Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[Auro]

I agree but I’m saying she should be the lynch and therefore on the wagon

Right, I was talking about in the case that she isn't. I do doubt she would agree to self-hammer though

[Auro]

UNVOTE:

[Auro]

{Acryon, 1/0, BBMolla, Rex, GuiltyLion, Eve} ideally.

{Nom, Allomancer, Skitter30, Auro, Karnage} -> Probably Karnage can hammer if Eve refuses to self?

[Auro]

I believe I had considered your reasons myself at one point beforehand, and dismissed them. I would strongly say he belongs to the cop bloc lol.

[Auro]

Give his ISO a skim, whatever he's posting seems very forced. Eve's posts show a natural progression, actually - it's only that her lack of co-operation sux.
Perhaps talk to Smart a little more about this and that would lead to a more thought out decision, I suppose?

[Auro]

This game needs a bit more activity before we can solidify anything, though, I feel

[Auro]

Do you not think Karnage's willingness to be in the cop bloc is not town indicative?

[Auro]

But continuously volunteering to do so versus just being okay with it?

[Auro]

I'm cool with not being on the wagon

I'm fine with being off wagon

And again very recently.

[Auro]

I see it and not just wrt Karnage but as a general feature of her play this game. I think I've detailed this in a post earlier too

[Auro]

The other option would be to not say anything.
I think only Molla actively volunteered otherwise.

[Auro]

They're also at points where people were beginning to suspect Karnage more.

[Auro]

Of course it's townie. They see suspicion on them, see town deliberating over wagon composition, readily volunteer to be in the bloc. Cop checks are weighted random. His volunteering actually *increases* the chance he'll be in the bloc. It's a rather unnecessary move, with a bad cost.

As scum I'd expect him to attempt to get townread from kicking up solving, etc if that makes sense

[Auro]

I'd personally rather just lynch Nom today, highest scum equity

[Auro]

Gives townpoints and? Town's more likely to just chuck them in the copbloc for convenience if they're taking that risk upon themselves, sure.

[Auro]

I'm specifically saying town's likelier to say that than scum would for townpoints. Anyway, it's relatively minor; I discourage a Karnage lynch. I don't think the "reading it as joke" thing has much weight either.

[Auro]

Lynches will occur when a majority (>50%) is reached. If no majority is reached before deadline, the player with the most votes will be lynched.

So we can have a single vote plurality "wagon" with no one else voting, thus making virtually anyone coppable?

[Auro]

I think it's less fun wrt the spirit of the game abusing this anyway, but we do need some modification to deadline lynching then; prolly could use an extension/pause till she comes back I guess.

I don't like setups where town are OP, making scum not even try to play.

[Auro]

I'm not scared of your scumgame, Nom, but that I'm wrongly mislynching you.

[Auro]

No hammers cause need to decide wagon comp

[Auro]

They'll have to weigh against probable NKs as well

[Auro]

What kind of defense do you want me to give to the shit people give me? "nuh uh I'm town"??

Generally I expect that you scumhunt and put in some more efforts, versus admittedly lazy play, Nom. Not being transparent about your thoughts when your actions fit a plausible scumgenda, and complaining about the game a lot both are scummy.

[Auro]

But the idea was that if we lynched one of them, the other would be the obvious lynch for the next day,

We need to lock this in D1, though.

[Auro]

Mafia is not a logic game, but logic can get you really far, a lot farther than most people think

And, while Eve hasn't been very elaborative in her reasoning, I can actually see the town progression in her votes. That's why I preferred Allo over Eve.

[Auro]

oh wow the page 45 emotion looks pretty real actually

Really? It looks fake to me
viewtopic.php?p=11679632#p11679632 as town where she did some AtE while being run up, but it looks a lot more genuine, and she continuously kept solving as well

[Auro]

it's 100% the same shit that Maria and DEB just did in TM2020 did, bunch of townies fight each other while scum clap their hands and look at dumb townies screaming at each other
and what do you know I was a top wagon for 3 days straight in this game, it's almost like every game I have a spotlight put on my face because of how easy it is to think I am scum for the things I do
every game starts to play out the same for me time and time again

the biggest thing I've learned is that I should actually just coast as town because whenever I put my vote with conviction on someone bunch of people think my cases are bad and scumread me for that alone
I really should just zip it and start silently voting I can guarantee you that then I'd literally never have the problem I'm having right now ever again

people constantly read things I do as town as scummy and vote me for completely weird reasons, and I get away with the biggest things as scum without anyone batting an eye
if you want proof of that you can check the micro I just played where I got away with not saying much of interest and people letting me get away with a scumwin

I'm starting to believe that once again skitter has been traumatized by my scumgame enough that she starts thinking I could be scum this game
you on the other hand you've been shaky with your read on me and changing it plenty while dodging important things

[Auro]

I'm considering having cop leash, you're fine being the cop check tonight?

[Auro]

I prefer lynching Nom over Allomancer. I don't read Allo's recent posting as towny, I feel they're a bit forced. Do you have a better lynch candidate, Rex?

[Auro]

Nom's ISO is more complaints and less solving.
Last time she had this kind of oubtburst, she kept solving.

