Newbie 2031 - The Wild Hunt (End!)

[Mundivore]

VOTE: Noraa

Faeries can hold grudges, right? This feels like a grudge.

[Mundivore]

What's up with all the fairy talk?

VOTE: ClarkBar

Sus as hell

[Mundivore]

What's up with all the fairy talk?

Are you telling us that you

don't

live in the depths of an enchanted forest?

Noraa crumbing enchanted forest dweller here, seems pretty pro-town

Oh and the fairy stuff is just the flavor fferyllt is using and we were playing along.

Revealing secrets of the fae seems very anti-town.

VOTE: Satisfaction.

[Mundivore]

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

VOTE: Bluebell For Feryland!

That sounds a bit robotic/awkward to me. This is Satisfaction's first game, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Does sound like it could be a noob scum, I'd be suspicious if it wasn't his first game.

Mundivore, what are your thoughts on this?

Totally NAI. I don't think a person who would say 'I am town aligned' in their first post as scum

wouldn't

say it if they were town.

Personally, I find this post is more AI to Arthur than it is Satisfaction. Maybe feels like fishing for an easy wagon. Very weak though. Measuring scummieness versus townieness on a scale from -100 to 100, I'd say I currently put Arthur at -2.

[Mundivore]

I think there's at least a 25% chance that both the scum are in this current wagon. It came together really quickly and in my experience scum doesn't usually like to hammer.

Further, I think that in the world that both scum are already on the wagon, it's probably Egix and Arthur about 45% of the time versus Egix and Not Known about 40% of the time.

Some scum-team analysis: I think that Satisfaction/Not Known is an impossible scum team. If one is scum, the other is town. I think that Arthur and Not Known are a very unlikely scum team: Not Known is in the SE slot and probably wouldn't sheep their scumbuddy so readily.

[Mundivore]

UNVOTE: Satisfaction.

There's a case to say that I should leave my vote where it is, but cutting day one too short could be pretty bad for town. I also get town vibes out of Satisfaction.

[Mundivore]

I think Arthur is a scum as for who the buddy is, I'm not sure

I think scum!Arthur is pretty likely. Put some pressure on with me?

VOTE: ArthurConyl

[Mundivore]

UNVOTE: Noraa

reads, ordered from towniest to scumiest within lists--

Town:
Satisfaction
Mundivore

Null:
ClarkBar
Bluebell
Not Known 15
Noraa
Egix96

Scum:
ArthurConyl

This is page six of the game so I don't have strong reads right now I'm feeling pretty towny on Satisfaction. It sucks to have so many null reads because that's not super helpful. But I want my thoughts out there regardless.

I was about to vote Arthur, but that would put him at E-1. I didn't realize that he had quite that many votes, so I assume that others might not realize as well, so this seems like a situation where it would be easy for someone to accidentally hammer. I'll leave it at

FoS: ArthurConyl

.

Spoiler:

Also Arthur please don't self vote!

Please explain your reasoning for Arthur as scum.

[Mundivore]

Hey folks. I've been keeping up with the thread, but a bit busy/depressed and so haven't been posting much. Lot happened, so I'm going to respond to the new things that I found were pertinent.

I think there's at least a 25% chance that both the scum are in this current wagon. It came together really quickly and in my experience scum doesn't usually like to hammer.

I do love percentage talk, but I don't engage in it. I'm a gut guy. I look at interactions and behavior and pursue players and cases if something sticks out to me that I want to explore. That said, I do suspect that at least one scum may have been on Satisfation's wagon (provided he is town). Both might be asking a bit much.

I mean, I'm a mathematician, so I'm just expressing my gut feelings in terms of percentages. It's how I think. I agree with your sentiment.

Usually when people start getting into real probability talk with actual statistics, it's because they're scum. Trying to convince town that something is good for town on average because the mathematics make it town-favored on average is usually a scum-tell. This is because scum have advanced knowledge of the game: they can safely perform 'mathematically town' actions over and over again so long as they don't actually elim a scumbuddy, because for them, killing a person never has a probabilistic outcome on whether town or scum wins. They know the outcome for certain.

Since Clark is doing a reread of everyone, I'm going to follow his example and do the same.

Bluebell, ClarkBar, Egix:

Please post more. You guys only have a few posts, though I appreciate that Clark is trying to catch up. However weird/wonderful your posts are, it will generate content and be pro-town in the long run. I can barely read anything off these guys.

Fferyllt: Definitely scum.

@Mundivore:

Can you explain this? I'm not at all experienced with scum team/wagon analysis.

Spoiler:

I think there's at least a 25% chance that both the scum are in this current wagon. It came together really quickly and in my experience scum doesn't usually like to hammer.

Further, I think that in the world that both scum are already on the wagon, it's probably Egix and Arthur about 45% of the time versus Egix and Not Known about 40% of the time.

Some scum-team analysis: I think that Satisfaction/Not Known is an impossible scum team. If one is scum, the other is town. I think that Arthur and Not Known are a very unlikely scum team: Not Known is in the SE slot and probably wouldn't sheep their scumbuddy so readily.

Yeah, sure. The first two lines are my gut feelings / intuition / experience talking. Usually when a wagon comes together really quickly, it's because of scum. Scum are more inclined to vote for people who already have votes on them than to start their own wagons, because more votes on one person makes it easier for a mislim to happen or easier for them to threaten a hammer and force out info on power roles. When a wagon comes together

super

quickly, it's usually because of both scum being on the wagon. I said 25% chance of both scum being on the Satisfaction wagon because it came together quite quickly, but not super quickly. If I were to break my gut feeling down more concretely, I'd say there's probably a 25% chance of both scum having been on that wagon, a 60% chance of one scum being on it, and a 15% chance that all four were townies.

The second line is less thought-through: just the possible scum-teams that it could be in the world where both of the scum were on that wagon. Very hypothetical, very hunchy.

After this you unvoted Satisfaction in post #102, saying that Satisfaction had "town vibes." Can you explain the "town vibes" you felt?

