Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

happy 420

hello Calvin!
VOTE: Auro

[GuiltyLion]

I thought you weren't gonna RVS?

-Smart

I have the feeling this isn't random.
Just a feeling.

Is it actually just a feeling?

I’d like to hear your thoughts on nom too.

I don't like the 2 naked votes then a "pagetop"

I would like to see them get more involved in the game

Literally just completed page 1 and you had an issue with someone's involvement in the game already?

howdy i have mechanical reasons to wish to be on all wagons

VOTE: BBMolla

This is pinging me

-Smarter

Co-sign.

this post feels like pretend scumhunting to me!

VOTE: arcyon

also gut early reads skitter town, smart hydra town, karnage town. I like Auro's posts so far too but I'm a lil too paranoid there to also give an early townread

[GuiltyLion]

gl's post is pinging me the wrong way

why does this always happen

you agree that the post I quoted is bad, right? and personally I wasn't impressed with the reply to me either.

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion, what's the difference between "I like his posts" and "gut early townread"? Paranoia is a word I see thrown more as the game progresses, instead of right at the start.

We have only two games where I was scum against you, no? One of them you caught me (marathon tho) and the other I recall just killing you N1 before you had a chance to.

ehhh you know it's not a huge difference I guess, and I wasn't saying that because I'm scared of scum!you in particular, it's more just I felt I had town!pings from those slots bc they were doing things that I didn't find natural to fake as scum, whereas with your posts I was finding myself more agreeing with them than thinking "oh yeah scum isn't likely to post this".

It's not a major thing and if you pushed me further on it I dunno if I'd be able to convincingly show exactly why the read felt different, was mostly operating off of my first gut impression reading through.

How do you like my acryon vote?

[GuiltyLion]

Smart - which part of it?

I didn't like the "How many games" question, felt more like a 'gotcha!' in focusing on # of games rather than a genuine avenue toward's understanding nom's POV, they felt all too eager to dismiss their 47 as 'I'm not scum hunting yet and I'm rusty' - I think town would have been a bit more insulted or confused - and the last line is just an OMGUS-y threat. Genuinely interested to hear where you see town in that.

[GuiltyLion]

that seems pretty easy to write as scum IMO but I appreciate the answer

[GuiltyLion]

yah I just saw it as a deflection, possibly rooted in awareness that the original questions felt forced. "hey you can't push me for that, I'm just asking

friendly questions

". I guess in writing this out though it might comes down to differing interpretations of tone.

p-edit: oh you're going the 'too scummy to be scum' route I guess

[GuiltyLion]

I just wished he were more indignant. I accused him! Why would he be so willing to acknowledge that they were weak questions but then also suggest that I'm a good vote because I pushed him on it, it also feels like there's dissonance there.

[GuiltyLion]

@Smart - it doesn't fit a range of responses that I would expect from town, no

[GuiltyLion]

Can you point to anything Skitter did that you find unnatural to fake as scum?

she opened by giving townreads on you and Karnage based off of your opening posts, then further also gave reason to townread Eve in 56, that's narrowing her lynchpool very quickly and generally I think a decent indicator of town when done in the way she did, bringing novel townreads ASAP (as opposed to agreeing with consensus townreads). I also liked her acryon vote/timing, it was the right diagnosis of which slot needed pressure the most IMO.

I guess "unnatural" was a strong way to phrase that but in general she strikes me as building a town bloc and focusing on areas that are likely to draw out AI info.

why shouldn't skitter get to be on a lynch? you said you were townreading her?

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion: Is it implied anywhere in his posts that he found you a good vote because you pushed him on it? The quoted part does not imply that, for me. Perhaps I missed it.
Do you think he should have unvoted you because he acknowledged your attack had some merit to it?

he directly responded to me pushing him and then said he liked keeping his vote there, I didn't think it's a stretch to assume those things are related. If he has other reasons for voting me then those are absent from his post.

Your other question feels a bit leading - generally I don't like it when anybody is voting me, as a rule. If he himself can see that his post didn't look like scumhunting then he needs to give more explanation as to whether and/or why he finds me suspicious for calling that out.

p-edit - yes actually I'd love that lol

[GuiltyLion]

Please correct me if I’m wrong here since my theory skills leave something to be desired - in terms of theory, I think we can’t leave Eve alive when (if) we get to LYLO. I can’t imagine she’ll be the NK unless scum believes her claim, as there’s just enough WIFOM there to produce confusion for us. Not saying she needs to be the lynch today (although I’d be okay with it if we can’t compromise anywhere else), but I do think she needs to be lynched before LYLO. Thoughts?

I think traffic analyst should just claim the day before LYLO, then if there's a CC situation then we can safely lynch both. Unless I'm missing some drawback to that, I don't think we need to plan to lynch Eve solely because of that claim post

[GuiltyLion]

142 from GuiltyLion doesn’t feel great. I’m always wary of people trying to paint a big picture based on a post or two early on. RVS stage is far from useless, but it typically doesn’t lead to these kinds of revelations.

what "big picture" do you think I was painting with that post? I was answering a question directed at me.

and would it change your mind if I showed you numerous examples from my past where town!me tries to make reads as quickly as possible? I hate RVS

[GuiltyLion]

I‘m leaning towards town!GL. GL seems to be transparent in his thought process and reasoning

Subject: Newbie 1995 Mafia PT

okay so I've played with Karnage / George before. George is somewhat mislynchable IIRC, Karnage I think I've only seen his scumgame but he seems competent, we might have to plan on NKing him

generally I don't like to bus - people will WIFOM their way out of a lot of associatives as long as you are actually engaging with your partner to some degree - and my goal is to make sure all my pushes sound reasonable/genuine. It works pretty well in newbie games cause newbies often fall for the logical = townie fallacy and there are usually enough lurksacks / people-playing-weird to burn through the first couple mislynches. but lemme know what your experience is, what you feel comfortable with, etc

I just wanted to add this here, sorry for the shade, GuiltyLion

did you actually read the game in addition to the mafia PT? What do you think of my play here so far compared to that Newbie game?

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion rolls up on acryon's house and sees him working in the front by some soil where he's planting seeds. GuiltyLion says "Wow that's a bad garden. You don't even have anything growing." Not only would it be 1) disingenuous and silly to criticize the garden at that stage, it's also 2) possible acryon is planting the seeds exactly right, and it is going to be a good garden. I'm less interested in arguing 2), but 1) is why I have an issue with what GL did.

to borrow your metaphor, FMPOV what happened was I saw you planting rocks, not real seeds. I entirely disagree with 2). And how is it disingenuous to criticize what I saw as planting rocks? Scum are scum and faking, no matter how far along they are in growing their fake garden.

that said, I do kinda like your other posts the past couple of pages and honestly appreciate this metaphor lol

VOTE: Allomancer
I've got strong townreads on both nom and Limit Hydra and I agree Allo isn't really taking any stances so far this game.

[GuiltyLion]

@nom, @GL, I'd like to hear from you two regarding your reads on Auro. GL, have your feelings on him changed since the "paranoia" back and forth?

Gut take before I finish catching up - I'm feeling really mixed on him, overall lean town but a level of confidence below most of my good townreads:

reasons I have for thinking he's town:
- I've clashed with him before similarly when TvT so I can imagine him being town here similarly (referring to Auro as Michael Scott hydra in Rapier U-Pick game)
- I think overall he's been fair with how he's treated my slot and other slots
- he certainly isn't buddying me
- I do like most of his reads and the players he's trying to townbloc, don't disagree with most of his game state views

reasons I have reservations:
- he doesn't see me as town yet and further seems to be almost committed to not townreading me
- he quoted the Maf PT from my most recent scumgame when I think my play in that game should already stand out as different than my play here

I'm trying to remember though that my reservations are likely biased since I tend to think I'm obvious as town in contrast to my scumgame, despite me knowing this probably isn't true to other people

[GuiltyLion]

here I tried to fix up Auro's version a bit, not sure what you want done with those whiskers.

you guys are both heroes, thank you so much!!

[GuiltyLion]

i'm interested that the acryon wagon seems to have collapsed and reformed on allo. i don't have a read on allo himself but sudden general consensus there loosely points to town!allo too

this is bad VCA/wagonomics IMO

unless you wanna point to specific players that you think were the scum on both wagons, you can't really make a conclusion about Allo based off Acryon wagon, especially without flips from anybody yet. And if you're starting from "both wagons happened quickly and had similar players so it's likely scum were on them" then that's assuming from the get-go that the two wagoned players are town and will bias your reads from there

[GuiltyLion]

does someone have townreads on Limit that is for beyond reasons that they post walls just curious

I think the way Smart was treating me with suspicion but then Lilith comes in with this gut townread on me is hydra dissonance that a scum hydra is generally unlikely to fake

[GuiltyLion]

I think I disagree. That post in particular shows a nuanced thought over a player. If a scum isn't a stream-of-consciousness machine, they mostly produce content that is fairly one sided on people and tend to categorize as GOOD, BAD or WISHY-WASHY. Producing a post that goes like "I heavily disagree with what you say and here's why... but I think I townread you" takes either a townie mind, or a scum that understands how to properly replicate that kind of nuance, which is honestly hard as fuck.
If we're talking about suspect timing, I'd recommend checking the progression of Allo regarding Eve and Acryon. Suddenly understood eve was shitposting when I said it was shitposting, and suddenly produces a real vote and thought on a player when I accused him of not doing that, on a player everyone more or less suspected previously. That timing and progression is just really bad. I think that the wagon forming really fast is just due to conversational missteps from Allo rather than having scum support. That's my inner feeling on this one.

yeah this is extremely on point

I didn't say it but to +1 and summarize, the thing I disliked most from Allo was the late-ness to it's acryon vote. It was shading acryon but then only voted it once pressured by both Limit and nomnom. The unvote without going somewhere new, even when the juicy acryon wagon was right there, suggests to me Allo isn't interested in voting scumreads.

[GuiltyLion]

However, there does seem to be a difference in aggression between your push on Crayon (a "weird" slot) (and perhaps add Allomancer here too) and lack of it less weird ones. There's engagement, but more on the passive side.
Would that be something I find if I were to do a meta study on you?

I'm not sure I exactly follow what you're identifying as a difference between my scumgame and town game here, but I definitely encourage you to meta me, I think I'm already way more involved in this game than I ever was in that Newbie scumgame where I basically just sat back and let town rip itself up.

When are we gonna do a Calvin & Hobbes hydra?

I'm down! let's "take this offline", as they say

[GuiltyLion]

Skitter/GuiltyLion, are you both individually fine with being offwagon? I absolutely am.

Ideally I'd like the day to end with the person I most want lynched getting lynched

but if that can/will happen without me on the wagon, I'm fine volunteering to be off of it

[GuiltyLion]

@Allomancer When you come back, what are your thoughts on how your wagon has progressed and how people have reacted to it? Just about everyone, even those outside of it, have responded to it in some way.

I'm not really too concerned about it. I feel like every game I've played lately, whether I've been town or scum, has lead to an early day 1 wagon on me.

can you link me to a town game or two where you were a significant D1 wagon?

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion:
1. Why evade the part where I ask you about your lack of questioning Crayon for his "unexplained" keeping of vote?
2. Has anyone ever identified you as an easy read?
3. Do you not think the contexts between the Newbie game (easy to coast in) and here (hesitancy in awarding townreads, pressure towards your slot, lot of non-"newbie" players) are different enough that a comparison in involvement is worth basing a read off of?

1. Sorry, didn't mean to evade it, just missed it / thought it was rhetorical. I dunno, I feel I'm more likely to ask questions when I am unsure how I feel and looking for more info, whereas I gut felt Acryon's reply was scummy and didn't see a need to press further, I already knew how I felt about it. That's about the best I got for ya

2. I can't remember a time someone has explicitly said they can consistently/always read me well, but Lilith seems to have already picked up on me being town this game and that was after opening saying she was afraid she couldn't read me that well. Some players I've played multiple games with (the worst, URAP2, Irrelephant) seem to be able to feel when I'm genuinely engaged vs when I'm not, and it makes them scary for me to roll scum against.

