. The remaining scum is Marquis and Action Dan. I am fine with being put at L-2 or L-1 today while I make a case, vca, and final reads list in the case I'm mislynched today. I will not vote outside of those two today. I still think Town will win with or without me. I suggest today should be used with asking me questions about my mindset if I do die today, that way you can consider it in light of my town flip.

I think Quick, Gamma, and Shea all get town credit for their reaction to NSG's CES case.

I think CES's scum flip is the best town can ask for, since his flip gives more information rather then a Marquis or Action Dan scum flip.

Ranmaru is willing to disregard all posts and all arguments to make disingenuous pushes on me.

even his own.

[Thestatusquo]

once again, ranmaru continues to be willing to lynch literally more than half of the game.

[Thestatusquo]

Hello. The remaining scum is Marquis and Action Dan. I am fine with being put at L-2 or L-1 today while I make a case, vca, and final reads list in the case I'm mislynched today. I will not vote outside of those two today. I still think Town will win with or without me. I suggest today should be used with asking me questions about my mindset if I do die today, that way you can consider it in light of my town flip.

I think Quick, Gamma, and Shea all get town credit for their reaction to NSG's CES case.

I think CES's scum flip is the best town can ask for, since his flip gives more information rather then a Marquis or Action Dan scum flip.

Ranmaru is willing to disregard all posts and all arguments to make disingenuous pushes on me.

even his own.

Yeah, I don't like the way Ran has played D2+. It's not really "good" play even though he "Considers" a lot of different angles.

then why the hell did you follow him onto me.

[Thestatusquo]

shrug, I guess thats fair.

[Thestatusquo]

I didn't reverse my reads at the last minute. I spent the remaining many days left in that day lobbying for that lynch while people actively resisted it, yourself included. I didn't vote ces with 1 day til deadline and hammer. I changed my mind and then I lobbied hard for the list, including trying to get you on it repeatedly.

I wasn't a passive participant. I actively tried to make that lynch happen after voting it. If its a bus why wouldn't I hop on and hope the wagon dissipated. It definitely could have if I hadn't been continuing to push on it, especially with you doing everything in your power to stop it

[Thestatusquo]

I would rather take our no lynch right now than lynch dan.

[Thestatusquo]

there is literally only one other person I could be talked into voting today besides ran and dunn and thats gamma, because I didn't like his ces interactions or his interactions with ran.

I think hes so much less likely to be scum than dunn and ran that it would be a severely non-optimal lynch though.

[Thestatusquo]

Who would vote davsto?

NO ONE, I hope.

[Thestatusquo]

how could you possibly look at davstos ces interactions and think that scum pairing makes sense?

[Thestatusquo]

the only problem with davsto in this game is that hes not here right now to shift his vote to dunn or at the very least be a voice of reason.

[Thestatusquo]

how could you possibly look at davstos ces interactions and think that scum pairing makes sense?

Let's talk about this. Do you think his reasoning to vote CES initially was solid?

why? is it because you want to spring another "trap" on me about things I've already explained three times?

you're scum reading me against all reasoning and I think you're scum so really what incentive do I have to "talk with you" about anything?

I don't think you're acting in good faith, and I don't see any place this discussion goes thats good for the town.

[Thestatusquo]

yes, I switched over from dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

because many times this game you've asked me seemingly inoccuous questions and then posted some attack immediately after I answered them.

the last one was actually ABOUT my davsto read ffs.

[Thestatusquo]

I have nothing in mind, I just am genuinely confused why people don't see Davsto/CES when I do.

maybe if you had bothered to explain it instead of pushing me all day we could have a conversation, but you've pretty much blown all credibility in my mind in terms of any of your theories with the fact that they only seem to exist when they're convenient for you. I just don't see a world where you actually see davsto-ces, where you spend all day pushing me either.

[Thestatusquo]

What the fuck was that TSQ vote bullshit? Ranmaru was clearly bluffing and panicking. The fact that the momentum was put onto it by Dunn and Ran is even more of a red flag.

I still want a Ran lynch but I think it seems impossible at this point.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Justify voting me - why am I scum?

name one pro town thing you have done this game.

[Thestatusquo]

I have nothing in mind, I just am genuinely confused why people don't see Davsto/CES when I do.

if you think I'm scum why are you "genuinely curious" about why I agree with you about what would be, from your POV, my scum buddy.