[Auro]

I expect you to try harder

[Auro]

I just want a flip even if it's mine

Cool, then why really bother if I'm pushing you as the lynch?

Nope, I would strongly suggest against Karnage unless 1/0 and Crayon both feel that should be the lynch. Nom should be the lynch and if not, Allo; and GL/Skitter/Myself should all be off wagon definitely. I know you want him in the townbloc, Smart, but still. Still feel cop shouldn't be leashed

[Auro]

Nope, Cop shouldn't be lynched - it should still be a die roll, and in fact, Nom if town should make herself readable D2.

I think Cop should be leashed to {Auro, Skitter, GuiltyLion} because the three of us are strongly off threat of lynch for the foreseeable future, and while I do townread them in a vacuum, I do not consider myself too reliable in those reads; and thus want to insure against that case.

[Auro]

Nah. I think Karnage when given time to post will be more readable. Cop should be reserved initially for the difficult-to-read slots.

When I was pushing my townbloc the whole day, scum strategy to outplay this is to aggressively attack members in the townbloc, break it open, and destroy cohesion. While yes, it's true that the reasons to scumread Nom feel legitimate, it's easy to see scum taking advantage of her play if she's town to pursue this agenda.

if we're lynching outside of Karnage/nom I don't support it cause I don't think it'll flip scum. but I'll be on wagon if we are able to build that consensus and then leash the cop to Karnage/nom slots.

Why does GL need to be on wagon if we're able to build consensus? Unnecessary, no? It's like he wants to be sure the cop doesn't "disobey" the leash and check him... na.

Skitter was pushing Smarter slot before, and Nom now.

Naa - cop should be leashed to a die roll in me, Skitter, GL for N1 at least.

[Auro]

The only way of actually producing "innos" is by leashing, and I don't want leashing. If cop checks him via die, coming out to save him from being mislynched D2 is poor play.
I guess this circles back to way earlier, but optimal early checks for cops is by leashing to the set of power scum players.

I'm confident that Rex will also tell as he posts more. We'll make him post more

[Auro]

She means a universal townread

[Auro]

No

[Auro]

Skitter, Guilty, you're both OK with Nom lynch, yes?

[Auro]

Cool. Smart, Acryon; you fine with a Nom lynch too?

[Auro]

The problem is that your confusion and emotions are not hard for scum to fake, whereas genuine solving in a playerlist with many towny people is.
And the fact that you have faked these emotions before does not help us townread you.

[Auro]

And I don't feel you've tried. I don't think you've made an effort to read a lot of posts. If you're unable to even try, then what's the guarantee a flip will change things?
If you read all of it, had stances on different things and the net result was that you're confused about who's scum, that's totally acceptable. Refusal to read and form thoughts is lynch-worthy, Nom

OK cool can you show me instances where you, as town, showed the same level of confusion? I played against town!you in Boon's Upick and I feel a difference.

You were willing to let people scumread each other, hammer each other and so on in this game too.

[Auro]

Nom you wanna dictate the lynch wagon then?

[Auro]

I see you were confused about certain things happening in the gamestate. I don't see "confusion" paired with an "inability to read/catch up".

[Auro]

So how were you advancing your own reads on slots apart from Allo/Eve?

Ok; I asked this once and got ignored, but I'll ask again: Say Allo flips town. This is a progression by your standards. Now who does this point to?

Can you cite posts from the "confused" game implying your confusion stemmed from a lack of ability to read the game, rather than people behaving weirdly?

[Auro]

pointless posts. There's so many useless posts in this game.

Take any random page, and cite the useless posts in there for me. Thanks

[Auro]

So do you have any macro-comments on the gamestate leading up to the wagon on you?
If you've already stated before, sorry, I skimmed them , please re-summarize.

[Auro]

Sorry, I phrased wrongly: macro gamesate reads before you got wagoned.

[Auro]

Yes.

[Auro]

Lynching Karnage with GL on wagon is like worst case. Skitter GL should definitely be off

[Auro]

I mean, I want a Nom lynch? I don't townread any of her AtE. Molla, vote her?

Acryon, any reasons you don't wanna vote Nom?

[Auro]

Limit and Acryon pls place votes on a common target

[Auro]

Okay, this is going to be a little difficult then. Rex doesn't seem to be around as well. Molla, can you vote with Smarter? Karnage, can you vote Nom?

One more in Rex/Eve vote her and she can self

[Auro]

You are expected to make at least one game-relevant post every 48 hours. Players who go 48 hours without posting will be prodded.
-If you are prodded, you have 24 hours to post in-thread. If you do not respond within 24 hours, you will be replaced. Additionally, if I have to prod you 3 or more times, I reserve the right to replace you at my own discretion.

NSG, I hope you enforce these strictly.

[Auro]

This is just sad but whatever.
Enjoy this little lesson about me

Eh I'm OK with Allo as well, maybe talk to Lilith rn?

[Auro]

Yup. And IME this year scum seem to be almost always lurking in active gamestates. A little sad to play with since the game's not as exciting but meh

Yup, just two out of Rex, Allo, Karnage and then Nom can self as she offered.

[Auro]

@Smarter do keep in mind that these people will continue to lurk off D2 as well, whereas Nom probably would be active.

[Auro]

Ok self now?