3. I'm not trying to go further down a rabbithole of making a meta argument for myself as town based off of my most recent scumgame, I just brought it up since you tried to argue with Lilith's townread on me by using a post from the Maf PT and I think the game threads themselves should be far more indicative than one comment I made about how I try to play scum. ultimately I'm just trying to point out that I am much more naturally able to effort and engage here, as town, and I plan to continue to consistently demonstrate my different alignment between these two games. If you aren't going to be (or don't

want

to be) convinced that argument that's fine, ultimately it's your loss of a potential piece of evidence you could use to read me correctly .

[GuiltyLion]

1. Do you recall any previous instance of directly scumreading someone when there's -a lack of explanation- instead of asking for one?

3. It's a mindset thing. I disagree that you would play the coasting scumgame you did in that Newbie here for a variety of reasons, lol. Unless you're saying this level of involvement is outside your scum "range" entirely, this would be a fruitless comparison. plus, here I am engaging you myself. But fine: I'll hold off on my push, and see how your involvement shapes up.

It's obviously a cost benefit regarding the evidence. Here the difference in contexts muddles reliability, of course I'd expect scum!you here to behave much differently from there anyway.

honestly I don't wanna dig through old games and find something that feels like a convincing example, it's not easily searchable and I feel I can find some approximate examples that aren't going to be exactly the same and then we're both gonna just debate whether it's close enough to this instance for you to accept it as something I might do as town

wrt other two paragraphs, I think it's fair to expect me to play differently as scum across the two games given different PLs and whatnot, I'm just making a more simple point that I plan to

effort

here to a degree that it's usually really-hard-if-not-impossible for me to replicate as scum.

[GuiltyLion]

@Allomancer When you come back, what are your thoughts on how your wagon has progressed and how people have reacted to it? Just about everyone, even those outside of it, have responded to it in some way.

I'm not really too concerned about it. I feel like every game I've played lately, whether I've been town or scum, has lead to an early day 1 wagon on me.

can you link me to a town game or two where you were a significant D1 wagon?

viewtopic.php?p=10650012#p10650012

This is from a while ago, but I took about a year break from Mafia and just recently started playing again.

I was asking cause I thought it might be fruitful to compare your reactions to pressure across a few town games, but since this is an old game + this example looks like still a mostly RVS wagon not grounded in many heavy accusations, I'm not really getting anything useful out of this

[GuiltyLion]

I plan to effort here to a degree that it's usually really-hard-if-not-impossible for me to replicate as scum.

Do u think u have at this point?

honestly I think that I have, that was kinda how the whole discussion started, but I'm willing to acknowledge that to other players who don't know my alignment it may not be that easy to see

[GuiltyLion]

I typically don't care about meta much, but I'd have a hard time supporting a lynch with such little content (Sauce).

So I looked at some of his past games, and I have seen stretches of effort and insight, but I've also seen some stretches of non-content like he's done this game. If we didn't have other viable options, I would support a lynch there, but given that I think we do, we should maybe hold off for a little more. I'm not entirely convinced he isn't just being lazy (maybe uninterested if I've being charitable).

agree with this post (tho I'm just trusting acryon on the meta) and want to use it to state that acryon is now easily one of my strongest townreads

[GuiltyLion]

re:Auro - like I mentioned the other day, he's been kinda overfixated on me, and I'm also skeptical of how he seems totally uninterested in pressuring/voting Allomancer. I don't like his Eve push. I can imagine these behaviors serving a scum-agenda so he's not in my towncore, but it's also not really enough to make me want to push him and I do think he'd be a big asset if town and we're just on different wavelengths this game.

I think I'm like here overall, though I do wanna finish close-reading the last few pages:
definite town: {LDNE, acryon, nomnomnom}
prob-town: {Sausage, Eve}
meh: {Auro, BBmolla}
scum: {Allo}

[GuiltyLion]

lol I forgot skitter/karnage

Karnage in probtown, skitter in meh

[GuiltyLion]

Molla you said the Allo wagon looks pretty town but you don't see the reasons for it, why aren't you doing more to resolve those feelings there?

[GuiltyLion]

lol I don't know how anyone can read posts like 514 and think that limit hydra is scum

Allo/skit kinda feels like The Solve for me rn.

[GuiltyLion]

Hold up, how did you end up with townread on Sausasaurus?

- Smarter

he feels really earnest with the "let's not Lynch anyone yet guys" and "TLDNE misrepped me and is certain mafia" takes. There's no self-consciousness in his ISO at all. I don't agree with most if not all of what he's said but I do feel that he believes in it.

also @Molla the "extreme meh" is exactly why I'm feeling scum there. Bad responses to pressure, no demonstrated intent to solve, and I think if it was a mislynch scum would be hopping on that wagon by now

[GuiltyLion]

sorry you didn't say "extreme" and I added that myself, should not have been quoted like that, but point stands

[GuiltyLion]

I think if it was a mislynch scum would be hopping on that wagon by now

Not sure I'd recommend using this logic on D1 of a 9:2 game. (Or ever, really, but especially not now.)

-Smart

meh, myself and two of my strongest townreads are on the wagon. Eve was voting it and actually

unvoted

and still hasn't voted back despite being the main counter wagon. If scum benefit from this lynch I don't see it, IMO it is the best possible place for a vote right now.

[GuiltyLion]

"Let's not lynch anyone yet" seems like a very easily faked towntell. It felt like an easy way to make a noncontroversial statement by agreeing with the sentiment of the town, but also not take any responsibility for the wagon. And I view the second thing as scum trying to come up with an easy excuse to push somebody.

I'm townreading Sausausaurus less for the content of what they've said and more for the conviction he has while saying it.

[GuiltyLion]

I've skimmed your ISO and I don't find any reasons for Eve to be in your prob-town tier, can you explain that?
What about my Eve push don't you like?

I think the early traffic analyst claim/joke is more likely to come from town, yes I know we've since covered "Eve is bold as scum" but in my mind that's still more often town than not

Dismiss the Allo vote all you want but IMO identifying the same things I saw as potentially scum-indicative is a sign of town mindset

I also liked the push on you/BBMolla for focusing on clearing yourself/other slots more than potentially guilting a scum. I had actually thought about this myself when you were asking if I would be fine off-wagon - the best case scenario FMPOV is me on-wagon - but ultimately decided that negative repercussions of me insisting to be on wagon prob wouldn't really be a benefit to town and end of the day I care much more about agreeing with the lynch itself than deciding who is on/off

I dislike your push because I really don't see any scum agenda/motivation to Eve's play? And you haven't bothered to make a case for it either:

Simple reasoning for Eve vote: I can't sort her playstyle as I don't find it very transparent, and since I don't find her pro-town either, she's a perfectly good lynch.

I disagree that she's not not pro-town, I think she's made good votes/pushes, and especially stands in contrast to Allo who is not only not pro-town, but also actively scummy in a way I don't see at all from Eve.

Further, you've spent what feels like a loooottt of energy engaging with what you consider 'hard to read/sort' slots that could be useful as town, but then basically say you're fine with Eve being lynched since you think she isn't useful. It's like instead of solving the question of who is town and who is scum, you're more interested in solving the question of 'who can benefit town if town' vs who can't regardless of alignment, and I think that's a bad way to form reads and an easy way to lead to mislynches.

[GuiltyLion]

Auro what are your thoughts on skitter's reply to your defense of TLDNE and the general TLDNE vs skit situation on the last page? I think if you are town then skitter's scum equity goes wayyyy up and curious to see if you share my feelings there.

[GuiltyLion]

other random take, Molla's engagement with the Allo wagon doesn't feel like scum-scum. I think if Allo is scum then Molla is town, and vice versa.

[GuiltyLion]

sorry I just reread that post and realize it's kinda ambiguous - I don't mean to imply that if Allo is town than Molla is scum -> that may be possible but it also could be TvT. I only mean that a scumflip from one should clear the other.

[GuiltyLion]

bear with me as it's Saturday night and I'm a little inebriated/bleary so probably some grammar mistakes in advance but I wanna try to give you a response

The bolded red part makes a lot of sense if you only look at what I said about Skitter not being a D1 lynch, in isolation. But then you must have noticed I was throwing townreads and strengthening them on multiple slots, and actually stated that that was the strategy I was going for this game in 315 . So either now you have to argue that the top-down way of forming reads is a bad way to form reads especially in a setup where getting the right townbloc can screw scum over, or this attack is empty air.

I do think it's fair to point out that you are honing in on townreads and I have largely agreed with the townbloc you're forming which is why I can sometimes feel you may be town here. I think where I'm concerned is of the remaining pool outside the townbloc, we can't seem to see eye to eye on who is pro/anti town and who makes for a good wagon. I don't really grok at all why you don't see Allo as worthy of suspicion other than previous experience with his town meta, and I'm picking up townvibes from Eve that I'm confused you're not seeing.

I don't think I'm -as concerned- as you with certain reads or takes because I think 11-2 feels townsided here and naturally a couple of flips will help in sorting the hard-to-read slots, but I'm wary that you feel so insistent on pressuring me at every turn and I don't always understand how it's helping you potentially see me as town.

Again, makes a lot of sense if you look at Molla's 360 in isolation where he offers a reason for me being fine being in the cop bloc... and ignoring literally every other post in his ISO where he's scumhunting.
Prove it. Prove that Molla is excessively focusing on clearing himself.

I'm not saying Molla is excessively focused on clearing himself, I said rather that I liked Eve pressuring him on that particular line cause I thought it could be an odd take from town. I have liked some of Molla's other angles and while he's not clear town to me he's not also someone I'm itching to push at the moment. This feels like you're putting a stronger argument into my mouth that I never made, especially since I had just also stated that I don't think Allo/Molla as a team makes sense.

Dismiss the Allo vote all you want but IMO identifying the same things I saw as potentially scum-indicative is a sign of town mindset

Allo said that there existing a mech reason to be in the wagon alleviates some initial concerns he had from her, but she seems to be just shitposting, and he needs to see more content.
Eve's reasoning was that Allo should have "obviously" read her RVS post as a shitpost when he recognized that other posts of hers are shitposts, and thus shouldn't even have pushed her for it.
Your ISO does not show you finding this scum-indicative: so do you? You think it's a valid attack?
One instance of identifying something as scum-indicative in common with you is enough to get them into prob-town territory, is it?

I'm not really following your interpretation here. I thought Eve's reasoning was referring to only the particular claimpost, not the RVS post? Unless you are referring to that claimpost as the RVS post?

My general understanding of Eve's point was - and I'm definitely adding some of my own interpretation here - Allo acknowledges that she may have reason to want to be on wagons as town, but also acknowledges that she was shitposting, which means he shouldn't really read into it either way, whereas in reality he was actually trying to read into it both ways. I'm not seeing what you're seeing where it refers to a sum of multiple posts.

And yeah, I kinda have light standards for prob-town at this stage because it's D1 and because objectively the vast majority of players are town. I find I have best read results when I search for the lines of reasoning that stand out as evidently absent of most reasonable interpretations for towniness, and use those to influence the confidence in my scumreads, and try to give players the benefit of the doubt as much as possible.

If you could re-summarize the case on Allomancer, I would appreciate it. I think many of the things you find scummy in his posts are not ones I do; and I am in part vaguely informed by past experience with Allo.
Since you like having all evidence, I would suggest you read other towngames of his.
Overall, I am OK with whoever is lynched as long as the townbloc has consensus on it; but at this point I strongly advocate Eve to be in the cop-bloc if not the lynch.

Sure, my points on Allomancer:
- I really don't think it's made a lot of game advancing reads or pushes. The ISO gives me the impression of occasional commentary to blend in, rather than genuine beliefs it has that it wants to pursue.
- The strongest point for this is how he shaded acryon in 204 and unvoted in 205, but doesn't vote anywhere. Then it gets called out for being passive and not really engaging in tangible reads, and only then it votes in 215. That reads to me like appeasement and not like someone making a bonafide attempt to get more information from the game.
- Even now, sitting as a lead wagon with us inching ever closer to deadline, it's not really engaging with its wagon and is going so far to question votes on the counterwagon. I have no sense that I truly feel who Allomancer would like to flip by the end of today, and what it's doing to get there. It pushes back on my Sausaurus townread - why? Does it think Saus is scum? If so, why not actually

push/i] that?