[Thestatusquo]

Lq, you are lying about creature. He doesn't have thos reads, he wouldn't have that read on me, and there's no accountability for him switching his reads on the spot to suit your vote like that

LOL, great case, top kek.

So it seems your case on me is based on things that cannot be proven. Why am I not surprised?

Why did creature's read on me change?

Why was he scumreading me?

What the fuck was that TSQ vote bullshit? Ranmaru was clearly bluffing and panicking. The fact that the momentum was put onto it by Dunn and Ran is even more of a red flag.

I still want a Ran lynch but I think it seems impossible at this point.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Justify voting me - why am I scum?

name one pro town thing you have done this game.

I stopped responding to you at one point

no sorry, not posting anything of substance at all does not count.

[Thestatusquo]

cool. your read on dunn has shifted a lot and part of why you're so likely to be scum in my mind is you've moved in concert the last few days, you said he was scum at some point but never pushed him and quickly unvoted and have never voted him when it matters.

its very similar to your interaction with ces to be honest.

I'd like you to tell me, right now, why you think dunn is not scum.

[Thestatusquo]

cool. your read on dunn has shifted a lot and part of why you're so likely to be scum in my mind is you've moved in concert the last few days, you said he was scum at some point but never pushed him and quickly unvoted and have never voted him when it matters.

its very similar to your interaction with ces to be honest.

I'd like you to tell me, right now, why you think dunn is not scum.

I'm not confident in him being scum. I'm trying to be more accurate rather then just lynch incorrectly. That's why, generally I never go for players like Dunn, in general. My interaction with CES is similar to my interaction with yourself as well. I gave everyone the benefit of the doubt. I even gave Marquis the benefit of the doubt. The only concern I had with Dunn was 1) Not voting CES with me and 2) Voting LQ when he town read him. That's it. I see nothing else to vote Dunn for, when I see more for you, davsto, and quick.

this is false. you have pushed me hard multiple times this game. you have attempted to get me lynched multiple times this game. you have called for others to vote me with you multiple times this game. you didn't do any of those things with ces or with dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

If it meant lynching someone in my town pile I would no lynch here in a heartbeat. If dunn is town for you it makes sense to not vote. I don't really understand why hes town for you, though.

[Thestatusquo]

anyway, I'm going to bed for real this time. Work tomorrow is going to be fucking dreadful.

gl hf.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't think you ever reconsidered. your pushes on me follow a pattern. you declare me to be town for some small thing after no one joins with you, then you push someone else for a while, then someone else expresses suspicion of me, and you jump back to pushing me again.

you have declared me town almost exclusively when no one was willing to vote me and declared me scum when someone else said I might be scum.

this is part of what I mean when I say your positions are convenient to you.

[Thestatusquo]

I have a 2 week suspension from work. Sorry to hear you will have a bad day though. I know how that feels.

hey oog, just want you to know that I've read a bit of your blog and if you ever need to talk I have an inbox.

[Thestatusquo]

(I just wish that deadlines werent at 3am my time. But I know no matter what time someone would get screwed.)

[Thestatusquo]

Theres a lot going on in a mafia game at any given time and everyone misses things. I don't understand why you think that is indicative of alignment.

My main problem is just how convenient all your actions have been.

Your tone is super town in the last hour or so though.

:/

[Thestatusquo]

I just don't really know who could possibly be scum if you're town.

It would have to be 2 of {dunn lq gamma} and I think LQ is so so so likely to be town?

I just don't know, and all the possible combinations I see include dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

jesus christ

[Thestatusquo]

I just don't really know who could possibly be scum if you're town.

...shadoweh?

yes she should be in that tier too in a world ran is town.

the problem is that I think that she and gamma are completely opposite.

gamma has bled townie with his words, but a lot of their actions have not been pro town at all, especially wrt ces.

marquis slot has been very not townie with their posts, but the actions of ces and marquis to each other are not a bus in my mind.

I'm not sure which is more likely to be scum though.

[Thestatusquo]

i think my last point just touched on how I feel about shadoweh.

I'm not sure what this means

you said that if you were scum, you wouldn't just push [dunn, nsg, marquis] when you did give that Action Dan and Davsto were players that could be scum.

could you clarify?