[Auro]

It's pro-town for Nom to self-hammer. If she is town, she should.

[Auro]

Karnage should, and if he doesn't either, I'll do it like ~half an hour before deadline. I'll be around.

[Auro]

I don't think that I will need to.

[Auro]

Karnage, I hope that you'll be able to devote more time towards the game now?

[Auro]

What was this obvious crumb, Skitter?

[Auro]

What was this obvious crumb, Skitter?

I thought you saw it and decided it wasn’t a soft? That’s the impression I got from our convo re: me not wanting to lynch Allomancer slot at end of D1

- Smarter

Well, I knew it was a risk to kill him, but wanted to pressure him considerably to make him less likely as an NK too. I remember saying I knew your reasons and am still proceeding, etc?

[Auro]

Yes I know, but when you asked skitter where the soft was it seems like you didn’t know.

How would pressuring him make him less likely to be NK?

1. Whether there was something else that made it obvious. Skitter said GL "likely" saw it, when GL blatantly responded to it with "better not be what I think it is" after that statement - a little fishy

2. Reflects that I don't believe the crumb, and also paints them as a very mislynchable candidate the next day: so if you're not *sure* as scum that they're TA, forcing their claim next day isn't a bad prospect, etc

[Auro]

1 - Are you saying that skitter only being “pretty sure” that GL saw the same crumb is fishy? Like, is it the degree of surety that you are questioning or something else?

2 - ? You were presenting Allo as a deadline lynch candidate - how does that put pressure on him without actually resulting in a lynch or hardclaim?

1. Looks a little fake
2. You guys would also need to consensus decide to lynch him and then actually begin voting for that and I have influence.

[Auro]

Theory question: would scum always go for a NL over ML? Like, is it better for them to have town!nom lynched D1 or no lynch at all?

- Smarter

With a living cop, a lynch.

Scum confident about Allo cop wouldn't really bother much about this, they'd just focus on looking town.

[Auro]

I have some reads but I just don't think they're worth much. I think TLDE, auro, and acryon are town. Eve is probably town too.

That leaves scum in skitter, GL, BB, and SR.

Gun to my head I'd say SR is town and BB idk. I'd prefer to lynch either skit/GL today

I agree with this analysis, almost to the word. I'm not confident beyond Smart and Acryon though.

[Auro]

Probably Eve or Auro.

I was deflating it?

[Auro]

What's interesting to me is GL's trajectory from being annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc, to *asking* to leash a cop on himself at the end of the day. Dangerous play unless 100% certain of Allo TA, but very very very good payoff.

[Auro]

I was planning to come in here with a fake guilty on someone

[Auro]

Didn't decide, lol.

[Auro]

I mean, are we suspecting him because we know that scum figured out the soft and we know that he figured out the soft? I don't really think revealing it would be detrimental to scum-him, since it's entirely possible that scum figured out the soft and didn't let on that they did.

I think I'm going deeper than that? Specifically how his confidence can affect his dayplay and trajectory towards the lynch and willingness to be in the bloc, etc.
I don't think many scum confidently choose to NK Allomancer.

[Auro]

Remove the confidence in Allo being a TA, and suddenly he's a crappy option to NK, no? Given at least a few very vocal players (like me) were pushing him and fine with his lynch.
It doesn't look like the kind of kill that most people as scum would typically make.

[Auro]

Note that I didn't say I expect he'd post more, but that he would be readable when he posts more. We should make him post.

[Auro]

I townread Eve
Eve, you think Skitter's scum?

[Auro]

Oh I see you voted there. Good.

[Auro]

I know it isn't. Don't think I necessarily need a vote to make my pushes , but yeah I'll be more active in a while.

I think {Acryon, Eve, Karnage, 1/0} are all town.
Molla is also town.
GL, perhaps.

PoE of {Skitter, Rex} then.

[Auro]

I still just haven't seen posts from that slot that inspire confidence.

Eve's response to this was hilarious

[Auro]

talk to me about your reads on eve and molla

When I look at her vote and reads progressions, they generally match (apart from the Molla and Auro push).
Molla's playing too reasonably and maybe that's reason to be cautious , but that's prolly just paranoia and his play otherwise has been towny.

[Auro]

I think he's town. Happy cake day!

[Auro]

Oh that's interesting. Good catch, him saying he needs to "relook" different things each time Eve was offered as a lynch candidate.

[Auro]

I hope I do see you in future games, Karnage!

[Auro]

Karnage is locktown now.

[Auro]

Except town faces a lot more inertia to overcome to solve; scum don't need to be as informed of the gamestate to make a posting effort. This is definitely not NAI

[Auro]

Not this game. Gamestate this game is pretty slow D2.

[Auro]

Noice!

[Auro]

Hm I think Titus is town for the slip

Let's lynch Skitter?

[Auro]

Auro and GL I love your hydra avatar

Aww, thanks ^_^ I love it too.

[Auro]

Wait, Titus, where did you read that he claimed TA?

[Auro]

@TLDNE: That there are 3 scum.

[Auro]

Okay then, help lynch scum today and I'll TR you

[Auro]

We screwed with D1 VCA a lot by controlling votes and wagons.