If we flip Allo, I'm fine with Eve not being in the cop bloc, and if Allo flips town then clearly I am misreading parts of the gamestate and would be absolutely willing to re-evaluate or cop her. That's part of why she's prob-town: my most confident townreads I don't think would change in my eyes solely on an Allo townflip.

I think Skitter is town. However, not even close to how much I would have to promote her to the townbloc.
She agrees with you about Eve being mislynch bait. Do you not see town equity from that, as similar mindsets about things seems to be a strong +town indicator for you?
Skitter didn't respond to my case for 1/0. I see that as a sign of acceptance. What should I be reading into? If scum trying to legitimately push 1/0 she'd probably respond to that.
Her other attacks on Smart regarding his shading of my proposed strategy are legitimate, to my eyes.

Yeah I mean I can see that. I feel some mixed feelings about Skitter too. I don't think her attacks on Smart are legitimate - especially not if she has any history with Smart - and I feel the pushback on the way TLDNE looked at Saus is really opportunistic and not giving TLDNE any benefit of the doubt at all, esp given that Skit even mirrored some of those same thoughts previously.

[GuiltyLion]

sorry there are pronoun mistakes in many places in that post above, I apologize Allo, I should have proofread that more and I'll try to be a more careful in the future

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry, I'm also more tipsy than I thought and the Auro/GL back and forth is beyond my comprehension for tonight.

- Smarter

lol it's been a lot even for me haha

tbh I was tempted to whine a lil bit about continuing to litigate all these points but then I thought that'd be kinda unfair to a town!Auro and also exactly the opposite of me trying to effort as much as needed for y'all to townread me so I was able to suck it up and deal with it

I'll try to keep the crazy walls down tho

[GuiltyLion]

I didn't say this before but I do agree leashing the cop is bad. I'm fine with doing some negotiating of who is on or off a wagon but cop should always have flexibility to investigate whoever they want of the off-wagon pool

[GuiltyLion]

no worries it's mafia you do you, I can deal with being annoyed with questions I only care in the sense if it starts becoming unreadable for other players, but I can also take responsibility to try to end roads of discussion that don't feel productive

[GuiltyLion]

I guess I just don't understand why we need to have explicit confirmation of an innocent, at the expense of frustrating the cop from following their own reads, and creating a need for infinite arguments in thread about "what happens if [x] flips town, what happens if [x] flips scum" and the multitude of associative branches that people are going to want to push. Usually cops can just crumb their innos in a way that makes it obvious in hindsight who they investigated. It's not hard to drop a few subtle-in-the-moment-but-clear-with-knowledge-of-role hints over the course of the next day

[GuiltyLion]

also it doesn't come up often but I think the trail of investigations/crumbs from those investigations can be really beneficial in a CC situation where cops try to make arguments for why they investigated who, that can be very limiting to scum in some situations if they didn't plan well for it. Having a designated investigation removes that advantage and increases the risk of a gnarly CC scenario in LYLO. Which is why cop should out the day before then, for the record

[GuiltyLion]

If I was scum I wouldn't really be scared of Skitter/GL/Nomnomnom as much

i'm sorry WHAT did you just say

[GuiltyLion]

also, hi, let's talk about why you're scumreading me

Hi, who should I be scum reading instead? You're voting me instead of either Eve/Allo, do you think both are town? Who's my partner in your eyes rn?

also I see some other stuff I wanna respond to but I just skimmed and don't have energy right this second, I'll prob post a lot more in a bit

[GuiltyLion]

as for one reason why I'm scumreading you, it's pretty bad townplay to vanity vote me here instead of actually taking stances on either of the L-2 or L-3 wagons and I expect better from you for that. scum!skitter last time I played with her similarly ended the first day not being or discussing either of the major wagons of the day

[GuiltyLion]

also feels tmi-y to me

also explain this

is the TMI part that I think Eve is good odds of a mislynch? Or that I am talking to Auro as if I believe he's town? Why are either of those more likely to come from scum!me then town!me

[GuiltyLion]

lol I don't know how anyone can read posts like 514 and think that limit hydra is scum

Allo/skit kinda feels like The Solve for me rn.

uh no, it's disingenuous, ate-y, and acting like i'm incapable of changing my mind

I don't feel that Lilith is coming from a place of intentional misrepresentation though, I think she just doesn't understand the double standards that others perceive. Skitter, what do you feel about Lilith's continued engagement on this?

i think her engagement back on this is p decent, and the more i'm bickering with her about this, the more i'm feeling we're both very firmly entrenched in believing that 'our side is right' and I've been sniping back because i feel like she isn't really understanding my pov, so i feel like i need to keep repeating myself to get my point across

and i think she's doing the same thing to me, and that she's annoyed with me for the same reasons, and so i'm not entirely sure i can fault her for that

i am willing to acknowledge that she may have misunderstood rex's initial post about eve, and the more i'm bickering about this the more i'm kinda feeling like she sincerely believes what she's arguing

sooooo... you agree with me TLDNE hydra is town here, yes?

[GuiltyLion]

[GuiltyLion]

already have more posts in this game than in my recent Newbie scum game now btw, which was twice as long

you're so willing to townbin Allo for playing similar to town games, yet can't seem to give me any credit whatsoever when this should really obviously stand apart from my most recent scumgames

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like you're getting a bit townier, but I still scumread you

like WHO ACTUALLY SAYS THIS about SOMEONE THEY'RE VOTING

like sure yes I do owe it to you to go try to read some town!Allo games

but like

come

on

[GuiltyLion]

We agree 1/0 is town. Anyone who attacks that slot at this point is going to get flak from me, it's not a pro-town move at all and just reads like trying to open up a future lynchpool. And then skitter winds up... townreading 1/0 anyway. Either she's not thinking at all and just messily posting lazy takes or she's scum.

[GuiltyLion]

Agreeing with the conclusion doesn't mean you can't attack the process

honestly I think that I have, that was kinda how the whole discussion started, but I'm willing to acknowledge that to other players who don't know my alignment it may not be that easy to see

i guess ultimately what i'm getting back to is it seems unreasonable to me that you were dinging auro townpoints because he didn't see the difference between your town and scumgames

also on this,

like, sure, I probably am being unreasonable about it. I tend to overreact to people who I expect to townread me not townreading me

but
why do you think I'm scum for that? Isn't this like extremely plausible to come from a town!GL

thinking on it I've noticed this pattern from you before, you seem reactive to ways I try to pull towncred as town and then decide I'm scum because you don't like it, rather than like actually considering whether there's town motivation in doing what I do

if you're town here I realllyyyy need you to engage more with Eve/Allo slots and give me stuff to work with on those fronts

[GuiltyLion]

whoops, was gonna respond to that Auro post but had decided against it, basically like I kinda disagree but I was able to see where you're coming from, but usually I'm more interested in outcomes and generating info rather than like petty squabbling with people who mutually share your scumreads

[GuiltyLion]

Auro that... seems like a rather disingenuous example? In that game, you were accusing Allo for

not

voting Creature and vote hopping around elsewhere. Allo doesn't ever wind up voting Creature, who Allo was waffling on. That's kinda the opposite of the charge here - Allo RVS voted, then unvoted and didn't vote again until pressured to do so. And then keeps its vote on acryon despite saying acryon is appearing townier. That stands in sharp contrast to the ISO in that game you linked, where Allo wagon hops several times as reads fluctuate. Vote hopping is generally fine with me. Having to be nagged to vote, and then saying you're re-evaluating someone that you're still voting when you're the only person voting them, is not.

[GuiltyLion]

GuiltyLion, you should engage with Karmage about Allo/Eve too.

I agree with this, Karnage is falling off in my reads. But Eve had already beat me to that

[GuiltyLion]

Besides, do answer: what is odd in Molla's take that I am fine being copped because I can become confirmed town?

this feels like something you want me to answer more than much of the other giant wall stuff, so focusing on this for now:

let's wind back a bit:

Oh, and: Crayon, suppose I am scum, with the devious plan of forming a "townbloc" that lets me slip by.
I have never advocated for being on it myself, for starters. So, at the very least, I must be shoving my buddy in there (otherwise there's a 2/5 chance of a guilty which is just bad strategy).

Do you think I would be expecting town points from you, Skitter, Nomnomnom and GuiltyLion by saying "Sure yeah I can stay off wagon"? Do you think I think that has any payoff for me?

Hell, actually, good thought.

Skitter/GuiltyLion, are you both individually fine with being offwagon? I absolutely am.

Here's where you were saying you're fine being off wagon, and asking Skit/myself whether we'd be okay with that as well. When you asked me that, my thought process was roughly as follows:
1) ultimately I am okay with being in an investigative pool because I'm town
2) However, that's not strictly ideal because if hypothetically I were to be copped it's a waste of a cop shot compared to a world where everyone universally townread me and we used said shot on another slot that would both help me form more accurate reads and actually have a chance at getting a guilty
3) If I demand to be on-wagon because of point 2), it's probably going to just lead to more people scumreading me (also not ideal), is going to make Auro and anyone else who currently suspects me less likely to want to lynch who I want to lynch, and frankly I just don't wanna deal with that potential shitstorm, I think we can win this off of good day play even if a cop shot is hypothetically 'wasted' on me D1

So like, I'm fine with Eve asking this question:

Auro why are you volunteering to be off the wagon when you know you're town?

because I imagine she's operating from many of the same thoughts as I had in point 2), and pushing you on that front. I don't see this as a scummy question.

To which Molla immediately jumps in:

Auro why are you volunteering to be off the wagon when you know you're town?

He could then be confirmed town by the Traffic Analyst

?

which feels like he's kinda
a) not really engaging with any of the thought processes in my point 2, very surface level answer to this question
and
b) answering a question directed at somebody at somebody else, which is always a no-no and a technique scum sometimes employ to have easy avenues to engage with the thread and also earn towncred by buddying townies by defending them.

so Eve then voting him after that also makes sense to me, completely. I don't see a reason to favor a scum!Eve explanation for her question and subsequent vote there when it's so readily available to me to imagine a town one.

[GuiltyLion]

as for one reason why I'm scumreading you, it's pretty bad townplay to vanity vote me here instead of actually taking stances on either of the L-2 or L-3 wagons and I expect better from you for that. scum!skitter last time I played with her similarly ended the first day not being or discussing either of the major wagons of the day

I've given stances on both of them, thank you
also which game was that?

viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81510

you gave a stance on Eve previously but you really hadn't said anything of substance about Allo in a long time, you were suspicion of him but then reversed that read to 'maybe he's town' because I voted him. which I called out as bad logic and you never really followed up with any further Allo updates since then. Not entirely your fault, Allo hasn't

done anything

since then

[GuiltyLion]

auro's pretty townread right now but you keep pulling up this notion of being paranoid of him and/or expecting him to read you better when you've kinda acknowledged . you have these unreasonable expectations of how he ought to be reading you and when he doesn't live up to them, you say you can't townread him. it feels like a way for you to keep him at arm's length and allowing you to not townread him.
idk why this is more likely to come from town!you than scum!you

i was actually going to call you out on complaining about my eve read when it's kinda similar to your own but i just went through my own iso and i don't see the post i thought i wrote so maybe it never made it into the thread
but basically, i think that she's scummy on the face of it but there's a few things that point to town, so i'm not particularly interested there right now:
1. her opener wrt the traffic analyst probably just doesn't come from scum, i don't think scum are that brazen usually
2. calling out auro for him being willing to be off-wagon when from his pov he knows he's town
3. and just her whole shtick i have a hard time seeing scum play that way the whole game

i'm still kinda trying to work on getting a definitive read on allo but he's ignored my last few posts

I will say

this post is the first post that kinda rings town!Skitter for me

as for the first point regarding Auro - yeah, it's hard for me to fully townread people when they spend most of the game discrediting/ignoring my scumreads and saying I'm scum! that's normal, is it not? Especially when I do try to engage with that player in good faith and answer as many questions they ask of me as much as I reasonably can and it never seems to make any headway with them.

as for why I am kinda thinking it's town - I'm not sure if scum!Skitter says she was going to call me out for ignoring an explanation but then realizes she didn't actually ever post it, that's a bit hard for scum to think of or naturally fake. I think scum would kinda just acknowledge that they hadn't posted it yet, not make up an extra lie about originally going to call me out

[GuiltyLion]

again, I am not trying to say MOLLA IS SCUM FOR THIS, I am trying to explain to you why I feel town vibes from Eve

there's more to respond to Skitter but this is all I got for now, it's midnight

[GuiltyLion]

and it literally is a defense of you, for whatever reason Eve wanted YOU to answer that question. Not Molla

[GuiltyLion]

I'd recommend checking the progression of Allo regarding Eve and Acryon. Suddenly understood eve was shitposting when I said it was shitposting, and suddenly produces a real vote and thought on a player when I accused him of not doing that, on a player everyone more or less suspected previously. That timing and progression is just really bad. I think that the wagon forming really fast is just due to conversational missteps from Allo rather than having scum support. That's my inner feeling on this one.

yah I feel like we really haven't advanced at all past this point in the past 500 posts. more responses coming - I still owe a couple to skitter and I have another tack I want to try to reach out to Auro - in a bit

[GuiltyLion]

do we want to discuss Wagon Decisions? as I've said before, I'm fine with being off wagon if we wanna put like Saus on there instead of me

UNVOTE:

p-edit: damn beat me to it

[GuiltyLion]

I think if Allo scum flips it would be most helpful to get a cop in Skit/Karnage

If Allo townflips prob best to look in Auro/Molla/Eve, and I guuuuEESSSS ( ) myself in that case.