I didn't look into dan and davsto because I am pretty confident they are town. Dan's posts all scream townie to me. And I feel like his posts in this lylo reinforce that point. His tone and his reads that dig deep into the game and his response to my calls to be louder are all super town to me. Davsto is much the same, and I feel like his actions wrt ces are just very hard to see as a bus. you tell me you disagree, but I just don't see it. Why would scum davsto jump on ces that early when there was a perfectly viable counter wagon? why would he be so insistent that ces be lynched?

I think NL today is functionally the same as NL tomorrow, except we lose the even/odds. If dan firmly believes the lynch candidates are town I think its rational for him to prefer a no lynch.

I would make the exact same play if forced to choose between, say, LQ and dan right now.

[Thestatusquo]

i think my last point just touched on how I feel about shadoweh.

I'm not sure what this means

you said that if you were scum, you wouldn't just push [dunn, nsg, marquis] when you did give that Action Dan and Davsto were players that could be scum.

could you clarify?

I didn't look into dan and davsto because I am pretty confident they are town. Dan's posts all scream townie to me. And I feel like his posts in this lylo reinforce that point. His tone and his reads that dig deep into the game and his response to my calls to be louder are all super town to me. Davsto is much the same, and I feel like his actions wrt ces are just very hard to see as a bus. you tell me you disagree, but I just don't see it. Why would scum davsto jump on ces that early when there was a perfectly viable counter wagon? why would he be so insistent that ces be lynched?

I think NL today is functionally the same as NL tomorrow, except we lose the even/odds. If dan firmly believes the lynch candidates are town I think its rational for him to prefer a no lynch.

I would make the exact same play if forced to choose between, say, LQ and dan right now.

also, functionally it seems weird to me that you'd call out this choice on dan as if he's the only person making it. You are currently making the same choice by not voting dunn.

[Thestatusquo]

but by not voting dunn you are choosing to a NL over dunn. you could choose to lynch dunn but you are choosing to have a nl instead. its the same choice dan is making, though you are right that you are voting someone and he is not.

[Thestatusquo]

he's just being explicit about it.

[Thestatusquo]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

[Thestatusquo]

I think thats wifom.

[Thestatusquo]

also lol did you just "prove me wrong" meme in thread?

[Thestatusquo]

[Thestatusquo]

also lol did you just "prove me wrong" meme in thread?

Yes
As for the kill spec being WIFOM I 100% should have been the kill so I feel incensed to investigate into anything else, anyway why do you think that's an incorrect conclusion? AD was probably the only person pushing Shadow.

Because AD is exactly the kill I would pick if I was trying to get people to lynch shadow to lose the game.

[Thestatusquo]

Also I take it from this conversation that people don't want to NL today? If that's the case I'd like people to reconsider. Forcing the mafia to take someone else out has a lot of value.

[Thestatusquo]

6 down to 5 with a lynch 4 with a kill endgamed.

I don't see why it would be different. With 2 scum and 2 town scum can force a NL and kill at night so that seems like endgame to me.

Yeah the dan kill has a lot of equity in making me think the pairing is Ran-Gamma. Which I don't think I think it is?

I don't know what I think right now and need to reevaluate.

This is part of why I want to discuss if we're NLing before we get into discussion too hard. If we end up NLing I'm not sure that I think its all that productive to discuss what we think too much today because it allows scum to choose the correct NK if they know what everyone thinks is likely in terms of pairings. If we NL and they don't know too well what we're thinking they might accidentally eliminate one of the pairing possibilities.

[Thestatusquo]

I WANT EVERYONE TO ADDRESS TO NL CONVERSATION BEFORE WE GET TO SCUM HUNTING FOR THIS REASON.

if we NL today we don't want to have too much discussion because it informs the scum kill too much.

[Thestatusquo]

If we're not NLing today then don't worry about it, but I don't want to NL at the end of 2 weeks of conversation giving the scum a perfect idea of who to kill. If we're NLing we need to do it early.

[Thestatusquo]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

Besides many of my scum-Ran reasons sort of being based in my head and on paper around a Ran/Dunn team, the scum!Ran that defended CES like he did would have quickly let the Dun mislynch happen rather than arguing against it as he did, as it would help discredit me somewhat (a hard Ran-pusher) and reduce the heat on him (since I know I at least considered a lot of the Ran-scum evidence to come from him and Dun).

Obviously that could just be improved scumplay yesterday but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that.

Looks like there's no interest in a NL. :/

The only team pairs that make sense to me if we buy that Ran is town are

LQ - Gamma
LQ - Shadoweh.