Satisfaction gave a note-dump, which is fairly pro-town. More important to that for me, though, was the prior component of me having a strong suspicion that there was scum on the Satisfaction wagon. If we live in the world of scum!Satisfaction, their scumbuddy probably wouldn't hop onto that wagon so aggressively, it was an RVS wagon without any thought and so

not

hopping on the wagon is totally justifiable (by town or by scum). No reason to risk interaction like that if you're Satisfaction's scumbuddy.

The third line contains the most useful and definite analysis. Keeping track of who can be scumbuddies with who is a great way to narrow down scum. Basically Not Known wouldn't just slap Satisfaction with E-1 (or E-2, even if we take them at their word that they missed one of the votes). Scumteam analysis is the sort of thing that's pretty reliable compared to most scumhunting, and its value accumulates as the game goes on. Knowing that two or three scumteams are impossible isn't super useful early (when, such as right now, there are 36 possible scumteams) but as the number of people narrows, the number of viable scumteams keeps shrinking. As long as the scum haven't tried any crazy gambits, this is the easiest way to find scum in lategame (IMO).

So, for instance, I'm pretty comfortable saying that Satisfaction can't be scumteam with you or Not Known, and also that Not Known probably can't be scumteam with you (the probable in this case referring to the situation where Not Known legitimately missed your vote even when you were both scum... but I rate that at low odds).

As long as my reasons for determining that a scumteam is impossible or not are solid enough, then I can use it to intuit new information as the game goes on. For instance, say we end up eliminating Satisfaction today after all. Say Satisfaction flips scum. Then, I'd have fairly concrete reasons to believe that both you and Not Known were town. One townie would die at night, and presuming that townie wasn't me, you, or Not Known, then

this analysis alone

allows me to redirect my scumhunting efforts away from three out of seven people remaining.

Then there's this:

Spoiler:

I think Arthur is a scum as for who the buddy is, I'm not sure

I think scum!Arthur is pretty likely. Put some pressure on with me?

VOTE: ArthurConyl

Geez, this one. I'm not sure how I overlooked this post before, but it's giving me very scum signs. Noraa never really gave a good reason for scumreading me, except for him saying I was starting all the wagons. Which I'm not. If a town player were voting someone, I would expect to hear at least a reason or some thoughts. If they were sheeping like NK15, at least say you agree with someone, etc. You did neither and you also tried to fish for support. Kickstarting my wagon.

Here, I could tell Noraa was already scum-reading you, and figured I'd capitalize on it by putting some pressure on you. I wanted to see how your reaction felt, so I'd have a better idea of your alignment. As for why I thought there was a decent chance you were scum, it's just that I feel second vote and third vote are the scummiest positions on an RVS wagon. Scum wants to look like an early arrival, not one of the primary pressuring players. They prefer to leave reasonable room to defer attention.

Also, I disliked your #93—calling out suspicious behavior and then not acting upon it rubs me the wrong way. Threatening a scumread rather than stating it, also feels like a bit of a scumslip. Townies have reads on everyone. They scumread people who are fishy and townread people who aren't. Threatening a scumread conflates the purpose of a person's read, and their vote. You meant to communicate, 'I may try to get people to vote for you' and used the phrase 'scumread' to do it. It's certainly something town (especially new town) could do, but it still stood out to me, which in my mind was enough to start a vote. Voting for someone gets them to be a lot more active, and gives you more material to work with as far as investigating them.

Perhaps the most worryingly, the next post is:

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: Noraa

reads, ordered from towniest to scumiest within lists--

Town:
Satisfaction
Mundivore

Null:
ClarkBar
Bluebell
Not Known 15
Noraa
Egix96

Scum:
ArthurConyl

This is page six of the game so I don't have strong reads right now I'm feeling pretty towny on Satisfaction. It sucks to have so many null reads because that's not super helpful. But I want my thoughts out there regardless.

I was about to vote Arthur, but that would put him at E-1. I didn't realize that he had quite that many votes, so I assume that others might not realize as well, so this seems like a situation where it would be easy for someone to accidentally hammer. I'll leave it at

FoS: ArthurConyl

.

Also Arthur please don't self vote!

Please explain your reasoning for Arthur as scum.

I mean what? You just voted for me without any reason and now you're asking him for his reasoning? Bruh. You're looking a lot like scum lurking and posting fluff.

I feel like Mundivore has a moderate chance of being scum. Wouldn't be upset if we lynched him.

Hm. I don't know if the response feels like town!Arthur.

I didn't explain my reasoning because I hadn't yet been asked. It's safe to assume most votes are for information gathering at this stage of the game, but you're kind of out of hand dismissing my contributions as 'fluff' and trying to call me out for hypocrisy. Pathos arguments aren't innately scummy, but they also aren't super useful for finding scum.

I have a question for town!Arthur. How much do you think your scum read on me is due to the effect of OMGUS—essentially, reading me as scum because I'm putting voting pressure on the one person you know is definitely town—and how much do you think can be attributed to external factors? Other than my vote on you, which you don't like, why do you think that I am scum?

[Mundivore]

Sorry for the wall of text.

Also, I made a mistake putting this post together—the line which starts with "The third line" and then going down to the next quote is mispositioned. That line is supposed to start directly after the line which starts with "The second line."

Which is amusing and frustrating.

Is it acceptable to edit a post for clarity's sake? I can't see an edit button, so I presume not. It does seem like a feature that shouldn't be allowed for game balance's sake.

[Mundivore]

What makes you think I was fishing for support?

Maybe I didn't explain it well enough. Let's step through it.

Emphasis mine, numbers inserted:

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

VOTE: Bluebell For Feryland!

1)

That sounds a bit robotic/awkward to me.

2)

This is Satisfaction's first game, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

3)

Does sound like it could be a noob scum,

4)

I'd be suspicious if it wasn't his first game.

1) Shade
2) Backing off
3) Shade
4) Backing off

@Noraa

Maybe try reading it again? xD "Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I an town-aligned. Good luck and have fun."

5)

Doesn't it sound odd to you? No offence, it sounds like an automated message.