I haven't been thinking too much about this but I guess we should optimize the cop pool for the townflip scenario as that's more likely from a pure probability standpoint and a worse outcome for town.

to answer your question directly, if Allo flips town then I'm definitely going to have to reconsider Eve being the main counter wagon. However I'd suspect there'd be scum kinda tiptoeing around the mislynch and avoiding it because I don't see scum in the early voters of TLDNE & nom, so I'd be suspicious on those grounds of you (Auro) and Molla in that instance.

[GuiltyLion]

I have another tack I want to try to reach out to Auro - in a bit

Heyo, just lynch scumz and I will be happy!

this is actually kinda where I was gonna go with it

I think the reason I've been getting frustrated (slash occasionally feeling an agenda to your posts) is because you keep saying you don't really care about who is lynched between Eve/Allo, but then engaging me constantly on these fronts of why I suspect Allo and why I don't really suspect Eve, yet it feels moreso to make me litigate every subpoint for why I feel Eve town and why I feel scum Allo instead of it ever seeming to develop your own thoughts on either slot or lead to you pushing the game one way or the other. At a certain point reads right now are all ultimately hunch and guesswork, it's D1, Allo barely gives any content to engage with, and I think a flip will be infinitely more helpful and game-advancing than continuing to try to dive down into the rabbit hole cross-examination of "I feel this because this reason, which I feel because of this further reason, which I feel because of this further further reason".

Every time I try to explain it feels like it just leads to more questions and disagreement from you and I've stopped feeling like it might get you to understand my PoV. It's fine generally aiming to use this topic to sort me, that makes sense and is the main line of the game right now, but you don't seem to be attempting to meet me at all where I'm coming from with a decently strong scumread on Allo and lack of interest in voting/pushing Eve pretty directly as a result, and IMO it does feel more and more like an exercise in pedantry and walls that may entirely all be worthless if and when Allo flips scum.

With the Molla thing as an example - I'm not really scumreading Molla because of that one post, but it feels like you're trying to pigeonhole me into saying that! It just struck me as kinda odd, potentially scummy, and when Eve voted him I could see that making sense from town. By no means was that meant to be a Rigorous Proof of Molla is Scum and Eve is Town for Voting There, it was just my impression/vibes from reading the interaction. Skitter just recently echoed the exact same sentiment, but you're not also drilling her to explain it.

At the end of the day, yeah Molla might be town who was just trying to summarize previously why you said you were fine being off wagon. He might also be scum trying to make Eve look worse and buddy you. I don't know! I slightly felt the latter explanation and vibed with Eve voting there at the time, that's all there is to it. I really can't justify it much beyond that.

[GuiltyLion]

I think if Allo scum flips it would be most helpful to get a cop in Skit/Karnage

We don't get any cop shots after a scumflip.

-Smart

yes we do? We don't get a hood created, but we do still get a cop shot

[GuiltyLion]

though you're right in the grand scheme, that means optimizing the wagon on the basis of a scumflip is pointless, so may as well make the people off wagon the people we want to cop if it's a townflip

[GuiltyLion]

yes we do? We don't get a hood created, but we do still get a cop shot

We get a traffic analyst shot, which determines if the target can communicate privately with any other living player. Since the sole remaining scum cannot communicate privately with any living player, they can't be found by that shot.

-Smart

ah, didn't catch this, my bad

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see a reason why my not-really-caring about that means I shouldn't question you.

You should treat them as independent things. If you're scum, a reliable way of "catching" you will be my critique about your logical analyses, therefore I pick them apart. If you're town, seeing where you come from would make me feel better.

it's not that you shouldn't question me, it's just that I'm feeling less and less good about this questioning me actually seeming to ever possibly help you feel better. every time I state anything I feel I'm being subsequently put to task to justify it, and it feels like I'm getting a disproportionate amount of this "picking apart" compared to every other player who you should also being trying to sort, like you don't seem to ever want to pick apart things I want to pick apart.

I also think "logical analysis" only works up to a point, I don't think of mafia as centrally a game about town being logical and scum being illogical, more so a game of town being genuine and scum being disingenuine. Sometimes I just genuinely feel things a certain way even when I recognize logically it totally could be the other way. I'm getting annoyed you can't seem to pick up on my genuinely believing the points that I'm making, and are attacking them more with a lens on finding things to logically nitpick over

[GuiltyLion]

like half the time I can see myself agreeing with you, okay this point isn't as ironclad as I want it to be, but then what then? End of the day I still in my gut want to lynch Allo over Eve here and you're not picking up the task yourself to change my mind. You're ripping on reasons to townread Eve, but not filling that void with reasons to scumread her.

[GuiltyLion]

yah it's kinda tilting that Allo comes in here clearly still reading and drops that one post with nothing else, that's not really pro-scum as much as it's just decidedly anti-town

if Allo is scum and doesn't really know how to play it and resigned to just getting lynched, and most of the game is just town!Auro/Skit/TLDNE/GL all arguing with each other, then we're in good shape. if Allo is town and not giving any sort of a fuck about trying to win, and there's a power scum in that group of four I mentioned, then this is shaping up to be an ugly and difficult game

@Karnage I noticed rereading your ISO you said Allo doesn't scream scum and there's a better lynch out there, but now you're fine with the Allo lynch. Do you think anybody screams scum right now? You've taken a pretty significant backseat since early game.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think that I will need to.

this better not be what I think it is

[GuiltyLion]

like what do you think scum!him is trying to do with all of this discourse / back-and-forth dialogue that's been flooding the thread if he isn't even going to to push you; like if he's scum and is trying to manufacture a push on town!you he has ample room to go there already but just like ... isn't committing to that, so what is he trying to accomplish here as scum anyways?

Yah this is a good question, I was wary that he was setting up to mislynch me later but the longer and longer this goes on the less likely that seems since he doesn't

have

to effort this much to do it

also this is a bad reason to give me townpoints, i'm entirely capable of faking this

it's only a bad reason if you wind up being scum

it's less that you're capable and more that I think it's less likely that you would

[GuiltyLion]

~75%

[GuiltyLion]

Also need to check if GL complaining when getting pushed is a tell either way.

~ self metaaaa ~ but it's a town tell and I actually need to start faking this more as scum

I'm very fussy about votes and scumreads on me as town

[GuiltyLion]

skitter do you not find it odd at all that you seem to agree on the vast majority of reads with me? like I don't actually think we view many things differently this game when it comes to most slots. you've had issues with TLDNE and I've had issues with Auro but other than that I feel like we're viewing much of the game the same way except you're also scumreading me

[GuiltyLion]

Do you guys want me to vote or should I stay off-wagon?

what do you think Saus

[GuiltyLion]

I'm getting cold feet too

I'm also kinda wondering whether I've let nomnomnom skate by without enough scrutiny

UNVOTE:

I am going to reread and do more in a few hours but I'm not liking the trio of Molla/Karnage/nom right now

[GuiltyLion]

Lol I forgot I wasn't voting there but

I think I'd rather lynch Molla if I have enough sway for that. He's been passive, especially with respect to who is lynched today. There's something I saw in Allo's posts that make his weirdness around Eve make a lot more sense

[GuiltyLion]

I guess if we're not going to do allo then Eve is not the worst compromise but I still think she's town and would rather not lynch there. I think most of this day has been town arguing with eachother about two town slots and scum sitting back and not doing much

[GuiltyLion]

I don't know we honestly could do either in my head, these slots will cause problems for a long time.

This post is feeling off to me, because at first I sorta agreed with it and felt I understood the PoV, but the more I think about it the more I think it kinda just presumes both slots are town

P-edit: Molla, Karnage

[GuiltyLion]

i don't get your reasoning there Auro - maybe i'm not on your realm of thinking but could you dumb it down for me with more "no u"s?

nomnom is a strange player who might be a scum person in this game of mafia

Also worth highlighting that Eve was picking up on potential scum nom early and that has also made me revisit it, more townpoints for Eve here

[GuiltyLion]

Actually there was that one earnest moment where I felt Molla eas genuinely trying to resolve the Allo wagon and not just grandstanding

Maybe Karnage would be a better lynch. The progression of null->town->null of his Allo read feels disingenuous

[GuiltyLion]

re: allo

calling him town was inaccurate. my 453 better reflects my view

looked back through allo's ISO and while it doesn't scream town it doesn't scream scum either. There's a better lynch out there I think

apologies. i'll be back later to get caught up.

allo is likely town imo

looked back through allo's ISO and while it doesn't scream town it doesn't scream scum either. There's a better lynch out there I think

Acryon how do you feel about this though, do you see Town going through this sequence? Have you played with town!Karnage before?

[GuiltyLion]

It's in reverse order there because I went back to quotepost but you get the idea

[GuiltyLion]

Did a quick ISO skim, his posts seem reasonably dynamic. They don't really look that agenda driven.

gonna put on my Auro cap here and ask you to elaborate which sequences of posts were dynamic in a way that scum couldn't fake. I agree he doesn't seem to have much of an agenda, but my point is if Allo and Eve are both town then he hasn't

needed

to have an agenda

[GuiltyLion]

Unfortunately I've never played with any of these people I don't think. But I actually would expect scum to come up with a better reason for a seemingly contradictory read. That does actually feel like a town response to me, because I know my feelings on slots flip-flop throughout the game.

I can understand where you're coming from with this but I think I just disagree. I can imagine scum!Karnage wanting to position himself to look good on a town!Allo wagon and let townies get their slots dirty, but then realizing he went artificially too far in the townread direction and having to walk it back

the way I can see it coming from town is if he meant "likely town" as in "8/10 odds of town solely because that's the a priori probability" but it's still also worrying to me that he said there's a better lynch out there and then basically has done nothing to find or push it.

[GuiltyLion]

idk the more I think about it the harder and harder it is for me to imagine genuinely believing a slot is not strongly town/scum, then graduating it to "likely town" but not explaining why, then saying the original read was more accurate.

It'd be a more plausible progression if he had given reasons for leaning more into a townread and/or then reasons for changing his mind, but absent of those it's really hard for me to grok where the "likely" town came from if he was so willing to then later say he didn't actually think Allo was "likely" town.

@Molla I was wavering on you but now I'm really talking myself into this Karnage/nom theory. their early game interactions fit S-S too

[GuiltyLion]

GL I’m here trying to solve this game, why do you believe I’m more likely scum than a player who is decidedly lurking

if this is referring to Allo here, I really just have one specific reason to townread Allo rn regarding his latest few posts. if that reason is wrong then I'm all aboard the Allo wagon again but I'm starting to think I had kind of an axiomatically wrong scumread and it was borking my view of how a lot of this day played out

[GuiltyLion]

Can I put on my Auro cap and ask you not to put words in my mouth?