[Auro]

Hm I think Titus is town for the slip

Let's lynch Skitter?

auro is there anything you wanna talk about beyond 'hmm poe let's lynch skitter'?

Sell me on anyone else being scum?

[Auro]

There should be one scum apart from Karnage: who?

I townread him because his posting reflects an actual struggle to solve. Replacing out because he's unable to read the game is +town. This isn't a super fast game, D2 has been pretty slow - it really isn't much effort as scum, but I can totally understand why town!K thinks he's unable to do a good job.

[Auro]

Offer me a good candidate for the partner.

[Auro]

Who is in your locktown pool?

[Auro]

So you then understand that from my PoV Karnage isn't scum because there's no other candidate; therefore I will be advocating a lynch elsewhere?

[Auro]

Interesting that Skitter is on the same level as the other two to you.

[Auro]

i'm kinda baffled that you're townreading his posting tbh; it's kinda emblematic of scum being incapable of figuring out how to get into the game and thus forcing themselves to post once in a while
similarly, the rep-out looks exactly like the dozen rep-outs i've seen from scum who feel detached from the game and want to give the slot to someone else that they think can do a better job

Except

this is a slow ass game now, it's not moving very fast. Show me the set of rep-outs where scum felt detached from a snail-paced gamestate such as this one.
As scum he doesn't have to do much. As town he'd have to devote significant mental energy to actually solve and refine his reads (which he calls in 1343 as not worth much). As scum he would be in a gamestate where he just NK'd the Traffic Analyst.

Also, one important fact: If both scum were in townbloc, isn't it higher utility for them to keep the TA around?

[Auro]

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (6)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272), acryon (1286), SausasaurusRex (1289), nomnomnom (1300)
Karnage (2)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256)
Not Voting (3)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. nomnomnom has been lynched.

• Off-wagon:
  Allomancer
  , Auro, Karnage, GL, Skitter
  
• Benefit of NK-ing Allo if both scum in townbloc: Nothing, prevents one innocent claim. This is with very high confidence. Anything short would mean they could simply just get Allo to claim D2 with the pushes on him, and choose an obvtown target instead
  
• Benefit of NK-ing Allo if scum is in the copbloc: +++++++++++, a risk worth taking even if scum isn't
  very
  confident that Allo is the TA

[Auro]

What best case scenario? He confirms one person in the bloc? That isn't a big deal at all.
Allomancer was a highly suspected slot. He could have easily been run up to claim D2.
Nothing prevents scum from simply killing him D2.

[Auro]

Not when weighted with Allo's own standing and scum confidence in Allo being TA!

[Auro]

As for the VCA, you look at what scum would want to do and find scum fitting those parameters. Once more flips come in, you can say things like the top two wagons were town, therefore scum likely didn't care which flipped. That leads you to a series of theories and conclusions.

We were (or rather, specifically I was) controlling wagons and votes for the most part. I didn't leave much room for scum to manipulate their way around it during the day.
So VCA is moot.

[Auro]

Good luck going with that, Titus!
(Hint: You didn't notice that I and GL both - the latter which you were pushing - are in the copbloc and thus candidates resulting from my proposed argument)

[Auro]

no reasons to keep around someone

they can't push

who perpetually generates innos

Bolded wrong and you also assume very high Allo!cop read

[Auro]

Very high cop read + Both in townblocc: Eh, maybe kill to avoid *one* single dayphase IC
Not very high cop read + Both in townblocc: Safe anyway, let's kill some obvtown and let Allo claim in D2
--
Any % cop read + Both not in townblocc: Must take the chance and kill him

[Auro]

Given the priors, it's suggestive that the case below -- is likelier

[Auro]

They do.

They're not killing obvtown or town power players (of which the game has many).
They're killing a slot that will likely be run up D2, and be forced to claim, perhaps even just lynched.

[Auro]

Anyway, this is still consistent with your push of {Auro+Karnage}, both of us were off wagon lol

If you think I'm incorrect in locking out {2 scum in townbloc} give me candidate solves for 2 scum in townbloc.

[Auro]

So if you were Eve, and your partner was say BBMolla, you'd kill Allo over Skitter/GuiltyLion/Auro/Smart/Acryon because you thought there was a "decent" chance that Allo was cop but you're not -really- sure?

[Auro]

this isn't really how i'm thinking of the game tbh, and i don't think that limiting to solves to 2 people in townbloc makes much sense either really

I said candidate solves, not high confidence solves.
The argument gives higher credence to finding scum within the cop bloc even if TA died.
I believe Karnage is town.
Leaves you and GuiltyLion.
I think GL is likelier town than you are, if both aren't scum.

[Auro]

also i think trying to do a complete solve with no flips is silly

{Skitter+Titus}
{Skitter+GL}

[Auro]

I don't think you'd believe that as scum.

GL townreads 1/0 strongly, what do you feel about that?

[Auro]

i think you're wrong on both karnage and gl

Didn't you townread GL? Interesting, probably I remember wrong.
Why do you think I'm wrong about GL!town?

[Auro]

The tradeoff of one inno you can NK later is fine when you're not completely sure that slot is cop, but definitely know it'll probably be forced to claim in D2; a good trade-off for killing off an obvtown slot.