6)

People are hardly ever that formal on the internet and certainly not on here.

5) Polling for support.
6) Shade

Yeah I agree with you there,

7)

scum wouldn't be that obvious.

8)

The post is NAI, but it's

9)

just something to think about. Do you know anyone here?

7) Backing off
8) paraphrasing: "Oh I'm just kidding, none of this matters..."
9) "... oh but maybe we should still keep it in mind"

Essentially you made no claim here you stick to. It was wishy washy. All it really did was associate my name with scum and leave you room to back up and say:

I also explained that

10)

I was trying to generate discussion and clearly stated in my original post that

11)

it was probably NAI. If anything, it feels more like you're trying to start a wagon on me for arbitary reasons.

FoS Satisfaction

10) paraphrasing: "I'm just town doing town things."
11) paraphrasing: "Remember when I said it didn't really matter?" Remember the other half of that sentence?

---

Just for the record, I'm old.

Back in my day

people were plenty formal on the internet. I also work in tech where people are similarly formal all day, on the internet. All of that said, my intro was purposefully stilted. You and Egix chomped down on it hard. We are past the point of this wagon (the wagon on me) generating information and unless you actually think I'm scum because of the way I introduced myself in the second post of the game I think it's time to move on.

I'm here to win the game, not to win the day. Let's go. Thanks for the reads.

Bluebell

is next.

Oh, that's good.

[Mundivore]

Take care of yourself Mundivore.

I'm doing my best.

[Mundivore]

Satisfaction, can you elaborate on your suspicion of Bluebell? Or are you just trying to get them to be active?

[Mundivore]

107: Yuck.

What's the problem with that post?

Having the suggestion of a civil tone being shot down like that rubs me the wrong way. Calling D1 accusations "low-key stupid" doesn't serve any purpose. And again, Noraa asking people to refrain from accusing of her of anything upsets me. It's a shame that she replaced out because this is a player that I'd like to push a little. There's a highly reactive and slightly threatening tone to some of her posting that strikes me as very anti-town. "Don't do this I hate this. This accusation is stupid" etc.

I just played my last game with Noraa. I think she's kind of just like that... she's very new to mafia and hasn't developed a lot of the intuitions that feel obvious after some experience.

Since then, Mundivore hasn't posted, so the townread there is getting weaker.

I have come to learn that activity levels are not AI. These games can go for a while, and there will be peaks and valleys in activity. In my experience this stage we are in is the quietest. RVS is over, and usually there a a number of replacements. Relatively few so far in this game. RL issues can play a role too. If a lack of activity is upsetting anyone I will assure them that things

will

get moving. Sometimes it takes a single post to spark a significant change in the pace of the game.

@Redados, why would a lack of activity increase the chances of Mundivore being scum?

I don't think it's so much that activity levels is super AI so much as it is that 'not interrupting town while they're screwing up' is a strong strategy. Throwing a little shade on someone is a good way to get them to come out of their hidey-holes, and the less time they spend it hidey-holes the easier it is to get them caught in things.

It's good to be back in feryland. Though I feel less elven this time

Welcome, welcome. I read a lot of your 'catching up to the thread' posts. In regards to my early, minor suspicion of Arthur, I left my vote on Satisfaction because you tend to get the most valuable / provable information regarding players with a large number of votes on them. That's also why I'm leaving my vote on Arthur: not only am I receiving interesting output from Arthur in response to the vote, but seeing who does and doesn't join my wagon is something I find valuable.

Could you elaborate some more on Not Known? I'm low-key scumreading them right now and I'm not sure how much of it is because of #163 contrasting with my townread on Satisfaction.

Also, can you talk some more on why you find ClarkBar scummy?

[Mundivore]

I finished Doggos last night. I have a gut feeling that there is something relevant about Noraa's meta but I just haven't pieced it together yet.

I just played my last game with Noraa. I think she's kind of just like that... she's very new to mafia and hasn't developed a lot of the intuitions that feel obvious after some experience.

Could you sum up Noraa's strategy in Doggos in a sentence or two? I'm interested in your perspective.

IMO, she's too green to have much of an established strategy. She's capable of canny observations but she primarily deals in fluff.

[Mundivore]

Arthur: Mafia
--grasping at straws, overly defensive, changing reasons/ excuses, pressure already being applied by others

Satisfaction and Redados: Town --seem to be honestly investigating, demonstrating reasoning, don't seem to be hiding or else are super tricky. Both very encouraging, helpful but of course have me pocketed (can we say that now?) with avatar and posting mechanics help, haha

Clarkbar: ?
--pursuing game as his time permits, encouraging and educational

Egix96: ?
--Vague. Is it due to his self analysis of play style being correct? Vote to apply some pressure.

Mundivore: Town
--Limited info

t

he

y

gives leans toward analysis and mafia hunting

NotKnown15: ?
--Very Vague, ask questions when I can keep up to press for info.

Made a correction in bold, don't like to be a prick about it but I do care.

That aside, this is very much a 'vibes' post. I'd like to see Blue participate more in discussion before developing strong opinions on her alignment. My scum-o-meter is pinging mild off her, ~-6. Not nearly as strong a reading as I have on some other folks. Obviously my preferred elim target this instant is Arthur, but right now, I'm wrestling with some very scummy feelings I'm getting from Red... but I can't put a finger why I have the suspicions. I got these same vibes from Red when he was town in Doggos, maybe it's a playstyle thing, but I'm going to have to do another re-read of the thread before I can resolve what my feelings are on him.

Still not moving my vote from Arthur. I'd like to see a response to that question I asked him.

I think there's at least a 25% chance that both the scum are in this current wagon. It came together really quickly and in my experience scum doesn't usually like to hammer.

Further, I think that in the world that both scum are already on the wagon, it's probably Egix and Arthur about 45% of the time versus Egix and Not Known about 40% of the time.

Some scum-team analysis: I think that Satisfaction/Not Known is an impossible scum team. If one is scum, the other is town. I think that Arthur and Not Known are a very unlikely scum team: Not Known is in the SE slot and probably wouldn't sheep their scumbuddy so readily.