I never said that scum couldn't fake it; in fact, I think I pretty conclusively suggested the opposite by saying that this wasn't even strong enough to be a townlean.

sorry I guess I just misunderstood what "> rand town" means if not a townlean... since 80% random odds any given slot is town this game from town!PoV.

68, 168, 169, 201, 298, 305, 453, 457, 461 are some ones that stand out as not really pushing a specific agenda.

-Smart

thanks I appreciate you compiling these. This is how I would imagine these might benefit a scum!Karnage:

68 - potentially distancing with scum!nom
168, 201 - these are just fluffy mechanics comments, that's freebie posting as scum. I agree with you there's no agenda but I don't think most scum!players are robots who only crank out wincon-advancing posts, there's an important aspect of just participating in conversation and sounding like you're involved/engaged.
298 - walk back early distancing with nom to disengage from pushing there, shade on skitter
305 - fake scumhunt against acryon
453 - fluffpost on town!Allo to participate but not actually get hands dirty
457 - actually somewhat interesting point here, but it's kinda just mechanics nitpicking if he never evolves it into either an Auro or Skitter scumread
461 - wait I don't wanna attract skitter's attention by pushing her for lynch

169 stands out as the most potentially town post there, because the more early game town reads you throw out as scum the harder it is to map a plausible trajectory later. but even that is kinda invalidated by his 305? Which he walks back again in 306? The whole sequence of posts in his ISO from 298-326 is a lot of posts/commentary but no actual scumhunting intent other than ostensibly 305 and 318

[GuiltyLion]

People were townreading noms? What for?

-Smart

I gave them a loooottt of credit for seeing Eve/Allo the same way I did, and having a nuanced reason to see me as town in 291, but I'm starting to think I was suckered

[GuiltyLion]

nom you can't just drop that vote and peace out lol

[GuiltyLion]

also I am voting Karnage in spirit but I imagine I still haven't earned wagon privileges yet

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmmmmm slip?????

[GuiltyLion]

But that's not. The last "null" read was me saying I'd lynch allo over eve, not a change in my read

but if Allo was likely town per your 575 then why would you lynch Allo at all?!

what I'm not understanding is how Allo graduated from "doesn't scream town but doesn't scream scum" to "likely town" but then reverted back to "doesn't scream town but doesn't scream scum". The evolution from null->town between 453 and 575 doesn't feel genuine as a result, especially since you're not really pushing any stronger scumreads

[GuiltyLion]

i'm kinda most skeptical of where she accused me of slipping because i really don't think there's any universe where she actually believes that

I agree with this, the slip accusation was really lazy/bad. So bad that I actually do kinda find myself questioning whether scum!nom would even post that, but in any case I really don't believe that she felt any conviction towards it being a real scum slip and that's absolutely worth pushing on.

i'm kinda most skeptical of where she accused me of slipping because i really don't think there's any universe where she actually believes that

I read it as being a joke

this is possibly worse still though, how could you see it as a joke? Like best case "totally checked out and disengaged town taking a potshot" maybe, but there's no 'joke' there?

I'm trying not to confbias myself in my Karnage/nom tunnel but
a) all these Karnage defenses of nom and
b) nom reverting from the really thoughtful/observant player of earlier this game

just seem to fit it so well from my POV? why are we entertaining the idea of lynching Allo/Eve at this point still? I'm fine with Allo in the copbloc, I don't feel Skit really needs to be in there anymore.

I think my dream rn is a Karnage lynch with nom/Allo/Molla/Saus off wagon, tho most importantly nom/Allo, happy to defer the Molla/Saus/other slots to whoever other people want to put there.

[GuiltyLion]

GL, what are your thoughts on Sausasaurus Rex right now? Still townreading him from tone?

It feels like everyone basically gave him a pass even though he's produced less content than Eve/Allo/molla

- Smarter

yeah I'm not happy with the lack of content from Saus and I'd say he's a potential candidate for a scum!nom partner in a town!Karnage world. I still don't feel he's been really disingenuous while posting but like I said wrt Karnage as well, if Allo/Eve are both town then scum hasn't needed to push an agenda here and Saus fits that pattern as well

[GuiltyLion]

Isn't Allo better on-wagon?

actually yeah I think my reasoning for wanting Allo off-wagon was wrong and doesn't need to be resolved via TA check. You right

[GuiltyLion]

Hi GL, what's your current read on acryon? I don't think you've mentioned him since 509. Is he still your strongest townread, and can you share your thoughts on his recent posts?

- Smarter

I dunno about 'strongest' towered but I do TR him still and am fine with him being on any wagon. I think the re-evaluation on Allo was much like my own, and the evolving suspicion towards Karnage/nom felt pretty organic too. I realize in writing this out that I'm again giving town credit for mirroring my own reads, but absent any flips so far I don't really have a strong reason to re-evaluate on him in particular.

One thing I don't like (since your post here) is the default back to lynching Allo again - the reasons I have for not wanting to lynch Allo make him a really bad choice of wagon/lynch at deadline here. I thought acryon shared those reasons but now I'm guessing not...

[GuiltyLion]

I'd rather be honest and say that I have trouble reading most of the game rather than pretending to do and prodging and shit.
Just blergh skitter is voting me for a garbage reason kinda makes me want to vote there too now, couldn't we just have voted allo and went to day 2.

nom, can you clarify whether you legitimately thought that was a slip or were just joking?

- Smarter

It could be a legit slip that's why I pointed out.
I'm not 100% entertaining it as a legit slip, just pointing that out right now because slips become apparent in late game.

I feel like whenever I see this type of post it's from scum

a slip such as assuming slots are 'townposting' bc you know they are town either is or isn't a slip, it's not something that 'becomes more apparent' in late game. It's very easy for me to see this as scum dodging taking responsibility for a full accusation yet wanting to keep a lil seed planted to vote/push skitter later.

if you're not willing to call it a slip right now then it's not something you can justifiably later call a slip, IMO. You're saying you can imagine it coming from town!skitter, therefore it's not a slip.

[GuiltyLion]

All of this is happening because I ain't 100% sure about Allo anymore and I was sure about him, and I'm having second doubts and I just can't see the fucking scum in this game.
It must be in skitt/eve/molla honestly, I just don't see it anywhere... I can't just see who the hell is scum here according to this gamestate.

K A R N A G E

I don't know why you TR him in the face of Skit/I bringing up good points against him?? His 'early posts' were so good you can't possibly imagine them being scum?

[GuiltyLion]

y'all please read this progression and see what I see: nom is throwing up a lot of AtE about "I'm frustrated with the game state, I don't know who is scum, just flip anybody", but never actually seriously entertains the idea of Karnage scum, and is willing to throw shade in a bunch of other places that feel viable (Allo/Eve/skit/Molla) while repeatedly refusing to re-evaluate Karnage.

If she were seriously and genuinely so confused/frustrated with the game state, why would she not be looking in Karnage here?

Spoiler: nom's bizarre 'I'm so lost but I know I don't want Karnage' progressions, with Skit posts in between for reference

I don't know I'm lost with this game and all these wallposts make me skip significant discussion
Karnage is like obvtown right? What made you doubt about him?

-asks about Karnage

He's been dipping in and out of thread for the last several days wothout really doing anything anf giving vague 'i looked at his iso and i dont see why he's scum type reads'
Like he had a few takes in the beginning of the game that i kinda liked but those sorts of takes kinda disappeared

-gets a good reply from Skitter about why Karnage might be scum

I don't know I'm lost with this game and all these wallposts make me skip significant discussion
Karnage is like obvtown right? What made you doubt about him?

Are you skipping everything, or just the walls? I think the number of walls is much smaller than you make it out to be.

honestly I'm kinda skipping everything at this point and I just want a flip all this stuff is meaningless to me.
Just make someone flip I'm sick of this.

-"Just flip anybody, I'm sick of this!". Why not... Karnage?

What prevents you from saying "I'm sick of this, just get me one more flip" after D1, D2, D3...?

We get a flip and the gamestate advances.
Right now it feels stagnant and I hate these phases where it feels like I'm reading pages and pages, I retain nothing out of it that was useful in terms of sorting and so on and so forth.
It often happens in larges and sometimes I just replace out if that type of gamestate is sustained, like in undertale.

-more AtE, game is stagnant, etc. Could easily re-evaluate on Karnage here, but doesn't

Eh, fuck it. The fact that skitt actually voted me after stating that karnage is scum and dropping that read really fast is a really big red flag and I am not taking chances.
VOTE: Skitter
bbmolla feels a bit sketch too, I don't know where this day is going and honestly I'm having no fucking clue right now.

-Starts a 1v1 with Skit instead? And shades Molla?

ok
we don't have to make a whole thing but i also don't think i'm going to be unvoting you really

What about Karnage?

-Still aware that Skitter is scum reading Karnage and the thrust of her push on Skitter seems to be 'it's bad that you're voting me when you scumread Karnage', which doesn't feel like a genuine belief to me if she was really THAT lost about the gamestate earlier and actually interested in Skitter's answer to 860

he's not doing looking that great either rn

See the thing is, this kind of post just makes me feel ill at ease.
I just can't find a way to trust you sometimes it's kind of crazy, but maybe you're just scum.
How do you feel about Eve joining my wagon?

-can't trust Skitter because Skitter scumreads Karnage?? Why is Karnage this level of a townread for nom compared to all other slots in the game?

I am paranoid of you should be the root of all of it.
I don't wanna go Karnage... what's your read on bbmolla?

-If not skitter, maybe Molla - still no interest in Karnage

Like I don't know actually the thing is that according to that gamestate Karnage could perfectly be lurker scum buuuuuuuuuut his early posts were just good?
I don't feel confident enough. I would hate lynching a slot I thoguht was conftown before, and it turns out they are town. That's like worst case scenario for me.
pedit: I am confused about where to vote is that really hard to grasp as a town thought?
ppedit: Qualifying something as a "townpost" *could* be a slip from a scum player pointing at other people that's what I was saying.
I could go on bbmolla at this stage of the game

- what early posts of Karnage were

this

town for you if you're so lost about the gamestate?

[GuiltyLion]

Do you not think Karnage's willingness to be in the cop bloc is not town indicative?

Do you not think Karnage's willingness to be in the cop bloc is not town indicative?

no? pretty much all scum have to say that, it's nai

yeah I agree with Skitter on this

like the only other main option would be to insist on being on-wagon, and I can imagine that being too scary for scum to try. And it's not like Karnage up to this point has been especially likely to be copped when other slots were considered more suspicious for most of the day.

plus I think almost everyone here has volunteered to be off wagon at one point or another?

[GuiltyLion]

GL are you strongly townreading Skitter then?

yeah frankly I just needed to get over being insulted by her scumreading me and I see her as strong town now

[GuiltyLion]

sarcasm can be a joke.

this still doesn't make sense also lmao

Skitter says people are 'townposting' instead of 'wallposting' and nom says "hmmm did you just SLIP?"

let's say this was sarcasm and a joke. that means nom is still town reading skitter, by definition. Let's set aside that nom's subsequent posting makes it abundantly clear that this wasn't actually the case.

now forgive me for being a joke-killer by needed it explained, but what exactly is supposed to be funny here? Like, what humor is there in suggesting someone might be scum when you don't actually think they are, when the game we're playing is precisely about figuring out who is being genuine in accusing people of being scum vs who is lying? The only only way there could be a joke there is if it's like an in-joke or reference to some similar accusation that skitter made before in their history together, but like, ... that just doesn't apply here.

Please explain to me what the joke

is

and why it is funny in this situation, because I don't get it!

[GuiltyLion]

{Acryon, 1/0, BBMolla, Rex, GuiltyLion, Eve} ideally.

{Nom, Allomancer, Skitter30, Auro, Karnage} -> Probably Karnage can hammer if Eve refuses to self?