Plus the inno would be Auro/Skit/GL, like scum would wanna kill them sooner anyway if they were town lol

[Auro]

ok, so if i'm scum, what exactly am i arguing with you about here?

You'll need multiple mislynches to win the game. Locking the hunt to the pool based on likelihood is bad

[Auro]

In a vacuum I agree. When weighted with confidence in the suspected PR slot, the standing of the suspected spot, and the standings of other slots, it's suddenly not as good a decision as you say it is. Versus it's a great decision in the other case.

I mean, I do believe I have this game PoE'd also

[Auro]

@Auro, I think Allomancer towned up in his recent posts. Why is it that you still think he should be the lynch?

UNVOTE:

I don't think that I will need to.

Yeah...

So who put the brakes on the Allo wagon and in what manner did they do it? That's where I'm looking.

It was kind of me, but it was because I wanted more information before deciding on a lynch, not because I specifically didn’t want to lynch Allomancer.

Oooookay should've picked this up before

[Auro]

as is your reasoning for determining potential scumteams off of it

Affirming* not determining

[Auro]

Yeah.

[Auro]

If you're going to construct an attack from that, I will point out what weakens your attack greatly, and scumread you for not accounting for it

[Auro]

Based on? Detailz please.

Am I behaving differently from the Mini Normal I replaced into, where Pine and Bob were scum?

[Auro]

Yes. GL said "it better not be what I think it is", which means he definitely saw the soft. Saying that he "likely" saw it seemed a bit fishy. I know this is pedantic, but that's why "a bit"

[Auro]

Hmm indeed.

[Auro]

^Yup, that's what I was implying.

[Auro]

His buddy did and told him in the PT

[Auro]

There's a glaring inconsistency between his reasoning in the unvote post and his explanation for unvoting. The timing coincides with the soft.

Which is suggestive that he unvoted from the soft, and was making stuff up later.

[Auro]

why would he even deny it as scum anyways, he could have just like ... not protested it

Not protested what? Moving off when you see a TPR soft as scum, you don't see the benefits of that from a dayplay perspective?

also i think he didn't notice it and that just not wanting an early lynch is his mo

But he said Allo "towned up" and questioned me on why I wanted to lynch Allo. Not that we shouldn't lynch Allo early.

[Auro]

I'm talking about a decision point at N1, not relatively *right after the soft*.

Even then, my argument wasn't that they'd only not NK him because they'd try to mislynch him, it's that the gamestate seemed to head towards him claiming.

[Auro]

this was fun tho

Oh definitely!

[Auro]

That would prove my predecessor is town then. Scum don't try to mislynch a PR in this setup. It proves my predecessor was town and blind.

No, I mean, your predecessor quietly dropped the push after Allo softed… see 1623.

-Smart

Why isn't Titus getting more votes?

Oh c'mon GL don't tell me you don't see Skitter+Titus. Or at least Titus.

[Auro]

You ARE accepting that Karnage slot feels town now - that is common ground
1/0, Acryon near locktown reads - that is common ground

[Auro]

Yoohoo! What do you wanna talk about?
I'm surprised I am not locktown after an 8 hour read, though

[Auro]

Votes don't tell the whole story...

-Smart

Like do people believe Titus genuinely doesn't understand the points we're making?

That she genuinely has a thought process "Auro calls my VCA wrong (even though a bunch of others say we can't VCA) and is protecting his buddy GL"?

Funny how I'm protecting my "buddy" GL while GL's whining about my reluctance to townread him!

[Auro]

Why do you think you should be locktown?

Adoption and commitment to a strategy that would've screwed me over is the strongest personal reason. Prolly this is the only time I'll do it as town though

[Auro]

Defend Karnage: "Unfortunately you're his partner or Waking!"
"Defend" GL by trying to lynch somewhere else: "Oh you're buddies with GL!"

Why do you think you should be locktown?

Adoption and commitment to a strategy that would've screwed me over is the strongest personal reason. Prolly this is

the only time I'll do it as town though

So does this mean that you usually do it as scum? o.O

Lol consistently asking to be cop checked? No

[Auro]

@Smarter: I saw the soft, I was trying to make him appear like a lynch candidate nonetheless , I should've claimed TA myself

[Auro]

Yes

[Auro]

If you reduce the entirety of my play to "asked to be copped" then yes.

When you realize that I literally dictated how the cop should play, and strongly suggested that they roll a (weighted perhaps) die within three slots, and I am in the three slots, and realize that this implies a legitimate chance of my being caught from a D1 check when I had no reason to pursue any of this; as scum I deal in absolutes, I don't leave my fate to a high chance die roll.
(Btw started watching Kakegurui and I LOVE it)

You asked me why I think I should be locktown. That's one of my strongest reasons. Everything is WIFOM

[Auro]

Except I was advocating it waaaaaaaay before the dude softed. So I would have to be an incredibly cocky scumplayer, or got incredibly lucky.

[Auro]

Started reading around

8pm my time (2000 for non-americans)

, ended around 4-4:30am.