I think Arthur is a scum as for who the buddy is, I'm not sure

I think scum!Arthur is pretty likely. Put some pressure on with me?

VOTE: ArthurConyl

Looking back at this, I'm a bit surprised you didn't vote me, considering what you wrote. What would you have done, had Noraa not said anything?

Sorry, this slipped by me, thanks for pointing it out.

I probably still would have voted for Arthur. I think you've been less scummy overall so far, it's just the sort of scenario where

if

there are two scum on the wagon, you're one of them. (Or, I guess I could be, but certainly not from my perspective.) The caveat is that even though I think there's a chance that there are two scum on the early Satisfaction wagon, one scum makes more sense to me.

[Mundivore]

But regarding your request, and especially rereading Redados' reactions to Noraa, I say he is a consistently kind and careful companion, dedicated to and delighting in the Great Scummy Hunt, be he imp or be he guardian of the good. We will not divine any deeper devices at this time and may simply benefit from his pro-town analyses, remembering that pro-town activities do not necessarily equal a true townie identity. (#187)

Apologies to take a butter knife to your nonchalance but, alas, we are here to murder the scums.

The tone of your post sounds like you think red is pocketing scum or we are all giving him too easy a pass. Why?

This is my second game with Red. I think Red just has 'resting pocket tone.' I've been trying to figure out why my gut says he's scummy this game and so far that's the only thing I can think of, rather than anything solid.

[Mundivore]

Just did a light re-read, with a focus on Red. I can only find one thing he's done that seems scummy.

My current favorite scumpairs are Satisfaction/Redados or NK15/Arthur.

[Mundivore]

Er, more like one-and-a-half. Sorry Red.

I think the bigger takeaway of my re-read is that I'm most interested in elimming one of Arthur and Satisfaction today. They've had the most interesting interactions with other players, and there's an interesting scumcase on each of them.

[Mundivore]

just for the jury: shelly has beat me as scum twice in like, the last month i think? so we are now engaged in a blood feud. just without the blood.

Bloodless blood feuds can be made bloody, you just need to arrange a meet-up.

Spoiler: quotewall

secrets

assuming this is serious but banterous voting, I like Mundivore off pg1-2, slightly like redados and feel iffy about clarkbar.

Don't try shading me because I have the full indestructible town energy

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

VOTE: Bluebell For Feryland!

That sounds a bit robotic/awkward to me. This is Satisfaction's first game, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Does sound like it could be a noob scum, I'd be suspicious if it wasn't his first game.

I feel like I should have an opinion on this comment and the way they back down from it shortly after. But if I did I'd be pretending and I'm too cool to pretend. So let's just say this is an interesting callout and I don't think they're scum together.

"But if I did I'd be pretending" sounds self aware, +3 scumpoints

Okay, catching up and starting. My apologies. And I still have to figure out an avatar. My townly pet rabbit had townista surgery and has needed a lot of townish care. So just getting to this right town, I mean right now. I guess I'll leave my affiliation a mystery. But it behooves me to say that Bluebell isn't such a silly name for Feryland. "Clarkbar" on the other hand... hmm.
VOTE: Clarkbar

This is so wholesome. Bluebell why did you pick Clark to vote here? It doesn't feel random

why are you prodding someone after their RANDOM voting stage vote

Putting out your reads at E-1 is something you can expect from scum(but also from town). However, they have

found

too many things there. At this point, it is likely scum trying to find things to make comments about nearly everyone.
What's worse is that all they have posting since leaving E-1 is posting fluff. Looks like scum being relieved from having been at E-1 and assuming their wagon breaks down.
VOTE: Satisfaction
This is scum.

Vote it out.

i'm pretty lukewarm on this read, but i think nk15 believes it

why do you think nk15 believes a super early E-1

Welcome TW, happy to be playing with you again.

you too my friend <3


quick lazy reads off read-up
town: {tw}
townread: {reda}
townlean: {mundi, sati, maybe nk15? i don't know help}
null: {egix, bbellz}
scumlean: {arthur, clark}

i'm p comfortable keeping my vote on arthur for the momentttttt

worsty despite shading clark (me) why do you never vote it? thats straight out weird

I think I've seen two different people say that if one of us is scum, the other probably isn't (or maybe you, twice? I'd have to check).

If I haven't said this, I agree. I also think you're more likely both-town before both-scum.

That said, I'm just as wary that it's town versus town. If so, would that make an elim between us less informative?

eh, eliminations are rarely good because they're informative.
they're good because they're on scum, or townies who were distracting enough that we'd need to kill them to elim scum.

If I was under a hammer right now you wouldn't hear me screaming, "Get Arthur tomorrow after I flip town!"

i can see this. you're solving arthur.

The post that started our whole beef could have just as easily been an eager Arthur wanting to contribute to a game that had just started, but not feeling very confident, as it could have been him trying to test the waters or draw suspicion towards me.

My entire response to this was "but how did his read on you develop?" but I think you're already searching for agendas so I don't really have anything of value to add. yeah. Arthur's trajectory reads fake but he's not overtly bleeding obvscum everywhere by any stretch. That said, I think there's a good deal of townier players in this plist which generally means a slot I *don't* townread is more likely to be scum (unless my reads suck).

this sets off bells, seems like you're trying to fill space up with words and generally flippantly pocketing satisfaction who i think is pretty townie so far
VOTE: the worst

DIE MAFIA SCUM!!

Ahhh, yes. It wouldn't be a shelly game without her tunneling the first person who criticized her on day 1 and then stopping at nothing to get that person 'limmed. Hello, shelly, welcome to Feryland.

ok not quoting so thread looks less cluttered

tbh I kinda vibe with the fact that satis might be IIoA (info instead of analysis) since much of their content is prodding people and asking questions
but the readslist was pretty good
and willing to step back and realise satis-arthur may be TvT reads townie
so townlean on this slot

I'm not sure where I sit on Satisfaction. I'm going to be honest, I haven't been vibing with the way he's been acting since getting off of E-1. I don't think what he's doing is really IIoA... he's still generating additional content (whereas I usually think of IIoA being a regurgitation of already known facts) but it's also not doing much in the way of solving. I also don't like that he started acting like conftown after I backed off at E-1.