I would agree to this plan only if it's understood that TA heavily weights towards investigating nom or Karnage. I suspect Eve flips town here and think it'd be way better to just Lynch in nom/Karnage but I think that hood would be probably all town and would at least put us in a good spot for D2. If anything I swap Auro for Rex

[GuiltyLion]

Auro and Skit for Molla/Rex, actually, would be even better

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: nom

[GuiltyLion]

can you explain why you'd rather reverse on your lynchbait townread of Eve instead of considering at all the possibility that Karnage might be scum here? What do you think of him defending you by saying you were joking when you accused skit of slipping?

[GuiltyLion]

and you think Eve is?

[GuiltyLion]

Possibly yes, at least eve!scum makes more sense than karnage!scum.

in one corner, we have Eve:
- pushed by many slots all day
- claimed TA and shitposts a lot
- in your own words, mislynch bait

and in another, we have Karnage:
- makes an effort to sound town in early game
- repeatedly "needs to catch up" in mid game, doesn't push any real scumreads or make an effort to advance game
- says Allo is null, then says Allo is likely town, then is fine with lynching Allo
- rushed to your defense when you awkwardly/questionably accused skitter of slipping, saying it was a joke longer than even you did (if you are legit town, this is good chance of WKing IMO)

not seeing why you think former is higher odds of scum than the latter

[GuiltyLion]

With that said it's funny that people are THIS scared of my scumgame that they're ready to reference everything I said in scum PTs in the past
However you guys fail to realize that I'm just town with an agenda of trying to advance my own reads, really.

Eh maybe it's lazy.
Maybe that's what it is.
I'm lazy and I hate going in circles, I just want a lynch.

These kind of contradict each other?

- Smarter

I don't think I've said it eloquently yet but this is getting at one of the same fundamental issues I have with nom (and why I decided to go with her instead of Karnage for right now) - she's trying to say she's both totally apathetic/lazy about this game state but also seems completely incapable of reassessing on whether she's reading Karnage wrong. There's a very clear agenda to her late D1 posting to not lynch Karnage and to lynch Anyone Else Viable But Karnage

[GuiltyLion]

nom why is Karnage town?!?

I don't really care about compromising on Eve I care about Karnage being scummy scum scum and you starting stupid 1v1s with Skitter and deciding Eve is the best lynch and similar shit instead of joining me on Karnage

[GuiltyLion]

you can't throw up all this AtE when you refuse to engage at all about Karnage and just say "he's obvtown cause early game"

like THAT is trash mafia play not pushing you for obstinately sticking to a really stale and unjustifiable townread

[GuiltyLion]

also can't help this lol

MAFIA IS NOT A LOGIC GAME

I also think "logical analysis" only works up to a point, I don't think of mafia as centrally a game about town being logical and scum being illogical, more so a game of town being genuine and scum being disingenuine. Sometimes I just genuinely feel things a certain way even when I recognize logically it totally could be the other way. I'm getting annoyed you can't seem to pick up on my genuinely believing the points that I'm making, and are attacking them more with a lens on finding things to logically nitpick over

[GuiltyLion]

Lynch Karnage and cop nom

I'll be flabbergasted if there's not scum in either of those two slots

[GuiltyLion]

do whatever the fuck you want but please wagon eve the fuck out of this game tomorrow because she's just playing like in skyrim and she's not fucking saying anything right now because the gamestate is diverting away from her AND THAT IS WHAT SCUMS DO

nom do you believe scum!Eve unvoted you here

[GuiltyLion]

You guys are voting me because I think someone you think is scum is town, which is pretty stupid.
Vote your scumreads.

also this isn't stupid, Skit and I both repeatedly tried to engage you on why Karnage is town and your response was to pick ridiculous fights (accusing skit of slipping) and look for distractions elsewhere that you hadn't otherwise pushed all day (Molla). That could just as easily be WKing as S-S, I think it reads S-S in this instance but faked townreads are just as scummy as fake scumreads.

[GuiltyLion]

Lynch Karnage and cop nom

I'll be flabbergasted if there's not scum in either of those two slots

also it's not clear but this was in response to Auro's post about cop leash if we're not doing nom

if we're lynching outside of Karnage/nom I don't support it cause I don't think it'll flip scum. but I'll be on wagon if we are able to build that consensus and then leash the cop to Karnage/nom slots.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see how the Allo situation gets better tomorrow either, so at the very least we remove a distraction.

I think the Allo situation resolves itself

[GuiltyLion]

Why does GL need to be on wagon if we're able to build consensus? Unnecessary, no? It's like he wants to be sure the cop doesn't "disobey" the leash and check him... na.

I was more trying to say - though I phrased it pretty badly - if we decide to lynch someone besides nom/Karnage and I'm needed to get to majority at deadline, I'm not gonna refuse to vote a wagon on principle even though I think all not nom/Karnage lynches are bad. I'm fine being off wagons if we guarantee it'll go through

[GuiltyLion]

Skitter, Guilty, you're both OK with Nom lynch, yes?

yup

[GuiltyLion]

I think it's bad form to blame people for getting lynched in like 95% of cases

I'm still not sure what the consensus is on whether I should be on or off wagon but I'm happy to unvote if we have enough votes and I'm wanted in the copbloc

[GuiltyLion]

that's not why I want to lynch you lol

[GuiltyLion]

:/

well I guess acryon's in the cop bloc then...

[GuiltyLion]

I'd honestly need to re-read the game I think to give a 100% accurate opinion on that, but to me it felt like Smart/you were just having a lot of posts together (which is what I was referring to when I said walls) and scums were just waiting patiently. Makes sense still, methinks.

yeah, like Karnage?

I'll give you infinite towncred if you powerlynch scum!Karnage here with me

[GuiltyLion]

Skit is going to be back for a brief bit at some point, right?

We really need to consolidate on a lynch here. I'll vote almost anyone at this point. I actually think Karnage may be the way to go if we think nom's last bit of posting is genuine. His defense of her by saying she was joking when accusing Skit of scum slipping is wildly off the mark and hard for me to fathom as a genuine interpretation of that post/interaction without any agenda.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Karnage

[GuiltyLion]

I sympathize with that, happy to be off if Karnage is lynched. We need votes somewhere though its starting to feel like a real danger of no lynch

[GuiltyLion]

Allo are you down for a nom lynch?

[GuiltyLion]

I'll hammer it if nothing happens in the next 8 hours but I still maintain Karnage a better lynch here. It's literally deadline and where is the guy?

[GuiltyLion]

actually I'll let Auro have hammer if he wants

[GuiltyLion]

but I do want to be very sure we have a lynch

[GuiltyLion]

yeah but we can't exactly rely on that if it gets to within 2 hours of deadline, especially if she's scum, so I want somebody else to be able to say they will hammer if it gets close

[GuiltyLion]

please cop lynch Karnage or Me if this flips green, not Skit

[GuiltyLion]

if I'm copped, I can lead on Karnage as conftown

if Karnage is copped, he's either scum or it's super important he gets cleared

neither of us will be NK'd in the current game state

[GuiltyLion]

sorry "cop" not "cop lynch" lol

[GuiltyLion]

nom if you're town I wish you had just... joined me on Karnage like several days ago

[GuiltyLion]

I think TLDNE/Auro/Allo/Molla/Skit are town regardless of what this flips

Rex/acryon/Karnage is where I'm looking for scum. Maybe Eve too on a townflip. I'm kinda skeptical no scum on this wagon if it flips green

[GuiltyLion]

actually acryon is proooobably still town I don't see why he'd vote park on Allo and then come back to vote nom by EOD if scum, could have just voted nom to begin with or not returned to thread

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Karnage

[GuiltyLion]

did anything useful come out of the hood from Eve/Saus/Molla?

[GuiltyLion]

Eve is probably town too.

I haven't read all the way yet but I wanna know why in your eyes Eve is "probably town"

[GuiltyLion]

... it's day2 and we've had flips already
i'm kinda not sure how you don't have any reads at this point ...

But on the flip side, it'd be kinda remarkable to be under that much pressure as scum and still refuse to fake any reads, no?

-Smart

some people play a scared scumgame, they operate out of fear of saying anything too out of line

[GuiltyLion]

If you're town, you don't want the cop to check you because it's a waste of check, which GL did say as much earlier on. So it was odd for him to then say either he/Karnage should be checked. He should know there's no real thing as a clear--we talked about this.

Many other things led me to believe GL was town, but I do think this post is odd, so I'd like to hear his thoughts on it.

I was frustrated that nom was saying to thought cop skitter, and also that nom was likely townflipping when I couldn't seem to get any traction on Karnage throughout late D2

I am rather convinced he's scum and knew that I was gonna be pushing it hard D2, I did not want to deal with what would be IMO a waste of a cop elsewhere

I also don't think I was ever like 'annoyed' with being cop checked? That feels like a misrep from Auro, I said I'd be fine with it even while acknowledging that it's a waste of a shot on you as town

[GuiltyLion]

What's interesting to me is GL's trajectory from being annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc

Can you show me which posts gave you the feeling of me being "annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc"? I was always more annoyed with being scumread by you and therefore discredited and constantly pushed against for my reads more than the idea of being in a copbloc.

[GuiltyLion]

With the respect to the soft, I definitely saw it and felt it was obvious at the time. I somewhat regret highlighting it so explicitly because I wonder if scum may not have seen it at the same time I did, but I also wanted to see if anyone was going to counterclaim or push Allo harder, which nobody did for about a page so then I backed off and re-evaluated. It also made his early game interactions with Eve make a ton more sense, cause he was skeptical of her for the TA claim when he was riffing on her shitposting but not giving content.

So yes I did see it immediately and I dunno how I would have played it as scum in terms of dayplay but if I were scum I always would have shot him at night there because I think it was pretty blatant. Acryon going back to Allo may be a towntell I feel, cause I don't think he'd miss it as scum if he were looking for TA suspects, and it seems unlikely he was faking not seeing it.

[GuiltyLion]

i'm kinda most skeptical of where she accused me of slipping because i really don't think there's any universe where she actually believes that

I read it as being a joke

this is possibly worse still though, how could you see it as a joke? Like best case "totally checked out and disengaged town taking a potshot" maybe, but there's no 'joke' there?

sarcasm can be a joke.

Can everybody look at this sequence again, now that we definitively know that nom is town and was genuinely accusing skitter of scumslipping.

First, Karnage tries to defend her by saying she was joking. Which makes no sense on its face, as it's pretty clear in context that she wasn't joking and it doesn't make any actual sense as a joke (see my 1071 as well) - what's the punchline? where's the humor coming from?

And then even after makes it clear she wasn't joking, Karnage doubles down trying to defend his interpretation, by saying now it could have been sarcastic? ?? Can you guys read nom's 862 and 864 and subsequent 947 and try to put yourself in the mindset of a townie who sees sarcasm in those posts?

I think it's much more likely Karnage knew she was flipping town and wanted to buddy up to her or make himself look good knowing she'd flip green. It's really hard for me to imagine thinking nom's posts were a joke or sarcastic and not even acknowledging I critically read the game wrong when called out on it. This is just defensive, irrational, and far more likely to be scum-motivated IMO than Karnage genuinely participating in the game and trying to get a handle on people

[GuiltyLion]

As another point - Karnage disappearing at deadline is sketchy at deadline too. As town, how often do you totally fail to check in on a game as it gets close to deadline? As scum I'll totally lurk the thread and avoid posting if things are going in a positive direction for me and I don't wanna deal with the effort of maintaining appearances if I don't have to, but if I'm town I'm

concerned

. Whenever it's the last time I can realistically make a post before deadline I'm giving my opinions, negotiating votes, and either making sure I'm available or telling people I'm

not

available when we're last minute scrambling for a wagon and lynch.

I know we have a bunch of lurksacks in this game overall but look at Molla's last posts in D1. That's low content/availability, but it's also showing actual thought about where the day is headed and how we can avoid no lynch. Karnage's last posts several days before deadline were calling me out for not voting, then asking who we were lynching 1018 and 1020, then saying he's fine off-wagon. There's little to no expression in his EOD1 posts about actually caring who's lynched or even whether it happens at all.

[GuiltyLion]

sorry there's a few minor typos and run ons in the posts above, I've had an edible and it's kicking in so my ability to choose the right words or proofread my posts occasionally gets sloppy

[GuiltyLion]

I know it isn't. Don't think I necessarily need a vote to make my pushes , but yeah I'll be more active in a while.