I lol'd

[Auro]

Nah I still think Acryon is town, the stuff that pinged for me early game pinged for you too, but other than then they have seemed town

Crayon is town, Atari is town, you're town, Eve's town, 1/0's town, I'm town, Guilty's meh town
{Skitter, Titus}

Titus' previous slot Rex basically scumslipped. Read 1623. His first post after the soft is to unvote while calling me out for continuing to push Allo, saying that Allo towned it up.
On D2 he justifies his unvote by saying he wanted more time and not because he didn't want to not lynch Allo (triple negative yaaaay). That's a lie.

[Auro]

Well that and Titus stubbornly pushing the whole VCA crap after everyone pointed out D1 VCA is moot.

Also, one thing to be checked: Conclusions from the "VCA" on Skitter and GuiltyLion should be similar is what I feel; have to actually look at the VCs. Noting here.

[Auro]

Skitter votes:

Nomnomnom(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->

Not Voting

(1.5)->GL(1.16)->

Nom

(1.20)->Not Voting(1.22)

GuiltyLion votes:

Auro(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->Allomancer(1.5)->

Not Voting

(1.18)->

Nom

(1.20)->Karnage(1.27)

Colored some of the common elements. Do tell me, Titus, why your VCA arguments for GuiltyLion scum do not apply to Skitter.

Auro if you are scum I will be very upset so please don’t be because obviously I can’t read you

[Auro]

@Atari:

@Auro, I think Allomancer towned up in his recent posts. Why is it that you still think he should be the lynch?

UNVOTE:

He was promoting that for slots in general. BUT, he made the quoted post SPECIFICALLY about Allomancer.
That he thought Allo towned up. And a question to me on why I still scumread the slot.

Like, you all are offering his general reasoning for D1 lynches as a counter-argument when he very specifically said he thought Allo towned up, and in D2 said he wanted more time but was OK with Allo lynch. You tell me - if you thought a slot "towned up" and unvoted them, would you call it "wanted more time, not that I wanted to defend them" or "I thought they were towny"?

[Auro]

Skitter though I'm unsure on. Is the argument for scum!skitter just PoE?

PoE, likelihood of existence of scum in the cop bloc, the correct cop kill looks like a scum!competent kill (this is a weaker reason), her associations with Titus.

Skitter didn't even attempt to understand the implications of Rex's slip, while Smart immediately picked up on it when I pointed it out; then Skit goes on to soft defend it.
Titus

should

be concluding from VCA that Skitter is around on the same level of GL; yet tunnels on GL, and attacks me when I push Skit, while offering nothing on Skit IIRC

[Auro]

@GuiltyLion You should focus a little on building consensus about 1/0 with Skitter, tbh

[Auro]

also, I see your points about Skit's associative with Saus/Titus today being kinda meh, but do you think Skit is that sloppy as scum? Like she pretty explicitly called people out for voting Saus when he wasn't playing the game, and has been kinda casually defending him a lot today, I don't think she'd feel the need to go all in to defend him here.

What's the counter-play if Skitter is partners with Titus?

[Auro]

What VCs weren't included? The arrows indicate vote changes, and I fail to see how you didn't get that. Skitter was "Not Voting" from 1.5 to 1.16 for example.

LOL how is Skitter's posting today obvtown? Go ahead and explain, I'll wait.

[Auro]

...What? I show a progression of votes from 1.1 to the end of day one, then you just blatantly say I didn't include any of them?

Yeah sure show me how the wagon positioning is indicative in the VCs, lol. You do throw a lot of these words, but fail to actually explain how they work. I can also say wagon positioning is key and Skitter is scum but GL is obvtown from the VCA. What's the difference in our claims?

[Auro]

In the VCs you quoted:

Skitter first vote in 1.1, 1.16.
GuiltyLion first vote in 1.1, 1.23

GL was literally the first vote in equally as much wagons as Skit from the ones you quoted here. Hardly sheepy at all

[Auro]

Suddenly Skitter is suspect enough to be copped.

Citation needed.

please cop lynch Karnage or Me if this flips green, not Skit

[Auro]

@GuiltyLion You should focus a little on building consensus about 1/0 with Skitter, tbh

And vice versa, actually. Why do you think this is out of skitter's scumrange?

-Smart

I think Skitter's scum, I'm asking GL to form consensus with her about your slot - how does that imply I think Skit's town?

[Auro]

Except for EoD 1, Skitter has been front and center on each wagon she pushes. That's a leader unafraid of consequences.

Fake scumposting

[Auro]

Aurora suspects GL but doesn't push him either.

Oh, if I had a triple dayvig, I'd just nuke the three of you.
I can only pick one, so I pick Skitter/you over GL.

[Auro]

This is a scum evolution.

It's a town evolution nailing scum, from the scummy scumposts they scumposted during the course of my town evolution!

[Auro]

skitter Titus

acryon

game solved

[Auro]

I can teach you VCA Eve. Look at where Auro's voting, sheep that, that's all

:3

[Auro]

VOTE: Titus

There ya go

[Auro]

Oh look, Titus thinks Eve could be scum but isn't really pushing her!

[Auro]

Fair enough

[Auro]

But then if your "top two" lynches are both town then I'd have the right to suspect you as buddies with anyone there are other factors too is what I mean

[Auro]

I'll let GL answer that himself, let's see how this goes

[Auro]

My clear focus today is getting Skitter/Titus lynched.