***

@the worst: I don't think shelly's crazy-aggressive, tunneling play is AI. I think that's just her playstyle, and we'll have to work around it. As things are, the slot feels null to me.

@shellyc: I don't know if I see the worst as scum here. He seems to be putting in pretty good effort to solve.

If you two just duke it out here, it's going to be hard to tell if it's TvT or not. So far it kind of just feels like a slapfight. There are definitely more interesting targets, IMO, and if you two just tunnel each other we could miss out on some dank analysis.

[Mundivore]

I have a question for town!Arthur. How much do you think your scum read on me is due to the effect of OMGUS—essentially, reading me as scum because I'm putting voting pressure on the one person you know is definitely town—and how much do you think can be attributed to external factors? Other than my vote on you, which you don't like, why do you think that I am scum?

Had to dig into the logs to find the question, so would be nice if you could quote the question next time.

I admit that you voting for me in that way was a big part of me scumreading you. I still feel like that's a reasonable view to have. You didn't even cite any reasons and naked voted. Later you asked Redados to explain his reasoning for voting me, even though you're the one who should've had that reasoning first. Barring your vote, I also felt that your play throughout had been fluffy and inactive. Until the post where I scumread you, you had no real content to read off.

In response to the wagon analysis btw, I do somewhat agree that one guy on the wagon could be scum. However I think you're overreading it. There are 9 guys here and only 3 on the wagon. Aren't the odds more against a scum on the wagon that for?
Also the scum team analysis. It looks a lot like trying to second-guess the scum and I don't see any value in it right now.

Sorry, Arthur, I missed this in the excitement of the last few days.

There were four people on that Satisfaction wagon, and the wagon formed very quickly. Odds are absolutely in favor of there being at least one scum among myself, you, Egix, and NK.

Do you have any comment on the shelly v. the worst 1v1?

[Mundivore]

because I've got to say that Arthur is still my favorite scumread. My vibe right now is 'scum taking advantage of new chaos waiting for the air around them to clear before taking any new actions.' Very low activity over the last day or two.

[Mundivore]

@the worst: I don't think shelly's crazy-aggressive, tunneling play is AI. I think that's just her playstyle, and we'll have to work around it. As things are, the slot feels null to me.

@shellyc: I don't know if I see the worst as scum here. He seems to be putting in pretty good effort to solve.

If you two just duke it out here, it's going to be hard to tell if it's TvT or not. So far it kind of just feels like a slapfight. There are definitely more interesting targets, IMO, and if you two just tunnel each other we could miss out on some dank analysis.

Idk, this whole section feels... off? Pockety? Middleman-ish? The usage of the word "dank" in particular gives it a very "hey fellow kids" sort of vibe.

Hello, fellow town!

[Mundivore]

it means that nk15 feels they are ignored because mundivore thinks me + worst are town

I think the worst is town. I'm not 100% on you being town, but I'd put it more likely than not.

TW has agreed with everything I’ve said since he replaced in and he townreads me right off the bat. That makes me nervous. I’m looking forward to some constructive disagreement.

Mundivore’s assessment of Noraa’s playstyle is interesting to me. Either they didn’t see the things I saw in Doggos, we just have a disagreement about her, or... I’ve been kicking around the thought that maybe Mundivore is supporting the squeaky clean naive town image that Noraa cultivates. Is Mundivore-Noraa/TW a viable team? I haven’t looked into it closely yet.

That said, Mundivore was one of my earliest town leans and I generally have been sorting your slot and theirs as town throughout the game. If Mundivore is scum they aren’t doing the kinds of things that raise my eyebrows.

I think the most likely scenario is that Noraa’s freakout and subsequent departure was that of a bored townie.

I'm not saying that Noraa didn't go for some nice mislead plays. She had very good AtE. I just don't think that she has a

playstyle.

I don't think her prancing fluff-post style is a cultivated and conscious choice yet, as opposed to her just feeling things out and playing the best she can. As to why she subbed out, I

think

Noraa just subbed out because she was about to start another game, and didn't want too many on her hands. I know I've had enough trouble as it is keeping up with both thread. I'm not of a meta person much myself (I never read games I haven't played in), but of what I read of her, I don't think she'd sub out if she were scum. She did seem to quite enjoy it in Doggos.

yay you read games!

also repping out of boredom bans you from joining the queue

I like mundivore for town, but @mundivore do you have any offsite scumgames or anything?

Hmm... not really any that you can read. I wouldn't be able to find them, it's been at least five years.

[Mundivore]

VOTE: shelly this is actually just shelly's scumgame again

I call omgus

were my walls and walls of quotes and catch up not townie enough?

Nope! Just blatant OMGUS from scumworst here, and obviously trying to get rid of rusty town!me. I can't believe it worsty, let me enjoy feryland instead of limbaiting me

This looks like a complaint coming from scum. "Why am I not townread for all that effort?" instead of attacking the reasons. In fact, I don't see a towny reason for saying this.
VOTE: Shelly

It seems that people have not understood what I said. I said I don't see a towny reason for saying that.

If there is no towny reason for an action, then that person performing the action IS SCUM.

So, either refute my argument or vote shellyc.

I think shelly is the sort to play a scummy town game to improve the potency of her scum games.

That said, if we can't get an Arthur or Satisfaction elim today, I'd be happy with the shelly elim. Regardless of whether she's scum or town, I feel like she's going to be a distracting feature who isn't fond of cooperating.

[Mundivore]

VOTE: shellyc

Woah, deja vu.

Anyway, my preferred elim order is Arthur > Satisfaction > shelly. Making this vote because the Arthur wagon doesn't seem to be attracting additional voters, and there isn't much time left in the day. No town elim is bad news bears.