I don't think shadoweh - gamma would make much sense because of the meta dive that cheet did.

I am not sure if I buy LQ as scum, I don't know that I believe he's capable of making those pushes as scum, but maybe I'm giving scum-LQ too much credit. Maybe posting really bad nonsense is NAI for him?

I need to reevaluate and reread. I should dive some LQ scum games too.

[Thestatusquo]

well ran is probably town

Can you tell me why you think that? I felt kind of similar at the end of the day based on tone, but its hard for me to disregard the rest of how I feel about the slot, but I have a hard time figuring out who his partner would be besides dunn. The only other option is gamma imo.

Also, are we NLing today or are we just going for it? I think my preference is to NL to get the numbers.

Besides many of my scum-Ran reasons sort of being based in my head and on paper around a Ran/Dunn team, the scum!Ran that defended CES like he did would have quickly let the Dun mislynch happen rather than arguing against it as he did, as it would help discredit me somewhat (a hard Ran-pusher) and reduce the heat on him (since I know I at least considered a lot of the Ran-scum evidence to come from him and Dun).

Obviously that could just be improved scumplay yesterday but it seems a bit of a stretch to say that.

Why did you vote for ranmaru all day and then switch to dunn reluctantly if many of your reasons for voting ranmaru were based on Dunn being scum together???

This doesn't really ring true to me.

Am I losing my mind?

[Thestatusquo]

those quotes are in no way incongruous with each other?

[Thestatusquo]

I am considering you, since I kind of doubt ranmaru is scum right now and that means the whole game doesn't make sense to me.

I'm considering other people too. I'm not prepared to vote or pressure anyone until I have time to deep dive everything.

[Thestatusquo]

which is kind of why I wanted to no lynch because I was hoping to get a kill on one of the people I am now unsure about

[Thestatusquo]

Why did your shadoweh scumread weaken? What do you think of my reasons for suspecting Shadoweh/Marquis?

Gamma, Shea, talk to me here.

I dont want to because there seems to be some momentum towards a no lynch and as I have explained if we're going to do that I absolutely do not want to discuss things that give scum a better idea of who their kill should be.

[Thestatusquo]

I wish we were all in favor of a no lynch or all opposed. We're in this middle ground where we're still posting information for the scum but might not NL.

So I will propose a deadline.

I'm going to VOTE: No Lynch

If this doesn't happen in the next 48 hours then I'll switch to try hard trying to lynch today and will not consider a NL after that point.

[Thestatusquo]

Also I will be VLA more than usual this weekend. I'll be out of town without computer access.

[Thestatusquo]

I thought you said you were opposed to NL? What changed your mind?

[Thestatusquo]

Davsto
Shadoweh
Thestatusquo
LicketyQuickety
Ranmaru

That means we have the following possible combinations:
Davsto - shadoweh
Davsto - thestatusquo
Davsto - LQ
Davsto - Ran
Shadoweh - thestatusquo
Shadoweh - LQ
Shadoweh - Ran
Thestatusquo - LQ
thestatusquo - Ran
LicketyQuickety - Ran

From my POV, eliminating myself gives me:

Davsto - shadoweh
Davsto - LQ
Davsto - Ran
LQ - Shadoweh
Ran - Shadoweh
LicketyQuickety - Ran

If I order these from most likely to least likely in my mind given how I feel about individual players:
LQ - Ran
LQ - Shadoweh
Davsto - Ran
Davsto - shadoweh
Davsto - LQ


Basically Davsto is my strongest town read by a lot, Ran and shadoweh are all kind of equivalent to me in that they all have reasonable reasons for me to think they're both town and scum. I think if davsto were going to be scum with anyone it would be with ranmaru because of how he spent 2 days ago attacking him and then immediately backed off, but again I think thats unlikely and the same argument could be made for me because I also agreed with Davsto's assessment of that situation.

I think this means that I should be voting LQ but also I want to go back and read his interactions with ran and shadoweh and see if I think one or both of them makes a more plausible buddy so I know who else I should be willing to vote for.

[Thestatusquo]

I also want to get some team input here. I've asked and I'm not getting much since they're mostly checked out of the tournament as a whole besides cheet and sometimes reck.

[Thestatusquo]

It's not davsto in my mind, so that leaves me with you - LQ - Shadoweh.

Not in that order. I think you all have reasons to think you're scum and reasons to think you're not.

Gun to my head I think LQ is the player that makes the most sense individually as scum.