[Auro]

His second post here suddenly adds me into his PoE

Yeah after your posting in the previous page

[Auro]

GL where you at right now?

[Auro]

Help me see Skitter town with what's AI from her.

[Auro]

I don't believe she defends her partner Rex in the way that she did, and also if she is partnered with Rex, then why does she continue to defend against the 'slip' while then also arguing repeatedly with Titus in the very same sequence of catchup posts?

What's the counterplay when they see town using the slip as a golden ticket to vote Titus?

[Auro]

Very hard to push.

I was calling out a Skitter+Titus scumteam before the slip, I doubt bussing is the best strategy here

[Auro]

They're not convincing arguments for her being scum, rather that these are null and not town indicative.

I'm neutral over who's lynched first.

[Auro]

Still Skitter via the earlier argument of scum being in the cop bloc. Apart from me there was Karnage, you and Skit; Skit would be my choice here.

While I do agree you're playing to town meta in multiple ways, I have some paranoia due to your posturing end of D1 (asking to leash to you/Karnage) and a few other reasons that don't come to mind right now.

If both town were in the townbloc, then who? Molla+Eve? Idk, I townread everyone else in it. That would be a difficult re-evaluation.

[Auro]

Auro what would you think if Titus flips town

It's useful to sort this out anyway because I could very well be conf-biased. Why would Eve be scum if Titus is town? I don't see it.

[Auro]

I'll be V/LA for a couple of days, will appear here sparsely probably.

[Auro]

UNVOTE:

[Auro]

being aware of one's own capabilities isn't a bad thing

[Auro]

something feels off there and I don't think it's TvT.

Try putting it into words.

[Auro]

Assume I am town, then think from my perspective what in my interactions with GL should show that he is scum, then vice-versa

[Auro]

Meta is Garbage is Garbage

When did this become a thing? I presume it came out as a reaction to the giant wave a few years back of everyone doing nothing but meta reads (which was also a bit daft) but I'd like to at least discuss some of my issues with the so-called meta issue that I see a lot.

First off, the 'people can change their meta' argument. To that I say, yes, and? People (scum) can game *any and every tell in the book* that's kind of the point of being good scum, doing whatever you can to appear town. Insomuch as I have a scum meta, it is to have it look as much like my town meta as possible, so, yeah, naturally players can and will and should do whatever they can to match metas, just as they should do it to affect any possible tell around. So the idea that scum will attempt to manipulate a tell applies equally across all tells, yeah? Unless the tell is actually objective (and the only ones I've personally found like that tend to be mechanic and voting based - so...y'know, stuff like setup spec and VCA that people *also* whine about. So, first off, this is a dumb complaint when someone uses meta as a tell.

"Meta is garbage!" This is another I hear a lot. I presume people say this because they've seen meta be wrong. Okay, whoop-de-doo, I'm pretty sure I've seen every tell under the sun be wrong. The real question is simply how well supported/researched is the meta being used. Is it from one game? Then maybe it's garbage. Is it from a five year history and 10+ games? Then I'd be awfully willing to buy it (and generally have never experienced people doing a drastic meta shift in some random game to break their meta and own face). So, once again, this makes meta...wait for it...basically like every tell out there.

"I change my meta every game, so I can't be meta'ed" I would suggest this implies you're a bad player, unless your claim is all town game styles are equally effective (and if you think that I'd love to discuss your research and conclusions). I also...well, kinda don't believe this, and even if it is exactly true - then that's your meta, and theoretically tells could be drawn from it even then.

So, basically, stop random attacking meta for empty reasons. If you have an issue with a meta case, describe them. If you can't, then it's probably a perfectly valid case as far as the style the case-maker has chosen.

Also, saying you hate meta is your meta - change it

Also leaving this here

[Auro]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Thor665

[Auro]

You indicated "meh-town" a while back, but recent posts seem to imply you're stronger on that read?

I usually point out bad logic regardless of my read on the person it's applied upon.

[Auro]

It's never entirely clear how you're feeling on him.

"Scum in Skitter/Titus, otherwise I think GL"

How is that not clear enough? What do you want, like percentages or something?

[Auro]

Acryon: "I'll ignore the walls where Auro's pushing GL pretty hard, then say he's never really pushing GL!"

[Auro]

VOTE: Crayon

[Auro]

Auro what would you think if Titus flips town

It's useful to sort this out anyway because I could very well be conf-biased.

Why would Eve be scum if Titus is town? I don't see it.

Yes... I could be wrong. There are quite a few indicators that GL is town, and some important ones that GL is scum. I am not sure.
That does not mean I can't work with him. That doesn't mean I can't try to achieve consensus. If he's scum, and he's trying to mislead me, this will give me a small chance to detect it. If he's town,

great

, we're working together and he's a capable scumhunter who's also involved enough in the game.

Titus, apologies for my cheeky posts (unless you are amused by them, it's bad form even if you are scum).

GL, Titus' last post is towny. I'll still have to reconcile the weightage I'm assigning to the Rex slip (I disagreed with Skitter's case against it).

"Pushing him" while your vote sat on Eve the whole time. I know you already commented on this, but again that's a confusing position.