[Mundivore]

mundivore can you explain further your read on satis as they're pretty townie

worsty isnt happening so VOTE: Arthur

bluebells I want a readslist asap

I think Satisfaction is probably town, but I think NK15 had good points with their initial scumcase against him—I find it particularly frustrating the way Satisfaction started acting like conftown the second he got off of E-1. Main reason I'd go for a Satisfaction elim is that it's an information dense elim... there was a lot of interesting interaction in that early Satisfaction wagon, and getting to see his role card would tell us a lot about the alignments of other people.

[Mundivore]

I mean, any elim is bad if you assume that the player is town lmao. If it gives the town more info, it's a mitigating factor compared to if it's a miselim on a rando (b/c scum already have all the information).

In any case, my preference for a Satisfaction elim is barely higher than my preference for a shellyc elim. However, Arthur elim looks pretty viable with shelly joining the wagon and you and Satisfaction both expressing interest.

VOTE: Arthur to

E-2

(AND I COUNTED TWO OR THREE TIMES AND I'M PRETTY SURE THAT'S RIGHT)

pedit: oh look I was right, ty mod

[Mundivore]

VOTE: the worst

Current preferred lim order is the worst = satisfaction > Redados.

[Mundivore]

To me, Bluebell just seems like the next easy elimination with little demonstrated scummy intent. Does anybody have an actual case? I’d rather not just do this again.

This is exactly why I'm pushing for the worst.

tw pushed super aggressively onto shellyc yesterday, and happily/contentedly switched to Arthur when he couldn't get his way. Now Day 2 starts, and his immediate target, rather than anyone who interacted with the wagons yesterday, is simply the fluff-target.

[Mundivore]

it's almost as if I vote people I scumread at deadline and people I nullread while there's time left. wild.

Fair enough. No need to get snitty.

[Mundivore]

Sorry I haven't been posting. I've been kinda lurking—it's hard to keep up with two threads at once, I regret being so aggressive with my game-joining.

the worst. Please explain to me why exactly you turned from Bluebell to Satisfaction so quickly?

You voted for your null-read presumably to learn more about her. But all you learned from Bluebell was her scum-reads, and then you shrugged and went along with it.

I don't usually find putting someone at E-1 to be a scummy trait, since it can yield more information. But the way in which you went about it was very aggressive.

[Mundivore]

i'm kinda surprised nk15 dropped his intense read that i was >:{ maliciously leading newbies astray >:{ with my mechanical blonde moment. i don't really get what he's doing here but i still think he believed his scumcase on sati on d1.

It's just that I still believe in the case against satisfaction, with Arthur flipping green.
At this point we need to eliminate Satisfaction, and upon their red flip... probably the worst.

it occurred to me as well but i still think he reads sincere, just like, mind mendingly confbiased. if he doesn't have any other reads his alignment will get really obvious when one/both of us flip, assuming we're t/t.

This could be very well scum talking about their partner.
The worst posted this near the end of Day 1 and then...

VOTE: Satisfaction

That's E-1.

this?

The scumteam is Satisfaction/the worst.

No chance. No scum worth their salt would aggressively put their scumbuddy at E-1 at the start of a very quiet Day 2.

[Mundivore]

It just feels like such an unnecessary risk. IDK, maybe I've just been playing so much Among Us lately that it's warping my perception of what's good or not in Mafia.

Can I get town games and scum games from these people? I want to do some reading.
-Mundivore
-the worst
-Egix
-Not Known 15

You have played in all of the games which I can send you for reading.

[Mundivore]

Still reading.

It just feels like such an unnecessary risk. IDK, maybe I've just been playing so much Among Us lately that it's warping my perception of what's good or not in Mafia.

Not sure how you've been playing, but if you play in the way where you don't see whether kicked people were the imposter, then you don't get any towncred for bussing. Totally different dynamic.

Also, I feel like having two imposters in Among Us is more powerful than having two mafia in Mafia because of the double kill? So there's less incentive to bus.

You have played in all of the games which I can send you for reading.

Ah, because of your join date I assumed you had more games. That's fair. Can you talk me through a scum!Mundivore mindset?

Good points.

Also, I don't think I could honestly talk you through my scum mindset. A) I haven't been scum in so long that I would probably now play completely differently; B) Honestly sharing the differences between your town and scum play on a public forum seems ill-advised.

I will say that I am a big fan of

convergent play:

strategies which are strong no matter the role you're in. They don't weaken my town game very much, and significantly increase my potency as scum or PR. Primarily, I like to play towards the middle of the field in the scummy plays versus town plays where I can.

Mundivore posted this before I started my shelly/TW witch hunt and shelly's claim (emphasis mine):

I mean, any elim is bad if you assume that the player is town lmao. If it gives the town more info, it's a mitigating factor compared to if it's a miselim on a rando (b/c scum already have all the information).

In any case,

my preference for a Satisfaction elim is barely higher than my preference for a shellyc elim. However, Arthur elim looks pretty viable

with shelly joining the wagon and you and Satisfaction both expressing interest.

VOTE: Arthur to

E-2

(AND I COUNTED TWO OR THREE TIMES AND I'M PRETTY SURE THAT'S RIGHT)

pedit: oh look I was right, ty mod

Mundivore switched off of shelly and on to Arthur's fatal wagon behind Bluebell and shelly.

Notice that Mundivore wants to eliminate me, or shelly. Arthur was their third choice.

@Mundivore: Why did you not move back on to shelly once you saw it picking up steam?

I was very low activity at the time. By the time I was really back in the swing of things, shelly had claimed.

I feel like Not Known has spent most of this game tunneled on me and/or making weird cases against me.

Example: when I was deep into my assault on shelly & tw...

At this point we need to eliminate Satisfaction, and upon their red flip... probably the worst.

it occurred to me as well but i still think he

{Satisfaction}

reads sincere, just like, mind mendingly confbiased. if he doesn't have any other reads his alignment will get really obvious when one/both of us flip, assuming we're t/t.

This could be very well scum talking about their partner.

So in this scenario, scum!me was accusing town!shelly and scum!tw of bussing each other but in fact that was a double bluff because I was really bussing tw?