I think {Acryon, Eve, Karnage, 1/0} are all town.
Molla is also town.
GL, perhaps.

PoE of {Skitter, Rex} then.

Switch Eve and GL and it's the same for me.

Guilty and Auro are probably town

skitter is a little off and my only scum impression

I don't understand how I'm getting town or prob-town reads from Auro, Acryon, Eve, yet literally no engagement with my Karnage case. Guys, Karnage is a competent player who has played a fair amount of mafia. He's not gonna just derp-scum and make himself obvious immediately in the early game. Why are the three of you reading his slot as unlikely to be scum?? Do you have any thoughts at all regarding my points I've made of how his defense of nom was really unnatural and how his absence at EOD1 sticks out?

[GuiltyLion]

idk I feel Karnage's play here is similar to my own as scum (tempted to reference the aforementioned Newbie game again ), where you just aim to sound town by tone/reasoning and post & do as little as you can get away with. He's getting away with not doing a whole lot it seems!

[GuiltyLion]

Auro why is your vote not on scum!Karnage

[GuiltyLion]

Karnage is locktown now.

No? As far as replace outs go that one is fully NAI. He wants somebody to do a better job with his slot, that can be town realizing they're not playing and being scumread for it, or scum feeling like deadweight to their buddy.

[GuiltyLion]

are you arguing it takes more effort to post as town than as scum? I strongly disagree with that

[GuiltyLion]

The only times I've ever replaced out due to not being able to keep up, intentionally or otherwise, were as scum

[GuiltyLion]

heya Titus

I actually think you're pretty town here you're just following some faulty VC logic when the VCs this game are inherently borked due to us negotiating wagons. I don't think my play is fairly characterized as 'vote parking' or following onto lynches cause I was pretty vocal about Karnage throughout D1 as well and this is just kinda the lynch I want. Can you work with me on looking through Karnage's ISO and see whether you have reasons to townread there?

TLDNE/Skit, I think both of you all are town, I'll let you two continue to hash it out if it'll help you reach that same conclusion, but I just want it on the record y'all my townbloc and we're gonna win this game against Karnage and whoever the partner is

[GuiltyLion]

unfortunately I feel it's gotta be you :/

[GuiltyLion]

I understand that but it's not going to stop me from advocating a lynch on scum!Karnage

my lockdown pool is skit/TLDNE/acryon. Maybe I'm getting horrifically blindsided by one of them but I don't think any of them are working together and I feel all their attempts to sort and solve shit are earnest. Molla isn't trying to solve all that hard but he does have moments where he feels super pure. and I still kinda gut townread Eve though I do think the flips and game state make her slot worth scrutiny

[GuiltyLion]

TLDNE/Skit, I think both of you all are town, I'll let you two continue to hash it out if it'll help you reach that same conclusion, but I just want it on the record y'all my townbloc and we're gonna win this game against Karnage and whoever the partner is

idk
i'm kinda having a hard time with limit here again, why are you townreading them again?

Lilith feels so brazenly honest in her reasoning and reads that I have a hard time imagining it coming from scum!her. The level of indignance at certain points in arguments, mindmeld on interpreting different game events and posts, hydra dissonance between her and Smart, all of it just feels very unlikely to be fake together holistically.

Also this is a much weaker point bc I haven't seen scum!Smart in some time but I think Smart as scum is a bit more pushy/agenda-y. Here he's playing to what I generally see in his town game of kinda just poking holes at different people's opinions and otherwise okay with taking a backseat to watch most of the game unfold.

[GuiltyLion]

heya Titus

I actually think you're pretty town here you're just following some faulty VC logic when the VCs this game are inherently borked due to us negotiating wagons. I don't think my play is fairly characterized as 'vote parking' or following onto lynches cause I was pretty vocal about Karnage throughout D1 as well and this is just kinda the lynch I want. Can you work with me on looking through Karnage's ISO and see whether you have reasons to townread there?

Titus can you work with me here?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

unfortunately I feel it's gotta be you :/

^town doesn't make this post

explain why "town doesn't make that post"?

[GuiltyLion]

Sure, I'll agree with you that it would have been better for scum!acryon to vote for allomancer earlier, but 1) scum don't always do the 100% optimal thing! like saying "scum's best play would have been this" doesn't mean that that's what scum did; and 2) there were plenty of people who were willing to lynch allo at the end of D1 and he may have been hoping that his scum partner would help successfully swing the lynch there after his vote, or that him voting there and saying "I think this is what needs to be done" would make the Allo lynch feel like the only option that close to deadline. I do think he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon; and I think it's perfectly plausible for scum to believe that an Allo lynch is viable at deadline D1.

So I can understand this reasoning, and definitely was tempted to feel this way immediately upon seeing Acryon's late D1 Allo vote, but then why does he come back to the thread to vote nom? I felt that was genuine town drive to make sure a Lynch happens.

[compare again to my point about how Karnage literally flaked out of doing anything useful end of D1, even while he was onsite posting in general discussion about politics]

[GuiltyLion]

This feels like a nontown stream of thoughts, I've never as town been like "Oh this guy is one scum... oh no due to PoE the other has to be you " I've had that happen multiple times as scum where you're just mathematically making your scumreads and you end up having to scumread a player who you didn't want to, but if he genuinely believed Karnage was scum I imagine he'd have come to the conclusion of 1571 eons earlier than these posts imply.

ah sorry I hadn't seen this post when I posted my other one

I've been low key suspecting Auro as a possible partner all D2? Especially given how hard he's tried to townclear/refuse to vote Karnage. See my 1468 and 1481 and 1483

as for another point - if I were scum, why would I lock myself into suggesting I think Auro is the most likely partner when it would be infinitely easier for me to throw more shade at Titus or acryon or Eve or whoever? There's tons of other slots I could have viably scumread, it's not like I've somehow boxed myself into making that post. I don't see why you can't see it as genuine.

[GuiltyLion]

They both want to invalidate my VCA but Auro has some unique suggestions that make me favor him. His VCA discredit sounds like a robotic recycle of the hydra's complaints. He also objects to how I caught GL (with the VCA) while having GL in his scumpool.

We're invalidating your VCA because it's clearly an incorrect method when we were trying to negotiate who would be on wagons and forming a copbloc based on the assumption that the lynch flips town. It's really foolish and stubborn to try to VCA regardless when you've been told of this fact several times.

[GuiltyLion]

Titus I have been scum hunting towards Karnage and possible Karnage partners for like the entirety of mid-D1 to now. PLEASE read my points about Karnage and my request to you to give a read on the slot, especially if you are townreading that ISO

[GuiltyLion]

allllllll that being said I was just thinking Atarashi feels surpisingly townie by these intro posts

bc like he just said (and I was curious to hear his read on me given I've been hardpushing his slot most of the game), we

just

played scum together and I also feel his level of thought/effort here immediately exceeds everything he did as scum in that game.

[GuiltyLion]

I think

if Karnage is town,
and I'm right on my core townreads of TLDNE/skit/acryon

then scum were not pushing it and are trying to set themselves up for mislynches post Karnage flip, because I had indicated I wasn't going to drop this anytime soon and with Skit also pushing there. and it might fit bc I've been feeling some serious WK-y vibes from nearly everyone in the thread failing to engage with my heavy push on Karnage at start of today.

I'm gonna try to re-evaluate and look at D1 again with town!Karnage in mind, but I'm wondering if it's in Auro/Eve/Titus/Molla now

Atari I don't hate your acryon case and I'll try to reread him again with your points in mind, but I still feel that slot flips town more often than not here

[GuiltyLion]

Atari I'm here if you wanna talk

what do you think of Molla, you forgot him in your reads post

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Skitter
This is scum. Cop her/lynch her.

maybe we should sheep nomnom

this is a real bad post

[GuiltyLion]

Whats your read on skitter?

I think skitter's solid town. The way she re-evaluated on me feels pure, I've mind melded with her on most reads outside of when she was scumreading me, I think we just had to pick at each other early game for a bit and then saw each other correctly.

I also feel she has this indignant vibe (similar to Lilith) and it doesn't match with survivalism so much as genuine frustration with people disagreeing with her or making faulty assumptions, I generally think that's quite hard to fake, scum either underdo it or it winds up feeling more forced and performative

[GuiltyLion]

noms was pretty clearly tilted and it's probably not wise to sheep her, but I disagree wholeheartedly with 1702.

-Smart

I think it looks to me like Eve is shading skitter for the sake of shade (IIRC skitter called other people out for this earlier as 'pussyfooting' to see if it's acceptable to vote there), and she's also deflecting responsibility by using a dead townie's reads rather than her own.

[GuiltyLion]

So they'll largely be apathetic or sheep. This is what happened yesterday.

Characterizing me as 'apathetic' just shows you clearly aren't reading the game or checking your assumptions against actual posts. I was quite aggressive in forcing the Lynch onto either nom/Karnage and then when nom was still engaging/fighting at the bitter end I appealed to her to lynch Karnage with me.

[GuiltyLion]

The votes don't show that.

Stop whining and start scum hunting.

Again -

THE VOTES DO NOT FOLLOW ORDINARY VOTING RULES BECAUSE HALF THE TIME WE WERE DEBATING WHO SHOULD BE ON WHAT WAGON AND NEGOTIATING WHEN/WHERE TO VOTE

also, why do you say this as if I am not scum hunting? I've been scumhunting the entire game and if you actually read any of my posts instead of skimming VCs you would see that

[GuiltyLion]

So they'll largely be apathetic or sheep. This is what happened yesterday.

Characterizing me as 'apathetic' just shows you clearly aren't reading the game or checking your assumptions against actual posts. I was quite aggressive in forcing the Lynch onto either nom/Karnage and then when nom was still engaging/fighting at the bitter end I appealed to her to lynch Karnage with me.

The votes don't show that.

Stop whining and start scum hunting.

also this is just objectively wrong lol, it's quite clear in the VCs even given us negotiating votes

Here is where I am voting/pushing Allo:

Votecount 1.17

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (3)	nomnomnom (211), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (533)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
skitter30 (1)	The Limit Does Not Exist (643)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Then I unvote when it's decided that I shouldn't be on the wagon:

Votecount 1.19

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), Eve (533), acryon (711), The Limit Does Not Exist (713)
Eve (2)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299), GuiltyLion (717)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Then Allo softs TA and I start pushing nom:

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Still pushing nom:

Votecount 1.21

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (5)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076), The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), nomnomnom (1119)
Eve (1)	acryon (1036)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (3)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Then I switch to Karnage (and hop off the nom wagon since I am to be in a copbloc) and convince nom to vote there:

Votecount 1.27

Target	Wagon
Karnage (3)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256), nomnomnom (1271)
nomnomnom (3)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272)
Allomancer (1)	acryon (1252)
Not Voting (4)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), SausasaurusRex (1157), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Still pushing Karnage at EOD

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (6)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272), acryon (1286), SausasaurusRex (1289), nomnomnom (1300)
Karnage (2)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256)
Not Voting (3)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. nomnomnom has been lynched.

[GuiltyLion]

I am just hearing whining. You aren't going to persuade me by whining about my methods. It just makes you look like caught for the wrong reasons, particularly when I asked you about your AH thoughts but I get met with more whining.

I gave AH thoughts already.

Constantly characterizing my pushing you on questionable/flawed reasoning as "whining" is really disingenuous

[GuiltyLion]

Votes on a wagon are votes on a wagon. They don't say pushed or not. I see a player who needs the support of others before getting on a wagon.

And I'm saying if you read the actual game you wouldn't see that

I'm very waffley on Auro. The entire game he's felt principled against townreading me, no matter how much I tried to engage with him, and similarly has felt principled against ever scumreading the Karnage slot. I can easily imagine this as a scum agenda of discrediting my play (which he knows is generally above average IMO) and either protecting buddy Karnage or WKing a slot to set himself up for a better D3.

There are occasional moments where I do like things that he's pushing or doing, but these are few and far in between. If Eve is scum then Auro's town equity goes wayyyy up. If Eve is town (and Atari is town) then I'd say Auro is rather good odds of scum, but even then I'm still worried on the possibility of a Molla/Titus team where Auro and I have just been barking up opposite trees and each correctly townreading a slot that the other scumreads, and unable to find each other as town as a result.