I belong to the school of thought that a vote isn't necessarily required to push someone. A vote is a tool, yes, but I believe my pushes are equally effective even if I'm not voting the person.
Do you think the person I'm pushing thinks, "oh, so they're not voting me, I guess their posts pushing me don't mean much"?
Wagon building is a different matter.

If you

still

don't see why your stances are unclear, i"ll help you with these posts from you 2 posts apart.

"Scum in Skitter/Titus, otherwise I think GL"

VOTE: Crayon

The quoted was what I was saying earlier, which seems pretty clear, which somehow you found unclear.
The vote is a result of your recent posting, my stance on Titus shifting, and my beginning to doubt my earlier evaluation of you.

[Auro]

a) it was not a slip, it made sense given his general approach to the game; also i'm not soft-defending it, i'm hard-defending it, this is a silly reason to push the slot
b) none of these are really reasons to scumread me in particular either beyond 'i think that there's competent scum out there'. like beyond poe / my disagreeing about my slip why am i scum here?

To a), note that he volunteered to answer it and wasn't questioned directly. This means he had enough awareness to remember that he "derailed" the Allo wagon post slip (and he unvoted while he was the only vote there, mind). If he remembered this much, he should also accurately remember the reasons he unvoted for (that he thought Allo townposted) versus what he said (wanted more time), right? Doesn't it feel a bit icky? I feel like {remember the reason for unvoting} and {remember that he unvoted} should be strongly tied.

To b), yes. Beyond PoE/your defense of the slip/your associations with Titus scum, I also have the argument about cop lynch priors/confidence/competence, and beyond that... not much. There's your 1/0 read which I find problematic; under the assumption that most of my townreads were correct at that point of time and were difficult lynches you'd have to carve out a winpath (which is slightly easier if you establish suspicion on slots you plan to lynch in advance, rather than when it's too late). Beyond that? Nothing much. I don't think you're the kind of scum player I'd catch for "being scummy" in the classical sense of it.

[Auro]

I agree with this, and the part where your push lacks teeth is in regards to wagon building. Votes follow votes a lot more often than they follow vote-less pushes.

Personal reactions to verbal pushes are a different from wagon pushes.
Contextually one thing can hold more significance than the other.

As to your latter part, I thought it was implied from the vote

[Auro]

Below. I need to do a good amount of re-evaluation, my confidences are low for the majority of reads at this point.

[Auro]

auro ... i'm not super liking his push on me tbh. i also feel like most of his day1 town posting revolved around the cop but that now that that's gone his like 'hook' for how he's approaching the game has become rather flat.
i'm kinda baffled how he thinks that me/titus are partners here, and i'm not sure why he isn't really pushing me but rather talking around me and calling me scum without doing much about it; his interactions with you are kinda nitpicky and retreading the same ground over and over again; his switch to acryon here is bad

This is a surprisingly bad case.
1. Reducing my D1 play to a "hook" while ignoring the pushes and reads I made
2. Ignoring that I'm not the only person who thinks you have partner equity with Titus, which should obviously stem from hard defense of each other - this is basic theory
3. Ignoring my post where I outlined my approach towards you, and another about <pushes vs votes>
4. Ignoring that I said I'm ambivalent to who got lynched between the two of you,
5. Ignoring that I said I needed to re-evaluate, and failing to see the value in the timing of my Crayon vote: you think one should only be voting their top scumread all the time?

Seriously, Skitter?

[Auro]

I love how I was advocating and committing to a strategy that gave me high chances of being copped from the start - so you're saying, Skitter, that I'm scum who was cleverly trying a risky WIFOM stunt and just got massively lucky that Allo softed?

[Auro]

and eve i'm scumreading

I'm curious to see what you come up for this read. Scumcase pl0x

[Auro]

If I can't convince GL is scum,

It's just that no one's ever going to be convinced by D1 VCA reasons, as none of us believe VCA is really applicable, and we were directly influencing GL's vote especially.

There should be other incriminating content if you're confident he's scum: show that? Or if you have already, please restate/quote.

[Auro]

i will admit that that read largely comes from rex

Oh, also do explain what in Rex's was AI and towny, not null at best.

[Auro]

GL, Titus' last post is towny. I'll still have to reconcile the weightage I'm assigning to the Rex slip (I disagreed with Skitter's case against it).

@Eve.

[Auro]

Smart, you'll have to help me find the correct direction.

[Auro]

Oh you mean the townslip. That's a low-reliability slip

[Auro]

I mean, that is sorta the definition of a "slip", no?
Titus' post about how once she's lynched to follow XYZ lynches. I don't really think her VCA application is scummy. She feels similar to Doubles Mafia (do ISO her there).

For a while assume she's town and let's solve?

[Auro]

I don't think it's beyond Skittitus to play opposite to the classical association meta especially if Titus is a "sure lynch".

I'm not talking about capabilities, but tone and attitude when I mention Doubles.

[Auro]

What do you make of Skitter's case on me?

[Auro]

Well, the ordering suggests I'm second likeliest scum after Eve
I'm only interested in the merits of her thoughts themselves, not the motivations behind the push, though.

It's nice that I have two sheep votes hehehh.

[Auro]

Atari, while you're here - assume Crayon is town, then what do you think the solve would be?

[Auro]

I'll tell y'all when I'm sure on a read