Why? Scum!me could have just as easily left TW out of my case and only pressed shelly without pinning my supposed scum partner in the spotlight.

I mean, that whole argument dissolves into WIFOM. The fact that it's a poor play for scum, in a game of debate and social reasoning, comes around to make it a strong play, which makes it a poor play, et cetera et cetera. It's all about who can make the best ethos/pathos case on arguments like that, because the logos is totally a wash. The only good reason for that interaction between scum is if you believe you can make a strong case for that interaction not being scummy. The only bad reason for that interaction between scum is if you don't believe it's a strong case. In the end, it's NAI.

For what it's worth, I'm town-lean on NK15. Their main behavior this game has been tunneling Satisfaction, and tunneling is usually a town behavior.

[Mundivore]

Intent to hammer NK15. I don't intend to let town not get a kill.

[Mundivore]

I would be willing to switch to the worst if people are around, though.

[Mundivore]

NK15 is only confirmable town if we get a scum roleblocker flip, otherwise he's essentially a vt claim. he's also claiming to have been blocked last night.

obviously if there are any ccs just lolhammer.

I have vertigo so don't really feel like doing any critical thinking. I'll be around a bunch before deadline.

This is just a super weird. This is plausible fakeclaim by scum!NK, but consider the world of town!NK. Scum would have to be

so

incredibly bold to let a Tracker through another night. We shouldn't elim NK here with no counterclaims, we should just pick a new target. The big difference between scum!NK world and town!NK world is that scum!NK always makes it through the night where town!NK often doesn't.

@Not Known, if you got no result from Satisfaction, why did you continue tunnelling Day 2?

[Mundivore]

I would rather not switch to me.

[Mundivore]

I didn't get any sleep last night... I'll help make sure an elim happens, but I'm honestly lost. It feels like I'm swimming through molasses.

[Mundivore]

It's almost like the chance of the town tracker being blocked on n1 with an outed jk is PHENOMENALLY LOW or something!

I mean, yeah, it is kind of ridiculous. Which is why I'm down for the NK15 elim even if I would normally like to leave it for a day.

[Mundivore]

I think there's decent odds that this is a fakeclaim that just got a bit too greedy with trying to deny town info (says it was blocked to limit town knowledge)?

Jailkeeper + Tracker implies that there is a Roleblocker. The world in which the Roleblocker

doesn't

target the Jailkeeper is... really exceptionally greedy by scum. The world where shelly successfully blocks the kill at night is basically auto-lose for scum. Small chances of

instantly losing

are generally not worth taking. So we assume that in this world Roleblocker blocks shelly... but then there's nobody to block NK15 on Night 1.

I think the worst v. NK15 is

definitely

TvS.

[Mundivore]

I think the scenario Not Known is describing looks like this:

1. Shelly claims JK
   
2. Arthur flips green.
3. Shelly gets blocked by the Roleblocker so she can't luck into jailing her would-be killer.
4. Tracker!NK tracks me--his top scum read. He doesn't need to track Shelly because there was no counterclaim and he knows the setup includes JK.
5. Shelly puts Tracker!NK in jail blocking him. NK reminded her that she was the likely night kill target so she would have to lock up scum to save herself. TW was her obvious scum read so scum!TW probably wouldn't make the deathblow, so she went for another.
6. Shelly gets stabbed.

Is this the scenario you are commenting on @TW?

I think you're right, I'm just trying to follow this all the way out to make sure.

this situation is impossible, though. If shelly got roleblocked, then shelly couldn't have jailed NK15.

[Mundivore]

there are two options:

either NK15 is telling the truth, in which case scum

did not

[i/]

roleblock shelly and were willing to take a decent chance that they'd miss a night kill

and

get one of their members outed on Night 1.

NK15 is lying, in which case they're scum.

I've gone from dubious to pretty sold on this.

[Mundivore]

intent to hammer

[Mundivore]

I've brewed myself a pot of tea to wake myself up before I have to do some driving on 0 hours of sleep. I'm going to hammer when I'm done with it.

[Mundivore]

I think there's decent odds that this is a fakeclaim that just got a bit too greedy with trying to deny town info (says it was blocked to limit town knowledge)?

Jailkeeper + Tracker implies that there is a Roleblocker. The world in which the Roleblocker

doesn't

target the Jailkeeper is... really exceptionally greedy by scum. The world where shelly successfully blocks the kill at night is basically auto-lose for scum. Small chances of

instantly losing

are generally not worth taking. So we assume that in this world Roleblocker blocks shelly... but then there's nobody to block NK15 on Night 1.

I think the worst v. NK15 is

definitely

TvS.

Given its a mechanical dispute and NK15 is the only one claiming mechanical privilege id actually say calling TvS is pretty greedy. If we're in col. C I would certainly bus nk15 if he slipped up and made this claim. I think what you want to say is that you think this makes NK15 scum and possibly by extension believe that I believe this?

Mostly, I mean to say that you're clear if NK flips scum.

However, if NK flips town, you will have been the prime driver behind the wagon that got shelly's claim, the wagon that miselim'd Arthur, and the wagon that miselim'd NK. Combined with the fact that scum!worst

does

have the mechanical privilege of knowing the position that NK is in and how fishy of a claim PR!NK would have to make, I'd say that a green flip on NK leaves you as my strongest scumread by a good measure.

[Mundivore]

I can't deny the world of VT!worst, though. Ough, this is a much less clear-cut game than Doggos was, every elim that game was pretty deterministic.

[Mundivore]

Alrighty. VOTE: Not Known 15

[Mundivore]

Hm. I wonder why that was a Satisfaction NK, instead of me or the worst.

[Mundivore]

I think it's either Egix or Bluebell, leaning pretty strongly towards Bluebell.

I think Red and the worst are confirmed town, that wagon on NK15 was super spontaneous and I don't honestly think scum would join it that quickly.

I don't think it's likely to be Egix, because Egix put some early and unnecessary pressure on NK. Which kind of just leaves Bluebell? Notably, she was part of the Arthur wagon and

not

part of the NK wagon.