I don't think he's the best lynch today but I'd really love if we could find any common ground at all and he seems incapable of doing that with me

[GuiltyLion]

what's the VC? After Atarashi's play vs Titus' today I could see myself voting Titus, and I think the Saus slip is a pretty good point.

I think Molla makes a lot more sense than Skitter as a partner though

UNVOTE:

Auro all will be good with us if we flip Titus and she flips scum . I do like that we have largely consensus townreads esp on TLDNE and acryon, that's fair that I was kinda ignoring that

[GuiltyLion]

Doubling down on "I've suspected Auro all along" and then linking times you disagreed with Auro aint great though GL I gotta tell ya

Why can't Karnage be scum with Titus or acryon or Eve or whoever? Why does it have to "sadly be Auro "?

wasn't your argument that if I thought Auro was a partner with Karnage I would have come to that conclusion earlier? Why is me then pointing out times that I was pushing on Auro "not great"?

I was townreading acryon/Eve and I guess Titus/Karnage is loosely possible but I didn't feel it at the time, if Saus/Karnage was the team D1 then scum was hardcore coasting yet somehow the game went quite badly on D1 for town, that doesn't feel especially likely.

[GuiltyLion]

I'll be honest I ignored them lmfao

I'll go read them now

I was iffy on Limit early game, they just seem town, idk, wouldn't stake my life on it

Nah I still think Acryon is town, the stuff that pinged for me early game pinged for you too, but other than then they have seemed town

although actually I dunno if Molla as scum claims to be going to read the acryon push and then reject it in the span of literally one minute

feels much more likely to be town doing a quick skim and gut take than scum lying

[GuiltyLion]

I tried in 1569 and 1664!

also, I see your points about Skit's associative with Saus/Titus today being kinda meh, but do you think Skit is

that

sloppy as scum? Like she pretty explicitly called people out for voting Saus when he wasn't playing the game, and has been kinda casually defending him a lot today, I don't think she'd feel the need to go all in to defend him here.

I'm sorta wonder if Atari may actually be right on Acryon, when I'm rereading his ISO I'm finding more small things to dislike, but I'm not really all that confident in it yet. I wanna flip Titus before Skitter here, I think if Titus flips town that actually makes the case for scum!Skitter much more solid

[GuiltyLion]

There's no town reason to out a soft.

I already explained why I outed the soft

With the respect to the soft, I definitely saw it and felt it was obvious at the time. I somewhat regret highlighting it so explicitly because I wonder if scum may not have seen it at the same time I did, but I also wanted to see if anyone was going to counterclaim or push Allo harder, which nobody did for about a page so then I backed off and re-evaluated. It also made his early game interactions with Eve make a ton more sense, cause he was skeptical of her for the TA claim when he was riffing on her shitposting but not giving content.

So yes I did see it immediately and I dunno how I would have played it as scum in terms of dayplay but if I were scum I always would have shot him at night there because I think it was pretty blatant. Acryon going back to Allo may be a towntell I feel, cause I don't think he'd miss it as scum if he were looking for TA suspects, and it seems unlikely he was faking not seeing it.

[GuiltyLion]

I agree with flipping Titus before skitter, but I'm not sure I agree that town!Titus makes scum!skitter more likely. Explain that one to me?

eh that was just kind of a POE thought

bc I don't think town!Titus reflects badly on most of my lock-town reads
and I think the way skitter loosely defended Saus is more likely to be WK-y than buddy defending buddy.

but end of the day I don't think it's like Skitter is hard scum if Titus is town, I just was still on the track thinking Skitter is better as scum than to do half-assed associatives

[GuiltyLion]

I did put a suggestion in case I was wrong, but you guys are acting like you have information which says GL is innocent and refusing to even consider he was scum.

because nothing you conclude from your VCA argument reflects at all the reality of Day 1 and how it was played

and when we try to point that out, you post nonsense

[GuiltyLion]

like the fact that Auro has been calling me suspect all game, yet immediately criticizes your sloppy/faulty VCA reasoning, should make you pause and stop, not double down.

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion You should focus a little on building consensus about 1/0 with Skitter, tbh

And vice versa, actually. Why do you think this is out of skitter's scumrange?

-Smart

I also feel she has this indignant vibe (similar to Lilith) and it doesn't match with survivalism so much as genuine frustration with people disagreeing with her or making faulty assumptions, I generally think that's quite hard to fake, scum either underdo it or it winds up feeling more forced and performative

Isn't scum also

genuinely

frustrated with people not agreeing with them?

so on these questions, I don't know if I can really muster up a great/satisfying answer at this point, outside of when I already tried to explain in 1721. I guess it's not impossible that skitter is scum but I've just agreed with so much of what's she's argued or posted that I feel I need evidence of where she's manipulating the game state or being disingenuous in order for me to reconsider and take a harder look. It feels like everyone is POEing down to her rather than making a case for what she's done that she wouldn't do as town.

I wanna see where she goes now that Atari and Titus are playing

[GuiltyLion]

In the VCs you quoted:

Skitter first vote in 1.1, 1.16.
GuiltyLion first vote in 1.1, 1.23

GL was literally the first vote in equally as much wagons as Skit from the ones you quoted here. Hardly sheepy at all

GL has a bunch of sheep votes in the middle. Also 1.23 is end of day. Second, 1.23 GL is only first because others peeled off. Hardly leading a charge there. Skitter's first vote is on GL in 1.16. Suddenly Skitter is suspect enough to be copped.

Suddenly Skitter is suspect enough to be copped.

Citation needed.

please cop lynch Karnage or Me if this flips green, not Skit

Suddenly Skitter is suspect enough to be copped.

Citation needed.

please cop lynch Karnage or Me if this flips green, not Skit

End of day wagon, Skitter is off it. I was referring to the collective consensus. Since y'all positioned for the TA.

GL wouldn't want Skitter to be conftown. That's conftown pushing him. Town would want to know if their biggest detractor was town or scum.

I think this is also pretty scum-indicative from Titus here

first she argues that I wanted Skitter copped because she was pushing me

then Auro points out that I explicitly said

not

to cop Skitter at EOD (thanks Auro! also worth pointing out that Skitter was townreading me by this point)

then she argues that the reason I don't want Skitter copped is because then she'd be conf-town and pushing me, which is

the exact opposite of what she

just

said!

Like literally she first argues that I wanted skitter copped because she was pushing me, then immediately switches to argue that I

don't

want skitter copped because she was pushing me.

it's motivated reasoning - Titus just wants to assume that I'm scum and fit any and all evidence to that narrative, even when directly confronted with new evidence that is contrary to her original reasoning, she just changes her reasoning completely.

It's also again abundantly clear that she's trying to argue having not even read the game, because calling Skitter my "biggest detractor" is not based in reality of end of Day 1. Auro was my biggest detractor

[GuiltyLion]

It feels like everyone is POEing down to her rather than making a case for what she's done that she wouldn't do as town.

But that's a reasonable mode of thinking, no? If there's a reason not to vote most people, that can be a reason to vote skitter, even if she hasn't done anything she wouldn't do as town.

-Smart

I don't think it's unreasonable, I just don't really vibe with it.

[GuiltyLion]

Titus I specifically asked you MULTIPLE TIMES to look at Karnage with me and you ignored me. That was me scumhunting and trying to work with you as I thought you were town and just making too many assumptions about a thread you hadn't read.

Then when you refused to engage with me whatsoever and insisted on parroting completely factually incorrect takes about how I played D1, misrepping me constantly (saying I was "whining"), and Atari started towning up his slot, I re-evaluated and started hunting elsewhere in Molla/Eve/your slot

I've also been in constant talks with multiple people about Skitter and why I think she is town

so why do you say none of that is scumhunting?

[GuiltyLion]

Skitter I don't like when you do these catchups where you question a bunch of things but don't really add in new direction beyond that - who's your ideal lynch right now?

[GuiltyLion]

also Titus if you

actually read

D1 and GL/Auro interactions you'd also see that we're pretty transparently not partners, I'm not capable as scum of faking the level of frustration I felt with him and the degree to which we engaged about the game on a wide variety of fronts

[GuiltyLion]

I intend to vote Titus as soon as I see a VC, especially if she continues to be incapable of re-evaluating on me or responding to any reasoning (and/or literal facts), because that needs to get resolved ASAP and I am not absolutely not willing to deal with her continuing this tunnel on later days.

If she does flip town then I think Eve is prob scum.

Outside of that, not really sure. I don't feel like I have a good grip on a Titus partner, which is worrying.

Molla's push on me I can sorta see as genuine town reasoning though I simultaneously don't like how that's the one thing he's focused on and not... any of the other things happening.

I'm in the process of trying to check myself on acryon again - tonally he sounds super town but I can vibe with where Atari is coming from and I don't see a lot of scum elsewhere.

I still think Skit/Limit/Atari are town. Gun to my head I think you're town but all bets are off on your slot if Titus flips town.

[GuiltyLion]

actually sorry I should be more fair to Molla, he did look at Atari's acryon case and the way he rebuffed it also feels really town, unless it's literally Molla/acryon. So Molla still prob town

[GuiltyLion]

I'm worried this might be the Eve thing all over again where I'll try to give some reasons and you'll disagree/argue with them and we'll go in circles doing that until I give up trying to keep substantiating more reasoning with more reasoning

I just think she's looking at most everything I'm looking at the same way, and if she's scum I can't see what her agenda is, I don't believe she defends her partner Rex in the way that she did, and also if she is partnered with Rex, then why does she continue to defend against the 'slip' while then also arguing repeatedly with Titus in the very same sequence of catchup posts? Like she's setting herself up to push Titus, but also then coming back to questioning you on how you went from town!Titus to scum!Titus? none of it feels very much like it's premeditated or with a goal in mind

idk, I'm not exactly qualified to speak authoritatively on what's AI from skitter I just now went back and looked at my history with her and she's been scum in all three games I played with her lmao. and I often townread her early in those games. I wanna say she felt a bit more ~diplomatic~ as scum whereas here she's been a lot more hostile/aggressive, but I can't genuinely back that up with good evidence, just a vibe I've gotten from this game. And who is her partner if not Titus? Nearly everyone else has been arguing/shading her or is independently pretty town.

[GuiltyLion]

I guess maybe with the hostile/aggressive thing, the way I can substantiate that is this - skitter has been picking fights with people like me, Limit, you, but they never seem to lead her to pushing on any of those slots. She reversed on me, she reversed twice on Limit, she hasn't been pushing you for a lynch either IIRC. So basically, why is scum!skitter getting into all these slapfights if she's not trying to push the pedal to the metal and turn them into scumreads with conviction? It just feels kinda flaily and more likely to be genuine uninformed town!skitter trying to find useful things to read from rather than planning out a trajectory to get mislynches.

in terms of counterplay, I think skitter could have gotten quite far just bussing Rex and killing you or Limit. Acryon/Eve have at times looked her way but never seemed too committed to it, I think she could get an Eve lynch, maybe a Molla lynch, Atari and I are both townreading her. I think if she chose to "hard defend" the slip especially given the way the thread has turned even further against Titus, that's a huge gamble here for virtually no payoff as I doubt skitter can singlehandedly save the slot. At the very least I'd expect her to be hard pushing someone pushing Rex, she's not even doing that.

[GuiltyLion]

okay, but then why does she defend me so much against Titus just now? Why not just ignore Titus' wildly off-base comments and focus on pushing like you or Atari or acryon or something?

I get that I've been probably the most vocal Skitter townreader and maybe she's doing that to try to keep me pocketed, but if she goes too far down that road by engaging with Titus (who seems to be currently insisting on 1v1ing with me) then it has to lead to either her voting Titus (a bus anyways) or somehow reversing and voting me, which would look insanely bad if/when I flip town. Like I can't imagine they planned this interaction on this page in their PT.

you're kinda saying "if Skitter is scum then she would have to do what she's doing right now", but I don't really think that's a convincing argument for her being scum. I can see your points in terms of the associative, but I'm def lynching Titus before Skitter here every time.