Not sure he makes a lot of sense with shadoweh as a partner unless they pulled a very dangerous gambit.

[Thestatusquo]

Davsto, same from you. Can I get your top three suspects you would vote out and why?

Top three? What the hell is the point to this question? Why not just ask who they are TRing the most?

I agree, in practice thats what this question accomplishes. My answer should have been obvious from my pairing break down post.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm here, I got pulled into an office and yelled at for my non work computer usage. If you look at my site activity in general, I've been only fleetingly on MS.

Got my prod and I went to a coffee shop at lunch to post.

I still feel the same way about my targets.

[Thestatusquo]

I think that the fact that we haven't had a hammer means we can rule out the possibility of tvt or svs, which is not particularly useful but its also not nothing.

Which I think makes the pairing either ran/lq or ran/shadoweh.

[Thestatusquo]

rans vote then unvote on shadoweh is the kind of gambit I might expect scum to pull on the last day as hard distancing.

[Thestatusquo]

I don't see any reason to unvote, Shadoweh. I would consider moving to Shea if you want. That's the only place I'd move my vote to.

unvote

this is just theatre, right?

[Thestatusquo]

I think from my perspective ranmaru has to be scum.

If I think davsto is clear and I don't think shadoweh and LQ is scum vs scum that means that ranmaru has to be scum with whichever one of them is scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Why do I

have

to be scum from your perspective, over Shadodeweh? Have you considered any town motivation from my unvote?

To me, no one is outright clear. Davsto not voting Shadoweh leads me to believe he may be clear or scum with Shadoweh. I'm wary of Quick not wanting to change to Shea. Yet, while being in the shower, I still find Shadoweh to have the best chance of being scum. I don't know why you don't see that. I'm ready to vote now. I don't want to convince myself out of this, as it feels right.

What? This seems like aggressively misunderstanding my argument.

I believe the following things are true:
1) Davsto is town
2) Exactly one of LQ and Shadoweh is scum, but not both.

Given those two facts, there is only one player who can be the second scum in that scenario, which is you.

I made zero arguments about who I think is more likely to be scum between LQ and shadoweh, just that it doesn't matter to me, because from the two things I believe to be true about the game, you have to be scum. There's literally no other possibility from my pov.

VOTE: ranmaru

and this hemming and hawing vote unvote I wont unvote two posts later now I will unvote now I'm ready to vote stuff is making me even more happy with this choice.

[Thestatusquo]

to go back to my earlier post about possible combinations:

Davsto - shadoweh
Davsto - LQ
Davsto - Ran
LQ - Shadoweh
Ran - Shadoweh
LicketyQuickety - Ran

these are the possible pairings from my pov. eliminating davsto gives me

LQ - Shadoweh
Ran - Shadoweh
LicketyQuickety - Ran

eliminating the possibility that lq and shadoweh are scum together gives me:
Ran - Shadoweh
LicketyQuickety - Ran

ergo if I believe davsto is town, you are scum.

This is also true from Davsto's perspective too if he believes me to be town, which he might not.

It also holds true from LQs perspective if he believes me and davsto are town.

[Thestatusquo]

same with shadoweh.

ranmaru should probably be voting me for the same logic. Given he thinks I'm way more likely to be scum than davsto, it doesn't make any sense that hes not voting me.

[Thestatusquo]

wait what, you think its davsto now?

why?

just why?

[Thestatusquo]

I how would there have been a hammer on you if you ranmaru was scum?

[Thestatusquo]

Not in depth, I'm about to go to bed so I don't want to pull up all the reasons why I think davsto is town, but I have made many posts about it and I don't think anything has really changed.

If you have specific questions about my positions re: davsto I can answer them, but the burden is on you to convince me that he could be scum, not on me to convince you that I'm not wrong.

[Thestatusquo]

That is a fair reason, and dispels my concern. The team is Shadow and Shea. Shea seems to be trying to avoid Shadow for a while now. Davsto, what do you think of Shea voting outside of LQ v Shadow?

so your argument for me being town was that I didn't hammer shadow and now your argument for me being scum is that I'm avoiding shadow?

I put to you, what would you do as town in my spot where I think 1 of 2 of the players voting each other is scum and I am pretty sure that one person not voting is town?

Vote for the person I that has to be lock scum from that perspective.

By this logic, by the way, davsto should be voting me if he thinks that ranmaru is for sure town.