[Mundivore]

Hm. I wonder why that was a Satisfaction NK, instead of me or the worst.

I don't get why you would think you would die.

But yes, it is skeeving me out a little bit that the scum would kill the less experienced player first between Satis and tw, considering that I would say they were both the same level of spewed clear.

The hammer is a little exonerating? But yeah, there's still a good enough scum-case for me.

It makes me wonder if scum's fishing for PRs? IDK, due to NK's tracker claim I was reading the game as C2, but A2 and B2 are possible. In either of those cases, kudos to the PR for not CC'ing there.

[Mundivore]

Hm. Yeah, I just don't see how it's not just Bluebell or Egix. Since town can afford one miselim at this point, we just go for the scummier one and then grab the other?

VOTE: Bluebell

[Mundivore]

Hm. Yeah, I just don't see how it's not just Bluebell or Egix. Since town can afford one miselim at this point, we just go for the scummier one and then grab the other?

VOTE: Bluebell

In a hurry, huh?

My mystical "OhMaGUS" mark...
VOTE: Mundivore

That's... a marked break from character.

[Mundivore]

NAI though. VT can totally get mad if they think they're getting targeted, they're the only person they know for sure is town.

[Mundivore]

Does scum!Bluebell nightkill Satisfaction?

I presume you mean to imply that she would have killed tw instead? I mean, I can imagine NK15 advising her on who to kill before they died.

I took it to mean that Red was wondering if there was a particularly good reason that Bluebell had to target Satisfaction in particular. Which, there isn't

especially.

I suppose that of the people who have pressured Blue for her whimsy and non-contribution, the worst was the most severe, and Satisfaction the second-most. Maybe scum!Bluebell thinks it's too risky to try, that killing the person most critical of her will stand out? IDK.

NAI though. VT can totally get mad if they think they're getting targeted, they're the only person they know for sure is town.

To try and put it another way, the impression that it gave me was that she felt like her survival was imperative.

Yeah, I feel it. I still have my guns set on Blue for today.

The fact that nobody's thought up a good reason to declare intent to hammer, in my eyes, makes it quite likely scum is either on the Bluebell wagon or the subject of the Bluebell wagon. Scum wins by making miselims happen. If this is a miselim, then it's a pretty good one. Bluebell hasn't done much to exonerate herself. The fact that scum

hasn't

tried to make anything happen yet on this slow day indicates to me that they're already doing everything that they can.

[Mundivore]

Red readings for....

Redados: no one else seriously suspects him a single time. How is this possible? Everyone else has been suspected. Is his persona too town to be true?

Red

could

be scum, but that wagon was way too fast yesterday. I don't think scum would do that.

[Mundivore]

No problem.

I'm SR on Egix, TR on Red.

[Mundivore]

So I suppose that if I'm scumread by both players, it's my job to make myself a towncase, or else the town loses?

[Mundivore]

Mundivore's voting:

Day one:

-Mundivore was on initial

Satisfaction

E-1 wagon
-Mundivore was on

ArthurConyl

E-1 wagon
-Mundivore did NOT force

Shelly

to claim - Towncred
-Mundivore was on final

ArthurConyl

wagon

Day two:

-Mundivore had their vote on

the worst

all day Day Two
-Mundivore hammered

NK15

-Towncred, but they specifically say that the intent to hammer is to get a kill and that they would be willing to switch to

the worst

if people are around. That gets rid of the oomph.

Day three:

-First vote on

Bluebell

(although a bunch of people were scumreading Bluebell at this point)

I guess I would ask Mundivore that you talk me through your thought process here. Looking strictly at the votes, this doesn't look great.

I mean, if we're going strictly by votes, I'd say the best argument to my favor was that I convinced Satisfaction to join the Not Known wagon. There's not much reason for scum to do that, actively convincing a townie onto a scumwagon goes a bit beyond reasonable accumulation of town-cred. It's also a bit of a misrepresentation of my position to say that I was reluctant on NK15—I was quite enthusiastic after getting a night of sleep and really thinking about the fakeclaim.

Also, if you're thinking about votes? Egix claimed intent to hammer D2, but backed off in response to a poor fakeclaim. In the end, we got the D2 elim—on scum!—without Egix's help.

[Mundivore]

Although, I'm uncertain if it's more the case that Egix backed off or that Egix just wasn't there, in fairness.

Your case just gives me all kind of sus vibes, Red. I think it's just OMGUS-reflex, though, since I'm the only person who's conftown to me and because I feel like you're misrepresenting my position.

Overwhelming evidence still says you're town. Putting NK at E-1 on D2 without particularly intense pressure on them is pretty exonerating, and you stayed on the wagon even after the fakeclaim, which I also find to be fairly exonerating.

Also, in retrospect:

NK15 claims in response to Egix saying that he's willing to hammer. NK then hard-accuses the worst in response to his asking for him to claim—but the worst is asking for a claim before a hammer, which is... standard? And he didn't have control over the prospective hammer. Egix did. Egix was the person who had the real power to force a claim, but NK accuses the worst instead. Why not the person with the actual power to force a claim?

If Egix is the scumbuddy, then that question becomes a lot clearer.

Not Known strikes me as very by-the-books low-activity opportunistic scum, not the sort to take gambits. NK15 has pressured you (Red). NK15 has accused both you and me of being scum. If you agree with my character read of NK15 (which tbh isn't very strong, so you don't have to), then that exonerates both of us.

[Mundivore]

I simply don't see how it could be anyone other than Egix from this position. If this is Red, then I think you earned it. But I'm all in, and I'm out of lines.

VOTE: Egix96

[Mundivore]

Mundivore - it is always a pleasure to play with you. Being universally scumread in limlo is never fun regardless of alignment and you did a good job keeping up a good attitude.

Yeah, you earned that win. I had a hunch based off of how you started really misrepresenting what I was saying? The way that you bussed NK was very convincing to me.

[Mundivore]

*very convincing to me though.

I should probably be following my intuition more on these games.